Orbit Post Sitemap
Originally, I just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up serving me dumplings for half a year. Last night at dawn, watching $USELESS, before the market fully started, I saw the support below wasn't broken, the buying pressure gradually strengthened, and the pullback didn't break through. At that moment, I suggested going long on USELESS, buy if the pullback holds, don't chase after it once it rockets up. As a result, it climbed from 0.16315 all the way to 0.29650, a return of +816.97%. That profit feels great.
The market waits for the right moment, profits come from holding.
Take profit on 70% first, pocket the bulk. Keep the remaining 30% at cost price as protection; if it continues to rise, let the profits run, if it falls back, don't let gains turn into pain. Don't mess with your position size, timing is more important than anything, don't be greedy for the last bite.
Don't get inflated by profits, don't despair over pullbacks.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next signal to move, I'll notify you immediately, no need to rush, there will be more opportunities.
$ETH $ADA Long and Short Crowding List
$F negative funding rate is at a historical sample low, with shorts bearing the settlement cost: current rate -0.6822%, at the 1st percentile among the last 100 single settlement samples; total of 6 settled rates in the past 24 hours is -0.998%; price dropped 2.29%, open interest changed +9.18%.
$ONE price is rising, shorts still bear the funding cost: current rate -0.1314%, at the 31st percentile among the last 100 single settlement samples; total of 24 settled rates in the past 24 hours is -2.826%; price increased 12.46%, open interest changed +21.41%.
$SNDK negative funding rate is at a historical sample low, with shorts bearing the settlement cost: current rate -0.0755%, at the 1st percentile among the last 100 single settlement samples; total of 3 settled rates in the past 24 hours is -0.008%; price dropped 0.28%, open interest changed -0.30%.
F, SNDK: At the current funding rate settlement, funding fees are paid by shorts to longs, with the negative funding rate magnitude at an extreme side of historical samples.Fed remains hawkish, the CLARITY Act stalled, and oil stays elevated — yet crypto is holding up. The interesting part is where liquidity is moving. 🟢 $ETH — Tokenization and L2 narratives are attracting attention; direction depends on sustained spot demand. ⚡ $SOL — Higher-beta capital is flowing toward its ecosystem, keeping volatility elevated. 💧 $UNI — Payment and ETF narratives remain active despite regulatory uncertainty. 😂 Macro says “be careful.” Altcoins say “just one more green candlThis time, the crypto exchange is not adding trading pairs first but is pushing US stock perpetuals into the US licensing process.
According to Coinbase's statement on 9/18 and reports from Cointelegraph/Wall Street Journal, Coinbase Derivatives has applied to the CFTC to list single-stock perpetual futures, initially about 50–60 contracts, naming Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia, etc.; claiming to be the first US single-stock perpetuals, offering approximately 24/5 continuous exposure with no fixed expiration date, tracking stock prices but not holding the underlying shares, with no voting rights or dividends. The company states it is built on the already launched US crypto perpetual market; qualified overseas users have been able to trade some US stock/index perpetuals since March, while US domestic approval is still pending. The CFTC side shows the approval is pending; previously on 9/1, they also submitted Form 1-N to the SEC, laying the groundwork for registering a national exchange for securities futures purposes. Crypto Times: COIN closed up about 11.53% on Friday to approximately $194.03, with a market cap of about $51.29 billion, against the backdrop of BTC returning above about $80,000. OKX spot BTC is about 81390 (24h open about 76732, up about 6%), ETH about 2616 (24h open about 2455, up about 6.5%). Filing ≠ launched; the final products and timeline may still change. $BTC $ETH Review: Yesterday in $ETH, no obvious intention of a sharp drop was found in the marked short squeeze zone.
After the macro narrative is completed, the market should be taken over by technicals and liquidity.
A large amount of leverage has accumulated in this sideways range. Everyone knows there will be a second rate hike, with support at the bottom. The 55% probability of a rate hike easily attracts many left-side shorts, so the probability of a short squeeze is quite high. Moreover, the short squeeze zone yesterday could easily trigger consecutive upward squeezes.
After observing for two days post-FOMC, the left-side entry points were before FOMC, with too much macro uncertainty, so I gave up left-side and switched to right-side trading.
Yesterday, $ETH entered on the right side at 2484, reduced position at 2507, lowering the cost basis above the stop loss at 2430. The remaining position is for playing a larger short squeeze game.
For the upcoming market, I also mentioned yesterday that next month’s Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, and PPI might be turning points. Currently, spot support is limited, still treating it as a short squeeze scenario. For $ETH, there is over 100 million in short liquidity above at 2697, over 200 million at 2776, while liquidity below is almost depleted. It would take a drop to 2380 to trigger over 200 million in short liquidations. So although spot support is limited now, whether the short squeeze is over is still unknown. The left-side short entry is at 2634, currently reacting moderately. The stop loss for shorts should be placed above 2720, with mediocre cost-effectiveness, so only light positions are recommended.
Currently, still cautious about shorting, observe more, and wait for exhaustion signals. #美联储10月再加息概率破55% Every time Dogecoin rises, two groups deserve thanks: those who take losses and those who short it.
On the day of the drop, someone stared at the screen for three hours, finger hovering over the sell button, then closed their eyes and hit confirm. The chips they handed over didn’t disappear; they just changed hands. The next day when the price recovered, they deleted their chat history and never spoke in the group again.
The shorts are even more dedicated. They place orders late at night, set stop losses, write long posts arguing that Dogecoin is worthless, with solid data and coherent logic. When the price moves up a notch, they close a position; when it moves up another notch, they close another. Every liquidation order is a step up in price, laid down by their own hands.
The Doge whales don’t do charity. The market needs counterparties, needs someone to hand over chips at the bottom, needs shorts to fuel the bulls. If no one takes losses, who will buy in? If no one shorts, what will ignite the rally?
So there’s no need to persuade or argue. Run if you must, short if you must; that’s your contribution to $DOGE. I’ll handle the dirty, hard work of going long. If one day you want to come back, the chips will still be there, but the price won’t be the same.[Weekend Observation] SOL≈113 (+11%) leads the rally, is the altcoin beta here or just following the trend?
Facts: OKX spot SOL≈113.2 (about +10.9% in 24h), BTC≈81125 (about +5.8%). External reports show BSOL trading volume expanding, futures market short liquidations dominate, leverage noise louder than spot.
Judgment: The leading rally narrative is clear, but weekend liquidity is thin, making it easy to confuse "beta start" with "short squeeze aftershocks." True rotation depends on the quality of the pullback, not just the magnitude of the surge.
