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Good evening, friends, I am Chao Ge 🤝:
Sharing some data sets.
➡️ Macro: Core PCE annual growth at 3%, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 70% to 43%, but US Treasury yields remain high.
➡️ Regulation: The EU is questioning Binance over MiCA, the US Clarity Act failed to pass, and the SEC is accelerating rulemaking on its own.
➡️ Institutions: Strategy increased holdings by 1,666 BTC last week, with total holdings reaching 847,000 BTC.
➡️ ETF: BTC ETF ended 9 consecutive days of net inflows, with a net outflow of $148.7 million yesterday. ETH ETF had net outflows for two consecutive days, with $59.6 million outflow yesterday. However, BTC ETF still had a net inflow of $2.95 billion over the past 30 days.
➡️ On-chain: Exchange BTC balances continue to decline, with a 7-day average net outflow of 16,100 BTC. Wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC increased holdings by 41,025 BTC over 10 days.
➡️ Derivatives: Open interest rose to $155 billion (an 11-month high), funding rates dropped from an annualized 7.5% to 2.4%, leverage is healthy.
Summary: Short-term ETF profit-taking and macro pressure are headwinds, but on-chain chip outflows, whale accumulation, and healthy leverage indicate the mid-term bottom remains solid.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
$BTC $ETH $ZEC After last night's US PCE data release, $BTC briefly surged to $85,500 but quickly fell back to around $84,000.
The data itself isn't actually bad.
August PCE year-over-year was 3.4%, core PCE 3.0%, indicating inflationary pressure is lighter than the market feared, and expectations for rate hikes have cooled. Logically, this should be positive for risk assets like BTC.
But the problem this time is clear:
① Inflation dropped, but US Treasury yields didn't fall.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is still around 5.28%, even touching 5.34% intraday, near the highest level since 2002.
This is very critical for BTC.
Because yields are so high, funds can get decent returns from bonds, so the market has no urgent need to rush into high-volatility assets.
So the reason BTC couldn't hold above $85,500 after the surge is, in my view, not because BTC itself is weak, but because macro funding costs remain too high.
② The market is no longer just focused on "rate hikes or cuts."
Previously, whenever inflation dipped a bit, the market immediately started pricing in rate cuts.
Now it's different.
Oil prices, fiscal deficits, and bond issuance volumes continue to support long-term Treasury yields.
In other words, even if the Fed stops raising rates, as long as the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 5%, it won't be easy for BTC to sustain a rally.
③ So, should you go long or short now?
I currently wouldn't chase longs around $84,000.
BTC already tried to break $85,500 once and failed, so I see that as short-term resistance.
If BTC can stabilize above $85,500 again and Treasury yields start to decline, I would be more inclined to lean bullish.
If it can't break through $85,000–$85,500 and Treasury yields continue rising above 5.3%, there is a chance of further short-term downside.
So for now, I'm more on the sidelines, waiting for direction confirmation.
The real focus going forward isn't the next "positive data," but when the US 10-year yield will truly start to fall.
If it doesn't come down, BTC's upside will remain capped.The governor of California clashed with Trump over just one word.
Trump's side said that from now on, federal documents should stop calling it AI and rename it SI, super intelligence.
California immediately signed an executive order: our state will continue to call it AI, no change.
Honestly, when I saw this news, my first reaction wasn’t about who’s right or wrong, but frustration.
Two governments are fighting over the definition of a name, while in the real AI track, the projects in the crypto space related to AI—has there been a single one worth mentioning in the past six months?
No.
Whether it’s called AI or SI has nothing to do with whether those AI concept coins on-chain can rise.
The real impact of this matter is on sentiment, not fundamentals. The market will hype as it should, but don’t expect changing a word to reignite the narrative.
Right now, I’m watching for one signal: when the AI sector sees real capital inflow, not just surviving on this kind of political rhetoric.
Until then, just take this kind of news with a grain of salt.
#特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI
#Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议 #OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 $BTC Brushing away the volcanic ash of Pompeii from three thousand years ago is essentially no different from peeling back the chip layers on today's $AEVO chart.
There is nothing new under the sun; the cliff-like plunge before us is just another grayscale replay of the tulip mania and the South Sea Bubble in the digital world. Greed in human nature weathers into sand at the bull market peak, while blind panic solidifies into cold sedimentary rock in the geological profile.
A light touch with a hand shovel on the surface reveals the 1-hour Bollinger lower band firmly stuck at 0.02540, and the current price of 0.02544 almost overlaps it, like Han dynasty tomb bricks tightly holding up a collapsing dome. The RSI dips to 40.2, the glaze on the pottery shards has faded, and the air is filled with the stale moldy smell of excessive overselling—this is the typical cold silence after panic selling has cleared out.
The gap between futures and spot is slightly converging; the pendulum of history never swings toward extreme frenzy or nihilism. In this miniature historical geological fault zone, to the left lie the white bones of those blindly cutting losses as sacrificial victims, while to the right are patient craftsmen seeking the mean reversion of price differences within millimeters. The Bollinger middle band at 0.02586 is the ventilation shaft of this tomb chamber, and the upper band at 0.02633 is the last altar ruin of the old dynasty.
- Target: $AEVO 🟢
- Entry: 0.02535 - 0.02550
- TP1: 0.02586
- TP2: 0.02633
- SL: 0.02515
Once the geological layer breaks through 0.02515, it means the basal soil layer has completely collapsed, and all research immediately resets to zero. 🏛️📜
#CryptoEarningsPressure🚨SEC to clarify on-chain fundraising rules! This signal is more important than the bill vote
Here’s my take: It’s not a major easing, but the regulatory outlook shifting from completely unknown to traceable is an easily overlooked medium- to long-term positive.
The CLARITY Act is stalled, and many have already declared regulatory benefits dead.
But the SEC immediately stated: it will first push for clarity on on-chain fundraising rules.
There will be fundraising exemption thresholds, safe harbors, and disclosure requirements.
In plain terms: not giving you unlimited freedom, but providing a compliant path you can follow.
The biggest problem with on-chain financing in the past was everyone guessing the red lines.
Now the boundaries are gradually emerging, giving projects and institutional investors reference standards.
In the short term, it won’t directly trigger a market rally, but it’s more about confidence restoration.
In the long run, certainty is the prerequisite for institutional capital entry.
Trading insight:
We always wait for comprehensive positive news but often overlook that reducing the unknown is itself a positive.
$BTC
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 The last 100U, it's really the moment that tests the mindset the most.
The account only has 100U left.
Yesterday I was still thinking of slowly making it back, but today watching $ETH surge to around 2737 and then get pushed down again, returning to around 2680, I suddenly realized:
The most tormenting thing about this market is not the drop, but giving you hope and then taking it away.
2737 couldn't hold, then quickly fell back.
Looking at the short-term structure, several short-term moving averages are still pressing above the price, so the rebound clearly faces resistance.
