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$LIT
At the other end of the leaderboard, it took the hardest hit today.
LIT dropped 11% in 24 hours, and contract open interest shrank by 7%.
Long and short accounts are about evenly split, but positions are being pulled out; some have already exited.
Don't reach out if it falls below 3.9; wait to see if it regains strength.
Would you dare to catch it at this level, or watch a bit longer? Analysis only, not advice, trade at your own risk.
$LIT 【On-Chain Trading Activity｜xyz:META】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $730.78
▪ Transaction amount this time: $324,468.06
▪ Leverage: 20x
Note: This address has earned over $229,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +9.71% Super short WeChat Moments Day 3, Article 2:
$ETH
Shorted at 2722, exited at 2695
Saw a quick drop near 2722, went short immediately.
Entered at 2715.55, closed at 2695.48, return +66.00%.
The lowest point once reached around 2688, actually considered holding to 2680 or even lower.
But today it was clear there was support around 2685, and the previous rise started from this level.
So didn’t get greedy, exited directly at 2695.
Better to lose a little than more.
Take as much as the market gives.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Your post meaning: LIT dumped 14-20% because Robinhood chose Bitstamp for US perps, not Lighter, so Lighter's expected volume/buyback narrative broke, expectation gap sell-off + liq cascade. *3 Rewrites:* *1. Clean Twitter Thread Version:* Any brothers stuck in $LIT? 🤨 At press conference, Robinhood announced it will offer crypto perps trading to eligible US users via Bitstamp (which it acquired). Before, why LIT had high premium? Core logic: Lighter has close ties with Robinhood (Robinhood invResearch on Supply Release, Derivatives Leverage, and Event-Driven Structural Risks
Report Date: September 30, 2026
Research Subject: OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP)
Public Chain: Solana
Research Framework: Tokenomics + Market Structure + Derivatives + On-chain + Macro + Event Risk
I. Executive Summary
As of September 30, 2026, the price of TRUMP is approximately $2.03, with a circulating market capitalization of about $573 million, a fully diluted valuation of approximately $2.03 billion, and a circulating supply of about 281.9 million tokens, accounting for roughly 28.2% of the total supply.
TRUMP has retraced about 97.3% from its historical high of $75.35 in January 2025.
On the surface, the asset has undergone a significant price compression; however, from a research perspective, "having fallen a lot" alone does not constitute a bullish reason.
The core judgment of this report is:
TRUMP is currently better defined as "neutral to bearish" rather than a strong trending short.
This judgment mainly comes from five aspects:
First, the circulating supply ratio is still relatively low, with ongoing supply releases expected in the future.
Second, the initial project allocation is highly concentrated, with 80% of the total supply allocated to Creators and CIC Digital-related entities.
Third, the current FDV is about 3.5 times the circulating market cap, indicating that future supply releases still🔥Two weeks ago, people were still shouting about stagflation, but tonight the market completely tore up that script.
🧊PCE year-over-year is 3.4%, core at 3.0%, inflation has not continued to worsen; 📈Q2 GDP was even revised up to 2.2%, economic resilience still exists.
This is what truly excites the market tonight:
It's not "the economy collapsed so interest rates will be cut," but rather a more comfortable combination is emerging — **inflation cooling down, yet the economy still holding up.**
💥Therefore, the October rate hike expectations have been pushed down again, and BTC surged back near 85000.
🚀ETH reclaimed 2700, SOL returned above 120, and gold also strengthened.
But I won’t go all in just because of a big jump overnight.
⚠️Tomorrow’s Asian session is the first test, and then there’s the non-farm payrolls.
The data gives direction, but the price still needs confirmation.
🎯So the most important thing about 85000 now is not "can it rise," but whether it can truly hold.
If it holds, it’s a structural change;
If it doesn’t, it might just be a data-driven night mood.
Which one are you betting on?
For personal record only, not trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Today really feels like hard mode has been activated.
After 8:30 PM, gold surged.
Then Bitcoin followed the surge, and it was a fierce rally,
pushing almost all major altcoins up as well.
However, after 8:45 PM, gold started to weaken.
After 9:30 PM, gold went straight down without looking back,
which also caused Bitcoin to quickly drop after the US stock market opened.
At this time, major altcoins were all dropping sharply,
instantly wiping out the bullish trend that had just formed.
Around 9 o'clock, I saw Bitcoin surging strongly upward.
From a pure price action perspective,
Bitcoin had already broken out of the consolidation platform.
I also went long on a basket of major altcoins.
When Bitcoin suddenly plunged, I felt the bears were still very strong,
so I cleared all my positions during the rebound.
To sum it up in one sentence,
recently it really has been hard mode.
It's difficult not to be swayed by the market.
The key is to have the determination to admit mistakes and correct them promptly.
I just hope the recent wear and tear can be a little less. #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 No matter how many times it moves, it keeps coming back to this level. The market has been grinding around here for nearly two weeks, and honestly, the patience test is getting ridiculous. 😂 Remember when Bitcoin first pushed through $80K? It spent a long time consolidating around that area before suddenly breaking out and racing toward $87K. 🚀 Now we're seeing a similar-looking battle again: neither the bulls nor the bears seem willing to give up, and every move gets pulled back into the same$NVDA AI computing power expectations remain, what will drive the pre-market perpetual price higher?
This afternoon, OKX's NVDAUSDT pre-market perpetual is about 228.9, with the page showing a 24-hour low of about 227.3. The contract price reflects traders' expectations for the U.S. stock market open and does not equal the Nasdaq spot trading price. What truly supports the valuation are still data center revenue, delivery capability, and gross margin.
