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A 25bp rate hike has been implemented, and the dot plot still shows signs of another increase this year, clearly indicating the bill failed to pass. With these two factors combined, any short-term positive news that could be expected has basically been wiped out.
But ETH did not crash. The support range between 2330 and 2370 is still holding, indicating that leveraged bulls who should have been driven have already been cleared out before the rate hike, releasing selling pressure on the contract side ahead of schedule.
More bluntly on-chain: ETH reserves on exchanges continue to flow out, with tokens moving to staking addresses and cold wallets. On the spot side, there is no large-scale sell-off; these people are not stuck and not moving; they simply have no intention of moving at this level.
Long-term holders probably have this mindset: prices are set by macro perspectives, and chips are kept by themselves. Resistance is between 2440 and 2460; only when it rises can we talk about recovery.
What will truly determine the next pricing will be the CPI and non-farm payrolls coming later. How much longer do you think this round of volatility will last?
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走? Will #长端美债5% become the new normal? $ETH A trader who turned 200 into 2,335, then watched 680 collapse to 7.27, has restarted with a public rulebook. The headline number is the leverage breach, but the more useful signal sits in the position-sizing architecture: only 20% of capital deployed as margin, the remaining 80% parked to push the liquidation line further away, 2x leverage, and shorts reserved exclusively for altcoins printing a 40%+ single-day gain. That is not a directional bet on any one token. It is a bet on mean reversion i$BTC and gold 90-day correlation rises to +0.50! Is Bitcoin transforming from a "risk asset" to "digital gold"?
Latest data shows BTC and gold 90-day correlation has risen to +0.50, reaching the highest level in nearly two years. This means Bitcoin is shifting from a "high-risk growth asset" toward a "safe-haven asset," and the "digital gold" narrative is being repriced by the market.
BTC current price 76456, what does the increased positive correlation with gold indicate? Over the past year, BTC was highly tied to the US Nasdaq stock market, falling with Fed rate hikes and rising with cuts. But now, with tensions in the Middle East, US Treasury yields breaking 5%, and rising global geopolitical risks, gold is rising and BTC is also starting to rise. During risk-off periods, capital no longer only buys gold but also allocates to BTC. This reflects institutional funds reallocating—treating BTC as an alternative reserve asset rather than just a speculative instrument. The 76000 support is confirmed; if the safe-haven logic continues, BTC's decoupling from US stocks will reduce volatility and stabilize the trend.
$ETH's correlation with gold is also rising but to a lesser extent than BTC. ETH current price 2442, it still mostly follows BTC, and the "digital gold" narrative is not obvious for ETH. ETH is driven more by its own fundamentals (ETF inflows + staking lock-up + technical upgrades), with 2400 as solid support and 2500 as resistance. #美联储10月再加息概率破55% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 Do on-chain perpetuals really have to expose positions for everyone to see? NEAR first made default confidentiality a product.
OKX is currently priced around $3.50, up about 30% from approximately $2.68 at the 24-hour open, with an intraday high of about $3.54. The catalyst is near.com’s perpetual default confidentiality: position direction, size, and opening time are not exposed on public account trails (reported by CoinGape / BSCN, etc.).
Underlying execution and liquidity still run on Hyperliquid (about 50+ markets, up to about 40x leverage). On the NEAR side, Confidential Intents / private shards are used for privacy and cross-chain intent routing, allowing funds to come in from over 35 chains; previously, confidential-related TVL was reported at around $70 million. Restrictions may apply in the US, Canada, and other regions; leverage amplifies gains and losses—launching does not equal no risk, privacy does not equal no liquidation, and it is certainly not a signal call.BTC has closed above 77167 on the 4H chart, with trading volume expanding 2.59 times
The previous note set 76775 as BTC's 4H recovery line. From 08:00 to 12:00, the 4H candle closed at 77379.5, $604.5 above the recovery line, and $212.2 above the previous six 4H highs at 77167.3, indicating the prior weak trend judgment has been fully repaired.
This 4H spot trading volume was 74.8904 million USDT, 2.59 times that of the previous candle. BTC perpetual contract open interest snapshot rose from $2.9015 billion at 10:00 to $2.9251 billion at 11:00, an increase of 0.81%. The open interest snapshot and spot 4H data belong to different data buckets; currently, it can be confirmed that there was an increase in positions within this 4H period, but it cannot be concluded that the entire trend was accompanied by synchronized position increases.
The 4H candle has closed above 77599.8, confirming the recovery anew; however, the 4H candle has closed back below 77167.3, invalidating this round of recovery. If the next 4H trading volume falls but still holds above 77167.3, would you revise your judgment?
#BTC #TradingWatchGood afternoon, friends, it's Friday again, and I'm in a good mood today. The market is doing well.
$BTC 77310, the rate hike didn't break it down, 76,000 held firm. The moving averages are still supporting, but momentum is average, more like holding steady rather than a new main rise. Let's first see if 75,200–76,200 can become a floor.
$ETH 2477, almost no movement, following the rise but not leading, stuck at the 2500 threshold, don't expect it to lead for now.
$ZEC 1517. Governance votes almost all passed, block production needs to speed up, halving schedule remains. Paradigm publicly holds it, saying it's a privacy complement to Bitcoin. Shorts are squeezed, market cap is pushing forward. It’s rising sharply; next, watch if the upgrade lands or if it’s time to sell.
$UNI is the craziest today, 8.63, up more than twenty percent in one day. Fees plus burn, new chain transactions are strong again, wedge breakout followed by acceleration. The story is solid, but this price is no longer cheap. BTC is holding, ETH is following, ZEC talks privacy, UNI talks fee rights. Rotation is more obvious than a single trend, manage your own positions. I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Today's position daily sentiment: 56% bullish, 37% neutral, 7% bearish, bulls dominate.
Macro favorable factors pile up: The US SEC issued a conditional exemption allowing public permissionless blockchain tokenization of US stock on-chain trading, with Solana highlighted as a compliant infrastructure platform. Institutional adoption accelerates, $SOL ETF holdings reach 10.58M SOL, spot net inflow of $836K, Galaxy launches institutional vault on Kamino.
Russia's MOEX launched perpetual futures for $BTC, $ETH, SOL, etc. on September 22, with over 72,000 qualified investors participating. Fundamentals upgrade in sync, Solana mainnet Transaction V1 expands to 4096 bytes and activates 250ms slots, INJ launches on Sunrise.
