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$RESOLV
Today it surged 15 points, ranking in the middle of the gainers list.
Contract open interest increased by 52% in a single day, the long-to-short account ratio is 3.43, and retail investors are almost unanimously going long.
With open interest piling up so fast, those chasing the highs are likely to be left holding the bag; I’m staying out for now, will consider it again when the pullback shows reduced volume. $RESOLV
$RESOLV #Anthropic plans to launch IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving
According to foreign media reports, Claude's parent company Anthropic plans to start its IPO roadshow in mid-November, striving to complete the listing before the US Thanksgiving. It is expected to become one of the largest IPOs in history, with market valuation expectations ranging from $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion. The company has postponed its listing multiple times before, and the current timetable still has uncertainties.
Personal view
This is a milestone event in the AI sector. OpenAI chose not to go public, while Anthropic is taking the lead in entering the secondary market, representing top-tier large model companies officially accepting public market pricing. In the short term, this will drive sentiment in global AI computing power and AI application sectors, and will also indirectly affect capital expectations for crypto AI-related tokens.
However, it should be viewed rationally. Behind the high valuation are sustained huge losses. The company needs to continuously invest in computing power procurement, and profitability has not yet been realized. In a high interest rate environment, a giant IPO will divert market liquidity, with a large amount of capital being withdrawn, which may instead suppress risk assets.
The news is an emotional catalyst, not a signal of trend reversal. The main market focus still depends on US Treasury yields. Do not simply go heavily long based on AI benefits alone; AI-themed pulse rallies are frequent, and benefits are easily realized and cashed out. Going forward, focus on tracking the financial data disclosed in the prospectus and institutional subscription status.Why is $AAVE flying so high?!
Looking back, when Aave was hacked, it was actually the best time to build a position; opportunities arise in crises.
Why didn't I act then? Because after two cycles of bull and bear markets, I had ruled out altcoins and only wanted to accumulate the most certain Bitcoin!
But now it seems like I was too dismissive; quality altcoins still exist. During bear markets, it's indeed possible to hold small positions.
As for now, I'm still hesitant to buy these quality altcoins. Patience is key—reduce trading and wait for a relatively good entry point.
Currently holding small positions in altcoins like $HYPE and $BNB The market situation is already very clear.
ETH daily chart has shown nearly 10 consecutive days of small doji candles alternating between bullish and bearish, with continuously shrinking volume. Prolonged sideways movement at a high level with declining volume is a very dangerous precursor to a trend reversal.
I believe the reversal window is within the next 5 days, and the probability of a downward waterfall is very high.
Around 3 PM yesterday afternoon, there was already a wave of heavy volume sell-off, revealing the main force's intention; last night's weak rebound in BTC looked more like a final cover retreat.
In my own test portfolio, nearly 60% of people still believe in a bull market. This scenario is one I've seen every time after I escape the top.
When most people truly admit the bear market has arrived, it has often already dropped significantly.
Currently, the bullish side lacks volume, price, and capital support, while the bearish side's timing, volume, and position are gradually resonating. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Evernorth shareholders have approved, about 473 million XRP in the treasury is expected to be listed on Nasdaq XRPN on 10/8, current price about 1.505. I'll observe first and not chase.
Seen: The merger is expected to settle on 10/7, with related cash fundraising about $300 million, stating that the holding will be about 473 million XRP at that time (approximately $710 million at current price).
Regarding spot XRP-ETF, net inflow on 10/1 was about $4.06 million (Franklin XRPZ led the inflow), while BTC/ETH/SOL still had net outflows on the same day.
The coin price only bounced from about 1.487 to about 1.505, 24-hour range about 1.474–1.511, very narrow volatility.
Simply put: It's like "the token itself is sideways, the equity channel opens first," the story is on the US stock side, the coin price hasn't followed yet.
I think short-term don't chase this one or two point rebound, volatility will be greater around the listing date, it's not worth catching a falling knife now.
The treasury narrative is a mid-term theme, not equal to the spot immediately pulling out a trend.
What I do: just observe, don't chase.
If invalid, watch for a break below about 1.474, the recent 24-hour low to continue down, or a candle that re-stabilizes above about 1.511 before considering chasing.
Are you waiting for XRPN to really open before pricing, or do you think the treasury narrative is strong enough to start accumulating XRP now?
$XRP $BTC $ETH
#September non-farm payrolls announced tonight, rate hike expectations become the focus #US debt yield keeps hitting new highs, long-term rate pressure not eased🌪️On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, the calm before the storm!
PCE missed expectations, causing a brief rebound in coin prices, but bond yields remain high, and the main event is tomorrow night's non-farm payrolls!
If employment data strengthens, rate cut expectations will cool down, putting pressure on the market📉
$BTC ｜Current price 84194
ETF continues net inflows, institutions are hoarding coins.
Support at 83100, resistance at 84900, range-bound and very frustrating.
$ETH ｜Current price 2717
Following Bitcoin's fluctuations, ETF funds are flowing out.
2660 is the long-short dividing line, holding short positions at 2671 waiting for the non-farm direction.
$SOL
ETF has had continuous buying support for several weeks, block production is accelerating, with huge elasticity❗
Non-farm volatility will increase, risks cannot be ignored.
💡Key reminder:
Friday's data may set the mid-term direction, opportunities should be waited for, not rushed.
Before the data, keep light positions, use stop losses, and avoid betting on one-sided moves!
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Don't rush to set a direction for $ALICE yet. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts are still conflicting, and this is when it's easiest to mistake a rebound for a reversal.
The 1-hour chart is weak with an RSI of 46, while the 4-hour chart is strong with an RSI of 64. Short-term sentiment and the larger timeframe structure are not aligned. In such situations, rebounds are often misread as reversals, and gear shifts can be mistaken for market tops.
Current price is 0.1936, about 14.15% above the 1-hour support at 0.1662, and about 27.43% below the resistance at 0.2467. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by reclaiming and holding above 0.2467 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 0.1662, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.1456. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.2467 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
If you had to choose only one timeframe to judge, would you choose the 1-hour or the 4-hour?
The market is volatile; the above is only an observation of the market and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.Brothers! $BTC this wave of the market is quite interesting, the price is rising, and the funding rate has turned negative. Is this the start of a short squeeze?
30min K-line analysis shows the current price has already risen above the upper Bollinger Band, MACD continues upward, all moving averages are in bullish alignment, and the short-term bullish structure remains optimistic.
