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Now BTC is at 83847.6, should you go long or short? The bulls say: the trend is bullish, if it breaks 84000 then look to 85000, if not now then when? The bears say: 84000 is a clear resistance, you should short at resistance, chasing highs will get you trapped. I used to be indecisive at times like this, switching between long and short, getting slapped back and forth, losing 200,000 U. Now my answer is: do nothing, wait for direction. Go long if it breaks 84000, go long at 83000 support, watch the game in between. Small position of 5000 U, no holding through losses. Trading is not about who predicts better, it's about who makes fewer mistakes. $BTC #特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI Everyone is scared after $SOON dropped from 0.56 to around 0.45.
I’m doing the opposite. 😈
Went long around 0.4544 with 2x leverage, betting this is a shakeout rather than the end of the trend.
First target: 0.48 → 0.50.
If 0.40 breaks, I’ll rethink the setup.
Meanwhile, $ZEC is still holding strong after my long near 1146. $TRUMP is also on watch, but I’m not chasing yet.
You panic, I’ll take the risk. 😂
$SOON $ZEC $TRUMP $BTC
#IranUSDealStandoff #
#TokenizedStocksOnAave
#AMDWorldLab#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
Interest rate hike expectations may be delayed. I think whether the rate hike happens now or not will no longer have much impact on $BTC and $ETH.
Last month's rate hike was different, with prices rising rapidly.
A rate hike does not necessarily mean prices will fall.
Similarly, a rate cut does not necessarily mean prices will rise.
Last night, when the PCE data was released, the market first rallied then fell,
indicating that the current market sentiment is bearish.
Most news is just to further amplify the current trend, not to reverse the market.
Market sentiment always outweighs news, and the big trend is unstoppable.
The crypto space is all about consensus; once consensus forms, the market quickly converges in one direction. Currently, mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and $ZEC are still oscillating within a range, with bulls and bears still battling.
When this sideways phase ends and a direction is chosen, that will be the time to charge.
What we need to do is wait, wait for the next trend.
At present, the forecast is that the bulls' charge is weak, and the market intends to move downwards. Small positions can short high, but once this consolidation phase ends and a direction emerges, be sure to follow the trend.U Sister 9.29 Thursday $ETH Strategy
Shorting strategy:
Wait for the price to rebound to the 2740-2760 resistance zone, enter a short position when the 4H candle closes showing signs of stagnation, a long upper shadow, or volume failing to keep up.
Stop loss: above 2785
First target: 2670
Second target: 2655
On the 4-hour timeframe, the previous high at 2806 faced resistance and pulled back. Currently, this is a range-bound recovery after a high-level decline. This rebound is just a retracement repair, not a trend reversal. Current price is 2705.58, MACD indicator DIFF has just slightly crossed above DEA, the red bars show weak volume increase, bullish momentum is weak, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. The 2740-2760 zone above is a key resistance area with concentrated chips; this was the previous decline platform, so selling pressure will concentrate here during the rebound.
Overall, it is a wide-range oscillation pattern. Do not chase shorts prematurely; wait for confirmation of resistance on the rebound before participating. In a choppy market, the probability of sweeping back and forth is high. Be sure to strictly use stop losses and prioritize watching without signals.Do you still remember what the BTC trend was like when it last approached 84,000? It directly spiked down, trapping a bunch of people who chased the highs. Now it’s at 83,847.6, just one step away from 84,000. Will history repeat itself? Last time I chased the high at 84,000 and lost 200,000 U, a vivid memory. So this time I’ve learned my lesson: I won’t chase longs near 84,000; instead, I’ll lightly short with a stop loss at 84,100 and a target at 83,500. Opening a position with 5,000 U, no holding through losses, must have a stop loss. Of course, history won’t simply repeat; if it really breaks through, I’ll admit my mistake, stop loss, and reverse to go long. $BTC #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Big Brother Maji's collective recovery of the $150 million large positions, the pattern remains, keep holding.
Latest update, the total exposure has reached $150 million, the status is clearly refreshed compared to before. The two major mainstream targets firmly hold the profit zone, even HYPE's losses have significantly narrowed, finally everyone is recovering.
Breaking down the changes in the three positions:
BTC｜369 coins · 40X full position
Slightly increased to 369 coins, opened at 83799.60, current floating profit +53,100 U. Liquidation price 70930.78, the safety buffer is still very sufficient, still the ballast stone of the entire position.
ETH｜35,000 coins · 25X full position
Still the core profit contributor of the account, floating profit +158,000 U. Cost 2675.61, firmly above the cost line. As long as Ethereum does not experience a deep pullback, the overall confidence remains.
HYPE｜206,000 coins · 10X full position
The only one still at a floating loss, but the loss has shrunk significantly from over 800,000 to -136,200 U, the recovery speed is quite impressive. The base position was not cut, and was slightly increased to continue betting on a rebound.The opponent pushed the king's pawn to e5, seemingly aggressive, but in fact giving me the d5 square—$ETC's 5.92% rise in the last 24 hours is just this bluffing pawn advance.
I've counted the board. The short-term RSI reads 65.6, the long-term only 51.1, a typical piece disconnection: the fast horse has charged to the front line, while the rear rook and bishop are still stuck on the baseline. The short-term Bollinger Bands have pushed the price to the 80% position, with only 1.4% ceiling left to the upper band; the mid-term is even more extreme, at 86% range position, with only 1.2% breathing room above. When the pawn lines on two timeframes are both pressed to the edge, any grandmaster knows—this is not an offense, it's a hanging pawn waiting to be counter-pulled.
My candidate move is to sacrifice a piece to seize the center: place a short at around 7.38, which means giving the opponent 6.0% more space above the current price, letting them burn their last initiative on this square. The mid-term target is to first reclaim 6.48, a 6.9% profit down from the current price; the main target aims at 6.27, a full 10.0% harvest distance. As for stop loss, I set the defense line at 8.10—leaving a 16.3% tolerance from the current price, a concession necessary in the endgame, losing one square doesn't mean losing the whole game, provided you don't exchange your rook for a hostage.
