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Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise, Why Am I Still Holding Short Positions?"
Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, fueling rate cut trades. $BTC surged to 87,000, $ETH reached 2,750. The market is excited, but I continue to hold shorts.
This rally is driven by expectations, not a trend. The 87,000–90,000 range is a dense trap zone; breaking through in one go is difficult. After the good news is priced in, it often becomes an excuse for profit-tmTell the dog trader, I'm not acting on impulse!
After a few days of its pullback, I knew there would be a rebound soon, so when $USELESS dropped to 0.249, I couldn't resist buying more. But it kept falling, and I couldn't hold on, so I ran.
After all, it can keep falling and has a lot of room to drop. If it were $BEAT or $ARB, it would be much better. Beat really struggles to fall below around 0.09 now, and arb is almost impossible to pull back below 0.15. The 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen back to around 4.1%, but the 30-year remains stuck above 5%, so the macro leash is still tight. Nvidia's earnings countdown is on, with AI computing power narratives back in focus; signals of concessions emerged from the second round of US-Iran talks, but core disagreements remain unchanged. External news swings back and forth, yet crypto follows its own script. $ENJ price is moving, but the volume hasn't confirmed it, which is more worth watching than the 24-hour +9.51% change.
I first look at the levels, not guessing the direction. The current price is 0.03259, about 9.17% away from the 1-hour support at 0.0296, and about 25.16% away from resistance at 0.04079. Looking at both sides together is closer to the real risk than just focusing on a single rising or falling candlestick.
The current 1-hour volume is only 0.16 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars; both 1-hour and 4-hour volumes are relatively strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support usually requires the next candlestick to confirm.
There are only two conditions that would make me change my judgment. My observation line is clear: only if it stands back above and holds 0.04079 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 0.0296, then attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.02841. If the upper side continues to be pressured, the 4-hour resistance at 0.04079 is just a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
This is not making excuses after the fact: in the next round, I will continue to verify 0.04079 and 0.0296, recording when conditions are met and reviewing when they fail.
Do you trust the current direction more, or do you think the low volume means this move will be quickly reversed?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.$BTC EQ highs taken ✔️
Now im looking at range low liquidity and that untested area of demand to then long it to new highs.
HTF market structure remains bullish until proven otherwise.[Today's Review: A Painful Lesson of 450,000 U, a Trade Destroyed by "Getting Overconfident"]
I must write down this experience today and engrave it in my bones. Including today's chain of losses, I have accumulated a total loss of 450,000 U during this period. And this astronomical number is entirely caused by my emotional loss of control and getting overconfident. Today, I paid the most expensive tuition fee since entering the circle.
This morning, SOL opened a short at 118 and rebounded all the way to 123. I committed a cardinal sin of traders—adding to a losing position against the trend, trying to average down. As a result, I lost my mind at the highest point and stopped out. Ironically, right after I cut losses, the market started a sharp decline.
Watching the rapidly falling candlesticks, FOMO completely took over. To retaliate against the market and quickly recover, I got totally overconfident and reversed to a large long position at 120.75 with 50x leverage on SOL. The result was another wick; a 1% drop wiped out 56% of the position, forcing me to cut losses again. Along with the related losses on BTC and SNDK, my account suffered a heavy blow.
What pains me the most and is most ironic is: looking back at the market now, the prices of SOL and BTC are both far below my entry prices. I clearly got the macro direction right, but because of high leverage, heavy positions, and uncontrolled emotions, I ended up with a "double kill" blowout loss. The direction was right, but the position sizing was wrong—either way, it’s death.
In the early hours after midnight, I forced myself to calm down and grabbed a short ETH position to recover a bit, but this was just a drop in the bucket compared to the 450,000 U hole.
Never add to a losing position against the trend 2B Rule Judgment
BTC shows a potential 2B signal on the 4H timeframe: after a brief test of the previous low at 83136 followed by a rebound, if it dips again to 83136 and quickly recovers, it forms a 2B buy point. However, if it breaks below 83136 and continues to trade below, it is a true breakout with a target down to 82000. The same applies to ETH's 2666 support; 2B confirmation depends on whether an effective false break can form in the 2660-2670 range.The leader has something to say
The treasury is still buying. Strategy increased holdings by 1,665 BTC at an average price near 85,000. Strive bought 1,107 BTC. BitMine's ETH holdings surpassed 6 million.