Next to watch: Whether SOL holds near 110 on the pullback, relative strength versus BTC, and if spot follows futures on Monday. No promises on returns. Are you siding with beta start or short squeeze aftershocks?BTC Today's Market Analysis | After the rally, the market enters a divergence phase (9.19). After a strong rally, BTC has reached a critical resistance level, and short-term bull-bear tug-of-war has clearly intensified. Bitcoin drives the entire market, and the direction chosen in the future will directly determine the rhythm of mainstream coins. 1. Brief Market Summary After a short-term rebound, bullish sentiment has warmed up, but RSI has already reached a relatively high range, accumulating considerable profit-taking in the short term. This round of gains mainly comes from the absorption of macro negative factors, continued ETF capital inflows driving buying, and concentrated short positions closing to boost a wave of gains. The market is no longer in a one-sided surge pattern; the probability of high-level shakeout has increased. 2. Core Factors Affecting the Market 1. After the Federal Reserve's interest rate was implemented, the market temporarily breathed a sigh of relief, and risk assets entered a recovery window; However, the subsequent US dollar trend remains uncertain, and the macro situation has not fully improved. 2. Spot ETF capital flows are an important barometer; if funds flow out later, it could easily trigger a rapid correction. 3. Leverage in the futures market increases, and at high levels, both long and short positions can easily experience intense volatility, causing frequent short-term shakeouts. 3. Key Support and Resistance Ranges ✅ Short-term strong support: 78,200-78,600 If this area is tested on a pullback, if buying support remains, the bullish trend will temporarily hold. ✅ Defense bottom line: 76,300 Once this level is effectively broken, the current rebound structure will be broken, triggering a deeper pullback. 🚨 First resistance: 81,800 Second resistance: 83,500-84,000 Price desireBTC surged straight to 81,000, and those chasing now will most likely be stuck 🧊
BTC pushed from around 76,000 all the way above 81,000, with a very fast short-term rise and a significant amplitude.
The most common mistake at times like this is to chase only after seeing the price rise. But after a sharp increase, the real key is not how much more it can rise, but whether there will be buyers at the first pullback.
If the price can hold steady around 80,000 on the pullback and then launch another attack towards 81,300-82,000, the short-term structure will be clear and the breakout meaningful. But if 80,000 doesn't hold and the rebound fails to recover, caution is needed—the market may look for support lower down again.
Sharp rises require support, breakouts require confirmation.
There is no shortage of opportunities now, but what’s missing is a clearer signal. Wait for it to develop on its own before making a move—it’s not too late. About $531 million liquidated across the entire network in one day
Short positions about $471 million, long positions only about $59.51 million
According to CoinGlass data, about 108,000 people were liquidated in the past day, with shorts almost filling the entire market. On the Ethereum side alone, short positions are around $85 million. When the price pushes up from the low, leveraged short positions are forced to cover. As buy orders stack up, the price gets more and more squeezed. Bitcoin pulled back to about 80,000, and Ethereum also rose above about 2,600. A large part of this is the short squeeze helping to push the price.
A reminder to everyone: this pattern explains why the price surged quickly, but it doesn't mean it will hold afterward. Everyone is definitely more concerned now about whether there will be buyers to take over the spot after the shorts are squeezed out, not just about the liquidation numbers looking good $ONE That spike was created by stop-loss orders piling up themselves
That spike at dawn pulled from 0.0009750 to 0.0021534.
Someone took long positions at the peak.
How this number is calculated:
It more than doubled in 15 minutes, then dropped 8.96% to 0.0015975.
Working backward, those chasing the high almost bought at the top.
What I actually did:
Opened a long near the peak, betting it would keep rising.
Placed stop-loss just below, thinking it could hold.
The moment it triggered:
When the price reversed, it first swept out a batch of stop-losses.
These stop-losses are market sell orders, pushing the price down further.
The next batch of stop-losses got swept too, that's how the spike formed.
It's true to control your hands, but more importantly, understand the cause of that spike.
Stop-loss orders placed in dense ranges have already been swept away.
#ZEC逼近1600美元，多空博弈升温 $ONE Risk Hedging Correlation Perspective: BTC and Gold Correlation Must Also Distinguish Stages
Many times BTC and gold $XAU fluctuate synchronously, but the asset attributes of the two are essentially different.
Risk Hedging Stage: When geopolitical crises arise, both strengthen synchronously, with $BTC playing the narrative role of digital gold.
Risk Asset Sell-off Stage: With macro tightening and similarly bearish environments, BTC, as a high-beta asset, will decline significantly more than gold. Do not simply bind the two completely; distinguish which type of market environment currently applies.
Key Market Observations:
🟠 Gold: Traditional safe-haven asset trend
🔵 BTC: Difference in the amplitude of rise and fall between the two
⚠️ Market Phenomenon: Gold's resistance to decline does not mean Bitcoin can withstand macro bearish shocks in the same way.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% Good morning everyone, $SOL has been quite strong this week. On the day of the interest rate decision, it was still around ninety-six, and now it has pulled up to around one hundred thirteen, one hundred fourteen. It rose more than ten points in just over a day; short covering combined with the market easing has directly broken through the one hundred five level of trapped positions. But don't take this move as a confirmation of a new trend yet; it looks more like an accelerated rebound from oversold conditions.
In the coming week, the key is whether it can hold above one hundred ten. If it holds, the next target is one hundred eighteen to one hundred twenty; if it doesn't hold, it could easily fall back to around one hundred five or one hundred to digest. The Fed has finished raising rates, and the dot plot remains hawkish, so liquidity hasn't suddenly loosened. This kind of rise in altcoins often comes quickly and retraces quickly as well. If trading volume doesn't keep up from the weekend to the first half of next week, it's a typical "pump and wait for someone to catch the bag" scenario.
The mid-term stories like upgrades and ecosystem development are still ongoing, but this week the direction is still decided by Bitcoin and risk appetite. I tend to think it will oscillate at a high level between one hundred five and one hundred eighteen, rather than doubling again in a single direction. It's better to wait for a pullback than to chase the highs; reduce enthusiasm after breaking one hundred ten.📊 Overnight Market Last night at 8 PM, BTC was still hovering around the 78000 mark. After the US stock market opened, a series of regulatory positives came out — the SEC introduced a five-year "innovation exemption" giving the green light to tokenized trading, ETF funds flowed back in, combined with a short squeeze, BTC surged straight from 77600 to 81500, reaching a high of 81507, up over 6.5% in 24h, hitting the highest level since September 4; ETH was even stronger, breaking 2600 and reaching a high of 2646, up nearly 8%; SOL and HYPE rose over 11%. Over 110,000 liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, mostly shorts. But two signals deserve attention: the Fear & Greed Index jumped from 56 to 71 in one day, officially entering the greed zone; BTC broke above the Bollinger upper band (% B 101.7), indicating short-term overbought conditions. The short squeeze is real, but chasing the rally is truly risky. ⚔️ Today's Levels BTC: Resistance at 81500 (early morning high), 82000, 83000; Support at 80000 (round number + breakdown retest), 78500. ETH: Resistance at 2650 (early morning high), 2700; Support at 2600, 2530. 🎲 Today's Scenario Bullish scenario: Sideways consolidation above 80000 to digest overbought conditions, a low-volume pullback without breaking support is a buying opportunity, next week a volume breakout above 81500 targets 82000–83000; ETH holding above 2600 targets 2650, 2700. Bearish scenarCrash Breakdown
$xBE crashed today, down 4.29% in 24 hours, with a volatility amplitude reaching 8.49 percentage points, directly slamming the market.
Current price is $266.6400, with a trading volume of $1.35M, volume at least doubled compared to the same period, indicating significant capital movement.
