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$CORE is currently priced around 0.019, with a market cap of 29 million.
In September, validators issued excess rewards, triggering an emergency hard fork that burned over 150 million CORE. User assets remain safe, but governance trust has been damaged.
✅Narrative: Satoshi Plus, BTC dual staking, SatPay, protocol buyback
⚠️Risks: 1.5 billion circulating / 2.1 billion total supply, upcoming unlocks + thin market, rebound depends on BTC sentiment, no endogenous cash flow
Short term: Hold 0.018 to see an oversold rebound; break 0.0167 to target 0.013-0.015; only stabilizing at 0.024–0.026 will attract incremental funds.
Conclusion: Only small positions to bet on a rebound, avoid heavy bottom-fishing waiting for recovery. Narrative is decent but not blue-chip, risk is very high.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复
$The Fear and Greed Index has reached 71, with the market overwhelmingly greedy, yet the top gainer $INJ is running outside the upper Bollinger Band—current price 7.525, upper band only 7.317, price pressing against the outer edge of the channel upwards. This is the most unusual detail: instead of a pullback from overbought, funds are choosing to accelerate within the greed zone.
Breaking it down, $INJ's moving average structure is a standard bullish setup: MA5=7.1524 firmly above MA20=6.7698, MACD histogram +0.0519 continuously positive, 30 candlesticks volatility at 24.06%, indicating volatility is fully activated. But RSI=84.1 is a clear overheat reading, combined with a funding rate of +0.0100%, bullish paying sentiment is quite full, so a short-term pullback to the moving average could happen anytime. If BTC consolidates at a high level, rotation funds in such high-elasticity assets won’t withdraw immediately; a pullback is an opportunity, not a reversal.
Directionally, I lean bullish but refuse to chase highs. Entry reference is 7.15–7.30, the gap between MA5 and the upper Bollinger Band, enter after pullback confirms support; take profit 1 at 7.85, corresponding to the measured extension after breaking the upper band; take profit 2 at 8.20, the natural target at previous high sentiment level; stop loss at 6.75, breaking below MA20 invalidates the bullish structure. $POL perpetual contract, 50x short position, floating profit 789.77%.
Many people are deceived by the rebound of small altcoins, mistakenly thinking a new market cycle has started, but in essence, it is just a short-term sentiment-driven bull trap.
During POL's surge phase, large on-chain holders continuously reduced their positions, and a large amount of long capital chased the price. Currently, the profitability of the altcoin sector is rapidly declining, and funds are unwilling to stay long-term. POL's market relies more on short-term sentiment; after the heat dissipates, selling pressure will be released in concentration.
Short opened at 0.12244, mark price fell back to 0.1031, the upper resistance zone was repeatedly tested but could not be broken, confirming the bearish structure. Stop loss moved up to break even, hold patiently, waiting for further downside to materialize. $ZEC $AKE #美联储10月再加息概率破55% Greed index at 71, $DOGE funding rate only +0.0100% — despite such strong bullish sentiment, the leverage premium is practically flat, indicating that the willingness to chase highs is actually weak. Price +3.38% standing at the current price of 0.0871, but MA5=0.087436 is still below MA20=0.087632, no golden cross on the moving averages; RSI=55.4 is neutral to slightly bullish, MACD histogram -0.0003024 remains bearish, Bollinger upper band at 0.0888789 forms the first resistance. This is a typical low-volume rebound with bears still present.
Bull-bear game view: a slightly positive funding rate means bulls have a slight advantage but are not crowded; the real danger is the 7.65% amplitude spike within 30 K-lines — a false breakout near 0.0889 above could easily trigger a bull liquidation backlash. Directionally, I prefer to buy on dips rather than chase the rally.
Entry reference at 0.0864–0.0868 (Bollinger lower band support at 0.0863851 + RSI recovery after a dip); Take profit 1 at 0.0888 (Bollinger upper band resistance); Take profit 2 at 0.0900 (extension of previous high, requires MACD histogram to turn positive); Stop loss at 0.0855 (breaking below Bollinger lower band would damage the short-term structure).
Simultaneous focus: $LSK funding rate -0.3074% indicating crowded shorts and relatively strong; $PUMP current price 0.00411, RSI 41.9 relatively weak, showing clear strength divergence between the two.$DOS short position floating profit 206.46%, from 0.2383 to 0.2137
This round of altcoin small-cap rebound is essentially a "news-driven sell-off" scheme.
DOS looks intimidating with the rise from the low point, but from a larger timeframe perspective, it's just a technical rebound. I opened a short at 0.2383 with a clear basis: the exchange net inflow has been positive for several consecutive days, and whales are frantically swapping chips during the rebound window.
Additionally, the overall risk appetite in the altcoin sector is contracting, with funds hiding in Bitcoin and stablecoins. High Beta $DOS in this environment will fall more sharply than it rises. The failure of the upper resistance test is the best confirmation for shorting. Holding the position without moving, stop loss has been raised to the cost line, letting the trend play out on its own. $ZEC $AKE #美联储10月再加息概率破55% An app with 8 core attack schemes, targeting from iOS 12 all the way to 26.
This is not security research; this is assembly line work.
SlowMist and the OKX security team discovered that malicious code was embedded in FomoPeek versions 1.1 to 1.2. On the surface, it looks like a normal app, but behind the scenes, it contains a full iOS attack framework that can automatically select attack methods based on your phone model and system version.
From a market maker's perspective, the most frustrating thing is not how advanced the technology is, but that this thing was downloaded as a legitimate app. Users installed it voluntarily, not by clicking some shady link.
My guess is simple: an attack framework of this level doesn’t look like the work of a small workshop. Someone is harvesting in bulk, and this time they got caught.
The only thing we can do now is wait for SlowMist to release the complete list of affected addresses. Until then, if you have installed this app, move your assets out first.
Before the signal comes, don’t rush to bottom-fish any "wrongly killed" assets.
#OKX百万规划师
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $ZEC A tweet named four coins for revaluation, but the market only rewarded one: ARB quietly rose in half an hour
Ridiculous, half an hour ago a tweet put $ARB, DRV, UNI, NEAR on the revaluation list, but the market only rewarded one. I'm bullish but not chasing—buy on dips, cut losses if it breaks 0.2025.
The tweet said the market should reward solid coins. Half an hour after the list was released, DRV -2.25%, NEAR -0.41%, UNI only +0.4%—no money moved.