The model hasn't changed, relying on financing to buy coins. Common stock, preferred stock, all available tools are used. But with long-term US Treasury yields at 5.6%, financing costs are so high. If coin prices fall or financing windows tighten, this model becomes risky.Capital inflow, narrative layering
Citibank recalibrates crypto coordinates: $BTC is expected to reach $113,000 in the next 12 months, ETH to $3,028, significantly revised upward from the previous $82,000 and $2,240 respectively. The basis is the warming trading activity, easing macro pressure, and renewed net inflows into ETFs, with about $5 billion expected to return within a year.
If the funds truly return, the market may not see a broad-based rally but rather a diffusion along narrative layers. $BTC still sets the tone for liquidity and risk appetite, ETH carries the smart contract ecosystem; on the altcoin side, I focus on DOGE and FIL. DOGE relies on global community consensus, payment imagination, and Meme propagation, showing high elasticity but strong sentiment-driven dynamics. FIL anchors decentralized storage, AI data foundation, on-chain data, and long-term storage/computing power demand, leaning towards infrastructure.
The former is a community asset, the latter a data asset. After large capital inflows, the key is not "what to buy" but observing how funds rotate between these two narratives. Target prices are institutional forecasts, not commitments; altcoin volatility far exceeds BTC, so position sizing and risk control take priority. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 market trend during the National Day holiday:
1. Domestic traders rest, market liquidity decreases, small funds can cause large spikes, liquidation scenarios are prone to occur, high leverage must reduce positions.
2. The market is mainly driven by the flow of funds from US stocks, US bonds, and ETFs, with a focus on overseas macroeconomic data.$BTC finally took profit, after going around in circles, BTC is still the most reliable.
A few days ago, I played with altcoins; ONE kept getting repeatedly stabbed, losing over two thousand; XDP crashed right after entering, losing several hundred again. Watching the K-line every day, my mood fluctuated, and the profits weren't even enough to cover the fees. ONE didn't win once for three consecutive days, so I blacklisted it.
Yesterday BTC dropped to 83123, I held on without selling; today it surged to 85400, finally taking profit. Looking at the closing screenshot, my eyes turned red. This move was steady, the pullback was shallow, the moving averages are bullish, breaking previous highs, and every pullback is an opportunity. No need to guess the intentions of manipulative traders. After all this, BTC is still the most solid.
Plan: After taking profit, stay calm and don't rush to open new positions. If it pulls back to around 84500–84800, consider going long again, targeting 86000. This time remember: only trade BTC, no altcoins.
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF连续流出
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
For personal trading record only, not investment advice.$BTC 📈 The overall low remains structurally weak, with more liquidity building below it. Intraday, we’ve also put in a poor low. We’ve just reached an interesting confluence zone: - Mini-range POC - Yesterday’s selloff GP - Yesterday’s value area high The problem is timing. We’re minutes away from an economic data release that could easily trigger a spike above the current highs. On top of that, plenty of fresh shorts opened into the lows, and we still haven’t seen a meaningful OI reset. So, onRisk of US-Iran escalation rises again, Brent crude returns to $100 Bro, Brent crude has broken $100 again.
Trump said the Iranian nuclear threat disappeared overnight, then turned around and said the peace plan is insufficient and did not rule out resuming military action. The US is negotiating while simultaneously deploying Patriot air defense systems to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Iran is also not backing down, saying they are willing to talk but you are still attacking us during negotiations. The market has shrunk without any momentum, and all the technical indicators are calling for entry. Staring at it for too long really makes you hallucinate. Impatient people have already entered at this position; I still think it's safer to leave some room and watch the show. Shut down the market, turn off the computer, go to the gym to sweat it out, and come back to trade when the market really livens up. There's no need to sit here wasting time for a tiny profit.
$BTC $SOL $SUI 8:30 PM tonight, the US September nonfarm payrolls will be released.
The market expects an increase of 84,000 to 85,000 jobs, significantly cooling down from August's 162,000, with the unemployment rate still at 4.1%. Last week's initial jobless claims were 197,000, below the expected 200,000, indicating layoffs are indeed not many. But hiring is also slowing down, a typical "low hiring, low layoffs" stalemate.Good morning, Investors.
$SNDK sits 25% below its high. Plenty of people call that the top.
Look at the business instead. 84.6% gross margin. Zero debt. Datacenter revenue up 437% year over year. And management just authorized $15.5B in buybacks. When a company buys back its own stock at this pace, it is telling you exactly what it thinks of the price.
Weak hands see a drawdown. We see a cash machine on sale.
Next quarter's guidance → $10.3B to $10.8B in revenue. The story isn't finishe
.🔥 The real challenge is not in judging the direction, but in still trusting your judgment when volatility hits.
