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今天盘面其实挺适合冷静算一笔小账。 BTC 还在 7.5 万美元附近反复，ETH、SOL 也跟着回撤。更关键的是，比特币 ETF 出现约 4.5 亿美元级别流出，监管投票受挫、长仓清算、降息前预期摇摆，全都叠在一起。市场现在不是简单的“看多看空”，而是在重新给流动性和现金流定价。 但普通用户最容易忽略的，往往不是大新闻本身，而是新闻过后自己的钱会怎么被卡住。 很多人一看到回撤，第一反应是补仓、等反弹、看支撑位。问题是，你接下来 24 小时到 7 天要花的钱，不会因为你还没想清楚方向就暂停。AI 会员该续还是要续，代码助手、云服务、设计工具、团队账号该扣还是会扣，购物预算和礼品卡也不会等行情站稳。 最尴尬的场景是：账户里明明有资产，但临到 29.9 美元的 AI 订阅、50 到 100 美元的购物额度，才发现这笔钱还在投资路径里。于是又要临时换资产、等确认、找支付方式、处理失败回退。金额不大，折腾感很强。 我现在越来越觉得，回撤日最该做的不是立刻判断自己是不是看错了，而是先把“确定会花的钱”从波动仓里拎出来。 交易资金可以继续承受波动，稳定余额可以留作机动，但订阅和消费预算#数字资产信息合规受关注 The material framed this as "the industry's compliance boundaries becoming clearer." But what’s truly worth noting is how they were caught. On 9/15, the U.S. Department of Justice charged two former Robinhood engineers—they used the company’s internal token listing announcements to open perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid before the tokens were listed, each profiting over $50,000. They executed more than 20 trades, splitting funds across multiple wallets, using small batch trades, and transferring funds via cross-chain bridges. ▪️ They were caught not by internal audits, but on-chain: Hyperliquid’s order book, positions, and timestamps are all public. Independent analysts had flagged those wallets even months before the indictment, ahead of the listing announcements. ▪️ One wallet cluster even opened short positions just hours before Robinhood’s quarterly earnings release. The disagreement isn’t about whether decentralized exchanges are regulated, but about "anonymous" and "public" being two sides of the same coin. They thought they could hide on a chain without a central authority and no KYC; ironically, this chain records every transaction with timestamps accurate to the second. Those trying to hide chose the worst possible place to do so. The real issue is: the token listing list is material non-public information within the brokerage, and that responsibility doesn’t disappear just because the orders are executed on-chain. This precedent is set, and the entire industry’s employee trading monitoring needs to be redone. Can a decentralized shell shield against traditional legal enforcement?$XTZ This position was held from 0.2988 all the way down to 0.2432, with unrealized short profit already reaching +372.15%. There has been basically no decent counterattack from the bulls along the way; every rebound was suppressed, and the 4-hour structure is getting weaker and weaker. Currently, the price is pressed below MA5, MA10, and MA20, with all short- and mid-term moving averages turning downward. The MACD bearish bars continue to expand, indicating the trend has not yet reversed. However, the KDJ has already entered a clear oversold zone, and around 0.2427 is another short-term low point. Chasing shorts here is a bit late. I will continue to hold my existing position, focusing on whether 0.2427 can be effectively broken. If it truly breaks down, there is more room below; if it quickly recovers above 0.25, then prepare for a potential oversold rebound. For profitable trades, what matters later is not courage but how to protect the profits. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ CLARITY did not pass, and the entire crypto market was hit hard $BTC fell below 75,000, and $ETH and altcoins also collectively dropped The result hasn't even been officially announced yet, but the crypto market had already fallen in advance Could it be that the market knew the result all along? I don't think we can jump to that conclusion. A more likely scenario is that the market had already been trading on the expectation that CLARITY would not advance, combined with BTC itself being weak, so the result only amplified the panic further. So is this drop really caused by CLARITY, or is CLARITY just taking the blame for the whole market? Personally, I lean towards the latter. A single voting setback may affect short-term regulatory expectations, but I don't think it is enough to change the long-term direction of Crypto development. $BTC spot ETFs also went through multiple setbacks and repeated struggles back then, so I am more focused on how the subsequent regulatory framework will continue to advance, rather than the win or loss of a single vote. Next, there is an even more important verification point—the FOMC. If after the FOMC, BTC can stabilize again around 75,000, then last night's panic might not be as severe as imagined; if it continues to break down, then what is really weighing down the crypto market might be more than just CLARITY. Next steps: I still believe we are in the early stage of a bull market, so I will patiently hold spot positions. For truly long-term valuable coins, I will continue to buy in batches during dips, but I won't fully load my position at once. #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #中东能源风险推高油价 Two energy