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Wall Street is accelerating its entry into the on-chain era. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins recently stated his hope for the "stock market to move on-chain." The SEC has also introduced innovative exemptions to conditionally support the trading of tokenized securities that meet certain criteria, exploring on-chain stock trading models. What does this mean? In the future, traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and funds may not only exist within broker and exchange systems but gradually shift to blockchain infrastructure. Transmission path: Traditional asset tokenization → Increased on-chain trading → Increased demand for stablecoin settlement → Expanded DeFi liquidity → Enhanced value of crypto infrastructure. However, it is important to note that the tokenization supercycle is still in its early stages. The real challenge is not issuing a stock token, but whether regulation, custody, liquidity, and user experience can keep pace. If in the future U.S. stocks, bonds, and funds are widely moved on-chain, blockchain may become not just a trading venue for crypto assets but a new global financial settlement layer. RWA may be the important bridge connecting the next wave of crypto and traditional finance.I'm officially in full bullish mood today. BTC suddenly pushed higher and dragged the whole market with it. I don't even have a perfect explanation for the pump yet, but honestly... I'll take it. 😭 The funny part is that I went aggressive earlier. Started with around $50, managed to push the position toward $240, but after the volatility and pullback, I’m only walking away with roughly $95. Still a win compared with getting chopped up on $ETH. Because seriously... BTC runs → SOL wakes up → ETH AAVE surged about 10% in one day to around 185, reaching the highest level since February. There are rumors of burning and big whales entering the market, but I won’t chase it for now. Here’s what I see: current price around 185, 24-hour high about 187.9, low about 162.4, up roughly 10% compared to yesterday’s close at about 168.3. On-chain, a wallet swapped about $4.26 million WBTC for approximately 25,500 AAVE; there was a short position liquidation of about $350,000 within an hour. The founder hinted that Aavenomics 3.0 is considering adding burning, with the current buyback quota capped at about $50 million per year going into the treasury. Simply put: this is a "buyback is ongoing, burning not yet implemented" speculative trade, not a protocol revenue doubling overnight. I think short-term chasing this ten-consecutive-limit-up style rally is unwise; there’s no proposal amount or date for burning, and the price already factors in optimism. Whether whales can keep buying and whether the burning proposal will be approved are the next risks. My approach: just observe, don’t chase. If it breaks below today’s low of about 164.3, expect further decline; or wait for a candle to firmly hold above about 187.9 before considering chasing. Are you waiting for the burning proposal to be finalized before acting, or do you think the buyback is strong enough to jump in directly? $AAVE $BTC $ETH #SeptemberNonFarmPayrolls announced tonight, interest rate hike expectations are the focus #USBondYields keep hitting new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved$BTC Citi raises BTC target price to $113,000 24H increase +1.53%, trading volume exceeds $5.4 billion. Core logic: US Treasury yield fell back after reaching 5.25%, easing liquidity pressure ETF inflows turned positive in September (+$800 million), institutional allocation restarted Citi raised the 12-month target price from $82,000 to $113,000, expecting $5 billion inflow in the next 12 months Maintain bullish mindset above 83,000, switch to defensive below 80,000. Brothers, the non-farm payrolls are coming out tonight, and surprisingly, the market isn't playing dead; it's rallying across the board in advance. Why? Because the market is betting on a data surprise tonight. Looking at the macro data, the expected new job additions are forecasted to slow down significantly compared to the previous value, and the unemployment rate expectation remains stable. More importantly, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson just spoke last night, saying that market interest rates have been rising recently and more time and data are needed to judge the interest rate trend. Once this statement came out, the market immediately lowered bets on further rate hikes in October. The current logic of funds is straightforward: cooling employment equals reduced inflation pressure, which equals weakened rate hike expectations, so risk assets are rushing ahead. So today's market, led by SOL$SOL, is leading the gains, with the big coin $BTC directly pushing back to highs, and both Ethereum and XRP following along. Gold barely moved today, indicating that funds are not seeking safe havens but are fully engaged in risk assets. Ethereum $ETH has also stood up this time, pushing up alongside the big coin, no longer the weakling that follows down but not up. But I have to pour cold water on this. Before the non-farm data lands, any rush is just a gamble. Tonight, there will definitely be many people staying up late watching the market, heavily betting on the direction. But I don't bet on the data. Before the data comes out, hold spot positions steady as ballast and unload all short-term leverage. Even if the data is really bullish, chasing highs can easily get stopped out by spikes. Protect your principal and only earn within your own understanding. