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#200 Yuan Challenge to 1 Million Phase 2 · Day 2
First, a disclosure: yesterday's opening battle blew up.
I used 10x leverage to open ONE, hoping for a good start, but it surged more fiercely than I expected, and my position was directly liquidated. I admit, I lost this trade due to "blind confidence" — I thought it would top out after doubling or tripling, but the reality proved I was too simplistic.
So what did I do? I re-deposited about 250 (counting as 200, with some fluctuation and fees, it’s roughly that amount), officially restarting Phase 2. This time I honestly went back to 2x leverage, no longer gambling on a big move.
Last night ONE rose about 70%, so I entered a short position — entry price 0.0011184, liquidation price set around 0.0036, quite far away. Today it surged up to 62% at one point, now it has pulled back to about 22%. The unrealized loss is $5.83, plus about $1 in funding fees today, totaling a loss of $6.83.
But I’m still holding. I don’t believe it can keep pumping. What is $ONE? Harmony, an older generation public chain, a 2019 project, its story was already told in the last bull market. Sudden sharp pumps like this follow the same pattern as IOST last time — the pump is to unload, not a value rebound. The faster it rises, the more urgent the sell-off; a pullback is just a matter of time.
Let me repeat the rules for Phase 2 for your supervision:
Only short altcoins that rise more than 40% in a day
Position size 20%, add margin with the remaining 80% to push liquidation price far away
Leverage 2x
If the next day’s drop reaches 10% and is profitable, close the position to take profit; if not profitable, keep holding until profit is made
A $6.83 loss isn’t much, but this is the first lesson of Phase 2: don’t gamble on the opening with leverage, win with position sizing and patience.
Let’s discuss in the comments: do you think ONE’s pump isn’t over yet, or is it ready to unload? I’m betting on unloading, time will tell 🤝
I only short altcoins, always 2x, always with stop loss, all position funds fully disclosed. For reference only, not investment advice. #美联储10月再加息概率破55% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 🚨European refineries have started "scrambling for oil"! After a key Saudi oil pipeline was attacked, some European customers may not receive crude oil next month. On the surface, this affects the energy market, but behind the scenes, it could ripple all the way to the Federal Reserve and ultimately impact BTC.🛢️🔥
On September 18, according to foreign media citing insiders, Saudi Aramco has notified at least two European refinery customers that due to an attack on a key oil pipeline leading to the Red Sea, these customers will not be able to receive their crude oil allocations next month as per their long-term contracts. Previously, after a drone attack forced the closure of Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline, important shipping operations in the Red Sea were also affected.
Why does this make European refineries nervous?
Because these customers usually rely on long-term contracts to receive stable monthly supplies, like having a "monthly crude oil pass" in advance, so they don't have to scramble in the market every day. Now that the pipeline is down, the fixed supply for next month suddenly disappears, forcing them to urgently seek alternative crude oil supplies.
Poland's Orlen is a typical example, having issued more than 10 procurement tenders since last Friday to find alternative supplies.
In plain terms: if your household rice delivery, which was fixed every month, suddenly gets canceled for next month, your first reaction is to rush to the market to stockpile rice. When everyone scrambles, prices naturally tend to rise.📈 9.18 Evening Review
The daytime rally was a result of oversold recovery + negative news settling + short squeeze resonance, not a trend reversal.
After the big surge, the evening lacks new positive drivers, combined with increasing selling pressure from previous trapped positions above, the rebound momentum will gradually weaken, possibly entering a high-level consolidation phase.
BTC main operating range: 770-786, first resistance 784-786, second resistance 790-793, first support 773-775, second support 765-767.
ETH main operating range: 2450-2540, first resistance 2520-2540, second resistance 2570-2600, first support 2460-2470, second support 2420-2430.
If BTC breaks above 786 with volume and holds steady in the evening, it indicates stronger-than-expected recovery strength; short positions should exit timely, and adjust the outlook to watch the 790 resistance; if it effectively breaks below 770, it indicates the recovery is over and weakness returns.
No major data in the evening; the market will mainly consolidate technically, avoid frequent operations.
$BTC $ETH Seeing this kind of unrealized profit, it's hard not to feel envious. But the story of this HYPE long position can't be judged by just today's page.
I looked back at old reports from January this year. This large holder, who opened the position at an average price of about $38.67, once had an unrealized loss reaching $26 million and was close to liquidation price. It wasn't a straight upward ride after buying; there were times when it almost couldn't hold on. (鉅亨網)
Looking again at the huge unrealized profit and accumulated funding fees reported in the chart, the phrase "holding on" suddenly doesn't feel so easy.
In hindsight, everyone thinks they could have held if they bought at that time. But if you hide the results, with a large unrealized loss in the account and funding fees still settling, can you really tell if you're sticking to your judgment or just unwilling to admit a mistake? Hyperliquid's funding fees settle hourly, and waiting for the market to recover itself can continuously generate holding costs. (Hyperliquid)
I'm willing to study why he chose HYPE, but I won't assume the risks taken before are all worth copying just because the current result looks good. Looking at just this one address doesn't reveal his full assets, nor can it rule out hedging elsewhere.
The biggest fear is reading about others' profits without learning how to choose targets or manage positions, only learning not to give your losing trades an exit.
Just because he waited and got it back doesn't mean my next trade will definitely come back. #美联储10月再加息概率破55% $HYPE $BTC
BTC hasn't been very prominent lately, not because it lacks market activity, but because short-term funds have been drawn away by ZEC. The volatility there is intense, with quick in-and-out moves and rapid emotion-driven profits, naturally attracting more momentum chasers. BTC, on the other hand, seems to have entered a "grind it out" mode.
The market structure isn't complicated: resistance at 77500 above, support at 75500 below, with roughly a 2000-point range in between. Without a volume breakout, it's likely to keep oscillating within this box. Trend traders might find it boring, short-term traders can play the range, but avoid chasing rallies or panicking on dips.
Don't rush to expect a breakout near 77500, and don't overreact with fear near 75500. What really matters is waiting for a volume-driven directional choice. The worst now is mistaking the consolidation for a one-sided move. In this grinding phase, patience is more important than prediction.The Bank of Japan has finally struck the hammer this time, with the rate hike implemented, and the negative news has officially been laid out on the table.
But what I actually think we should really be wary of is not the arrival of the negative news itself, but whether the market can continue to rise after the negative news has landed.
