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I've decided: no more short selling, only focus on going long.
I used to want to do both long and short, thinking I could make double the profit from one market move. But in the end, I realized this was just a greedy illusion. When trying to think about both long and short strategies simultaneously, my mind has to distinguish between two levels and two turning points at once. When the market moves quickly, it's impossible to keep up, and my thinking easily gets confused.
The reason I was able to consistently profit before was because I had a thorough understanding of bullish markets. When focusing on the long side, I only needed to calmly observe the larger timeframes, look for bottom entry points, identify bottoming structures, and wait for major buying opportunities at large-scale bottoms. All my thinking was concentrated on one thing, so my level judgments were naturally accurate, and my execution efficiency and win rate were high.
Once I added short selling, everything changed.
My mind was searching for bottom entry points to go long while also watching for high-level shorting turning points. Two sets of cycles and two sets of emotional nodes intertwined, making it easy to mistake minor small-level or end-of-trend ripples for big opportunities to act. Short selling itself is not my strength; when faced with violent reverse rallies, my mindset easily loses control, I hesitate to cut losses, and a single trade can wipe out the profits accumulated from the previous ten trades.
By only keeping long positions, my thinking becomes simpler and purer. I don't have to be distracted by studying high-level turning points, only focusing on one thing: distinguishing cycle levels and waiting for major bottom buy signals. I don't have to switch back and forth between long and short mindsets, and I won't be disturbed by the market's back-and-forth fluctuations, so my judgments become more focused. How to emerge from a major bull market in a rising interest rate environment? BTC has been fluctuating around 80,000 for a full three weeks
Many people have a fixed perception: rising interest rates = bear market for crypto, lowering interest rates = major bull market.
But history tells us that interest rates and market trends are not simply unidirectionally linked. Even during a rate hike cycle, significant rallies can occur, with two fundamental conditions at the core.
BTC has been consolidating around the 80,000 mark for three weeks, essentially reflecting the market repeatedly testing whether these conditions can be fulfilled in a high interest rate environment.
1. The rate hike expectation is fully priced in advance
If the market predicted this rate hike early and prices dropped in advance, then when the Federal Reserve officially raises rates, the negative impact is already absorbed.
The market downturn is not caused by the rate hike itself, but by hawkish statements that exceed market expectations.
If this rate hike is the 25 basis points the market already anticipated, with no additional increases, then after the event, capital inflows are more likely.
The current three-week consolidation is the market digesting rate hike risks and embedding expectations into prices ahead of time.
2. Independent incremental capital to hedge the cash-draining effect of high interest rates
High interest rates increase the cost of holding capital, but if independent long-term funds continue to enter, they can push the market up against the trend.
For BTC, this corresponds to continuous net inflows into spot ETFs.
Interest rates determine the opportunity cost of capital; ETFs determine whether new off-exchange funds enter the market.
As long as institutional allocation funds keep flowing in, even if interest rates remain high, they can absorb selling pressure from holders above and push prices higher. Conversely, if ETFs continue to see net outflows, no matter how good the narrative, a major bull market is hard to sustain.$ZEC brothers, many people see that short positions on ZEC account for 80% and think it will drop, but they got it wrong!
When shorts cluster, it’s actually easier to trigger a short squeeze. Many short positions have stop losses; once the price pulls up, shorts closing their positions become buy orders, which will push the market further up.
Only if the market directly falls and longs get liquidated will the price crash.
Currently, the funding rate is negative, so shorts have to keep paying funding fees, making the cost of holding positions increasingly high.
Position data can only be used as a reference; contract trading carries significant risk.There are three coins in the market right now, each with completely different sentiment:
BTC: around $76K
XRP: around $1.30
ZEC: around $1,370
BTC is waiting for direction, XRP is waiting for funds.
ZEC has already started to steal the spotlight.
ZEC has risen over 2,300% in the past year, with a 24H trading volume of about $2.6 billion. (BIT)
At this moment, what’s most worth watching isn’t whether to chase or not.
Instead, it’s:
Can ZEC hold $1,350?
Will it continue to increase volume after breaking through $1,400?
Can XRP reclaim $1.40?
If ZEC remains strong and XRP also starts to increase volume, it indicates that funds are beginning to flow from BTC to high-volatility coins.
But if BTC falls below $75K, this altcoin strength can easily become the last wave of sentiment.
BTC watches direction, XRP watches funds, ZEC watches sentiment. $ZEC While $ZEC hit an all-time high, the expected doubts were not absent—F2Pool's founder directly named names: 20% of the block rewards from the first four years went straight into the pockets of the founding team and early investors, consuming 10% of the total supply. This is not a "fair issuance" story; it's the real money buying from ETF, hardware wallet partnerships, and short squeeze that forcibly covered up the narrative's flaws.
$ZEN's 11% rise is not its own market movement; it's a tailwind ride following the privacy coin sector being lifted by ZEC, with no independent catalyst. A fast rise could also mean an equally fast fall.
If privacy is truly Zcash's moat, why is shielded address still not the default option, and why do most assets remain on transparent addresses?
#ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注 $ONE is screwed, the more you walk by the river, the more likely your shoes get wet.
A few days ago, I shorted $IOST and $ZIL and got results, then today I saw ONE surge sharply and decisively shorted it again.
Unexpectedly, I got trapped immediately. Normally, I wouldn’t be this scared, but at 4 PM tomorrow, the ONE contract trading pair will be delisted.
If it’s still at a floating loss by then, it will be automatically liquidated. I originally planned to do a short-term short and close it before going to bed. Now I feel like I’ve been targeted by a manipulative whale; the whale probably intends to hang all the shorts and wait for the automatic liquidation tomorrow.
If that’s really the case, it’s painful—there’s nothing to do but watch the position lose and get liquidated.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ There are two coins to watch tonight that I think are worth keeping an eye on:
XRP + CORE
XRP is currently around $1.30. After being hit by the CLARITY Act earlier, ETF funds are still flowing in.