Mid-term outlook: compliance, institutions, and traditional capital entry resonate, SOL ecosystem has strong explosive potential, accumulate core positions on dips.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径
The SEC and CFTC jointly issued interpretative documents establishing the "Five Categories Law" for crypto assets: digital commodities fall under the CFTC, digital securities under the SEC, and compliant payment stablecoins, digital tools, and digital collectibles each have defined boundaries. A key innovation is the "decoupling" mechanism: assets initially may be considered securities due to reliance on project efforts, but as the project matures or is abandoned, the investment contract attributes can be decoupled, no longer subject to securities laws. Meanwhile, PoW mining, PoS staking, token wrapping, and compliant airdrops are excluded from securities issuance.
In regulatory coordination, Project Crypto has been upgraded to an inter-agency initiative, with both parties signing an MOU establishing the "minimum effective dose" principle to reduce duplicate registrations and conflicting obligations. On the market side, the SEC approved Nasdaq and NYSE tokenized securities trading rules and granted a five-year conditional innovation exemption for tokenized securities trading venues, opening a channel for traditional stocks to be tokenized on-chain.
This marks a shift in U.S. on-chain financial regulation from enforcement-driven to rule-driven, seeking a balance between investor protection and innovation. However, secondary market trading, hybrid token supply, and retrospective application of investment contracts remain to be clarified. If Congress advances market structure legislation, it will provide a more solid legal foundation. #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #美联储10月再加息概率破55% $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ZEC on-chain data just came out, and it gave me goosebumps.
Market situation: Shorts are being publicly executed
Among the top four $ZEC whale holders, three are shorting, and only one is holding long positions. The fourth short position at the $1400 level was directly taken out—$20 million position wiped out to zero. Not just unrealized loss, but zeroed out.
Even more outrageous is the whale entity Garrett Jin, who started shorting from $400 and kept adding as the price rose. Last night, when ZEC surged 12%, he shorted another 5,000 ZEC at an average price of $1252.5 (about $6.26 million). He now holds 37,760 ZEC short positions, valued at about $50.99 million, with an unrealized loss of $25.85 million. The more he shorts, the harder he holds; the harder he holds, the more he shorts.
In the past 24 hours, $ZEC's total liquidations across the network reached $57.36 million, second only to $BTC and $ETH. Before the Fed decision, another whale opened a $10 million 10x leveraged short; within less than three hours, it was fully liquidated, losing nearly $900,000. Currently, the largest liquidation wall for $ZEC on Hyperliquid is stacked at $1550, with about $20.4 million in liquidation volume waiting there.
News perspective: This rally is not driven by sentiment, but by solid fundamentals
Grayscale's $ZEC spot ETF has attracted nearly $700 million in assets in less than two weeks since its launch on August 25. Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang publicly confirmed the company holds ZEC, putting institutional endorsement on the table. The NU7 upgrade vote passed with 99.9% approval to cut block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and 98.9% support to retain Bitcoin-style halving.
Three forces—the real money buying from the ETF, public institutional backing, and network fundamental upgrades—collide with the extremely crowded short positions. Every short liquidation is a market buy order, pushing prices higher and triggering the next layer of liquidations. A self-reinforcing meat grinder.
Whales are no different from retail investors in front of institutions. $20 million at the $1400 level was swallowed without even a splash.
The next key level for $ZEC is $1400. If it breaks above, there’s another batch of shorts waiting to be liquidated at $1550. If it doesn’t, the buyers chasing longs become the next fuel. The cruelty of financial markets never discriminates by size.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 浮盈处理的核心在于严格遵循预设规则而非情绪驱动，多位成功交易员的共同策略是结合技术信号与分批止盈，避免因贪婪或恐惧导致利润回吐。以下是半木夏、肥仔比特币、比特皇、欧阳拽白四位交易员止盈策略的提炼总结： 一、半木夏：低倍杠杆下的纪律性分批止盈 1. 分批止盈为核心 - 采用资金分批次止盈，避免一次性离场错失后续行情。例如在趋势行情中，每达到目标盈利区间（如10%-20%）即卖出部分仓位，剩余仓位根据趋势延续性动态调整。 - 关键信号触发减仓：当技术指标出现趋势弱化信号时（如4小时级别MA120跌破超2%、MACD柱状图连续缩短），逐步减少仓位。 2. 移动止盈与定期提现 - 通过移动止盈法锁定利润：行情上涨时逐步上调止损位，例如盈利达20%后，将止损上移至成本价+10%；盈利达30%后，止损设为成本价+15%，确保最低盈利底线。 - 强制定期提现：每1-2周将部分利润提取至冷钱包，避免账户浮盈干扰心态，这一习惯帮助他在2024年退隐时保留5000万实盘收益。 二、肥仔比特币：浮盈加仓与趋势终结信号离场 1. 趋势确认后的动态止盈 - 仅在浮盈状态下加仓，且加50 billion USD, not lost, but "evaporated."
This term is used very cleverly. A market maker friend once told me: book profits are for retail investors to see, real liquidity in cash is what the whales prepare for. These reserve companies initially put coins on their balance sheets, stock prices soared with coin prices, and everyone thought they were geniuses. Now that coin prices have softened, stock prices are falling even faster than coins—because leverage is a double-edged sword, amplifying faith when prices rise and amplifying panic when prices fall.
The funniest thing is that now they are starting to investigate employee salaries. Lost 50 billion, the first reaction is to check the payroll?
It's like the house is on fire, and the first meeting is to discuss whether the property fees are reasonable.
I guess there will be more "shareholder rights protection" dramas next, but the real questions should be: how many coins do these companies still hold, what is the cost basis, are there any pledges, and are they being chased by liquidation lines.
No one is checking these.
Checking salaries is so safe, anyway nothing can be found, and it makes it look like they are doing something.
The next wave won't be a rights protection wave, but a liquidation wave.
#摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 $BTC $ZEC ZEC, do you still dare to rush in and chase the long now? Are you ready to stand guard as a bag holder for the whales?
Looking at the whale data, among 533 whales, 372 hold long positions, with a total long position of 417.39M. The average entry price is only 958.81, and the profit ratio has directly reached 93.54%, with unrealized gains on the books as high as 153 million U.
On the short side, there are 161 whales, with an average entry price of 1359. The vast majority are deeply in loss, with a nominal long-short ratio of 368.49%, and shorts are basically being crushed.
