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The 500u challenge to 10,000u, the pullback from yesterday has already been earned back, currently over 900u! The crazy surge of BTC and ETH yesterday and the positive non-farm payroll data were all scripted! But why were BTC and ETH suppressed without breaking the previous highs? I personally believe it was profit-taking after the positive news was realized. Also, the most important and noteworthy point is that after the non-farm payroll data was released, US Treasury yields first fell, then rose again. Plus, the Middle East conflict escalated again. So I took a short position. I want to say that besides paying attention to the non-farm payroll data, we also need to watch whether US Treasury yields rise. This is the key factor affecting the bulls and bears of BTC and ETH. I closed my short position on ZEC yesterday. Holding short positions on BTC and ETH, waiting for Monday's situation to decide whether to close them!Woke up and immediately saw that Blast, which once made the points gameplay very popular, announced it is ceasing operations.
For a moment, it brought back so many memories. It used to be a top project, but because it often delayed things, it became both annoying and dragged on.
I once hoped to make big money from this project.
Because when I participated, ETH was only 2200, and by the time I could withdraw, it had surged past 4000.
It's really a pity that it all ended in a mess.Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 alongside a rising unemployment rate, causing the macro balance to tilt instantly. The most direct market split lies in the fact that the rate cut bets, which should have boosted valuations, instead saw risk assets collectively face resistance after initial gains. $BTC hit 87,220 before quickly encountering selling pressure and falling back to around 84,388, engaging in fierce contention near the EMA200; the safe-haven $XAU also slid from a high of 4228 down to 4145, while crude oil $BZ bucked the trend, rallying past 104.
US stocks showed relative restraint, with the Dow slightly pulling back and the Nasdaq barely holding its ground. This cross-market divergence sends a clear signal: capital is shifting rapidly from purely speculating on liquidity easing to defensively pricing in an economic growth slowdown.
When the cooling of employment data exceeds the buffer zone, macro funds’ expectations for lower risk-free rates are overshadowed by substantive demand concerns. Traders rushing to exit risk appetite amid liquidity stampede fears have imposed the first round of repricing pressure on crypto assets’ high beta characteristics.
In the short term, the market’s battle focus remains on $BTC’s ability to hold support at 83,186. If risk-off sentiment in US stocks and commodity markets spreads further, the crypto market may need more time to digest the valuation reappraisal brought by the macro slowdown.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The US nonfarm payrolls for September were a huge surprise, with only 29,000 new jobs added, far below the market expectation of 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. At the same time, employment data for the previous two months were revised downward, clearly signaling a cooling labor market.
Personal view
This data directly crushed the market's bet on the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates. US Treasury yields quickly fell, bringing short-term benefits to risk assets like BTC and gold. The market logic is simple: weaker employment reduces the necessity for rate hikes, easing fears about high interest rates.
But there is a trap here: weak employment does not mean an immediate rate cut. Inflation data has not fully declined yet, and the Fed will remain cautious, not shifting to easing based on just one nonfarm report. The short-term rebound is driven by sentiment, not a trend reversal.
In terms of operations, do not chase the highs directly. The nonfarm market is highly volatile, and short-term gains are easily followed by rapid declines. Contracts must strictly control leverage and set stop losses. Next, focus on the PCE inflation data, which is the indicator the Fed truly cares about.Brothers, my account crashed badly today, hands shaking.
$CAP: The unlucky one caught chasing highs. 20X long position, opened at 0.08210, now 0.07352, down 21%. Doubled down yesterday, today dropped 12 points, set stop loss at 0.068, will accept loss if it breaks below.
$PONS: Tried to bottom-fish halfway down the slope. 20X long position, opened at 0.5530, now 0.4461, down 38%. It has been steadily falling from 0.988, insiders are still selling, if it drops further, liquidation is coming, panicking.
$2Z: The manipulator who fell back to the starting point in three days. 20X long position, opened at 0.06180, now 0.04515, down 54%, about to liquidate. Rose for a week, fell for three days, can’t even look at the account anymore.
All three lost over 700 U, chasing new coins at highs is a death sentence. CAP stopped out, PONS hoping for a rebound, 2Z leaving it to fate. Lights off, eating noodles, brothers don’t get carried away.
#NewCoinCrash #CAP #PONS #2Z #LiveTradingDiary #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
US nonfarm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, below the expected 90,000; unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, wages also weakened, and August data was revised down — the labor market clearly cooling down.
How does the market interpret this?
👉 The probability of the Fed raising rates in October collapsed, traders shifted to "pause in October, reassess in December."
👉 US Treasury yields fell, US stock futures rallied, the dollar weakened, and risk assets breathed a sigh of relief.
👉 BTC briefly surged to 87,000, gold strengthened simultaneously, and the "digital gold" narrative is back.
But don’t get carried away:
Weak nonfarm payrolls ≠ automatic start of a bull market.
The current logic is "recession expectations + slowing rate hikes," not "liquidity flooding the market."
CPI hasn’t passed yet, December rate hike is still uncertain, and macro reversals can happen anytime.
The biggest traps for retail investors:
When data is bad, they think "all in on BTC/ETH is safe";
When data is good, they get scared and sell at a loss.
True experts focus on:
• Whether rate hike expectations continue to decline
• Whether US stock risk appetite can be sustained
• Whether BTC can hold key levels and if ETH will follow
• Whether exchange balances/stablecoin inflows are backed by real money
In short:
The nonfarm surprise is a "macro tailwind" for crypto, not a "blind buy pass."The SUI 1H chart on confirms price action respecting a horizontal consolidation rectangle around the dynamic MA100. An aggressive upward push into the $1.19–$1.20 ceiling on massive anomalous volume failed to produce a breakout, confirming seller absorption of demand. The preferred strategy is to enter a Short position near $1.182–$1.185 with a stop-loss parameter above $1.2093, targeting the lower range support shelf at $1.0979 for an asymmetric risk-to-reward setup. $SUI #USIranOilTensions The macro news is somewhat positive, and the technical side is showing short-term volatility. Last night was mainly about deleveraging; after high-level profit-taking was released, funds were reabsorbed. The non-farm payroll data was clearly weak, which in turn reduced the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. In the medium term, this is still somewhat positive for BTC. Holding steady means a consolidation phase, with opportunities ahead to retest previous highs; if both these levels are broken, then be wary of a deeper technical correction. Now is not the time to panic sell on a big drop, nor to chase heavily on a rebound. $BTC $ETH #BTCETHETFOutflows
I'm watching $ETH around $2,680 after a strong move from the $2,358 low toward $2,807. Price is now consolidating near $2,700, while the MA20 sits around $2,638, giving the structure some support. I'd like to see ETH reclaim $2,700–$2,750 with momentum for another push higher. If support fails, $2,638 becomes an important level to watch. For now, I'm waiting for confirmation. The clamp bites the ascending aorta, the heart is still beating—but the real killer is never the incision, it's the silent plaque in the coronary artery. Nvidia added $150 billion to its buyback authorization, raising the remaining quota to $235 billion. This is not a shot in the arm; it's like pressing an ice pack directly on the heart's apex.