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 @OKX星球 Large token holders propose reducing NEAR's annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6%, with a vote next week aiming to cut 66 million tokens over six years Large token holders propose reducing NEAR's annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6%. The spot price on OKX is fluctuating around $5.04. If the vote passes next week, the market will save $329 million in selling pressure over six years. I checked the proposal; based on the current daily increase of 89,500 tokens, the six-year transition period could see 66 million fewer tokens issued. I reviewed the detailed proposal on the governance forum. The 90/10 split between stakers and the treasury remains unchanged, but with inflation cut, the annual staking yield would drop from about 5.4% to around 3.5%. The proposal includes a 90-day grace period, and some long-term holders even want to cap it to create a fixed total supply. The proposer, SVRN, has staked over 55 million tokens in the node. Large holders prefer to take less staking interest themselves to suppress inflation, indicating that on-chain holders do not want their stakes diluted further. I just checked the OKX derivatives market; 24-hour turnover is 50 million USDT, and NEAR perpetual funding rate is steady at 0.0001%, with neither longs nor shorts rushing to exit. I’m keeping my spot tokens staked, not planning to unstake during the 90-day grace period, and I have no open orders on the derivatives account. I’ll wait for the governance vote next week before making any moves.I’m still holding a BTC short, and some people are already laughing at the position. Funny thing is, when a short starts working, the comments suddenly get very quiet. 😂 I already closed roughly half of the position around $83,400, banking about 1,600 points on that move. The remaining half is still open. Why am I keeping it? Because I don't believe BTC has completely cleared the downside risk yet. The market has bounced strongly, but after such a sharp recovery, I still want to see whether buy$AAVE This surge is quite strong, but chasing the high depends on follow-through. If protocol revenue and real lending demand don't keep up, even a bright increase is just capital rotation. My judgment leans bullish: a pullback that holds the breakout zone can lead to a second leg; if it falls back with volume, admit the mistake first.November could become a huge test for the AI boom. Anthropic is reportedly targeting a November IPO, and personally, I’m less interested in the excitement of the listing than in what investors are actually willing to pay for AI growth. The numbers behind Anthropic are massive rapid revenue growth, huge infrastructure spending, and potentially a valuation approaching $2 trillion. That creates a pretty interesting test for public markets. My biggest question is simple: Can the growth justify the price? AI demand is clearly real, but running frontier models is also extremely expensive. Once Anthropic becomes public, investors will be able to look much more closely at revenue, losses, compute costs and the path toward profitability. For me, this IPO could tell us something bigger than Anthropic itself. If investors are willing to support a massive valuation despite huge spending, confidence in the AI cycle is probably still very strong. If they hesitate, the market may finally be asking harder questions about AI valuations. 👀 This won’t just be an Anthropic IPO. It could be a reality check for the entire AI trade. #AnthropicEyesNovIPO $BTC $ETH 🔥NFP SHOCKWAVE — BTC EDITION □□ September NFP forecast: +90K vs +162K in August — a projected 44.4% slowdown. Unemployment is expected at 4.1%. ₿BTC ~$85.4K 🚀Weak NFP <60K → Fed hike expectations ↓ → yields ↓ → BTC liquidity boost 🔥Hot NFP >150K → yields ↑ → rate-hike expectations ↑ → BTC pressure 🎯 BTC map: $86K → $87.5K → $90K ⚠️$83.5K → $82K → $80K The key isn't NFP alone — watch the 10Y yield immediately after the release. It recently reached 5.34%, its highest level since 2002. 【On-Chain Trading Update｜AAVE】 Monitored address 0x8afa opened a long position: ▪ Execution price: 185.65 USD ▪ Transaction amount this time: 99,974.94 USD ▪ Leverage: 3x Note: This address has earned over 135,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +8.46% Brother Zhuang, please give me one pullback. 😭 $ETH just blasted to 2744, and my unrealized loss is now -40.76U (-43.36%). Only 63 points from liquidation. Last night I was still up 8U, but greed made me hold instead of taking profit. Now I’m paying for it. I was wrong. No more fighting the market—just hoping for one chance to exit safely. 🙏 #ETH #交易之声 #USJobsDataToday #AnthropicEyesNovIPO #USIranOilTensions Single Coin Contract Fluctuation｜Last 15 Minutes $QUANT's active buying and selling at the end tends to balance: overall active buying was 44.7%, at the end it was 57.6%, with a fifteen-minute price change of -2.59%. The seller's advantage did not continue to the end of the window, and there is no obvious one-sided transaction advantage in the recent period.⚔️ BTC vs ZEC — THE MATH ₿ BTC ~$85.4K 🟣 ZEC ~$1,337 $10K buys: BTC → 0.1171 BTC ZEC → 7.48 ZEC BTC: $90K → +5.4% $95K → +11.2% $100K → +17.1% ZEC: $1,400 → +4.7% $1,500 → +12.2% $1,600 → +19.7% $1,700 → +27.2% 📊 ZEC/BTC ≈ 0.0157 BTC ZEC has corrected ~21% from its ~$1,698 peak, while BTC is holding above $85K. 🔥 BTC = liquidity 🔥 ZEC = volatility NFP decides which side gets the bigger move. 