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The SEC proposal treats crypto custody less as a product feature than a governance function. Allowing adviser self-custody, but tying it to security controls, insurance, and independent examinations, could widen options while setting a high operational bar.
The comment period will show whether those safeguards are workable in practice.
#SECCryptoCustodyRules $BEAT This grid was opened with 1 dollar, and after fifty days it's now at 0.08, almost on par with lab. There must be quite a few genius traders stuck in the trap.[Today's Review: A Painful Lesson of 450,000 U, a Trade Destroyed by "Getting Overconfident"] I must write down this experience today and engrave it in my bones. Including today's chain of losses, I have accumulated a total loss of 450,000 U during this period. And this astronomical number is entirely caused by my emotional loss of control and getting overconfident. Today, I paid the most expensive tuition fee since entering the circle. This morning, SOL opened a short at 118 and rebounded all tIn brief, there are three main reasons why $PONS has dropped to this level.
1. The buyback is not automatic; the team has to manually operate the buyback machine, resulting in very little buyback volume each day.
2. The Ronbinhood chain has cooled down; PONS income is 10 times less compared to its peak.
3. Because of the pump, the launchpad is a very calculated business. When income is high, everyone buys; when income is low, everyone sells.
At the same time, the highly anticipated Hood Summit held on September 29/30 had no effect, further worsening sentiment. $ETH at $2.67K, but my altseason roadmap goes much higher
I’m watching $10K–$15K as a long-term cycle zone, not a guaranteed target
The interesting part is what ETH needs to prove first: reclaim the $2.8K area, rebuild momentum, and see ETF demand return after three straight sessions of outflows
If those pieces align, the $5K+ area becomes an important milestone before any bigger target comes into play
What’s your ETH target? 👇$PONS Why was the burn so high before, and why is it so low now?
Three reasons:
Previously the coin was cheap: In August, PONS was only a few cents, and 1 million USD could burn tens of millions of tokens; now at 0.43 USD, it can only burn a bit over two million tokens.
Previously income was high: In early September, daily fees were several million USD, now about 200,000 USD per day.
Now buybacks are less frequent: Most income comes from V2, only about 4% is actually used to burn PONS, and the buyback program is paused most of the time.
Before it was "cheap coin + lots of money + full buyback",
Now it is "expensive coin + less money + buyback half-paused".
Compare with $PUMP:
PUMP: 50% of income is written into the rules for buybacks, burning about 1 million USD daily, buyback yield about 15%
PONS: actually only about 4% of income is used for burning, about 8,500 USD daily, buyback yield about 1%
Both are launchpad platform tokens, PUMP is rule-bound and burns daily; PONS has income but burning depends on the team.
Reasonable valuation depends on how much buyback is activated:
Maintain current burn rate: 0.02 to 0.03 USD
Buyback program running full speed all day: 0.26 to 0.44 USD
Most income used for burning: 0.38 to 0.63 USD.
Currently at 0.43 USD is basically betting on full buyback operation.
Keep an eye on daily income and burn. This is the key to PONS's floor price.Have you noticed that the market has been particularly frustrating lately😮💨
On one hand, a continuous stream of ETF funds is supporting Bitcoin to move upward, with the price successfully standing above the 86000 mark. Yesterday, a large number of shorts exited the market, with over a hundred million dollars in short positions liquidated. This upward move is more driven by solid institutional buying rather than retail leverage.
However, unexpectedly, geopolitical uncertainties emerged midway, with an oil tanker attack incident in the Strait of Hormuz. Although the accident caused no casualties and the fire has been extinguished, it instantly triggered a risk-averse sentiment across the market.
The tug of war between these two forces has resulted in the current back-and-forth volatile situation. Bitcoin’s own positioning is quite contradictory: when funds flow in, it is considered a growth asset; but once geopolitical turmoil arises, people treat it as a safe haven. These two logics repeatedly compete, so this kind of large swing volatility is very likely to continue in the short term. Short-term traders must carefully manage their positions.
$BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 The SEC has officially proposed new crypto asset custody rules, bringing Wall Street one step closer to "compliantly holding coins."
According to the proposal, registered investment advisers and regulated funds can self-custody some crypto assets when conditions are met, and they can also use state-level trust companies as custodians; at the same time, audit, record-keeping, and disclosure requirements will be updated accordingly. The plan even includes private key management, at least two-person joint authorization, annual cybersecurity reviews, and independent internal control reports. Interestingly, the SEC Chair openly stated that many existing custody rules predate the internet era and are clearly outdated for crypto assets.
What needs to be kept in mind is: the rules are still in the proposal stage, with a 60-day public comment period ahead, the final version is not yet determined, and the scope of application is still subject to securities laws. So for Bitcoin, this will not directly translate into buying pressure in the short term.
My view is that this is more like building infrastructure—first clarifying "how to hold compliantly," so that in the long term, capital can confidently flow in.
$BTCAfter hitting resistance, $BTC and $ETH simultaneously shifted into defense mode
Despite the positive non-farm payroll data, buying momentum did not continue, ETF funds turned to outflows, and market heat clearly cooled down. BTC surged to 87239 on the 4-hour chart before a long bearish candle pulled it back, with the price returning near the Bollinger middle band. The lower Bollinger band at 82627 and EMA100 at 82911 form a key defensive line: holding this means the larger upward structure remains; a decisive break below will open room for a deeper correction. The old consolidation zone between 85000 and 85600 must be reclaimed before another attempt at 87239 is possible. EMA20 has turned down, indicating weakening short-term momentum, so expect consolidation to digest.
