Orbit Post Sitemap
A counterintuitive logic: Why can financial assets continue to rise even as interest rates keep increasing?
Many traders have a deeply ingrained mindset: rate hikes = draining liquidity = risk assets fall.
But in an environment where government debt is already enormous, this logic might not be so simple. Because the flip side of rising interest rates is that the entire financial system's interest income is also increasing.
Banks can earn higher returns by placing reserves there; institutions and investors holding beautiful U.S. Treasury bonds can also get higher returns from short-term Treasury bills (T-bills). The larger the government debt scale, the more interest payments need to be made. In other words, high interest rates increase funding costs on one hand, but on the other hand, they also send more interest income into the hands of banks, institutions, and asset holders.
This creates a very interesting situation: the Federal Reserve is stepping on the brakes, but fiscal interest payments and the banking system might be injecting money back into the market.
From this perspective, even if the Federal Reserve stopped purchasing RMP-related assets in mid-August, if you factor in the expansion of bank balance sheets, the total assets of the entire system may still grow, and bank credit expansion itself can create deposit money.
Therefore, what really deserves attention is not just "what the interest rate actually is," but also whether the total amount of money and credit continues to expand. Bought more SOL today?
After cashing out $1 million, the whale opened another long position of 60,000 SOL
Smart money data shows that address 0x5986…89d9 closed a long position of 60,000 SOL $SOL today, realizing a profit of $1,000,700. Just 36 minutes later, the address reopened a long position of 60,000 SOL near $99.87.
The SOL long position is valued at $5,970,800, with an average entry price of $99.87, currently showing an unrealized loss of $21,300.
At the same time, there is a stop-loss order triggered at $81.494, with an estimated liquidation price of $57.57.
This whale's recent SOL trading win rate is not high: out of 14 closed trades, only 3 were profitable, a win rate of about 21.4%.
However, profits mainly come from a few large trades, with cumulative realized profits of $1,084,000 and cumulative realized losses of $175,500, netting a realized profit of $908,500.
Besides reopening a long position on SOL, the address also opened a long position of 2,000 ETH today and shorted 100 $BTC again. #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 Who would have thought that even after the Fed raised rates, the market didn't crash but instead stabilized $BTC
Last night, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, raising rates to 3.75%–4.00%, and the rate was unanimously approved 12-0, directly withstanding pressure from Trump to cut rates.
More importantly, the dot plot shows that the median interest rate rose to 4.1% by year-end, which means there is a high probability of another hike this year. October and December will be key windows for the future.
Interestingly, the market was not shocked. The Nasdaq closed mostly flat, while semiconductors led the gains, with SOXX up about 1%.
Why can U.S. stocks still hold up?
The answer is: the U.S. economy is still strong.
Retail sales in August grew by 1.2%, significantly exceeding expectations; The Federal Reserve also raised its GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.3%, while lowering the unemployment rate forecast to 4.1%. $ETH
Additionally, Washi mentioned three reasons why the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen above 5%:
First, a strong economy;
Second, AI giants are spending money and issuing bonds frantically, competing with the U.S. government for capital;
Third, geopolitical risks have driven up capital costs.
So the real contradiction now is:
AI driving economic growth is also frantically grabbing money;
The stronger the economy, the less reason the Fed has to cut rates quickly;
Meanwhile, financial and AI giants simultaneously require massive amounts of funding.
Therefore, what the market is trading now is no longer just about "25 basis point rate hikes."
What truly determines the future market trends is when inflation and oil prices will come down, and when the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates $ZEC
If the US-Iran situation eases, oil prices fall quickly, inflationary pressures ease, and the Fed will have fewer reasons to continue raising rates.
By then, once liquidity expectations for Bitcoin and US stocks warm up again, the market may truly restart its rally.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 The biggest hit from this interest rate hike surprisingly isn't on crypto, but on gold.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points last night, the first time in 2023, and in the dot plot, 16 out of 18 members still want to hike once more this year. As a result, gold dropped over a hundred dollars overnight, hitting around 4265 in the Asian session today, a one-month low. What about $BTC that same night? It still held around 76,000, no crash.
What does this have to do with crypto? The market had been pricing in the rate hike for weeks, so once it happened, the uncertainty was removed from the price. Gold fell because the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose, and non-interest-bearing assets got sold first—not because people no longer fear fiat depreciation. Even the hardest safe-haven asset took a hit; crypto just wobbled a bit, indicating those who should be worried had already exited during the previous correction. There's another meeting at the end of October, and some will still use it to scare people. In the big cycle, this kind of macro noise is always a discount during corrections.
On the night of March 12, 2020, I was also scared stiff, but later realized that during a drop, what matters most is whether you're still at the table, not how much it fell today. If your position isn't big and leverage isn't high, it's time to sleep and hold your base position.
Are you planning to wait for the October meeting to play out and then average in batches, or start averaging in now?Who would have thought that even with the Fed raising interest rates, the market didn't crash but instead stabilized. $BTC
Last night, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, increasing the rate to 3.75%—4.00%, and passed the vote unanimously 12-0, directly resisting Trump's pressure to cut rates.
More importantly, the dot plot raised the median year-end rate to 4.1%, meaning there is a high probability of another hike this year, with October and December being key windows.
But interestingly, the market was not scared into a crash. The Nasdaq basically closed flat, semiconductors actually led gains, with SOXX up about 1%.
Why can the US stock market still hold up?
The answer is: the US economy is still strong.
