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Let's take a look at the Ethereum section. The outlook for Ethereum is similar to before; it is still in the middle of the range and not very suitable for opening positions here. After tonight's data release, everyone should enter, take profit, or stop loss according to the price levels below. Ethereum price levels: ↑ Around 2,780: You can look to short on a rebound to this level. No separate stop loss is provided for short positions here, so please manage your risk accordingly. ↓ Around 2,650: You can try a small long position on a pullback. ↓ 2,600: Add to long positions. ✖ Below 2,400: Stop loss for long positions. The biggest Ethereum news tonight is that Citibank raised Ethereum's 12-month target price from $2,240 to $3,028, citing a market activity rebound and renewed ETF inflows. This is the institution's view for one year later, not tomorrow's price. Our plan focuses on the current range over the next few days; these two things do not conflict. You can keep the long-term optimism in mind, but for the short term, still operate around the 2,780 and 2,650 price levels. Why say it is in the middle now? Ethereum's current price is about 2,675, roughly 100 points below 2,780 and only about 20 points above 2,650. In the past 24 hours, OKX's range was 2,666 to 2,721, meaning it has been fluctuating between these two price levels all day. Chasing longs in this position has limited upside; chasing shorts is just above the level to test longs, so the entry cost-performance ratio is poor. A better approach is to plan both positions first,$ETH whale Maji just cut 231 $BTC.
Still holding ~35K $ETH at a ~$2,673 entry, worth ~$94.8M. $BTC is down from ~500 to ~269 coins.
$HYPE holdings unchanged—looks like he’s in it for the long haul. 📈#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #BTCInflowETHOutflow #USTreasuryYieldsClimb $OKB now ~$121 after ICE (NYSE parent) took a strategic stake in OKX at a $25B valuation.
Total supply locked at 21M after a 65.2M burn no more minting. Whale wallets quietly accumulated 128K OKB (~$8.5M) ahead of the news.
Resistance $125, support $108. Break above $125 opens $130+. Your read?
$OKB $HYPE hasn't broken the trend; it's just catching its breath below the previous high.
Current price is $88–89, about 10% below the September 23 high of $98. It dropped about 4% in 7 days, but still up about 7% in 30 days, roughly 3.5 times higher year-to-date. This is the first decent pullback in a strong trend, not a reversal.
The order book isn't overwhelmed either. Perpetual positions are about $1.9 billion, funding rate roughly +11% annualized, longs are paying, but it's far from extreme. ETFs were still buying last week, but started selling this week; those chasing highs are pulling out first.
Upside targets are $92, then $98. If it can't hold $92, expect a range between $87–92. Breaking below $84 ends the consolidation, next support is at $80.
If tomorrow's non-farm payrolls bring back the October rate hike expectations, high-beta HYPE will get hit first. Holding $84 keeps the narrative alive; breaking it pauses this year's legend. Which side are you on? 【On-Chain Trading Update｜BTC】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 83,921 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 839,210 USD
▪ Leverage: 16x
Note: This address has earned over 253,000 USD in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +10.18% 我們來看一下比特幣的部分。 目前看法差不多，大家按照價位進場、止盈或止損就好。今晚兩個美國數據都已經公布，這篇先把最新資訊補上，再談比特幣接下來怎麼看。先說結論：數據出來之後，比特幣的反應其實很平淡，沒有改變我們的計畫。 比特幣的價位： ▶ 開多：83,000 至 83,500 一帶，主要部位放這裡。 ▶ 現價：可以輕倉先試一點。 ▶ 目標：86,000。 ▶ 加碼：81,000。 ▶ 防守：78,000。 把今晚的走勢攤開來看，都是台灣時間、OKX 15 分鐘 K。8 點半初領失業金公布，那根 K 幾乎沒動，收在 83,856；9 點到 9 點半之間被賣到 83,413，是今晚的低點；9 點半美股開盤後拉回 83,900 附近；10 點 ISM 公布那根上下各晃了兩百多點，收 83,765；之後慢慢墊高，10 點半那根摸到 84,298，11 點多在 84,000 上下。整晚的區間不到 900 點。 平淡代表什麼？代表市場對這兩個數據沒有太大意外，多空都在等週五的非農。這種時候，價格在開多區上緣附近慢慢磨，對我們反而是好事：真的回到 83,000 至 83,500，就按計畫進；沒回來$BTC 📊
BTC sets the liquidity direction. ETH shows whether the move has follow-through, while PAXG can signal a shift toward defensive positioning.
The key metrics to watch remain price, volume, and open interest (OI).
🟢 BTC holds + ETH confirms → 🚀 Broader market strength could develop.
