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#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key, macro rhythm influences crypto sentiment, BTC under short-term pressure but mid-term structure remains intact, I tend to patiently wait for a pullback confirmation. The four-hour chart is still in an upward channel, supported 10.75% above the low, but the one-hour chart weakens, falling 1.78% from the high, current price 83736.5, 24h slight rise of 0.5%, amplitude from 85639 to 82918.9. Order book top ten buy-sell ratio 0.45, selling pressure obvious, funding rate 0.0071% slightly neutral, open interest 28,000 coins with no panic seen. Discipline first: place long orders at 82930 on pullback, stop loss at 81865, target 84680; if it rallies to 85240 and faces resistance, light short is possible, stop loss 86120, target 83410. Single position no more than 5%, execute at price, no chasing or holding.
—For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading.—
$BTC#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key $BTC The reinforcement ratio of reinforced concrete doesn't lie—Micron's financial report is like the load-bearing raft slab poured thirty meters underground for this AI data center skyscraper finally passing inspection. A quarterly revenue of $5.4229 billion and an 87% non-GAAP gross margin are not just the glass curtain wall looking good on the outside; they are the actual measured strength of the core tube shear wall far exceeding the design specifications.
I've been in this industry for twenty years and have seen too many projects die from "stunning blueprints but collapsing foundations." A white paper can be rendered like Zaha Hadid's design, but what really determines whether this building can reach eighty floors is the depth of the pile foundation into the bedrock, the water-cement ratio per cubic meter of concrete, and whether there was any corner-cutting on-site when reinforcing bars were densified from 16mm to 32mm. What Micron is doing now is driving the pile foundations of HBM and advanced DRAM one by one into the demand bedrock of AI data centers—and the FY27 Q1 guidance directly opens to a range of $60 billion to $63 billion. This is not a rendering; this is progress confirmation with construction permits obtained, tower cranes erected, and the basement topped out.
The real signal lies in strategic customer agreements increasing from sixteen to twenty-six. In construction terms, this is called "pre-lease lock-in." Before the office building even rises above ±0.00 ground level, twenty-six anchor tenants have signed irrevocable ten-year leases, instantly turning the developer's cash flow model from "betting on the market" to "scheduling construction." Memory supply and demand will continue to tighten from FY27 to FY28, meaning the floor area ratio of this plot is locked by policy, no permits for additional floors will be approved, and the supply side's reinforced concrete has already solidified.
$xTSM, as a US stock token-linked asset, essentially represents the stress transmission between the building's MEP systems and main structure. AI computing power is the main load-bearing framework, storage is the vertical transportation core tube—if the elevator shaft capacity is insufficient, no matter how tall the building is, it will be a useless building. Micron's gross margin surpassing 87% means it has mastered the exclusive construction technology of the core tube; others wanting to replicate it must first rebuild the entire supply chain's template support system.
But structural engineers' occupational hazard is always to first look for defects. What keeps me awake at night is not the demand-side heat but whether this upward cycle's "seismic fortification intensity" is sufficient. The collapses in the 2000 and 2018 storage cycles were due to capacity expansions starting concentratedly at the peak of the boom—when all tower cranes are erected, that's the starting point of the next vacancy rate surge. Are any of the three major manufacturers secretly leveraging to frantically expand production? Is the "continued tightening" from FY27 to FY28 a real structural scarcity, or is the contractor deliberately slowing progress to maintain prices? Do the twenty-six long-term contracts' payment terms and default clauses carry "back-to-back" risks like those in general contractor agreements, causing chain reactions of defaults if one link breaks?
The seismic rating of $xTSM as a US stock-mapped asset depends on whether it holds actual main structural equity or merely hangs a curtain wall advertisement. The former can withstand an eight-degree crack intensity; the latter would have to be dismantled after a typhoon.
Currently, the quality of this building's foundation slab pouring is the most solid in five years. The axial compression ratio of the load-bearing columns remains within the safe range. #MicronAIMemoryOutlook Micron's raised guidance confirms strengthening storage demand, and the computing power narrative often spills over to AI sector tokens. WLD, as a token representing identity and computing power concepts, benefits from this. I lean slightly bullish in the short term but remain cautious about chasing highs. After an overnight spike to 0.5712, it pulled back; current price is 0.5375. The 4-hour structure is still upward, more than 50% above the low point. The 1-hour chart shows weakness with a 7.06% retracement, indicating a gear shift within strength. The buy-sell ratio of the top 10 levels is slightly bullish at 1.03, funding rate is a mild 0.01%, and open interest at 69.636 million shows longs are not crowded. Bullish momentum remains but profit-taking needs to be digested. Buying on a pullback to 0.5238 is advisable, with a stop loss at 0.5086 and targets above 0.5712 up to 0.5834. Exit if volume-driven break below 0.5086 occurs, keeping position size under 20%.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$WLD#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 $WLD First of all, I wish all teachers and friends a happy National Day. It's October, the start of work and holidays, but I have to continue working.
I quite like hype, but I don't dare to buy it now. It still feels too volatile; I prefer less volatility and am not in a hurry.
Bitcoin is around 84,000, only up about 0.5% in the past day, while HYPE rose about 4%.
Buying coins feels more and more like discussing marriage. Just liking it isn't enough; it has to be suitable, cost-effective, and the price must be low enough. Life really is connected in every aspect.The most awkward situation for BTC right now is neither rising nor falling.
Instead, the market is very active, but the price hasn't moved much.
The latest data shows BTC is around $83,600, basically flat over 24 hours; however, futures trading volume in the past 24 hours has reached about $66.4 billion, spot trading about $5.3 billion, and open interest about $52.7 billion.
In other words, funds have not left the market, trading hasn't cooled down, yet the price remains confined within a narrow range.
This is worth observing.
If heavy trading ultimately only results in turnover without the price breaking through, it indicates that bulls and bears are still exhausting each other.
On the upside, watch the $84,000–$85,000 area first.
If volume expands here and the price holds above, market focus may shift.
On the downside, watch around $83,000.
If a drop below this level is accompanied by a significant increase in volume, pay attention to whether the original consolidation structure is starting to change.
So the biggest focus for BTC now is not predicting the next move, but observing one thing:
With such large trading volume, when will the price truly break out of this range?
The volume is already here.
Next, it depends on whether the price will respond.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
$BTC Single Coin Contract Fluctuation｜Last 15 Minutes
$SNDK's final phase of active buying and selling tends to balance out: overall active buying was 60.6%, the final phase was 47.8%, with a fifteen-minute price increase of +0.71%. The buyer's advantage did not continue until the end of the window, and there is no obvious one-sided transaction advantage in the recent period.The buy-side depth on the order book suddenly piled up a thick wall of several hundred BTC just now, and as soon as the price approached, the orders were immediately withdrawn. It's clearly a fake order to mislead.
The spot CVD has been steadily declining, but the contract open interest stubbornly remains high. The long liquidation pool at 82,800 hasn't been cleared yet. The main players are tugging back and forth here to use the opposing side to offload their positions. Don't rush in just because of a few small bullish candles; wait until liquidity is fully swept and a volume-backed rebound appears before considering entry.
$BTC $ETH $CT This coin's chip structure suggests it might surge wildly, but last night, I was planning to mobilize funds to handle Micron's earnings report and missed the subsequent gains. For those who followed my orders, this low-position long can still be held a bit longer #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 🧠 A counterintuitive fact: the trade where you lose the most money is often not the one you panic the most about
Most people think that liquidation/major losses happen during "extreme panic, all-in positions, maxed-out leverage."
