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$SNDK has a resistance level at 1800 spanning several expiration dates, combined with previous resistance zones, making it a good shorting opportunity but requires patience. You need to wait for it to hit 1800, then the downward targets are 1770, 1755, and 1745.
Remember, this has already happened once today, so it’s not a fresh node. The more times the same node is touched, the higher the chance it will fail. If it closes above 1805, consider closing the position.
$BTC has seen a surge in long positions, and by the end of the trading session, the asset continued to gain momentum upward, breaking through the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud and testing resistance again around the $86,700 area.
However, buyers lacked the strength for a full breakout and it slightly pulled back. Given the consolidation above the Ichimoku cloud, there is a good chance for another attempt to move upward. Currently, it is expected to push up again in the short term, but with the workweek ending soon, volatility will likely decrease again, potentially leading to consolidation below this level. #闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元 #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $ENJ/USDT 1H Price is trying to reclaim support after the 0.04077 wick was aggressively rejected.
The 0.03357 level and MA cluster are being recovered, although recent volume is thin.
Entry: 0.0332–0.0336
SL: 0.0324
TP1: 0.0345
TP2: 0.03677
TP3: 0.0400
Continuation becomes more convincing if volume expands above 0.0345. The old wick high should not be treated as accepted value.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #USTreasuryYieldsSurge $CT you trash coin, just come down already, I kept shorting from 4.5 all the way to 6.3 without exiting, I fully exited at 0.5 with no regrets, now just watching the show to see if there's another big pump, considering entering short positions at 0.7/0.8/0.66 Although the non-farm payrolls missed expectations, gold and $BTC actually fell. Many people don't understand, so Da Mo breaks it down clearly all at once.
At the moment the non-farm payrolls were announced, U.S. Treasury yields quickly dropped, and after the U.S. stock market opened, it rebounded again.
The essence is a market logic switch: from trading based on interest rate expectations to trading based on inflation and term premium.
1. Just after the non-farm payrolls release: yields fell first
September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, and the data for the previous two months were revised down simultaneously.
The market's first reaction: weakening employment, cooling economy, lower probability of a Fed rate hike in October, short-term rates fall, so gold and BTC should have risen.
2. When the U.S. stock market opened, the second layer of logic switched
Weak employment does not mean yields will continue to fall.
Funds repriced inflation, crude oil, and the term premium brought by U.S. fiscal policy.
Crude oil strengthened, long-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off. The market worries about deficits and long-term inflation, pushing up long-term yields, suppressing gold and BTC.
The macro market is layered and nested; just looking at surface data can easily lead to being proven wrong by the market.
$ETH $ZEC
👉 Follow Da Mo to understand fund logic in real time and not miss key signals.
Do you think long-term U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise? Let's discuss in the comments.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 No matter how beautifully the blueprints are drawn, if the planning permit is not stamped, the building won't even dare to start excavating the foundation pit.
The real significance of this news is not what a certain chairman said, but that the regulators have finally abandoned the "wait for the master plan to be implemented before starting construction" approach, and instead have taken out the existing authority under current regulations to first provide the market with the necessary approvals. The so-called Regulation Crypto Assets is essentially a new construction approval guideline: an early-stage project cap of five million USD is like a temporary construction permit for small self-built houses; seventy-five million USD every twelve months is the annual total construction approval quota for large-scale developers; disclosure rules require completion documents to be archived, and the safe harbor is phased acceptance of concealed works—allowing you to pour concrete first, then sending inspectors to check the rebar. This process is not new; every super high-rise building is approved layer by layer in this way.
What truly deserves attention is the advancement of tokenized stock exemptions. This means that model units that could previously only be viewed through glass are now allowed to trade real ownership. The US stock token $xSPY is linked to the market, essentially slicing an entire floor of commercial podium into divisible units, redistributing foot traffic, capital flow, and sentiment flow. But at this moment, the biggest taboo is mistaking the sales office's scale model lighting for structural calculation documents. Which walls are load-bearing, which are secondary partition walls, and how the load paths run—these can be seen at a glance when an earthquake hits.
Relaxed approvals never equal structural safety. If the foundation doesn't reach the bearing layer, five million USD will only enlarge the scale of a stalled project; no matter how broad the safe harbor, it cannot cover up corner-cutting in beam and column joints. There is only one watershed: whether the project party uses this quota to reinforce the underlying structure, expand the development team, and build a long-term scalable load-bearing system, or uses it to install curtain walls, make renderings, and hire people to queue up to create opening hype.
Legislation on the US market structure remains pending, equivalent to approving individual buildings before the master plan is finalized. In the short term, construction can indeed start, but in the long term, hidden risks remain—pipeline conflicts, insufficient setbacks, fire exits being encroached upon, all of which must be fixed painstakingly during the acceptance phase. The compliance path is clearer, but obtaining a construction permit is not a guarantee of best-seller status. Buildings that can survive cycles rely on reinforcement ratios, concrete grades, and joint methods—not the fireworks on opening day.
At this moment, I am only verifying one thing: who is pouring concrete into the foundation pit, and who is tiling the walls. #seconchainfundingrulesBig Brother Maji's latest position: $154 million all long, waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls to decide life or death
Total position about $154 million, all long.
$BTC: Increased to about 525 coins, average price 84548.6, position value about $44.7258 million, unrealized profit about $337,800.
$ETH: Reduced to about 33,000 coins, average price 2678.32, position value about $89.5252 million, unrealized profit about $1.4754 million. But funding fees of $1.1695 million have been paid, almost eating up the unrealized profit.
$HYPE: Position basically unchanged.
