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#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC After an epic bull market first half, Bitcoin currently stands at a very delicate technical crossroads. By linking two core indicators—volatility (Garman-Klass) and derivatives open interest—a clear market picture emerges: prices remain firm at high levels, but volatility continues to contract, while contract open interest has dropped to a six-month low. This "low volatility + low open interest" resonance often signals that a sharp market shift is brewing. 1. Volatility contraction: "Accumulation" during high-level sideways movement From the Garman-Klass realized volatility chart, Bitcoin has seen a significant reduction in extreme event frequency after approaching historical highs, entering a "time for space" consolidation phase. The dense yellow "low volatility" markers in the chart indicate that the tug-of-war between bulls and bears at high levels is calming down. Typically, sustained volatility contraction is a precursor to a market shift. The current price holding firm at high levels shows resilience in the spot underlying buy-side; meanwhile, shrinking volatility means positions are stabilizing, and the market is digesting previous gains while awaiting new macro catalysts. 2. New low in open interest: the deep game of "price up, open interest down" Synchronous with volatility contraction is the "price up, open interest down" divergence revealed by Glassnode data. Bitcoin price rebounded to $80K+ highs since late September, but BTC-denominated contract open interest has steadily declined, reaching the lowest point since March (breaking below 4This is the RSI of $BTC on the 6-hour timeframe. You see, it’s converging around the 50 average level. That means there’s a 50% chance of going up and a 50% chance of going down. Trading right here could lead to liquidation or hitting stop-loss due to long candle wicks. Therefore:
1. Wait to see which direction the price will break out.
2. Plan to buy or sell far away at the two zones of support and resistance, which are 81k and 87k respectively.After the US August PCE data came in below expectations, Bitcoin briefly surged to $85,598, making it seem like it was about to break through. However, it quickly fell back to around $83,600. As of 8:15 AM, it was quoted at $83,680, down slightly by 0.13% over 24 hours.
Why the rise and fall? The core contradiction remains macroeconomic. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to around 5.28%, and the high long-term interest rates directly suppress risk asset valuations. Although PCE has cooled down, the core PCE year-on-year is still 3.0%, far from the Fed's 2% target, and the expectation of rate cuts is not so certain.
There is also an interesting contrast in the capital side: retail investors are watching, while whales and institutions are accelerating accumulation. In the past 10 days, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 41,025 BTC. Strategy also spent $142.7 million to add 1,665 BTC. ETF weekly inflows reached $2.4 billion, the highest since last October.
My personal judgment: in the short term, expect oscillation in the $82,600–$85,600 range, with $85,599 as the recent key resistance level. But with whales accumulating so aggressively, once ETF funds continue to flow in and circulating supply tightens, a breakout may be closer than everyone thinks. Do not chase the highs; wait for the signal. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $CT premium is too high!! Brothers going long must set stop losses! Because it has no real value at all! There are no actual positive factors; it's all the personal sentiment of the manipulators pumping the price! Of course, brothers going short must keep their positions small! Don't be like me! #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 #美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $ETH rebound encounters selling pressure above, what will Ethereum rely on for the next breakthrough?
OKX spot 24-hour range is about 2,658—2,739, with a turnover of about 313 million USDT, and the current price is in the middle of the range. Price recovery requires continuous support from spot buying; if it is only driven by contract leverage, it is more likely to fall back after a surge. Network activity and fee rebound are the key to whether mid-term demand can improve.
If the 1-hour chart shows volume and stabilizes above 2,739 and holds after a pullback, I will increase my judgment for continued upward movement; if it falls below 2,658 and the rebound volume shrinks, then be cautious of the range shifting downward first. Seeing that Anthropic signed an $84.5 billion computing power agreement with SpaceX, the group chat started hyping that the AI industry chain is about to take off again.
To look on the bright side, an order of this scale for computing power indicates that the demand for large AI models is genuinely strong, not just relying on financing stories as before. The entire computing power industry chain, from chips to servers, indeed has solid demand support.
But on the flip side, these AI companies are signing long-term orders worth hundreds of billions to trillions, and no one can be sure how much will actually be fulfilled according to the contracts. If the commercialization of large models falls behind, these huge contracts might just remain on paper, which may not be a real positive for related AI concept coins.
My personal view is that the long-term logic for AI is sound, but the market immediately pumping prices upon seeing news of hundreds of billions somewhat prematurely prices in expectations for several years ahead.
Everyone should pay close attention to the actual delivery and implementation of these computing power orders later on, and not just rush in based on contract amounts. What do you think about these trillion-level long-term computing power orders? Are they solid demand for the AI industry chain, or are expectations being overdrawn prematurely? Let's chat in the comments.
$BTC
#Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议 SOL The lowest point of this bear market cycle is at 60, and the second peak of the previous bull market double top was 253.49. Calculating with a 0.382 retracement, 60 + (253.49 - 60) * 0.382 is approximately 133.9, meaning the range from 133 to 134 is the first major Fibonacci level and currently the first relatively strong resistance.
Once it can stabilize above this level and break through recently, the upward space will open layer by layer, the price base will gradually rise, and the short-term volatility rhythm will also increase, naturally making the profit potential more obvious. There's no need to rush near the resistance level; it's not too late to follow after it stabilizes and confirms.
$SOL#AnthropicSpaceX$84.5B Anthropic's IPO story may be turning into a race between revenue and compute costs 👀
Up to $84.5B in SpaceX-related agreements sounds huge, but the bigger number is $518B in long-term infrastructure commitments.