lifelines are simultaneously facing issues, pushing oil prices up to $105-109, but what's more dangerous is that this is not a short-term spike. The Saudi pipeline repair will take 3 to 5 weeks, meaning high oil prices will likely remain locked in until at least October. WTI closed at $104.87, Brent at $108.53, both hitting multi-month highs. The Saudi East-West oil pipeline segment between Riyadh and Medina was attacked by drones on September 10, leading to a preventive shutdown of the artery with a daily capacity of 7 million barrels; repairs are expected to take 3 to 5 weeks. In the Strait of Hormuz direction, on September 13, an Iranian merchant ship was attacked near Qeshm Island, resulting in 1 death and 4 injuries; Oman talks have been postponed indefinitely. Transmission chain to the crypto market: The surge in oil prices is suppressing BTC through inflation expectations. On September 10, the day Brent crude broke $100, BTC fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,676. The core CPI in August rose 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding expectations; continued oil price increases mean the energy component of the September CPI will likely worsen further. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has been pushed to about 90%. BTC is currently around $75,900, significantly down from the early September high of $82,278. Core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, non-farm +162,000: Tonight's rate hike is almost certain, but the key is "how many times". I lean towards "only once," based on two points. First, the Fed's own dot plot has set an upper limit: the June SEP median shows rates at 3.8% by the end of 2026, dropping to 3.6% in 2027, and 3.4% in 2028, indicating a pattern of one hike followed by stabilization and then a decline, not continuous tightening. Second, most economists surveyed by Reuters still expect no change this month and rates to remain steady until the end of 2027. The divergence between market front-running and institutional caution itself is a source of volatility. The real variable is oil prices. Brent crude has returned above $106, and the transmission from energy to core inflation is just beginning. If supply disruptions escalate, the market will directly price in the next meeting rather than debate this one. $AEON Starting from July 13th this year, I set a very simple rule for myself: to publicly record my trading strategies. Regardless of whether they are right or wrong, whether they end in profit-taking or stop-loss, or even strategies that never entered the market, I record them all. Today, the 40th issue has been completed. Forty issues — not too long, not too short. If you just read one market analysis every day, it might seem insignificant. But when I put all 40 issues together and review them again, I truly realize that trading is completely different from what we imagine. Sometimes the judgment is correct, sometimes there are consecutive stop-losses; sometimes I see the right direction but fail to enter, and sometimes after entering, I hold on to the point of doubting myself. But this is exactly why I persist in writing trading logs. I don’t want to prove that I’m right every time, but to see exactly where I went wrong. Being wrong is not scary; what’s truly scary is not knowing why you were wrong after the fact. 1. Let’s first look at how “smooth” I was in the first 20 issues. The data from issues 1 to 20 is actually very impressive. BTC had a total of 20 strategies: 10 not triggered, 10 actual trades, 9 profitable, 1 loss, a 90% win rate. ETH also had 20 strategies: 10 not triggered, 10 actual trades, 9 profitable, 1 loss, a 90% win rate. BTC+ETH combined had 40 strategies: 20 no entry, 20 actual trades, 18 profitable, 2 losses, an overall win rate of 90%. The 90% figureThis $ADA trade continues downward. The short position opened around 0.2086 has now been pressed down to 0.1931, with unrealized profit reaching +371.52%. Many previously thought it should rebound after such a drop, but the 4-hour structure has not given a true signal of strength. The price has continuously broken below short-term moving averages; MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all trending downward, and the rebound highs keep moving lower; MACD remains below the zero line, with no clear end to bearish momentum. Around 0.193 is close to short-term support, so I won’t chase shorts here anymore and prefer to let the original position run. The real value of this trade is not shouting short after the drop, but entering the direction near 0.2086. The profit has already been realized, and the focus now is whether the 0.192 area can hold. If it breaks, there is room for further downward extension. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ 🚨Attention to those playing Meme! A new type of phishing scam is spreading: you think you're just doing a “Cloudflare verification,” but you might actually be opening the door to hackers on your computer.