ETH appears more passive, quickly retreating after hitting 2777 and currently pressured at the middle band. Around 2647, the Bollinger lower band and EMA100 overlap, serving as a short-term lifeline; heavy resistance lies between 2690 and 2734, and only a firm break above 2734 could reverse the weakness. The 4-hour moving averages are trending down, with large holders gradually withdrawing longs, indicating ETH is still mainly following BTC and lacks proactive leading momentum.
Overall, if both break the key 4-hour supports simultaneously, the market may face a more severe correction.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Weekend Market Snapshot📊
GM☀️
$BTC 84.5K
Holding steady above 84K, the overall structure remains strong. The 86K–87K range is a strong resistance; to open up upward space, a volume breakout of this range is necessary. Weekend liquidity is weak, so a direct hard push is quite challenging.
$ETH around 2.67K
2.65K is the lifeline support; if broken, the short-term rebound structure will be damaged. Only by holding above and reclaiming 2.75K is there a chance to challenge 2.80K. Currently, it is following BTC's oscillation, lacking independent upward momentum.
SOL around 119
The key support at 117 must hold to maintain the consolidation pattern. The 123–125$ range is the resistance zone above; only with volume and a break above can new upward space open.
After Friday's rally, BTC has entered a consolidation and cooling phase, while ETH and SOL show good resilience. Weekend market liquidity shrinks, often leading to smaller fluctuations; the effectiveness of support and resistance is amplified. Whether this range holds will directly affect the direction of next week's opening.👀
$BTC $ETH $SOLOptimistic about interest rate cuts, optimistic about the crypto space.
The core logic behind the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut strategy is not simply to save itself, but to first use high oil prices + high interest rates to complete a "global stress screening," and then achieve targeted harvesting through rate cuts, which is distinctly different from the traditional textbook logic of rate cuts.
1. The special "endure first, then explode" rate cut logic
Core argument:
1. Endure the dual pressure first: The U.S. is currently burdened simultaneously by high oil prices, high interest rates, and high debt. Continuing to raise rates directly would have its policy effect offset by inflation driven up by high oil prices, which would instead drag itself down first. Therefore, it chooses "not to resolve Iran, allowing oil prices to remain high," using high oil prices to transmit inflation pressure outward.
2. Wait for external collapse first: Under the combination of high oil prices + high interest rates, global dollar demand is pushed up. Capital will continue to flow out from emerging markets and highly indebted economies lacking dollars. Asset chains and debt chains in some economies will break first. The U.S. completes the layout of "waiting for the target groups to be unable to endure first" during this process.
3. Finally, cut rates to harvest: When external pressure reaches a critical point, the U.S. will launch large-scale rate cuts, releasing massive liquidity, using low-cost dollars to bottom-fish global core assets that have already been hammered down.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
ETF capital flow turns negative: BTC and ETH outflows in sync, short-term caution for profit-taking
The US Bitcoin spot ETF, after nine consecutive days of net inflows totaling about $3.1 billion, shifted to net outflows for two consecutive days starting September 30, totaling approximately $173 million. The Ethereum spot ETF also experienced net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of about $55.4 million on October 1. Previously, BTC and ETH ETF capital flows diverged but have now synchronized in outflows, with other capital indicators also cooling down. Coinbase reports show BTC profit-taking has reached a yearly high, and spot demand is slowing.
Logical analysis: The prior rise accumulated a large amount of profit-taking positions; ETF inflows have slowed and turned to outflows, indicating weakening marginal buying. BTC and ETH outflows in sync imply a short-term contraction in risk appetite, no longer just BTC leading. If outflows continue, it may trigger leveraged long liquidations, causing a deeper correction.
Trading strategy: Monitor whether BTC can hold recent key support. If the rebound is on low volume and ETFs continue to outflow, consider light short positions on the rebound with stop-loss at previous highs; if ETFs return to net inflows and price breaks resistance with volume, then wait or follow the trend for short-term longs. If ETH continues to underperform BTC, prioritize shorting ETH/BTC. Core principle: do not chase longs when capital weakens, control position size, and set stop-losses properly. $BTC $ETH On October 6th, the Singapore OKX Now conference, themed "The Future Has Arrived," will be live-streamed by Planet throughout the event.
To be honest, the OKX APP that we use daily now is already extremely smooth in trading experience, deposit and withdrawal payments, and on-chain interactions. Ordinary users will find it hard to spot major flaws in the experience.
However, as exchanges enter a phase of absolute homogenization, simply optimizing the user interface no longer brings incremental growth. This conference will discuss AI, payments, trading, and the X Layer on-chain ecosystem.
The most critical highlight is actually how OKX plans to extend its infrastructure capabilities outward and the future direction of OKX.
This time, let's focus on the AI segment.
Recently, when OKX AI launched the Agent trading market, there was a wave of hype, but the heat has clearly cooled off lately. Currently, the AI implemented in the product mainly focuses on on-chain token analysis and auxiliary data mining. It is a tool above the passing line but not yet at the level to change trading paradigms.
In the context of exchanges, the real value of AI is definitely not about creating fancy chat boxes, but whether it can directly intervene in liquidity scheduling, automated strategy execution, and risk isolation.
People look at AI not to see how it chats, but to see if it can help ordinary users outperform liquidation logic in extreme market conditions or optimize Gas costs and cross-chain paths to the utmost in complex on-chain interactions.