Retail sales in August grew 1.2%, significantly exceeding expectations; the Fed also raised this year's GDP growth forecast to 2.3%, and lowered the unemployment rate forecast to 4.1%. $ETH
Additionally, Walsh mentioned three reasons why the 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 5%:
First, a strong economy;
Second, AI giants are aggressively spending and issuing bonds, competing with the US government for capital;
Third, geopolitical risks have pushed up capital costs.
So the real contradiction now is:
AI drives economic growth but is also aggressively competing for money;
The stronger the economy, the less reason the Fed has to cut rates quickly;
Meanwhile, both the government and AI giants need large amounts of funding.
Therefore, the market is now trading on more than just a "25 basis point rate hike."
What truly determines the future market is when inflation and oil prices come down, and when the Fed stops raising rates. $ZEC
If the US-Iran situation eases, oil prices fall quickly, and inflation pressure decreases, the Fed will naturally have less reason to continue raising rates.
At that time, once liquidity expectations for Bitcoin and US stocks warm up again, the market may truly restart.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 🔷 Sellers are empty, buyers have returned: morning $BTC
• Night without triggers: boundaries held, by morning BTC around $76.5k
• Stocks rose, alts lead: ONDO +6.6%, SOL +2.6%
• MACD 4h positive for the first time in a week, 1d still negative
• CVD slightly negative, OI growing: money flows through futures
🧠 Rebound, not a reversal: 1d negative, spot silent. The market received clarity from Warshaw and is trading it upwards.
⚠️ As long as MACD 1d hasn't flipped — any upward move is a rebound within a downtrend.
🎣 Next post — entry points. $BAND BAND's order book is a bit tricky. Buy orders are densely stacked around 0.1827, the candlesticks have been sideways with low volume for several days, then suddenly volume spikes for a test—classic pump-and-dump manipulation. No news, purely a battle of funds; this is when it's easiest to get shaken out. My observation: only a firm hold above 0.18 counts as a real move; if it breaks below, admit the mistake and don't stubbornly hold. This is not financial advice; manage your own position size. How long have you been watching BAND? Is this a setup or a bull trap? Drop the tokens you're watching in the comments.
👇👇👇Why do most protocols issue only one token, and why does that token end up being nothing in particular? It has to serve as a governance credential and as an incentive reward; to carry the ecosystem’s vision and to bear price performance; to be both principal and yield, both an investment asset and a medium of consumption. One token is stuffed with five or six mutually contradictory functions, and the result is that it does none of them well enough. This is not for lack of care on the designer’s OpenAI says it won't IPO this year, yet it is reported to be discussing pre-IPO financing with a valuation exceeding $1.2 trillion.
To be honest, what makes this number most uncomfortable to me is not the high price, but that price discovery is becoming increasingly privatized. The company's fastest growth and biggest valuation jumps are shared by a few sovereign wealth funds and large institutions; by the time ordinary investors can finally buy on the public market, they may be handed a bill that has been marked up layer by layer.
Pre-IPO financing has another clever aspect: it can both supplement the massive computing power expenses and delay public market scrutiny of governance, cash flow, and risk disclosure. Security concerns can be used as a reason to postpone the IPO, but they have not stopped private capital from continuing to offer higher bids.
The most absurd scene of this AI feast may not be the valuation soaring to trillions, but that the public bears the externalities of the technology yet can only get a ticket to enter after the valuation matures.
#OpenAI拟IPO前融资，估值目标达1.2万亿美元 With the Fed catalyst now behind the market, attention is shifting back to liquidity, volume, and fundamentals. Here’s how I’m watching them: 🔥 $HYPE — The strongest setup of the group. Price is holding near the $80 zone, while Hyperliquid continues to have real protocol activity and a buyback-driven value story. The key question now is whether buyers can defend the recent support and reclaim higher levels. ⚡ $BICO — Still needs confirmation. BICO recently traded around $0.019, with daily volum$UVXY 10 minutes with zero trades, is this correct?$XLM current price 0.1828, the first resistance above is at the Bollinger upper band 0.1876, and the support below is at MA20 0.1795. These two levels determine who holds the upper hand in the short-term bulls vs. bears.
From the capital perspective, XLM funding rate is +0.0100%, the highest among the three candidates, indicating that perpetual market bulls are willing to continuously pay to hold positions, with funding clearly favoring the bulls. In terms of price structure, MA5=0.18282 has crossed above MA20=0.179545, MACD histogram +0.0005841 maintains bullishness, RSI 56.1 is in a neutral to slightly strong zone, not yet overbought, so there is still room to rise. 24h +3.51%, trading volume 22.3M USDT, the best volume among the three, combined with a 30-candle K-line amplitude of about 7.93%, indicates a moderate volume-driven push rather than an emotional spike.
The risk lies in the Fear & Greed Index reading of 50, a neutral value, meaning incremental funds have not fully entered. If the funding rate continues to rise while the price stagnates, it may trigger a bull squeeze and pullback, so chasing highs requires caution. Strategically, buying on dips near MA5 offers better risk-reward.Today's third trade: Long at 4291, exited at 4310, pocketed 19 points, 13426 profit.
The logic for this trade is the same: on the 15-minute chart, firmly stepping on support to go long, near the previous high resistance at 4310, not greedy, exit at the target.
This is the third trade of the day for group members, three trades, three wins. When the rhythm is right, you keep winning consecutively. In short-term trading, execution is more important than prediction. Hold when you should hold, don't hesitate when it's time to exit.