ARB, however, ground up from 0.2117 at the event to 0.2169, +2.46%—a 7-day 54.38% trend proving itself. But RSI 77 is overbought, 1h SAR flipped above 0.229; OI down -10.01% compared to 9/16 archive.
Resistance above: 0.229 (1h SAR) → 0.23 (24h high)
Support below: 0.2086 (today's low) → 0.206 (4h SAR)
Watershed: 0.2025 (24h low), hold to buy the dip, break and cut losses.
Market cooperation—bullish market, 90 coins: 73 up, 17 down, fear-greed index 71, BTC 81069. Empty position set buy on dip at 0.206–0.2086, exit if breaks 0.2025; hold position to 0.23 and take half profit. Likes are my energy for watching the market.
$ARB $BTC#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
On the afternoon of September 19, Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly around $81,300, with a 24-hour increase of about 5.6%. It surged to $81,690 in the early morning but failed to break through further. Ethereum simultaneously consolidated around $2,620, rising about 6.3% in 24 hours. SOL continued to outperform the market, trading near $113 with gains exceeding 10%.
Liquidation data also confirms the intensity of the short squeeze. In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidation was about $530 million, with short positions accounting for $471 million, and over 108,000 people were forcibly liquidated. The short positions have been thoroughly cleaned out, but this also means the fuel for continued short squeezes is decreasing—without new shorts entering, the upward momentum naturally weakens.
Key points this afternoon:
· BTC: Resistance above at $81,700–$82,300, which is a dense pressure zone combining the early morning high and the Fibonacci September high; the first support below is at $77,700 (23.6% retracement level + real market average overlap zone), breaking below this points to $76,500.
· ETH: Above $2,646 is the early morning high, a breakthrough is needed to open up space; below, $2,574 (near the 60-day moving average) is a position that short-term bulls must hold.
$BTC $ETH #Cryptocurrency
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% Ecological Narrative Perspective: A Hot Narrative ≠ Immediate Market Realization
The hype around sector narratives is high, but it's important to distinguish whether the story's expectations have already been priced in or not.
Fully Priced Narrative: The sector concept is widely spread online, prices have already surged in advance, and positive news tends to trigger a pullback.
Narrative Yet to Ferment: The logic holds, but market attention is low, and prices haven't reacted significantly yet, leaving room for speculation. Don't rush into popular stories; first assess whether the price has already reflected the expectations.
Key Market Observations:
🟠 Market: Overall liquidity environment
🔵 Sector Blocks: Whether the hype matches the price increase
⚠️ Market Phenomenon: Many sectors heavily discussed in major communities have already priced in much of the expectations.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% $SOL hits an 8-month high, shorts liquidated for $36.72 million, next stop $120?
SOL surged 11% in a single day, breaking through $112, reaching the highest level since January this year. But what really ignited the market wasn't the price — it was the $85 million trading volume of Bitwise's staking ETF BSOL, with $36.72 million in short positions liquidated across the network within 24 hours, accounting for 96% of SOL's total liquidation volume.
What does this mean? In the past 24 hours, those betting against SOL were wiped out. Futures trading volume reached $12.14 billion, while spot volume was only $1.49 billion. Leveraged funds are pouring in wildly, and shorts are paying the price for this rally.
Even more noteworthy is the fundamental side. The Solana chain's RWA (Real World Asset) scale has surpassed $4 billion, with over 350,000 wallets holding related assets. The Solana Foundation announced this week its integration with Allfunds — the world's largest fund distribution network, connecting more than 3,300 asset management institutions managing approximately €1.9 trillion in assets.
This is not a fleeting meme coin frenzy; it's the prelude to institutional capital entering the market. When shorts are liquidated and institutions are positioning, which side are you on? Over the past decade or so, global investors have grown accustomed to a comfortable strategy: borrowing cheap money in low-interest-rate countries and then buying assets in high-yield markets. Now, this machine is being dismantled worldwide by synchronized interest rate hikes.
The Federal Reserve is raising rates, the Bank of Japan has increased its policy rate to 1.25%, and Europe is turning hawkish again. The issue is no longer a single central bank "turning hawkish," but rather oil prices and inflationary pressures forcing multiple major economies to tighten simultaneously. The low-interest currencies that once served as financing sources are becoming scarcer, arbitrage costs are suddenly rising, and exchange rate volatility is forcing leveraged funds to withdraw prematurely.
This is especially brutal for the crypto market. BTC can respond to the depreciation of a single country's currency, but it is difficult to ignore the simultaneous tightening of liquidity in the US dollar, yen, and euro globally. On the surface, the market may still have hotspots, but the underlying liquidity is declining. Once volatility rises, the first assets to be cut are often not the worst-performing ones, but those with the best liquidity that can be sold immediately.
I don't believe this means risk assets will never have rallies again, but the nature of those rallies has changed: in the past, cheap capital lifted all valuations; in the future, they will rely more on real cash flow and limited structural opportunities. The most frustrating thing about high interest rates is that they don't knock you out with one punch, but rather take away a little oxygen from valuations every day.
#全球高利率预期再升温 🔷 $BTC $81k: oil scared, shorts paid
• BTC +6%: $81,400; $250M shorts burned in 4 hours
• IEA: through Hormuz −13.1M barrels/day
• Government bond yields +90 bps
• Rekt Capital: $82k — moment of truth; miss it = second rejection like in May
• Glassnode: above breakeven $76,660; treasuries $80,500
🧠 Yields rose from inflation fear, not strength — that's why BTC rose together. The squeeze finished it off.
⚠️ Without spot on weekends, it will deflate
❓ $82k: breakout or rejection?👇After BTC broke through $80,000 again, institutional funds finally gave continuous confirmation.
The US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $159.5 million on September 17 and another inflow of $324.6 million on the 18th, totaling $484.1 million over two days, reversing the previous two consecutive days of large outflows.
However, "funds have returned" cannot be directly interpreted as a "full risk-on".
The 10-year US Treasury yield remains close to 5%, and the Fed just raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%; meanwhile, US equity funds saw a net outflow of $31.44 billion over the week, marking the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals.
Therefore, the current data more strongly supports that BTC is receiving institutional fund recovery on its own, but global financial conditions have not simultaneously eased.