What caught my attention is the 90-day exit option on many deals. That flexibility matters when 2025 revenue was just $4.59B.
AI growth needs compute. But if infrastructure spending keeps outrunning revenue, scale itself could become the biggest risk.$BTC
Viewpoint of this ID
BTC has been building a consolidation zone since the low of 82563, surged to 85649.95, then pulled back, returning to the consolidation range, representing a shakeout and rest after consolidation expansion. The one-time volume from the impulse rally has been released; bulls need to accumulate strength again.
Entry: Wait for a minor-level pullback to form a bullish divergence + bottom fractal, then buy near the consolidation support (ZD); if volume breaks through the consolidation resistance (ZG), wait for a retest without breaking below ZG before attempting a third buy.
Stop loss: Place defense below the consolidation support (ZD); breaking below ZD invalidates the current-level consolidation structure.
Chan Theory Structure
The purple box marks the consolidation at this level, with ZG≈84000 and ZD≈83000. Starting from 82563, multiple minor-level consolidations formed the consolidation zone. Then a surge created a high at 85649.95, but no new consolidation was formed; the price pulled back into the consolidation, forming an expanded consolidation. The key bottom line is 82563; to the upside, the price needs to hold above ZG to have a chance to challenge previous highs.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
At the surge to 85649.95, volume spiked instantly, indicating concentrated short-term demand. However, volume quickly faded after the rally, unable to sustain new highs, followed by a long bearish candle and a pullback, with supply entering—this is a classic sign of a rally stalling at highs. During the pullback, volume is less than the peak during the rally, with no panic selling, indicating a shakeout phase. Currently, bulls and bears are balanced within the consolidation, with no clear accumulation or distribution signals.
Key Points to Watch
The market is oscillating within the consolidation box, with 85649.95 as strong resistance. Only trade waves within the consolidation; do not chase rebounds. Focus on waiting for minor-level bullish divergence signals. [Fed Hawkish Signals Resurface]
🚨 Latest news: Fed officials signal the possibility of another rate hike in 2026.
Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.30% at one point, with the high interest rate environment continuing to suppress risk assets.
📉 For BTC/ETH/SOL: short-term bearish
🟢 ETF funds remain supportive
Key focus: US employment data on Friday.
In short: High interest rate pressure persists; whether ETF buying can withstand macro pressure will determine the short-term direction.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 10.1 BTC Today Silk Road
$BTC rebound 842-846 to enter short positions accordingly, target 851, first target 833, second target 824
Pullback near 830 to stabilize, lightly buy calls to test, target 826, target 838
BTC surged to 85632 yesterday then faced pressure and fell back, closing with a long upper shadow, call positions lost momentum after attack. Overall biased towards a downward consolidation, the main trend favors short positions, but short-term pullbacks to support will have corrective rebounds, do not blindly short.
Do not blindly chase shorts during the decline, patiently wait for the rebound to the resistance zone before entering accordingly.
842-846 is today's key resistance; if rebound meets resistance, enter short positions; once volume breaks above 85632, resistance is broken, abandon short position strategy immediately.
There is short-term support near 830; if pullback stops falling and stabilizes, lightly buy calls to test. Short-term call positions are counter-trend rebounds, only capture small waves, quick in and out.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $SOON Typical "epic short squeeze" rally! A 160% surge in 7 days. Although extremely overbought in the short term, the spot main force is aggressively accumulating in the long cycle, which is fundamentally different from a pure zeroing scenario. Short-term observation is advised; caution is wise, everyone.
RSI has long been severely overbought. The strong resistance above is at $0.55, and short-term support lies between $0.45-$0.48.
Long-short ratio: retail investors are missing out/shorting, while large holders are moderate (extreme contrast).
OKX retail long-short ratio is only 0.66 (extremely bearish or missing out), Binance retail is 0.9497 (balanced).
Large holder count long-short ratio is 0.8119, and large holder position long-short ratio is 1.0757.
Large holders are biased long but not extremely fervent.
Fundamentals (hardcore support):
Backed by top institutions including the Chairman of the Solana Foundation, co-founder of Solana Labs, and head of Coinbase Ventures.
The project plans to burn 3% of tokens (30 million) and has locked 35.97 million SOON.
Although there was a negative unlock of 30 million tokens previously, now the funds have chosen a direction with a violent surge.
$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Closed position, 10x full position. After holding for about 18 days, captured approximately a 4.2% increase in coin price. With 10x leverage, the realized return reached +37.13%, pocketing 58 ETH. The maximum position size was 1,953 ETH, but the closed amount was 1,562 ETH, indicating a strategy of taking profits in batches.
The BTC trade was even more aggressive: opened long at 82,160, closed at 83,582 on 9/30, held for 9 days with only a 1.7% price increase, amplified 10x to +16.13%, pocketing 262,417 U; full position of 198 BTC, exited immediately after closing. SOL opened long at 113.16 on 9/18, closed at 114.67 on 9/24, 6 days with minimal volatility, leveraged 10x on a position of over 100,000 coins to earn +154,052 U. The key is not perfect timing, but choosing mainstream coins, giving time, and exiting partially or fully after profits, avoiding turning unrealized gains into gambling.
Currently, BTC is consolidating between 82k-84k, ETH between 2.6k-2.7k, SOL faces resistance at 117-122, with macro PCE/US bonds still pressuring. Don’t get carried away by these cases. Leverage should only be based on how much you can afford to lose; liquidation distance is always the top priority. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
The figure of 5.6% made me open my mortgage calculator again.