Wrong.
Real data (I reviewed the settlement records of myself and over a dozen veteran traders around me) shows:
The biggest losing trades often happen when you "feel the most secure."
Why?
During extreme panic, your position is small, stop-losses are tight, and you might close positions at night due to poor sleep.
But when you "feel secure" → you add to your position, increase leverage, remove stop-losses, even borrow money to cover.
Then a sudden spike wipes you out.
My largest loss in March 2024 wasn’t on the day of the crash, but the day before — BTC was pulled from 68,000 to 73,000, and the group chat was full of "bull market rebound speed," so I added 3x leverage, thinking "at least to 80,000." The next day, a 15% pullback wiped me out completely.
The most dangerous emotion isn’t fear, it’s the "illusion of certainty."
Think back to your biggest loss — did it also happen at the moment you "felt secure?"
Share in the comments what your mindset was during your biggest loss. I’ll read every one.
Personal trade review, not investment advice. DYOR.TAO deeply tested the 300 level, what to do here
TAO is now at 305.70, dropping intraday from 319.20 to 297.50
4-hour candle closed at 306, high 307 low 300, volume 1663
Daily candle closed at 306, high 312 low 298, volume 14818
The lower shadow recovered, indicating support near 300
Positioning is as follows
303 to 305 is 4-hour support, 298 is daily support
Upwards, 306 to 307 is near resistance, 312 is the starting point of today's drop
Funding rate +0.0100%, bulls paying full, chasing highs is costly
So my judgment is
No chasing longs today, buy near 300 on pullback, stop loss at 296
Target first at 312, if broken then look at 319
Risk-reward ratio about 2:1, position size within 20%
If it breaks below 298 directly, this downtrend is not over, stay out and watch
$TAO $BTC #TAO #strategy #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key From last night's PCE and the current macro outlook, mainstream coins are quite divergent.
On the macro side, core PCE was below expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped to 38%, unchanged at 62%, and Goldman Sachs pushed the rate hike to the end of the year. But ADP employment exceeded expectations, indicating the labor market is still strong, and Kashkari also said inflation is still too high, possibly requiring another hike within the year. Cooling inflation provides some relief, but stable employment makes the Fed hesitant to ease, and the market is now waiting for tomorrow night's non-farm payrolls to set the direction.
In this context, $BTC surged but failed to hold, retreating some today, facing heavy resistance above but supported below, consolidating at a high level waiting for non-farm payrolls. $ETH slightly rose, supported by ETF funds and upgrade expectations, more resilient than $BTC but hard to strengthen independently, mainly defensive catch-up gains. $SOL led the mainstream decline, having risen too fast earlier and now correcting quickly with high volatility; the key is whether the support below can hold. OKB remains stable, supported by deflation and ecosystem, with low volatility, suitable for long-term holding, no short-term surprises expected. XRP still has the old problem, falling with the market but not rising, hard to have momentum without independent catalysts.
The current situation is that inflation has cooled, providing relief, but employment hasn't collapsed, making the Fed reluctant to ease. The market is stuck in the middle, with neither bulls nor bears daring to act rashly. Betting on direction now is no different from flipping a coin.
Wait for tomorrow night's data to fully settle and market sentiment to stabilize before deciding the next step.Brothers, $ETH is now dropping much more sharply than it is rising!
On the chart, ETH is struggling around 2700, falling from 2748 to 2656 in a week, with weak rebounds. The short position ratio is nearly 60%, with selling pressure clearly outweighing buying, and capital flow is bearish.
Negative factors keep coming: Ethereum ETFs continue to see net outflows, institutions are withdrawing; US Treasury yields have surged to 5.59%, a 20-year high, greatly increasing the opportunity cost of holding ETH; MetaMask Staking has urgently withdrawn validators due to a hack, impacting staking services.
Although bulls have Tom Lee calling for $10,000 and BitMine heavily staking, short-term retail bulls exceed 70%, while smart money is only 60% long, meaning retail has gone all in. Under this structure, the probability of the big players sweeping downwards is higher.
I'm holding my short at 2713 with a floating profit of 2.43%. Looking down first at 2630, if broken then 2550. Only trading short-term, take a bite and run, never fight to the end.
$BTC $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 🔥The biggest test for BTC right now is not technology, but patience!
📉From not continuing to drop around 81000 to now returning above 83000, Bitcoin has shown more resilience than many expected.
⚡But don't forget, the market rise is also driven by short-term capital rushing in and short covering, which doesn't mean all pressure has disappeared.
📊Before tonight's data, the price may continue to oscillate within the range, waiting for the market to choose.
Break above 85600:
➡️Short-term bullish space opens;
Break below 83000:
➡️Watch out for the risk of a second bottom.
💰In the medium to long term, a real big move still requires clearer macro signals.
🛡️So the best strategy now is not to guess, but to wait.
🔥Opportunities come every day; only those who control risk can wait for the next chance.
👊Brothers, are you ready to watch tonight or position in advance? #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
$BTC The biggest variable recently might not be on the charts, but off them.
In the short term, things look okay, and there are chances for price rebounds, but on the other side, the 30-year US Treasury yield has broken through 5.6%. That number is the real killer. When risk-free assets can give you that kind of return, why would capital still take risks? Risk markets need to find a new balance, and Bitcoin is the first to be affected.
So the biggest taboo now is to see a rally and think the trend will continue, then go all in. The rise might be real, but the sustainability depends on whether the environment cooperates. With US Treasuries draining liquidity like this, every inch Bitcoin pushes up will be hard-fought.
Truly mature trading is not about catching every rally but knowing when to reduce risk. You can look for short-term opportunities, but your position size must follow the environment: light when tight, add when loose. The market never lacks the next opportunity; survive first, then you have the right to wait for the next wave.
The core question now is, does Bitcoin listen more to technicals or macro? I lean towards macro suppressing technicals: technicals give rebounds, macro sets the ceiling. What do you think? Let's discuss in the comments.
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Two giant whales, two destinies
One slept for 9 years, the other is bottom-fishing during the pullback.
① ETH Old Whale: 156x in 9 years, starting to pass the baton
An early Ethereum address dormant for nearly 9 years has been activated.
Bought 3,000 ETH at $18.8 in 2017, recently taking profits in batches:
Sold 2,000 ETH at an average price of $3,096, cashing out $6.19 million, net profit $6.15 million, a 156x return.
The timing of its profit-taking is very coincidental:
Q3 2026, ETH quarterly return +72.7%, a historical best;
Spot ETFs have had net inflows for 7 consecutive days, over $689.8 million in a single week, BlackRock’s ETHA saw $127 million inflow in one day.
The old whale is selling, BlackRock is buying.
Chips are moving from “genesis players” to “institutional balance sheets.”
② ZEC New Whale: Public opinion says selling, on-chain says accumulating
Lookonchain monitoring: two addresses suspected to be controlled by the same party,
In the past month, withdrew 24,706 ZEC from exchanges + Gate, worth about $28.17 million, average price 1140.
ZEC currently at 1428, 25% higher than the whale’s cost.
The market says “early players are fleeing,” but on-chain the coins are being moved to cold wallets.
True accumulation is not in the K-line, but in the withdrawal records. Last night was so intense, I almost got wiped out!
