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【On-Chain Trading Update｜BTC】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $84,234
▪ Transaction amount this time: $842,340
▪ Leverage: 16x
Note: This address has earned over $253,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +10.18% Bitcoin ETF has seen inflows for 9 consecutive days while ETH has experienced outflows, with funds tentatively rotating from mainstream coins to high-volatility assets like UNI. However, the overall market remains a zero-sum game. My judgment is that the short-term trend is more sideways and not suitable for chasing highs. The current quote is 9.139, up only 1.2% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 15.06 million. The funding rate of 0.0074% indicates mild bullish sentiment, and the open interest of 5.856 million shows no significant increase in positions; the order book buy/sell ratio is 0.79, with sell orders at 12,000 outweighing buy orders at 9,589. The strong resistance above is at 9.244, and the intraday bottom line is at 8.719. Although the four-hour chart is rising, the one-hour chart has weakened, so first watch for a pullback to confirm. Discipline-wise, only place long orders at 9.052, stop loss at 8.958, target at 9.238, and exit at the target price; if it rebounds to 9.227, lightly short with a stop loss at 9.283 and a target at 9.061. Single position size should not exceed 2% of total funds, do not add to losing positions or hold through breakouts.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$UNI#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $UNI $ORCL Oracle's drop this time is quite severe
The high was 250.88, with concentrated holdings around 160-210. There are too many trapped positions, which will create upward pressure, causing the stock price to consolidate at a low level.
I've analyzed Oracle before; the company is good, fundamentals are solid, and valuation is normal. But buying in now is indeed a bit early.
When buying US stock tokens, whether contracts or spot, you must be clear about your desired cost price. Unless the company has a financial scandal, a major crash is unlikely. Managing your position well makes it relatively easy to profit.
I plan to reduce my position at 135, then add half a position every 5% drop, keeping the cost around 130. I'll try to set the liquidation line around 100.
I believe Oracle returning to 200 is just a matter of time. Don't rush to succeed; otherwise, when it reaches 200, you might find your position gone...
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 Market Notes: BTC leads, ETH waits, ZEC deflates bubbles
$BTC is tugging around 83459, with 83000 as a short-term anchor. The drop from 87399 looks more like shaking off weak holders than a trend reversal. As long as the daily support between 78625—78000 holds, the overall direction remains bullish, so no need to panic on sharp dips.
$ETH is reported at 2677, facing resistance around 2807, digesting gains in the 2600—2700 range. After a 57% rise in 90 days, chasing further gains is less cost-effective; 2444 is support below, and buying interest near 2500 can be observed. Before the market picks a direction, spot trading is more relaxed than futures.
$ZEC surged to 1697 then entered consolidation, pulling back 9.22% over 7 days, but still up nearly 500% over 180 days with strong profit-taking pressure. 1265 is support; as a volatile altcoin, chasing highs risks losses. If participating, stagger buys between 1300—1350, prioritize spot, and be cautious of stop-loss triggers in futures.
Not investment advice.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 快照：2026-10-01 23:56:08（Asia/Shanghai）。当前未结束K线可能参与实时预警。 扫描：核心86个，成功78个，失败8个；当前涨幅Top20对过去48小时信号提前命中率：10.0%（2/20）。 【正式提前预警（最多3个）】 暂无满足条件的标的。 【预备观察（最多5个）】 1. BNB-USDT｜基础5｜质量58｜24H额5.47百万 现价 765.9｜入场 779.4～791.091｜触发 779.4 止损 744.9555｜止盈1 845.6805｜止盈2 885.9705 依据：接近4H箱体上沿、4H低点抬高、4H双底收回；日/4H放量 0.41/1.75；24H -0.52%，7日 -1.39%。等待进入入场区并确认触发 【Top10潜伏池】 1. STX-USDT｜基础11｜质量100｜24H额8.30百万 现价 0.3878｜入场 0.384～0.38976｜触发 0.384 止损 0.3062365｜止盈1 0.50784525｜止盈2 0.58848875 依据：突破60日高点、突破20日高点、4H双底收回；日/4H放量 3.82/1.89；The first NEAR spot ETF has been listed in the United States, indicating that capital is still willing to pay a premium for the public chain narrative. BSB, as a high-volatility target in the same sector, benefits sentiment-wise. However, I judge this more as an emotional pulse rather than a trend reversal; chasing highs carries greater risk than opportunity.
A slight drop of 1.3% in 24 hours, quoted at 0.10143, with a turnover of only 739,000, showing clearly thin volume. The buy-sell strength ratio in the top ten order book levels is 0.39, with nearly two thousand sell orders pressing down, indicating significant short-term selling pressure. The funding rate remains positive at 0.0117%, with 12.06 million coins held; longs are still paying to hold positions, but the four-hour decline from the high is 10.99%, and the rebound momentum is weakening.
Strategically, if it pulls back near 0.09875, one can lightly go long with a stop loss at 0.0959 and a target of 0.1063; if it rebounds to 0.10415 and faces resistance, one can try shorting with a stop loss at 0.1068 and a target of 0.09992. Single position size should be controlled within 5% of total capital. In thin volume markets, slippage is large, so be sure to set stop losses.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BSB#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市
#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 $BSB A complex relationship of "benchmark traction" and "spread competition" is forming between U.S. Treasury yields and AI corporate bond yields.
The "rising tide lifts all boats" effect of the benchmark rate: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to about 5.17%, up nearly 1 percentage point since the beginning of the year. As the global anchor for asset pricing, the rise in U.S. Treasury yields directly increases the financing cost benchmark for AI companies, forcing them to offer more attractive returns to attract investors.