CORE is even more interesting:
Current price is about $0.0185, 24H +2.5%, 24H trading volume about $3.1M.
But it just experienced validator reward anomalies a few days ago, and even saw exchanges restrict CORE transfers.
Now the price is actually starting to recover from around $0.0175.
So I will watch:
XRP: $1.30 → $1.40
CORE: $0.018 → $0.020
If both positions can break out with volume, it indicates the market is starting to look for high-elasticity targets again.
But if BTC falls below $75K, rebounds in both coins should be approached cautiously.
BTC decides the direction, XRP reflects sentiment, CORE reflects elasticity. $LSK current price is 0.4844, with the first resistance above at 0.5282 (MA20), and support below at 0.3783 (Bollinger lower band). The key pivot point between bulls and bears is at 0.4879 (MA5). These three price levels determine the direction of short-term trading.
First, let's see where the funds are positioning. LSK has plunged 23.49% in 24h, with a trading volume of 65.9M USDT, indicating a high-volume sell-off. The moving average MA5=0.48786 has fallen below MA20=0.52823, the MACD histogram is -0.006003 maintaining a bearish stance, and RSI=42.9 has not yet entered the oversold zone, indicating that selling pressure has not been fully released. But the key signal lies in the funding rate: -0.4527%, which is a deep negative value, meaning shorts are paying longs. Such an extreme negative funding rate often appears at the end of panic selling, with overcrowded shorts; once the price stabilizes, it is prone to trigger a short squeeze rebound, meaning the risk of a spike upwards is accumulating. The Bollinger Bands [0.378258, 0.678202] are extremely wide, with a 30-candle amplitude of 86.91%, volatility has reached an extreme level, making chasing shorts very low in cost-effectiveness.
My judgment is a short-term bullish rebound, based on the triple resonance of negative funding rate + support at the Bollinger lower band + RSI near the oversold zone, but this is a counter-trend rebound rather than a trend reversal, so it is not advisable to hold positions below MA20.This article answers the questions from the previous post and provides a brief categorization. Follow-up market views - The market started falling at the end of September last year, and now at this point, a year has already passed. From the chart and time perspective, the market is still relatively low, so it is unlikely that large short positions will be placed on mainstream coins in the future. Waiting for opportunities to gradually increase is better if not found. - Looking back at the market over the past few years, there are always three or four smooth trend waves each year. If you can fully absorb one or two rallies a year and control drawdowns, that would be great. This is my goal: patiently waiting for the next opportunity - controlling drawdowns. Three points I can think of and strive for: 1. Reduce leverage, or even no leverage at all. 2. Use isolated margins, including self-loss. 3. Reduce trading frequency - how small funds are made, how to control positions, how to manage funds. When funds are small, you have to wait for trend markets; fluctuating markets don't make big money. Leverage is definitely necessary. When I started doing it, I used 5-10x cross-margin leverage. Since you have leverage, you also need to keep stopping losses and keep trying and making mistakes. The downside of this approach is obvious: if you keep trying to stop losses and the trend doesn't come in, then you have no choice but to quit. You have to do your best and leave the rest to fate. The best way to manage funds is to segregate funds, open isolated margin orders, don't put all your money into trading accounts, operate multiple accounts/exchanges, withdraw on time - fees and open trades yourselfToday's market really gave short positions a lesson.
In the early morning, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, passing unanimously. I was thinking that after all the bad news, the market should drop a bit, but instead, the market reversed with a broad rally—$BTC directly pulled back above 76000, $ETH also stood back above 2400, the whole market acting like it was on some collective high.
Only after reviewing the market did I understand why bad news didn't cause a drop but a rise: First, the rate hike was already priced in by the market, with expectations over 90% before the meeting, so the actual announcement became a "removal of uncertainty" which was positive; second, although the dot plot said there would be another hike this year, the market had previously priced in nearly four hikes, so the Fed was actually less hawkish and less harsh; plus, concerns about the CLARITY Act in the Senate have temporarily eased, and two other crypto-related bills passed the House committee, so with regulatory expectations loosening, shorts got crushed.
Looking at my positions, my mood was as intense as the market:
The CAP short position was impressive, floating profit of 17.49%, the only saving grace today; the newly opened CNPY short took a small 3% loss, new coins are indeed tough; the most frustrating was FLOCK, which I had just climbed out of the pit and earned over 20 points a few days ago, but this broad rally wiped it out, now floating a 119% loss, buried back in deep water.
So the rate hike was good news for others, but for someone like me fully short, it was a real negative. Two of the three shorts are losing, only CAP is still holding strong. No point overthinking it, since the market chose to go up, I just have to accept it and watch.The biggest danger for BTC right now isn't a drop.
It's that funds are starting to "pick coins."
BTC: around $76K
ETH: around $2.4K
XRP: around $1.3
SOL: around $100
After the CLARITY Act setback, XRP once dropped nearly 8%, while BTC only fell about 1.4%. (24/7 Wall St.)
But what's even more unusual is:
On September 16, XRP ETF net inflow was $3.5 million.
On the same day, BTC and ETH ETFs combined saw an outflow of about **$520 million**. (CryptoRank)
So from now on, I’m only watching:
BTC: $75K
XRP: $1.30
ETH: $2.40K
SOL: $100
If BTC holds $75K and XRP climbs back above 1.40, altcoin sentiment might revive.
But if BTC breaks below $75K and XRP can’t even hold $1.30—
This won’t be a catch-up rally, but continued deleveraging.
Tonight, I’m watching the funds first, not the trading calls. BTC is still around $76,000, but XRP is starting to show a very strange signal.
After the setback of the CLARITY Act:
BTC: about $76,000
ETH: about $2,400
XRP: about $1.30
SOL: back above $100
However, the funds are not fully aligned with market cap rankings.