The most dangerous market conditions are often not those that crash directly, but those that slowly pull up first, continuously heating up sentiment, pulling until everyone starts shouting "We’ve withstood the rate hike, the bull market is still on" — and when you completely let your guard down, that’s when the real risk begins.
Like boiling a frog in warm water, fattening it up before killing. The more comfortable the market feels, the more you need to keep a reserve.🔥#日本长债收益率升至高位 $BTC $ETH $BTC / $ETH / $FET / $ROSE | Four codes, one risk
Long $BTC
Long $ETH
Long $FET
Long $ROSE
AI crypto concepts combined with mainstream coins seem to achieve diversification, but are still constrained by the overall liquidity environment.
Holding more token codes does not equal risk diversification.
Core question: Can risk factors be mutually isolated?
When market beta moves uniformly, position management is far more critical than the number of assets.The most expensive tuition in a bull market is never paid on the day of a crash.
It's paid on the afternoon when you've won three weeks in a row and think "I've got it."
When prices fall, everyone is on edge, but you become cautious, reduce your positions, and review your trades. However, continuous profits blow the fuse in your brain. You start going all in, start leveraging, and begin to see pullbacks as "buying opportunities."
Then one big bearish candle wipes out three years of work.
$BTC Overbought alert triggered! Under pressure for 4 hours, is the rebound an opportunity for short positions?
A reminder: don’t get carried away by consecutive bullish candles.
Although BTC and ETH have rebounded, the upward momentum is already showing signs of fatigue, and the window for gradually positioning short orders is emerging.
🔴 Signal 1: Technical indicators have entered a severe overbought zone
The J values of $BTC and $ETH have broken above 100, indicating an extreme overbought state.
The coin prices are approaching strong 4-hour resistance zones: BTC at 78750, ETH at 2535, where heavy selling pressure accumulates. A spike here is likely a bull trap.
🔴 Signal 2: Retail investors are crowding longs, while major players remain cautious
The ETH long-short ratio has surged to 2.32, with retail investors flocking to go long, creating crowded long positions that can easily trigger cascading liquidations if the trend reverses.
However, funding rates remain near zero, indicating that major capital has not entered. This move is more driven by retail funds.
🔴 Signal 3: Clear divergence between volume and price, unstable upward foundation
Open interest is rising, but price gains are slowing, suggesting shorts are quietly positioning.
Active buy orders are shrinking continuously; a volume-less rally is like a castle in the air, with correction risks accumulating.
My practical plan:
If the price fails to break through the key 4-hour resistance, start scaling into shorts within the resistance zone.
This trade offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, with clear and controllable stop-loss settings, but heavy positions are strictly prohibited; risk management comes first.
When the market is lively, it’s often the start of a harvest.
Don’t blindly chase highs at resistance levels; wait for the bull trap to finish, then calmly position and wait for the correction to materialize. Zcash has started voting today, which I definitely wouldn't miss. 37 proposals. $9.01 million of total request. Until September 29, the decision of ZEC owners has begun. And here I am interested not in the figure of $9 million. I wonder how exactly Zcash decides where to direct the ecosystem's money. This is the third quarter of the Coinholder-Directed Retroactive Grants program — that is, funding for work already done. Among the applications there is everything: from small tools and infrastructure to large requests for protocol development, security, and research. For example,SNDK touched 1652 but didn't break through; chasing this spike now means getting hit.
Yesterday's low was 1507.61, the high touched 1626.58 but didn't break through, closing at 1600.67. Today opened at 1600.67, the high reached 1652.8, the low was 1588.93, current price is about 1637.2. Volume has shrunk.
1652 above remains resistance. If 1588 below breaks again, it's likely to first revisit the 1600 opening level, and only then aggressively test yesterday's 1507 spike.
In the short term, watch if 1637 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as a high-level digestion and don't chase at this price now. For those already holding, watch if 1588 support holds; if it doesn't, consider reducing positions. $SNDK $CORE distinguishes between "BaaS service providers" and "traditional banks," don't be misled by the terms
There is a very important distinction on external networks that the Chinese community rarely explains clearly:
Many news reports say "cooperating with banking infrastructure," but there are two completely different cooperation targets here:
A: BaaS banking service providers
BaaS providers themselves hold banking licenses and BIN numbers, specializing in providing card issuance, accounts, and payment channels for fintech and Web3 projects.
Project parties do not need to obtain their own banking licenses; they can issue cards by renting the service provider's capabilities.
Advantages: relatively fast; Disadvantages: this is a "rented channel," not the project party owning a bank themselves. Many people promote BaaS cooperation as "CORE has a bank now," which is actually inaccurate.
B: Traditional retail/commercial banks
These are the deposit banks everyone is familiar with. Banks embed BTCFi functions into their own mobile banking apps, allowing their own customers to directly use staking, lending, and payments within the bank interface.
This is the true "bank institution landing" that everyone envisions.
This type of cooperation is an order of magnitude more difficult than BaaS.
The current situation is:
The publicly disclosed cooperation is following Mobilum's BaaS path, leaning towards type A.
The goal of business visits to places like Tokyo is to seek cooperation opportunities of type B.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% SKHYNIX pulled up from 1247.76 to 1318.42 yesterday, closing at 1306.6, a decent bullish candle. Today it opened at 1306.6, reached a high of 1341.4 surpassing yesterday's high, and the current price has pulled back to around 1327.
Yesterday's low was 1247.76, the high didn't surpass 1318.42, closing at 1306.6. Today it opened at 1306.6, with a high of 1341.4 and a low of 1305.24, current price roughly 1327. Volume has shrunk: about 140,000 contracts traded yesterday, about 69,000 so far today.
The 1341.4 above is today's resistance; above that is the previous 1369. Below, first watch 1305; if broken, it’s easy to see yesterday's low at 1248.
In the short term, watch if 1327 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as a pullback after a rally, don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 1305 support holds; if it doesn't, consider reducing positions. $SKHYNIX Will interest rate hikes directly kill this crypto bull market?
Let me share my personal view first: it's not that dramatic.
Many people reflexively think "tightening liquidity means the crypto market is doomed" as soon as they hear about rate hikes.
But if you look at BTC's historical trends, you'll find it's not that simple.
The big rallies in 2013 and 2021 both happened in high interest rate or even rate hike environments. Especially in 2021, when there was even balance sheet reduction, BTC still surged wildly.
Why?
Because the real big variables in crypto often aren't just a few percentage points in interest rates, but the industry's own growth and changes in capital scale.
If stocks rise 10% a year and interest rates go from 3% to 5%, capital might hesitate a bit.
