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ONDO Has the Rails. Price Still Wants Proof.
Ondo secured SEC-registered broker-dealer, ATS and transfer-agent infrastructure in 2025, cleared an SEC investigation without charges, gained FINRA authorizations in July 2026, and joined DTCC Fund/SERV in September.
Yet ONDO remains far below its 2025 peak.
The fundamentals are real. Price still wants usage.
This is a watch, not a long.
$0.40 matters. $0.60 is the first sign sentiment’s turning.
#OndoBlackRockStrategy
$ONDO $PUMP is pulling against the concept stocks by 5%, RSI at 70.2, only bearish
$PUMP currently at 0.00591, +5.0% in 24h, closing has already jumped above the Bollinger upper band. I'm directly bearish: the hotter the rise, the more real the overbought condition.
First, the daily RSI is 70.2 overbought, Bollinger band width at 57.0%, current price stands outside the band, only a pullback trigger is missing;
The rise is still isolated, US crypto concept stocks average -1.62%, Coinbase -1.41%, MARA -3.29%, $PUMP is charging alone outside;
Leverage hasn't followed, funding rate 5e-05 neutral, open interest only increased 3.84% compared to record, volume ratio 1.928 relying entirely on spot chasing the high end.
The market is pulling back with high-level divergence, $PUMP is close to the 30-day range top at 0.963, risk appetite neutral.
Resistance above: 0.006029 (24h high)
Support below: 0.005165 (4h SAR)
Next, it will test 0.006029 first, but that's just a short point; breaking below 0.005165 will accelerate the drop. Short at 0.00591, stop loss above 0.006029, first target 0.005165. Like and follow, will alert you immediately on breakout.
$PUMP $BTCPCE positive effects fading? Retail investors stubbornly hold on, how much longer will the “meat grinder” of BTC and ETH keep turning!
1. Market Status: Positive effects dulled, volume shrinks into deadlock
① Core PCE unexpectedly hits a new low, but BTC and ETH rebounds are extremely perfunctory, with serious lack of bullish momentum.
② The 4-hour moving average system continues to apply pressure, candlesticks repeatedly scrape within a narrow range, and the extreme volume contraction indicates that major players are watching coldly, waiting for floating chips to collapse on their own.
2. Capital Bottom Cards: Leverage retreating, retail investors stubbornly hold
① Open interest has plummeted sharply from highs, funding rates are close to zero, and the previous frenzy of leverage has been almost completely cleaned out.
② But warning signs remain glaring: the long-short ratio stays high, retail bulls stubbornly hold during fluctuations and even buy against the trend. Major players will not push up with such a heavy burden; the “kill retail investors” script is very likely not over yet.
3. Emotional Landmine: Liquidity drying up, market turning near
① Trading on the order book is thin, buy and sell depth extremely sparse. Under the liquidity trap, a small amount of capital can trigger violent spikes, easily causing simultaneous long and short liquidations.
② The BTC ecosystem frequently suffers setbacks, and ETH positive factors still need time. The market is like a spring losing elasticity, accumulating energy for the next violent move.
Core Summary:
All positive factors have shown decline, retail investors won’t retreat, major players won’t push up. This is an extreme "endurance" war of attrition. Abandon illusions, strictly control positions, endure this darkest moment of liquidity drought, and wait for truly bloodied chips to emerge—that will be the time to break the deadlock!
$BTC $ETH 1001 01:49
The National Day holiday starts today. I wish everyone to make money and also get a good night's sleep.
$SOON Yesterday I posted that shorting is not possible in the short term; there will be at least one more wave of rally. I opened a long position yesterday afternoon at 0.0437 and closed it at 0.0537. I don't remember if I closed it manually or if the take profit was triggered; I was sleeping last night.
Considering its 24-hour trading volume exceeding 100 million, plus the boost from $BTC last night, it indeed rallied.
$CAP also cannot be shorted because this kind of slow rise hides dangers; a sudden crash is unlikely, but a sharp surge is very possible. Either go long or do nothing, but definitely don't short unless you have enough bullets.
When trading any coin in any direction, you need to consider the recent overall trend of BTC when opening positions. I don't know how many people completely ignore BTC. Since August, BTC's overall trend has been upward with only minor pullbacks, so shorting requires extreme caution. "The Battle for Support: Can BTC Hold 83K?"
$BTC has returned once again to the critical defense line of 82.5K–83K. If the bulls can hold this level, the rebound path may target 84K, with a further challenge at 85K; if it breaks down, the pressure could spread to altcoins.
$HYPE is trading around 89, with 88–90 as short-term support; after stabilizing, attention turns to the 92–95 target. OKB is positioned near 117, with support between 115–117 and upward resistance at 120–123.