Think carefully, would the market makers really smash real money to keep pushing up, allowing this large group of long whales who have made huge profits to safely exit and cash out?
The shorts that should have been liquidated are long gone. Now the market is left with only longs who have already made big profits. Once they collectively take profits and exit, a stampede correction will come suddenly.
Current price: 1513
Resistance level: 1526 (previous high)
Defense lifeline: 1330. Once broken, it signals long profit-taking and exit.
Although the market is strong, absolutely do not chase the rally at high levels. Don’t catch the last baton. Better to wait for a pullback to support than to stand guard at the peak. $USELESS nex Fengfeng Trading Notes (9.18 Afternoon Melon Eating Part 2):
Just finished lunch, originally wanted to take a nap, but ended up seeing a post about $USELESS from Hu Chenfeng circulating in the group. Wow, this melon is even more exciting than the previous ONE.
I glanced at the market: current price 0.27324, up nearly 7% today. The daily chart looks like onions sprouting from dry land, skyrocketing from 0.03 all the way to 0.33678, now hovering sideways at a high level. Over 400 million coins traded in 24 hours, with more than 100 million U in chips wildly changing hands. Although RSI is at 67.78, not quite overbought, EMA7 (0.239) and EMA30 (0.177) have completely diverged, price seriously deviating from moving averages, a typical sentiment-driven market.
Hu Chenfeng’s analysis makes sense: the previous surge wiped out the shorts, with 3.4 million U positions suffering over 1 million U in unrealized losses, the main force’s squeeze task basically completed. Now the bulls hold 2 million U in pure profit, all watching the market ready to run at any moment. Will the market makers spend big to push the price up and safely cash out this 2 million U? Anyone with toes can tell it’s impossible, no one to take the plate, in the end it can only be a bloodbath among the bulls. ⚡9.18 Morning Brief｜Three Major Overseas Key Events, Market Hides Uncertainties
Here are a few truly important macro news items to watch today.
1️⃣ Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, Internal Divisions
Last night the vote was 6:3 to keep the rate unchanged at 3.75%, but 3 members directly supported a rate hike.
Key reminder: Rate stability ≠ easing or bullish; don’t simply treat it as positive for the crypto space.
2️⃣ Main Event: Bank of Japan Decision Today
The market widely expects a rate hike to 1.25%, with the announcement at 14:30.
Kazuo Ueda’s press conference is critical. If he signals accelerated rate hikes, the yen will strengthen and risk assets will likely come under pressure.
3️⃣ Deutsche Bank Moves, Institutional Access Advances Further
Deutsche Bank announced plans to launch BTC and ETH digital asset custody services for European institutions within the year.
They are still completing regulatory procedures. Opening custody channels does not mean the bank itself is entering the market to buy crypto.
📈$BTC Short-term Strategy (valid only until the Bank of Japan decision is announced)
Support: 76200‑76300 | Resistance: 76900‑77200
Plan: After a pullback to support, if 76300 holds on the 15-minute chart, consider long positions between 76300‑76400
Stop loss: 75950
Take profit: 76900, 77100
⚠️ Cancellation conditions: If price breaks below 75950 before entry, or if price surges above 76400, abandon this plan.
If the order is not filled before the Bank of Japan decision, cancel it and reassess the market. $OKB / $MX
$OKB — around $114.
Held $108.50 through the Fed. Bouncing.
Support: $111–$108.50. Lose $108.50 and $106 is next.
Resistance: $116–$118. That’s the breakout.
$MX — following the exchange-token tape.
Same story as $OKB / $BNB. Hold the weekly low. Don’t chase the first pop.
$118 OKB is confirmation. Until then, range.🚨SEC drops a bombshell! The real winner of the good news isn't BTC, but ETH?
Many are still focused on Bitcoin's price, but they haven't grasped the deeper signals behind the SEC's heavy document released last night.
The SEC issued Innovation Exemption Order No. 34‑106402, which straightforwardly allows US stock tokenization, listing on permissioned AMM pools on public blockchains, with a 5-year pilot window.
Interestingly, just two days ago, the CLARITY Act narrowly failed in the Senate by a 49:50 vote, blocking the legislative path. Regulators simply bypassed Congress and directly pushed for rule implementation.
Here are the three core hard requirements:
1. The operating entity must be a US domestic entity; offshore institutions are excluded.
2. Smart contracts must be deployed on publicly auditable, permissionless public blockchain ledgers.
3. Tokenized securities must have the same native stock dividend and voting rights; purely synthetic assets are directly excluded.
Essentially, this officially migrates the massive order flow of US stocks onto the blockchain.
The market reaction says it all:
$BTC 76944, up only 0.97% in 24h, showing little movement.
$ETH 2465, up 1.64%.
The DeFi sector collectively exploded, with an overall increase close to 7%, and UNI surged 15% in a single day.
Why is BTC's reaction muted?
Bitcoin is more positioned as a reserve collateral asset. This tokenized US stock trading, settlement, and AMM underlying logic is precisely the mature system the ETH ecosystem has been running for years.
ETH is the biggest beneficiary of this new narrative. $ONE nex Windy Trading Notes (9.18 Midday Gossip Edition):
Just took a couple of bites of lunch, opened the group chat and got energized immediately. The whole screen was flooded with ONE. Wow, OKEx is delisting the ONE/USDT perpetual contract at 16:00 this afternoon, which has triggered a "doomsday wheel" market.
Looking at the daily chart, it's truly a capital meat grinder. A big bullish candle shot straight up to 0.002153, now it’s slammed back down near 0.001421. Although the intraday gain is still 12%, the 24-hour volatility is brutal. Over 130 billion ONE traded in 24 hours, nearly 200 million USDT volume. This turnover rate is pure gambling with lives.
Anyone with a bit of technical knowledge can see the RSI has soared to 84.49, seriously overbought, a classic extreme sentiment. From the bottom at 0.00058, it surged wildly, combined with the delisting announcement, it’s obvious the manipulators are using the last time window to frantically shake out positions and explode contracts. Spot traders want to jump ahead, contract traders want to gamble foolishly, both longs and shorts get crushed, whoever gets greedy dies.