It’s clear that Big Brother Maji is also waiting for tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls, fully long betting on data exceeding expectations. Large size, high leverage; if ETH drops 4%, liquidation is possible. Previously liquidated about 8 times, with cumulative losses of about $30 million.
Is this direction correct this time? The market will give the answer. But high leverage has extremely low tolerance for errors. Watching is fine, but don’t blindly follow trades.
#Nonfarm #BigBrotherMaji #BTC #ETH #HYPE
The above is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. 📉Those that have risen a lot are too risky to touch, but are the ones that haven't really cheap?
This time, I'll actually take a closer look at $AAVE. It has risen nearly 18% in the past week and about 36% in the past month; the rise didn't just happen today. With this kind of performance, I won't rush to judge it will fall just because it seems expensive. If I missed out earlier, I can wait later, but I’m waiting for the right opportunity, not for the market to prove I was wrong.
For $BICO, I don't think it's time to feel confident yet. It rose about 4% intraday, but still fell about 4% over the past week; today's rebound hasn't recovered the week's losses. A big drop can make people think there's more room to grow, but cheap only means compared to the past; what matters is whether anyone is willing to buy next. If it’s just a market breather and then weakens again, don’t be quick to treat it as a start of a catch-up rally.
$SOL currently feels more like a correction to me. It rose about 14% in the past month but slightly retreated in the past week; the earlier rise and recent hesitation coexist. Just today's rise doesn't show if more buyers will keep chasing the price. I'll wait to observe it when the overall market pulls back; if it can hold up, that’s more valuable than just rising with the market. Different coins perform differently; there’s no need to think all coins move in the same direction just because of a rebound. $DORA/USDT 1H The highest risk setup in this group.
Price has gone nearly vertical, reaching 0.003 before pulling back. It is massively extended above every moving average, so slippage and sharp reversals are major risks.
Entry: 0.00195–0.00215
SL: 0.00172
TP1: 0.00245
TP2: 0.00270
TP3: 0.00300
A small position and patient pullback entry make more sense than chasing the current candle.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #USTreasuryYieldsSurge The large daily candle does not make every entry good. On BTC near $85.2K, targeting $87.1K with a stop below $83.8K offers a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1.4:1. If your minimum is 2:1, wait for a better entry. Visible: original risk box on BTC 1H timeframe.$BTC 周五的非农给了股票一口喘息，没给债券一个新故事。就业冷了，油价没冷，收益率先跌后涨。 道指 51177，涨 250 点，涨 0.5%，重新站上 5.1 万。标普 7723，涨 56 点，涨 0.7%，离历史高点不到 1%。纳指 27191，涨 319 点，涨 1.2%。罗素 2000 涨 0.9%。全周标普仍跌 0.3%，道指跌 1.3%，纳指涨 0.5%。年内标普约 +13%，纳指约 +17%，道指约 +6.5%。道指和标普本周是近五周里第四次收阴，纳指则是近六周里第五次收阳。 9 月非农只增 2.9 万，预期约 9 万。8 月从 16.2 万下修到 13.3 万，7 月从正增长改成减少 1 万。失业率升到 4.2%。时薪年率 3.0%，2021 年 5 月以来最低。10 月加息概率从一周前的 64% 掉到 23%。这是这周唯一真正改定价的数据。 债券没有跟着改完。十年期早盘掉到 5.2% 下方，尾盘又回到 5.25% 附近。30 年期仍在 5.6% 一线。油价早盘下挫，后来把跌幅收回大半。欧盟在讨论放柴油库存，霍尔木兹还没打开。收益率回吐跌幅，是因为通胀的供给端没被就业数据拿掉。股Current outlook
- 4H: Neutral-bearish, BTC continues to fail to stay above 84,000 USD.
- 1D: Neutral-bullish but weakening, not yet turned bearish as the 82,000–83,000 USD range persists.
- ETF flow reversal has reduced the chances of an immediate recovery, but the structure will not clearly deteriorate unless the price closes below the critical support area on the 4H timeframe.
-
Levels to watch
- Near support: 83,000–83,500 USD
- Structural support: 82,000–83,000 USD
- Bearish trend confirmation: 4H close below 82,000 USD
- Balance recovery: 84,000 USD
- Recovery st#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
Nonfarm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Nonfarm data was far below expectations, gold spiked up to 4220, then quickly pulled back to stand at 4150. The rate hike expectation dropped from 60% to 20%, the market has priced in the expectation early. The Nasdaq and S&P are both at historic highs. I want to say every pullback is a buying opportunity
$BTC $XAUT All three coins surge together, but the market is starting to heat up. Secure your floating profits first, then consider attacking.
$BTC has taken 86,000, with the previous high of 86,888 just within reach. Moving averages are aligned, MACD remains strong, but the 1-hour RSI has touched 66-68, increasing the probability of an overbought wick. Long positions can be held, but take profits in batches on the rally; do not chase. Resistance at 87,000, support at 84,000-85,000.
$ETH stands above 2,700 and has broken through the previous resistance at 2,747, the trend is good. You can add small positions on a pullback to 2,700; 2,800 is the next barrier.
$ZEC bounced from 1,305 to 1,385, but SAR still caps it, MACD has not turned red, so it’s only a weak recovery. Avoid heavy positions, support at 1,300, resistance at 1,400-1,440, suitable for high sell and low buy.
The hourly RSI for all three is not low; contracts must have stop loss and take profit. Adding positions at high levels is risky, realize profits first.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2%
🎣 Nonfarm added just 29,000 jobs, the fish didn’t die, but the water got murky
#Nonfarm #Fed #Employment #Macro #
The market expected 84,000, but the Labor Department released 29,000.