The next critical point is around $82,000. If the ETF continues to have net inflows and the price effectively breaks through this repeatedly resisted area, funds and price will form a second layer of confirmation; if the ETF turns negative again and BTC falls back below $80,000, this round of recovery may still be only a temporary inflow.The Chinese yuan suddenly surged, with the offshore rate breaking 6.7 for the first time since 2023. This is not just because the US dollar weakened; more importantly, exports have been extremely strong, and companies holding a lot of US dollars need to convert them into yuan, selling dollars to buy yuan, which pushed the exchange rate up. The OTC USDT also dropped to around 6.65.
What does this mean? The more valuable the yuan becomes, the cheaper it is for domestic players to buy USDT, BTC, and ETH when calculated in yuan. For BTC, this means the entry cost is a bit cheaper, which is a small positive. As for ETH, if funds rotate from BTC to ETH later, this cost advantage could be further amplified.
But don’t get too excited; yuan appreciation doesn’t necessarily mean cryptocurrencies will rise. The real deciding factors are still US dollar liquidity and the ETF-related funds. Going forward, we need to watch three things simultaneously: continued yuan appreciation, persistent USDT discount, and renewed inflows into BTC and ETH. Only then is it worth paying attention to. In short, the yuan strengthening might be quietly changing the cost dynamics for domestic funds playing crypto. China Asset Management Hong Kong used the HKD stablecoin HKDAP to buy a digital asset, completing the first use case. I stared at this news for a while, and my first reaction was—what does this have to do with me?
HKD stablecoin, led by Standard Chartered, issued by Anchor Point Financial. Compliance, licensed, regulatory framework, each term more official than the last. So what? They bought a digital asset.
I tried to imagine: a Hong Kong auntie walks into a bank and asks what this thing can do. The teller says, you can use it to buy digital assets. The auntie asks, how much can I earn? The teller says, this is the first use case, demonstrating feasibility.
Got it. This is just a model room, fully furnished, but no one lives there.
I used to follow these "firsts" and "milestones," and the result was always a three-day buzz, then nothing. The lesson is: the more beautiful the compliance narrative, the more you have to ask—where is the money coming from, and where is it going?
I guess for this thing to really take off, Standard Chartered itself has to start paying salaries with it first.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？ #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $ZEC I really dare to hold these kinds of altcoins overnight 🤣 with peace of mind
Last night, I opened a $ONE short position in a light position. Honestly, I'm not worried at all right now.
The biggest issue with these coins isn't how much they drop in a day, but whether there's still a reason to keep speculating on them later.
$ONE The contract will be signed in a few days. What else can we do now? It's just a last struggle.
Looking at $BTC on the other hand, the logic is completely different.
On the U.S. side, the digital asset tax bill and strategic BTC reserve bills continue to advance, with policy expectations still fermenting. On September 16, relevant committees of the U.S. House of Representatives advanced the digital asset tax bill and the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill respectively.
With this policy narrative, funds are more likely to concentrate first in core assets like BTC and ETH.
So you will find:
BTC steadily climbed, and ETH also began to gain momentum.
In fact, the funds are already making choices.
Mainstream coins with policies, capital, and narratives are willing to be valued by the market; Counterfeit coins without sustained catalysts can only rely on short-term emotional waves.
So now I prefer to focus on $BTC and $ETH, rather than chasing those knockoff markets that are already nearing their end.
Mainstream coins are telling new stories, while weaker altcoins may already be telling the final page.
In trading, you must distinguish between strong and weak players. Don't assume that a fake is about to take off just because it suddenly pulls up.
Sometimes, that's not a reversal.
#DailyOrbit While the CLARITY Act remains stalled, other crypto-focused initiatives are still moving forward. 📌 A crypto tax framework cleared committee 38–5 📌 A Bitcoin reserve proposal advanced 28–21 📌 The reserve plan points toward a potential 20-year federal BTC strategy The bigger takeaway for me: Washington may not be building crypto regulation through one massive bill. Instead, the framework could be taking shape piece by piece — taxes, reserves, and market rules moving on different tracks. The heThe September rate hike landing does not mean that macro risks are completely eliminated. CME data shows the probability of another 25BP rate hike in October has risen to 55.4%, and the risk of a second rate hike has clearly intensified.
The underlying state of macro fragmentation
The current macro environment is very contradictory: energy prices, tariffs, and AI infrastructure continue to support inflation; meanwhile, employment and corporate profit data remain strong, the Federal Reserve's stance is wavering, and the tightening cycle has not been declared over.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, mortgage rates have risen to 7%, and the liquidity tightening caused by high interest rates is still fermenting. Interest-free risk assets will continue to bear opportunity cost pressure.
The essence of this round of crypto rebound
This round of market rise is more driven by the market's optimistic expectation that "September is the last rate hike," representing an emotional repair rally rather than large-scale entry of incremental funds.
The market appears resistant to decline, but it is not that the crypto market can ignore high interest rates; it is a false prosperity brought by trading expectations.
Once the October rate hike lands, the market will reprice the terminal rate, the expectation of a high interest rate cycle will rise again, and the crypto market will face severe volatility with significantly increased correction risk.
The second phase of the bull market does not mean a brainless one-way rise; latent macro risks can still erupt at any time.
Practical operation ideas
• BTC, ETH: Continue holding spot base positions, do not chase high-priced altcoins; small coins will experience greater pullbacks when the macro environment weakens.
• Contract side: Actively reduce leverage significantly and shrink positions; heavy positions in a high volatility environment are prone to instant liquidation.
$BTC $ETH
#FedOctoberRateHikeProbabilityExceeds55%
#WillLongTermUSTreasury5%BecomeNewNormal?$UP short position floating profit 397.07%, from 0.4994 to 0.3011.
The recent pump of the new coin is essentially a "peak at launch" distribution scheme.
UP crashing down from the high looks terrible, but in a larger timeframe, it is a value correction after peaking at listing. I opened a short at 0.4994 with a clear basis: continuous net outflow from the exchange, whales crazily distributing chips riding the launch hype.