But what makes me cautious is the Open Interest (OI), which keeps pushing up, yet the funding rate has turned negative.
This indicates a large influx of shorts on the contract side, but the price is still rising, further proving there is support on the spot side.
When funds are flowing in, I don’t like to guess where the top is. The first resistance at 85300 has already been broken, with a trend to hold above it.
85500 awaits further confirmation; if it breaks and holds, we can continue to look upward, but around 87000 will be a major hurdle, and breaking through might not be so easy.
I’m very familiar with this kind of market; I’ve suffered many losses here.
Because it’s easy to have a short squeeze, first igniting the bullish sentiment, clearing out shorts on one side, attracting bulls on the other, and finally swallowing the new trend-following bulls with a downward move.
If a wick appears next and MACD volume suddenly expands, the short-term market might have peaked.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only! AAVE cost over $160, now the price is $176.59. I have 100, so I earned 16 x 100 = $1600, enough for a big meal during National Day.
There's a saying in trading: sell when you least want to!
Right now, I don't want to sell. I think it can go up to $300, and maybe even $1000 in the future, since Standard Chartered has already made promises.
The difference between humans and machines is that machines don't consider whether you can reach $300 or $100; they just execute emotionless programs. I definitely want to achieve quantitative trading.
Trading must be like this too, so I decided to sell 80, only taking profits within my own understanding. The rest of the profits you guys can earn. The main reason I sell is because I'm afraid you won't be able to buy cheap chips. This behavior of mine is called self-sacrifice for others!#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
Many people look at the positions of big players, and their first reaction is to count how many types of coins they have bought. But what’s really worth pondering is why they only heavily hold these two.
Position structure: ETH as the base, BTC as the spearhead
This 161 million portfolio’s core logic isn’t complicated — use ETH to stabilize the account’s base, and use BTC to bet on directional flexibility.
On the ETH side, 34,000 coins with 25x full position long, it’s the largest portion of the entire account. Its significance isn’t in how high the leverage is, but that the liquidation price is pressed down to around 2550, leaving a wide enough buffer zone in between to withstand fluctuations without being forced out. This is a "ballast stone" style position design.
On the BTC side, 546 coins with 40x full position long, the leverage is obviously more aggressive. But with an opening price of 84548 and a liquidation price of 75542, the nearly 9000-point space in between shows he’s not gambling on short-term direction, but using high leverage for flexibility while using a deep buffer for fault tolerance. This is a "spearhead" style position — responsible for offense but not easily broken with one strike.
As for small positions like HYPE, they account for a very small proportion and seem more like an emotional outlet outside the mainstream; profits are a bonus, losses don’t hurt much.
The real signal: he only places heavy bets on the mainstream
The most notable aspect of this layout isn’t the leverage multiples, but the concentration of targets. $ETH $BTC $SOL #Anthropic plans to launch IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving
Anthropic going public means AI on Nasdaq is about to draw blood from crypto
Roadshow during the week of November 9, ringing the bell before Thanksgiving, valuation at $1.8–2 trillion, revenue $4.6 billion, operating loss $8 billion, net loss $42 billion with $34 billion being accounting magic—but the market doesn't care, Wall Street wants a ticket to the “AI Maotai.”
Three possible market scenarios:
High valuation issuance → risk assets party wildly, BTC surges, AI Agent / computing power / RWA get lifted by US stocks, altcoins go crazy one last time;
Average pricing / break below issue price → the term “AI bubble” is confirmed, NVDA shakes, BTC pulls back, AI concept coins get halved first;
Delay → worse than break below issue price, indicating big money is afraid to catch the falling knife, liquidity tightens, contract traders collectively pay tuition.
Don't believe AI and crypto are unrelated
What’s being priced now isn’t on-chain TPS, but whether Wall Street is willing to move pensions to buy Claude. If it succeeds, AI coins have a six-month story; if it crashes, the whole market first kills valuations before talking about faith.
10/14 San Francisco investor meeting = the first signal flare.
After that day, watch three things:
① NVDA pre-market
② OKX WLD/FET/$RNDR trading volume
③ Whether BTC has already priced in good news and stops risingLet's summarize what we can do in terms of trading. This short-term trend aligns better with our previous statements. Bitcoin was previously said to be long, and now it's almost at the take-profit level we discussed; SOL has rebounded back to around 120, and Ripple has returned above 1.5. The direction is the same as before, just waiting for time for it to emerge. The following price levels haven't changed; the chart shows the daily chart. Bitcoin: Slightly long: 83,000~83,500, go long (at the current price, you could also hold lightly). Take profit at 86,000, add 81,000, stop loss at 78,000, current price is about 85,500, close to take-profit. I won't comment further; at 86,000, you can consider taking profit; If it falls back, proceed with the stop-loss. Ethereum: Waiting up and down, rebounding to around 2,780, short (short stop loss not provided, manage yourself) Small long at 2,650, cover 2,600 to break below 2,400, long stop loss. Current price is about 2,718, still between the two price levels. Solana: Bearish, short near 120, add at 125, defend at 140, current price is about 121, already in the short zone near 120; On the daily chart, around 125, it's Weak High. Dogecoin: Bearish: Short at 0.1, fill at 0.11, defence at 0.12, current price is about 0.0947, just over 5% away from 0.1. Ripple: Bullish, entered near 1.5, first take profitMarket Commentary｜Don't try to tame ETH; the range is playing both bulls and bears
People say they want to control Ethereum, but the market action is not influenced by sentiment at all. It repeatedly pushes up to 2730 only to be knocked down, then falls back and firmly holds at 2690, occasionally probing 2670. The whole day it just oscillates within a 20-30 point range.
Many think they've figured out the consolidation pattern and believe that by identifying the highs and lows they can repeatedly profit. But this narrow grinding range is the most exhausting. Although the range seems volatile, after deducting fees and slippage, the actual profit you can pocket with a small principal is pitifully little.
Now, thinking of shorting after it rises is a big trap. If it really rallies to a high level and breaks through 2738 with volume stimulated by the non-farm payroll data, it will trigger a short squeeze. Chasing shorts at the top will get buried halfway.
Don't subjectively expect it to "drop properly"; it's not that Ethereum is deliberately opposing the bears, but that the bulls and bears are evenly matched here. There is selling pressure from trapped longs above and buying support below. Without any news catalyst, it will keep sweeping back and forth.