If after the official open, spot volume confirms and subsequent orders and profits are realized in sync, I will raise my judgment on the trend continuation; if the contract premium widens but the spot does not follow, and capital expenditure grows faster than monetization, then be cautious of overly optimistic expectations.The first time I heard someone talk about this was at a small restaurant downstairs.
The next table said they bought some $BTC as savings.
I went home and downloaded an app.
Tinkered with it until midnight but still didn’t get it.
That night after buying, I tossed and turned, couldn’t sleep.
Every time my phone lit up, I grabbed it to check.
When it went up, I wanted to add more; when it dropped, I wanted to run.
Later I heard people say $ETH was also worth playing.
So I followed and got some.
After fees, I felt the pain for a long time.
After messing around a few times, my money didn’t grow, but I got thinner.
The dumbest thing was adding more when it dropped.
Always thinking it would rebound tomorrow.
But the next day it kept going down.
My wife asked why I was always distracted.
I said work was tiring.
But actually, I was anxious inside.
Later I uninstalled the app for a few days.
Not looking at it was actually peaceful.
Then I only kept a little $SOL.
Whether it goes up or down, I let it be.
No borrowing money, no going all in, no touching what I don’t understand.
I quit all the groups shouting trade calls.
I treat those showing off profits as jokes.
If they were really making that much, who’d have time to post every day?
This circle is hot today, cold tomorrow.
Chasing it wears you out.
Only positions you can sleep soundly with are worth holding.
Profits are luck; losses are tuition.
That’s about it.
All lessons I learned the hard way.#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 🔥The most popular phrase in the market right now might be: BTC will sooner or later replicate the deep pullback of 2023.
But I think we shouldn't rush to apply a template just yet.
🧠In 2023, BTC encountered resistance around $25,000. Although it briefly broke through a local secondary high, it quickly fell back below the key level, ultimately forming a level-top structure.
📈However, this cycle has already shown an important change—BTC has created a higher weekly high and has even sustained oscillation above the previous high.
This means the current market structure is not exactly the same as in 2023.
📊Looking at the retracement magnitude, the maximum pullback in this bear market is about 54%, while the previous cycle reached about 77%.
So even though both are called "bear market pullbacks," the depth may not be the same, and the rhythm certainly cannot be fully replicated.
🎯Corrections can of course happen, but what really matters is not "whether it will fall like in 2023," but whether the structure can still hold after the drop.
The market will always repeat some patterns, but rarely the exact same path.
Do you think BTC will deeply pull back this time, or will the structure continue to evolve upward?
This is just a personal market record and does not constitute trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 #美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 The US-Iran negotiations have resumed, but the room for concessions on both sides is limited. The talks have restarted but differences remain hard to resolve. Trump has taken a tough stance, and geopolitical risk premiums have not faded. Brent crude oil is fluctuating around the $100 mark, and the market's expectations for easing tensions may be overly optimistic. If the negotiations break down, oil prices will rise again, directly pushing up inflation. This will resonate with the current 30-year US Treasury yield breaking above 5.6%, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates and putting pressure on risk asset valuations. Geopolitical competition is becoming a key variable in the path of inflation decline. The macroeconomic dominance still lies with interest rates. BTC and other risk assets are unlikely to have systemic opportunities in the short term, so defense remains the main theme. $RAY is still near the upper edge, waiting for a closing confirmation
The price is still close to the upper edge of the reference range, but not yet at the level to directly expect a breakout. The high and low points in the past few hours were 2.0927 / 1.8961 USDT, and the just closed 5-minute candlestick was at 2.05 USDT.
There has been no significant increase in volume in the last 15 minutes, so currently it can only be considered a relatively strong position, not a volume breakout. If the closing price can stand above the reference high point later, combined with a rebound in volume, it will be more worth following up.🔥 $BTC & $ETH｜Key levels are being tested
🟠 $BTC: around $83.8K
After pulling back from the recent $87K+ high, BTC is still fluctuating near $83K.
📍 $82K–$83K is an important short-term support zone
📍 If it climbs back above $85K, the market may refocus on the $87K area
📍 If it breaks below $82K, beware of further downward movement in the range.
🔵 $ETH: around $2.68K
ETH is temporarily holding above $2.6K, but the $2.74K–$2.75K range remains a resistance zone that needs to be broken and confirmed.
📍 $2.62K–$2.65K: short-term support
📍 $2.75K: key breakout observation level
📊 Latest catalysts worth noting:
• BTC ETFs have recently maintained inflows, about +$66.2M on September 29
• ETH ETFs saw about -$2.8M on September 29, ending a streak of 7 consecutive days of inflows.
• The US 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5.2%, with ongoing pressure on long-term rates.
• The market is watching PCE, nonfarm payrolls, and the Fed's October rate path, along with tonight's Micron earnings.
⚔️ BTC is defending key support, while ETH needs to regain momentum.
What’s really worth watching next is not chasing the rally, but: who will first complete an effective breakout ETH at $2700, are you stuck?
ETF inflows just broke after seven consecutive days, the Glamsterdam testnet is still running, and the price dropped from 2805 back to 2630, sideways for a whole week—but just as you hesitate whether to cut losses, the box has quietly changed hands. Is this wave a "dead water after a failed breakout," or the last shakeout before the main uptrend?
First, look at the surface: it can't rise, but it hasn't crashed either.
On September 21, it surged to 2805, everyone shouted 3000, but then it dropped back to 2630 in five days. For the following week, it oscillated between 2630-2750, and when you open the candlestick chart, it looks exactly like a flatline on an ECG. Nearly 7 days flat, up 7-11% in the last 30 days, market cap 326 billion, still number two. To put it plainly, this is not a crash, but a high-level consolidation after a failed surge.