This wave of BTC fake breakout was really ruthless: after the PCE, sentiment was lifted, volume matched, and the news was also relatively positive. The price spiked above 85200, and a bunch of people chasing longs on the right side thought it would hit 86k. But it didn't hold, quickly dropping back to 84200/83xxx, basically handing over 100x long positions. On the flip side, shorts got hit by the volatility, but you can't get cocky; in this kind of market, the biggest fear is mistaking a lucky break for a pattern.
Right now BTC is between 82k-84k, with 82500-82000 as key short-term support, and 85000-85200 above turning into resistance/fake breakout memory zone; if it can't reclaim 84000, the short-term outlook is weak. ETH is relatively stable, oscillating around 2670, not following BTC's extreme spikes, indicating that mainstream funds are more selective. SOL and altcoins are even less worth chasing news for; after fake breakouts, liquidity worsens.
My own principle: breakouts must be confirmed by close/sustained volume; no chasing without confirmation; keep enough leverage buffer and set stop-losses in advance. Whether I made or lost money last night doesn't matter; what matters is not letting a second-level spike that "looks like a trend" change the system. $BTC $ETH $ZEC POL staking rewards have increased; the money is not newly printed
Polygon's PIP-92 has taken effect.
Staking rewards are expected to rise to 7.7%.
Where does this money come from:
It is 27.3 million $POL priority fees accumulated by the network.
Priority fees are fees for jumping the queue; whoever wants their transaction faster pays more.
How is this number calculated:
This money was originally sitting in the treasury.
Now it is taken out and distributed to stakers.
The reward increase does not mean the network is earning more.
Rewards are only paid until December 1, 2026.
Counting backward, it will be distributed over two months.
On average, over ten million tokens will be released each month.
When the treasury is emptied, the 7.7% will also end.
#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC #Strategy再购BTC、多家财库同步增持 $POL 📊 Crypto Daily Report October 1: BTC Sideways for the Tenth Day! Options Open Interest Surges 7x, Big Moves Expected in October?
Brothers, BTC hovered around 83,500 for another day, up 0.1% in 24h. Calculating from September 20 until now, it has been consolidating sideways between 82,000-84,000 for a full ten days!
Fear & Greed Index: 68 (Greed, down from 78 to 68, sentiment cooling off)
Total Liquidations: $280 million — bulls and bears are grinding, no one wants to get liquidated
Funding Rate: +0.002% — almost flat, leverage is light
Big signal today:
Options open interest surged 707% to $43 billion! This indicates big money is betting on a major move in October
ETF net inflows for 9 consecutive days, but daily amount dropped from $1 billion to $66.2 million, institutional buying slowing
Volume up 5%, but price stagnant — someone is quietly accumulating. US Treasury yields remain high, but BTC is no longer following the drop, showing resilience
🎯 Watch two things in the next month:
Options open interest surged 7x, will October be up or down? Direction must be chosen
October 27-28 Federal Reserve meeting, will they hike or pause?
Sideways for ten days without dropping means there is support below. The surge in options open interest shows big money is positioning. October will likely pick a direction; this is the calm before the storm. $BTC $ETH #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
With the latest PCE below expectations, the market's pricing for an October rate hike has clearly cooled. August PCE grew 3.4% year-on-year, below the expected 3.7%, and core PCE also fell back to 3.0%; combined with New York Fed President Williams signaling "no need to rush rate hikes," the market's probability for an October rate hike has now dropped to about 37%–49%.
But this does not mean rate hike expectations have completely disappeared.
The next real test is the September non-farm payrolls.
Currently, the market expects about 90,000 new jobs in September non-farm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding around 4.1%.
If non-farm payrolls are significantly below expectations:
Cooling employment → reduced necessity for rate hikes → U.S. Treasury yields fall → U.S. dollar under pressure → BTC, gold, and other risk assets gain support.
Conversely, if non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations again:
Strong employment → inflationary pressure more likely to persist → October rate hike expectations reheat → U.S. Treasury yields rise → BTC faces pressure.
So now the market logic has shifted from "Will there be a rate hike in October?" to:
"Can the non-farm payrolls push the rate hike back into market pricing?"
For BTC, this is also a very important short-term macro window.
In short: PCE has cooled rate hike expectations, but non-farm payrolls are the next key card; if employment weakens simultaneously, the October rate hike may be further delayed, and BTC's macro pressure is expected to continue easing. Put $DOT on the operating table; the 24H +1.74% curve on the monitor is a pseudo-stable state—this is not sinus rhythm, but a compensatory struggle before ventricular tachycardia.
First, read the short-term ECG: the 1-hour RSI has pushed to 65.6, crossing the sell threshold of 64, indicating excessive sympathetic nerve discharge. Looking at the long-term RSI, it is only 46.8, still below the midline, showing that myocardial contractility has not recovered at all. Short-term excitation and long-term failure—this separation is called compensatory imbalance clinically and is known as a bull trap on the chart.
The Bollinger Bands represent the vessel walls, now stretched to the limit. The short-term price is at 94% of the channel, only +0.1% from the upper band, and still +2.1% away from the lower band—vascular lumen expansion with accumulating rebound pressure. The mid-term is even more dangerous, with a position reading of 101%, upper band deviation at -0.0%, meaning the catheter tip has already pierced the vessel wall, indicating an overstretched state. Chasing longs at this position is like sewing a stitch on a rupture.
The diagnosis is clear: $0.83 is not an entry point but a passive tamponade point. The real surgical window is above at $0.87, with a +4.7% pullback space from the current price, waiting for blood flow to recover before blocking again. If shorting at $0.87, the first take-profit is $0.77, corresponding to -6.5%, near the lower band decompression zone; the second take-profit is $0.80, -3.3%, a conservative chest closure. Stop loss is set at $0.97, +17.1%, a relatively large safety margin. Position size must be compressed like treating a heart with low ejection fraction to control single infusion pressure.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.87 (current price +4.7%)
Take Profit 1: 0.77 (-6.5%)
Take Profit 2: 0.80 (-3.3%)
Stop Loss: 0.97 (+17.1%)
Lesions located: short-term overbought, mid-term upper band tear, long-term weak pumping; combined, this operation is only to short, not to repair. #strategyplaybookThe 30-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.6% intraday, reaching the highest level since 2002. Yet, there have been recent reports of cooling inflation, which makes these two developments seem somewhat contradictory.
In fact, those buying 30-year bonds consider far more than just the next FOMC meeting. They have to decide whether to accept fixed cash flows for the next several decades, factoring in inflation, bond supply, and policy changes over that period into the price. A single pause in rate hikes in the short term cannot erase all these concerns.
I find the current market divergence quite interesting: the short end can adjust expectations based on one PCE report, while the long end may still demand higher compensation. So when discussing BTC’s funding environment, it’s not enough to just ask whether the Fed will move next time; we also need to see if long-term financing costs have eased.
High long-term bond yields do provide an opportunity for funds that need to match long-term expenditures to reassess. But for those looking to buy in and wait for prices to rebound, the focus is completely different. Two types of buyers looking at the same 5.6% yield are calculating very different accounts in their minds.
I’m not convinced that "one good data point can make all interest rates fall together." If the short end eases but the long end remains firm, the threshold for corporate long-term investment remains. AI projects and crypto treasuries will still have to face this cost.