So this time, I chose one direction:
ETH short position.
My thinking is simple:
Resistance above 2730 → failed to break higher → confirmed pullback.
If the market continues to weaken, I will focus on observing around 2600.
From 2685 to 2600, there is still some space in between.
But ultimately, the biggest enemy now may no longer be ETH.
It's my own mindset.
Because the account only has 100U left, it's easy to have a thought:
"Anyway, there's only this little left, might as well go all in."
But the most dangerous time to trade is often exactly at moments like this.
So this time I don't want to dress it up as some "sure-win situation."
If I'm right, it's a recovery.
If I'm wrong, consider it tuition.
The market won't go easy on me just because this is my last 100U.
This time, I just hope I can at least keep my discipline.
As for the result—
Let the candlesticks give the answer themselves.
$ETH
#TradingVoice #ETH #TradingDiaryAt first, I watched live streams
The streamer was shouting buy signals fiercely
I got impulsive and jumped in
Bought $BTC
Got stuck right after buying
Stuck so badly I couldn't sleep
Later I sold at a loss
Then it went up again
I called myself stupid
Later, I listened to advice
Switched to $ETH
Held it for over half a year
No profit, no loss
Just mentally exhausted
In between, I also tried $SOL
Bought at a high
Cut losses and sold
It immediately rebounded
I just uninstalled the app
Now I keep only a tiny bit
Treat the ups and downs like watching a show
If I make money, I treat myself well
If I lose, I don't feel bad
No borrowing money
No heavy positions
No staying up late
When others shout buy signals, I just smile
I’m responsible for my own money
This field is too deep
Being alive is more important than anything
Life goes on
Coins are just coins#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 You guys simply don't understand what it means to follow the trend.
$ZEC dropped from 1697 to 1387, a 300-dollar plunge. Count how many bullish candles there are?
Each rebound is weaker than the last, and each low is lower than the previous one. This is not a correction; this is a trend.
Look at the contract data. The funding rate for ZEC perpetual contracts has turned negative, meaning the shorts are starting to pay the longs, yet the price keeps falling.
What does this indicate?
It means the shorts are willing to pay to push the price down, and the longs can't even hold on while getting paid.
Open interest continues to decline; the longs who got liquidated are conceding and exiting, while new shorts are entering.
The order book depth is also changing. Orders below 1380 are thin, and between 1355 and 1300 there is almost no decent buy support. Once it breaks 1380, the drop will accelerate.
Look at the broader market. Bitcoin surged to 85000 and then fell back, failing to hold even 85300. The major coins are like this; how tough do you expect ZEC to be?
My approach: short at the current price of 1387, stop loss at 1460, target 1300. Position size is 20%, leverage within 10x.
This trade has a risk-reward ratio close to 1:3, the last chance before the non-farm payrolls. If it breaks 1460, I admit I'm wrong, but until then, the shorts won't surrender. If you dare to follow, now is the time.
$BTC $ETH
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 BTC has been sideways all day, so no analysis of the trend today. Let's talk about a new feature from OKX called OKX Security Shield.
Recently, news about exchanges being hacked pops up from time to time in the community. Saying you're not worried would be a lie. Taking a closer look at this Security Shield: if your account is hacked, eligible losses can be compensated up to $100,000. Although $100,000 is an astronomical amount for someone like me doing hard labor, at least the platform has shown a commitment to cover losses.
However, to activate this protection, you first need to complete identity verification and set up security features like the passkey and withdrawal protection.
PS: The Security Shield feature is located at the top right corner.
Brothers in the crypto circle, if you blow your contract positions and lose everything, that's due to your own lack of knowledge. But if your principal is stolen by hackers, that’s truly unfair. Everyone, hurry up and "Check My Eligibility" to maximize your security level. $BTC $SOL $CORE #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Around $ZEC 1400, things are starting to get interesting again.
Recently, the news around ZEC has been getting more and more lively.
Various concepts, stories, and "bullish" factors keep appearing one after another, making the market look like it's about to take off again.
But I want to ask:
If it’s really that strong, why is the price still falling all the way down?
It dropped from 1697 down to around 1400, and every rebound gets suppressed.
The moving averages are gradually weakening, and the trading volume hasn’t shown any obvious increase.
This is quite awkward—
The news is hot, but the price is cold.
So I won’t change my market judgment just because a certain piece of news suddenly comes out.
The easiest thing to get carried away by in the market is seeing a bullish factor and immediately imagining a "huge surge."
But what really determines profit or loss in the end is the price.
I have already tried short positions around 1405, with a risk level set near 1450, and I’m focusing on watching the 1350 area below.
If it breaks down, we’ll see if the market can open up new downside space;
If it climbs back above the key level, then there’s no need to stubbornly fight the trend.
News is responsible for telling stories; candlesticks are responsible for telling you whether the story has been fulfilled.
Currently, the biggest focus for ZEC is not about any new news.
It’s:
Whether the 1400 level can hold.
That’s the real point to watch going forward.
$BTC $ETH
#ZEC #Ethereum #Bitcoin #NonFarmPayroll #InterestRateExpectations #BitcoinETF #Cryptocurrency #TradeRecords$ZEC $ZEC This time I want to get it below 1000
Do you feel it?
It rose from over 200 to 1600, and now seeing it below 1000 doesn't seem wrong.
Why is everyone so optimistic about ZEC?
Is it because of its strong rallies in these two waves, or because its project is better?
In these rounds of increase, the hottest topic of discussion is its privacy concept.
So, may I ask, the privacy concept has always existed, why was it not favored before, even when it was over 200, no one bought it, but now that it has risen, people say they are more optimistic? OKX altcoin position ratio fell back to 1.044 and BTC funding rate dropped to 0.0067%, spot turnover at $84,042.9
OKX BTC perpetual funding rate dropped to 0.0067% tonight, translating to a long annualized cost of 7.3%, with spot sideways at $84,042.9. Compared to last night's 0.0085% rate, the pace of longs paying funding has slightly eased. BTC funding rate is again higher than ETH's 0.0062%, so keep an eye on the turnover at $84,042.9 if you have open positions.
I checked the position distribution on the exchange. BTC contracts hold $2.945 billion, ETH takes $1.71 billion, and the remaining $3.075 billion is all in altcoins. The altcoin-to-BTC position ratio dropped from 1.084 last night to 1.044. The overall fear and greed index stands at 74 greed, total market cap is $2.881 trillion, Bitcoin dominance at 58.41%, Ethereum at 11.41%.
I looked at funding rates of other major coins. SOL funding rate dropped to -0.0057% discount, XRP also at -0.0007%, shorts are paying to subsidize longs. DOGE funding rate is steady at 0.0052%, BNB only 0.0024%. Except for BTC and ETH, mainstream coin funding rates are generally low, with more funding discounts being collected in altcoin short positions.10U Challenge Day 4: Almost ended yesterday, but today I decided not to rush to recover.