But if a market can grow several times or even tenfold in one cycle, do you think capital will completely stop playing just because of an extra 2% interest?
Also, crypto is still much smaller compared to traditional financial markets, so even marginal capital inflows can have a very noticeable impact on prices.
So I prefer to see rate hikes as resistance to the market rather than a switch that turns the bull market on or off.
What really determines whether the bull market continues are incremental capital, industry growth, and the market's own cycle.
Don't get scared off just by seeing the words "interest rate hike".
$BTC $ETH $ZEC I feel like I've somewhat interpreted the current situation of ZEC. In the short term, when BTC weakens, liquidity gathers into ZEC, and major funds support the bottom. At this time, if BTC falls, ZEC doesn't; if BTC slightly rebounds, ZEC surges. Meanwhile, short liquidations and stop losses push the price even higher. When BTC strengthens, the situation reverses: liquidity flows back to BTC, profit-taking sells off, buyers wait for a pullback, and long liquidations and stop losses cause the price to keep falling. When BTC rises, ZEC doesn't follow; when BTC fluctuates slightly, ZEC falls. I can only say that in the short term, the outlook is bearish, but in the medium term, it's bullish. At the same time, buying pressure is seriously excessive. What the bulls need to do is wait; good trades come to those who wait.Taking partial profits on a trade first, then letting the remaining position continue to rise, feels comfortable in hindsight.
Locking in profits first and then letting the profits run is not necessarily smarter than exiting all at once. The question is, why is the remaining position still worth holding?
If you continue to hold just because you've already made a lot and your cost basis is lower, the risk still exists; it's just that the psychological pressure is reduced.
Holding onto a good trade is indeed difficult. The hard part is distinguishing whether you are following your original judgment or just reluctant to sell because the unrealized gains are growing.$EDGE perpetual 20x long position, entered at 0.3613, target 0.5922, floating profit +1278.16%. Before opening the position, I observed extremely negative funding rates, indicating excessive short crowding.
I lightly reversed to long at 0.3613 with a stop loss at 0.34. The rebound precisely triggered the shorts' stop loss, creating a short squeeze spiral surge.
Strictly controlling position size to 5% at 20x leverage. Now moving the stop loss to protect profits. Extreme negative funding rates easily cause short squeezes; light position reversal with loss. $ONE $UNI #美联储10月再加息概率破55% CATI Token Analysis
Market Trend
CATI is the ecological token of Catizen, a popular TG mini-game on the TON chain, and a core asset in the Telegram GameFi sector. The token price is highly correlated with the popularity of the mini-game segment, surging impulsively when the sector heats up. However, continuous unlocking by the team, investors, and quarterly airdrops creates long-term selling pressure; after the hype fades, the price experiences significant corrections with strong volatility.
Key Levels
Resistance: 0.075
Support: 0.054, break below targets 0.045
Bullish Logic
1. Rotation of hotspots in the TON ecosystem TG mini-game sector, with a large user base and continuous release of new mini-games in the ecosystem;
2. 50% of the platform game center's revenue is used to buy back and burn tokens, creating deflationary expectations;
3. Advancement of TON Layer2, with CATI as the ecosystem Gas token, expanding token use cases;
4. Airdrops and seasonal events continuously attract market attention. Discussing the current market: The tug-of-war between the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the Treasury's repurchase of U.S. debt is influencing gold, U.S. stocks, and crypto trends.
Many equate the Treasury's repurchase of U.S. debt with QE, but they are actually different. The Treasury mainly repurchases long-term old debt with poor liquidity, replacing long-term debt with short-term debt to ease the pressure of long-term debt sell-offs, prevent runaway long-term yields, and stabilize the bond market, but it does not directly print money or expand the balance sheet. However, the market views this as a passive backstop for the U.S.'s high fiscal deficit, increasing concerns about the dollar's long-term creditworthiness, which is the core logic behind the recent strength in gold.
On one hand, the Treasury supports long-term interest rates; on the other, the Fed's rate hikes raise short-term rates to combat inflation, creating a clear policy tug-of-war. Rate hikes increase funding costs, theoretically suppressing gold and crypto, while raising discount rates, which is negative for high-valuation growth stocks in the U.S. market; meanwhile, repurchases stabilize long-term bond yields, preventing liquidity crashes and providing a buffer for the market.
Recently, gold no longer solely reflects real interest rates; debt and fiscal risks have become important pricing factors. U.S. stocks are showing divergent fluctuations, with leading stocks demonstrating stronger resilience while thematic small caps face pressure. Crypto, combining risk asset and digital gold attributes, trades in line with gold and dollar credit logic but is highly volatile, with sharp pullbacks during liquidity tightening.
Going forward, the market will swing between two main themes: inflation rebound and Fed hawkishness, which tend to cause asset pullbacks; and ongoing U.S. debt supply pressure and rising fiscal concerns, which favor gold and crypto. However, repurchases are only a short-term buffer and do not solve the root cause of high deficits. There is no guaranteed profit opportunity in the market, so risk management is essential. About 35,000 ETH withdrawn from Binance last night was not used to chase longs but was first put into short position margin.
Lookonchain/EmberCN monitoring: The address associated with "Garrett Jin" sold all approximately 35,000 ETH (about $87.5 million) withdrawn last night at around $2,500 each, adding margin to the largest ZEC short position on Hyperliquid — raising the liquidation price from about 2631 to about 4738.
The same entity's ZEC short position has a nominal value of about $56 million, an average opening price of about 665.85, and an unrealized loss still around $30 million; TradingBeats reports the short was still holding when ZEC approached 1500. Lookonchain also states it simultaneously opened about 3x BTC longs.
Adding margin ≠ closing the short position, selling ETH ≠ bearish on Ethereum; on-chain tags are still monitoring indicators, not trading calls. OKX market prices: ZEC about 1461 (24h about +7%), ETH about 2505, BTC about 78,000. $ZEC $ETH $BTC Oil easing from recent highs has not translated into cheaper US diesel, with AAA's national average near a record $6.40 a gallon. Low inventories, constrained refining capacity and tight global supply suggest diesel could remain an inflation pressure point. If refiners divert more output toward diesel, gasoline relief may weaken too, keeping bonds and other risk assets sensitive to fuel data.
#DieselHitsRecordHigh $EDGE I didn't make much judgment, just held a short position for a while, didn't expect it to really show some respect.
During the intraday bottoming, EDGE's rebound was weak, volume didn't keep up, I advised not to chase, the bearish structure was still intact.