XRP ETF has seen a net inflow of about **$3.5 million** in the past two days, while BTC+ETH ETFs have had a net outflow of about **$1.11 billion** during the same period.
So next, I’m watching three levels:
BTC $75K
XRP $1.30
SOL $100
If BTC holds $75K, XRP climbs back to 1.40, and SOL stays steady at 100, the market might start to reprice "altcoin catch-up".
Conversely, if all three levels break together, don’t rush to buy.
Right now, the most important thing isn’t guessing bull or bear markets, but seeing which one shows a capital reversal first.$BTC has rebounded, but I’m hesitant to interpret this bullish candle as a reversal.
Today BTC returned to around $76,600, and market sentiment is clearly better than yesterday.
The problem is, the capital flow hasn’t improved accordingly.
On September 15, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $450 million, and on September 16, it continued to outflow about $296 million; ETH ETFs also experienced significant outflows during the same period. The combined BTC and ETH ETF outflows over these two days have exceeded $1 billion.
So now there’s a very typical contradiction:
Price rebounds first, but institutional funds haven’t followed yet.
This kind of market is most prone to mistaking a "deep pullback rebound" for a "trend reversal."
I will wait for the ETF outflows to at least stop consecutively before considering this rebound to be higher.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 Although Vitalik says AI won't destroy crypto, there's still a but.
This one has to sound impressive: although underlying cryptography is quite vulnerable to AI breakthroughs, the risk of vulnerabilities at the application layer and infrastructure layer is very high. (As mentioned before)
So, first advice to those still working at traditional audit firms: it's recommended to change jobs early.
The old model of spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to get an audit firm's stamp is just paper-thin in front of AI.
In the future, development teams must conduct audits that fully verify the entire program, including the operating system, hardware layers, and so on. The awkward truth is that many projects simply don't meet this standard, and it's not just a money issue.
Next,
projects that can't keep up with AI security pace will be taken down by hackers or directly killed by AI. Later on, it will suddenly emerge that some project has gone to zero; don't be surprised, even if it's an exchange or a wallet.
Also, some people have started using AI hacker incidents to talk about the Bitcoin market, predicting BTC will be halved within two years.
I don't know if hackers can achieve that, but the current economy still has a pretty good chance of halving Bitcoin in about two years, and it probably won't stop at just halving.
When AI can generate itself, hackers will be delighted; Vitalik is issuing a death notice to protocols that haven't upgraded their AI defenses yet.
I also want to become an AI hacker—it's a goldmine. Does anyone know where to learn?Oh my god! Is it really that strong? $ZEC has hit a new all-time high again and again.
I've been watching it all day today, looking for shorting opportunities because the FOMO is just too strong.
Fortunately, I've been paying close attention to the OI indicator, because throughout the entire rise from yesterday to today, it has been continuously increasing. As the price rises, shorts are constantly being liquidated, but the open interest keeps growing. There is only one possibility: more longs are adding positions, which indicates real capital inflow.
The foundation of this market trend is very solid, so I didn't dare to short. Even now, I'm still looking for opportunities, still hesitating over the OI value, because it rose another 7% today, but the OI value hasn't decreased much.
I estimate the decrease is only from shorts being liquidated; the longs haven't fully exited yet, so I continue to hold on! Continue to watch!
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice!$ZEC The original high point on 9/9 was 1299, which was the highest point until today. At that time, I thought: what if a smart person placed a short order at 1299 with 10x leverage? If they went all in, then for those who have a cost price of 1299 and get liquidated, what price would it need to reach? Considering that the liquidated short orders instantly turn into buy orders, the price could still rise at least another 1%. So 1299 * 1.11 = 1441.89, approximately 1442. Good things don’t work, but bad things are accurate. The new question now is: 1442 * 1.11 = 1600.62. Everyone says: can it reach 1600??? #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 If I didn’t have real ZEC short positions, would I say this several times a day? I’m really losing badly. I hope future people take me as an example and learn from my caution! Fellow shorts: be careful! Take care! Don’t go all in, don’t gamble your life with high leverage!$BTC After this rate hike, if it can still hold on to 76,000 yuan, I don't think the short-term outlook is that weak.
The Federal Reserve just completed its first rate hike since 2023, with rates rising to 3.75%–4.00%, and 16 officials expect at least another hike within the year. Logically, this is not good news for BTC.
But $BTC is still holding around $76,000, even slightly rising within 24 hours, indicating that the worst-case scenario of "hitting rates and immediately crashing the market" has not yet occurred.
What I am more concerned about now is not the rate hikes themselves, but whether the market has begun to adapt to high interest rates.
If BTC can later regain 77,000–78,000 yuan, this pullback feels more like a repricing; If the rally still fails, we still need to guard against a second dip.
If the negative news has landed and the collapse hasn't collapsed, that's a good thing; But for a real strengthening, price confirmation is still needed.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 The two words "temporary" are very familiar to veteran crypto holders.
The SEC chair said the innovation exemption is temporary, principled, and structured relief. Translated, it means: Let you run a few steps first, but the rope is still in my hand.
My first reaction is not positive; it reminds me of those "pilot programs," "sandboxes," and "transition periods" I've followed before. Every time they say they'll open a small gap first, but the gap has been open for three years, the rules have been revised eight times, and in the end, very few projects survive.
What really hits hard is the phrase "regulatory uncertainty hinders innovation." How many years has this been said? It was said when I entered the circle, and it's still being said now. Is uncertainty really a barrier, or is it a chip some people hold?
How long can this exemption last? Will it be another "loosen first, tighten later" play?
What do you all think?