Unemployment rate nudged from 4.1% to 4.2%, and July and August jobs were revised down by 60,000. July changed from “up 21,000” to “down 10,000,” August cut from 162,000 to 133,000. This isn’t a crash; it’s like thinking you caught a bite today, but when you reel in, there are two fewer fish in the net than in the morning.
The official wording is very restrained: little change. Indeed, not much. Since March, the unemployment rate has hovered in a narrow band between 4.1% and 4.3%, with 7.1 million unemployed. Healthcare is still hiring, adding only 17,000 jobs this month, compared to a 12-month average of 33,000. The private sector added 46,000, government cut 17,000, offsetting each other, leaving the headline at 29,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% monthly, 3.0% year-over-year; wages haven’t gone crazy.
The trap is treating soft data as a positive.
US stock futures are climbing, 10-year Treasury yields are retreating from highs to around 5.2%, and the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to just over 10%, with the odds of holding steady rising to just above 80%. Jobs are weak, but money is happy—for now, the rate hike knife might be sheathed temporarily.
The knife is still on the table. Dallas Fed’s Logan said the same day that inflation isn’t under control, and rates may need to rise further. On one hand, new job growth is down to a third of expectations; on the other, some think hikes are still needed. This kind of split is more exhausting than a one-way drop.
For those of us watching the market and the end-of-month bills, don’t translate “higher odds of no rate hike” into “go all in.” Soft nonfarm data only means hiring is slowing, not that liquidity has returned. Crypto is tied to Treasury yields and the dollar by a single rope; just because the rope loosens doesn’t mean the fish are already in the net.
My own three steps: reduce leverage first, size positions to what lets me sleep at night, and don’t change beliefs based on one data point.
Are you cutting tonight, or watching?
$BTC $ETH $OKB #US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2%
Nonfarm data surprises on the downside, $BTC surges then starts to give answers
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected approximately 90,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. July and August employment figures were also revised down by a total of 60,000. Employment clearly cools down, and the market immediately reprices, with the probability of a rate hike in October dropping to about 15%.
BTC once surged near 87,000 but has now returned to 84,500, indicating that after the positive news was priced in, the market did not continue to chase blindly. What’s more noteworthy is leverage: since September 30, open interest (OI) rose from 626,000 to 653,000 contracts, and the funding rate increased from about 3% to 10%, showing that longs are clearly starting to rush ahead.
So the core contradiction now is clear: macro rate hike pressure is easing, spot funds are still supporting the bottom, but contract leverage has already heated up in advance.
A 15% chance of a rate hike in October is indeed somewhat friendly to short-term risk assets, but it cannot yet be interpreted as the Fed fully turning dovish. If BTC can reclaim 86,000 and OI continues to rise, the market may still have room to grow; if prices continue to weaken while leverage does not decrease, caution is warranted for a potential long squeeze after crowded longs.Nonfarm payrolls surged then retreated, with BTC pulling back from 87,000 to 84,000
Nonfarm data breakdown: only 29,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 85,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, combined with a significant downward revision of previous data and wages below expectations, indicating a clear cooling in the U.S. labor market.
After the data release, BTC briefly surged to 87,000 but quickly fell back to around 84,000, a typical case of good news being priced in and bulls taking profits. This rebound is driven by short-term sentiment and is not a trend reversal. The 87,000-90,000 range has heavy trapped positions, and uncertainties from oil prices, Middle East geopolitics, and elections remain.
Next, focus on the 82,000 support level, avoid blindly chasing longs, and patiently wait for the positive news to be fully digested.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
⚠️Personal review record, not trading advice, market volatility is high, manage position risk well. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Nonfarm Night: The data cracked, the market is first stunned in respect
At 8:30, the data landed. Nonfarm jobs increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%. No soft landing yet, first heard the sound of ice cracking.
All the bearish cards have been played: consumer confidence collapsed to the lowest since 2014, job vacancies hit a five-month low, hiring intentions the worst in fifteen years, tech layoffs surged 77% in a single month. That ADP 90,000 was just a smokescreen.
The job market isn’t frozen, it’s directly cracked. Bosses neither lay off nor hire, now they’re even too lazy to pretend.
Market’s first reaction: rate hike expectations plunged, bets on rate cuts heated up. But don’t celebrate too early—the data is so bad that recession trades may outweigh rate cut trades. The old script of risk assets surging then falling will likely replay tonight.
Market scene: BTC has been stuck in a triangle between 82,800 and 85,200 for three days. Once the data came out, it first spiked up, then swept down, killing both bulls and bears. ETH followed the drop but not the rise, clearly weak.
My rule remains unchanged: when the trigger fires, don’t shoot bullets recklessly. Wait for the first wave of emotions to pass, then see if it stabilizes.
Is tonight’s nonfarm the solid proof of a soft landing, or the start of a recession? The market itself is still searching for answers.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $TRUMP 📌Detailed Timeline of Trump's Crypto Dinner
✅ November 12: $TRUMP position snapshot, selecting the top 185 holders to qualify for the dinner. Pre-snapshot accumulation rally, post-snapshot accumulation logic fades.
✅ November 12–November 22: Expectation fermentation window, market speculation on Trump's crypto-friendly remarks, boosting crypto market sentiment, favorable for BTC short-term.
✅ November 22: Washington closed-door dinner, Trump delivers crypto speech. Day prone to pulse rally, highest risk of profit-taking.
✅ After November 22: Theme hype ends, market returns to Fed, nonfarm macro mainline.$BTC $ETH Nonfarm night, the market once again shows a "pump and dump"! Last night's data revised down for July and August, BTC surged near 87300 then faced pressure and fell back, hitting a low of 83900; ETH weakened in sync.