Don't be fooled by the apparent range pattern; the consolidation can choose a direction at any time. It will either break through the upper resistance with volume to open up upside space or smash through the 2650 support to start a pullback.
It's better to wait for a breakout and follow the trend than to subjectively predict "short after it rises." With non-farm payrolls approaching, spikes will directly pierce your imagined entry points.
$ETHHow many people were stunned by this midday surge? $SOL was forcibly pulled from 116.6 to 120.4. On the surface, it looks like a positive effect from the SOL ETF's net inflow of 270 million in September, but behind the scenes, the shorts were brutally squeezed to death by negative fees. The long-short ratio dropped to 1.58; the more retail investors short, the harder the whale pumps.
But we have to be rational: the non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30, with heavy resistance at the previous high of 121.84. With such severe overbought conditions, chasing the price here is like catching a flying knife. Bitcoin at 84800 hasn't stabilized yet either.
The more the frenzy, the more cautious we must be. For tonight's non-farm data, do you think the market will short squeeze first or kill the longs first?
#Cryptocurrency #NonFarm #BTC #西联推出稳定币卡，接入Solana生态 #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 BTC latest price is about $85,292 【Recent Support】 (First short-term defense line)
🎯 First support: $84,000-84,100, recently the price has repeatedly tested this range sideways, short-term bulls will defend here
🎯 Second support: $83,000-83,300, breaking below here indicates weakness
🎯 Key support: $82,500-82,800 (lowest in the past 7 days $82,581), this is the short-term lifeline for this round; breaking it likely leads to further decline
✨✨✨✨✨
【Deep Support】 (Pullback buying opportunity)
🎯 Strong support: $80,000-80,900, previous dense trading area with strong buying pressure
🎯 Iron bottom reference: $78,000-79,000, multiple rebounds here within 30 days; if it falls to this range, this is where I dare to call a test of the bottom
✨✨✨✨✨
【Resistance Above】
🎯 $85,500-86,000 must be broken first to talk about further rally; above that, look at $87,000-87,300
✨✨✨✨✨
【My Trading Reference】
🎯 Currently at $85,292 near resistance, do not chase the high. If you want to enter, place orders in two batches at $84,000 and $82,500; stop loss and exit if it breaks below $82,500 Regarding Bitcoin, due to the decline in US Treasury yields, it has held the support level these past two days and started to rebound. Considering the ETF data and the capital flow in the crypto market, there is a divergence between the data and the price trend, especially with the volatility the day before yesterday, where there was a significant large net outflow of funds.
However, a single day's net outflow does not indicate much; subsequent ETF capital inflows suggest that Wednesday's net outflow was merely a turnover.Everyone expects $BTC to keep going up, but I’m staying bearish. I already closed half my short around $82,800, locking in roughly 1,500 points. I’m holding the remaining half because I still expect a pullback. I don’t trade every move or chase squeezes. I simply trade the direction I believe in. Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls could be the key catalyst. If volatility hits,$BTC may finally show whether this rally has real strength. What’s your view—continuation or pullback? #USJobsDataToday #AnthroLet's take a look at Dogecoin. The direction here is the same as before, bearish; the price hasn't reached that point yet, so let's wait for time to emerge. This article includes the latest market updates and news. Price summary: I. Short position: 0.1. II. Increase position: 0.11. III. Stop loss: 0.12. This round pushed Bitcoin above 85,000, and Solana rebounded by more than two percent, but Dogecoin was only around 0.0947, rising less than half percent today. OKX's range over the past 24 hours was 0.0931 to 0.09608, roughly a 3% fluctuation, narrower than last night's range. It is still more than five percent away from the 0.1 short position level. The market is rising but it barely follows the trend, indicating weak chasing momentum at this level. For our plan, there is nothing that needs to be changed: if the price hasn't reached 0.1, there's no need to rush to short; If it really rebounds to 0.1, enter the market at the same level, buy up to 0.11, and exit at 0.12. The direction is the same as before, just wait for time for it to emerge; If the price rises to 0.12, be prepared to stop losses. Technical side: daily chart. Today's daily candlestick is currently at 0.09433, high 0.09486, low 0.09311. The screenshot shows 0.09475, tested below the red line near 0.09309 during the session, then pulled back. The strong high above is at 0.118, and below that is a red zone, with the lower edge at 0.111 and the upper edge at 0.11Yesterday I was mocked by the group, today watch me prove them wrong: 30U challenges 360U.
Yesterday I said to short $CAP, many brothers still thought I was wrong, thought I would get liquidated, thought it would still rise.
But what about today? Hasn't it fallen?
Why did I short CAP? Because I know this CAP has limited upside and huge downside potential.
The daily chart showed continuous rallies, a 27% increase in 24 hours, hitting 0.08423 with a long upper shadow, showing heavy selling pressure above; the market has already given the answer.
Such a sharp rally in a new coin, once the funds fail to continue, the drop becomes a stampede.
I entered the short at 0.0825 early yesterday morning.
Now it's already profitable.
Currently, I don't plan to exit.
Stop loss is still set at 0.087, take profit initially at 0.06, if it breaks below then look at 0.05; the risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
The current price is already at 0.073. This decline has just begun, and the logic is being fulfilled step by step.
This time I just want to stick to disciplined trading, no heavy positions, no all-in, no blind trades, starting over with 30U.
$BTC
$ETH
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Wow, Citi suddenly switched from bearish to bullish! BTC is predicted to rise to 113,000, and ETH is expected to reach 3028. Even more astonishing, the ETF net inflow forecast jumped directly from 0 to 5 billion! Plus, they believe that the failure of the CLARITY Act is actually pushing the SEC to speed up the release of friendly regulations. Brothers, how much do you trust this institutional forecast? 👇$BTC Trade Review Rebuttal: Don't attribute profits to the asset and blame losses solely on the market; the root cause is mixing full-position leverage together
Watching BTC and SOL gain, while ZEC keeps bleeding, many think it's because ZEC's market is weak, but the real issue isn't the coin—it's the position structure that planted the trap.
$BTC with 20X full-position leverage shows floating profits and looks stable, but the full-position mode itself is a double-edged sword. When the market rises, it can slowly accumulate profits, but once a deep spike hits, these profits can instantly evaporate, even causing large losses. The so-called "stabilizing anchor" is just an illusion given by the current market.