#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #贝森特听证释放多重信号 $BTC So my assessment is: structural repair + tactical short covering, not a trend reversal driven by new buying. BTC bounced from 74,900 to around 76,800, roughly the middle of the range. The higher it goes, the closer it gets to the "unwinding selling pressure" zone—between 79,600 (the rebound high on 9/14 this week) and 79,800 (the upper edge of the range) is the real resistance from tonight to tomorrow. Only after breaking through can we talk about the 80,000 level and the long-term holder wall of 1.05 million BTC above it $BTC #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 🧭 $BTC , $ETH & $LIT — THREE DIFFERENT ROLES
If the CLARITY Act advances, the bigger story may be capital rotation, not just price appreciation.
₿ $BTC ~$76.4K → Market anchor
◆ $ETH ~$2.45K → DeFi, smart contracts & tokenization
⚡ $LIT ~$4.29 → Higher-beta, higher volatility
For $ETH, I’m watching $2.50K as a key level.
The real signal is where liquidity and momentum start moving next.
Don’t just watch price. Watch the flow.#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve XRP released news today that's even more worth watching than the "bill not passing".
Ripple has started integrating XRP into AI Agent's payment system.
The newly announced development tool today already supports:
AI Agent → XRP / RLUSD → automatic payments
In other words, in the future, you won't have to click "confirm payment."
Instead, the AI will buy services, call APIs, and settle fees on its own.
What's even more interesting is that the partnership directly includes Stripe + Tempo. (CoinDesk)
And XRP is still around $1.30.
Yesterday, after the CLARITY Act setback, XRP briefly dropped to about $1.29, with a single-day decline close to 8%-12%; but today it has started to rebound. (24/7 Wall St.)
I'm actually not in a hurry to see $2 now.
First, watch three levels:
$1.30: Can it hold steady?
$1.35: Can it break through again?
$1.50: Can it fill the gap left by regulatory negative news?
There's also an interesting data point:
On September 16, XRP ETF still had about $3.5 million net inflow, while BTC and ETH ETFs combined had about $1.11 billion net outflow. (Benzinga)
So XRP now has three variables at once:
ETF has capital → AI payments have new narrative → price is still low. Imagination space for $ZEC bull market
Many people may underestimate the imagination space for ZEC in a bull market.
In the 2017 rally, $BCH's market cap once reached 30% of BTC's, and $LTC also reached 8%. The core narrative the market gave them at the time was essentially "an upgraded version of Bitcoin."
Currently, ZEC's market cap relative to BTC is only 1.6%.
If this ratio returns to 15%-20% in the future, it is actually not completely unimaginable.
Assuming BTC reaches $100,000, the corresponding ZEC price would be about $15,000-$20,000.
In other words, a five-figure ZEC price is not mathematically impossible.
ZEC entering the top five by market cap is basically a done deal; being more aggressive, it could even push SOL down and enter the top three by market cap.Don't rush to FOMO! The "Sugar Coating" and "Cannonballs" Behind the US $BTC Reserve Act
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
The US House of Representatives is advancing the BTC Reserve Act, and the whole network is shouting that the bull market is coming? Don't rush, calmly look at the two key signals behind this; this might be a "golden handcuff" for retail investors.
1. 20-Year Lockup: Super Whales Entering
The act stipulates that the government must hold BTC for at least 20 years. It seems like a long-term positive, but in fact, it means the US government will become the largest "dead long" and "super whale" in history.
Previously, we only watched the Federal Reserve's mood; in the future, a statement from the White House can sway the market. When a national-level will becomes the largest holder, how much room for decentralized faith and game theory do retail investors have against absolute chips?
2. Tax-Free Sweetener vs Regulatory Iron Fist
Don't just focus on the "$10 tax-free transaction" sweetener. The act simultaneously introduces "wash sale rules," completely closing the loophole for loss tax deductions.
This is a typical "regulatory substitution": using the convenience of small payments in exchange for comprehensive tax transparency on your trading behavior. The cost of compliance is transparency.
Summary:
The legislation's passage is indeed a milestone but also marks the end of the wild frontier era. The future is not about who runs fastest but who understands better how to survive under regulatory frameworks.
What do you think: Is this a national-level endorsement or the beginning of co-optation? Let's discuss in the comments The CLARITY Act didn’t pass — BTC didn’t crash. The Fed delivered a rate hike — still no major drop. What is this market trying to do? 😭 The last two days have been painful for both bulls and bears. Hard-earned unrealized profits can disappear in minutes. Negative headlines keep stacking up, yet $BTC stubbornly refuses to break down. But here’s the interesting part: This may simply be the market re-pricing the marginal impact of the news. When headlines stop driving direction, pricing power shiWhy the rise? Three reasons combined together
Boot effect. The interest rate hike was already priced in at 92.4% before the meeting. After the unanimous 12:0 vote to raise by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, the "uncertainty" itself disappeared.
Oil prices plunged tonight. Around 20:25, WTI fell below $95/barrel, dropping more than 2.7%, Brent dropped over 4%; while on 9/16 close, they were still at 102.43 and 105.83 respectively. Supply shock inflation fears oil prices the most; when oil softens, the tail risk of "Fed forced to continuously raise rates" is pushed down, which directly explains tonight's rally in gold (above 4,370), US stock futures, and crypto together.
Short covering. On 9/16, out of the $670 million liquidation, longs accounted for $570 million, leveraged longs have been cleared once; tonight, the rebound direction cleared shorts — third-party liquidation calendar shows on 9/17, long liquidations about $111 million, short liquidations about $141 million, shorts surpassing longs. ⚠️ This data is from a non-mainstream aggregation site only, without original CoinGlass data, so it can only be used as directional reference.$SOL is climbing back toward the $100–$103 region after bouncing from the recent lows. The recovery looks impressive on the chart, but the underlying participation still needs confirmation. 📉 Volume is sending a mixed signal. SOL is moving higher, yet trading activity is gradually fading. That creates a price-volume divergence: momentum is improving, but fresh capital isn't accelerating alongside the move. 📊 Leverage is another variable to watch. Long positioning is sitting around 63–65%, showThe position at 76776 is neither high nor low, stuck in the middle of the oscillation range. The area from 77500 to 78000 above is a dense trap zone for this rebound; both attempts to surge were pushed back, and volume couldn't keep up. The short-term bullish defense line is at 76000 below; if broken, the next target is 75000. Currently, the market has no direction, funds are waiting for macro data, don't guess, follow the structure.