Honestly, this kind of money isn’t for ordinary retail investors. Chasing highs is like catching a flying knife, shorting can get wiped out by a single spike anytime. Just saw someone sharing a trade, going long ZEC with 20x leverage and pocketing 96% profit. Today’s market really rewards the brave. But those brothers hanging their hopes at the peak 0.0021 are probably crowding the rooftop now.CHIP/USDT Perpetual｜Daily Level Market
Current price 0.04265, single-day increase close to +9.5%, ushering in a strong rebound.
Moving Averages: Price stands above EMA5, EMA10, EMA20; short-term moving averages are turning upward, Bollinger Bands middle band forming support.
MACD: DIFF is close to DEA, bearish green bars are continuously shrinking, downward momentum clearly exhausted, short-term rebound repair.
Strong resistance above: 0.05~0.06243, dense area of previous highs' trapped positions; key support below at 0.036.
Market Logic: AI chip sector linked rebound, combined with macro interest rate hike expectations' game, representing a recovery after a major drop.
Market Characterization: Rebound repair, trend reversal not yet confirmed.
Trading Idea: Prioritize observing resistance at the upper trapped position area during rebound; if unable to break through around 0.05, likely to fall back again. Holding support at 0.036 below is necessary for rebound continuation. The coin is highly volatile with frequent spikes; strictly control position size and set stop-loss properly.On September 11, LAB went from 0.1006 to 0.0388 in just a few hours. -61%。 It wasn't a fall, it was a stamp. In the following week, it slowly climbed back to between 0.046 and 0.056. On September 17, it stuck again at 0.06627 and was knocked back to the same level. Now 0.0511 is stuck in the middle of the range, neither going up nor down. At this point, something worth pausing and looking at on the market appeared: the long-short ratio was 7.4. This means the money wanted to go long was more than seven times that of short positions, with long positions accounting for over 90%. Everyone in the car was sitting in the same direction. But three other numbers are contradicting—Open interest: On September 14, there was still 98 million, now it's 73 million. The price is sideways and positions are being withdrawn, indicating it's not new money entering the market, but old money leaving. Funding rate: Positive throughout the past 7 days, peaking at 0.0175%. Bulls have been paying to hold positions, and holding positions comes with costs, and costs can wear you down. Basis: On the 4-hour chart, the price has narrowed from the high on September 13, with the premium cooling down. My reading: The -61% on 09/11 wasn't a regular pullback, but a crowded bulls trampling each other. Now, crowding has returned to a high level—same structure, just changed price positions. There are only three things on the watchlist that can be taken away: 1. Volume reclaiming the 0.056 level is just the passing line; Standing above the 0.0663 needle and opening interest rebounds, the rebound will be secondFundamental Traps: What to Do When the Data Looks Good but the Coin Price Won't Rise 📊
Many coins have on-chain TVL and institutional partnerships continuously landing, yet their prices remain flat or even decline.
The Real Dilemma:
Studying a large amount of data, selecting fundamentally strong assets, but underperforming the market for a long time;
Watching Bitcoin rise while your holdings stay stagnant, unable to resist cutting losses and switching positions;
After switching, the original holdings start to recover.
Two Possible Paths:
Path A: Deep value approach, selecting fundamentally strong assets like $LINK and $ATOM, building positions gradually, giving the narrative enough time to materialize.
Path B: Market-priority approach, even if fundamentals are good, without capital inflow signals, remain on the sidelines and do not preemptively position.
$HBAR has many institutional partnerships, but news does not equal immediate price surge.
Fundamentals provide long-term confidence, but short-term coin prices are dictated by capital and market sentiment.Trading with a strategy of going long and short is actually a tactic.
Just like this wave of $ZEC, the current upward trend is still ongoing, so there is no opportunity to short at the highest point. Wait a bit, knowing it will fall but the market hasn't reached the time to drop yet. Going against the trend to make profits can indeed be large, but you only have one chance to short at the highest point.
Look at the long-term direction, and follow market changes in the short term.
But many people say holding long-term means just holding dead weight, without considering the cycle's stage, claiming they are optimistic about the company.
Timing the short positions is more important than which asset to choose.
The core of going long lies in incremental growth and pullback confirmation.
Support levels in an uptrend are true support.
Resistance levels in a downtrend are true resistance.
#ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 Rate hikes themselves are not negative. In the early hours of September 17, the Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023, with 12 members unanimously approving it. The dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike before the end of the year. But before the decision, CME FedWatch showed a rate hike probability as high as 92%—meaning the market had priced in it, and the impact was just a reality. Holding the $76,000 logic: Leverage cleared early. The wave of liquidations released downward pressure, and the remaining long positions' cost structure is healthier and more resistant to volatility. Spot market resilience remains. US spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $746 million over two consecutive days ($450.4 million on September 15, $295.9 million on September 16). Policy wording is relatively mild. Fed Chair Wash called this rate hike a "withdrawal of easing" rather than "strengthening restrictions," which the market interpreted as a preventive adjustment rather than the start of continuous tightening, easing concerns over long-term high interest rates. The results showed a clear contrast: Bitcoin was quoted at $77,599, up 1.35%; ETH, XRP, and DOGE each rose about 2%, and SOL rose nearly 4%; However, U.S. stocks closed lower across the board, with the Dow Jones down 1.21%, hitting its lowest closing point since mid-June, and the S&P dropping 0.45%. Why Multiple Negative Factors Have Failed: The 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5%, Brent crude surpassed $100, and Senate procedural votes on the CLARITY Act were blocked—three factors that should have suppressed risk assets existed but did not trigger sell-offs. $ZEC Why no pullbackBitcoin｜September 18
Current price around $76,900–$77,300, approximately +0.5% to +1.1% in 24 hours. This is a weak rebound after falling near $75k.
The proportion of unprofitable production has dropped from nearly 60% to about 27%, healthier than mid-year but not strong enough to absorb the long-term cost wall at $83k–$86k.
Capital flow
• ETF: About -$450 million on the 15th, about -$300 million on the 16th, nearly flat with slight outflow on the 17th. The inflow at the beginning of the month has been partially reversed.
• Exchanges: Whales have been continuously net depositing from the 15th to 17th, about +3,204 / +2,703 / +4,278 BTC, somewhat dispersed.
• Corporate treasuries: Only increased by about 5,900 BTC in the past three months, buying is cold.
• Stablecoin supply: About $301 billion, flat, not much new ammunition.
Neutral to slightly weak: Selling pressure is not heavy, but new demand has stopped. More like grinding costs between $75k–$80k, neither a main rise nor a crash clearance. To turn strong, watch for ETF inflows again + price holding above $80k; to turn weak, watch if it breaks below the $71k active cost.$ETH needs a catalyst to catch up — a fee spike, a reversal in flows, or a sign that $BTC has already made its move.
