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$ARB is bullish after a sharp surge, just waiting for a pullback confirmation
Such an almost vertical rally can make you nervous to chase, but blindly guessing the top is more likely to get you thrown off. The trend momentum is still there, bulls haven't exhausted, so don't try to predict the top now. Patiently wait for a pullback to the support zone to stabilize before entering, let volatility work for you instead of against you.
Trading plan: short-term bullish bias, but only trade on pullback confirmation or breakout confirmation
Trading advice: consider entering after a pullback stabilizes between 0.1756–0.1993; if it strengthens directly, follow after it breaks above 0.2298. Set stop loss at 0.173, take profit first at 0.2477, then at 0.2638.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% Among the top four $ZEC holding addresses, three are short positions.
Why do whales sometimes take the wrong side? On-chain holdings only indicate position size, not the quality of the judgment. Capital scale can withstand volatility but cannot withstand a fundamentally wrong direction.
The fourth largest short was liquidated near 1400, with a $20 million position wiped out completely. Leverage does not consider address balance, only maintenance margin. What is visible on-chain is the result; what is not visible is why they dared to increase their position at this level.
What really needs monitoring is not who got liquidated, but whether the top three shorts have reduced their positions. If they haven't closed out, it means this counter logic is not yet complete.
#ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注 $ZEC 以太坊在 CLARITY 法案投票失败当天暴跌超 8%，比比特币跌幅大了一倍。但你如果只看价格，就错过了真正的故事。 第一，机构还在疯狂囤货。BitMine 已经持有 595.6 万枚 ETH，占全球供应量约 4.9%，距离它的"5% 炼金术"目标只差一步。SharpLink 持有 88.9 万枚，几乎全部质押。两家合计锁定了以太坊流通供应的 5.6% 以上。质押退出队列近乎清空，进入队列却排了超 400 万枚——退出的门敞着，进场却要排队七天。 第二，链上基本面在讲一个完全不同的故事。Q2 以太坊处理了 2.039 亿笔交易，创历史新高，营收环比翻倍。但活跃用户下降了 30%——留下的人在更高频地交易。DeFi 锁仓连续两季走低，但 RWA 代币化逆势暴涨：代币化美债基金环比激增 55.7%，贝莱德 BUIDL 规模突破 28 亿美元。 第三，Glamsterdam 升级又跳票了，从 6 月推到 Q4。Layer-2 分流了主网手续费收入，Solana 在 RWA 发行上抢了不少份额。这是 ETH 过去 12 个月跌 47% 的结构性原因之一。 所以现在的画面是：价格在 2460 美Will long-term US Treasury yields stay at 5% for the long haul? It's still too early to draw conclusions.
It just reached 5%, but a day later, it fell back to 4.93% along with cooling oil prices and the implementation of rate hikes. This fluctuation indicates that 5% seems more like a new boundary the market is repeatedly testing, rather than a fixed new normal.
What worries me more is the speed of the volatility. Pension funds, insurance companies, banks, and various leveraged strategies can adapt to a stable high interest rate over the long term, but they struggle with yields swinging sharply back and forth within days. Rapid changes in bond prices trigger margin calls, duration hedging, and asset rebalancing, with the pressure then passing on to the stock and crypto markets. What really forces institutions to sell assets is often not "high rates," but "rates changing too fast."
Whether 5% becomes the norm depends on the fiscal deficit, long-term bond supply, and inflation expectations—not just fixating on a round number. The market loves to spin stories around round numbers, but balance sheets only recognize volatility and cash flow.
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ #ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注
Zcash ($ZEC) broke through $1500 on September 18, setting a new all-time high, rising about 10% in 24 hours, with a cumulative increase of over 2500% in one year, and its market cap entering the top ten in crypto.
The direct catalyst came from the NU7 governance vote results: about 2.4 million ZEC participated, with a 66% participation rate; holders approved with 99.9% support to shorten block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, doubling throughput; with 98.9% approval, the smoothing issuance curve was rejected, retaining Bitcoin-style halving, with the next halving expected at the end of 2028; the fee redistribution to miners is postponed until February 2031.
Institutional support is equally critical. After the Grayscale spot Zcash ETF (ZCSH) launched on August 25, its assets approached $700 million in less than two weeks, with net inflows exceeding $179 million, providing a compliant channel for institutions. The Ironwood upgrade completed in July permanently closed the vulnerable Orchard pool, fixing the risk of counterfeitable ZEC and introducing quantum-resistant transaction record features, eliminating tail risks that had long suppressed valuation.
In derivatives, funding rates remain negative, with a clear short squeeze structure dominated by spot. Whales have withdrawn about $46 million ZEC from exchanges in the past two days, tightening available liquidity. In the short term, caution is needed for reversal risks caused by thin order books, but with NU7 implementation combined with the opening of the ETF channel, the structural revaluation of the privacy coin narrative may still be in its early stages.$WLD current price 0.4249, 24h +14.04%, trading volume 34.7M USDT; MA5 0.40804 crosses above MA20 0.385105, MACD histogram +0.004667 maintains bullish, but RSI has surged to 88.1, price 0.4249 clearly stands above the Bollinger upper band 0.415337, funding rate +0.0100% is at a relatively high level, fear and greed index 56 falls in the greed zone. With the data presented, the conclusion is not hard: the trend remains bullish, but the short term has entered an overheated zone, making chasing highs a low cost-performance choice.
From the funding perspective, the rate turned positive and is rising, indicating bulls are willing to pay to hold positions, sentiment is skewed to one side; the biggest risk in this structure is a spike—price hanging outside the Bollinger upper band, once profit-taking hits, it can easily trigger concentrated liquidations of bulls, causing a rapid pullback. So my approach is not to chase longs, but to wait for a pullback confirmation before entering.
In terms of operation, entry reference is 0.4050–0.4120, which is the pullback support zone between MA5 and the Bollinger upper band, also near the previous breakout level; take profit 1 is at 0.4380, corresponding to the extended resistance of this rally; take profit 2 is at 0.4550, the emotional premium zone above the previous high. Stop loss is set at 0.3880, breaking below MA20 and losing the Bollinger middle band invalidates the bullish logic.On-paper wealth evaporates by 50 billion, a thought-provoking farce
50 billion USD is not a direct loss but an amount that has "evaporated" out of thin air in the market. The term is used very cleverly. A market maker friend once told me: the unrealized gains shown on paper are just numbers displayed to retail investors; the real liquidity is the trump card in the game played by the big players.