🟡 BTC holds + ETH diverges → Selective strength, with capital remaining concentrated in certain assets.
#DailyOrbit The tower crane arm is already stuck at the top level of the 90,000 mark, and all the contractors standing on this cantilever beam are reluctant to come down.
When they first entered the site wearing safety helmets, they agreed to just do a short job, plaster one layer of cement, and then leave. But it ended up with a 20% floating loss turning into mid-line main construction, a 50% floating loss turning into a long-term topping-off celebration. Now standing in the strong wind at over 80,000, I have become a firm "century project quality guardian." It's not that I don't want to jump down from the scaffolding, but if I jump down, I won't even have enough money to buy a safety net.
Look at the concrete grade in front of us, $BTC is muddling around near 83926.2. The upper Bollinger Band at 84263 is like the load-bearing beam of the top slab, pressing down hard; the middle band at 83794 is barely acting as a cushion layer, and the lower band at 83325 is the final settlement joint.
RSI is oscillating at 51.8, the mortar mix is neither thick nor thin, neither collapsing nor solidifying. Those boasting about high-tech blueprints might as well check how many piles have been driven into the foundation below. Since I'm deeply stuck on the top floor in the wind, I might as well consider myself working on a long-term municipal project. Although the foundation is shoddy, as long as the beam hasn't completely broken, I can stubbornly say this is maintenance work.
- Target: $BTC 🔴
- Entry: 83900 - 84300
- TP1: 83325
- TP2: 82500
- SL: 84600
The cement on this floor slab hasn't even solidified yet; stepping on it produces hollow echoes. 🏗️
#CoinMoveAlertThe Bitcoin pump-and-dump manipulators have been tugging at me nonstop; this roller coaster ride is making me nauseous!😵💫
---
【A glance at today's account is basically an ECG】
Today's profit curve really has me ground down repeatedly:
Within a single day, huge ups and downs, pulling back and forth. The manipulators do it on purpose—first giving you hope, then despair, and finally a little light to make you reluctant to leave.
【Current position】
Still holding onto my BTC long position stubbornly; that recent sharp drop almost forced me out. Luckily, I didn’t cut losses, and now the price has bounced back—not only breaking even but making a small profit.
But I’m not happy at all.
This "pump half, dump half" market is clearly the manipulators testing retail traders’ psychological limits. If you hold on, they give you some profit; if you can’t, you obediently hand over your chips.
I’m numb to it now.
My account dropped from 17,000 in the morning to 14,000, then back up to 17,000. The manipulators are playing with me like teasing a monkey.
I have only one thought now: keep pumping; once it hits 85,000, I’ll take profit immediately and walk away, no greed.
This time, I won’t fight it to the death. I’ll take this profit and run.
$BTC
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Rate-hike expectations have eased, so September NFP is now the next key catalyst.
$BTC keeps chopping between 82.8K–84.5K, while $ETH ranges around 2.66K–2.72K. No clear breakout yet—just bulls and bears battling for control.
In this market, patience beats chasing. 📊
#BTC #ETH #比特币ETF连续9日流入
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #BTCInflowETHOutflow #USTreasuryYieldsClimb $ZEC just reminded me of one of the hardest trading lessons: a lot of small wins can disappear from one bad trade. 😭
I shorted around $600, but instead of dropping, ZEC pushed toward $800. It was a clear reminder of why stop-losses and disciplined position sizing matter so much.
Fortunately, I kept the position small, which helped limit the damage.
No adding capital. No revenge trading. No trying to win it back immediately.
#DailyOrbit $BTC I’m taking a light short here. 🩳
Funding is positive, OI is elevated, and everyone seems bullish—too crowded for me. This isn’t a long-term bearish call, just fading the current sentiment.
Stop above the previous high. If it breaks, I’m out. No fixed target—let the market decide. 📉#USTreasuryYieldsClimb #BTCInflowETHOutflow #RateHikeDelayedJobsNext $CT caught my attention, so I took a small short at a decent entry. Not going heavy with the funding still high.
$SOON didn’t give the setup today, while $XDP keeps grinding lower, making me hesitant to chase shorts.
That’s enough screen time for now—food first. 😄 Happy National Day!