Additionally, the risk appetite in the entire new coin sector is contracting, with funds hiding in BTC and stablecoins. High Beta new coins in this environment will fall harder than they rise. Failure to test resistance above is the best confirmation for shorting. Holding the position without moving, stop loss has been raised to the cost line, letting the trend play out on its own. $ZEC $SNDK 37500 枚 $ETH 多单、25 倍杠杆，加上 120 枚 $BTC 的 40 倍底仓，合计浮盈三百多万美元。
一个圈外人看到这组数字，第一反应大概是：这跟赌大小有什么区别？
区别在于，他一边止盈一边留底仓，不是全押也不是全撤。问题是，25 倍和 40 倍意味着一次不大的反向插针就能把底仓打掉，止盈落袋的部分救不了这部分仓位。
所以这到底是风控，还是把风控做成了另一种赌法？
我倾向于认为，这是用已经兑现的利润去换继续留在桌上的资格。能不能算稳健，得看下一次插针来的时候他跑不跑得掉。
观察点就放在这里：底仓还在不在。
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $ETH $BTC Some of you missed Litecoin in the $40s, but even in the $50s, the setup still looks compelling. The compression on the monthly RSI alongside the falling wedge is significant. If the monthly RSI breaks out, Litecoin could see a major move.
Since 2020, Litecoin has formed a triple bearish divergence, but I believe that pattern has now played out. The setup reminds me a lot of Zcash. With most people expecting Litecoin to underperform yet again, it feels like the market may be overlooking this oneSOL Market Analysis: ETF Volume Squeezes Shorts to a New High This Year, Institutional Allocation and Leverage Risks Coexist
On September 19, $SOL strongly broke through $112, rising about 12% in 24 hours, reaching the highest price since January this year. Its market capitalization rebounded to approximately $65.7 billion, ranking seventh in the entire market.
The short squeeze structure is extremely extreme. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the SOL network was $38.21 million, of which short liquidations reached $36.72 million, accounting for about 96%, while long liquidations were only $1.48 million. Futures open interest is approaching $7 billion.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook. SOL is currently trading near the high of $112, with the next resistance zone between $115–$120. The first support band is between $107–$110, and the $100 integer level is the lifeline that medium-term bulls must hold. The risk lies in the fact that the current price is entirely driven by leveraged funds. If the $107 support fails, it may trigger a chain liquidation of longs. With thin liquidity over the weekend, volatility is expected to be intense. Those with positions can raise stop losses and hold, while those without positions should avoid chasing above $112 and wait for a pullback to $107–$110 to confirm support before considering further action, which is more prudent. #全球高利率预期再升温 #BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 Helpless, really helpless.
Shorting keeps getting liquidated, damn it, I give up, this birth coin really can't be shorted!
Fine, I'll go long then, brothers, going long this time for sure, firmly becoming a bull.
No matter how much it falls or runs, I will firmly go long, no matter what!
You might scold me, $ZEC at 1560 and still dare to go long, isn't that courting death?
"Do you really think it will rise to 2000?"
But there's no way, it just won't fall, what can I do?
No matter what bad news, it doesn't fall; any good news and it rises.
Brothers, haven't you seen this situation clearly yet?
Look at the trend, from 1040 straight up to 1590, EMA5, EMA10, EMA20 all diverging upwards, textbook bullish alignment.
Every time it slightly pulls back, it's immediately supported by a swarm of buyers, it simply can't be smashed down!
Look at the long-short ratio, the shorts are really squeezed out now!
Retail investors keep shorting one after another, does the dog whale lack fuel?
No! So many shorts lined up to be slaughtered are the dog whale's unlimited ammunition for pumping!
So I decisively reversed to long at 1565.
As long as it doesn't break below 1428, I'll hold to the death!
Someone with millions in debt and so many failed startups fears nothing but endurance!
I used to shout about rate hikes and bad news every day, shorting daily, only to be slapped in the face by the dog whale every day.
Now I completely understand, in this market, never go against the trend.
Since it wants to rise, I'll go with the flow and join the dog whale in feasting on the shorts' flesh!
$BTC
$ETH
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% In a nutshell: All negative factors have been exhausted + short squeeze, market sentiment has rebounded from "neutral" to the "greed" zone.
The total crypto market cap is about $2.67 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index jumped from 56 to 65. Approximately $201 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $147 million — over 110,000 people globally were forcibly liquidated, a typical short squeeze scenario.
🟠 BTC | Testing the upper edge of the resistance zone, initial overbought signals appear
**Current price around 81,400, back above $80,000 for the first time since September 7.
Key levels:
· Immediate resistance: 82,300 (September high)
· Support: EMA50 at 77,700 closely overlaps, forming a mid-term defense band
Core contradictions:
· Fidelity's FBTC recorded $310.7 million ETF inflow in a single day, signaling a warming capital flow
· MACD golden cross reading at 949 confirms trend momentum; however, RSI at 77.1 has entered the overbought zone, with technical correction pressure on the 4-hour timeframe
· On-chain data shows short-term BTC supply dropped from about 6 million to 3 million coins, while long-term holders increased from 13 million to 16 million, indicating a shift in holding structure toward long-term
Midday view: The $80,000–$82,000 range is one of the densest resistance bands in crypto history. Whether the price can turn this "ceiling into a floor" depends on continuous ETF inflows. Given the current overbought condition, chasing highs is not cost-effective; the effectiveness of support near EMA50 (~77,700) on pullbacks deserves more attention.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% Every time Dogecoin moves up a bit, it owes thanks to two groups: those who sold at the bottom and those who shorted all the way.
On the day of the drop, someone stared at the screen for three hours, finger hovering over the sell button, then closed their eyes and hit confirm.
The chips they handed over didn’t disappear; they just changed hands.
The next day, when the price recovered, they deleted their chat history and never spoke in the group again.
The shorts are even more dedicated.
They place orders late at night, set stop losses, write long posts arguing that Dogecoin is worthless, with solid data and logical reasoning.
When the price steps up, they close a position; when it steps up again, they close another.
Every liquidation order is a step up in price, laid down by their own hands.
Dogecoin whales don’t do charity.
The market needs counterparties, needs someone to hand over chips at the bottom, needs shorts to fuel the bulls.
If no one sells at a loss, who will take over?
If no one shorts, what will ignite the rally?
So there’s no need to persuade or argue.
If you need to run, run; if you need to short, short. This is your contribution to $DOGE.
I’ll handle the dirty, exhausting work of going long.
If one day you want to come back, the chips are still there, but the price won’t be the same.#US Crypto Tax and BTC Reserve Act Advances
$SOL surged to 113, can it hold above 110?
Today SOL peaked at 114.29, rising nearly 11%, hitting a new high since January. How did it get there?
I checked the data: in the past 24 hours, $SOL short liquidations totaled $36.72 million, while long liquidations were only $1.48 million; 96% of liquidations were shorts getting hit. Even more telling, futures trading volume was 12.1 billion, spot only 1.49 billion — this 8x gap shows the rise was driven by futures leverage, not real spot buying.