On the macro front, PCE and non-farm payroll wage data, Micron's earnings report, and high U.S. Treasury yields may all disrupt risk appetite. In a volatile market, a single bullish candle does not signify a reversal; sustained strength and volume are more reliable. Waiting for confirmation is more important than chasing gains.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 "BTC, ETH, or Long-Term Consolidation: Capital Divergence, Crowded Leverage"
Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently been stuck in narrow ranges. BTC surged to 87,000 before retreating to around 82,000 for consolidation; ETH has been fluctuating between 2,600 and 2,700, with several attempts to break 2,800 being pushed back.
Capital flow is clearly divergent. According to JPMorgan data, BTC spot ETFs have replenished about two-thirds of previous outflows, while ETH has only replenished about one-third, indicating money prefers BTC. ETH's long-short ratio is 1.32, with over $900 million potential liquidations stacked below, showing leverage is too crowded.
The macro environment is also unhelpful: the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new high since 2007, fueling rate hike expectations and suppressing risk asset rallies. VanEck's 2026 outlook suggests the market is more likely to enter consolidation rather than a sharp rise or crash, recommending a 1% to 3% BTC allocation with dollar-cost averaging to manage volatility.
Overall, the two major mainstream coins are unlikely to trend unilaterally in the short term; longer-term consolidation may be the main theme. Don't rush to bet on direction, manage your positions well, and wait for signals.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $SNDK — 4x full-position long, currently showing around -10.67% floating P&L. The maintenance margin rate is only about 2.5%, leaving very little room if price moves further against the position. A relatively small additional decline could put the position under serious pressure. $HYPE — 4x full-position long, currently around -35.61%. The floating loss is already substantial. Although its margin situation looks stronger than SNDK, continued downside would increase the loss quickly. The common i$ETH is currently around $2,692.72. I opened a short near $2,715.69, and the position is currently showing around 2.53% floating profit. I also opened a $SOL short around $120.95, with price near $119.71, putting that position around 3.07% in floating profit. So why am I still watching for downside? $ETH has tested the $2,750 area several times but hasn't been able to establish a sustained breakout. At the same time, broader market flows remain something to watch, while $BTC is struggling aroundA Canadian-listed company has reportedly started shifting a small portion of its treasury exposure from physical gold into SOL, purchasing roughly C$125K worth of Solana, representing around 6% of estimated net assets. The headline sounds bigger than the actual trade. This isn't necessarily a company abandoning gold and going all-in on crypto. It's better viewed as a small treasury diversification experiment. The core balance sheet still revolves around BTC holdings and cash, while SOL is being Just spotted an address holding roughly 7,500 ETH in a leveraged short, with an average entry around $3,420. ETH is currently trading near $2,740, leaving the position with an estimated unrealized loss of roughly $5M. The liquidation level is reported around $4,480, so liquidation isn't immediately close. But the size of the floating loss is already enormous. What makes this position interesting is the journey: Short near $3.4K → ETH rallies → position stays open → loss keeps accumulating. Inste$SOL While its on-chain transaction activity can be independently checked, some important parts of the project—particularly reserve arrangements, token unlock schedules, and related treasury information—still depend heavily on disclosures from the team. At the moment, there doesn't appear to be independent, continuously updated proof that allows the market to verify the project's reserves in real time. That doesn't automatically mean there is a problem, but it does create an information gap forJust after 1 a.m., I had just turned my phone brightness to the lowest, took two bites of instant noodles, when a brother in the group suddenly said: "Bro, is there still hope for FIL? I bought in during the 2021 wave, my kid is already in kindergarten."
I didn't dare reply immediately.
If I replied, it would be lying to him; if I didn't, it would seem like I'm avoiding him. FIL is at 1.06 now, down half a percent today, but up over 13% this week. However, this increase is like nothing to someone who held on from over two hundred dollars, just a ripple. Back then he told me "Storage will change the world," and I laughed at him. Now I can't laugh.
All I could reply was: Brother, this game is no longer the story it used to be. Don't ask about turning it around; first ask yourself if you can still sleep at night. He didn't reply. I guess he left the group. $FIL $ETH It seems like every time the A-share market closes, $CXMT suddenly starts showing strength. But once the market opens again, the momentum quickly fades and the price action reveals a completely different picture. The frustrating part is that the broader A-share market isn't providing much support either. So the after-hours strength looks more like isolated momentum than a genuine market-wide move. For now, I’m watching whether the next session can actually hold the gains rather than simplyThe liquidity above has been plundered, while the liquidity below remains very abundant.
In my view, the trend after the release of the September 30th evening non-farm payrolls has already indicated the direction.
The above content is only a personal market analysis and trading idea record, and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation. When you're fully loaded and the market moves against you, there’s very little room to react. But when you keep some capital available, you can wait for confirmation and still have options. $BTC is hovering around $83.8K, still trapped inside roughly the $82K–$86.5K range. Longs built around the lower support area are still holding up, but the upper boundary remains important. For now, patience matters more than forcing another entry. $ZEC is trading near $1,430 and remains extremely volatile. ASisters, I might be about to mess up again
Tonight's market is crazy, $BTC and $ETH are up, and ZEC is going absolutely wild, even altcoins are collectively taking off.
