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It is normal for the price to sweep back and forth within the range before the decision; a surge does not necessarily mean a bull trap. The key is whether the resistance level can be broken with volume, so don't prematurely fixate on a bearish mindset.
The market is slightly rising; on one hand, this is a short-term short squeeze caused by crowded shorts, and on the other hand, the market is pricing in that this time there will only be one rate hike, not a series of continuous hikes.
The real variables tonight are tomorrow's FOMC decision and the dot plot, and today there is also the CLARITY procedural vote. If the statement confirms a 25 basis point hike and the dot plot continues to be revised upward, Bitcoin could retest support at any time.
$BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周 Just about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked the balance and decided against it; the market daddy is always right. Last night before bed, I was watching $KAT. Every time it surged, it just lacked a bit of momentum, with clear resistance above, volume didn’t keep up, and no one was there to catch it on the way up. I signaled to stay bearish and keep holding short positions, don’t get shaken off by small rebounds. Before the market fully kicked off, there should have been a reaction at this level.
The last glance before sleep was still hovering, and when I opened the market this morning, it gave the answer directly: pressed down from 0.004963 to 0.004247, short positions floating profit +288.53%, nailed it. Those on board must have woken up smiling; this wave was worth the wait, hitting the rhythm just right feels great.
Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking.
Being out of position isn’t a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection, move the stop loss closer to the cost price. If it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don’t let the gains turn uncomfortable. Now is not the time to rush, wait for the next move, and reassess when the new structure emerges.
There’s still opportunity, don’t rush, if you miss it, you miss it; don’t chase shorts during rebounds and get caught at the ankles. For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will signal it immediately.
$SOL $LAB Crypto voting tonight, now is the time to bet on sentiment. Institutions have been selling hard these past few days. If you want to play, you can start with a small position to feel the volatility, but don’t go all in right away.
I’m a bit conflicted about $ETH this time. The market has already dropped a round in advance. If the vote ultimately fails, sentiment might have been priced in early, which could actually lead to a rebound after the bad news hits;
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek 🐋 This is the real boss.
40x leverage, heavily long on Bitcoin, once surged to become the third largest long position on Hyperliquid.
Held the position for 1 hour, when the trend turned, cut losses of $312,000 and exited immediately.
No holding on, no adding, no illusions.
The boss gave everyone a lesson in 1 hour:
Position size can be large, leverage can be high, but stop loss must be faster than anyone else.
This is how you stay seated at the table for the long run.
$BTC FIL up 20%, ZEC up 134%, WLD stagnant for three days, if you can only hold one overnight tonight, who do you choose?
If you can only hold one overnight tonight, who do you choose? Let's put the three on the table first: FIL just rose 20% with RSI overbought, ZEC up 134% in 30 days at the 1200 threshold, $WLD has been flat at 0.40 for three days.
First look at $FIL 0.99, which surged 20% in one day yesterday to break above $1, with trading volume 3.6 times the 30-day average. It moves opposite to US storage chip stocks, with funds speculating on the DePIN narrative, but RSI is overbought at this level, so when the shoe drops tomorrow night, it’s very likely to be sold off first, don’t chase it.
Next, $ZEC 1152, this privacy token has rebounded 6%, volume ratio 82% above average, 1200 is the previous high watershed. Only when volume breaks above 1200 does the space open up; now at 1150 mid-level, this kind of speculative coin is for quick in and out, don’t hold overnight.
Finally, $WLD 0.40, Altman iris AI coin, has fallen 20% from 0.50 to 0.40 sideways, 0.37 is the critical point. Despite the AI crash overseas, it didn’t fall with it. When the shoe drops tomorrow night and AI sentiment recovers, it will bounce fastest. It’s the only one among the three you can hold overnight waiting for recovery.
The answer is WLD. FIL is overbought, ZEC is too speculative, don’t hold them overnight. WLD is sitting at 0.37 waiting for AI recovery, the outcome will be clear when the shoe drops tomorrow night.Third, the restless urge to trade. When there is no qualifying buy point, because of idleness, there is always the desire to open a position, forcibly looking for opportunities, trading vague upward movements. Vague opportunities themselves have a low win rate, and combined with 75x high leverage, any small mistake will be magnified.
Upgrading leverage to 75x compared to the previous 50x has obvious advantages: it can amplify returns and offset some of the losses caused by fees, allowing more profit from the same market fluctuations. However, the higher the leverage, the stricter the requirements for entry timing, mindset, and discipline. The model itself is fine; the difficulty lies in overcoming human nature: overcoming the impulse to enter hastily, controlling your hands, and not forcing trades when there is no certain opportunity.
Summary of core disciplines:
1. Firmly exclude trading at market open; only observe 15 minutes before the open, do not open any positions, wait for the market to stabilize before looking for the optimal buy point.
2. Only trade clear turning points at the optimal buy point; reject vague upward opportunities; if there is no good buy point, stay out and rest.
3. Once profit reaches the target, immediately use shortcut keys to take profit; do not hold on waiting for more illusory profits.
4. The biggest taboo in leveraged trading is a mindset collapse; once there is a large drawdown, reduce operations and calmly exit.
5. Control your hands; avoid frequent trading out of idleness; only trade high-certainty market conditions.
Today was a profound lesson; the model is feasible, the rest is to continuously refine the mindset and adhere to trading rules.This wave of BTC is not a long liquidation turnover, but a short takeover.
Price drops while OI rises, indicating it's not the old longs being washed out, but new shorts adding positions.
Spot and futures net buying both turn positive, shorts have already started to take control of the market.
The sign of turnover completion is OI falling along with the price; now OI is still rising, meaning the shorts haven't exhausted their ammunition.
Don't mistake the big bearish candle as a bottom handover ceremony.
The turnover isn't complete yet. It looks more like shorts taking over, not longs surrendering.
A true long-short turnover usually involves: a big bearish candle + OI dropping simultaneously + longs being swept out of the market.
This chart is reversed—the price is falling, OI is rising. This means the old longs haven't been fully cleared, and new shorts are entering during the downtrend.
Combined with the two lower columns showing spot net buying and futures net buying turning positive, both sides are selling simultaneously. This is not a "bottom turnover completion," but shorts beginning to take over pricing power.Besant said the president's intention behind that $5,000 check is "very real." The significance of this statement for traders lies not in the check itself, but in where the money comes from.