At the 4310 level, do you think it's resistance or a consolidation? Let's discuss in the comments. $XAU #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ Let me correct you first. Many people have seen a waterfall on the daily chart of this product plunge from 3000 to 190, with a 30-day drop of -91%, leading to the conclusion: SpaceX has collapsed. That wasn't a crash, it was a rebase. In June 2026, OKX switched this contract from an "estimated share capital" valuation basis to an "actual share capital" standard, then switched from a pre-IPO contract to a standard stock perpetual (see official website announcement). The pricing unit changed, the candlestick chart didn't have re-dividend, so the chart shows it was halved and halved again. This is similar to the ex-rights issue of A-shares or the stock split in the US market: 1 share split into 2 shares, the price goes from 100 to 50, your holdings double, but equity remains unchanged. Looking at such charts, first check for faults, then look at the rise and fall—if the order is reversed, the conclusion will be completely reversed. Back to today: 1. Structure: Two lows raised the September range: high 154.78, low 138.38. 09/16 second bottom test at 142.51, did not break the previous low of 138.38, then a large bullish candle recovered all the losses and climbed back above 152. Raising the low is a necessary condition for a double bottom, not a sufficient one—this statement is important; most people mistake "looks like" as "already established." The target measurement algorithm is not complicated: using the rebound high point at 152.99 as the neckline and the next low point at 142.51 as the base, the measurement amplitude = 152.99 − 142.51 = 10.48, then add up to theories#AnthropicIPO controversy continues
Safety calls for slowing down, but IPO and computing power haven't stopped
The market pricing reflects this tension
Reportedly still aiming for a 2026 listing and choosing Nasdaq
Secretly submitted draft S-1 to the SEC in June
Public prospectus and terms have not been disclosed yet
At the same time, reportedly signed a 6-year, $13.7 billion computing power contract with Rum Group
GPU expansion hasn't noticeably slowed due to safety concerns
On one hand, advocating slowing down frontier models
On the other, IPO pace and large-scale computing power proceed in parallel
Is safety a moat, or just amplifying valuation and capex pressure? The debate continues
For risk assets, it feels more like emotional disturbance
The real test will be the S-1 disclosure and contract fulfillment
So my judgment is: don't mistake calls to slow down as a signal to stop investing
$ANTHROPIC $BTC #AnthropicIPO controversy continues #AINegative news lands but no crash! Ultimately, news cannot change the trend
In the past two days, two major events have occurred consecutively: the failure of the Clear Act vote and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points. Both are solid negative factors for the crypto community.
But in reality, we have also seen that Bitcoin did not experience the expected sharp decline!
This illustrates one principle: the news itself is hard to reverse the market trend; the vast majority of positive and negative news has long been priced in by the market.
Often, when news is released and there is a surge or plunge, the root cause is not the news itself but that the market has already formed a bottom or top in advance. Truly mature traders do not overly rely on news but focus more on honing their technical skills and market reading.
After the Federal Reserve's rate hike, the anticipated crash did not occur. The 750 level could not be broken downward, and the market has already shown signs of a rebound.
From the CVD indicator on the order book, we can see: during the decline, CVD continued to fall to new lows, but the price did not simultaneously hit new lows.
This indicates that the active market sell pressure has exhausted, with a large number of buy orders supporting the bottom and absorbing selling pressure. This is a typical bullish divergence signal, meaning the downward momentum has dried up and the probability of a rebound has increased.
Next, focus on two resistance levels during the rebound: 773 and 780.
After the rebound meets resistance, look for opportunities to short at higher levels. Aggressive traders can go long at 758-761, targeting 768. #FederalReserve raises rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years $BTC $ZEC really gets stronger the more it shorts
The overall market is average, but ZEC quietly hit a new high again. It has pulled away from my entry price by a full $400, and the hope of breaking even is getting slimmer and slimmer. At least within this month, I can't expect to break even.
The hardest part about shorting is when you know it’s going to rise, but you can’t close your position because the losses are just too big. You don’t want to hit the close button because closing means a realized loss, but not closing means a floating loss, and then the losses just pile up more and more, making you even less willing to close the position—a vicious cycle.
Also, the long-short ratio for ZEC contracts is something I’ve only seen in small-cap altcoins that suddenly pump; I never thought it would appear in a top 10 mainstream coin. It’s absolutely ridiculous.
Most likely, it will continue to rise next. How much, I don’t know. I can only keep adding margin. All the profits I made elsewhere have been poured into this.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ My judgment: The advancement of the US crypto bill is a medium- to long-term positive, but in the short term, it only serves as a sentiment catalyst and is unlikely to directly trigger a unilateral surge.
The logic is very clear: currently, the two bills have only passed committee votes and are not formal legislation. The US congressional legislative process is lengthy, with uncertainties in Senate review and presidential signing stages. It could be modified or shelved at any time. Many market claims that "BTC is entering a national reserve bull market" are overly optimistic.
The "Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act" paves the way for industry compliance, facilitating institutional compliance entry, but it also clearly defines tax obligations on crypto assets, which will increase transaction costs, making it a double-edged sword.
The more critical constraint remains the macro interest rates. The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points, and the dot plot signals a hawkish bias, possibly raising rates once more this year. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5%. The high interest rate environment continues to suppress valuations of high-risk assets. Policy benefits can only offset part of the negatives and cannot reverse the overall liquidity tightening backdrop. This is also the core reason why BTC only rose slightly by 0.9% without an explosive rally. $ETH $BTC The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on 9/16, the first time since July 2023. The US Dollar Index closed at 100.31 that day, breaking above the MA120. Looking at data from 2010 to now, the US Dollar Index has officially crossed above the MA120 a total of 23 times. In the following 30 days, Bitcoin dropped 14 times and rose 9 times.
MA120 is originally my stop-loss line, so I took a closer look: after these 23 times, in the next 30 days, the proportion of Bitcoin declines was
$BTCZhongji Xuchuang's name appears on the accompanying list, which concerns me more than BYD or Xiaomi. It makes AI data center optical modules, and recent reports say it may face export restrictions from the United States.