⚠️ According to monitoring, recently multiple popular Meme coin display pages have shown risky links. When users click on the token's official website or social media entry, they are redirected to a phishing page disguised as a “Cloudflare verification.” The page looks very much like a normal human verification, but the real danger lies ahead—it gradually tricks users into performing specific actions, ultimately causing the computer to download and run malicious scripts. Once compromised, attackers may target not only the Meme coin you are trading but also wallets on your computer, browser data, and on-chain assets. In plain terms, many phishing scams used to be about “tricking you into clicking links or signing authorizations,” and at least when the wallet popped up, you had a chance to notice something was wrong. This new method is more ruthless: it tries to get malicious programs directly into your computer. You think you're passing a captcha, but you might actually be opening the door for thieves.😨 Why are Meme coins especially vulnerable? Because the Meme market is all about “speed.” When a new coin comes out, many people's first reaction is to check the contract, visit the official website, find social media, and rush in to grab chips, fearing missing out on tens of points by just a few minutes. But the more rushed you are, the easier it is to overlook whether the link is genuine.Many people compare $CORE to the historical deep declines and subsequent rebounds of $BTC and $ETH, but the underlying logic of the two is different. BTC and ETH, as established public blockchains, have long-standing user bases, continuously evolving ecosystem applications, and a globally extensive developer community. CORE, launched based on BTC's hash power narrative, has planned numerous ecosystem sectors, but most solutions have limited implementation results. Early on, there was an incident where the cross-chain channel was suspended, related disputes entered legal proceedings, and some asset withdrawal issues remain unresolved to this day. The project's initial token release plan originally anticipated a total release period of 81 years. Now, the circulating proportion has reached 70.3%, with tokens continuously released periodically, adding new tokens to the market at intervals. At the current release pace, the remaining large amount of tokens can be fully released within just a few years. The continuous token release combined with net capital outflow results in persistent selling pressure on the market. Even if funds enter at lows, it is difficult to sustain long-term absorption of the continuous selling pressure. With the ongoing increase in token supply, a significant price rebound in the future would require very strong incremental capital support, which is quite challenging. Small-cap tokens have limited market depth, frequent flash crashes occur, and support levels can be breached at any time. Historical market trends can only serve as a reference; the fundamentals and token release schedules of different projects vary greatly, so the same rise and fall logic cannot be simply applied. BTC砸到76000以下，ETH破了2400，SOL也回踩97附近，三大主力连着阴跌，市场情绪肉眼可见的弱。 这波下跌的导火索其实很明确。$BTC $ETH $ZEC 先是美国参议院的CLARITY Act程序性投票，49票赞成、50票反对，没够到推进需要的60票门槛。这法案本来被市场当成美国数字资产监管落地的关键一步，结果投票没通过，加密市场立马开始释放风险。BTC一度跌破76000，ETH、SOL这些主流币跌得更凶。 再加上宏观环境也不配合。美联储利率决议马上要出，市场对加息的定价一度冲到90%以上，美国10年期国债收益率也短暂突破了5%。高利率、高收益率的环境里，资金对高波动风险资产的偏好自然会降下来，Crypto承压太正常了。 之前市场涨的时候，其实已经提前交易了一部分CLARITY Act能通过的预期。现在程序性投票没过，等于这个预期被重新定价。短时间内大量杠杆仓位被清算，下跌的幅度自然被进一步放大。 恐慌砸出来的低点，到底是趋势反转还是洗盘，还得等价格确认。如果BTC、ETH能在关键支撑位附近止跌，再放量反弹，这波恐慌盘释放完，反而可以留意低位承接的机会。#本周FOMC揭Recording this short position on $DOGE, with an unrealized profit of 197.77%, entry at 0.08267, current mark price 0.0794. Many Meme coins experience pulse rallies, and after the hype fades, selling pressure gradually releases. Observing the market at the time, the upward momentum was insufficient, so I chose to short according to my trading rules. The market steadily declined with fluctuations, multiple rebounds lacked enough buying support, a typical pattern of sentiment ebbing. For me, risk management is always the priority in trading. This position will rely on a trailing stop to protect profits and dynamically adjust the position size. Everyone’s trading system is different; this is shared only as a personal practical record, please do not directly copy the operation. #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 $BTC $BTC ETF single-day net outflow about 290 million; OI continuously declining, on-chain funds flowing to exchanges, indicating active deleveraging decisions. Around 76000 remains the dividing line tonight Support: 7.5-7.4 Resistance: 7.74–7.78, 8W View: Holding 7.5 is still pre-event