After getting wiped out yesterday, the first thing I did was not to chase the losses.
Instead—I closed trading and went straight to sleep.
Honestly, the biggest mistake small capital traders make is trying to frantically recover losses after losing.
But the more anxious you are, the more mistakes you tend to make consecutively.
So up to now today, I’ve only made one trade:
A short position on $ETH.
Why focus on Ethereum?
The market these days is quite interesting; on the daily chart, there have been consecutive bearish candles suppressing the price, and you can clearly see some resistance when the price tries to move up.
So what I’m more concerned about now is:
Is this a buildup for a breakout, or is a pullback coming?
I chose to try a short first.
But I won’t recklessly add to the position; if it goes wrong, I’ll accept it.
There’s 5.7U left in the account now.
Honestly, the goal of "turning 10U into an iPhone 18" is already quite far away.
But it’s okay.
Whether it’s 5.7U or 10U, the priority is to keep myself at the table.
My biggest takeaway after getting wiped out yesterday is:
Making money can be slow, but recovering losses can’t be rushed.
Today, I only trade what I understand.
The rest, I leave to the market.
If this 5.7U can really make its way back and even reach the goal—
That’s the truly interesting part of this 10U challenge.
#10UChallenge #ETH #Ethereum #BTC #Bitcoin #TradingDiary #SmallCapitalChallenge #NonFarm #BitcoinETF #Crypto🌙 Evening Review: Who's Really Buying This Rally Today?
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
$BTC 84129, up 1.26%. The core of today's rebound boils down to two words: ETF. Nine consecutive days of net inflows, with weekly inflows hitting a near one-year high. Institutions are stacking real money underneath. Core PCE at 3.0% is below the expected 3.3%, delaying rate hike expectations. These two factors combined created today's bullish candle. 85000 is within sight, but with US Treasury yields repeatedly hitting new highs, whether 85000 holds depends on volume.
$ZEC 1441, up 3.64%. The day before yesterday's false breakout dropped to 1388, then bounced back to 1441 yesterday. Privacy coins were oversold in this move—breaking through the 1500 to 1560 range with volume but failing to hold, trapping those who chased highs. However, fundamentals remain unchanged. Now at 1441, still some distance from the heavy resistance zone at 1500. A bounce to 1500 would be considered a recovery; failure to reach it means weakness persists.
$ASTER 0.7746, up 8.06%, the strongest performer today. A decentralized perpetual contract DEX, contract trading volume exploded as the market rallied. But don't get carried away with the 8% gain; this coin is highly volatile and corrections come fast. 0.77 is already a short-term high. Wait for a pullback to 0.72–0.75 without breaking before considering entry; jumping in now risks catching a falling knife.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Three takeaways for the evening: BTC eyes 85000, ZEC recovery targets 1500, ASTER don't chase highs—stay cool on day two of the rebound.84.36K is the current decisive line for $BTC, not the midpoint price. In Kraken's public market, $BTC is around 84.06K, with a 24-hour low of 83.12K and a high of 84.36K; $ETH is about 2695, and $SOL about 117.8. The price has approached the upper boundary but has not yet completed a close confirmation.
A bullish framework signed by Follis in the window views around 83.81K as the entry point after reclaiming the moving average, with invalidation at 83.64K and a target pointing to 85.85K. My understanding is: only a volume-backed break above 84.36K that holds on the pullback is worth considering this bullish path as valid; otherwise, it may still be a bull trap at the upper range.
I will wait for the close first and will not chase above 84K; if it falls below 83.64K, I will withdraw the breakout expectation and wait for a rebuild. There are many altcoin and high-leverage signals in the window, but without independently verifiable catalysts, I do not consider them opportunities. Are you more focused on a volume breakout above 84.36K or a breakdown below 83.64K? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.How is TAO doing now? How is its development? How much is spent every month? Is there any buyback? How much does it consume each month? Or how much does it consume weekly? Or daily? How is it developing now? Is there any actual operational effect? Several AI companies have entered the competition.
Conclusion first: TAO is currently one of the relatively "real" projects in the AI crypto sector, but the issues of "consumption" and "buyback" have seriously conflicting statements online, so you need to be especially cautious.
1. Current Market and Development Status
As of the market update on September 30, 2026, TAO is priced at about $297.35, down 4.57% in 24 hours, up 5.09% in 7 days, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $234 million, circulating supply about 9.92 million tokens, total supply 21 million tokens. In the AI crypto sector, Bittensor leads with a market cap of about $3.43 billion, holding nearly 19.6% of the sector's share.
2. How much is "consumed" daily/monthly?
Here we need to distinguish two things: how much the protocol "issues" daily, and how much is actually "spent" in real business.
- After the first halving on December 14, 2025, block rewards dropped from 1 token to 0.5 tokens, daily issuance dropped from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens. At that time's price, about 3,600 TAO (approximately $960,000) were distributed daily to 128 subnets, with the top ten controlling about 56% of the share.
- Converted, the daily subsidy is about $960,000, roughly $29 million monthly — but this is inflation subsidy, not real consumption.
3. Is there a buyback?
Note: The widely circulated claim that "40%/50% of ecosystem revenue is used for buyback and burn" is unreliable. Some sources say 40% of ecosystem revenue is used for secondary market buyback and burn, with over 12 million tokens burned by June 2025; others claim 50% with over 18 million tokens burned. These figures contradict each other and lack official confirmation, so it is advised not to trust them.
A relatively credible mechanism is: TAO has a fixed total supply of 21 million tokens, no pre-mining, no private sale, halving mechanism hardcoded in the protocol; additionally, there is a neuron registration burn mechanism that directly consumes TAO, and the Conviction v2 governance upgrade converts subnet owners' token emissions into non-liquid assets. In other words, its "deflation" mainly relies on halving and registration consumption, not active buyback.
4. Is there actual operational effect? (the most disputed part)
- Optimistic view: SubConnect's first Bittensor income index released at the end of August 2026 shows 24 subnets earn about $28 million to $35 million annualized revenue from actual paying customers, with compute and infrastructure subnets contributing about $23.1 million to $27.3 million, Lium (SN51) leading with $8 million to $10 million.
- Conservative view: Some analyses point out that excluding token subsidies and internal circulation, only independently verifiable third-party fiat payments amount to about $3 million to $15 million external annual revenue; among them, Chutes (SN64) has external annual revenue of about $1.3 million to $2.4 million but receives about $52 million annualized TAO subsidy, with a subsidy-to-revenue ratio as high as 22:1 to 40:1.
- There is indeed technical substance: SN3 subnet trained the 72 billion parameter Covenant-72B model, with performance comparable to LLaMA-2-70B.
