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Revolut submitted passport selfies: fake government emails passed verification
This time, Revolut's system wasn't hacked. They said: someone used emails sent from "real government agency domains" to request customer information, and the emails had legitimate domain authentication, so the compliance side treated it as an official request and processed it.
What was handed over wasn't just names and phone numbers — copies of passports or driver's licenses, account holder selfies, bank statements, IBANs, withdrawal records, and even Bitcoin transaction histories might have been included. The system wasn't breached, and customer funds accounts reportedly remained untouched; what was compromised was the KYC layer.
The explosion happened only after ZachXBT shared screenshots of the affected emails. Don't automatically assume "received compliance notification" means an official process — real domain names can also be used to trick you.The FOMC results will be announced tonight at 2 AM Eastern Time. A 25 basis point rate hike to 3.75%–4.00% is almost fully priced in (FedWatch about 90%), but the real uncertainty lies in the dot plot and Chairman Warsh's press conference tone.
Robin Brooks from Brookings put it bluntly: the market has priced in more rate hikes this year, which Warsh is unlikely to fully deliver on, so the press conference will probably disappoint the market—dollar may weaken, while long-term US Treasury yields might actually rise. He usually avoids forward guidance, making his tone even harder to align with market expectations.
The key difference: if yields rise due to "inflation/credibility concerns" rather than "economic overheating optimism," the logic suppressing non-yielding assets changes. According to CoinDesk's analysis, after a brief risk sell-off, BTC and gold may not follow the traditional bearish script.
The CLARITY procedural vote is deadlocked; tonight only the Fed battle remains. BTC is currently about 75,900, ETH about 2400. Results are not out yet, do not #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 $BTC $ETH Write as if the rate hike has already happened. At 2:00 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced. Will it be a waterfall drop, or has the expectation already been fully priced in?
The probability of a rate hike is over 90%, and US Treasury yields have broken 5%. But honestly, whether they hike or not is no longer the main point. The real focus is on the dot plot—Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank both expect a hawkish bias, possibly indicating two more hikes this year. But what can truly crush the market is not the 25 basis points, but the 10-year Treasury yield breaking 5% and oil prices rising above $100—if these two blades fall simultaneously.
$BTC has already dropped to around 75,000, and with the "Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act" rejected by the Senate, the regulatory vacuum will last at least until next year. The rate hike announcement is just the beginning; the tone of the Fed Chair's press conference is the key to determining the direction.
On the chart, the 4-hour timeframe continues downward, MACD lines pointing down, bearish momentum not yet fully released, with a low touching 74,900. At this decision point, my approach is to short on rebounds under pressure but not to chase shorts. With the rate hike and hawkish stance, the market will continue to probe lower; if dovish signals are released, there will be short-term corrective rebounds.
For the cautious, keep your hands off tonight and wait for the news to settle before acting.
Trading suggestions:
BTC short lightly on rebounds between 76,800-77,900, can add on further rebounds, targets at 75,000-73,000-71,500-70,000
ETH short lightly on rebounds between 2,455-2,535, can add on further rebounds, targets at 2,495-2,360-2,270
This is just a reference. Reminder again: control your hands, and if you can't, control your position size.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $ETH 【 USDC is not just a US dollar stablecoin; Circle is building its own financial infrastructure 】
With the launch of the Arc mainnet, USDC surpassed 370 million tokens within two hours. Behind this data, what deserves attention is not the short-term influx of funds, but that Circle is attempting to transform USDC into a broader financial infrastructure.
Arc uses USDC as Gas, targeting payments, settlements, and on-chain financial applications. In the future, if more institutions, trading platforms, and financial protocols join, USDC's use cases could extend from digital asset trading further into real-world financial services.
Robinhood Chain has shown the market the potential of on-chain finance, while Arc represents an important step for Circle to actively participate in this infrastructure competition.
For $CRCL, the future growth logic may no longer be limited to stablecoin issuance and reserve income but also include potential commercial revenue brought by the development of the Arc ecosystem.
If Arc can continuously attract real users and financial business, Circle's story may just be beginning. $BTC $ETH $SOL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 Originally wanted to cut losses as a sacrifice, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the meat cooked itself. Last night at dawn, I was watching $XRP surge, but the volume didn't keep up, and the resistance above was clear, so I directly signaled a bearish outlook and entered a short position.
During the consolidation at the bottom, there was still some back and forth. Someone asked if they should exit, and I said the support was insufficient, the rebound was weak, so don't panic. Later it dropped from 1.3688 all the way down to 1.2861, with a return of +603.44%. This cut was satisfying.
First, I closed 80%, pocketing the main profit; the remaining 20% is protected at cost price. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don't give the profit back. The market is waited out, and profits are held onto.
Risk control is done upfront, that's called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action. For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and I will notify you immediately.
$BTC $DOGE ETH's spike to 2449 today failed to break through, and no one dares to follow the wave at 2667 anymore.
Yesterday's low was 2389, the high touched 2615, and it closed at 2425. Today it opened near 2425, the highest was 2449 but didn't pass, the lowest was 2358, and the current price is about 2407. Volume is still there, and selling continues in this downward segment.
The resistance is still between 2449 and 2615 above, and only above that is 2667. If 2358 below breaks again, it's easy to first see the space after 2406 is lost; if this area can't hold either, the short term will look for even lower levels.
In the short term, first watch if the current price around 2407 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as still digesting the drop from 2667, don't chase the current price. Those already holding should watch if today's low at 2358 can hold; if it can't, reduce some; those wanting to catch a dip should wait and reconsider if the rebound can't pass 2449, don't catch a falling knife in mid-air. $ETH When a rate hike becomes a foregone conclusion, the real focus of tonight's Federal Reserve decision should be on these three things
1. Dot Plot: Do the members actually believe "there will be another hike within the year"
Along with the interest rate decision, the Fed will release the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot. The dot plot is not a voting result but an anonymous forecast by each participating official on the future path of interest rates—it answers not "Will there be a hike today?" but "Is this rate hike a one-time move or the start of a cycle?"