Many reserve companies included cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets years ago. During the price uptrend, their stock prices soared accordingly, and the market once praised these moves as visionary. But once the coin prices weaken, the stock prices fall even faster than the coins themselves. Leverage is a double-edged sword: it amplifies market confidence on the way up, but when the market falls, it infinitely magnifies panic.
What’s even more ironic is that after massive asset evaporation, the management’s first action was to check employee salaries.
It’s like a house on fire, and instead of opening the hydrant to put out the fire, the firefighters hold a meeting to discuss whether the property fees are reasonable — a complete reversal of priorities.
It is highly likely that a large number of shareholder rights protection cases will emerge later. But the truly worthy questions remain ignored: how much position do these companies still hold, what is the cost basis of their chips, whether the tokens are pledged, and whether they face pressure from liquidation thresholds. These core issues are rarely investigated.
Checking salaries is a safe choice; it’s hard to uncover substantive problems and it creates an illusion of actively addressing issues externally.
In my judgment, rights protection is just a prelude; the real storm is the impending liquidation wave.SanDisk SNDK We bottomed near 1506 for the base position and perfectly reached 1620, currently with a profit range of 130!
The market impatiently broke through the bottom triangle convergence, not giving a chance to add positions below 1507.
Currently, it is the first wave A of the rebound wave. After the adjustment wave B appears, it will pull back to support to go long for wave C to rise. The Fibonacci 50% support is at 1573, and the 61.8% support is at 1757. Whenever it reaches these, I will buy the dip without hesitation, targeting 1670-1827.
Boldly hold the base long position near 1506 aiming for 1670-1827.
Here is a misconception to discuss: it's not that I say go long at 1757 and you should short up to 1757. Instead, patiently wait for the pullback before entering. Once you identify a direction, as long as the structure hasn't changed, trade only in that direction and only within your understanding. Trying to catch every market move is the biggest trap!
$SNDK #美联储10月再加息概率破55% "Interest Rate Hike Implemented, Brothers Holding Firm, Don't Pop the Champagne Yet"
The Fed's 25bp hike landed as expected, but the dot plot leans hawkish: possibly one more hike this year. The market has already priced in this hike; the real pressure is that "high interest rates will last longer."
🔸 In the short term, after the bearish news is priced in, there is often a technical rebound, but it feels more like a bull trap rather than a new uptrend. 75500 is the defense line; if held, the range will consolidate; if broken decisively, downside space opens. The resistance at 79500-81000 is significant, and without easing expectations, breaking through is difficult.
🔸 In the medium term, macro headwinds remain. If US Treasury yields stay high and sideways, risk assets like BTC will struggle to attract funds. Watch CPI and non-farm payrolls next: strong data will push December rate hike expectations higher, keeping pressure on the market.
🔸 For operations, avoid heavy contract positions chasing rebounds; reduce leverage; spot trading should focus on defense and observation, waiting for tightening expectations to cool before considering phased entries. Holding firm is not the issue; the question is whether position size and cost can withstand volatility. Exiting losses requires market windows and personal discipline.
In short: Interest rate hike implemented ≠ all bearish news priced in. During the bottoming phase, don't mistake rebounds for reversals.
This is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice; crypto carries very high risk.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 你以为加息+法案流产+油价破百+美债收益率创新高，比特币会崩？它确实跌了——从 7.9 万跌到 7.5 万，然后又默默爬回 7.65 万。 第一，美联储三年首次加息 25bp，利率升至 3.75%-4.0%，全票通过，点阵图显示年内大概率再加一次。沃什的定性是"取消一部分宽松"，翻译过来就是：他觉得金融条件根本不算紧。 第二，CLARITY 法案以 49:50 一票之差折戟参议院。18 个月的谈判，倒在了"总统利益冲突"这最后一关。Galaxy Digital CEO Novogratz 直接说"政府坏了"。比特币当天从 7.8 万跳水到 7.49 万，但第二天加息落地后反而企稳反弹。 第三，布伦特原油还在 105 美元以上，十年期美债收益率盘中触碰 5.04%——2007 年以来最高。按理说这两样东西对风险资产是毒药，但比特币的跌幅明显比美股道指小。 所以，市场在告诉你什么？利空在投票前就已经 price in 了。预测市场上法案通过概率早就从 70% 跌到 17%。真正的信号不是"跌了多少"，而是"利空全部落地之后，还能守住 7.5 万"。 不过先别急着喊底部反转——现货 BTC Midday Review｜Half is heaven, half is hell, bulls and bears feel the cold and warmth, two different worlds
$HYPE you really delivered, soaring +10.17%, with 99.05% of traders in profit on the long side, the vast majority of longs are making gains. My 20x long position return rate surged to **+304.80%**, unrealized profits continue to expand, definitely a lifesaving position.
On the other hand, $BICO slightly rebounded +3.51%, moving sluggishly.
My BICO long position is still deeply underwater, return rate -614.60%, unrealized loss 1532.93U, margin ratio 4.30%, always holding my breath.
Looking at smart money data, most BICO longs are in loss, average entry price 0.0237, current price 0.01978, a large group of people are trapped at high levels just like me.
One side’s position is hugely profitable and running wild, the other side’s position is deeply stuck waiting bitterly for a rebound, the account is completely a tale of two extremes.
✅Deep lesson learned: never heavily hold small-cap coins. This time BICO taught me a harsh lesson. In the future, I will only use very small positions to test small coins, never heavy positions to stubbornly hold.
Fortunately, the HYPE position held strong under pressure and wildly recovered, effectively offsetting BICO’s losses, otherwise it would have been really hard to bear.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 $XPL Conclusion first: The bullish trend remains intact, but do not chase the price at the current level; only buy on pullbacks with a strict stop loss.
Current price 0.08904 is close to the upper Bollinger Band at 0.0892418, RSI at 72.7 has entered the overbought zone, MA5 at 0.08861 has crossed above MA20 at 0.0866695 maintaining a bullish alignment, MACD histogram +0.0001567 is still expanding. The issue is that the funding rate +0.0050% has turned positive, the fear and greed index is 56, leaning greedy, and the amplitude of the last 30 candlesticks is 11.52% — this is a typical "healthy trend but short-term crowded" structure, making the risk-reward ratio for chasing longs very poor.