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #BTCInflowETHOutflow #USTreasuryYieldsClimb $BTC BTC技术盘面 1. K线结构：日线维持中期上升通道，中长期均线多头排列，价格稳定站在MA50、MA200上方；4小时级别进入高位箱体震荡，属于上涨中继洗盘形态，没有出现放量破位的反转K线。 2. 量能：冲高阶段放量，回撤阶段量能明显收缩，属于良性调整；现货ETF资金保持净流入，机构现货买盘托底；合约成交量占比偏高，杠杆资金博弈活跃，属于牛市中段典型特征。 3. 指标：日线RSI处于中性区间，没有极端超买；MACD零轴上方运行，红柱小幅收窄，代表短期上涨动能放缓，不是趋势转空。 4. 关键价位 • 短线强支撑：82500，筹码密集承接区，守住这里大盘多头结构完好。 • 深层支撑：77000，中期趋势生命线，一旦放量跌破该位置，大盘会进入深度回调。 • 第一压力：86500，前期高点套牢区；突破后上方目标96700。 5. 合约盘面：全网持仓处于中等水平，多空比相对均衡，资金费率小幅正向，没有极端单边多头；高位存在多头杠杆，若跌破82500，会触发连锁爆仓，带动全市场快速回撤。 大盘轮动预判（BTC带动逻辑） 1. 情景A：BTC守住82500，放量突破86500 大盘会开启板$BTC
BTC anchors liquidity. ETH measures crypto breadth, while PAXG tracks defensive rotation.
Price + volume + OI remain the key confirmation layer.
BTC leads + ETH confirms → 🚀 Expansion
BTC leads + PAXG dominates → ⚠️ Defensive Flow
Watch participation, not price alone#BTCInflowETHOutflow #USTreasuryYieldsClimb #SECOnchainFundingRules $BTC
BTC remains the market anchor. ETH gauges breadth, while PAXG tracks defensive capital.
Price alone is incomplete without supporting activity.
BTC leads + breadth expands → 🚀 Expansion
BTC leads + breadth contracts Caution
Confirmation before conviction#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #SECOnchainFundingRules $BTC
BTC controls liquidity. ETH tests follow-through, while PAXG highlights defensive rotation.
The key relationship remains price + volume + OI.
BTC holds + ETH confirms → 🚀 Broadening
BTC holds + ETH diverges Selective Strength
Let breadth validate the structure#USTreasuryYieldsClimb #SECOnchainFundingRules Repeated friction, SOL has come down and the comparison trend is gone, it can go now$BTC
BTC anchors the framework. ETH measures crypto participation, while PAXG gauges defensive positioning.
Aligned price and participation strengthen the market read.
BTC strength + ETH/PAXG align 🚀 Expansion
BTC strength + signals diverge Divergence#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #BTCInflowETHOutflow #SECOnchainFundingRules $BTC current price is 83858.8, after a daily high surge it started to converge and oscillate. The previous high at 87374.3 shows obvious resistance. I have entered a 3x small long position at 83819.6 with a very light position.
Short-term resistance is at 84440, key support at 83123.
Only by holding above the resistance level is there a chance to retest the previous high of 87374; once it effectively breaks below 83123, the bullish pattern will be broken, and it will pull back to the moving average buy zone around 81600.
This round of rise is driven by continuous inflows of ETF funds. Now the market divergence is growing, with some traders openly shorting BTC and liquidating altcoins. Coupled with approaching inflation data, hawkish Fed officials' statements, and rising expectations of rate hikes, macro-level uncertainties constantly loom overhead. High-level range oscillations and frequent stop-loss sweeps will become the norm, making heavy position speculation very risky.
I am the boss; in this market, small positions for trial and error are enough, don’t go all-in betting on direction.
$BTC
#BTC high-level range oscillation waiting for data guidance
#Fed rate hike expectations continue to disturb the market
#Crypto market long-short divergence further expands
Market observation only, not investment advice"The Last Day of September, I Don't Want to Get Stopped Out"
Ethereum is sideways again. Watching the market at 3 a.m., the short position's floating profit shrinks bit by bit, eyelids heavy. Fortunately, there's still room before the stop loss, so I decide to wait a bit longer.
Glanced at the 15-minute and 1-hour liquidation heatmaps—positions are densely packed both above and below. The market is stuck once again in the most uncomfortable middle ground. The last day of September—is it going to just contribute to fees? I’m unwilling.
Checked the data: Q3 2023 down 11.5%, 2024 up 24.3%, and so far in 2025 down 18.6%. The same September has brought surprises and lessons in history. The market never shows mercy just because "month-end should rebound."
But I still lean bearish. Only this time, I tell myself to wait for confirmation and close positions. No matter how tempting the monthly decline is, you need bullets to hold on until the trend emerges to realize gains. Those chasing rallies and selling dips often get slapped on both sides.
Whether September will be profitable, no one knows. But I know that not getting stopped out means there’s a next trade. Tonight, I don’t seek big profits, just to stay steady. Closing the laptop, eyes shut—opportunities always exist, but capital waits for no one.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC
BTC sets the rhythm. ETH reveals breadth, while PAXG tracks capital rotation across risk profiles.