(A detail worth noting: the dots correspond to the expectations of all participants, including Board members and all regional Fed presidents, while only 12 have voting rights at that meeting. When looking at the dot plot, the median is more important than any single dot.)
Focus on two things: whether the median moves up within the year, and how large the divergence is. If the median suggests another hike within the year, the nature completely changes.
2. Waller's Statement: Is it "a precautionary move" or "just the beginning"
The dot plot is numbers; Waller's press conference is wording—and market pricing is often determined by wording.
Pay attention to how he characterizes this hike:
- If the wording is close to "a preventive one-time adjustment" or "data is still on an improving track," it is a hawkish action with dovish language, and the market will breathe a sigh of relief;
- If he repeatedly emphasizes "inflation has not substantially improved" and "we still have work to do" (which is exactly his logic at Jackson Hole), then it clearly tells the market: this is not the end$EDGE Some orders are just like this: the more you watch them, the more they stall; the moment you turn away, they move.
During repeated fluctuations in the session, the selling pressure on EDGE gradually increases, with insufficient support, and each rebound is weaker than the last. My only advice: don't chase longs, wait for confirmation on shorts.
Shorted from 0.6584 to 0.6034, +167.07% already secured, feeling good brothers.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection. Take profits when you should, don't let gains turn uncomfortable.
Don't let profits inflate, don't despair on pullbacks. For those who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, wait for the next signal before moving.
$ETH $SOL Single Coin Contract Fluctuation
$USELESS price is relatively weak, with balanced active transactions: in 3 sets of 5-minute statistics, active buying accounts for 44.1%, active selling accounts for 55.9%; the 15-minute K-line of this root fell by 3.12%; open interest decreased by 1.69%, open interest value changed by -4.78%, indicating a real contraction in open interest, with quantity and value changes moving in the same direction. The price shows a decline, active transactions do not show a clear one-sided bias, and the current weakness is mainly reflected in the price performance.Whether 75,000 holds is more important than the bill itself
When I first entered the circle, I thought the bill vote was everything.
Now I understand, the vote is just the appetizer.
Key rule: If 60 votes don’t pass, the legislation is directly blocked.
$BTC once dropped near 75,000, this is the first hurdle.
Trigger condition: Tonight the Fed continues to reveal its stance, two shocks in two days.
Regulation and interest rates hit together.
Looking back, the real life-or-death is not the bill.
If 75,000 holds, it means panic selling can’t push it down anymore.
If it doesn’t hold and volume increases, look for support lower down.
$ETH targets 2400, $SOL targets 100.
I’m not in a hurry to be bearish, waiting for a signal.
If hawkish speeches can’t break through 75,000 and it slowly recovers, then the negative news is likely priced in early.
Don’t guess tonight, watch this number first.
If it holds, I’ll endure one more night.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 #BTC财库优先股融资升温 $BTC $ETH $BTC $ETH $SOL | THE MARKET IS REPRICING
$BTC ~75.9K
$ETH ~2.4K
$SOL ~97
One correction, two major variables:
CLARITY → regulatory uncertainty remains unresolved.
FOMC → liquidity expectations remain volatile.
After the sell-off, I am not rushing to catch the bottom. What matters now is whether capital is returning or we are only seeing a technical rebound.
BTC needs to reclaim structure, ETH needs stronger flows, while SOL needs volume and sustained demand.
Which one will signal recovery first?(Second Cake) $ETH My take:
Let's put this in plain language.
The 2408 line is the most important right now. It used to support from below, but now that it's broken, it has become a cap above. As long as the cap isn't lifted, any rebound should be treated as weak, not a strong bounce.
If you want to look toward 2460, you have to first hold 2408 firmly, or have a clear volume increase to push past 2415. If it can't hold, don't rush to look upward.
How to go long: volume increases, price breaks above 2415 from the right side, then enter. The target is around 2445 to 2490. Note, the hourly chart must also hold above 2415 for it to count as a valid breakout.
How to go short: volume increases, price breaks below 2390 from the right side, then short. The target is around 2360 to 2325. If the 4-hour chart breaks below 2390, follow this direction.
Structurally simpler: if 2408 can't hold, it will likely return to around 2360 to find a double bottom. If 2360 holds and a true double bottom forms, the rebound will have some strength. If 2408 keeps pressing down and can't rise, watch the 2280 area (Fibonacci 1.618) first; don't just stand there if it breaks through.
Looking at the 4-hour chart: the flag pattern has already broken. Until it recovers, the risk of a breakdown remains. The first target for the breakdown is 2308. If 2308 breaks again, this 4-hour rally is considered over; if it cools off completely, look further down to 2235.
One last hard rule: don't act without enough volume. Fake breakouts and fake breakdowns are the easiest to get hit by.#中东能源风险推高油价
For the same barrel of oil, Europeans are paying $122 today, while futures show $108.
▪️ Dated Brent 122 (LSEG) vs Brent futures 108 — a $14 difference, physical and paper markets diverge
▪️ Saudi East-West pipeline shut down on 9/11, Yanbu port halted loading, European shipments canceled
▪️ Diesel prices in Europe and the US hit $220/barrel, double the crude price; US retail diesel also hits record highs
The real bill is in the CBO report on 9/15: as of 8/1, the Department of Defense spent $38 billion, adding $2–3 billion monthly. But base repairs and long-term veterans' healthcare are not included; half to two-thirds of interceptor missiles are used up, reconstruction will take at least 5 years.
The disagreement isn’t whether the three channels combined will push oil prices higher; this war’s costs are in three ledgers, only the first is recorded by the Department of Defense. The third ledger is written by the CBO: in 2027 Q1, PCE inflation will be 0.5 percentage points higher than pre-war levels, pushing up US Treasury yields — the bill is paid by bondholders.