At the same time, the Treasury referred to third-party litigation financing profits as a malignant factor in the financial system and plans to review it. Looking at these two matters together, it seems more like finding a pretext for raising taxes first, then discussing giving out money. The political resistance to directly printing money is too great, while taxing specific gains can be more easily packaged as fair.
If it really happens, in the short term it is a fiscal stimulus expectation, and risk assets will react first; but the pressure on Treasury supply will also rise simultaneously. At this stage, the transmission can only be confirmed directionally. Watch two things: whether the proposal enters formal legislative text, and whether the Treasury provides specific tax criteria. If neither happens, it is just a statement.
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $HYPE Today's Trading Review
The overall market understanding today, BS point judgment, and bottom-fishing mode framework are valid; this trading model is feasible.
Today, I traded SanDisk in this wave, with the market dropping from a high level to near the zero axis for bottom-fishing, presenting a very clear opportunity. With 75x leverage, this trade could yield 60-70 points of profit, forming an N-shaped back-and-forth T-trading space; subsequent bottom-fishing at the ice point after the drop can also steadily earn 40-50 points of profit. Once the target profit is reached, you can directly rest and exit. For most other trades, the BS buy and sell point judgments align with my system, and executing with a calm mindset yields better results.
There were major losses and two liquidations today, but the root cause is not the trading model itself; it is a matter of discipline and human nature.
First, rushing to open positions at the market open. I have already experienced more than ten liquidations during the opening phase, yet I still haven't learned the lesson from a few days ago. The 15 minutes before market open are chaotic, with many spikes and false signals, representing a high-risk period. One should patiently wait 15 minutes after the open until the market stabilizes and the direction is clear before entering. Today, rushing to enter early led to a continuous deep drop, causing a significant account drawdown and breaking my mindset. With leveraged trading, once your mindset collapses, it's easy to make consecutive wrong decisions.
Second, profit-taking execution was inadequate. Some trades were not exited promptly after gaining profit and did not take profit at the set points. Going forward, I need to set up a quick take-profit hotkey because manual order placement on the computer is too slow. Once the profit target is met, I should immediately close the position with one click and avoid fighting the market. Above 2350 on ETH, why do I still dare to place long orders?
Brothers, watching the market late at night, let me speak honestly. ETH just quickly dropped from 2478 to 2433, nearly 2% down in 15 minutes, with selling pressure clearly outweighing buying pressure, which is indeed scary for the short term. But I still place long orders in the 2358–2370 range. It's not stubbornness, the logic hasn't changed.
On the news front, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision is about to be announced, and the market is waiting. The real risk is not whether rates will be raised or not, but whether the post-meeting statement will be hawkish or dovish. Additionally, the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is imminent; the probability of passing is low, but it will amplify emotional volatility. Ethereum spot ETFs have recently seen continuous capital inflows; institutions haven't stopped, so there is still medium-term support. Therefore, before the macro decision lands, I don't heavily bet on direction, but I am not completely bearish either.
Technically, above 2350 is a key support; the weekly line near 2400 has not been effectively broken for more than three weeks. As long as 2350 is not effectively breached, the rebound logic still holds.
My plan: go long; enter near 2358–2370; 10x leverage; 10% position; take profit in batches at 2405, 2450, 2500; stop loss slightly below 2340.
Before the interest rate decision, test with a 10% position, set stop loss properly, and leave the rest to the market. Stay steady, don't get shaken out by short-term fluctuations.
$ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY投票前分歧未解 AKE current price is 0.0276580, the order book funds have not followed the news but show a typical low-level accumulation structure. Continuous large buy orders appear around 0.0273 to 0.0275, while selling pressure concentrates between 0.0283 and 0.0287, forming a short-term compression triangle. The naked K-line left a long lower shadow at 0.0268, indicating passive fund absorption below. Funding rate turned negative, shorts are overcrowded, so the rebound is likely to first liquidate short positions.
Just turned the car into the old neighborhood, the order reminder calls keep ringing, can only quickly glance at the market. Can't wait for a breakout here; if the pullback near 0.0274 holds, I will directly try going long. Entry range is set between 0.0273 and 0.0277, with a stop loss at 0.0266; breaking this means a false absorption. The first take profit target is 0.0288, the second at 0.0296. The risk-reward ratio is barely acceptable, but small coins fluctuate quickly, so position size must be kept low, otherwise, I will have to find ways to top up margin again.
$AKE
#沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周
@OKX星球 What chess players fear most is not the opponent sacrificing the queen, but the opponent quietly completing Wang Yi's pawn chain lock while you still believe the position is balanced. $NMR is exactly such a game right now—on the surface, it’s still up 2.41% in 24H, the market looks calm, but the short-term Bollinger Bands have already pushed the price to 112%, just -0.4% away from the upper band. This is not an advantage; it’s a lone soldier deep in enemy lines without reinforcements.
My evaluation chart is very clear: short-term RSI is 65.3, already stepping on the 64 warning line—this is a typical overextension of the rear wing, pieces have moved forward while the center is empty. Meanwhile, the long-term RSI is only 45.5, meaning the big board’s pawn structure hasn’t kept up. Short-term leading, long-term lagging—this structure in chess is a "false offensive"; once the opponent counter-exchanges pieces, the advanced pawns become burdens.
So this is a game where I need to actively change direction. We don’t chase highs; we wait for the opponent at their most excited square.
My move is very deliberate: not to clash hard at 9.18 now, but to place the Entry at 9.31, 1.5% above the current price—this lets the opponent first complete that inevitable passing move, and when their pawn structure fully stretches and exposes baseline weaknesses, I go in to capture pieces. This is the grandmaster’s approach: not fighting for every pawn, but fighting for control of the squares.
📉 Short:
Entry: 9.31 (current price +1.5%)
Take Profit 1: 8.63 (-5.9%)
Take Profit 2: 8.82 (-3.9%)
Stop Loss: 10.16 (+10.7%)
Note this asymmetry: my first target is 5.9% below entry, while stop loss is set at 10.16, requiring the price to reverse and surge 10.7% to hit it. In the endgame, this is the value of exchanging a pawn for a rook. The mid-term Bollinger Bands show price just 1.6% below the upper band with bandwidth at 71%, indicating the upper space is compressed—there aren’t many squares left above, and the opponent’s idle moves are being cleared out.
