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ETH at $2700, are you stuck?
ETF inflows just broke after seven consecutive days, the Glamsterdam testnet is still running, and the price dropped from 2805 back to 2630, sideways for a whole week—but just as you hesitate whether to cut losses, the box has quietly changed hands. Is this wave a "dead water after a failed breakout," or the last shakeout before the main uptrend?
First, look at the surface: it can't rise, but it hasn't crashed either.
On September 21, it surged to 2805, everyone shouted 3000, but then it dropped back to 2630 in five days. For the following week, it oscillated between 2630-2750, and when you open the candlestick chart, it looks exactly like a flatline on an ECG. Nearly 7 days flat, up 7-11% in the last 30 days, market cap 326 billion, still number two. To put it plainly, this is not a crash, but a high-level consolidation after a failed surge.
But do you know what’s most painful?
At the 2700 level, all the "ETF inflows + upgrade testing" have already been priced in. You’re not bottom fishing; you’re gambling on direction at the box’s midpoint.
First thing: ETF money has stopped.
The week of September 21, ETH ETF net inflow was 690 million, the strongest week since late August. Everyone got excited, shouting "institutions are here."
Then?
On the 28th, inflows dropped to only 17.1 million, and on the 29th, it turned negative with a net outflow of 2.81 million. The seven-day inflow streak ended.
Assets under management still at 17.8 billion, accounting for 5.4% of market cap, with a 30-day cumulative inflow of 980 million. The money hasn’t fled, but the slope has flattened. In plain language: institutions are still here, but not rushing to buy.
Are you expecting ETFs to keep buying explosively every day to push ETH to 3000? Wake up, buying momentum is slowing, not accelerating.
Second thing: Glamsterdam testnet is running, but the market isn’t buying the narrative.
Sepolia fork target is September 28, a public test before the mainnet upgrade. Fusaka was launched last December to expand L2 capacity, and now Glamsterdam is the next step.
The logic is clear: upgrade launch → faster, cheaper L2 → increased value of ETH settlement layer → institutions more willing to stake.
But the market rewards execution, not expectations. If the testnet has issues and the mainnet is delayed, the price will drop first as a warning. Only if the testnet runs smoothly and the mainnet is confirmed can the second wave ignite.
The sideways movement you see now is the market waiting for an answer: will Glamsterdam work or not?
Third thing: Technicals tell you 2700 is not a breakout point.
The path is clear:
September 15 low at 2357 → September 18 above 2600 → September 21 surged to 2805 → September 23 dropped back to 2637 → then a week sideways between 2630-2750.
The 2700 you see is right at the upper-middle edge of the box. This is not a breakout; it’s a turnover zone.
Resistance above: 2740-2750 (repeated supply) → 2780-2805 (this round’s top) → 2810 (no volume breakout, forget about 3000)
Support below: 2650-2660 (box lower edge) → 2630 (September 23-24 low) → 2550 (important structure) → 2400 (deep retracement target)
Daily chart fell back from overbought and flattened, 4-hour neutral, volume sharply contracted from the huge volume on the 21st. This is turnover, not a crash. But the direction after turnover depends on whether 2630 holds.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
ETF 30-day cumulative net inflow 980 million, institutions haven’t fled
Glamsterdam testnet running, upgrade narrative intact
BitMine and other treasuries continuously hoarding ETH, close to 5% of circulating supply
RWA/tokenized stocks still on ETH, settlement layer status solid
DeFi TVL rebounded from 69.2 billion to 95.4 billion, on-chain share over half
On the other side:
ETF seven-day inflow streak broken, buying momentum slowing
ETH/BTC still low, funds not shifting to Ethereum
BTC weak around 83000, breaking 82600; if ETH can’t hold 2650
2700 already priced in the good news, not cheap chips
Still 45% below ATH 4950, heavy overhead resistance
Key level 2700, only $70 above the death line at 2630.
Resistance above: 2750 (must hold to talk about next leg) → 2810 (volume confirmation) → 3000
Support below: 2650-2660 (box lower edge) → 2630 (break to reduce positions) → 2550 → 2400
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Aggressive:
Light long positions near 2700, stop loss at 2628. First target 2750, second target 2800. Reduce half at 2750. Don’t be greedy; box trading profits come from discipline.
Conservative:
Wait for 2630-2660 to consider going long, stop loss 2545. Better entry near 2550. If not reached, hold small position and wait. Let retail chase highs.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if volume breaks and holds above 2810, with a pullback not breaking 2750; target 3000. Fake breakouts should be abandoned immediately. All gains below 2810 are box rebounds, not trends.
Short:
Light short on weak rallies at 2740-2750, stop loss 2815, target 2630. Don’t short near 2630; that’s the box lower edge and easy to get caught.
Position sizing: single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital, leverage within 3-5x.
Risk control priorities (memorize):
Daily close below 2630 → reduce positions and wait, next supports 2550, 2400
ETH ETF continuous net outflow → 2700 likely to fail
BTC breaks 82600 → reduce ETH positions accordingly
Major Glamsterdam testnet failure → short-term expectation crash
ETH now looks like Bitcoin before its 2020 breakout—
Everyone is waiting for 3000, but no one wants to endure the box at 2700.