Hope isn’t a catalyst.
If $ETH only starts moving after BTC is already stretched, you may simply be buying leftover beta at a less attractive price.
Watch the trigger, not the hope. 📊
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve $APT has been consolidating at the weekly bottom for one to two months. If today's daily retracement doesn't drop below halfway, it can be considered the start of a mid-term trend. If the daily chart consolidates and forms a bottom over the next two days, that would be perfect. Entering now has too large a stop-loss range, so wait for the 4-hour chart and moving averages to converge before trying to add one more position.The week when crude oil broke $100 and the 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, $BTC fell back to 76,800.
In the same institutional channel, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of 463 million, while ETH ETFs had a net inflow of 197 million. This is not a broad sell-off, but a rotation of funds between two types of assets. Short-term traders should focus not on the price, but on whether this divergence can continue.
The rising heat in commodity trading indicates that some funds have shifted to traditional assets to find direction.
Next observation point: if US Treasury yields fall but BTC ETFs still have net outflows, the divergence logic will be overturned. Which side are you betting on with your positions?
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $BTC $ETH The most dangerous moment on the chessboard is never when the opponent sacrifices the queen for a strong attack, but when you clearly see the checkmate path yet find your rook pinned in place by the rules.
Forty-nine to fifty. Eleven votes short of the procedural threshold of sixty. Seven Democratic senators say this is a "setback, not the end." As someone who has been immersed in endgames for thirty years, my first reaction to this statement is: they haven't given up on this game, but the piece structure on the board has already revealed fatal weaknesses. Official cryptocurrency conflicts of interest, stablecoin yields, regulatory jurisdiction—these are not three separate issues, but three hanging pawns in the middle game, any of which could be captured at any moment.
A true master looking at this situation wouldn't focus on the eleven-vote gap. They focus on the pawn structure on both kingsides. The bipartisan cooperation promise is, in chess terms, equivalent to a "probing pawn sacrifice": I give you a pawn to see if you are willing to open the lines. But if the opponent chooses a closed position, this pawn sacrifice becomes a pure loss. The stablecoin yield line is especially subtle—it determines who controls the center of the entire game. Once regulators completely shut down this line, the so-called "rebuilding consensus" is just moving the king from one square to a more dangerous one.
Now look at the statements from the two regulatory heads. They say they will "continue to advance crypto rules within existing authority." Translated into chess terms: since the big diagonal legislative line is blocked, they will switch to the knight's small step jumps. The knight doesn't move in straight lines; it moves in detours. This is typical "endgame thinking"—when a strong attack can't be completed, use the king and pawns to slowly squeeze space. But the problem is, an endgame with only kings left has a very high probability of a draw. How much gap can regulatory rules fill? The answer is: they can fill squares, but not the battle.
Now look at another battlefield. $xNVDA, this tokenized US stock, is the piece on this board most like a "bishop on the opposite color square"—it clearly isn't on the same color square as crypto legislation, yet it can influence the attack on the other wing across half the board. Why? Because the three lines of clearing channels, capital flows, and risk appetite are shared. With legislation stalled and rules uncertain, institutional funds will first defend their kingside, and tokenized US stocks, this semi-cross-border piece, become the first pawn to be sacrificed. Or conversely, precisely because the main battlefield is stuck, funds will concentrate here to fight a local tactical battle.
In my career, I've seen too many such situations: before a draw is officially declared, one side quietly prepares tactics in the corner. The seven senators' statement is not a signal to surrender; it is laying the groundwork for the next forced piece exchange.
The question now is not whether consensus can be rebuilt, but who first sees the true piece balance on this board. The big diagonal legislative line is blocked, but the squares beside the diagonal remain. #clarityactpathforward $RAY The most unusual detail today is: a 24h surge of 17.28%, yet the funding rate remains at +0.0000%. The price has already surpassed the upper Bollinger Band at 1.61155 (current price 1.6675), RSI has soared to 77.8, but there is no obvious long funding on the perpetual side—indicating this rally is mainly driven by spot buying and short covering, rather than leveraged funds actively chasing longs. In this structure, shorts are the fuel, not the counterparty.
From the long-short game perspective, MA5=1.56576 firmly suppresses MA20=1.48933, MACD histogram +0.01641 maintains bullishness, so the trend is intact; however, RSI 77.8 combined with price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band means the short term has entered an overbought spike zone, and the 30 candlesticks’ amplitude of 18.56% implies very volatile wicks. The fear and greed index at 56 leans greedy but not extreme, so there is still some appetite for chasing longs.
Directionally, I am bullish but will not chase the high; I will wait for a pullback. Entry reference is 1.600–1.630 (pullback confirmation near the upper Bollinger Band 1.61155, also close to MA5); Take profit 1 at 1.780 (extension of previous high, RSI inertia target after dulling); Take profit 2 at 1.870 (amplitude equal measurement); Stop loss at 1.520 (if it breaks below MA5 and loses the 1.55 integer level, the bullish structure is considered broken). If the funding rate turns clearly positive during the rally, be wary of crowded longs and reduce positions then.Many people rush to call overbought and short when they see RSI above 70, which is a typical misinterpretation of the indicator — in a strong trend, RSI can remain high and flat for a long time. What really matters is whether the moving average structure and momentum are weakening in sync.
$SHIB current price is 5.39e-06, up 8.02% in 24h. From a technical perspective, MA5=5.306e-06 has crossed above and stabilized above MA20=5.1635e-06, with short- and mid-term moving averages in a bullish alignment, indicating a sound trend structure. MACD histogram +2.124e-08 remains bullish, momentum is not exhausted. RSI=77.1 is indeed in the overbought zone, but combined with volume-driven upward movement, it is a sign of strength rather than a reversal signal. Bollinger Bands [4.95582e-06, 5.37118e-06], current price is close to the upper band 5.37118e-06, short-term pullback to the middle band is expected.
Key levels: resistance above at Bollinger upper band 5.37e-06 and extended previous highs; support below first at MA5 5.306e-06, strong support at MA20 5.1635e-06. The Fear and Greed Index at 56 is in the greed zone, sentiment is warm but not extreme, leaving room for further upside.