Data below expectations, overall positive for crypto, October rate hike expectations cool down again, no short-term bearish pressure. Considering the market, the bullish pattern remains, indicating the bull run is not over yet. Clear strategy: don't chase highs, keep buying on dips! If you time the rhythm right, you can profit with the trend.
BTC short-term dip to watch around 83000-82000, target resistance at 86000-87000 range, break above to look at 88000-90000.
ETH short-term dip support at 2650-2600 to watch, defend 2560. Exit if broken, target 2750-2800-2900. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Rules must not be broken, the base position must not be lost, once the chips are let go, chasing highs later will only cause heartache!
① Hold the base position firmly, never get off easily; missing out is the biggest punishment.
② Use a small position to play swings, sell high and buy low to dilute cost; swings are just a side dish, not the main business.
③ Don’t panic during sudden sharp drops; if fundamentals haven’t collapsed, build positions gradually, never go all in at once.
Remember: don’t recklessly cut losses when prices fall, don’t blindly chase highs when prices rise.
In a bull market crash, it’s not about insight but ironclad rules; only by holding the base position can you welcome the main rise! #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% ETF all hit the brakes, funds are just on a "midfield break"
$BTC and $ETH spot ETFs have seen their first simultaneous net outflow since this round of rebound, breaking the continuous inflow rhythm. Rather than saying funds are retreating, it's more like short-term traders are cashing out first, while institutions are waiting for the non-farm payroll and Federal Reserve statements.
Three factors cool down the heat: U.S. Treasury yields remain around 5.6%, making risk-free assets very attractive; after the PCE positive news, funds choose to take profits first; AI giant IPOs are intensive, diverting hot money from the market.
For BTC, short-term pressure does not mean a bear market. The key support is at 82,500 below, and strong resistance remains at 87,200 above. ETF outflows reflect a sentiment retreat, not a trend reversal; the direction depends on Friday's non-farm payroll.
In terms of operation, don't chase the rally; wait for a pullback to stabilize at 84,000 to lightly go long, with a stop loss at 83,000 and targets at 85,000/86,000. Watch ETH for linkage, and be more cautious with smaller coins like ZEC.
Money is just temporarily moving elsewhere, not necessarily gone. Control positions before the non-farm payroll and wait for signals before acting. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Dog whistle: extra meal served.
A pot of green K-lines is served, saying: while it's hot.
Brothers, the big one is coming.
It's not altcoin season.
It's a guillotine.
$WIF slid from 1.84 to 1.52, down 9% intraday.
EMA5, 10, 20 are flowering downward, bearish alignment.
Each rebound is weaker than the last, volume shrinks to a needle, buying interest is dead, only the group is shouting orders.
Once support breaks, it's a slide.
Current price 1.52, late consolidation phase, high probability of going down.
Light short positions, set stop loss properly, target below 1.35.
Don't go all in, probe first, then chase if right.
I'm not panicking.
The ones panicking are those still waiting for a "pin bar reversal."
Hugs.
You are not a chump,
You are the appetizer when the dog master serves extra meals. $BTC $ETH
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨 The 84,000 level, to be honest, I don't really feel much about it.
Not pretending. A 1.61% intraday fluctuation like this is really nothing for $BTC.
Current price is 83,958, dropping back below 84,000.
The key point is this: is this drop because someone is really selling, or is it because there aren't enough buyers and sellers, so the price just slid down on its own?
No volume data was given in the material, so I won't guess.
But those holding long-term should understand, we've seen this scale of pullback many times over the past few years.
What really needs watching isn't how much it drops today, but whether anyone steps in at the 80,000 whole number level.
To be frank: those who hold long ago stopped paying attention to these small intraday ups and downs; those who watch every day are actually the most likely to get shaken out by such fluctuations.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $AAVE AAVE surged from $60 to $187, not a meme coin, but a “DeFi blue chip being revalued”
Why has it been rallying all the way? Three intertwined reasons:
Fundamentals recovery: TVL bounced back from the year's low of 11.99 billion to 19.08 billion, V4 deposits broke 1 billion in September, and on Base, Apple/Nvidia/Tesla and 7 other tokenized US stocks are used as collateral to borrow USDC—RWA is not just a PPT, it can actually lend.
Tokenomics story change: Aavenomics 3.0 proposes “buyback + burn,” with a current buyback budget of 50 million per year; if burning is implemented = permanent deflation. The market is speculating on the “possibility,” not “execution.”
Chip squeeze: Whales net bought 16 times the normal amount, 100K+ large transfers surged, shorts were squeezed—3.82 million cleared in 24h, shorts hold 3.26 million; the rise is driven by both capital and narrative.
170–175 = breakout zone pullback support
187.5 = 10.2 peak, daily close below = fake strength
200 = sentiment barrier, not fundamentals
Buybacks were actually paused after the April exploit, and burning is still at “Stani said considering” stage
BTC is dead at 84K, AAVE rallies at 179—
It’s not the market leading it, but the “DeFi lending = on-chain bank stocks” valuation re-rating running ahead.