Markets never rise in a straight line. The ones most likely to be left behind are not those who misread the trend, but those whose patience is worn down by range-bound fluctuations. Even if you get the big picture right, reducing your position because of a few bearish candles means you can only regret it when the main upward phase starts.
Recently, I have been observing $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $ZEC, $DOGE.
🟠 BTC sets the market anchor, ETH tracks capital inflows, SOL monitors ecosystem heat, ZEC watches privacy narrative resilience, DOGE gauges emotional spillover.
My approach:
Core positions remain steady, satellite positions respond to back-and-forth pulls;
Buy in batches on dips, never use all your bullets at once;
Wait for confirmation on rallies, don’t let FOMO make decisions for me.
ETF subscriptions/redemptions, interest rate paths, and geopolitical news amplify short-term volatility, but trends are not defined by single-day moves.
Learn to survive in the noise first, then you might get answers from the trend.
This is just my personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $SNDK: I lean long, but I'm not buying here. All six perspectives point up. Yet price sits mid-range, right at the edge of premium. My plan is a limit fill on a deeper pullback, about 5–6% below the current print. If it never comes, I don't chase. After the September high, Sandisk slid, then built a run of higher lows. The perp is trading ahead of the cash close after Micron's beat. A gap-fill at tonight's US open is the fill path. Why the zone: - A recent 4h low, the 4h and 12h 200 EMAs, and a 🚀 BTC just pocketed a 4,000-point move — but don’t chase the pump yet.
As expected, the post-NFP volatility triggered a liquidity sweep. That kind of shakeout is pretty normal after major data.
Now the real test comes when the US stock market opens. That’s when we’ll get a clearer signal on whether BTC can hold the move.
If you’re already long, taking some profit off the table first isn’t a bad idea. 🔥
#DailyOrbit $HYPE hype's every drop exceeds the rise in magnitude, and each pullback is very decisive, basically allowing one to guess that the project team and institutions are offloading.Even though I'm bullish, I still hope $OKB drops a bit! As a HODLer, it's really frustrating when it won't go down! My current position is too light, I want to add more but don't want to do it above $120. The current trend and volume both show some signs of topping out, but my gut tells me this might be a bear trap. I really can't think of any group of people who would sell $OKB at $120; instead, people like me who are eager to get in should be the majority. Look at $SOL on the weekly
Then Look at $USDT.D on the weekly
Then stop bitching
4 month move. Likely going to get rinsed here shortly.
Clear the trenches of all the dirt and debris of 2026.$SOL
The short from $124–$125 is already printing.
This is exactly why I didn’t want to chase SOL up here.
Now I’m watching the $101–$104 area for the long.
That zone is the previous range value area and the main volume area before the breakout.
If SOL comes into this POI, takes liquidity and gives a clean reaction, I’ll look to build a long from there.
So the plan is simple:
Short from the top → already playing out.
Long from $101–$104 → what I’m waiting for next. Small retail trader review 📝
BTC surged to 87200, gave a sell signal in 15 minutes, I closed my long position and casually chased a small short.
But I felt conflicted: subjectively still bullish, afraid to short, ignoring the clear signals of daily divergence + key resistance, and eventually couldn't hold the short position.
Later, I reopened a long at 84500. Actually, the reasons I gave myself were just excuses: support exists, need to sweep liquidity above.
Calmly thinking, the essence is just unwillingness—not willing to close the short too early, not willing for the market to move differently than expected, not willing for the drop to be so smooth. It was purely emotional trading, a trade I shouldn't have made.
Plan going forward: wait for a better long opportunity, expect liquidity at 83000 and 82000 to be taken out before considering entry.
If it breaks below 81000 effectively, treat it as a trend change and stop loss immediately.
$BTC #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat😾 The scariest thing is not that it didn't rise, but that others rose and you get anxious meow
$DOGE Don't rush to shout that the familiar market is back meow.
Tonight, Dogecoin rose about 2.4% intraday, but it still fell about 3.5% over the week.
Newcomers think the rebound is good, while those who bought a few days ago might still be waiting to break even. During the same rise, the moods of these two groups are completely different meow.
I will pay attention to one situation: the price has just recovered, but expectations have already run far ahead.
At this time, it is easiest to mistake "finally losing less" for "there must be a big rise ahead." Breaking even is your own account; the market has no obligation to cooperate meow.
$PEPE I want to talk about that feeling of "buy a little and get a lot of coins" meow.
Lots of zeros after the decimal point look cheap, and holding a large quantity does not make profit easier.
If the reason for placing an order is just because others are showing profits and you feel you must buy now or you'll miss out, then you haven't really thought through why you are optimistic meow.