The real killer move is in timing. When short-term momentum is exhausted and long-term hasn’t taken over, the position enters a forced state: the opponent must move, but every move weakens themselves. 8.82 is my first exchange line, 8.63 is the net-closing line. This game doesn’t require complex tactical combinations, just patience—waiting for that upper band to push the price down.
Chess principles are always simple: advantage isn’t about moving more steps, but about leaving the opponent with no moves. $NMR’s short-term is already gasping outside the upper band; this is not a call to attack, but the bell signaling the start of the endgame. #coinmovealertBesant said the president is "very serious" about the $5,000 check.
To translate, the Treasury Department is already reviewing this proposal; it's not just talk.
But don't get too excited yet.
This money isn't for the crypto community; it's for every adult American.
If it really gets distributed, in the short term it's like easing, but in the long term inflation expectations will rise again.
The market might first hype up the sentiment that "there will be more money."
What I care more about is that this is still two chambers of Congress away from becoming reality.
So if you ask me whether this is bullish or bearish now, I can't say for sure.
But one thing is clear: once this level of easing expectation really starts to move forward, risk assets won't be unaffected.
Keep an eye on what's happening in Congress; that's more useful than guessing price moves now.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#10年期美债收益率突破5% #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 $ETH Xingran Midnight Gold 4-Hour Market Analysis (2026.9.15)
Price has been oscillating downward from 4434, with highs continuously moving lower. After bottoming at 4253, it has repaired at a low level and is currently at 4284, with weak rebound and overall weakness.
Negative factors:
1. US August core CPI month-on-month +0.3% exceeded expectations, inflation stickiness remains strong
2. Federal Reserve September policy tightening probability at 92.4%, almost certain
3. 10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%, raising gold holding costs
4. Brent crude oil once surged to $109, strengthening the energy inflation tightening logic
Core logic: Oil price rise → inflation expectations rise → tightening expectations strengthen → US Treasury yields and USD rise together → gold under pressure, geopolitical conflicts become a drag.
Key variable: Federal Reserve meeting in progress, decision announced early Thursday, market fully priced in, focus on subsequent signals.
Strategy reference
Resistance 4317
Strong resistance 4344
Support 4261
Key support 4253
Invalidation line 4344
Entry: Short on rebound at 4310-4317, stop loss at 4345, target 4270→4253
Summary
Bears dominate, 4253 is key support, break below continues downward; maintain high short positions before holding above 4344. Pay attention to position size before the meeting result, strict stop loss. $XAU #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 #沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周 A building never collapses because the exterior paint peels off; it’s because the load-bearing wall on an uninspected floor had its steel bars stolen. $MORPHO dropped 4.54% in 24 hours. Most people only see the dirty facade, but I focus on whether its load transfer path is broken.
The whitepaper is just a blueprint; anyone can draw a beautiful plan. What truly determines whether a building can stand for thirty years is the foundation depth, concrete grade, and node anchoring—in project terms, that corresponds to the underlying architecture, development capability, and long-term scalability. If this layer doesn’t collapse, then price fluctuations can be discussed.
Where is the current structural elevation? The short-term Bollinger Band position is only 12%, just 0.9% from the lower band, with 6.5% space left to the upper band; the mid-term is even more extreme, pressed down to 4%, only 0.3% from the lower band. This is not an ordinary pullback; the entire column is almost pressed tightly against the ground beam, and the buffer layer is completely compressed away. The short-term RSI is 34.9, already sliding into the cold zone; the long-term RSI is 48.9, still at absolute neutrality. Local pressure but no main cracks—in my view, this is the window to rebuild scaffolding and lay out lines.
Following the blueprint, position allocation is as follows:
📈 Long:
Entry: 1.86 (current price -2.3%)
Take Profit 1: 2.06 (+8.0%)
Take Profit 2: 2.03 (+6.2%)
Stop Loss: 1.69 (-11.6%)
The entry point is pressed at a 2.3% dip, excavate first then pour concrete, never erect columns on backfill soil. The first take profit at 8.0% is the top elevation of the first floor; 6.2% is the secondary acceptance line—between these two elevations, there is enough room for one structural load relief. The 11.6% stop loss distance is the pile foundation failure line I reserved for this building—once breached, it means the bearing layer below was misjudged, and the entire load transfer path must be demolished and recalculated, leaving no room for patching.
I have seen too many projects still look beautiful on topping-off day, but three years after delivery, the wall cracks can fit a finger. Price hugging the lower Bollinger Band doesn’t mean the blueprint is flawed; it just means the market is temporarily unwilling to pay for this column. What really needs to be tested is whether the load can steadily transfer down to the bedrock.
No structural cracks, load concentrated, elevation has entered the construction zone—this is all the information I need to read. #coinmovealertTrader's 90-day return is 46.68%, but the followers' aggregate is negative?
The same Lead Trader shows completely opposite directions in two sets of public data.
Milies L's 90D cumulative return rate is 46.68%.
However, OKX directly provides the current followers' group aggregate profit and loss as -612,829.85 USDT.
This is not a number I obtained by adding followers one by one, but a summary field returned by OKX's public API.
Looking at the risk data: his 90D maximum drawdown is 7.04%, with 90 observation points; ATS is 64.06, status FORMAL, confidence HIGH, official ranking #24.
The question is: why is the trader's return positive, but the current followers' group overall negative?
The existing public data is insufficient to determine the reason. Nor can we directly piece together the two sets of data to conclude a causal relationship that "the trader's profit causes followers' losses." OKX's public endpoint also does not provide a fixed historical window for this summary field, so it cannot be extrapolated to those who have stopped following.
This contrast reminds me: when studying copy-trading traders, we should not only look at their own return curve but also separately consider the real results of the followers.
I will continue to track this batch of public traders.
This article is based solely on OKX public data for trader behavior research and does not constitute investment advice.$ETH on exchanges is almost completely withdrawn. The exchanges have no inventory left.