But do you know what’s most painful?
At the 2700 level, all the "ETF inflows + upgrade testing" have already been priced in. You’re not bottom fishing; you’re gambling on direction at the box’s midpoint.
First thing: ETF money has stopped.
The week of September 21, ETH ETF net inflow was 690 million, the strongest week since late August. Everyone got excited, shouting "institutions are here."
Then?
On the 28th, inflows dropped to only 17.1 million, and on the 29th, it turned negative with a net outflow of 2.81 million. The seven-day inflow streak ended.
Assets under management still at 17.8 billion, accounting for 5.4% of market cap, with a 30-day cumulative inflow of 980 million. The money hasn’t fled, but the slope has flattened. In plain language: institutions are still here, but not rushing to buy.
Are you expecting ETFs to keep buying explosively every day to push ETH to 3000? Wake up, buying momentum is slowing, not accelerating.
Second thing: Glamsterdam testnet is running, but the market isn’t buying the narrative.
Sepolia fork target is September 28, a public test before the mainnet upgrade. Fusaka was launched last December to expand L2 capacity, and now Glamsterdam is the next step.
The logic is clear: upgrade launch → faster, cheaper L2 → increased value of ETH settlement layer → institutions more willing to stake.
But the market rewards execution, not expectations. If the testnet has issues and the mainnet is delayed, the price will drop first as a warning. Only if the testnet runs smoothly and the mainnet is confirmed can the second wave ignite.
The sideways movement you see now is the market waiting for an answer: will Glamsterdam work or not?
Third thing: Technicals tell you 2700 is not a breakout point.
The path is clear:
September 15 low at 2357 → September 18 above 2600 → September 21 surged to 2805 → September 23 dropped back to 2637 → then a week sideways between 2630-2750.
The 2700 you see is right at the upper-middle edge of the box. This is not a breakout; it’s a turnover zone.
Resistance above: 2740-2750 (repeated supply) → 2780-2805 (this round’s top) → 2810 (no volume breakout, forget about 3000)
Support below: 2650-2660 (box lower edge) → 2630 (September 23-24 low) → 2550 (important structure) → 2400 (deep retracement target)
Daily chart fell back from overbought and flattened, 4-hour neutral, volume sharply contracted from the huge volume on the 21st. This is turnover, not a crash. But the direction after turnover depends on whether 2630 holds.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
ETF 30-day cumulative net inflow 980 million, institutions haven’t fled
Glamsterdam testnet running, upgrade narrative intact
BitMine and other treasuries continuously hoarding ETH, close to 5% of circulating supply
RWA/tokenized stocks still on ETH, settlement layer status solid
DeFi TVL rebounded from 69.2 billion to 95.4 billion, on-chain share over half
On the other side:
ETF seven-day inflow streak broken, buying momentum slowing
ETH/BTC still low, funds not shifting to Ethereum
BTC weak around 83000, breaking 82600; if ETH can’t hold 2650
2700 already priced in the good news, not cheap chips
Still 45% below ATH 4950, heavy overhead resistance
Key level 2700, only $70 above the death line at 2630.
Resistance above: 2750 (must hold to talk about next leg) → 2810 (volume confirmation) → 3000
Support below: 2650-2660 (box lower edge) → 2630 (break to reduce positions) → 2550 → 2400
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Aggressive:
Light long positions near 2700, stop loss at 2628. First target 2750, second target 2800. Reduce half at 2750. Don’t be greedy; box trading profits come from discipline.
Conservative:
Wait for 2630-2660 to consider going long, stop loss 2545. Better entry near 2550. If not reached, hold small position and wait. Let retail chase highs.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if volume breaks and holds above 2810, with a pullback not breaking 2750; target 3000. Fake breakouts should be abandoned immediately. All gains below 2810 are box rebounds, not trends.
Short:
Light short on weak rallies at 2740-2750, stop loss 2815, target 2630. Don’t short near 2630; that’s the box lower edge and easy to get caught.
Position sizing: single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital, leverage within 3-5x.
Risk control priorities (memorize):
Daily close below 2630 → reduce positions and wait, next supports 2550, 2400
ETH ETF continuous net outflow → 2700 likely to fail
BTC breaks 82600 → reduce ETH positions accordingly
Major Glamsterdam testnet failure → short-term expectation crash
ETH now looks like Bitcoin before its 2020 breakout—
Everyone is waiting for 3000, but no one wants to endure the box at 2700.
The day 2630 breaks, you’ll realize:
It’s not that ETH won’t rise, it’s that you chased highs at the box’s upper edge again.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI Trump renaming AI to SI is not just a play on words but a strategic signal to seize the definition rights and governance rule-making authority of "superintelligence." The executive order requires federal legislative recommendations within 60 days and enlists tech giants to sign voluntary safety agreements. The White House is pursuing a "soft regulation + industry collaboration" approach that fosters innovation while controlling risks. The America.gov portal further positions the government as the first testing ground for SI applications. This is a mid-term positive for computing power, AI security, and government cloud sectors, but the establishment of a regulatory framework also means rising compliance costs. Against the backdrop of high long-term US Treasury yields and pressure on risk assets, this news may boost tech stock sentiment in the short term but is unlikely to reverse the market logic dominated by macro liquidity.#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $BTC
The biggest opponent in the market is never the candlestick chart, but the desires hidden deep in your heart.
When the public is panicking, you must dare to calmly assess the opportunities; when the market is in a frenzy, you need to know how to restrain yourself and exit. Trading is inherently a game against human nature, and your judgment will rarely align with the emotions of the majority.