Especially don't expect to be as calm chasing after others who bought at a low price and are now relaxed.
$SUI tends to make people mix up long-term optimism with short-term impatience meow.
If before buying you said you were willing to wait a few months, but after two days with no movement you want to switch to coins that rise faster, what you really want might just be to see profits immediately.
I prefer to think this through first meow: how long can you really accept waiting?
Otherwise, switching back and forth, always complaining that what you hold is slow, and always attracted by others' excitement.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% I have noticed a phenomenon: most retail investors dislike investing in well-known large companies and instead prefer to dig into unknown small companies. Their logic is that large companies already have huge revenue scales and market caps, so how much room is left for growth? Small companies are different; if they hit the right trend and explode, it can be huge. But why can't large companies continue to grow? Why can't their stock prices surge? And what is the actual probability of small companies exploding? Moreover, leading monopolistic large companies, even if they don't grow rapidly, have much stronger risk resistance and investment returns (dividends) than the vast majority of small companies. I used to think this way and missed out on many oligopolistic large companies (I often reflect on why I had biases against some US giants like Apple and Microsoft).
"Stick to the orthodox and innovate"—when I was young, I didn't understand this saying, but now I increasingly grasp its meaning: first, secure enough positions in high-certainty, good companies, then allocate a small portion of your portfolio to bet on low-probability, high-reward small companies. This is the right path; never always try to take the wrong path.Weak consolidation, RSI indicator is low, resistance exists at 2665 above. If the market dips to 2620, watch for a reversal opportunity. Focus on the support validity at this level; if broken, expect further decline. Be sure to manage risk, set stop-losses, as the market is volatile and sudden spike reversals may occur at any time. $ETH I guess a lot of people were stunned by the big sell-off in Bitcoin last night, dropping directly from 87,200 to 83,800. Why do I say many were confused? The non-farm payrolls clearly came in cold, with 29,000 jobs added and a 4.2% unemployment rate. Any of these numbers should have caused a sharp rise, but the market's interpretation was that the good news was already priced in and turned bearish. I laughed because have you noticed that any reasonable market interpretation is always made after the price action happens, just to fit the market movement? Just like with the rate hikes before, it should have crashed, but the market went up, so they gave you an explanation that the bad news was already priced in and turned bullish. So a friend of mine once said that any explanation seems to make sense and there is always some narrative that fits the market. If tonight's non-farm payrolls cause a continuous surge, you would interpret it as poor employment data and a reduced Fed rate hike expectation causing the rally, and you wouldn't hear the "good news priced in turned bearish" explanation. So it still comes back to the strategy I mentioned before, which is the most stable to operate with, and that strategy includes a price structure component. From the price structure perspective, a drop near the previous high is acceptable. As for whether it will continue to fall later, we will see as it goes. As long as the big players want to move the market in a certain direction, the market will follow, regardless of consensus mechanisms or anything else — it doesn't matter. Any large holder or institution selling can change the short-term market state or trend, which will gradually affect the long-term trend. Everyone trading must make sure to set stop losses. I don't know if you made money last night, but I was fully invested. Of course, it's only a floating profit because I haven't closed my positions. I'm holding them expecting a drop to 70,000-74,000. Either I make 17,000-13,000 points, or I just don't take the current 3,000+ points profit and have set a breakeven stop loss.86000 Short Position Pressed: A Contrarian's Monologue
To be honest, I'm scared too. The trend is so strong, everyone is shouting about breaking 90,000, yet I pressed short at 86000.
It's not stubbornness, it's just that this level makes me uncomfortable:
• 86000 is a round number resistance, where emotions easily get overheated. Round number levels have always been a meat grinder for bulls and bears; chasing highs en masse is often a good time for distribution.
• Funding rates are scorching hot, bulls are too crowded. Positive and rising funding rates indicate leveraged longs are clustered; a pullback can easily trigger a chain stampede.
• The rise has been too smooth, like looking for the last buyer to take the bag. Without a decent pullback, it always feels uneasy.
• I'm not guessing the top, I'm just testing the short. Stop loss is clear: 87777, if broken, I admit I'm wrong. Position is light, target first looks at 82000, break below that and look at 78000. If wrong, take the loss, no holding on, no stubbornness.
You can call me a contrarian, but trading isn't about following the crowd. When bulls are partying wildly, someone has to stay calm.
I'm shorting greed, not BTC.