On September 29, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.6%, the highest since 2002. I stared at the screen for a long time, and my first reaction wasn’t the bond market, but the mortgage.
With long-term rates moving like this, it means the market is saying: money won’t be cheap for decades to come.
Strangely, short-term expectations have cooled down. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in October dropped from nearly 70% to about 50%. On one side, short-term rate hike expectations are falling; on the other, long-term yields are soaring to new highs—this kind of divergence itself is unsettling.
What concerns me more is another piece of data: by the end of 2025, hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash US Treasuries, accounting for 7% of tradable US Treasuries, a historic high. Many of these are highly leveraged basis trades.
To translate: there’s too much borrowed money piled up in the bond market. It’s fine as long as yields keep rising, but once volatility amplifies, these positions will be forced to liquidate, turning into a stampede. Selling pressure will surge, liquidity will dry up, and eventually, the impact won’t be limited to the bond market.
I’m not a hedge fund manager, just an ordinary investor. But I roughly understand one thing: 5.6% is not just a number; it’s a string pulled tighter and tighter. The other end of the string is connected to mortgages, corporate financing, stock valuations, and the assets in my account.
Before closing the market software, I glanced again at that yield curve. It’s steep, so steep it makes you uneasy.Woke up already stuck, hope to get unstuck.
These past two days I've been playing $SOON, mostly shorting, but I made some profit because the dog whales dumped a few times, and I got out.
Yesterday I saw it surge from 0.4 at night to 0.56, I couldn't help but go long, but woke up to see it at 0.49. I added a position this morning, now it's 0.5, hope my luck isn't this bad—every time I go long it dumps. Gotta believe in the power of belief, hope it pumps all day today.
Then yesterday I got into a new coin called $CT, it also dumped first then pumped. Damn, I got in halfway and got stuck opening a short, luckily I got out fast. Today it pumped again. These new coins these days all act the same: dump first, pump up, then dump hard again.
Right now I played AKE yesterday, shorted a bit, made 5u profit, this counts as a relatively successful short.
As for $ZEC, I want to go long but also don't want to. At this price, damn, I've been cut multiple times, up and down, I'm scared and might stop playing.
U coin hasn't gone above 0.18 for two weeks now, holding it for the second week. Forget it, don't want to think about it.
Happy National Day, genius traders, today you can sleep in. $HYPE: Short on the rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 90.40-90.80 range (near the Bollinger middle band and resistance level) and then enter short.
· The initial target is 88.80; if this level is effectively broken, then look for the previous low at 84.50; set stop loss above 91.00.
Core basis:
1. Moving average breakdown suppression: The 15-minute MA and Bollinger middle band (90.42) are sloping downward, price broke below this level and failed to rally back, establishing a short-term bearish pattern.
2. Bear trap pattern: After peaking at 91.84 and falling back, the rebound highs keep decreasing, which is a typical downtrend continuation pattern, making a direct breakout above the previous high highly unlikely.
3. Volume, price, and risk-reward ratio: The rebound shows decreasing volume, the decline shows increasing volume, and once the support at 88.87 breaks, a sell-off is likely. Using 91 as stop loss, aiming to break below 88.87 offers a very high risk-reward ratio.
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 500 Yuan Challenge to 100 Million｜Live Trading Record Sharing
Full performance publicly available on homepage
Day 7
Initial capital: 500 Yuan
Current account balance: 2213 Yuan
Family, the Great Demon King's 500 Yuan challenge to 100 million battle, today I lay my cards on the table and thoroughly analyze this market wave for you!
Many have asked me why I've been so steady lately; just look at the screenshots and you'll understand.
Two empty short positions, $PONS 3.5x short, BTC 10x short, all currently in floating profit.
First, about PONS:
Entry average price 0.5532, current mark price 0.5242, already floating profit of 18.32%.
This asset surged too aggressively earlier, clearly overheated in the short term. I identified the short opportunity for profit-taking and entered. The liquidation price is pulled up to 0.7277, with a solid safety buffer. Not afraid of small rebounds or shakeouts; as long as it doesn't break the strong resistance, the short logic remains unchanged.
Now for $BTC:
Short opened at 86382.6, current price 83463.7, floating profit of 33.79%.
Failed to break previous highs, bulls lack follow-through, liquidity retreats, naturally leading to a downward retracement. I didn't chase the rally but chose to stand on the side of trend reversal. The liquidation price is pulled out beyond 320,000, almost no short-term liquidation pressure. Holding steady is the key.
From 500 to 100 million, it's not about getting rich overnight with one bet, but about seizing every opportunity, controlling position size, and maintaining safety boundaries.
In a bull market, you don't have to only go long; after sharp rises, corrections offer great shorting opportunities.
The market always harvests those chasing rallies and panicking on dips, while the Great Demon King is the one who calmly lies in wait, letting the market play out according to his script.
Next, I will continue to hold and observe:
If BTC fails to hold the 83000 support, the short space can still open; once it strongly pulls back above 86400, I will accept the loss and exit, never stubbornly holding on.
As long as PONS doesn't firmly stand above 0.55 again, I will continue to hold this short position.
Step by step, the 500 Yuan challenge to 100 million is a long road, but every step I take is clear and deliberate.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
After the market close on September 30, Micron will release its earnings report. I still hold some Micron shares, so it's not like I'm not nervous.