$NEAR is pulling up one bar after another, reaching as high as around $5.4, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 10% at one point.
Others see this kind of market and think: Hurry up and get in!
I see this kind of market and think: Oh no, I want to short again.
This is my trading flaw.
Whenever I see altcoins suddenly surge, I can't help but want to short them.
Now that NEAR is rising so sharply, those going long are probably excited, but I'm starting to tremble.
Because after such continuous rallies, the biggest fear isn't that it keeps rising, but that a big bearish candle suddenly appears.
Of course, I know I'm dancing on the edge of a knife.
BTC is still strong now, and the funding rates for NEAR and WLD are positive, with new longs still entering the market.
Especially WLD, the one-hour RSI is already close to 79, so the risk of chasing highs is clearly increasing.
So right now, I'm mainly watching BTC.
If BTC keeps pushing up, my short positions will probably keep taking hits.
If BTC pulls back and altcoins start to dive collectively, then my shorts will have a chance to breathe.
As for whether my positions will still be there tomorrow,
I don't know either.
Anyway, that's it for tonight.
Long brothers and sisters keep partying, and I'll keep stubbornly holding my shorts.
Hope when I wake up tomorrow, my positions are still there. After taking profits, first see if BTC can hold 83K
Just reduced some positions, not in a hurry to find the next trade now, stepping aside to observe. $BTC's recent slight pullback isn't severe, but what's more worth watching is whether strong holders will also reduce their positions. If more long-term chips start to loosen, short-term pressure will truly emerge.
Currently, $BTC is still tugging near 83K. On September 30, the intraday range was about 83.17K—83.73K, with narrowing volatility, indicating both bulls and bears are waiting for a signal.
The macro side is not quiet. The US 30-year Treasury yield previously surged to 5.62%, a new high since 2002, and recently fell back to about 5.56%, still at a high level. Meanwhile, the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in October dropped from about 70% to about 45%. This means rate expectations have eased, but bond yields still suppress risk assets.
Simply put, BTC is still balancing between high yields and rate expectations in the short term. The key focus next is the 83K support: if it holds, it may continue to oscillate and recover; if broken, the pullback may deepen. The resistance zone above is 84.5K—85K, and only a breakout with volume can reverse the short-term weakness. For now, observing is more valuable than chasing trades.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 BTC ripped toward $85.2K, while ETH pushed above $2,750. That aggressive bullish candle caught a lot of short-term bears off guard. Breaking down the data, the combination is surprisingly supportive: 📉 Core PCE eased toward 3.0%, signaling softer inflation pressure 📈 GDP was revised higher toward 2.2%, showing the economy is still expanding 💰 Consumer spending remained resilient, suggesting demand hasn't collapsed 👷 ADP payrolls came in around 90K, pointing to a cooling labor market without 🔥 The three coins that surged the most yesterday, can you still chase them today?
$ASTER 0.7746, rose 8% yesterday, don't chase today. Decentralized perpetual contract DEX saw a volume explosion with the market rebound yesterday, and fees soared accordingly. But this coin is highly volatile; an 8% rise feels good, but the pullback is quick. 0.77 is already a short-term high, chasing now will likely lead to a pullback. Wait for a retracement to 0.72-0.75 without breaking before considering; rushing in now means catching the falling knife.
$ENA 0.26917, rose 7.7% yesterday, this pullback is an opportunity. I called the dip to 0.25 a golden pit a couple of days ago, and it bounced back to 0.27 yesterday. Its yield logic is hedging spot with futures to earn funding rates, largely independent of the market's rise and fall; the dovish PCE is just a catalyst. Holding above 0.27 targets 0.3. Every pullback in this coin is a chance to get in, but don't chase aggressively at highs.
$SOL 119.35, up 0.94%, didn't rise much yesterday but is well positioned. The 120 level is just ahead; it bounced back to 119 yesterday. If Bitcoin pushes to 85000 today, SOL will break through 120 in one go. On-chain NFT and DeFi inflows, continuous ETF inflows—these fundamentals remain. Holding above 120 targets 128; this position is safer than chasing ASTER and ENA.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Three coins, three attitudes: don't chase ASTER, buy ENA on pullbacks, wait for SOL to hit 120, don't get overexcited on the second day of rebound.#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
US core inflation data came in below expectations, easing rate hike expectations. After the announcement, Bitcoin $BTC and $ETH briefly rose by two percentage points 📈, but the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new high again, breaking 5.3%. Such divergent data has increased market uncertainty, and a short-term volatile trend is expected.The average short position price of BTC in hand is around 85,500. This wave entered around 86,500. The resistance above between 85,000 and 87,000 is quite thick: technical levels, on-chain chip zones, option walls, and sell walls are almost all crowded in the same range; below, first look at 84,400, then 83,500 and around 82,400. In terms of operation, if it breaks below 84,400, you can continue holding; if it stands back above 85,600, the short advantage weakens; if the 4-hour closes back above 86,000, reassessment is needed. The conclusion is that the bearish logic still holds, but it has already reached the first support, so do not chase. $BTCLet's talk about the structural reasons behind the low-volume sideways consolidation. Many people only look at the candlesticks and don't understand why the price seems nailed down these past few days.