$SOL with isolated 20X leverage does protect profits for this position, but isolated profits don't mean the strategy is invincible. SOL is highly volatile, and 20X leverage leaves very little room for error. A quick pullback can wipe out these short-term gains in an instant.
$ZEC is the core problem this time—not because the coin dropped the most, but because ZEC was opened with 20X full-position leverage. In full-position mode, there is no "single isolated position"; account funds are interconnected. Once floating losses breach the margin, they continuously consume floating profits from other positions. Even if BTC and SOL keep rising, as long as ZEC keeps falling, the hard-earned profits will be gradually eaten away.
Don't expect the market to turn around and save trapped positions. High-leverage full-position holding means that even a slight market reversal won't just lose that one position; it will drag the entire account down.
Don't be fooled by current positive returns. Volatility can spike anytime before the non-farm payrolls. Mixing multiple coins with full-position leverage means profits are earned separately per position, but losses are paid by the entire account.
$BTC $SOL $ZECYou might not have heard of $QNT, but whales have already bought it to a historic record.
Santiment monitoring shows that QNT recorded 645 whale transactions over $100,000 in a single day, the highest ever.
There is only one reason: On September 24, the US clearinghouse The Clearing House officially selected Quant to provide technical support for its "on-chain currency program." TCH is jointly owned by 25 major US banks and processes trillions of dollars in payments daily. They chose QNT, not ETH, not SOL.
The total supply of QNT is only 14.88 million. The supply side is extremely scarce.
Last week, QNT surged 287%, soaring from around $70 to $373.
What’s even more worth noting are the on-chain signals.
Whales who had been dormant for over 3 years transferred nearly $10 million worth of tokens to exchanges after the surge. Addresses inactive for 3 years being awakened by price usually means there’s more drama to come.
My judgment is straightforward: QNT is not a short-term speculation; institutions are genuinely buying an undervalued infrastructure with real money.
BTC and ETH are both oscillating within ranges, and liquidity is migrating from mainstream assets to institution-backed infrastructure. QNT is the core target of this migration. With a supply of 14.88 million, once demand from the banking side continues to release, the upside is not measured in just a few percentage points.
A pullback to 240-250 is an opportunity; if it falls below 200, then we can reconsider the outlook.
$BTC $ETH Market Panorama: The More It Rises, The More Confused It Gets, Both Bulls and Bears Are Suffering
The market keeps surging upward, and the divergence among participants has reached its peak. Many are starting to fantasize about ETH jumping straight from 2700 to 3000, BTC holding steady at 85000, and voices about hitting 100,000 by year-end are emerging again.
On the other hand, bears are having a tough time. Those with small positions holding without stop-losses are now on the brink of collapse. Every upward spike squeezes the survival space of those holding short positions, and the short squeeze atmosphere is growing stronger.
An interesting point is that $XAU gold has completely diverged from cryptocurrencies. Previously, gold surged to 4700 while BTC was at 78000 and ETH at 2400, showing synchronized movement; now gold has dropped below 4200, but crypto has climbed to 85000 and 2700.
The essence is capital differentiation: with US Treasury yields high, gold as a non-yielding asset remains under pressure, while crypto benefits from ETF narratives and contract short squeezes, forming a collective rebound independent of traditional safe-haven and risk assets, which have completely separated.
Those bullish dare not chase recklessly, and those shorting without stop-losses are suffering terribly. Many traders, including myself, are still alive, but this repeated tug-of-war market is far from comfortable.
All variables hinge on tonight's non-farm payroll data.
Don't be fooled by short-term rebounds; the 100,000 BTC and 3000 ETH by year-end are just market fantasies, not predetermined scripts. Once the short squeeze reverses due to data, the pullback will be equally fierce.
Don't blindly chase longs at high levels, and don't stubbornly hold shorts without stop-losses. Wait for the data release and the market to give the real answer before making your choice.
$BTC $ETH
#InterestRateHikeExpectationsDelayed, SeptemberNonFarmPayrollsBecomeNextKey ePBS does not eliminate builders; what it changes is who must trust whom
One of the core changes in Glamsterdam is separating proposers and builders in the protocol. Today's validators can outsource block building to external infrastructure, but the process involves additional software and trust interfaces; ePBS aims to make this division part of the consensus rules. It does not make professional builders disappear, nor does it automatically solve transaction ordering, centralization, or censorship issues. The change is that when validators verify build commitments and block delivery, they no longer have to fully rely on the goodwill of a particular external relay for security. For $ETH, such infrastructure upgrades rarely generate direct revenue like launching an application, but they determine whether the network can maintain reliable block production after expanding block capacity. If the market sees the term “PBS” and interprets it as complete disintermediation, it will overestimate the problems a single upgrade can solve. A more accurate assessment is that Ethereum incorporates the existing professional division of labor into verifiable rules while continuing to face the unfinished challenge of builder market concentration.
In the future, evaluations of ePBS should focus on whether relay dependency, block delivery failure rates, and builder concentration have materially changed, rather than just whether the functionality is online.#Anthropic plans to launch IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving
The boss has something to say
Anthropic's IPO is accelerating. On October 14th investor day, marketing will start the week of November 9th, aiming to list before Thanksgiving, with a valuation between 1.8 trillion and 2 trillion USD.
Broadcom has provided a maximum financing arrangement of 42 billion USD to support computing infrastructure. Previously, the computing power agreement with SpaceX was up to 84.5 billion. The computing power bills keep piling up.
But look at the fundamentals. Revenue in 2025 is 4.59 billion, operating loss exceeds 8 billion, long-term infrastructure commitments are 518 billion. Spending 7.3 billion to earn 4.5 billion, the gap is still widening. Now adding 42 billion in financing again, how this account adds up, the market will weigh it itself.
For the crypto market, this is indirectly bearish. AI giant IPOs continue to attract funds, risk capital stays in hardware and cloud infrastructure, liquidity is drained from BTC and altcoins. The Fed just raised rates, long-term US bonds yield over 5.6%, macro pressure remains.
I took profits on BTC longs at 82,800 twice and 83,000 once, now flat. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are key. ADP employment at 90,000 beats expectations; if nonfarm is also strong, rate hike expectations will heat up again, pressuring BTC. If weaker, the probability of no rate hike in October is higher.