The day 2630 breaks, you’ll realize:
It’s not that ETH won’t rise, it’s that you chased highs at the box’s upper edge again.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI Trump renaming AI to SI is not just a play on words but a strategic signal to seize the definition rights and governance rule-making authority of "superintelligence." The executive order requires federal legislative recommendations within 60 days and enlists tech giants to sign voluntary safety agreements. The White House is pursuing a "soft regulation + industry collaboration" approach that fosters innovation while controlling risks. The America.gov portal further positions the government as the first testing ground for SI applications. This is a mid-term positive for computing power, AI security, and government cloud sectors, but the establishment of a regulatory framework also means rising compliance costs. Against the backdrop of high long-term US Treasury yields and pressure on risk assets, this news may boost tech stock sentiment in the short term but is unlikely to reverse the market logic dominated by macro liquidity.#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $BTC
The biggest opponent in the market is never the candlestick chart, but the desires hidden deep in your heart.
When the public is panicking, you must dare to calmly assess the opportunities; when the market is in a frenzy, you need to know how to restrain yourself and exit. Trading is inherently a game against human nature, and your judgment will rarely align with the emotions of the majority.
Do not seek conformity in trading, nor look everywhere for people to agree with your views. Many people trade not because they trust their own judgment, but because they want to find a crowd to cheer them on. Once the market fluctuates, a few words from others can easily disrupt the original plan.
Trading from start to finish is a battle with yourself.
Overcome greed by not blindly increasing positions when the market surges; overcome fear by not panic-selling at the lows; overcome wishful thinking by not hoping the market will forcibly move in your expected direction. Continuously review your trades, constantly correct yourself, and stick to your rules to succeed in the market over the long term.
Market opportunities are never lacking, but very few can stay true to themselves.
The above is only personal insight and does not constitute any investment advice. US core PCE for August came in at 3.0% YoY, below the 3.3% expected. The monthly figure was 0.2%, also softer than the 0.3% forecast. The market reacted almost immediately: the US Dollar Index slipped toward 101, gold jumped roughly $14, and $BTC surged more than $1,000. 🚀 What does it mean? At least for now, there’s less pressure for another rate hike in October. New York Fed President Williams also said there’s no rush to raise rates, adding another layer to the market’s interpretation. So ye🔥In a volatile market, the easiest way to lose money is by "guessing ahead."
📊BTC currently has no clear room to move up or down, with 85200 acting as resistance and 82500 as support, and the price is grinding back and forth in between.
🧱The long-term cycle is the same; above 82000 still holds defensive significance for now; if this area breaks, then support around 75000 needs to be watched.
🚨So I’m not in a hurry to stamp a "second rise" yet.
To strengthen again, we need to wait for the right-side structure to appear first. Time hasn’t fully passed, structure isn’t confirmed, betting early is prone to being shaken out repeatedly.
💵What’s more noteworthy is that Coinbase is again showing a significant negative premium, indicating some US-based funds are exiting.
But fund outflow doesn’t necessarily mean the market will fall; what really matters is whether sustained net inflows reappear later.
🎯Now it comes down to three words: **Wait for confirmation.**
Price confirms a breakout, funds confirm inflow, trend confirms establishment.
Patience may seem slow, but in this kind of market, it’s often more valuable than acting rashly.
Do you think BTC will break 82500 first, or take out 85200 first?
For personal record only, not trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $SOON Don't rise anymore, my 10u ant position will explode at 0.5Micron's earnings report is approaching, AI storage demand is heating up, and the computing power narrative is spilling over into the decentralized AI sector. As a leader, WLD is expected to be driven along. I lean slightly bullish in the short term but remain cautious of a shakeout. On the four-hour chart, it has rebounded over 50% from the low of 0.4786, showing divergence with the one-hour pullback; current price is 0.5401, up 6.9% in 24h, with a trading volume of 336 million. 1.999 billion is not money already lost
$BTC is still some distance from 80,405.
This number is calculated assuming a drop below that level.
How this number is calculated:
Add up all the long positions placed below 80,405.
When the price hits a certain level, that level’s positions are sold by the system.
Scanning downwards, the total amount scanned out is 1.999 billion.
Common misunderstanding:
It represents intensity, not balance.
The previous round with the same criteria was only a few hundred million.
This time it piled up to nearly 2 billion, indicating more people borrowed money to go long than last time.
If it really falls to 80,405, the positions sold are not just at that level.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC、多家财库同步增持 $BTC Brothers, don't just focus on BTC's ups and downs these days; what really deserves attention might be U.S. Treasuries.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has broken through 5.6%, hitting a new high since 2002. Long-term interest rates continue to rise, and the market worries not just about a single rate hike, but about long-term inflation, fiscal deficits, and debt supply pressure.
Interestingly, the expectation for a rate hike in October has dropped from 70% to 50%. In other words, the market's real concern may not be short-term rate hikes, but that long-term interest rates remain high.
Additionally, hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash U.S. Treasuries, accounting for about 7% of tradable U.S. Treasuries, with some involving high-leverage basis trades. If bond market volatility expands and high-leverage positions are forced to liquidate, liquidity pressure could further intensify.
This is also why BTC's rebound shouldn't be rushed.
Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 83,500, with 85,000 as resistance and 82,000 as key support. Until long-term interest rates stabilize, BTC's rebound potential will naturally be limited.
In fact, investing ultimately pursues more than just account numbers. When you accumulate enough assets to support your life, you gain the confidence to choose not to work overtime, to spend time with family, and to live more slowly.
At that time, money is not just money; it is an extension of time, as well as dignity and a sense of security.
So don't frequently trade just to catch every fluctuation now. First, see if U.S. Treasury yields can stabilize, then see if BTC can hold 82,000.