Look at the options. The early October expirations have their max pain points (the price level that causes the most losses to option buyers) mostly concentrated in the 83,000 to 84,000 range. As expiration approaches, market makers hedge by pushing the spot price toward this range, so you see the price grinding back and forth here with weak momentum both up and down.
This is not a target price call, but a reminder: until this "magnet" is removed at expiration, expecting a clean, decisive one-way move is unrealistic. If you want to trade swings, keep this anchor in mind. $BTCIf $BTC drops tonight and then rises again near 810, it might go higher, like 890-930.
If it fluctuates and rises to around 87 in the next couple of days (before the weekend) and then falls, then that's it, this wave of rise is over.
Bottom-fishing at the so-called support of 810-820 will get buried.
There will be a big correction then; 750 will be broken, and the weekly second wave correction will come.
Without so many support and resistance swaps, breaking through 828 and then retesting it means the shorts who sold at the previous 828 resistance will be freed, the selling liquidity will be plundered, and the market maker's target should be the buying liquidity above at 860-870.
After breaking the resistance above 870 and plundering the buying liquidity, it will be time to trap the shorts again. Those who short at the resistance will choose to short at 860-870, but the market maker will break 870, fake the breakout, sweep the short stop losses, and then fall again!
Also, after the non-farm payroll data is released on Friday, the next day is the weekend, so Friday might release some positive non-farm news to attract bulls to go long, then fake breakout and fall, killing both bulls and bears.
Looking forward to the weekend verification, but what I say might not necessarily be right.
This only represents my personal opinion; if it differs from yours, just take it as entertainment. I’m the mid-term intelligence guy. In the past few days, the market's pricing for another rate hike in October has clearly cooled down, falling from nearly 70% to about half. The core logic is not that inflation has completely spiraled out of control, but rather the rising expectation that "there is no need to rush to continue raising rates," combined with falling oil prices and weakening consumer confidence, which temporarily suppresses bets on consecutive rate hikes. What really needs close attention tonight is the core PCE. If the core PCE monthly rate returns to 0.3% or higher, while personal consumption remains resilient, the market may raise the probability of a rate hike again, leading to stronger US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, with risk assets like BTC and ETH facing short-term pressure. If the core PCE falls to around 0.2% or lower, the market may further strengthen the trade of pausing rate hikes in October, giving gold and growth assets some breathing room. But this does not mean the market is immediately entering a rate cut cycle. My observation: Short-term rate hike expectations have cooled, but the mid-term "Higher for Longer" macro environment has not been disrupted. The PCE looks more like a position repricing rather than a trend reversal signal. 🔥 If data is hot: don’t chase high-risk assets 🧊 If data is cold: don’t immediately treat it as a rate cut start signal The real factors deciding market direction next are still employment data, inflation trends, and US Treasury yields. Tonight, watch three things first: Dollar → US Treasury yields → BTC/ETH reaction Also, Micron TeThe latest US core PCE data for August came in at 3.0% YoY, below the market expectation of 3.3%. The monthly figure was 0.2%, also softer than the expected 0.3%. The market reacted almost immediately: 🇺🇸 The US Dollar Index slipped toward 101 🥇 Gold jumped roughly $14 ₿ $BTC surged by more than $1,000 In simple terms, the inflation data gives the Fed one less reason to consider another rate hike in October. New York Fed President John Williams also recently indicated that there is no rush to$HYPE's volatility is really intense!
In the first half of the night, I watched it surge wildly and couldn't resist going long. Entered at 89.5, decisively exited at 90.7, netting +26.95U. It dipped back to 88.03, and I got itchy to buy again, then sold at 88.8, gaining another +8.62U. After filling my long positions, I just saw it spike and then fall, so I reversed to short, currently floating a profit of +3.12U.
Switching between longs and shorts, HYPE has basically been my cash machine tonight! Honestly, I've been tormented lately by $BTC and $XAU gold grid trading, staring at the charts every night with floating losses turning green and making me anxious. Tonight, thanks to HYPE's wild swings, I finally recovered a big chunk of losses. This coin's volatility is perfect for short-term trading; as long as you don't get greedy and take profits when you can, opportunities are everywhere.
But I also have to remind myself: this kind of market comes fast and goes fast, so don't get carried away, don't add positions, and don't give back what you've earned. Only what you hold in your hands is real money. Tonight, I'll treat myself to a chicken leg!
Family, did you get some meat tonight?
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Looking at the bond market, don't just focus on the US. Last night, the French 10-year government bond yield touched its highest level since 2002, with Lagarde directly warning that Eurozone government debt is rushing toward 120% of GDP. On the other side of the Atlantic, the 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.56% is also a 24-year high.