On one side is the shadow of export controls; on the other, the possibility of accompanying the delegation to the U.S. The simultaneous appearance of these two signals indicates that optical modules are a significant bargaining chip at the negotiating table.
Market makers look at spreads and liquidity, not news headlines. The list itself does not generate transactions; implementation is what matters. The scale of corporate delegations is considerable, compared to the CEO lineup during Trump's visit to China in May this year, suggesting there is room for investment and trading.
But what insiders say is, in the end, just a possibility.
Before the news drops, fluctuations are all driven by emotions. I'll wait for the list to be confirmed before deciding whether to move.
#AI发展焦虑升温, regulatory discussions have escalated
#海力士回应美国扩产传闻 #财报观察员: Oracle AI cloud revenue up 121% $HYPE $UNI UNI dropped to 5.9 but I didn't panic; instead, I waited for this rebound, currently with a floating profit of 2400U
Last night, I positioned long near 6.21, originally targeting just around 6.5. Unexpectedly, after entering, the price once dipped to about 5.9. At that time, the market indeed showed pressure, but I didn't rush to cut losses due to the short-term pullback.
Why?
Because from the market perspective, there was clear support near 5.9; after the price dropped, it didn't continue to weaken. Since the key support wasn't effectively broken, it means that although bears were selling off, there were still buyers below.
So I chose to hold on to this position, betting on this rebound.
As a result, the market indeed gave an opportunity. UNI rebounded all the way from around 5.9 and has now reached near 6.7, not only recovering the entry price but also breaking through the original target of 6.5.
Currently, this position shows a floating profit of 2400U.
But at this point in the trade, I won't be greedy for the last leg; the profits to take have already been secured, and the exit point has been planned in advance. This time, I won't guess the highest point; I'll take profits when it's good enough. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $BTC Wash this time the dot plot shows 16/18 people support another rate hike within the year, with a high probability of one more in December. But the key is——
Middle East war → oil price capped at $100 → inflation won't come down → rate hikes continue → strong dollar
Strong dollar → gold under pressure (down 1.5% today) → but war safe haven provides support
Tariffs + inflation → US stock valuations under pressure → Dow down 3 consecutive days hitting a new stage low
However, crypto assets have shown independence in this "hawkish + war + tariffs" conflicting environment, indicating funds are looking for things the Fed can't control
BTC is the digital gold narrative, $ZEC is privacy + scarcity narrative, $ETH is stuck in the middle waiting for October catalysts. The three directions have different logics, but today all proved: rate hikes landing = bad news fully priced in, short-term bottom confirmed.Rate pressure just hit the market, crypto legislation remains stuck in uncertainty, and yet Bitcoin’s weekly move is only around -1.5%. That reaction is what catches my attention. 👀 If the headlines keep getting worse but BTC keeps absorbing the selling, the downside pressure may be losing some force. $BTC holding the $75K–$76K area is becoming increasingly important. The longer Bitcoin refuses to collapse despite negative catalysts, the more interesting the next liquidity move becomes. 🎯🔥 #B#海力士回应美国扩产传闻
SK Hynix says there is no conclusion yet; it already said this once in July.
▪️ Intel's first Ohio factory will be completed in 2030 and start production in 2031, originally planned for 2025
▪️ Indiana packaging plant about $4 billion, mass production only in the second half of 2029
▪️ Lutenik: For products not made in the US, tariffs can be as high as 100%
The disagreement is not about whether to go to the US, but that the delivery schedule and the schedule when it is needed differ by five years. The factory will be ready in 2030, but the shortage is now—Apple has already downgraded its 2026 hardware shipment plan, and the top Mac Studio model has to wait 16 to 18 weeks.
The market only gave one day: on that day, Korean stocks rose 4.08%, ADRs rose 3% pre-market but closed flat at 174.87, and turned negative the next morning. Choi Tae-won said in July, "We need to build a factory in the US"—two months later, the company only denied "acquisition."
Seoul is also demanding something—urging it to build four new factories in the southwest, and using this US investment to negotiate the undistributed 200 billion won out of the 350 billion won Korea-US commitment. The same capital expenditure, two governments competing.
In July, the rumor was acquisition; in September, it was lease or joint venture, talking about the same factory site. This trip to the US, are you betting it’s for capacity or for tariff exemption?Looks like I’m about to become the last one standing in the short camp. $ZEC and $ETH really decided to teach me a lesson today. 💀 I honestly shouldn’t have opened that short. I focused too much on the negative headlines and forgot one important thing: Sometimes the market sells the rumor, then buys the news. 📈 The bad news was already expected, cautious money waited on the sidelines, and once the event actually happened, buyers finally stepped in. $BTC, $ETH, $ZEC — you three really chose vio$PONS lands on OKX Spot, how much longer can the token factory on Robinhood Chain run wild?
Today $PONS (Pons Family) officially launched on OKX Spot, currently fluctuating around $0.58 - $0.64. As a pure money-making project, no hype or bashing, let's talk about the underlying logic:
A terrifying money-sucking printing machine: Pons, as a third-party permissionless Launchpad on Robinhood Chain, once set a single-day fee record exceeding $11 million, issuing nearly 25,000 tokens in one day. This "continuous commission from subsequent token trading" profit model is the core supporting its fundamentals.
Chips and capital: Previously, Uniswap Labs reportedly made strategic positions, and with today's liquidity injection on OKX Spot, if after a short-term shakeout it can break through the strong resistance at $0.64 with volume,
it is likely to start a new major upward wave.