The "active competition" of credit spreads: The credit spread of AI corporate bonds relative to U.S. Treasuries has significantly widened. As of September 2026, the credit spread for AI-related issuers is about 115 basis points, higher than the broad investment-grade market’s 78 basis points. Advanced Micro Devices’ 10-year notes trade at a 90 basis point premium over Treasuries, while Meta’s data center project carries a premium of about 287.5 basis points. This spread advantage is driving Wall Street funds to migrate from U.S. Treasuries to AI bonds — institutional AI corporate bonds’ share rose from 10% at the start of the year to 30%, while U.S. Treasuries’ share dropped from 70% to 50%.
Competition and controversy coexist: The St. Louis Fed President bluntly stated that "AI corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries are engaged in a battle for funds." However, institutions like PIMCO believe there is currently insufficient evidence to show that AI bond issuance has directly "crowded out" U.S. Treasuries, as the investor bases for the two are not completely overlapping.
Overall, U.S. Treasury yields serve as the pricing benchmark for AI corporate bonds, while the spread advantage of AI bonds, in turn, diverts allocation funds from long-term U.S. Treasuries. The two form a dynamic relationship of mutual traction and competition in the long-end market.The first NEAR spot ETF has been listed in the United States, marking another step forward in the compliance of altcoins. Sentiment towards public chain assets like $CL is somewhat positive, but currently it is struggling to rise. I lean towards a rebound rather than a reversal. The market shows clear contradictions: both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are in decline. The current price of 92.29 has rebounded 3.71% from the 24-hour low of 88.86, but it is still 8.38% below the 4-hour high. The order book buy/sell ratio is 1.00, with sellers slightly dominant. The funding rate is 0.0000%, and open interest is 420,000 coins, indicating bulls are not in control. Strategically, consider light short positions at a rebound to 92.83, with a stop loss at 94.17 and a target of 89.35; if it pulls back to 88.63 and stabilizes, a short-term long position is possible, with a stop loss at 87.24 and a target of 91.47. Position size should not exceed 10%, and exit immediately if the price breaks these levels.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$CL #Iran receives a counterproposal from the US, US-Iran differences remain
#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 $CL #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved
That needle in the early morning was deep and sudden.
SOL first surged sharply, seemingly about to break through, but then softened and fell back, with the price barely moving while leverage positions collapsed. In 19 hours, the entire network liquidated $98.63 million, with long positions at $42.17 million, short positions at $56.46 million, the largest single liquidation at $6.17 million, and 5,834 people forced out, with a volatility of 4.12%.
BNB was no exception, jumping up and down, liquidating $52.18 million, with long positions at $31.45 million, short positions at $20.73 million, the largest single liquidation at $4.38 million, 3,927 people exited, with a volatility of 3.76%.
This is called two-way harvesting. When it looks like a waterfall drop, you short in, only to be pulled back by a lower wick; when it looks like a peak, you go long, only to be hammered down by an upper wick. The price stays in place, but accounts have already been wiped out.
$BTC $ETH $SOL ETF funds have shown a turning point, what is BTC's next hurdle?
BTC ETFs just finished a consecutive 9-day net inflow, totaling about $3 billion, but the latest data shows this inflow streak has ended, with a single day net outflow of approximately $149 million.
Meanwhile, BTC is still fluctuating around $84K, and market attention is starting to shift towards U.S. employment data and interest rate expectations.
📌 So now, don't just ask "Will BTC rise?"
What’s more worth watching is:
Can ETF funds return? Will U.S. Treasury yields continue to suppress risk appetite?
These two variables may determine the rhythm of the market in October.
#BTC #ETF #CryptoBTC vs US Treasuries: The Real Stress Test in October
BTC stands around $84K, but the real opponent might not be the bears, but the 5.3%+ US Treasury yields.
The 10-year US Treasury yield once rose to about 5.34%, and the 30-year is close to 5.7%, hitting multi-year highs. High yields are redefining the cost of capital for risk assets.
Interestingly: BTC just had a strong quarterly performance, and ETF funds had clearly flowed back earlier. Now the real question in the market is not "will it rise or not," but—
High interest rates vs ETF demand, who will take the lead first?
#BTC #Bitcoin #US Treasuries
--The real pressure on BTC may come from the 5.6% US Treasury yield
Don't just focus on the candlestick chart; what truly deserves attention is the rising liquidity cost.
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.3%, the 30-year yield exceeds 5.6%, and at the same time, the CCC-rated high-yield bond spreads have widened, clearly increasing financing pressure on low-rated companies.
📌 Even if inflation cools down, the Federal Reserve may not cut rates quickly; the market could enter a phase of "pause in rate hikes, with high rates maintained longer."
In the short term, the higher the yield, the greater the opportunity cost of funds facing BTC; but if high interest rates further impact companies, the bond market, and the financial system, it could instead reinforce BTC's liquidity and fiat credit narrative.
Without easing rates, BTC will struggle; what really needs to be observed is where the pressure from high interest rates will ultimately transmit.
#BTC #USTreasuryYield #CryptocurrencyThe tide of rate hike bets recedes, nonfarm payrolls take over the tone
The latest PCE gave the market some relief: core inflation was lower than expected, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%. The probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to 38%, and Goldman Sachs has also pushed the next move from October to December. However, there are still hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve who believe inflationary pressures have not dissipated and do not rule out another tightening within the year.
The focus then shifts to September's nonfarm payrolls. If employment is strong, the narrative of an overheating economy returns, and rate hike concerns will again suppress $BTC; if the data is moderate, tightening expectations will continue to cool, and risk assets may gain upward momentum.
The market has already entered a wait-and-see mode. BTC fell back after touching 85500, indicating significant selling pressure at high levels and that large funds are reluctant to chase gains before the data. Short-term support is watched at 82000, with resistance still at 85000.