But $SOL does have real fundamentals this time. Bitwise’s staking ETF BSOL had a single-day volume of 85 million, the Solana Foundation onboarded Allfunds managing €1.9 trillion, and on-chain RWA scale broke 4 billion. These are solid, not just hype.
I glanced at open interest: price rose but OI dropped 5%, indicating many traders closed positions during the rally, not new longs entering. The 110-112 range was a local high from late August to early September and a dense liquidation zone. For bulls to break through, spot volume must truly catch up.
My view: it can temporarily hold above 110, but how long depends on two things — how many shorts remain unliquidated, and whether new capital is willing to enter and take over at this level. Many people see a positive funding rate and assume "longs are paying fees, so longs are strong," then follow the trend to go long — this is a typical misconception. The funding rate reflects the cost of holding positions, not the direction itself. The higher the rate, the more crowded the position, and the stronger the motivation for a stop-run spike.
Back to $REZ, current price 0.003772, down 7.39% in 24h, trading volume 78.7M USDT, indicating a volume-driven sell-off. On the moving average structure, MA5=0.0038486 has crossed below MA20=0.0038833, showing short-term moving averages turning bearish; RSI=39.5, not yet in oversold territory, indicating there is still room below; MACD histogram is -1.474e-05, bearish momentum continues. The key is that the funding rate is still +0.0050%, price is falling but the rate remains positive, meaning longs continue to hold and pay fees while losing money — a typical "longs won't die" structure, and these chips are most vulnerable to a stop-run spike. The lower Bollinger Band at 0.00379044 is being approached by the current price, with 30 K-line amplitude around 11.16%, under a background of increased volatility, the probability of a false breakout is high. The Fear and Greed Index is 71, the overall market is still in the greed zone, but funds are clearly withdrawing from weak coins, siding with the bears.
My directional bias is bearish. #BTC returns to $80,000, capital conditions show signs of recovery
BTC market cap surpasses Tesla, but an even stronger signal is hidden in MicroStrategy's “playing dead”
Bitcoin's market cap just surged to 1.63 trillion, crushing Tesla's 1.438 trillion beneath it, reclaiming a spot in the global top 15 assets. Many say this is ironclad proof that Wall Street institutions are abandoning tech stocks for digital assets. But if you really believe that, you're too naive.
Look at MicroStrategy (MSTR). This entity holds 845,000 BTC at an average price of 75,000, and now BTC's price far exceeds the cost basis. Logically, it should be skyrocketing, right? But recently, it’s actually outpacing BTC — MSTR surged 16% in one day, while BTC only rose 5% in the same period. This doesn't mean institutions favor MSTR more; rather, MSTR, this “Bitcoin leveraged shell,” is being short squeezed, with shorts stampeding and pushing the price up.
What’s truly interesting is another detail: MicroStrategy suddenly stopped buying coins recently. It's not that they don't want to buy; they’re using cash to repurchase preferred shares and repair the balance sheet. A company that claims to “never sell Bitcoin” is now prioritizing preserving its shell rather than adding to its position. What does this indicate? It believes that continuing to go all-in at the current price isn’t as cost-effective as stabilizing its capital structure first. $POPCAT short position floating profit 478.92%, opened at 0.06381, current price 0.04853.
The recent pulse rebound of MEME coin is essentially a pump-and-dump scheme by speculative funds to lure buyers.
POPCAT's short-term violent surge looks full of opportunities, but from a larger timeframe perspective, it is just a technical rebound within a downtrend. I opened a short at 0.06381 with a clear logic: during the rebound phase, the net inflow on exchanges keeps rising, and whales are continuously distributing chips to retail investors chasing highs amid high sentiment.
Additionally, the overall altcoin sector's risk appetite continues to decline, with funds flowing steadily into Bitcoin and stablecoins. MEME's POPCAT lacks fundamental support and is extremely volatile; once the hype fades, the downward momentum will far exceed the upward. Multiple failed tests of resistance above are the clearest confirmation signal for shorting. I continue to hold the position, with the stop loss moved up to the cost line, leaving the trend to play out. $UNI $ZEC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% The real strength of Bitcoin isn't that it rose 5% today,
but that it didn't fall despite negative news.
The Fed's rate hikes, setbacks to the CLARITY Act,
high US Treasury yields—all create a headwind for risk assets.
Yet Bitcoin has reclaimed the 80,000 level.
The fact that it doesn't drop when bad news hits is a signal in itself.
The key now isn't whether it will keep rising,
but whether breaking through 80,000 can shift from emotional recovery to a sustained trend.
Only with strong volume and a stable hold can it be truly strong.
A spike followed by a drop is a false breakout.
Don't get dazzled by single-day gains.
Before the trend is established, everything can still reverse.
Do you think it can hold above 80,000 this time? ZEC Market Analysis: Privacy Narrative and Leverage Short Squeeze Resonance, Short-term Overbought Risk Accumulation
$ZEC continues its crazy rally. On September 19, ZEC once broke through $1,580, setting a new all-time high, then retreated to around $1,559, with a 24-hour increase of over 7%, and market capitalization rose to about $26.6 billion. It has risen 34% in the past 7 days, 183% in the past 30 days, and over 3,000% in one year. From $51 a year ago to above $1,500 now, ZEC has achieved about a 25-fold increase in 12 months, with its market cap ranking among the top nine in the entire market.
Three forces resonate to drive this round of market movement:
First, Grayscale spot ETF;
Second, NU7 governance vote passed, with 96.5% of voters choosing to retain the halving mechanism;
Third, short squeeze forming positive feedback.
Technical and future market judgment: The 4-hour moving averages show a bullish alignment, with the immediate breakout zone at $1,525–$1,530. If it holds effectively, the next extended target is around $1,600. But caution is needed: ZEC futures open interest reaches about $3.1 billion, far exceeding spot trading volume. High leverage participation means that once support breaks, it may trigger a chain liquidation. #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% #BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 The Clarity Act failed in the Senate, which is actually a positive.
The logic is—once the legislative uncertainty hanging over us lands as a "failure," it's better than dragging it out; the market fears unresolved issues the most.
Now that the negative news is fully out, the narrative shifts from "regulation is coming" back to "run it yourself on-chain," and funds actually breathe a sigh of relief.
This is the reason for the recent surge in prices over the past few days.