If the bond market isn't stable, wait; if BTC isn't confirmed, don't rush in. Opportunities are always there; don't disrupt your rhythm because of a momentary impulse. #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 The 30-year US Treasury yield has broken 5.6%, reaching a new high since 2002, while the October rate hike expectation has dropped to 50%. This divergence indicates that the market is pricing in long-term inflation and fiscal risks rather than the short-term interest rate path. As the anchor for global asset pricing, the sustained high long-end yields directly suppress risk asset valuations, limiting BTC's rebound potential. More dangerously, hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash and US Treasuries; once high-leverage basis trades deleverage, it will amplify bond market volatility and drain liquidity, triggering cross-market shocks. Bond market signals are indeed more worth watching than BTC's short-term fluctuations. Until long-end yields stabilize, risk assets are unlikely to have systemic opportunities, and defense remains the main theme. $BTC $SOL Below is a revised version more like a crypto news flash + market analysis in Chinese, softening the original wording while adding market structure and risk information:
Writing
🚨 #ZEC is once again approaching $1700, experiencing intense high-level shakeout!
Commentary from the leader | Market breakdown
$ZEC previously dropped quickly from around $1697 to near $1360, then rebounded to about $1460, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 4.6%. After this round of significant volatility, market focus has shifted back to the main themes of institutional product expansion and protocol upgrades.
Currently, the Grayscale-related ETF split has been implemented, and 21Shares' European ETP continues to provide institutional access; meanwhile, the NU7 upgrade plan is expected to enter testnet on October 6 and mainnet on November 5. Fundamental catalysts remain, but short-term capital speculation has clearly intensified.
📌 The key point: continuous positive news does not mean the price can rise indefinitely.
$ZEC surged from around $800 to near $1700, more than doubling in this phase. The current high-level repeated oscillations and frequent long upper shadows on the candlesticks indicate significant profit-taking and selling pressure near $1700.
Therefore, at this stage, more attention should be paid to the strength of support after pullbacks rather than simply chasing gains.
🔎 Key ZEC levels:
• Around $1460: current rebound zone
• Around $1400: short-term key support to watch
• Around $1300: important defense zone if $1400 breaks down That year, there was a repair shop at the entrance of the neighborhood, and I squatted nearby waiting.
I heard two masters talking about virtual currency, saying it was like picking up money.
I went home and downloaded the app, but didn’t understand anything.
First, I bought some $BTC.
That night after buying, I checked my phone three times.
My wife asked if I had a stomach ache.
I said it was nothing, just couldn’t sleep.
Later, I heard others say another one was good too.
So I tried $ETH.
After the fee was deducted, I stared at the balance in a daze for a long time.
Tinkering back and forth, the money didn’t increase, but I lost weight.
Once when it dropped sharply, I was stubborn and added more.
After adding, it kept falling, and I sat on the sofa for a long time without speaking.
The child called me to play, but I wasn’t in the mood.
During that time, my temper was bad, and I didn’t eat well.
Later, I deleted the app.
Deleted it, then installed it again, installed it then deleted it again.
Slowly I realized I was too impatient.
Now I only keep a little $SOL.
When it rises, I don’t shout; when it falls, I don’t curse.
I watch the order posts in the group as entertainment.
When someone urges me to rush in, I just say wait a bit longer.
No borrowing money, no going all in, no touching what I don’t understand.
Being able to sleep peacefully is more important than making quick money.
Earning is luck, losing is tuition.
This business is for fun, not for a living.
These few words of mine are all paid for with real money. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 Inflation is cooling down, but BTC still hasn't pulled up? I'm curious to see who will be the first to lose patience this time. Once the US August PCE data is released, I guess many shorts will start watching the market again. Core PCE year-on-year is 3.0%, overall PCE year-on-year is 3.4%, both below market expectations. Previously, there was concern that inflation wouldn't be contained, but now suddenly this happens, giving room for speculation on rate cuts.
However, I advise everyone not to get too excited too soon. The decline in inflation is indeed good news, but the Fed hasn't promised an immediate rate cut. The market's favorite move is to use good news to push prices up first, lure in the momentum buyers, and then hit them hard afterward.
Based on the previous market, BTC rebounded from 82556 and once touched above 84000 again. Next, I will watch the 84000 to 84500 range; only a volume breakout here will give a chance to challenge 85000 again. If it gets smashed back near 83000, then the quality of this rebound needs to be reconsidered.
For ETH, I’m watching if 2700 can hold, with further targets between 2720 and 2750. For SOL, I’m watching 120; if it can’t reclaim this level, there’s no need to rush to chase for now.
Personally, I’m still leaning bullish, especially when macro pressures show signs of easing. But going long also requires picking the right spots; chasing right after good news is released often means buying at the peak of short-term sentiment.
Also, don’t just get excited by the candlesticks. The performance of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stock market after opening can all influence the crypto market’s next direction.
Damn, the more suddenly the market gives candy, the more I want to first check if there’s a knife inside the candy wrapper.#US 30-year Treasury yield breaks 5.6%, hitting a new high since 2002
The leader has something to say
The US 30-year Treasury yield has broken 5.6%, the highest since 2002. The 10-year yield is also above 5.2%. The long-end pressure has not eased.
Interestingly, the October rate hike expectation has fallen from 70% to 50%. Short-term expectations have dropped, but long-term rates have not come down. This indicates it's not just about rate hikes; fiscal deficits, bond supply, and term premiums are all pushing yields up.
Hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash Treasuries, accounting for 7% of tradable Treasuries, a historical high. Many are high-leverage basis trades. With the long end continuing to rise and bond market volatility increasing, these positions are forced to deleverage, which will impact overall liquidity.
For risk assets, a 5.6% risk-free rate is the ceiling. BTC is unlikely to strengthen independently in the short term.
I have already entered a long BTC position at 83,000. Stop loss is set at 81,500, with targets between 86,000 and 87,000. Tonight is the PCE report, tomorrow night Micron's earnings, and Friday is the nonfarm payrolls—three events packed together. My position is light; I am not betting on a single direction.