A true chess player never counts pieces in the midgame, but counts squares in the endgame. In the current position, the bulls' pawn chain is overextended, supply lines stretched, and defense zones full of holes. What I need to do is let them exhaust their ammo in the uptrend, then exchange one pawn to take out their entire diagonal.
📉 Short:
Entry: 7.38 (current price +6.0%)
Take Profit 1: 6.48 (-6.9%)
Take Profit 2: 6.27 (-10.0%)
Stop Loss: 8.10 (+16.3%)
This is not a prediction, this is a calculated killing move—the opponent's next move, I wrote it twenty moves ago. #strategyplaybook$ZEC's most expensive baton handoff: 1,695.50
ZEC surged wildly from the bottom to 1,695.50, only to be knocked back to reality by the red resistance zone
What you really should focus on isn’t the price, but these three massive volumes:
1.122B → 604.9M → 902.2M
The peaks of holdings/trades align perfectly with the price top — this isn’t a breakout, it’s a baton handoff. When the fuel tank is full, the only way is down
Even more exciting is the long-short structure:
- Retail investors are overwhelmingly bearish: Binance accounts 0.65, OKX 0.83, large account numbers 0.64
- But the long-short ratio of large accounts is 1.28 — the big money is going long
Retail is short, real money is buying
24h liquidations at 9.69 million, shorts liquidated 5.38 million > longs 4.31 million, the low-level rebound is squeezing shorts, but volume isn’t large, panic hasn’t peaked yet
Three iron rules:
1. Massive volume means a market top
2. Those who leverage with the trend end up as fuel for others
3. The red box at the top is not support, it’s a tombstone
Recommendations:
Don’t chase shorts (don’t pit your account against the capital side)
Don’t heavily bottom-fish (the second dip is still coming)
Wait to break back above the dense trading upper edge + holdings rise simultaneously before scaling in; decisively exit if it breaks below the horizontal lower edge $AKE Folks, listen to my advice, something's off with AKE's chart.
Damn it! The 0.0315 level was forcibly painted as a fake breakout by manipulative whales, volume can't keep up, a classic bull trap shakeout. Purely technically speaking, the resistance at 0.033 was tested three times and rejected each time, smart money has already quietly slipped away.
I watched all night, this pattern is exactly the same as the previous slow decline, don't catch a falling knife. A rebound near 0.0315 is a shorting opportunity, target first 0.028, if broken then 0.0266.
Don't rush to go all in, try with 20% position first, stop loss at 0.0332. For those who want to follow, place your orders stealthily in the token card below, keep it low-key.
The above is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Contract leverage carries extremely high risk, please manage your position size yourself, profits and losses are your own responsibility.
👇👇👇Think about BTC at 60000, think about SOL at 80, think about WLD at 0.3, it hasn't been that long ago, so holding on is the key Yesterday, a floor slab was just inspected and accepted; the rebar spacing deviation was three millimeters. The construction team wanted to cover it up with plaster. I immediately ordered them to chisel it all out and redo it. $ENA's current structure is like that layer of plastered-off mortar—smooth on the surface, but hollow underneath.
In 24 hours, it dropped 1.37%, which looks like a light drizzle. But when you spread out the blueprint and look at the cross-section: the short-term Bollinger Band position is only 3%, the price is almost crawling along the lower band, with only 0.1% margin from the lower band. This is not support; this is a cantilever structure end with no rebar. The short-term RSI is 30.1, the long-term RSI is 51.6; comparing these two data points makes it clear—short-term under pressure, long-term stable, a typical local settlement of the raft slab, the overall foundation has not collapsed yet.
My judgment is: this is not a collapse, but backfill compaction. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 14%, with a 1.4% buffer margin from the lower band, indicating there is a gravel gradation at the bottom, not a silt layer.
The construction plan is as follows:
📈 Long
Entry: 0.08 (current price -2.8%, i.e., after settlement is in place and pouring)
Take Profit 1: 0.09 (+5.1%, first ring beam elevation)
Take Profit 2: 0.09 (+8.3%, main structure topping out)
Stop Loss: 0.07 (-13.1%, critical value for foundation pit support)
Why set the Entry 2.8% lower? Because a truly stable bearing platform is never poured at the highest elevation. What I want is the moment the concrete lands on the cushion layer—the price hugging the lower band, short-term RSI pressed near 30; this is the position where bearing capacity is most saturated. Entering at a high price is like stacking load on an uncured slab, which will crack.
The take profit zones are set at +5.1% and +8.3%, corresponding to the mid-term Bollinger Band upper edge at 8.3%, this beam. Don’t be greedy; in structural mechanics, the most dangerous thing is not excessive load but eccentric compression. Remove the formwork when it reaches the line.
Stop loss is set at -13.1%. Some say this margin is too wide, but you must understand: foundation pit excavation allows deformation but not failure. 13.1% is the limit displacement of that temporary support; if it breaks, it means the foundation is not soft soil but that no piles were driven at all.
My rating for this building is: C30 concrete, compliant reinforcement, construction allowed, but must wait for settlement stabilization before entering the site. After the $MU earnings report came out, it neither rose nor fell. Although it is not far from the previous high, yesterday the Nasdaq plunged at the close, yet funds flowed into the semiconductor sector. The more important thing is how it performs after today's opening.
PCE met expectations, reducing the probability of inflation-driven rate hikes, combined with falling oil prices, but the Nasdaq did not show much reaction, and US Treasury yields remained unchanged.
I still feel that the rebound cycle is nearing its final stage. The rebound has been oscillating around this level, with little arbitrage space, so only short-term trades are possible, which I am a bit reluctant to do.
Waiting for a higher probability opportunity to open short positions. If the Nasdaq does not break the previous high and Micron remains stagnant, then it's time to increase short positions.
Open a small short position on Hynix first to see the direction of this wave. Set a 10-point stop loss if it follows a trend. Waiting for specific nodes, as the current movement is indeed too chaotic.