5. How many competitors?
Comparable projects in the same sector include: NEAR Protocol (about $1.49 billion, high-performance L1 public chain), Render Network (about $864 million, decentralized GPU rendering), Fetch.ai/ASI's FET (about $533 million, autonomous AI agent application layer), Akash Network's AKT (about $126 million, general decentralized cloud computing). Additionally, Bittensor faces pressure from centralized AI giants and self-hosted compute power; some subnets rely on protocol subsidies at low prices, and without subsidies, costs may exceed centralized solutions.
Final reminder: The issue with TAO is not "whether it has technology," but the revenue figures are too vague. The same matter has two claims: $172 million annualized and $3 million–$15 million, a difference of dozens of times. If you really want to get involved, make sure your position size is within what you can afford to lose completely.
Would you like me to prepare a comparison table of market cap, circulating supply, and daily subsidy for the core projects TAO, FET, NEAR, and RNDR to help you see them side by side? $ZEC Funds are still buying, but I'm more concerned about who is selling.
Currently, $BTC is still around 84,000, but OKX large order data shows an interesting hedge.
On one side, there are continuous BTC buy orders at levels of 600,000, 900,000, and 1.6 million USD, while on the other side, there are also million-dollar sell orders.
This indicates that funds have not withdrawn, but the pressure to take profits above is also real.
$ETH also has large sell orders exceeding 1.2 million USD, so we can't just call a bull run because "someone is buying".
The real key is: can the buying side continue to push the price up?
If the area around 84,000 is repeatedly supported, it means funds are still willing to buy; if buy orders increase but the price struggles to rise, then caution is needed.
Capital inflow is not scary; the biggest fear is that the buying side cannot absorb the selling side.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 ZEC is now back near $1400.
① There is still a possibility of a short-term further dip.
ZEC has had a large increase previously, and contract open interest remains high. On Hyperliquid, ZEC perpetual OI is still about $670 million, and the funding rate is positive, so long positions have not been fully cleared.
Under these circumstances, I would not chase longs near 1400.
If it continues downward, first watch 1370–1350, then around 1300. When the price falls, if OI also drops significantly, it indicates that the main action is deleveraging, and I wouldn’t worry too much about this kind of drop.
② This round of the market is not yet at the point to consider it over.
ZEC still has the NU7 event coming up, and market attention has not faded.
A few days ago, when $ZEC pulled back from a high, the decline in OI was even faster than the price drop, indicating that some leverage had indeed been cleared.
If the 1300–1350 range can hold and funds return, I would still expect it to move upward.
③ Regarding opening positions, I now prefer to wait for a better entry rather than chasing trades.
Around 1400, I would not directly chase longs, nor aggressively short near support.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September recorded 54.5, below the expected 55 and the previous 54.6, but it has remained above the expansion-contraction line for four consecutive months. The signal from this data is "resilient moderate slowdown": manufacturing is still expanding, but momentum is weakening, though it is far from recession levels, overall leaning towards "neither hot nor cold."
For spot traders, this data has a neutral short-term impact on BTC. On one hand, a slight economic cooling helps reinforce expectations of a "delayed rate hike," which is a mild positive for risk assets; on the other hand, the absolute level of 54.5 is still high, indicating the economic fundamentals are not bad, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to turn dovish quickly because of this. The 10-year US Treasury yield will likely remain in a high-level oscillation, so valuation pressure remains unresolved.
In the current volatile market, this kind of "neither up nor down" data is actually the most frustrating—there is neither a crash that offers a bottom-fishing opportunity nor a strong rebound to drive momentum. The strategy remains defensive: don’t be lured into buying on small intraday fluctuations, keep enough cash on hand, and focus on tomorrow night’s nonfarm payrolls and the turning point of long-term US Treasury yields. The primary task for spot traders now is still to endure this phase of strongest macroeconomic pressure.$TSLA Tesla contract rebounds, which part of the profits is the market betting on in advance?
OKX TSLAUSDT perpetual quote is about 357, 24-hour low is about 346.5; this is the contract quote, not the Nasdaq spot stock. Vehicle deliveries determine the current revenue base, while energy storage and autonomous driving options affect the forward valuation, with different realization times.
If the 1-hour chart holds above 346.5 and volume breaks through near-term resistance, I will raise my judgment on capital support; if it breaks below the low, or delivery growth is achieved through price cuts and profit margins continue to be pressured, the forward story will be difficult to support the valuation alone.When making $ with $ZEC, it's just $5, $10 at a time... But when losing, it's $500, $1000 in ONE candle. 💔 Now I finally understand why old traders always shout: 1. SET STOP-LOSS 2. MANAGE POSITION SIZE Otherwise one volatile coin is enough to wipe you out. My $ZEC story: Shorted at $600, it kept pumping, $700... $800... I kept thinking "it will dump, it will dump" Luckily my position was small and I STOPPED adding to average down. If I had more funds, I would have blown my whole account yester10U Challenge｜Day 4: Blew up yesterday, so today I’m being cautious
Yesterday’s blow-up really woke me up.
My first reaction after blowing up wasn’t to rush to recover losses, but rather—don’t open any trades today.
Because what small accounts fear most isn’t losing one trade, but losing and then getting emotional, thinking "I’ll win it all back in one go," which only leads to more chaos.
So up to now today, I’ve only opened one trade:
A short position on $ETH.
I find Ethereum’s recent price action quite interesting. Looking at the daily chart, the high-level resistance from the previous few bearish candles is still holding, and there hasn’t been a clean breakout pattern in the short term.
So this time I chose to try a short position first.
But as I always say:
Take trades when there’s an opportunity, wait when there isn’t.
My account balance is now 5.7U.
Still far from the original goal, even seems a bit out of reach.
But I’m actually not in a hurry anymore.
To take 10U further, it’s not about doubling it in a day, but learning to survive first.
Yesterday’s liquidation taught me one thing:
It’s okay to earn slowly, but never risk the rest just because you’re desperate to recover.
Today, I’m staying steady.
One trade at a time, we’ll see how far this can go.
#10UChallenge #ETH #Ethereum #Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptocurrency #TradingRecord #SmallCapitalChallenge #InterestRateHikeDelay #NonFarmPayroll #BitcoinETFThe overall market did not see a broad rally; instead, there was a clear style rotation. Trader Doctor Profit publicly announced shorting BTC and liquidating altcoins, which is not an isolated case but a reflection of the current market sentiment.
$BTC: Holding firm around 84,000, ETF funds are still providing support, but there is obvious resistance at 85,000. The mining sector is also undergoing reshuffling—Ethiopia has significantly cut power supply to mining companies, and Hut 8 has restarted bidding to acquire a Texas mining farm. With rising hash rate costs, mining is consolidating, a typical feature of a cycle bottom.
$ETH: Battling back and forth around 2,700, lacking independent catalysts, it can only follow the broader market. Expectations for re-staking withdrawals have weakened, easing selling pressure somewhat, but demand remains weak.