In short: globally, the price of money is rising together. This is not a problem of any single country; developed economies are collectively paying the price for the liquidity injected in recent years.
For us traders, the implication is straightforward— as long as long-term interest rates remain at these high levels, assets supported by leverage for valuation (high-tech US stocks, crypto) will always face a ceiling. There can be rebounds, but don't pretend the interest rate backdrop doesn't exist. $BTCFocusing intensely on $NEAR, this independent rally really delivers surprises.
The overall market only sees slight gains in $BTC and $ETH, with many coins still declining, but NEAR directly surged nearly 10 points, carving out its own trend.
Holding a 50x full-position long all the way, floating profits keep climbing.
This counter-trend rally feels great to watch, but risks are hidden in the shadows; the stronger the surge, the quicker a sharp pullback could come at any time.
Tonight, don't watch other coins, focus solely on this one, prioritizing protecting profits.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 A piece of news easily dismissed as gossip is actually worth serious traders' attention: The Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters renovation has gone over budget by nearly $1 billion, according to a recently released Inspector General report — the conclusion is no criminal wrongdoing, but governance and oversight were "insufficient to handle a project of this scale." Details of the cost overruns, including marble, water features, and rooftop gardens, have become points of contention among Powell, Trump, and the Attorney General.
Money is a small matter; reputation is a big one. When a central bank's own building project is publicly questioned, its "independence" in interest rate decisions will be repeatedly pulled by politics. And the expectation of interest rates is the string currently holding down all risk assets. Behind the commotion, this is what to watch.Dogecoin was initially seen as a joke by many, but a joke that has lasted twelve years is no longer just a joke.
In 2013, two programmers, Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer, spent a few hours creating it, originally intending to mock the chaos in the crypto space. Its logo features the popular Shiba Inu meme. However, the community took it seriously first. Early users tipped good content on Reddit with it, pooled money to send the Jamaican bobsled team to the Winter Olympics, and funded water wells in Kenya. While other coins focused on technical specs, Dogecoin was doing concrete things, which helped it build a highly loyal holder base.
Later, Elon Musk entered the scene, calling it "the people's cryptocurrency," posting dog pictures one moment and sending it to the moon the next. The government efficiency department even nicknamed it DOGE. Regardless of your opinion of him, he brought real exposure to Dogecoin, with search volume and discussion often surpassing many serious projects.
The reasons to be optimistic about it are actually simple. Payment scenarios are gradually expanding, with some merchants accepting $DOGE payments; transfers are fast and fees are low, making it convenient for tips and small payments; the community has been active for over a decade and hasn’t dispersed even during bear markets. It carries no complex narrative baggage, and the recognition threshold is almost zero—newcomers to crypto often recognize this dog’s name before Bitcoin.
A coin that started as a joke and survived thanks to its community has more vitality than most serious projects.From a bearish perspective on the current market, the "killing intent" has quietly emerged. On the macro side, although core PCE has cooled, actual spending has seen the largest increase in a year, indicating that inflation is highly resilient and the Federal Reserve's rate cut path is far less smooth than the market imagines; combined with the disappointing ADP nonfarm payrolls, if tonight's nonfarm payrolls are weak, market logic will instantly shift from a "rate cut celebration" to a "recession trade," which is fatal for risk assets.
Technically, the market is showing typical signs of "good news already priced in" fatigue. BTC is stagnating near the 84K high, unable to surpass the previous high of 87K for a long time, and a prolonged consolidation usually leads to a drop; ETH's rebound below 2700 is weak; SOL has twice failed to break the 120 resistance, easily forming a double top pattern. The most worrisome is ZEC, which has surged over 200% in 90 days, already overextending its fundamentals, and once funds withdraw, a stampede will be extremely brutal.
As a bear, whether tonight's nonfarm payrolls blow past expectations (strengthening high rates) or are extremely weak (triggering recession fears), both are perfect excuses to push the market down. My strategy is clear: short on rallies relying on BTC's strong resistance at 84.2K and ETH at 2.7K, set stop losses above key previous highs, and wait for sentiment to return from frenzy to reality. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 9.30 Market Overview: U.S. Treasury Yields Pressuring, Major Cryptos Weakening Collectively
Expectations for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire have fallen through, U.S. Treasury yields surged to 5%, putting pressure on both crypto and gold. BTC is fluctuating around 83,500, breaking below 84,020 on the 4-hour chart, with 82,563 as key support; if broken, look for 80,126; if it climbs back above 84,020, next target is 84,999.
ETH is consolidating around 2,690, with 2,636–2,721 as the core range; a breakout will determine the next direction.
SOL is near 119, with 117.26 as the defense level, and 121–122.93 as resistance.
UNI is the weakest in the short term, with 8.58 as key support, and 9.03–9.48 as rebound resistance.
Gold has dropped to around 4,111, with 4,245–4,260 as resistance; losing 4,110 signals bearish bias.