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 The SEC has proposed a revision to the crypto asset custody rules.
This needs to be clarified because it is completely opposite to the direction from three years ago.
In 2023, the SEC proposal led by Gensler stated: crypto assets must be held by qualified custodians, and RIAs cannot self-custody client crypto assets.
Today, the SEC proposal led by Atkins allows RIAs to self-custody client crypto assets under certain conditions—if they have the expertise and conduct at least annual audits of their cybersecurity systems.
The same regulator, three years, has proposed two completely opposite directions.
Atkins said:
"The current rules were designed for a bygone era, providing a compliance path for investment advisors and funds—where previously there was nothing."
This "nothing" is the core—many RIAs want to allocate crypto assets but lacked a clear compliance framework, so they did not enter the market. Today's proposal opens a door for them.
It also allows state-chartered trust companies to act as custodians, recognizing a broader custody network beyond Coinbase and Fidelity Digital Assets.
The proposal enters a 60-day public comment period, and it will take time before it becomes a formal rule.
But this fills the last gap on the SEC crypto policy list led by Atkins this year—innovation exemptions (tokenized stocks), Reg Crypto assets, and today's custody rules have all been proposed.
$BTC ZEC really messed me up this time.
I thought I would exit at 1450, didn’t exit even at 1470, and stubbornly held the stop loss at 1350, but the longer I held, the worse it got. Looking back now, the biggest problem wasn’t how much ZEC fell, but that I didn’t follow the discipline I set for myself.
Looking at BTC, it even rebounded to around 86000 yesterday, now about 84500, the pullback isn’t as dramatic as ZEC’s. As long as BTC’s key support isn’t broken, I still treat it as a consolidation rather than a complete trend breakdown.
ETH actually makes me feel more comfortable, oscillating between 2600 and 2800, with quick rebounds after each dip. Although ETH/BTC is still relatively weak, long positions in ETH are definitely easier to unwind than in a volatile coin like ZEC.
So my feeling now is simple: watch BTC for direction, wait for rebounds in ETH, and really take stop losses seriously with high-volatility coins like ZEC. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Continue to track the fundamental changes of $AAVE
AAVE's recent noteworthy data:
EtherFi's Spoke loan amount on Aave V4 has exceeded $100 million, plus about $35 million in its own account.
EtherFi is currently one of the important sources of credit growth for Aave V4. As consumption and borrowing demand continue to expand, there is still room for growth in this scale.
More notably is the Swap revenue. In September alone, it exceeded $500,000, setting a new record.
The market may currently be underestimating the income potential after Aave applications truly scale.
If in the future millions of users complete lending, trading, and other financial activities within one application, Swap could very well become one of Aave's most important sources of income.
Aave's current market cap is only $2.5 billion. Hopefully, driven by the overall crypto and stock market trends, combined with the buyback and burn flywheel of Aave 3.0, it can break through the $10 billion market cap milestone soon! In a trading world filled with leverage and volatility, the hardest thing to resist is never the lure of the market, but the clamor of peers.
When you see others doubling their money in a single day, watching the screen flash with thrilling tales of huge profits,
your inner anxiety grows wildly like weeds.
You want to be faster, even faster, so you start increasing the risk exposure of each trade, trying to fill your dry account instantly with a torrential downpour.
But the downpour comes fiercely and leaves messily; it leaves nothing but mud and drawdowns in your account.
In this fiercely craving "fast" battlefield, "slow" instead becomes a rare and supreme wisdom.
Going all-in with heavy positions, frequent trading, trying to catch every tiny swing—these are all "downpour-style" trades.
The downpour seems grand, but its essence is extremely fragile.
When all funds are paying for a brief frenzy,
even the slightest market pullback can instantly dry up the downpour.
The financial market has its own cold physical laws:
Money earned by downpour-style heavy positions will surely be taken away with principal and interest by the next unpredictable storm.
Because your system leaves no room for error in the face of the unexpected.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 $BTC just exploded with 300 million in contracts yesterday, and today's leverage has piled back up 😂
Now the futures OI is not dropping but rising, already above 54 billion USD. Since there's more fuel, the spike movement probably won't end in the short term, and we still need to find opportunities to clear leverage again.
Currently, there's a huge whale sell wall around $BTC 91,000, and 82,000 is a cluster of long support; there's a story to tell both up and down.
The spot market is similar; although ETFs have flowed back, the quality is average: IBIT alone brought in nearly 200 million, but FBTC and ARKB have moved out nearly 100 million.
With thin volume during the holiday, don't chase the pulse that surged to 87,000; wait for trading volume to recover after the holiday to verify the quality.$LTC is around $69.5, but I’m looking beyond the current move
Litecoin just marked 15 years of uninterrupted operation, while cLTC is being planned for Canton and LitVM is expanding Litecoin into an EVM-compatible smart-contract ecosystem
From here, $500 would mean roughly a 7.2× move — ambitious, but that’s exactly why the 16th anniversary is worth watching
The real question: can new utility and institutional access turn LTC into more than a payments asset? BTC and ETH ETF flows are showing signs of cooling.
Spot BTC ETFs saw about $173M in net outflows across Sep. 30–Oct. 1, ending a 9-session streak that attracted roughly $3.1B.
ETH ETFs also posted 3 straight sessions of outflows, while BTC profit-taking hit a YTD high.
Is this just a healthy pause, or a warning that demand is weakening?