(Not investment advice · for reference only) $AAVE 如果今晚美股的风险偏好只是"温和回暖"，那么加密这边最该盯的就不是涨没涨，而是谁在悄悄掉队。 你有没有发现，纳指和标普只是小步走，真正抢镜的却是另一批名字？ QQQ 开盘涨 0.30%，SPY 涨 0.18%，这种幅度不算风险偏好全面打开，更像是在谨慎里挑方向。IBM 涨 5.05%，RKLB 涨 2.18%，KORU 涨 2.30%，这些偏主题、偏高弹性的标的明显更活跃；而 INTW 这类 2 倍杠杆 INTC 产品反而跌 2.78%。同一个夜晚，指数在微笑，杠杆端却在打喷嚏，这个细节比指数本身更有意思。 我会把它理解成：市场不是没钱，而是不愿意为"不够确定的故事"付溢价。钱在挑更干净、更直接的叙事，而不是无差别涌进高波动资产。放到 crypto 里，这种节奏通常先照在 BTC 和 ETH 身上——它们更像风险偏好的温度计，而不是第一波冲锋队。BTC 若只是稳住、不主动放量，说明大资金还在观察；ETH 若相对抗跌，说明资金愿意留在主流里等下一句话；山寨则更容易被抽走注意力，因为当外部高 beta 都开始挑剔时，山寨的"想象力溢价"最先被压。 偏多的路径也不是没有。只要 QQQ、SPY#BTC, ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital heat, and the real cooling in the market may not be the price but the "chasing high capital."
This is the real focus for BTC and ETH going forward.
The latest data shows that the US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about $8.2 million on October 1; previously, on September 30, there was a net outflow of about $152 million.
ETH has seen similar changes, with continuous outflows at the beginning of October, totaling about $118 million in recent days.
But one detail is worth noting:
ETF capital cooling does not mean a complete withdrawal of market funds.
Throughout September, BTC spot ETFs still recorded a net inflow of about $2.65 billion, and ETH ETFs also had a net inflow of about $830 million.
So now it looks more like—after initial capital entry, short-term divergences are starting to appear.
BTC prices remain relatively high, but ETF capital has not continued to expand in sync.
This forms a signal worth observing:
Prices can still hold, but are new funds willing to continue the relay?
If ETFs resume sustained inflows later, it indicates that capital heat may only be temporarily paused.
But if prices remain high while ETFs continue to see outflows, market focus may shift from "can it keep rising" to "who is still providing new buying power."
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Large swaps being front-run is not just about spending a bit more Gas
Public mempools expose the direction, size, and slippage limits of pending transactions. Searchers seeing a large swap can buy in front to push the price up, then sell behind it for profit, causing the user to execute at a worse price—this is a common front-running attack. The loss may not appear as a separate fee but is hidden in the execution price difference. Setting slippage very wide can increase the chance of success but also leaves more room for front-running; setting it too narrow may cause repeated failures during volatility and waste Gas. For $ETH users, it is important to set reasonable boundaries based on liquidity and order size, splitting orders or using protected trading paths when necessary. MEV is not always theft; arbitrage can help align prices across markets, but exploiting user-visible intentions to cause worse execution prices is indeed a user experience and fairness issue. Successful execution does not guarantee quality.
Users should also compare the order size relative to pool depth. The price impact of the same amount varies greatly across different pools; the so-called market price is not infinitely supplied. Private trading paths can reduce intention exposure but introduce new operator dependencies.The world's largest Bitcoin holding company (Strategy) has just surpassed the market value of Saudi National Bank
Ranked 385th among global publicly listed companies
Note: This ranking is based on market value, not profit or asset size
According to this ranking, the leap is due to a rebound in equity
The company's market value rose from $39.3 billion on June 22 to $70.9 billion on September 21
At the same time, the Bitcoin price rebounded and broke through $85,000
Previously, people thought "Bitcoin companies" couldn't compare with real big banks, but now, measured by "total company market value," it has already pushed ahead of major banks
This is regarded as a milestone in the Bitcoin community: it shows that Bitcoin treasury strategies can support a "bank-level" company scale
But essentially, the market value is still supported by Bitcoin price increases, not by traditional banking business profits
Bitcoin goes up → stock goes up → ranking goes up
If Bitcoin falls, the ranking may immediately drop backBrothers, the third sister has already hung on the tree.
Wow, another $276 million lost on short positions in 24 hours. 😂
I look down at my own short positions... hmm, suddenly this loss doesn't feel so lonely.
BTC is still hovering above 86K, shorts have already paid $276 million. The profits made from going long earlier have been largely given back with this round of trades. This market is really interesting: when making money, you feel pretty smart, but as soon as the direction changes, you immediately provide liquidity for others. 😂
Non-farm payroll just passed, ETFs are flowing out, and capital heat is cooling down. Shorts are being liquidated, longs don’t dare to chase, and the market is stuck grinding. At times like this, the biggest fear is stubbornness—if the direction is wrong, admit it, don’t hold on hard. Surviving is more important than breaking even.
$BTC $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC is now around 84500. After the non-farm payroll data was released last night, it briefly surged to 87200, then fell back to around 84500 this morning, with $ETH around 2600.
On the macro side: The dollar rose above 102, hitting a new high since April last year; the US military is sending a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, with troop increases up to 10,000. Trump stated that Iran has no way out if it doesn't sign the agreement. Brent crude is at 101.5, the 10-year US Treasury yield reached a high of 5.34, the highest since 2002, closing at 5.25.
September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, and the previous two months' data were revised down. US Treasury yields fell back to 5.15, and the market's expectation for an October rate hike dropped directly to 20%. Employment data softened, but with troop increases in the Middle East and oil prices as they are, the pressure on long-term bonds has not been fully relieved.
87000 is the strong resistance level this week. Support is seen at 83000; if broken, the next target is 81000.