👀Brothers, just tell me, isn't this ridiculous…… Who would have thought that just a few days ago, the green gains were overflowing, and in the blink of an eye, the account is left with only over 600 U. From 8:30 last night to this morning, in less than a day, the positions were completely shattered. I think the biggest problem this time is not the market, but the mindset being messed up. Chasing longs at the top, chasing shorts at the bottom, switching back and forth between $BTC and $ETH longs and shorts, the more you try to recover losses, the easier it is to keep making mistakes. The worst thing in trading is getting emotional. Just lost a trade, and you want to immediately make it back; just stopped loss, but can't help reversing; in the end, it easily turns into more and more chaotic trading. In this kind of volatile market, what you need most is patience. If you don't understand, just wait, don't trade for the sake of trading. $ZEC #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key #Bitcoin ETF inflows for 9 consecutive days, ETH outflows #Iran receives US counterproposal, US-Iran differences remain BTC's rise today is impressive; this time it finally didn't leave me behind. Yesterday I felt $BTC was about to break through, so I opened a short position at the high. Unexpectedly, yesterday's high became today's low. This wave of BTC's rise is so comfortable, breaking through 86,000, reaching as high as nearly 87,000. Looking at the liquidation data, the bulls overwhelmingly defeated the bears, extremely greedy.  Yesterday I was still asking, people say in a bear market, long sideways means a drop, and in a bull market, long sideways means a rise. So what market is this now? Looking at today, I believe the bull market has arrived. With today's surge, I have more confidence in the upcoming market. Everyone says don't short mainstream coins in a bull market, and I think that's very true! But I didn't close my position at the high point, now I'm hesitating whether to keep holding it. Brothers, give me some advice. I've decided to first watch tonight's non-farm payroll data and see the market reaction before deciding whether to close the position. If the situation is bad, then I'll exit. Afraid of losing when not making money, afraid of missing out when making money. My account is finally in the green, but my hesitation hasn't lessened at all.Unrealized profit is not money; it is what the platform has not yet taken. Three 10x long positions, all showing profits on the books. $SUI unrealized profit 11,900, $PEPE doubled, $ETC unrealized profit 14,400. How this number is calculated: With 10x leverage, a 10% price increase doubles the principal. A 239% return rate implies the price rose about 24%. At the moment it triggers: Unrealized profit can be wiped out anytime by a single opposite candlestick. For leveraged positions, a 10% drop means the principal is wiped out. The system closes the position immediately without your consent. Between the book value and the balance, there is a door that no one guards for you. Whether the door is open or closed, you only find out at the moment of liquidation. #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $SUI $PEPE 🚨OKX UPDATE — FRESH OKX has just listed QNT perpetual futures and QNTUSD X-Perp, announced Oct. 1. (OKX) It also recently announced: 🛡️OKX Shield— Oct. 1 ⚡CT/USDT spot listing 🔥ONEUSD & PEOPLEUSD X-Perps 🧩CTUSD X-Perp 🛠️ WebSocket port 8443 will be discontinued Oct. 31; API users should move to port 443. (OKX) Orbit angle: QNT is the interesting one — another sign OKX is expanding its perpetual-futures lineup around infrastructure/tokenization narratives. Ansem said he has swapped some SOL for $PUMP, optimistic about Q4, but warned that October might see a pullback and open interest decline, and believes $PUMP could exceed $0.01. $PUMP is currently around $0.005, with a market cap of about 2.34 billion; it rose about 50% in 7 days, and reaching $0.01 would require the market cap to double. Support comes from buybacks: about $6.85 million worth of buybacks and burns in the past 7 days, annualized about 360 million, roughly 15% of the market cap. The overlooked downside: buybacks come from platform fees, i.e., meme hype, which cycles with price and contracts synchronously during downturns; plus, he himself predicts deleveraging in October, and high-beta assets that rose 50% weekly usually pull back more than SOL. My judgment: if SOL pulls back in October, $PUMP’s decline will be more than twice that, and buybacks can only slow it down. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto sector has been rising continuously, and tonight's September nonfarm payrolls will be the next key test. At 20:30 Beijing time on October 2, the U.S. will release its September nonfarm payroll report. The market expects about 90,000 new jobs, significantly lower than August's 162,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. Why is this nonfarm payroll so important? Because the market is trading a core logic: Employment cooled → easing interest rate pressure → U.S. Treasury yields fell → risk assets benefited. The recent surge in BTC and ETH is essentially an early improvement in macro expectations for trading. PCE cooling and easing rate hike expectations have brought funds back into risk assets, but tonight's nonfarm payrolls will decide whether this logic can continue. Three scenarios: 1. Nonfarm payrolls weaker than expected Employment has clearly slowed, and the market may further reduce expectations for rate hikes. US Treasury yields have fallen, and BTC's upward logic has been strengthened. 2. Non-farm payrolls met expectations The market may maintain its current pace, with funds continuing to focus on ETF flows and risk appetite. 3. Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations This indicates that U.S. employment remains resilient, expectations for rate hikes may heat up again, and a high-yield environment may once again suppress risk assets. But when trading, don't focus solely on new jobs. The true transmission path affecting BTC is: Nonfarm → Fed policy expectations→ US Treasury yields → USD → risk appetite → crypto capital flows. My judgment: Today's rise in the crypto sector is mostly due to trading the "return of rate cut expectations"; Tonight's non-farm payrolls are key to confirming whether the rally can continue. If the data is weakThe second truth: 35% of ETH is staked, and the amount of tradable coins is decreasing Look at a structural data point that most people overlook. Ethereum staking contracts currently lock about 43.16 million ETH, accounting for 35% of the total supply. This figure was below 30% in January 2026, increasing by about 7 million coins in seven months. The circulating supply is continuously shrinking. Citibank stated this very clearly in its latest report: 35% of ETH is staked, reducing the supply of ETH available for trading, which may amplify the impact of demand recovery. Citibank raised its 12-month target price for ETH from $2240 to $3028, citing stronger crypto activity, improved macro environment, and renewed ETF demand. Consider this structure: tradable ETH is decreasing, while ETFs are buying, and whales are buying. Supply is contracting, demand is recovering. This is a structurally tight supply and demand pattern. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 🟣 $ZEC PREDICTION — NFP DAY ZEC ~$1,333 📉 Recent peak: $1,698 → Drawdown: ~21.5% 🎯 Reclaim $1,355 → $1,400 🔥 Above $1,400 → $1,450 → $1,500 ⚠️ Below $1,300 → $1,250 ETF pressure matters: ZEC's ETF recorded a $30.25M outflow on Sept. 30, after ~$268M cumulative inflows. □□ NFP could bring another volatility spike. $1,400 reclaim or $1,300 breakdown? 👀#USJobsDataToday #AnthropicEyesNovIPO #BTCETHETFOutflows $ZEC The AI market is no longer just the $NVDA market. GPU → HBM → Network → Optical Interconnect → Data Center, AI capital expenditure is continuously expanding outward along the industry chain. So now when I look at semiconductors, I pay more attention to whether the entire industry's profits continue to grow rather than the stock price. Currently, demand is still there.The timing of interest rate hikes may be delayed, but the pricing logic of BTC and ETH is no longer driven solely by a single interest rate. After last month's rate hike, prices still rose, indicating that negative factors can turn into positives once they are priced in; future rate cuts, if realized, may not immediately boost prices. The PCE night session initially rose then fell, indicating the market prefers to reduce positions on rallies, with short-term sentiment leaning bearish. News usually only adds fuel to the trend and rarely reverses direction out of nowhere. Once consensus forms, capital will concentrate on the side with less resistance. Currently, BTC, ETH, ZEC, and others are still oscillating within a range, with bulls and bears in a stalemate. The longer the sideways movement lasts, the closer a breakout is; the real surge awaits direction confirmation. Right now, bulls lack momentum, and the market tends to test lower levels. Small short positions are acceptable, but don't mistake the volatility for a one-sided move. Wait for the range to break and the trend to emerge before decisively following it. What should be done now is to wait.NFP × CRYPTO — BIG VOLATILITY WATCH □□ September NFP estimate:+90K August:+162K→ expected slowdown of44.4%. Unemployment forecast:4.1%. ₿BTC reaction map: 🔥 NFP >150K → yields/DXY could rise → crypto pressure 🚀 NFP <60K → rate-hike expectations could fall → crypto liquidity relief ⚖️ 60K–130K → wages + unemployment become the key Current macro backdrop is already tense: the U.S. 10Y yield recently touched5.34%, while October Fed-hike pricing is around25–26%.#USJobsDataToday Total exposure now sits around $154M, with the account still heavily tilted toward longs. $BTC slipped from 543 coins to 540 coins, maintaining roughly 40X leverage on the long side. Floating profit has climbed to about $129K, while the liquidation price has been lowered toward $74,250, giving the position a little more room to absorb volatility. $ETH remains the main anchor, with approximately 33,800 ETH still held at around 25X leverage. Unrealized profit is near $875K, while the liquidation tBig Brother Maji is causing trouble again! The total position size surged directly from 150 million USD to 161 million USD. This round of portfolio adjustment focuses on "abandoning the weak and keeping the strong." $BTC has become the absolute favorite, ramping up from 369 coins to 546 coins, with an average price pulled up to 84,500, liquidation price raised to 75,500, placing heavy bets blindly on the long side. $ETH holdings slightly reduced to 34,000 coins, average price 2,678, unrealized profit of 650,000, but the liquidation price at 2,550 is still a looming threat. The worst hit is $HYPE, replenished to 226,000 coins at a cost basis of 90, with unrealized losses expanding to 620,000. PUMP was significantly reduced, obviously funds were diverted to support $BTC. Big Brother’s hardcore play with millions in interest plus high leverage is something ordinary people should just watch. We should focus on tracking capital flows and learning the logic, not the leverage. Don’t get carried away just because others are using high leverage! #SeptemberNonFarmPayrolls announced tonight, interest rate hike expectations are the focus #Anthropic plans IPO launch in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital enthusiasm Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US will release the non-farm payroll data #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 , something big is coming! One post to help you understand what US non-farm payrolls are, why to pay attention to them, and how the market might move! 