In terms of operation, do not chase highs; wait for a pullback near MA5 to enter. The Fed's 25 basis point rate hike is like adding another layer of prestressing tension to a load-bearing column already poured to a height of 3.75%-4.00%—this isn't just renovation, it's a structural redesign.
When you have one million in capital to invest, the first thing I do isn't to draw the facade, but to review the geotechnical report. Crypto, US stocks, and commodities—these three plots of land have completely different load-bearing capacities. Crypto is soft soil, it settles quickly but also rebounds quickly, suitable for pile foundations with raft slabs, meaning spot trading as the base, dollar-cost averaging as settlement joints, and grid trading as dampers to absorb shocks; tokenized US stocks, like that certificate linked to Google, are steel structures—rigid and tough, but the joints must be earthquake-proofed because you're trading stress transmission during US stock market hours, and the bending moments differ between on-chain and off-chain time zones; commodities are the real rock foundation, resistant to uplift and compression, but with long construction cycles, futures and options act as deep foundation pit supports on this rock layer, where any carelessness can cause collapse.
The Fed's dot plot is still pointing upward, meaning the groundwater level is dropping, and all cantilever structures supported by leverage will develop cracks. At this time, cross-market mixing is essentially a structural system selection: you can't just randomly splice frame structures and shear walls; you must calculate their displacement coordination under seismic waves. Spot trading is the reinforcement ratio of the base slab, dollar-cost averaging is the post-cast strip, grid trading is the energy-dissipating support, and futures are the tower crane—they can lift height but also pull the whole building down.
I've seen too many projects with stunning renderings and beautiful white papers, but the waterproofing on the underground three floors wasn't done, and three years later the load-bearing walls suffered alkali rebound. What truly determines whether a building can stand is never the color of the curtain wall, but the invisible stirrups in the reinforcement drawings.
The second phase of the rate hike cycle isn't redesigning, but reviewing structural safety. Whoever has settlement monitoring points in their ledger is the only one qualified to discuss the floor height of the next level. #okx1millionstrategistForget about whether it’s going to $100k or $50k for a moment.
What this weekly chart really shows is a volatility squeeze.
Long-term uptrend line intact
Downtrend line from the ATH intact
Price trapped between both 🥵
$BTC is not in a clear trend
It’s in a decision zone where the next breakout will define the bias for the coming months.
Until this structure is resolved, the smartest move is not to guess
Do you trade the breakout? #OutcomesOnOrbit 💰
$ONE is a perfect reminder that price action and fundamentals can tell two completely different stories.
The project has faced:
• A major security incident
• Billions of tokens stolen
• Mainnet shutdown
• Migration toward Ethereum
• Extremely thin liquidity
Yet the token is still climbing aggressively.
When volume becomes several times larger than market cap, I start watching liquidity and positioning rather than simply chasing the chart.
Is this a real turnaround or a speculative squeeze?Today's market
About to head out, can only write a brief note
Overall, the market is slightly bullish today. Yesterday, there was a lot of pressure from market news: FOMC was hawkish, volatility from the Clarity Act, and ETFs had outflows for two consecutive days (nearly 300 million yesterday). However, BTC did not break below yesterday's previous low in the small range or the 4-week large range....
If it can hold steady despite so many negatives, that itself indicates strength.
Buy orders on both sides remain solid.
The large 75k whale's branded orders and various buy orders also helped defend against yesterday's bad news.
Open Interest is still high... shorts haven't exited.
Most short positions are below 77.3k.
If it wants to break upwards, 77.3k needs to be reclaimed (only then can shorts be forced to surrender).
Reclaiming it could fuel shorts to continue testing 79-80k.
If it can't reclaim, a new consolidation range will form at the current level.
Currently, 77k faces resistance from Coinbase spot and futures.
So, we need to see how the sentiment is in New York today.
Regarding premium on the funding side, it will be more accurate after New York fully wakes up.
Right now, it is still slightly negative. ⚡
$ONE looks less like a normal recovery and more like a highly speculative trade.
The project went through a major hack, lost billions of tokens, and announced the shutdown of its mainnet with a migration to Ethereum.
Now a token with roughly $20M market cap is seeing more than $100M in trading volume.
That’s a massive mismatch.
It doesn’t automatically prove manipulation, but it does show that volatility and speculation are extremely high.
What do you think is driving this move?Brothers, I just saw this huge ZEC short data on TradingBeats, and I was really shocked... This is definitely the biggest "nuclear bomb" on the market these days.
From last night to today, they cut losses 7 times: stopped out 7 times in a row, throwing in about 5,196,000 USD to cover, with an average cover price around 1484.4 USD. This operation directly lost 2,161,000 USD (about 15 million RMB) in real terms.
After cutting losses, there’s still a huge short position: previously holding over 23.5 million USD in shorts, this time they cut about 22.2% of the position, but still hold the main chunk—about 18.24 million USD in shorts! It’s a 4x full position with an average entry price of only 866.9 USD.
The unrealized loss is unbearable: the current floating loss is as high as 7,593,000 USD (-285.2%), plus the recent cut loss, this position has lost nearly 9,755,000 USD in total (almost 100 million RMB)!
The liquidation line is forced into a corner: by cutting losses, the estimated liquidation price was forcibly raised from 1508.9 to 1550.64 USD, but now the price is only about 4.4% away from this liquidation line! And they set a market stop loss at 1550 USD, just 0.64 USD away from the liquidation price...
Why is 1550 USD called a "super nuclear bomb"? Looking at the liquidation wall distribution on TradingBeats, across the entire Hyperliquid, the 1550 USD level is holding down about 20.4 million USD in liquidation volume!
What does this mean? Within a 500 USD range above and below the current price, other liquidation walls are at most around 5 million USD, but the 1550 USD level is more than 4 times that!
This means:
The bulls are definitely eyeing this level: market speculators and major players can’t miss this juicy target. As long as the price is pulled up another 4%~5%, breaking through 1550 USD, this 20+ million USD short liquidation plus the big player’s market stop loss will be triggered instantly!
Once 1550 is broken, market buy orders will flood in aggressively to cover shorts, instantly pushing the price up like a rocket, possibly even causing a spike with a long wick!
Right now, the shorts are basically licking blood on the knife’s edge. The big players know there’s 20 million USD liquidity above to "eat," and the bulls’ momentum could strike anytime to test 1550. Opening shorts now risks being instantly wiped out by that liquidation spike.