The 24-hour high was $288.6500, the low was $265.0000, creating an 8.5-point range for trading operations.
Belonging to another sector, this round of crash is not an isolated coin event; at least 3 coins in the same track moved synchronously, showing clear sector linkage effects.
First layer of selling pressure: profit-taking concentrated on stopping gains and exiting; the second cut shows smart money reducing positions by at least 20 percentage points in advance; finally, retail investors panic selling, causing a stampede.
Observation point: check if large capital is absorbing during the decline; if trading volume continues to shrink below 30% of today's volume, then it is a real drop, not a shakeout.
Opinion: Do not chase abnormal moves; wait for absorption to finish and observe the structure; if the structure breaks, do not stubbornly hold on.
Data comes from OKX public spot market data, for informational purposes only, not investment advice.
That's all for now; entry and exit decisions are up to you. Small Capital Contract Strategy
📌 Contract Strategy — Laddered Position Reduction in Extreme Market Conditions
In extreme market conditions, survival is more important than profit. The four-level laddered position reduction method:
① Level 1: Daily drop ≥15% triggers warning
Immediately disable all new position openings, only allow position reduction and closing; switch the main account from normal mode to read-only mode.
② Level 2: Daily drop ≥25% triggers automatic halving
Cut all positions by half regardless of profit or loss, prioritize closing high-leverage and cross-exchange hedging legs, keep low-leverage base positions.
③ Level 3: Daily drop ≥35% triggers liquidation plan
Reduce mainstream coin positions to ≤5%, only keep stablecoins and safe-haven assets; prepare withdrawal channels, consolidate funds from exchanges to cold wallets.
④ Level 4: Daily drop ≥50% full exit
Clear all risk exposures, transfer stablecoins to self-custody or OTC accounts, keep only minimum withdrawal amounts on exchanges, wait 72 hours before reassessment.
⚠️ Key Disciplines:
1. Pre-placed orders must be set 24 hours before a crash; orders cannot be placed during extreme market conditions;
2. Once a ladder level is triggered, execution is unconditional—no discussion, no stop-loss refusal, no plan changes;
3. When reducing positions, prioritize closing losing positions over profitable ones; preserving principal is the top priority;
4. During exit, avoid checking charts, communities, or news; a 72-hour cooldown prevents emotional rebound chasing;
5. Re-entry must start with small positions in a single asset; only gradually increase position size after 3 consecutive days of profit.
Core: Extreme market conditions are not the time to show skills; discipline is the lifeline.Market sentiment is starting to improve; in various groups and on X, everyone is looking forward to a bull market.
This bull market has indeed come a bit too quickly. Whether in terms of the drop or the duration, compared to the previous two cycles, it’s much lighter. Even when Bitcoin dropped to 57,800, market sentiment was somewhat despairing, but there was absolutely no feeling of complete fear or panic.
I experienced the deep bear market at the end of 2022. Back then, people were doubting whether Bitcoin would die, whether the crypto space would cease to exist. The price had dropped to around 15,000. I have to admit, when I bought Bitcoin at 18,000, I was very anxious and fearful, even thinking about selling as soon as it rose a bit, believing it could fall further.
But this time, when I bought my first batch of Bitcoin at 63,000, I wasn’t anxious at all; I even hoped it would drop more so I could buy more. It might also be because last time I went all-in at 18,000, whereas this time I only bought a small portion at 63,000, so I have more cash on hand and feel less anxious.
But regardless, I still feel that if this bear market is truly over, the drop was too small. At most, it fell from 126,000 back to 57,800, which is just over a 50% drop. With such a drop, when it rallies later, the selling pressure will be huge; the train will be packed with people.
All we can do is wait and see. This bear market ended in a strange way, it can hardly be called a bear market, more like the 312 or 519 events, with about a 50% drop.Global macro has no clear direction, and the crypto market is also waiting for risk appetite to recover, so here for AKE we don't look at macro conditions, only at its own order book and naked K.
On the four-hour level, AKE's current price 0.0430470 is running close to the low position for recovery. The recent dip around 0.0417 saw passive absorption; the bears' sell-off did not continue with volume, indicating short-term selling pressure is temporarily exhausted.
Just parked the car at the community back door, my phone kept buzzing with order reminders, but I was too lazy to answer, focusing first on the five-minute chart. If the smaller timeframe pulls back to the 0.0420 to 0.0425 range without breaking it and closes back above 0.0430, it means funds are defending the low point, so you can enter to try for a rebound.
Set stop loss at 0.0406 because if it breaks below the previous low here, bears will continue to sweep downward. Take profit first looks at 0.0458, and if broken, then 0.0472.
If it directly rallies past 0.0449 but without active buying volume following, do not chase; wait for a pullback confirmation.
$AKE
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？
@OKX星球 ⚡Storage trio collective riot! Violent surge in a single day, but I advise everyone not to get carried away
⚠️Personal review record, not investment advice!
Today the storage sector went completely crazy🔥
Definitely the strongest AI computing power sub-sector, the three giants all surged across the board:
$SNDK SanDisk surged nearly 8% in a single day, rushing to a high of 1740
$MU Micron closed strong up 5.7%, firmly above the 979 level
$SKHY SK Hynix also surged over 6%, sector sentiment completely exploded!
I think many people are confused: why did storage suddenly take off again?
Core logic breakdown👇
1. Macro negative factors settled, rate hike shoe dropped, market sentiment directly released, capital flowing back to tech hardware track.
2. Industry fundamentals are super strong!
SK Hynix officially announced: from 2025-2027, it will return over 50% of free cash flow as dividends to shareholders, fundamentals fully sincere.
3. AI storage super cycle is far from over!
High-end HBM capacity remains tight, top orders are booked through next year, AI inference era’s strong demand for high-speed storage continues to explode, long-term supply-demand gap exists.
But! Here’s the key⚠️
The crazier the market, the calmer you must be!
Honestly, I really dare not chase at the current levels:
✅SanDisk has doubled from lows, current PE is 22x, completely out of the cheap range, visible premium.
✅Micron’s performance is solid and stable, but the single-day 5% big bullish candle overextends short-term momentum.
✅SK Hynix has the strongest HBM narrative and imagination space, but short-term consecutive rallies have piled up heavy profit-taking pressure.
My real view:
The mid-to-long-term storage AI logic is completely intact, the super cycle is still ongoing.
But short-term it’s an emotion-driven short squeeze and overbought market!
Don’t let one big bullish candle change your belief!
Those blindly chasing highs today will most likely be stuck holding tomorrow.
Optimal strategy: don’t chase the rally, wait for a pullback
Patiently wait for a 5%-10% drop to a low point, then accumulate in batches at lower prices, maximizing safety margin.
Storage sector’s usual trait: rises insanely, falls mercilessly.
Don’t be greedy in the frenzy, stability is king!
#黄仁勋：英伟达明年芯片销量将翻倍 #全球高利率预期再升温 #海力士回应美国扩产传闻 Watching the market obsessively gets annoying; turning it off actually makes things clearer, and when your eyes aren't glued to it, your mind stays calm. During the market bottoming process, MMT retraced and held steady; with repeated fluctuations during the session, I advised not to mess with $MMT long positions as buying pressure was strengthening.