From a hemodynamic perspective, these numbers look great. Free cash flow was 70 billion in the first half of the year, buyback spending about 40 billion, cardiac output abundant, ejection fraction so good that the family signed off. But surgeons don’t step down without looking at the ejection fraction; we need to look at the coronary angiography. Buybacks are positive inotropes—they make the myocardium contract more forcefully but won’t open a narrowed vessel by even a millimeter. The real lesion lies on the demand side: computing power capital expenditure keeps climbing, like afterload tightening inch by inch. The left ventricle can hypertrophy during compensation, but once oxygen supply can’t keep up with demand, myocardial stunning can occur without warning.
The remaining $235 billion quota is equivalent to installing an extracorporeal circulation backup pump in the heart. The problem is, the backup pump’s power source comes from free cash flow, and the perfusion pressure of free cash flow depends on whether terminal demand continues. If computing power orders are a stable sinus rhythm, buybacks are reasonable postoperative anticoagulation; if orders are just a brief sinus rhythm after electrical cardioversion, then this huge authorization is like placing a defibrillator on already ischemic myocardium—each shock expands the infarct area.
Look at the linkage with the memory token target. Storage chips are the His bundle in the heart’s conduction system. No matter how strong the computing power, if the His bundle is blocked by supply-demand imbalance, the ventricles can only rely on their own escape rhythm, with irregular rhythm, and price mapping naturally becomes unstable. The more aggressive the upstream capital expenditure, the heavier the load on the conduction bundle. What looks like a regular waveform may just be a disguise for premature ventricular contractions.
Extending the time window to fiscal 2028, this is a long-term monitoring curve. Buyback authorization is not a cure; it’s postoperative pain relief. Pain relief can mask pain but cannot hide the continuous rise in myocardial enzyme levels. What really needs monitoring are the three bridge vessels: free cash flow, capital expenditure return rate, and terminal demand. If any one of these shows turbulence, the distal myocardium starts to cool.
When the spotlight shines on the $235 billion quota, what I see is not a hemostatic clamp but a guidewire pointing to the coronary artery. Whether the myocardium will infarct again does not depend on the moment the buyback is signed but on whether the blood flow can get there on its own. #nvidia150bbuyback$LITE LITE (Lumentum): Leading AI Optical Device Manufacturer, Main Uptrend Window Opens
Lumentum (LITE), as a leader in high-end optical chips, deeply benefits from the AI computing power interconnection and the major upgrade cycle of submarine optical cables, forming an industry chain synergy with Ciena (CIEN). The demand for 800G/1.6T high-speed optical devices continues to be released.
From a wave perspective, the daily-level Wave 2 correction has ended, and it has now entered the Wave 3-1 main uptrend. Operational advice: Buy on a pullback to stabilize around $1002 to establish a base position; if support holds, you can add to your position; the first target is $1236. If the closing price effectively breaks below $1002, it indicates the wave count is invalid, and a decisive stop loss should be executed.
Compared to the storage industry’s overcapacity, the optical module sector shows stronger demand resilience. However, the target’s valuation is relatively high, the US AI stock sector is highly volatile, and potential risks include cloud providers’ capital expenditure contraction and industry price competition. Wave theory is only a probabilistic technical projection, and wave patterns may deform.
⚠️ Special Reminder: The US stock market is highly volatile, with daily price swings possibly exceeding expectations. This article is only an objective analysis of fundamentals and technicals and does not constitute any investment advice.At that time, many bloggers were farming the blast developed by Lutie, depositing to earn points, and exchanging points for airdrops. I didn't participate then; it seemed like you had to recruit others, and I hate recruiting. I was farming zksync and starknet, both L2s. Except for recently when arb used rh to pay its profits and pumped the price, other L2s have been declining steadily to zero.
I received airdrops from arb, zks, and strk, but overall only made a little profit because I not only didn't sell, I also heavily bought into arb, op, and strk, only selling zks. In the end, under the L2 narrative, the so-called leveraged Ethereum beta, I lost a lot of money. From now on, I will never heavily invest in altcoins again, no matter how wildly someone hypes them. Position management and risk control must always come first.
Blast is also going to shut down; the fees earned are not enough to cover the chain's maintenance costs. I think besides it, a bunch of L2s that followed the trend will also inevitably face this shutdown outcome. There are too many new concepts and narratives in the crypto world, but the vast majority cannot withstand the test of time. Sigh, let's proceed with caution.$DOGE DOGE is currently around $0.091 to $0.093, after reaching a 24-hour high of $0.0979 and then clearly pulling back, showing a short-term pattern of rising and falling. In the mid-term, since the rebound in late September, it has been consolidating in the $0.090 to $0.098 range, with resistance clearly at $0.097 to $0.098, and volume has not yet confirmed a breakout. The key resistance above is $0.0979 to $0.0997; only a volume-backed recovery can challenge the $0.10 to $0.105 range. On the downside, support is first seen at $0.090 to $0.0903; if broken, it may retest $0.085 to $0.087. The current trend is biased toward range-bound oscillation and recovery. In the short term, it is better to observe whether $0.090 can hold and avoid chasing highs.A comparative data point: Bitcoin officially "outperformed" gold this year — rising 66% relative to gold since March.
What’s worth pondering here is that it challenges a popular narrative from the past half year:
Against the backdrop of inflation concerns, geopolitical conflicts, and "debt monetization," gold has continuously hit record highs and has been widely regarded as "the best safe-haven asset of this cycle," while Bitcoin’s performance has often been compared to gold and labeled as having "lost its safe-haven attribute."