The above is only my personal trading record and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 📈 The overall low remains structurally weak, with more liquidity building below it. Intraday, we’ve also put in a poor low. We’ve just reached an interesting confluence zone: - Mini-range POC - Yesterday’s selloff GP - Yesterday’s value area high The problem is timing. We’re minutes away from an economic data release that could easily trigger a spike above the current highs. On top of that, plenty of fresh shorts opened into the lows, and we still haven’t seen a meaningful OI reset. So, on$BTC This rally feels like closing the door on the bears; shorts haven't even recovered, and the price has surged from the 60,000 range to above 80,000. The chasing volume seems crowded, but the repeated failure to break 80,000 actually indicates stronger support orders below. On the macro side, Goldman Sachs has pushed back rate hike concerns from October to December, effectively giving risk assets an extra two months of buffer. If BTC can hold steady or even hit new highs, altcoin rotation is very likely to heat up.
However, the capital is uneven. In spot ETFs, BTC continues to attract funds, while ETH is seeing outflows; smart money is still clustering around the mainstay. This causes more division among altcoins: on one side, the ecosystem narrative is soaring, on the other, leveraged shorts are repeatedly crushed. I hold a $SOL perpetual 3x short, entered at 107.78, marked at 119.31, with a floating loss of 32%—a live case study.
Before the main trend reverses, don't mistake going against the trend for bravery. If the macro window materializes and BTC stabilizes, altcoins will have the soil to go wild; coin selection should consider ETF expectations and real ecosystem fundamentals. Retail investors should avoid holding losing positions, reduce leverage, save ammunition, and wait for certainty. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 "BTC in the Second Half of the Year: Strength Remains, Fluctuations Are Just a Pause"
BTC is still expected to be strong in the second half of the year, with short-term narrow fluctuations; don't mistake pullbacks for trend reversals.
The 82,000 mentioned a few days ago is a reference for long liquidation, not a stop-loss level — meaning don't have a position so heavy that it gets liquidated at that level. In fact, the two dips both stopped above 82,500, and my average entry price is 84,000. This morning I judged the maximum pullback to be 83,000, but now the probability seems even smaller, and the fluctuation range may shift upward to around 84,000.
When 90,000 will be broken is uncertain. But even if it surges past, it likely won't hold above it in one go, which would instead provide a shorting opportunity.
At this stage, those with less capital should only wait for pullbacks to go long, and avoid shorting. Altcoins require even more caution, especially those closely correlated with BTC; reduce or close positions as needed; consider shorting altcoins only after BTC breaks 90,000, when opportunities become more stable.
In short: the main direction is bullish, look for long opportunities during fluctuations, do not chase highs, and do not short against the trend.
$BTC #美股探索代币化与全天候交易 #特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% "ZEC short position, finally vindicated"
This round with ZEC, I entered a 50x short at 1692.50 and held all the way until now. Finally, I got it right once.
The most regrettable thing is that 85% of the position has already been closed. But I continue to hold the rest.
Once the 1300 support breaks, the trend completely changes. There's a vacuum below, and above are all trapped longs chasing the price. The manipulative whales won’t pump it up to help them get out of their positions. Plus, with the non-farm payroll on October 2 and the rate hike meeting at the end of October, macro pressures keep piling on. For altcoins like ZEC, once the funds withdraw, it won’t recover in just a few days.
So I firmly hold the short position. Not heavily leveraged, with take-profit set. This round looks toward 700, short term first aiming below 1300.
No milk tea tonight, going straight for hotpot to celebrate. The bears finally get to breathe a sigh of relief.
$BTC $SOL #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 What oracle fears most is not just errors, but also long periods without updates.
Even if a price oracle does not submit incorrect numbers, if it stops updating, the contract may process the new market using old prices. During rapid $ETH fluctuations, quotes from ten minutes ago can cause collateralization ratios and actual risk to become seriously misaligned. Applications therefore need to check timestamps, heartbeat intervals, and price change thresholds; they cannot simply continue execution upon seeing a correctly formatted number. If data is expired, the system can pause new borrowing, restrict liquidations, or switch to backup sources, but each response has a cost: pausing protects the protocol but may prevent normal users from operating; continuing operation maintains availability but amplifies pricing errors. Oracle security is a balance between correctness and availability; there is no completely free solution. When holding $ETH and participating in DeFi, besides monitoring collateralization ratios, one must also understand what the protocol will do when price feeds go silent. The real risk often arises from data silence rather than obvious error messages on the screen.