From 0.6584 to 0.5928, +198.35%, nailed it, the earlier part was really dragging, but the outcome is really sweet. Took profits first, closed 80%, kept 20% at cost price for protection.
The market specializes in punishing all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak, wait for the next signal before moving.
$BTC $ZEC $BTC #What will the future of Bitcoin be like# Let's talk about the future of Bitcoin; it has really reached a very delicate point now.
Morgan Stanley analysts mentioned the four-year cycle of crypto assets. The previous bear market, also known as the "crypto winter," usually lasted 12 to 14 months. Now, September marks 11 months since the previous peak and 17 months until the next halving, exactly fitting into the historical "crypto spring" start window. Additionally, the veteran exchange BitMEX officially announced its shutdown in September, and several of the six major cycle signals have already appeared.
It has long ceased to be just "digital gold." The Lightning Network's monthly transaction volume exceeded $1 billion last November, enabling instant, low-cost micropayments. Along with protocols like Rootstock adding smart contract capabilities, Bitcoin has transformed from a dormant asset meant only for holding into an active collateral that can participate in DeFi. However, global regulatory competition and the trial-and-error risks of technological iteration remain significant hurdles ahead. The future is far from a simple bull-or-bear scenario.$CNPY perpetual 20x long position, entered at 0.306, 0.5553, floating profit +1643.13%. Before opening the position, I observed extremely negative funding rates, indicating an overly crowded and frenzied short side.
I lightly reversed to a long position at 0.306 with a stop loss at 0.28. The rebound precisely triggered the short sellers' stop loss, creating a short squeeze spiral surge.
Strictly controlling 5% position at 20x leverage. Now moving the stop loss to protect profits. Extreme negative funding rates easily cause short squeezes, light position reversal with loss. $ONE $UNI #美联储10月再加息概率破55% $BTC This is exactly what I wanted to see. After a short deviation below the range, BTC has now reclaimed the lows with a strong move back to the upside. I was expecting slightly more downside before this happened, but I’m not going to complain about strength showing up earlier than I thought. The important part is that the breakdown failed. Price traded below the range, flushed out more longs, and has now moved back above a level that previously acted as strong support. At the same time, a majo$G 4H Signal
This is no longer a normal trending move. $G has entered price discovery with two large expansion candles and rapidly increasing volume.
The direction is bullish, but buying after a 70% daily move leaves very little room for error. The cleaner opportunity is a retest of the breakout base around 0.00760.
Entry: 0.00750–0.00770
TP1: 0.00857
TP2: 0.00920
TP3: 0.01000
SL: 0.00685
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules 四天，ZEC 从 1040 拉到 1538，涨了 48%。然后一天，掉回 1459。 现在 15 分钟图上，KDJ 死叉、J 值打到 5；1 小时图上，价格跌破了中轨 1481。想做空的人有理由兴奋——更狠的是，做空的队伍已经排起来了：多空比（人数口径）只剩 0.33–0.42，空头人数是多头的三倍；近 7 天费率转负，最低干到 -0.04%，空头在真金白银付费扛单。 这时候，我得把另一笔账摆出来。 09/14 那次，价格从 1040 被拉到 1538，+48%，四天。那不是基本面慢慢涨出来的，那是把空头一遍一遍轧出去轧出来的。现在空头拥挤度比当时还高，费率已经为负——每多扛一天，成本多付一天。 所以我的看法是：ZEC 这儿做空，不是"硬道理"，是"条件单"。 三个条件，缺一个都不动手： 1、反弹到 1481–1538 这个区间被明确拒掉，且持仓量继续升——空头剧本才算顺，第一目标 1341（24小时低点），再看 1200 2、放量收复 1538——剧本作废，那是又一次轧空，别恋战 3、现价 1459 直接追空，等于在拥挤的队伍里插队，大概率是给别人送费率。等反弹被拒，再动手 最后说句$PUMP
Market Attributes: Primarily sentiment-driven, fundamentals are weak. The platform is a tool for launching meme coins; PUMP itself lacks strong business cash flow support. Once the hype fades, the decline is very rapid.
Liquidation Mode: High-frequency bidirectional liquidations. During the uptrend, it sweeps out short positions; when the hype dissipates, whales dump and instantly break through long positions.
Liquidation Risk Level: Extremely high
BTC: Low volatility
ETH: Medium volatility
UNI: Medium-high volatility (DeFi leader)
NEAR: Medium-high volatility (AI public chain theme)
ZEC: High volatility (small-cap privacy narrative)
PUMP: Extremely high volatility (Meme platform token, sentiment-driven)
ONE: Extremely high volatility (purely oversold junk public chain)
Core Risk Points
Narrative depends on Meme sector hype. Once the meme coin market cools down, funds quickly withdraw, and PUMP has no fundamental support.
Competitive Pressure: Similar launch platforms like Letsbonk continuously divert users; shturl.c's monopoly position is declining.
Token Unlock Selling Pressure: Early private sale tokens are expected to be sold off.
Regulatory Risk: Meme launch platforms are prone to being deemed by regulators as assisting in issuing unregistered tokens, posing negative policy risks.ZEC surged to 1536 but didn't break through; this roller coaster is really tough for ordinary people to handle.
Yesterday's low was 1234, the highest touched 1491.99 but didn't break through, closing at 1480.33. Today opened at 1480.49, the highest at 1536.41, the lowest at 1442.67, current price around 1455.5. Volume has shrunk.
1536 above is still resistance. If 1442 below breaks again, it’s likely to first revisit the 1480 opening level, and only then aggressively test around yesterday's 1234.
In the short term, watch if 1455 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as a high-level digestion and don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 1442 support holds; if it doesn't, consider reducing positions. $ZEC In the past, people often understood stablecoin growth as a signal of a new round of liquidity in Crypto, but now this logic may be failing. The latest data shows that the total market cap of stablecoins is about $305 billion, but there has been basically no growth in the past 7 days; meanwhile, 21 large banks have already advanced a joint US dollar stablecoin plan. Stablecoins are increasingly resembling traditional financial payment infrastructure, rather than just "ammunition" for DeFi. My view is: stablecoin adoption ≠ public chain token value capture. If in the future stablecoins are mainly used by banks, payment companies, and enterprises for cross-border settlement, then the biggest winners may be issuers, payment networks, and infrastructure with real commercial traffic, rather than necessarily all L1/L2 tokens. More notably, Glassnode recently pointed out that new demand in the BTC market is slowing, with ETF inflows, stablecoin growth, and corporate buying all stagnating; meanwhile, CoinShares believes regulatory progress is stalled and a more hawkish Federal Reserve is further suppressing risk assets. But this judgment could also be wrong. If stablecoins eventually form large-scale on-chain settlement and generate sustained demand for trading, staking, lending, and liquidity, then public chains with deep liquidity and developer ecosystems may still become the largest value-bearing layers. 👇 COMMUNITY Do you think the core of the next round of Crypto growth will be "more money entering on-chain," or "on-chain starting to generate real economic activity"? Account Position Divergence Radar
$WLD: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.060, top positions long-short ratio is 0.922; the entire market accounts long-short ratio is 2.030; price increased by 0.70%, position amount changed by +1.42%. The overall market account structure is biased towards long positions, which differs from the top position bias.