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Micron reported the latest quarterly revenue of $54.23 billion, with the midpoint of next quarter's revenue guidance raised to $61.5 billion. Such a scale of growth is hard to just brush off with a simple "AI story told well." What made me pause in the earnings report was the strategic customer agreements mentioned by management. They believe these agreements increase confidence in the sustainability of future performance. The most frustrating thing in the storage industry has always been that when demand is strong, everyone expands production simultaneously, and by the time capacity is in place, customers no longer have such urgent shortages. If customers are willing to negotiate procurement arrangements in advance, manufacturers have at least some basis when deciding to buy equipment and build production lines. This is much more reassuring than watching spot prices rise while guessing whether customers will still buy next year. Of course, how the agreements are priced and whether procurement volumes can be adjusted still depend on the terms. Customers' willingness to cooperate does not mean future profits are already locked in. But I think this deserves to be the focus of the next phase of studying Micron, rather than continuing to only discuss how scarce HBM is. Micron is already making considerable money now. The real test for management going forward is how to allocate this money: expanding capacity too slowly will lose orders, expanding too aggressively might repeat the storage cycle. After reading the earnings report, I have more confidence in demand and am more curious about how the company plans to restrain expansion impulses. At times like this, restraint is very valuable. #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 Core PCE year-over-year 3.0%, month-over-month 0.2%, this data finally gave the market a breather. A few days ago, we were still discussing the Fed's consecutive rate hikes, but now at least we can reconsider: maybe there's no need to rush so much.
What makes me a bit optimistic this time is that inflation is cooling down while consumption is still growing. The most comfortable environment for risk assets is when price pressures ease and businesses and consumers don't suddenly lose purchasing power. If low interest rates can only be achieved through a clear economic recession, that benefit isn't so appealing.
The problem is, one report alone can't support this judgment. Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the nonfarm payrolls will show whether employment matches this consumption resilience. Besides new jobs, average working hours and wages are also worth watching: reducing employee hours has a different impact on household income than direct layoffs.
I’m reluctant to interpret "one less rate hike" as easing having arrived. Funding costs remain high; corporate financing and personal borrowing won’t immediately become cheaper just because of moderate data. BTC getting a bit of valuation breathing room and the return of low-cost capital are two different environments.
This time, we can acknowledge data improvement without forcing bad news. But if employment also holds steady tomorrow night, my confidence in this round of recovery will increase a bit more. We’re still waiting on that report.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $2100 per share. Micron.
I was stunned when I first saw this number, not because it's high, but because it's still being raised.
Market makers all know that a target price is not a prediction, it's an attitude. Raising it from 2000 to 2100 isn't a big jump, but the direction is very clear—the sellers don't want to be bearish at this level.
In plain terms, institutions are still willing to give Micron a higher valuation space.
What really matters isn't this $100 increase, but the underlying theme: storage, AI, computing power—this narrative hasn't been abandoned by the market yet.
For the crypto world, this isn't a direct positive, but it sets a baseline sentiment. As long as the AI narrative holds in traditional markets, the on-chain projects related to computing power and storage still have stories to tell.
Of course, the target price belongs to others, but the position is your own.
As an old retail investor, seeing 2100 only makes me think: what was I doing when it was 2000?
#Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 $HYPE Only dropped 0.06% in 24 hours, the scoreboard barely moved — but a grandmaster never looks at the scoreboard, they watch the sweat on the opponent's palm.
$AUDM's current move is a typical closed formation. On the surface, it's calm, but the formation has quietly cracked. The price is stuck at the 5% position of the short-term Bollinger Band, just 0.0% from the lower band, almost breathing right on the baseline; meanwhile, the mid-term only returned to the 25% percentile, with the lower band 0.2% away from the current price, and the upper band hanging 0.7% above. What does this mean? It means the bears' current offensive is at its last breath, a lone deep incursion without support from the pathway pawns in the endgame.
What really made me place the move was the RSI hourly line breaking below 38. In my game record, this is the weak spot revealed after the opponent consecutively exchanged pieces — they thought they simplified the position but actually opened their king's wing. The oversold zone is not a panic signal, but a ticket to deeper calculation entry. I planted the first pawn at $0.68, a position 2.1% below the current price, right below the mid-term lower band, a standard outpost position, able to attack or defend.
The tactical goals are clear: the first pathway pawn pushes to $0.71, realizing a 2.2% space, which is the inevitable resolution area near the short-term upper band; the second pawn supplements at $0.70, locking in 0.7%, serving as a solid midgame transition point. My bottom line is set at $0.62, an 11.6% retracement — this is not a stop loss, but a sacrifice. If one pawn cannot gain control of the entire rear wing, it means my opening judgment was fundamentally wrong, and this position must be conceded decisively without regrets.
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.68 (current price -2.1%)
Take Profit 1: 0.71 (+2.2%)
Take Profit 2: 0.70 (+0.7%)
Stop Loss: 0.62 (-11.6%)
Many think trading is a step-by-step deduction, but it’s not. The real win or loss is calculated before you place the first piece — the variable is not price, but how many percentage points of retracement you can maintain the formation intact. I give myself an 11.6% tolerance, with an expected return of only 2.2%, which seems unfavorable in odds; but what about the win rate? RSI at 38 and Bollinger Band at 5% overlap, historically more than half of such games are won by the first player. I don’t bet on direction, I bet on the position structure.
Below $0.62, I concede this game; above $0.62, every step is a trap I set for the opponent.Last night, the US August core PCE came out at 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.3%, the lowest since February this year.
The market immediately changed its tone. Goldman Sachs moved the rate hike from October to December and even said this round might not require any more hikes at all. On the CME side, the probability of no action in October has already exceeded half.
Sounds like they’re easing up, right?
But the bond market is not giving any face. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still stuck at 5.29%, the highest since 2007; the 30-year yield broke 5.6% intraday, a level unseen since 2002. Issuing bonds aggressively while data remains strong means borrowing costs are climbing on their own.
In plain terms: the talk is softer, but money hasn’t gotten cheaper.
Anyone who drives sports cars knows this feeling. The site owner says the road is easier today—you can believe half of that, but whether it’s really smooth depends on the next few kilometers ahead. Policy expectations and real interest rates have never been the same traffic light. For US stocks, crypto, and other risk assets, short-term sentiment is somewhat warm, but the long-end rates overhead are still pressing down. Whether they can rise depends on their mood.
I’ll note this as an observation point.
Personal record, not investment advice, don’t take it as a trade invitation.$CAP: Strong resistance at $0.072 after two failed breakouts. With ~85% locked, volatility remains high. Watch for a sustained break above $0.072.
$SOON: Up nearly 40% at peak with limited pullback. Only ~3–4% circulating, so concentration and volatility are high; shorting is risky.
$XPL: Back near pre-unlock levels after its post-unlock rally. Heavy supply may pressure price, but volatility remains elevated.
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #MicronAIMemoryOutlook #USTreasuryYieldsClimb NEAR has secured a new ticket, and the market is starting to do the detailed accounting
$NEAR's catalyst this round is quite specific: Bitwise spot ETF was listed on the NYSE on September 29, adding a new participation entry for brokerage accounts, and the fund also plans to start staking. It has risen 16% in the past seven days. The story now enters the second act: can the hype turn into continuous subscriptions, and how much of the fund's growth comes from net inflows? These two issues are more worth scrutinizing than the long-term target price. Especially, don't treat staking yields directly as extra profit; price volatility and management fees must be factored in.