Do not seek conformity in trading, nor look everywhere for people to agree with your views. Many people trade not because they trust their own judgment, but because they want to find a crowd to cheer them on. Once the market fluctuates, a few words from others can easily disrupt the original plan.
Trading from start to finish is a battle with yourself.
Overcome greed by not blindly increasing positions when the market surges; overcome fear by not panic-selling at the lows; overcome wishful thinking by not hoping the market will forcibly move in your expected direction. Continuously review your trades, constantly correct yourself, and stick to your rules to succeed in the market over the long term.
Market opportunities are never lacking, but very few can stay true to themselves.
The above is only personal insight and does not constitute any investment advice. US core PCE for August came in at 3.0% YoY, below the 3.3% expected. The monthly figure was 0.2%, also softer than the 0.3% forecast. The market reacted almost immediately: the US Dollar Index slipped toward 101, gold jumped roughly $14, and $BTC surged more than $1,000. 🚀 What does it mean? At least for now, there’s less pressure for another rate hike in October. New York Fed President Williams also said there’s no rush to raise rates, adding another layer to the market’s interpretation. So ye🔥In a volatile market, the easiest way to lose money is by "guessing ahead."
📊BTC currently has no clear room to move up or down, with 85200 acting as resistance and 82500 as support, and the price is grinding back and forth in between.
🧱The long-term cycle is the same; above 82000 still holds defensive significance for now; if this area breaks, then support around 75000 needs to be watched.
🚨So I’m not in a hurry to stamp a "second rise" yet.
To strengthen again, we need to wait for the right-side structure to appear first. Time hasn’t fully passed, structure isn’t confirmed, betting early is prone to being shaken out repeatedly.
💵What’s more noteworthy is that Coinbase is again showing a significant negative premium, indicating some US-based funds are exiting.
But fund outflow doesn’t necessarily mean the market will fall; what really matters is whether sustained net inflows reappear later.
🎯Now it comes down to three words: **Wait for confirmation.**
Price confirms a breakout, funds confirm inflow, trend confirms establishment.
Patience may seem slow, but in this kind of market, it’s often more valuable than acting rashly.
Do you think BTC will break 82500 first, or take out 85200 first?
For personal record only, not trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $SOON Don't rise anymore, my 10u ant position will explode at 0.5Micron's earnings report is approaching, AI storage demand is heating up, and the computing power narrative is spilling over into the decentralized AI sector. As a leader, WLD is expected to be driven along. I lean slightly bullish in the short term but remain cautious of a shakeout. On the four-hour chart, it has rebounded over 50% from the low of 0.4786, showing divergence with the one-hour pullback; current price is 0.5401, up 6.9% in 24h, with a trading volume of 336 million. 1.999 billion is not money already lost
$BTC is still some distance from 80,405.
This number is calculated assuming a drop below that level.
How this number is calculated:
Add up all the long positions placed below 80,405.
When the price hits a certain level, that level’s positions are sold by the system.
Scanning downwards, the total amount scanned out is 1.999 billion.
Common misunderstanding:
It represents intensity, not balance.
The previous round with the same criteria was only a few hundred million.
This time it piled up to nearly 2 billion, indicating more people borrowed money to go long than last time.
If it really falls to 80,405, the positions sold are not just at that level.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy再购BTC、多家财库同步增持 $BTC Brothers, don't just focus on BTC's ups and downs these days; what really deserves attention might be U.S. Treasuries.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has broken through 5.6%, hitting a new high since 2002. Long-term interest rates continue to rise, and the market worries not just about a single rate hike, but about long-term inflation, fiscal deficits, and debt supply pressure.
Interestingly, the expectation for a rate hike in October has dropped from 70% to 50%. In other words, the market's real concern may not be short-term rate hikes, but that long-term interest rates remain high.
Additionally, hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash U.S. Treasuries, accounting for about 7% of tradable U.S. Treasuries, with some involving high-leverage basis trades. If bond market volatility expands and high-leverage positions are forced to liquidate, liquidity pressure could further intensify.
This is also why BTC's rebound shouldn't be rushed.
Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 83,500, with 85,000 as resistance and 82,000 as key support. Until long-term interest rates stabilize, BTC's rebound potential will naturally be limited.
In fact, investing ultimately pursues more than just account numbers. When you accumulate enough assets to support your life, you gain the confidence to choose not to work overtime, to spend time with family, and to live more slowly.
At that time, money is not just money; it is an extension of time, as well as dignity and a sense of security.
So don't frequently trade just to catch every fluctuation now. First, see if U.S. Treasury yields can stabilize, then see if BTC can hold 82,000.
If the bond market isn't stable, wait; if BTC isn't confirmed, don't rush in. Opportunities are always there; don't disrupt your rhythm because of a momentary impulse. #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 The 30-year US Treasury yield has broken 5.6%, reaching a new high since 2002, while the October rate hike expectation has dropped to 50%. This divergence indicates that the market is pricing in long-term inflation and fiscal risks rather than the short-term interest rate path. As the anchor for global asset pricing, the sustained high long-end yields directly suppress risk asset valuations, limiting BTC's rebound potential. More dangerously, hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash and US Treasuries; once high-leverage basis trades deleverage, it will amplify bond market volatility and drain liquidity, triggering cross-market shocks. Bond market signals are indeed more worth watching than BTC's short-term fluctuations. Until long-end yields stabilize, risk assets are unlikely to have systemic opportunities, and defense remains the main theme. $BTC $SOL Below is a revised version more like a crypto news flash + market analysis in Chinese, softening the original wording while adding market structure and risk information:
Writing
🚨 #ZEC is once again approaching $1700, experiencing intense high-level shakeout!