The company's guidance is very attractive: revenue of 50 billion ± 1 billion, EPS $31 ± 1, gross margin about 86%. The market expects a bit more—revenue between 50.8 and 50.9 billion, EPS 31.5. Last quarter was only 41.46 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of over 20%. The demand from AI data centers is indeed pushing HBM and advanced DRAM forward; HBM4 has already been shipped in large volumes to major customers, and certified samples have been sent to several companies.
But the problem is, the market already knows these stories.
I'm not an analyst, just an ordinary retail investor. I only care about three things: first, can the 86% gross margin be maintained? No matter how hot HBM is, if DRAM and NAND prices start to soften, profits will be eaten away. Second, what will the guidance say for the next quarter? If it just meets expectations, the stock price may have already run up in advance. Third, the supply and demand outlook for fiscal year 2027—that's the key to deciding whether I keep holding or sell.
Earnings numbers are about the past; guidance is about the future. If Micron only delivers a "meets expectations" report this time, the market probably won't buy it. The AI storage narrative is very attractive, but the valuation has already gotten ahead.
We'll see after the market closes. I just hope it won't be another classic scenario of "earnings beat expectations, but the stock price drops."The sideways king is back again, rising from the ashes!
Today it surged to 0.07 again, but I don't believe it can break the previous high this time; I shorted directly at 0.07.
$CAP has rebounded from around 0.05 to 0.07025, up 8.39% in 24 hours.
It looks strong, but if you look closely, the previous high of 0.07902 is pressing down right above. This time it didn't even touch the previous high, clearly the volume can't keep up.
Looking at the MACD, DIF and DEA are sticking close near the zero line, and the red bars are pitifully short, showing a serious lack of upward momentum.
SAR is at 0.05344; although the price is still above it, the daily chart shows some fatigue after continuous rallies.
Now it’s facing resistance again near 0.07. This kind of rebound can’t hold at all; it looks more like a false breakout to lure buyers.
Why am I confident to short at this position? Because the logic hasn’t changed.
First, there is a lot of trapped positions above.
Between 0.075 and 0.079, how many people got trapped last time it surged?
Every time it rebounds here, it’s ruthlessly suppressed down.
Second, macro pressure is the nemesis of altcoins.
The non-farm payroll data will be released on October 2, and there’s a rate hike meeting at the end of October, with about a 50% chance of a hike.
In a high interest rate environment, Meme coins without real value support will face a stampede once funds withdraw.
So I decisively shorted at 0.07031; now around 0.07025 you can try a light position, set stop loss above 0.075, and target first 0.06; if it breaks down, it will head to 0.05.
Today is National Day, happy National Day to everyone.
If this trade profits, I can treat myself to hotpot tonight. Let the dog whales fall!
$BTC
$ETH
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 ETH rebounded after pulling back to $2,657 and has now climbed back near $2,680. The 24-hour trading volume is about $13.8B, and recently the high-leverage positions in the derivatives market have cooled down, easing short-term liquidation pressure. Next, focus on the $2,700–$2,740 range: 🟢 If volume breaks through and holds above $2,740, the upside potential may gradually open up 🟡 If resistance persists, watch for support near $2,650 🔴 Breaking below $2,625 indicates a clear weakening of the current bullish structure 🔥 Long Setup Entry: $2,665–$2,695 TP1: $2,735 TP2: $2,810 TP3: $2,900 TP4: $3,050 SL: $2,620 Currently, ETH seems to be consolidating just below a key resistance. Pay close attention to whether spot volume + OI + funding rates improve simultaneously. Don’t chase the price just because of a single bullish candle; waiting for breakout confirmation is more important. NFA / DYOR｜Manage position size and strictly control risk. #ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSDT #Crypto #OctoberRateHikeOdds #OctoberCrypto$ARB Dear all, the current price of ARB is 0.20279.
There are a total of 344 whale accounts, with a nominal long-short ratio of 69.81%, and the short whale positions are larger in scale. 192 long whales have an average opening price of 0.216728, currently at an unrealized loss; 152 short whales have an average opening price of 0.181159, also showing unrealized losses. Large holders on both long and short sides are stuck.
After the daily chart fell from the high point, it entered a consolidation phase with a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Both sides have trapped chips, making it difficult to have a clear one-sided trend in the short term.
Offensive level: 0.2140, Defensive level: 0.1910
In this double-sided squeeze situation, do not rush to bet on one side. Be patient for directional signals and keep positions conservative. Micron's numbers are out, no surge after hours.
Q4 revenue 54.23 billion, market expected 51.49 billion. Adjusted EPS $33.42, expected $31.83. Gross margin 87%, expected 86.2%. Next quarter guidance 61.5 billion, expected only 56.8 billion. Data center segment 18 billion, last quarter 11.5 billion, gross margin 90%.
The books are full. The stock price didn't continue to jump, slight fluctuation after hours.
I don't take this as a signal to open a crypto position. Orders remain, but that doesn't mean $BTC will follow tonight. Broadcom's last time also had strong books, guidance was off by two points and still got crushed first. This time there's not even a crush, indicating the term "beat expectations" has lost its value.
Did you move after hours? If yes, write the price. If not, write no movement. Replying "learned" I'll pretend I didn't see.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 83.4K is consolidating nearby, truly waiting for the closing answer. In the public market, $BTC is around 83.39K, down about 0.21% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of 83.64K and a low of 82.92K; $ETH is about 2,684, $SOL about 117.9, still relatively weak. My overall judgment is that the rebound has not yet upgraded into a trend; first watch the boundaries, not the sentiment.