SOL and $XRP: Clearly under pressure. XRP’s RSI is only 44.8, and SOL is weakly oscillating near 118. During capital outflows, funds prioritize withdrawing from high Beta assets, making altcoins a cash-out machine.
Funds have not exited the market; they are merely contracting their front lines. BTC has become the only safe haven, while altcoins are bleeding. In this fragmented market, don’t rush to bottom-fish weak coins. Wait for BTC to give a clear direction before deciding whether to participate. That year I had just changed jobs
Had some spare money in hand
Every day people in the group were talking about crypto
At first, I took it as a joke
Later, seeing them show off their profits
I still felt itchy inside
Secretly downloaded an app
My first purchase was $BTC
It dropped right after buying
Dropped so much I doubted my life
Those days I checked the market even when going to the bathroom
Later, I really couldn't hold on
Sold it off
But not long after, it went up again
I stared at the screen cursing my own recklessness
Later, I learned a bit
Switched to $ETH
Not because I understood it
Just didn't want to fuss every day
Left it alone
And actually felt less anxious
Once my hands itched again
Chased $SOL
It just went sideways after buying
Endured for half a month
Just sold it and it started to pump
So mad I deleted the app
Now I only have a little left
I watch the ups and downs like a show
If I earn, I add to my meals
If I lose, it doesn't affect my life
No borrowing money
No going all in
No staying up late
When others shout buy signals, I just smile
Real money is my own
This thing has many opportunities
But more traps
Being able to sleep well is better than anything
Life goes on
Crypto is just crypto#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 Right now, looking at the market, I’m a bit unclear whether it’s a shakeout or just consolidation.
BTC’s chart is forming a converging triangle, getting narrower and narrower. I’ve been watching it for three days.
According to my original idea, it should bounce up to touch 85200 and then come down again, going up and down repeatedly until the direction becomes clear. But it’s not doing that; it’s just hovering around 83500, shaking out for too long. After such a prolonged shakeout, I’m starting to doubt whether I’ve underestimated its strength.
ETH is even more interesting. On the ETF side, BTC has had net inflows for nine consecutive days, while ETH has started to see outflows. Institutions are treating them differently—buying one like gold, selling the other like tech stocks. Logically, ETH should be weaker, but it can’t fall below around 2700, and today it even outperformed BTC a bit.
Could it be that ETH hasn’t finished rising? Institutions are selling, but the price isn’t dropping, which means someone is absorbing the supply. With this kind of divergence, it’s really uncertain who’s right in the end.
Looking at the data, institutions are voting with their feet. From the market perspective, ETH looks too resilient to be abandoned.
With these two conflicting signals, I choose not to take sides and will wait for the triangle to resolve itself. And it might not take too long—tomorrow night at 8:30 PM is the nonfarm payroll data release, which could be the trigger that breaks the triangle open.
This converging triangle is quietest when it’s closing and scariest when it breaks open. The direction it breaks is where the big move will happen. Don’t bet on direction during the closing phase; wait for the breakout and then follow.
What do you all think? Will this triangle break upward or downward in the end?
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $ETH $BTC $ZEC 比特币ETF九连流入吸金30.8亿，ETH却转流出：机构正在用脚投票 比特币ETF连续9日净流入，累计吸金约30.8亿美元，一举扭转了此前的大幅流出局面。而就在同一天，以太坊ETF净流出约281万美元，结束了此前连续7日的流入势头。一进一出之间，机构资金的选择已经摆上了台面。 比特币这边，钱确实在往里走，但节奏在变慢。9月21日单日流入曾达9.99亿美元，创下11个月来最大单日规模，到9月29日已经萎缩到6619万美元，相当于峰值的不到7%。资金高度集中在贝莱德的IBIT，9月21日当天IBIT单日净流入为3.81亿美元，约占当日总流入的38%。这说明机构在买，但更多是在维护已有仓位，而不是加速下注。 以太坊的问题不在“贵不贵”，而在“像不像比特币”。摩根大通的报告说得很直白：比特币ETF已经收回了此前流出资金的近三分之二，以太坊ETF只收回了三分之一。2026年一季度，摩根大通减持以太坊敞口89%，富达减持84%。以太坊现货ETF目前不提供质押收益，机构直接持有ETH或参与链上策略反而能拿到这部分回报，ETF通道的吸引力天然打了折扣。 说白了，机构把比特币当“数字黄金”来配，把以太坊Crypto Circle's Mental Breakdown Today: CT Twitching, BNB Holding Strong, NEAR Running Wild, HYPE Going Silent 😅
$CT Twitching #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在
Concrete (CT) was just slapped down from a high of 0.47 to around $0.40, down 7.56% in 24 hours, but still up 6.3% over 7 days and a massive 569% over 3 months. The 15-minute chart shows repeated friction in a narrow range between 0.38-0.44, with a large sell wall piled up in the order book at 0.4117-0.4118, sellers fiercely defending this level. Breaking below 0.40 opens the door for a deeper pullback; only a clean and decisive recovery above 0.4450 with volume support can give a chance to retarget 0.47. The recent surge was too sharp, now it's digesting profits. Don’t rush to catch the dip; wait until the sell wall is eaten through.
$BNB Holding Strong #创作者激励
Currently around $771, the 24-hour gain has narrowed to 0.22%, stuck in the critical resistance zone of 770-775. The 750-760 range serves as the support base for this rebound, with sellers repeatedly absorbed there. The most painful data point: the MACD histogram is exactly zero, meaning bullish and bearish momentum are mathematically balanced. Retail bulls make up 68.8%, top traders are 67.5% bullish, but the Taker buy/sell ratio is only 0.6574—active sell orders (4299) overwhelm buy orders (2826), indicating someone is blatantly distributing. 780 is the watershed; only breaking above it opens the door to 807 or even 850. If it can’t break, it will grind between 750-807. Like a weightlifter with the barbell at the chin, whether it can push up depends on the next breath.
$NEAR Running Wild
The strongest performer, NEAR surged from 4.76 to 5.34 in one hourly candle, breaking through the previous day’s entire box top at 5.17, up over 10% in 24 hours. Currently around 5.45, approaching the core resistance zone of 5.5-6.2. RSI at 74.80 and stochastic %K at 88.67 both in overbought territory. The most dangerous data: Open Interest dropped 12.24% while price rose—this is not new buying but longs using strength to close positions and distribute. 5.17 is the new line of life and death; holding it qualifies for testing 5.5-6.2, breaking it risks a retest of 5.0 or even 4.73. One bullish candle changed the outlook, but after that, watch OI closely—don’t be fooled by the "breakout."