Regarding BTC: $77,000, down 41.7% from the peak, still about 10% below the ETF cost line. What’s weighing it down isn’t the Strait of Hormuz, but extended inflation. Brent crude needs to fall below 95 to ease.
Who should be charged for this bill, the Department of Defense or the bondholders?Today $PONS appeared on spot trading, but it couldn't save the disastrous failure of the "left foot stepping on right foot spiral takeoff."
After peaking at 0.7075, it crashed waterfall-style down to 0.5715,
now around 0.5962
24-hour drop of -8.19%
1-hour net capital inflow of 280,000 PONS
Medium and small orders are frantically bottom-fishing,
while very large and large orders are resolutely selling.
Plus, big players reduced positions with 3x leverage according to the news, the truth is harsh:
Retail investors are desperately stepping on the right foot, while whales are quietly pulling the ladder. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
How to play after buybacks reach a certain level?
It's simple, don't be fooled by the "spot listing" and "buyback" good news into catching a falling knife. Buybacks can only support the bottom, not reverse the trend. Keep a close eye on the 0.5715 lifeline; low-volume rebounds are all bull traps. Without sustained net inflows from large orders, it doesn't count as stabilization.#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, Will the Rate Hike Land?
Once the rate hike lands, the real show begins.
In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to raise rates by 25 basis points, with probabilities soaring to 87% to 92%. But don’t just focus on whether they hike or not; the wording from Walsh after the meeting will be the real market trigger.
Three scenarios, three paths
1. Hawkish rate hike (most likely): Raise by 25, and Walsh signals continued tightening with an upward revision of the dot plot. U.S. stocks pull back, the dollar strengthens, and BTC faces pressure, potentially dropping to 76,000 or even 72,000. Historical data shows that within three months after the first rate hike in a cycle, the S&P 500 usually faces pressure and short-term volatility intensifies.
2. Dovish rate hike: Raise rates but hint at a "one-time calibration," without committing to a follow-up path. The market interprets this as bad news fully priced in, risk assets rebound, and BTC is expected to challenge above 80,000 again. UBS reviewed 16 rate hike cycles since 1954, showing the S&P 500 on average rose 10.8% in the 12 months following the first hike.
3. No change (very unlikely): If this happens, the market will experience severe volatility, the Fed’s credibility will be damaged, and it could trigger even greater panic.
It is recommended to take a light position and observe before the results come out, then act once Walsh’s speech becomes clear. If hawkish signals appear, wait for BTC to stabilize before considering going long; if dovish signals are confirmed, follow on the right side. Don’t bet on direction, let the market make the first move. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $XRP has been really strong lately.
ETF net inflow reached $11.2 million in a single day, and it's not a flash in the pan; funds have been continuously flowing in over the past half month.
This indicates one thing:
European and American funds are gradually moving towards XRP.
So when you look back at the price, why hasn't it dropped deeply, and why does someone always step in when funds arrive?
The answer is actually simple: the buying pressure has never stopped.
Now look at $HYPE.
ETF funds have clearly been flowing out continuously recently, so the price is naturally under pressure.
But I actually think we shouldn't write off HYPE just yet.
Because protocol revenue is still there, and the fundamentals haven't significantly deteriorated.
It now looks more like:
XRP wins on funding, HYPE loses on funding.
One has continuous capital inflow, so the price is strong.
The other has continuous capital outflow, so the price is weak.
But what HYPE really needs to watch out for is not the short-term price drop, but whether protocol revenue will start to decline later.
As long as revenue can hold steady, this correction is more about pressure on the capital side rather than a complete breakdown of the logic.S&P leads investment in Kaiko, setting up on-chain data standards. This is an easily overlooked but profoundly significant event.
Kaiko is a crypto market data provider, and S&P Global is a giant in traditional financial ratings and data. S&P leading the investment means traditional finance is taking on-chain data seriously and trying to establish industry standards. Why is this important? Because data is the infrastructure of finance. Whoever defines the data standards controls pricing power and discourse.
For the crypto industry, this is a key step from "wild growth" to "institutionalization." When giants like S&P start setting up on-chain data standards, it means crypto assets are being incorporated into traditional financial analysis frameworks. In the long term, this will bring more institutional capital and a more regulated market environment. Don’t just focus on prices; the improvement of infrastructure is the hallmark of industry maturity. #标普领投Kaiko，布局链上数据标准 $ETH $BTC $SOL · Weekly
Zoom out and the whole year fits inside one range. $149 at the top, $60 at the bottom.
Price is $97, sitting just under the level that decides the next leg.
🟢 Reclaim $104 and the measured move could point at $193
🔴 Lose $60 and $29 is what opens up
Spot ETFs hold $1.4B of SOL. The bid is there, the level isn't 👀
Not financial advice · #Solana #SOL #Crypto#AISafetyDebateEscalates The yield crisis has swept the globe. Except for China.
Yields in the US have risen to 2007 levels, the UK to 1998 levels, Germany and France to 2008 levels, and Japan to 1996 levels.