#BTCETHETFOutflows Woke up from a sleep, and the $ZEC short position successfully took profit, from 1409 to 1300, which counts as a successful trade.
Reviewing it, this was a pretty standard pullback short. Looking at ZEC's 1h K-line chart, after breaking below the long-term uptrend line, I promptly changed my trading mindset: switching from buying the dip to shorting the rally.
The best short entry after breaking the trendline is near the price's first pullback to the trendline; my trading plan was to place two short orders at 1409 and 1419, with a stop loss above 1430, and take profit down at the 1300 round number.
The price indeed pulled back as expected, reaching a high of 1412. It's a bit of a pity that the 1419 short order didn't get filled; however, waiting to short after the price pulled back to the trendline was a very standard trade, and I am personally quite satisfied.
NFA, DYOR!
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
@OKX星球 @可乐Cola_OKX 💧 LIQUIDITY QUALITY TEST
$DOGE: spread 0.011% | top-5 bid depth $391.2K
$SKHYNIX: spread 0.007% | top-5 bid depth $71.9K
$PUMP: spread 0.019% | top-5 bid depth $21.6K
$DOGE has the deepest visible bid support in this snapshot. Which coin would you trust in fast volatility?
$SKHYNIX $PUMP $DOGE
#TraderDesk #Crypto
⚠️ NFA — manage risk and DYOR.Today is Saturday, so market volatility is very low.
However, there will be a large-scale surge or drop during the night.
Waiting for the direction after Monday.
Non-farm payroll data released, BTC broke the range then quickly fell back, with over 570 million liquidated in 24 hours, a double kill for bulls and bears!
September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations, and the previous value was significantly revised down. US bonds and oil prices fell back, and rate hike expectations were postponed to December.
Capital differentiation is obvious: BTC spot ETF inflows, ETH ETF continuous outflows, BTC strong, ETH weak.
SEC released new custody regulations, regulatory framework continues to be implemented.
Now it is the National Day holiday weekend, market liquidity is very poor. Remember: the short-term is just a low-volume rebound, not a reversal!
The market is for those who are prepared, hope everyone gets rich💰#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 The SEC has approved 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs. What's noteworthy here isn't the "3x" itself, but that crypto assets are starting to get access to more aggressive traditional trading tools.
Simply put: if BTC rises 1% in a day, these products theoretically rise about 3%; if it falls 1%, they fall about 3% as well. But the key is that they track "daily" performance, so long-term returns are not equal to 3 times BTC's price changes. In a highly volatile environment, compounding and path dependency amplify deviations, and there can even be cases where BTC rises but the 3x product underperforms expectations over the long term. This risk is also noted in the filing documents.
My judgment: this is a short-term sentiment positive, but it should not be directly considered a fundamental positive. It adds trading tools, but does not mean institutional spot funds will immediately flow back.
Next, watch three things: ETF fund flows, the trading volume of these products, and whether BTC spot can strengthen simultaneously. The more leveraged tools there are, the more opportunities and risks are amplified simultaneously.
$BTC $ETH$BTC $ETH $ZEC I really want to bottom-fish zec, I was a bit tempted just now, but clearly it hasn't stopped falling yet, nor has it turned into an upward trend. Then I remembered my old trading rule: no bottom-fishing, no top-picking, only trade the trend. But in practice, I always end up bottom-fishing and top-picking, and that's how losses happen.
Trading is a battle against yourself. In the short term, you might make money, but over time, you might not keep your trading discipline in mind. That one wave could take everything from you. Humans aren't machines; it's impossible to maintain discipline for a long time. The discipline you set today, two or three years later, you might only vaguely remember it. That is the biggest enemy.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Three price levels placed together do not mean all three can be bought
$BTC is hanging at 85.5K, $ETH at 2.72K, $XRP reported at 1.51.
These three numbers are not target prices, but current transaction levels.
How support and resistance come about:
They are not calculated by anyone, but formed by piled orders.
When buy orders dominate, it becomes support; when sell orders dominate, it becomes resistance.
Price bounces when it hits these levels; if it can't bounce, it breaks through.
The easiest mistake to make:
85K, 2.74K, 1.56 are three lines, not three guaranteed floors.
If BTC falls below 85K, the previous batch of buy orders has been eaten up.
If ETH can't break through 2.74K, it means the sell orders above haven't been fully absorbed.
If XRP can't hold above 1.56, it remains in the original range.
The lines themselves don't block the price; it's the orders placed there that do.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $BTC $ETH Atomic swaps do not require bridge custody but depend on both parties being online simultaneously.
Atomic swaps use conditional locks to ensure that assets on both sides either complete the exchange or are both refunded, reducing the need to entrust funds to a central bridge. This is very attractive in peer-to-peer exchanges but requires both chains to support compatible conditions, time locks, and sufficiently stable confirmations, and it is usually not suitable for arbitrarily complex messages. If one party refuses to cooperate at the final stage, the protocol can refund, but this may cause the other party to bear waiting and opportunity costs. Cross-chain is not just about "whether it can be transferred," but also includes liquidity, pricing, confirmation time, and failure recovery. For $ETH users, atomicity ensures that the exchange result is not split, but it does not guarantee the best price nor that the chain itself will not reorganize. The technology reduces a class of counterparty risk while retaining market and network risks. Understanding its boundaries is more important than treating "trustless" as having no dependencies at all.