$AAVE just heated up and then saw a pullback, dropping about 7.6% in the past day, but still up nearly 12% over the past week. It looks more like increased divergence after a rise, and one day alone can't determine the end of the trend. The biggest risk here is mistaking sharp drops during a rebound as bargains: if subsequent rebounds are weak and lows continue to move down, the recovery time could be extended. Conversely, if selling pressure eases and lost ground is recovered, it indicates demand hasn't dissipated. When the pace is fast, controlling position size is more important than rushing to prove your judgment right.
$BICO don't have the mindset of "others have risen, so it's my turn." The increase in the past month is only about 2.4%, and it hasn't yet shown sustained leadership in gains. Rotation doesn't happen by calling names on a list, and capital isn't obligated to make up for gains. What’s truly worth noting is whether it can break free from following: when the overall market is flat, it still has trading volume support, and after a pullback, it can recover faster. Such changes appearing continuously provide a basis to discuss an independent market. If there's only a single volume surge, treat it as short-term hype and watch more, act less. $CORE's weakness is truly a fundamental flaw, not a market overreaction. Four reasons:
1. Innate inflationary supply, selling pressure is structural
The total supply cap is 2.1 billion tokens, about 40% allocated to node mining, released over 81 years, with up to 90% of new tokens going directly to validators**. Miners/validators have the incentive to sell as soon as they receive tokens, which means there is constant token flooding daily, but demand hasn't kept up—this is the core problem.
2. The crash in March damaged the foundation
In March 2026, a massive whale sell-off on Colend triggered a chain liquidation, halving the price in a single day by 50%. Leveraged positions were wiped out, and confidence has yet to recover.
3. The "validator coin farming" scandal in September
A small group of validators exploited a reward loophole to claim tokens beyond the protocol's issuance cap. The team urgently hard-forked to fix it. Although 150 million excess tokens were burned, the exact amount overissued and whether any entered the market remain unclear for a long time. Coinbase and Korean exchanges temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals. This incident is fatal to the narrative of "controlled issuance."
4. The ecosystem failed to catch on, more promises than delivery
TVL shrank sharply from hundreds of millions of dollars at its peak. The flagship product, the Bitcoin debit card SatPay, repeatedly missed deadlines. The BTCFi profit buyback remains just a PowerPoint plan.
My judgment: Essentially, it is an "inflationary + strong cycle + poor execution" old project, only suitable for oversold rebounds, not as a core holding. If you're deeply trapped, don't cut losses at the bottom, but when it rebounds to the $0.025–0.03 resistance zone, reduce your position and move it to assets like SOL or UNI that have real cash flow. I have reviewed thousands of blueprints, and what I fear most is not a design that isn’t flashy enough, but a foundation that doesn’t match the ambition—$ATH is currently in the foundation footing pouring phase of this building, moving only 0.44% in 24 hours, with a fluctuation as narrow as a structural column. Most people think it’s stagnant, but what I see is the structure quietly finding its locking point.
First, look at the load-bearing system. The short-term RSI is only 31.1, already probing the edge of the oversold zone, while the long-term RSI at 48.2 is right near the neutral axis—this kind of short- and long-term cycle mismatch is called "upper and lower stiffness mismatch" in architecture, usually meaning short-term pressure but the main framework hasn’t collapsed. The price is hugging the lower band of the Bollinger short cycle, only -6% from the lower edge, while the mid-cycle position is at 25%, still 2.4% above the lower edge, indicating the supporting columns below haven’t been breached, only the shear walls are absorbing horizontal loads.
The real entry logic is hidden in that signal: the one-hour RSI falling below 38, a sign of structural self-repair. I don’t chase highs; I wait for the floor slab to fall back into place before grouting.
📈 Long:
Entry: Current price minus 3.5% (retracement to the footing layer)
Take Profit 1: 5.4% above entry price (first ring beam)
Take Profit 2: 7.3% above entry price (top floor capping line)
Stop Loss: 13.2% below entry price (settlement red line; if broken, withdraw the blueprint)
Risk control is my structural safety factor. A 7.3% top cover space versus a 13.2% settlement threshold—this isn’t gambling, it’s the actuarial calculation of load and redundancy. Most people see the 0.44% sideways movement and walk away, not knowing the more immovable the foundation, the better it can support the high-rise later. $ATH’s blueprint isn’t finished, but the rebar is already on site. The structure is intact, the axis is not deviated, I’m just waiting for this one retracement structural column to land. #strategyplaybookMON rose about 20.8%, with contract open interest increasing about 43% in 24 hours, yet the funding rate turned negative at -0.025%.
As of 11:36 Beijing time, OKX spot price is about $0.03221, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $11.86 million; the daily high was $0.033, the low $0.0265, with a volatility of about 24.5%, and the current price is about 2.4% below the high.
OKX hourly statistics show that the number of open contracts rose from about 18.35 million 24 hours ago to about 26.26 million, with an additional increase of about 2.1% in the last hour. The perpetual price is about 0.19% lower than the spot price. Both price and open interest are rising simultaneously, but short-term funding still leans toward shorting or hedging.
My judgment is that this rally involves new leverage participation, but a negative funding rate does not necessarily mean a short squeeze will follow. The most common misjudgment is to count all new open interest as shorts; if buying pressure cannot continue to absorb, both long and short positions at high levels may become selling pressure during a pullback.
Next, watch $0.033 and $0.03. If the previous high is broken without a rapid increase in open interest and the discount narrows significantly, it is closer to shorts being passively covered; if it falls below $0.03 while open interest remains high, new leverage is more likely to amplify the pullback.
$MON $XCH invested in Singapore and established a fully licensed PayPal European bank in Luxembourg.
After leaving PayPal at the end of 2009, Stoops briefly joined Skype's finance team to help
prepare the company for its future S-1 filing and ultimately the successful sale to Microsoft.
In early 2011. In 2012, Stoops became Netflix's first international employee, serving as the finance lead
in Europe until the company relocated its European operations from Luxembourg to
Amsterdam. By then, Stoops had settled in Luxembourg and chose to return to PayPal in 2013.
This time serving as EU legal counsel and chief data protection/privacy officer. At the end of 2014,
Stoops joined the Japanese multinational Rakuten as general counsel and data protection officer
for Europe, where he again obtained a full European banking charter.
He simultaneously managed regulatory affairs and advised the group's European-registered holdings;
including Viber, Kobo, and multiple national e-commerce marketplaces. Along the way, Mr.
Stoops served on the boards of group companies such as eBay, BlackBerry (RIM),
Skype, and other software firms, with expertise in group financial reporting and controls. Currently, Mr.