📊 Why is the crypto world always waiting for the “US non-farm payrolls”? Simply put: Non-farm payrolls = a gauge of how hot or cold the US job market is. Every month, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases employment data, focusing on three key indicators: ① Non-farm employment numbers ② Unemployment rate ③ Average hourly earnings Why does the crypto world care? Because employment data affects market expectations for Fed rate cuts/hikes, which in turn impacts the dollar, interest rates, and risk assets. Simply understood: 🔥 Non-farm stronger than expected → US economy/employment is strong → rate cut expectations may cool → risk assets under pressure ❄️ Non-farm weaker than expected → economy/employment cools → rate cut expectations may heat up → BTC, Nasdaq, and other risk assets may get support But note: it’s not as simple as “good non-farm = drop, bad non-farm = rise.” What really matters is: Actual data vs market expectations + unemployment rate + wages + subsequent revisions. So on the day non-farm payrolls are released, #$BTC volatility often significantly increases. But never just short #$BTC because the non-farm data is high, or just go long $BTC because the data is low Don’t start going all-in with 5x or 10x leverage contracts just because a number is released at 8:30 PM Data-driven moves often first sweep one side, then move the other wayDuring the National Day holiday, Bitcoin hovered between 83,000 and 85,000 USD, and the platform token OKB was also active but without causing any stir. As of around October 2, OKB fluctuated around 121 USD, rising only 0.1%-0.7% in 24 hours, up just over 1% in 7 days, and increased slightly above 10% in 30 days, but it is still far from last year's or previous highs (variously reported between 228-372 USD across platforms). In short: OKB is not a junk coin, but it’s not a "blind buy and it will soar" ticket either. 1. What is the current trading logic? Supply side: Total supply locked at 21 million, with burn and halted issuance, creating a scarcity narrative. The market has already gone through the "Bitcoin of exchanges" rhetoric. Demand side: XLayer’s Gas, Exchange OS requiring OKB staking to open markets, tokenized stocks/compliant derivatives—these are slow variables, not news that triggers explosive volume overnight. Backing side: ICE’s strategic investment in OKX, the NYSE parent company collaborating with OKX on compliant futures/stock tokenization, represent mid-to-long-term potential, but there is still a long way between "implementation" and "profit realization" 0x3cfbcebf998a27007326d18cffa5ba9cad041111$ETH is a traditional money market fund, usually hidden between subscription forms, custodian accounts, valuation systems, and bank transfers. Investors submit instructions, fund managers verify identities, registrars update shares, and custodians reconcile funds. Each company has its own ledger, and the same transaction may be recorded multiple times. On October 2, 2023, UBS Asset Management began trying a different approach: writing fund shares into Ethereum smart contracts. On that day, UBS announced the launch of the first tokenized variable capital company fund pilot. It is a money market fund and also a real asset tokenization experiment under the Monetary Authority of Singapore's Project Guardian framework. The pilot uses UBS's self-built Tokenize platform, with smart contracts deployed on the Ethereum public blockchain, and the first batch of transactions has been completed. There is no cross-time zone dispute about the date. UBS's official page records it as October 2, 2023; Singapore and Taiwan are both in UTC+8; the page shows Central European Summer Time 03:00, which converts to 9 a.m. Taiwan time on the same day. This pilot first tests fund subscriptions and redemptions. When investors subscribe, the system can generate tokens representing fund shares according to set conditions; after redemption is completed, the corresponding tokens are canceled, and share records are updated accordingly. The smart contract links fund movements, share changes, and transaction records, reducing repeated file transfers and manual reconciliations between different systems. These tokens also have not turned the money market fund into one that can be freely After holding the $1,600 area for so long, ZEC has now lost an important support zone and the structure is starting to shift lower. The next area I’m watching is around $1,320, but I don’t expect $1,400 to provide much protection if selling pressure continues. Why? Once price loses the $1,400–$1,420 zone, the chart opens up toward the lower liquidity area. Meanwhile, plenty of late buyers are still trapped above, creating overhead supply on every rebound. The bigger picture also matters. With U.ETH Market Snapshot: Extremely Narrow Fluctuations, Low Volume ETH consolidates around $2700, with a slight 24-hour increase of about 0.59%, reaching a high of $2745 and a low of $2700, with a volatility amplitude of only 1.13%; approximately 2454 ETH traded in 15 minutes, indicating very low participation. The daily ADX is 42.2, showing the mid-term trend remains intact, but the 1-hour ADX is only 7.6, indicating unclear short-term direction. Upside Logic First, the anticipation of the Glamsterdam upgrade, scheduled to activate on October 6 on the Sepolia testnet, creates a "buy on expectation" sentiment; second, Citibank raised ETH's target price from $2240 to $3028, citing concerns over currency depreciation and accelerated institutional adoption. Downside Pressure Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $55.37 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of outflows, with Fidelity's FETH experiencing a single-day outflow of $23.5 million; the 10-year US Treasury yield is around 5.28%, continuously suppressing risk assets. On-Chain Signals A certain whale has accumulated 12,134 ETH since September 2 at an average price of $2671 and deposited them into Aave; MetaMask is exiting Lido validator nodes due to an infrastructure security incident, expected to complete before October 7. Key Levels and Observations Resistance above at $2800 requires a volume breakout; if it fails, a retest of the $2670–$2680 support range is possible. Short-term core variables include the stability of the Glamsterdam testnet, whether ETF outflows can reverse, and the direction of US Treasury yields. $ETH $BTC Bulls - Hourly Chart Cycle Going long here again. Well, after the last long, there was a nice rally, holding the range lows, the channel, and retracing to the weekly open price. The take profit was very good but only reached