Volume + OI show whether the move is being supported.
BTC leads + activity expands → 🚀 Momentum
BTC leads + activity fades Weakening
Participation reveals the quality of the move.#USTreasuryYieldsClimb #BTCInflowETHOutflow During the National Day holiday, while others are out enjoying fine food and drink, Green Hair Brother is still battling K-lines at 3 a.m.
Looking at his position records, I really don't know whether to feel sorry or to laugh. He said he wanted a prosperous National Day, but this prosperity was too thorough—trading nonstop from around 10 p.m. on September 30th until 3 a.m. on October 1st, switching back and forth between BTC and ETH, using 100x leverage in both full and isolated margin, turning trading into performance art.
The specific results are as follows:
$ETH 100x long opened first at 2693, lost 500U; dissatisfied, reversed to short at 2676, lost another 559U. Double loss on both long and short, shooting himself in both directions.
Then switched to $BTC, 100x short, lost 2083U.
The harshest was a 75x long at 84425, dropped to 83668, losing 3215U in one go.
The last two long positions quietly lost another 1300U.
Six trades, all red. Total loss over 7600U, with returns neatly terrifying, all between -46% and -71%.
While others were watching fireworks on National Day, Green Hair Brother was reading liquidation messages at 3 a.m. This isn’t giving money to the market; it’s paying the market an early New Year greeting. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC
BTC provides direction. ETH measures risk participation, while PAXG offers a defensive comparison.
A cleaner signal requires confirmation beyond price.
BTC holds + ETH strengthens → 🚀 Expansion
BTC holds + PAXG strengthens Defensive Rotation#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext $BTC
BTC defines the market structure. ETH tests breadth, while PAXG reflects defensive demand.
Price + volume + OI should remain aligned for stronger confirmation.
BTC leads + ETH confirms → 🚀 Broadening
BTC leads + ETH fades → ⚠️ Narrow Breadth#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #BTCInflowETHOutflow #IranUSDealStandoff TC weakens again, funding rates collectively turn cold, is market sentiment leaning bearish?
As Bitcoin weakens again, a signal worth noting has emerged:
According to the latest data from Coinglass, currently, whether on mainstream CEX or DEX, perpetual contract funding rates have overall entered a bearish range.
Many people know about funding rates but tend to overlook their underlying logic:
They represent the periodic cost exchanged between longs and shorts, used to anchor the contract price to the spot price;
Industry consensus: funding rate > 0.01% indicates long dominance, < 0.005% means market sentiment leans bearish.
This time it’s not a single platform anomaly but a state shown across exchanges, revealing two implications:
- Short-term longs are actively retracting, no longer aggressively betting on a rebound;
- Many funds are mentally preparing for further downside, with risk-off sentiment quietly rising.
But it’s important to distinguish: funding rate is a sentiment indicator, not a precise bottom-fishing or short-chasing signal.
Extreme rates can sometimes trigger reverse spikes; especially now stuck in the sensitive pre-nonfarm period, expectations can be shaken by data at any time.
Sentiment can be referenced but should not be directly used as an entry basis; position management remains paramount.
$BTC Oil continues to rally, $BZ reached 101.6
The US government has already notified Germany and France to use emergency diesel reserves to ease global fuel prices, otherwise they will block diesel exports. As the largest diesel exporter, the US is currently facing a bottleneck; although domestic oil prices will be affected, everything is worth it to stabilize the position of the US dollar!$BTC
BTC remains the directional anchor. ETH validates crypto breadth, while PAXG measures defensive rotation.
Price sets direction; participation reveals the strength behind it.
BTC leads + ETH/PAXG confirm → Expansion
BTC leads + ETH/PAXG diverge → Caution#USTreasuryYieldsClimb #SECOnchainFundingRules PRIORS 60x in ten days, the peak is only 10m, you still need to buy early to have an advantage! $ETH This market, watching the screen is purely a waste of electricity, grinding around 2685 all day, fluctuating only about twenty points up and down, both bulls and bears seem asleep
I checked several timeframes and found it quite interesting: the daily MACD is still a death cross, the big trend is still adjusting, but the 4-hour MACD has already formed a golden cross, the red bars just appeared, showing some upward momentum, while the 1-hour and 15-minute are weaker, oscillating back and forth. Simply put, the long-term cycle is resting, the mid-term cycle wants to rebound, and the short-term cycle is holding it back; the three cycles are each moving on their own
The key levels to watch are two: above at 2720 to 2723, which is previous resistance, tested several times but not broken; below around 2660, which is the low of this wave, if broken, support will have to be found at 2600
Looking at contract data, open interest has slowly decreased from the high, funding rates are close to zero, and the long-short ratio has dropped from 1.66 to 1.32, indicating many who chased longs have withdrawn, and leverage is less crowded. Not bad, but not great either
I currently have no position and am not in a hurry to enter. In this indecisive range, chasing highs or selling lows easily wears down principal. I'd rather wait for a volume breakout above 2720 or a direct break below 2660, then consider once the direction is clear
Do you have $ETH in hand? Are you waiting for a breakout or do you think it will break down first?