Commentary from the leader | Market breakdown
$ZEC previously dropped quickly from around $1697 to near $1360, then rebounded to about $1460, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 4.6%. After this round of significant volatility, market focus has shifted back to the main themes of institutional product expansion and protocol upgrades.
Currently, the Grayscale-related ETF split has been implemented, and 21Shares' European ETP continues to provide institutional access; meanwhile, the NU7 upgrade plan is expected to enter testnet on October 6 and mainnet on November 5. Fundamental catalysts remain, but short-term capital speculation has clearly intensified.
📌 The key point: continuous positive news does not mean the price can rise indefinitely.
$ZEC surged from around $800 to near $1700, more than doubling in this phase. The current high-level repeated oscillations and frequent long upper shadows on the candlesticks indicate significant profit-taking and selling pressure near $1700.
Therefore, at this stage, more attention should be paid to the strength of support after pullbacks rather than simply chasing gains.
🔎 Key ZEC levels:
• Around $1460: current rebound zone
• Around $1400: short-term key support to watch
• Around $1300: important defense zone if $1400 breaks down That year, there was a repair shop at the entrance of the neighborhood, and I squatted nearby waiting.
I heard two masters talking about virtual currency, saying it was like picking up money.
I went home and downloaded the app, but didn’t understand anything.
First, I bought some $BTC.
That night after buying, I checked my phone three times.
My wife asked if I had a stomach ache.
I said it was nothing, just couldn’t sleep.
Later, I heard others say another one was good too.
So I tried $ETH.
After the fee was deducted, I stared at the balance in a daze for a long time.
Tinkering back and forth, the money didn’t increase, but I lost weight.
Once when it dropped sharply, I was stubborn and added more.
After adding, it kept falling, and I sat on the sofa for a long time without speaking.
The child called me to play, but I wasn’t in the mood.
During that time, my temper was bad, and I didn’t eat well.
Later, I deleted the app.
Deleted it, then installed it again, installed it then deleted it again.
Slowly I realized I was too impatient.
Now I only keep a little $SOL.
When it rises, I don’t shout; when it falls, I don’t curse.
I watch the order posts in the group as entertainment.
When someone urges me to rush in, I just say wait a bit longer.
No borrowing money, no going all in, no touching what I don’t understand.
Being able to sleep peacefully is more important than making quick money.
Earning is luck, losing is tuition.
This business is for fun, not for a living.
These few words of mine are all paid for with real money. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 Inflation is cooling down, but BTC still hasn't pulled up? I'm curious to see who will be the first to lose patience this time. Once the US August PCE data is released, I guess many shorts will start watching the market again. Core PCE year-on-year is 3.0%, overall PCE year-on-year is 3.4%, both below market expectations. Previously, there was concern that inflation wouldn't be contained, but now suddenly this happens, giving room for speculation on rate cuts.
However, I advise everyone not to get too excited too soon. The decline in inflation is indeed good news, but the Fed hasn't promised an immediate rate cut. The market's favorite move is to use good news to push prices up first, lure in the momentum buyers, and then hit them hard afterward.
Based on the previous market, BTC rebounded from 82556 and once touched above 84000 again. Next, I will watch the 84000 to 84500 range; only a volume breakout here will give a chance to challenge 85000 again. If it gets smashed back near 83000, then the quality of this rebound needs to be reconsidered.
For ETH, I’m watching if 2700 can hold, with further targets between 2720 and 2750. For SOL, I’m watching 120; if it can’t reclaim this level, there’s no need to rush to chase for now.
Personally, I’m still leaning bullish, especially when macro pressures show signs of easing. But going long also requires picking the right spots; chasing right after good news is released often means buying at the peak of short-term sentiment.
Also, don’t just get excited by the candlesticks. The performance of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stock market after opening can all influence the crypto market’s next direction.
Damn, the more suddenly the market gives candy, the more I want to first check if there’s a knife inside the candy wrapper.#US 30-year Treasury yield breaks 5.6%, hitting a new high since 2002
The leader has something to say
The US 30-year Treasury yield has broken 5.6%, the highest since 2002. The 10-year yield is also above 5.2%. The long-end pressure has not eased.
Interestingly, the October rate hike expectation has fallen from 70% to 50%. Short-term expectations have dropped, but long-term rates have not come down. This indicates it's not just about rate hikes; fiscal deficits, bond supply, and term premiums are all pushing yields up.
Hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash Treasuries, accounting for 7% of tradable Treasuries, a historical high. Many are high-leverage basis trades. With the long end continuing to rise and bond market volatility increasing, these positions are forced to deleverage, which will impact overall liquidity.
For risk assets, a 5.6% risk-free rate is the ceiling. BTC is unlikely to strengthen independently in the short term.
I have already entered a long BTC position at 83,000. Stop loss is set at 81,500, with targets between 86,000 and 87,000. Tonight is the PCE report, tomorrow night Micron's earnings, and Friday is the nonfarm payrolls—three events packed together. My position is light; I am not betting on a single direction.
No chasing highs or selling lows, waiting for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set. Good luck.#October rate hike expectations retreat, tonight's PCE is key
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
In the past two days, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 70% to about 50-50. It's not that inflation has truly come down, but Williams' comment of "no rush" + oil prices retreating + consumer confidence collapsing made the market discount the "continuous rate hikes" for now.
Core PCE year-on-year at 3.3% and month-on-month at 0.3% is the watershed.
If tonight the core month-on-month is ≥0.3% and consumption#US August Core PCE Drops to 3%
[Old Leek Observation] $BTC
US August Core PCE is out: year-on-year 3.0%, market originally expected 3.3%; month-on-month 0.2%, expected 0.3%.