No chasing highs or selling lows, waiting for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set. Good luck.#October rate hike expectations retreat, tonight's PCE is key
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
In the past two days, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 70% to about 50-50. It's not that inflation has truly come down, but Williams' comment of "no rush" + oil prices retreating + consumer confidence collapsing made the market discount the "continuous rate hikes" for now.
Core PCE year-on-year at 3.3% and month-on-month at 0.3% is the watershed.
If tonight the core month-on-month is ≥0.3% and consumption#US August Core PCE Drops to 3%
[Old Leek Observation] $BTC
US August Core PCE is out: year-on-year 3.0%, market originally expected 3.3%; month-on-month 0.2%, expected 0.3%.
This data is somewhat positive for the crypto market.
The reason is simple: inflation is lower than the market expected, so concerns about the Fed continuing to raise rates in October will decrease. After the data release, BTC quickly pulled back from around $83,000 to $84,400. But don’t interpret this as "rate cut expectations returning."
Core PCE is still at 3%, which is still noticeably above the Fed’s 2% target.
Also, this consumption data is strong, with August personal consumption expenditures rising 0.9% month-on-month. So it looks more like:
Inflation pressure is a bit less than expected, but US consumers have not clearly cooled down yet. For BTC, the short-term key is whether $84,000 can turn from a resistance level back into support.
If it can hold above $84,000 tonight, then looking at $85,000–$86,000, the technical structure will be much better than before.
If it falls back below $83,000, then today’s PCE rebound can’t be considered successful.
Entry: $84,200–84,800
Take profit: $86,000 / $87,500 / $89,000 / $92,000 / $94,000
Stop loss: $82,900 Damn, PCE finally gave the bulls some oxygen. Can BTC surge straight up this time?
The just-released US August inflation data is quite something. Core PCE year-over-year is 3.0%, while the market originally expected 3.3%; overall PCE year-over-year is 3.4%, also below the 3.7% expectation. Both data points are below expectations, so the market's tense nerves can finally relax a bit.
After the news came out, BTC briefly broke above 85,000, and gold also rebounded. A few days ago, we were still worried about the Fed continuing to raise rates, but now traders have to readjust their expectations.
However, I won’t go all-in just based on one data release. There’s a detail here: this PCE involved adjustments in statistical methods, some inflation decline is influenced by data revisions, and the 3.0% core inflation is still far from the Fed’s 2% target.
For BTC, I’m watching if 85,000 can hold. If it holds, then I’ll observe if there’s sustained buying around 85,500; if it rallies then falls back, 84,000 becomes my key short-term defense level.
For ETH, I’m watching 2,700 and 2,750; for SOL, first see if 120 can hold, then consider breakout opportunities near 122. These are all trading observation points, and I’ll adjust based on real-time market conditions.
Personally, I’m still bullish, but this time I’d rather wait for a pullback confirmation than chase the news with high leverage.
Damn, macro data lights the fire, but how far the market can burn depends on whether the funds are willing to keep buying.Today really feels like the hard mode has been activated.
After 8:30 PM, gold surged.
Then Bitcoin also followed with a strong rally,
pushing almost all major altcoins up.
However, after 8:45 PM, gold started to weaken.
After 9:30 PM, gold went straight down without looking back,
which also caused Bitcoin to quickly drop after the US stock market opened.
At this time, major altcoins were all dropping sharply,
wiping out the bullish trend that had just been established.
Around 9 o'clock, I saw Bitcoin surging strongly upward.
From a pure price action perspective,
Bitcoin had already broken out of the consolidation platform.
So I went long on a basket of major altcoins.
When Bitcoin suddenly dropped sharply, I felt the bears were still very strong,
so I cleared all my positions during the rebound.
To sum it up in one sentence,
recently it really has been hard mode.
It's difficult not to be swayed by the market.
The key is to have the determination to admit mistakes and correct them promptly.
I just hope the recent wear and tear can be minimized a bit. 【On-Chain Trading Activity｜ZEC】
Monitored address 0xa399 opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: 1,449.39 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 30,480.57 USD
▪ Leverage: 10xUS Core PCE significantly below expectations! Inflation cooling down, watch if $BTC can break through 85500!!!
US August Core PCE annual rate is only 3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.3%, hitting a six-month low since February. Inflation easing means less pressure for the Fed to raise rates further, which is positive for risk assets.
After the data release, the market will be somewhat conflicted:
Theoretically, cooling inflation is negative for the dollar and positive for Bitcoin, so it should rally; but note that positive news often leads to "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
Previously, our short positions around 85000-85500 have already faced pressure and pulled back. Now with the positive data, the key focus is whether it can reclaim the resistance at 85500.
- If it breaks and holds above 85500 with volume, the consolidation pattern will be broken, and the short strategy should be abandoned;
- If it fails to hold after the breakout, it will likely return to range-bound trading, continuing the oscillation that benefits both longs and shorts.
Key support below is at 83700, with strong support at 82700. Upcoming non-farm payroll data is also important; avoid heavy positions betting solely on news, as news-driven volatility can be sharp. Keep leverage low. $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Does a more prosperous Layer 2 necessarily mean ETH will rise?
Layer 2 networks help Ethereum handle more transactions, which is an important achievement in scaling. However, the link between "Layer 2 growth" and "ETH price increase" still lacks the value transmission mechanism.
If Layer 2 uses ETH to pay for data and settlement costs, and brings more assets and applications back into Ethereum's security system, the mainnet will gain stronger network effects. But if user growth mainly accumulates in independent tokens, independent sequencers, and closed liquidity, the value ETH gains may be less than the apparent activity.