Sit back and watch, let’s see if the bulls can push the price up to 1550 tonight!🚨
$ONE is rising fast. But the fundamentals raise questions.
After the August hack and the decision to shut down its long-running mainnet, the project’s structure changed significantly.
Yet trading volume has suddenly exploded relative to its small market cap.
That creates a very different setup:
Low liquidity + huge volume + sharp price movement = extreme risk.
I wouldn’t chase a move like this blindly.
Would you trade $ONE here, or stay away?A token whose original mainnet was shut down after a major hack deserves a closer look. The token reportedly suffered a huge sell-off after 2.8B ONE tokens were stolen, followed by the announcement of a migration to Ethereum ERC-20. Now the trading activity looks unusual: 📈 Market cap: ~$20M 📊 Volume: ~$107M ⚠️ Very thin liquidity That kind of volume can create extreme volatility. Is this genuine recovery, or simply a short-squeeze driven rally?Robinhood's CFO sold 11,472 shares at $110.42 each, netting $1.26 million.
My first reaction wasn't envy, but to check what I did last time I saw an executive selling shares — I chased in. The result was getting stuck while watching others count their money.
To be clear, it's very normal for executives to sell stock; a large part of their salary is in shares, so if they don't sell, what do they spend?
But there's a detail: after selling, he still holds 56,858 shares. It's not a full exit, just a partial reduction.
So don't automatically assume "selling" means bad news. If you really want to watch, watch if others follow and sell afterward.
When you see executives selling shares, is your first reaction to run or to watch?
#摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金
#Arc主网上线首日数据出炉 #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 $ZEC $UNI's +18% today, I don't think it's just a simple rebound.
I used to think the biggest problem with UNI was:
Uniswap is very profitable, but what does that have to do with UNI?
Now this question is starting to have an answer.
Protocol fees have started,
revenue is beginning to be converted into UNI Burn through the mechanism.
At the same time, recently Uniswap:
single-day swaps exceeded 7 million,
and the trading volume in the past 30 days is about $71B.
This is interesting.
Real users → real trades → protocol revenue → UNI Burn
This is the token economic model I like.
Before, buying UNI was buying the story of the “DEX leader,”
now it’s starting to feel like buying
on-chain transaction-generated cash flow.
So for this round of UNI, I will keep watching.⛰️ $UNI Interest rate hike implemented, don't rush to call a reversal yet
The first rate hike in three years has landed, and the dot plot still leaves a hint of "possibly one more this year." In the short term, I'm actually calm: those who needed to bet have already done so, the boot has dropped, and it's easy to first see a wave of correction.
But correction is not reversal. Tightening hasn't exited, and the valuation pressure on BTC and ETH won't disappear automatically.
I tend to think: the second rate hike may not actually come. If the Middle East situation eases, oil prices fall, and inflation continues to cool, the Fed could change its stance at any time. What is being traded now is "possibly more hikes," not "definitely more hikes."
So look separately:
Short term, watch the quality of the rebound after the negative news is priced in;
Medium term, watch oil prices, inflation, and Fed rhetoric.
Don't negate the suppression with a single bullish candle, nor bet on a crash with just one rate hike.
The market always trades on expectations, and expectations change. For BTC and ETH going forward, just watch: can the rebound hold, or will it rise then face pressure again.
Stay steady, don't chase recklessly after major events. This time, will you wait for confirmation or rush to catch the correction? $BTC Initial principal: 140 USDT Current total assets: about 20,680 CNY Today's profit: +536 CNY (+2.66%) Historical peak: about 33,000 CNY $ZEC This short position has been held continuously since early September, and it really taught me one thing: misjudging the direction doesn't mean the longer it lasts, the better the chance of a turnaround. After the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, ZEC actually continued to strengthen, reaching about $1,513 on September 18, setting a new all-time high again. The anticipated NU7 upgrade has also attracted market attention, with nearly 99.9% of votes supporting shortening block time to 25 seconds while retaining the existing halving mechanism. Previously, I had been waiting for news to materialize, originally expecting a trend reversal near key levels. But the market did not move as expected. When the price keeps breaking through key levels, continuing to hold on is no longer "persistence"—it's a battle with your own judgment. So this time, I chose to exit. How much it can rise after closing the position no longer matters. Trading isn't about proving you're right, nor is it about trying to win or lose with the market. Admit mistakes, exit once you reach risk control levels, and keep chips in your account for the next opportunity. During these 161 days, there were profits and drawdowns; There were times when you caught the market, and times when you misjudged. Gradually, I realized the real difficulty isn't finding opportunities, but learning to accept: some market trends simply don't belong to you. Don't regret profits you've already made, nor do you want to do it onceBefore buying, I hoped the price would drop, drop, drop; after buying, I hoped the price would rise, rise, rise.
Last week, I laid out options for SanDisk $xSNDK from 1400 to 1600, originally thinking I could earn some interest and then accumulate some spot.
Unexpectedly, the dual-currency card point I bought a week ago is currently all about earning interest today, without triggering any spot delivery. The market has been quite cooperative...
Overall, this time it’s somewhat like it ran away; although the interest income is very attractive (annualized close to 100%), without spot delivery, I still have to wait for the next low-buy opportunity.
I still have 30% of my funds reserved; I originally planned to catch it if it really dropped, but it didn’t give me the chance, so I’ll just keep waiting.
In other words, no matter whether the market goes up or down next, I have prepared my decisions before buying. I know exactly what I should do. From now on, I just need to act according to my judgment to do things with high probability or high expectation. I believe this is extremely important in trading.
I’m not afraid of missing the market; I only worry about excessive risk. Strict risk control is one of the prerequisites for making money.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #OKX百万规划师 ZEC Analysis:
Technical Aspect:
Strong upward channel, currently at 1,506,
close to the upper Bollinger Band (1,546).
Support: 1,440 (middle band) → 1,350
Resistance: 1,524–1,550 → Target 1,750–1,865
Short-term bias is bullish but overbought; a pullback to 1,440–1,470
is a better entry point.
Fundamental Aspect:
1. NU7 vote overwhelmingly passed
(block time reduced to 25 seconds + halving maintained), confidence greatly increased.
2. Q3 retrospective allocation voting started today (37 proposals)
community governance is active.
3. Institutional attention + short liquidations amplify the rally.
Conclusion:
Fundamentals are strong, technical momentum remains, but gains are already large.
Operation: partial profit-taking for existing positions, wait for pullback if entering;
be cautious if it falls below 1,400.