No directional bets before nonfarm data, wait for data to settle before positioning.
No chasing highs or selling lows, wait for signals. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive, orders must have stop losses set, good luck.$BTC
Bitcoin $BTC rose 42.7% in Q3, the best third quarter since 2017. At the start of October, it got stuck near 83,000 and couldn't break higher.
On September 21, it surged to 86,000 but failed to hold 87,360 and then retreated. In recent days, it has been fluctuating between 82,900 and 85,500. The spot ETF saw about 6.3 billion inflows in Q3, nearly 1 billion on September 21 alone, but by the end of the month, daily inflows shrank to just over 100 million, with 150 million outflows on September 30. Buying interest remains but is not as frenzied as at the beginning of the month.
What is weighing it down is yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield touched above 5.3%, and the Fed just finished raising rates in September. After softer PCE data, the probability of another rate hike in October dropped from 70% to under 40%. The real judge is today's nonfarm payrolls. If the data is soft, the selling pressure above 85,000 will be easier to absorb, and 87,360 is the level to watch. If the data is strong, rate hike expectations will return, and first watch if 82,000 holds; if it breaks 80,800, then the next support is around 75,000 where many longs are positioned.
Historically, October has closed higher in 10 out of the past 15 years, averaging 11%. The seasonality remains, but the toll is gone. ETFs are still flowing in, so Uptober is still possible. The key is tonight's nonfarm payrolls. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $Currently ￥10070→￥9400
$XRP entered at 1.485, holding steady, should be able to take a bite later.
$LINK is still stable, no issues.
$ENA was abandoned because it dropped too sharply. My target price in mind is 0.225 to buy in, but of course, I will look again only after full unlocking. These past two days were emotional, I couldn't control my hands, missed out on two 100U floating profits on ENA, really got too greedy.
Dogecoin, UNI, XRP, LINK are all targets bought on dips. This is the most basic consensus.
To summarize, my first target's risk-reward ratio was too high; previous trades almost all took 13%-15% gains. This time as well, I set the take-profit too high, I didn't even exit at 0.28. WLD was just my lucky break, the dog whale pulled it from 0.44 to 0.55.
So last week I only made 300U from the WLD trade.
Then for these recent trades, I won't set my target positions so high. Long term, you can say whatever, but short term you still have to take profits when you can. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $ETH narrowing its range has brought the liquidation zones above and below closer together. In this situation, the market could hunt liquidations on both the Long and Short sides, leading to candlesticks with long wicks at both ends. The price could sweep above 2,800 and below 2,600 in a short period of time. Be cautious of that scenario!I said to go long, and you all criticized me
Smart hunters have always been lone wolves.
Yesterday when I posted bullish, many people mocked and attacked me in the comments
Stop fixating on those short-term moving averages, go check the on-chain data of $BCH.
In the past week, the number of wallet addresses holding 100 to 1000 BCH has quietly increased. These are not retail investors, but true knowledgeable mid-sized holders accumulating on dips.
Chips are concentrating, retail investors are exiting, can't you see this divergence?
Let me tell you another less-known signal. BCH's hashrate has been steadily rising recently; miners are not running away but actually increasing their stakes.
The halving cycle is approaching, and miners understand better than anyone what supply contraction means.
They are voting with real money, what are you waiting for?
Currently, the market sentiment ratio is 49% Bulls to 51% Bears. The bears have been pushing all day but can't break below 303; the support below is as solid as iron.
Truth is often held by the few.
$BTC $ETH
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 🔥 October 2 $ETH: Whales are accumulating, price is consolidating, tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls will shake things up
OKEx currently reports $2,678, flat in 24h, -3% over 7 days, still +6% over 30 days. On-chain activity is exploding—large transactions over one million dollars surged from 1,202 to 7,113 (nearly 5x increase), whales scooped up 320,000 ETH in a week (about $860 million). Only 3.49% of ETH remains on exchanges, 35% staked, 53 billion locked in DeFi, supply is drying up
But the resistance wall still holds: 2,699 / 2,743 repeatedly rejected, 13.3 million ETH stacked between 2,722–2,822. ETF net inflow this week is $690 million, buying pressure exists, but price can’t break out—one of the most frustrating consolidations
Tonight at 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls is the key (expected 84k–100k, unemployment rate 4.1%–4.2%). In the rate hike cycle, Nonfarm is a contrarian indicator, ETH’s volatility is 1.5 times that of BTC, amplifying both gains and losses
< 80k or unemployment ≥ 4.2% → strong bullish, break 2,743 to target 2,863
80k–100k → 2,632–2,699 continues consolidation
> 100k → bearish, test 2,562 / 2,494
⚠️ Caveat: PCE bullishness contains "water"; if Nonfarm crashes too hard, recession panic triggers first
$BTC $ZEC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 🇺🇸 Macro Catalyst: Oct 02 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Preview
Today’s 8:30 AM EDT NFP report is the primary volatility trigger for crypto liquidity. Consensus targets 90K–95K job additions vs 162K prior, unemployment holding at 4.1%, and wage growth at 0.3%.
🟢 Soft/In-Line <95K: Cools Fed rate expectations, lowers yields, and supplies the momentum for BTC to break $87,360 toward $90k.
🔴 Hot Print >150K: Drives yields higher, strengthening DXY and risking a leverage flush toward $80,800 support. $ETH｜Bullish bias, pullback not yet in place
4h RSI 56.6, slightly high; 1h RSI 60.9, also slightly high, MACD trending upward.
Observation: Waiting for pullback to 2693–2701 (1h pullback zone), current price still above the zone.
Timing: Slightly high above the zone, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 4h candles); ends once the top is reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target 2749; break below 2675 is considered invalid.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to retake EMA55 before considering.
In short: Bullish bias, wait for pullback, not recommended to chase.
$SUI｜Bullish bias, pullback not yet in place
4h RSI 54.3, slightly high; 1h RSI 55.5, also slightly high, MACD trending downward.
Observation: Waiting for pullback to 1.16–1.17 (1h pullback zone), current price still above the zone.
Timing: Slightly high above the zone, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 4h candles); ends once the top is reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target 1.21; break below 1.11 is considered invalid.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to retake EMA55 before considering.
In short: Bullish bias, wait for pullback, not recommended to chase.
