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#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital heat. BTC shows slight weakness after a short-term surge; I tend to think the rebound is nearing its end, so be cautious about chasing longs. Looking at the market, it rose 2.1% in 24h to 85499, with a high of 85532.3 and a low of 83123.1, trading volume 8.644 million. Both 1-hour and 4-hour charts are trending upward, but the funding rate of -0.0013% indicates bears have a slight advantage. Open interest is 30,000 coin-margined contracts, with a top 10 bid-ask ratio of 1.42; bids are supporting the price but buying strength at highs is weak. Strategy: lightly short at 86270, stop loss at 86980, target 84320; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 83640, consider a short-term long, stop loss 82910, target 85260. Keep position size within 20%, and set strict stop losses.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BTC#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital heat
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital heat $BTC CORE (Core DAO) is currently priced at about $0.022, with a market cap around 33 million, ranked 500+, down 99.6% from the June 2023 high of $6.14–6.47. In July, it touched a historical low of 0.0167 and is now consolidating near 0.02 at a low level.
The underlying narrative is still alive: Satoshi Plus combines BTC hashrate delegation + CORE staking + BTC timelock staking. According to official data, over 2k BTC and 293M+ CORE are staked on-chain, maintaining its position as a BTCFi gateway offering "BTC yield + EVM".
However, trust in the token side has been broken:
At the end of August, a reward contract vulnerability prematurely released about 255 million tokens; a hard fork destroyed 186 million, but approximately 69 million tokens flowed to external addresses and were not recovered, causing selling pressure and incomplete disclosure;
The total supply hard cap of 2.1 billion remains unchanged, but with an 81-year linear release schedule plus some team/treasury tokens unlocked and recalculated by exchanges into circulation, the actual circulating supply is about 71% (~1.5 billion). Selling pressure is monthly, not daily;
In 2026, the model will change: stopping token burns and switching to "ecosystem revenue buybacks," but real fees from SatPay / lstBTC / AMP are minimal, so buybacks will not offset new issuance.Floating profits are on a roller coaster, and my mindset is completely shattered! I am your master.
$ETH current price is 2718.76, the 1-hour chart surged to 2727 then immediately pulled back, RSI has already reached around 74, clearly entering the short-term overbought zone. Buy orders account for as much as 96% of the market, with everyone rushing to go long. Such a one-sided situation often leads to a violent shakeout.
BTC continues to strengthen, dragging Ethereum upwards. All moving averages on the 1-hour chart are bullish, the short-term trend looks strong, but volume has not expanded accordingly. Inflation data is still uncertain, and large funds may seize any positive news to cash out and dump the market at any time. Many people hold long positions bought at low prices and are reluctant to take profits, hoping to catch a big move, riding the elevator up and down, with floating profits repeatedly shrinking.
Short-term resistance is at 2727; if it can't break through, it is likely to turn down and retest support. The first support is at 2698; if this level doesn't hold, it will directly test the platform support at 2666.
Don't blindly chase highs now. The market is crowded with bulls, and a single large bearish candle can wash out most short-term long positions. The trend is not over yet; taking profits on floating gains is the real profit. Being stubborn about the big picture can easily lead to giving back all the profits.
#ETH short-term bulls crowded, beware of shakeout
#1-hour level overbought, watch for quick pullback
$ETH $BTC
Market observation only, not investment adviceRecent derivatives data for Ethereum show some noteworthy changes: 🔹 OI has dropped to about 12.49 million ETH, hitting the lowest level since March this year, indicating that leveraged positions are contracting. 🔹 The funding rate remains slightly positive, meaning bullish sentiment has not completely disappeared but has not significantly heated up either. 🔹 Taker Flow is about 0.75, with active selling still holding some advantage and short-term buying pressure relatively weak. 🔹 ETF funds have also cooled down, with a net outflow of approximately $59.6 million on September 30, showing institutional funds currently lack sustained momentum. 🎯 Key zone: $2,750–$2,800 If ETH can break through this supply zone with volume and stabilize above it, the short-term structure may further improve; otherwise, if the breakout fails, the market should still watch the support at $2,670 → $2,636. What deserves more attention now is not chasing the rally, but whether breakout confirmation + capital flow + OI changes improve synchronously. #ETH #Ethereum #CryptoMarket #ETHAnalysis #DailyOrbit #RateHikeDelayedJobsNext Market outlook: The battle between bulls and bears is left to the Nonfarm Payrolls; controlling your actions is the best strategy
BTC and ETH are steadily rising, the trend looks healthy, and the bullish logic holds up. All short positions on Bitcoin have exited, only one short position on ETH is kept for observation, showing a balanced approach.
Currently, the main pressure on the crypto market is not ETF fund flows but the high interest rate environment. U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, naturally weighing on risk asset valuations. Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls report is the biggest short-term judge: if the data weakens, the market will strengthen expectations for a pause in rate hikes, which is positive for crypto prices; if the data significantly exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will reignite this year, leading to a round of sell-offs.
With PCE inflation cooling as a foundation, the forecast leans bullish, but no heavy bets will be placed. No new positions will be opened before the news is confirmed. There are too many variables now; no early directional bets will be made. Wait for the data to be released and for the market to show clear signals before taking action.
$BTC $ETH $BTC This ID's viewpoint:
BTC on the 30-minute level started from the low point of 82563, belonging to an upward continuation trend, forming a third buy structure, with bulls dominating, waiting for a pullback opportunity.
Entry: Enter again after a minor pullback does not break below ZG and a bottom fractal appears;
Stop loss: Below 83000.
Chan Theory Structure:
The purple box is the core pivot, with ZG around 84000 and ZD around 83000. After a previous surge to 85649.95, it pulled back, the pullback did not enter the pivot, forming a third buy, currently testing the previous high again. If it holds above the previous high, the uptrend continues; if it falls back into the pivot range, the market turns into a consolidation expansion.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation:
When hitting 85649.95, volume surged with the price, releasing short-term supply. This rally's volume is weaker than the previous wave, indicating a probing upward attack. After a new high, volume contraction tends to cause stagnation; volume contraction on pullback indicates selling pressure exhaustion.