Position suggestion: Single trade risk exposure should not exceed 2% of total capital, leverage controlled within 3x. Entry reference is 0.0872–0.0880 (the resonance support zone below MA5 and near the upper edge of the Bollinger middle band), take profit 1 at 0.0915 (previous high extension, Bollinger upper band overflow space), take profit 2 at 0.0940 (amplitude equal measurement). Stop loss set at 0.0858 (the last defense line before effectively breaking below MA20 and losing the Bollinger middle band at 0.0841), break below means unconditional exit, no averaging down or adding positions.ZEC Big Zero Coin: The Trick Coin That Specializes in Short Squeezes, Shorting at High Levels Easily Leads to Deep Traps
ZEC, also known as Big Zero Coin Zcash, is the leader in the privacy coin sector. Relying on zero-knowledge proof technology, it can conceal transfer addresses and transaction amounts. Privacy is its core narrative.
🚀 The main catalysts for this round of explosive growth are also the root causes of many traders being trapped:
First, the NU7 network upgrade vote passed with a support rate as high as 99.9%. After the upgrade, block production speed significantly increased while retaining a halving mechanism similar to Bitcoin. This positive narrative ignited market enthusiasm, with large capital inflows driving the price up. While the overall market was sideways, ZEC experienced an independent explosive rally.
Second, Grayscale launched a ZEC spot ETF, warming institutional capital expectations and completely igniting speculation in the privacy coin sector.
Third, the market saw a concentrated short squeeze, with many short orders liquidated consecutively, further pushing prices upward. Many traders, seeing the huge gains, chose to short at high levels and ultimately got deeply trapped. My own short positions have also been trapped for several days.
This trick coin has always been known for punishing shorts. It has considerable controversy over its token distribution, with some early block rewards going to the founding team. The short-term market highly depends on capital sentiment, with strong main force control and extremely volatile price swings. Sharp spikes and washouts are normal.
With the positive narrative heating up, do not blindly chase the rally, and never lightly open short positions against the trend. Privacy coins are high-risk assets; macro liquidity changes and regulatory news can quickly reverse the market. Leveraged trading requires extreme caution. #创作者激励 $BTC #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂 一、大盘速览：加息靴子落地，加密“利空出尽”？ 老铁们，今天这盘面有意思了。 美联储9月16日把基准利率目标区间上调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，这是2023年7月以来首次加息，鲍威尔那帮人还暗示年底前可能再来一刀。按常理，风险资产该瑟瑟发抖对吧？ 结果呢？加密市场反手就是一波全线反弹。BTC报76,304美元涨0.90%，ETH报2,442美元涨2.16%，SOL直接飙到101-105区间涨近4-5%。美股标普500涨0.9%、纳指涨1.5%，整个风险资产同步走强。 但说句掏心窝的话——这波反弹的“水”还不太够。 比特币现货ETF前一日净流出4.504亿美元，创6月24日以来最大单日流出，《CLARITY法案》程序性投票又以50:49被否。BTC能扛住这些利空守住7.5-7.6万支撑区，反而说明下方买盘接得住。 加息落地+监管短期受阻，利空集中释放，市场正式进入“验证支撑”阶段。 二、BTC：7.65万横盘是蓄力还是消耗？ 家人们注意一个细节：BTC在美联储加息落地后一度升至76,663美元，但随后回落至7.65万附近窄幅震荡，买卖挂单在现价附近持续堆积，波动明显收敛。 清算地#SaudiPipelineRepairExpectedToLowerOilPrices
The east-west oil pipeline that was shut down due to an attack
Is expected to restore about half of its capacity within a few days and fully recover in about six weeks
No reports yet confirming actual resumed flow
With supply concerns easing, oil prices have pulled back from highs
On September 16, WTI fell about 3.2% to around $102
Brent dropped below $106
This is the first significant decline after the recent shock
The previous day, physical cargoes were still in demand: Oman’s premium to Brent was nearly $24
A three-month high, with the pullback occurring after the premium peaked
Trump is scheduled to discuss post-war arrangements with Gulf leaders next week
So my judgment is
This looks more like a premium pullback, not that supply has been fully restored
Watch the progress of resumed flow and whether the situation truly eases
If progress is not realized, oil prices could add premiums again at any time
$CL $BTC #oilprice #MiddleEast$ETH needs a catalyst to catch up — a fee spike, a reversal in flows, or a sign that $BTC has already made its move.
Hope isn’t a catalyst.
If $ETH only starts moving after BTC is already stretched, you may simply be buying leftover beta at a less attractive price.
Watch the trigger, not the hope. 📊
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserveBTC 77298, it broke through. I stared at the screen, hand on the mouse, torn about whether to chase.
Two voices in my head: one says to get on board quickly after the breakout, or else miss out again; the other says, did you forget the lesson from last time you chased a breakout and got buried? There's a huge resistance at 78000, can it really break through?
In the end, I didn't move. I'll wait for a pullback to 77000 before deciding, with a small 5000U position and a stop loss at 76800.
After losing 200,000U, the biggest change isn't that I've gotten better, but that I've learned to wait. Never hold a position without a stop loss, but more importantly—don't act when it's not the right time to act. $BTC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% $BTC no longer behaves like it did in 2021 or 2022.
Realized volatility is lower.
Dangerous leverage has been drastically reduced.
The large treasuries withstood a 50% drop without forced liquidations.
But the price remains trapped below its institutional cost basis, and ETF flows turned negative at key moments.
The risk has changed shape: it is no longer the violent collapse of before.
Now it's time to work on patience
#CLARITYActPathForward $SPCX $xSPCX are still favored, the box range should fluctuate between 135-185, blindly buy spot below 150, Starlink's coverage area is expanding, including airlines continuously signing contracts, all of which are ongoing cash flows.
Also, about ZEC, it's very exaggerated, many traders are shorting it, so I think the possibility of it rising is very high, after all, nothing fuels a short squeeze better. Enter directly at the current price of 1500, stop loss at 1300, take profit at 1800. Rough operation.
The live trading is closed, even genius traders with 200 million will fall, let alone ordinary people, blindly trusting books is worse than having no books.