Risks to watch: Retail investors on Robinhood Chain are highly speculative, most tokens issued there have very short lifespans, heavily relying on the continued hype of the parent chain. #Will long-term US Treasury yields at 5% become the new normal?
My view: 5% will gradually shift from an "abnormally high level" to a new important interest rate center, but it doesn't necessarily mean that 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries will permanently stabilize above 5%.
As of September 16, the 30-year Treasury yield is about 5.35%, and the 10-year is about 5.00%; the 30-year has been above 5% for a continuous period. 
More importantly, the driving force behind this is no longer simply "Fed rate hikes."
Currently, three forces are simultaneously pushing up the long end:
1. Fiscal deficit and debt supply
The US government needs to continuously issue a large amount of long-term government bonds, and the market demands a higher term premium to absorb this supply. The recent long-end sell-off in the global bond market is itself related to fiscal and inflation concerns. 
2. Inflation center may be higher than before
Oil prices, tariffs, and energy supply risks may make it harder for inflation to quickly return to 2%. The Fed has just raised rates by 25bp again and signaled the possibility of another hike within the year. 
3. The market is starting to demand higher real yields
The 10-year yield returning to 5% is not entirely a bet on runaway inflation; it also includes a repricing of future policy paths, fiscal supply, and long-term risks. 
So I tend to interpret it as:
The era of "ultra-low interest rates" over the past decade or so has ended.
In the coming years, the reasonable operating range for the US 10-year Treasury yield may be overall much higher than the low-rate era before and after the pandemic.
But to say "5% is the permanent new normal" is a conclusion we cannot draw yet.
The three variables that truly determine whether 5% can hold long-term are:
Whether inflation can return to around 2%
• Whether the US fiscal deficit can converge
• Whether the Fed can eventually re-enter a rate-cutting cycle.
If inflation falls, oil prices retreat, and fiscal pressure eases, the 10-year yield returning to 4% or even lower is entirely possible.
But if:
Fiscal deficit continues to expand + debt supply keeps increasing + inflation remains around 3% long-term,
then 10-year yields at 5% may really shift from a "pressure level" to a new normal interest rate center.
This is especially important for BTC
This is why I am now paying special attention to US Treasuries, not just whether the Fed hikes rates.
10-year at 5% → global risk-free rate repricing → stock valuations under pressure → rising capital costs for crypto assets.
Especially with the BTC spot ETF seeing continuous outflows as you mentioned earlier, if combined with long-term US Treasury yields staying above 5%, then BTC will need to bear higher capital costs to sustain a prolonged bull market.
Conversely, if in the future we see:
10-year yield moving from 5% → 4.7% → 4.5%
and ETFs see sustained net inflows again, this could become a very important macro signal for BTC's next rally.
In short: the real danger is not a temporary break above 5% in Treasury yields, but the market starting to accept "that for many years to come, the US long-term cost of capital will remain around 5%." $BTC Sharing with everyone the $UNI short stop-loss order I placed last night.
The first chart is a 4-hour chart. We can simply see that if shorting, there is a lot of room below, so I am biased short on $UNI.
The 15-minute chart, as shown in the second chart, shows the price consolidating near the trendline, which caught my attention.
Around 10 PM last night, the price broke below the lower boundary of the range, and I immediately took a position.
Then the price continued to fall, so I added to my position, keeping the overall position around 6.18 with a stop loss near 6.4.
Let me explain my trading logic:
1) This trade is a trend reversal trade breaking the major cycle trendline; entering after breaking the consolidation range is to confirm the downward direction;
2) Since this is a trend reversal trade, I set the stop loss at 6.4, where the price would retake the trendline and break the first high.
These two logics are correct, and the stop loss is appropriate.
However, there are several obvious shortcomings:
1) I pointed out yesterday that $BTC might still continue to rise, so shorting altcoins was risky, but I shorted anyway;
2) I added to my position three times in total, but the stop loss was always set at 6.4, which exposed me to too much risk without resetting the stop loss for each addition;
3) The time between each add-on was very short, which is a frequent mistake of mine. Each add-on should be after confirming the price has strengthened the trend direction, but I simply added on the momentum.
Reflection leads to progress, and I have already noted these key points.Ethereum’s value story comes from a different mix: network activity, fees, staking demand, and capital/product flows. If those catalysts remain weak while $BTC continues holding its structure, ETH can remain under pressure and trail Bitcoin for an extended period. That relative weakness is worth watching. 👀 Don’t buy ETH simply because the price looks lower than before. Track the fundamentals. Watch ETH/BTC. Wait for demand to actually return. A lower price alone isn’t a catalyst. 📊 #ETH #Ethe$ROBO SNAPS BACK OFF SUPPORT
Watched $ROBO dip to 0.00779 then reclaim 0.00827, up 1.10% today despite a 66% drop over 180 days. Sharp bounces after deep pullbacks test discipline more than luck. Do you trust a reversal this fast, or wait for confirmation before reacting?
#CLARITYActPathForward The new public chain's meme coins look lively, each with a stronger background than the last, but their actual performance is mediocre. Especially those where the official team personally launches the tokens, controlling the supply and information themselves—retail investors basically end up footing the bill. If you haven't earned alpha from the old chains, don't rush to give it away on the new ones. 🤔BTC's strategy is clear: ride the waves, hold the base position, profits and losses are naturally a tug of war
Looking at the two positions together, you can immediately understand this trading logic.
Current position: BTC 4.5x full long, opened at 76280, current price 76442, slight floating profit of 0.95%, maintaining a very high margin ratio, with a thick safety buffer.