For analysis only, not advice or trading instructions.$SOL｜Slightly bullish, but the position is relatively high, not recommended to chase
4h RSI 59.3, relatively high; 1h RSI 69.5, also high, MACD is moving upward.
Observation: Wait for a pullback to 118.15–118.67 (1h pullback zone), current price is still above the zone.
Timing: Position is relatively high above the zone, wait for the pullback to be in place before comparing.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends once the target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target 122.79; breaking below 117.5 is considered invalid.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to stand back above EMA55 before considering.
In short: Direction is slightly bullish, but only wait for pullbacks, not recommended to chase.
For analysis only, not advice or order instruction.Nonfarm payroll eve alarm sounds, the market collectively lies flat awaiting judgment
The nonfarm drama has not yet started, the market has already entered a lying-flat state, with capital in full wait-and-see mode, and negative factors quietly beginning to ferment.
$BTC currently at 83962, slightly down 0.20%. The drop looks small, but the market pressure is overwhelming. US Treasury yields have touched 5.3% and continue to rise, completely consuming the previous bullish momentum brought by the PCE. Spot ETF inflows have ended after 9 consecutive days, with a net outflow of 148.7 million USD this round. The 85000 level is piled with sell orders, making upward breakthroughs heavily resisted, while the support at 77200 seems distant and unattainable.
$ETH quoted at 2679, slightly down 0.15%. ADX is only 12, indicating the market has completely lost trend momentum. There is a large amount of capital defending at 2683, accounting for 54%. Once 2650 is broken, the correction space will open; to regain strength, it must firmly break through 2738.
$ZEC at 1375, sharply down 4.72%. Long positions liquidated amount to 1.81 million, not from active long exits but forced liquidations by the market, severely damaging long power.
$SOL at 117, down 1.76%, sell orders are twice the buy orders, with short crowding exceeding 65%. 116 is a key defense line; once broken, it will trigger chain liquidations; 121.84 above is the first short-term resistance.
Overall crypto total market cap has been stuck at 2.86 trillion for 8 full days, consolidating and accumulating long and short forces. Tonight’s nonfarm is like a blind box opening, the whole market quietly awaits this judgment.
Market volatility is huge, avoid impulsive positions.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $SOL$BTC｜Bias is bullish, but the position is relatively high, not recommended to chase
4h RSI 65.3, already at the upper edge; 1h RSI 70.8, also relatively high, MACD is rising.
Observation: Wait for a pullback to 84312–84524 (1h pullback zone), current price is still above the zone.
Timing: Position is relatively high above the zone, wait for the pullback to be in place before comparing.
Window: About 4 to 12 hours (1 to 3 bars of 4h); ends once the upper target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target 86787; breaking below 83522 is considered invalidation.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to stand back above EMA55 before considering.
In short: Direction is biased bullish, but only wait for pullbacks, not recommended to chase. On the eve before the non-farm payroll release, the market collectively enters a freeze mode
The main event hasn't started yet, and the entire crypto circle is directly in a wait-and-see state, with all funds choosing to watch; no one is willing to make a move early to speculate.
$BTC is currently at 84194, slightly up 1.36%. After hitting a high of 85632, it quickly pulled back. The 85000 level is repeatedly tested but can't hold steadily, like knocking on a door that just won't open. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and large funds are all holding back; the market is all about existing positions battling back and forth.
$ETH is quoted at 2717, appearing resilient. It briefly touched 2738 but was pushed down. A large amount of trapped chips accumulate in the 2750-2800 range, with heavy selling pressure to absorb every upward step. Overall volume continues to shrink, and many traders have short positions at 2671, holding losing positions and waiting for the non-farm data to crash the market.
The previous non-farm value was 162,000; tonight's data is the short-term market switch.
If employment data significantly exceeds expectations and rate hike expectations rise again, BTC could target 82000, and ETH could dip to 2600;
Even if the data disappoints but causes a spike, 85000 remains a strong resistance overhead, unlikely to break out into a strong bullish candle.
Tonight's practical approach is straightforward: firmly do not add positions before the data release, and do not subjectively bet on long or short. Wait for the data to come out and the market to show the real direction, then follow the trend.
On non-farm night, betting right leads to instant glory, betting wrong leads to immediate exit; leverage positions must be tightened, do not stubbornly hold on.
$BTC $ETH $ZECI divide existing altcoins into four categories:
1. Yesterday's News
Appeared earlier, topics are outdated, and expansion potential is limited, mostly mining coins. Expected not to surpass the 2021 peak by 2028. Coins in this category include: ATOM, FIL, BSV, ICP, DOT, etc.
2. Conventional
Appeared before 2021, with a certain market share, projects are still actively operating and developing. Prices of these coins are expected to move in sync with the overall market, with total market cap increasing 1-2 times. Coins in this category include: LINK, CRV, DOGE, XRP, XLM, HBAR, etc.
3. Advanced Productivity
Appeared in 2021 and later, representing (widely recognized) advanced productivity and future development directions. These coins have a higher ceiling than conventional coins and are very likely to grow strong in a bull market. Coins in this category include: SOL, SEI, SUI, LIT, PUMP, ONDO, PENDLE, ENA, HYPE, NEAR, UNI, AAVE, etc.
4. Dark Horse Princes
Appeared between 2024-2026, not part of mainstream narratives but gradually entering mainstream view, with significant future development potential but also a risk of failure, depending on whether they can become mainstream narratives and maintain hotspot status.
Coins in this category include: PONS, AERO, VVV, TAO, ZAMA, ETHFI, Niulai, RE, BIO, etc.
As a prudent leveraged long, my main positions are in categories 2 and 3, while trying to balance $BTC $BTC is done, bad luck, how did Bitcoin surge today, and so fiercely
It’s been unstoppable all the way, 85000 was broken instantly
Should we cut losses and run, brothers, bad luck for us
I have a short at 84300, can it still return to the other side?