Overall: The daily chart is not yet fully broken, but the 4-hour chart shows widespread weakness. Wait for confirmation at key levels; avoid chasing rallies or panic selling. This morning's rebound, don't rush to call it a trend yet, first see who's buying. In the past 24 hours of liquidations, the shorts lost twice as much as the longs, and in just the last 4 hours, over 50 million USD worth of short positions were liquidated. To translate: a large part of this bullish candle is shorts forced to cover their losses at the top, not new real money stepping in to buy.
A common problem with squeezes pushing the market up is that volume doesn't keep up. The volume of three coins this morning shrank to nearly zero; once the shorts finish their squeeze, if there's no follow-through from above, the rally easily fizzles out.
I'm basically holding shorts on perpetual contracts watching the show right now—not because there's no direction, but because I don't want to chase longs in the middle of a bullish candle lit by a short squeeze. In a low-volume vacuum, patience is more valuable than quick hands. $BTC#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
On September 30 at 20:30, the US core PCE will be released first; on October 2 at 20:30, the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate will follow closely. These two macroeconomic events are like two hammers that will shape the short-term direction of Bitcoin.
I tend to believe that the phase low won't come too early and will most likely fall on these two nights. Before the data release, there is panic and probing; after the data release, expectations are adjusted, and the bottom is formed amid the chaos.
If this is true, from October 2 to October 8, the National Day holiday might become a “red envelope week” for holders. With sentiment warming up, Bitcoin has a chance to pulse upward and experience a rapid rally.
But after the excitement, calm is needed. If the rate decision at the end of October suppresses sentiment again, the bullish story may be over; the hundred-day bull run from June to October will also conclude after its peak. Control positions before the data, follow the trend after the data, remember to take profits by the end of the holiday, and switch to defense by month-end. $BTC
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 The monthly candle has closed, and BTC is still stuck in the middle to lower band. The price has already touched the upper edge of the middle band, with the 87,400 resistance clearly heavy. Simply put, as long as it can't hold above 87,400, the overall momentum is likely to remain weak. So don't rush to go long if it hasn't stabilized at this level. You can lightly short around 85,000, add another position at 85,500, with a target near 80,000. The monthly candle has also landed, with no major short-term fluctuations; just wait for the position to give a signal. $BTC$BTC has broken through!
The descending channel that continuously suppressed the price has finally been pierced from above.
A big bullish candle surged directly to $85,000!
Just now, it was repeatedly bottoming around $83,000.
The bulls are starting to regain short-term control!
From the chart, BTC was previously suppressed by the upper edge of the descending channel, with every rebound near $84,000–$85,000 encountering selling pressure. Now, the price has broken through the upper boundary with a strong bullish candle on high volume and quickly surged toward around $85,500, signaling a clear short-term structural strengthening.
The most important thing next is not how high this surge goes, but whether the price can hold above the upper edge of the channel after the breakout. If there is support around $84,000 on a pullback, the validity of this breakout will be stronger, and the next step will be to challenge the $86,000–$87,000 area again; if it quickly falls back inside the channel, beware of a false breakout.
After being suppressed for so long, BTC has finally pushed the upper boundary open.
If it holds this breakout, $87,000 will be back on the table!For 15 dollars to invest 300u, I really lost my mind Opening a short position, let me explain why I'm doing this.
ZEC has recently seen a sharp pullback, dropping from a high of 1697 down to around 1355 at the lowest.
The reason is straightforward: on September 28, a whale placed a low-price order on Hyperliquid, dumping 15,000 ZEC, and another whale who averaged in at 425 sold 25,001 ZEC, taking $27 million in profits and exiting.
Profit-taking is concentrated, which is the most direct trigger.
But what really made me hit the short button is another detail.
Grayscale has been saying ZEC can still rise, claiming its market cap is only 1.5% of Bitcoin’s, so there’s a high ceiling.
The problem is, on one side institutions are bullish, while on the other side whales are fleeing. Who do you trust?
The person who bought at 425 knows this market better than anyone; he chose to sell at 1400 instead of waiting for the 4000 Grayscale talks about. Institutional target prices and real money moves are always two different things.
The technicals confirm this.
4-hour MACD shows a death cross, RSI dropped to around 39, Bollinger Bands’ upper band is pressing at 1702, lower support at 1311. The price is just above 1400 now, each rebound is weaker than the last, with lower highs.
This structure is a typical downtrend continuation, not a bottom formation.
I entered a short around 1415, with 10x leverage and a light position. The first target is 1350; if it breaks, the downside opens up to 1300 or even lower. Stop loss is set above 1480.
Of course, I have to clarify the risks. Grayscale’s ZCSH ETF just launched on NYSE Arca, with over $34 million net inflow in the first two weeks.
Valour also listed a ZEC ETP in Sweden.
Retail and institutional investors in Europe are entering through compliant channels, and these buy orders will provide support.
If the price rallies back above 1500 with volume, I’ll admit I was wrong and exit.
The key levels now are clear: resistance at 1500-1550, a rebound to this range is a shorting opportunity; support at 1350-1400, where you can take profits. The 1400-1500 range is a meat grinder—don’t open positions recklessly if the direction is unclear.