Also, my view on spcx
⚔️ If you want to go long now
I would divide the positions into three tiers:
① Chase long directly near 155
* Risk: relatively high
* Because it's too close to the previous high of 156.90 and the 1D BOLL upper band.
* Not a particularly comfortable position to chase the rise.
② Observe again after a pullback to 153.5–154.5
* This is a relatively critical short-term area.
* If it pulls back and then stands back above 155, you can watch for an upward breakout.
③ After breaking through 156.90
* If 1H/4H truly stabilizes above 156.90, the upside targets can be:
* 158.6
* 160
* Only then will there be a more obvious breakout trend upwards.
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #汇丰上调SpaceX目标价，长期估值分歧加剧 Americans spent $215 million to build a machine that marks a turning point in quantum computing, which is the quantum race.
Many say it's aimed at Bitcoin, but more precisely, the real threat is to the old addresses from Satoshi Nakamoto's early days that have exposed public keys.
Glassnode calculated in May that 6.04 million bitcoins (30.2% of the total issued supply) already exist in outputs where the public key is visible on-chain.
If quantum key cracking technology becomes practical, these bitcoins will become the clearest attack targets, meaning their private keys could potentially be exposed.
What are the consequences? No need to say, the market will definitely collapse.
It's not that there's no solution, there is one: the community can fork and directly freeze these coins to solve the problem, but once frozen, decentralized consensus will collapse, and the market will also be in chaos.
The reason Americans spent this money on this is because these computers need at least 100 logical qubits and must be able to perform hundreds of millions of reliable operations.
You see, Bitcoin uses elliptic curve cryptography to prove who has the right to spend bitcoins.
A sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor's algorithm can derive the private key from the public key.
This is its use case and principle, but the government is not doing this to attack Bitcoin; it is being forced by traditional national security and military-industrial chains.
It just so happens that Bitcoin's old addresses with exposed public keys fall within the scope of application, so the answer is: it could pose a significant risk to Bitcoin. ZEC Hits New All-Time High, NU7 Upgrade Expectations Draw Attention
$ZEC has reached a new all-time high. Amid the lively market, voices of skepticism have also emerged. The founder of F2Pool bluntly stated that in the project's first four years, 20% of block rewards went to the founding team and early investors, collectively taking 10% of the total supply, which makes it hard to call the issuance fair. The current price surge is not purely driven by technical narratives; expectations for an ETF, hardware wallet collaborations, and short squeeze combined have temporarily overshadowed the controversies surrounding the project itself.
$ZENT rose 11% simultaneously, but this is a follow-the-trend move driven by the privacy sector rally, without independent positive catalysts. Riding the sector's momentum, once the funds retreat, the speed of decline could be equally significant.
The market thus raises a core question: if privacy is truly Zcash's moat, why is shielded transaction addressing not the system default, and why do the vast majority of assets remain in transparent addresses?
In this round of market activity, funds are betting on the NU7 upgrade expectations, hoping the protocol will further enhance privacy capabilities. However, we need to distinguish narrative from fundamentals; rallies driven by sector hype often experience huge volatility. Privacy coins have relatively small market caps, so capital inflows and outflows can easily cause sharp spikes. Trading should avoid blindly chasing highs.
Market observations do not constitute investment advice $COTI's 26% surge this round, which side is the capital really on?
The answer lies in the funding rate: a negative rate of -0.0025% indicates shorts are still paying to hold positions, while the price has already risen above MA5 (0.023484) and MA20 (0.02174). This is a typical scenario where shorts are passively getting hit. But don't rush to chase — the MACD histogram is still negative (-2.176e-05), and the RSI at 56.4 is only moderately bullish, indicating the bulls haven't fully taken control yet. A 44% amplitude over 30 candles means a wick could appear anytime, potentially wiping out high-leverage long positions. The greed index is 56, showing sentiment is warm but not extreme, so capital is more likely to choose a pullback to accumulate rather than forcing a short squeeze.
My judgment: short-term bullish, but only enter on a pullback. Entry reference is 0.0217–0.0225 (MA20 support coinciding with the current lower price, Bollinger lower band at 0.0171 as an extreme defense line). Take profit 1 is at 0.0248 (near previous highs, just below the Bollinger upper band at 0.02636); take profit 2 is at 0.0263 (Bollinger upper band, a shift from negative to positive funding rate could easily trigger short covering). Stop loss is set at 0.0208 (a valid break below MA20 would break the bullish structure). If the funding rate quickly turns positive and the price stagnates, it indicates crowded bulls and a decisive exit is needed.$ZEC has no previous highs, meaning there is no trapped selling pressure above, so when the price rises, no one is in a hurry to sell to cut losses. The fuel for this rally is actually the shorts' own stop-loss orders; when the price pushes up a level, a batch of short positions is forcibly closed, and the closing of these positions turns into buy orders.
From a trader's perspective, the risk of shorting under this structure is asymmetric. The more shorts are squeezed, the stronger the momentum pushing the price, until the shorts admit defeat and exit, at which point the pushing force disappears. Those who are passive are the ones who haven't stopped their losses yet.
Therefore, what really needs to be watched is not the price, but the funding rate and open interest. When the funding rate turns negative and open interest starts to decline, it indicates shorts are withdrawing, and this squeeze is nearing its end. Conversely, as long as shorts are still adding positions, the chain reaction is not over yet.
#ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注 $ZEC Thinking back, when BTC just broke the previous high, I was so excited I went all in, but eight out of ten times I got stopped out by a wick.
Now BTC is at 77298, back at this level. I take a deep breath and don't make a move.
Last time it broke out like this, I chased in and got hit by a wick back to 76500, stuck for two weeks. Since then, I've set a rule: don't chase breakouts, wait for a pullback near 77000 to buy.
Small position of 5000U, stop loss at 76800. Losing 200,000U taught me: holding back from chasing is more effective than any technique. $BTC #Withdrew from Kraken in April, deposited back in September, 1651.82 BTC, earning 15.21 million.
In five months, a complete turnaround.
I stared at this number for a long time, and my first reaction wasn’t envy, but—why didn’t he just hold on?
Isn’t the logic of long-term holding just "wait a little longer"?
In the end, he waited until the amount reached 126 million and chose to cash out.
This move is more honest than any trading signal.
Retail investors are still debating how the cycle will go after the halving, but the whales have already voted with their feet.
Of course, it could also be just portfolio adjustment, maybe switching to something else, or simply feeling comfortable with this position.