After data recovery, the protocol must also decide how to reopen functions to avoid a surge of accumulated operations during the pause. Recovery design is as important as fault detection. When old prices resume updating, jump limits are especially critical.$BTC
If you are doing some leverage & intra trades like me
Your plan should be simple
82k holds then its in
83k to 87k range trades
If we break 89k with high VOL no more downsides
If 82k breaks then you will see H&S pattern to 75k ranges
FOR LONG TERM HOLDERS JUST HOLD💚0.0712 false breakout? I refuse to believe it, the 15x short position is already face-liquidated!
$SAND is insanely volatile this round.
From 0.043 straight up to 0.0712, a big bullish candle blew up the sentiment, the whole network shouting: breakout! Takeoff! But 0.07 didn’t hold, then it crashed back to 0.063. Can it really be this strong? I don’t buy it.
At 0.0633, 15x short, going in directly.
Now marked at 0.064, floating loss of 600U, forced liquidation at 0.0656, dancing on the edge. Give up? No way. I’m betting it’s a fake breakout, betting that once the chasing longs loosen up, 0.062 and 0.060 will break like paper.
On the 1-hour chart, 0.064 is repeatedly resisted, there’s a rebound but the momentum is gone. If the manipulator is really strong, stand above 0.064, eat through 0.065, and rush to 0.07 to blow me up. Come on. If it can’t hold, don’t pretend, just crash down.
$ZEC also dropped from 1695 to around 1367, red is red but no clear direction.
$CT is even more direct, falling from 0.6365 to 0.52, with rebounds suppressed wave after wave.
Recently it’s all the same: strong pump, if it can’t hold, it crashes fast.
BTC, ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, the heat is cooling down. When the wind changes, high leverage gets wiped out first.
My position is right on the edge of forced liquidation, just showing my position, don’t copy this trade.
Let the candlesticks speak. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $AAVE continues to rally strongly. I took some profit at $160 when I felt like it was starting to turn around. However, after dropping to $158, it bounced back up again.
Greed kicked in, and with the indicators and overall information still favoring further upside, I decided to enter another position. I usually try to avoid chasing trades like this, so I’m keeping the position size very small.#Bitcoin 资金换手，IBIT依旧是ETF资金的中流砥柱！ 周四的ETF数据更新，恢复净流出状态，单日净流入1.027亿，其中IBTI单日净流入1.956亿，其余ETF机构合计净流出0.929亿 通过这项数据可以看出，周四市场并非全面回归乐观，而是IBIT成为资金的中流砥柱支撑市场，而这也再次打破周三的单日净流入，回归净流入状态。 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 如果后续ETF资金持续净流入，意味着周三的净流出就是一次资金换手，当期阶段算是机构用户的强劲净流入阶段 接下来如果周五的ETF数据净流入强劲在2-3亿之间，且净流入机构从IBIT扩散，将会进一步验证机构用户净流入，周三是资金换手的结论 加密市场数据对比10月1日： 占比上 #BTC 占据增长的主导地位，意味着目前加密市场情绪还是处于谨慎阶段 交易量增加，今天的价格上涨依旧迎来不少换手，短期盘面震荡区域突破难度不低，需要消化完足够的抛压之后企稳才能谈突破 资金方面，总量增加13亿，其中主流自己USDT净流入2.34亿，反观USDC 净流出1.39亿，美区交易者情绪并不乐观，且注意，本周稳定币交易量大The green-haired trader also rode the roller coaster
$ETH long position opened at an average price of 2,702.85 and closed at 2,687.77, with the price dropping. With 100x leverage, this 80 ETH position ultimately lost -1,327.69 USDT, a return of -61.40%. The position was held from 01:37 to 05:43, representing a hold-and-cut-loss exit. 在家闲到发慌，我又手痒开仓了，结果五分钟就被强制平掉。 你有没有过那种，明明说好休息两天，却忍不住又点开交易页面的时刻？ 本来打算开全仓，手指一滑变成分批建仓，等反应过来已经来不及了。平仓提示弹出来的那一下，心是空的。不是因为亏多少，而是那种"我明明知道该怎么做，却还是做错了"的无力感。现在换成全仓 $ETH，跟自己说至少拿到 200u 再走，不然太亏了。 这件事真正让我在意的，不是那五分钟，而是它暴露出来的东西。很多人以为自己在做交易，其实是在处理情绪。开仓太急、方向没看清、仓位结构搞混，这些都不是技术问题，是节奏问题。而节奏一乱，后面所有判断都会被情绪绑架，包括"我要长期持有"这句话，很可能只是不想承认失败的借口。 从市场角度看，$ETH 现在的处境挺微妙的。表面上看，大盘情绪不差，BTC 撑着，山寨偶尔冒头，感觉随时有机会。但真实承接呢？量能没有明显跟上，板块轮动也偏快，热点持续不了两天就换。这种环境下，最容易被套的不是看错方向的人，而是仓位管理没做好、又急着回本的人。全仓 $ETH 这个动作本身不算错，但如果动机是"我不想认亏"，那它就从策略变成了赌气。 偏多的逻辑也存在。ETOld whales exit, who is holding down the ETH rebound?