Therefore, evaluating Layer 2 should not only count the number of transactions but also consider settlement frequency, data demand, cross-layer liquidity, and the role ETH plays in the economic system.
I still am optimistic about $ETH's scaling path, but optimism does not mean avoiding the value capture issue. A truly strong ecosystem not only gets more people to use it but also ensures that the scale of usage can be reflected in the underlying asset.This morning $BTC bounced back from 83,000 to above 84,000, and $ETH and $SOL also caught a breather, with the comment section starting to shout "the bottom is here."
A reminder: a rebound and a reversal are two different things. Every upward move in a low-volume market could just be tricking those who missed out into getting on board, only to get stuck halfway up the mountain. The easiest to bust at the table are those who go all in as soon as the cards look a bit better—they're not betting on the cards, but on their own emotions.
The positions truly worth adding to are those taken only after the price has "proven itself" with volume. With this little volume now, no matter how good the bounce looks, just watch for now. Impatience is the number one reason retail investors lose money. Did you hold back this morning?"Gold is really a bit tricky to handle intraday this time 😂
The platform fees are relatively high, so the cost becomes quite obvious after a few short-term trades; on MT5, it's easy to lose position due to volatility, so even if the direction is correct, the rhythm gets disrupted first.
Currently, gold is fluctuating around $4200. The latest PCE data is moderate, and market expectations for an October rate hike have clearly cooled down. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike once fell to about 37%. The dollar and US Treasury yields are under pressure, providing some support for gold.
Next, the key is whether it can hold steady around 4200. On the upside, watch the 4225–4300 range; on the downside, first look for support near 4100.
The high interest rate environment is not completely over yet. For gold to continue strengthening, besides safe-haven funds, we also need to see how the dollar, yields, and subsequent employment data cooperate.
The more volatile the intraday short-term moves are, the more important it is not to just focus on direction; trading costs and position control are equally important.
#Gold #XAUUSD #OctoberRateHike #PCE #FederalReserve #PreciousMetals$BTC BTC 30-minute level
This ID's view: The current 30-minute trend is forming the first upward central pivot, which is a continuation of the uptrend, characterized by oscillating consolidation and repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Entry: Wait for a minor-level bullish divergence + bottom fractal, preferably buying low at the central pivot or at the third buy point after breaking through ZG.
Stop loss: Short-term defense is placed below the minor-level low; the ultimate defense for the central pivot layout is below ZD, and breaking through it means support fails.
Chan Theory structure
After the low point starts rising, it enters central pivot oscillation; only breaking through ZG upward can continue the trend, while making a new low breaks the upward structure.
Wyckoff volume-price matching observation
Volume shrinks at the end of the rise, volume expands during the rally, volume contracts during the pullback which is a shakeout, and breaking through ZG requires confirmation with a volume-increasing bullish candle.
Core observation points
Wait for volume expansion to stand above ZG to open upward space; once it breaks below ZD, abandon the bullish idea. Ondo has new expansions again
Ondo Finance is collaborating with Kakaopay Securities for the global distribution of Korean stocks.
The on-chain US stock logic is beginning to expand to Asian stocks
Both parties agreed to cooperate in three areas:
Building an international distribution framework for Korean listed stocks;
Joint research to support tokenized infrastructure for global distribution;
Establishing a joint working group to explore business opportunities for overseas retail investors.
$ONDO
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $UNI
Uniswap remains a major decentralized exchange across the Ethereum ecosystem. I’m watching trading volume, liquidity, and on-chain activity to understand whether decentralized trading demand continues developing.🔥This data is indeed impressive this time, but I still dare not call it a “bull return” immediately.
📈The reason is simple: PCE has cooled down.
August PCE year-on-year is 3.4%, core PCE 3.0%, while the US Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2%. Inflation pressure has eased, and economic growth is stronger than previously estimated.
💰The market immediately began to lower the October rate hike expectations, and risk assets like BTC and gold strengthened simultaneously.
BTC has returned to around 85000, ETH back to 2700, SOL approaching 121 again.
🚨But data-driven rallies have an old problem:
The first bullish candle looks the best, but only the next day do we know if it’s deceptive.
So I won’t chase tonight.
📌First, see if 85000 can turn from resistance into support;
📌Then see if Asian session funds continue to buy in;
📌Finally, wait for the nonfarm payrolls to give the market another hit.
Only if these conditions are met is the structure worth reassessing.
Do you think 85000 can hold this time?
For personal record only, not trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 🔥Yesterday we were still saying "ten thousand people crowding at one door," tonight that door just collapsed.
📊The PCE gave a very clear answer: overall inflation in August was 3.4%, core inflation 3.0%, both below market expectations; Q2 GDP growth was revised up again to 2.2%.
📉Inflation is cooling down, but the economy hasn't clearly stalled. This data combination gives the market room to imagine a "soft landing."
💥So the bets on rate hikes cooled off, US Treasury yields went down, and BTC surged back to 85000 in one move.
ETH returned to 2700, and SOL also bounced back near 121.
🧠But the real stimulus isn't this single candlestick, it's that market expectations suddenly changed.
Two weeks ago, we were trading stagflation; now we are trading inflation easing plus economic resilience.
⚠️But I still say: don't announce a bull market just because it rallied overnight.
Whether the Asian session tomorrow accepts it is the key.
🎯85000, do you think it's a starting point or a midway stop?
For personal record only, not trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Citibank believes the SEC may still formulate some crypto regulations, with macro factors continuing to influence risk appetite. The co-founder of CoinRoutes pointed out that the issue of Bitcoin's treatment as bank collateral remains unresolved, and the current market has not yet entered a true FOMO phase. Bitwise's survey of 15 large institutions shows that discussions have shifted from whether to allocate to how to allocate, with Bitcoin classified alongside gold as a store of value, and institutional allocation ratios mostly between one and two percent.