Just placed the thermos on the windowsill, the wind outside has picked up, and leaves are blowing all over the ground.
In terms of operation, lightly short from 77000 to 76800, stop loss at 78100, first target 75800, second target 75000. If volume increases and it stabilizes above 78000, reverse to long, target 79200. Remember to place orders in advance, don't chase. Chasing orders in a volatile market is just giving money to the market makers.
Defense points must be set; not setting stop loss is reckless. Control position size within 20%, add more after a breakout.
$BTC
#沙特管道修复预期压低油价
@OKX星球 XRP's recent price movement shows some unusual data.
After the setback of the CLARITY Act on September 15:
XRP once dropped nearly 12%, hitting a low close to $1.29.
BTC's decline during the same period was significantly smaller.
Normally, such a drop would be accompanied by capital withdrawal.
But in reality, an interesting divergence appeared:
XRP ETFs saw a net inflow of about $3.5 million in the past two days.
Meanwhile, during the same period:
BTC + ETH ETFs
had a combined net outflow of about $1.11 billion. (Benzinga)
In other words:
The price is falling,
but XRP ETF funds are not running away.
This is why I am currently focusing on XRP.
Here is how I view the key levels:
$1.30
If this level can hold steadily, it indicates that the previous panic selling is being absorbed.
Only by reclaiming $1.40 can the drop caused by the CLARITY Act failure be truly recovered.
Looking further up to $1.50.
But if $1.30 is decisively broken, especially with high volume, then the next phase should not be seen as just an "oversold rebound" but requires re-examining the liquidity below.
There is another more important variable:
Although the CLARITY Act is stuck at 49:50, the SEC today granted a 5-year regulatory exemption for tokenized stocks. (Reuters)
So XRP is currently facing two simultaneous factors:
Regulatory expectations setback + institutional funds still flowing in $SOL has once again pushed toward the $100 psychological barrier. Price looks strong from the lows, but trading volume isn’t following. 📈 Price keeps climbing 📉 Volume keeps shrinking That can make the rally look stronger than the underlying capital flow actually is. Positioning is another thing to watch 👀 Bulls now make up roughly 67% of positions, showing clearly bullish sentiment and increasingly crowded positioning. When price rises while positions become heavily concentrated on one side,$SOL is once again pushing toward the $101–$102 area after recovering from the recent lows. The rebound looks strong from a price perspective, but the volume picture is less convincing. 📉 Price is rising while participation is cooling. If SOL continues climbing without a meaningful increase in trading volume or fresh spot demand, the move could struggle to maintain momentum. 📊 Positioning is another risk factor. Long exposure is now around 65%, showing that bullish bets are relatively crowded.$SOL is once again pushing toward the $100–$102 region after recovering from the recent lows. The rebound looks impressive from a price perspective, but the volume picture remains less convincing. 📉 Momentum vs. participation: SOL is advancing while trading activity is gradually cooling. That suggests the recovery is being driven by price momentum more than a strong expansion in fresh capital. If this divergence continues, the move could become increasingly sensitive to resistance. 📊 PositioniJPYC Suspends Ethereum Minting Reservations: Upbit Lists on the Same Day, Deposits and Withdrawals Only Recognize ETH
JPYC had two conflicting pieces of news today: on one hand, Upbit listed the yen stablecoin; on the other, the issuer urgently suspended minting reservations on Ethereum.
The official outage notice states that ETH network minting reservations are temporarily halted, with the cause still under investigation; meanwhile, South Korea's Upbit opened KRW/BTC/USDT trading pairs but only accepts deposits and withdrawals via Ethereum. The opening time was pushed back multiple times from noon, fluctuating between 15:00 and later in the evening—if you waited based on the earliest announced time, you likely waited in vain.
The key points about unavailability are specific: listing only means existing tokens can be traded, but it doesn't guarantee new minting will continue; Upbit does not accept JPYC on other chains like Avalanche or Polygon, so choosing the wrong chain means you can't access it. Don't mistake "opening" for the faucet being turned back on.Tonight's market movement is worth mentioning: two bearish factors, interest rate hikes and the bill being rejected, have both materialized, yet the coin price did not fall but rose instead. However, the rise is not due to buying pressure, but short covering.
Current prices (Beijing time, market fluctuates quickly, timestamped points)
BTC: 20:52 approximately $76,806 (+1.19%), 22:04 retreated to about $76,471; daily low $75,048
ETH: 20:52 approximately $2,462 (+2.41%), clearly stronger than BTC; daily low $2,368.6
Compared to the 9/16 low: BTC once dropped 5.3% to $74,910, ETH dropped over 8.3% (Shanghai Metals Market) → meaning the recent two-day drop has basically been recovered $BTC #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 $SOL has once again approached the $100 psychological level. The rally from the lows looks strong on the chart, but there’s a key warning sign: 📉 Price is rising while volume is shrinking. At first glance, it looks like bulls are back in control. But weaker volume suggests capital isn’t necessarily following the move. Positioning adds another layer 👀 Bulls now account for roughly 67% of positions, showing strong bullish sentiment and crowded positioning. When price rises while positioning becoRetail talk: ONE vs NEAR today — not financial advice! $NEAR: The solid one, up 16% today! Chart: crawling along MA20 nicely, not crazy volume but clear capital backing. Just broke 2-day micro consolidation. Pattern intact. My take: Fundamentals + AI narrative is real. But heavy supply above $3.10. Don't chase high here, risk of shakeout. Wait for pullback to $2.70 support for small test. $ONE: The lottery ticket, +1% today. Chart: Volatility up, big orders testing waters but volume hasn't explo$SOL is once again moving toward the $100 psychological zone after rebounding from the recent lows. The price recovery looks strong on the surface, but the underlying participation tells a more cautious story. 📉 Volume is the key concern: SOL continues to climb while trading activity is gradually weakening. Price strength without expanding volume can indicate that the move is not yet supported by enough fresh capital. 📊 Positioning is getting crowded: bullish positions are estimated at around #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and as a result, $BTC and $ETH were not crushed but actually moved upward.