Atomic swaps also rely on reasonable time lock settings. If the window is too short, one party may not have enough time to complete; if too long, funds will be locked longer after failure. Parameters are a trade-off between convenience and protection. Since confirmation speeds differ between chains, time locks must allow for asymmetric margins and network latency.Looking back at history, in October 2025, when BTC stood near $122,000, the cumulative net inflow of the US spot BTC ETF had already reached a historical high of about $62.7 billion.
But then the crash on October 11 occurred, with over $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated, and market sentiment quickly reversed.
More importantly, ETF funds also showed a clear turning point here.
After nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, it turned to net outflows starting October 10; in the following days, the outflow of funds accelerated significantly.
So when looking at BTC, you can’t just look at the candlestick chart.
Price tells you what happened in the market, while fund flows tell you what the big money is doing. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC $ETH $SOL is back around $118, and I’m watching the $120–$122 zone closely
Price is holding above the $114–$115 area, which has become an important short-term level
ETF flows cooled after the strong September run, but Oct. 2 flipped back positive with a small inflow
Alpenglow is also moving through testing, keeping a major network catalyst in play
For me, $122 is the level that needs to break cleanly. Until then, I’m watching the rangeAfter taking profit on the short position, I reversed to go long; range-bound oscillation means going back and forth to take profits
Last night, the non-farm payrolls came in at 29,000 unexpectedly low, and the whole market turned bullish. $BTC surged to 87,000, $ETH pulled up to 2777. I said at the time: when good news is fully priced in, it becomes bad news; be wary of geopolitical and oil price risks. Then after midnight, Saudi Arabia launched 94 airstrikes against the Houthi forces, oil prices plummeted, and BTC and ETH both plunged sharply—from 87,000 down to 83,000 for BTC, and from 2800 down to 2650 for ETH.
I took partial profits on my short at 2745 around 2690, capturing a good move.
But after the drop, how do I see it? The geopolitical conflict is only temporary and hasn’t broken the range-bound oscillation. BTC’s range between 83,000 and 87,000 has strong support at the lower boundary; if it can’t break down, it will bounce back. ETH’s range between 2650 and 2800 is the same—no break means it’s still oscillating.
So I reversed and went long again. Now BTC is at 84,600, ETH at 2680, aiming to ride another rebound.
But my strategy is clear: still mainly short at highs, and only light long positions at lows. At the upper range near 87,000 and 2800, short; at the lower range near 83,000 and 2650, light long positions. Range trading means taking profits back and forth—don’t be greedy, take profits and run.
Focus on stability; even small profits count, not losing is earning. In this kind of market, don’t expect to get rich quick; repeatedly taking small profits is better than anything.
Where’s the next opportunity? Keep watching oil prices and the Middle East situation, plus next month’s CPI. Until the range breaks, trade within the range; if it breaks, follow the trend. Bloomberg reports that Anthropic may start its IPO marketing as early as the week of November 9, aiming to begin trading before Thanksgiving. This is still a plan revealed by insiders, and the date has not been finalized, but if it happens, the valuation discussion of the AI company will have a more direct public market reference.
Previously, what we saw were mostly financing offers and transaction targets. After going public, buyers and sellers express their opinions with funds every day, and analysts can continuously compare the company's operational performance with its price. This process may not be gentle, but it is useful for the industry.
I look forward to its listing, but I am also a bit worried that everyone will treat it as the unified valuation standard for all AI assets. Anthropic's customer structure and computing power arrangements have their own characteristics. If it trades well, it does not automatically prove that another model company is worth the same multiple; if it falls, it cannot negate all AI demand together.
What is really interesting is that the public market will require the company to continuously answer questions. After increased investment last quarter, did customers pay more next quarter? When growth slows, is there room to adjust costs? These questions must be answered repeatedly, not just once during financing.
For those who like Claude, the product being easy to use is certainly worth supporting. But user experience and the price of buying stock must be judged separately. By then, I want to see the official disclosures and issuance terms more; I won’t let the listing calendar create anxiety about missing opportunities for myself.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 An effective way to read orders is to divide the money flow into three layers: $BTC to determine the main direction, $ETH to check market strength, and $SOL, $XRP to monitor risk rotation. When BTC breaks resistance with real volume, you can wait for a retest instead of chasing the price. If ETH doesn't keep up or altcoins lose volume, leverage should be reduced. Trump's moves on digital assets may cause increased volatility, so capital management should be prioritized over prediction. Patience with retests is often more important than entering early. skill.Atomic swaps do not require bridge custody but depend on both parties being online simultaneously.
Atomic swaps use conditional locks to ensure that assets on both sides either complete the exchange or are both refunded, reducing the need to entrust funds to a central bridge. This is very attractive in peer-to-peer exchanges but requires both chains to support compatible conditions, time locks, and sufficiently stable confirmations, and it is usually not suitable for arbitrarily complex messages. If one party refuses to cooperate at the final stage, the protocol can refund, but this may cause the other party to bear waiting and opportunity costs. Cross-chain is not just about "whether it can be transferred," but also includes liquidity, pricing, confirmation time, and failure recovery. For $ETH users, atomicity ensures that the exchange result is not split, but it does not guarantee the best price nor that the chain itself will not reorganize. The technology reduces a class of counterparty risk while retaining market and network risks. Understanding its boundaries is more important than treating "trustless" as having no dependencies at all.