The market situation is more straightforward. BTC is currently priced around 84565, with MACD golden cross expanding, and the price has risen above the moving average system resistance level, indicating bulls are still dominant without weakening. The liquidation chart shows a high density of 50x to 100x leveraged short positions stacked above 86184; if the price continues to rise, it will trigger forced short covering, creating an upward liquidity gap. The main liquidation target zone is between 87200 and 88000. Just turned the car into a back street to pick up food, glanced at the liquidation chart, and the call to expedite the order came first, but I didn't answer.
Entry zone is set between 84300 and 84700, with a defensive stop loss at 83500, take profit initially at 87200, and if broken through, then look above 88000 liquidity pool. If it falls below 83500, the short squeeze logic fails, and I won't hold the position.
$BTC
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
@OKX星球 On September 30, Binance announced that its payment service Binance Pay has integrated with the QR code payment infrastructure of Japan's mainstream mobile payment platform PayPay. Foreign tourists visiting Japan who have completed identity verification can directly scan PayPay merchant QR codes through the Binance app or present a payment code to complete payments, supporting settlement using stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, and crypto assets like BTC, BNB, ETH.
During the transaction, crypto assets will be automatically converted to Japanese yen at real-time exchange rates and settled to merchants. Tourists do not need to exchange fiat currency in advance or bear additional on-chain transaction fees. This feature is only available to tourists visiting Japan; local Japanese residents are currently not supported.
Binance Pay is currently continuing to promote interoperability with national QR code payment standards across countries in the Asia-Pacific region.Last summer, even the convenience store owner downstairs was talking about this.
I overheard while buying cigarettes, went home and searched.
The more I searched, the more hooked I got, feeling like everyone else was making money and if I didn’t get in, I’d lose out.
My first purchase was $BTC.
After buying, my hands trembled, like I was doing something sneaky.
The next day it went up a bit, so I treated myself to a barbecue.
The third day it dropped back down, and I even felt bad about the barbecue money.
Later I heard people hyping $ETH.
I followed and bought some.
After fees, I stared at the balance in a daze for a long time.
At that time, I was distracted at work too, secretly checking my phone during meetings.
My boss asked if I hadn’t slept well.
I said yeah, I’ve been having insomnia lately.
But it wasn’t insomnia, it was those few strings hanging in my heart.
The dumbest thing I did was when it dropped, I wasn’t convinced and bought more.
After topping up, it kept falling, and I was completely numb.
Lying in bed at night doing the math, the more I calculated, the clearer I became.
Eventually, I just deleted the app.
After three days, I installed it again.
Even after reinstalling, I barely bought anything, just checked.
Now I still have a little $SOL left.
When it rises, I don’t add; when it falls, I don’t cut losses.
Friends urge me to rush in, I just smile.
Those screenshots in the group, I stopped believing them long ago.
People who really make money don’t have time to shout every day.
Treat this as entertainment, not a lifeline.
Borrowing money to play will cause trouble sooner or later.
Being able to sleep well is better than anything.
Making money is luck, losing is a lesson.
This little insight of mine was all bought with money.#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 A major news outside the crypto circle, don't just watch it as a spectacle: FTC is launching a comprehensive investigation into top AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, preparing to issue subpoena-like compulsory information requests, investigating "unfair or deceptive practices."
What does this have to do with the $BTC in your hands? AI has been the engine of risk appetite in the US stock market and the entire market over the past two years. Once regulation shifts from "encouraging your innovation" to "investigating your violations," the sector will move from wild growth to being shackled — it may not crash in the short term, but the imagination space at the top will be gradually compressed.
Crypto and AI are now emotions on the same rope. Once the AI narrative cools down, don't expect crypto's risk premium to remain unaffected. I will keep a close eye on this line.⚡ SHORTS WORLD | $BTC
$BTC around $83K–$84K — still a dangerous zone for overleveraged longs.
🔴 Below $82K → $80K comes into focus
🟡 $82K–$85K → expect volatility
🟢 Above $85K with volume → short squeeze risk rises
PCE + US yields could bring another volatility spike. 👀
Don’t chase shorts. Wait for confirmation, watch OI + volume, and protect the SL.
#BTC #ShortsWorld #Crypto #OKXThere will be turbulence tonight, don't press recklessly during the day: focus only on these 3 signals before the data
Non-farm payrolls haven't landed yet, the biggest risk is itchy hands during the day. Before big money shows its stance, the market is usually sticky and fragmented, like a false calm before a storm. Don't switch positions frequently; first mark these three coordinates.
BTC: 83454. Moving sideways for five days, the cage between 83500—85000 is almost at its edge. The ETF is still supporting the bottom, but hot money is waiting for the data. Low volume during the day is normal; the real direction will come at night.
$ENA: 0.252. Second day of pullback, the previous rise was too rapid, so digestion now is not surprising. There is constant resistance above 0.25. It doesn't really follow the overall market sentiment; it profits from interest and fee hedging. If panic pushes it down to 0.22, it should actually be put under close watch. Don't touch it during the day.
DOGE: 0.09395. Meme is the emotional thermometer. If it doesn't continue to weaken during the day, it means the sentiment hasn't dissipated. When the market rebounds, it tends to surge the most; when the market weakens, it often leads the decline. 0.09 is the bottom line.