As long as TEM's trend is not broken, I will hold on a bit longer.
Going forward, I will no longer do short-term arbitrage, only trend trading.
The direction will emerge.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The harsh truth behind the "positive" PCE: a carefully orchestrated "double kill" scheme
Using the favorable PCE data, the market is first pumped to trigger short squeezes, then smashed to kill longs, leaving nothing behind.
This might be the most accurate portrayal of the current crypto market. While the market is still immersed in the illusion of positive data, the chart delivers the harshest response: BTC quickly retreats to around 83400, SOL even breaks below the critical 118 support, and tokens like ZEC and SUI are all in deep red.
Why can't the solid positive of SOL ETF's weekly net inflow of 188 million move the market? The answer lies in the macro-level "ceiling" that firmly suppresses the market's upward space. U.S. Treasury yields remain persistently high, absorbing a large amount of risk capital; coupled with the black swan event of Bitget's 388 million theft, big money is fleeing frantically out of risk aversion.
Now, less than a month remains before the end-of-month FOMC meeting and the Mt.Gox compensation window opens. In the face of such huge uncertainty, any technical rebound appears fragile.
The current strategy is simple: don't catch a falling knife, don't hold positions. In the crypto market, all the good news often turns into bad news. Survival is more important than anything. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 🚨 Big Brother Maji is sitting on a $157M LONG — and ALL THREE positions are currently underwater.
The latest full-position data is out, and this is getting interesting.
BTC, ETH, and HYPE are all in the red, with the entire $157M long portfolio under pressure.
BTC: 455 BTC, 40x leverage
Entry: $83,748.20 | Unrealized PnL: -$316.8K | Liquidation: $77,184.39
ETH: 36,000 ETH, 25x leverage
Entry: $2,674.24 | Unrealized PnL: -$348.3K | Liquidation: $2,590.08
#DailyOrbit "Third Sister, The First Day of October"
Ethereum stayed flat all day, short positions' floating profits slowly giving back, coffee cooling by my side, anxiety burning hot. Still some distance from stop loss, I choose to wait a bit longer.
Glanced at the funding rates, longs remain crowded, rates absurdly positive. The market never lacks brave people, it lacks those who survive long. The first day of October, will I be repeatedly harvested again? Unwilling to accept it.
Reviewed the pattern: the October after halving, 2017 rose, 2021 rose, but 2025 might stall. History has given both sweets and knives. The market won't be gentle just because "the cycle is like this."
But I still lean bearish. Only this time, I tell myself to keep light positions, scale in batches, and keep reserves. No matter how clear the quarterly direction is, you need capital to hold until the moment of realization. Those who go all-in betting on one side often fall to false breakouts.
Whether October will be profitable, no one knows. But I know, not leaving the table means there is a next round. Tonight I don't seek huge profits, just to avoid blowing up. Closing the laptop, closing my eyes—opportunities are always there, capital is not.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 ZEC: The Psychological Battle of Up-and-Down Sweeps and Value Reassessment
The current $ZEC trend is a classic example of an "up-and-down sweep" market. The price neither chooses to break upwards nor experiences panic selling; instead, it oscillates repeatedly within a range. The logic behind this is simple: the market makers are engaging in psychological warfare. This indecisive movement aims to trap both the buyers chasing the rally and the sellers cutting losses, wearing down and clearing out the uncommitted positions through repeated fluctuations.
However, beyond the market noise and battles, the fundamental logic is quietly undergoing a qualitative change.
Grayscale research head Zach Pandl recently pointed out that although ZEC surged from $60 to over $1500 in the past year, its valuation has not yet reached its ceiling. A key data point is that ZEC's market cap as a percentage of BTC's market cap has risen from less than 0.1% a year ago to about 1.5%. Grayscale believes that as long as Zcash can maintain its absolute advantage in privacy features, there remains huge potential for market share expansion in the future.
Meanwhile, technical positives are also building momentum. The NU7 upgrade testnet is about to launch, signaling a new round of iterations in network performance and privacy protection mechanisms.
The current consolidation may well be the market's last "deep squat" before digesting these long-term positives. When the psychological battle ends, value will ultimately return. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $ADA is up +3.31% in 24 hours, but the price has reached a position where neither bulls nor bears can easily add more.
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are relatively strong, with the current volume at 0.94 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, indicating activity close to normal. Consistent direction does not mean unlimited space; the closer to key levels, the more important subsequent support becomes.
Current price is 0.253, about 4.58% away from the 1-hour support at 0.2414, and about 1.54% from resistance at 0.2569. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 0.2569 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it breaks below 0.2414, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.2389. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.2596 is currently just a distant reference, not a preset target.
Do you value cycle alignment more, or are you more concerned that the risk-reward ratio at key levels has worsened?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.$XRP is near $1.4988, up 0.58%, with $49.57M shown volume.
The $1.50 area is the level I’m watching because it’s a clear psychological pivot.
I’d prefer a brief sweep below $1.50 followed by a reclaim of $1.51 with stronger volume.
Entry: $1.50–1.515.
SL: $1.475.
TP1: $1.54,
TP2: $1.57,
TP3: $1.61,
TP4: $1.67.
R:R can reach roughly 1:5+.
If $1.475 fails, I’m out. I’m not treating $1.50 as guaranteed support; the reaction and volume decide the trade for me.$SOL is around $118.69, up 0.48%, with $123.12M displayed volume. I’m watching $118 as the nearby decision zone. If price holds $118, reclaims $120 and volume expands, I’d consider a continuation long. Entry: $118.50–120.00. SL: $116.20. TP1: $122, TP2: $125, TP3: $129, TP4: $134. R:R can reach roughly 1:5+. If $116.20 breaks and price accepts below it, the setup is invalid. I’m not chasing the green candle; I want the pullback and reclaim to show buyers are still defending the move properly.$HYPE has rebounded significantly; can the platform's revenue support this premium?