Atomic swaps also rely on reasonable time lock settings. If the window is too short, one party may not have enough time to complete; if too long, funds will be locked longer after failure. Parameters are a trade-off between convenience and protection. Since confirmation speeds differ between chains, time locks must allow for asymmetric margins and network latency.The biggest long-end story this week is not in the US, but in France.
The spread between French and German 10-year yields once surged to about 1.5 percentage points, the highest since the 2012 Eurozone debt crisis. The French 10-year yield touched 4.96%, with borrowing costs surpassing those of Italy and Greece — the top student borrowing now costs more than the underperformers.
The trigger is the 2027 budget plan: a €43 billion cut, with the deficit expected to expand to 5.5% of GDP this year. Commerzbank's comment was succinct: the bond market's development is worrying.
The problem is the spillover: bonds from Italy, Belgium, and Greece are being sold together, with funds all rushing to Germany for safety.
Everyone says bonds are being sold out of fear of Fed rate hikes, but the data says not entirely: the October rate hike bets have already collapsed, yet bonds are still being sold — on the US side, deficits and oil prices; on the European side, fiscal bombs — the same thing is driving the long end up: term premium.
So don’t just focus on the October 28 rate decision: the pricing power of the long end is not in the hands of central banks, but in the hands of the finance ministries of each country. Last night’s Bitcoin $BTC rally can be summed up in one sentence: it surged strongly, but the resistance above is indeed significant.
Last night, BTC once surged to around $87,000, then clearly pulled back, returning to a range of $84,000–$86,000. On the surface, it looks like a rise followed by a fall, but I don’t think we need to be too pessimistic; this seems more like a normal consolidation after a prior rally.
The core behind this rise is still the weak US employment data, which changed market expectations for the Fed’s future policies. At the same time, the decline in US Treasury yields provided some support for risk assets. However, the $87,000 area is currently a key level. The failure to hold above it last night indicates that selling pressure there is still quite evident. If BTC can reclaim $86,000 and break through $87,000, I believe there is room for further upside; but if it falls below around $83,000, caution is needed as it may re-enter a short-term consolidation.
Personally, I remain bullish for now. What really matters is not how much it rose overnight, but whether funds continue to flow in after the pullback. As long as the larger structure remains intact, I prefer to interpret this surge and pullback as the market gathering strength rather than ending. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 ZEC's "Sky is Falling": From a Surge Myth to a Trust Crack
Key Facts: ZEC plummeted 21% from its peak of $1,698 to $1,333, with a single-day drop of 7.29%.
1. Three Straws, Each Heavier Than the Last
The first straw is profit-taking. ZEC's cumulative gain this year reached 2496%, with its market cap rising from 82nd to 7th place. Whale Lee Goon Wang sold 15,000 ZEC (about $23 million) with a limit order 2% below market price, followed by another address selling 25,001 ZEC, profiting over $27 million. The sharper the prior gains, the more concentrated the selling pressure.
The second straw is a black swan event. Bitget exchange was hacked, losing about $387 million in assets. On-chain analyst ZachXBT found 2,746 ZEC (about $3.9 million) moved from the hacker's address into Zcash's privacy pool. The Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) saw a net outflow of $30.25 million in one day. The privacy feature being used to launder stolen funds dealt a heavy blow to ZEC, which aims to establish a Wall Street image.
The third and heaviest straw is the trust crack. The Orchard privacy pool vulnerability incident in June shook the market's fundamental trust in ZEC's supply credibility. The core development team, Electric Coin Company, disbanded in January, and development activity has dropped to its lowest level since 2021. This is not a technical correction but a value reassessment after a substantial erosion of the trust foundation. The overnight non-farm payrolls have been released. Let's review ETH's macro trend again at noon on the weekend — only about 29,000 jobs were added in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market has already shifted rate cut expectations to the October meeting. Spot price is around 2676, still a bit weak compared to Shanghai's opening at 2697.5; intraday high touched 2704, low dropped to 2651. The Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows in the past two days (about 50 million outflow on the 1st), and liquidity is naturally thin over the weekend.
In the short term, watch if it can reclaim 2680–2700; if it falls back to the daily low zone around 2651, don't try to hold hard. $BTC is hovering near 84,600, the rhythm is not yet aligned.
$BTC $ETH #ETH #Ethereum #BTC #Macro #NonFarm #ETFFlows #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market carries risks, please be cautious when entering. > 数据截至 2026-10-03 最新已收盘的4小时K线。本文只记录策略执行与盘后复盘，不构成交易建议。 昨天的组合还是六个多头。今天，ETH 和 XRP 先后完成方向切换，持仓结构变成四多、两空、九个空仓观察。 市场并没有给出整齐划一的方向。部分早期多头仍保留明显利润缓冲，部分强势币开始回吐；与此同时，两个主流币种已经由模型确认空头目标。今天最重要的工作不是判断整个市场究竟看多还是看空，而是接受每个品种正在走自己的结构。 ## 今日发生了什么 ### ETH：多头结束，转为空头观察 ETH 在 10 月 2 日 08:00 UTC 的已收盘K线上确认空头目标，结构参考价为 `2745.35`。最新收盘价为 `2680.74`，空头方向目前约有 `2.35%` 的价格缓冲。 当前 ADX 为 `23.00`，高于策略门槛 `17.00`。最新一根K线的成交量只有20根均量的约 `0.35` 倍，说明方向已经确认，但后续推动力度仍需要观察。 我的开仓思路很简单：旧多头失效以后，不凭主观看法继续等待反弹，而是按反向结构完成切换。现在没有继续追单的计划，只管理已经形成的空头仓位。规则参考保$BTC just swept $87,000 before a sharp rejection to ~$84,600 a $3,200 intraday range that shook out leveraged longs.