Stoops leads an early-stage banking technology startup planning to obtain a
Luxembourg EU regulatory license. Chuck is an active advisor and investor in "Exchange
Space" companies,Yesterday the market received somewhat positive inflation data, but after BTC surged to $85,500, it quickly retreated. This actually highlights the core issue in the market right now: it's not a lack of positive news, but a lack of capital confirmation. Cooling PCE and continued weekly increases in stablecoin supply are positive signals; however, at the same time, spot ETFs for BTC, ETH, and SOL all turned to net outflows, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain relatively strong. Therefore, my current definition of the market remains: high-level oscillation + structural rotation, not yet a full Risk-on. 📊 BTC and ETH stabilize, SOL continues to weaken As of 11:36 HKT: BTC $83,448, 24h +0.26% ETH $2,685.83, 24h +0.61% SOL $118.01, 24h -1.04% Total crypto market cap approximately: $2.871 trillion, 24h -2.65% BTC dominance: 58.25% Fear and Greed Index: 74 — Greed From the price perspective, BTC and ETH basically remain flat, while SOL continues to weaken. But what is truly noteworthy is: while BTC and ETH are rising, the total crypto market cap still declined by 2.65%. This indicates that market breadth is still insufficient. Capital has not fully entered altcoins but continues to concentrate on BTC, ETH, and a few projects with independent catalysts. There is also clear differentiation within major coins. NEAR: +6.90% Renzo launches Renzo Basis, with the core selling point summed up in two words: transparency.
According to Renzo, the new product is designed for highly volatile markets, with risk and liquidity no longer concentrated in stablecoins or a single vault, but maintained at 100% on-chain verifiable, allowing users to directly confirm whether they are affected by related events.
What is even more noteworthy is the change in the underlying assets of ezETH. Renzo states that from April 26, 2026, ezETH will be supported solely by native ETH; the redemption queue migrating from Lido stETH to native ETH currently only has 214.75 ETH left, about 0.5%.
What does this mean?
First, the underlying asset structure of ezETH is simpler, reducing reliance on third-party LST.
Second, on-chain transparency becomes an important component of DeFi competitiveness, enabling users to directly verify assets and risks rather than relying solely on platform disclosures.
Third, Renzo is further advancing "yield products" towards "verifiable risk management."
Personal observation: After experiencing various risk events in DeFi over the past few years, the market's focus on "yield" is gradually shifting towards "what exactly are the assets and where are the risks." 100% on-chain verifiability may become a key competitive dimension for future DeFi products.
In the short term, pay attention to ezETH liquidity and fund size; in the medium to long term, watch whether Renzo Basis can convert its transparency advantage into real capital growth. Brothers, tough day overall 😫
$ETH: 20X long, +176U (+38%). Holding strong, watching 2,600.
$BTC: 20X long, -150U (-21%). Holding unless 83K breaks.
$GRASS: 20X short, -18U (-2.8%). Small position, stop-loss set.
#PCE今晚关键 #美光财报临近 #美债30年收益率突破5.6%
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #MicronAIMemoryOutlook #USTreasuryYieldsClimb Happy National Day on October 1st!
This week's four major market observations:
$BTC 4H snapshot price around $83,648, core support at $83,000—$82,560, resistance at $85,000—$85,650. Only by breaking above $85,650 can the upward space reopen.
$ETH around $2,691, support at $2,660—$2,616, only after breaking $2,789 will there be conditions for a catch-up acceleration.
$XAU Gold around $4,166, still below EMA30 and EMA120, $4,116 is the defense level, $4,200—$4,293 is the rebound confirmation zone.
Nasdaq 100 around 30,585 points, key support at 30,377—30,249. Stable risk appetite in US stocks is favorable for BTC to hold at high levels.
This week, focus on the US dollar, real yields, nonfarm payroll expectations, and holiday liquidity. During the A-share National Day holiday closure, low trading volume can easily amplify spikes; do not treat a single candlestick as trend confirmation.
Intraweek strategy: wait for BTC to pull back, ETH to break through, gold to be viewed as repairing first, Nasdaq to hold above 30,249 to maintain risk appetite. Reduce leverage during the holiday, do not chase the first breakout candle.
This is only a market viewpoint and does not constitute investment advice. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
Last night, Micron delivered better-than-expected earnings and directly raised its guidance for the next quarter, providing reassurance to the AI industry chain and temporarily dispelling market concerns about "weakening AI demand." The core highlight is that HBM+ server storage volume and prices are rising together, with over 75% of capacity for 2027 already locked in by major customers. Management explicitly stated that supply-demand tightness will continue at least until 2028, and the AI capital expenditure boom cycle is longer than many institutions anticipated.
✅Key points breakdown
1. Data center business is the growth core, with a quarter-on-quarter surge of 56%. Large-scale shipments of HBM4, AI server memory, and SSDs continue to be in short supply. The storage chip price increase cycle is not over yet, which is the main driver behind this round of earnings beating expectations.
2. Orders are secured through long-term strategic agreements with guaranteed minimum revenue, no longer relying solely on short-term market price speculation. Profit resilience is strengthened, and the fundamentals of the AI industry chain are further solidified.
3. Risk points: Although demand is strong, gross margin peaked and declined this quarter. After future capacity expansions, the potential for gross margin improvement will be limited. It is not advisable to blindly expect a continuous unilateral surge in chip prices.#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
📊 The expectation for a rate hike has been delayed again, and now the entire market's eyes are fixed on the September non-farm payroll data.
Simply put, this data is currently the Fed's only "remote control."
📈 If the data is too strong (booming employment), rate hike expectations will revive on the spot, US Treasury yields will soar further, and BTC is very likely to continue taking hits around the 83,000 level.
📉 If the data cools down, the rate hike alarm will be lifted, risk assets can catch a breath, and BTC will have a chance to rebound toward 85,000.
In terms of strategy, just one sentence: don't bet on the data.
In this chaotic macro era, hold your spot positions firmly, control your contract trades, and keep your U safe. Once the data lands, the direction will naturally emerge, so don't catch a falling knife.
Where do you think the non-farm payrolls will take BTC?👇$BTC Midday Review｜Prices rose, but not completely happy
$HYPE surged then pulled back, with floating profits slightly retreating; $BICO weakly rebounded, but trapped positions remain unmoved.
This is probably the most conflicted state for contract traders: on one hand relieved to still have a lifeline, on the other unable to let go of that stubborn obsession.
✅$HYPE｜88.95, midday +3.64%
Whale total holdings reached 246.34M, with 796 whale longs vs 390 shorts, longs still overwhelmingly dominant; but the nominal long-short ratio dropped to 114.77%, short profit ratio reversed to 51.02%, some big players have started cashing out.
I am 20x fully long, opened at 73.897, current floating profit **+2286.90U, +342.05%**
Profit shrinkage is not an alarm, but margin ratio is only 4.19%, position still on a knife edge.
Strategy: Trend hasn’t broken yet, but beware of whales selling in batches, no chasing highs, prioritize protecting existing profits.
❌$BICO｜0.02178, midday +3.91%
Small rebound looks tempting, but opening smart money reveals the truth: 226 whale longs mostly trapped, average entry 0.02314; shorts average entry 0.02232, still steadily profitable. Long profit ratio only 34.07%.
I am 8x fully long, opened at 0.03496, floating loss **-1329.06U, -483.48%**, margin ratio 4.19%, still high risk.
This increase is just an oversold rebound, not a reversal signal.
Strategy: Absolutely no averaging down, every rally is a window to reduce positions and escape, survival is more important than breaking even.
Heartfelt words:
The money earned from $HYPE has been filling the hole for $BICO.
I clearly have been profiting from the trend, yet still dragged emotionally by a single obsession.
The harshest thing in the market is never a crash,
it’s giving you a little hope but not letting you fully break free.