This data is somewhat positive for the crypto market.
The reason is simple: inflation is lower than the market expected, so concerns about the Fed continuing to raise rates in October will decrease. After the data release, BTC quickly pulled back from around $83,000 to $84,400. But don’t interpret this as "rate cut expectations returning."
Core PCE is still at 3%, which is still noticeably above the Fed’s 2% target.
Also, this consumption data is strong, with August personal consumption expenditures rising 0.9% month-on-month. So it looks more like:
Inflation pressure is a bit less than expected, but US consumers have not clearly cooled down yet. For BTC, the short-term key is whether $84,000 can turn from a resistance level back into support.
If it can hold above $84,000 tonight, then looking at $85,000–$86,000, the technical structure will be much better than before.
If it falls back below $83,000, then today’s PCE rebound can’t be considered successful.
Entry: $84,200–84,800
Take profit: $86,000 / $87,500 / $89,000 / $92,000 / $94,000
Stop loss: $82,900 Damn, PCE finally gave the bulls some oxygen. Can BTC surge straight up this time?
The just-released US August inflation data is quite something. Core PCE year-over-year is 3.0%, while the market originally expected 3.3%; overall PCE year-over-year is 3.4%, also below the 3.7% expectation. Both data points are below expectations, so the market's tense nerves can finally relax a bit.
After the news came out, BTC briefly broke above 85,000, and gold also rebounded. A few days ago, we were still worried about the Fed continuing to raise rates, but now traders have to readjust their expectations.
However, I won’t go all-in just based on one data release. There’s a detail here: this PCE involved adjustments in statistical methods, some inflation decline is influenced by data revisions, and the 3.0% core inflation is still far from the Fed’s 2% target.
For BTC, I’m watching if 85,000 can hold. If it holds, then I’ll observe if there’s sustained buying around 85,500; if it rallies then falls back, 84,000 becomes my key short-term defense level.
For ETH, I’m watching 2,700 and 2,750; for SOL, first see if 120 can hold, then consider breakout opportunities near 122. These are all trading observation points, and I’ll adjust based on real-time market conditions.
Personally, I’m still bullish, but this time I’d rather wait for a pullback confirmation than chase the news with high leverage.
Damn, macro data lights the fire, but how far the market can burn depends on whether the funds are willing to keep buying.Today really feels like the hard mode has been activated.
After 8:30 PM, gold surged.
Then Bitcoin also followed with a strong rally,
pushing almost all major altcoins up.
However, after 8:45 PM, gold started to weaken.
After 9:30 PM, gold went straight down without looking back,
which also caused Bitcoin to quickly drop after the US stock market opened.
At this time, major altcoins were all dropping sharply,
wiping out the bullish trend that had just been established.
Around 9 o'clock, I saw Bitcoin surging strongly upward.
From a pure price action perspective,
Bitcoin had already broken out of the consolidation platform.
So I went long on a basket of major altcoins.
When Bitcoin suddenly dropped sharply, I felt the bears were still very strong,
so I cleared all my positions during the rebound.
To sum it up in one sentence,
recently it really has been hard mode.
It's difficult not to be swayed by the market.
The key is to have the determination to admit mistakes and correct them promptly.
I just hope the recent wear and tear can be minimized a bit. 【On-Chain Trading Activity｜ZEC】
Monitored address 0xa399 opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: 1,449.39 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 30,480.57 USD
▪ Leverage: 10xUS Core PCE significantly below expectations! Inflation cooling down, watch if $BTC can break through 85500!!!
US August Core PCE annual rate is only 3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.3%, hitting a six-month low since February. Inflation easing means less pressure for the Fed to raise rates further, which is positive for risk assets.
After the data release, the market will be somewhat conflicted:
Theoretically, cooling inflation is negative for the dollar and positive for Bitcoin, so it should rally; but note that positive news often leads to "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
Previously, our short positions around 85000-85500 have already faced pressure and pulled back. Now with the positive data, the key focus is whether it can reclaim the resistance at 85500.
- If it breaks and holds above 85500 with volume, the consolidation pattern will be broken, and the short strategy should be abandoned;
- If it fails to hold after the breakout, it will likely return to range-bound trading, continuing the oscillation that benefits both longs and shorts.
Key support below is at 83700, with strong support at 82700. Upcoming non-farm payroll data is also important; avoid heavy positions betting solely on news, as news-driven volatility can be sharp. Keep leverage low. $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Does a more prosperous Layer 2 necessarily mean ETH will rise?
Layer 2 networks help Ethereum handle more transactions, which is an important achievement in scaling. However, the link between "Layer 2 growth" and "ETH price increase" still lacks the value transmission mechanism.
If Layer 2 uses ETH to pay for data and settlement costs, and brings more assets and applications back into Ethereum's security system, the mainnet will gain stronger network effects. But if user growth mainly accumulates in independent tokens, independent sequencers, and closed liquidity, the value ETH gains may be less than the apparent activity.
Therefore, evaluating Layer 2 should not only count the number of transactions but also consider settlement frequency, data demand, cross-layer liquidity, and the role ETH plays in the economic system.
I still am optimistic about $ETH's scaling path, but optimism does not mean avoiding the value capture issue. A truly strong ecosystem not only gets more people to use it but also ensures that the scale of usage can be reflected in the underlying asset.This morning $BTC bounced back from 83,000 to above 84,000, and $ETH and $SOL also caught a breather, with the comment section starting to shout "the bottom is here."
A reminder: a rebound and a reversal are two different things. Every upward move in a low-volume market could just be tricking those who missed out into getting on board, only to get stuck halfway up the mountain. The easiest to bust at the table are those who go all in as soon as the cards look a bit better—they're not betting on the cards, but on their own emotions.