But clearing out all 1651 BTC, leaving no base position, is a signal I don’t like.
If such large-scale inflows continue to appear on Kraken later, then it’s not just one person’s matter.
Keep an eye on it.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $BTC $ZEC was pumped so much that some shorts entered the market trying to get rich quick, with the vast majority using leverage above 20x. Watching the market maker's pumping tactics, they raised the price by two to three points in one go, waited for the shorts to cover their positions, then pumped another three points to directly harvest the profits.Don't be fooled by the 24-hour -1.37% bearish candle; the load-bearing system of $ENA is not collapsing but undergoing a very narrow foundational settlement. Current price $0.08, daily retracement only 1.37%, which in construction terms is just a slight template adjustment; what really deserves attention is the short-term RSI having dropped to 30.1, just one steel reinforcement layer away from the oversold zone, while the long-term RSI remains steady at 51.6, indicating the main beam is still near the neutral axis with no plastic hinge formed.
The Bollinger Bands resemble construction survey data: short-term price is at the 3rd percentile, only 0.1% from the lower band, almost touching the support scaffolding, with 2.2% room to rebound to the upper band; mid-term price is at the 14th percentile, 1.4% from the lower band and 8.3% from the upper band, a typical bottom structure slope-finding process—first compact the backfill soil, then talk about upward slope. The signal to buy is not because sentiment has warmed, but because the price has been pressed near the foundation slab, narrowing risk exposure.
Trading plans cannot be made on a whim; they must be laid out according to key points. Entry is set at $0.08, 2.8% below the current price, equivalent to embedding the footing into old soil layers rather than erecting columns on loose soil; first target $0.09, 5.1% above current price, corresponding to the first ring beam; second target $0.09, 8.3% above current price, representing the upper frame node; stop loss $0.07, 13.1% below current price, once breached, it means the foundation slab's buoyancy resistance calculation has failed, requiring formwork removal and redo, not just relying on surface decoration to hold.
📈 Long:
Entry: $0.08 (current price -2.8%)
Take Profit 1: $0.09 (+5.1%)
Take Profit 2: $0.09 (+8.3%)
Stop Loss: $0.07 (-13.1%)
Currently, $ENA's blueprint is intact, the load-bearing walls have no cracks, only a retest and compaction is missing. The short-term RSI at 30.1 and the Bollinger lower band at 0.1% distance have already compressed construction errors to the limit; if it can't hold here, all subsequent ecological narratives are just facade renderings. Structure waits for no one; a breakdown means formwork removal, standing firm means topping out.🔥 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | THREE DIFFERENT ENGINES
$BTC → Macro liquidity + institutional flows
$ETH → Settlement + capital infrastructure
$SOL → Execution + high on-chain activity
$BTC reacts first to rates, liquidity, and institutional positioning.
$ETH captures structural demand through its broader financial stack.
$SOL thrives when users, capital, and on-chain activity accelerate.
Same market.
Three different engines.
Three different demand mechanisms. Who understands this? The $ZEC market rally is really getting crazier the more you watch it.
The price keeps surging, while the whales keep moving chips out of exchanges. One address withdrew nearly $23 million worth of coins in a single day, and four addresses combined moved close to $46 million. New wallets are clustering to accumulate, and the on-chain data is getting more intense by the minute.
Initially, there was concern that ZEC might quickly pull back after such a sharp rise, but the on-chain data gave a contrary signal—the higher the price goes, the more large chips are transferred from exchanges to new wallets. This is interesting. Usually, a pump means hoarding on exchanges for easy dumping; this time, the fiercer the rise, the more active the outward transfers. The spot available for easy dumping on exchanges is shrinking, and supply is tightening continuously. The real issue isn’t how high the price is, but that the spot supply structure is quietly tightening.
As long as this continuous withdrawal of coins doesn’t stop, the spot supply structure in this rally won’t weaken easily. The tighter the supply gets, the bigger the potential upside.
Back in 2021, during that on-chain accumulation rally, the price rose and exchange balances dropped. Many thought the price had risen too much and would correct, but after the spot was locked up, the price actually went up significantly again. What really suppresses the market isn’t valuation, but the chips that can be dumped at any time.
For this $ZEC rally, the price is surging, withdrawals are frequent, supply is tightening, and the structure is more worth watching than the price.
Keep an eye on whether the on-chain withdrawals stop. As long as large chips keep moving to new wallets and exchange spot continues to decrease, the rally won’t weaken easily. But if withdrawals stop and large chips start flowing back to exchanges, then caution is needed. For now, follow the on-chain data.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% $BTC $ETH ZEC Consecutive Days of Strong Rally Market Analysis
Against the backdrop of overall market volatility and the failure of the crypto bill vote, ZEC has shown an independent trend, rallying strongly for several consecutive days and significantly outperforming mainstream coins like BTC and ETH. This round of increase is not a broad market rally but a structural market driven by the privacy sector narrative, on-chain supply contraction, and capital competition. However, it has a strong short-term speculative nature, and the risks should not be underestimated.
From the news and fundamentals perspective, ZEC uses an optional privacy zk-SNARK architecture, which offers greater regulatory tolerance compared to privacy coins with mandatory anonymity. Grayscale's submission of a ZEC spot ETF application has brought institutional entry expectations to the market; meanwhile, the network completed the Ironwood security upgrade, fixing zero-knowledge proof vulnerabilities and addressing the market's biggest technical concerns, thereby restoring capital confidence. A large amount of ZEC has been transferred into the shielded pool, passively reducing circulating tradable chips and creating supply contraction. Coupled with the block reward reduction after halving, the supply-demand structure supports this round of the market. Even though the US crypto bill vote failed, the market has begun to reprice the long-term value of privacy assets, with capital shifting to this niche sector for hedging and speculation.
From the capital market perspective, this rally shows obvious short squeeze characteristics. During the previous long-term sideways phase, the market was generally bearish on privacy coins, accumulating a large number of short positions in derivatives. After the price broke through key resistance, short positions were concentratedly liquidated, and passive buying continued to push the price up. However, the rise is mainly driven by short-term speculative funds rather than large-scale long-term institutional capital, making it a theme rotation market.