Following the trend is luck, knowing when to stop is skill; holding a position stubbornly is unwillingness, not faith.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 On the surface, it looks calm, but underneath, there's actually a quiet change of breath 🫧 What you see is resilience, or is the buying volume thinning? BTC is hovering around 83.5K, ETH is holding near 2.67K, both still above key support levels. At first glance, it looks stable, right? But after watching for a while, it feels more like "no one is in a hurry to sell, and no one is particularly eager to chase." This kind of calm is completely different in nature from the previous volume-driven rally. Let's look at the structure first. BTC needs to reclaim 85K to have the qualification to talk about momentum again; ETH is holding between 2.64K–2.65K, as long as this line isn't broken, the bullish narrative can still hold. ETFs are still seeing net inflows, but the pace is slowing down, which is very important. It means marginal buying hasn't disappeared, it's just becoming more expensive and selective. So what exactly is the market trading? I think it's not "whether it will rise," but "who is still willing to add positions amid uncertainty." The probability of a rate hike in October and macro variables like Micron's earnings report are hanging overhead, risk appetite hasn't expanded, but rather contracted. Funds prefer to stay in BTC, which has the highest certainty, ETH is holding firm on its own support, and altcoins find it even harder to get attention. The bullish path is clear: as long as 85K is effectively reclaimed, sentiment will quickly recover, ETH will follow with a catch-up rally, and the slow ETF inflows will be reinterpreted as "patient accumulation." But the risk is also hidden here—if inflows slow down and turn into outflows, or if BTC repeatedly fails to break 85K, the support will shift from a "defensive position" to a "breakdown" Don't aim for the optimal; you have to make sacrifices. Adding to your position on floating profits is also when you're close to the liquidation line. A high win rate isn't necessarily good; making small profits but suffering big losses is the path to liquidation.$CORE shouting towards decentralization? First, look at the token distribution data; this slogan is truly ironic!
The CORE project team claims to be taking the first step towards decentralization. But the facts in front of us cannot be ignored: the top ten token-holding addresses control nearly 90% of the tokens, indicating a highly concentrated distribution; at the end of August, a token issuance event occurred, and to this day, there has been no formal and complete official explanation.
Stable block production is just the most basic duty of a public chain, yet it is packaged as a major milestone. The announcement vaguely states "in the coming months" some block production roles will be handed over, with no exact implementation time or verifiable quantitative indicators, just a long-term verbal plan.
Many promoters keep saying the project team has been working hard. But it is important to distinguish: writing announcements and polishing promotional rhetoric is fundamentally different from truly achieving decentralization and implementing a usable ecosystem.
On one hand, they loudly promote a grand vision of decentralization, while on the other, tokens are tightly held by a few addresses; they claim to be a future financial public chain, yet on-chain active DApps and real users remain scarce long-term. Additionally, with token releases continuing for 81 years, new tokens keep flooding in, continuously diluting ordinary holders' assets.
True decentralization has never been achieved by shouting slogans in an announcement. Highly concentrated token holdings and vague token issuance events, no matter how splendid the narrative, cannot hide the core contradictions.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Content related to virtual currencies is only personal opinion sharing and does not constitute investment advice. Our country explicitly prohibits virtual currency-related business; please do not participate.The tech world is buzzing tonight: Huawei Mate90 debuts with a sensor-equipped modular camera, and HarmonyOS devices have surpassed 90 million. Domestic substitution and hardware independence—each narrative grander than the last.
A reminder to friends using leverage: no matter how big the narrative, it’s not a reason to trade tonight. Stories like "domestic substitution" and the "AI revolution" span decades and have basically nothing to do with whether you should open a position now or go long or short.
The market only recognizes two things—interest rates and liquidity. The 30-year US Treasury at 5.6% is fixed there; no matter how sexy the story, it has to clear this hurdle first. $BTC is grinding with low volume—not because the future is doubted, but because money is too expensive right now.
Don’t use a telescope to do the work of a microscope. BTC current price $83,502
📉【First Support】82,600 - 83,000
This is the bottom zone repeatedly tested over the past 7 days, with a low dip to $82,581 that was bought back, marking a key line of contention between bulls and bears. Only a break below here would indicate a real downturn.
📉【Second Support】81,500 - 82,000
If 82,600 fails to hold, the next catch zone is roughly here, a deep water area only reached by panic sellers.
📈【Upper Resistance】84,900 - 85,500
The 7-day high of $85,518 is near here; rebounds to this level are likely to be pushed back.
✨✨✨✨✨
🎯【Trading Advice】It is recommended to mainly observe and not rush to chase. If you want to buy the dip, wait for a pullback to the 82,600-83,000 range and try a light long position; cut losses decisively if it breaks below 82,500, don’t hold stubbornly.
🧠【Core Basis】The 7-day range is $82,581-$85,518, currently $83,502 is stuck near the lower middle edge, volume has not expanded, indicating a narrow range consolidation phase with no clear direction yet.First lesson of earnings season: all numbers exceed expectations, but the stock price initially stays flat
Revenue $54.2 billion, while the market originally expected only $50.5 billion; next quarter guidance directly raised to $61.5 billion, consensus was only $56.8 billion; earnings per share $33.42, expected $31.16. All three metrics revised upward, no apparent flaws on paper. But the after-hours trading barely moved in the first hour, whereas last time at the same point it rose 14.4%. My judgment is that the good news was already priced into the stock price near 1065 before the earnings report, and the gross margin guidance of 86.25% is even slightly lower than this quarter's 87%. The real test will be the first hour after the U.S. market opens tonight; last time it was during that hour that the price was hammered down 9%. Whether it will happen again this time is worth watching.
$MUAfter high volatility in $ZEC, is there still sustained buying interest in privacy coins?
OKX spot 24-hour range is approximately 1,391–1,494, with a trading volume of about 74.31 million USDT. The current price is located in the lower half of the range. The privacy narrative can attract attention, but trading depth, regulatory expectations, and leveraged positions will collectively amplify volatility; price increases alone do not equate to real usage growth.
If the 1-hour chart shows volume reclaiming 1,494 and holding the pullback, I will raise my judgment on the continuation of strength; if 1,391 is lost with expanding volume, it is more likely that high-level chips are continuing to be cleared.This August's core PCE: year-on-year 3.0%, month-on-month 0.2%, both below market expectations (expected year-on-year 3.3%, month-on-month 0.3%), which is the core trigger point for this market movement. The market interpretation is not "inflation is falling, so rate cuts are possible," but rather that inflation is marginally cooling down, yet still far from the 2% target, categorized as "easing but not a victory." The first reaction of funds was to lower the probability of a rate hike in October, but they dare not bet unilaterally on easing; the focus of the game shifts to this Friday's nonfarm payrolls. 1. Changes in interest rate expectations (CME FedWatch) Before the data release, the probability of a 25bp rate hike in October was close to 47%; after the data came out, it was directly revised down to 38.2%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 52.9%. Mainstream market interpretation: This PCE reading reduces the necessity of a rate hike in October but does not completely rule out the option. Key points: Core PCE month-on-month 0.2%, if maintained for several consecutive months at this growth rate, the annualized rate would be just about 2.4%, still some distance from 2%, so the Federal Reserve will not declare inflation under control based on this; Consumer spending is strong, with August real personal consumption expenditure month-on-month +0.6%, indicating that the purchasing power resilience of U.S. residents remains, the economy has not weakened, and inflation stickiness risks remain; The BEA simultaneously revised historical inflation statistical standards, with institutions reminding that part of this low reading comes from statistical adjustments and is not entirely a real price decline, so conclusions cannot be drawn based on this single month of data alone. Official stance (Kashkari): acknowledges data improvement but emphasizes inflation is still too high and does not rule out another hike within the year, straight【Overall Crude Oil BZ Monthly Chart for October 2026】
Last quarter, we accurately identified the low point and took a mid-term long position around 71, which was basically the lowest point. Although we took some losses, the overall pattern was smaller, and we missed out on a lot. It’s unrealistic to catch the highest point, but reaching around 93 is entirely possible. We also correctly identified the highest point and opened a short position there. The losses on the short were not less than the gains on the long, but it was possible to take profit. With 5x leverage, a 10-point gain equals a 50% return, which means we missed out on quite a bit. If there’s another good mid-term opportunity this quarter, we’ll adjust our strategy.