If later ETF inflows and interest rate cut expectations keep up, it could really lead to significant volume.🤔Withdrawal records reveal more about what a person is doing than position screenshots. Starting with just over 300u and withdrawing more than 700u, this set of actions itself is reducing risk exposure.
But at the same time, he is still accumulating $ZEC and $BCH, reasoning that the more shorts there are, the stronger the rally. This claim only holds short-term for coins with thin liquidity; it describes a short squeeze, not value. The truly passive party is not the short sellers, but those who enter the market after seeing the withdrawal records.
A more likely explanation is that he separates realized profits from open position risks in his accounting, psychologically allowing him to continue adding to his positions. One piece of evidence still missing from this chain: whether he reduced positions during pullbacks.
The blunt truth is, monitoring his withdrawal frequency is more useful than watching what he buys. Once withdrawals stop and positions actually increase, the previous judgment should be overturned.
#ZEC逼近1600美元，多空博弈升温
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复 #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $ZEC $BCH BSC Chinese meme, recently divided into several tiers within the community. Spot tier: Among 4meme, the true representatives on spot are $币安人生; the butterfly series includes $MarsCoin and $牛来 as spot names. Contract tier: $龙虾 is highly controlled, with market cap once surpassing the spot Mars and 牛来—some believe that with deep control by the whales, there may be no need to go spot. $哈基米 just launched on contracts, currently in a slow decline washout; $踏马 has been washing contracts for about half a year, and some speculate: will it get a spot listing to pair with $币安人生, "to keep things balanced." Alpha tier: $flork and $4stock are clearly in a slow decline, likely to continue washing; the quasi-alpha $果蝇 is even harder to predict. Including RH chain targets makes the structure more complex—but most judgments are: Binance is unlikely to give RH much space in the short term, just a token gesture is enough. The launchpad battle is also simultaneously upgrading. Some KOLs have observed: when genius launches, brew pulls back—the competition for platforms is getting fiercer. On the RH side: Pons series ($PONS, $ZZZ, $CME, etc.) cover hundreds of millions, tens of millions, and millions; LONG series ($AI, $MEME, $BONER, $SPACEHOOD, etc.) also have a wide coverage. On the BSC side: 4meme from $币安人生, $龙虾, $哈基米, $踏马 to $4STOCK, almost allJust checked the ETF data, damn, the money really came back. Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 433 million, with Fidelity alone contributing 311 million. The Ethereum ETF also saw an inflow of 144 million, with BlackRock accounting for 114 million. A few days ago, everyone was complaining about the rebound lacking volume, but now real money is pouring into ETFs, so at least this wave of buying is genuine.
But one day doesn't count; we need to see if the inflows continue. Anyway, I'm still bullish for now, but I won't blindly chase the highs just because funds are coming in.
For Bitcoin, at the current level around 81,000, I'll wait for a pullback to 80,500–80,800. If it holds there, I'll look for an opportunity to add longs; if it breaks below 80,000, I'll step back—no stubbornness. The first resistance to watch is 81,750; if it holds above that, then look at 82,000 to 82,500. If 81,000 can't hold repeatedly, I definitely won't bet on a quick second leg up.
For Ethereum, around 2,623, I want to wait for a pullback to 2,600–2,610 before adding, with a stop loss below 2,580. If it retakes 2,646, then I'll look at 2,680 and 2,700. If it can't hold 2,600, I'd rather wait for it to stabilize again than catch a falling knife halfway.
The ETF inflows give me confidence to stay bullish, but I need to be picky about entry prices. BTC wait for 80,500, ETH wait for 2,600. No pullback? Then I won't get on board; missing out is better than catching a falling knife.SKHYNIX's 1357 spike today surged up, surpassing the 1317 wave.
Yesterday's low was 1262, the high touched 1317, closing at 1316. Today opened around 1315, with a high of 1357, a low of 1312, and the current price about 1350. There is follow-through buying in this upward segment.
Resistance lies between 1357 and 1387, with further resistance from 1409 to 1438. If the 1312 support breaks, it’s likely to test 1262 first; if that support also fails, the short term may move lower to find space.
In the short term, watch if the current price can hold around 1350. If it can’t hold, treat it as a pullback after a rally and avoid chasing at this price. For those already holding, watch if the 1312 low today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy the dip, wait for a pullback and reconsider if it can break past 1357; don’t catch a falling knife in midair. $SKHYNIX SPCX made a quick spike to 154.8 today, but no one dared to follow the wave up to 156.9.
Yesterday, the low was 149.9, the high reached 156.6, and it closed at 152.7. Today it opened around 152, peaked at 154.8 but didn’t break through, the low was 147.5, and the current price is about 150.1. Volume is still there, but fewer people are following this upward move.
There is still resistance between 154.8 and 156.9, and above that is the high point at 225.6. If it breaks below 147.5, it’s likely to test 144.4 first; if that level doesn’t hold either, the short-term trend will look for lower space.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 150.1 can hold. If it can’t, consider it as still digesting the drop from 156.9 and don’t chase at this price. Those already holding should watch if the low of 147.5 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and see if it can break through 154.8 before considering entry—don’t catch a falling knife mid-air. $SPCX Four bullets have been fired—rate hikes, bill vetoes, oil price surges, Middle East conflicts.
BTC isn't dead; it even stood back up. 75K→81K, an 8% jump in two days.
Coinbase CEO said: "Can't rely on Congress, so we'll go through SEC and CFTC." Morgan Chase said: "BTC short positions are heavier than gold; once it reverses, the rebound will be stronger."
Exhausting the bad news isn't good news.
Not falling after bad news is the real signal.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% $ETH $BTC $BTC BTC has already surpassed 80,000, and many people have started to not understand the market trend anymore.
The Federal Reserve's rate hike has been implemented, with a hawkish tone in the speech, while still leaving room for future rate hikes.
According to normal logic:
Bearish for risk assets, the crypto market should be under pressure and decline.
But the market's answer is completely different:
BTC not only did not fall, but steadily stood above 80,000. The more bearish the news, the stronger it gets.
Why?
1️⃣ The market trades expectations, not results
This 25BP rate hike had long been priced in by the market, so when it actually happened, it turned into "bad news fully priced in."
The market often shows:
Bad news arrives → funds start to buy back
Good news realized → some funds choose to take profits
2️⃣ The market is starting to trade the end of the tightening cycle
Although Powell's speech was hawkish, the market's focus is no longer on this rate hike, but on the future policy direction.