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元
Personal review, not investment advice!MU's earnings report exploded but the stock price remains weak; beware of the trap of good news being fully priced in
$MU $SNDK
Micron's earnings report exceeded expectations across the board, with revenue, EPS, and next quarter guidance all maxed out, but the price hit 1081 and then stalled. This kind of "strong performance, weak stock price" is a typical case of selling on the news.
The core reason is not a poor earnings report, but that the stock price had already priced in the optimistic outlook in advance. In this round of storage market boom, MU has already accumulated huge gains. The stories of AI storage price hikes and HBM shortages have long been reflected in the stock price. When the earnings report lands, the good news is realized, and profit-taking occurs, leading to the old script of "the better the news, the more funds run away." Placing short positions around 1081 to bet on a pullback after a failed rally is logical, but there is a huge risk: the semiconductor sector sentiment is easily influenced by the broader market and non-farm payrolls.
You cannot simply rely on "good news fully priced in" to be certain of a decline. If tonight's non-farm payrolls come in weak, US Treasury yields fall, and growth tech stocks rally collectively, MU could completely ignore the earnings report sell-off and be pushed higher again by funds, directly triggering short stop-losses.
Looking at $SNDK, market attention is heavily focused on Micron, and SNDK's expectations have not been fully priced in, so there is a possibility of capital rotation. But it must be recognized that it also belongs to the storage cycle stocks, sharing the same industry prosperity. When the broader market undergoes systemic sell-offs, it is difficult for it to perform independently. The so-called resilience is based on the premise that the sector does not collapse.
Key rhythm to watch:
MU: 1080-1090 is the strong resistance zone this round. If it fails to break through again, the pullback logic of selling on the news is confirmed; if it breaks and holds above 1090 with volume, it means profit-taking pressure is absorbed by new funds, and the short position idea is invalidated.
SNDK: Watch if funds show clear migration. Only if it consistently outperforms MU does the rotation logic hold; do not subjectively predict it will take over the rally prematurely.
Also, don't forget that tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are the biggest variable for the entire tech sector. When macro interest rate expectations change, valuations of storage cycle stocks will swing violently. It's fine to bet on a pullback after earnings, but be sure to set stop-losses and don't treat "selling on the news" as an inevitable outcome.
$MU $SNDK#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市，AI+加密叙事再获机构入口 首只NEAR现货ETF正式登陆美国，山寨币的机构化通道正在进一步扩张。 Bitwise旗下 NEAR ETF（NRR） 已于9月29日在NYSE Arca开始交易，成为美国首只直接持有NEAR现货的交易所产品，管理费为0.75%。Bitwise还计划对基金持有的NEAR进行质押，让投资者同时获得潜在的质押收益。  这件事真正值得关注的，不只是NEAR多了一个ETF，而是： 加密资产的机构入口正在从BTC、ETH进一步向细分赛道扩散。 而NEAR此次主打的并不是传统“公链”故事，而是： AI + Crypto + Agent经济。 随着AI Agent开始具备自主支付、交易和调用服务的能力，市场需要新的链上结算和协调基础设施，NEAR希望占据的正是这一位置。Bitwise也明确将NEAR定位为AI经济的基础设施。  更值得注意的是，NEAR在ETF正式上市之前已经经历大幅上涨，意味着市场实际上已经提前交易了ETF预期。 因此现在真正需要观察的是： ETF上市之后能不能持续吸金。 如果只📊 The Data Point
Bitcoin just recorded its strongest September on record, gaining around 7%, while the S&P 500 finished the month lower.
Meanwhile, Gold fell by more than 6% over the same period.
This price action challenges the idea that $BTC simply trades like a high-risk tech asset.
Could we be seeing a broader shift in capital allocation, with money moving away from traditional assets and increasingly toward crypto?
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
#DailyOrbit $ZEC is stuck in a brutal 1400–1500 chop zone—longs get trapped, shorts get squeezed. 😵💫
No need to guess the next move. I’d rather wait for a clean break and hold above 1500 or below key support. Until then, smaller positions and patience. DYOR.