What about China? Borrowing costs are near historic lows. There are moves that initially look completely illogical on the chart. The price breaks through an obvious high. Everyone thinks: "Breakout. Let's go higher." But a few minutes later, the price is already below that level. And only then does the real move begin. What was that? Often the answer is liquidity. If many traders see the same high, it is logical to assume that orders accumulate around it. Someone has a stop from SHORT there. Someone is waiting for a breakout. Someone has already opened a position and set protection. So the obvious level may BTC is below 76K, ETH is around 2.4K, SOL is close to 100—these three numbers together are honester than any narrative: the trend hasn't been confirmed, and derivatives haven't given direction. Have you noticed? When prices move sideways, open interest is actually more worth watching? My recent observation is that the market isn't waiting for news, but for a "resonance." The CLARITY Act vote is hanging, short-term funds dare not heavily bet, but there is also no large-scale retreat. What kind of state is this? It's like everyone is at the table, but no one wants to reveal their cards first. It's not panic, but tired observation. From the derivatives structure perspective, it now feels more like a "divergence phase" of a trend—neither an start nor a distribution. The funding rate hasn't become extreme, indicating the bulls haven't overheated; But open interest has not shrunk significantly, and bears also lack overwhelming advantage. Both sides are probing, and neither is willing to admit defeat. The path to bullish bias is that once price, trading volume, and open interest all rise simultaneously, short covering becomes a catalyst. ETH and SOL may be more elastic than BTC because their derivative leverage is more concentrated and reacts more dramatically. The switch of the altcoin season is often hidden in this resonance. But the risks are also clear. If the CLARITY Act vote falls short of expectations or macro sentiment suddenly cools, this current "mild divergence" will quickly turn into a bullish squeeze. Before leverage is cleared, any bearish candlestick can trigger a chain reaction. SOL near the 100 level,BTC is holding at 75,000, who is quietly holding ARB and HYPE?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$BTC 75,700, continued to drift down during the day, just a step away from 75,000. Last night Waller pumped it up to 81,000 then dumped it back down. A 25bp rate hike tomorrow night is almost certain, with 30-year US bonds at 5.4% weighing it down, and spot ETFs still seeing outflows. If 75,000 breaks, look to 74,000; don't bottom-fish before the shoe drops.
$ARB 0.143, after rising 86% in a month, is taking a breather. It was pumped by Robinhood landing L2. Today, while BTC drifts down, ARB retraced but didn't break the previous low; there are buyers around 0.14. A low-volume steady hold is healthy, don't chase the highs.
$HYPE 79.66, the former star that fell from 89.65 while paying off debts. 97% of revenue is from buybacks but revenue has declined for four consecutive quarters; 77.5 is the critical support. Yesterday, while the AI sector crashed overseas, it bucked the trend and rose. Its decline is supported by real revenue, making it more resilient than pure hype.
BTC holds 75,000, ARB steadies, HYPE has a bottom; consider small positions before the shoe drops tomorrow night.$PONS This "spiral takeoff" has completely stalled. Looking at the 15-minute moving average, after peaking at 0.7075, the market fell like a waterfall, hitting a low of 0.5715, a 24-hour drop of -8.26%. This is a textbook "bull trap." Prices driven up by sentiment once buying can't keep up, a chain reaction of stampedes will occur. Looking at the flow of funds is even more painful: a net inflow of 286,300 PONS in one hour, seemingly strong buying. But breaking it down, it's all a scheme—medium orders (181,000 yuan) and small orders (123,100 yuan) are frantically bottom-fishing, while extra-large orders (40,300 yuan) and large orders (34,700 yuan) are aggressively selling. Combined with the news "Trader Loracle reduces leverage by 3x," the truth is harsh: retail investors are working hard to step on the right, while big players are quietly pulling ladders to distribute chips. As a new coin, without the support of a historic chip cluster, retail investors' buying is extremely fragile. Below 0.5715 is the final life-or-death line; once broken, it becomes an abyss. Coins that rise by relying on the fund scheme "left foot on the right foot" will eventually fall at gravitational acceleration. In this market, surviving long is more important than making quick profits! #本周FOMC揭晓, can rate hikes materialize? $BTC $ETH The whole market is now waiting for the news shock at midnight.
Brothers, the real big event tonight is not about whether to raise interest rates or not.
Because the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike has already reached 92.5%, this outcome has basically been priced in. $BTC
So if they really raise by 25bp tonight, it won't be that scary.
What the market really wants to hear is what Waugh says and how the dot plot is drawn.
Simply put:
After this hike, will there be more hikes?
If yes, how many more?
Is this a one-time move or the start of a new rate hike cycle?
This is what will truly decide the market direction tonight.
And there is an interesting background now. $ETH
Trump has been pressuring for lower rates, while Waugh's previous statements were relatively hawkish. The biggest market disagreement now is about the future direction of interest rates. Reuters also pointed out that investors are especially focused on whether Waugh's speech can provide clues about the subsequent tightening path.
So I actually think:
The biggest fear tonight is not a direct crash, nor a direct surge. $SOL
But—
Whipsaw!
First sweep out the shorts upward,
Then sweep out the longs downward,
Eat up liquidity on both sides,
And only then choose the real direction.
This kind of major data event often results in:
You think it’s a breakout, but it’s a bull trap;
You think it’s a breakdown, but it’s a bear trap.
So tonight, don’t chase longs just because you see the first big green candle, and don’t chase shorts just because you see the first big red candle.
Let it whipsaw first, let it sweep liquidity first.
After the first round of emotional release, then see if the price can truly hold key levels.
The 25bp hike has already been priced in by the market.
The real answer tonight lies in Waugh’s mouth and in the dot plot.
How the market moves is not important,
What’s important is not letting the market sweep away your positions first.
The real excitement of this midnight drama may not be the direction, but how it shakes people out.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 The whole market is now waiting for the news shock at midnight.
Brothers, the real big event tonight is not about whether to raise interest rates or not.
Because the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike has already reached 92.5%, this outcome has basically been priced in. $BTC
So if they really raise by 25bp tonight, it won't be that scary.
What the market really wants to hear is what Powell says and how the dot plot is drawn.
Simply put:
After this hike, will there be more hikes?
If yes, how many more?
Is this a one-time move or the start of a new rate hike cycle?
This is what will truly determine the market direction tonight.
And there is an interesting background now. $ETH
Trump has been pressuring for lower rates, while Powell's previous statements have been relatively hawkish. The biggest market disagreement now is about the future direction of interest rates. Reuters also pointed out that investors are especially focused on whether Powell's speech can provide clues about the path of future tightening.
So I actually think:
The biggest fear tonight is not a direct crash, nor a direct surge. $SOL
But rather—
Whipsaws!
First, sweep out the short positions upward,
Then sweep out the long positions downward,
Eat up liquidity on both sides,
And only then choose the real direction.
This kind of major data event often results in:
You think it’s a breakout, but it’s a bull trap;
You think it’s a breakdown, but it’s a bear trap.