Core Observation:
Focus on the effectiveness of breaking through the previous high at 85649.95; if volume expands and it holds above, the bullish trend continues to expand; if the surge is on shrinking volume and fails to break through, a minor pullback will start. During the pullback, watch the selling pressure size; only a volume-contracted pullback to support is worth participating in, while a volume-expanding dip requires caution.ETH's recent market trend is oscillating within a four-hour cycle. Altcoins are generally quietly retreating. Altcoins tend to be sold off unnoticed, and when people realize it, there's a sharp drop. So, before ETH shows a clear stance, it's best to minimize trading altcoins. Ideally, wait for a strong oversold condition before re-entering. As long as ETH stays within the range, trade by selling high and buying low, then follow the trend once a direction emerges.Scrolling through the profile of the planet blogger "Genius Girl Qiuqiu," I immediately saw that the total trading record showed a loss of -91.87%.
Latest position: $ZEC perpetual contract, 50x leverage long, entry price 1447.38, mark price 1449.99, current floating profit +9.01%.
The magical feeling of high leverage is right here: even though the overall account is nearly halved to zero, still daring to go all in with 50x leverage for speculation, and can still catch floating profits in the short term. The blogger also mentioned in updates the repeated back-and-forth market swings and the experience of being liquidated with one click late at night.
This kind of ultra-high leverage trading has an extremely low error tolerance; a single large adverse move can lead to immediate liquidation. Temporary floating profits do not mean they can be realized, and the historical large loss data is a warning for everyone.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Contract leverage trading carries huge risks, provided only as a community case observation, does not constitute any trading advice, do not blindly follow trades. #OKX全球资产便利店 #OKX星球话题来啦 🔥The market is still volatile, but Brother Maji has started to take action.
📈The latest position changes show that the total holding size continues to increase, rising from around $150 million to $161 million.
The most obvious move in this adjustment:
BTC keeps increasing positions.
From 369 coins to 546 coins, with an average price near 84,500, margin increased accordingly, clearly strengthening the core position.
💰ETH slightly decreased but still maintains over 30,000 coins, with an average price around $2,678.
HYPE continues to add positions; although currently at a floating loss, the position has not been obviously abandoned.
🧠From the overall changes, it looks more like funds are being re-concentrated:
Reducing some marginal positions,
Increasing BTC weight,
Waiting for the market's next directional choice.
However, the giant whale's strategy is completely different from ordinary people.
They have funds, space, and the ability to withstand volatility.
⚠️Don't just copy others' position increases directly.
What really matters is:
Capital flow,
Position changes,
Risk control.
Brothers, do you think Maji is laying out in advance this time, or simply adjusting positions?
Let's discuss in the comments.
For personal record only, not trading advice.#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 The market has been as dull as plain water these past two days, yet $SOL has quietly climbed back to 80% of this month's gains during a period when no one is watching the charts.
There's a data point on the futures side worth keeping an eye on: as the price rises, the total network's bet positions are actually shrinking, down nearly four percentage points. Textbooks call this a sign of weak upward momentum, so it should be taken with caution. After the selling pressure is cleared, only then is the upward move solid.
The logic is simple. Those who wanted to exit have already done so this month; what's left are holders who can endure. Those who want to chase are still away on holiday. Both buyers and sellers are hesitant, so even a small amount of buying can push the price up. The daily volatility is shrinking day by day, from nearly five points down to just over one point, leaving little room for fluctuation. This kind of rise may not look exciting, but there are no floating leverages underneath; every bit of the increase is backed by real money.
The funding rate has returned to positive, but it's so shallow it can be ignored. Directionally, shorts have not replenished after being depleted in the last round. Large holders' positions remain firmly on the long side, unmoved. Spot trading volume is just over $200 million a day, and the fear and greed index is still stuck in the greed zone.
A volume-driven surge is emotional and anyone can fake it. This slow, uncompetitive rise means chips are moving into the hands of those who truly hold, making it hard for the price to collapse after the rise.
I haven't moved any SOL these past two days. Positions are shrinking, prices are rising, and sellers are gone — that's the current state.Market Notes: Taking profits is a pleasant surprise, but reversing to short positions directly encounters bullish pulses
ARB placed a 0.2016 take-profit order quietly at midnight, which was executed silently. The market surged to 0.203, originally securing this short-term profit steadily. Thinking to test the waters by shorting at the high, unexpectedly the market continued to rise, causing both full and isolated short positions to be trapped.
The trigger for this round of rally was BTC pushing toward the 85,000 mark, with ETH simultaneously rising 20 points to 2720, driving altcoins like ARB to follow the uptrend. The core battle points in the market now are these two levels: BTC 85,000 is the short-term strength/weakness dividing line; holding it will keep bullish sentiment fermenting; ETH 2720 is a heavy resistance where bulls and bears will fiercely contest.
The biggest lesson from this operation is that in a volatile market, immediately opening a reverse position right after taking profits can easily run into short-term pulse moves. Profits were directly given back twice over, and the account was reset to the original entry point. Since the short position is already held, closely watch the two key price levels of 85,000 and 2720. With the non-farm payroll report about to be released, the price spikes up and down will become even more intense, so do not stubbornly hold without setting stops.
$ARB $BTC $ETH BTC current price 85517, the market has entered a high-level consolidation after bull exhaustion. The upward momentum is dull, active buying is weak, approaching a strong resistance zone. On the liquidation map, a large number of short stop losses are piled above 86000, and the long liquidation zone below has completed the shakeout. This is now a typical stage of bulls taking profits and shorts competing.
Just pushed open a crack in the security booth window, the night wind blew in, clearing my mind quite a bit.
In terms of operation, focus on observing the breakout strength between 85800 and 86300. If volume expands but price stagnates, there is a high probability of a pullback and further decline. Strong support below is in the 83000 to 84000 range. The conclusion is very clear: high-level consolidation with a downward bias, not suitable for chasing highs. If you want to short, try light positions between 85800 and 86300, take profit at 83500, stop loss at 86800. If you want to go long, wait for a pullback to 83000 to 84000 to see if it holds. Chasing longs now is just giving money to the main force.
$BTC
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
@OKX星球 Nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 tonight, my alarm is already set.
To be honest, I really can't predict this data.
Bearish signals: Consumer confidence has collapsed to the lowest since 2014, job vacancies hit a five-month low, companies' hiring willingness dropped to a fifteen-year low, and tech company layoffs surged 77% in one month.
Bullish signals: The number of layoffs by companies hit a four-year low for the same period, initial jobless claims are 197,000, nearly back to 1969 levels. The small ADP report the day before yesterday showed 90,000 new jobs, exceeding expectations.