Today is Friday, is it really breaking out of the trend? Bitcoin has already reached 85500, barely holding on
Feeling like reversing position, it’s too painful
$ETH Ethereum’s rebound today is still weak, only around 2720, consistent with consolidation
Ethereum is weaker compared to Bitcoin now, still no clear direction
Now it depends on Bitcoin, if Bitcoin falls, Ethereum definitely won’t hold
The weaker the rebound now, the more it might drop later Aave supports tokenized US stock collateral to borrow USDC, and the acceleration of real asset on-chain is a positive sentiment for leading DeFi governance assets like UNI. I judge the short term to be bullish but still within a consolidation range. The one-hour and four-hour trends are both upward; 9.044 has risen 5.91% from the 24-hour low of 8.719. The funding rate of 0.01% shows mild payment from the bulls, and the open interest of 5.778 million coins does not indicate crowding; the top 10 order book levels show 17,000 bids versus 7,913 asks, a ratio of 2.15, with noticeably stronger buy-side support. The resistance above at 9.244 is short-term and requires volume to break through. In terms of operation, lightly buy on a pullback to 8.93, stop loss at 8.79, target 9.23; if volume supports a stable break above 9.26, then add positions targeting 9.41, with a position size not exceeding 20%, exit immediately if broken below.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$UNI#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $UNI It is said that mastering 30% of this series is enough to beat 99% of people in the market. $ETH
Al Brooks' price action system boils down to one core idea: abandon lagging indicators and return to naked candlestick trading. In his system, every candlestick is a "vote" cast by institutions with real money. He emphasizes "analyzing each candlestick individually," focusing on the closing price position—closing within the top 20% of the range indicates very strong buying pressure. His most hardcore risk control logic is: risking 3 points to gain 1 point requires a 90% win rate to survive; otherwise, it’s a slow death.
Looking at the ETH chart, the current price hovers around 2700 with repeated friction, and bullish momentum is nearly stalled. Although the price still firmly stands above SMA7 (2691), SMA20 (2620), and SMA200 (2113), maintaining a sound macro structure; the MACD histogram has converged to zero, and RSI has fallen to 64.55, showing clear hesitation among buyers.
The most dangerous aspect is the chip structure: retail bulls account for as high as 71.3%, while smart money bulls hold only 57.1% and are hedging. This "retail crowding and institutional defense" pattern has historically been a precursor to intense shakeouts. Around 2565 USD below, there is a buildup of $1.238 billion in long liquidation pressure, which could trigger a stampede if broken.
In Brooks’ words, this is called "range compression," where the price is squeezed into a narrow space. Until the direction is clear, the best strategy is to wait and watch for that decisive trend candle to appear.Today I must give myself a lesson in risk control! I made money, but almost got knocked back to square one by a single trade.
Although the overall account is still profitable, the polarization of the three positions BTC, SOL, and ZEC gave me a harsh lesson.
$BTC｜The Stabilizer
Opened at 84044, current price 84610, full position 20x leverage, unrealized profit 335.64U, ROI +13.37%. BTC is steadily climbing and is currently the most important profit support for the account.
$SOL｜Tactical Warrior
Opened at 117.41, current price 118.70, isolated margin 20x leverage, unrealized profit 47.03U, ROI +21.74%. This trade made me realize again how important isolated margin risk is.
$ZEC｜The Most Painful Lesson
Opened at 1403.02, current price 1329.54, full position 20x leverage, unrealized loss 54.37U, ROI -110.53%.
One trade directly swallowed the hard-earned profits from other positions. The thing to reflect on most is not the directional judgment, but the risk loss of control under high leverage.
Today I truly learned three things:
Correct direction does not mean the position is safe.
20x leverage leaves extremely limited room for error.
Profitable and losing positions must have proper risk isolation.
The biggest fear in trading is not loss, but forgetting risk after making a few profits.
BTC can make money, SOL can make money, but as long as uncontrolled positions like ZEC remain, the account cannot be truly safe.
Next, control risk first, then consider profit! Whale Activity Analysis: The Market Hasn't Turned Bearish, But the Cost-Effectiveness of Chasing High Positions Has Dropped Significantly
While the market continues to rise, the Majhi Big Brother account has been frequently adjusting short-term positions. BTC and ETH prices have been climbing steadily, but the account has been continuously reducing long positions. ETH moved from 2720 to the 2725 range, with tens of thousands of dollars worth of position reductions repeatedly occurring. BTC above 85000 is also consistently realizing floating profits.
This is not a direct shift to bearish sentiment; rather, whales are choosing to take partial profits at resistance levels, signaling caution at high positions. The next two key ranges will directly determine the short-term trend: BTC 85500-86000, ETH 2730-2750.
If there is a volume breakout in this range, off-exchange funds will re-enter to support the market, absorbing selling pressure above, and the rebound could continue.
Conversely, if the price spikes but fails to reach key resistance levels and whales continue to reduce holdings, be highly alert for a quick pullback, as a rapid retracement could happen at any time.
The overall trend hasn't turned directly bearish, but with the current heat at this level, blindly chasing longs is no longer cost-effective. With many uncertainties on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, large players are starting to reduce leverage, and retail investors should avoid impulsive rushes. It's best to patiently wait for a confirmed breakout or a pullback to support before making decisions.
$BTC $ETH Non-farm payrolls haven't been released yet,
first a rise,
then a drop tonight
BTC 84194, slightly up 1.36%.
Rushed to 85632,
seems like trying to knock on the ex's heart,
US bonds high, funds watching.
ETH 2717, stubbornly resisting the drop.
Touched 2738,
2750-2800 is all trapped losers.
Volume? None.
Someone holds a short at 2671, floating loss as faith,
waiting for non-farm to crash the market.
Previous value 162,000.
Beat expectations? BTC 82000, ETH 2600.
Below expectations? Might spike,
but 85000 still caps the top.
Strategy:
No adding positions before data,
follow the trend after data,
don't bet on direction, wait for confirmation.
Non-farm night,
either become a legend,
or close positions.
Just venting, don't get carried away.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.29% has already tightened market sentiment.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.29%, hitting a new high since 2007. For highly volatile assets like BTC and ETH, continued rises in long-term interest rates mean that risk-free yields and the attractiveness of dollar assets are increasing, making valuation space more likely to be compressed. For traders, this is not just news about a single coin but reflects overall risk appetite being under pressure.
There are two points to watch next: first, whether BTC can hold its key support; second, whether the U.S. stock market and crypto market will simultaneously see increased volume and decline. If yields continue to surge, rebound levels usually face selling pressure more quickly. Source: BlockBeats
Are you more focused on BTC holding support, or on watching U.S. stock market sentiment first? The first NEAR spot ETF has been listed in the United States, leading to a revaluation of capital towards the public chain narrative. BSB, as an ecosystem-related target, has seen a short-term boost in sentiment. However, I judge this to be more of a pulse-like positive effect, unlikely to change the current correction structure.