Yet the divergence deepens: wallets holding 10–10K BTC added 41,025 coins in 10 days, now controlling 67.93% of supply. Spot ETFs flipped back to +$102.7M inflows. Retail stays flat. Your read?
$BTC
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #G7OilReserveRelease Account peak at 12808, then a rapid drop to a low of 11767.
Watching the account curve fall sharply from the peak, the lowest point was only fully cleared in the late night. In my personal view, the market is currently in an awkward phase; there may be chips at even lower prices, but it still depends on how the market moves. If it goes down, buy in; if not, earn less, but I can survive.
SOL and DOGE are currently in a phase of oscillation and game theory, with no clear one-sided trend.
The real choice is not to rush in immediately to try to recover losses, but to stop first and accept this pullback.
The market is always there, but once the principal is completely lost, there is no longer the qualification to participate.
The hardest part of trading is not catching the big rallies, but restraining the impulse to rush to recover losses after an account drawdown.
Don't let the obsession with recovering losses become the next black swan that crushes your account. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC failed to rebound sideways from the strong trend, which is not a good sign, especially considering how important that level is. The next area of interest is 1200–1225, where a rebound may occur. If the market gives the right confirmation signal, there could be a long opportunity to look for there.
Because a pullback to the main structure after a move of this scale can actually be very healthy, it will reset momentum, establish support where none currently exists, and potentially create a firmer foundation for another major rally afterward. Pullbacks are not always the end of a trend; sometimes they are what allow the trend to continue.
$XRP is testing a micro support zone between $1.32 and $1.49 after a corrective pullback from the September 23 high. The rise from the September 16 low appears to have potential impulsiveness and is preliminarily tracked as Wave 1.
The subsequent Wave 3 pullback looks to be nearing completion as Wave 2, which may prepare for the next wave of Wave 3's rise. The first resistance is near the September 23 high at $1.67, followed by $1.93 and $2.25. #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 #韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, short-term capital heat clearly cooling down
A latest capital snapshot breaks the previous one-sided optimism:
The US Bitcoin spot ETF, after a cumulative net inflow of $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive trading days, has experienced net outflows for two consecutive trading days since September 30, totaling about $173 million;
The Ethereum spot ETF started earlier, with outflows for three consecutive trading days, including a single-day outflow of $55.4 million on October 1 alone.
Previously, there was capital divergence between BTC and ETH, but now it has turned into a coordinated retreat; combined with on-chain indicators, short-term market sentiment is quietly shifting.
Breaking down the three layers of underlying reality:
- Nonfarm payroll benefits realized in advance, institutions choose to lock in profits
Some of the liquidity expectations brought by the nonfarm surprise were actually pre-positioned; after the data release and pulse passed, institutions began to take profits and reduce positions during the emotional window.
The Coinbase report also confirms this: BTC profit-taking recently surged to a yearly high, and spot buying in the high range has started to slow down; it’s not that large funds are exiting entirely, but short-term blind chasing has stopped, entering a phase of “taking profits first and then contracting to observe.”
- From “blindly clustering” to “rebalancing between bulls and bears”
The previous continuous inflows gave the market a strong impression of institutional support; but continuous outflows mean:
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report is the ultimate director of the recent market, with gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin all obediently moving according to its signals.
Currently, the market consensus predicts that employment growth in September will slow down, hiring efforts will noticeably cool, and the impressive August employment data will likely be significantly revised downward. In other words, the previous strong report was inflated, and the real economy is not as robust as it appeared.
If this data disappoints, confirming US economic weakness, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut will surge. Gold at 4146 and Bitcoin at 84557 will likely rally accordingly; however, Brent crude at 101.8 is more conflicted, as the rate cut benefits offset the demand weakness from the slowing economy, leading to a likely choppy and volatile market.
Conversely, if employment data exceeds expectations and is stronger, rate cut expectations will be postponed, and the three major assets will collectively face pressure and decline. Gold will look for support at 4120 and resistance at 4200; crude oil will focus on the 101 level, and a break below could trigger a sharp drop.
Regarding Bitcoin's critical levels, simply put: the first short-term lifeline is between 84200 and 84500. If the Nonfarm report causes a small dip but holds here, bulls can still bounce; if it breaks through directly, the next safety zone is between 82800 and 83200. To push higher, Bitcoin must first overcome the small mountain between 85600 and 86000; only then will it have a chance to reach higher levels.
Nonfarm Payrolls have historically loved to stage reversal traps; expectations are always just expectations, and the market can reverse and trap traders at any time. Don't go heavy on bets before the data drops; patiently wait for the data to land and then trade with the trend to avoid being caught in whipsaws.Under what circumstances do people most want to take action? First, when they see others making money, feeling the fear of missing out; second, after consecutive successes, feeling very confident; third, when suffering heavy losses, desperately wanting to recover. Therefore, it is necessary to stay vigilant whenever encountering these three situations.Good morning, crypto friends, this is Mouse's liquidation quick report
Below is the $SUI 24-hour total network liquidation data.
The total liquidation amount for SUI in 24 hours is: 4,589,200 USD.
Among them
The 24-hour long position liquidation amount is: 4,148,000 USD.