The overall market is weak; BTC is stuck around 82000, and funds are withdrawing.
In this environment, I only do short-term shorts, take a quick bite and run, never hold long-term. I’ll take profits near 1350 and won’t be greedy.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 ⚔️ $HYPE Smart Money is split, but longs are winning
Shorts actually hold more exposure: $157.11M vs $139.27M in longs.
💵 But the PnL tells a different story. Longs are sitting on +$11.26M, while shorts are underwater by -$5.48M.
🚀 Fresh flow strongly favors buyers: $11.51M buying vs $5.93M selling in the last 30 minutes.
$HYPE is already up 3%. With shorts underwater and buying accelerating, another push higher could put them under serious pressure.At 2 a.m., after watching the freshly released PCE data, I quietly pushed aside the instant noodles on the table. The core PCE for August came in at 3% year-over-year (below the expected 3.3%), and the month-over-month rate was 0.2%, also below expectations, indicating that the inflation "beast" is finally cooling down. But strangely, real personal spending recorded the largest increase in over a year (0.9%), combined with the unexpectedly weak "small nonfarm" ADP data, this combination of data punches has turned tonight's nonfarm payroll report into a Schrödinger's blind box. As a seasoned trader in the secondary market, I hate uncertainty the most. But facing the macro warm breeze of easing expectations for an October rate hike, risk-on sentiment is clearly brewing. Switching back to the market, it is currently in a typical "pre-nonfarm technical convergence": BTC is consolidating around 84130, with bulls and bears "playing dead" below the resistance at 84268, and the moving averages tightly converged, waiting for the macro starting gun; ETH hovers at 2684, slightly dull compared to the broader market, with resistance at 2715 like an impassable moat, lacking the momentum for an independent rally. In contrast, the public chain sector is clearly more interesting. SOL is currently priced at 119.68, with moving averages in a bullish alignment, repeatedly testing the resistance at 120.08, resembling a compressed spring that, once macro conditions align, is highly likely to break upward. As for the "monster coin" of this rally, ZEC, currently priced at 1460, although it pulled back 3.59% over 7 days, the 90-day surge slope of 217% is brutal, currently facing resistance at 1478 and 13 With the National Day holiday approaching, here is a brief summary of the gold market in late September!
Reviewing the recent actual market: after a round of decline, gold prices have been in a corrective rebound and oscillation, rising to around 4219 before facing resistance and falling back, with support at 4155 and 4100 holding on the pullbacks. Bulls and bears are tugging back and forth within this range.
External international news is a key factor influencing the current market. The US ADP employment and core PCE data showed one strong and one weak set, causing expectations for Fed rate hikes to swing back and forth. US Treasury yields remain high, continuously limiting gold's upward potential. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments occasionally amplify short-term volatility.
Domestic markets are closed for the National Day holiday, but overseas markets continue trading. Important data releases are expected during the holiday, introducing considerable uncertainty and risk of gaps after the holiday, so everyone should pay close attention to risk.
In the short term, the range is seen as 4155-4205, with strong support at 4100-4115 and a dividing line at 4200-4205.
The major bearish structure has not changed and remains in a consolidation and correction phase. Treat it as a range-bound market. During the holiday, try to keep positions light and be sure to use stop-losses $XAU 🚨 A whale just dropped nearly $7 MILLION on $ETHFI… and the timing is raising eyebrows. 👀
Wallet 0xd282…c1e7 has accumulated a total of $6.99M worth of $ETHFI since yesterday.
Here’s what caught my attention:
• 2.61M ETHFI withdrawn yesterday
• Another 6.91M ETHFI withdrawn just 1 hour ago
• Total: 9.52M ETHFI
• Average withdrawal price: $0.734
• Unrealized profit already: ~$217K 💰
#DailyOrbit Originally thought that both PCE and APD were good and that both the US stock and crypto markets could recover, but didn't expect the Fed to still be able to change things, really has.CT This newly launched coin is interesting! Almost all major platforms launched it simultaneously, and OKX launched both spot and futures together. At the same time, they also launched a spot trading event. Based on my previous experience, usually when a new coin launches, there is a spot trading event, many of which are for the team to cash out and run. Only with a trading event is there enough buying support to prevent the price from crashing, so I am relatively bearish. I guess you all have forgotten what happened to $BTC during last year's National Day!
But I remember it clearly because I shorted Bitcoin at that time, and from the 1st to the end of the National Day holiday, Bitcoin's price hit new highs every day.
Although each price breakthrough was only slightly higher than the previous high, for me who was deeply trapped, the entire National Day holiday was very hard to endure!
I just don't know if today's market will replicate last year's National Day rally, letting the bulls continue their celebration.
I currently hold a small long position; although the position is not large, I still hope the price will rise so I can have a happy National Day.
Judging by the current trend, the market is still bullish, and it's quite possible to replicate last year's Bitcoin rally.