Bitcoin briefly broke through 77,000, rising 1.11% in 24 hours; Ethereum stood above 2,450, up 1.86%. Previously, the market treated the rate hike as negative news and fell in advance, but when it actually happened, there was a sense of relief, and risk assets got a breather. $XAU also strengthened to 4,310, forming a linkage with Bitcoin in the inflation resistance narrative, which is quite an interesting signal.
However, one thing to note is that this rally had low trading volume and limited order book depth, representing a mild drift under low liquidity rather than a directional market driven by broad consensus. In the short term, watch Bitcoin resistance at 76,864 and Ethereum at the 2,500 level.
My current position is very clean, fully empty. I also closed the tail end of my short Ethereum position earlier; this rate hike landing didn’t hit me, and I didn’t chase it. It’s not that I’m bearish on the rebound, but the volume didn’t keep up, and I don’t want to rush in when liquidity is thin. If it really takes off, it’s not too late to enter after volume confirmation.
The rate hike landing without a drop but a rise indicates that the negative news might be fully priced in, but whether it can sustain depends on whether funds follow up. I’ll keep watching and wait for Bitcoin to stand above the key level before making a move. Did you chase this rally or stay empty like me? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ Hyperliquid's largest short position holder Garrett Jin's short position unrealized loss has expanded to 28 million USD, with an average price of 665. Last night, he still added to the position against the trend at 1252, and the forced liquidation price was directly pushed down to 2631 USD.
In my opinion, the whale is really stubborn; after closing the BTC long, he turned around to single-handedly challenge the altcoin rally. Now this truly becomes fuel for all the bulls on the network🤣
$THETA The most unusual detail today is not the 5.68% increase, but that the funding rate turned positive to +0.0050% while the price failed to break above MA5 (0.0695). The current price is 0.0688, with a bullish moving average alignment (MA5 > MA20), and the MACD histogram remains positive, indicating the mid-term trend is intact; however, the price is held down by the short-term moving average, and the RSI is only 56.1, which is a typical "healthy trend, rhythm consolidation".
Here is a reusable method for market analysis: to judge if the trend is healthy, look at two points — first, whether MA5 is still above MA20 and not flattening or turning downward; second, whether the price holds near the Bollinger middle band during pullbacks. Currently, THE has MA5=0.0695, MA20=0.067955, Bollinger lower band 0.064649, upper band 0.071261, and the price is running above the middle band, so the structure is intact. The real risk signal would be the price breaking below MA20 and the MACD histogram turning negative, which has not happened yet.
Therefore, my view is bullish but only to enter on pullbacks. Entry reference is 0.0672–0.0680 (close to MA20 and Bollinger middle band support); take profit 1 at 0.0712 (Bollinger upper band resistance), take profit 2 at 0.0730 (extension after breaking the upper band); stop loss at 0.0645 (below Bollinger lower band, breaking which invalidates the trend logic). The fear and greed index at 50 is neutral and does not constitute an extreme contrarian signal. After holding OKB for a long time, I realized one thing: once you buy a coin, it's easy to automatically become part of its promotional team.
When you see good news, you want to share it; when you see doubts, you want to explain; you almost want to hold a press conference for your own position. But thinking about it, sometimes even I can't tell if I'm researching or just trying to prove I made the right purchase.
At the time of writing, OKB is around $111, fluctuating roughly between $108 and $116 over the past week. It does feel a bit frustrating, but just from these fluctuations, you can't really see any "signs of a surge."
I still have a positive outlook on OKB, keeping what I have and continuing to invest regularly at my own pace. But one thing I have to remind myself: I can't lower my standards just because my holdings increase. Whether future developments can bring sustained demand still needs to be observed.The Fed's SEP raised the median interest rate for the end of 2026 from 3.8% to 4.1%. After just adding 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, 16 out of 18 members in the dot plot still want to raise rates once more, with the median for 2027 remaining at 4.1%.
Growth forecasts were revised up, unemployment rate was lowered, and the inflation target was pushed back to 2029. This is not "peak after the last hike," but rather staying at a high level after the hikes. The dot plot will change, inflation won't return, and 4.1% will not be just a forecast.BTC is still hovering around $76,000, ETH is still struggling near $2,400.
But SOL has already moved first.
Currently about $100.3.
7 days: +9.2%
30 days: +15.6%
During the same period:
BTC 7 days about -0.6%
ETH 7 days about -3.7%.
This is the most worth-watching divergence right now.
And SOL reclaiming $100 is not an ordinary number.
Next, I’m only watching two levels:
Can $100 hold?
If it holds → next target is $105-$110
If it falls back below $100 again, especially losing $97-$98, this strong momentum needs to be reassessed.
More importantly:
BTC ETF still had a net outflow of $245 million yesterday, but BTC price remains above $76K. (InflowScan)
So the market is not simply in a "full risk-off" mode right now.
Capital is selectively choosing strong assets.
BTC eyes $76K, ETH eyes $2,400, SOL eyes $100.
Among these three levels, whoever breaks through first tonight might be the signal to watch for the next phase of the market.$SOL has climbed back toward the $101–$103 zone, recovering strongly from the recent lows. Price momentum looks constructive, but the move is still lacking convincing volume confirmation. 📉 Volume is the main warning sign: as SOL pushes higher, trading activity is gradually fading. The price chart may look bullish, but weaker participation suggests buyers haven't yet shown enough fresh demand to fully validate the rally. 📊 Positioning is another key factor. Long exposure is estimated near 64%,Let's take a look at the Dogecoin part.