On-chain data doesn't lie.
Since last week, ETH whales have been continuously offloading, and in the past two days, they've accelerated — even ancient addresses from the ICO era have started clearing out. Lookonchain data shows that in just two days, a certain whale dumped 19,000 ETH, cashing out about $47 million.
The sparks of the rebound have been doused coldly by these veteran players.
Interestingly, the buyers are no ordinary players. On October 1, a massive transfer of 200,000 ETH, worth about $850 million, flowed into Deribit. Is this a hedge? Or is someone genuinely bullish with real money? The answer remains unclear, but at least it shows that bulls and bears are fiercely exchanging positions at this level.
Old whales choosing to take profits is their freedom. But the market never stops moving just because someone leaves.
In a volatile market, spot is the anchor, leverage is the blade. Don't bet on direction with borrowed money, don't fantasize about a one-sided surge when whales are offloading. Those who survive in this market are never the most aggressive.
Hold your spot, wait for the wind. $BTC $ETH
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat #US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved #US September nonfarm payrolls increase by only 29,000, unemployment rate rises to 4.2%
After nearly 9 consecutive days of net inflows totaling about $3.1 billion, the US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced two consecutive days of net outflows starting September 30, totaling $173 million. The Ethereum spot ETF shifted earlier, with three consecutive days of net outflows, including $55.4 million outflow on October 1 alone. Previously, there was a structural divergence between BTC and ETH, with funds rotating from ETH to BTC; now both asset types are bleeding simultaneously, with institutions reducing positions in sync.
The Coinbase report also points to the same trend. BTC's recent profit-taking scale has risen to a yearly high, and spot demand has clearly slowed. The shift from strong to weak buying is not an isolated phenomenon but a reflection of the overall cooling of capital heat.
This clearly suppresses the short-term trend. BTC is currently up 2.35%, but ETF funds are withdrawing, creating a divergence between price and capital flow. The strong resistance zone is between 85,000 and 86,000; if outflows continue, the difficulty of breaking through will only increase. The short-term support is at 82,000; if broken, the next target is 81,000.
Nonfarm payroll data will be released tonight; large funds will not enter the market lightly before the data is out. If nonfarm data is weak and rate hike expectations cool, ETF funds may flow back, and BTC still has a chance to test higher; if nonfarm data exceeds expectations, combined with interest rate pressure and capital outflows, the probability of a pullback will significantly increase $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC got the “good” jobs data — and still dumped. 👀
Non-farm payrolls came in weak, but instead of continuing higher, BTC spiked to $87,239 before dropping back to around $84,577.
Classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”
The bullish news was already priced in. Once the data landed, traders used the pump to take profits.
Now the key levels are simple:
🔹 $84,400 — first support
🔹 Hold it → BTC could rebound toward $86K–$87K
🔹 Lose it → $82K–$83K becomes the next major zone
#DailyOrbit September nonfarm payrolls completely underperformed, BTC gets a breather window
The nonfarm data is out, and it's hard to sum up in a few words. Only 29,000 jobs were added in September, while the market expected 85,000, a huge miss. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, higher than the expected 4.1%. Even worse, previous values were revised down — August was cut from 162,000 to 133,000, and July was changed to negative growth, totaling 60,000 fewer jobs over two months. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, both below expectations.
All four indicators underperformed, showing the labor market is truly cooling down.
For BTC, this data is a solid positive. Expectations for rate hikes have further declined; the probability of a rate hike in October had already dropped to about 27%, and now it might be even lower. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are under pressure, easing stress on risk assets. BTC has already risen 2.5%, surging to around 86,900, as the market trades this logic.
But don’t celebrate too early. Poor employment data could also trigger recession fears, and if U.S. stocks plunge, BTC will be dragged down in the short term. Moreover, the Federal Reserve may not pivot based on a single data point; inflation remains above 3%, and officials will need to see more.
In the short term, BTC faces resistance between 87,000 and 87,500, with support at 85,000. Volatility will increase after the data release, so don’t chase highs; wait for a pullback confirmation before considering entry. The direction hasn’t fully reversed yet, just given a chance to catch a breath.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #NEAR ecosystem protocol attacked causing nearly 10% drop in coin price NEAR ETF just launched, and the ecosystem project already had a security incident. NEAR Intents exploited a vulnerability, resulting in about $3.8 million in losses. The team quickly fixed it and promised full compensation, but the market sold first, NEAR dropped nearly 10%, losing the $5 mark.