Bought at 0.1310 and sold at 0.1588, a floating profit of +424.42%, nailed it. The earlier part was really dragging, but the outcome is truly satisfying; this profit feels good.
Risk control done upfront is called being rational; cutting losses later is called decisive action.
Being out of the market isn't a sin; recklessly opening positions is the real mistake.
Take profit on 70%, keep the remaining 30% at cost price as protection; don't let profits turn uncomfortable on a pullback—take profits when you should. For those who haven't entered yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round; there will be more opportunities ahead.
$SOL $SNDK $UNI is too hot right now, it's all profit-taking, not recommended to chase.
1. Main reason for the rally: Wall Street closed the door on legislation, the SEC opened a window, and this window just happens to be right at Uniswap's doorstep.
They granted an innovative exemption for tokenized stocks (5-year term), allowing tokenized US stocks to be traded via AMM. This perfectly aligns with Uniswap's v4 launch in July, like a windfall from the sky. Legal trading of tokenized stocks, Uniswap is the ready runway.
2. Data confirms: Official disclosure shows about 80% of Robinhood Stock Tokens' trading volume goes through Uniswap, with cumulative stock token trading exceeding $10 billion.
3. But leverage is overheated, not recommended to chase: OI +16% to 11.21 million UNI ($570 million), contract volume +64%, RSI 84 deeply overbought—price is rising, and there's real squeezing.
This round is a revaluation driven by regulatory expectations, a pullback to 7.8 is a good entry, the 29th is the next checkpoint when Robinhood subsidies expire, then the authenticity of volume will be revealed.Data as of 2026-09-19 morning session 1. Price and short-term trend $BTC
Current price is about $81,150–81,250, 24h about +6.0%~+6.2%, jumping from around 76,400; 24h range is about $76,300–81,700. Trading volume is about $39–41 billion, significantly larger than midweek. Short-term: bullish but overheated. Mainly due to bearish stamping (short liquidations far exceed bulls), a breakout on volume rather than slow bull accumulation. Liquidity is thin at the weekend, and the chance of chasing on highs has declined. Support: 80,000–80,500 (psychological + breakout pullback), 78,000–78,200, 75,000–76,200 (weekly low). Resistance: 81,600–82,300, 84,000–84,400. Indicators: Price above EMA20/50/200; Daily RSI at around mid-high, short-term RSI overbought (some sources near 80); MACD golden cross, histogram amplification. Structure is bullish, but short-term congested $ETH
Current price is around $2,610–$2,620, 24h about +6.5%~+7.2%, range around $2,435–2,645; trading volume is about $22–24 billion, nearly doubling. Short-term: Bullish on the rally, more crowded than BTC. Has touched the previous resistance near 2,623. Support: 2,590–2.6Those chasing the highs are counting money, while the shorts are losing money: ONE surged 30% in one day
BTC leads at 81122.7, $ONE surged 33.7% in one day, current price 0.00226, volume ratio 10.5. I won't chase at this level, will buy on dips—0.0019 must hold.
First, the structure is intact. MA7 crossed above MA30 on day 1, MACD formed a golden cross above zero, closing above the upper Bollinger Band.
Second, shorts haven't entered. Funding rate is -0.006762 negative, shorts are paying funding fees; long-short ratio is 1.03.
Caution—RSI at 89.8 is overbought, Fear & Greed index 71, 30-day range position 0.927. On 9-17 it hit 0.00239 then retraced to 0.000927 the same day.
Resistance above: 0.002349 (today's high) → 0.00239 (9-17 high)
Support below: 0.001902 (today's low) → 0.001431 (24h low)
Watershed level: 0.0019. Hold above to continue rising, break below to target 0.00143.
Conclusion: More likely to see wide-range consolidation at high levels rather than a direct continuation—buy on dips if 0.0019 holds.
Strategy—buy on dip at 0.0019, stop loss if breaks 0.001431, target 0.00235.
I'm watching this coin closely, don't lose track.
$ONE $BTCLooking back at the 2017 cycle from the bear-market lows to the eventual peak, the biggest lesson was simple: Altcoins could massively outperform BTC when a strong narrative and liquidity came together. Approximate peak-cycle multiples: $XRP → ~360x $ETH → ~90x $LTC → ~75x $BTC → ~13x $DASH → ~9x The important part wasn’t just the numbers. 2017 was driven by narratives like smart contracts, ICOs, and cross-border payments. ETH and XRP attracted enormous attention, while BTC remained the core marBrothers, can't you really feel the sense of crisis? Why do you keep shorting $ZEC one after another? Almost every day in the dynamic group, someone is wailing, saying ZEC has surged again, it has risen again, but many still stubbornly short it. Shorting now is all feeding the market; absolutely do not short. Wait for a pullback to go long accordingly. This move for ZEC is heading straight for 2000.
ZEC current price is 1553, up 4.79% in 24 hours, having surged from 800 all the way up, more than doubling. The long-short ratio is 68% to 32%, bulls are still crushing bears, shorts have been liquidated wave after wave. The funding rate is still positive at 0.005%, shorts are paying fees to hold positions, but the price stubbornly keeps climbing.
My short position entry price is 974, current price 1553, loss of 178%, liquidation price 2093. Holding from 800 until now, I have completely understood—the core of this rally is institutional funds from Grayscale Zcash spot ETF plus short squeeze, forming a self-reinforcing vicious cycle. The more shorts add positions, the more it rises; the more it rises, the more shorts get liquidated; it simply won't stop.
From a technical perspective, resistance above 1553 is at 1600; breaking that leads to 1700, next target is 2000. As long as shorts don't die out, the uptrend won't stop. ETF funds are still flowing in, institutions are still buying, this rally is far from over.
I will hold my short position for now, cut losses around 1200 on the pullback, then go long accordingly. #美联储10月再加息概率破55%
$BTC $ETH $BTC surged directly to 81748, $ETH touched 2646, and watching the OKX order book made my heart skip a beat. The teachers in the group have already started shouting "150,000" and "200,000," and my ears are getting calloused from hearing it.
Honestly, I admit the rise is strong, but shouting 150,000 every time it goes up is a tactic I'm too familiar with. Looking at the chart first, BTC pulled from 76647 all the way to 81748, currently at 81270, basically hugging the daily high, which shows the buying is solid, not a fakeout. ETH also pulled from 2452 to 2646, currently at 2612, so the second coin finally showed some strength. This move is clearly a short squeeze plus a breakout; the shorts have been mostly liquidated, and funds are pushing upward accordingly.
But 150,000? That's a long-term target, not this week's KPI. To rise over 80% from the current price, it would require sustained volume expansion, massive macro liquidity injections, and a continuous influx of new funds—missing any one of these makes it difficult. Although volume is better than a few days ago, it's still far from a "bull frenzy." I glanced at OKX contract data; funding rates are already high, longs are a bit crowded, and chasing higher now risks getting stuck at the top.
I'll mark the key levels:
BTC: Support at 80000-80500, as long as it doesn't break on a pullback, it's still strong; resistance at 82500, which is the bull-bear dividing line—only if volume breaks and holds above this can we talk about 85000 or 90000. 150,000 is a matter for the next cycle.