OKX spot 24-hour range is approximately 84.64—91.90, with a trading volume of about 55.28 million USDT, and the current price is near the upper half of the range. Active derivatives trading can increase platform fees, but trading volume is highly driven by volatility; if the market cools down, both revenue and token demand may decline together.
If the 1-hour chart shows a volume breakout above 91.90 and holds after a pullback, I will raise my expectation for trend continuation; if it falls back below 84.64 and trading activity weakens, the expectation for cash flow realization needs to be lowered.🚀 $MOVE is up 15%, and shorts are getting squeezed
Shorts hold $1.34M, almost 3x the $478K in longs.
💥 But shorts are down -$134K, with only 13.1% profitable, while 86% of longs are in profit.
🌪️ Fresh flow still favors sellers: $92.7K selling vs $19.9K buying in the last 30 minutes.
Shorts are heavily crowded and underwater. If $MOVE keeps pushing higher, they could become fuel for another leg up.$BTC briefly surged to around 85600 on positive PCE data, but this was a false breakout, quickly facing selling pressure and falling back, currently oscillating near 83800. US Treasury yields remain high, suppressing upward momentum in the coin price; however, spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, with institutional buying providing support. 82600 is a key defense level.
The market currently shows significant divergence between bulls and bears, with many funds placing short orders in batches between 83888-84400 to hedge and play the range. The market is waiting for macro data like the non-farm payrolls to choose a direction. The short-term trend leans towards range-bound movement, with 85600 as a strong resistance level. If volume does not increase to hold above this level, the trend will likely continue to oscillate or even retest lower levels; only a valid breakout above this resistance will open up further upside. Short-term buying on the rise is not recommended due to volatile price swings; strict position control is essential. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Every time I review, I warn myself to wait for the right-side signal, wait for the pattern to truly form, but with my finger hovering over the open position button, I start acting recklessly again.
BTC is hovering around 83800 without moving, AVAX just smoothly crossed the moving average on the hourly chart, and 11.04 is a very solid support. The risk-reward ratio is actually calculated very clearly, with a stop loss set at 10.95 to accept if it breaks, but my mind can't help but repeatedly rehearse the scenario of "buying and then dumping."
Fighting this mental demon of fearing stop loss yet fearing missing out is so tormenting. In the end, I still followed the rules and pushed in 10x leverage. Since I trust this system, I strip emotions off the chart. If the price reaches the point, decisively exit; if not, hold firm and don't try to guess how the next candlestick will form.
$BTC $SOL $SUI Brothers! This is a major risk factor, and a conclusion is about to be reached. Before that, I think it's wise to be cautious with trading.
MSCI plans to remove MicroStrategy and several other Bitcoin treasury companies from its index. The public consultation ended yesterday, and the final result will be announced on the 16th of this month.
In fact, this proposal was raised at the end of last year, but the details were vague at the time. After multiple protests, the proposal was temporarily shelved.
However, last month, they revised and added several detailed rules, putting the proposal back on the table and starting the process.
They are prepared, and the probability of this happening in the UK this time is relatively high.
If this proposal passes, it will be a huge blow to MicroStrategy and other companies that rely on financing to buy Bitcoin.
It's not just about the index provider selling stocks; it will severely impact their financing strategies.
The worse outcome is that other indexes will follow suit and implement this proposal.
That will further hit MicroStrategy.
So, to say it has no impact on Bitcoin at all would be overly optimistic.
However, the market bulls have been strong recently, so maybe the negative news can be absorbed through capital.
But no matter what! Listen to me, it's best to be cautious before the announcement.$CORE late-night official project post reiterates the three security locks of core chain staking.
Three input guarantees for Core:
→1 Bitcoin miners delegate the computing power of the blocks they have mined.
→2 Bitcoin holders stake BTC without giving up custody rights.
→3 CORE holders stake CORE.
As is well known, everyone is currently waiting for the project team to release credible data on the handling of the validator reward inflation incident. However, once again, what everyone gets is not the handling data but the project officials repeating the old so-called security narrative?
What is laughable is that while repeatedly emphasizing the reliability of on-chain security, the validator reward inflation incident still occurred? This contradictory discourse is intertwining and gradually destroying the already shaky trust crisis of the project.
So far, the project team has not provided credible data on the handling of the incident and is trying to divert public attention and opinion by posting about other matters, attempting to let the incident die down and be forgotten. But this perfunctory approach not only fails to eliminate everyone's doubts but backfires, causing more suspicion, speculation, and complaints. Under such circumstances, it is even harder for the project to shift from negative public opinion to positive sentiment, making it more difficult to advance and develop healthily.
Only by achieving the scale of $BICO can recovery be possible.
The above represents personal views only and does not constitute any other advice or guidance!
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The pump-and-dump altcoin $SOON is such a trap, a huge scam! That big surge last night literally scared me off, I hastily liquidated my position with no hesitation at all! In a fit of anger, I also cleared all my losing $ETH positions! I sold all the USDT inside to cash out, planning to take a break and stop playing for a while! From September 16 to September 30, those fifteen days were full of anxiety, losing over 550 USDT, totaling 3738.54 RMB. This includes the 20 USDT reward from my planet; without that 20 USDT, the actual contract loss is about 580 USDT, nearly 3900 RMB lost.
Damn, I just lost almost a month's salary!
I need to take a break; such losses are unbearable! Also, I will never trade altcoins again—they're unreliable. I'll only trade Bitcoin and Ethereum, focusing on one coin at a time.
This time I died on $ZEC and $SOON, losing 500 USDT on one and 150 USDT on the other. $ETH also lost 50 USDT. Other profits were all under 10 USDT, but losses started at 50 USDT and up. Really small wins and big losses, brave to lose but afraid to win...
No more to say, nothing worth saying. I even quit the group in anger and unfollowed all friends I was following. I want to rest for a while.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Regarding the outlook for $BTC, I lean towards two scenarios: either a rebound near 90,000 followed by a deep pullback, possibly down to around 76,000; or 87,000 has already been the peak, with subsequent rebounds weakening and the overall trend continuing downward.