Santiment data: As of September, the ETH balance on exchanges is about 6.06 million, down 73% from the peak of 22.9 million in June 2020. From 22.9 million to 6.06 million, nearly 17 million ETH have been moved out.
But some are still depositing coins to exchanges.
Yesterday, an address dormant for four years deposited 1,250 ETH to MAX Exchange, with a cost basis of 3,159, current price 2,490, taking a 20% loss to cut losses. Another address deposited 3,333 ETH to OKX and withdrew 5.92 million USDT. Today, two addresses dormant for four years again deposited 14,700 ETH to OKX, average price 2,517, cost basis higher than current price.
On one hand, ETH is leaving exchanges network-wide; on the other, a few old holders are sending ETH back to exchanges.
What does this indicate?
Broadly, ETH is indeed exiting. Staking, ETFs, cold wallets, vaults—Santiment attributes this to "long-term custody arrangements." In other words, the vast majority of ETH holders choose to move coins off exchanges, not intending to sell in the short term.
But on a micro level, those old holders who have held for four to five years with costs between 3,100-3,300 are using this rebound back to 2,500 to cut losses and exit. They don’t want to hold, but they can’t hold anymore.
Exchange balances are decreasing, but that doesn’t mean there’s no selling pressure. The selling pressure comes from a specific group—old holders with costs above current prices, who have waited four to five years and finally decided not to wait any longer.The Fear and Greed Index rose to 69 today, indicating a greedy state.
But BTC is currently priced around 76,000, down nearly 3% intraday. Greedy yet falling, the crypto world is always so divided.
Tomorrow, the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act in Eastern US time requires 60 votes to advance. The Republicans hold 53 seats, so they need to bring over 7 Democrats. The prediction market's probability of passage has already dropped to about 17%.
The day after tomorrow is the FOMC interest rate decision, with an 86% chance of a 25bp hike.
Two consecutive days, all bets on the table. $BTC $ETH Core Risk Warnings
1. The probability of the CLARITY Act passing has sharply dropped from 30% to 19%: If the vote fails tonight, short-term sentiment will be hit, but the Coinbase CEO pointed out that the SEC and CFTC are prepared to independently advance rulemaking, so regulatory clarity does not fully depend on this act.
2. The 88% probability of a FOMC rate hike is fully priced in: The real risk lies in the tone of the Powell press conference—if it implies further hikes, BTC could fall below 76,500; if the tone is mild, it may trigger a "bad news is all priced in" style rebound.
3. The weekly implied bearish divergence is a medium-term risk: Price makes lower highs while RSI makes higher highs; if price stalls below resistance and falls again, the significance of this signal will increase substantially.
4. 76,500 is the current critical lifeline: The precise 23.6% Fibonacci level, tested and held twice. If the daily close falls below it, the next target points to 73,000 USD.
5. ETF fund flows show a key turning point: A single-day net inflow of $160 million ended continuous outflows, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $134 million, indicating some institutions are positioning on the left side.
6. Oil price returns to $103: Energy price pulses intensify inflation repricing pressure, the 10-year US Treasury yield nears 5%, continuously suppressing risk assets $BTC $ETH $ZEC #CLARITY投票前分歧未解 🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH | 15M
BTC is defining the immediate structure. ETH is now testing whether capital is willing to follow beyond the market leader.
Strong price action supported by volume and participation strengthens the signal. If ETH remains weak, the market may stay BTC-heavy and selective.
BTC holds + ETH strengthens → 🚀 Broader Flow
BTC holds + ETH lags → ⚠️ Concentrated Liquidity
Watch the follow-through, not just the move. 🔥The dreaded slow decline that meme players fear is back: WIF down -15.65% over seven days
$WIF is currently at 0.179, down 5.441% in 24h, with a bearish daily candle and volume ratio of 0.591. A slow decline with shrinking volume, the most frustrating pattern.
My judgment: Defensive market, short-term bearish — first test 0.1748, rebound at 0.1883 is a shorting opportunity.
First, the daily MACD has been in a death cross for 6 days with expanding green bars, RSI at 47.6, no fuel for a rebound.
Second, the 7-day drop of -15.65% and the 30-day rebound of 31.81% are being eaten away bit by bit, the more it rebounds, the weaker it gets.
Third, BTC at 76079 is also underwater, with a defensive pattern of 21 up and 46 down days; meme high-beta assets are the first to be cut.
Resistance above: 0.1883 (today's high)
Support below: 0.1748 (today's low) → 0.1633 (acceleration point)
Watershed level: 0.1748. Holding this level means grinding around 0.179; breaking below points to 0.1633.
Conclusion: Most likely a grind, not a V-shaped rebound — the long-short ratio is 0.8481, with fewer bulls; breaking 0.1748 shows no support.
Reduce positions at 0.1883 on rebound, clear positions if it breaks 0.1748, don’t wait until 0.1633; if no position, watch 0.1883 closely, go long again after reclaiming it.
Follow and like first, I’ll call the next key move in advance.
$WIF $BTC🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH | 15M
The BTC structure remains the primary signal, but ETH provides the cleaner read on market-wide conviction.
If ETH confirms with stronger participation, breadth improves. If price advances without confirmation, the move carries less internal strength.
BTC leads + ETH confirms → 🚀 Momentum Broadens
BTC leads + ETH diverges → ⚠️ Narrow Momentum
Leadership matters. Confirmation matters more. 🔥🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH | 15M
$BTC controls the short-term direction while $ETH tracks whether liquidity is rotating into broader market exposure.
Price, volume and Open Interest should move together for stronger confirmation. A disconnect between them suggests participation remains selective.
BTC holds + ETH follows → 🚀 Expansion
BTC holds + ETH fades → ⚠️ Selective Strength
Liquidity follows conviction. Watch where the participation appears. 🔥🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH | 15M
The sharper read: BTC is setting the structure; ETH is deciding whether that structure deserves broader market conviction.
Volume confirms participation. Open Interest shows positioning. Price shows the result. When the three align, the signal carries more weight.
BTC holds + ETH confirms → 🚀 Expansion
BTC holds + ETH diverges → ⚠️ Narrow Strength
BTC gives the signal. ETH gives it credibility. 🔥$CP What kind of coin is this again😰
It has retraced nearly 90% from its historical high point
Most traders see the huge drop
Their first reaction is to buy the dip and bet on a rebound
But I chose to short instead, based on the big pitfalls I've encountered with altcoins in the past.