Historical records are even more interesting:
A large previous long position was opened at a high of 79673, eventually closed with a loss of 10.85 BTC; a small short position in the middle was stopped out; but at the same time, a long position was caught, gaining +24.09 BTC, a return of 74.84%.
This strategy is straightforward: hold a long base position for the long term, and intersperse wave trading in between.
Knowing the big picture is bullish, but the market won't rise in a straight line.
Take advantage of opportunities to capture big profits from rallies, and accept losses when reversals occur at highs. Not every trade wins, but rely on high-win-rate big waves to cover the drawdowns caused by losing trades.
Currently, 4.5x leverage is not extremely high, margin ratio is sufficient, and there is no urgent risk of liquidation.
The current phase is a consolidation and recovery stage after the interest rate hike.
Core idea remains:
✅ Base long position, betting on a rebound and recovery after macro bearish news is priced in.
Many only focus on floating profits and losses, envy the big 74.84% win, but overlook the loss from being trapped and forced to cut at a high.
Those who can hold onto big profits must also bear the stop-loss cost of misreading the market.
Trading is not about winning every trade, but that the profits from winning trades exceed the losses from losing trades.$ZEC The Fed's rate hike has landed, yet ZEC keeps rising fiercely, what's going on?
Brothers, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at midnight, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00%, but the market did not experience the expected big plunge. The reason is simple: this rate hike was basically anticipated, and after the news landed, the negative sentiment turned into a relief.
Looking at ZEC, after lingering at a low level for so long, it clearly started to gain momentum at midnight, surging up to around 1396, then it didn't crash back immediately but digested the gains sideways at a high level.
This is something I pay close attention to. The short-term moving averages still point upward, and the price hasn't fallen back to key levels, so the bulls haven't shown obvious signs of retreat yet.
Simply put: the news is bearish, but ZEC doesn't fall; instead, it rises. This reflects the market's attitude.
However, the resistance at the previous high of 1396 is right there, chasing directly could easily fuel the market makers.
My approach is still to wait for a pullback, consider going long after the price stabilizes at the 1368 support.
Target the previous high at 1396, stop loss near 1340.
Don't fear the rise; fear chasing at the peak in excitement. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 CORE large-scale release has not triggered panic selling for a long time—is it market support or another scheme?
Many KOLs on foreign platforms have been closely watching CORE's large unlocks. Logically, with such a huge release volume, the price should have smashed through all psychological levels by now, but the market keeps grinding at the bottom without any destructive selling pressure. The US stock market crashed down 631 points, yet Bitcoin stubbornly holds at 76,000! What's going on with this unusual scene?
Just saw the US stock market closing data: the Dow plunged 631 points, the S&P dropped 0.45%, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5%, and the dollar strengthened. Normally, such a massive pullback would drag all risk assets down. But a quick glance at Bitcoin shows it’s still stubbornly holding near 76,000.
This time the Federal Reserve not only raised rates by 25 basis points, but the dot plot is extremely hawkish. Out of 18 officials, 16 are calling for more hikes within the year. This is not just a "correction"; it’s clearly telling everyone: as long as inflation isn’t under control, high interest rates will remain looming.
Many are still fantasizing that "once rate hikes end, the bad news is over." Wake up. What’s really suppressing the market now is no longer the policy rate, but the risk-free yield. Folks, you can get nearly 5% just by holding US Treasuries risk-free—who would want to play high-risk altcoins in crypto? Capital has eyes.
So why didn’t Bitcoin dive with the US stocks? My understanding is that this 25 basis point hike has long been priced in; what capital is really waiting for is when the next hike will land. The current resilience doesn’t mean strength—it’s likely just that the pressure hasn’t fully transmitted yet.
Don’t blindly bet on "the bad news being fully priced in." If US Treasury yields keep rising and the dollar keeps strengthening, Bitcoin’s current resilience can be broken by a catch-down drop at any time. $BTC $ETH When everyone cheers at that 5.92% bullish candle, the grandmaster is watching the pawn formation—$ETC's pawn formation is already locked, and locked in a grid extremely unfavorable to the bulls.
A 5.92% rise in 24 hours, short-term RSI hitting 65.6, crossing the critical line of 64; but the long-term RSI only stops at 51.1, without a clear advantage even over市场最怕的不是利空，是没落地的利空。这周刚好相反，两个悬着的利空都落地了，价格却没崩，这本身就是一条信息。
法案这条先说，它没通过，对币圈当然是利空。但落地之后行情没走出大幅下跌，而且它后续还能再提交，这次不通过不是终局，我判断影响有限。
加息这条也一样。美联储时隔三年加息25个基点，符合预期。符合预期意味着什么？没加息才会直接涨，加超预期才会直接跌，刚好符合预期，通常就是没什么大动静，之后反而容易走一段修复。过往一整轮加息周期都是这个规律：决议出来当时没波动，方向都是之后才走出来的，因为预期早就被消化了。
两个利空都砸不动，能说明两件事。一是消息面上的空头能量释放得差不多了；二是下方的承接比想象中厚。
再看幅度。从高点下来整体8%到9%，不到一成，这个空间我按良性结构调整看，不构成趋势转向。
结构上要盯的是7万6。前低一度跌破又收了回来，收回来了我就按假突破处理。这类走法在调整段里很常见，破一下、收回，把不坚定的筹码洗掉，然后才真正选方向。上方短期压力79500到8万，过去反弹在这儿遇阻，下跌途中在这儿插针，这次反弹也在这儿压回来，同一道墙被验证了三次。
清算The rebound is real, but don't mistake a “dovish rate hike” for the “start of a bull market”
After the Fed's rate hike, the crypto market rebounded. The core logic is “bad news fully priced in + expectations of the rate hike cycle peaking.” The dot plot shows only one rate hike left this year, and the bond market has already started pricing in future easing.