I will regard a volume-increasing close above 83.6K as a short-term upward trigger, then observe whether the pullback holds; if it’s just a high spike followed by low volume, I won’t chase. The 82.9K level below is a clear invalidation point; if the close breaks below it, I will first reduce risk and wait to reassess after it recovers. For me, the key is not guessing the rise or fall, but letting volume and closing price prove the direction first.
Although the new window has long and short slogans and code signals, it lacks publicly confirmable common catalysts, so I don’t package them as opportunities. Are you more focused on the 83.6K breakout or the 82.9K support? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.$LAB OKX retail long-short ratio surged to 8.02, which is a bit too scary. Everyone is bullish, with so many trapped positions above, but the main funds probably won't give an opportunity. The overall trend continues downward.
This is a wild card and can't be judged by normal logic; a big rebound can easily occur, but the main direction is still down.
Small positions, low leverage, more margin, can hold on.
Long-short ratio: retail investors are extremely enthusiastic.
OKX retail long-short ratio surged to 8.02, Binance retail at 3.32. Retail investors are frantically bottom fishing.
For large holders: the number of large holders long-short ratio is 3.95, but the large holders' position long-short ratio is only 1.9956.
Continuing downward, testing $0.05
$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $FIL Filecoin recent network-level benefits (technical/ecological aspects)
1. NV28 Fire Horse mainnet upgrade (launching May 2026)
- Smart contracts can verify storage sector status in real time, supporting automatic renewal of storage contracts and storage guarantees;
- Supports Passkey (fingerprint/face/hardware key) login, no mnemonic needed;
- Optimizes Gas fee mechanism, the fee model better aligns with Filecoin block production logic, facilitating developers to build applications.
2. Solstice economic model proposal FIP-0118 has launched on the testnet.
- Adjusts block reward distribution mechanism, part of the rewards will flow to service coordinators who attract customers, aiming to stimulate paid storage orders;
- Simplifies the process for storage providers to obtain rewards, the community hopes this will increase real paid storage demand on the network.
3. ProPGF third batch of public product funding (May 2026)
- $2 million ecosystem funding to support underlying infrastructure, Web2 object storage, and Web3 application development, expanding ecosystem construction.
4. 2026 network strategy shift: from capacity expansion to driving paid storage demand
The official focus is no longer solely on increasing storage capacity, but on promoting real paid on-chain storage orders, improving storage providers' revenue, and expanding enterprise customers.
5. Institutional data storage implementation cases
Smithsonian Institution, MIT, Internet Archive, etc.The $CORE project team issued another statement that's purely misleading. The token is highly centralized, nodes experience vulnerabilities every now and then, and despite their initial claims of 100% security, the token has dropped 400 times in value. The token was also inflated, node vulnerabilities have occurred three times already, and they privately misappropriated 300 million community tokens to repay loans. The staged node vulnerability and token inflation for selling were exposed by the community.In April 2025, Ethereum dropped to a low of 1390
Unexpectedly, by August it broke through 4900 at its highest point
Throughout the entire rally, people found it hard to understand why Ethereum could rise
Just like every bull market start, the rise seemed to have no reason
This process serves as a great case to prove
That extreme bearishness and improved expectations can accelerate the rise
At that time, Ethereum's environment was very bad; the two-stage bull market in 2024 only reached 4000 before turning bearish, and its exchange rate consistently underperformed Bitcoin, hitting a new low since 2019
Ethereum was like a rat crossing the street, everyone wanted to beat it, and those who held ETH stubbornly were called E-guards
In 2024, E-guards looked down on Solana, considering it a playground for junk coins and air coins, but Solana kept breaking historical highs, while ETH seemed like a slowly zeroing public chain coin
In April 2025, ETH fell to a despairing price of 1390, a 60% drop, while Bitcoin only dropped 30% in the same period
But what was even more unexpected was that after May 8, in the following three days, Ethereum suddenly surged with three big bullish candles straight to 2700, causing a 1 billion scale short squeeze
This is a key logic: the more the market despises ETH, the more extreme the shorting becomes, and high-leverage short positions become denserOTC Position Analysis
From now on, daily OTC analysis will be added
Address 1 holds a huge position, its movements need to be monitored
Address 3 is a liquidity pool, with decent depth
Among them, 6 are marked as Active Whale Transfer, which are whale transfer wallets.
It is understood that behind them are 1336 wallets controlling 28.2% of the chips.
Yesterday's increase was 100%, indicating that the pump party and the chips are highly concentrated
From the trend, the early stage fell back to 0.03, yesterday's increase doubled, and it has already started. BTC was pumping hard… so I shorted it. 😮💨
And yeah, my hands were still shaking when I closed both trades.
I opened: • BTC short @ 85,380 → closed @ 84,170 | 30x
• BTC short @ 85,100 → closed @ 84,250 | 20x
Both targets hit. Over 60% profit secured. 🎯
People asked me:
“BTC is going up. Why the hell are you shorting?”
Because I wasn't trying to fight the trend. I was waiting for the moment when the trend started losing strength.
#DailyOrbit Big news in the US stock market!
AI storage demand is entering a longer-term cycle of supply and demand tightness.
Micron Technology CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated in the earnings call that the company has currently signed 26 long-term agreements, locking in about $150 billion in orders, and believes that the storage market supply and demand situation in 2027 and 2028 may be tighter than in 2026.