Previously, I encountered altcoins that dropped more than 90%, and subjectively judged that the downside was exhausted, so I heavily bought the dip, thinking I had caught the bottom. However, the market showed that "there's a basement below the floor," with a prolonged downtrend that kept eroding the principal, and I had to painfully exit. The market has long proven that relying solely on the drop percentage to judge the bottom is a huge misconception.
In this round, crypto market funds continue to concentrate on mainstream assets like $BTC, while small coins generally face liquidity shrinkage, and $CP is no exception. Currently, the 24-hour trading volume is less than ten million USD, with only 24,399U liquidated throughout the day and 47 people liquidated. Although the price still fluctuates slightly, off-exchange capital participation is very low, heat is rapidly fading, and without incremental funds, it is difficult to sustain a continuous rebound.
Industry data shows that the vast majority of altcoins enter long-term liquidity exhaustion after the hype fades, project narratives lose appeal, and buying interest gradually disappears. Coupled with this week's FOMC meeting outcome, where macro interest rate expectations are uncertain, in a risk-averse environment, the rebound difficulty for weak altcoins will further increase.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 $APR This trend is as smooth as if someone designed it just for me.
During the repeated fluctuations in the session, while others are still guessing the direction, I see strong selling pressure, low trading volume, and each rebound weaker than the last. Right after reading the negative news, everyone expected a rebound, but I stayed calm. Every upward push runs out of steam, heavy with false bullish signals. I advised to keep holding short positions and not to be fooled by small rebounds into exiting.
Opened short at 0.2422, got the answer at 0.1545, +725.02% in hand, really satisfying. Mastered this wave of decline, the short position was worth holding.
Hold as long as the trend is intact, exit once it breaks, don’t fall in love with the market.
First close 80%, move the stop loss for the remaining 20% to the entry price. Let profits run if it continues down, and don’t give back profits if it rebounds. Take profits when you should, brothers, watch your gains.
For those who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, wait for the next shot. The market isn’t short of opportunities, it’s short of patience. I’ll alert you as soon as the next signal appears.
$LAB $ETH [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, what's really going on before the CLARITY bill vote? Pharaoh says straight up, the divisions aren't resolved, the votes aren't all in, popping champagne and partying with Pharaoh at the top of the pyramid now is just wishful thinking.
Let's look at the timing first. The Senate's official schedule confirms a procedural vote at 2:15 AM Beijing time on September 16. But most insiders expect the vote to likely fail, with the core issue still the deadlock over the ethics clause concerning the Trump family's crypto business. Democrats want to restrict the president from profiting from his own crypto ventures, Republicans say push forward first and negotiate later, so it's a stalemate.
The Republicans released a 635-page final text, incorporating 126 Democratic amendments, and Trump has agreed to about 80% of the ethics clause content.
More drama is happening offstage. Eight banking groups plus 18 state attorneys general have formally opposed it. Banks fear stablecoins will steal deposits, while attorneys general say the bill weakens states' enforcement powers against crypto fraud. The stablecoin side added a "circuit breaker" mechanism, allowing Treasury Secretary Yellen to intervene and halt rewards if there's a massive deposit outflow.
The market is voting with its feet. Bernstein takes the opposite view, saying the market is underestimating progress, with the probability actually rising above 30%.
In short: Republicans have put the dish on the table, but the chopsticks aren't all there yet. We'll see the outcome at 2:15 AM tonight. Regardless of the result, there's another move waiting after the FOMC at 2 AM the day after tomorrow. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #CLARITY投票前分歧未解 I was also pulled into this circle by a friend.
At first, I didn't understand anything.
I just heard people say $BTC could turn things around.
I tried with a few hundred bucks.
That night after buying, I couldn't sleep well.
I kept staring at the K-line back and forth.
When it went up a bit, I wanted to sell.
When it dropped a bit, I regretted it.
Later I realized,
the most tormenting thing about this isn't losing money,
but always thinking you can trade correctly.
I tried chasing the rise,
and also tried cutting losses,
but basically got slapped in the face each time.
I did pay quite a bit in fees though.
Later I saw $ETH,
and felt it seemed to have some potential,
but I still didn't dare to go all in,
just played small.
Looking back now,
ordinary people really shouldn't bet their lives on it,
and borrowed money is even worse.
Leverage is something I fear every time I touch it.
Among people I know, some have made money,
but more are just stubborn.
When the group is shouting orders, it's lively,
but when it really falls, everyone plays dead.
My current approach is very simple:
only use spare money,
buy a little after a big drop,
sell a little after a big rise,
don't guess the top or bottom.
I also looked at $SOL,
its volatility is scary,
if your heart isn't strong, you really can't hold on.
Anyway, there are no gods in this field,
don't brag about guaranteed profits.
I've lost and I've earned,
finally realizing controlling your hands is most important.
Don't always think about getting rich overnight,
being able to sleep well is better than anything.#AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱
#沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解 #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 Bro, the Federal Reserve is about to make moves tonight at midnight, but there's an even bigger news during the day: the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act has officially entered committee review.
Let me break down this bill for you; it centers on three main points. First, to write the strategic Bitcoin reserve into federal law, with the Treasury Department centrally managing it, and in principle holding it for at least 20 years. Second, to establish annual reserve certification and third-party audits. Third, to only study budget-neutral ways to increase holdings, without authorizing borrowing, tax hikes, or deficit spending to buy coins.
How to characterize this news? Long-term, it's a nuclear-level positive; short-term, don't get your hopes up too much.
It's long-term positive because once it's written into law, it can't be influenced by a Trump executive order anymore, and future presidents will find it hard to overturn. Holding for at least 20 years is like giving the market a big reassurance that the government's Bitcoin won't be dumped. Since it's proposed by bipartisan lawmakers, it shows there's cross-party consensus in Congress.
But why not get excited in the short term? Because the clauses are very strict, no authorization to borrow money to buy coins. This means the U.S. government won't be spending real money to buy on the market in the short term; new buying pressure is zero. It locks in expectations, not current liquidity. Plus, with tonight's FOMC, CLARITY vote, and the Bank of Japan all happening, the macro drama is piling up, so market volatility will only get more intense.