My approach is not to rush into this round of gains but to patiently wait for the next correction to present layout opportunities. Small-cap altcoins that were hyped earlier require caution, and mainstream assets like BTC and ETH should be entered in batches according to the market structure at the time.
US Treasury yields continue to rise while US stocks keep hitting new highs, so macro risks cannot be ignored. If financial conditions tighten further, risk assets may face significant adjustments.
When real opportunities arise, the market is often not optimistic but rather filled with various crisis narratives. If you missed out around 60,000 once, then you need to be braver during this correction. Altcoins are still mainly buyback-and-burn types, with a focus on blockchain infrastructure, RWA, and anonymous privacy sectors.
As for whether the bull market has already started, I tend to think this is the early recovery phase of a bear-to-bull transition. The bear market has most likely ended, but whether the bull market has truly begun still requires further market validation.Brothers, the non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 8:30. My overall judgment is: the data is very likely to be strong, which is unfavorable for short-term bulls.
Currently, the market is highly divided. The prediction market bets over 90,000 with nearly 60% probability, but Wall Street generally only expects 60,000-80,000. Considering the August non-farm payroll surprise of 162,000, if tonight maintains above 90,000, it will strengthen the rate hike expectations and suppress Bitcoin. Combined with the daily MACD death cross, volume contraction, and the 84,500 strong resistance, there are roughly three possible scenarios tonight:
Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations strongly (>100,000)
Probability 50%. The dollar strengthens, rate hike expectations heat up, BTC will most likely dip to test 82,500 (EMA20) support; if it fails to hold, then look to 80,499 (EMA30). The most dangerous macro bearish scenario.
Scenario 2: Data meets expectations (80,000-90,000)
Probability 30%. Bulls and bears tug of war, BTC fluctuates widely between 82,500-84,500, direction to be confirmed by next week's CPI.
Scenario 3: Data significantly misses expectations (<60,000)
Probability 20%. Rate cut expectations rise, the dollar weakens, BTC is expected to rebound and challenge 84,500; if volume expands and it holds, then look to the previous high of 87,399.
Strategy: Do not guess the data or take heavy positions on non-farm night; wait to observe the market's first reaction after release before acting. If data is strong, watch or lightly short; if data is weak and volume supports, consider entering. $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $ETH Multi-Timeframe Market Analysis
15-Minute (Ultra-Short Term)
Price is above all short-term moving averages, MACD red bars continue; RSI6=66.79, approaching overbought.
Short-term support: 2689.75 (MA20), first resistance at 2699.61, upper target 2738.
Market feature: Slight oscillating rise, short-term bulls dominate, but indicators near overheating, so a minor pullback after a rally is likely.
1-Hour (Short-Term Swing)
Moving averages in bullish alignment, Supertrend support at 2662.10, serving as the protective bottom for this rebound.
MACD continues small red bars, RSI 64.32, indicating moderate bullishness without extreme overbought.
Range: Support 2662; resistance 2721.49 (SAR), then up to the high at 2738.
4-Hour (Swing)
Price oscillates upward above moving averages, MACD turns red above zero line, RSI 57.46 neutral to slightly bullish.
4-hour pattern: Strong oscillation, inside a high-level consolidation box. Support 2640, resistance 2740.44.
Daily (Long-Term)
Daily chart shows sideways consolidation in a high-level box, MA20 provides long-term support, mid-term uptrend; however, MACD has formed a death cross, red bars disappeared, indicating a high-level bearish divergence.
Key daily points:
✅ Holding above 2740 gives a chance to challenge previous high at 2807;
❌ Breaking below 2615 breaks the daily bullish structure, leading to a deep correction.
Market Summary
ETH has the most stable structure among these three coins.
ZEC is a recovery rebound after a major drop; SUI is a low-level rebound; ETH is consolidating in a high-level daily box with continuous support below, representing a mainstream coin's lateral accumulation.
- Short-term strategy: Current price chasing longs has moderate cost-effectiveness; better to wait for a pullback near 2690 to stabilize before trying longs;
- Resistance zone: 2720~2740, if stagnation or long upper shadows appear here, it's a short-term shorting opportunity;
- Defensive bottom line: 2662, a decisive break below ends this short-term rebound. People in the circle ask every day what to learn: K-lines, indicators, Chan theory, waves, Wyckoff... all a mess in the head, just noise, useless.
Trading boils down to three simple truths: When you see a sure heavy move, go all in; if you're wrong, cut losses; if you're right, hold tight. What you lack is never understanding, but the execution power to apply these words to your account—there's a life between knowing and doing.
How hard is execution? Take dieting as an example: eat less, exercise more, everyone knows that. Teacher Tony eats one meal a day all year round, his weight stuck firmly at 120 jin.
What about you? Three meals a day plus late-night snacks, if you don't get fat, who will?
I just don't believe anyone can get fat eating only one meal a day. The same principle: if I see you truly execute "cut losses when wrong, hold when right" properly and still lose money in the end, I'll swallow my keyboard on the spot. $BTC #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Iran has received a counterproposal from the United States, but differences between the US and Iran remain. Iran has received a response from the US regarding the "7-day confidence-building plan," but there has been no substantial breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations. According to Reuters, Iranian Foreign Minister Alagheband has received US feedback through the Qatari mediator. Currently, the focus of discussions has shifted from "whether there is room for negotiation" to the sequence of specific steps.  This is actually very critical. The plan previously proposed by Iran was: The US eases military and economic pressure → Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz → Both sides resume negotiations. Meanwhile, the US hopes to address multiple issues including: free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian nuclear issue, and regional security. Trump had previously rejected Iran's proposal, indicating that there are still clear differences over who should make concessions first, how Hormuz should be opened, and how sanctions should be lifted.  Therefore, receiving a counterproposal does not mean an immediate agreement. But the positive side is: The negotiation channels have not been closed. Mediators such as Qatar are still promoting contact between the two sides, and Iran has not completely withdrawn from diplomatic talks.  For the market, the real focus is Hormuz. If the two sides can reach a phased navigation agreement: Hormuz reopens → crude oil supply risk decreases → oil price risk premium falls → inflation pressure eases → Fed rate hike pressure decreases. Conversely, if the counterproposal again falls into deadlock and Hormuz remains blocked, then oil prices, inflation, and US debt collection...$ETH is hitting 2700 again; if it can't break through today, it's done for #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在
Iran received a counterproposal from the U.S., but differences between Iran and the U.S. remain
On September 30, the Iranian government spokesperson confirmed that Foreign Minister Araghchi reported the U.S. side's official response to Iran's ceasefire proposal at a cabinet meeting. Iran did not disclose the content of the response, but the mediator Qatar stated that both sides basically agree on the steps to end the conflict, with the disagreement lying in the order of implementation—including the timing of specific measures regarding Iran's nuclear program.