So tonight, don’t chase longs just because you see the first big green candle, and don’t chase shorts just because you see the first big red candle.
Let it whipsaw first, let it sweep liquidity first.
After the first round of emotional release, then see if the price can truly hold key levels.
The 25bp hike has already been priced in by the market.
The real answer tonight lies in Powell’s mouth and in the dot plot.
How the market moves is not important,
What’s important is not letting the market sweep out your positions first.
The real excitement of this midnight event may not be the direction, but how it shakes people out.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 $XRP key support has been lost.
After breaking through the long-term consolidation range earlier, the price failed to hold the 1.33–1.55 zone and has now fallen back below the range.
The structure has changed:
Breakthrough → Failed to hold → Breakdown
Below, first watch the liquidity around 1.10, and deeper near 1.00.
If the bullish structure is to be repaired, the key is still 1.33: regaining and returning to the range would be more interesting.
Before that, the liquidity below is worth close attention. In the past decade, Bitcoin told its story through the "halving cycle."
In the next decade, Bitcoin will tell its story through the "fiat credit collapse."
And today,
The US 10-year Treasury yield has broken 5%, the last time was in 2007.
The Japanese 10-year government bond yield has broken 3%, the last time was in 1996.
The US and Japanese bond markets are handing the script directly to $BTC.
The question is: can you endure the darkest moment before dawn? Brothers, I just wrote a simple script myself to grab some recent market data on OKX, looked at real-time trades and depth, and I’m a bit itchy to share and discuss with everyone—can BTC really be bottomed out now? Where exactly might the bottom be?
First, a disclaimer: I’m just an ordinary retail trader messing around with code and watching the market. Everything below is purely my personal guess and absolutely not investment advice!
Left-side probing zone: If the market retests previous stage lows and the buy walls on OKX stop frequently canceling orders, with continuous "small orders steadily accumulating," you might consider lightly building a base position (like 10%-20%). But remember, this is just testing the waters, never go all in!
Strong support and leverage liquidation zone: The strong support below is often the starting point of the previous big move or a dense chip area. If the price quickly dips to this level, accompanied by a sudden surge in liquidation data, a spike in volume, and a very long lower wick on the short-term candle, this usually signals strong accumulation by institutions and major players. At this point, increasing your position to 40%-50% greatly improves your odds.
Right-side confirmation point: Wait for BTC to firmly reclaim key moving averages, with buy volume exceeding sell volume for several consecutive hours, and a breakout above the descending trendline before entering accordingly. Absolutely avoid high leverage! The market is very volatile now, and major players can easily manipulate the order book with API sweeps and fake spikes. Spot trading loses time but not money; contract bottom-fishing can teach you a harsh lesson in minutes.
Scale in! Scale in! Scale in! Important things said three times. $BTC $PUMP is now about survival, not valuation
$PUMP crypto concept stocks collectively crashed yesterday: Circle dropped over 11%, Coinbase over 10%, Bitmine over 8%, Strategy over 5%, Robinhood over 3%.
PUMP fell along with them, but its problem has long ceased to be about price. Trust in the token economy is eroding, token sale share dropped from 75% to 51%, the survival rate of newly launched meme coins in a single day is only 12%, seven-day retention is less than 3%, and market makers are exiting en masse. Today the entire market liquidated $670 million, with 115,000 people forcibly liquidated. In this environment, the meme sector is the first asset class to be abandoned because it has no cash flow or ecological value to support valuation.
Additionally, with a monthly unlocking pressure of 500 million tokens, the supply-demand relationship is inherently unfavorable. The 0.0032 support level was tested yesterday; if it breaks, the next level to watch is 0.0030. I have no position at this level and do not intend to take one. Wait for the unlocking pressure to clear and for the token economy data to stabilize; only then does discussing valuation make sense. Right now, it's about survival.$xCRCL's mainnet launched as scheduled, but the stock started to decline yesterday, so it seems my strategy to liquidate was correct:
1. Yesterday $CRCL dropped 11.41%, more than Coinbase's 10%, Bitmine's 8%, and Strategy's 5%. #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
2. The reason, besides the mainnet's positive launch, also involves issues with the Clarity Act. The hardest hit was precisely CRCL, which "benefits the most from US compliance dividends."
3. Worth keeping an eye on is $ARC, with a market pre-sale valuation of about 3 billion USD. For Circle, this is a future financing tool; for ecosystem participants, it's an airdrop mystery yet to be issued.
My thinking: I am currently out of position, waiting for this "sell the fact" wave to finish, then see if 80 can hold before re-entering. The problem with the stock is not the product but the regulatory vacuum that is dragging down the valuation of the entire sector—this won't be fixed overnight.ZORA PUMPED HARD, THEN GAVE IT ALL BACK.
Watched $ZORA spike to 0.008981, then slide to a 0.007169 low. Now basing at 0.007375, up 1.45% today despite a rough 7-day stretch. This kind of blow-off top teaches patience fast. Are you buying this base or waiting for confirmation?
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek ZORA✅️ $ARB @冰糖橙派对 ARB Harmonic Breakdown (current price $0.1591, 24h +18.3%): 🧩 Main daily pattern: X 0.0830 → A 0.2061 → B 0.1323, AB/XA = 0.60 (≈0.618) → Meets the Gartley/Bat prerequisite, potential D zone: • 0.786 XA = 0.1798 (Gartley D, bearish reversal zone) • 0.886 XA = 0.1921 (Bat D) → Rebound to 0.178–0.192 is the harmonic short zone/reduction zone. 📐 Fibonacci retracement holds position (declines A0.2061→B0.1323): The current price is stuck at 0.382 retracement = 0.1605, yesterday's high of 0.16034 was precisely blocked — this is the current ceiling. Further up: 0.5 = 0.1692 / 0.618 = 0.1779 (resonating with Gartley D) / 0.786 = 0.1903. 🔻 Below: 0.236 = 0.1497 (≈ 0.1500 level) → previous dip was 0.1433 → structural low 0.1323 (harmonic X = life and death line). ⚡ Conclusion: The current price is at 0.382 but is resisted, while the above 0.169 →0.178 are stacked harmonic pressures, making the long position cost-effective. • Go long: etcFrom an unrealized profit of $5.05 million to a current unrealized loss of $4.29 million, this ETH whale has taught all contract traders a lesson: unrealized profits, if not taken, are really just numbers on a screen.