Risk warning: Content is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% 专家视角：CELO回购＝销毁？答案是否定的 Celo社区中一个常见的误解是，CELOccelerate机制中的“回购”等同于“销毁” 。但事实并非如此。回购是获取代币的动作，而销毁是处置代币的决策，两者在Celo的治理框架中是分离的、有先后顺序的独立步骤。 回购：强制性的、程序化的价值捕获 CELOccelerate于2026年4月以97%的治理支持率通过，其核心机制是将网络净收入程序化地转化为CELO的买入需求。 具体流程是：排序器产生的净收入，在扣除OP Stack、EigenDA、Succinct等核心协议运营成本后，全部用于在公开市场上购买CELO，并发送至社区基金。一个独特的设计是，由于Celo支持用稳定币支付Gas费，这部分稳定币费用也会被程序化地转换为CELO，形成了与真实网络活动直接挂钩的持续买压。 这一机制的效果是显著的。提案通过后90天内，Celo手续费收入增长280%，同比增长104%。自4月以来，已累计回购850万枚CELO。 回购是自动的、强制性的。 只要网络在产生收入，购买行为就会发生，无需每次治理投票。 销毁：治理驱动的、可选的决策 与回购的自动化不同，销CryptoQuant just dealt the market a "hidden card": In the past 30 days, Bitcoin whales have cumulatively increased their holdings by 75,000 BTC.
At current prices, that's billions of dollars in chips quietly moving from panicked retail investors into the wallets of strong hands.
Don't just look at the numbers; focus on the structure:
• Retail fears, whales buy;
• Exchange balances are dropping, circulating supply is thinning;
• Big players don't shout out, they just accumulate;
• The quieter it is on-chain, the easier it is for big volatility to come later.
But don't imagine "whales buying = price pump tomorrow."
Whales buy positions and cost basis, not entry signals for you. They can withstand drawdowns, build positions in parts, and hedge with derivatives—you can copy their moves, but not their capital curve.
My understanding:
It's more like a "chip turnover period" now, not a confirmed breakout period.
• If spot buying continues + exchange outflows persist → supply tightens, making it easier to bounce with any catalyst;
• If macro weakens and risk assets get devalued → whales can get trapped too, don't idolize big players.
Retail investors often make one mistake:
Seeing a whale address move and putting all their positions on it.
Those who truly make money don't "rush with the whales," but watch what whales are doing, how many bullets they keep, and where to set stop losses.
In short:
Whales moving coins doesn't mean you should blindly buy; but a market where no one is moving coins is the one with no prospects.🔍 Reviewing the ledgers of four small coins on Saturday morning: who's making money and who's taking hits
$HYPE 90.848, up 3.92%, the only one making money among the four. After grinding from 87 for a week, it finally stood back at 90. The foundation of 97% protocol revenue buybacks is there, real income supports it, and after a big drop, some buyers stepped in. But note that revenue has declined quarter-over-quarter for four consecutive quarters. The 90 level is a repeatedly tested threshold; if it holds, look for 95, if not, it will fall back to 88.
$BICO 0.02241, up 0.99%, lukewarm. The account abstraction sector has a long-term story, but no short-term capital support. It has hovered around 0.022 for a week; this kind of coin just jumps up and down waiting for a catalyst. Don't add or sell at this level; hold as long as 0.02 doesn't break.
$BEAT 0.09091, down 1.26%, the worst performer among the four. A microcap speculative coin with a market cap of just over 20 million, volatility is ten times that of mainstream coins. When the market rises and it falls, it means funds are exiting. Don't mistake this drop for a bottom; one day up, three days down is normal. Keep a very small position just for watching.
$RE 0.50662, down 1.31%, being drained. The DeFi insurance plus RWA logic hasn't changed; 0.5 has held for a month but almost broke today. The bigger the market rises, the more small coins get drained. 0.48 is the bottom line; if it breaks, the logic needs to be reconsidered.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Four small coins, four states: HYPE stands at 90, BICO sideways, BEAT avoid, RE waiting for wind. Don't add positions in small coins over the weekend. The AAVE ledger looks strange today.
SELL: a wallet with Aave-team vesting provenance unloaded 50,000 AAVE → ~$8M USDC, averaging ~$160.
BUY: another whale accumulated 39,018 AAVE → ~$6.3M.
Then price did something awkward for the seller: OKX now shows ~$180.5, +6.2%/24h, after touching $187.9.
Two large wallets. Opposite decisions. So far, the chart has voted for the buyer. $GALA short-term cycle still stuck in the middle of the range
The short-term cycle is first regarded as being in the middle of the range, with no signs of a breakout. The recent high and low points in the past few hours are 0.002628 / 0.00248 USDT, and the just closed 5-minute candlestick is at 0.00259 USDT. The price position is neutral, with neither the upper nor lower reference extremes touched, so no directional choice can be made.
The trading volume also does not support a breakout judgment. The recent 15-minute volume has not significantly increased, indicating the market is not actively rotating positions at the current level, and the price is more likely to continue consolidating.
If subsequent closes retake the previous high with volume expansion, I will turn bullish; conversely, if the close falls below the previous low, the idea of range consolidation must be abandoned.#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
The sky is falling! 😱 Didn't institutions previously buy Bitcoin regardless of price?! 🤔️ Why are they all starting to run?!
The US Bitcoin spot ETF just had about $3.1 billion inflows over 9 consecutive days, but starting September 30, it had net outflows for two days totaling about $173 million.
Ethereum has also had net outflows for 3 days, with about $55.4 million leaving on October 1 alone.
Coinbase also said Bitcoin recently hit a yearly high on profit-taking, and spot buying has clearly slowed down.
$BTC is now consolidating between 85,000 and 86,000; only truly breaking above 86,000 would open the trend, with 82,000 as short-term support below.
$ETH just poked out of the 2,600 range, currently around 2,700 to 2,750. Resistance near 2,770; only if it breaks above can we look toward 2,800.
$SOL is currently around 120, with strong support at 118 below. Last week, the spot ETF set a weekly inflow record of about $188 million, but it has also seen outflows recently, with $5.9 million leaving on October 1.