Operationally, stick to the old rules: Bitcoin is bottoming out between 76,000 and 78,000, don't chase highs at this critical moment. Hold your base position steady and keep your ammo ready. $BTC Watching the market obsessively is annoying; turning it off actually made things clearer, and my mind stopped panicking without staring at the screen. Last night before bed, I saw $CHIP's rebound was weak, selling pressure was strong, and trading volume was low. I judged resistance above and signaled a short bias. Shorted at 0.04759, current price 0.03744, +426.56%, worth the wait.
Don't let profits inflate your ego, don't despair over pullbacks.
First, close 80%, keep 20% at cost price as protection; if it continues to drop, let the profits run. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak; now is not the time to rush, wait for the next move. Reassess when a new structure forms.
The premise of compounding is survival; shortcuts to getting rich often lead to zero.
$ETH $SOL 🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH | 15M
$BTC remains the liquidity anchor, while $ETH provides the clearest read on capital rotation and market breadth.
The signal improves when price and volume expand together without excessive Open Interest distortion. Divergence suggests participation is still uneven.
BTC holds + ETH confirms → 🚀 Expansion
BTC holds + ETH diverges → ⚠️ Narrow Strength
Follow the relationship, not the headline move. 🔥🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH | 15M
BTC is defining the immediate framework. ETH now has to confirm that the move has enough breadth behind it.
Price without participation can be misleading. Volume and Open Interest provide the sharper confirmation of whether conviction is actually building.
BTC holds + ETH confirms → 🚀 Momentum Broadens
BTC holds + ETH weakens → ⚠️ Limited Breadth
BTC gives direction. ETH reveals conviction. 🔥🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH | 15M
$BTC remains the structural anchor, with $ETH acting as the market's breadth gauge.
The stronger signal is synchronized price action backed by healthy volume and participation. If ETH fails to confirm, the move remains more vulnerable to narrow liquidity.
BTC holds + ETH confirms → 🚀 Expansion
BTC holds + ETH diverges → ⚠️ Narrow Strength
Risk management matters when breadth stops confirming leadership. 🔥The Wash press conference is a key variable. Since taking office, Wash has been known for "refusing forward guidance." At the June debut, the policy statement was only 130 words, causing significant market volatility. The market is currently most focused on whether Wash will repeat "further tightening of policy may be appropriate," or downplay the statement "this rate hike is the last of the cycle." If the hawkish stance is confirmed, it is basically priced in by the market; if Wash unexpectedly releases dovish signals, risk assets may rebound comprehensively. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ I'm not really afraid of tonight's crypto clarity bill vote.
Whether it passes or not, the market probably won't be bad.
The logic is simple: even if it ultimately doesn't pass, the SEC and CFTC will still continue to advance the regulatory framework for the crypto market.
So I don't buy the idea that "not passing = BTC crash."
My judgment is:
If it doesn't pass, BTC may not necessarily fall; it might even rebound.
If it passes, then it's more straightforward, and the short-term rally could be bigger.
What’s really worth watching are the altcoins.
Many altcoins have been consolidating in accumulation zones for a while now, with prices barely moving but chips continuously exchanging hands.
Once the clarity bill narrative lands and market sentiment reopens, altcoins could quickly recover the losses from the past few days.
I’ll be closely watching $ETH, SOL, $XRP, XRP, and $ZEC.
Especially ZEC—after experiencing significant volatility, if funds return to the privacy narrative, the rebound could be strong.
So tonight, I’m not too hung up on "pass or not pass."
What I care more about is:
After the positive news lands, will funds start to rotate from BTC to altcoins?
If this rotation happens, the really interesting market moves might just be beginning. #CLARITY投票前分歧未解 📝Heartfelt Words｜My Most Genuine Feelings About BTC
After discussing so much about the market, expectations, and scenarios, today I want to share some sincere thoughts beyond the candlestick charts.
Considering the domestic security and regulatory environment, the vast majority of ordinary people are actually not suitable to get involved with cryptocurrencies.
There are no daily price limits, no formal trading protections, it fluctuates nonstop 24/7, filled with contracts, price spikes, Ponzi schemes, and false information. Many only see stories of others getting rich quickly but fail to see that 90% of people lose money, get trapped, and emotionally collapse.
If you have truly thought it through and have sufficient idle funds to participate, there is only one bottom line: only use spare money that you can afford to lose completely without affecting your life, with small positions and light, regular investments.
Absolutely do not use living expenses, do not borrow money, and do not use leverage, not even a few times.
Leverage infinitely amplifies human weaknesses.
Even if you have your own judgment, a few times leverage will turn every pullback into torture and every rebound into fear. The logic that small positions can hold will all distort once you use heavy positions with leverage. From the real trading accounts we've shared before, regardless of big or small profits, high leverage is essentially a game on the edge of a knife, an extremely high-risk game that cannot be treated as a replicable strategy.
Believing in its long-term narrative and being suitable to dive in aggressively are two different things.
BTC is a high-risk asset experiment, not a shortcut for ordinary people to turn their fortunes around. Do not enter with the obsession of "breaking social classes through it"; obsession is the biggest source of loss.Tonight, many people will focus all their attention on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates or not.
For BTC and ETH, what truly determines the market trend is often not that single 25bp hike, but how the market trades after realizing it guessed wrong.
The expectation of a rate hike is already very high, and funds have long been trading this outcome in advance.
If a rate hike does happen tonight, it may not necessarily be bearish; the hike itself might have already been priced in by the market. However, if the post-meeting statement is noticeably more hawkish than expected, even hinting at further tightening ahead, that could bring a second wave of pressure on BTC and ETH.
Conversely, if the hike occurs but the subsequent stance is not as hawkish as imagined, the market is likely to show a typical reaction:
Bad news materializes → short covering → risk assets rebound
This is why some are already shouting that if there’s no rate hike tonight, BTC and ETH will definitely crash.
The real danger in the market often isn’t when everyone is panicking, but when the market has already traded through the panic in advance.
Recently, BTC’s pullback from highs has already reflected some macro pressure. Chasing shorts now can easily backfire when the news is fully priced in.