According to on-chain monitoring, since August 31, a certain whale has been long 45,000 ETH with 8x leverage. The entire position is currently valued at about $107 million, making it the third largest single-coin position on Hyperliquid.
The opening average price of this position was $2,486.37, with a liquidation price at $2,181.79. The most thrilling part is that this position once had a peak unrealized profit of $5.054 million, but the whale did not exit. As ETH’s price fell back, it has now turned into an unrealized loss of $4.295 million.
Back and forth, the paper value changed by nearly ten million dollars.
Moreover, the hardest part about leveraged positions is not just price volatility. To continue holding this 45,000 ETH long position, this address has already paid over $540,000 in funding fees. As long as the market does not move in the expected direction, even without hitting the liquidation line, time itself keeps burning money.
What’s even more interesting is that on-chain data shows this is the first time this address has opened a position. The first move was an 8x leveraged, over $100 million ETH long position—this scale of position is no longer just "testing the waters" in the ordinary sense.$UNI Nu is all over the news covering half of Brazil, yet UNI is stuck at 6.305, barely moving, not even making a splash.
It has fallen all the way down from 7.48, with all five moving averages pressing down from above, and the SAR hanging coldly at 6.76. The worst is the sub-chart data: the J value has dropped directly to 7.35, and the RSI is lying at 41.55. It looks extremely oversold, but the market doesn't even give a decent rebound, which is the creepiest part. This indicates there is no big capital support below; it's all retail investors holding the bag with their own bodies.
The low point at 6.16 has now become the last fig leaf. Those who rushed in a few weeks ago shouting "DeFi takeoff" are probably stunned in front of their screens now. Positive news can't push the price up; this is capital voting with their feet.
At the 6.30 level, do you think the main force is extremely suppressing the price to accumulate, or is it simply going to break below the 6-level to test the bottom? Those holding UNI now, do you still have the confidence to hold overnight? Let's discuss in the comments.#贝森特听证释放多重信号
He said the Treasury buyback was successful, citing "the best two auctions in 20 years" as evidence. In the same week, the 30-year mortgage rate was 7.12%.
At the 9/15 hearing, Bernanke defended three fronts:
▪️ Yen intervention: only a "symbolic" amount used, estimated under 1 billion; Japan simultaneously spent 96.4 billion
▪️ Treasury buyback: claimed success, actually bought back 5.187 billion (market expected 7–10 billion)
▪️ $5,000 checks: claimed no increase in deficit, funding "in progress," no mechanism
The disagreement is not about whether he has tools; all three fronts use symbolic scales for structural problems. He himself said: "I can't change the equilibrium price, only slow it down."
The premise for the signals to take effect is market trust. He reports demand; the market looks at price: 10Y US Treasury 5.04% (highest since 2007), 10Y Japanese bond 3.025% (highest since 1996).
Regarding BTC: the transmission chain is in Japan. If the Bank of Japan raises rates on Thursday and the US-Japan interest rate spread narrows, the 1–3 trillion carry trade positions will need to be revalued—liquidations do not care about asset classes. The 9/15 event was a rehearsal: Circle and Coinbase dropped over 10%. Failure condition: yen does not break 152.
Is the toolbox sufficient, or are all three leaking?🔷 $SOL: upgrade sold, entries from both edges
• Price 97.3: 4h MA cluster 98.5-102 above; $100 resistance
• Fuel: long 94.2-96.0, short 97.8-100.8 and 103.8-107
• Perps sold V1: CVD −112 million
🧠 $100 did not hold the breakdown: long from fuel, short from MA cluster.
🎣 Long 94.2-95.8, take 98/101, stop 93.4. Short 100.5-102, take 97.8/95.8, stop 103.4. Today 20:00-22:30 MSK no positions.
⚠️ Hawkish FOMC on top of sold upgrade = test of shelf 90.2-92.
❓ Which edge first: 94 or 102?👇 $CNPY dropped from 0.4154 to 0.3673 with a big bearish candle, and many brothers are now standing guard at the peak.
Starting from 0.15 and surging nearly threefold, this newly listed coin rises ruthlessly, and when it crashes, it doesn't even say goodbye. The price is now barely holding on the MA5 (0.36) to catch its breath, with the SAR overhead firmly pressing at 0.41, the J value plummeting from the sky to 49, and the RSI still stubbornly holding at a high 70. Indicators are starting to recede, but the sentiment is still stubbornly holding on.
The most realistic scene is: those shouting “stars and the sea” above 0.4 now don’t even dare to open the software. The game of new coins is this brutal—first movers get eaten by the latecomers, and those slow to react don’t even get a chance to stop loss.
This narrow bridge at 0.36—do you think it’s a golden pit for catching falling knives, or a relay station before the next waterfall? If you have positions, are you ready to face the upcoming roller coaster?One thousand five hundred and fifteen machines are checking in, 98% of them in Brazil. This is not a botnet report; someone is using the $ETH mainnet as their own infrastructure.
Infected browser extensions bypass Chromium's integrity checks, installing into Chrome and Edge without user confirmation. After obtaining credentials and session tokens, where do the commands come from? They are read from smart contracts. The C2 address and payload location are written on-chain and can be changed at any time.
Defenders block domains and IPs, but the opponent just changes a contract state entry to switch everything. Immutability on-chain here becomes the attackers' stability guarantee.
Currently, only this segment of the chain of events disclosed by SlowMist can be confirmed. To falsify, focus on one point: whether new writes appear in calls to the related contracts. If none occur for a long time, it indicates this infrastructure may have been abandoned.