Technically, multiple consecutive large bullish candles have opened an upward channel, with short-term moving averages in a bullish alignment, and bulls fully dominating the market. But after continuous rallies, the RSI has entered the overbought zone, with abundant short-term profit-taking and gradually emerging overhead resistance from locked-in positions. If capital relay is insufficient, a rapid pullback is likely.
Outlook: ZEC is a highly elastic niche coin, with its market highly dependent on sector sentiment. Regulatory risks in the privacy sector persist long-term; the EU has already announced restrictions on privacy coin trading by 2027, which is a long-term overhanging negative factor. The short-term market is a theme-driven speculation and is not suitable for chasing highs. Going forward, the key focus is whether capital can continue to relay. If sector enthusiasm fades and high-level chips are cashed out, a sharp correction will follow.BTC is currently around $76,744, with MACD weak, EMA showing a weak golden cross, consolidating in a key range, resistance at $76,811, support at $76,565. ETH is currently around $2,464, EMA golden cross indicates short-term strength, but RSI at 70.89 is close to overbought, facing resistance at $2,472, caution needed for a pullback after a rally. $BTC $ETH
In contrast, ZEC has surged 3x in a month to above $1,500. The bullish logic is very strong: ETF approval expectations, protocol upgrades, institutional entries like Paradigm, and the 2028 halving narrative have triggered FOMO and a short squeeze. However, a huge "expectation gap" hides risks: ZEC's market cap is comparable to L1 public chains like Sol, but real usage metrics such as active addresses have not grown accordingly, and RSI is as high as 87, extremely overbought.
Overall, BTC and ETH face resistance and overbought pullback pressure in the short term; ZEC is a typical "narrative-driven" short squeeze. Buy on expectations, sell on reality. If subsequent data proves it is just capital rotation, the bubble burst risk is very high. The current game is very difficult; avoid blindly chasing highs and closely monitor real on-chain adoption data, DYOR. $ZECWhat kind of temperament does PONS have? It just shorted and keeps pushing up. $PONS
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
Babala opened a short at 0.69, and the current price of OKEx perpetual is already near 0.74.
This position is currently at an unrealized loss, nothing to pretend about.
I chose to short at 0.69 because PONS rose too fast in a short time, and after the price reached near a new high, the divergence between chasing funds and profit-taking will grow.
But I underestimated its current strength.
PONS is not just randomly pulling up without support. It is a token issuance platform on Robinhood Chain. Recently, on-chain activity, platform fees, and the buyback and burn mechanism have all provided a narrative for the rise.
Additionally, with OKEx spot just launched, new funds entering mean the price is still in a high-volatility discovery phase. Shorting at this time is essentially trading against the sentiment; you can't assume it must fall immediately just because it "rose a lot."
Next, watch around 0.75.
If it only spikes and then falls back below 0.70, that indicates real selling pressure above, and the short position might continue targeting around 0.66.
But if the price holds above 0.75 or even breaks through 0.78, then it’s not just a normal pullback after a spike, but a new round of short squeeze, and the original shorting logic needs to be reassessed.
The short at 0.69 is still on for now.
This short is not betting on the PONS project going to zero, but on a cooling off of sentiment after a rapid rise.
However, it seems sentiment has not cooled yet, and babala is heating up www BTC suddenly surged to 77298, up 1.41% in 24h, just breaking the previous high. Everyone is shouting about the breakout, but what really matters is the second-order effect.
First order: Price breaks the previous high, sentiment turns bullish.
Second order: After the breakout, profit-taking is inevitable, and the trapped positions at the 78000 round number will also exit. So the first push to 78000 will most likely be rejected, and only after a pullback to 77000 confirmation will the real directional choice be made.
I'm not chasing longs now; I'll buy again after the pullback to 77000. Small position of 5000U, stop loss at 76800. Don't be emotional, a breakout is not a reason to chase, pullback confirmation is the opportunity. $BTC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% The news is all rubbish, don't bother looking. BULLA is currently around 0.1036. Since the visual model timed out, let's purely follow the order book logic. This position is right at the lower edge of the previous dense trading zone. If the bulls want to hold, they must increase volume here. The volume hasn't picked up yet, indicating the main players are still watching, and retail investors are cutting each other. 0.10 is a psychological barrier; breaking it will accelerate the decline, holding it will give hope for a rebound.
I just opened the security booth window for some fresh air. A water truck passed by outside, wetting half the road. The market is like this road—directionless.
In terms of operation, do not chase at the current price of 0.1036. Wait for a pullback to the 0.098 to 0.100 range. If a lower shadow appears and volume shrinks, you can lightly try going long, with a stop loss at 0.094, first take profit target at 0.112, second target at 0.118. If it directly breaks below 0.094 with volume, reverse to short, target 0.085, stop loss at 0.098. Remember, now is not the time for heavy positions; keep contract positions under 5%, leverage no more than 5x. In this market, staying alive is more important than making money.
$BULLA
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？
@OKX星球 This ZEC, I feel like I'm solving a math problem, trying to find a high point that no longer exists, which is very difficult. Looking for patterns from the ratio of each pullback after a rally, including how previous points like 1295 and 1398, which had relatively large shorting profits, were formed. Everyone can refer to this.
Using 250 as the low point and 688.60 as the high point before this year, the range is: 688.60 - 250 = 438.60
Multiply 438.60 by specific ratios to set some order placement reference points during the unlimited upward rally. This is only a technical calculation and should not be taken as investment advice. Trying to catch the top or bottom is very risky, so combine with the market situation to see if these positions show the form of a wick that is pulled back and recovered. Once broken through, strictly set stop losses.