$ETH: Support at 2550-2600, resistance at 2700-2800; failure to hold 2700 means just a rebound.最脆弱的一环，其实不是BTC，是那些涨了两天就急着跑的人 🌙 你有没有发现，这次坏消息出完之后，市场反而没继续跌？ 先看事实。美联储加了25个基点，10年期美债收益率破5%，CLARITY法案被卡，BTC一度被压到接近75000。按过去的剧本，这种组合拳应该继续往下砸。但三天内它把80000拿回来了，9月17日美国现货BTC ETF重新净流入1.595亿美元，其中IBIT单日进了1.837亿。坏消息全部落地之后价格不跌，这本身就是信号。 更值得看的是跨市场的强弱差。今天BTC涨约5%，SOL涨10%，HYPE涨12%，UNI、NEAR、ARB盘中甚至出现单日20%以上的拉升，整个加密总市值回到接近2.7万亿。这不是简单的普涨，而是风险偏好在往曲线更外端走。BTC稳住80000这个动作，等于给后面的高beta资产腾出了表现空间。 我自己的理解是，市场现在交易的不是"加不加息"，而是"坏消息有没有被提前计价"。当10年期收益率破5%和法案受阻同时出现，BTC只回撤到75000附近就止住，说明这部分预期已经被消化得差不多了。真正没被充分定价的，反而是资金从BTC向DeFi、L2、隐私、AIThe next day? Still no orders. No positions. Just waiting. 👀 I’m watching $BTC $ETH $ZEC closely, but there’s no need to force a trade when the setup isn’t clear. The macro backdrop remains tense, with markets pricing around a 55% chance of another Fed hike in October. I’m leaning toward looking for short setups, but confirmation comes first. Sometimes the best position is no position. Slow down. Wait for the setup. Protect your capital. 📊 #BTC #ETH #ZEC #Crypto #Fed$CORE Focus In-depth Analysis of CORE: BTCFi's Real Boom vs. Token's Real Dilemma, Understanding Why It Never Breaks Out of the Trend The strongest theme in this bull market is undoubtedly BTCFi. The entire market is hyping up the super-logic of "dormant Bitcoin activation, institutional staking entering the market, Bitcoin ecosystem exploding." But strangely: the BTCFi sector continues to rotate and strengthen, with STX and MERL hitting new highs in succession, but CORE remains weak and weak for a long time. The community always has only two extremes: Extreme bulls: BTCFi king, blindly going all-in on ten-thousandfold logic in the future. Extreme bears: chip collapse, unsolvable inflation, ultimately resuming to zero. The real truth is not in the get-rich-quick narrative nor in the fear of losing money. Today, putting aside sentiment and FOMO, let's explain with pure fundamentals: Why is the sector a real trend, but CORE tokens can never break the trend and become a major bull? 1. Let's start with the truth: BTCFi's track logic is 100% valid, no problem at all. BTCFi is not a fake narrative; it's the hardcore incremental logic of this bull market: 1. Over ten million BTC have long dormant cold wallets across the entire network, with zero returns; 2. Traditional institutions and custody platforms urgently need compliant BTC staking channels; 3. After Bitcoin's halving, ecosystem expansion, on-chain integration, and financialization are inevitable. Therefore, STX, MERL, and Babylon can continue to strengthen, with real sector dividends and continuous capital inflows. CORE is benefiting from this round of ecosystem dividends, and the narrative is completely sound. The problem lies in: generationMy thighs are numb from all the clapping!
Yesterday afternoon, the $BTC Dual Currency Win just came out. If I had held on a bit longer, I could have sold at a good price in the evening. But I got impatient and bought back in at 8:30, and by 9 it started to rise~ fate is unpredictable.
Alright, let's look back and talk about what happened these past two days.
Two major events hit at the same time: one scary in the short term, the other providing long-term support.
First, the October rate hike. The probability has already broken 55%. In principle, this is short-term bearish, and funds will be suppressed. But note, this is just an expectation and hasn't officially happened yet. The market has priced in part of it in advance, so when it actually happens, the bearish impact might be fully absorbed. Therefore, the current market won't crash directly because of this; it will more likely fluctuate back and forth.
Next, look at the US crypto tax and Bitcoin reserve bills. These are the real long-term variables worth watching.
Both bills have only passed committee so far; there are still congressional procedures ahead. But the signal is clear: after CLARITY was blocked, the US did not pause crypto legislation but shifted toward more detailed tax and reserve systems. The policy logic is moving from "allowing transactions" to "state ownership + clear taxation."
With rate hike expectations weighing down on one side and the bills providing long-term support on the other, it's hard for the short term to see a one-sided big rise or fall; most likely, the market will continue to oscillate and consolidate.
Previously, after the rate hike was implemented, the market didn't crash; ETH even bounced back near 2630, indicating the market is less fearful of bearish news than before.
In the short term, don't chase rallies or panic sell, and don't heavily bet on direction. Hold your spot positions; the long-term logic is moving in a positive direction.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 This time Sandisk's short position is getting hit 🥲 Opened short at 1643.9, screenshot shows 1780.8, the page displays this contract's floating profit and loss rate at -624.58%, and the take profit at 1550 is still hanging. Previously, I was long and disliked that it didn't rise; now shorting, I encounter a rebound, switching directions back and forth but still missing the rhythm.
From a short seller's perspective, I'm more concerned about new developments on the supply side. On September 18, Reuters reported that Changxin is preparing to set up NAND flash memory R&D production lines, and Solidigm under Hynix is also considering building a factory in the US. However, the former's production start time is still unclear, and the latter has not made a final decision.
My view is that the more profitable storage price increases are, the more likely others will be attracted to share this business. So I suspect the market might be overestimating how long high profits can last. This is a bearish reason but does not prove that 1643.9 is the right short entry point.
The problem is exactly here: what worries me is that competition will intensify later, but I hold a 75x contract. New capacity hasn't come online yet, prices might still rise for a while, and this position might not be able to wait. What this trade might lack is not a bearish story, but evidence that would make buyers stop now. You can't directly translate "it might not be so profitable later" into "it should fall now."
What is more realistic now is that, based on the static calculation from the screenshot, the estimated strong liquidation price at 1879.8 is only about 5.6% higher. No matter how firmly 1550 is set, it won't shield me from this risk. The priority now should be to reduce the position or exit, rather than adding more shorts and increasing the hope of breaking even.Felt so sleepy last night at 10:30 that I shut down; woke up to see my account glowing red with a real profit of 47%. Turns out not watching the market and just holding on worked—sleep trading strategy really has something to it.
$BTC has already touched around 81,400, while the day before yesterday it was still hovering below 75,000. Those who got in at 7.5 should be waking up smiling; if you haven't entered yet, don't rush to chase—wait for a pullback confirmation for more stability.
$XRP is still cheap. Last time BTC was at 80,000, it was only 1.5; based on this anchor, there's about 7% more room for imagination. But catching up is not a debt owed—don't treat the reference as a promise.