Currently, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, oil prices, and inflation expectations are all impacting risk assets, especially with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% again. This is more worth watching than simply debating "whether to raise by 25 basis points or not."
The biggest variable tonight is not "whether to raise rates."
It’s whether the market will move in the way everyone imagines.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $ETH Major Drop Cause Analysis
⚠️ Market review, not investment advice, contract risk is extremely high
1. Core Trigger: Collapse of Clear Bill Positive Expectations
Previously, the market speculated in advance on the CLARITY bill, betting on the procedural vote passing, with ETH pricing in regulatory benefits early.
Recently, the predicted market probability dropped from 30% to 18%, with increased opposition from Democratic lawmakers. The market realized the bill's passage difficulty was much greater than expected, cooling positive expectations directly. Funds began to cash out early, which is the most direct emotional cause of this decline.
2. Macro Theme: Fed Rate Cut Expectations Tighten, US Treasury Yields Rebound
Crypto is a high-beta risk asset, extremely sensitive to interest rates.
The market repriced the September Fed meeting: renewed inflation stickiness concerns, lowered rate cut expectations, and rising US Treasury yields. Funds withdrew from high-risk assets, flowing back into US Treasuries and cash, suppressing ETH valuation.
3. Market Funds and Derivatives: Concentrated Long Profit-Taking + Leveraged Chain Liquidations
1. The previous rebound accumulated many profitable longs. Approaching two major events (bill vote + Fed decision), funds chose to reduce positions to hedge and lock in profits.
2. After the range support was broken, a large number of long stop-losses were triggered. Chain liquidations further amplified the decline, commonly known as deleveraging liquidation. The sell-off itself was not huge, but stop-loss orders magnified the drop.
3. Fund rotation occurred: some funds moved from ETH to altcoins. ETH lacked incremental buying support, showing weak resistance during the decline. Over the past 24 hours, total futures turnover across the market climbed to around $214.7B, up roughly 52%, while total open interest slipped about 1.4%. That combination is interesting. It doesn't necessarily mean fresh money is pouring in. It looks more like traders are rapidly closing, reopening, rotating positions, and fighting over short-term direction. 😂 And the leverage cleanup has been brutal. 💥 Around $365M in positions were liquidated over the last 24 hours, with liquidations jumping1. Bitcoin retreats to $77,800, market cautious ahead of two major events
Commentary: CLARITY Act vote and FOMC decision occur within 48 hours, funds choose to deleverage and hedge before events
2. CLARITY Act procedural vote in Senate today requires 60 votes
Commentary: Polymarket's probability of passage has dropped to 17%
3. SEC Chair: Regardless of CLARITY outcome, SEC will advance crypto regulation
Commentary: Executive branch's "two-pronged" strategy is clear; legislative failure does not mean regulatory halt
4. BTC spot ETF sees net outflows for 4 consecutive days, ETH ETF attracts funds against trend
Commentary: Institutional funds clearly shifting from BTC to ETH
5. Total liquidations on the network reach $342 million, shorts were flushed out last night
Commentary: Shorts were forced to cover during last night's rebound, but liquidation scale was moderate without extreme deleveraging
6. Fear and Greed Index rises to 69, returning to "Greed" state
Commentary: Market holds high expectations for CLARITY Act vote; a failure would cause a negative surprise impact
7. Circle's Arc public blockchain launches public mainnet tomorrow
Commentary: Initial validators include traditional financial giants BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, etc.
8. Ethereum Safe wallet attacked, losing about $7.73 million rsETH
Commentary: S again exposes systemic weaknesses in automated strategy contract permission management
9. Bitwise announces liquidation of Dogecoin ETF
Commentary: Closing less than a year after launch, last trading expected on October 14
10. Strategy did not increase BTC holdings for the second consecutive week
Commentary: Repurchased about $139 million STRC preferred shares last week, holdings remain at 845,050 units
11. Morgan Stanley turns hawkish, expects two more Fed rate hikes this year
Commentary: Capital giant continues to generate bearish news
12. Bitwise's BHYP ETF deposits 84,000 HYPE to Coinbase
Commentary: ETF product reducing holdings at HYPE highs
13. West Texas crude oil breaks $103, 10-year US Treasury yield nears 5%
Commentary: Probability of 25bp FOMC rate hike has risen above 85%
14. Bulgaria passes bill granting tax authorities full access to crypto user data
Commentary: Tension between privacy and compliance intensifies
15. Zama opens deposits for 16 Morpho privacy vaults
Commentary: On-chain privacy demand is real
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 $BTC On-chain, Matrixport just sent 1400 BTC to Binance and in return withdrew 10,000 ETH.
Honestly, I stared at this transfer for half a minute. BTC is at 78,000, and someone is exchanging 100 million USD for ETH. It's not that ETH is bad, but... on a night when all the news is about the FOMC and the CLARITY Act, this move is quietly a bit eerie. $BTC $ETH 9.16｜How will the US stock market move tonight? The key is still the Federal Reserve
#AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱
The core variable for the US stock market today is very clear: it's not earnings reports, but tonight's Federal Reserve
Last night, the US stock market was clearly under pressure, with the AI and chip sectors experiencing the most volatility. On Monday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once plunged about 5.9%, and AI-related stocks like Micron were also dragged down; meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back near 5%
The market now has very high expectations for a 25bp rate hike tonight, with CME pricing once exceeding 90%. So the real factor determining the direction of the US stock market tonight is not "whether to raise rates" but whether the Fed will continue to hawkishly signal
If it's just a 25bp hike but the subsequent policy stance is neutral, the market might experience a "bad news priced in" scenario, giving the Nasdaq and tech stocks a chance to rebound
For memory stocks, tonight I am still focusing on MU, SNDK, WDC
The logic isn't bad, but short-term funds have started to worry about a slowdown in AI capital expenditure. Recently, market concerns about the AI industry's "deceleration" have clearly intensified, causing chip stocks to collectively retreat
So brothers, don't bet on the direction prematurely
If Treasury yields fall after the rate hike, high-elasticity memory stocks like MU and SNDK might be the first to recover
But if the 10-year yield continues to hold above 5%, the pressure on tech stocks won't be small
Tonight is not about whether the Fed raises rates, but whether the market will still fear the next move after the hike This isn't about admitting defeat. It's about realizing that after days of violent swings and getting chopped around, protecting your remaining capital—and getting some sleep—is more important than forcing another trade. $ZEC My earlier entry around $1,245 is now hovering near $1,180, and the drawdown has become too uncomfortable to keep staring at. I'm reducing exposure instead of gambling on a late-night reversal. No more watching every candle before bed. If the market wants to shake me out, sSOL's spike to 104.8 today quickly reversed downward; no one dared to follow the 107 move.