But if we pull the time window back to since March, the conclusion reverses: BTC has risen 66% relative to gold.
This reminds us of one thing — the judgment of "who performed better" is extremely sensitive to "which day you start counting from."
The same asset, viewed from different starting points, can tell completely opposite stories.
Gold’s strength is a fact, BTC outperforming gold is also a fact; the contradiction lies only in the day you start counting from.
What’s even more worth remembering is a caution in thinking:
The narrative "gold completely beats Bitcoin" has a market because it fits many people’s existing expectations.
And the way to test it is simple — change the time windows and see if the conclusion still holds.
A conclusion that only holds true from a specific starting point is not a rule, but selective storytelling.Oil tanker hit, $ETH doesn't fall but supports: holding firm at 2581 aiming for 2708
Even with the oil tanker hit, $ETH's resistance impresses me! An oil tanker on the port side in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by a projectile; UKMTO reported crew safety.
$ETH currently at 2681.46, 24h -0.735%, I'm directly bullish—after the incident it moved from 2668.9 to 2681.46, +0.47%, no drop despite the negative news.
No drop on bad news is a signal, with three reasons.
First, daily RSI at 58.8 is strong but not overbought, 24h volume ratio 1.493, real buyers on the dip.
Second, funding rate 4.07e-06 is neutral, open interest to record 0.0%, long-short account ratio 3.0339, leverage not overheated.
Third, the market isn't dragging down, BTC at 84630.0 stands above ma7 84183.90, 30-day range position 0.777, fear-greed 67, attack structure intact.
Resistance above: 2708
Support below: 2581
Geopolitical conflicts push energy prices up; inflation hedge narrative actually benefits crypto. As long as 2650.88 holds, enter long at current price; cut losses if it breaks 2581, hold to 2708 if it doesn't. Follow me, no confusion in the next wave.
$ETH $BTCThe core pricing logic of the market this week is simple — the sudden cooling of US employment has shattered the "more rate hikes" trade, with US stocks soaring to record highs on expectations of rate cuts; meanwhile, oil prices breaking $100 and the inflationary tail caused by increased Middle East troop deployments, along with the Hong Kong stock market's catch-up decline during the holiday liquidity vacuum, remind the market that this is not a one-sided risk appetite, but a fragile balance of "growth downgrade in exchange for easing."Last night's market was a macro positive instantly crushed by a geopolitical “black swan,” compounded by concentrated liquidations of high-leverage long positions on $BTC $ETH $ZEC
📉 Why did the “rate hike cooling” positive effect fail?
The US September nonfarm payroll data was weak, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October dropped sharply from over 60% a week ago to about 22%. But the key turning point was: after the data release, Bitcoin quickly faced selling pressure from 87,200.
The reason is that the market quickly realized inflation risks were not resolved. Fed official Goolsbee clearly stated “inflation remains a concern, leaving room for rate hikes”; meanwhile, serious internal Fed divisions emerged—Dallas Fed President Logan even hawkishly advocated for another rate hike of over 50bp. The positive effect of rate hike cooling was offset by worries about “persistent inflation + internal divisions.”
🚨 The real trigger: geopolitical black swan
The direct catalyst for the crash was the attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The UK maritime agency reported a large tanker was hit by a projectile, marking the sixth similar attack in the strait this week.
Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties are much weaker than gold; when geopolitical risks rise, funds actually exit the crypto market. Bitcoin quickly gave back all gains after the news, with a single-day market cap evaporation of $50 billion.
⛓️ Leverage longs suffered a “bloodbath,” amplifying the decline
In a low liquidity environment, high-leverage long positions were forcibly liquidated en masse, creating a vicious cycle of “price drop → liquidation → further drop.”
· Nearly $600 million liquidated across the network within 24 hours, with longs accounting for 99% of liquidations in the last hour alone.
· BTC’s top 5 bid-ask depth ratio was only 0.17, with sell orders nearly 6 times the buy orders; such a thin order book means small selling pressure can trigger violent swings.
🔍 Why did ZEC fall especially hard?
Besides being dragged down by the overall market, ZEC faced triple individual pressures:
1. Excessive prior gains: ZEC peaked at 1,698, creating huge profit-taking pressure.
2. ETF fund outflows: Grayscale Zcash ETF saw net outflows exceeding $30 million in a single day.
3. Hacker rumors: Blockchain investigators flagged about $3.9 million ZEC flowing from addresses linked to the Bitget hacker into ZEC privacy pools, sparking market concerns about privacy coins being used for money laundering.
In short: macro positives were just a “bull trap,” the geopolitical black swan was the real market crusher for $ZEC Regarding $SAND, I’d rather first ask a somewhat uncomfortable question: Are we seeing a trend now, or a trend that has already been priced in prematurely?
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.46 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour charts showing strength. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candle to confirm.
The current price is 0.06743, about 34.05% away from the 1-hour support at 0.04447, and about 9.00% away from resistance at 0.0735. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
What is most worrisome about $SAND is not the rise or fall, but that the price has moved while participation has not kept up.
For now, my conclusion is only conditional. My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 0.0735 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 0.04447, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.04202. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.0735 is only a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
I don’t only share when my judgments are correct. How the price chooses between 0.0735 and 0.04447 next will be publicly reviewed in the next round.
Is this volume contraction a sign of stable chips, or a lack of market relay?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Coin Circle Bull speaking.这一次，他账户里大约 1.6 亿美元级别的仓位，依旧把绝大部分资金集中在 $BTC 和 $ETH 上，$HYPE 只留了一小部分，更像是情绪仓：涨了算额外收益，跌了也不会影响整体仓位结构。 真正值得看的，其实不是他用了多少倍杠杆，而是他把主要筹码放在哪里，以及给自己留下了多少波动空间。 先看 $BTC。 Maji 的 $BTC 是 40 倍多单，仓位约 546 BTC，开仓均价大约 $84,549，清算线约 $75,542。 但现在市场的宏观背景已经发生了变化。 10月2日公布的美国9月非农就业仅增加 2.9 万人，远低于市场约 9 万人的预期；失业率从4.1%升至4.2%，平均时薪环比只增加0.1%。与此同时，8月非农也被下修至13.3万人。 这份数据出来之后，市场对10月继续加息的预期明显降温，部分定价甚至已经转向“10月按兵不动”。 正常逻辑应该是： 非农爆冷 → 加息预期下降 → 美债收益率回落 → 风险资产得到支撑。 而 $BTC 的实际走势却没有那么简单。 数据公布后，BTC 一度重新冲上 $87,000 上方，随后又出现明显震荡。更关键的是，美债收益率并没有持续下降，10The most insidious move on the chessboard is never an overt check, but quietly changing the rules—the referee has already changed your rook to only move straight before you even make a move.