$GOOGL keep adding longs; after Gemini's release, sentiment ignited directly, pushing it all the way to 400. Tech stocks and crypto have different rhythms, so it's best to calculate positions separately—don't mix them and get carried away.
Making money while sleeping is possible, provided your position doesn't blow up. Trade rationally; don't let unrealized gains turn into illusions.
#摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is more short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.619, top positions long-short ratio is 0.773; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.174; price increased by 0.82%, position value changed by +0.45%. The overall market account structure is long-biased, which differs from the top positions bias.
$ZEC top accounts are more short-biased, but position distribution is more long-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.417, top positions long-short ratio is 1.251; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 0.314; price decreased by 0.44%, position value changed by -0.19%.
$AKE top accounts and top positions are both long-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.023, top positions long-short ratio is 1.577; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 0.431; price decreased by 2.72%, position value changed by -4.13%. The account number structure and position distribution of the top group are aligned.
DOGE, ZEC: The side dominating in account numbers is opposite to the side dominating in positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
ZEC, AKE: The overall market account structure is short-biased, which also differs from the top positions bias. Long $BTC Long $ETH Long $APE Long $BAYC At first glance, this looks like exposure across different parts of crypto — majors, altcoins, and NFTs. But when market sentiment turns risk-off, these assets can start moving together. Owning more tickers doesn’t automatically mean your portfolio is diversified. The key question is simple: Are your positions actually exposed to different risks, or are they all depending on the same crypto liquidity and sentiment? When volatility expands, correlation can9.15 Trading Day Summary
Today's major bearish pattern remains unchanged, with the market undergoing a low-level oscillation recovery after a decline.
Morning advice was not to bottom-fish; short positions were taken at rebound resistance levels, with the expected pullback after a high surge;
At noon, it was reiterated that the rebound is only a recovery, not a reversal; short positions were arranged in the 4320-4350 range, with price encountering resistance at 4317 and then declining;
In the evening, the high-short strategy continued, with price breaking below 4300, hitting a low of 4260, reaching the target range.
In a weak market, avoid blind bottom-fishing; only take opportunities you understand and decisively take profits at targets.
Volatile oscillations require light positions, strict stop-losses, and prioritizing risk control.1. Dow Theory The mid-term downtrend officially ends, and the trend reversal is confirmed: The massive long bullish candle on September 18 shattered all bearish structures since September 15—the LH sequence was violently broken (all previous highs at 77,077 and 79,568 recovered), and the price continuously created "higher highs" (HH): 78,404 → 81,386 → 81,649. Dow Theory's criteria for trend reversal (secondary rebound breaking through the reaction high and no longer moving downward) are fully met: 76,217, 77,917, 80,554, 80,928 form a complete HL upward chain, with the mid-term trend shifting from a decline to an upward trend. Structure analysis: The only pending current peak is 82,272—the third wave top since the rise on August 14, and the "previous high confirmation line" for the entire major structure. Dow Theory requires a new trend to break through previous highs to be fully confirmed: above 82,272, it opens up space for a historic high at 82,814 (May 6 ATH); If 82,272 is blocked and pulls back, it may evolve into a larger double top. Dow conclusion: The medium-term trend has turned bullish, and in the short term, it is at the last level before trend confirmation. 80,900-81,000 (the breakout platform on September 18) is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, maintaining an aggressive stance above it; 82,272 is the touchstone; a breakout would confirm a full bull market. 2. Chan Theory Classification Structure (15 minutes).$BTC's big surge broke through 81,000, but smart money is quietly fleeing. The more you look at this rally, the more it feels like a carefully orchestrated "Hongmen Banquet."
Looking at the technicals, BTC's RSI has soared to 88.4, KDJ's J value hit 92.4, and Ethereum's RSI reached 84.9. This isn't just overbought; it's an overbought fighter jet! Although the price broke above the upper Bollinger Band, the MACD hasn't followed, a classic "driver pressing the gas pedal but the engine not responding," meaning a violent pullback could happen anytime.
What's even more unsettling is the capital flow. Prices are rising, but funds are running away! BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 296 million in a single day, and Ethereum has been bleeding for three consecutive days. This "volume-price divergence" rally is propped up solely by retail sentiment and short covering, making the foundation extremely unstable. Once sentiment cools off, it will be obvious who is left exposed.
The macro environment remains gloomy. Don't be fooled by Deutsche Bank's compliance custody being a positive; the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has surged to 53%, US Treasury yields remain high, and liquidity tightening is still hanging like a sword overhead. There's a clear large sell wall near 80,000, making any rally very weak.
To be honest, the short-term risk now outweighs the opportunity. Don't get caught up in the rally and chase longs impulsively, and definitely don't be the last bag holder! Wait for this overheated sentiment to digest and the pullback to stabilize before looking for opportunities.Haha, remember, that ETH wave where I bought at 2415 and took profit at 2600, plus the previous few trades accumulating over 300U profit, was really satisfying.
But that money was made smoothly because the entry points were well-timed — all bought at support levels when others were panicking, not chasing after bullish candles. Now at 81000, just 2000 points below the previous high, the bulls are pumped; rushing in now is completely different from picking up money back then.
The 500U in the contract account is still there, and discipline remains. The market will have more moves; wait for it to drop again to stabilize around 78000-79000, or hold above 83000 and confirm a pullback, then I'll join you for another confident trade. No rush orders, keep the opportunities, only then can the money stay.The market is rising, yet some say Dogecoin is trash: it falls harder than others and can't keep up when it rises. This sounds satisfying, but it's the wrong question—what are you treating it as?
If you want to treat it like a lottery ticket, then don't pick Dogecoin. Lotteries require endless odds, which Dogecoin can't provide. It drops deeply when it falls and rebounds slowly, with the same themes repeating over and over. It has all the traits you can't accept. Most who enter with a short-term trading mindset can't survive the first round of corrections, curse it as trash, and turn to find the next lottery ticket.
But from another perspective, these "flaws" are exactly the filters for long-term holders. Dogecoin has lived for over a decade, sending off wave after wave of short-term traders, yet the community remains, payment scenarios remain, and Elon Musk's influence remains. Its value isn't in the slope of the candlestick chart but in the answers time provides. Those who can hold on aren't looking at how many points it will rise next week but whether this coin can still be used and remembered.