one target, so it’s hard to call it a true win. I still believe the plan remains valid. We are also still above the red POI, inside the ascending sloped channel, near the range low deviation and 2D OHLC. As long as all these hold, the bulls remain valid. So entering again. Of course, still holding 40% of the short leftover position, consistent with the overall bearish expectation, as I have mentioned many times. Consolidation is indeed frustrating. But persistence is key in a choppy price action. And by going long again this time, I am precisely demonstrating that. So, as I said, this re-entry long is a great exercise in execution and sticking to the plan. Given that the 2D OHLC ends at today’s close, this is likely the last long in this area.The market is blazing hot, but Big Bro Maji has quietly started to close his positions! His current total holdings are $153 million. While retail investors are still chasing the rally, he has already begun taking profits at the top and actively reducing risk. This defensive move is definitely worth a close look. Let's dive into the details: First, BTC: Big Bro proactively reduced his position this time to defend. Holdings dropped from 546 coins to 460, locking in 86 coins. Margin fell to $980,000, and the liquidation price was pushed up sharply to $69,500. Profits secured, and the defense line is now safe. As for ETH, profits are running wild. Holdings stand at 35,000 coins with an average price of 2682. This big gain is very satisfying, with unrealized profits of $1.495 million. Although he still burns $1.17 million daily in funding fees, facing doubled profits, Big Bro handles it with no pressure. Looking at HYPE, he fought a beautiful comeback battle. From floating losses to gains, Big Bro took the opportunity to reduce his position, pushing the liquidation price down from 64 to 49, significantly releasing risk and locking in profits nicely. Regarding PUMP, it continues to show small losses and no presence, so we’ll skip it. Overall, the strategy is extremely clear: pull up while pulling back, lock in profits, actively deleverage, and lower the liquidation line. The whales have already started preparing for the storm at the top, so we retail investors must control ourselves and not get caught up in the heat of the market. The wind has changed; protecting profits is the way to go. $BTC $ETH $HYPE 盘面一片惨淡，SOL领跌，BTC、ETH同步走弱，山寨板块更是哀鸿遍野。 看着确实揪心，但"揪心"和"反转"之间还隔着好几道数据关口。PCE和美联储纪要都还没落地，此刻就急着定性趋势，未免草率。 这轮下杀，本质是预期差修正 往深了拆，压力来自三个方向的合力： · 降息押注回吐——市场此前对宽松节奏定价过于乐观，数据一出预期被迫后移，资金选择先撤为敬 · 杠杆多头清算——永续合约资金费率偏高，价格一破均线密集区，强制平仓盘涌出放大跌幅 · 观望情绪升温——机构在核心通胀数据前不愿加码，流动性变薄，小单就能砸出大坑 三者叠加，很容易砸出超调区间。但要说清楚，这是预期修正带来的技术性回撤，不是资金面全面转熊的信号。前者靠时间消化，后者才需要警惕。 美元与利率双高，但叙事随时可能翻页 跌了不等于完了，恐慌盘出清有时恰恰是筹码换手的开始。 在PCE和纪要揭晓之前，控好仓位、留住子弹，比赌方向更重要。 $BTC $ETH $SOL #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Bitcoin has finally stood above 85,000, but I want to ask: Is this really different this time? The most interesting change in the market over the past two days is: Everyone had been waiting a long time for a breakthrough above 85,000. After the real breakthrough, the market did not show that kind of crazy chasing after the rise. Why? Because everyone remembers the previous times. It surged up, then dropped back down. So now the biggest disagreement is not: "Can Bitcoin rise?" But rather: Is 85,000 this time a resistance turning into support, or another bull trap? My focus is simple: Looking up to 87,000. If it continues to break through 87,000 with volume and can hold above 85,000 on a pullback, that means the bulls are really starting to take control of the pace. Looking down at 85,000. If it falls back below 85,000 and repeatedly fails to get back above, then this breakthrough still needs to be re-verified. Ethereum is the same. Around 2,700 has now become a psychological barrier. Breakthroughs are not scary, what's scary is no one stepping in after the breakthrough. So now I won't get excited just because of one rising candlestick. What really matters is: After the breakthrough, does the market have the ability to turn the breakthrough into a new floor? Here's a question for today: If Bitcoin pulls back near 85,000, would you choose: A: Continue to expect a breakthrough B: Wait for confirmation before entering Type A or B in the comments 👇 Let's see how many people in the market really believe this time is for real. #大饼 #二饼 #BTC #ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Bro, tonight at 8:30 PM, the September nonfarm payrolls will be announced, and the suspense about the rate hike all depends on this. The market expects an increase of 84,000 to 85,000 jobs, significantly slowing down compared to last month's 162,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. Previously, August's PCE was 3.4% year-on-year, core at 3.0%, which was in line with expectations. The latest initial jobless claims are 197,000, below the market expectation of 200,000, indicating the job market hasn't completely cooled down. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson just said more data is needed to decide on a rate hike, and the market immediately lowered bets on a rate hike in October. Tonight's impact on the crypto circle is very direct. If the nonfarm payrolls are significantly below expectations, say just over 70,000 or even lower, it means cooling employment and the Fed loses the confidence to hike rates. Bitcoin has a chance to rebound and test the resistance above. Conversely, if the nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations strongly, say back above 100,000, the Fed will have to stubbornly maintain a hawkish stance, and Bitcoin will likely continue to consolidate around 83,000 or even dip lower. $ANTHROPIC $BTC $SNDK The support level has been wavering for a long time, and the market has shrunk with no movement. Looking at this pitiful trading volume, trying to bottom-fish now is basically giving freebies to the air. The multi-timeframe oversold condition has long since dulled; stubbornly holding the direction now is just going against the odds. Might as well shut down and retreat, leaving this mess to someone else destined for it. I'll go wash my face and change my mood; don't force extra drama on yourself when there's no market action. $BNB $CAKE $TWT Anthropic's reported IPO timetable matters less as a calendar event than as a test of how public markets price AI companies whose growth is tied to enormous compute commitments. The stated valuation range and infrastructure arrangements point to a familiar tension: strategic capacity can support expansion, but it also raises the bar for durable economics once public investors can scrutinize the trade-off. #AnthropicEyesNovIPO 兄弟们，以太这波是真的猛。 