This sends an important signal: AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from GPUs to the storage side.
In the past, the market focused on Nvidia and computing chips, but with the continuous expansion of AI servers, large model training, and data centers, demand for storage such as HBM high-bandwidth memory and DRAM is becoming the new bottleneck.
Market logic is changing:
First, AI is not just a chip trend but an entire infrastructure cycle.
Second, after cyclical adjustments, the storage industry's supply and demand pattern is improving.
Third, long-term order locking means leading companies maintain high confidence in future AI demand.
Personal observation: If AI capital expenditure continues to expand, storage may become an important direction for the next phase of capital rotation. However, it is important to note that high expectations also mean the market will pay more attention to order fulfillment and profit growth.
Going forward, focus on Micron's performance guidance, HBM capacity expansion, and AI industry chain capital rotation opportunities. The Japanese bond market is being sold off: within one week, foreign holdings of Japanese bonds swung back and forth by ¥3.6 trillion, with a net sell-off of ¥1.34 trillion last week, after a net purchase of ¥2.24 trillion the week before.
This intense in-and-out movement indicates that overseas funds' confidence in Japanese bonds is weakening—Japan's central bank has long kept interest rates low, but now global yields are rising, so who would want to hold low-yielding Japanese bonds?
Japanese bonds are a key part of global carry trades; once they become unstable, the impact will transmit through the capital chain to various risk assets.
From a macro perspective, Japanese bonds deserve more attention than most crypto news.Bastion Trading, which holds nearly 10% of SkyAI's shares, has called for a reshuffle of the board of this Solana treasury company, pointing out that a $5 million related-party consulting fee in the first half of the year harmed shareholder interests and demanding an independent review of related-party transactions, not ruling out legal action. The controversy centers on the transparency of treasury fund usage and board independence, and if it escalates further, it may negatively impact confidence in the governance of treasury-type projects within the ecosystem.$SOL: Don't rush to bottom-fish! Would the main players let go of this $270 million "big fat meat" held by the bulls without taking a bite?
Folks, take my advice, the current market isn't about luck, it's about who runs faster. What's the iron rule of the market? Wherever there are more retail investors piled up, that's where the main players' cash machine is!
Look at this smart money data, wow, 410 big bullish holders are squeezed together, holding a heavy position of 275 million U, with an average cost of only 111.76. In contrast, the shorts only have 119 million U, which isn't even enough to fill the main players' teeth.
Let's think from their perspective: if you were the main player, which side would you attack?
Pulling up hard? At most, you'd just blow up those shorts, and now with funding rates turning negative, you'd even have to pay the shorts to hold the price up.
But if you smash down? The current price is 118, just a slight stomp to break the 116.93 support, heading straight to the 111.76 cost zone! Those $275 million bulls would instantly panic, triggering a chain stampede and stop-loss orders, with principal and profits all swallowed up by the main players in one gulp! The dog whales calculate this better than monkeys.
Look at the order flow, net selling (2.30M) far exceeds net buying (1.39M), the main players are quietly closing the net.
I won't be the cannon fodder in this $270 million; I've comfortably laid down my short position, waiting for the dog whales to smash the market and blow up the bulls, ready to feast!
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $ETH US spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of 2.81 million USD on September 29, ending the previous seven consecutive days of net inflows totaling approximately 850.8 million USD. The total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is about 17.792 billion USD, accounting for approximately 5.42% of Ethereum's total market capitalization. The funds shifted from continuous inflows to slight outflows, combined with quarter-end spot selling, exerting some short-term pressure on the price. Not dumping positions—someone first deposited stablecoins, then withdrew about $6.2 million worth of AAVE from Kraken.
According to Ember/Odaily/ChainCatcher 10/1 09:21: About 5 hours ago, a whale transferred approximately $5.97 million USDC into Kraken, and about 3 hours ago withdrew 39,018 AAVE from Kraken, valued at about $6.2 million. Compared to yesterday's two whales exchanging WBTC for AAVE and HL closing AAVE longs, this is a different entity consolidating withdrawals from CEX into NEW.
Depositing stablecoins ≠ position fully established; withdrawing ≠ necessarily continuing to hold; monitoring tags ≠ confirmed entity. At the time of writing, OKX AAVE is about 160.98. Not investment advice.The $BTC $ETH ETH/BTC trading pair has broken through a downtrend line that has lasted nearly five years and is poised to achieve a third consecutive month of gains, marking the first clear trend reversal signal since the last cycle. The altcoin season index is between 60 and 64, above the neutral level but below the comprehensive altcoin season confirmation line of 75, indicating that this round of capital rotation is selective and favors projects with real revenue and use cases. The relative weakness of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin is being corrected, but a broad rally has yet to arrive.Sitting in front of the screen this morning, Bitcoin just got stuck in this dead zone around 83,500, moving even flatter than an ECG.
Yet that gambler's instinct in me starts acting up again, always feeling like not having a couple of open positions is like missing out on today. I've always lost because of this—missing the top with one-sided trades is just a missed opportunity, but what really causes me big losses and drawdowns is messing around recklessly in these directionless sideways markets.
Scrolled through the major coins, all weaving sideways, so I just quit the software and went out for a bowl of noodles. Fighting against dead water only costs you your emotional capital in the end.