So the question isn't whether $DOGE is good or not, but how long you plan to stay with it. If you want to win the lottery, it's not that ticket; if you want to accompany a coin on a long journey, it’s worth a closer look.Yesterday I was still worried about the CLARITY Act not passing and the Fed raising interest rates, but today BTC directly climbed back above 80,000, with SOL and HYPE even more exaggerated, their gains clearly outpacing BTC. This market situation is really a bit hard to understand. What's more interesting is that although the bill is stuck, the SEC and CFTC are actually continuing to push forward rules related to crypto and tokenization. So now I want to ask: is the market's real trading no longer about "whether the US will pass a comprehensive crypto bill," but rather about how US regulators will step by step integrate crypto assets into the traditional financial system? If this logic holds, then BTC is responsible for the overall market, ETH for on-chain finance, and high-volatility assets like SOL and HYPE for capital speculation. Could these become the clearest market trends going forward? Of course, the rapid rise now also makes me a bit anxious—after all, pulling up so much in one day means chasing in and waiting for a pullback are completely different strategies. What do you think—is this wave a real breakout or just another pump-and-dump? $BTC $ETH $SOL A signal that could change the underlying logic of BTC investment: well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo publicly stated that BTC's four-year halving cycle may be ending, replaced by traditional finance's 6-8 year debt cycle. First, the supply shock from the halving is now negligible. After the 2024 halving, BTC's annual inflation rate will drop to about 0.8%, and another halving in 2028 will drop to 0.4%—lower than the 1.7% annual supply growth rate for gold miners. The halving as the "engine" of supply shock is too small to independently drive price cycles. Second, institutional funds have completely changed the market structure. ETF holdings account for 6.3% of BTC's circulating supply, while institutions collectively hold 13.2%-13.7%, with long-term holders controlling 84% of supply. During the 2022 rate hike cycle, BTC fell over 70%, with ETF size at zero; Less than 48 hours after the 2026 rate hike, it will regain lost ground—the structure has changed, and so has the volatility characteristics. Third, the MVRV Z-Score dropped to around 0.27 in July (near the historical bottom), but this round of maximum drawdown is about 52%, far below 84% in 2018 and 77% in 2022—volatility is being "smoothed out" by institutional funds. → What does this mean? The traditional financial debt cycle—Fed rate cuts→ credit expansion→ asset price increases→ rising inflation→ rate hikes→ recessions→ rate cuts again—a complete cycle of about six years. BTC is following the same rhythm curve as US stocks, rather than its own four-year drumbeat Fidelity You don’t need to catch every pump. You need to stay alive long enough to catch the RIGHT one. $ZEC has already exploded. Chasing after a vertical move can turn a good thesis into a bad entry. Meanwhile, I’m watching $BCH closely. If support holds and momentum expands: $300 becomes the first major psychological zone. Above that, $600+ becomes a longer-term scenario worth monitoring. But first: BTC needs to hold strength. BCH needs confirmation. Volume needs to follow price. The Fed just raised rFrom August to September, the BTC market carried out a systematic "strangling" of short positions. First, on August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term bond buybacks, causing BTC to surge over 10% in a single day. Within 24 hours, 180,000 people were liquidated, and 3.26 billion yuan was liquidated, with short liquidations accounting for 3 billion yuan, accounting for over 90%. Second, in late August, BTC broke through 80,000, triggering another 600 million yuan + two-way liquidation, with 90,000 people being wiped out. Third, in early September, ETFs saw 730 million yuan in inflows in a single day, with prices surging back to 80,000. Over the entire cycle, total short liquidations from August to September exceeded $4 billion—this is not a market rally, but a structural short squeeze. → Now let's look at the on-chain "hunting map." Glassnode points out that the 83,000-86,000 range holds weeks of accumulated short positions; once BTC is touched, forced liquidations will reverse buying and push prices higher. 80,000-85,000 is also a cost-intensive zone for institutions: institutional BTC treasury companies average 80,421 to buy, ETF holders average 85,000 — meaning some institutions choose to "break even and sell" at this range. → Support below is also clear. 77,100-80,200 is the long-term holder supply wall marked by CryptoQuant, with this group selling 539,000 BTC in 30 days. 71,300 is the short-term holder average cost line, and 62,000-$65,000 is the strong on-chain support zone. → Technical aspects emerge$BCH could become one of the most interesting rotation plays if BTC continues holding strength. I’m not saying chase it. I’m saying WATCH IT. BTC = monetary narrative. BCH = higher-beta exposure to the same broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Key area: → $300 Extended scenario: → $600+ But only if price, volume and structure confirm. And $ZEC? After such a violent move, chasing the top is exactly where discipline matters most. The Fed just delivered a 25 bps hike. BTC responded by reclaiming $80K. Now th加息+法案双杀，所有人都在等崩盘。结果呢？不到48小时，BTC从74,965暴力拉回81,000，24小时涨超6%，全网11万人爆仓，空头被清洗超$2.6亿。 第一，利空量级并不小。美联储三年来首次加息25基点至3.75%-4.00%，CLARITY法案参议院49:50折戟，两条消息同时砸下来，9月15日单日12万人被爆、6.7亿被清算。第二，但消化速度快到离谱。ETF端两日流出约7.46亿后立刻恢复净流入，周四单日BTC ETF流入7.3亿，创2026年第三大单日纪录，贝莱德IBIT一只就贡献了4.54亿。第三，期货未平仓合约飙至$570亿以上（5月以来最高），多头杠杆同步加码——这已经不是2022年那个"加息就崩"的市场了。 → 催化剂在油价。布伦特连跌三天跌破$100/桶，特朗普称"对伊战事将很快结束"。油价下行→通胀预期降温→加息空间收窄，风险资产集体松绑。Strategy股价单日涨超16%，Coinbase涨超11%，矿企MARA涨近14%。 → 但Glassnode刚刚发出警告：BTC正逐步逼近83,000-86,000的空头清算密集区，若触及该区间，空头被迫回补可能引发快To be honest, the moment I pressed the close position button, my hands were shaking, my scalp tingling, and I even felt like crying.
What was the first pinned post on my homepage? It was about SNDK. Back then, I was shorting at 30x leverage, and the pump by the manipulative whales wiped me out, leaving me owing the market 115%, completely wiped out. For more than half a month, this coin was a thorn in my heart.
Today, with the same coin, going long at 50x leverage, I recovered all my losses with interest.
Why was I able to hold this position? To be honest, it wasn’t because of skill, but because of stubbornness and sheer will.
I was shaken out between 1500-1600 for half a month, the bottom kept rising, and when it broke 1700 with volume yesterday, I gritted my teeth and went long. 50x leverage, brothers, even a slight wick could have wiped me out to zero.
So why did I exit at 1745?
Because I was scared.
Really scared. I’ve suffered losses from not exiting in time and from owing money. Above 1745 was all trapped positions, funding rates were high, profits were enough, and I didn’t want to gamble anymore. Securing profits is the only truth to survive in this market.
From earning 85% on a ZEC long, 222% on a short, to today’s 337% on SNDK, I’ve been like a madman these past two weeks, watching the market every day, losing sleep every night. Finally, I earned back this tuition fee.
A heartfelt word to brothers still holding positions:
Don’t follow me in opening 50x leverage. Heavy positions feel good for a moment, but liquidation is a funeral. Staying alive is more important than anything. Nobody is talking about this. If $BTC is digital gold, $BCH is the higher-beta version of that scarcity narrative — and the market may be underestimating what happens if momentum rotates into BCH. I’m watching: $BCH → $300 Then potentially $600+ if the broader trend stays constructive. But I’m NOT chasing green candles. 15M + 1H support = areas I want to see buyers defend. $ZEC has already made a massive move. Chasing vertical candles now means taking a completely different risk profile. MeanwhiDavid Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, liquidated his six-year holding of ETH on May 21.
Then he bought five tokens: ZEC, HYPE, LIT, NEAR, VVV.
Three months later, the report card came out: ZEC rose 110%, LIT rose 369%, NEAR rose 54%, HYPE rose 55%, VVV fell 6%. In the same period, ETH only rose 8%.