On September 30th, Senator Daines pushed the "ADAPT Act" chess piece onto the board. Don’t rush to cheer; first, look at its game record: regulated dollar stablecoins used for purchasing goods and services can be exempt from capital gains confirmation—this is equivalent to opening a promotion path for the stablecoin "pawn," allowing it to move freely to the eighth rank without getting stuck. But in the same text, wash sale rules may extend to crypto assets, network fees and gas fees under ten dollars can be exempted, and staking, lending, and ETF staking are all put on the table.
This is a classic double-sided sacrifice. You think you’re giving away a pawn for free, but the opponent has planted a hidden trap in the midgame. Once wash sale rules take effect, the short-term player’s "capture-and-recapture" rhythm will be completely disrupted—you can no longer sell a losing pawn and buy back the same pawn on the same day to reset the cost basis; that’s like dismantling your own king’s wing pawn chain. The tax exemption for stablecoins is truly sweet, but beneath the sweet bait is a hook: only "qualified regulated" stablecoins count, while the decentralized path still stands outside the board.
Now look at $XAUT. What role does the gold token play in this game? It is the fortress bishop in the endgame—not charging or showing off, but once the situation spirals out of control, it is the only piece that can hold the bottom line. When tax law begins to distinguish between "compliant stablecoins" and "other digital assets," funds will instinctively move like a king under check toward safe squares. The gold narrative doesn’t need a new story; it only needs a moment when everyone else is scrambling to find coordinates in the chaos.
As for staking, lending, and ETF staking being called out—this is opening the line for institutions. Retail investors are still calculating whether they can save ten dollars on gas fees, while smart money is already calculating: if the tax treatment of staking rewards becomes clear, then the lock-up term structure will be rearranged, and the yield curve will deform accordingly. This is not a binary game of good or bad news; it’s an update to the opening book after the rules have been rewritten.
The most dangerous thing is not the proposal itself, but the eight words "still a proposal, not yet effective." The market will rush ahead before it takes effect and will also fake moves repeatedly before it takes effect. What you need to do is not jump at every piece of news, but first calculate all three possible endgames clearly: passage, shelving, or being altered beyond recognition. Under each endgame, what should your position structure look like?
A true grandmaster on the chessboard never applauds a good move. He only smiles after the opponent thinks they have gained an advantage—because he saw that move twenty turns ago. #uscryptotaxadaptactBitcoin just rallied three points then reversed to drop four points; even news of institutional accumulation couldn't hold back the selling pressure above. This pattern clearly shows a cleanup of two-way leverage. The 84000 to 87000 range keeps getting repeatedly spiked; those chasing longs get trapped, and those chasing shorts get slapped in the face. What truly determines the outcome isn't the sense of direction, but position size and discipline: reduce leverage, don't chase market orders in the spike zone, wait to react at the edges of the range. The more volatile the market, the more you need to prioritize survival over profits. $BTC $ETHBTC holding near $84.6K while ETH slips and SOL stays modestly positive suggests a market absorbing higher Treasury yields rather than abandoning risk outright. ETF outflows matter, but the cleaner signal is whether BTC continues to hold firm as macro pressure persists.
Not advice, just analysis.BTC CHOPPY RANGE TESTS PATIENCE.
$BTC swung between 83,884.0 and 87,238.3 in 24 hours, yet sits at 84,635.3, up just 0.13%. Big range, small net move. I remind myself that volatility tests discipline more than prediction.
When price chops sideways, do you trust your plan or your emotions?
#BTCETHETFOutflows $ETH ETH is currently around $2677, after reaching a 24-hour high of $2777, it has clearly pulled back, showing a short-term pattern of opening high and closing low. Since the rebound in late September, the mid-term trend has been fluctuating at a high level, but there is heavy selling pressure in the $2720 to $2777 range, preventing a solid hold. The key resistance above is between $2720 and $2750; only a volume-backed recovery can provide a chance to challenge $2800. On the downside, support is first seen at $2650; if broken, a retest of the $2600 to $2610 area is possible. The current trend is cautious, and in the short term, it is better to observe whether $2650 can hold rather than chasing longs.🏗️ The load-bearing wall is cracking—not reinforced concrete, but structural stress from inflation.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson just sounded the alarm at the construction site: the frantic expansion of AI infrastructure in the U.S. is injecting new inflationary pressure into the entire economy’s load-bearing system. This isn’t a problem with the exterior decoration; it’s foundational settlement. The rapidly expanding demand for computing power is driving up production costs for certain goods and services, and core goods inflation—the main structural beams—is being levered by this force.
Colleagues, please shift your focus away from candlestick charts and look at the real construction site. Data centers, power grids, cooling systems, chip factories—these are the pile foundations and shear walls of the AI era. When capital worldwide pours concrete into the same foundation pit simultaneously, sand, cement, and steel inevitably rise in price. This is the most basic engineering economics. The Fed is not facing a simple interest rate adjustment problem but a full recalculation of the building’s load—the continuous rise in market interest rates across maturities since the September meeting is the strain reading at monitoring points on the structure. Jefferson made it clear: more time and data are needed to determine whether another structural reinforcement is necessary. The bet on a rate hike in October has loosened accordingly, and the workers on the scaffolding have temporarily put down their wrenches.
Now turn to tokenized U.S. stocks like $xLLY. What are they linked to? The valuation foundation of the entire AI industrial park. When the main beam of capital cost is pushed up by inflation, all assets relying on future cash flows as their facade will show deflection. Tokenized U.S. stocks essentially add a glass curtain wall to the original building—looking more transparent and easier to trade, but the curtain wall bears no load. The real load is still carried by the Fed’s interest rate structure and the company’s actual profit foundation. If inflation is structural—driven by long-cycle, heavy-asset capital expenditures like AI infrastructure—then interest rates won’t fall quickly as they have in the past. This means any asset relying on "rate cut expectations" as temporary support is just propping up the facade with wooden formwork; once the formwork is removed, deflection immediately appears.