You see the dilemma, right? Employers are neither laying off nor hiring; the entire job market is frozen. They don't dare to lay off, fearing they can't rehire. They don't dare to hire, because the 5.3% interest rate is too high. This kind of frozen market can be decided by just one data point.
I tend to bet on weakness.
Confidence, vacancies, and hiring willingness—all three lines are sliding down; I don't believe it will suddenly strengthen tonight. But I also don't dare to bet too heavily; that 90,000 ADP number is specifically a slap in the face to people like me.
The market means that Bitcoin has been consolidating in a triangle for three days, between 82,800 and 85,200, just waiting for tonight's trigger. If the data is weak, the rate hike expectations will drop further, and the price will look up to 85,200. If the data is strong, stagflationists revive, and 82,800 will take a hit first.
You all know my rule: before the trigger is pulled, no bullets are loaded.
What do you think? Is tonight's nonfarm payrolls the solid proof of a soft landing, or the sound of ice cracking?
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC $ETH $CL Review and Reflection: Holding onto profitable trades is manageable, but losses swallowing up positions are the invisible killer.
Although the account still shows a profit on paper, the situation of having positions in extreme opposite states has sounded an alarm. The slowly accumulated profits from winning positions cannot withstand the continuous bleeding from losing positions.
$BTC, as the ballast stone, was opened at 84044.47, current price 84610, with 20x full position leverage steadily raising floating profits bit by bit, supporting the account’s base. In a volatile market, BTC’s stability is the most reliable safety net in a short-term portfolio.
$SOL was a cross-margin trial entry at 117.41, current price 118.7, with 20x leverage yielding a good return. The strategy of separating cross-margin and full-margin positions shows a huge advantage here: profits are not affected by other positions, resulting in clean and neat gains.
The most fatal is $ZEC. Opened at 1403.02, current price 1329.54, 20x full position leverage, losses directly breached the margin. Many overlook one thing: under full-margin leverage, losing positions do not independently stop losses but continuously consume profits earned from other trades in the account. Even if BTC and SOL keep profiting, they will be gradually eaten away by it. If the market continues to decline, the account drawdown will instantly magnify.
Holding a portfolio is not about just picking two right assets and resting easy. The biggest risk in leveraged trading is never a single wrong trade, but letting losing positions consume profits without limit. Holding onto profitable trades is fine, but full-position trapped positions cannot be stubbornly held; loss transmission must be cut off in time.
Next, focus on the non-farm payroll data. Pressure on long-term US Treasury yields remains, and the market may see sudden sharp moves anytime. Leveraged positions must be carefully managed and adjusted.
$BTC $SOL $ZECThis model chart focuses on two core variables: 🔹 X-axis: 1️⃣ Amplification 2️⃣ BTC CAGR (Bitcoin CAGR rate) 🔹 Y-axis: 📈 Total Return Capital 🔹 Cost dimension: 🟢 Green area = 13% Cost of Capital 🟡 Yellow area = 12% The core logic is: when BTC's long-term compound growth rate and capital amplification occur simultaneously, the cost of capital significantly affects the final 4-year cumulative return. The higher the cost of capital, the higher the return requirements for leverage/amplification strategies. In other words, what really needs to be paid attention is not just how much BTC has risen but also the combination relationship among amplification factor + BTC CAGR + funding cost. 📌 This is more like a "return sensitivity map," suitable for observing the potential returns of long-term amplification strategies under different capital cost environments Cc: @longgamma @TNorth #BTC #Bitcoin #BTCCAGR #TotalReturn #CostOfCapital #Crypto #BTCAnalysis$BTC Last year's National Day, Bitcoin rose for 7 consecutive days, almost setting new all-time highs every day. The National Day became a bull market carnival!
I remember it very clearly; I had positioned short before the National Day, and with a heavy position!
As a result, it hit new highs every day, making me anxious throughout the entire National Day.
Fortunately, although Bitcoin hit new highs daily, it never strayed too far each time, so for the full 7 days, I was just trapped and annoyed, but the price didn’t actually rise much!
Luckily, just a few days after National Day, it started to plunge sharply. Not only did I get out of the trap, but I also gained the biggest profit since I started trading Bitcoin.
So, I often talk about this with others, which makes it very memorable.
Seeing this National Day’s bull market, it somewhat resembles last year’s trend, with bulls mainly defending and slowly pushing up, fluctuating up and down.
But overall, the actual price increase is not much.
Bitcoin did not see reduced volume during National Day; the trading volume on various exchanges remained at normal levels, liquidity was normal.
Unlike the weekend when volume shrinks and price moves sideways.
Therefore, I predict there might be market movement during this National Day. It’s best not to ignore the market just because everyone seems to be resting for the holiday.
Be cautious and keep monitoring the trend frequently.
You can set two alert points.
82800, if volume breaks down below, watch for continued decline.
85600, if volume breaks through and holds, watch for continued rise.
As long as the price doesn’t break these two levels, I believe the market is still sideways and nothing to fear.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only! 114 ETH just disappeared.
SlowMist just reported that the Loop Safe module in Aave v3 was exploited.
The attacker forged a Safe authentication, directly accessed two multi-signature addresses, and withdrew the coins.
They also conveniently repaid 1300 WETH of debt, unlocking the collateral.
The whole operation was quite smooth, not like a spur-of-the-moment act.
My first reaction wasn’t that Aave itself had issues, but that with more and more of these "modules," who is watching these gaps?
Multi-signature sounds secure, but once the adapter layer is breached, multi-sig is useless.
114 ETH isn’t a huge amount nowadays, but the technique is worth studying.
Did someone scout this out in advance, or have these vulnerabilities just been there unnoticed?
What do you think, which protocol will be next to be exposed?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $ETH Still waiting for 75,000? This kind of waiting risks missing the entire cycle
Many people focus on smaller levels thinking: if it drops further to 75,000, wouldn’t buying then be more cost-effective? I don’t deny this possibility, but the probability is very low, and the cost of betting on it is missing the whole cycle.
Currently, this pullback is between 0.618 and 0.5 retracement levels, tested repeatedly without breaking, the bullish structure remains intact. Use 0.618 as a defense point to go long on dips, with bullish extension targets between 90,000 and 92,000.
If it really breaks below, it’s not too late to revise the judgment.