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #USTreasuryYieldsClimb #IranUSDealStandoff Happy National Day to everyone! 🇨🇳 Doge is starting to build applications, and there's a new topic tonight~ 🐶 $DOGE - DogeOS Public Testnet LIVE DogeOS has opened its public testnet, providing developers with an EVM-compatible environment. Teams working on lending, trading, gaming, and other products are building on it. For token holders, the story can finally move towards "what can I do with it." Ready-made dev tools can be reused, which is easier to attract builders than requiring teams to Nonfarm Preview｜Key Focus Tomorrow, October 2, 20:30 Beijing Time, US September Nonfarm Payrolls
⚠️Risk Warning: Sharing only fundamental logic, not constituting any trading advice. Nonfarm volatility is very high, please ensure proper risk control.
📊Market Expectations
✅New Nonfarm Jobs: Expected 84,000–90,000, Previous 162,000 (August jobs significantly exceeded expectations)
✅Unemployment Rate: Expected 4.1%, same as previous
✅Core Focus: Average Hourly Earnings, wages directly affect inflation and are the Fed's most watched data
🔍Leading Clues
👉Strong Signals: Initial jobless claims remain low, no large-scale layoffs yet
👉Weak Signals: August base was very high, market generally expects September employment to decline
🎬Three Market Scenarios
1️⃣Nonfarm > 100,000｜Employment exceeds expectations
Labor market remains resilient, rate cut expectations delayed, USD tends to strengthen, gold under pressure
2️⃣Nonfarm 70,000–90,000｜Meets expectations
Employment slows moderately, consistent with Fed’s desired soft landing, market likely to be volatile, focus on unemployment rate and wages
3️⃣Nonfarm < 60,000｜Significantly below expectations
Employment clearly weakens, rate cut expectations rise, USD weakens, gold likely to rally
💡Personal View
Don’t just focus on new jobs in nonfarm data; unemployment rate and wages are equally critical. Often, good data triggers sell-offs as a shakeout. Heavy bets on data are not recommended; prepare multiple contingency plans in advance. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Currently, the funding rate remains positive, open interest is high, and bullish sentiment is starting to become crowded. This does not mean I am bearish on BTC's long-term trend; it is just a pullback trade targeting the current short-term overheated sentiment. ⚖️ Small position 🛑 Clear stop loss 🚫 No stubborn holding, no adding positions to bet on a rebound If BTC breaks above the previous high with volume, I will exit immediately. Trading the current structure, not personal views. Manage risk first, then wait for market confirmation. #RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #USTreasuryYieldsClimb #NVIDIA150BBuyback10.1 Gold Midnight Review
Current gold spot price is 4160.17. The midnight gold price retreated from a high and maintained a weak consolidation. The evening review's rebound short strategy was realized, pressure predictions were accurate, and the market rhythm met expectations.
Technical analysis: The 1-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing downward, with the gold price running below the middle band, indicating continued bearish pressure; the 30-minute Bollinger Bands are flattening slightly downward, price is oscillating narrowly, rebound is weak, and the long-term bearish pattern remains unchanged.
Resistance above at 4170, 4185; support below at 4142, 4130.
Cocoa recommendation: Continue to short on rebounds at midnight, do not chase longs. Short in the 4175-4195 rebound range, targets at 4160, 4130, participate with light positions, and strictly set stop-loss.
Note: The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $XAU $ETH whale Maji just cut 231 $BTC.
Still holding ~35K $ETH at a ~$2,673 entry, worth ~$94.8M. $BTC is down from ~500 to ~269 coins.
$HYPE holdings unchanged—looks like he’s in it for the long haul. 📈#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #BTCInflowETHOutflow #USTreasuryYieldsClimb A progress easily overshadowed by time but significant in technical terms: the Airbender team of ZKsync managed to "prove every L1 EVM block with just two 5090 GPUs," consuming about 1 kilowatt of power.
What's the weight here? It lowers the hardware threshold for ZK proofs from data centers to consumer-grade GPUs. If the proof cost can really be reduced to this level, "using ZK proofs for the entire Ethereum chain state" moves from theory to engineering feasibility — this is one of the few solid metrics to counter the long-standing criticism that the ZK narrative is "too far from practical implementation."
The ZK track has been hyped for years, but the real measurable progress is in these concrete numbers of "how low the cost can be to prove a block."Citibank calls for 113,000?
$BTC has a striking number today: Citibank raised its 12-month target price from 82,000 to 113,000 dollars, citing reasons including ETF capital inflows and increased crypto activity. This means institutional expectations are improving, but the forecast period is a full year, so it cannot be directly used to explain the next short-term movement. The 10 o'clock quote is still around 83,700, so there is still a gap between the target and reality. I am more concerned whether the funds supporting this forecast will continue to flow in: if subsequent inflows materialize, the optimistic judgment will have more basis.