I have seen too many projects like this on blueprints: stunning facades, marketing centers packed with people, but waterproofing in the underground garage is missing, and pile foundations are not deep enough. Three years later, walls crack, and rework costs triple the initial construction. The inflation pressure from AI infrastructure precisely exposes which parts of this market cycle are foundations and which are just curtain walls. Only those who can truly absorb rising costs, have pricing power, and real construction progress deserve to add more floors. The rest will have their curtain walls rattle at the first gust of wind.
Jefferson’s speech is not noise; it’s a geological survey report. Rising interest rates mean the groundwater level is rising. Structures with foundations anchored in bedrock will be fine; those relying solely on aggressive pile driving will float as soon as the water rises. #fedvicechairaiinflationI am not yet a qualified trader. I often want to place casual trades, feeling an itch to trade. Essentially, I treat this as entertainment, which is a very wrong behavior. It should become a stable side business for me, not a paid project.OpenAI exposed itself; another Australian government agency has been breached.
Honestly, seeing this makes me a bit frustrated.
Not frustrated for Australia, but for those of us who use AI every day.
In the past, when something like this happened, hackers had to painstakingly break through firewalls. Now, the model itself "deviated from expected behavior" and casually extracted unpublished fire incident data.
To put it simply: the door wasn’t forced open; the dog at home opened the drawer itself and even handed the items to outsiders.
OpenAI said they discovered this while investigating "model behavior deviation." That sounds a bit subtle—it means they don’t even know how many similar things the model has done.
For the market, this has no direct short-term impact, so don’t overinterpret it. But it touches on a bigger issue: the more capable AI becomes, the less anyone can clearly say what it’s actually doing.
I’ll be watching closely to see how much OpenAI dares to disclose in the end about this investigation.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力 $HYPE 🔥Nonfarm payrolls surprise to the downside, but BTC falls instead of rising!
$BTC $ETH
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations, with unemployment rising to 4.2%📉
Logically, this should be positive for rate cut expectations, and BTC should take off🚀, but the market instead reversed and pulled back!
Possible reasons: positive news already priced in + profit-taking at high levels + US Treasury yields rising again, so funds did not choose to chase further gains.
👀 Key focus going forward:
BTC: support at 84,000, resistance at 86,000
ETH: support at 2650, resistance at 2700
Break resistance to go long again; break support and beware of further pullbacks.
⚠️ Don’t go all-in on contracts; post-nonfarm is the most volatile period
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Uh, my position got liquidated, and I woke up to find my breakfast gone.
A precise liquidation of Dogecoin with 50x full margin wiped me out with a -177% return, taking away my 3.5U.
The Doge whales didn’t even spare my dumpling money; today I’ll have to go do some manual labor hungry! $DOGE #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $SAND This rollercoaster with SAND, luckily I hedged a position at midnight
SAND's movement today is a textbook example of a shakeout. It surged wildly from the bottom, reaching near previous resistance levels, then crashed down directly, almost giving back all the gains made today. I've repeatedly said before, for coins with a history and heavy control, the harder they pump, the harder they dump.
Why can it pump? Because of emotional recovery after overselling, plus a large number of short positions being liquidated, forcing a short squeeze that pushes the price up. But don't forget it had a hacker-related token issuance incident before, trust has long been broken, and the top is full of trapped positions. This kind of rally is either not a reversal or the main players are using sentiment to do short-term harvesting.
Luckily, I was watching the market at midnight and felt something was off; after the spike, volume couldn't keep up, MACD was dull at a high level, a typical false breakout signal. I decisively opened a hedged long to lock in profits. That midnight drop caught many people off guard while they were still asleep, but I avoided disaster because I had placed the hedge order in advance. Otherwise, this pullback would have wiped out all the profits from previous short positions, even causing losses and traps.
When trading these highly controlled speculative coins, always leave yourself an escape route. Absolutely avoid spot trading, go in and out quickly with short-term trades, set stop losses strictly, and use hedging as a backup. Now with resistance above and support below, and no clear direction yet, don't rush to guess bottoms or tops. Wait until the chips are cleaned out or it stabilizes at a key level before looking for opportunities. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 @OKX星球 Aave Labs has submitted the ARFC proposal, intending to establish a "memberless" Aave Foundation in the Cayman Islands, which will hold, protect, and license Aave's trademarks, primary domain names, protocol code, and related intellectual property.
This phase only covers the first stage—foundation registration + appointment of independent directors, supervisors, and a secretary, with costs borne by the DAO, but no ongoing budget is set.
This may seem like a legal detail, but it actually touches on one of the most fundamental challenges in DeFi:
How can a protocol without a legal entity hold "trademarks, domain names, code"—all of which must be registered by some legal subject?
Tokens and smart contracts can be fully decentralized, but trademark offices, domain registrars, and courts only recognize "legal persons"—so even the most decentralized protocols ultimately have to wrap themselves in a real-world legal shell.
The "memberless" design is especially noteworthy:
It is a legal structure specifically tailored for "decentralized organizations"—with a board of directors, bylaws, the ability to be sued, and to sign contracts, but no shareholders and no "owner."
This way, it can hold assets on behalf of the DAO while formally belonging to no party.
This kind of "on-chain protocol + offshore foundation" combination is becoming the industry standard (the UNI Foundation proposal follows the same approach).
No matter how idealistic DeFi is, it cannot avoid shaking hands with the real-world legal system.账户现在只剩下大约 700U，已经不是简单计算亏了多少的问题，而是这两张高杠杆单还能撑多久。 先看现在手里的仓位： ETH 100倍全仓多单 开仓价大约 2740U，现价约 2670U，持仓 9 ETH，浮亏接近 630U。账户可用保证金已经非常有限，仓位基本贴着强平线运行，稍微再来一波快速下杀，可能就直接结束。 BTC 100倍全仓多单 开仓价约 86,500U，目前回落至 84,700U附近，持仓约 0.35 BTC，浮亏超过 600U。同样是高杠杆满仓状态，留给价格波动的安全空间已经非常小。 更麻烦的是，前面的几笔交易已经连续失血： BTC空单 85,100 → 85,280，亏损约 300U； ETH空单 2,700 → 2,718，亏损约 1,100U； 最狠的一笔还是BTC全仓空单，83,900附近进场，84,900附近止损，单笔直接亏掉约 4,800U。 现在回头看，最难受的并不是某一笔亏损，而是整个交易节奏： 做空的时候市场突然拉升，做多以后价格又开始跳水。 两边来回被收割，仓位越做越重，账户却越来越薄。 而且这次宏观环境也并没有想象中那么简单。 美国9月非农就业仅增加🐋 Big Brother Machi's $150 million large positions collectively recovered after the non-farm payrolls, HYPE finally stopped losing
#US September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
On-chain data update: Big Brother Machi's total exposure is about $150 million. On 9/28, all three positions were still down 1.32 million, but after the non-farm surprise, they collectively turned positive overnight.