Expansion Ratio Target Price
2.382 1294.75
2.618 1398.25
3.000 1565.80
3.618 1836.85
4.236 2107.91
5.000 2443.00 #ZEC enters the top ten, institutionalization process accelerates SEC 于 9 月 17 日发布 Release No. 34-106402“创新豁免”，允许符合条件的机构在公链上，通过 AMM 流动性池进行受监管的代币化美股交易，试点期限为 5 年。 核心条件包括： • 必须是美国实体； • 智能合约部署在公开、可审计的无许可公链； • 代币化股票必须保留真实股票的分红和投票权，排除纯合成资产。 这意味着传统美股交易基础设施，正在探索向链上迁移。 更值得玩味的是，CLARITY Act 两天前以 49:50 未能推进，SEC 随后通过监管豁免先行试水。 市场表现也说明了资金关注点的差异： BTC 约 $76,944，24 小时上涨 0.97%； ETH 约 $2,465，上涨 1.64%； DeFi 板块整体上涨近 7%，UNI 单日涨幅约 15%。 BTC 是储值、抵押和流动性锚点。 但如果未来代币化股票真的大规模进入链上，结算层、智能合约和 AMM 基础设施，谁来承载？ 这可能才是 ETH 需要重新定价的长期叙事。 $ETH $BTC $UNI$ZEC 大瓜。顶级VC Paradigm公开披露持有ZEC
Paradigm是币圈最有分量的老牌风投之一，很多牛逼项目背后都有它。联合创始人Matt Huang在X上发帖，就一句：我们持有ZEC。消息一出，ZEC直接窜了。这个月ZEC涨了约202%，同期BTC才涨19%。之前Paradigm只是投资ZEC的开发团队，大家以为它投的是项目；这次明确说拿了代币，性质完全不同，是机构真金白银下场持仓
ZEC的核心卖点是零知识证明，能隐藏转账地址和金额，是隐私赛道的老牌巨头。顶级机构公开站台，说明资金开始重视隐私叙事。但另一面也得想——ZEC前期已经涨了这么多，这时候放出消息，有没有可能是利好兑现？涨了这么多，不说跌完，跌一半也不是没可能。而且从8月19号拉升以来，它根本没走过像样的大回调，这个位置追进去，心里没底
机构站台是真的，但时机值得警惕。利好公开的时候，往往也是情绪最满的时候
之前多少项目都是机构一喊单，散户冲进去，结果成了接盘的那批。消息本身没错，错的是进场的位置
先观望。不敢追多，也找不到做空的机会，那就别硬做
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% $BTC $ETH $ETH wants to catch up with $BTC, but market sentiment alone is not enough.
What really matters are the catalysts:
① ETH ETF funds turning back to net inflows
② On-chain fees and network activity significantly rebounding
③ BTC consolidating at high levels, funds starting to spread to ETH
④ ETH firmly holding above $2,450 and testing $2,500
Latest data shows that on September 16, the US spot ETH ETF had about $224M net outflow, while BTC ETF also saw about $296M outflow; ETH briefly dropped below $2,400 before rebounding to around $2,460.
So now, the more important thing is not guessing when ETH will catch up, but waiting for fund flows and price structure to truly synchronize.
If $ETH waits until $BTC has already risen to $80K+ to accelerate, the cost-effectiveness of chasing in might be different.
Don’t chase hope, wait for the signal. 📊
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #ETH #BTC 🚨 BTC FACES A $2B+ OPTIONS EXPIRY TODAY.
More than $2B in BTC options are set to expire, with max pain around $77.5K — almost exactly where BTC is trading.
With spot sitting near max pain, today’s expiry could create a short-term positioning reset and make the post-expiry price action more important than the expiry itself.Clearly, the market is rebounding, so what are the people going long on BTC and ETH afraid of?
Prices are going up, and the unrealized profits in accounts are increasing, but many bulls remain anxious.
It's not that they don't see the upside, but there's an invisible Damocles' sword hanging overhead; with every rally, the anxiety only grows heavier.
The five major fears in the minds of bulls
1. The Fed's liquidity cudgel
The biggest worry now is the interest rate meeting and rate expectations. Once inflation data shows resilience, rate hike expectations will return. When U.S. Treasury yields rise, all risk assets come under pressure.
What bulls fear most is not the rate hikes already implemented, but the oscillating expectations: sometimes rate cuts, sometimes tightening again. This back-and-forth causes sharp volatility in BTC and ETH. Even if the trend is upward, a single big negative news candle can wipe out short-term profits.
2. The shadow of regulatory optimism falling through
The failure of the CLARITY Act to pass has left a deep shadow in bulls' minds.
Many previously saw the bill's passage as the key to institutional capital entering the market. Now that key is temporarily gone, and everyone understands: the path to compliance will be prolonged, and the timetable for large-scale institutional entry is unclear.
Without new incremental funds continuously entering, the current rebound is easily interpreted as a battle of existing funds, which could at any time be a bull trap.
BlockBeats news, on September 18, according to TradingBeats monitoring, a large ZEC short position holder (0x362a) consecutively stopped losses 7 times from last night to today, totaling about 5.196 million USD, with an average buyback price of about 1484.4 USD, realizing a loss of about 2.161 million USD.
It was found that before this round of position reduction, the address held 15,784.87 ZEC short positions, with a scale of about 23.519 million USD. After reducing about 22.2% of the position this time, it still holds 4 times the full position, with an average holding price of about 866.9 USD.
The current remaining position value is about 18.241 million USD, with an unrealized loss of about 7.593 million USD, a loss rate as high as -285.2%. The total of 7 realized losses and the unrealized loss of the remaining position reaches about 9.755 million USD.
According to calculations, the estimated liquidation price before the position reduction was about 1508.9 USD; after the reduction, it shows 1550.64 USD, an increase of about 41.8 USD. The remaining short position is still only about 4.4% away from the estimated liquidation line.
This address currently retains a buy market stop loss triggered at 1550 USD, with a trigger price only 0.64 USD lower than the estimated liquidation price, a gap of about 0.04%.
The 1550 USD price level is the most prominent liquidation wall for ZEC across all Hyperliquid, gathering about 20.4 million USD. Within about 500 USD above and below the current price, other visible liquidation walls are all about 5 million USD or less, less than a quarter of that level. $ZEC The probability of a rate hike in October has exceeded 55%, it's time to reassess this rebound now
The market is preemptively trading on whether the remaining rate hike will be in October or December. Regarding the current BTC rebound, I tend to interpret it as position adjustments after the event has settled
• 10/2 Nonfarm Payrolls
• 10/14 CPI
• 10/15 PPI Before these three dates, short-term moves may still be driven mainly by technicals and liquidity
So the current price action is better understood from several factors:
• The FOMC outcome has been finalized, releasing the first round of event risk
• The 75,000 level has not been broken further, shorts are starting to take profits
• Price has returned inside the previous consolidation range
• The dollar and US Treasury yields have pulled back somewhat after the FOMC spike
• The market is shifting from "event-driven trading" back to "data-driven trading"
Short-term trading strategy is clear: trade liquidity key levels with stop-loss, avoid turning point dates
$BTC
Upside: 76550 / 76750 → 77400–77800
Downside: 75,000 → 74,000 → 72,640
$ETH
Upside: 2480–2510 → 2580
Downside: 2370 → 2280–2300
$SOL
Upside: 101.3–102 → 105–106
Downside: 100 → 94.5–95
All three coins are capped at the first layer of the short-seller zone, the main pit below is further away. If the first layer cannot be broken, it remains a consolidation range
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% BTC broke through the previous high to 77298, let me share my own lesson: last time it broke through like this, I chased in and got trapped.