$ONDO faces a more practical challenge tonight, around 0.4936u at 22:40, down about 5.1% in one day and about 7.4% over the past week. The story of business expansion is still ongoing, but the short term needs to first digest selling pressure. 0.50u can be used as a convenient observation point for comparison, but being close to it does not mean a turnaround; whether it can hold after climbing back above is more critical. At this time, instead of asking "why is it falling despite cooperation," it is better to acknowledge the time lag between news and trading rhythm and manage project progress and holding costs separately.
$HYPE is around 89u, still up about 2.2% in 24 hours, retaining some relative resilience. However, it has still fallen about 2.1% over the past week, and today's rise does not yet indicate the adjustment is fully over. Tonight I will watch whether this resilience continues: whether the pullback can be shallower, whether the rebound can hold, rather than rushing to treat the previous high as the destination. If it only shines on the gain leaderboard but the actual quote cannot be pushed, expectations for acceleration should be lowered. Strength is worth attention, but chasing prices still requires calculating the tolerable drawdown.Revision of PCE statistical caliber should not be simply understood as "data falsification to deceive"
$BTC $XAU
Last night, PCE surged then fell back. Many opinions blame the entire market reversal on the revision of the statistical model, believing the new model artificially suppresses inflation to 3.0, while the old model remains at 3.3, claiming the market was deceived by the data, and that later rate hike expectations actually rose. But the market's contradictions are the result of multiple forces combined, and cannot be entirely blamed on the statistical revision.
The BEA indeed updated three sub-statistical methods in this release: portfolio management services, legal services, and computer software, and retrospectively revised historical data from past years. This adjustment brings about a downward correction of about 0.2-0.3 percentage points to core PCE. It is not a temporary tampering with this month's single data, but an annual routine methodological update, which institutions were already informed of in advance.
The market's first wave of rally traded on the officially released 3.0% reading, and the probability of a rate hike in October directly dropped to 37%. But subsequently, the 2-year and long-term US Treasury bonds showed huge divergence: the short end fell following the inflation reading, while the 10-year and 30-year yields quickly pulled back. The driver of the long-end rebound is not simply "seeing through the statistical revision"; two major real variables hit simultaneously: ADP employment exceeded expectations, and GDP final value was revised upward, proving the resilience of the US economy; meanwhile, the geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices up, and energy inflation risks re-emerged.
In other words, the market did not react late to the statistical revision, but the cooling inflation reading conflicted with the strong realities of employment, economy, and oil prices. The interplay of these two forces caused the initial rise followed by a fall.
This is well explained in the BTC and gold markets: the initial positive sentiment pushed prices up, but when long-term bond yields rose again, the pressure of high interest rates suppressed risk assets and precious metals, causing prices to fall back. The statistical revision changes the historical inflation in the rearview mirror, while employment, oil prices, and geopolitics are real variables currently unfolding.
The biggest misconception now: attributing this decline entirely to the statistics "deceiving the market." Even without revising the model, economic overheating plus rising oil prices would still constrain the Fed from quickly turning to easing. The statistical revision is a disturbance, not the sole root cause of the market reversal.
The upcoming nonfarm payrolls will wash away this layer of statistical noise. Rather than obsessing over data calibers, more attention should be paid to the real feedback from nonfarm employment wages and long-term US Treasury yields. Tonight, do not use "PCE being revised" as the core reason for a one-sided bet; the real employment data is the judge.
$BTC $XAUPCE lower than expected! The probability of a rate hike drops to 38%, why doesn't $BTC rise?
Core PCE in August was 3.0% year-over-year, below expectations, and the probability of a rate hike fell from 50% to 38%. Goldman Sachs directly postponed the rate hike to December.
Logically, this is very good news, BTC should rally. But BTC actually fell 0.16%, why?
Because the good news has already been fully priced in. Before the PCE release, BTC had already risen from 82,600 to 84,000, up 1,400 points, preemptively digesting the good news.
More importantly, funds are diverging: BTC ETF inflows have continued for 9 consecutive days totaling 3.08 billion, but daily inflows shrank from 1 billion to 66.19 million; ETH ETF ended 7 days of inflows and started net outflows.
Institutions are buying BTC but no longer buying ETH, and inflows are slowing down. Before Friday's nonfarm payrolls release, 84,000 is the top. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 During these two days of the National Day holiday, macro data is the main market driver.
At 8:30 PM on September 30, the core PCE data will be released first, followed by the big non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate at 8:30 PM on October 2. With these two major data points dropping one after another, the phase bottom will most likely appear during these two days.