The overall portfolio return was about 90%-120%, outperforming ETH by more than 70 percentage points.
But today I don't want to talk to you about "whether to copy his homework."
What I want to analyze is—why he bought these five instead of ETH.
First, look at how he split his money into two parts:
50% equally weighted bought VVV, NEAR, ZEC, HYPE. The remaining 50% was dollar-cost averaged into LIT.
These five assets cover four narrative tracks:
Privacy → ZEC
On-chain derivatives → HYPE, LIT
Cross-chain infrastructure → NEAR
Decentralized AI inference → VVV
None of these relate to the L1 valuation narrative.
It's not that "ETH is no longer viable," but he judged that the L1 narrative valuation logic has already completed its cycle.
The common feature of these five tokens is one thing: they can prove themselves.
ZEC's catalyst is the ETF. Grayscale Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) will list on NYSE Arca on August 25, accumulating nearly $700 million in assets in less than two weeks, with net inflows exceeding $179 million. ZEC has risen over 160% this year, while Bitcoin fell 13% in the same period. Money in the privacy track is real, not just hype.
HYPE and LIT's catalysts are protocol revenue and buyback mechanisms. Hyperliquid uses about 99% of fees to buy back and burn HYPE, with annualized revenue of $748 million and a cumulative burn of 48.17 million HYPE. Lighter's buyback speed is about twice that of HYPE, having programmatically bought back about 15.5 million LIT since TGE, accounting for about 6.3% of circulating supply. Every transaction turns into buying pressure.
VVV's catalyst is token burn linked to AI revenue. Starting July, $5 of every $100 API points purchase automatically buys back and burns VVV, reducing annual issuance from 14 million to 2 million tokens. As AI usage rises, buybacks increase.
NEAR's catalyst is privacy perpetual contracts. By integrating Hyperliquid to promote confidential derivatives, Hoffman even labeled it a "generalized version of ZEC."
Each asset can clearly explain: where the money comes from, when it comes, and how much.
So what about ETH?
Hoffman himself explained very clearly during the liquidation:
The "ETH as money" narrative hasn't failed, but it has reached its potential ceiling.
In plain terms: ETH's story is over, and the market has priced it accordingly.
Future network growth may be captured more by Layer 2 and application layers, while ETH's own price structure has limited room for revaluation.
It's not that ETH's technology is lacking. Its valuation logic has simply run its course.
The "ETH as money" narrative was worth $3,000 in 2021 and still worth $2,500 in 2026. The narrative hasn't changed, nor has the price. The market has clearly priced it.
So what exactly is Hoffman's framework?
In one sentence: In the current liquidity-scarce environment, buy assets that "can prove themselves."
Not buying "because I think it will rise," but buying "because its revenue is growing, buybacks are running, and capital is flowing in."
Not buying "narratives yet to be realized," but buying "narratives being verified by on-chain data."
ZEC has ETF capital inflows, not just privacy ideals on a whitepaper.
HYPE has daily buyback cash flow, not just a decentralized vision painted on a whiteboard.
LIT has verifiable zk circuits, not just a "trust the team" slogan.
On September 18, Hoffman declared, "Alt season is arriving earlier than expected."
That day, ZEC was priced at $1,512, up about 170% from his entry price of around $560. NEAR surged 30% in one day to $3.54, and HYPE hit an all-time high of $89.92.
Whether alt season has arrived or not, you decide.
But he had already positioned himself back in May.
$LIT $NEAR $ZEC Hoffman shouts "Altcoin season is here," but 5 data points tell you the truth
1/5 Hoffman's holdings really exploded.
He cleared out ETH on May 21 and switched to LIT, ZEC, NEAR, HYPE, VVV in early June.
Three months later report card: LIT rose 135%-210%, ZEC rose over 120%, NEAR rose 69%, HYPE rose 55%. In the same period, ETH only rose 17%.
The overall portfolio return is about 90%-120%, outperforming ETH by more than 70 percentage points.
He’s not just talk. He really made money.
2/5 But the market data doesn’t cooperate.
BlockchainCenter’s altcoin season index reads 37 in September. The threshold is 75. This means less than half of the top 50 tokens by market cap outperformed BTC in the past 90 days.
BTC dominance is 66.6%, not 58.4% as user profiles say — the reality is even more extreme. The top seven crypto assets account for 92.1% of the total market cap of the top 100, concentration back to 2021 levels.
Funds rotate within top assets, altcoins don’t get a turn at all. 30-day ETF net inflow is $5.64 billion, Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana alone took $5.57 billion. All other tokens combined get less than $100 million.
This is not altcoin season. This is internal circulation among top assets.
3/5 ZEC’s rise has real substance.
Paradigm co-founder publicly admits holding ZEC. Grayscale’s ZEC spot ETF raised over $460 million in two weeks. Community vote passed with 99.9% approval to cut block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds.
ETF funds keep buying, technology is substantially upgrading.
This is not pure sentiment; there are catalysts supporting the rally.
But note one detail: the pace of positive news realization. The NU7 vote passing is positive, Paradigm’s disclosure of holdings is positive. After the positives are out, when retail FOMO rushes in, those who built positions at low levels have profits thick enough to crush elephants. ZEC rose 2590% in the past year.
The trend is intact. But chasing highs and taking over positions sometimes is just one candlestick away.
4/5 NEAR’s narrative has cracks.
Hoffman calls NEAR the "generalized version of ZEC," sounds nice. What about the data?
NEAR Intents indeed helps ZEC with cross-chain settlement, ZEC-related trading pairs account for nearly 40% of platform volume. But actual money flowing into the protocol treasury for NEAR buybacks in 30 days is only about $910,000.
Most fees are taken by channels like SwapKit; only a tiny fraction reaches the NEAR buyback pool.
NEAR is now the "shadow of ZEC," not an independent cross-chain infrastructure. When ZEC rises, it benefits. When ZEC pulls back, its trading volume and buyback volume shrink simultaneously.
To become true infrastructure from a shadow, ZEC’s share needs to drop below 15% while total volume still grows. That step is still far away.
5/5 Conclusion.
The "altcoin season" Hoffman talks about is his personal portfolio’s altcoin season, not the market’s altcoin season.
His framework is worth learning: cash flow > narrative. Buying ZEC is because the ETF is buying with real money, buying HYPE and LIT is because protocol revenue is buying back with real money. Five targets, four narrative tracks, none related to L1 valuation.
But be cautious about his calls. Clearing ETH, taking over Bankless, shouting altcoin season, rebranding NEAR — media power and holding direction coincide at the same time. What he says may be right, but you need to distinguish what is judgment and what is position.
Don’t believe it just because he shouts.
$ZEC $NEAR $ETH If $BTC is digital gold, then $BCH is the high-beta expression of that same scarcity narrative. But don’t confuse conviction with blind buying. The current structure still favors buying weakness rather than chasing strength. Watch the 15M and 1H support zones for confirmation, and scale out into resistance instead of becoming exit liquidity. 🎯 $BCH levels I’m watching: → $300 as the near-term psychological target → $600+ as a longer-term scenario if momentum and adoption continue BCH has also g