Key point: No redemption wave seen on the ETF side. Net inflow of $57.7 million in the three days before listing, allocated funds not withdrawn; NRR can still stake NEAR to earn yield, still attractive to institutions.
But don’t rush to bottom-fish. First, the incident was in the ecosystem cross-chain module, the underlying network was unharmed but risk premium increased. Second, non-farm payrolls are approaching, Bitcoin’s direction is unclear. Third, long-term US Treasury yields remain above 5.6%, pressuring risk assets.
I’m not holding for now. If NEAR retests 4.5 and stabilizes, then observe; Bitcoin long positions at 82800 and 83000 have been taken profit, waiting for non-farm to find new entry points. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🚀 SpaceX launches successfully… now comes the real test.
A successful launch could push $SPCX higher in the short term, but I wouldn’t rush to chase the pump.
The launch may already be priced in. We could see a classic “good news → spike → sell-off” move.
The real catalyst is what comes next:
🔹 New orders
🔹 Starlink progress
🔹 Fresh business developments
If those appear, the move could have more fuel. If not, a sharp pump may become an exit opportunity.
#DailyOrbit #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The "real cooling" and "false noise" behind the 29,000 increase
Nonfarm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a clear cooling in the job market. Breaking it down, half is real cooling: recruitment shrank in finance, business services, and government sectors; companies controlled costs but did not conduct large-scale layoffs, and initial jobless claims remain low; healthcare, construction, and manufacturing still saw growth, showing "hiring less without layoffs." Wages rose only 0.1%, far below expectations, easing wage inflation pressure; revisions to the previous two months' data also confirm that employment was overestimated.
The other half is noise: the Labor Day calendar effect caused the seasonal adjustment model to suppress the September reading, which may be revised next month; expiration of immigrant work permits led some workers to exit the statistics, creating a one-time drag, not a fundamental collapse.
For the Federal Reserve, this report basically extinguishes the idea of a rate hike in October, shortening the expected duration of high interest rates. But an unemployment rate of 4.2% is not high, inflation is not fully tamed, so policy is more likely to pause rate hikes rather than cut rates immediately.
On the asset side, short-term strong positive for risk assets. Cooling rate hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields fall, the dollar weakens, benefiting BTC, ETH, U.S. stocks, and gold. BTC has ETF funds as a floor, making the rebound more stable; ETH is more elastic, and even with slight ETF outflows earlier, macro positives may still drive its gains beyond BTC. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Everyone is asking me: Bitcoin dropped directly from 87238 to 84720, is the bull market already over?
Da Mo gives a direct conclusion: Don't panic, this move is a standard script — the non-farm payroll good news has been realized, a rally followed by a pullback, along with a deep shakeout.
It's not a daily trend reversal, just a short-term rapid rise, the market is pausing to retrace and gather strength, just like tying shoelaces.
The logic is simple: Non-farm data only added 29,000 jobs, the market first collectively surged, pulling Bitcoin directly to 87200. But once it approached the previous high of 87400, it was like hitting the top of a pyramid, getting slammed down hard at the slightest touch.
Plus, the 10-year US Treasury yield first fell then rose, standing back above 5.26%, so the high interest rate pressure has not eased at all. Meanwhile, the 15-minute and 1-hour levels are seriously overbought, and after the price broke below 86000, long stop-losses were triggered one after another, naturally causing a stampede.
Here are three support levels for everyone to strictly follow:
1. First level: 84400—84700, short-term support, only suitable for light trial positions, do not heavily catch the falling knife;
2. Second level: 83800—84100, previous breakout platform, this position is better for low long positions with a more stable risk-reward ratio;
3. Third level: 82500—83200, mid-term strong support. As long as 82500 is not effectively broken, the overall structure of this rally is intact.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Follow Da Mo, trade without pitfalls!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Planning to sleep,
but still can't help checking the market
$BTC and $ETH , $ZEC
Feeling the exhaustion of the rise,
Tomorrow morning, see if there's a chance to go long.
After taking profit from long positions this morning and closing out,
I haven't opened any new positions,
The market surged all day,
Been hesitating all day.
Compared to before,
My mindset has improved a little,
No revenge shorting,
Otherwise, profits might have been lost,
Maybe not enough yet.
Learning slowly!
#DailyOrbit $ONE and others are on the top gainers list, not because of chasing the rise, but because with attention comes the willingness of funds to push the price up