The 24-hour short position liquidation amount is: 441,200 USD. $RIVER Why can't this guy go down? Could a big move be coming? The overall trend still looks bearish. Holding on without moving.
Strong resistance above at $1.25-$1.30, short-term lifeline below at $1.20.
A typical “bulls meat grinder” slow decline! Retail investors are crazily catching falling knives.
The major cycle is fully retreating, no incremental funds, all in vain.
Long-short ratio: retail investors are frenzied, whales are restrained.
OKX retail long-short ratio is as high as 3.67, Binance retail is 2.89. Retail investors are frantically bottom fishing.
Whale side: whale count long-short ratio is 3.53, but whale position long-short ratio is only 1.6848.
$BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $SAND I opened a long position to hedge, and the price took off directly. The hedge position not only prevented losses but also locked in profits tightly.
SAND surged violently again today, breaking through the previous high. I originally held a short position at dawn, thinking it would pull back after the spike, but the market makers showed no mercy and kept pushing it up. Seeing the momentum was off, I immediately opened a long position to hedge. The price kept rising; the short position lost, the long position gained, and my account equity basically stayed the same, preserving all the profits I had made earlier. Without hedging, holding the short position stubbornly would have blown me out, wiping out all profits and even causing losses.
Why is hedging necessary? Because SAND has a history: previously, hackers issued abnormal additional tokens, and the supply is highly controlled by the market makers. The price moves up or down entirely at their whim. If you think it will fall, it rises; if you think it’s peaked, it can still surge. This kind of highly controlled token is definitely not to be stubborn about or hold onto short positions blindly. The long hedge is my insurance against the market makers’ final frenzy.
Now the price is oscillating at a high level, and I will look for a position to close the hedge and take profits. Trading always requires a fallback plan, never betting on one side, only earning within your understanding. After this move, I’ll stop and wait for the supply to be cleaned up before looking for new opportunities. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 @OKX星球 高位横着不代表没故事，衍生品那边其实已经在偷偷换剧本了。 你有没有发现，越是不敢空的位置，越容易先挤掉一批人？ 这两天看 $BTC 和 $ETH 冲高后回落，又横在高位，表面像"涨累了"。但我盯盘时更在意的是另一层：真正疲惫的往往不是价格，而是杠杆结构。大涨之后如果持仓继续堆、资金费率偏热，价格却推不动，那不是简单歇脚，更像在等一次挤压。 先看事实。$BTC、$ETH 快速拉升后回撤，随后高位震荡，能不能横住还没确认。$ZEC 波动更夸张，情绪更容易被来回甩。原文那种"以前敢空，现在牛市不敢"的感觉，其实很典型：现货惜售、合约又拥挤，方向判断被夹住了。 偏多路径是，高位横盘把浮筹和追高杠杆洗掉，资金费率降温，持仓回落，然后现货重新接棒，$BTC 带 $ETH 再试前高，山寨里高波动品种继续吸走短线注意力。 风险路径则是，横着横着变成分配，费率仍热、持仓不降，一次下破触发连环减仓，$ETH 和山寨的 beta 会把回撤放大，尤其像 $ZEC 这种情绪标的，反抽和杀跌都可能很急。 所以我现在交易的不是"涨还是跌"，而是波动阶段本身：谁在被挤出，谁还有耐心。高位越安静，越要留意衍生品有没有先Lance | October 3 SOL Daily Market Analysis $SOL
【Today's Silk Road】
Entry: Pullback to 118.5—118.8, stabilize for long
Stop Loss: Below 118.0
Take Profit: First target 119.5—120.0, second target 120.5—121.0
【Core Conclusion】
SOL sharply dropped from 123.36 to 117.05 early morning, a decline of over 6 points, then quickly rebounded to 119.23. MACD green bars below zero line are shrinking, fast and slow lines are turning up at low levels, indicating short-term need for recovery.
【Trading Details】
I know SOL's temperament well; it falls the hardest but also rebounds the fastest. Chasing shorts on a sharp drop risks being swept by rebounds. It's better to wait for a pullback to 118.5-118.8 to stabilize before going long. If volume breaks below 118.0, abandon long positions immediately. #英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly surged, geopolitical black swan events slammed the market, and the main force completed chip exchange around 85000
$BTC: After the nonfarm payrolls surprise, it surged briefly, but Iran's military action in the Strait of Hormuz quickly reversed sentiment, causing a sharp price drop. Glassnode characterizes this rebound as "speculative and lacking real trading volume support," but QCP Capital points out that this rally was driven by spot funds rather than retail leverage. The selling pressure near 85000 was successfully absorbed by buyers, indicating that the main force completed chip exchange at this level rather than simply unloading.
$ETH: Followed the market's surge and pullback, continuing to consolidate within a range. Without an independent narrative breakthrough, the trend remains dominated by BTC. Lacking its own catalyst, it is difficult to see an independent trend in the short term.
$SOL: Rose 48% in Q3 but still far from its historical high. On-chain tokenized stock holders exceeded 1.2 million, a record high, and RWA fundamentals are solid. Institutional holdings remain locked, but open futures contracts exceeded $7.3 billion, indicating crowded long positions. Fundamentals are improving, but price needs new demand to absorb the crowded longs.
The nonfarm payrolls boost is short-term; geopolitical risks and bond yields are the real judges. BTC completed chip exchange, ETH and others lack independent narratives, SOL has strong fundamentals but crowded longs. Before the direction emerges, avoid heavy positions.