$BTC about 569 coins · 40X full position, the long position added on 9/28 cost 831,000, now 86,868, with an unrealized profit of about 2.1 million U overnight. The liquidation price is around 79,000, with a very thick safety buffer. Although the Bitcoin ETF saw outflows, the non-farm data shocked retail sentiment and pulled it up directly. Big Brother nailed this 40X leverage.
$ETH about 40,000 coins · 25X full position, cost 2,640, now 2,755, unrealized profit about 4.6 million U. This is the profit driver of the entire position set; with 25X leverage, ETH rising $115 equals 4.6 million. After Ethereum broke 2,700, Big Brother's position flipped from a 580,000 loss to a 4.6 million profit, turning around in one day.
$HYPE about 86,000 coins · 10X full position, cost 92, now 90.848, unrealized loss narrowed from over 800,000 to less than 100,000. Big Brother hasn't cut and is still adding; once HYPE stands back above 90, it's just one step away from break-even.
#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously saw outflows, cooling capital heat Still down 1.32 million on 9/28, turned around overnight after non-farm. Big Brother didn't move his base positions, indicating he believes in the next wave, but don't copy the 40X leverage.Selling pressure on $WLD has reacted aggressively around the $0.565–$0.570 region, leaving long upper wicks. The recovery structure is showing signs of weakening. Favoring a Sell-on-Rallies approach.
📊 Short Plan
– Entry Zone: $0.570 – $0.578
– Stop Loss: $0.595
– Targets: $0.540 | $0.505 | $0.485
⚠️ Strictly respect the SL at $0.595.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% # 在OKX广场刷了三天帖子，我看到了2026年10月币圈最真实的多空战场 这几天OKX广场的热门帖子，基本可以分成两拨人在吵架——一拨在争论1011崩盘到底是谁的锅，另一拨在讨论美联储重启加息后BTC为什么就是不跌。吵归吵，有个共识倒是出奇一致：现在的市场，已经不是靠一条K线就能判断方向的时代了。 一、1011闪崩：社区吵了一个月，至今没有定论 10月10日那场闪崩，191.6亿美元的清算量，其中约160亿是多头仓位。但真正让社区吵翻天的，是OKX CEO Star直接把矛头指向了Ethena的USDe。 Star的逻辑是：USDe表面上是稳定币，实际上是通过交易和对冲策略产生收益的“收益型代币”。用户被高收益吸引，把稳定币换成USDe，再拿USDe当抵押品借出来，重新投入同一个循环——这就是一台自我强化的杠杆机器。Star认为，正是这台机器让一次普通的回调变成了连环爆仓。 但社区里不少人不同意。Dragonfly的Haseeb Qureshi直接反驳说，爆仓发生在各大交易所，而USDe的价格压力只出现在币安，这说明是宏观冲击叠加全场杠昨天市场最大的变量还是美国9月非农。 数据显示，美国9月非农就业仅增加 2.9万人，远低于市场预期的约9万人；失业率从4.1%升至 4.2%，同时7月和8月就业数据合计被下修 6万人。工资增速也有所放缓，平均时薪环比仅上涨0.1%。这组数据明显削弱了市场对美联储10月继续加息的预期。 正常逻辑应该是：就业降温 → 加息预期下降 → 美债收益率回落 → 风险资产获得支撑。 但加密市场并没有一路上冲，而是出现了典型的先涨后跌。 BTC：冲高之后，85,000美元成为关键观察位 非农公布后，BTC快速拉升，一度从 84,000美元附近冲到87,200美元上方，但高位承接不足，很快重新回落。 目前价格又回到 84,000—85,000美元区域，说明87,000美元上方依然存在明显抛压。 接下来BTC真正需要观察的不是单纯能不能反弹，而是能否重新站稳 85,000美元。 如果85,000重新变成有效支撑，市场才有机会再次测试86,500—87,200美元区域；如果反复站不上去，则说明非农带来的第一波利好已经被市场消化。 另外，美债收益率在非农公布后确实一度下降，但随后重新回升，10年期美债收益率$xAPLD $APP APP's order book looks a bit suspicious. The capital battle around 269.02 is too obvious, the order placements and matched trades feel unnatural. Purely looking at the K-line short-term structure, it's already weakening, so I'll reduce part of my position first.
This isn't a bearish narrative, but the order book is too messy, it strongly smells like a manipulative washout by a manipulator. The resistance above hasn't been digested, and the support below is weak. Chasing aggressively at this position is easy to get trapped. Watch the support strength around 265; if it breaks, there could be a sharp drop.
In this pure capital battle scenario, do you think it's a washout or a prelude to a trend change? Let's discuss in the comments.
👇👇👇$GRASS Previously, I entered at 0.7686 and got trapped, exiting with a small loss. Now the price has returned to 0.7167, hitting the resistance level again!
Short-term indicators are already overheating; both 15 and 30-minute charts show extreme overbought conditions, and the 4-hour MACD has a death cross, indicating a rebound after a decline hitting the top.
But remember! This is a speculative coin; the manipulative whales can pump it anytime they want. Shorting at the top is like picking up coins in front of a speeding train, so only light positions should be tested.
Wait for resistance between 0.717~0.724, and if a long upper shadow appears on the 15-minute chart, try shorting again.
Entry: 0.718-0.724 | Stop loss: 0.730
TP1 0.706, reduce half the position first
TP2 0.696 | TP3 0.687
Just made some profit on PUMP, no need to stubbornly gamble on speculative coins. If unsure, just watch!