Current Analysis - Monthly Level - Overall
1. There is a probability this quarter will break above last quarter’s high, but it’s not large—at least not currently. Even if it breaks, it will be only slightly, not by much. Whether it will break below last quarter’s low is currently unclear.
2. The probability of the monthly chart breaking above last month’s high is low. The monthly chart could reach 103 or approach 84.
3. The weekly chart shows clear oscillation or a bearish bias, which is the current state of crude oil. It should be viewed as oscillating with a bearish bias.
4. Crude oil can be traded short-term, with short-term decisions made intraday.
Tentative swing trading plan: open short near 103, target around 90 or below, with a minimum target near 85 【October 1, 2026 - Gold - Monthly Chart - Overall】
The overall judgment last quarter was to expect consolidation or a short position around the 4600 level; this view was correct, though the entry was a bit early.
Last month's judgment was that the quarterly high had already been reached; the monthly chart for last month would neither break the high nor the low, so prioritizing a short position was also reasonable.
Current analysis: Monthly level - overall - highest level
1. The quarterly chart remains in a bullish pattern, with support around 3450. Looking only at the quarterly chart: there is a probability this quarter could break below last quarter's low, but there is no clear sign of that happening. Even if it does break below last quarter's low, it will rebound. There is a chance this quarter will approach 4400.
The best choice on the quarterly chart is to open long positions near 3500, but this probability is low this quarter. The second choice is below 3900, at the 5-day and weekly rebound points, to buy in batches. Shorting on the quarterly chart is only considered after breaking last quarter's high.
2. The monthly chart is contracting; if the contraction continues, it could eventually break below the midline, but that would take a long time. Even if it breaks, it would reach an ideal bullish point on the quarterly chart.
Whether it breaks below the midline this month is uncertain; looking only at the monthly chart, it is not obvious, but the weekly 5-day moving average suggests a probability. However, if it breaks below 3900, it should rebound.
The high point this month could be above 4300, close to 4400, but judging the monthly range solely by monthly technicals and market sentiment is difficult.
3. Gold's support and resistance levels are not very reliable, so they are not detailed here.
Currently, the weekly chart has room to fall below, as does the 5-day moving average, but the 3-day moving average clearly cannot fall further. The daily chart likely can reach 4188. The 3-day moving average might approach 4260, but the probability of breaking 4400 is low. The daily chart is unlikely to break above 4265 today.
At present, it is clearly a long bias, but it might only be a short-term long. Even if conditions are not ideal, a small profit is likely. A better target is near 4260, but anything higher is uncertain.
Mid-term weekly chart has room below, and so does the 5-day moving average. If the weekly technicals bottom out, there is a rebound point below 3900. Consider buying in batches 3-5 times, with a backup position near 3500. The probability of needing to add is low; position size should be decided based on probability at that time.
Personal view: The current short-term position is to open long, but it might only be a short-term long.
The main strategy for this month or quarter is the two opening methods mentioned above as the first and second choices, both long positions.
The current wave is no longer considered within range. Tomorrow's non-farm payroll data is relevant for gold.
For gold, patiently wait for the conditions I mentioned. If a clear move of over 100 points appears, consider capturing it.【2026 BTC October 1st Monthly Chart - Overall】
Last month's judgment was that the probability of breaking below the previous month's low was small, and the probability of rising was greater. In terms of operation, the priority was to choose long positions or wait for opportunities to open shorts. Our choice to go long on SOL was correct; the SOL monthly chart had a chance to break higher, but unfortunately it dropped the next day. The timing to short BTC was right, but the downward momentum was not strong, so it could only be considered a short-term gain.
Current analysis - Monthly level - Highest level - Overall:
1. Last month closed with a bullish candle with upper and lower wicks, near the middle band of the monthly chart. KDJ is about to enter overbought but hasn't yet; it will take 1-2 more months to top out and turn down, so there is no monthly-level decline, only technical pullback.
In other words, unless other levels experience a big drop, the monthly level will not actively cause a decline ignoring smaller-level technicals. Put differently, smaller levels have more autonomy.
Looking only at the monthly chart, the probability of breaking below last month's low is small, but this month’s range cannot be predicted by feel alone because more control lies at smaller levels, which will be discussed later.
2. Last quarter closed with a big bullish candle. Looking only at the quarterly chart, the probability of breaking below last month's low is small, but this quarter has mixed small rises and falls, so the quarterly chart is currently not a reliable reference.
3. The current market has broken above 82,800, meaning the market has temporarily escaped the continuation of the downtrend and entered an upward consolidation. As I said before, even breaking this line only means entering consolidation; breaking the 120,000 high is not possible.
So overall, we need to judge the possible consolidation range, pullbacks or declines, and a few points of rise to focus on for operations.
Support levels: 1. Around 75,500, this is the boundary line between bulls and bears below. Before the market clearly breaks below this line, treat it as consolidation or upward movement.
2. Next support at 63,000; if 75,500 is not broken, this line is not considered. Only when the bull-bear boundary line shows clear signs of breaking should this be considered; currently, it is not a reference point.
Resistance levels: 1. The next key resistance above is near 93,800, where a swing short opportunity is expected.
2. A higher resistance at 113,000, which has a monthly-level probability. Even if reached, it would take at least 4 months or more. The possibility this quarter is very small, and even approaching it would likely be preceded by a large drop of 30,000 points as a base.
In other words, this month's possible range is between 76,000 and 94,000. The lower bull-bear boundary line has not been broken, providing a slightly larger level of upward potential. Priority is to consider stop-loss at the bull-bear boundary line and open a long once, then fluctuate near the first key resistance above, and consider swing shorts.
Long or short positions not near the edges of this range are only considered short-term or short swing trades.
Current view: The market is currently in an upward bullish technical recovery. The current technical recovery has reached the 2-day moving average, which has a chance to break below the middle band, but the 3-5 day moving averages have formed a bullish trend. The 5-day moving average clearly does not have the ability to break below the bull-bear boundary line. Around 77,000 is the point to open longs.
So the current choices are two: one is to open longs after a short-term short, and the other is to open longs near 77,000 with stop-loss at the bull-bear boundary line. The reason for not scaling into longs is because the 2-day moving average also has a chance to break below the middle band.
Possible swings or mid-term moves this month: 1. Near 77,000 plus or minus 1,000 points, there is a slightly larger level of upward potential. If the bull-bear boundary line on the quarterly chart is not broken, stop-loss at 75,000 and open longs once, aiming to break above with a target near 93,000.
2. Swing short near 93,000, consider after approaching.
As for how to open short-term trades, it will be judged intraday. I might open short-term trades, but likely with small positions.