If tightening is gradually nearing its end, funds will naturally start trading on future easing expectations in advance.
3️⃣ ETF funds are changing the market structure
The current BTC market is no longer driven solely by retail sentiment.
Spot ETFs and institutional funds continuously participate, giving the market more support during pullbacks.
So every dip is seen by some as an opportunity to reposition.
4️⃣ What really deserves attention: bad news arrives but price does not fall
After the biggest bearish news landed, BTC did not break key levels; instead, it broke through 80,000.
📌 The real question for the future market is:
Is it still a phase of distribution after the rally? $ETH $ZEC A whale movement has appeared!
A whale address transferred out as much as $362 million worth of ZEC, recharging an exchange for the first time in a full 10 months.
Although this time only $15 million worth of chips were initially moved, accounting for less than 5%, seemingly just a small test.
But the signal significance should be warned! Once a dormant whale account that has been inactive for ten months starts moving tokens to an exchange, it is a risk warning!BTC has reclaimed 81,000, and the "anchor" for this rebound is not on the K-line
BTC is currently trading near 81,100, up over 5% in 24 hours. Starting from the low of 76,500, this rebound has pulled nearly 6,000 USD.
The core driver of this rebound is not technical indicators but position structure. On-chain whale Garrett Jin opened a long position of 1,330 BTC at 78,057 USD, worth 107 million USD, and it was built up concentratedly within 4 hours through Hyperliquid. The key point is: about 96% of the current net long nominal value is established below the current price, with extremely thin selling pressure above.
Glassnode also confirmed — BTC has reclaimed the "real market average price" of 76,660 USD, which, together with the corporate treasury average holding cost of 80,500 USD, forms a clear cost anchor range.
My view: 82,000 is the next strong resistance. Rekt Capital has already warned that failure to break above may form a secondary resistance pattern similar to May. ETF inflows of 433 million in one day is good, but one day's data does not tell the whole story. If it were me, I wouldn’t chase at this level; I’d wait for the whale position at 78,057 to be retested once to see if it holds before deciding on any action. That price level is the real trump card for this rally.
For reference only, not investment advice.
$BTC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% $OKB, as mentioned last night, failed to break through the heavy concentration zone at 118, likely due to too many taking profits, so it couldn't push higher.
Yesterday's trading volume surged 60% to 36.6 million USD, with the previously thin order book partially realized into elasticity, just shy of breaking 118.
Next, the sector comparison should reverse: $BNB also rose 4% on the same day, and platform coins as a whole have entered the rotation list, with OKB no longer lagging behind.
Especially since the EEA regional fee structure adjustment took effect on the 25th, which is a small positive for okx's platform revenue.
Since it didn't break 118 last night, don't rush to chase it; wait for it to volume up and stabilize above 118. According to $BTC's long-term cycle theory, there's a high probability of a pullback in October, so wait to enter then.806的空单刚被扫，手机还在震，心里那一下真的有点闷。 你也有过这种"明知道该等回踩，结果车直接开走"的瞬间吗？ 其实这波节奏挺典型的。美盘一开，连续几根放量阳线直接把价格往上拽，白天780附近的空头先吃亏，760到750这个区间没被跌破，原本等回调接多的人也没等到上车点。我后来在804补空、812再加，均价大概808，现在就是拿着看，赌这个位置有抛压。不是嘴硬，是我真的觉得上方没那么轻松。 但把情绪拿掉，市场在交易什么？更像是衍生品主导的挤压行情。价格快速抬升时，空头被迫回补，资金费率如果跟着转正甚至偏高，说明多头也开始付钱持仓，这种结构短期容易继续冲，可一旦新增买盘接不上，反向波动也会很凶。BTC和ETH带着走的时候，山寨往往跟涨但持续性差，板块强弱会变得很关键。 现在能看到的信号是： - 放量阳线集中出现，说明有真实买盘，不只是现货慢慢推。 - 760到750没破，短线结构仍偏多，回调被快速吃掉。 - 804到812区域开始有人加空，说明分歧在放大。 - 资金费率、持仓量如果同步走高，挤压风险就在累积。 偏多的路径是：美盘延续强势，空头继续被挤，BTC先冲前高，ETH和强势山寨跟Brothers, this rate hike was implemented, the CLARITY Act didn't pass, yet the Bitcoin dollar scrambled from 77,000 to 81,000. Many people don't understand and think the market has gone crazy. Old Mo tells you, it's not the market that's crazy, it's that you haven't looked back at history. For the first rate hike in history, risk assets have been hit hard in the short term, but how to move in the medium term depends on the pace. Since 1972, the S&P 500 has fallen about 4% on average within six weeks after the first rate hike. Within a year after the first rate hike, the average maximum drawdown can reach 14%. But the mid-term divergence is huge: in 2004-2006, the pace slowed down, but the S&P 500 actually rose 11.4% during the entire rate hike cycle; From 2015 to 2018, slow rate hikes, the Nasdaq surged 28% in 2017; In 2022, with four consecutive 75 basis point hikes, the S&P was pushed into a bear market, and Bitcoin fell 65% for the year. So the key isn't "whether to raise rates," but "the faster the increase, the more fierce." Let's look at Pie's own history. From 2015 to 2017, the Fed only raised 25 basis points each time, at a very slow pace. As soon as Bitcoin emerged from the deep bear zone, its chip structure reset, and its price climbed from $454 all the way to $16,515. What about 2022? The Fed started with a 75 basis point smash, causing Bitcoin to fall from 41,000 to 15,800, halving again and again for the year. Which round does this look like? Old Mo will tell you, it's like 2015. First, the pace of rate hikes is moderate. This time only 25 basis points were added; the dot plot shows there may be another 25 basis points each time within the year. This is the "pre-order."BTC Investment Log Issue 9 | September 19, 2026 Weekly Report — Key Point: Bottom Zone and Cycle Position Analysis Statistics Date: September 19, 2026 BTC Current Price: Approximately $81,250 2025 All-Time High: About $126,198 From All-Time High: About -35.6% Binance BTC Real-Time Price ⸻ I. Key Conclusions This Week ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ The most important change this week is not how much BTC has risen, but that "the bottom area is gradually being validated." BTC has rebounded from a stage low of about $64,725 on August 18 to about $81,250, a rebound of about 25.5%. Meanwhile, AHR999 dropped to 0.3552 on August 18, entering the historical "bottom-fishing zone," remaining at 0.4075 on August 19, then returning to the dollar-cost averaging zone. This means that the $65,000~$70,000 range in mid-August already has clear bottom characteristics. But it is not yet possible to simply declare "the bear market is over and the bull market is restarting." Because currently: * BTC has clearly moved out of the lowest valuation zone; * AHR999 has left the "cheap zone" below 0.45; * MVRV is around 1.48, which is a low level in historical cycles but not an extreme bottom; * SOPR around 1.00, indicating the market is close to breakeven; * The fear and greed index has returnedNo wonder BTC has been stuck around 81000 for a long time, several attempts to push higher failed to hold effectively. It turns out there are still large amounts of BTC being sent on-chain to exchanges.