Are you currently holding no position waiting for a pullback, or do you already have a position? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 有人问怎么磨练心态、怎么把止损执行下去。我的回答可能不太中听：多数人做不好止损，不是纪律问题，是不愿意接受亏损。 这种心理很常见，我管它叫亏损厌恶。计划里写的是一千点止损，真到了位置，心里开始找理由——再等等、快反弹了、前面都没破，最后扛到一万点也没走。问题不在止损设得对不对，在于你压根不接受这笔会亏这件事。 所以第一件事，是把亏损当成正常成本。一笔错了就错了，它不该影响下一笔的判断。第二件事，得失心别太重。错过的行情不做，不在你交易计划内的波动，跟你没关系，等第二天再做也行。不少人就是在踏空之后硬追，把本来没亏的钱亏进去了。 心态怎么稳？我的做法很笨但有效：把重仓放在现货。假设你有十万，七八万放现货，剩下两三万做杠杆。现货的好处是行情涨上去它就在，你不会因为踏空而焦虑，杠杆那部分做起来也不容易上头。我一直讲七成仓位压现货，长线靠现货，合约有机会做长线、没机会就做短线，别把两件事混成一个仓位。 再回两条留言。有人问，既然看回调，怎么还能买在低点？这靠的是盘感和结构经验，不是靠猜，没有这个积累就别指望每次都买在最舒服的位置。还有人说我65000开的两倍长线多太保守，应该开三倍——别这么想Breaking the rules on the eve of the non-farm payrolls! Crazy short-term trades, made money in 10 minutes and ran 🤡
🍵 The morning report just finished saying "Black Friday stay safe," but the market slapped me in the face again this morning. However, for these two "rule-breaking" trades today, I ran faster than a rabbit.
——————
First, a hot topic: #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Once tonight's non-farm payroll data is released, the interest rate hike expectations will be settled. Big money is all watching, and the market is extremely sensitive. Because the macro uncertainty is so high, I dare not hold heavy positions overnight and can only do ultra-short-term trades.
Look at this morning's extreme operations:
First trade (Fig.1): Opened a $SOON long at 0.4147 at 09:47, closed at 09:54 just 7 minutes later, pocketing +12.37% (earned 3.21U).
Second trade (Fig.2): Opened another long at 0.4105 at 10:11, closed at 10:21, gained +11.07% (earned 2.92U).
Holding positions for less than twenty minutes total, earned over 6U, just enough for a lunch.
Holding base positions in $BTC and $ETH as a keepsake.
——————
💡 Friday noon reflection:
Knowing well that the market tends to spike up and down before the non-farm payrolls, I still couldn’t resist opening trades. I really need to reflect.
But luckily, I learned from the morning report and strictly followed "quick in, quick out, no lingering."
Make a little money for groceries and run—that’s the best survival rule for "Black Friday." Don’t be greedy, don’t hold positions, protect your principal and safely get through the weekend.
💬 Brothers, the September non-farm payrolls will be released tonight. Are you going to stay out to avoid risk or go heavy to speculate?
Is my kind of "run in ten minutes" short-term trading extremely lacking in vision?
This afternoon, should I just close the software and rest, or keep watching the market? Share your trades in the comments, I’m open to advice! 👇
#SOON #OKX #TradingTips #Cryptocurrency #RetailTraderDiary
(Disclaimer: The above is only a personal trading review and does not constitute any investment advice. Contract trading is highly risky, please pay close attention to risk control.)
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 The year 2025 is the glorious year of Ethereum
The price rose from 1390 in April to 4900 in August
That year, for an ETH that everyone was against, the market started without any positive news, and negative news was actually intense; mocking ETH was the mainstream politically correct stance
Many people still don't understand why one must firmly buy in when the market is extremely pessimistic
We know that at the end of a bear market, there is a hidden crisis for the shorts
Because extreme bearishness leads to exhaustion of sell orders and a concentration of high-leverage short positions, a small rise will trigger large-scale short squeezes, thus starting a bull market
But at this time, you won't have time to react and chase the highs; right-side trading is simply unrealistic in the crypto world, so abandon that idea
Moreover, we find that at the beginning of every bull market, there is no good news, but the price keeps rising $BTC
$ETH
The non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30, which may cause increased market volatility. It is recommended to pay attention in advance.
BTC is currently still in an upward converging triangle pattern. The 8.52 area has completed the role reversal of support and resistance: a valid hold and volume breakout suggest the rebound is likely to continue; if it is blocked and falls back again, it is easy to return to the range for further consolidation.
The 1-hour candlestick chart shows a doji at 9 o'clock, a hammer at 10 o'clock, and a solid bullish candle just formed at 11 o'clock. If the 12 o'clock candle closes as a solid bullish candle above 8.52, this rebound can be considered initially stabilized.
In terms of volume and price, price is rising while volume is shrinking, indicating poor volume-price coordination and a divergence signal, so beware of a false breakout.
For trading, the 8.52–8.31 range can be seen as a consolidation box: consider long positions near the lower boundary on pullbacks, and short positions near the upper boundary; if there is a clear breakout and hold above the upper boundary, go long following the trend; if it is a false breakout and falls back into the box, follow the trend and go short. 【On-Chain Trading Update｜BTC】
Monitored address 0x0c61 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 85,406 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 242,983.49 USD
▪ Leverage: 2x
Note: This address has earned over 66,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +6.05% The valuation logic of $DOGE may be undergoing a change.
The expansion of payment scenarios like X Money and BitPay means the "circulation" story of DOGE is starting to heat up.
But the key is not just the number of transactions, but the retention rate.
Merchants sell DOGE as soon as they receive it → circulation increases, but it may not bring sustained demand.
Users and merchants willing to hold long-term → payments can truly convert into incremental demand.
So what’s worth watching for DOGE going forward is not just transaction volume, but the average wallet holding time and real payment retention.Happy National Day everyone!
$HYPE hasn't bounced back above ninety yet, so don't rush to look at one hundred.
88.72 has already dropped nearly 10% from the high of 98.04 on September 23.
I'm still not very optimistic at this level.
After all, it has fallen 4% in the past seven days, and the previous drop hasn't been recovered yet.
Let's treat 90 as an observation point first, to see if it can go up and hold this time.
For now, watch more and act less.
Don't think it's cheap just because it's far from the high.
$BICO has recovered a bit today.
0.02229, up 2.81% in one day.
But it has still fallen over the past seven days; this rebound hasn't made up for the previous losses.