The recent local high is around 87,500.
That's only $3,000 away from the current price; the price only needs to rise less than 4% to reach it.
In my opinion, this is not a difficult task.
However, I must emphasize again that there are too many profit-taking long positions.
Before the long positions are sufficiently rotated, I will not add to my long position; instead, I am always prepared to short.
Considering Bitcoin's trend:
Support: 82,800.
Resistance: 85,500.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only! $ONE ONE dropped again.
I just added a bit more 😂
But this time I want to say something that many people might not agree with:
I actually quite like its current AI video direction.
I've already seen several comments saying,
this AI path is unreliable,
and telling me not to take it too seriously.
I actually find it quite interesting.
Because I really wasn’t interested in ONE before.
An old L1, with a story told for so many years,
then security issues came up,
and now even the original chain is preparing to exit.
But precisely because of this,
I started to look at it again.
Harmony’s current direction is very thorough:
ONE moves to Ethereum,
the original L1 exits,
and then resources are shifted to AI video.
And I myself am quite optimistic about the AI video path.
Not because I think "just touching AI will make it rise,"
but because I believe in the next few years,
AI-generated video, content creation, humans working with AI on content,
could be a very big market.
Whether Harmony can actually pull it off in the end,
that’s another matter.
I just feel:
An old coin that has already dropped this much and just happened to change its story,
is actually worth me betting on this change.
So the more it falls,
the more I want to watch it now.
Of course, if it turns out I’m wrong in the end,
that’s simple too 😂
I admit it.
ONE,
are you really changing your path,
or just changing your story?
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 "BTC and ETH: Volatility Is the Main Theme"
BTC and ETH, the two giants, are caught in a prolonged tug-of-war. BTC failed to break through 87,000, retreating to 82,000 and fluctuating; ETH is moving back and forth between 2600-2700, with repeated unsuccessful attempts to surpass 2800. Prices seem paused, direction unclear.
Capital flow shows clear divergence. JPMorgan data: BTC spot ETF has replenished about two-thirds of previous outflows, while ETH has only replenished one-third, indicating larger funds favor BTC. More caution is needed as ETH's long-short ratio rises to 1.32, with over $900 million potential liquidations stacked below; crowded leveraged longs could trigger a deep correction and a possible cascade.
The macro environment is also unfavorable. The 10-year US Treasury yield hits the highest since 2007, with rising rate hike expectations putting pressure on risk assets. VanEck's 2026 outlook suggests the market is more likely to consolidate rather than surge or crash, recommending a 1%-3% position for dollar-cost averaging into BTC, trading time for space.
The interplay of capital divergence, crowded leverage, and macro pressure makes a one-sided market a luxury. Rather than guessing breakout directions, it's better to accept reality: prolonged volatility may be the most certain trend ahead. Tonight's PCE is key.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 This manipulation is crazy.
$BTC pumped from $82,900 to $85,600 this morning liquidating $210M shorts!
Then, $BTC immediately dumped back to $83,000 liquidating another $100M!!!
And now, $85,500 - $87,500 above has sizable liquidity that could be swept next.
However, $79,500 - $82,500 below has almost 3x more liquidation clusters stacked up, making this the 'higher probability' zone to visit next.
Bulls and Bears just got wiped out!$BTC
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #BTCTreasuryFundingRise The data released tonight is milder than the market initially expected: Core PCE month-over-month is about +0.2%, lower than the previous expectation of about +0.3%; year-over-year is about +3.0%, also below the market expectation of about +3.3%. Meanwhile, the BEA's revision of previous data also makes the overall inflation trajectory appear more moderate than before. This is a somewhat positive signal for risk assets: Inflation cooling → market bets on further tightening weaken → the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may come under pressure → liquidity expectations improve → risk assets like BTC and ETH get some breathing room. 📊 Short-term key levels: $BTC: watch if it can firmly hold 84,500–85,200, then further target 86,000–87,000 $ETH: watch the 2,700–2,730 range; if it breaks out with volume, then look near 2,780 $SOL: after reclaiming 120, the market may further focus on 122–125 However, the most important thing now is not to chase just because of good news. The PCE was just released, and the market still needs time to digest it. Especially watch whether the 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar index weaken simultaneously. If inflation data clearly cools but Treasury yields remain high or even continue to rise, it indicates the market may still be trading other macro risks, so this rally could also be a "good news priced in" scenario. ⚠️ Therefore, what deserves more attention is: the first wave of surge after data release → pullback → whether it canBig reversal! US August core PCE shows a "roller coaster" trend
Initial release: Core PCE annual rate 3.0%, expected 3.3%, significantly below expectations, US stocks quickly surged in the short term, market started trading on rate cut expectations.
Data revision after midnight: previous value revised down from 3.30% to 3.0%.
In other words, the actual core PCE for August is 3.0%, equal to the revised previous value, changing from "below expectations" to meeting expectations, indicating that inflation has not been alleviated and the positive outlook turns negative.