In terms of operations, it is not advisable to heavily bet before the nonfarm payrolls are released. Betting right is luck; betting wrong is a cost. Wait for the data release and market pricing before deciding whether to participate.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 🔥$BTC, $ETH, $SOL all hit key integer levels, direction choice is imminent📊 $BTC $ETH $SOL
BTC currently at 84026.65, down slightly 0.19% in 24h, 84000 as a short-term sentiment anchor; ETH at 2703.59, down 1.18%, 2700 is the strong/weak dividing line; SOL at 120.05, back above 120. The three major assets are all at critical points, indicating intensified bulls and bears divergence, no effective breakout yet.
▫️BTC: 84000 is the touchstone. Only with volume expansion and stable close can it be expected to extend to 85000–86000; if quickly lost, the rebound may become a bull trap.
▫️ETH: 2700 determines rotation expectations. If it resists decline and recovers first, funds may flow back to Ethereum; breaking below drags market sentiment.
▫️SOL: 120 is the short-term lifeline. Holding steady with volume can target 122–125; if it falls back near 118, beware of a false breakout.
Don’t rush to chase the rally now. Focus on three points: whether support is effective, whether volume follows, and whether BTC can drive ETH and SOL resonance. Only when all three stand firm does risk appetite warm; if any lag behind, volatility will continue. Be cautious and wait for confirmation.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Iran received a counterproposal from the US, and the US-Iran differences remain. Geopolitical risk premiums could spill over into the crypto market at any time. $MMT, as a small-cap asset, is more sensitive to such news. I tend to have a short-term bearish bias and a medium-term view of a rebound with a divergence pattern. Although the short cycles of one hour and four hours show an upward trend, the 24-hour period has dropped 2.8%. The price difference is close to the upper high but has yet to break through, indicating a clear conflict between long- and short-term directions. The current price of 0.1864 has risen nearly 50% from the four-hour low. Chasing highs carries significant risk. The trading volume is only 910,000, indicating thin capital participation and vulnerability to large sell orders creating traps. The top 10 order book buy orders total 20,000, and sell orders total 18,000, with buyers slightly dominant. The funding rate of 0.0050% is relatively neutral. The open interest of 8,832,000 coin-margined contracts indicates that bulls have not yet massively withdrawn. The sentiment is hesitation rather than panic. Strategically, lightly short at a rebound to 0.1907 with a stop loss at 0.1943 and a target of 0.1813; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 0.1828, consider going long with a stop loss at 0.1796 and a target of 0.1912. Keep position size under 10%, and avoid heavy positions before geopolitical news settles.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$MMT#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 $MMT In recent major developments in the US stock market, AI competition is shifting from models to ecosystem entry points and capital endurance. Nvidia, Apple, and Meta are the most representative.
Nvidia has added $150 billion to its buyback program, with total authorization reaching $235 billion, setting a record for US companies. This supports the stock price in the short term and also suggests that the high-growth phase is stabilizing; it is transitioning from a "shovel seller" to a "capital manager," using cash flow to maintain shareholder confidence.
On October 13, Apple will launch the smart home hub HomeHub and update the HomePod mini and Apple TV 4K. Centered on the upgraded Siri AI as the core entry point, the goal is to upgrade HomeKit from accessory control to a home AI hub, directly competing with Google and Amazon.
In the coming months, Meta will integrate the AI agent Muse into AI glasses, which can recognize the content in front of the user and perform tasks after voice activation. Muse was downloaded 2.8 million times within 12 days of launch but was blocked from accessing the e-commerce platform by Amazon citing security and compliance reasons, highlighting the intensifying competition for AI agent and platform ecosystem entry points.
Overall, AI competition has shifted from model capabilities to a comprehensive battle involving computing power capital, home scenarios, and wearable entry points. Whoever controls computing power, scenarios, and user entry points simultaneously is more likely to gain the advantage.CORE 100x Scenario: BTC Surpasses 150,000 + Hard Fork Perfectly Implemented + 10 Billion Locked, Is Everything Ready?
⚠️ For research review only, not investment advice. A 100x gain is a low-probability event; even if the three major conditions are met, it does not guarantee a 100x surge.
The market widely shares three prerequisites for CORE to 100x: BTC stabilizes above $150,000, the hard fork is smoothly implemented destroying excess tokens, and on-chain BTC staking locks exceed $10 billion. Many believe that once these three are all in place, the 100x scenario is fully prepared.
However, these are necessary but not sufficient conditions. A BTC rally only brings bull market liquidity; during a bull market, capital tends to diversify across sectors. The BTCFi sector faces many competitors, making capital easily diverted. The hard fork token burn can only fix token supply loopholes but cannot eliminate governance risks from the 21-node centralization; centralization concerns will continue to suppress valuation.
The 10 billion locked is just the asset scale on paper; the ecosystem must generate sustained real business revenue. If TVL is inflated without stable cash flow, valuation growth is hard to sustain.
As the I Ching says, "Heaven's way avoids fullness; perfection is hard to achieve." Even if all three conditions are met, risks like regulation and selling pressure remain. To trigger a 100x, beyond these three points, substantial governance improvements and BTCFi becoming the main theme of this bull market are also needed. Multiple key factors must resonate for it to be possible.Zcash 在9月经历一轮强势上涨后，目前重新回到 $1.3K 附近。📊 但眼下市场关注的重点，已经不只是价格走势，更重要的是即将到来的 NU7 网络升级 👀 ⚙️ NU7： 网络性能升级值得关注 ⏱️ 目标区块时间： 75秒 → 25秒 🧪 测试网： 预计 10月6日前后 🚀 主网： 预计 11月5日前后 如果升级按计划推进，更快的区块确认速度可能成为ZEC后续生态发展的重要观察点。 📌 接下来重点关注： • NU7测试网是否按计划上线 • 主网上线时间及实际表现 • 升级前后的资金流与市场情绪 • $ZEC 能否守住关键价格区域 技术升级是催化剂，但价格能否持续走强仍需要成交量和市场资金进一步确认。不追涨，重点观察事件落地后的真实表现。 #ZEC #Zcash #Crypto #NU7 #OKXNonfarm payrolls not yet released, crypto market first "grinds"
With the interest rate hike timing postponed, the market is turning its attention to the September nonfarm payrolls. The market is not rushing to choose a direction, more like a chip exchange.
$BTC once tested 84360, appearing ready to break through, but the buying momentum did not continue, then it fell back to around 83200; $ETH also softened after touching 2720, repeatedly tugging around 2680. The upward push lacks volume, the drop is not deep, bulls dare not chase, bears are reluctant to push down.
Short-term range is gradually becoming clear: BTC faces resistance at 84300—84500 above, and support at 82800—83000 below; ETH is temporarily seen in a 2660—2720 box. At this time, being dragged by a few hundred points of fluctuation makes it easiest to get hit back and forth.
Capital flow is also diverging: Bitcoin ETF has had net inflows for 9 consecutive days, while ETH has turned to outflows. This indicates that funds still have preferences, but it is not a full-scale attack.
Before the nonfarm data is released, the market will most likely continue to grind. In a volatile market, patience is key, not speed. Wait for volume cooperation and a true breakout of the range before discussing trends.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 The frequent new highs in U.S. Treasury yields are weighing on risk appetite, and KAITO is hard to remain unaffected. The short-term rebound looks more like an oversold correction rather than a reversal. Although the four-hour chart still shows an upward structure, the one-hour chart has fallen nearly 6% from the high, so I tend to expect consolidation first.
Current price is 0.3409, down 3.2% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 17.52 million. The slightly negative funding rate indicates that the long position crowding is not high. The order book buy/sell ratio is 0.89, with selling pressure slightly dominant. Resistance is at 0.3579 above, and key support is at 0.3338 below; if broken, it opens the downside.
Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback near 0.3345, stop loss at 0.3268, target at 0.3572; if volume breaks support downward, then switch to wait and see. Keep position size within 20%, do not hold through a breakout.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$KAITO#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $KAITO The euro has weakened for four consecutive days, falling to its lowest level since May 2025, while the dollar has simultaneously hit new highs. This rise and fall actually reflect the same phenomenon: capital is moving towards dollar assets.
This is not a trivial matter for crypto. $BTC is priced in dollars; the stronger the dollar, the higher the cost of buying with other currencies, and capital is more inclined to stay in dollars first, naturally suppressing risk appetite.
But don’t interpret this as a one-way signal. Exchange rates reflect relative strength and weakness; the euro’s weakness also has its own fundamental reasons and does not mean the dollar can continuously drain liquidity. Watch three things next: whether the euro can stop falling, whether the dollar will continue to accelerate or start to plateau, and whether the overall market volume and volatility are expanding in sync. If the dollar surges but the market remains flat, it means the pressure has been absorbed; if the market weakens along with the dollar, this clue should be factored into your analysis.U.S. Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved, and risk assets are under pressure. SOL is hard to stand alone; I tend to be short-term bearish and wait for stabilization in the mid-term.
Down 1.5% in 24h to 117.51, the high of 120.53 failed to hold. Funding rate -0.0038%, open interest 2.948 million, short sentiment moderate. The top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.83, selling pressure dominates. 1-hour distance from low is only 0.52%, 116.62 is short-term support, 120.53 is resistance.
Strategy: Light short position on rebound to 119.35, stop loss at 121.15, target 116.85. If it pulls back to 116.45 and stabilizes, consider short-term long, stop loss at 115.15, target 119.25. Single position no more than 5%, exit on breakout.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$SOL#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $SOL $BTC on the eve of the Nonfarm Payrolls: What the market is really waiting for is not just a single number
The US September Nonfarm Payrolls will be released tomorrow night at 20:30, with market expectations varying widely: Reuters about 90,000, Dow Jones about 84,000, Goldman Sachs 80,000, Bank of America 60,000, and an unemployment rate expectation of 4.1%. Today's ADP new jobs added 90,000, higher than expected.
BTC has mainly fluctuated between $82,600 and $85,600 in the past 72 hours, currently around $83,433.
📌 More than just the single Nonfarm number, what deserves attention is the combination of unemployment rate + wages + rate cut expectations, as well as BTC's actual reaction in the first hour after the data release.
Don't rush to take sides early; first see how the market trades.
#BTC #ETH #BitcoinBTC funds are still flowing in, while ETH shows divergence
BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling about $3.08 billion, but the marginal strength has clearly cooled down, with a single-day inflow of only $66.19 million on September 29.
At the same time, ETH ETFs ended 7 consecutive days of inflows, turning to a net outflow of $2.81 million on that day.
📌 The signal is very clear: institutional funds are showing phased divergence, BTC still receives capital support, but the momentum for chasing highs is weakening; ETH needs to be cautious about the pressure of continuous capital outflows.
In the short term, don’t just look at candlesticks; ETF fund flows might be more worth watching.
#BTC #ETH #ZECEthereum rose 70.9% in Q3, and this time it finally didn't just follow Bitcoin.
From about $1570 at the beginning of July to about $2680 at the end of the quarter, ETH delivered its strongest quarterly performance since Q1 2021.
During the same period, Bitcoin rose about 42.6%, with ETH clearly outperforming.
Money is indeed flowing in.
In Q3, the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of about $3.04 billion. In late September, there were consecutive single-day inflows exceeding $100 million, but the last two trading days turned into net outflows, indicating that while funds are optimistic, they are not blindly buying all the way.
Citibank also raised ETH's 12-month target price this week from $2240 to $3028, mainly due to ETF fund inflows and increased activity in the crypto market.
The use of stablecoins, DeFi, and on-chain finance has provided some fundamental support for this rally.
However, the difficulty is also increasing in Q4.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to about 5.3%, making capital costs more expensive; ETH has already risen 70% in three months, so for it to continue strengthening, it will depend on whether ETFs can keep up the momentum and if there is new buying above $2700.
ETH definitely won in Q3.
Whether it can keep winning in Q4 cannot be judged by gains alone. $BTC has a bunch of negative news, so why hasn't the big coin crashed yet? 😂
4500 BTC that had been dormant for over four years suddenly moved,
Bitget was hacked again for $380 million,
C.Z posted an abstract green photo the day before yesterday.
Plus, everyone's been watching closely recently—
the four-year cycle, bottoming out in mid-October.
The most interesting thing now is:
everyone is waiting for a big bearish candle.
I don't rule out a drop during the National Day holiday,
so I won't use all my ammo.
But direction-wise, I'm still bullish.
Starting with a small position now.
If it really crashes, I still have ammo.
If it really rallies, I won't miss out either 😂
$BTC
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key point. Under macro sentiment pressure, SLX is under short-term pressure, but I judge this more as a shakeout near the lower range rather than a trend reversal. The four-hour level is still in an upward structure, and the pullback is exactly the window to observe the strength of the bulls.
Current price 0.06334, down 1.6% in 24h, lowest dipped to 0.0596 then recovered above 0.063, with a turnover of 4.73 million showing selling pressure is not extreme. Although the one-hour is weak, the four-hour still has 9.19% room from the low, the top ten order book buy-sell ratio is 1.18, buyers slightly dominant; funding rate 0.0081% is relatively neutral, with 29.056 million coins held and no panic exit observed. Resistance above is at 0.06451, only a stable break can hope for a breakthrough; support below at 0.06185 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears.
Strategy: place long orders on pullback to 0.06215, stop loss at 0.05935, target 0.06645, risk-reward ratio is appropriate; if volume breaks support downward, then reverse to wait and see. Position control within 20%, single trade risk no more than 1.5% of total funds, avoid heavy overnight positions before non-farm payrolls.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$SLX#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $SLX #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键，风险资产估值再度承压，ETH短期难脱离震荡。我的判断：非农前以区间对待，突破需量能确认。
24-hour price almost flat, highest 2720.99, lowest 2666.03, 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages still upward, but 3.31% below the 4-hour high, indicating strong consolidation. Trading volume 22.212 million is moderate, funding rate 0.0039% shows bulls slightly dominant but not overheated, open interest 575,000 indicates unresolved divergence. Top 10 buy orders 4435 vs sell orders 101, buy-sell ratio 43.93, short-term buying clearly supports the bottom, 2686 area is the current bull-bear dividing line.
Strategy: lightly buy on pullback near 2673, stop loss 2652, target 2717; if volume breaks through 2721, add position, target 2758. Position control within 20%, no adding before non-farm payroll release.
— Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$ETH#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $ETH The National Day holiday has arrived, wishing everyone account inflows and a peaceful sleep at night.
$SOON Don't rush to short in the short term; the momentum hasn't fully released yet, and there's a high probability of one more surge. I placed a long order before bed last night, and when I woke up, I found the trailing take profit had already triggered. I didn't check which level was executed, but at least I didn't stay up late. The 24-hour volume exceeded 100 million, and with $BTC leading upwards, the market naturally follows.
$CAP It's also not suitable for shorting. This kind of slow, steady rise with small steps is the most frustrating; a sharp drop may not come, but a short squeeze could suddenly appear. Either wait for a pullback to go long or stay out and watch; don't use short positions to prove yourself unless your position size and margin are sufficiently large.
For any coin, first watch the big picture. Since August, $BTC's overall position has shifted upward, with shallow pullbacks and quick recoveries, making counter-trend shorts very risky. The market is thin during the holiday, so there may be more spikes; light positions and setting take profit and stop loss orders in advance are more important than constantly watching the market.
Wishing everyone profits and good sleep. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Family, is this take-profit and stop-loss plan okay? I'm really conflicted, always afraid a single spike will blow me out.
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Brothers, I just opened a long position on ETH, but watching this market, I feel more and more uncertain.
ETH is oscillating between 2626 and 2787. The direction is extremely unclear.
The area from 2720 to 2750 above is a short-term strong resistance zone, and 2626 below is previous low support. It's a typical night before a big move, with bulls and bears both waiting for the nonfarm payroll data.
I currently set my take-profit at 2750 and stop-loss at 2620, which seems reasonable. But what I fear most is a manipulative spike from the market makers!
The stop-loss at 2620 is only 63 points away from the current price. With 20x leverage, the margin is too tight. A single spike from the market makers can precisely trigger my stop-loss and then pull back. I've been hit by this kind of "targeted explosion" too many times.
My personal view is bullish, no doubt, but protecting against spikes is more important than just being right on direction. For this trade, either reduce leverage or widen the stop-loss, don't let a single spike puncture my confidence too. Brothers, give me some advice, how should I handle this trade?
$ETH
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 An average American worker has to work a full year
to earn one BTC.
And this is already an underestimate.
Before taxes.
No rent deducted, no food expenses deducted, no bills deducted.
It assumes you spend every penny of your salary buying BTC.
No one lives like this.
The real number is much higher than a year.
Everyone thinks BTC is too expensive.
Let's change the question:
How many years does an employee have to work
to afford the company they work for?
The answer is also getting longer.