So I don't plan to look too far ahead for now.
Rather than hoping for a few more points today, I want to see if it can hold tomorrow.
Let's wait for confirmation this time.
Saying the market is back just because it turned red for one day is still a bit premature.
$SUI has risen nearly 50% in a month, which is quite a lot.
But it basically hasn't risen in the past seven days; the morning quote was still at 1.181.
I won't expect the same growth rate as the previous month for the future gains.
Rising a lot doesn't necessarily mean it must fall, but I don't feel comfortable chasing it here.
For now, I'll take 1.20 as an observation point.
If it can break above and hold, I'll be more optimistic.
No need to rush in when the direction is still unclear just because you're afraid of missing out.Sepolia's success is only through the first public test
If Sepolia activates smoothly on October 6, what can be confirmed is that a set of clients continue to produce blocks, validate, and synchronize under the new rules in this testnet environment. It cannot alone prove that the mainnet will have no issues when facing higher value, more complex applications, and larger node scale, nor can it prove that all contracts have adapted to the new Gas pricing. After the upgrade, node participation, block propagation, builder connections, state access performance, and abnormal transaction handling still need to be observed. Test success is evidence of reduced risk, not a certificate of zero risk. Conversely, if a brief failure occurs, it is necessary to distinguish between configuration errors, single client defects, and protocol design issues; one error should not be taken as a failure of the entire roadmap. The long-term value of $ETH is built on a continuously improving and error-correcting network. Testnets allow failure, so the mainnet has a better chance of stability. What is truly worth celebrating is not the screen showing "activation complete," but that problems can be located, fixed, and not repeated in the next phase.
Upgrade quality depends on continuous observation, not a single successful screenshot, nor market pre-pricing.
A single smooth run is just the beginning; continuous operation is the credible evidence.$ARB
In the short term, ARB tends to show "weak oscillation after a surge," but the September rebound structure has not been broken yet.
Currently around $0.20, volume has decreased in recent days, and short-term momentum has clearly cooled; the key support is near $0.197, and if broken, the next observation point is around $0.179.
Key points:
* $0.197–0.20: Bullish lifeline; holding this may lead to oscillating rebound.
* $0.21–0.22: First resistance; only a firm break above this marks a short-term strength shift.
* $0.23–0.25: Previous dense lock-up/profit-taking zone.
* Breaking below $0.197: Bearish signal strengthens; watch $0.19 → $0.179.
* Current perpetual open interest is about $465M, significantly higher than spot volume, indicating heavy leverage positions prone to spikes up and down.
* About 92.65 million ARB tokens will unlock on October 16, adding short-term supply pressure.
I currently define the situation as: oscillation above $0.197, only a break above $0.22 shifts bias back to bullish; breaking below $0.197 means defense priority.
Contracts are not recommended to be heavily leveraged betting on direction near $0.20. If the 4H chart remains stable later, I will consider entering with a small position. Today I saw some data: one address slept for 15 years and 4 months, and just woke up.
20.43 BTC, mined in May 2011, when each coin was worth 3 to 4 dollars, spending less than 70 dollars in total. Today, waking up, it's worth 1.7 million dollars. It has multiplied over 20,000 times.
But it wasn’t sold. It was transferred to a new address, with a fee less than 1 dollar, and didn’t enter any exchange.
15 years. When he got it, Bitcoin was still unknown. He witnessed the surges and crashes of 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2024, but never moved a single coin. What about us? We hold for three days and already think we are value investors.
What annoys me most is that hardly anyone is discussing this in the comment section. A wallet that slept for 15 years woke up; in the past, this would have flooded the feed all day. Now, people are too lazy to even look. Liquidations, cut losses, trapped positions happen every day—who still cares if an ancient address moved?
Why do you think he didn’t sell? Maybe he thought it wasn’t high enough yet, maybe he simply forgot he had this wallet. Or maybe he’s just used to holding and doesn’t know what to do with it.
Holding something for 15 years and watching it multiply 20,000 times. This sounds like a myth now, but in the early crypto days, some people really did this.
Do you have coins you’ve held for over a year? Let’s talk in the comments.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH These days finally have some hope! I kept losing playing altcoins a few days ago, but BTC is really strong! 😭
---
【Finally took profit!】
Looking at this closing screenshot, my eyes are about to get red:
I held on stubbornly when it dropped to 83,123 yesterday without cutting losses, and now at 85,400 I successfully took profit. This wave was really tough!
【Reviewing the past few days】
Earlier I played ONE, repeatedly stabbed by manipulative whales, lost over two thousand; played XDP, it crashed right after entering, lost several hundred again.
Watching the candlesticks every day, my mood fluctuated up and down, and the profit was less than the fees. Especially that damn ONE coin, it went down for three days straight, not winning once, which made me angrily give up.
But today's BTC trade restored my confidence.
It steadily climbed, the pullbacks were shallow, unlike those altcoins that often give you a "fakeout".
The moving averages are in a bullish alignment, price broke previous highs, and every pullback was a chance to enter. No need to guess the whales' intentions.
After all the twists and turns, BTC is still the most reliable.
【Plan going forward】
After taking profit on this trade, I will calm down and not rush to open new positions.
If BTC pulls back near 84,500-84,800, I will consider buying more, targeting 86,000.
But this time I will remember: only trade BTC, no altcoins.
$BTC
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Damn, BTC has surged to 85K again.
I was just saying in my last post to go long with a small position,
this wave really did rise 😂
But now looking at 85K,
my hands are itching again.
I've been waiting for that drop these past few days,
but the price is slowly pushing up instead.
The more this kind of grinding upward trend goes on,
the more I want to try a short.
Short a little first.
Set the stop loss properly,
keep the position controlled.
If it really drops, that would be great,
if it keeps surging up, I'll accept it.
This time let's see if 85K can really hold.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 🚩Hello, friends, I am Chao Ge🤝
This wave of $BTC directly surged from 83,000 to above 85,500, truly a pillar holding up the sky. The whale is determined to trigger a short squeeze this time.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the moving averages are perfectly aligned bullishly, with MA5 at 84,575, MA10 at 84,143, and the MACD opening wider above the zero line, showing extremely strong bullish momentum. But from the 15-minute short-term view, the price is seriously deviating from MA5, with a large divergence rate, indicating a strong need for a short-term pullback and shakeout.
On the news front, the IMF approved $139 million for El Salvador, and Peter Todd from the mining community has also joined MARA. Both fundamentals and ecosystem are improving.