Iran previously proposed a "7-day plan": if the U.S. lifts the port blockade, unfreezes assets, and cancels oil sanctions, Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days. Trump publicly rejected this last week, saying it was "unacceptable." The U.S. insists that Iran must first take substantive steps on the nuclear issue, while Iran demands the U.S. to lift sanctions first.
Mediation continues, but neither side is willing to make the first concession. U.S. officials revealed that Trump might resume large-scale military operations after the midterm elections in November.
On the market side, the negotiation deadlock supports oil prices, with WTI rising 1.57% to $90.34 on Wednesday, Brent up 2.4% to $97.90. BTC is around 83,400, resistance at 85,500, support at 82,800. Some positions have stop-loss below 82,500; short positions wait for a pullback to 83,000-83,500 to stabilize before entering again. Control your trades before the negotiation outcome. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ONDO ONDO is holding above $0.50 after a strong September breakout. Fresh data shows ~22% weekly gains, bullish MACD, and ~$350M futures OI, while tokenized investment products are strengthening the RWA narrative. $0.526 is the immediate breakout level.
Long setup.
Entry: $0.500 - $0.510
TP: $0.526 - $0.550 - $0.580 - $0.620
SL: $0.482Brothers, make sure to keep your bullets!!!
Hello~ brothers
When the bull market just started, I thought going in was like picking up money, wanting to invest a bit in every coin I saw. Gradually, I got greedier and greedier, my positions got bigger and bigger. I remember opening 10 positions, taking up half of all my funds, maxing out leverage, going all in. As expected, a single correction wiped everything out.
Now the market is back, but I have no bullets left, no qualification to enter.
$MON is really impressive, I wasn't wrong about you, but unfortunately my position was too small. Even if it multiplied tenfold, it wouldn't be much. It's me who's not good enough (•̩̩̩̩＿•̩̩̩̩)
$ETH too, I had a 2400 position back then, closed it trying to turn things around, thinking to take a gamble, but ended up losing it all. Now it's almost steady at 2700, I really regret it.
$XRP is so weak, feels like it has no momentum to rise. Come on, big players, pull the market up! Something feels off, I'm getting off first. This drop feels like a wipeout, it might fall to 0.1!
---
Brothers, we paid tuition again this time.
For this SOON trade, I entered a long at 0.5172, but was brutally stopped out at 0.4624, a -32.46% loss. It looked like LAB was about to take off earlier, but as soon as I got on board, the manipulative whales wiped us out.
SOON plunged waterfall-style from the high of 0.5619 straight down to 0.4445, a drop of over 20%.
All moving averages have turned downward, with MA5 (0.4598) and MA10 (0.4644) forming resistance.
The support at 0.4134 is already precarious; if it breaks, the abyss lies below.
The lessons from bottom-fishing and top-picking before are too deep.
The situation is bad, better to run first. Falling to 0.1 is unrealistic, but a wipeout is indeed possible. Avoid this wave of selling, wait for stabilization, then look for opportunities.
$SOON $BTC
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 🚨 $BTC just reminded everyone why fake breakouts are so dangerous.
Tonight was seriously intense. 😮💨
$BTC pushed above 85,000 and even ran to around 85,600. With the news behind the move, it honestly looked like the real breakout was finally happening.
I won’t lie — I panicked for a moment.
Once BTC started holding above 85K, I was this close to flipping my position and going long. The market was giving every reason to chase.
#USTreasuryYieldsClimb #TrumpRenamesAItoSI Is the trend changing? Big Brother Maji has placed four layers of BTC short limit orders. What's the setup?
The newly updated order list reveals a very interesting signal:
While retaining the original long base positions, he quietly placed four layers of BTC short ambush orders above, with prices ranging from 83888, 84000, 84100 all the way up to 84400, one each at every level.
Many people's first reaction: Has he directly turned into a big bear?
Actually, it's not necessarily a complete reversal of the previous direction, but more like a range hedging + selling on rallies tactical arrangement:
- The positions are chosen very carefully, all concentrated in the recent upper resistance zone; the meaning is very clear: if the market pushes up and touches this area, he is willing to enter with a small position to bet on a pullback;
- The order size is not large and layered, not a heavy bet on shorting, but more like "taking some positions as protection and profiting from the pullback" when the price rises;
- Previously, he consistently maintained a bullish stance and actively reduced leverage midway, but now he hasn't closed the long positions; instead, he added shorts above, more like shifting from a "single-sided hold" to a flexible range strategy.
There are two points worth noting here:
First, he begins to acknowledge that this segment is not a resistance-free straight rise; there is a clear selling pressure zone above;
Second, the tactics have become more flexible, no longer going all-in one way, willing to leave a hedging window for a volatile market. "October 1st, A Trio in the Crypto Circle"
October kicks off, and the market feels like a roundtable with no host.
Bitcoin sits at the head, its price hovering between $83,400 and $83,800, moving only 0.2% in 24 hours. It seems to be dozing off, but behind the scenes, someone keeps adding to their plate: the spot ETF has been bought for 9 consecutive days, totaling about $3.1 billion, marking the longest net inflow since last October. Silence does not mean inactivity.