HYPE Going Silent #Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议
Hyperliquid’s HYPE is around 88.93-89.55, fluctuating between gains and losses over 24 hours, ending with a slight rise or fall. A $329 million OTC block trade (3.75 million HYPE sold to a single institution) temporarily eased selling pressure, helping it outperform the overall market. But ETF funds withdrew $5 million on Wednesday, showing cooling institutional demand. RSI at 54.28, neither overbought nor oversold, OBV flat, buying pressure fading. 89.6 is the short-term watershed; holding it offers a chance to test 92-94, failing which it will continue to range between 85-90. OTC buying is good, but OTC buying doesn’t mean secondary market chasing.
Summary:
BTC’s ETF infusion rate is slowing, ETH’s is even reversing, the whole market saw $291 million liquidated in 24 hours, shorts squeezed but longs quietly exiting too. CT is digesting its rally, BNB is holding resistance, NEAR shows distribution signs after running wild, HYPE got a breath of life from OTC trades. Control your hands, don’t be a chump. 😅 **Behind GRASS's Two-Week Double: From Selling Data Packages to "AI Agents on the Web" — A Veteran DePIN Project Extends Its Lifeline by Swapping Its Narrative Anchor**
The CEO's lengthy essay shifts the valuation anchor toward the trillion-dollar AI market — and the secondary market has caught the scent of a new catalyst.$GRASS 🚨 Positive news triggers an initial surge, only to be slammed back down! This market is tailor-made to punish those chasing rallies.
🟠 Big brother $BTC: According to market data, it oscillates around 83,850, with resistance between 84,800–85,600, and support at 83,100 and 82,600. Holding 83,100 means the range can still consolidate; breaking below calls for caution of further dips.
🔵 $ETH: Tugging around 2,703, with clear resistance above 2,740–2,750, and observation points at 2,660 and 2,630 below. Don’t just watch the rebound size; the key is whether it can hold steady.
🩸 $ZEC: Around 1,408, showing its high volatility traits. Resistance lies between 1,445–1,480, with 1,370 as a short-term key level; also watch for a break below around 1,350.
📊 More concerning is the capital flow: BTC spot ETF ended a 9-day streak of net inflows, with a single-day net outflow of about $148.7 million; ETH ETF also saw an outflow of about $59.6 million. Meanwhile, PCE below expectations cooled October rate hike expectations, but US Treasury yields remain high.
📅 Next key event: US September Nonfarm Payrolls. Before the data release, the market may continue to fluctuate.
Remember: Good news without a rise means watch the selling pressure; a drop with buyers stepping in is true support. Don’t chase highs, don’t mistake a deep V for a reversal.
The above is just personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 First of all, happy National Day to everyone
According to past tradition, during major holidays like Spring Festival and National Day, BTC usually rises by three to five points, but this year it didn't
Damn $ZEC is still stuck at 1400, and it seems like it can't hold on much longer
The short-term king $NEAR has already broken 5, and the situation seems to be improving!
The new coin $CT surged today, and from the chart, 0.53 should be the peak. Personally, I feel it might be time to exit $2Z remains weak in the last 24 hours before unlocking, currently priced at 0.05748, just a step away from the intraday low of 0.05684, and this step is very likely to be breached. Before the supply lands, holders exit early, and hedging positions push prices down in advance; this is the most stable pattern in the week before a large unlock. In about three-quarters of the events we have analyzed, the asset underperformed the market during this period, with two sample periods showing consistent direction. $2Z is currently at the end of this path. Almost all long positions were liquidated today, while shorts suffered little damage, indicating that every intraday rebound was treated as an exit window. Both spot and futures markets are too thin to support, so even a small selling pressure can cause double-digit volatility. The elevated highs on the chart are a lagging signal left by previous trends. The RSI at 33 reflects the current state: the supply event outweighs the technical structure. Conditions for a bullish reversal: retake and hold above 0.06418 before unlocking, indicating that the chips have been digested in advance. After the supply lands, the direction will no longer be determined by this unlock; the bearish logic only applies until before the unlock.$BTC On October 1, 2021, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele posted a screenshot of a mining account on social media. The numbers on the screen were small: 0.00483976 BTC marked as "pending payment," and another 0.00599179 BTC as "expected to be mined," totaling 0.01083155 BTC, worth just over 500 USD at the time. For a country, this income is not even enough to cover many government meeting expenses. However, its significance far exceeds the amount itself. Bukele later wrote that the equipment was still being tested and installed, but this was the first batch of Bitcoin officially mined by the "volcano node." This made El Salvador the first government to publicly use national geothermal facilities for Bitcoin mining. x.com The date is undisputed. Bukele's original post, local media, and international reports all record it as October 1, 2021; The Block published a report at 04:27 Eastern Time on the same day, corresponding to 4:27 PM Taiwan time, also October 1. The Block's so-called "volcano mining" does not mean placing mining machines inside a volcano. Underground rock layers heat water sources, producing steam or high-temperature fluids, which geothermal power plants use to drive turbines to generate electricity. After the power is connected to ASIC miners, the equipment continuously performs hash calculations, competing with miners worldwide for the right to record new blocks and earn Bitcoin rewards. The volcano provides heat energy, and the miners complete the computations, "Volcanode"$BTC In one and a half hours, long BTC lost $2,553, chasing longs and got buried
On September 30th at 7:14 AM, a BTC long position was opened at 83,805 with 100x full margin, closed at 83,338 at 8:52 AM — a loss of 2,553 USDT, a return rate of -60.92%. Held for one and a half hours, closing volume was 410,000 U.
This trade was quite impulsive. Just after closing a short position in the morning with a profit of $1,631, before calming down, immediately chased a long position thinking "it should rebound after the drop." But right after entering, BTC kept dropping, falling all the way to 83,338, with floating losses growing bigger. In the morning, couldn’t hold on anymore, cut losses and exited, losing $2,553.
The money just earned wasn’t even warm yet, it was given back, plus a few hundred dollars more.
A painful lesson:
1. It’s easiest to lose money right after making money because your mind drifts.
2. Chasing longs right after a drop is a typical bottom-fishing mentality; don’t try to guess the bottom.
3. After a big profit, you must stop; don’t rush into the next trade.
Next iron rules:
· Mandatory half-day break after big profits or losses.
· Don’t bottom-fish or chase highs; wait for a clear trend before acting.
· Always set stop-loss on every trade; set it as soon as you enter.
Buying this "don’t drift" lesson for $2,553 was worth it.
#BTC #LongPosition #ChasingLongsLoss$CT isn’t a shitcoin. The platform itself focuses on institutional on-chain asset management. What’s happening this time is essentially a token reissuance for an older project.
The token has a total supply of 1 billion, with an FDV of around $488 million. The project team and institutional investors control roughly 65% of the supply, and most of those tokens are currently locked. That leaves relatively little circulating supply in the market, which can make it easier to push the price up. Currently intraday, staring at the positions on the screen, I take a deep breath. The short position was just squeezed out with a stop loss, and reversing to a 100x long position carries significant pressure, but after reviewing the market, the long-short logic has clearly shifted.