Yesterday's low was 98.98, the high reached 102.33, and it closed at 101.97. Today it opened around 102, peaked at 104.83 but didn't break through, bottomed at 98.42, and the current price is about 98.6. The volume ratio is slightly higher than yesterday, but the buying on the rally is not decisive.
Resistance lies between 104.8 and 105.8, with 107 above that. If it breaks below 98.4, it’s likely to test 97.9 first; if that level doesn't hold, the short term could move even lower to find space.
In the short term, watch if the current price can hold at 98.6. If it can't, consider it as still digesting the drop from 107 and avoid chasing at this price. For those already holding, watch if 98.4 to 97.9 can hold as support; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and reconsider if it can't break through 104.8—don't catch a falling knife mid-air. $SOL BTC fell below 76,000, I choose to hold steady on the eve of the rate hike 📉
BTC is currently around 76,800, down more than 3% in 24 hours. Today it dropped from 79,586 all the way down to 75,601, bulls have been thoroughly beaten.
The pressure on the market is clear. Tomorrow's FOMC rate hike probability is 86.5%, Goldman Sachs has already changed its forecast from "hold steady" to "raise by 25 basis points." Oil prices are above $100, inflation expectations remain high. On-chain, a huge whale opened a $52.35 million long position at 78,663 early this morning, now floating a loss of 1.42 million, and has already started cutting ETH and ZEC this afternoon.
From a technical perspective, 76,380 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. There was indeed support around 76,500 during today's session, but repeated testing is not a good sign. The short-term resistance above is at 78,000.
If it were me, I wouldn't make a move now. Opening any position before the rate hike is a gamble, the risk-reward ratio is not favorable. I'll wait for tomorrow's FOMC outcome; if it pulls back to 76,500-77,000 with low volume and stabilizes, I'll lightly try going long with a stop loss below 75,500; if it breaks below 76,380 with high volume, I'll exit and observe. No betting on direction, waiting for the market to give the answer.
For reference only, not investment advice. $BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Brushing away this layer of carbonized black residue, the breakout pattern before my eyes is no different from the escape routes before the collapse of Pompeii two thousand years ago. 🏛️
The self-proclaimed “swing trading master” in the signal group is hysterically urging everyone to go all-in and catch the falling knife, while a crowd of inexperienced traders blindly follow and post their orders. This frenzy mixed with panic is no different from the gamblers desperately melting down inferior silver coins on the eve of the Roman Empire’s collapse. There is nothing new under the sun; human weaknesses have long been repeatedly solidified in the strata of history.
At this moment, $ADA has fallen to the edge of the ruins at 0.2026, with the one-hour RSI deeply trapped in a weak sediment layer at 38.7. Some in the group are crying out in despair, some are playing tricks, while I am only examining the stress limits of the foundation among the rubble.
The lower Bollinger Band at 0.2004 is like an ancient temple’s load-bearing stone beam that has not yet completely collapsed. The short-term oversold accumulation is forming a rebound pulse toward the middle band at 0.2061, a layer of rammed earth. This is not a revival of civilization, just an inevitable rebound during the weathering of relic ruins. 📜
- Target: $ADA 🟢
- Entry: 0.2010 - 0.2035
- TP1: 0.2065
- TP2: 0.2115
- SL: 0.1980
Once the load-bearing stone beam completely breaks, those arrogant blind followers in the group will instantly become burial shards in the next geological era.
#CoinMoveAlert$PROVE touched $0.1904, then lost momentum quickly. At $0.1882 it has slipped under the 5- and 10-hour averages; the small green candle hasn’t reclaimed either.
Bearish idea, derivatives only: Entry $0.1885–$0.1890 if that area rejects price. TP1 $0.1875 | TP2 $0.1863 | TP3 $0.1855. SL $0.1898.
A clean one-hour recovery above $0.1890 would make me drop the short idea. Spot traders can use that reclaim as the first sign of strength.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks $LRC tall wick into $0.009764 did not turn into sustained buying. The one-hour candles have drifted lower, and $0.008847 is the nearby line that needs to hold.
Bearish idea, derivatives only: Entry $0.00895–$0.00905 on a rejected bounce. TP1 $0.008847 | TP2 $0.008627 | TP3 $0.00845. SL $0.00921.
I wouldn’t open the short directly into support. Wait for the bounce or let this one go.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged DOGE touched 0.0861 again, and if it can't break through, it will start to drop. No one dared to follow the wave at 0.095.
Yesterday's low was 0.0820, the high reached 0.0861, and it closed around 0.0836. Today it opened near 0.084, the highest was 0.0840 but didn't break through, the lowest was 0.0807, and the current price is about 0.0818. Volume is still there, but no one is buying on the rally.
Resistance is still between 0.084 and 0.0861 above, and further up is 0.088 to 0.095. If it breaks below 0.0807, it is likely to first see 0.0802; if this level can't hold either, the short term will look for space down to 0.074.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 0.0818 can hold. If it can't hold, consider it still grinding down from 0.095, don't chase at this price now. Those already holding should watch if the support between 0.0807 and 0.0802 holds; if not, reduce some positions. Those looking to buy should wait for a pullback and consider only if it can't break through 0.0861, don't catch a falling knife in mid-air. $DOGE $PHA gave back its push to $0.02857 and is now sitting at $0.02754 support, below all three displayed averages. A tiny bounce isn’t enough to erase that rejection.
Bearish idea, derivatives only: Entry $0.02780–$0.02800 if the rebound fails. TP1 $0.02754 | TP2 $0.02720 | TP3 $0.02700. SL $0.02817.
This is a thin market; size and execution deserve extra care. On spot, I’d look for a reclaim of $0.02784 instead.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged