Orbit Post Sitemap
What? Scared again, can't control your hands, and want to run halfway, right? You want to run at the slightest pullback, what big things can you achieve?
Did you see the non-farm data? September added only 29,000 jobs, the expectation was 90,000, and the previous value was revised down by 60,000. The unemployment rate directly rose to 4.2%. As soon as the data came out, traders immediately cut their bets on a Fed rate hike in October from a high level to less than 30%.
This macro thunder is really breaking things apart this time.
$ETH price rose from around 2705 before the non-farm announcement to above 2747, with a 24-hour increase close to 2.3%. On the 1-hour level, the price has stood back above all short-term moving averages, with a bullish alignment intact. The first line of defense below is 2670, and 2630-2640 is a thicker support zone.
On the order book, there is indeed a sell wall around 2710, with the order volume accounting for 44% of the total volume of the top five sell orders, so a bit of short-term grinding is normal. But what kind of pullback is this? This isn't even a shakeout, at most it's just a breather at a high level. ETH has already risen 57% in Q3, digesting some profit-taking at this position is very healthy.
You are rock solid when losing a few hundred dollars, but panic and can't sleep when floating profit is just a few dozen dollars. The core problem is one: you have no plan and trade purely on emotion.
The structure is intact, the trend is unbroken, the non-farm data brought macro benefits, and you want to run? Hold your positions, set your stop loss properly, and leave the rest to the trend. The path to 4000 won't change direction because of today's few dozen points of fluctuation.Just checked my wallet,
and actually found a wallet with Blast @blast tokens $YOLO,
I have no idea how I got them.
Checked the price, worth $5,500 at TGE, now $25 ……
Thanks, I can get some KFC tomorrow.🤣Brothers, as soon as the nonfarm payroll data came out tonight, I was completely stunned.
US September nonfarm employment only increased by 29,000, while the expectation was 90,000, and the previous value was 162,000. This data is basically a cliff-like collapse. Once the data was released, BTC immediately surged like it took a stimulant, shooting up from around 83,000 to as high as 87,000 USD, rising over 3% intraday.
But me? I was holding a short position on BTC at 82,707, watching it rush to 85,456, with an unrealized loss of -84 USD, I was totally shocked. And that’s not even the most frustrating part, the most frustrating is DOGE.
My DOGE short was opened at 0.0922, but this damn DOGE went crazy along with BTC, directly soaring to 0.0947, with an unrealized loss of -47 USD. Usually it plays dead on the ground, but at the slightest movement it runs faster than anyone else. When going long it doesn’t rise, but when shorting it gets more aggressive than anyone.
Look at the liquidation data, it’s even more heartbreaking: in the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated 357 million USD, shorts accounted for 272 million, and BTC short liquidations were 145 million. In just ten minutes, 110 million USD of shorts were liquidated. This is not a market, this is a public execution of the bears.
What’s the most disgusting? The data is so bad, logically the economy is weak, risk assets should fall. But the market logic is completely reversed—poor employment means lower rate hike expectations, the Fed has to ease, so all the funds rush into crypto.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
$ETH
$BTC $DOGE $XAU Gold has been weak recently, with lower lows. You can gradually buy in at 4140-4115. I've realized that with gold, you really can't hold a position too long; if you hold on after gaining forty or fifty points, the profit quickly disappears. Of course, the long-term outlook is still bullish on gold, but when trading contracts, it's best to take profits quickly and run. Securing profits and maintaining steady gains is the key!$ARB has retraced 91% from the 2.39 high. It fell back from a +46% weekly gain to 0.20, and even more painfully, third-party safety and compliance ratings gave it a zero — cheap for a reason.
Rating agencies gave ARB a zero score on safety and compliance; the SEC's stance and regulatory risks are all red flags; the L2 TVL inflow story can't stop token inflation emissions.
Transaction fees go to the sequencer and DAO treasury, holders only profit from price differences, with continuous annual unlock and sell pressure; the so-called value capture is still just an empty promise.
Safety red flags plus ongoing inflation, position capped at 30%. Hold at 0.185, reduce at break below 0.17. ARB isn't cheap, it's cheap to the point of being untrustworthy.Bitcoin Market Structure: Breakouts vs. Noise
A useful chart discussion asks three questions: Where did price move relative to its recent range? Did trading activity change? Did the move persist, or reverse?
These observations describe market behavior; they do not establish a guaranteed outcome. Context matters more than a single candle.
Educational content only. No price forecast or trade signal.美伊又干起来了，布油重回100美元，大饼今天最高居然干到87350，这剧本是不是拿反了？ 法老直接说，按老黄历，油一涨、美债收益率一飙，风险资产得先跪为敬。但今天大饼硬气得很，因为资金开始把它当“地缘对冲+抗通胀”的备胎了。 先看中东这摊子事。 布伦特原油单日暴涨4.37%，收在102.31美元，WTI也涨了2.71%到92.87美元。导火索是霍尔木兹海峡又出事了，至少三艘油轮遭不明飞行物袭击，美军还往中东增派了第三艘航母和近万名兵力。特朗普更是放话，中期选举后“有可能”加大对伊朗的打击力度，伊朗提议重开海峡他直接回了一句“还不够好”。 按常理，这剧本对大饼是利空。 油价越高，通胀预期越硬，美联储就越不敢松口。但今天大饼从85000附近一路干到87350，日内涨超3%！ 为啥不跌反涨？因为市场开始把大饼当“逃生资产”了。 中东越乱，法币信用越晃，大饼这种抗审查、总量恒定的东西，反而有人偷偷往兜里塞。Binance Research的数据也显示，美伊局势升级期间，BTC和ETH跑赢了黄金、白银和主要股指。 但法老得敲黑板，别在86900上头当接盘侠。 日线和4小时RSIUS September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
This nonfarm payrolls report was a major surprise, with new jobs added at only 29,000, far below market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the employment data for the previous two months were simultaneously revised downward, signaling a cooling in the US labor market all at once. Wage growth also weakened, easing the pressure of wages pushing inflation higher. The market immediately lowered the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates in October, causing the US dollar and long-term US Treasury yields to fall rapidly, giving risk assets a short-term boost. However, it is important to distinguish that weakening employment does not mean the inflation problem is solved. The Federal Reserve is currently observing two fronts: weaker employment will limit further rate hike space, but as long as core inflation does not show a clear decline, policy is unlikely to quickly shift to easing. This data mainly delays the timing of rate hikes rather than directly opening the door to rate cuts. On the market front, macro-sensitive assets like gold and BTC saw a short-term rally driven by this data, but it is a data-driven pulse rebound. The market’s attention will immediately shift to the PCE inflation indicator next; if inflation remains stubborn, the sustainability of this asset rebound will be greatly diminished. Macro trading has entered a phase of alternating data battles; do not overly bet on a trend reversal based on a single weak nonfarm payroll report. Focus on subsequent inflation readings and statements from Federal Reserve officials.Nonfarm payrolls fell far short of expectations, recording only 29,000. Bitcoin surged then retreated, directly dropping below 87000, with bulls and bears sweeping back and forth. How should one respond to this kind of volatile market?
The US added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, significantly below the market expectation of 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data was released, trading funds quickly reduced bets on further Fed rate hikes. But what’s special is that Bitcoin had already broken above 87000 before the nonfarm data was released, reaching a high of 87036, with a 24-hour gain once hitting 3.73%.
The logic behind this is not hard to understand. Previously, spot ETFs continuously saw capital inflows, and institutional funds have been accumulating in batches below 85000, inherently having upward momentum. This nonfarm data just accelerated the pace of the breakout. However, on-chain data shows that there are many profit-taking positions accumulated around 87000, so once it surges, it is prone to concentrated cash-outs. Blindly chasing highs in the short term requires extra caution. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ETH Finally waited for you, luckily I didn't give up — A confession from a 100x leverage short seller
Looking at these two bright green marks on the screen, I shed tears of relief like an old father. Finally waited for you, luckily I didn't give up!
Recalling the painful day today, Ethereum soared like a skyrocket, and my two 100x leverage short positions were like the Damocles sword hanging over my head. Waking up three times every midnight, the first thing I do is check the liquidation price on my phone, my hair is all worn out. Others trade crypto with skills, I trade purely by gambling.
Today, heaven has eyes! The market finally plunged but now I have confidence! What take profit or stop loss? Doesn't exist, my current tactic is to "play dead." As long as I don't close the position, this floating profit is enough for me to screenshot and post three moments.
Salute to all the short brothers who hold on late at night, our persistence is worth it! Tonight, add a chicken leg, and please don't rebound in my dreams! $BTC A while ago, I couldn't sleep in the middle of the night
I was scrolling on my phone and saw someone talking about $BTC
They said just hold and don't move, and you can turn things around
I got impulsive and downloaded an app
Spent a long time verifying
After buying, my palms were sweaty
When it went up a bit, I wanted to sell
When it dropped a bit, I wanted to buy more
Went back and forth for a week
Lost quite a bit on fees
Later, a colleague talked about $ETH
Said holding long-term is stable
I followed the trend and bought some
But it stayed flat for half a month
Every day it looked the same when I opened the app
I really couldn't take it
Sold it off
A few days after selling, it started moving
I stared at the screen and kept hitting my leg
Then I randomly looked into $SOL
Bought it and got stuck
Been stuck for almost two months
My account was so red it made me anxious
The day I broke even, I immediately sold
After selling, it jumped up again
I laughed and closed the app
Now I don't mess around anymore
Only play with spare money
No contracts
No borrowing
No following tips
If I make money, I treat myself well
If I lose, I consider it tuition
I check at most twice a day
Sleeping well at night is better than anything
This isn't a path for ordinary people to get rich quick
Just treat it as a high-risk hobby
Don't put your life on the line#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $CT successfully topped out!
Opening price at 0.61
Basically, it can be said that it opened at the highest point
This move is legendary
I originally thought I had to hold the position
Could it be that I overestimated it?
Next, focus on whether it will break the previous high of 0.62
If it suddenly rebounds and breaks the previous high, be ready to add more short positions
I think it should be about right at this position
-----------------
$SOON was not so lucky
Added positions five times consecutively before finally profiting
First entry at 0.3
Last add at 0.5
Average cost around 0.43
Now profit is over 330%
I took profit directly
Most likely there will be a rebound next
Instead of waiting for profits to retract
Better to short again after the rebound
Now it depends on whether the dog whale gives a chance to re-enter
This is just a personal trading record post; shorting altcoins carries great risk, do not operate with heavy positions.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 🚨 The trigger has been pulled, and the triangle has finally broken upwards!
The US added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, while the market expected 90,000. This is not just a surprise, but more like the job market suddenly "freezing."
The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%. After the data release, the market's expectation for an October rate hike dropped directly from 29% to 17%, and the US 2-year Treasury yield briefly fell by 10 basis points.
What have I been saying these past two days?
Employment is weakening, the short positions on US Treasuries are already overcrowded, PCE is clearly cooling down, and nonfarm data will continue to weaken.
Tonight, all these expectations were confirmed by the market.
The market's movement is more honest than anyone.
Bitcoin surged from $84K to $87,239, after the $85.2K resistance level that suppressed BTC for three consecutive days overnight turned into support.
Ethereum reached $2,749, and SOL rose nearly 5%.
The upward breakout after three days of consolidation is indeed strong—this is exactly the trend I mentioned the day before yesterday; the logic hasn't changed.
⚠️ But don't get excited just yet.
Some economists believe that the 29,000 figure may be affected by seasonal adjustment distortions and does not necessarily represent such a severe collapse in the job market.
This point needs to be remembered.
If next month's data is significantly revised, those who chased longs tonight may again face a rapid pullback.$BTC volume is gone, whales have fled, bulls are still dreaming
Let's look at the data first. BTC hit 86912 last night then quickly fell back to 85944, stuck below the 87509 resistance. The MACD histogram is close to the zero line, RSI is at 67.6—just a bit higher will trigger overbought profit-taking. The trading volume is only 1.77 billion, this volume simply can't support a real breakout.
Glassnode directly characterizes this rebound as "premature and speculative," the core issue being the lack of real trading volume support. Binance spot order book shows strong sell walls between 85,000 and 85,500, with 77,200 as the key defense line. ETF funds had a net outflow of 148.7 million on September 30, ending a continuous 9-day net inflow of about 3 billion. On-chain data shows whales reduced about 30,000 BTC from September 27 to October 1, worth approximately 2.52 billion USD.
What alarms me most is the derivatives market. Funding rates soared from 3% to 10%, and long crowding surged sharply. The price rose, but open interest first dropped then rose, which previously looked more like short covering rather than new longs entering. The buy pressure indicator rose to 4.9, the highest since August—this kind of frenzy often appears near short-term tops.
The price is approaching the strong $87K resistance zone, volume can't keep up, institutional funds are withdrawing, whales are reducing. Under this structure, I'd rather miss a rebound than buy at resistance.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate surged to 10%, while open interest contracts simultaneously warmed up, showing a clear rebound in the derivatives market.
Since September 30, the Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate has risen from about 3% to 10%; open interest increased by approximately 27,000 BTC, bringing the current total to 653,000 BTC, corresponding to a notional value of about 56.2 billion USD. During this period, the coin price also rose from around 83,500 USD to 86,500 USD.
Several market signals are worth noting.
• The rising funding rate indicates increased long position costs, reflecting a clear warming of bullish sentiment in the market
• The continuous rise in open interest shows that new leveraged funds are entering the market
• Leverage risk is accumulating simultaneously; if the market quickly reverses, the high funding rate will accelerate concentrated long position liquidations, amplifying the correction
• This round is a low-level recovery market. On September 30, open interest was only 625,000 BTC, a relatively low level in the past year. This increase is just a recovery from a low base and has not yet reached an extremely crowded state
Price increase, rising positions, and funding rate growth together indicate that this rebound has attracted leveraged funds back.
Going forward, the key focus is whether Bitcoin can continue to maintain the upward trend and keep the funding rate within a relatively healthy range. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC indeed dropped! It's definitely a sell-the-news market. Actually, at 10 o'clock, before the sell-off started, I already had this feeling.
But since it has dropped, there's no changing the fact now. We can only watch the key levels to see if it breaks down.
Strong support below is at 85500, then 84800, and further down at 82800.
As long as it doesn't break below 82800, it is considered a normal oscillating correction.
But if it breaks below 82800, then we will analyze whether the structure is broken.
At present, it is still oscillating within a bullish structure. The trend is somewhat like the day before yesterday; although the oscillation is intense, the overall recovery won't take too long.
Also, pay attention to the flow of funds.
On-chain observation shows that several spot transactions were just transferred from cold wallets to exchanges. The exact purpose is yet to be confirmed!
Hopefully, it's not for dumping.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!"#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
$BTC and $ETH spot ETFs have both shifted from net inflows to net outflows, which is a warning signal.
The bullish trend that saw continuous inflows for 9 days, totaling $3.1 billion, has now reached a temporary pause. After September 30, funds fled for two consecutive days, with a total outflow of $173 million. ETH followed suit with withdrawals, indicating this is no longer a single-coin portfolio adjustment but a collective cash-out by institutional capital in major crypto assets.
Institutional capital always acts first, choosing to take profits and exit at market highs, indicating that at current price levels, large funds are unwilling to continue absorbing upward pressure.
Many interpret this as a short-term consolidation, but be aware: if short-term capital continues to flow out, market buying power will quickly dry up. The incremental funds that previously pushed prices higher disappear, the market loses upward momentum, and after high-level oscillations, the probability of a downward correction will increase.
Currently, the market seems to still resist declines, but this is mainly supported by retail sentiment. With incremental funds exiting, only internal market battles remain, and selling pressure above will grow heavier.
Going forward, focus on ETF capital data; if net outflows persist, this rebound rally will most likely have peaked. Avoid blindly chasing highs; rebounds are windows for short-selling battles. Be sure to manage position risk carefully. XRP 1.53, but if you look at the on-chain data, you'll find a very fragmented situation
In the past 5 days, XRP whales holding over one million dollars have increased their holdings by more than 470 million tokens, which at the time was worth about 724 million dollars. Total holdings rose from 12.37 billion to 12.8 billion tokens. The XRP spot ETF has seen net inflows for 11 consecutive weeks, accumulating about 1.79 billion dollars
Money is flowing in. But the price has dropped from the September high of 1.65 to 1.53
This divergence is not the first time it has appeared. After whales increased holdings by about 460 million tokens in August, the coin price surged 40.7% within a week, reaching 1.70 dollars. The current scale and pace of accumulation are almost identical to that August wave
Looking at the regulatory side, two events just happened to coincide with this time point
On October 1, the SEC released a 760-page crypto custody proposal allowing more investment firms and state trust companies to hold digital assets on behalf of clients, acknowledging that "custody capabilities may lag asset listings by several months." The Federal Reserve simultaneously announced a stablecoin regulatory draft requiring payment stablecoins to be 100% backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries and other highly liquid assets
Legislation is stuck in the Senate, but regulators themselves are pushing forward. This clears practical operational obstacles for institutional funds entering the market, which is more tangible than the legislation itself
My judgment: 1.50 is a strong support for XRP. Whales are directly absorbing selling pressure in the 1.50-1.60 range, not waiting for lower prices. The ETF has been buying for 11 consecutive weeks, not betting on short-term moves
If 1.50 breaks, I admit I was wrong. If 1.50 holds, 1.65 is the first target Missed $CT yesterday, so today I decided to get on board with $XDP.
Since CT has surged so much, I missed the chance to get in. Both are new coins, so I hope XDP can give some momentum.
Today's market is pretty good; BTC has already broken through 86,000. Normally, altcoins should have a catch-up rally. XDP has been sideways for three days, plus there’s an event going on, so I think it will rise.
I'm just a retail investor, I know this is pure retail psychology. If I hadn’t missed selling the $CT I bought the day before yesterday, it would have doubled by now. I’m just really unwilling to miss out.
However, if XDP doesn’t rise, I’ll hold it for at most two days. If it drops more than 10%, I’ll sell it promptly and not hold for long.
My good brothers, can I get an extra meal tomorrow with this wave? The non-farm payroll data is out, is $BTC about to have a comfortable run?
September non-farm payrolls came in cold, below expectations. The US added 29,000 seasonally adjusted non-farm jobs in September, below the market median expectation of 90,000. The US unemployment rate in September slightly rose to 4.2%, market expectation was 4.1%, and average hourly earnings year-over-year were 3.0%, also below expectations.
Looking at these data together, the signal is clear: the US labor market is clearly cooling down.
For BTC and tech stocks, this is actually a short-term positive. Because the weaker the employment, the less pressure the Fed has to continue tightening, and the market's expectations for future easing may reheat.
If BTC can hold above 86,000 based on this data, I will continue holding my long positions and keep looking upward. $BTC $ETH $ZEC This rally,
makes me vaguely feel the momentum is weakening.
I'll prepare to watch the market closely early tomorrow morning,
to see if I can catch a suitable entry point for going long.
After taking profit on that long position this morning,
I held back all day,
not opening any new positions.
But the market just kept surging all day,
so it's not like I’m not conflicted.
However, compared to before,
this time my mindset has moved forward a bit
at least I didn’t impulsively switch to shorting out of frustration.
If I had done that,
the profits I made today wouldn’t just be lost,
I’d probably end up losing more.
Keep grinding.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 A while ago, I was scrolling through my phone late at night
and saw someone sharing that $BTC could bounce back.
I got impulsive and downloaded an app.
Spent a long time verifying my identity.
After buying, my palms were sweaty.
When it went up a bit, I wanted to sell.
When it dropped a bit, I wanted to buy more.
I went back and forth for a week,
losing quite a bit on fees.
Later, a colleague talked about $ETH,
saying it’s stable for the long term.
I followed the trend and bought some.
But it stayed flat for half a month.
Every day I opened the app, it was the same.
I just couldn’t hold on,
so I sold.
A few days after I sold, it started moving.
I stared at the screen and slapped my leg.
Then I randomly looked into $SOL.
Bought it and got stuck.
Been stuck for almost two months.
My account was so red it made me anxious.
The day I broke even, I immediately sold.
After I sold, it jumped up again.
I chuckled and closed the app.
Now I don’t mess around anymore.
I only play with spare money.
No contracts,
no borrowing money,
no following tips.
If I make money, I treat myself well.
If I lose, I consider it tuition.
I check at most twice a day.
Being able to sleep well at night is worth more than anything.
This isn’t a path for ordinary people to get rich quick.
Just treat it as a high-risk hobby.
Don’t put your life on the line. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Conclusion first: ZRO is not being squeezed by leverage today; it's driven by spot buying — the funding rate is only 0.0025%, almost zero.
Looking at the data: in 24 hours, it rose from 1.654 to 1.95, peaking at 1.9994, just one step away from $2. The 4H chart is clear: after a volume surge with a long bullish candle from 1.70 to 1.87 at dawn, it consolidated between 1.80-1.84 for four hours without any sell-off, and the funds gradually tried to push towards 2.
On the news side, CMC reports "institutional buying + technical momentum," but ainvest warns: there are token unlocks in October, so overhead supply really exists.
My market sense: flat funding rate + sideways consolidation without breaking + second volume surge — this combination usually means rotation, not distribution. $2 is a psychological level; if it breaks through, there's likely more room; if not, 1.80 is the support zone.
This is not investment advice. Do you think $ZRO can hold above $2 this time? As usual, a quick look before bed～
BTC peaked at 87238 today, currently priced at 85440. I'm watching that line on OKX; once again, someone is blowing hot air at the summit.
This morning, some were shouting "a crash is coming," but BTC reversed and surged, forcing some shorts out; however, as soon as it hit 87238, it couldn't hold and dropped back to 85440, meaning those who chased the high just got pinned down. I scanned the order book—there's support between 85000-85500, but buying pressure isn't strong. Sell orders pile up above 87000, and volume has shrunk compared to the surge, indicating this move looks more like a short squeeze followed by a retracement, not a trend reversal.
Key $BTC levels I marked:
Support: 85000-85300; if broken, look at 84500-84800, then down to 83500.
Resistance: 86500-87238; only a volume-backed break above here can target 88000-90000; failure to hold means a pullback after the rally.
My strategy: I didn't chase this morning and am not in a hurry now. I reduced some short-term positions around 86800 and am holding the rest. If it retraces to around 85000 with low volume and stabilizes, I'll lightly add with a stop loss below 84500; if it surges to 87238 without volume, I'll continue reducing.New job creation has clearly slowed down, the unemployment rate is rising, and wage growth is also decelerating. For the market, this not only reduces the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates in October, but more importantly, it further compresses the necessity and room for tightening monetary policy in December and even into 2026. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The market's previous biggest concern of “high interest rates lasting longer” can now breathe a sigh of relief. Weakening employment indicates demand is cooling, and slower wage growth reduces the risk of a wage-inflation spiral. The Federal Reserve fully has the capital to remain patient and does not need to rush into further rate hikes. Overall, this is bearish for the dollar on the asset side, while benefiting U.S. Treasuries, gold, and risk assets. Treasury yields, especially short-term, are expected to decline; gold benefits from expectations of falling real rates and a weaker dollar; U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and high-valuation growth assets may see a recovery in risk appetite. However, it is important to note that if subsequent employment data deteriorates too quickly, market logic could shift from “soft landing easing” to “recession concerns,” so inflation, consumption, and corporate earnings must still be closely monitored. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised July nonfarm payrolls down from +21,000 to -10,000, and August from 162,000 to 133,000, a combined reduction of 60,000 compared to the original figures. Recently, there have indeed been many positive signals, including the SEC Chair’s proposal to promote stock market blockchain adoption, which is a positive sign for Bitcoin. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收Actually, some have opened short positions near 87000 on Bitcoin. You can set a break-even stop profit, meaning either this position exits without loss, or you bet on a double top, with a later pullback to around 74000-70000.Green毛 that night, one big trade covered two small ones completely.
First, look at the doubled $BTC long position: entered at 84,679.5, exited at 86,349.8, gaining nearly 1,670 points along the way. With 100x leverage, 3.89 BTC pocketed 6,287.13 USDT, a return of +190.83%.
$ETH long average price was 2,702.85, closed at 2,687.77, completely opposite direction. 80 ETH, also 100x leverage, lost 1,327.69 USDT, a return of -61.40%. Position opened at 01:37 AM, held until 05:43 AM before giving up and cutting losses.
BTC short was even shorter-lived: opened short at 84,491.7, but price went up, exited at 84,666.1. From 05:53 to 06:02, less than 10 minutes, 5 BTC lost 1,085.29 USDT, -25.69%.
In total, the profitable trade made 6,287 USDT, while the two losing trades totaled about 2,412 USDT loss. The result is indeed big wins and small losses, but the cost was holding 100x leverage all along. Aggressive style, huge exposure, just watch the show, don’t copy it.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly cooled rate hike expectations, but I'm still holding short positions
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000, expected 90,000, a direct surprise. Rate hike expectations dropped sharply, the market got excited, BTC surged to 87,000, ETH also pulled up. But I'm still holding short positions, why? Because the current risks are not in rate hikes, but elsewhere.
$BTC
BTC surged to 87,000, up over 3%, looks strong. But the range from 87,000 to 90,000 is all previous trapped positions, it's not easy to break through at once. The nonfarm surprise is indeed positive, but when the good news is fully priced in, it turns negative. Also, oil prices remain high, the situation in Iran is tense, the Strait of Hormuz can be closed at any time, if oil prices spike, inflation returns, and rate hike expectations rise again. Trump's midterm elections are approaching, policies can change suddenly, uncertainty is high.
$ETH
I'm still holding my short at 2671 on ETH, now around 2750, a small loss. But I'm not worried, ETH is weaker than BTC, strong resistance at 2800 above, it can't break through. ETF funds have been flowing out, the ecosystem has no new stories, price rises just follow the market. The nonfarm positive news has been digested, it should fall.
$ZEC
The privacy coin logic still holds, but this coin is very volatile, nonfarm data has limited impact, mainly speculation by capital. Play with small positions only.
Summary: The nonfarm surprise is positive, but only short-term. The real risks lie in oil prices, Iran situation, and Trump's midterm elections. Without resolving these uncertainties, the market won't trend unilaterally. Holding short positions, wait until the positive news is fully digested before reassessing #ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700 $ZEC $ZEC $ZEC This surge has indeed been fierce, but at this point, it's no longer suitable to blindly chase longs.
After consecutive rallies earlier, short-term profit-taking is very heavy. The current market looks more like a high-level battle between bulls and bears. The key focus next is around 1300; as long as this level holds, the overall bullish structure remains. Only after firmly reclaiming 1400–1410 can there be expectations to challenge previous highs again.
Conversely, if 1300 is broken down with volume, be cautious that this rally may enter a deeper level of correction.
My thinking is simple: the trend hasn't completely broken down yet, but high-level volatility has clearly increased. Now, rather than guessing the top, it's more important to watch key supports and breakout confirmations.
Especially be careful with position sizing in contracts; with ZEC's volatility, a single spike could wipe out high leverage.
This is just my personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. I started to suspect that the buyer of 3.75 million HYPE off-platform from Labs might actually be Hyperliquid Strategies
The last cash balance they reported was "only" $294M, but that was a week late, so they very likely now have enough cash (~$330M market cap at announcement, minus any discount they get)
And this explains why they allow their cash balance to increase while continuing to take advantage of the stock issuance program at the prevailing market price (usually preferring to buy HYPE immediately when new shares are issued)$HYPE #AnthropicEyesNovIPO Delisted globally, yet listed on the NYSE. A coin delisted by multiple major exchanges was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August. Grayscale's ZCSH, the world's first privacy coin spot ETF. Banned in over a dozen countries, the EU's MiCA will completely ban it next year, but the US has granted it a license. Only four words to choose privacy. Monero enforces anonymity, $ZEC is visible if you check it. It found a loophole and slipped through. There's no doubt it's the leader in this field $ZEC Following up on my previous article, I bought BTC and ETH during the pullback, and CT bought on the dip. Currently, my account balance is 650U. I'm considering whether to close my position. Can any experts give me some advice? I'm a bit at a loss—when losing, I hold on stubbornly; when winning, I find it hard to hold.During this latest rebound, $BTC pushed above $87,000 while $ETH reclaimed the $2,800 area, with both assets moving closer to their previous highs. $ZEC, however, is still struggling to reclaim $1,350. Compared with the broader market, its relative strength remains noticeably weaker. When an asset leads the market early but starts losing momentum while the broader market continues recovering, that can be an important sign that its trend structure is changing. For now, I’m not looking to close thThe only applicable scenario for reversing positions: when the market suddenly plunges straight down, accompanied by a divergence signal, and the bears rapidly and completely unload. Only when the rebound in such a market is sufficiently certain is it worth reversing positions.
For other declines within a range-bound market, without divergence and not a one-time sharp plunge, do not reverse positions. Range-bound tug-of-war easily leads to mistimed entries and increasingly heavy positions.
Updated trading rules:
✅ Reversing positions is only for scenarios of a straight sharp plunge plus divergence; both conditions must be met to consider acting, if either is missing, abandon reversing.
✅ Defend only at the coldest bottom points; do not reverse in range-bound markets.
✅ If opportunity certainty is low, stay out and observe; avoid repeatedly adding positions or switching long/short during the session.
✅ Standard cold bottom single position limit is 30%, never over-leverage.
✅ Only buy at cold bottom points from straight sharp drops; avoid entering during range-bound or gradual declines.
✅ On the first rebound wave, prioritize halving added positions to lock in profits.
✅ Do not repeatedly buy at the same low point or open both long and short positions simultaneously to prevent position stacking.
✅ For the second and subsequent low points, only observe, avoid heavy positions.
✅ Only one reverse close is allowed per market wave; no further additions after reversing.
✅ Reversing must wait for confirmation of market level and K-line points; if points are not properly hit, do not reverse.
✅ If after entry the market does not rebound and continues to fall, exit immediately; do not hold losing positions.
✅ In high-level range-bound areas, new simultaneous long and short positions are prohibited.
Core: Divergence plus straight sharp plunge, both conditions together form the exclusive entry window for reversing positions. Missing one means no reversal.$ETH daily chart overall maintains an upward channel, with the price consolidating near the high around 2700. After previously surging to 2806, the bullish momentum slowed down, no longer rising rapidly, entering a range-bound tug-of-war phase.
Holding short positions with an average entry price of 2643, the market rebound has caused unrealized losses. The upper Bollinger Band at 2830 acts as strong resistance above, while the middle band at 2621 serves as key support. In the short term, the market is trapped oscillating within this range.
Currently, there is no rush to take action; continue holding positions and wait. Focus on observing the previous high at 2806—if multiple attempts to break through fail and a stagnation candlestick pattern appears, a correction opportunity will arise. $ETH Traders who were waiting for a deeper correction before entering have had a tough time. Each dip has been met with renewed buying, and instead of a sharp retracement, BTC has continued to grind higher. Meanwhile, those waiting for a better entry are still sitting on the sidelines. ETH tells a slightly different story. Compared with BTC, its momentum looks noticeably weaker. In previous rallies, ETH could move with much greater elasticity once momentum arrived. This time, BTC is leading the move,I ended up adding another 7,500 yuan to the account and jumped back into the market. And guess what? I managed to mess up almost immediately. I wanted to open a full-position trade, but I clicked the wrong margin mode and accidentally entered with isolated margin. Within just a few minutes, the position was liquidated. 💀 Honestly, that one was completely on me. The market didn’t even need to beat me — my own rushed operation did the job. I was too eager, didn’t double-check the settings, and paI’m not changing my longer-term view just because of a few failed breakouts. If buying momentum returns and UNI can reclaim $9.30 with convincing volume, the market could start looking very different. For tonight’s U.S. jobs data, I’m watching the reaction rather than assuming a particular outcome. A stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected payroll number could both trigger significant volatility as traders reassess the path of interest rates. For now, patience is the game. $9.30 remains tTonight's non-farm payrolls: the real danger isn't the numbers themselves, but the first candlestick misleading everyone to the same side. Market consensus is roughly an increase of 90,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, but don't just look at the headline.
If employment is weak, and both unemployment rate and wages cool down, US Treasury yields will fall, creating conditions for BTC to continue; if employment is strong or wages heat up again, yields will surge, and a breakout near previous highs is likely to be taken profit from first. The hardest scenario is data divergence, where the first wave is most prone to reversal.
Approach: don't add positions before the release, don't chase in the first 5 to 15 minutes, wait until BTC and US Treasury yields align in direction before managing existing positions. Will you grab the first wave, or wait for the second confirmation? $BTCCan the user advantages of $JUP aggregated trading be transformed into token advantages?
The trading aggregation sector where JUP operates benefits from the active Solana ecosystem. User product usage and token holding are two different needs; it depends on how revenue, governance, and incentives are connected.
If user growth relies on subsidies, and trading and retention decline after subsidies end, the quality of growth needs to be reassessed.Bitcoin’s ETF inflow streak was interrupted on September 30 after nine consecutive days of net inflows. The important point is that this looks more like a cooling of demand than a broad institutional exit. The cumulative inflow reached roughly $3.08B, with the strongest single-day inflow occurring around September 21 at close to $1B. More recently, daily inflows have fallen to only tens of millions, showing that the pace of fresh buying has slowed considerably. Ethereum is showing a slightly difA while ago, I was scrolling through my phone late at night and saw someone showing off their profits, saying $BTC is easy to buy a little and that's enough. I didn't think much at the time, downloaded an app, and jumped in. After buying, I felt uneasy and stared at the screen all night. The next day it went up a little, so I quickly sold. After selling, it kept rising, which made me scratch my head in frustration. Later, a colleague talked about $ETH, saying it's good for long-term holding. I followed the trend and bought some, but it stayed flat for half a month. Every day I opened the app, it was the same. I really couldn't take it and cut my losses. A few days after selling, it moved, and I slapped my thigh. Then I randomly looked into $SOL, bought it, and got stuck. It was stuck for almost two months, with my account showing red every day. The day I broke even, I immediately sold. After selling, it surged again, and I stared at the screen laughing for a long time. Now I don't mess around anymore. I only play with spare money, don't touch contracts, don't borrow money, and don't listen to trading tips. If I make money, I treat myself well; if I lose, I consider it tuition. I check at most twice a day. Being able to sleep well at night is better than anything. This isn't a path for ordinary people to get rich quickly. Just treat it as a high-risk hobby. Don't put your life on the line. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 But a strong daily percentage does not automatically mean a trend is established.
The screenshot shows several ETFs with sizeable gains, particularly xKORU, xINTW and $xMVLL .
The next challenge for buyers is confirmation: holding higher levels, maintaining participation and avoiding a quick reversal.
Momentum gets attention. Confirmation builds the bigger picture.In the past 5 days, Brother Maji has won 10 consecutive trades on PUMP, earning $1.34 million.
A "liquidation king" playing Meme coins, winning 10 rounds in a row, sounds impressive.