Down 2.1% in 24 hours, priced at 0.09997, it slightly stabilized after hitting a low of 0.09909. The trading volume was only 642,000, indicating thin liquidity. Although the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, they are respectively 4.25% and 12.27% below their highs, showing diminishing rebound strength. The order book's top 10 buy-sell ratio is 2.89, with buy orders at 2,579 clearly outweighing sell orders at 892. The funding rate is 0.005%, relatively neutral, and open interest is 11.647 million coin-based contracts, indicating longs are not overly crowded.
Strategically, lightly buy on a pullback to 0.09785 with a stop loss at 0.09563 and a target of 0.10389; if volume breaks through 0.10419, add to the position and move the stop loss up to 0.10153. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total capital; tighten stop losses under thin liquidity.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. —
$BSB #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling capital heat
#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 $BSB The first NEAR spot ETF has been listed in the United States, and attention to the public chain narrative has rebounded. CL, as a liquidity target within the ecosystem, benefits indirectly. However, the ETF bullishness has not yet been reflected in CL's market performance, and I remain cautious about its short-term trend.
The current quote is 92.55, up 3.7% in 24 hours, after surging to 93.66 and then retreating. The turnover is 18.875 million, with weak buy-side support. The order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.83, favoring sellers; the funding rate is -0.0032%, meaning shorts pay fees. Open interest is 416,000; shorts are crowded but the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are still downward, 8.12% below the 4-hour high, indicating insufficient rebound momentum.
Strategy-wise, lightly short near 93.15 with a stop loss at 94.68 and a target of 89.42; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 88.73, consider reversing to a short-term long with a stop loss at 87.35 and a target of 91.86. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total capital; exit decisively if stop loss is hit.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$CL #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling down capital enthusiasm
#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 $CL The smoother the protocol upgrade, the easier it is to forget that coordination itself is a risk.
$ETH upgrades require researchers, client teams, validators, applications, and infrastructure to complete compatibility within the same time window. Passing code tests is only the first step; the real launch must face different configurations, operational rhythms, and edge cases. Long-term smooth upgrades do not mean coordination costs have disappeared.
If a few clients or service providers control the vast majority of user entry points, upgrades will be faster but may create new dependencies; if participants are too dispersed and lack clear processes, the risk of forks increases. Mature upgrade capability comes from public testing, multiple implementations, and sufficiently conservative rollback plans.
The observation period after the upgrade is equally important. Some issues will not be exposed immediately at the activation block but will appear after load increases, node restarts, or rare transactions occur. Retaining monitoring, communication, and rapid patching capabilities is what completes the entire upgrade cycle.
The true end of an upgrade is not when the activation block appears but when major participants run stably and the anomaly window passes safely.
A successful upgrade proves team cooperation; repeated successful upgrades prove the network has institutionalized cooperation.The treasury company built around $XRP is about to ring the bell. The merger plan has been approved by the shareholders' meeting, with the deal expected to close on October 7, and the ticker XRPN set to debut on Nasdaq on October 8. Supporting fundraising exceeds 1 billion USD, and after closing, the company is expected to hold about 473 million $XRP on its books, aiming to become the world's largest publicly traded pure $XRP treasury company. The play is not new: tying the stock price to a single asset curve, amplifying both ups and downs. The company’s risk warning is very straightforward — performance follows the coin price. Current price is around 1.5 USD, the story is just beginning. $XRPMarket Overview: The Three Brothers Slowly Climb, a Rebound Does Not Equal a Trend Reversal
The market quietly lifted in the early session, with the three major coins collectively posting slight gains. Technically, the outlook looks positive, but the heavy resistance zone above is right in front of us. Until a breakout is confirmed, this can only be classified as a corrective rebound.
$BTC is currently at 84550, up 0.49%. The 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross, the SAR indicator at 83206 provides support below, and the price firmly stands above the moving averages. Short-term bullish momentum has somewhat warmed up. However, the 24-hour highs at 85236 and previous high at 85639 act as two solid ceilings, and without volume to support a breakout, it is easy to be pressured down again. The rebound pattern has not broken the box range constraint.
$ETH is quoted at 2699, up 0.69%, fully following Bitcoin's rhythm. The MACD has just started showing red bars, with the upper SAR at 2717 forming reverse resistance. Even the 2720 level is difficult to effectively touch. Without independent upward momentum, Ethereum is unlikely to develop a standalone rally if Bitcoin remains flat.
$SOL is at 118.74, up 1.21%, the strongest among the three. However, the MACD still runs below the zero line, and the SAR resistance at 121.5 is clear. The psychological 120 level is the first hurdle. Although the sector is relatively resilient internally, it cannot be considered a strong reversal.
The current market is most likely to confuse people; small continuous lifts can easily mislead one into thinking a major bull market has returned.
Spot traders should avoid chasing highs impulsively and wait for pullbacks to position: BTC looks at the 83000‑83500 range, ETH focuses on 2650 support, and SOL should be considered for accumulation after a pullback to 115.
Contract traders must control their hands even more. In a range-bound upward trend, frequent fakeouts and spikes occur, with risks of being shaken out on both long and short sides. Do not rush into heavy positions; keep control in your own hands.
$BTC $ETH $SOL#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
The nonfarm payrolls data will be released tonight, with interest rate hike expectations becoming the focus. The impact of nonfarm data on BTC mainly transmits through interest rate expectations. Currently, the market expects an increase of 84,000 to 85,000 jobs in September, a significant slowdown compared to the previous 162,000. After Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson recently expressed dovish views, the market has lowered its bets on a rate hike in October. Driven by this optimistic sentiment, BTC is currently up 1.69%. If tonight's nonfarm data is weaker than expected, the rising expectations of a rate cut will directly boost BTC; if the data is unexpectedly strong, renewed concerns about rate hikes may pressure BTC to fall below $75,000; if it meets expectations, it will most likely remain range-bound. Historical data shows that on nonfarm days, BTC's average volatility is about 2.1%, with bullish and bearish directions almost evenly split, but volatility often doubles within half an hour after the data release. Therefore, high-leverage investors need to be especially cautious of spike movements before and after the data release. Overall, nonfarm payrolls act as a catalyst for short-term volatility, while subsequent CPI data is the key to determining trend sustainability. Investors are advised to make decisions cautiously. @OKX星球