Before the data night, quick hands are no match for steady eyes. Draw the lines first, then wait for the market to choose sides on its own. This is just a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 【On-Chain Trading Update｜BTC】
Monitored address 0xdd0c opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 84,267.37 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 505,604.21 USD
▪ Leverage: 20x
Note: This address has earned over 308,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +26.82% Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$SOON Leading accounts are bearish, position size is bullish: account long-short ratio 0.7, position ratio 1.24; the difference in the proportion of two types of long positions narrowed by 1.21 percentage points. Divergence is easing, position size still leans bullish; this convergence has not yet aligned the two indicators in the same direction.
$NIGHT Leading accounts are bearish, position size is bullish: account long-short ratio 0.88, position ratio 1.12; the difference in the proportion of two types of long positions expanded by 1.11 percentage points. More bearish accounts, position size still dominated by bulls, the two indicators have not yet aligned.Brothers, today's market really made me laugh.
BTC hovered around 83,000 all day, the US stock market opened and surged to 84,540, then immediately got slammed back to 83,000. The 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.60%, a new high for 2024; the 10-year also broke 5.26%. With funding costs this high, it's already a favor if Bitcoin can hold without crashing. Even tougher is the 84,000 to 85,000 range—Glassnode data shows that long-term holders' chips are highly concentrated here, and sell orders on exchanges are piling up, a double pressure squeezing hard. ETF net inflows have continued for 8 days straight, but the single-day volume dropped to 31.07 million, down 97% from the peak, showing institutional buying is clearly hesitant.
Looking at DOGE, this dead dog is bouncing between 0.09 and 0.10, MACD is flat, and the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all squeezed at 0.09, with no clear direction. The long-short ratio is at 2.50, with 71.4% of people going long, but the buy-sell transaction ratio is only 0.77, meaning for every $1 of active buy orders, there are $1.30 in sell orders—retail holders are holding longs while smart money quietly exits. This structure means that once a stampede happens, it will trigger a chain reaction.
Bitcoin is being crushed by macro and selling pressure, while DOGE is stuck in a dilemma amid chip turnover. I have just one word now—wait.
$BTC $ZEC
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限
#特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI A number worth the attention of everyone holding leveraged long positions in risky assets: The US Chicago PMI for September reported 58.8, with an expectation of only 51.2 and a previous value of 47.1 — jumping from contraction territory straight back to strong expansion, rising 11 points in a single month.
This is good news for the economy, but not necessarily for your long positions. The logic is straightforward: the stronger the data, the less reason the Federal Reserve has to ease quickly, and the more interest rates will hold firm. And what is currently weighing down $BTC and all high-valuation assets is precisely that persistently high long-term interest rate.
So don’t be blindly optimistic just because the "data looks good"; strong data combined with high interest rates is a double-edged sword for bulls. There’s also the big non-farm payrolls event on Friday, so keeping your positions light and saving some bullets is the right approach for a week like this.🔥If you only focus on the “deep pullback,” you might miss a more important change: BTC’s structure is already different.
📉The key point in 2023 is around $25,000.
At that time, although BTC briefly broke through a local secondary high, it didn’t effectively close above the key level, nor did it form a true breakout high. It then quickly fell back, eventually forming a level structure.
📈And now?
BTC has refreshed the weekly high and has consolidated above the previous high.
This shows the market is no longer the same chart as before.
🧱There is also a data point that’s easy to overlook:
The maximum drawdown in the last bear market was about 77%, while this round’s maximum drawdown is about 54%.
The difference in drawdown magnitude clearly means you can’t simply apply last cycle’s drop to this one.
⚠️Of course, a structural change doesn’t mean BTC won’t adjust.
What really needs to be waited for is whether the market can hold the key structure after the next pullback.
That’s the real answer.
Are you more focused on the deep pullback or the weekly structure now?
For personal record only, not trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 NEAR Oh wow, damn, really awesome, brothers 😅😅😅
NEAR is really strong!
In 1 hour it jumped straight from 4.83 to 5.24,
a big bullish candle broke through all moving averages,
MACD golden cross with red bars continuously expanding.
Up 180% in 30 days,
up 171% in 90 days,
up 331% in half a year,
this trend is totally a main upward wave rhythm.
Bitwise just launched the first US spot NEAR ETF, institutional funds keep coming in, this is not random speculation.
$ETH #US30YYieldBreaks5.6% Don't mistake taking profits for a reversal; BTC stuck in the middle is the most frustrating
Ten bosses closed short positions, don't get excited. They've been short for a year, pocketing 7 million U, that's taking profits, not flipping to long. If you treat this as a charge signal, you're most likely setting yourself up at the peak.
BTC current price$ZEC #USIranTalksRestart Micron is releasing its earnings report tonight, with market expectations around $51 billion in revenue and $31.5 earnings per share, and the most explosive point being a gross margin possibly hitting 86%. Such high expectations are all supported by AI; the larger the models and the more inference, the more high-bandwidth memory and storage become insufficient. But a strong earnings report doesn't necessarily mean the stock price will rise; the real focus is whether it can beat expectations and how management guides the next few quarters. Bulls are betting on continued explosive AI demand, while bears are watching for price pressure after domestic storage capacity expansion. Volatility will be high tonight, so don't wait until the market blows up to think about your strategy. $MU🔥Many people are now waiting for a deep pullback like in 2023.
But the question is: Is the current BTC structure really the same?
📉Looking back at 2023, after BTC rebounded to around $25,000, it never truly held above the previous high, only briefly piercing a local secondary high before quickly falling back, eventually forming a clear equal-height structure.
📈But now it's different.
BTC has already made a higher high on the weekly level, and the price has been running above the previous high.
🧱This means the market structure has changed.
Looking at the retracement, the maximum drawdown in this bear market is about 54%, while the previous one was close to 77%.
So, history can be referenced but not directly copied.