Macro: August core PCE year-on-year at 3.0% is below expectations, US Treasury yields have fallen back from a 24-year high, Citibank raised the BTC target price to $113,000 and ETH to $3,028, risk appetite is warming up. Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims are below expectations, employment is steady but not overheated, rate hike bets are cooling down, the macro environment favors the bulls.
Technical: BTC 15-minute moving averages are converging between 83,820-83,836, SAR (83,468) is supporting from below, SuperTrend (84,041) is short-term resistance. If the US stock market opens with volume and breaks above 84,041, the next target is 84,500. The key defense line is 83,500; breaking below it invalidates the long logic. For ETH, Bollinger Bands are extremely tight (upper band 2,710, lower band 2,682), buy depth ratio is 6.26, there is a large buy wall at 2,683, and 2,684 is the critical line. Holding above 2,705 could test the previous high at 2,721.
Let's see tonight, will it be a feast or a beating #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市
The leader has something to say
The NEAR spot ETF has been listed on NYSE Arca, ticker NRR, with a management fee of 0.75%. On the first day, net inflows were $35.5 million, trading volume $15.1 million, with a size of about $36 million. This ETF also plans to stake the held NEAR, with the yield included in the net asset value.
However, NEAR’s price dropped 7%, falling from 5.5 to 4.74, down over 9% in 24 hours, with increased trading volume. It rose 180% in 30 days, Bitwise ETF attracted $50 million in two days, and Intents cross-chain trading reached 32 billion. The data is good, but the price is not rising.
I believe this is a realization of positive news. Before the ETF launch, NEAR had already doubled, and expectations were fully priced in. The first day’s $35.5 million inflow is not large enough to support profit-taking. Buying at the top now means taking over the position.
In terms of operation, do not chase. Wait for a pullback near 4.5 to stabilize, then consider light buying. If it falls below 4.5, keep waiting. The ETF is a long-term channel, not a short-term catalyst.
Long positions on Bitcoin at 82,800 twice and 83,000 once have all been closed for profit; currently in cash. Tomorrow night’s nonfarm payrolls are key; ADP employment at 90,000 exceeded expectations. If nonfarm is also strong, rate hike expectations will rise, putting pressure on Bitcoin. Long-term US Treasury yields are above 5.6%, macro pressure remains. No directional bets before data release. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Do not chase gains or cut losses; wait for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-loss set properly.Recent trends and latest prices of GRASS, plus market analysts' views. Let's align the timing first: it is now **2026-10-01 22:16** in the evening, so "October 2" refers to tomorrow, and "last night" should be the night of September 30. I'll first pull market data to verify the 0.8181 price level.
My outlook for tomorrow (10/2) and this week
The conclusions of two mainstream prediction models are quite consistent: **Sentiment is bullish, but short-term is severely overbought, with a higher risk of correction than further rally.
In summary
The expert consensus is: **Short-term (tomorrow) is overbought with high correction risk, don't treat Monday's 0.8 as a new starting point; mid-term sees room for altcoin season tailwinds and Multicoin narratives, but the October-end unlock is the biggest looming variable. Correction to the 0.56–0.63 range is the healthy pullback level given by most models.
A reminder: data conflicts are severe among these prediction sites (some still cite old April $0.40 data), and crypto short-term trends are inherently unpredictable. The above is just information compilation and does not constitute investment advice—position sizing and stop-losses are far more important than price point predictions. $GRASS Spot active buying is increasing, but the price not rising is even more worrisome
When active buy orders for $ETH continue to increase but the price remains stagnant, it indicates the presence of a substantial passive sell side in the market. Buyers appear very aggressive, but every price chase is absorbed by limit sell orders. This divergence often carries more information than a simple price drop.
If the sell orders are eventually consumed, the price will quickly break through the original resistance zone; if active buying gradually weakens, the absorbers may gain the upper hand. The key to judgment is not the buy-sell difference at any single minute, but the duration near resistance levels, transaction density, and support after pullbacks. Buying more before a breakout does not mean the buyers have won.
This kind of absorption can also occur across multiple markets. Passive selling on centralized platforms, on-chain pool rebalancing, and arbitrageurs moving prices across markets collectively shape the final price. Looking at only one order book can easily misinterpret local liquidity as the intention of the entire market.
If the price repeatedly tests the same area but each pullback is shallower, it indicates absorption may be shifting the supply-demand balance rather than a temporary show.
True strength is not about someone constantly charging forward, but that the sell walls ahead are indeed thinning.The cost of shorting against the trend, the right-side reversal after the bears' defeat
I pressed the close position button at 22:18. The BTC short position (average price 83377) was forced to stop loss at 83970 due to a short squeeze, resulting in a loss of -125% (-2832U) with 100x leverage; the ETH short position (average price 2675) also fell at the rebound of 2693, losing -75% (-2009U). Only the SOL short position earned 441U by following the weak downtrend.
This deep V reversal is a typical "short squeeze" scenario. The 30-day trend on the daily chart is still upward (+7.77%), and I committed the cardinal sin of shorting at the top against the trend. Since the bearish logic has been completely falsified, I chose to join the winning side and switched to full long positions.
I opened a long position on BTC at 83987, a very passive entry almost at the resistance level. The current primary task is to guard against amplified volatility when the US stock market opens. Strategy: closely watch the 83500 support line.
My second position on ETH is around 2696, lacking momentum support; if volume breaks through 2705, I can push the stop loss to breakeven; if it falls below 2684, I will manually stop loss. $BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Many people have not yet realized that what truly influences the market right now is not the K-line itself, but the changing expectations of Federal Reserve liquidity #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
The market has gradually delayed the rate hike forecast, and this sentiment has quietly been reflected in the crypto market. The key focus now is the September non-farm payroll data.
If employment data is strong, rate hike speculation will resurge, putting pressure on BTC; if employment weakens, expectations for looser liquidity will rise, providing upward momentum for risk assets.
BTC has short-term support at 84000 and resistance at 87000; there will be more volatility before the data is released.
As a trader working with real funds, I will not heavily bet on the outcome in advance, choosing instead to hold a light position and wait for the data to come out before seeking opportunities The first time I got into crypto was through a friend
He said this thing could turn things around
I was half convinced and opened an account
My first purchase was $BTC
It dropped right after I bought it
Those days, I felt unmotivated to do anything
Later I sold it
Then it slowly went back up
I was so frustrated I kept slapping my leg
Later I switched to $ETH
Not because I understood it
Just too lazy to move
Left it alone
And surprisingly didn’t lose much
In between, I also chased $SOL
Bought at the peak
Sold at the bottom
Now it’s funny to think about
My position was small
Just playing with spare money
If I made money, I’d treat myself to a chicken leg
If I lost, I treated it as tuition
No borrowing money
No going all in
No staying up late watching the market
When others shout trade signals, I just listen
But when I really trade, I make my own decisions
There are many opportunities in this circle
But even more traps
Being able to sleep well is better than anything
Life goes on
Crypto is just crypto#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 · The reappearance of the monthly bottom pattern is a positive signal, but the current rise must be driven by spot buying rather than derivatives. 1.39 million BTC are concentrated at 85,000, about 760,000 will turn into unrealized profits, with a profit ratio exceeding 75%, which is usually a historical precursor to a long-term bull market.