However, Bitcoin's intraday gain of less than 1% suggests this rebound may be limited in strength. The surge in Zcash is an isolated event—backing from Paradigm plus a reassessment of the privacy narrative, rather than a signal of systemic strength across the entire market.
For investors, the current focus should be: whether the Fed truly has “only one rate hike left”; whether the CPI data to be released in October will break the expectation of “rate hike peak”; and whether Bitcoin can hold above $76,000 instead of falling back to test support again.
The rebound on the rate hike night is a celebration of “certainty” by the market—not a celebration of the rate hike itself, but a celebration that the end of rate hikes is finally in sight. Whether the path after the end is smooth or a cliff still requires more data to answer.September 17
Gold Midday
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
1. Federal Reserve policy decision finalized, hawkish tone dominates the market
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp overnight, with the decision passed unanimously. The dot plot suggests the possibility of one more rate hike this year. Powell emphasized inflation resilience and rejected premature rate cuts. Following the news, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields rose, suppressing gold prices. Overnight gold experienced a significant rollercoaster, surging then quickly plunging, hitting a low near 4235.
2. Middle East geopolitical situation
Shipping risks in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz persist, with localized frictions ongoing. However, the current market priority is the Federal Reserve's rate expectations, limiting the strength of geopolitical safe-haven buying; only a large-scale escalation of conflict would make safe-haven demand dominate the market. Crude oil prices retreated, marginally easing inflation concerns and slightly relieving pressure on gold, but not enough to reverse the overall weak trend.
Technical Analysis
4-hour chart: Bollinger Bands opening downward, overall downtrend channel intact; slight rebound at midday, bullish candle body weak, representing a weak recovery within the downtrend channel. MACD below zero line, red bars weak, rebound momentum limited; KDJ repeatedly crossing at low levels, intense bulls vs bears battle, oscillating repeatedly.
Strategy: Short near 4310-4330, stop loss at 4352, target 4260-4230
Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, trade cautiously
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $XAU Long-term US Treasury yields held at 5%, which of these three small coins is swimming naked?
#WillLongTermUSTreasury5PercentBecomeTheNewNormal?
At noon, with long-term US Treasury yields held at 5%, let's talk one by one about which small coins are swimming naked.
$HYPE 79.66, the former star repaying debt has dropped from 89.65, 97% of income is used for buybacks but income has declined for four consecutive quarters, 77.5 is the critical point. With long-term yields at 5%, high-beta small coins like this suffer the most, but the heavy drop is supported by real income, making it more resistant than pure air coins.
$ASTER 0.696, a decentralized perpetual contract DEX, market cap 1.89 billion ranked 45th, long-term 5% yields cause high volatility, retail investors panic and open contracts, it collects fees, the more chaos the more it earns.
$BICO 2 cents, focused on account abstraction, the sector is not bad but lacks funding support, it falls more with long-term 5% yields, the narrative hasn't arrived yet, need to wait for spillover from the leader, don't force it.
With long-term yields at 5%, HYPE has a bottom, ASTER benefits from volatility, avoid BICO, watch small positions at noon.With $ETH trading around $2,550, I’m watching the $2,450–$2,500 area closely as a potential accumulation zone. Ethereum has faced plenty of selling pressure recently, but the bigger picture still has several factors worth monitoring — ETF flows, network activity, Bitcoin’s direction, and overall market liquidity. I’m continuing to build my spot $ETH position gradually rather than trying to predict the exact bottom. Key levels on my radar: 📍 $2,450–$2,500: support/accumulation zone 📍 $2,650: fiWhen a coin doubles in price, my first reaction isn’t envy, it’s that someone else is going to lose sleep again.
Lookonchain just uncovered that an address took a 4x leveraged long position on 3.25 million SYN, with a principal of 588,000, currently floating a profit of 304,000, a return rate of 207%.
SYN rose just over 100% today.
Simply put, someone positioned their chips early, and when the market moves, the numbers speak for themselves.
Outsiders see it as "Wow, made a killing."
Insiders see: 4x leverage, if the direction reverses, that 300,000 instantly turns negative.
I’m not jealous of the money, I’m jealous of the courage to make a move at this position.
Now the question is, who is this kind of return screenshot meant for?
Definitely not for someone like me who realizes it too late.
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $BTC ⚠️ BTC stands at 76,378! How much higher can it surge after confirming the double bottom at 75,064?
📊 Market Snapshot
BTC current price 76,378｜4H range 75,064–76,560｜volatility 1.99%
ETH current price 2,421｜4H range 2,369–2,430｜volatility 2.58%
1️⃣ Wyckoff Perspective
BTC completed a Spring action at 75,064, with a high-volume long lower shadow clearing floating positions, followed by continuous rebound, currently in the early Mark-up phase. If it breaks above the previous high of 76,560, it will confirm entry into an accelerated uptrend. ETH also completed a Spring at 2,369, but the rebound strength is weaker than BTC, with funds clearly favoring BTC.
2️⃣ 2B Rule Judgment
BTC 4H level: after breaking below the previous low of 75,350 at 75,064, it quickly recovered, forming a classic 2B bottom structure, currently standing above 75,788 with a retest confirmation. ETH similarly broke below 2,378 at 2,369 and recovered, establishing a 2B bottom, but there is resistance around 2,422 that requires a volume breakout to open up space.#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？
The procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed to pass, falling short of the 60-vote threshold. The bill cannot proceed to formal debate and review for now, but this does not mean the bill is completely dead; it just significantly reduces the probability of it being enacted by 2026.