The current price is about 0.082.
It has bounced back slightly above 0.08, but it has already broken the stop loss before.
The market situation doesn't seem to have changed much; the approach remains the same: don't trade this one for now, don't add back just because it bounced.
Consider the orders that have been stopped as completed.
Don't chase losses.
Short positions at 0.09, 0.10, stop loss at 0.11, just leave them for now.
Wait until the new range is clear before discussing further.
For now, stay empty-handed. $ONE ONE's sudden surge this time is mainly driven by funds starting to re-speculate on the narrative of established public blockchains, combined with the fact that it had previously dropped deeply, making the chips relatively cheap. Once the trading volume picks up, continuous rallies can easily occur. However, after such a sharp rise, the biggest risk is chasing the high; those who didn't get in earlier face significantly higher risks now compared to buying at lower levels. My view is: this rally should not be simply understood as "ended with one big bullish candle" for the time being. If the trading volume can be maintained and the price pullback does not break key support levels, there is indeed room for further upward movement; but if after a volume surge the volume immediately shrinks and the price falls back to the starting point, it is very likely that funds are using the hype to sell off. Simply put, whether $ONE has a second wave depends on two key factors: trading volume and pullback support. If funds continue to enter, it is possible to shake out during consolidation after the surge and then rise again; if it is just short-term speculation, the faster it rises, the harsher the potential retracement.September 17 Evening Analysis of SanDisk, Nvidia, Rocket, and AI Trends
Risk Warning: Overseas securities trading processes are complicated; exchange rate fluctuations, liquidity tightening, and regulatory changes can all lead to potential losses. This article only outlines public industry and market logic and does not constitute any buying or selling guidance or investment advice. All trading profits and losses must be borne by the participants themselves.
On the evening of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting concluded as expected with a 25 basis point rate hike. However, the dot plot and Powell's press conference released a hawkish signal, leading the market to start pricing in expectations of "high interest rates lasting longer." After the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields experienced sharp volatility, and market sentiment shifted from pre-event wait-and-see to repricing the new interest rate path. The previous sentiment suppressing the tech growth sector due to "AI slowing down large model iteration" still lingers, but after the event, funds are no longer solely driven by news and have begun to return to corporate fundamentals and order expectations. Evening market volatility significantly increased, with clear differentiation among sectors, no longer a uniform rise or fall pattern.
SanDisk, as a core stock in the storage sector, is deeply tied to server SSD and large-capacity flash memory demand driven by AI computing clusters. The industry has undergone a long inventory reduction cycle, with storage product prices steadily recovering. The company’s long-term supply agreements lock in some orders, providing a certain fundamental floor. Previously, the market worried that cloud providers slowing supercomputing construction would reduce storage forward order expectations, pressuring the stock price. After the rate decision, the market re-evaluated the storage sector: the slowdown in cutting-edge large model training does not eliminate the rigid storage demand from inference computing expansion and existing server upgrades. Signed long-term framework agreements are unlikely to change easily. SanDisk saw a recovery rally in the evening, partially digesting prior pessimism, and the storage sector overall saw capital inflows. However, the rebound is not without constraints; the high interest rate environment still suppresses valuations. The rebound is more a repair after negative sentiment release and unlikely to start a unilateral major rise. If U.S. Treasury yields surge again, the stock price will face pullback pressure. Going forward, close attention is needed on storage industry pricing and real capital expenditure data from cloud providers, as relying solely on sentiment-driven rebounds has limited sustainability.
Nvidia is the emotional anchor of the AI industry chain, and its market performance directly influences the semiconductor sector’s direction. Fundamentally, the delivery progress of the new generation GPUs aligns with plans, and major cloud providers’ long-term purchase orders lock in revenue for multiple future quarters, eliminating earnings shock risk. Previously, the market worried that a slowdown in large model iteration would weaken computing power procurement, but evening funds began to differentiate: training-side computing expansion is constrained, but enterprise privatized deployment, AI agents, and inference computing expansion demand remain strong. This part of the business is not restricted by industry initiatives, and the long-term growth logic remains intact. After the rate decision, Nvidia entered a recovery rally, boosting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. However, note that the market is no longer willing to grant unlimited valuation premiums; in a high interest rate environment, stock price gains require sustained earnings support. If Nvidia holds key support in the evening, the adjustment pressure on the entire AI computing industry chain will ease; a sharp decline would trigger a semiconductor sector chain sell-off.
The Rocket (commercial aerospace) sector has an independent thematic narrative, with long-term stories like low-earth orbit satellite networks, reusable rockets, and space computing attracting some capital. However, the sector’s inherent weaknesses remain: most companies have yet to achieve stable profitability, and stock prices heavily depend on risk appetite and news catalysts, with weak self-sustaining capabilities. After the Fed rate decision, market risk appetite partially recovered, causing pulse-like rebounds in the sector, but sustained upward trends are unlikely. Internal sector differentiation will intensify: leaders with stable launch orders and mature satellite manufacturing businesses show stronger resilience; pure concept plays lacking concrete projects have limited rebound strength and are prone to pullbacks when market sentiment declines. Short-term funds in the evening still favor quick in-and-out trades; even positive news mostly triggers short-term pulses, unable to reverse the volatile pattern. Without a substantial shift in the macro interest rate environment, commercial aerospace is unlikely to become a market main theme.
The AI sector entered a key window for expectation restructuring in the evening, with the market splitting the industry logic into two main lines. On one hand, the pace of cutting-edge large model iteration faces slowdown pressure, and upstream computing hardware will still be emotionally disturbed in the short term; on the other hand, AI commercialization progress has not stalled, with vertical industry solutions, enterprise AI applications, and inference service sectors offering structural opportunities. Capital expenditure logic has shifted: companies no longer blindly pile up model parameters but focus more on whether AI can reduce costs and increase efficiency, bringing real revenue growth. This causes huge internal sector differentiation; the uniform rise or fall market is over. The AI sector overall oscillated and repaired in the evening; stocks with excessive prior gains and only thematic stories without earnings delivery showed weaker rebounds; leaders deeply cultivating niche sectors and commercial projects showed stronger rebounds. The market no longer simply trades AI concepts but begins to discern real earnings delivery capability.