⚠️Everyone is waiting for "another deep drop," but what should be asked first is:
Does the current structure really give the same answer?
Do you think this time will replicate 2023, or will it follow a completely different script?
This is just a personal market record and does not constitute trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 #October interest rate hike expectations decline, tonight's PCE is key
$BTC 12-hour level bearish divergence + leak,
Repeatedly pulling back, unable to break above 85000, likely to drop to 80800,
$ETH 12-hour pattern exactly the same as BTC,
Repeatedly encountering resistance around 2730, I take profit on short positions between 2550-2580,
Brothers, are you currently holding short positions waiting for a downturn, or long positions waiting for a breakout? Two days ago I was still shorting $BTC, but last night I admitted my mistake and went long—in the morning the price stood back above 84,000, so this move already gained a full position.
Someone asked: Aren't you the "short god"? You flip faster than turning a page? There's a saying at the poker table: when you play a hand to the river and your opponent's actions completely contradict your expectations, if you stubbornly stick to your original read, that's not determination, that's giving away money. Trading follows the same principle; the core of a thesis is "expectation fulfillment"—when all the expected sell-offs have happened but the price still won't drop, that's the signal for me to flip the table and reverse.
The direction itself isn't valuable; daring to turn around when you're wrong is what counts. My position is here—not a trade call, but telling you which side I'm betting on this round. Are you still waiting on the right side, or are you already in the market? Altcoin deposits to exchanges surged 160%! Who's bottom-fishing, who's running away?
CryptoQuant's latest data exploded: from September 14 to 28, the number of altcoin deposits jumped from 29,800 to 78,000, a 160% increase in two weeks, hitting a near one-year high! The number of deposit addresses also nearly tripled.
In plain terms: a large amount of altcoins are flooding into exchanges, ready to sell.
But strangely, BTC's share remains stuck around 60%, while the market cap share of altcoins outside the top 10 hit a new high since February. The market looks like altcoin season, but on-chain data looks like the night before a sell-off.
My judgment:
✅ Not an immediate crash, but chasing small coins is becoming less cost-effective
✅ Deposits mean "preparing to sell," not "already dumping"
⚠️ Total2 shows higher prices + lower RSI = bearish divergence warning
⚠️ True top signal: deposits keep surging, small coins open high but close low
Three operational tips:
1️⃣ Take profits on altcoin gains in batches, don’t fall in love with the candlesticks
2️⃣ If you haven’t entered, don’t chase hype coins; wait for a pullback to key support
3️⃣ As long as BTC holds, the main trend remains; if BTC crashes, altcoins die first
The most dangerous thing about altcoins is: you think you’re catching the last train, but actually, you’re the one being loaded onto the train.Brothers, to put it simply and plainly, why hasn't Zec crashed yet? This time, the selling is not by the big players, but by early profit-taking retail investors. Why is it stuck at this level? 1400, because the big players are assessing risk. Pulling it higher from this point might cause losses since the chips are already dispersed. Crushing it lower might not make much money because the buying volume isn't enough. Zec has exceeded 1600 twice, but only maintaine$ZEC #USIranTalksRestart 🔥The biggest insight these past two days: don't get emotionally attached to the market before the trend emerges.
🧱BTC is moving sideways between 82600 and 85000, ETH is moving sideways between 2640 and 2740.
It looks lively every day, but the real room to move is limited.
😮💨The most frustrating thing is holding without action: floating profits in the morning, floating losses in the afternoon; just about to stop loss, it pulls back; just about to hold on, it drops again.
This is not about vision, it's the market testing your patience.
💰So I'm ready to change my approach.
Within the range, do swing trades; be cautious near resistance, observe near support, take profits after a few points, and don't stubbornly fight a choppy market.
⚡Wait for BTC to truly break above 85000 or fall below 82600 with confirmation before considering switching to a trend-following strategy.
🎯When there's no clear direction, the best direction is to make fewer mistakes.
Brothers, are you ready to go long, short, or like me, just take small swings back and forth?
For personal record only, not trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 SNDK 4x full position long, floating loss 10.67%, maintenance margin rate only 2.5%, very little room, a slight further drop could cause problems, cannot hold on stubbornly.
HYPE 4x full position long, lost 35.61%, floating loss amount is large, although the margin rate looks higher than SNDK, if the market continues to decline, losses will expand further.
Both are full position modes, the downside of full position is no buffer, it is recommended to consider$ETH #USIranTalksRestart $BTC BTC surges to 85,000, tonight's data will set the direction
BTC pulls back to 85,000: Has the PCE expectation been traded in advance?
Core conclusion: After overselling, a strong rebound recovers 85,000, driven by a combination of technical correction and positive PCE expectations. The mid-term adjustment structure has not completely reversed yet; the volume and the 86,000 resistance after tonight's data release are key.
1. Technical Analysis
1. Candlestick Pattern
The daily chart shows a bullish candle with increased volume#, quickly rising from a low near 82,000. Short-term bullish momentum is returning, but overall it remains within the correction framework after the 87,399 stage high. Currently, this is defined as a rebound correction after a decline, not the start of a new major upward wave.
2. Indicator Signals
The K value of SKDJ has turned upward from the oversold area to 52.5, converging with the D value. After short-term bearish momentum has been fully released, bullish recovery momentum is accumulating; however, the two lines have not yet formed a golden cross, and the mid-term downtrend has not been completely reversed. There is still a possibility of secondary pressure after the rebound.
3. Volume Verification
The 24-hour trading volume is 641 million USDT, significantly increased compared to the previous low-volume phase, indicating incremental funds entering to bottom-fish and support. However, the volume has not yet reached the level of the previous rally, so the sustainability of the rebound requires further volume confirmation.