三季度涨了70.9%，大幅跑赢大盘。7月份的时候还有很多人说以太是不是不行了，结果稍一发力，直接成了本季度明星资产。 核心就三个原因。市场风险偏好回升，资金开始重新关注第二大加密资产。现货ETF流入增加，机构在买。DeFi链上活跃度回暖，生态热度重新起来，市场对以太的叙事开始重新定价。 所以你看它现在的走势，涨的时候比大饼多一点，跌的时候比大饼少一点，确实硬。 现在以太在2660到2743之间来回震荡。从上涨的三段结构看，a段、b段、c段已经出现背驰，4小时级别有点涨不动了。接下来要么走出一个更大级别的中枢，要么直接走回调。我个人更倾向走大级别中枢，用时间换空间。 但日线以上依旧看多，多头趋势没变，只是有回踩趋势线的需求。没行情的时候，只能刮头皮，做做区间波段。$ETH $BTC $ZEC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC 85000 has been eaten up, and the real danger zone is just ahead! Brothers, today's BTC surge is quite interesting. The sell wall around 85000 that has been pressing for a long time has been directly swept away, with an intraday high reaching 85266. On the surface, it looks very strong. But I actually think: We can't rush to call it a breakout yet. There is only one reason—— The holiday market is too thin. In this environment, it's not hard for the price to sweep liquidity upward once, but the real challenge is: After the surge, is there sustained spot buying to follow up? If it's just contract funds pushing the price up without continuous spot follow-through, then above 85200 might actually become a liquidity harvesting zone for the bulls. From now on, I’m only watching two areas. First: 85266—85650 If volume continues to increase and the price can hold steady here, the strong structure can be further confirmed. But if it shows: Volume increase → surge → no push → rapid fall Then be cautious. This is likely not a breakout but a typical fake breakout sweeping liquidity. Second: 84000—84200 This is the position bulls must defend now. After a breakout, whether the pullback can hold here is more important than just how high it surges. Holding here means bulls are still controlling the market. If it breaks down, the price may retest around 83300. And the position that really must not be lost is the one below this The old $ETH whales are still cashing out, and this rebound's height is being suppressed by them: Since last week, many ETH whales have been selling off, and in the past two days, it has intensified, with even ICO whales doing clearance-style sell-offs. According to Lookonchain on-chain data, in just two days, they sold 19,000 coins, equivalent to about $47 million. Fortunately, contracts are taking over: on 10/1, a single transfer of 200,000 coins, about $850 million worth of ETH, was moved into Deribit. Not sure if it's hedging or genuine optimism. In a volatile market, hold spot assets and avoid high leverage.Why should we still watch capital flows when $BTC Bitcoin is rising? OKX market data shows that BTC remains one of the most actively traded assets. If the price rally is accompanied by expanded spot trading volume, the support is more credible; if the rise is mainly driven by short-term leverage, the pullback could be faster. I pay attention to trading volume and ETF capital flows during pullbacks. If the price fails to hold the recent range and capital continues to flow out, the expectation for the rebound's continuation should be lowered.The International Monetary Fund has approved a disbursement of approximately $138 million to El Salvador, part of its extended fund arrangement totaling about $1.4 billion over 40 months, while waiving the previously unmet Bitcoin accumulation-related conditions. Officially, the authorities have taken corrective measures and committed to further reducing government involvement in Bitcoin-related activities. It is expected that no Bitcoin accumulation beyond the recorded donation scope will occur in the future, and transparency and regulatory frameworks for holding Bitcoin will be strengthened. On one hand, the "national-level hoarding" radical experiment has been paused; on the other hand, the arrival of this money eases fiscal pressure—a relief for market sentiment that had just started to improve. In the long term, the narrative of national-level buying will cool down, but the push for compliance actually provides institutions with a reason to enter the market. $BTCAjian's little tips on strong altcoins: $AAVE Currently both TVL and price are strong, but the recent module security incident cannot be ignored. Ajian believes the business growth is real, and the security risk is also real. Holding $175-$180 indicates the market is still willing to value the business; if the security incident expands, the price strength will be reassessed. $ENA Recently experienced a surge, but undoubtedly this kind of trend easily attracts both spot and leveraged chasing. Holding $0.24-$0.25 means the pullback support is still there; only if it continues to stand above $0.28 can the strength be considered sustained. $HYPE Here, Hyperliquid's OI is still rising. Ajian suggests focusing on the revenue trend and treating leverage-driven rises cautiously. Holding $86.5 means the trend remains; only if it breaks $90.6 is there new room to grow Deterministic factory contracts address whether an address commitment can be reproduced Developers often want to know the future contract address before deployment to arrange permissions, cross-chain mappings, or fund flows. If different chains, tools, or deployers use inconsistent factory logic, the