At that time, it had just broken the previous high, everyone was shouting long, I couldn't resist chasing, but ended up buying at the highest point, then a sharp drop trapped me for a week.
Now I've learned: don't chase the breakout. Either wait for a pullback to 77000 to confirm support before buying, or wait for a true breakout and stabilization above 78000. Small position of 5000U, stop loss at 76800, so losses won't be big if wrong.
Never hold a position without a stop loss, this is a lesson learned from losing 200,000U. The first pullback after a breakout is the best entry point. $BTC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% Japan's rate hike is not the main player, but it can still stab the knife
The rate hike has been priced in; the real thunder lies in the forward guidance—hawkish bias is the starting gun for a short-term sell-off. But don't overestimate it: the Bank of Japan's influence on Bitcoin is far less than the Federal Reserve's. The 2.5 rate hike expectation has long been chewed up and swallowed by the market, causing ripples but not a tsunami.
There are only two long-term steering wheels: the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace and U.S. Treasury yields. Japan? Just a disturbance causing volatility, nothing more.
A darker variable lies in oil—JPMorgan has given up predicting oil prices, the U.S.-Iran conflict has not eased for half a year, inflation remains sticky, and recession is delayed; this is the long-term looming cloud.
As for the market: the candlestick charts are drawn by the house for arbitrage. At this stage, it's not about rise or fall, but about who gets worn down first—when patience runs out and leverage is maxed out, the knife will fall. Why does the crypto market always pump in the morning?
It's not a coincidence, it's a script.
After the US stock market closes, macro expectations, ETF subscriptions, and institutional portfolio adjustments all pile up to be realized during the Asian session. Early morning Beijing time picks up the baton from the US market—overnight positive news, overseas market sentiment, CME gaps, all layered into the opening price.
The secret weapon is liquidity: retail investors just waking up in the morning see green and FOMO, their emotions are easiest to ignite; market makers have the lowest cost to pump, a single spike bursts the shorts, triggering a chain of liquidations that push the price even higher.
Remember this rhythm—morning pumps are to create space for selling throughout the day; the real direction is set when the US stock market opens at night. Those chasing highs during the day are mostly carrying the bags for others. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been withdrawn for seven consecutive trading days
Cumulative outflow has exceeded about 1 billion USD, with about 296 million USD outflow on Wednesday alone
On the token side, ZEC and UNI are still surging, but according to CoinDesk data, the channels have been withdrawing for seven consecutive days since September 8, with a cumulative outflow of about 1 billion USD. On Wednesday alone, about 296 million USD flowed out again. Bitcoin's current price is about 76,600 USD, still some distance from the September 4 high of about 82,300 USD. Among the CoinDesk 100, 94 are rising. On the crypto stock side, Coinbase fell about 4.4% on Thursday, and Robinhood fell about 5.5%.
A reminder to everyone: a lively market does not equal channel inflows. While altcoins are rising, Bitcoin ETFs are still being withdrawn. Everyone is definitely more concerned now whether the two channels align.Here's a counterintuitive take: BTC just broke past its previous high, and most people's first reaction is to chase the long, but I actually think we should be cautious.
Everyone is shouting that it has broken through and is heading to 80,000, but have you considered how many trapped positions and stop-loss orders are stacked at the 78,000 round number? Every time it reaches this level, the chance of a wick is very high.
Right now it's at 77,298, just over 700 points away from 78,000. I'm not chasing; I'll wait for one of two scenarios: either a direct breakout and stable hold above 78,000 with a pullback before entering, or a pullback to the 77,000 support before buying in.
After losing 200,000 U, I realized: nine out of ten who chase after a breakout get wicks. No rush, the market is not short of opportunities. $BTC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% $DOGE Dogecoin: Pushed back again
DOGE was rejected again in the $0.090–0.092 range, falling back to around $0.0813. The first resistance is at $0.084–0.085, and support lies at $0.079–0.080. The highs keep getting lower, indicating a weak structure. Meme coins are indeed not favored in a rate hike environment.
FIL: Still the brightest star
FIL continued its recent strength, rising 7.02% in 24 hours with a trading volume of 11.3 million USDT. The MA5 crossed above the MA20, signaling a mid-term bullish trend. However, the core reason for this rise is not that FIL itself got stronger, but that the fear and greed index is at 56, in the "greed" zone. After BTC stabilized, funds began rotating to old-school coins for catch-up gains. FIL, as a veteran in the storage sector, became a beneficiary. Still, caution is advised when chasing short-term highs. $BTC $ZEC #美联储10月再加息概率破55% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 While $BTC was absorbing macro shocks, $SOL activated the new transaction format that triples the amount of data per operation and is preparing to lower slots to 250ms
Also: nearly 400 million in Real World Assets inflows in 30 days, a US bank choosing Solana as the default network for stablecoins, and industrial robots starting to operate on-chain.
The market is still watching the chart while the infrastructure moves several steps ahead.
#SECCFTCOnchainRules The first opportunity I seized
was an all-in, but not entirely so
20x full position, but it took about a week to build the position, selling low and buying high along the way to place the cost line in a very safe spot. The rest of the time was completely left to time.
Held for a month, finally taking profits in batches around 97 (the reason for building the position in batches shows the closing price was 93).
The logic is actually very simple: it was a judgment on the US-Iran war. At that time, it was already a low point, and the whole market expected an agreement to be reached, but from many signs, it was clear it wouldn't be achieved (no need to elaborate).
Even now, looking at the oil price drop, there is no factual support, so shorting still requires caution. I just don’t chase the tail anymore.
There’s a rumor online that an A9 got liquidated in this rally, which feels a bit regretful. The market is ruthless, no matter who you are. We can’t just short because it’s risen too much or go long because it’s fallen too much. There will always be a few opportunities. I hope you and I can both seize them.