#标普领投Kaiko，布局链上数据标准 $ETH Brothers, after the CLARITY Act was blocked yesterday, $BTC and $ETH have already released a round of sentiment in advance. Coupled with rising oil prices and US Treasury yields, pressure on risk assets remains.
What we really need to watch today is not simply "whether to raise interest rates," but the wording, dot plot, and subsequent rate path after the FOMC decision. The market has already priced in a 25bp rate hike quite heavily, so if there is no clearly hawkish signal beyond expectations, it is more likely to see a "bad news priced in recovery"; but if stronger tightening signals continue to be released, once BTC breaks below 74,900 and ETH below 2,356, the weakness could be amplified again.
At this position, I won’t blindly chase shorts. The drop yesterday was already significant, and today feels more like waiting for news to choose a direction. Both bulls and bears need to guard against sudden spikes.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #10年期美债收益率突破5% Although the bill didn't pass, its status hasn't changed; this is my attitude towards $XRP!
One vote pushed back a rally that had lasted for a month. The market sold off everything related to regulation. But one thing didn't drop: its compliant status.
Why?
Because the bill regulates market structure, not whether it counts as a security. Ripple responded immediately after the vote, stating that the legal status of $XRP remains unchanged. The 2023 court ruling still stands, and the joint interpretation by the SEC and CFTC in March this year still classifies it as a digital commodity.
So what was crushed this time was the "policy dividend timeline," not the "legitimacy of the asset itself." The ETF channel is still running as usual, with cumulative net inflows approaching $1.7 billion, and net inflows have continued for 9 consecutive weeks. Nine weeks!!
So I will be closely watching $XRP these days because it will be re-priced based on payment and ETF fundamentals.
And the long upper shadow that surged to 1.492 on September 14th marks the peak of this round of expected pricing;
Before reclaiming the 1.3753 twenty-day moving average, any rebound can only be considered a recovery. What really needs to be clarified is not whether the bill will pass, but whether anyone is still willing to hold it during the bill's absence. If you hold on, there might be surprises waiting for you later!DeFi is pulling back together, but which of HYPE, AAVE, and UNI is still held by real capital?
#DeleveragingRiskAssetsBeforeFOMC
#HYPESpotETFNetOutflowOf3.9MillionUSDInOneDay
When the market weakens, DeFi tokens are the easiest to be hit together, but the capital logic behind these three coins is completely different: HYPE relies on trading activity, AAVE depends on lending and collateral demand, and UNI waits for on-chain transactions to heat up again. The comparison now is not about whose story is bigger, but who still has sustained buying after the pullback.
$HYPE is currently around $77.4, down about 2.7%, with a daily low of 75.3. 75 is the short-term lifeline; holding above it and breaking through 80 again means the strong structure remains intact; if the ETF continues to outflow and it falls below 75, high-level chips may start to loosen.
$AAVE is around $121.3, down about 4.7%, facing the most pressure among the three. Around 120, watch for support; reclaiming 125 is just stopping the bleeding, and breaking through 128.8 means buying is back. $UNI is about $6.43, down about 2.6%, with 6.18–6.25 as the defense zone; retaking 6.60, then watch if 6.82 can be consumed.
Looking ahead, upward targets are HYPE returning to 80 first, AAVE reclaiming 128.8, and UNI breaking 6.82 with volume; downward watch is whether AAVE loses 120 first. DeFi rebounds never lack the first bullish candle; the challenge is whether on-chain demand and the second wave of capital can continue after that initial surge.#OpenAI拟IPO前融资，估值目标达1.2万亿美元 OpenAI's massive fundraising is reinforcing the AI narrative, but from the perspective of capital flow and sentiment transmission
$BTC OpenAI IPO delayed until 2027, funds originally expected to flow into "tech IPOs" will be postponed and locked in the private market, providing a short-term liquidity substitution benefit to the crypto market. However, beware of the reverse logic: if the IPO delay is interpreted by the market as a cooling of tech risk appetite, high-valuation assets will be the first to come under pressure, and Bitcoin will find it difficult to remain unaffected. The valuation gap game formed between the $1.2 trillion valuation and the Pre-IPO perpetual contracts launched by OKX (implied valuation already 42% higher than the March Series F round) will indirectly divert speculative funds from the crypto market.
Gold is the most direct beneficiary as the valuation anchor rises. The $1.2 trillion AI valuation reshapes the "ceiling" of global tech assets, indirectly strengthening inflation expectations and the demand for diversified asset allocation. Combined with the Fed's September rate hike expectation rising to about 90% (federal funds rate at 3.63%), the tug-of-war between rising interest rates and a weakening dollar will intensify for gold prices. $XAUT $HBAR is enterprise/tokenization beta. Slower holders can make it look strong on risk off days and late on breakouts.
$XDC moves on trade finance and RWA issuance headlines. The chain story can be real while the token book stays thin and jumpy.
$ONDO is liquid tokenized-treasuries beta. It works when on chain T-bill demand grows; it is still crypto duration.
RWA is not a free hedge.ETF outflows do not necessarily mean that institutions are completely bearish on BTC; it could also be the same position just changing its appearance.
Institutions can hold spot ETFs or gain BTC exposure through CME futures, options, or other instruments. When the price spread between ETFs and futures, financing costs, or margin efficiency changes, funds may sell ETFs, adjust futures positions, or even just close a set of arbitrage trades. What appears on the surface as fund redemptions actually requires analyzing futures basis and open interest to determine how much directional long exposure has truly decreased.
This is why I no longer directly translate daily ETF data as "institutional buying" or "institutional fleeing." ETF flows are important but represent only a window into institutional balance sheets, not the entire building.
A nearly $450 million outflow over three days does create pressure, especially with a clear acceleration on the last day. But as of September 10, the cumulative inflow for September still indicates net inflows, showing that different time windows can lead to completely opposite conclusions.