Ethereum is like a student rushing homework, repeatedly changing answers between $2,680 and $2,690, with daily volatility under 1%. The previous day, the ETF ended a 7-day streak of net buying and shifted to a small outflow ranging from a few million to over ten million dollars. It’s not a retreat, more like institutions temporarily closing their wallets.
SOL is the most restless, around $118, down 1% in 24 hours, but bouncing between $117 and $122. Is it directionless? No, it’s waiting for the wind.
One is steady, one endures, one is restless. Understanding the rhythm is more important than chasing highs and lows. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 To conclude first: The most actively moving money in the market today is in $ENA. It rose 10.7% in 24h, with OKX perpetual contracts trading about 136 million USD, the largest volume among all volatile coins.
Why the focus? The trigger is Ethena's USDe entering Binance's stock perpetual system. Mainstream media reported this integration the day before. After the news landed, ENA jumped once, and today it continues with volume. On the 4H chart, a single volume bar reached 200 million ENA, more than 4 times the average of the previous four bars, which is not retail hands.
But note two points: the funding rate is only 0.005%, with about 8.54 million tokens held, leverage is not hot, indicating this wave is more like spot and long-term leading capital entering, not a leveraged long buildup.
The resistance at 0.2812 is the previous high; whether it can break above with volume will determine if this is a short-term event or the start of a trend.
Honestly: ENA is a yield-type sector, the news is real, but its business depth is not on the same scale as BTC or ETH. Participation is fine, but position size should be treated like a small-cap coin.
Do you think it can surpass the previous high of 0.28 today? $ENA$ZEC is currently fluctuating between 1,410 and 1,430. In the short term, if it can't hold 1,400, the next support to watch is 1,360, and if that breaks, then the range of 1,300 to 1,320. On the upside, 1,500 is a barrier; if it can't break through, it will continue to oscillate.
The biggest event ahead is the NU7 mainnet upgrade on November 5. The testnet went live on October 6, and the mainnet height was finalized on the 20th, so the timeline is tight. After the upgrade, block time will be reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, three times faster. But don't get too excited yet; while the speed increases, the block reward is also divided by 3. The total issuance remains unchanged, so this is not a halving.
There is an interesting on-chain event: during the pullback in September, a whale withdrew about 24,000 ZEC from exchanges at an average price near 1,140. Such moves usually indicate accumulation at low levels rather than chasing a rally.
In plain terms: in the short term, $ZEC will likely fluctuate between 1,360 and 1,500. A clear direction will only emerge after the upgrade in early November. Be cautious if it falls below 1,400 as it may accelerate downward. Only a recovery above 1,500 will justify talking about an upward trend.
#Zcash主网激活Ironwood升级，上线新屏蔽池 🗳️ US Treasury 5.6%, oil price near 90, yen 158, BTC below 84,000, who will move first?
Gold dropped back to 4,155, Nasdaq futures are rising, BTC only up 0.5% in 24 hours
Will it close above 84,000 today? Which side are you on?
📍 Latest global data:
· BTC around 83,400｜24h +0.5%, 7d -3.8%
· Gold around 4,155｜Nasdaq 100 futures around 30,560 (+0.35%)
· US WTI oil around 89.5｜USD/JPY around 158.2
· 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.62% the previous day
📊 Institutional view:
K33 analysts believe rising US Treasury yields are forcing investors to reduce risk exposure, limiting BTC's upside. BTC just posted its highest weekly close since January and is now consolidating.
🗳️ Comment section vote A/B/C:
A Close above 84,000 today
B Fluctuate between 83,000 and 84,000
C Break below 83,000
🎯 I choose B: Market cautious before nonfarm payrolls, 24h contract liquidations only about $45 million, sentiment stable.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Big Brother Maji's $157 million long positions under pressure, how long can the key defense line hold?
Big Brother Maji's latest full position disclosure: BTC, ETH, and HYPE triple long positions are all floating at a loss, with a total exposure of about $157 million. The entire long group is stuck at a critical defense zone.
BTC holds 455 coins, 40x full position, entry price 83748.20, floating loss of 316,800 U, liquidation line at 77184.39; ETH holds 36,000 coins, 25x full position, entry price 2674.24, floating loss of 348,300 U, liquidation line at 2590.08; HYPE holds 200,000 coins, 10x full position, entry price 90.85, floating loss about 1,060,000 U, currently the biggest drag, liquidation line at 71.68.
More intriguingly, he just slightly reduced some HYPE at 85.39, not a full exit or reversal, but a reduction test after a spike and pullback. The base position is still firmly held, the long logic is still stubbornly resisting.
Leverage allocation also reveals his underlying judgment: BTC dares to go 40x, ETH 25x, the most volatile HYPE only 10x. It's clear who is the ballast and who is the attack position.
Currently, all three liquidation lines still have a safe distance, but funding fees continue to drain capital, combined with tonight's PCE data window, the time left for market recovery is limited. BTC ETH $HYPE #PCE #CryptoMarket
The above is personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $FIL is now highly praised within the community for RWA real-world asset tokenization. Many people think that putting a multi-million dollar building on-chain as a token means the technology is already mature.
On-chain, you can clearly check: asset ownership, transfer records, total token supply, controlling wallets, and transaction records written on the blockchain, which are immutable.
But the vast majority overlook a fatal flaw: the token is trustworthy, but the real-world evidence supporting the token is not.
Tokenization of real estate, credit, and financial products is backed by a whole set of paper/electronic documents: property deeds, asset appraisal reports, legal contracts, insurance certificates, tax documents, and disclosure files.
Currently, for most RWA projects, all these core original materials are stored on centralized cloud servers.
The on-chain token cannot be changed, but the underlying proof documents can be modified, deleted, or lost.
Once the original evidence is tampered with, the authenticity of the real-world asset corresponding to the on-chain token cannot be verified. The token becomes a rootless tree.