$TAO $RENDER $NEAR $BTC Bitcoin price has been stuck in the $82,000–$86,000 range for several consecutive days, with the market in a wait-and-see state. The core reason is the uncertainty of PCE inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, leading investors to prefer waiting for clearer macro signals before making directional bets; market makers leverage this waiting sentiment to manipulate the order book, pinning the price within the range while squeezing both long and short positions, creating a low-volatility, high-friction market structure. The low volatility within the range means that once macro data is released, the volatility in the breakout direction may be amplified more quickly.Saylor announced that the $STRC dividend yield remains at 12%, unchanged in October.
What does 12% mean — it's higher than the vast majority of bonds and REITs, essentially using high-interest financing to buy Bitcoin, turning the company into a "bond-issuing coin hoarding" perpetual motion machine.
As long as BTC's long-term growth outpaces the 12% cost of capital, this game can continue; once the coin price stagnates or declines, the interest becomes a burden weighing down the balance sheet.
Those bullish call this faith, while the bearish call it leverage. Both sides are actually talking about the same thing.$BTC Hester Peirce, the outgoing U.S. SEC commissioner, stated that the SEC has "truly shifted direction" on crypto asset issues, moving from a previously quite negative stance to pursuing regulatory clarity. As a long-time supporter of crypto innovation, her remarks are interpreted as a possible structural change in the regulator's internal attitude. Increased regulatory certainty helps reduce compliance and legal risk premiums, supporting institutional participation and long-term capital allocation; however, since the statement comes from an outgoing official and no concrete policies have been implemented yet, the short-term impact is more reflected in sentiment and expectations.Standard Chartered Bank has been like a diligent signal caller in the past six months: Uniswap, Aave, Morpho are named in rotation, and yesterday they set a target for $ENA — $2 by 2028.
The logic behind investment banks issuing research reports and KOLs tweeting is actually the same: traffic and stance come first.
What’s worth pondering is not whether the target price is accurate, but why traditional institutions are starting to systematically craft "stories" for DeFi blue chips.
What they are mostly focusing on is not the coin price, but the cash flow and license value that are taking shape behind these protocols.
Don’t take the numbers in the research reports literally; the direction can be used as a reference.$BTC is stuck oscillating around 82000, repeatedly testing but unable to hold steady.
Every time it briefly surges up, many people think it's stable and feel safe to go long.
Precisely at these moments is when it's most dangerous; this is a common tactic used by market makers, waiting for everyone to let their guard down before suddenly dumping the price.
Remember, 82000 is not a solid bottom; it's a psychological trap.
The situation with ETH is similarly weak; it has already broken below 2650 before, hitting a low of 2626. If it breaks through 2580 tonight, the downward space will continue to open.
The previously released PCE inflation data barely moved the market.
The rate hike expectations have long been priced in; what truly determines the market direction now is Micron's after-hours earnings report at 4 AM.
Whether AI chip demand is strong or not, this earnings report is more influential than any macro data.
If the performance falls short of expectations, tech stocks will come under pressure, and the crypto market will also experience volatility!$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Brothers, why can my $ZEC short positions make profits? Because ZEC now is no longer in the previous one-sided short squeeze mode, but has turned into an up-and-down sweeping mode!
Looking at the latest OKEx data, ZEC current price is 1,417.62, down 1.69% in 24 hours. Long account ratio is 42.23%, short account ratio is 57.77%, long-short ratio is 0.73. Shorts dominate in number, but the long-short ratio has risen from the low of 0.31 a few days ago, indicating that the long side is strengthening, short positions are dispersed, while longs are more concentrated. The funding rate is all below zero, shorts have to pay longs, the short side is too crowded!
In this structure, the market makers sweep up and down to harvest, first sweeping shorts, then trapping longs. Only by shorting or longing at the right positions can you make profits. The resistance zone is from 1,493 to 1,520, a rebound here is a short opportunity; the support zone is from 1,350 to 1,410, a drop here can be a chance to long for a rebound. The middle is a meat grinder, don’t open positions recklessly when the direction is unclear.
My short position opened at 1,643.78, with a floating profit of 40.53%, I nailed this rhythm. Only do short-term trades, take a bite and run, $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 1. Macro Level: The US core PCE data was released, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, below market expectations, leading the market to lower the probability of a rate hike in October. However, inflation is still far from the 2% target, and Federal Reserve officials maintain a hawkish stance. The high interest rate environment has not fundamentally shifted; the market rally is merely a pulse rebound driven by expectation adjustments, not a trend reversal. Long-term US Treasury yields remain high, and after a brief dip, the US dollar stabilized again. The US stock market showed divergence, with a slight recovery in risk asset preference but weak sustainability. Crypto assets were disturbed by macro news, experiencing rapid intraday spikes followed by pullbacks.
2. BTC Core Capital News: Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, with $430 million net inflow yesterday, marking nine consecutive days of net inflows. Institutional funds continue to enter, providing bottom support for this round of market activity. All 12 ETFs recorded net inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT being the main source of incremental inflows. On-chain whale activity: Large amounts of BTC were transferred internally within exchanges, mainly for institutional portfolio adjustments, with no large-scale collective sell-offs. Existing long-term holdings remain firmly locked, with no significant selling from long-term holders. Market performance: After the PCE data release, BTC quickly surged in the short term but then faced pressure and pulled back, testing the upper range resistance. The willingness of funds to chase highs is weak.