The positions truly worth adding to are those taken only after the price has "proven itself" with volume. With this little volume now, no matter how good the bounce looks, just watch for now. Impatience is the number one reason retail investors lose money. Did you hold back this morning?"Gold is really a bit tricky to handle intraday this time 😂
The platform fees are relatively high, so the cost becomes quite obvious after a few short-term trades; on MT5, it's easy to lose position due to volatility, so even if the direction is correct, the rhythm gets disrupted first.
Currently, gold is fluctuating around $4200. The latest PCE data is moderate, and market expectations for an October rate hike have clearly cooled down. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike once fell to about 37%. The dollar and US Treasury yields are under pressure, providing some support for gold.
Next, the key is whether it can hold steady around 4200. On the upside, watch the 4225–4300 range; on the downside, first look for support near 4100.
The high interest rate environment is not completely over yet. For gold to continue strengthening, besides safe-haven funds, we also need to see how the dollar, yields, and subsequent employment data cooperate.
The more volatile the intraday short-term moves are, the more important it is not to just focus on direction; trading costs and position control are equally important.
#Gold #XAUUSD #OctoberRateHike #PCE #FederalReserve #PreciousMetals$BTC BTC 30-minute level
This ID's view: The current 30-minute trend is forming the first upward central pivot, which is a continuation of the uptrend, characterized by oscillating consolidation and repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Entry: Wait for a minor-level bullish divergence + bottom fractal, preferably buying low at the central pivot or at the third buy point after breaking through ZG.
Stop loss: Short-term defense is placed below the minor-level low; the ultimate defense for the central pivot layout is below ZD, and breaking through it means support fails.
Chan Theory structure
After the low point starts rising, it enters central pivot oscillation; only breaking through ZG upward can continue the trend, while making a new low breaks the upward structure.
Wyckoff volume-price matching observation
Volume shrinks at the end of the rise, volume expands during the rally, volume contracts during the pullback which is a shakeout, and breaking through ZG requires confirmation with a volume-increasing bullish candle.
Core observation points
Wait for volume expansion to stand above ZG to open upward space; once it breaks below ZD, abandon the bullish idea. Ondo has new expansions again
Ondo Finance is collaborating with Kakaopay Securities for the global distribution of Korean stocks.
The on-chain US stock logic is beginning to expand to Asian stocks
Both parties agreed to cooperate in three areas:
Building an international distribution framework for Korean listed stocks;
Joint research to support tokenized infrastructure for global distribution;
Establishing a joint working group to explore business opportunities for overseas retail investors.
$ONDO
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $UNI
Uniswap remains a major decentralized exchange across the Ethereum ecosystem. I’m watching trading volume, liquidity, and on-chain activity to understand whether decentralized trading demand continues developing.🔥This data is indeed impressive this time, but I still dare not call it a “bull return” immediately.
📈The reason is simple: PCE has cooled down.
August PCE year-on-year is 3.4%, core PCE 3.0%, while the US Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2%. Inflation pressure has eased, and economic growth is stronger than previously estimated.
💰The market immediately began to lower the October rate hike expectations, and risk assets like BTC and gold strengthened simultaneously.
BTC has returned to around 85000, ETH back to 2700, SOL approaching 121 again.
🚨But data-driven rallies have an old problem:
The first bullish candle looks the best, but only the next day do we know if it’s deceptive.
So I won’t chase tonight.
📌First, see if 85000 can turn from resistance into support;
📌Then see if Asian session funds continue to buy in;
📌Finally, wait for the nonfarm payrolls to give the market another hit.
Only if these conditions are met is the structure worth reassessing.
Do you think 85000 can hold this time?
For personal record only, not trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 🔥Yesterday we were still saying "ten thousand people crowding at one door," tonight that door just collapsed.
📊The PCE gave a very clear answer: overall inflation in August was 3.4%, core inflation 3.0%, both below market expectations; Q2 GDP growth was revised up again to 2.2%.
📉Inflation is cooling down, but the economy hasn't clearly stalled. This data combination gives the market room to imagine a "soft landing."
💥So the bets on rate hikes cooled off, US Treasury yields went down, and BTC surged back to 85000 in one move.
ETH returned to 2700, and SOL also bounced back near 121.
🧠But the real stimulus isn't this single candlestick, it's that market expectations suddenly changed.
Two weeks ago, we were trading stagflation; now we are trading inflation easing plus economic resilience.
⚠️But I still say: don't announce a bull market just because it rallied overnight.
Whether the Asian session tomorrow accepts it is the key.
🎯85000, do you think it's a starting point or a midway stop?
For personal record only, not trading advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Citibank believes the SEC may still formulate some crypto regulations, with macro factors continuing to influence risk appetite. The co-founder of CoinRoutes pointed out that the issue of Bitcoin's treatment as bank collateral remains unresolved, and the current market has not yet entered a true FOMO phase. Bitwise's survey of 15 large institutions shows that discussions have shifted from whether to allocate to how to allocate, with Bitcoin classified alongside gold as a store of value, and institutional allocation ratios mostly between one and two percent.
The market situation is more straightforward. BTC is currently priced around 84565, with MACD golden cross expanding, and the price has risen above the moving average system resistance level, indicating bulls are still dominant without weakening. The liquidation chart shows a high density of 50x to 100x leveraged short positions stacked above 86184; if the price continues to rise, it will trigger forced short covering, creating an upward liquidity gap. The main liquidation target zone is between 87200 and 88000. Just turned the car into a back street to pick up food, glanced at the liquidation chart, and the call to expedite the order came first, but I didn't answer.