Considering all evening variables, after the Fed rate decision, the market’s biggest uncertainty shifted from "whether to raise rates" to "how long high rates will last." U.S. Treasury yield volatility will continue to affect valuations of SanDisk, Nvidia, and AI growth sectors; the commercial aerospace sector remains constrained by risk appetite, and single positive factors are unlikely to change the mid-term volatile pattern. The AI slowdown is more a short-term emotional shock and will not overturn the industry’s long-term development logic; the market moves from rapid rallies to oscillation digestion.
Institutions began rebalancing after the decision, avoiding blind large-scale attacks. Each sector must withstand the test of a high interest rate environment; only companies that can continuously deliver earnings have the confidence to weather volatility. Traders need to distinguish short-term repair rebounds from mid-to-long-term trends, avoid being misled by sharp evening market fluctuations, cautiously assess various news impacts, and manage risks well. (Full text 1494 characters)
Would you like me to organize a post-rate decision scenario simulation summary table for each sector using the Work Task Mode?$BOME $BOME It touched 0.001 again, this level is quite interesting. Looking at the market, the main force is really selling with real money, heavy volume pushing down then pulling back, this technique doesn't look like something retail investors can pull off, it strongly smells like a manipulative washout by big players. Purely based on the candlestick without considering news, I tend to position small stakes in this area, if it breaks below the previous low then admit being wrong and exit, don't go heavy or all in. Without narrative support, it's all held up by capital, bear the risk yourself. What do you think, is this a washout or a bull trap?
👇👇👇Let me first share my view: a single big bearish candlestick can't define a bull market, nor can it define a bear market. Every major market in crypto experiences several pullbacks that make people question their lives. When prices rise, people think it's only a matter of time before 100,000 or 200,000 Bitcoins are met; After a day of decline, the comment section turns into "everything reset to zero." Those who truly lose money often don't judge the wrong direction, but rather lose control of their emotions. The biggest feature of yesterday's market wasn't a drop, but a concentrated wash of leveraged funds. Many people chased gains and opened long positions with full leverage, thinking there wouldn't be a pullback, only to be forced into liquidation in one move. The market never warns you of risks in advance; it only starts harvesting when everyone is most optimistic. If you're trading spot trading, you should ask yourself three questions now: First, is my logic for buying it still intact? Second, is my position so heavy I can't sleep? Third, do I still have cash waiting for the next opportunity? Many people add positions whenever prices drop, chase when prices rise, and end up holding heavier positions and increasing costs. True discipline isn't trading every day, but knowing when to do nothing. Recently, I've been paying more attention to capital flows rather than the price itself. If BTC regains its key position, ETH continues to attract attention, and SOL and SUI rebound with increased volume, market sentiment may recover. But if trading volume keeps shrinking and the rebound is uneventful, you need to be more vigilant. Here's another message for everyone still in a bull market: In a bull market, you make money from trends, not from emotions. Don't deny your long-term plans just because of a single drop, and don't do that📦Storage sector changes! The market no longer rises universally; capital begins to pick winners
$MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX
Industry tailwinds remain, but the market no longer rises in unison. It's not that the boom has peaked, but earlier expectations were fully priced in, and capital is now selectively choosing stocks.
$MU Micron｜Waiting for earnings to set direction
Current price 926.55, holding a small floating profit on long positions at 916.
Three-pronged layout: HBM/DRAM/NAND, the 9.30 earnings report is key, focusing on HBM shipments, profit margins, and future guidance.
Support at 900-915; if it holds above, it will challenge 950, and reclaiming 1040 is needed to reverse the pullback.
$SNDK SanDisk｜NAND has high volatility, expectations overextended
Current price 1519.97, retreated from the 1800 high.
Last quarter revenue up 51% quarter-over-quarter, benefiting from NAND price increases and a 14 billion buyback.
1500 is the lifeline; breaking above 1580-1600 will repair the market, breaking below points to 1450.
SK Hynix｜Pure HBM leader
Current price 1,744,000 KRW, benefiting from capacity expansion and AI demand.
Support at 1,690,000-1,700,000 KRW, resistance at 1,800,000-1,850,000 KRW.
The trend of storage price increases in Q3 remains unchanged, only the pace of price hikes on the consumer side has slowed.
The sector logic still holds, but individual stocks have officially entered a performance elimination phase.
Holding MU and watching; the 916 entry point should not be treated as just a psychological defense line. What’s most worth watching now isn’t whether BTC is rising or not.
It’s that the funds for BTC, ETH, and XRP are starting to diverge.
BTC: around $76,000
ETH: around $2,400
XRP: around $1.30
After the setback of the CLARITY Act, ETF funds for BTC and ETH have clearly withdrawn.
But there’s a counterintuitive data point:
XRP ETF has had net inflows for two consecutive days, totaling about $3.5 million.
At the same time, BTC + ETH ETFs have had combined outflows of about $1.11 billion. (Benzinga)
So going forward, I will focus on:
Whether BTC can retake $77,000
Whether ETH can reclaim $2,450
Whether XRP can hold $1.30
If BTC stabilizes first, XRP continues to see inflows, and ETH remains around $2,400,
the market may be shifting from "full risk-off" to:
Buying coins with regulatory expectations and capital support first.
Especially XRP.
If it can retake $1.40 at this level, market sentiment could be noticeably different.
Conversely, if $1.30 breaks, we need to look again at support below.
Don’t guess the bottom; watch the funds and key price levels.