A wallet suspected to be related to BIT (formerly Matrixport), bc1qsz...r2g, has deposited another 1000 BTC to Binance, which at the current price is worth about 81.06 million USD.
The timing is very delicate. BTC just surged from 76000 to 80000, market sentiment is hot, but it struggles to break through 81000. Now seeing multi-million-dollar BTC transfers to Binance naturally raises suspicion that someone might be preparing to sell on this rebound.
Of course, deposits don’t equal sales, and the wallet attribution is only suspected, so we can’t put all the pressure at 81000 on this transfer alone. But at times like this, I definitely wouldn’t blindly chase longs.
Next, we’ll see if 81000 can hold again. If it goes up and continues pushing towards 81750–82000, it means buyers are still supporting; if it repeatedly spikes and falls back, failing to hold even 80500, then watch out for a pullback to 80000.
On one side, retail investors are eyeing a breakout, on the other, large wallets are moving coins to exchanges. The 81000 hurdle looks like it will take a bit more time to overcome.🟠 BTC | Testing the upper edge of the resistance zone, initial overbought signal appears
**Current price around 81,400, first time back above 80,000 since September 7.
Key levels:
· Immediate resistance: 82,300 (September high)
· Support: EMA50 at 77,700 closely overlaps, forming a mid-term defense zone
Core contradictions:
· Fidelity FBTC recorded $310.7 million ETF inflow in a single day, signaling a warming of capital
· MACD golden cross reading 949 confirms trend momentum; but RSI reading 77.1 has entered the overbought zone, 4-hour level shows technical correction pressure
· On-chain data shows short-term holders’ BTC supply dropped from about 6 million to 3 million, long-term holders increased from 13 million to 16 million, indicating a shift in holding structure towards long-term
Midday view: The 80,000~82,000 range is one of the densest resistance bands in crypto history. Whether the price can turn the “ceiling into a floor” depends on whether ETF funds can continue to flow in. Given the current overbought state, chasing highs is not cost-effective; the effectiveness of support near EMA50 (~77,700) on pullbacks is more worth watching.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#SEC代币化股票创新豁免落地，UNI盘中涨超21% #美联储10月再加息概率破55%，这一波行情会受什么影响？
最近市场出现一个矛盾现象：一边是美联储10月再加息概率升至55%以上，高利率压力重新升温；另一边BTC却重新站回8万美元附近，资金面开始修复。
这说明市场正在交易一个新的逻辑：加息本身不是最大问题，关键是市场是否已经提前消化。
如果10月真的再次加息，短期影响主要有三个方面：
第一，美元流动性继续收紧。高利率会提高资金成本，对高风险资产形成压力，尤其是高杠杆山寨币。
第二，美债收益率可能继续走高。如果10年期美债维持5%左右，高估值资产会面临重新定价。
第三，市场波动会加大。资金可能从弱基本面山寨币回流BTC、ETH等流动性更强的资产。
但这几天行情也释放了一个信号：BTC在监管利空、加息预期升温的情况下没有持续下跌，反而快速反弹，说明市场承接能力比预期强。
个人判断：这一轮行情短期最大的风险不是“加息一次”，而是市场重新提高对未来持续紧缩的预期。如果10月加息被充分定价，反而可能出现利空落地后的修复行情。
接下来重点看三个位置：
第一，BTC能否稳住8万美元；
第二，美债收益率是否继续突破高位；
第三，资金是否从BTC扩散到If you believe in Bitcoin, you should buy more $MSTR during a bull market. The main reasons are as follows:
1. Leverage without liquidation risk; the company has already taken on the liquidation risk and controls it, as long as the company's cash reserves are sufficient to pay interest and dividends.
2. Endogenous growth of BTC Yield per share; as long as the company can continuously issue new shares or preferred shares to buy Bitcoin at a price higher than net asset value, the number of BTC represented per share will keep increasing.
3. Most importantly, the market has just experienced a severe shakeout or panic sell-off, causing the premium rate to compress significantly or even approach a discount (negative premium), which is often seen as a rare "discounted entry point."
Of course, if the market unfortunately enters a deep bear phase or the coin price remains sideways for a long time, the decline can be severe.
Accumulating gradually during market panic and premium contraction aligns with its characteristics, but the premise is that the position size must be able to withstand valuation cycles.$BTC just got buried after a 100x short, many people are completely confused about the market
The Fed's rate hike is confirmed, the speech is hawkish, and there is room for further hikes.
Logically: this is bad news for risk assets, the crypto market should crash.
But in reality: BTC directly holds above 80,000, the more bad news, the stronger it gets.
Just now, I stubbornly opened a 100x leverage short, trying to bet against this "logic."
The result was a sharp spike up; although I didn't get liquidated, my stop loss was hit painfully, resulting in heavy losses.
Many are puzzled, why doesn't it drop on bad news? I'll explain the real logic I learned from losing money just now:
1. The market trades on expectations, not the present
This rate hike was fully priced in by the market.
Everyone already knew a 25BP hike was coming.
The bad news was already priced in, so the actual event means the bad news is over.
Capital markets always:
Bad news landing = funds dare to enter
Good news landing = funds will exit
2. The core now: the rate hike cycle is nearing its end
Although the speech was hawkish, the market understands one thing:
This tightening round is about to end.
The crypto market doesn't trade current rates.
It trades future easing expectations.
Funds are positioning early for a rate cut scenario, hence the counter-trend rally.
Lesson from 100x leverage: don't bet on volatility within a trend
In this big picture, opening a 100x counter-trend short, even if the direction is briefly right, a normal pullback can wipe you out.
I just paid this tuition fee; I hope everyone can understand the logic behind it and stop throwing money against the trend.
#BTC重返8万美元，资金面出现修复