3. Hot Coin News: BTC: The core large-cap asset, supported continuously by ETF funds, surged on news but then faced pressure, leading the market and serving as a sentiment indicator. ETH: As the second largest weighted coin, its performance is weaker than BTC, with insufficient rebound strength. ETH spot ETFs continue to see outflows, and institutional funds are showing divergence.Keep watching the market
AKE is crazy again. The candlesticks look like they're on fire, shooting up one after another. I consider myself bearish, but facing such a wild coin, my hands still hover over the keyboard, not daring to press. It's not that I haven't judged, but I'm afraid it won't behave logically. If I admit defeat, so be it; it's better not to make money from this.
Not shorting AKE doesn't mean giving up. I shift my focus to SOON. The logic is simple: the more it rises, the more I short. It's not out of spite, but waiting for that loose pin after the sentiment is fully pumped. In the altcoin frenzy, someone always has to pay the price.
After a sleep, NMR actually got unstuck. A few days ago, I was anxious being trapped, but unexpectedly, after waking up, the price quietly climbed back to the cost line. No excitement, only relief. The market always quietly leaves a door open when you are most relaxed.
Watching the market for a long time, I finally understand: not every candlestick needs to be involved, not every fluctuation needs a response. Knowing when not to act is more important than knowing when to make a move. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $OKB: Decisively short! The market always moves in the direction that causes the most people to lose money. So, where is the "biggest money" right now?
Smart money has piled up 1.28 billion long positions, while shorts are only 360 million. The long-short volume difference is more than threefold. Although shorts are currently stuck with 18.2 million, in the eyes of the main players, these 1,600 longs holding over a billion are the truly juicy big fish.
Think about it from another perspective: pulling up hard can at most harvest the 360 million shorts, and there is heavy resistance at 122.61 above; but as long as it crashes down, it can wipe out the 1.28 billion longs along with their stop-loss line at 121.03 in one sweep, directly testing the bottom line at 120.03. Big money calculates this better than anyone.
I'm not interested in betting on direction against these 1.28 billion longs. I only follow their stop-loss orders. I've already heavily laid out shorts, just waiting for the answer to unfold!
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Another "Solana treasury company" is replenishing ammunition.
HSDT just completed a $15 million stock plus warrant financing, issued at about a 5% premium to NAV, with the money used to continue buying SOL or repurchasing shares.
It already holds about 2.3 million SOL, worth approximately $273.5 million at the current price.
The detail of issuing at a premium is worth noting:
It shows the market not only recognizes SOL but is also willing to pay a bit more for a "shell that can continuously accumulate coins."
This kind of structure essentially turns the listed company into a leveraged holding vehicle, amplifying gains when the coin price rises and also amplifying risks when it falls.First, looking at the market, BTC is currently priced at 83,576. After previously surging to 85,650, the bulls have lost momentum, and the price has been continuously falling, trending downward with fluctuations.
From the moving averages perspective, MA5: 83,580.9, MA10: 83,690.7, MA20: 83,847.7, all three moving averages are positioned above the current price, a typical bearish suppression pattern. The first short-term resistance lies in the moving average range of 83,690–83,847, with the strong resistance above still at the previous high of 85,650. For the market to regain strength, it must firmly hold above the moving average resistance.
On the downside, pay close attention to the previous low support at 82,960. If this support is broken, there is room for further decline.
After this surge and subsequent pullback, the market has shifted from strong to weak, leaning towards short-term consolidation and adjustment. This is not a suitable position for blindly bottom-fishing or going long aggressively; even aggressive trading should wait for a signal of support stabilization on a pullback. For those holding positions, consider reducing holdings near the moving average resistance. The crypto market is highly volatile, so be sure to control your position size, set stop losses, and avoid heavy exposure.The most vulnerable link is actually not BTC. Have you noticed who is holding firm and who is truly falling in this round of decline? Looking at the market, $BTC is relatively resistant to the drop, with its price still fluctuating within the original range and no obvious breakdown. But $ETH and $SOL have deeper pullbacks, especially $SOL; once its elasticity is lost, sentiment follows downward. This is not an ordinary synchronized correction, but more like capital choosing sides. My feeling is that the market is not trading on good or bad news right now, but on "who is safer." BTC is treated as a safe haven, while ETH and SOL are seen as the riskier side. In this structure, FOMO is weak, hesitation is strong, and narrative fatigue is evident—it's not that people don't want to buy, but they don't know who will take over after they buy. What we really need to watch next is not whether BTC can rally again, but whether ETH and SOL can stabilize first. If they continue to weaken, BTC's sideways movement will also become fragile because the market's risk appetite is connected. Conversely, if SOL stops falling first and ETH follows, BTC's range can become a springboard, and momentum will have a chance to gradually return. The bullish path: BTC holds the lower boundary of the range, ETH and SOL stabilize with reduced volume, then recover short-term moving averages with volume. The bearish risk: BTC fills the gap down, ETH and SOL rebound weakly, volume continues to shrink, turning the correction into a weakening trend. What we fear most now is not the drop, but that no one is willing to catch the fall. My own pace is not to rush into adding positions, but to watch the price first The on-chain security report for September just came out, and the numbers are quite striking: GoPlus recorded 39 major incidents, with total losses of about $793 million, roughly 4.2 times that of August and 2.5 times that of July, which means it more than doubled the combined losses of the previous two months.
The most severe single incident was the Bitget hot wallet, with a loss of about $387.5 million.
Interestingly, the market did not show panic of the same scale — the money didn’t flee, but vulnerabilities still need to be fixed.
When the market is good, security spending is always the last priority; when incidents happen, everyone pays the price.