(For reference only, not investment advice)
$ZEC #ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注 Can xAAPL surge to 344? The key lies in this hesitation.
There's a chance, but 344 is a tough nut to crack. It depends on whether the main players are willing to invest heavily and push the volume up. The current price is 336, about 2.5% short of 344, basically still crouching at the starting line without a real jump. The 344 level is the previous all-time high for US stocks, with many trapped investors above it. Once it reaches there, these people will definitely rush to sell to break even, creating heavy selling pressure. So 344 is like a wall; breaking through it requires a particularly strong buying force.
Fortunately, Apple's recent new product launches, expectations for the foldable iPhone, and institutions setting a target price of 370 are all fueling the bulls and providing confidence to break through. But the biggest variable is that you're trading the tokenized stock xAAPL, which just launched and still has unstable liquidity. Also, it trades 24 hours, so volatility can be intense when US markets are closed at night. If it breaks through 344 with volume and holds, that truly opens the upside, potentially reaching 360 or even higher; if it tries to break through without volume, it's likely a false breakout and will quickly fall back. If the breakout fails and it breaks support, it may retest around 312, so contract traders should watch out for liquidation risks.
In short, 344 is not the end but a watershed. Breaking through means vast opportunities ahead; failing means continued choppy consolidation. We retail investors watch and wait for signals—don't be cannon fodder.
$xAAPL
#黄仁勋：英伟达明年芯片销量将翻倍 Two major negative factors hit, but $ETH hasn't even dug a deep pit yet
A 25bp rate hike was implemented, and the CLARITY bill was not passed.
The data looks like this: leveraged longs had already been cleared before the rate hike, and contract selling pressure was released early. Exchange $ETH holdings are still flowing out, with chips moving into staking and cold wallets.
What is it betting on: no one is really dumping spot, the price can't fall not because of strength, but because no one is selling.
Support is between 2330 and 2370, resistance between 2440 and 2460, so roughly a hundred-point range up and down.
The frustration is that even after all the negative news, it can't rise, stuck in the middle grinding.
Before CPI and non-farm payroll data come out, this range will likely continue to fluctuate.
What do you think, is this a bottoming process or is the drop not over yet?
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？ #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 $ETH Do not mistakenly judge price increases; patiently wait for the definite direction of fund transactions, as this is the best way to avoid subjective speculation. The market follows the law of price increases, so there is no need to judge excessively in advance. The real market opportunities come when you can continuously monitor the board and wait for the funds to settle before participating. BTC is the market's liquidity compass and leads the overall rhythm of the big plate. Even if the board maintains the price structure and there is a slight rebound, if liquidity is not sufficiently confirmed, all rises are short-term emotional fluctuations and do not indicate a trend reversal. A single bullish candlestick is insufficient to determine strength or weakness, and blindly riding the wind is the easiest way to fall into a false trend trap. ETH is the stress tester of fund sentiment. Only when the K-line structure strengthens, volume steadily returns, and price measures resonate can it prove that the market's risk appetite has truly warmed up. There is no rebound from fund support; it is a temporary repair and lacks the driving force to continue rising. ZEC is a target of high volatility, frequently washing the plate, indicating the market is changing. Its effective market resonates only by observing the three factors: price, volume, and fund flow. $XRP Key levels: The upper boundary at 1.31583 (Bollinger upper band) is the dividing line between bulls and bears, while the lower boundary at 1.30173 (MA20) is the last line of defense.
Currently, $XRP's spot price at 1.3263 has risen above the Bollinger upper band at 1.31583. MA5=1.30698 has crossed above MA20=1.30173, maintaining a bullish alignment. The MACD histogram at +0.002247 remains positive, indicating the trend is intact. However, the RSI has reached 67.5, approaching the overbought zone, and the price is running outside the Bollinger bands, suggesting a short-term pullback may be needed. The amplitude of the last 30 candlesticks is only 3.7%, with volatility compressed to a low level. This state often signals a potential reversal, so heavy positions are not advisable before the direction is confirmed.
The funding rate at -0.0013% is negative, indicating shorts are slightly paying the fee side, and the long crowding is not high, which is structurally healthier. However, the Fear and Greed Index at 56 is in the greed zone, meaning sentiment is not cheap, and chasing highs carries more risk than buying on dips.
Operationally, maintain a bullish outlook but do not chase highs. Entry reference is between 1.3020 and 1.3120, i.e., the pullback zone from above MA20 to near the Bollinger upper band. Set stop loss at 1.2876 (Bollinger lower band); breaking below this means the bullish structure fails and you must exit. Take profit 1 is at 1.3400, take profit 2 at 1.3650, corresponding to previous highs extension and measured targets.🔥 Ridiculous! ZEC has hit a new all-time high, yet the shorts are still aggressively adding positions!
ZEC continues to surge today, with OKX data showing a peak at $1513, setting a new historical high. Even more astonishing, the number of short positions in the derivatives market still clearly dominates. Data shows that the long-to-short account ratio for ZEC on Binance once dropped to only 0.3646, meaning the number of short accounts is about 2.7 times that of long accounts.
This is interesting: the higher the price rises, the more daring the shorts become.
And as short positions get increasingly crowded, as long as the price keeps breaking upwards, buy-to-close liquidations could further amplify upward pressure. Previously, when ZEC broke $1000, there was a forced liquidation of short positions exceeding $34 million.
But note, crowded shorts ≠ guaranteed continued short squeeze; violent reversals can also occur at high levels.
The question is:
How far can ZEC’s current short squeeze go? Is $1500 just the starting point, or is it already nearing a frenzy stage?👇$BTC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 Recently, I noticed some anomalies in the market.
It might just be an isolated case.
Switching $BTC to the 15-minute chart, you can see that last night the market barely rose.
But looking at those altcoins, like $UNI, $ZEC, and ondo.
They didn’t fluctuate back and forth like BTC at all.
When BTC rises, they surge along; when BTC falls, they either slightly rise or move sideways, and when BTC goes up again, they continue to rise.
I don’t know the reason for this; it should be a wild dance before a drop.
I believe the price movements of cryptocurrencies are highly homogeneous, with all altcoins mirroring BTC.
But last night’s market made me a bit cautious about future operations.
It makes me think that if BTC effectively breaks below 76000 again, there might really be one last big drop.
Then we will need to look for targets with large downward potential to operate on.