This is exactly the core pain point that Filecoin aims to solve with the RWA reference architecture released in September 2026.
Together with Avalanche and IPFS, it builds a verifiable evidence infrastructure connecting on-chain tokens with off-chain original documents.
It decentralizes and permanently stores the underlying legal and proof documents of RWA, ensuring certificates are immutable and traceable, filling the biggest gap in RWA.The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.29% intraday, and the 30-year rose to 5.64%, both hitting the highest levels since 2002. Financing costs are soaring—30-year fixed mortgage rates have surged to around 7%, making buying homes, corporate borrowing, and tech companies building AI data centers all more expensive. Logically, with US Treasury yields rising so much, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin should have been hit hard. But the 2026 market is behaving differently: the 30-year US Treasury yield climbed from 4.84% at the start of the year to 5.64%, yet Bitcoin has fluctuated between $63,000 and $86,000 all year without a systemic decline. The logic behind this is worth unpacking. The key is not how high the yield is, but why the yield is rising. Tillyan, founder of 10x Research, puts it plainly: if yields rise due to Federal Reserve tightening policies, Bitcoin will be dragged down; but if yields rise due to fiscal deficits and debt sustainability concerns, the situation is completely reversed. In 2022, the Fed's aggressive rate hikes caused Bitcoin to plunge 64%, a typical tightening shock. But in 2026, this surge in long-term rates is mainly driven by fiscal supply and term premiums—the federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the Treasury must keep issuing new bonds to maintain operations. When bonds are printed more and more and risk compensation demands for holding long-term debt increase, Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins highlights its scarcity. Data also supports this judgment. Bitcoin and the 10-year US Treasury yield...$PONS Currently, PONS spot price is about $0.52, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $70 million, down nearly 46% from the historical high of $0.968 in early September, indicating that profit-taking and leveraged funds after the rapid rise are still being digested.
On the macro side, the biggest recent market variable remains the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. The latest August PCE rose 3.4% year-on-year, lower than the market's previous expectation of 3.7%, which has reduced expectations for further rate hikes in October; however, inflation is still significantly above the 2% target, so the interest rate path has not fully shifted to easing. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remain high and the dollar is relatively strong, continuing to suppress liquidity for BTC and high-beta altcoins.
PONS itself is also facing project-level sentiment disturbances. Recently, the market has seen controversial reports about Pons V2 fund withdrawals/project mechanisms, further increasing cautious sentiment among short-term funds.
From a technical structure perspective, 0.51–0.50 is the current first support area; if broken, attention should turn to around 0.46. On the upside, 0.58–0.60 is the first resistance, and 0.63 is a very critical boundary between strength and weakness. For your position with a 0.63 cost and 1000U margin, the current focus is not to blindly add positions but to observe whether 0.51 can effectively stabilize. If it rebounds above 0.60 and further breaks through 0.63, the market can be considered clearly repaired; conversely, if it breaks below 0.50 with volume and open interest remains high, beware of further liquidation of leveraged long positions.Market attention is splitting between BTC and SOL
BTC is currently around 83,700–84,000 USD, briefly surging to 85,500 USD after positive PCE data, but suppressed by high US Treasury yields and pushed back into consolidation.
SOL is fluctuating near 119–122 USD, with a 24-hour high touching 122.8 USD, showing relatively stronger momentum.
More importantly, the capital flow: The US spot SOL ETF saw a net inflow of about 188 million USD last week, marking 12 consecutive weeks of positive inflows, but BSOL alone accounts for about two-thirds of that, so it cannot be simply interpreted as a broad breakout.
Currently, the market is: BTC driven by macro catalysts, SOL supported by ETF funds and momentum. Next, watch two signals—whether BTC can break out of the range with volume, and whether SOL can turn the area above 122 USD into a valid breakout.
In high volatility markets, don’t just watch the direction; pay more attention to position sizing and stop losses.
BTC #SOL #cryptocurrency #marketwatch
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Base just rolled out Cobalt, its third mainnet upgrade, and the headline feature is Validity Transactions. Users can submit time-bound transactions that stay dormant until conditions they define are met.
Think of it as programmable timing built into the chain itself.
For a network pushing onchain activity at scale, smarter transaction control could open the door to more advanced apps.AAVE was my regret a couple of days ago; I've always wanted to own it!
I missed the buying opportunity during yesterday's surge, but it was clear that its support hovered between 157-160. I was indeed waiting for a chance around yesterday's dip.
This morning at 7, half-asleep when I got up to pee, I saw the price at 160 and vaguely bought 100 tokens! So I set a base position and got on board.
AAVE and UNI were once recognized as twin stars in the community. UNI caught the Robinhood train and now has a market cap of 7.8 billion. AAVE used to be $400 each, but now it's only a bit over $160, with a market cap of 2.561 billion. Personally, I am very optimistic about the lending business, especially in this financial game.
Currently, AAVE is also trying to ride the wave of tokenization of US stocks, plus the buyback and dividend train. AAVE's buyback strategy was released a few days ago, but any news that can be released early usually takes a long time to come out. Still, this doesn't affect AAVE's own ability to generate profit.
Looking at the price, without considering market cap, AAVE has already tripled from its bottom; the lowest point was $57. I'm not very willing to buy at 160 because it's still not cheap enough, really not. I bought it half-asleep this morning and then went back to sleep. If the price rises, I will reduce my position to lower my cost.
AAVE is a company with the ability to make money. I mentioned in previous posts that these tokens will evolve like US stocks in the future—they need to be profitable, pay dividends, and have buybacks! AAVE fits these characteristics.
$AAVE $SUSHI has been testing my patience for almost a year. 😅
After taking a 90%+ hit, I kept adding and trading to gradually bring my average down to around $0.50.
Now SUSHI is near $0.28. Still underwater, but the big question is: can it eventually make its way back to my break-even? 🍣📈
#TrumpRenamesAItoSI
#USTreasuryYieldsClimb
#AMDWorldLabsAcquisition