same parameters may yield different results, invalidating the pre-written address commitment. Glamsterdam introduces a universal deterministic factory contract aiming to provide multiple parties with a more stable deployment entry within a protocol, making address calculation and reproduction more reliable. It does not automatically guarantee the security of new contracts, nor does it prevent developers from deploying faulty code to a predictable address. Determinism only answers "where it will land," not "what is inside." For the $ETH ecosystem, the value of this change lies in reducing cross-application coordination costs, allowing wallets, bridges, and protocols to rely less on individually maintained factory versions. The true adoption metric should be whether development tools integrate it and whether applications reduce address mismatches, rather than the factory contract itself being included in upgrade lists. Predictable addresses are especially suitable for multiple parties to jointly review configurations before deployment, but before funds actually enter, bytecode, initialization parameters, and control permissions still need to be verified. Correct address is only the first gate.$TRUTH 📌 Entry: 0.01465–0.01475 🟢 SL: 0.01420 🎯 TP1: 0.01485 🎯 TP2: 0.01520 🎯 TP3: 0.01560 Strong 15m uptrend. A break above 0.01485 can continue the move; exit if 0.01420 fails #TokenizedStocksOnAave #ZECNears1700NewHigh #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 The situation in the Middle East is stirring again, with intensified US-Iran tensions. The market worries about disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing risk premiums to rise rapidly. Brent crude oil has climbed back above the $100 mark. Crude oil is a core driver of inflation; sustained high oil prices will directly push up US inflation expectations. Personal view This is a significant macroeconomic bearish signal at present. The rebound in oil prices will delay the pace of inflation decline, prompting the market to reprice Federal Reserve rate expectations. Long-term US Treasury yields are likely to surge again, continuously suppressing risk assets like BTC. Many people treat geopolitical conflicts directly as a safe haven benefit for Bitcoin, but in this cycle, the inflation pressure caused by high oil prices often outweighs the safe haven demand. Two scenarios need to be distinguished: a short-term sudden conflict will temporarily boost safe haven sentiment; however, if the conflict continuously pushes oil prices higher, triggering an inflation rebound, it will instead cause capital to withdraw from risk assets. Geopolitical events are highly uncertain, and news of negotiations and easing could emerge at any time. Oil price volatility at high levels will be very intense. From a trading perspective, geopolitical market moves are highly random, and contracts should avoid heavy positions for speculation. Repeated fluctuations in the situation can cause rapid simultaneous losses on both long and short positions. Priority should be given to reducing leverage and setting stop losses. Going forward, focus on two key indicators: whether oil prices can hold above $100 and whether US Treasury yields rise in tandem.Tonight, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is coming At 8:30 PM, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Nonfarm Employment report, which will be a key basis for investors to judge whether the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates for the second consecutive time. The small ADP Nonfarm data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. private sector added 90,000 jobs in September, exceeding economists' expectations and significantly increasing from the revised 36,000 in August. Tonight's Nonfarm data will directly impact whether there will be another rate hike this year. During China's long holidays, overseas markets often experience holiday effects. This time, there is a frenzy of rising prices everywhere. Bitcoin has once again broken through the $86,000 mark. The main reasons are twofold: first, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman released cautious policy signals, reducing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes; second, institutions have raised their target price for this year to $113,000, citing continuous ETF inflows. However, close attention is needed as Bitcoin's monthly chart has reached a strong resistance level. Structurally, it still leans bullish, but the rebound lacks volume support and is relatively fragile. If tonight's data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike this year will rise again, leading to panic selling and a further sell-off. As long as it does not break the previous high of 87,500, we continue to be bearish and short. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 📰 [Aave Founder Responds: The Involved Module Is a Third-Party External Adapter, Not the Aave v3 Contract Affected] BlockBeats reports that on October 2, in response to SlowMist's report that the Safe module used in Aave v3's looping strategy was exploited, resulting in a loss of about 114.09 ETH (approximately $310,000), Aave founder Stani Kulechov stated that the incident was not an attack on the Aave v3 contract. Stani Kulechov said the involved module is a third-party external adapter built on top of Aave v3, and this incident does not affect Aave v3 itself. Previously, BlockBeats reported that Aave... This incident reminds me that on-chain interactions really need to distinguish between the main protocol and the external adapters layered on top; many pitfalls actually lie in authorization and composition layers. Seeing everything being called a hack on the leader easily turns panic into narrative. Do you usually verify contract ownership one by one, or just rely on audit reports? 👇👇👇 $BTC $ETH $LINK
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