Mainly, high interest rates have caused institutions to temporarily withdraw from risk assets! If rate hike expectations cool down, these players might bring money back into the crypto market!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 CryptoQuant: Bitcoin "whales" have cumulatively increased holdings by 75,000 BTC in the past 30 days
According to the latest statistics from the on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, after excluding exchange and mining pool addresses, Bitcoin whale addresses have net increased their holdings by 75,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Against the backdrop of ETF funds flowing out, whales continue to accumulate, creating a very interesting divergence in capital structure.
Personal view
This is a strong signal of medium- to long-term bottom support. Currently, ETFs are being redeemed by institutions, but whale funds are continuously absorbing chips at low levels, representing long-term large capital recognizing the allocation value at the current price. Whale funds are not short-term speculators; after buying, they usually lock their positions for the long term, which reduces market circulation supply and alleviates selling pressure.
However, this data alone should not be used to blindly chase a bullish trend. Whale accumulation does not mean the price will immediately surge; the accumulation phase is often accompanied by repeated oscillations and shakeouts. At the same time, on the macro level, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, which continues to be the core variable suppressing the market. Even if whales are buying, if long-term interest rates continue to rise, the market will still experience deep corrections.
From a trading perspective, on-chain data is suitable for judging bottom support but not for short-term contract long positions. Do not heavily open long positions just because whales are accumulating; leverage positions must be strictly controlled, and stop-losses should be well set. Key follow-ups: whether the whale accumulation trend can continue and whether ETF funds return to net inflows.I estimate the market won't have much big movement these two days; some might find it boring.
But investing itself is like this, and so is life; there will always be a period of repetition and dullness. What truly tests people is often not the sharp rises and falls, but these days that require patience to endure.
$BTC surged near 87,000, with a single-day increase of over 3%. The market looks strong, but there are still many trapped positions in the 87,000–90,000 range, so breaking through directly is not easy.
The non-farm payroll boost is more of a short-term stimulus; after the sentiment is realized, a pullback still needs to be guarded against. Plus, with high oil prices, the Iran situation, potential disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, and the upcoming US elections, there are still many variables ahead.
$ETH is relatively much weaker.
I'm still holding the short position at 2,671, currently with a slight floating loss near 2,750, but not worried for now. 2,800 remains a key resistance; ETF funds continue to flow out, and the market's new narrative is weak. This rebound mostly follows BTC.
$ZEC is a different play.
The privacy sector logic remains, but $ZEC's volatility is too high, and short-term moves are mostly driven by capital. It can be watched, but position size must be controlled.
The hardest part of the market to endure is sometimes not the decline, but when nothing happens.
Be patient and wait; opportunities often aren't chased out but waited out.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 $ETH 🔥 ETH 2,680: No follow-through after non-farm payrolls, touched 2,777 then fell back to original position — Deputy Commander "fake strength"
24h high 2,774–2,777, low 2,650–2,677, tried 2,777 but no breakout, directly fell back to 2,680 to lick wounds.
Summary in one sentence:
2,700 = closing brick, failure to hold = weak rebound
2,775–2,807 = old resistance wall, touched with low volume = fake revival
2,640 = retrace golden pit, 4H close below → 2,600
2,600 = strong bottom line, break means altcoin season delay
2,390 = 9.16 bottom, daily close not below weekly line means not dead
Capital flow contradiction:
10/1 ETH ETF -55.4 million (FETH -23.5 million / ETHE -20.4 million), BTC ETF +102.7 million — money flows to BTC, ETH is propped up by derivatives.
Soft non-farm → BTC surged to 87K, ETH only reached 2,777, ETH/BTC did not flip, indicating "Deputy Commander" is still a follower.
BTC benefits from macro dividends, ETH gets the leftovers.
No chasing back to 2680, weak rebound at 2700 with low volume = run; only with volume above 2777 can we talk about 2900 again.
This is not the eve of a breakout, it’s "ETF doesn’t feed, price pretends to be strong."
(Not investment advice · For reference only) $ETH Staring at the screen for a long time, apart from the background noise, it's so quiet it makes you anxious. This kind of low-volume market is the easiest to make your mind overheat, always feeling like the market is holding back a big move. Even just thinking about opening the trading interface makes your fingertips tremble. Actually, I've seen through it long ago; this is purely ineffective fluctuation. It took paying a lot of tuition fees in this circle to understand that many times losing money is just because you panic and recklessly throw yourself in. Staring at dull indicators and forcing trades, that compulsive urge to operate, is the biggest enemy in trading. Throw the mouse aside, go to the balcony for some fresh air, and resist that urge to act—it's more effective than any technical analysis.
$TAO $RENDER $NEAR Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated based on order book, excluding fees
$2Z sell slippage increases significantly with order size: slippage for sell orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT are 0.19% and 0.81%, respectively. Large order slippage is about 0.61 percentage points higher.
$SOON buy slippage increases significantly with order size: slippage for buy orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT are 0.07% and 0.36%, respectively. Large order slippage is about 0.29 percentage points higher.
$NIGHT sell slippage increases significantly with order size: slippage for sell orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT are 0.09% and 0.39%, respectively. Large order slippage is about 0.30 percentage points higher.$ZEC ETF short-term capital outflows, hacker rumor sentiment shocks, and high-leverage long positions approaching liquidation lines form triple pressure; meanwhile, whale buying on dips, NU7 upgrade testnet progress, and THORChain integration landing provide medium- to long-term fundamental support.