It's not that the company is getting more expensive, but that their position hasn't changed.
Some workers eventually become bosses, but few.
Asset prices are not determined by wages; they are determined by those who have money in hand.
And that money is not wages.
I spent half an hour thinking about how to express this, haha.
So this curve is not about BTC.
It's about the position of labor.
People who rely solely on wages are getting further away from assets.
This has been true even before BTC appeared.
So the real conflict
is not workers vs. Bitcoin.
It's asset holders vs. those who only have wages.
And Bitcoin is just the latest mirror.
This BTC mirror doesn't make people grow old; it just lets you see clearly.
So it's best not to ask if it's still in time now.
We should ask ourselves a harsher question:
How many things do you have that are making money for you?
Assets are not priced by wages, so they get more expensive the more you calculate.
The mirror doesn't reflect BTC; it reflects your position.$CAP looks short-biased here, but keep risk controlled—don’t go all in. A short stop-loss can sit around 0.0073.
Repeated long upper wicks on the 15m chart show failed breakouts, making a reclaim of 0.07212 less convincing.
$BTC remains bullish in the 83K–85K range; short invalidation around 82.5K.
$ETH is tracking BTC closely—no need to overcomplicate it.
#BTCInflowETHOutflow Don't rush to FOMO: CORE at $0.02 aims for 100x growth, but first pass these three checkpoints
⚠️ For research sharing only, not investment advice; 100x gains are extremely low probability events.
Recently, CORE performed a hard fork destroying 150 million excess tokens, BTCFi's popularity is rising, and many are starting to FOMO, hoping $0.02 CORE will achieve 100x gains. But 100x is not guaranteed by a single hard fork; it requires passing three core checkpoints.
The first checkpoint is governance. Token burning only addresses surface supply issues; the structural contradiction of 21-node centralization still exists. Only by optimizing governance mechanisms and reducing node monopolies can the market's biggest trust risk be eliminated.
The second checkpoint is ecosystem. BTC staking TVL must explode, on-chain real assets must continuously grow, protocols must generate stable cash flow to enable buyback and burn. SatPay and various DApps must truly be implemented, not just remain conceptual narratives.
The third checkpoint is market. A super bull market is needed, with BTCFi as the main bull market theme, while breaking through fierce competition in the BTCFi track to attract institutional and overseas retail incremental capital.
The I Ching says the way of heaven dislikes fullness; perfection is hard to achieve in all things. 100x gains require multiple conditions resonating together. Before all three checkpoints are realized, do not blindly chase the price.Although the probability of a rate hike in October has been weakened to 31.6%, the risk has not been eliminated. Tonight's September ISM Manufacturing PMI serves as a warning.
Although the data is nominally weaker than the previous value and expectations, the detailed sub-items show:
Manufacturing growth has not significantly cooled, indicating the economy maintains resilient growth,
New orders have accelerated again, indicating future growth will continue to accelerate,
Employment has improved, with no obvious signs of cooling or recession in employment,
Input prices have suddenly surged sharply, with cost inflation reemerging.
Combining these sub-items leads to one conclusion — the Fed has room and reason to raise rates.
Of course, this data has not yet affected the probability of a rate hike in October, but it will become a potential data risk. If tomorrow's large nonfarm payrolls data shows employment growth continues, and next week's September CPI shows accelerating inflation, the probability of a rate hike in October will still be raised. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Macroeconomic pressure remains, but Bitcoin has not experienced a cliff-like drop; the reason lies not in sentiment but in holdings. With U.S. Treasury yields high, funds prefer to stay in banks and government bonds; however, ETFs and listed companies continue accumulating, and sell orders are being continuously hedged. The 84,000–86,000 BTC range above is a dense lock-in zone, where rebounds are often pushed back, yet there are buyers below.
Non-farm payrolls are the next big risk. If employment exceeds expectations, rate hike trades will reverse, and risk assets will face pressure first; if data weakens, BTC may leverage ETF funds to push through resistance again. In the short term, watch the data; in the medium term, watch whether institutions can continue to support valuations under high interest rates with real money.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC indicates that on-chain credit expansion is still accelerating, which is a moderately bullish signal for BTC in the mid-term, but I won't chase the price in the short term and will first watch risk control.
The 24h price is almost flat at 84121, with a volatility range of only 13121 points (high 84444 / low 83123), trading volume is 7.25 million, relatively light, and the funding rate of 0.0062% shows mild bullish sentiment. Open interest is 29,000 coin-margined contracts, not crowded. The 1-hour decline is -1.33% from the high, the 4-hour is still up 11.25% from the low, short-term pullback has not broken the position; the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.40, buyers dominate the order book, 83180 area is short-term support, 84470 is near-term resistance.
Strategy-wise, if it pulls back to 83210, lightly test long positions with stop loss at 82560 and target at 84420, the risk-reward ratio is reasonable; if it directly breaks 84470 without volume, wait for a pullback to enter. Position size should be controlled within 5% of total capital, single loss no more than 1.5%, exit immediately if stop loss triggers, no holding losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BTC#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $BTC If US stocks go on-chain, will stablecoins become the new dollar accounts?
Today, when buying tokenized stocks, recharging, pricing, and dividends can all be done entirely with USDT, without touching bank accounts.
Institutions want more: embedding stablecoins into the cash leg of securities clearing, with assets and cash settled in the same transaction.
But ordinary stablecoins still don't generate interest. What truly approaches the next-generation account might not be USDT itself, but "USDT + interest-bearing RWA wallet." #KellyFourCoinRadar #RWA $HYPE $LINK
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key #US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved #Iran receives US counterproposal, US-Iran differences persist
That needle in the early morning was deep and sudden.