$TRX: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.525, top positions long-short ratio is 0.938; the entire market accounts long-short ratio is 0.760; price increased by 0.04%, position amount changed by -0.13%.
$CNPY: The number of top accounts is biased towards short positions, but the position distribution is biased towards long positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.934, top positions long-short ratio is 1.117; the entire market accounts long-short ratio is 0.698; price increased by 0.40%, position amount changed by -0.25%. The overall market account structure is biased towards short positions, which differs from the top position bias.
WLD, TRX, CNPY: The side with the dominant number of accounts is opposite to the side with the dominant positions, indicating a divergence between account structure and position distribution.SEC Late Night Bombshell! "Innovation Exemption" 5-Year Sandbox: Tokenized Stocks Officially On-Chain
📜 Core Rules (Released September 17)
Name: Innovation Exemption
Entity: Tokenized Securities Venues (TSV)
Duration: 5-year regulatory exemption period
Content: Allows TSVs to trade tokenized NMS stocks on public blockchains via permissioned AMM liquidity pools
TSV Exemption: Not subject to the "exchange" definition under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Liquidity Provider Exemption: Not subject to the "dealer" definition
Still must comply with: all anti-fraud and anti-manipulation regulations
🔑 Key Conditions
1. One share, one vote: Tokenized stock holders enjoy all shareholder rights including dividends and voting
2. Issuer veto rights: Third-party tokenized stocks must notify the issuer, who can object within 30 days
3. Smart contracts: Must be public, auditable, and deployed on a public blockchain
4. Quota limits: Caps on underlying quantity and trading volume
🧠 What does this mean?
This is a milestone in the RWA space: real US stock tokenized trading moves from a gray area into a compliant sandbox
Directly benefits platforms like Coinbase, Kraken, and exchange tokens planning tokenized stocks
Chairman Atkins previously said "SEC will push forward regardless of legislation," and this is the action
The 5-year observation period is enough for the industry to validate the model $SNDK The SEC suddenly gave the green light to on-chain stocks, and UNI surged from 3.3 to 8.8 in a month, increasing by one and a half times, with the daily RSI exploding to 85 — but just now, it has pulled back from the high. If you chase at this position, are you catching the tail of the fish or grabbing a flying knife?
Robinhood Chain is already the largest single-chain fee source for Uniswap, Arthur Hayes' address recently bought 280,000 UNI, and shorts suffered millions of dollars in liquidations in a single day.
This is not a sentiment-driven pump; it’s a triple kill of regulatory narrative + real income + short squeeze.
You’ve caught the head and body of the fish; now if you grab the tail, be careful not to get stabbed and stuck.
UNI went from 3.3 to 8.8; those who should have profited already have. If you rush in now, you’re betting on the triple positive factors of “SEC exemption implementation + ETF expectations + accelerated burn” continuing to stack.
Is it possible? Yes. But the cost-performance ratio has clearly worsened.
The most expensive four words in crypto: "This time it's different."
The second most expensive: "I’ve been bullish for a long time, just didn’t buy."
8.8 is not the top, but it’s not a good entry point either. Wait for a pullback, wait for stabilization, wait for the market to digest the overbought condition.
The trend is still there, but your cost determines whether you can hold on.
At 8.8, do you dare to chase?$BTC On the weekly chart this wave, I am still bullish.
This week started with a break below the Weekly Open, then hit the lower target, but quickly recovered, and now the price is back above the Open.
Historically, about 95% of the bullish weeks have already seen the weekly low at this stage; only about 45% have formed the high point, with more highs appearing in the latter half of the week.
Now the price has returned to the bullish range.
As long as the weekly open holds, I will continue to watch 80K → 83.3K.
If it breaks below the Open again, the structure needs to be reassessed.
The current focus is simple: has the low already appeared, and is the high still ahead? 📈 I. Core Conclusions US Stocks: Deep V-shaped Rebound with Rate Hike Negative Heads Exhausted. The Fed's first rate hike in three years triggered sell-offs, but was then recovered by three factors: falling US Treasury yields, falling oil prices, and strong tech stocks, resulting in a classic "sell first, then pull" pattern. Key Divergences Remain in Tech Stocks: Market Rebound but Severe Internal Divergence—Nvidia and Oracle weaken, Netflix and Tesla strengthen, capital rotating between AI hardware and software/consumption. Crypto: Macro desensitization and structural differentiation. BTC firmly holds the key support at $76K, but negative factors weaken after rate hikes; But the Altcoin Season Index is only 43 (Bitcoin Season), with funds still concentrated in BTC, lacking broad rally. Common theme: The AI capital spending cycle is the greatest common denominator between US stocks and crypto, and the core variable determining future risk appetite. 2. US Stock Hot Topics (Close 9/17 → Report 9/18) Index Performance (Divergent Scores, Consensus) Dow: Leading gains around +0.54%~0.6% (+316 points) S&P 500 / Nasdaq: Rebound but Mixed Performance, Some reports say the Nasdaq closed slightly lower, the S&P nearly flat, and some say all three major indices rose—overall showing a divergence of "Dow strong, tech index weak." Core drivers: US Treasury yields fell (previously 10Y hit 5%) + falling oil prices + strong key tech stocks easing valuation pressure from rate hikes. Tech/Hot Stocks (Clear Divergence) Leading the declines: Nvidia -2%+, Oracle$CRCL current price 86.94, 24h up 4.42%, pre-market stock rebound 5.77% but token's rise is insufficient, news still affected by Mizuho downgrade aftermath, I am bearish, breaking down several layers below.
📰 News: Mizuho downgrade points out revenue model risks, after overnight stock sell-off, pre-market is just a technical rebound, negative factors not fully digested.