· Key range: 80,800 is the core mid-term support.
· Right-side signals: need to wait for the 10-year US Treasury yield to fall + ETF funds to resume net inflows + price to increase volume and stabilize above $85,600. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 Here's a detail many people haven't noticed: On September 21st, Dogecoin's single-day trading volume hit $3.25 billion, the highest in nearly a month.
What does that mean? Usually, daily volume is around a billion or so, but that day it tripled. The price shot up from 0.087 in a straight line to 0.0996, a 14% increase in one day.
I was supposed to go to bed early that night, but ended up watching the market until 12:30 AM. Seeing the trading bars getting taller and taller, my palms were sweaty—not from fear, but excitement. Such huge volume doesn't lie; retail investors can't muster $3.2 billion, so this had to be big money sweeping in to buy. And they didn't leave after buying—the price stayed steady above 0.09 for the next few days, not giving even a penny discount to outsiders.
My wife woke up in the middle of the night and asked why I wasn't asleep yet. I said, "Almost there, almost there." But in my heart, I quietly made a note: September 21st—looking back, this might be the starting point of this rally.
Big volume always precedes big moves; seasoned traders know this well. Now that volume has shrunk and price stabilized, the main players are just waiting for the starting gun.
Hold on tight—when the gun fires, we need to be on the train.Big Brother Maji's current positions show a paper profit of $73,000, but breaking it down, it's almost just one position holding up the gains.
25x long 35,000 ETH: paper profit of $590,000
40x long 272 BTC: loss of $20,000
10x long 209,000 HYPE: loss of $220,000
10x long 1.225 billion PUMP: loss of $277,000
The $590,000 profit from ETH is almost entirely wiped out by combined losses of $517,000 from the other three positions, leaving only $73,000 in paper profit.
A few weeks ago, his account's paper profit once surged to the tens of millions. As BTC and ETH positions were gradually reduced, profits kept giving back, and the total paper profit narrowed to the current figure.
This is the harsh reality of high leverage: paper profit is not actual profit, just unrealized numbers on the books. When the market shakes, millions in paper profit can quickly shrink to just tens of thousands.
As long as positions aren't closed, the green numbers on the books don't count as real gains yet. $ETH $HYPE $BTC $CORE price weakness ≠ decentralization is just a slogan, don't mix these two things together
In discussions, one viewpoint is very realistic: even if the chain cannot be tampered with, if large holders unlock and dump, causing the price to fall, retail investors still lose money. Chain security does not equal price security. I completely agree with this.
Price fluctuations are determined by market funds, bull and bear cycles, and the rhythm of chip release. No crypto project can guarantee a continuously rising price, and CORE naturally faces this issue, with the selling pressure risk from large locked positions maturing, which everyone needs to be aware of.
But the core of our discussion—decentralization—is defined as whether a few people can tamper with on-chain transactions or control the entire public chain. This concept has never included "guaranteeing the price won't fall."
Take Bitcoin as an example: bear market crashes and whale selling are normal, but no one says Bitcoin's decentralization is just a slogan because of price drops.
A quiet ecosystem is a shortcoming CORE currently needs to address, which belongs to the ecosystem construction level; large holder unlocking and dumping is a secondary market trading risk; underlying network decentralization is about the public chain ledger's security. These three are independent and cannot be lumped together.
The ecosystem needs continuous development, market risks cannot be ignored, but the decentralization progress of the underlying network should not be denied based solely on market performance. Everyone is welcome to discuss rationally.
⚠️ Risk reminder: This article is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment adviceOctober opened green, but I'm not buying the bounce yet.
BTC is back above $84K, up about 1.5%, and ETH did a bit better at around $2,717. Total market cap is near $2.89T. On the surface that looks fine.
What bugs me is the ETF side. After the biggest weekly BTC ETF inflow since last October ($2.4B), funds flipped to roughly $149M in outflows in the latest session. Add ETH and SOL funds and it's over $220M leaving. Money that chased the dip last week is already taking profit.Brothers, Er Gou wants to talk about a particularly twisted matter today.
The CLARITY Act failed in the Senate by 49 to 50 votes. Logically, this is a major negative, as the regulatory framework is gone again.
So what happened? BTC actually rose nearly 11% after the vote, and ETH rose 12%.
Er Gou's translation: Without the law, the SEC took matters into its own hands, and even tougher than the bill.
SEC Chair Atkins clearly stated that if Congress doesn't provide certainty, the SEC will use its existing authority to clarify on-chain fundraising rules itself. How exactly?
First move: Green light for fundraising. Startups can raise up to $5 million within four years without registration; they can raise another $75 million every 12 months. Previously, issuing tokens was a "is it a security?" guessing game, now the SEC directly provides a compliance framework.
Second move: Five-year innovation exemption for tokenized stocks. US stocks like Apple and Tesla can be traded compliantly on-chain, with a cap of 75 S&P 500 component stocks.
But! Er Gou must pour cold water. These exemptions are all temporary, valid until 2031. SEC Commissioner Peirce is leaving next week, leaving only two commissioners at the SEC. If the political winds change, the exemptions could be overturned at any time.
Impact on BTC and ETH:
Short-term neutral to slightly bullish, the market is already voting with its feet. But don't get carried away, this is not permanent legal protection, it's a "first come, first served" window.
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 Not running away just because I can't hold on — just got forcibly liquidated on one position, still holding a multi-million ZEC long.
According to Odaily (Onchain Lens) on 10/1 around 20:33: a certain Hyperliquid trader still holds about 8,065 ZEC longs, nominally about $11.38 million, opened at about $1,457.6, liquidation price about $1,363.9; unrealized loss about $379,700, cumulative loss about $1.4 million, funding fees paid about $87,700. Monitoring shows about two hours ago another ZEC position worth about $3.11 million was liquidated, losing about $190,100. Single account snapshots can change and do not mean the ZEC direction is fixed. At the time of writing, OKX ZEC is about $1,395, BTC about $83,981. Not investment advice.
$ZEC MSFT is the most stable among big tech, currently near a new phase high. The previously given 400 strong mode line and 465 first buy point line are both far below, the structure has not changed, and the trend remains intact.GOOG intraday tested 350 and then pulled back after this right-side confirmation line. Currently, it has returned to around 340.79, still consolidating within the 336.31 to 348.65 range. As long as 336.36 is not broken, the daily momentum remains unchanged; 350 is the right-side confirmation line.