Key observation signals: If ZEC can hold $1,233* and reclaim $1,410, an upward trend recovery is expected; if the daily close falls below $1,233, further downward testing of the $1,100-$1,000 range is possible. In the short term, closely monitor the capital flow changes of the Grayscale ETF and the liquidation risk of leveraged long positions near $1,275
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Live trading mutual learning, daily check-in 54
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
$BTC $ZEC $SOL
Yesterday, with BTC surging at noon, I recovered quite a bit of losses,
I exited most positions and left OKB and DASH as my layout,
ignored everything along the way, thinking the position size wasn’t large, so I’d take it slow.
But when I woke up around 4 o’clock, it scared me to death; although I had taken out a lot
for income collection, the remaining positions were almost liquidated, dropping 10%, it was brutal.
No choice, lost over two hundred but managed to recover the income funds, added positions at the low,
fortunately, after more than two hours, I recovered most of it, returned everything, kept the original positions, and went back to sleep.
Real-time account 11100, continuing the fightCelo网络Q3收入大涨21%！CELOccelerate代币经济学成效显著，已回购850万枚$CELO 根据Celo官方发布的最新数据，Celo网络在2026年第三季度（Q3）交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。得益于CELOccelerate代币经济学的全面实施，网络收入持续攀升，价值捕获飞轮正在加速运转。 一、收入数据：连续三个季度强劲增长 根据growthepie的数据，Celo网络的季度收入呈现出稳步攀升的态势： Q1收入为7.8万美元； Q2收入跃升至29.8万美元； Q3收入进一步增长至36.1万美元。 这意味着，Celo网络Q3收入环比增长了21%，较Q1更是实现了超过360%的惊人增幅。这一增长曲线清晰地表明，随着Celo生态的持续扩张，尤其是稳定币支付和链上交易量的爆发，网络的实际经济产出正在快速做大。 二、CELOccelerate机制：100%净收入回流社区 这份亮眼数据的背后，是CELOccelerate代币经济学提案的落地。该提案于今年第二季度正式实施，彻底重塑了Celo的价值分配逻辑。 其核心机制在于：Celo网络产生的100%净收入，全部回流给社区。具体而言，排序295 million USD stolen, compensated at 1%.
Outsiders seeing this number would definitely react first: Is this even called compensation?
No mistake. For every 1 USDT lost, you get 1 DFX token, which currently is worth 0.0104 USD.
Roughly calculated, that's about a 1% compensation.
What about the remaining 99%? It turns into a lottery ticket called DFX.
The project team says the compensation pool will be gradually replenished with protocol revenue, and Tether has promised to pay up to 127.5 million.
Sounds quite sincere.
But when the revenue will come and whether the token price can hold up are all question marks.
I'm not saying they ran away; acknowledging the loss and allowing claims is better than many who just play dead.
It's just that with this ratio, outsiders find it ridiculous, insiders find it familiar.
As an old investor, I can only smile after reading this; after all, having been cut before, this one doesn't make much difference.
#NEAR生态协议遭攻击致币价下跌近10%
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $USDT $AAOI Sometimes I really want to slap myself, ignoring the solid old tech stock $AAOI and instead opening positions in two altcoins ($HYPE, $ZEN), and ended up holding both with losses 😅
$AAOI $LITE These two old tech stocks are expected to gap up again next Monday, especially Lumentum, which is already approaching its historical highs
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $339 million, with short positions liquidated as high as $260 million, and long positions only $78.93 million. Ethereum alone liquidated $91.89 million, with shorts suffering heavy losses in the recent rebound.
Key observation signals: If $ETH can volume-wise hold above $2,700, it is expected to retest the $2,777-$2,800 range; if $2,646 (24H low) is lost, it may further test the key support area at $2,626. If it breaks below $2,565, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.238 billion; conversely, breaking above $2,832 will see short liquidation intensity reach $1.132 billion. Before the direction is clear, it is not advisable to heavily bet within a narrow range.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Hello brothers and sisters
BTC touched 87239 last night and was pushed back,
It didn't even touch the previous high of 87374.
Brothers, this clearly indicates a huge sell order pressure above 87000.
I believe this position is deliberately suppressed by the main force.
Why?
Because above 87000 is all previous high trapped positions, the main force won't easily push it up to let others break even.
It must grind between 84000-87000 for a few days,
washing out the weak hands before a real breakout.
I think the next few days will be volatile.
Don't chase above 87000, you can buy below 84000.
Wait for a real volume breakout above the previous high of 87300,
then it's not too late to go long.
In a volatile range, chasing highs and selling lows is the biggest taboo.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ETH Ancient whale movements coexist with continuous accumulation
Ancient whale movements: An ancient whale who purchased 560,000 ETH at a cost of $0.31 in 2015 transferred 133,298 ETH (approximately $356 million) to a new address on October 1, marking the whale's first single transfer exceeding 100 million in 4 years. This address still holds about 426,000 ETH, valued at approximately $1.13 billion at current prices. Whether it will sell later is a market focus.
Continuous accumulation: Address 0xC1C has accumulated 12,134 ETH (worth $32.41 million) since September 2, at an average price of $2,671, and has now deposited them into Aave. Another whale added 5,000 ETH (about $13.43 million) again on October 1. Over the past week, Ethereum whales overall increased their holdings by about 60,000 ETH ($162 million) against the trend, in sharp contrast to Bitcoin whales reducing their holdings by 30,000 BTC.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $BTC Three ways the market values it
$BTC is valued through scarcity, liquidity, and its potential role as a reserve asset for cryptocurrencies. Institutional flows are important.
$ETH is valued through on-chain activity: stablecoins, decentralized finance, fees, and ecosystem capital.
$SOL carries a growth narrative: users, transactions, applications, and liquidity must expand to support higher valuations.
Same market, but different frameworks. Price is the outcome; capital flows and real activity require confirmation.