🔧 Technical: Daily RSI14 still weak at 30.4, MACD death cross green bars shortening, price lost MA7 and MA25 with 7/25 bearish alignment, rebound failing to hold above short-term moving averages is considered weak.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens only +0.75%, US stock pre-market sentiment is moderate, no sufficient beta to pull CRCL out of weak structure.
🎯 Today's view: I am bearish, mainly due to negative news combined with daily bearish structure, token premium narrowing indicates insufficient willingness to chase highs.
📊 Token 86.94 (+4.42%) | Stock 85.09 (+5.77%) | Premium +2.17% | US stock pre-market
💎 Summary: Next, watch for digestion of negative news and whether short-term moving averages can be reclaimed; if not stable, weakness will continue.
#USStockTokens
#StablecoinSector
#CRCLOutlook $CORE is a low-liquidity token, inherently prone to "Black Friday" effects
Why do people rarely talk about Black Friday for BTC and ETH, but the CORE community always discusses it?
A very practical reason: the difference in liquidity depth.
Top tokens have deep buy and sell order books, making it hard for a single large order to crash the price. But small tokens are different; sparse order books mean a slightly large sell order can cause a sharp dip of several points; a slightly large buy order can quickly pump the price.
Low liquidity brings several characteristics:
✅ Positive news can quickly trigger a sharp rise with huge elasticity;
⚠️ Panic can cause a rapid, unresisted drop;
⚠️ Before weekends, many market makers and short-term traders reduce positions, further shrinking market liquidity and amplifying volatility.
So "Black Friday" for CORE is not purely superstition. It doesn't mean a crash happens every Friday, but that the volatility switch is more easily triggered on Fridays.
This doesn't mean you can't trade it, but the cost of trading is higher: stop losses are easily triggered by spikes, and direction can be easily swayed by short-term sentiment.
If you trade it on Fridays, you must accept that the market doesn't always behave rationally; it can have violent spikes up and down without any major news.
Liquidity is a double-edged sword, offering the high returns you imagine but also the unexpected high risks. #OKX百万规划师 $UNI
Liquidity: Very good, far superior to ZEC, NEAR, ONE; only behind BTC and ETH. The market cap belongs to mid-to-large cap DeFi blue chips, making extreme scenarios of doubling in a few minutes unlikely, but daily volatility of 20~30% is normal.
Liquidation mode: News-driven short squeeze. When positive news emerges, it quickly spikes upward, eating up accumulated short positions; after the positive news is realized, profit-taking concentrates on selling, making long positions at high levels prone to liquidation.
Liquidation risk level: Medium to high
BTC: Low volatility
ETH: Medium volatility
UNI: Medium-high volatility (DeFi leader, news-driven, ample liquidity)
NEAR: Medium-high volatility (AI public chain theme)
ZEC: High volatility (small-cap privacy narrative)
ONE: Extremely high volatility (pure speculative oversold junk coin)
Core risk points
Positive news priced in advance: This round of rise mainly speculates on fee switch expectations; once proposals are implemented and burning truly begins, it is easy to "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
High competitive pressure: DEXs like Aerodrome and PancakeSwap continuously compete for trading volume; if fee income falls short of expectations, the narrative will be disproved.
SEC regulatory risk: DeFi tokens also face regulatory uncertainty; once regulatory negative news hits, prices will quickly retract.
After a short-term surge, profit-taking is huge; once funds flee, the correction will be strong, and leveraged long positions are easily trapped. The market moved in the evening session, BTC pulled up to 78100, up 2.4%, ETH reclaimed above 2500, and SOL surged nearly 6% to 105. It's only been two days since the FOMC rate hike was implemented, and the market is following the script of 'bad news already priced in.' The 75500 bottom is basically welded in, and now the bulls are testing the 80,000 level. Many people can't sit still at this point and ask whether to chase. To be honest: my buy orders at 75500 and 72500 didn't get filled, the price went straight up, but I’m not chasing. The reason is simple: 78000 is just over 2000 points away from the previous high near 80,000, so chasing here has a poor risk-reward ratio. If it rallies and then falls back, you’re just standing guard. Not getting filled on buy orders doesn’t lose money; chasing high and getting stuck is the real pain. Operationally: keep the buy orders hanging, a pullback is the opportunity to get on board, and only talk about the next step once it truly holds above 80,000; ETH is already at 30% target position, no change; SOL rebounding to 105 is actually good, planning to sell 14 coins next Monday at a better price, keeping the allocation below 15% unchanged. The biggest lesson from this rebound: a level that bad news can’t push down is true support. But don’t shout $100,000 just because it’s up for two days; whether there will be a rate hike in December is still uncertain. In a choppy market, those with orders get the meat, those chasing the rally get the bill.Hyperliquid co-founder Jeff.hl posted on the X platform that most tech giants in the 2000s built infrastructure and products as tightly coupled wholes. Amazon was forward-looking, splitting AWS into an independent API layer, with Amazon's retail business as AWS's first customer. Today, the profits generated by AWS exceed the sum of all other Amazon businesses. Hyperliquid has adopted this design philosophy. Supporting all financial activities requires carefully designed, open financial foundational components. Each component follows the Unix design principle: do one thing and do it exceptionally well. Developers can freely combine these underlying modules to build innovative applications. HyperCore lending is an implementation of this philosophy. Other platforms' portfolio margin lending models generally price account collateral at market value and set LTV deductions to generate borrowed assets, but there is no clear lender. This approach is simple to implement but loses composability. Hyperliquid builds the lending protocol on the HyperCore foundation. Every borrowed asset comes from a fund provider, with risk isolated within the lending component and not spreading to the entire platform. The HyperCore portfolio margin system acts as an orchestration layer, combining and invoking the lending module with other foundational components such as perpetual contracts, spot trading, and event trading. This modular decomposition brings multiple advantages: 1. The manually initiated lending released this time is not a new independent feature but an extension of the underlying foundational components. Lending users can immediately access supply liquidity exceeding $400 million and growing. 2. Users employing portfolio margin can earn interest on idle stablecoin collateral. This is not a separately developed new feature but a natural result of combining the trading and lending modules. 3. Perpetual contracts and lending margin are independent of each other, making system risk easier to assess and control.On-Chain Position Perspective: Distinguishing Between Large Holder Accumulation and Short-Term Speculation
Besides the candlestick chart, changes in on-chain large holder positions can help assess the market quality.
Short-term Speculation: On-chain addresses quickly enter and exit, chips transfer rapidly, large holders do not continuously hoard coins, so the market rises and falls quickly.