After the bottom is established, the National Day period from October 2 to 8 could very well be the golden window for this rally's strong push.
But keep a clear head: the hundred-day bull run from June to October is basically nearing its end after this rise, so aggressively chasing highs again at the end of October raises questions about cost-effectiveness.
Rhythm is more important than direction; watch the data first before making moves. $BTC $ETHMa Ji's latest position changes are worth noting. 🔵 $ETH remains its largest holding, with about 35,000 ETH at an average cost of around $2,673. Meanwhile, $BTC holdings have significantly decreased: 💰 ETH: ~35,000 🟠 BTC: ~269 BTC (previously about 500 BTC) 🔥 HYPE: holdings remain unchanged This means its BTC exposure has recently contracted significantly, while ETH still holds a core position. 👀 Is this simply a position adjustment, or a further shift of funds toward $ETH? The upcoming on-chain position changes are worth continued observation. #ETH #BTC #HYPE #DailyOrbit🚨 $ENA — Major Unlocks Ahead! 🔻
📉 Short PnL: +23.57%
Key Unlock Dates:
• Oct 2: 95.31M ENA unlock
• Oct 5: 171.87M ENA unlock 🔥
⚠️ Why it matters: Oct 5 marks the final investor unlock, with around 1.41B ENA (~14% of total supply) involved.
📊 Technical picture: ENA was rejected near $0.27827, while SAR remains bearish around $0.26851.
Key support: $0.24750
With additional supply entering the market, selling pressure could remain elevated.
#DailyOrbit $OKB current situation in one sentence: supply is locked, but the price is not.
The burn in August permanently fixed the total supply at 21 million, the minting function was directly cut off, and scarcity was coded in. But the coin price has dropped from $256 at the beginning of the year to around $122 now, more than halved.
Today's market: current price 122.11, up 0.67%. The 1-hour moving averages (MA5:121.47, MA10:121.32, MA20:121.34) are starting to converge and flatten, RSI6 back to 71.73, showing signs of short-term stabilization. Resistance above is first at 122.61, which is the high from an hour ago, then the 123.50-124.00 range; support below is at 121.00, if broken then look at 120.50.
Where is the problem? OKX has also stopped quarterly buybacks, so the deflation logic changed from "the project team buying with money" to "relying on user activity." X Layer on-chain data is decent, daily active users surged from 40,000 to 180,000, TVL increased nearly 10 times in half a year, but whether this can sustain and truly convert into demand for OKB remains to be seen.
In one sentence: the trump card of 21 million has been revealed, now the bet is whether the ecosystem can activate this card. Scarcity alone cannot support the price; real demand is needed.
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 October 1 Night
ETH perpetual, viewed at 23:28 on 15-minute and 1-hour charts. Current price around 2689.
The 1-hour is in a box between 2680–2712, EMA5/10/20 tangled around 2692, price pressed below the moving averages, flat, no direction. Daytime high around 2718 was pushed back, volume is average.
The 15-minute chart shows a downward move from 2706–2711 in the evening, current price stuck between 2687–2690, short moving averages are all above the price, the last small bullish candle just touched support without breaking above the moving averages, and no volume increase.
No reversal at support, no pullback confirmation at resistance, price is in the middle of the range. After 23:00, liquidity worsens, not meeting entry conditions.
According to the rules: no K-line confirmation, no trade. Staying flat tonight, closing the charts.
Tomorrow only watching two positions: hold 2680 and break above the cluster of moving averages at 2692, then consider a small long; or break through 2712 and retest without breaking down, then watch. If it breaks below 2680 and fails to recover, continue to wait. Single trade still capped at 0.5U, position size one quarter, no chasing.【On-Chain Trading Activity｜ETH】
Monitored address 0x5165 opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: 2,695.1 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 39,998.25 USD
▪ Leverage: 25x
Note: This address has earned over 63,000 USD in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +22.37% According to on-chain data, Ma Ji recently reduced holdings by about 231 BTC, with BTC holdings dropping from approximately 500 to about 269 BTC. However, from an overall position perspective, ETH remains the largest holding: 🔵 ~35,000 ETH 💰 Average cost around $2,673 📊 Based on current data, the holding value is about $948M Meanwhile, the HYPE holdings have not shown significant changes yet, but the recent price pullback has turned previous unrealized gains into unrealized losses. 👀 Worth noting: BTC positions are decreasing, while the core ETH position remains at a relatively high scale. Whether the whale will continue to adjust asset allocation later may become an on-chain signal that the market pays attention to. #RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #USTreasuryYieldsClimb #IranUSDealStandoff #ETH #BTC #HYPE #DailyOrbit