But looking at the positions: he holds 33,950 ETH long (92.56 million), 409 BTC long (35.22 million), and 180,000 HYPE long (16.16 million). The three combined total 144 million.
Last week, unrealized profits shrank from 5.8 million to 73,000; this week he recovered 1.34 million through PUMP, then didn’t exit and continued to add to his positions.
He’s not gambling on PUMP, but using small position profits to support large positions. Retail investors take profits and run, or cut losses; he does the opposite—adds on losses and compounds on gains.
The problem isn’t the direction, but the position size being too large. 25x ETH, 40x BTC leverage, any pullback could bring him to the liquidation edge. If ETH drops 5%, that 1.34 million instantly goes to zero or even negative.
He won 10 rounds, but that doesn’t mean he won the market.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$ETH $BTC $HYPE #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 Foresight News quotes community information: The independent product homepage of Sui ecosystem's "superfluid AMM" STEAMM will be deactivated on October 5, 2026, but existing positions can still be accessed through Suilend. Users can withdraw, repay, and exit pools at any time; this is neither an exit scam nor a freeze.
First, understand what STEAMM is: a super liquidity AMM incubated by Suilend that deposits "idle funds" in the pool back into the Suilend lending market to earn secondary yields. It supports three curve types: CPMM, vCPMM, and OMM, and is a key component in Sui DeFi for integrating "lending + swap." After Bluewater acquired Suilend, STEAMM, and SpringSui in June this year, the product line was set for reorganization—the independent steamm.fi style entry will be phased out, and its functions integrated into the Suilend all-in-one interface. This is a routine move following the acquisition, not a crash.$BTC is just like this. When it hit 71, someone told me the non-farm payrolls were good. So what if the non-farm payrolls are good? It's just a worthless piece of news. To be honest, how much can it affect my monthly K-line trend? 😂
This is the big trend, this is the real solid structure.
To put it nicely: how do you know the non-farm payroll news was deliberately released for whom to hear? 😂 $BTC Nonfarm payrolls 29,000 vs expected 90,000, unemployment rate 4.2%.
This data rubbed traders the wrong way twice:
Before the open, they were still betting "the data is too weak so no rate hike,"
but with data this weak, the rate hike narrative was completely squeezed out.
The 30-year US Treasury yield actually dropped by 2.8 basis points.
The interesting part is that the market is not recovering, it's front-running.
Liquidations of 122 million were all short positions dying upfront, while longs entered later.
I'm only doing one thing here:
Not guessing direction, waiting to see if volatility gives an opportunity.
At the 86,000 level, betting on direction is less reliable than betting on surviving longer. #U.S. Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved
U.S. Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved
On October 1, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield intraday reached 5.34%, the highest since 2002; the 30-year yield rose to 5.69%, also the highest in 24 years. Even though August's PCE was below expectations, buying momentum did not sustain, and yields rose again afterward—the focus of bond market trading is no longer about whether to raise interest rates.
Three structural forces are driving this. The Middle East conflict is pushing up energy inflation, U.S. public debt has surpassed 40 trillion, and AI infrastructure is generating massive private sector financing demand, leading the market to require higher term premiums. A Goldman Sachs trading desk head bluntly stated that long bonds "are still completely ignored." T. Rowe Price economists point out that these forces are structural and will not disappear quickly.
BTC is currently around 85,000-86,000, briefly touching 86,885 before the employment data release, but the 5.34% yield capped the gains. Resistance is at 87,000, support at 84,500. Some positions have stop-losses below 84,000; empty positions should wait for a pullback to stabilize at 85,000 before entering, avoid chasing highs.
Long-term rates have not peaked, risk appetite is hard to recover. What do you think? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $CL crude oil has been received, let's see if it can reach 93. The 88 level for crude oil is indeed strong support, tested multiple times without breaking. As long as there is no major news, it shouldn't fall below this level in the short term. You can trade T back and forth within the 88-93 range!!ZRO suddenly surged over 13% today, with the price reaching around $1.9 at one point.
This time, it’s not just a simple pump. The LayerZero CEO recently revealed that the protocol now processes about $10 billion to $15 billion in cross-chain transaction volume every month. Meanwhile, the open interest (OI) of ZRO perpetual contracts has also risen to approximately $268 million.
Altcoin Buzz
① Why did it rise this wave? I think the core reason is that “protocol data can finally connect with the coin price.”
LayerZero’s biggest problem before was that the project was huge with many partnerships, but the market always asked: With so much cross-chain traffic, what does it have to do with ZRO?
Now, the monthly $10 billion to $15 billion cross-chain volume at least proves the protocol itself is still being actively used, not just supported by a round of airdrop hype.
② But there is also a risk now
$ZRO surged quickly today, and contract OI rose along with it.
This structure indicates that chasing long positions has clearly entered the market.
If the price continues to rise but OI grows faster than spot trading volume, I will start to be cautious because the market can easily shift from spot-driven to leverage-driven, and a crash could trigger a cascade of long liquidations.
③ I won’t chase directly now
It has already surged over 13% today, and chasing longs at this level has mediocre cost-effectiveness.