I think in terms of trading, never blindly chase highs. Wait for a pullback to the support zone between 84,800 and 85,000 to stabilize before entering. Set your stop loss near the 4-hour MA5 at 84,575, and target the previous high at 87,399. Control your impulses, wait for the pullback to go long, don’t stand guard at the peak!
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
$ETH $ZEC #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
The risk of escalation between the US and Iran rises again, Brent crude returns to $100
On October 1, Brent crude surged 4.37% to $102.31 per barrel, WTI rose 2.71% to $92.87. Three overlapping factors: a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit and caught fire by an unidentified flying object, at least three tankers were attacked this week; the Pentagon is deploying a third carrier strike group and nearly 10,000 troops to the Middle East; Trump said in an interview with Time that after the midterm elections, "it is possible" to increase strikes against Iran.
But the real contradiction behind the oil price rise is a structural gap. JPMorgan data shows Middle East crude oil exports have recovered to 98% of pre-war levels, but refined product exports are only 58% of pre-war levels, with diesel and jet fuel supply tightness unresolved in the short term. US diesel prices remain at a historic high of $6.40 per gallon.
BTC is currently around 83,821, resistance above at 85,500, support below at 83,000. Positions should set stop-loss below 82,500; empty positions wait for a pullback to 83,000-83,500 to stabilize before entering. Geopolitical risk heating up combined with renewed inflation expectations, chasing highs is not cost-effective.
What do you think about this wave of oil prices? Let's chat in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC October 2: Real-time reminder: Control your position!
💥💥💥💥$AAVE pulled back near $171 this morning. After giving a chance in the planned buy zone of $155–160 yesterday, no chasing today. More importantly, OI has risen again to about 475,000 contracts, indicating funds are crowded again. The fundamentals still place it in the top tier of DeFi, but now it’s a "buy point already given," not a time to get excited and chase above $171.
💥💥💥$LINK is around $14.38 this morning, still in a relatively comfortable position. OI is about 9.9 million contracts, clearly lower than the recent high above 10.6 million contracts a few days ago, and funding is not high. $14.1–14.5 remains the first tier, $13.4–13.8 the second tier. Institutional finance, RWA, and cross-chain interoperability remain unchanged, but the most important thing today is that both price and leverage have pulled back from peak levels.
💥💥💥 $HYPE’s structure is a bit more comfortable than yesterday. Around $87.5 this morning, funding has slightly turned negative, but OI remains about 4.3 million contracts. The real selling pressure after unlocking has not turned into the previously feared "one-time dump," but it hasn’t been fully absorbed either. $83–86 remains the primary observation zone, $80–82 is more comfortable; no chasing rebounds, continue to watch if unlocked addresses keep transferring coins to CEX. $Scrolling through messages tonight, I came across two pieces that are quite interesting when put together.
Broadcom is giving Anthropic a loan of up to $42 billion, specifically to rent Broadcom's own chips. Anthropic immediately scheduled a massive IPO before Thanksgiving, potentially starting the week of November 9. On one hand, borrowing hundreds of billions; on the other, the IPO window is already lined up—money is really pouring into the AI sector.
Meanwhile, on the crypto side, NEAR Intents was attacked, losing over $3.8 million, and NEAR briefly dropped more than 8%. The project team said the vulnerability has been fixed and promised full compensation. Deposits and withdrawals will be suspended for about 12 hours, and on-chain tracking is ongoing.
The Fed's stance hasn't changed; Jefferson said the next rate hike "may require more time," and Kashkari followed up by emphasizing the pressure to raise rates. The hawkish tone hasn't softened, just delayed by half a beat.
My rough take: Even if the road is congested, the orders still need to be fulfilled; but if the car isn't in good condition, don't hit the gas yet. Expensive money is one thing, but an unlocked door is another.
Just keeping this in mind as an observation point.
Personal notes, not investment advice.Optimistic about interest rate cuts, optimistic about the crypto space.
The core logic behind the Fed's interest rate cuts is not simply to save itself, but to first use high oil prices + high interest rates to complete a "global stress screening," and then achieve targeted harvesting through rate cuts, which is distinctly different from the traditional textbook logic of rate cuts.
1. The special "bear first, then burst" rate cut logic
Core argument:
1. Bear the dual pressure first: The U.S. is currently burdened simultaneously by high oil prices, high interest rates, and high debt. Continuing to raise rates directly would have its policy effect offset by inflation driven up by high oil prices, which would instead drag itself down first. Therefore, it chooses "not to resolve Iran, allowing oil prices to remain high," using high oil prices to transmit inflation pressure outward.
2. Wait for external burst first: Under the combination of high oil prices + high interest rates, global dollar demand is pushed up. Capital will continue to flow out from emerging markets and highly indebted economies lacking dollars. Asset chains and debt chains in some economies will break first. The U.S. completes the layout of "waiting for the target groups to bear the pressure first and fail" during this process.
3. Finally cut rates to harvest: When external pressure reaches a critical point, the U.S. will launch large-scale rate cuts, releasing massive liquidity, using low-cost dollars to bottom-fish the core global assets that have already been hammered down.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen from about 4.1% at the beginning of the year to 5.25% now, an increase of over 100 basis points.
According to traditional macro views, risk assets should be under pressure, but the US stock market is still in an upward trend, which only shows that AI is indeed very strong.
Currently, $BTC has a stronger correlation with the US stock market; the crypto space has not developed a new narrative, and this round of gains is more due to the US stock market.
Tonight, the September non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate will be released, which should be a new turning point.
If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, the 10-year US Treasury yield may attempt the 5.34% high again.
Brent crude oil has risen above 100 again.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $ETH $BTC $ZEC
#September non-farm payrolls announced tonight, interest rate hike expectations become the focus
Variant Fund investment partner: The crypto market bottom may have appeared in July, three types of assets will benefit from market recovery. Variant Fund investment partner Alana Levin stated in her Q4 2026 market reflections that the crypto market bottom most likely appeared at some point in July. She wrote in early July that the bottom seemed near, at which time Bitcoin was $59,000, Ethereum was $1,600, and ZEC was $420. She said the question has shifted to whether the bull market is truly starting or a false rally, and which projects benefit most in the early bull market, assuming the market is in the early stage of a new crypto bull run.