Three potential paths forward:
1. Short-term restart and reconsideration (very low probability)
Technically, a motion to reconsider can still be submitted, but with Congress recessing in early October, there is very little time left and a large number of bipartisan votes must be secured. The partisan divide remains huge, with almost zero support from Democrats, making it very difficult to reach 60 votes in a short time. The practical obstacles are enormous.
2. Lame-duck session after the midterm elections (small probability)
After the midterm elections in November, there will be a brief lame-duck session. If the election results ease tensions and both parties are willing to renegotiate and amend the text, there is a last-minute chance to pass it. However, Congress will prioritize handling fiscal appropriations and other urgent matters, leaving very limited time for crypto legislation.
3. Starting over with the new Congress in 2027 (highest probability)
If all the above windows are missed, the new Congress will convene next year, and the bill will need to be resubmitted and go through committees again, essentially restarting the entire process. At that time, changes in congressional seats could completely rewrite the bill’s fate.
The bill’s setback means that unified federal crypto regulation in the U.S. will continue to be delayed, and the market will return to a regulatory vacuum. This will suppress risk appetite in the short term, but it should not be seen as a trigger for a one-sided major decline. The "Achilles' heel" of the rebound: Bitcoin's gains are unconvincing
Although market sentiment has clearly warmed, there are also warning signals hidden in the data.
Bitcoin has risen above $76,000, but the intraday gain is less than 1%. Against the backdrop of "interest rate hikes landing + risk appetite recovery," this gain appears weak. In contrast, Solana rose nearly 3%, BNB and HYPE rose over 2%, and ZEC surged 23%—Bitcoin's rebound strength is clearly lagging behind altcoins.
This divergence indicates that funds are seeking "higher elasticity" outlets. As the largest asset by market cap, Bitcoin's rise requires stronger incremental capital; assets like Zcash and Solana, driven by localized catalysts, are more prone to pulse-like rallies.
Another detail worth noting: this rate hike is the first since 2023, rather than the rate cut previously expected by the market. This means the macro environment facing the crypto market has shifted from "rate cut expectations" to "end of the rate hike cycle." Whether this shift has been fully priced in remains uncertain. Jeff Ko's judgment that it has been "digested" needs to be verified by data in the coming weeks.🔥Dividends are here, but short sellers actually have to pay?
MEXC KO and other stock futures dividend settlement rules:
Long positions receive adjustment payments, short positions need to pay, recorded as special funding fees.
Principle: Stock price drops due to ex-dividend, shorts show unrealized gains on paper, but this part comes from dividends, not short selling profits, requiring a funding adjustment hedge.
Many blindly open long/short positions when seeing dividends, overlooking this cost, which can easily cause pitfalls.
⚠️No trading fee ≠ no dividend adjustment fee; leverage will directly affect margin.
This implicit rule in derivatives is the easiest way for people to lose money unknowingly.
Have you previously overlooked contract ex-dividend related rules?
Market observation, not investment advice.🚨 $TRUMP The most dangerous thing now isn't that it has fallen, but that no one is taking it.
The 24-hour liquidation was only about $480,000, including 420,000 long trades, 63,000 short trades, and the largest single order only 24,000 dollars. Globally, only 283 people were liquidated.
What does this indicate?
It's not that the market is frantically trampling, but that leveraged funds are slowly withdrawing.
TRUMP has retreated from $3.68 to $1.97, and the previously exaggerated 7000% increase has narrowed to around 2000%. The 24-hour volatility is still 5.66%, but the turnover is less than $100 million.
The narrative remains, but the funding is no longer as hot as before.
What the market is truly waiting for now is actually the CLARITY Act.
If it passes, sentiment may be reignited; Without new catalysts, TRUMP is more likely to continue falling into a battle of existing funds.
Moreover, when transactions thin, the market becomes very "fragile": a single large order can push prices up or suddenly crash down.
So I won't easily treat this rebound under low trading volume as a trend reversal.
📌 I will focus on two signals: trading volume returning above $100 million; long and short liquidations returning to equilibrium.
Before these two signals appear, controlling your position is more important than chasing gains or selling lows.
#DailyOrbit Saudi Arabia's "capacity to resume production in a few days" triggered a 4% plunge in oil prices, but the full repair of the 1,200-kilometer pipeline will take six weeks, indicating the market reaction was overblown. Meanwhile, a secret meeting between the US and Oman reached an understanding, with the Houthis exempting US vessels but specifically targeting Saudi ships, aiming to drive a wedge between the US-Saudi alliance.
Analysis suggests that the above news is all smoke and mirrors. The oil price drop is intended to intimidate retail investors; if inflation expectations ease in the short term, it will benefit risk assets (Bitcoin fluctuating around 75,000). There is a need to be highly vigilant about a potential V-shaped reversal in oil prices caused by either slower-than-expected Saudi pipeline repairs or Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels.HIDDEN BTC — SEP 17
₿THE $72K–$85K BTC RANGE MATTERS
One of the less-discussed signals right now is Bitcoin’s options positioning.
📉Max pain:~$72K
📈Call concentration:~$85K
💰Sept. 25 expiry:~$14.2B OI
Glassnode says options shifted toward downside protection after the recent market shock.
This doesn’tLast night, the Fed raised interest rates by 25bp as expected, but the real negative factor is not this 25bp hike, rather the dot plot: 16 out of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year. BTC is currently holding around $75.8K, not continuing to collapse after the hawkish Fed; meanwhile, Brent has fallen back from over $108 to $105.83. My judgment is: BTC has entered a phase where "regulatory negatives have basically