Genuine Capital Deployment: Large holder addresses continuously net buy, chips accumulate long-term, not short-term flipping, resulting in stronger market continuity. On-chain data serves as an auxiliary and should not be used independently from the chart for decision-making.
Key Market Observations:
🟠 Mainstream Coins: Changes in chip accumulation by whale addresses
🔵 Popular Small Coins: Whether chips are accumulating or circulating rapidly
⚠️ Market Phenomenon: A single large holder's one-time purchase does not equal institutional long-term deployment; continuity must be observed.
$BTC $ETH $ONE
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 On-chain data of $ZEC shows that the largest ZEC short currently holds 37,760 ZEC short positions, with unrealized losses exceeding $26 million, getting closer to the liquidation price. To protect the short position, this whale urgently transferred out 35,001 ETH from Binance, equivalent to $85 million, to the exchange as margin to prevent forced liquidation.
Even big holders can stumble; in the main uptrend of the privacy sector, going against the trend to top out, even with huge capital, cannot withstand the continuous push of thematic market moves. To endure the losses, they had to use ETH assets to add margin, continuously injecting funds to stubbornly hold the trend.
This incident also confirms the previous trading lesson: do not subjectively guess the top. Once a trend forms, having more capital does not reverse the market. Under high leverage, unrealized losses will continuously consume margin, and even whales face the risk of liquidation at any time.
The market will not show mercy because of position size; trading against the trend, no matter how large the capital, will fall into a passive state. In the face of trends, respecting the market is always paramount. Has Hyperliquid evolved again? Spot trading, contracts, lending, prediction markets—the core DeFi functions are now gathered on a single chain 🔥
On September 18, Hypercore currently supports Perps perpetual contracts, spot trading, prediction markets, lending, and vaults as core services, with trading assets covering crypto assets and some RWAs.
Simply put, previously different DeFi services were often scattered across different protocols and chains, but Hyperliquid is trying to consolidate these functions into a unified financial infrastructure. Users can complete trading, lending, and earning yields within the same ecosystem, making capital and liquidity easier to circulate internally.
What’s more noteworthy is that Ryan Watkins believes these services are linking with the value capture mechanism of the HYPE token. In other words, Hyperliquid aims to be more than just a "contract trading platform"—it is gradually integrating spot, derivatives, lending, prediction markets, and other financial functions.
Of course, whether HYPE can enter a larger market cap tier in the future still depends on user scale, trading volume, revenue, and whether the ecosystem can sustain growth.
**If a single chain truly integrates more and more financial scenarios into one ecosystem, DeFi gameplay might be shifting from "single protocol competition" to "comprehensive financial platform competition."** Follow me to continue breaking down the logic behind HYPE, DeFi, and on-chain capital in plain language. $HYPE This time, the SEC is not "opening the floodgates," but rather installing the gates first.
The SEC has introduced an "innovation exemption," allowing qualified Tokenized Securities Venues to trade tokenized U.S. stocks on public blockchains through permissioned AMMs/liquidity pools for up to five years, granting temporary exemptions to market-making liquidity providers. The market interprets this as mostly positive, with core benefits for RWA, tokenized stocks, and compliant on-chain trading infrastructure narratives; it does not directly correspond to any single crypto token.
However, the restrictions are clearly stated: it only covers real tokenized stocks with full shareholder rights such as dividends and voting, excluding synthetic products that merely track prices. Issuers also have a 30-day veto right. The two most direct points to watch next are: first, which compliant platforms will launch first; second, whether night trading/all-day trading can truly take off. Are you more focused on "compliant platforms launching first" or "whether real trading volume can grow"?
Source: Decrypt📊 Today's Key News Overview
· US Stock Market: Futures for the three major indices are all up pre-market (Nasdaq futures +0.36%), with overnight strong rebounds in tech stocks and the semiconductor sector (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +3.14%, Intel +7.67%). However, today coincides with the quarterly "Triple Witching Day," with over $2 trillion in nominal options expiring simultaneously. Historical data shows that since 2012, the S&P 500 has closed lower on 12 out of 14 Triple Witching Days.
· SanDisk: Soared 6.21% overnight to close at $1614.39, continuing to rise slightly after hours and pre-market to the $1634-$1638 range. However, today it disclosed that director David Goeckeler plans to sell 33,841 shares, valued at approximately $51.43 million, and has sold another 33,838 shares in the past three months.
📉 US Stock Market: Triple Witching Day dominates, higher probability of downward volatility
Supporting factors: The drivers behind last night's rebound (oil price decline, US Treasury yields falling below the critical 5% threshold, strong employment data) continue pre-market today. The decline in Treasury yields eases the discounting pressure on high-valuation growth stocks, providing some bottom support for the market.
Core suppressing factor — Triple Witching Day: Today is the quarterly options expiration day, with stock index futures, stock index options, and single stock options all expiring simultaneously. Bluekurtic's historical statistics provide a fairly consistent signal: since 2012, the S&P 500 has closed lower on 12 of 14 Triple Witching Days.
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ If you can't hold spot positions, you can put them in a cold wallet and delete the app. But with contracts, even if you delete it, you'll reinstall it. Because the mindset is already off—you always feel the next market wave is coming, and this time you'll definitely catch it.
Losing U is a small matter; what you lose is your patience for a normal life. When you start to resent your salary being too slow, saving money too stupid, and everything that can't double overnight as meaningless, no matter if Bitcoin rises to 100,000 or 200,000, you've already lost.
Those who can stop are not because they've earned enough, but because at some moment they realize one thing: opening another position won't make yesterday better, it will only risk tomorrow too.
$BTC Brothers, I'm here to pay tuition again. This time it's a big tuition fee.
Last night I woke up in the middle of the night to check the market, my hands were shaking. I don't even dare to look at the account screenshot a second time. A $ZEC short opened at 909.48, now down to 1488.14. Floating loss -190.88%, 115.73U gone up in smoke. Available margin: 0 USDT. Liquidation price 1868.
This is all I have left.
Do you know what's going on with $ZEC now? This thing is not a coin, it's a rocket. BTC is falling, ETH is falling, the whole market is green like spring. But it’s alone, pole vaulting, stubborn as hell, completely ignoring gravity. What was I thinking back then? Why did I short this monster coin? I always thought "it’s gone up so much, it should pull back," but every time it slaps me hard with reality.
Honestly, after calming down and reviewing, I don’t feel this loss is undeserved.