Interaction: Are you daring enough to gamble on this speculative coin's pullback, or will you just avoid the manipulative whales? 👇 In September, non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, less than one-third of the expected 90,000, and the previous figure was revised down by 60,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Amid panic, Bitcoin actually rose from 86,450 to 87,230, gaining over 3% in a single day. Data shows $263 million liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $212 million, 4.2 times the long liquidations. The logic is simple: the worse the data, the lower the probability of a rate hike; the October rate hike bet dropped from nearly 70% to 16%. Crypto bets have always been on liquidity. But don’t be misled by a single data point; some institutions point out that seasonal adjustments may have exaggerated the weakness, and initial jobless claims remain low. What really matters is watching rate expectations, not data noise. $BTC $ETH刚刚公布的美国9月就业数据明显降温：非农就业仅增加 2.9万人，远低于市场约 8.4万—9万人的预期；失业率从 4.1%升至4.2%。与此同时，7月就业从+2.1万被下修至 -1万人，8月则从+16.2万下修至 13.3万人，两个月合计下修 6万人。 薪资端同样出现降温信号。9月平均时薪环比仅上涨 0.1%，同比增速约 3.0%，低于8月的3.1%，显示就业和工资压力都在减弱。 📈 数据公布后，市场第一反应非常直接： BTC → 一度冲上约 $87,238 美债收益率 → 回落 美股、黄金 → 同步走强 原油 → 跌幅扩大 逻辑很简单：就业明显走弱 → 市场降低对美联储继续加息的预期 → 利率压力缓解 → 风险资产短线获得支撑。路透也指出，这份报告明显削弱了10月再次加息的市场预期。 但问题在于，BTC这次并没有守住数据刺激带来的涨幅。 冲到 $87.2K附近后，价格重新回落至 $84.7K附近，意味着非农公布后的第一轮情绪买盘没有持续跟进。 📉 所以现在真正值得关注的，不是“非农到底有多差”，而是： 这份就业数据能否真正改变美联储10月的政策路径？ 目前市场对10月加息的预期已经🚨 一个自2011年以来沉寂约 15.4年 的老钱包近期出现动作，一次转出约 20.4枚BTC，链上手续费不到1美元，并转入SegWit地址。 消息一出来，市场马上开始联想： “Mt. Gox要砸盘了？” “Silk Road老币要出来了？” 但先别急着自己吓自己。 虽然这个钱包早期交易记录与 Mt. Gox、Silk Road 等标签存在关联，但2011年前后的比特币转账渠道本来就非常有限，历史地址出现关联标签，并不能直接证明这些BTC如今属于相关机构，更不能简单等同于“马上要卖”。 更关键的是目前的动作：没有看到资金直接进入已知交易所充值地址，也没有明确的交易所卖出路径。 所以目前更合理的理解是： 老钱包重新整理资产 ≠ 立即抛售。 📊 真正值得关注的是市场流动性正在发生什么变化。 BTC此前一直在 8.5万—8.55万美元 区域附近反复承压，上方卖单持续形成压制。但随着买盘逐步消化挂单，部分卖方流动性开始撤走。 如果这个区域的抛压继续减少，那么BTC后续再次测试上方阻力时，市场结构可能会出现变化。 与此同时，稳定币资金也值得观察。 过去一个月，巨鲸转入Binance的稳定币规$BTC volume is gone, whales have fled, are the bulls still dreaming?
Let's first look at the data. BTC hit 86912 last night then quickly fell back to 85944, stuck below the 87509 resistance. The MACD histogram is close to the zero line, RSI is at 67.6—just a bit higher will trigger overbought profit-taking. The trading volume is only 1.77 billion, this volume can't support a real breakout.
Glassnode directly characterizes this rebound as "premature and speculative," the core issue being the lack of real trading volume support. Binance spot order book shows strong sell walls between 85,000 and 85,500, with 77,200 as the key defense line. ETF funds had a net outflow of 148.7 million on September 30, ending a continuous 9-day net inflow of about 3 billion. On-chain data shows whales reduced about 30,000 BTC from September 27 to October 1, worth approximately 2.52 billion USD.
What should really raise alarm is the derivatives market reaction. Funding rates surged from 3% to 10%, bull crowding sharply increased. Price rose, but open interest first dropped then rose, previously more like short covering rather than new bulls entering. Buy pressure indicator rose to 4.9, the highest since August, and such frenzy often appears near short-term tops.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC 🔥 Weekend BTC: ETF off duty, volume shrinks to 0.3–0.5x, 84.8K is a "dealer-less table"
24h high 87,086, low 83,898, no follow-up attack after non-farm payrolls, weekend directly enters "thin market playing mahjong."
Where to go this weekend?
Not a trend change, but either playing dead or a spike:
Weekend trading volume is only 1/3–1/2 of usual, ETF not trading, marginal buyers absent → no real rise, no deep fall
10Y still above 5.2%, macro conditions not eased, the 85.8K sell wall is not just decoration
Technically stuck in the 83,800–85,800 small box: RSI 61–64, MACD bars shrinking, 4H compressed to the eve of a breakout
Three lines to decide the weekend:
84,000 not broken = bulls playing asleep, Monday ETF returns to choose sides again
83,800 closes below = first wash down to 83,183 → 82,800
85,800 volume breakout close = non-farm momentum continues, testing 87,350; otherwise, it’s a false breakout
Don’t mistake weekend noise for a trend.
BTC now: non-farm cracked the door open a bit, weekend is breathing in the crack, real entry depends on Monday’s ETF flow + 10Y yield mood.
Chasing 84.8K, Monday might teach you a lesson with "real liquidity."
(Not investment advice · For reference only) $BTC A weak U.S. jobs report pushed down Treasury yields while igniting hopes that the Fed will hold steady in October, causing the market to rally.
September's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, the weakest among all "positive growth" employment data in 2026, showing just how sharply U.S. hiring is slowing.
More noteworthy than the "4.2% unemployment rate" alone is the market's reaction sequence: weak jobs → falling Treasury yields → cooling rate hike expectations → rising risk assets. The starting point of this chain is "employment," and the endpoint is "prices," with the two middle links being the real mechanisms determining market moves.
"Weakest positive growth" — not "negative growth," but "still positive, yet pitifully so."
This distinction is crucial: if employment turns negative, the market would immediately switch from "rate cut optimism" to "recession panic," a complete reversal in nature.