If ETF outflows, futures basis decline, and open interest contract simultaneously, that looks more like a full retreat; if funds are just moving from one instrument to another, it is more a cost choice than a collapse of conviction.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 Term Structure Radar
$BTC annualized basis decreases with maturity: near-term, mid-term, and long-term annualized basis are +9.14% / +5.50% / +5.09% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$169.2.
$ETH annualized basis decreases with maturity: near-term, mid-term, and long-term annualized basis are +5.25% / +4.58% / +3.99% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$3.07.
$SOL annualized pricing at the three maturities is not monotonically arranged: near-term, mid-term, and long-term annualized basis are +4.22% / +1.54% / +1.91% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$0.10. The mid-term maturity breaks the monotonic pattern, and the difference between near and long term is insufficient to describe the entire curve.
BTC, ETH: near-term annualized basis is higher than long-term, with higher annualized pricing concentrated near term.
BTC, ETH, SOL: all three maturities are in contango. 🏜️ Saudi Arabia grits its teeth: production cut back to the lowest since 1990📉. OPEC+ collectively "dieting," oil brother is starving into a strongman, the hungrier the higher it goes💪 → supply contraction = inflation harder to tame, high interest rate cycle extended, crypto liquidity being "slowly drained"🩸. $CL $BTC $ETH #中东能源风险推高油价 The most lethal move on the chessboard is never sacrificing the queen, but quietly castling your king and rook while everyone is focused on the central pawn structure, placing the rook on the only open file.
In the previous round, the valuation was set at 852 billion, a standard opening—safe, reviewable, and leaving room for maneuver. Now, pushing the bid directly above 1.2 trillion is not a continuation; it’s like announcing a half-piece sacrifice for full control of the board right at the start of the midgame. The sacrifice is in material, but the gain is control over the entire long diagonal.
Grandmasters evaluate the position without consulting a material value table. Training and reasoning infrastructure is the pawn structure; once the pawn structure is disrupted, all the fancy tactical combinations are castles in the air—entertaining to watch but collapsing after a single exchange. There is only one true passed pawn: commercial traction. Last week, model invocation expenses surpassed that long-standing rival for the first time, earning a tempo advantage—an excess of time. But tempo does not equal advantage; advantage must convert into a winning endgame—revenue, growth, and gross margin. Missing any one of these, the 1.2 trillion valuation rests on a weak square as an isolated piece; the opponent can exchange casually, and you won’t even recover the compensation.
He said no IPO in 2026. Outsiders read this as hesitation; insiders see it as a refusal to prematurely exchange material. Once the initiative is fully exchanged, all that remains is passive defense, waiting for the opponent’s mistake, and risking a misstep in time panic. Meanwhile, computing costs are rising—this is a buildup of pawns, a structural, incurable hidden weakness. The larger the board, the more expensive the hidden weakness; this is the coldest form of positional calculation.
As for that linked target, it is essentially a derivative market of this game, a separate match played by spectators at the next table. Club players love to play one move at a time, only remembering to find the king when in check; true calculation means having already projected the pawn structure transformations twenty moves ahead before placing a piece. Now everyone is counting how many digits the valuation has, but no one counts how many moves its cash flow can sustain, nor checks if its pawn chain has any breaks.
What I’m focused on is another matter: the opening phase of this game is over, the first midgame exchange has not yet occurred, and both sides are making prophylactic, preventive moves, unwilling to reveal any weak squares first. In this situation, the most dangerous threat is not the opponent’s attack, but your own illusion of having ample time.
The most valuable piece on the board is always the one that hasn’t moved yet. #openai1.2tpreipoLast night's result did surprise the market. The U.S. Senate failed to reach the required 60 votes for the CLARITY Act, ultimately ending with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, so the bill temporarily cannot move to the next stage. After the news broke, BTC briefly fell below $76,000, and crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Circle also weakened, reigniting concerns about regulatory uncertainty. However, this procedural blockade does not mean the bill is permanently over. There is still a possibility for the Senate to reconsider, but as the midterm elections approach, the remaining legislative time and political divisions have increased uncertainty. The controversy mainly centers on officials' conflicts of interest in crypto, stablecoin yields, regulatory authority, and consumer protection. More noteworthy is another major event in the market today—the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Currently, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike is close to 93%, so besides the actual interest rate outcome, the Fed's statements on future policy paths may also become a key focus for the market. So next, we can look at two variables separately: 📌 **CLARITY:** Focus on whether further negotiations and whether the bill can continue to advance 📌 **Fed:** Focus on interest rate decisions and post-meeting policy signals 📌 **BTC/ETH/SOL:** Observe the market's actual reaction after the news materializes, rather than guessing the direction ahead of time Regulation is a slow variable, and interest rate expectations are often the factor that quickly influences market sentiment. Tonight, really$BTC This wave basically went according to the script.
First, it swept the upper high, then ate up that large chunk of liquidity around 75.5K. The liquidity at this position is too concentrated, making it hard for the market to ignore.
Now 75.5K is the key dividing line.
If the 4h close falls back below here, the downside space may open further; but currently the price still holds above 75.5K, and buying support remains.
As long as the structure stays stable, I will watch for a retest of the previous high.📈 If the Federal Reserve raises rates by 25bp tonight, the interest rate range will move to 3.75%–4.00%, with a midpoint of 3.875%.
The Fed's June SEP median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 3.8%.
In other words, if this rate hike is implemented, the policy rate will have roughly reached the year-end level that participants expected three months ago.
After the rate hike, whether the Fed still thinks the current rates are high enough is the key point tonight.
The market pricing for a 25bp hike tonight is already close to 93%, so part of this has been priced in and digested by the market in advance.
What’s more worth watching now are the new rate forecasts, the dot plot, and the statements from the Waugh press conference regarding the future rate path.
If the future rate path does not show a clear further increase, this hike looks more like a policy adjustment targeting recent inflation pressures.
But if the new rate forecasts continue to rise and leave more room for future hikes, the market will be repricing not just tonight’s 25bp, but also the possibility of higher rates maintained for longer in the future.