SOL first surged sharply, seemingly about to break through, but then softened and fell back, with the price barely moving while leverage positions collapsed. In 19 hours, the entire network liquidated $98.63 million, with long positions at $42.17 million, short positions at $56.46 million, the largest single liquidation at $6.17 million, 5,834 people forced out, and a volatility of 4.12%.
BNB was no exception, jumping up and down, liquidating $52.18 million, with long positions at $31.45 million, short positions at $20.73 million, the largest single liquidation at $4.38 million, 3,927 people exited, and volatility at 3.76%.
This is called two-way harvesting. When it looks like a waterfall drop, you short and enter, only to be pulled back by a lower wick; when it looks like a peak, you go long and enter, only to be hammered down by an upper wick. The price stays in place, but accounts have already been wiped out.
$BTC $ETH $SOL The current cash flow perspective shows the market is shifting from pure speculation to utility demand. $BTC continues to attract the majority of capital, while $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP all recorded positive cash flow in the most recent week. This forms the basis to monitor a new capital rotation cycle, but it is not yet a confirmed altseason signal. $ETH needs to demonstrate ecosystem activity, $SOL needs to maintain on-chain growth, and $XRP needs to expand payments and liquidity. Traders should prioritize data $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP represent four different cash flow categories. $BTC is the market confidence gauge; $ETH reflects ecosystem participation; $SOL is often sensitive to risk appetite; $XRP is strongly influenced by cash flow and its own narrative. When $BTC moves sideways, altcoins don't necessarily rise. Look for coins with improving volume, strong support, and clear breakouts. Buy orders should have predefined stop-loss points. Price increases without volume: prioritize partial profit-taking. Manage capital, wait for confirmation, and avoid FOMO when momentum is weak.This is so bizarre! It's the 13th day of shorting, and instead of a crash, this market is slowly grinding away half my life.
It's late at night, looking at these three grid orders, I sighed.
The original plan was to hold for half a month to a month, and now it's day 13. BTC is still hovering around 84000, ETH at 2680, and my short positions are stuck in this limbo.
It's really tough. Every day I watch the grid bot diligently arbitraging with red profits, but when I check the total returns: BTC is still down 5.49%, and ETH has just barely broken even with a 1% gain.
This market has been so strange lately. Despite the high US Treasury yields and so many bearish factors, once the PCE data came out, it pulled the market up. BTC and ETH have failed several times to break resistance levels, but they just won't crash as expected. It feels like all the bearish news was priced in early, even turning into bullish factors.
Tomorrow is the non-farm payrolls. Honestly, I feel very uncertain. I'm afraid the data will be a cold surprise and wipe me out, but also afraid of another short squeeze if "all bad news is good news" happens again.
No more adding to positions, no stop loss. Just holding on hard, waiting to get through tomorrow. Anyone else holding short positions and enduring this? Tonight is destined to be a sleepless night.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CT has only been listed for one day, and the market has already started a "roller coaster".
Yesterday, just entering the trading market, the price once surged above $0.48, then quickly fell back. Now CT is around $0.44, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $300 million.
What's more interesting is that CT is not lacking in trading.
On the contrary, trading is very active.
But the price falling from the high point indicates that early funds are undergoing intense turnover.
At this time, when looking at CT, you can't just focus on the price increase.
First, see if volume can pick up again near $0.48.
This is the previous high and currently the most direct price resistance.
Second, watch the support around $0.40.
If the volume significantly increases when pulling back here, it means the battle between bulls and bears is still ongoing.
Third, look at the contract funds.
Currently, CT perpetual contracts have an open interest of about $3.6 million, with an average funding rate negative, indicating that short-term short positions have a notable presence.
So the truly interesting part about CT now is:
The price has already experienced a round of intense volatility, but the market's price discovery is just beginning.
Look up to $0.48, down to $0.40.
The most exciting thing about new coins is often not the first big green candle.
But where the market ultimately leaves the price after the first wave of heat fades.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $CT $ETH is not suitable for playing big Bitcoin or Ethereum this week, especially if you want to catch a breakout early, wake up soon.
Don't wear down your principal by going up and down within this 3% fluctuation all week.
58000-78000-87000, the market has gone through two upward phases, and altcoins have been speculated from MEME to various DAT treasury-bought altcoins. The next phase doesn't show any new stories yet, so you can start to take a laid-back approach to the crypto market again. Volatility will gradually decrease, and altcoins won't be very smooth either.
If you're not an all-rounder in the whole market and can't trade US stocks, gold, or crude oil, then you should reduce leverage and withdraw some margin for defense.
In a bull market, cashing out more is better; don't complain about small profits, what you hold in hand is real.$ETH Stop pretending, Ethereum, is it fun to keep baiting longs?
Hurry up and crash, it's been oscillating all along, it can't even break 2730 this time, the highs keep going down.
The strange thing is the lows are also rising, staying around 2680, now it's compressing the oscillation range, at this time a big move is very likely.
If at this time it breaks below 2650, then the real show begins, most likely directly back to 2500, delicious.
$ZEC The once hot coin is no longer performing, known as the little Ethereum of the three coins, a star mining project, now also shaky.
In the past two days, the highest rebound was near 1490, it can't even reach 1500, very likely the small bull run is over.
Currently, short-term support is at 1350, this level is still consolidating, probably to unload without letting the price drop sharply.
This kind of miner coin won't drop all at once, be cautious, take profits and run, miners want to sell, mining machines need to be sold, this kind of continuous income.
Before the bull-bear reversal, the trend won't change. I believe this bull-bear reversal will happen when Ethereum breaks below the key 2100 level, breaking this support will shake bulls' confidence and continue the bear trend Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, I'm still bearish here. From the small nonfarm payrolls, PCE earlier this week to today's ISM and S&P data, there's no need to elaborate much; let's look at it from another angle. On the spending and output side, it's clearly supply not meeting demand. With the same demand, input costs are real, but output hasn't kept up, so prices are naturally pushed a bit higher, which is another side of inflation.