The core of this $ZEC rally isn’t "it’s gone up too much and should fall," but a textbook short squeeze. The Grayscale Zcash spot ETF launched at the end of August, opening a compliant institutional entry channel, attracting over $34.4 million net inflow after launch. The SEC’s investigation into the Zcash Foundation officially ended, clearing regulatory clouds. More importantly, after $ZEC broke $1000, it triggered a chain of short liquidations—about $79.5 million in short positions were liquidated in just two trading sessions. Shorts were forced to buy to cover, pushing prices higher, triggering the next wave of liquidations, creating a fully self-reinforcing positive feedback loop.
Simply put, every liquidation is a market buy order, and retail shorts like me are just fuel in this.
Do you know there are whales shorting like me? One whale opened a 10x short at $1245 for 8120 $ZEC, position worth $10.11 million. Three hours later, ZEC rose to $1390, fully liquidated, losing $890,000. Even more brutal, a trader held 12,285 $ZEC shorts worth $18.31 million, floating loss $7.66 million, liquidation price $1550. This person had 26 consecutive winning trades with an 89% win rate, earning over $9 million, but lost it all on this trade.
Even pros got buried, what chance do I have as a small retail trader waking up at night to check the market against a short squeeze?
Now $ZEC has broken $1500, up 18% in 24 hours, with a yearly gain over 2500%. F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun said this rally is a "narrative-driven short squeeze," not fundamental improvement. But what good is knowing that? Shorts aren’t dead yet, the squeeze won’t stop. As long as short positions remain, every rally removes a layer of selling pressure.
I really have no bullets left. No adding to position, no closing, whatever happens, happens. The liquidation price at 1868 is hanging there, let the market makers decide if they want to give me a needle.
But I have to say a few things to the sisters still in the game:
First, don’t short $ZEC. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has long publicly warned that the risk of shorting $ZEC is beyond what most can bear. Those bullish on privacy might just miss profits, but those shorting could go broke.
Second, don’t stubbornly hold against the trend. I kept telling myself "it’s fallen so much, it should rebound," but every time the market taught me a lesson. In a short squeeze, price has nothing to do with "fair value," it’s about whether you can hold on.
Third, stop losses are always more important than pride. My 115U isn’t much, but it’s my hard-saved private money. If your position is bigger than mine, you must treat stop loss as discipline.
Finally, about the overall market. $BTC and $ETH have been falling recently, and the total crypto market cap has shrunk a lot since the start of the year. The probability of a Fed rate hike in October has surged to 55.4%, with only 44.6% chance of holding rates steady. The rising rate hike expectation is pressure on risk assets, and market sentiment is poor. But $ZEC standing out in this environment shows this isn’t a broad rally, it’s a precise squeeze.
This time I’ve completely accepted my fate. Not blaming the market, just myself for shorting a coin that’s being squeezed.
Sisters, take this as a warning.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% $NEAR
This round of rally is mainly due to a chain of short liquidations, with about 2.32 million USD worth of short positions liquidated in 24 hours. A large number of low-position shorts were stopped out upwards, and forced short buy orders further pushed the price up.
Liquidity: Moderate, much better than ONE, but far weaker than BTC/ETH; stronger than ZEC. Daily volatility of 15~20% is normal, with sharp spikes causing strong impact.
Market attributes: A second-tier public chain with fundamental narratives, not a pure junk coin, but a thematic speculation, not a blue chip.
Liquidation risk level: Medium-high
BTC: Low volatility
ETH: Moderate volatility
NEAR: Medium-high volatility (AI thematic rotation, news-driven)
ZEC: High volatility (small-cap privacy narrative)
ONE: Extremely high volatility (pure speculative oversold junk coin)
Key differences: ZEC is a privacy ETF institutional narrative; NEAR is an AI Agent public chain narrative; ONE has no fundamentals, purely capital-driven pulses.
Core risk points
This rally is largely driven by speculative expectations of NEAR@3.33 rewards. If the price fails to hold above 3.33, the positive expectations will collapse, profit-taking will concentrate, and a rapid correction will occur.
The AI sector rotates quickly, with funds switching to other AI targets at any time, making it easy to see sharp rises followed by rapid pullbacks. Leveraged long positions at high levels are easily liquidated.
Token inflation and staking unlocks continuously pose long-term selling pressure.🔷 Limits: LINK and SOL in action
• LINK broke the spike at 11.69 and MA99 4h; above 12.17/12.80
• SOL: spot CVD plus (+1.9M) — Alpenglow is buying
🎣 Entries:
• $LINK pullback: 11.50-11.70 → 12.17/12.80, stop 11.25
• LINK breakout: 4h above 12.20 → 12.80/13.68, stop 11.70
• $SOL pullback: 102.0-103.5 → 108.9/110.6, stop 99.80
• SOL breakout: 4h above 106.70 → 110.6/116.0, stop 104.0
• Breakdown: 4h below 11.25/100.40
⚠️ Both +6% for the day with negative CVD: squeeze, longs half as much
❓ Breakout of LINK or spot SOL?👇 Aftershocks of the rate hike have not subsided! Expectations for a second tightening in October are heating up, with huge divergences hidden in the market🔥
The September rate hike dust has settled, but the market's tightening game is far from over.
This round's 25BP cut is just a short-term boot; funds have already priced in expectations for another rate hike in October.
According to the latest CME interest rate futures data, the probability of a 25 basis point hike in October has climbed to 55.4%.
The Fed's dot plot stance is even tougher: there is a high probability of at least one more tightening move within the year.
This directly overturns the market's previous optimistic expectation of "a single rate hike to close the chapter." Now the core of the market game is no longer whether to hike, but whether tightening will become normalized and sustained.
Many wonder: after the rate hike, US stocks and BTC clearly rebounded quickly, with Bitcoin closing up nearly 2% intraday, and market sentiment visibly warming—so why am I still cautious?
Because the stubborn roots of inflation have not loosened at all:
Energy prices continue to rise, tariff cost transmission, large-scale capital investment in AI infrastructure, multiple factors support inflation resilience.
Coupled with the 10-year US Treasury yield holding steady at 5% and the US 30-year mortgage rate soaring to 6.95%, the high interest rate environment has deeply penetrated the real economy, leaving the Fed no room to ease.
Currently, there is a clear divergence between market sentiment and fundamentals:
Funds are gambling on short-term easing fantasies, betting that the Fed will not continue aggressive rate hikes, so after bad news lands, they rush to buy the rebound for repair.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
$BTC $ETH