Levin said the growing consensus is that marginal funds are most likely to flow to protocols that serve as stores of value as money, and protocols that can generate income. She believes Bitcoin is the dominant asset for digital value storage currently, and other competing assets will be valued according to their market cap relative to Bitcoin’s market cap and its changes. For income-generating protocols, she expects investors to examine whether income comes from crypto-native activities (like Pump) or traditional financial activities (like Hyperliquid), whether income persists during market downturns, and profit margins; projects with exposure to real-world assets and stablecoins, expected to attract institutional users, and still led by founders after passing through bear markets, are more likely to receive higher multiples. Citibank bullish on whales dumping wildly! Staking black swan fermenting, are BTC and ETH hanging by a thread?
1. Market Status: Weak and stagnant, bulls powerless
① On the 4-hour chart, both BTC and ETH are heavily suppressed below the moving averages, with volume sharply shrinking.
② BTC's KDJ is dulled at a high level, ETH's momentum is weak. Bulls lack strength to counterattack, the market is stuck in a suffocating narrow range, awaiting a breakout.
2. Capital Battle: Institutions and whales diverge
① Citibank loudly raises target prices, Saylor keeps buying, Q3 gains are impressive, long-term faith remains.
② But reality is harsh: ETF ends continuous gains and turns to net outflows, a 2016 ancient whale cashes out over $400 million. Profit-taking at highs causes huge capital divergence.
3. Fatal Risks: Ecological black swan and macro pressure
① ETH hit hard! MetaMask security incident triggers massive validator exit, social sentiment hits rock bottom, Ripple's market cap even overtakes.
② Large sell walls hang above BTC, macro-wise US Treasury yields remain high, short-term recovery is difficult.
Core Summary:
Long-term on the left, short-term pain on the right. Institutions are painting the picture, whales are cashing out. Put away fantasies of quick riches, strictly control positions, and endure this tearing washout period!
$BTC $ETH #Sisters, you are right, if you don't have enough courage, you can't make money.
I want to earn enough for an LV bag, so I have to keep rolling my positions.
I'm ready to listen to you and start rolling my positions. But I won't do it now; I checked the K-line.
Why not roll now? Because the $ZEC price has already dropped to 1334, falling from 1656, with a floating profit yield of 971%.
If I chase a short position at this level, where should I set the stop loss?
There is resistance at 1340 and 1350 above. If it suddenly spikes up, and I roll my positions poorly, turning profits into losses, it would be counterproductive.
The real opportunity to roll positions is to wait for it to rebound near 1380, confirm it can't break through, and then add to the short position.
At that time, the stop loss can be set above 1420, with downside targets at 1300 or even 1250, making the risk-reward ratio worthwhile.
At this position now, hold the current positions and don't rush to act.
The trend is still downward, MACD is below the zero line, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and 1305 was just tested once below.
As long as there is no volume surge with violent upward movement, the bearish logic remains unchanged.
This time, I won't rush to roll; I'll wait for a better position.
$BTC
$ETH
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $QUANT This wave is finally done washing out, right? Dropped straight from 313 to 249, quite a few points in one day 😇😇The significance of light node verification is to allow trust to grow independently of hard drive capacity.
Ordinary users find it difficult to store the entire historical data of $ETH, but this does not mean they must fully trust remote services. The direction of light nodes and cryptographic proofs is to enable devices to verify critical states with fewer resources, rather than outsourcing all judgments to a single interface provider.
If a wallet only reads results returned by a single node, the user experience may be convenient, but it could be affected by incorrect data, censorship, or service interruptions. The lighter the verification capability, the more devices can independently check, thus decentralizing the network's trust surface. It may not make transactions faster, but it reduces the number of people users must trust.
Light verification does not mean reducing security requirements to zero. Devices still need to obtain enough node responses, check proofs, and handle network isolation scenarios. After reducing resources, the verification logic must be clearer and cannot degrade into ordinary interface queries.
Only when verification is made light enough can wallets upgrade from "reading others' answers" to "checking the answers given by others themselves."
True large-scale adoption should not require everyone to store the entire history, nor should it require everyone to blindly trust servers. $BTC Don't chase the highs. After nine consecutive ETF inflows, yesterday was the first time money was pulled out. Also, the rate hike expectations have shifted to December, and the current sentiment is somewhat optimistic, so there will likely be fluctuations. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
1. The most solid buyers have taken a breather; the infrastructure buying that fueled nine consecutive inflows has stopped, and before the weekend, no one is willing to take over. Naturally, no one is lifting the sideways market that has lasted six days.
2. CME currently shows a 75.1% chance of no rate change in October, with the hike pushed directly to December, effectively giving risk assets a one-month reprieve.
3. The liquidation data is unusually clean: less than $7 million cleared across the entire market in 24 hours, leverage was unwound before the non-farm payrolls. Tonight at 20:30 is the September non-farm payrolls; strong data will hit the market, weak data will lift it — the direction hinges on this one event.
Don't chase highs before tonight's non-farm payrolls; keep positions below 50% before the data is released. The market funds did not extend the bulls' life. ETH is stuck at the overlapping resistance zone of 0.618 and 2707, with four-hour volume continuously shrinking. The buying around 2718 looks more like retail investors catching the dip, not whales actively accumulating. Large on-chain transfers show net outflows in the resistance zone; this batch of funds did not chase longs above 2730 but continued to place short defenses.
I took the opportunity between orders to stuff half a compressed biscuit into my mouth, eyes still fixed on the liquidation chart. Above 2730, there is a large buildup of short stop losses and breakout chasing liquidity, while the dense long liquidation zone is around 2650 below. This structure's sharp pull-up will only trigger stop losses for shorts above; first sweeping the leverage near 2650 downwards before a rebound better fits the market maker's cost logic.
Aggressive shorts can enter in batches between 2724 and 2732, with stop loss at 2745 and take profit between 2660 and 2652. If the price first plunges to 2650 without breaking it, then consider reversing to a short-term long, but only after volume confirms recovery above 2672; do not catch a falling knife.
$ETH
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在
@OKX星球 XRP/ADA/ATOM whale divergence: XRP whales added ~500M tokens in 5 days (~$745M), ETF inflows 14 of 15 weeks.
ADA whales sold 90M ADA (~$22.5M) since Sep 20, futures OI down 9% to $1.81B.
ATOM whales hold 60/40 long, 80% supply in strong hands.