Regarding the unemployment rate, the US economy is still expanding while the global economy is slowing down. US manufacturing is recovering, employment numbers won't be low, and imported employment is also increasing, so the unemployment rate won't deviate much; nonfarm payrolls will most likely increase. Trump is now unreliably shouting about expanding economic employment and super intelligence; as long as manufacturing recovers, supply-demand imbalance will ease slightly, inflation might drop a bit, but short-term pain remains and prices are still high. So I still see a 70% probability of a rate hike in October. If there's no rate hike, inflation will be like a short position check hanging over Powell's head, with no value realized. $BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 溜达鹅今天看到两条完全相反的消息。 第一条：花旗集团把BTC 12个月目标价从$82,000大幅上调到$113,000。ETH目标价从$2,240上调到$3,028。理由是链上活跃度增强、宏观环境改善、ETF资金回流。 第二条：今天下午油价突然直线拉升，布油重回$100美元，美油布油双双涨超2%。黄金白银跳水，BTC涨幅收窄到$83,300。过去24小时，全市场超8万人爆仓。 一个喊涨到$11.3万，一个说通胀要回来了。该信谁？ 先看花旗的逻辑。花旗分析师说，综合三个维度：链上活跃度、宏观环境、ETF资金流向。Q3 BTC涨了43%，超越纳指和标普500，大幅领先黄金。ETF资金在回流，顾问和经纪商在增加BTC配置。 这些都是事实。但花旗的目标价是12个月的，不是明天的。 再看油价。布油$100意味着什么？意味着输入型通胀压力回来了。美联储9月刚加了25个基点，点阵图说年底还有一次。如果油价继续涨，通胀降不下来，10月或12月再加一次的概率就会上升。 交易心理学里有个概念叫"预期差"。 机构的目标价是基于当前信息的推演，但市场价格是由当下的情绪和资金决定的。花旗说$113,000，不代Pause in rate hikes ≠ liquidity easing
As long as US Treasury yields remain high
Money is still expensive, and risk assets are under pressure
What really matters for BTC is not what the Fed says
But when US Treasury yields truly start to decline$CAP I basically sold this coin too early 😭
The price just surged to around 0.084, having climbed steadily from about 0.064 earlier today, with a significant increase. Chasing it now is most likely to result in the right direction but getting stopped out by a pullback first.
① Why I think CAP still has potential
It’s not just a Meme driven purely by sentiment.
CAP focuses on on-chain credit, stablecoins, and yield. The protocol itself has real TVL and active funds running through it. This sector also taps into narratives like stablecoins, RWA, and on-chain lending.
So as long as the protocol’s funds keep growing, CAP at least has fundamental support; it’s not just a pump-and-dump.
② The current price structure isn’t bad either
There was resistance around 0.078 before, which has now been broken.
After such a breakout, what I want to see most is whether 0.078–0.08 can flip from resistance to support.
If the price pulls back to this range and buyers step in quickly to hold it, that means the breakout is valid, and I’ll remain bullish.
③ Why I’m not buying directly right now
Because it’s already risen about 30% today.
Chasing at this level means heavy short-term profit-taking pressure. Even if CAP can still rise later, it’s very likely to first drop to shake out those chasing the highs.
Also, this rally is more about capital rotation; there’s no particularly strong new positive news, and the price has run ahead of the protocol’s data in the short term.
④ If I were to open a position now, I’d wait for two scenarios
If the pullback to 0.078–0.08 holds steady, I’d consider being bullish.
Or if it breaks and holds above 0.085 with volume, then I’d follow the breakout.
If it falls back below 0.075 and can’t recover, I’d avoid buying for now, as that would be a false breakout.
So I’m not ignoring CAP.
This coin has fundamentals, a narrative, and a small market cap, so it’s very responsive when funds flow in.
But the most important thing now isn’t "whether to buy," but to avoid buying right after a 30% intraday surge where you’re most likely to get shaken out.$ZEC
Lately, looking at ZEC again, it really feels like its character has changed.
Before, this guy often didn’t follow the overall market pattern; $BTC and $ETH’s ups and downs didn’t affect it much, it ran its own course. But recently, it’s clearly started to sync with the market trend. Wherever the market moves, $ZEC follows, its independence is weakening.
This change is worth being cautious about. If you continue trading $ZEC, you can’t just watch its own trend; you also have to keep an eye on the rhythm of $BTC and $ETH.
Actually, there’s another interesting phenomenon recently. I wonder if anyone else has noticed that some Hong Kong celebrities have suddenly started hustling for money more frequently? Names like Joey Wong, Daniel Wu, and Edison Chen—don’t they seem to be appearing more and more often lately?
A while ago, I found it strange that even in my small hometown county, you could see Hong Kong stars promoting things. Looking back now, it doesn’t seem so hard to understand.
The market always has its own cycles. For ordinary people, the most important thing isn’t to chase opportunities everywhere but to first protect their own wallets.
Whether $ZEC will regain an independent trend now still needs further observation. Don’t rush to guess; first see if its correlation with the overall market can continue.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Xiaoming is none other than the devil living in my mind, representing human weaknesses. Greed and laziness!
The worst part is, Xiaoming can never tolerate having an empty position. As long as I have some USDT in hand, Xiaoming feels uneasy and insists that I buy it all, glorifying it by saying: "Idle funds are just idle, better to buy some Bitcoin and enjoy the gains; having more skills never hurts!" Xiaoming's life motto is: "We cultivators always stay fully invested, always with tears of passion in our eyes."