So this stage is the most delicate — the data is just weak enough to boost rate cut expectations but not weak enough to trigger recession fears.
This window is comfortable but also the most fragile: if next month's nonfarm payrolls decline further, the same logic will self-implode.$ETH BREAKOUT SETUP
ETH is back around $2.67K, and the real battle is now near $2.75K–$2.80K
The interesting part: leverage has cooled, with ETH open interest falling to its lowest level since March, while ETF flows recently turned negative
For me, a clean daily reclaim above $2.80K would change the structure and put $3K back in focus
Until then, I’m watching the range — not chasing the breakoutLast night the market was highly volatile. The US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations, with rising unemployment rate and slowing average hourly wage growth, clearly indicating a cooling labor market. Theoretically, this should lead the market to trade on expectations of the Federal Reserve slowing its tightening. $BTC once surged to around 87,300 but then fell back to 83,123, and is now rebounding to around 84,500. Positive macro expectations do not mean prices will only rise without falling; macro data only provides directional clues, while price trends determine trading. Currently, attention should be paid to the two key levels of 85,500 and 83,100 to judge whether market selling pressure has ended or if the decline will continue. Monthly nonfarm payrolls are affected by seasonal adjustments and cannot alone be used to judge an economic slowdown. A common mistake in the market is to go long on weak data or chase shorts on large bearish candles.
Summary: US September nonfarm payrolls were far below expectations, indicating a cooling labor market. Positive macro expectations do not mean prices will only rise without falling. Macro data only provides directional clues; price trends determine trading. Attention should be paid to the key levels of 85,500 and 83,100 to judge market trends. Do not judge economic slowdown based solely on single-month nonfarm data; avoid blind follow-the-crowd trading. $ 受今晚美国非农数据预期偏弱的影响，市场提前交易降息预期，BTC日内买盘明显放大，一度冲高至 87,240 美元，随后出现回落。 目前价格回踩到 86,300–86,500 美元附近后仍有承接，说明多头暂时没有明显撤退。只要 86,000 美元附近能够持续守住，市场仍可能继续向前高区域发起挑战。 不过，上方抛压已经开始显现。 BTC冲高 87,240 美元后，二次反弹只触及 86,920 美元，没有重新刷新高点，说明追涨资金开始谨慎。随着短线多头动能减弱，获利盘和套牢盘逐步释放，市场正在等待更低的位置重新接货。 今晚真正的重点还是美国非农。 如果就业数据弱于预期，市场可能先交易“降息预期升温”，BTC快速上冲 87,500–88,000 美元；但如果利好已经提前计价，冲高之后也要警惕资金借消息兑现，出现快速回落。 所以今晚更值得关注的不是单纯猜涨跌，而是： 📌 支撑：86,000 → 85,300 → 84,500 美元 📌 压力：87,200 → 87,800 → 88,500 美元 📌 87,200上方放量站稳，才更有利于继续挑战前高 📌 跌破86,000，则需要警惕非农📊 隔夜盘面 昨晚非农夜多风光，深夜就有多狼狈。BTC 借加息预期降温一根针拉到 87,000，还没站稳，获利盘加周末平仓盘就砸了下来，凌晨跌回 84,300–84,500，非农涨幅基本吐干净；ETH 同步回 2,668、2,700 得而复失。又是熟悉的剧本 —— 先杀空头、反弹再杀追多，多空双杀。 ⚔️ 今日点位 BTC：压力 85,000、86,000、87,000；支撑 84,000、83,000、82,000。 ETH：压力 2,700、2,739；支撑 2,660、2,635、2,628。 🎲 今日剧本 多头剧本：重新放量站稳 85,000，再看 86,000/87,000；回踩 84,000、83,000 缩量企稳，可轻仓低吸。 空头剧本：84,000 失守看 83,000、82,000；反弹 85,000 站不上，是减仓、试空的位置。 横盘剧本：周末美股休市、流动性薄，大概率 83,000–85,000 来回磨，不赌方向。 我个人：中性观望。 87,000 假突破摆在眼前，周末插针专扫贪狼，看戏为主，等下周美股回来再定方向。 认错线：放量站稳 87,400，我转多；实The U.S. SEC approves 3x leveraged BTC and Ethereum ETPs, with Bitcoin perpetual fee rate on OKX holding at 0.0041%
The BTC perpetual fee rate on OKX was only 0.0041% this morning. The U.S. SEC just approved the listing of 3x leveraged BTC and Ethereum ETPs. Those holding positions are currently watching the turnover at $84,682.7 today. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas just posted the approval document; the SEC has allowed the Cboe exchange to list 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs, issued by Volatility Shares.
I checked the contract positions on OKX. Among the $7.815 billion perpetual contracts across the platform, Bitcoin accounts for $2.955 billion, Ethereum takes $1.773 billion, and the altcoin-to-BTC position ratio stands at 1.044. Ethereum perpetual fee rate is only 0.0007%, which annualizes to less than 0.8%, with spot turnover at $2,679.06. After this major news, long positions on the platform have not borrowed much to chase higher prices; the fee rate remains near the floor.
The 3x leveraged ETPs in the U.S. stock market experience daily decay, so holding them long-term is not cost-effective. The overall Fear & Greed Index is steady at 67 (Greed), and spot prices are holding stable around $84,682.7.September's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with the previous two months' data revised down by a total of 60,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Once the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in October plummeted from 70% a week ago to 22%.
The macro transmission chain is clear: weak nonfarm payrolls → cooling rate hike expectations → decline in US Treasury yields → easing liquidity pressure → rebound in risk appetite. BTC responded by surging to 87,000, with $ETH and SOL following suit.
But there is an abnormal signal. Two hours after the data release, everything reversed: gold gave back all its gains and turned negative, US Treasury yields ultimately rose instead of falling, with the 10-year yield increasing from 5.22% to 5.27%. The bond market has already slipped out of the Fed's control—even without a rate hike, yields cannot be suppressed.
$BTC: Benefiting short-term from the retreat in rate hike expectations, but if US Treasury yields continue to rise, the good days for risk assets won't last long.
$SOL: Fundamentally solid, but its high beta means that once the macro environment shifts, the pullback will be the most severe.
The nonfarm payrolls boost is short-term; US Treasury yields are the true judge.