XRP ~$1.49 (resistance $1.58), ADA ~$0.249 (support $0.24),
ATOM ~$1.76 (wall $1.84). Your read?
$XRP $ADA $ATOM The market was really strong today, with BTC pushing all the way above 85,300. Looking at the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, it's all bullish alignment. Honestly, my first reaction was the itch to jump in again.
But after glancing at the 15-minute chart, I forced myself to pull back.
Right now, the 85,300 level is quite awkward. Upwards, there's resistance between 85,500 and 85,600; downwards, there's 1-hour support at 84,600. Chasing longs in this middle zone means setting a stop loss of 700 dollars, and the first target just hits the previous high. The risk-reward ratio is seriously off, a typical "trash time."
If this were a few days ago, I definitely would have FOMO'd in, then gotten stopped out by wicks on both sides, then opened shorts at the top, ending up getting hit from both ends. The 0.1U tuition I paid on that BTC short a couple of days ago really woke me up.
The review over the past few days led to today's extreme restraint:
1. Macro direction: 1H/4H are bullish, so never go against the trend to short.
2. Micro signals: Never open trades recklessly in the middle zone. Wait for a pullback to 84,600 to go long, or wait for volume to confirm a break and hold above 85,600 before chasing.
3. Risk-reward veto: If the first target hits resistance, just close the chart and don't trade, even if the king himself shows up.
The longer you trade, the clearer it becomes that controlling your hands is the hardest part. When there’s no signal, staying flat is the top-level move.
$BTC $XRP is bearish in the short term, with a 24h increase of 0.58% unable to support this rebound. The main positions liquidated today were longs, with the liquidation amount of longs being several times that of shorts, and the bears were almost unscathed. The price closed higher, but shorts were not squeezed out, indicating this rise was not driven by a short squeeze. On the dip, leveraged long holders were washed out first, and the remaining chips naturally rebounded. Leverage is exiting, with no new entries. Trading volume far exceeds open interest, turnover is fast, positions are low, and funds are short-term in and out; no one is willing to hold overnight. The fee rate remains slightly positive, just as background information. This matches the chart structure: lower highs, rebound with shrinking volume, and long fuel was already burned in the last dip. When retesting previous lows, there is a lack of support, increasing the probability of a breakdown. Conditions to turn bullish: price stands above 1.5099 and holds, accompanied by concentrated short liquidations, indicating forced covering. At that point, the bearish view is invalidated. My trading plan tracking:
I continue to hold my $BTC long position with a stop loss set at 829.
As long as the 828 support is not broken, I will continue to hold until 860-880 before considering taking profits.
Reason for holding: Currently, it is still oscillating in a box range between 828-850, and it has already risen to the resistance near 850. To prevent a false breakout followed by a drop, a stop loss is definitely necessary.
Secondly, if it breaks through 852 with a surge, there is a chance to reach 860-880 before a pullback.
In summary, I hold my BTC long position with a stop loss, and there are only two possible outcomes:
1. Stop loss triggered, small loss, my cost is around 830.
2. Big profit if it really rises to 860-880.
This means the risk-reward ratio is quite favorable. I just need to strictly follow the plan and no longer worry about the final result, which I can accept. $ETH $SOL $BTC Every time I see liquidations playing short, the price drops, but have you ever thought about how shorts could possibly be fully liquidated?
At any price, there will be people opening short positions; after liquidating one batch, there will be a new batch entering.
So, continuing to watch the liquidation map to predict prices is unreliable.
From previous multiple bearish news events where the price still rose, it shows that news can no longer price Bitcoin!
Focusing closely on capital flow is now the mainstream approach.
Currently, capital is mainly flowing in, but it has slowed down; if capital inflow stops increasing, the space for further price rises will narrow.
In the long term, the price will still rise, but in the short term, it may pull back due to capital flow.
The reason I say this is based on evidence.
The Fed's expected rate hikes and soaring US Treasury yields.
These could cause large funds to reduce Bitcoin holdings and increase bond holdings; if this had no impact on Bitcoin, that would be impossible.
The key is whether, when funds flow out, there is larger incremental capital to take over.
Also, the price has risen too much in the early stage; recently, there have been reports of some institutions reducing holdings, and capital has started to take profits and exit, with more possibly following.
Therefore, in the short term, to continue breaking through, a very large amount of capital is needed, which is not cost-effective for the main players.
If there is still a main upward wave, I only see it near the previous high of 87600, and I won't be too bullish. 📝Early Bull Market Positioning Strategy | Focus on Core Holdings, Supplement with Swing Trades
In the early bull market, volatility is normal, and sharp drops are tests. It's more regrettable to hold on to a wrong position than to misjudge the direction.
Five core key assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC, DOGE. These are not emotion-driven speculative coins but foundational Web3 assets with solid consensus and ongoing ecosystem operations. Once chips are sold off, you can only chase at a high price when the main rally arrives.
Three practical steps:
1. Defend Core Holdings: Do not easily adjust your main positions to avoid missing out. Core holdings are your staple, determining whether you can fully capitalize on this market cycle.
2. Swing Trading: Use flexible positions to sell high and buy low to reduce cost basis; realize some profits as reserve funds for sharp drops to ease holding anxiety. Swing trading is just a side dish, not to be prioritized over core holdings.
3. Adjust Positions on Dips: Sharp drops mostly come from panic selling and profit-taking. If fundamentals remain intact, gradually shift to stronger assets in batches. Avoid going all-in at once; reserve buffer space to withstand volatility.
Remember three principles: don’t blindly cut losses during declines, don’t impulsively chase highs during rises, and keep reserved positions and patience. The market is not decided by a single candlestick; the core is to hold chips through volatility and stay rational during sharp drops.
Yingzhen | Follow the trend without blind obedience, resist against the trend without stubbornness, prioritize discipline, and patiently wait for the market to play out. Went long and won a position these two days. The most common question in private messages is: Since you were right, why not add more?
My answer has always been simple—low-frequency large bets, focusing on "low-frequency" and "when to act," not "pressing up after winning." One of the most dangerous pitfalls in poker is called "winning and expanding the pot": when luck is on your side, you feel invincible and turn what should be small bets into big pots, only to lose it all in a comeback.
I only add bets in one situation: when the market gives a new, independent reason to enter, not because I already have unrealized profits. Unrealized profits are never a reason to add positions; they are just a number on the ledger.
Controlling your hands is more likely to keep you alive for the next round than just being right about the direction.