Entry zone is set between 84300 and 84700, with a defensive stop loss at 83500, take profit initially at 87200, and if broken through, then look above 88000 liquidity pool. If it falls below 83500, the short squeeze logic fails, and I won't hold the position.
$BTC
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
@OKX星球 On September 30, Binance announced that its payment service Binance Pay has integrated with the QR code payment infrastructure of Japan's mainstream mobile payment platform PayPay. Foreign tourists visiting Japan who have completed identity verification can directly scan PayPay merchant QR codes through the Binance app or present a payment code to complete payments, supporting settlement using stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, and crypto assets like BTC, BNB, ETH.
During the transaction, crypto assets will be automatically converted to Japanese yen at real-time exchange rates and settled to merchants. Tourists do not need to exchange fiat currency in advance or bear additional on-chain transaction fees. This feature is only available to tourists visiting Japan; local Japanese residents are currently not supported.
Binance Pay is currently continuing to promote interoperability with national QR code payment standards across countries in the Asia-Pacific region.Last summer, even the convenience store owner downstairs was talking about this.
I overheard while buying cigarettes, went home and searched.
The more I searched, the more hooked I got, feeling like everyone else was making money and if I didn’t get in, I’d lose out.
My first purchase was $BTC.
After buying, my hands trembled, like I was doing something sneaky.
The next day it went up a bit, so I treated myself to a barbecue.
The third day it dropped back down, and I even felt bad about the barbecue money.
Later I heard people hyping $ETH.
I followed and bought some.
After fees, I stared at the balance in a daze for a long time.
At that time, I was distracted at work too, secretly checking my phone during meetings.
My boss asked if I hadn’t slept well.
I said yeah, I’ve been having insomnia lately.
But it wasn’t insomnia, it was those few strings hanging in my heart.
The dumbest thing I did was when it dropped, I wasn’t convinced and bought more.
After topping up, it kept falling, and I was completely numb.
Lying in bed at night doing the math, the more I calculated, the clearer I became.
Eventually, I just deleted the app.
After three days, I installed it again.
Even after reinstalling, I barely bought anything, just checked.
Now I still have a little $SOL left.
When it rises, I don’t add; when it falls, I don’t cut losses.
Friends urge me to rush in, I just smile.
Those screenshots in the group, I stopped believing them long ago.
People who really make money don’t have time to shout every day.
Treat this as entertainment, not a lifeline.
Borrowing money to play will cause trouble sooner or later.
Being able to sleep well is better than anything.
Making money is luck, losing is a lesson.
This little insight of mine was all bought with money.#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 A major news outside the crypto circle, don't just watch it as a spectacle: FTC is launching a comprehensive investigation into top AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, preparing to issue subpoena-like compulsory information requests, investigating "unfair or deceptive practices."
What does this have to do with the $BTC in your hands? AI has been the engine of risk appetite in the US stock market and the entire market over the past two years. Once regulation shifts from "encouraging your innovation" to "investigating your violations," the sector will move from wild growth to being shackled — it may not crash in the short term, but the imagination space at the top will be gradually compressed.
Crypto and AI are now emotions on the same rope. Once the AI narrative cools down, don't expect crypto's risk premium to remain unaffected. I will keep a close eye on this line.⚡ SHORTS WORLD | $BTC
$BTC around $83K–$84K — still a dangerous zone for overleveraged longs.
🔴 Below $82K → $80K comes into focus
🟡 $82K–$85K → expect volatility
🟢 Above $85K with volume → short squeeze risk rises
PCE + US yields could bring another volatility spike. 👀
Don’t chase shorts. Wait for confirmation, watch OI + volume, and protect the SL.
#BTC #ShortsWorld #Crypto #OKXThere will be turbulence tonight, don't press recklessly during the day: focus only on these 3 signals before the data
Non-farm payrolls haven't landed yet, the biggest risk is itchy hands during the day. Before big money shows its stance, the market is usually sticky and fragmented, like a false calm before a storm. Don't switch positions frequently; first mark these three coordinates.
BTC: 83454. Moving sideways for five days, the cage between 83500—85000 is almost at its edge. The ETF is still supporting the bottom, but hot money is waiting for the data. Low volume during the day is normal; the real direction will come at night.
$ENA: 0.252. Second day of pullback, the previous rise was too rapid, so digestion now is not surprising. There is constant resistance above 0.25. It doesn't really follow the overall market sentiment; it profits from interest and fee hedging. If panic pushes it down to 0.22, it should actually be put under close watch. Don't touch it during the day.
DOGE: 0.09395. Meme is the emotional thermometer. If it doesn't continue to weaken during the day, it means the sentiment hasn't dissipated. When the market rebounds, it tends to surge the most; when the market weakens, it often leads the decline. 0.09 is the bottom line.
Before the data night, quick hands are no match for steady eyes. Draw the lines first, then wait for the market to choose sides on its own. This is just a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 【On-Chain Trading Update｜BTC】
Monitored address 0xdd0c opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 84,267.37 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 505,604.21 USD
▪ Leverage: 20x
Note: This address has earned over 308,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +26.82% Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$SOON Leading accounts are bearish, position size is bullish: account long-short ratio 0.7, position ratio 1.24; the difference in the proportion of two types of long positions narrowed by 1.21 percentage points. Divergence is easing, position size still leans bullish; this convergence has not yet aligned the two indicators in the same direction.
$NIGHT Leading accounts are bearish, position size is bullish: account long-short ratio 0.88, position ratio 1.12; the difference in the proportion of two types of long positions expanded by 1.11 percentage points. More bearish accounts, position size still dominated by bulls, the two indicators have not yet aligned.