consolidation; breaking below 7.5W likely to seek liquidity at 72600 No short chasing before FOMC, nor recommended to bottom-fish on the left sideA glance at 4 PM: XRP stuck, DOGE playing dead, UNI lying flat #This week's FOMC announcement, will the rate hike land? A glance at 4 PM, three coins with three different states. $XRP 1.37, bulls dominate with a 7 to 3 ratio, but the 1.46 to 1.47 barrier just can't be passed. The ETF collateral story has been told for a week. Bitcoin pushing toward 75000 is also stuck below the barrier; don't chase longs if it can't break through. $DOGE 0.085, purely an emotional coin, the 0.086 to 0.09 range is all trapped positions. If the market doesn't rise, it just plays dead and lies flat. Emotions won't pick up before the boot drops tomorrow night. $UNI 6.05, DeFi leader, market cap 3.7 billion, has been consolidating this round. New narratives have moved to L2 and meme coins; old DeFi is ignored. It’s like a blue-chip in the crypto market, not falling but also not rising, purely waiting for the wind. At 4 PM, XRP stuck, DOGE playing dead, UNI lying flat. Don't mess around before the boot drops tomorrow night; small positions only. #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 Many people seem to misunderstand how funds circulate in the market, immediately saying everything is priced in, which always reminds me of the classic Reddit WSB joke that even an alien invasion of Earth has already been priced in. In reality, before the interest rate decision is officially announced, a lot of funds won't move. No matter how you guess, the interest rate at the next moment is fixed; it won't change just because you or I expect a hike or a cut. Trading on expectations is more flexible marginal buying, but not all funds. The market can trade expectations in advance, but you shouldn't interpret "price in" as all future cash flows having already been completed ahead of time. A large amount of funds constrained by mandates, benchmarks, and rebalancing rules must wait until policies are actually implemented and the yield curve and risk parameters truly change before reallocating. Therefore, after the Fed's decision is released, the first wave of long-short battles will occur, and subsequently, more funds will follow. There will still be money to be made by following then. Guessing now whether rates will be raised or not, how many times, and whether the market will rise or fall after the hikes is only different from betting on heads or tails in that gamblers know they are gambling on luck, while we mistakenly think we have superior insight. $SNDK $BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ ETH Midday Market Analysis on September 16 [Image] On the 1-hour chart, the larger timeframe is in a consolidation range. Yesterday, the price steadily declined, dropping to the lower boundary of the consolidation range, which is also near the lowest point of the entire range. It then quickly rebounded. During this period, open interest and CVD fell together and then recovered. The decrease in open interest and the CVD turning negative indicate that many long positions were stopped out when the price reached this level. However, the price then rebounded, and both open interest and CVD rose simultaneously, indicating that the previously stopped long positions re-entered the market, betting on the continuation of the consolidation. In summary, there is indeed some support at this level. At the same time, open interest continues to increase, and CVD returns near the zero line, but the price has not yet risen. If the main force chooses to push the price up now, the momentum would be heavy and not the path of least resistance. Therefore, the price may experience a second dip, creating a small new low, followed by a quick rebound that clears out the hastily entered long positions. At that time, a reduction in open interest and a continued negative CVD would present a good buying opportunity. However, if the price breaks below the previous low with a surge in open interest and a sharp drop in CVD, combined with a long consolidation period, a strong one-sided move is likely to occur, and the strategy would then focus on shorting at highs. [The price may form a second dip followed by a quick rebound, which is a buying opportunity; if volume increases and the price breaks below the previous low, a one-sided move may begin (after a long consolidation period)] 醒来那一刻，ETH离我的止盈价只差3个点，然后它就回头了。 是不是很多人的单子，都死在这种"差一点点"上？ 我2390附近接的ETH，止盈挂在2450，结果最高就差那么一口气。更郁闷的是之前那笔ETH高位卖单，睡一觉醒来已经提前跑掉了，利润从指缝溜走。ZEC更夸张，2600挂的高位卖单，止盈等1050，等了好久行情就是不来。 但这次我没有只盯着自己的遗憾，而是注意到一件更有意思的事：ZEC的走势明显强过BTC和ETH，OKB、UNI这些老面孔也在悄悄走独立行情，底部结构比大盘稳得多。这不是普涨，是板块内部在挑人。 这就涉及一个关键判断：现在更像启动、延续、分歧，还是派发？我的感觉是，BTC和ETH在震荡消化，但部分老币种已经进入自己的节奏，强弱差距在拉大。市场不是在交易"全面风险偏好回来了"，而是在交易"谁的筹码更干净、谁的故事还没讲完"。这种阶段，资金会更挑剔，追高的容错率变低，回调时抗跌的品种反而更容易被重新定价。 偏多的路径是：如果BTC、ETH只是温和调整然后企稳，那些已经走出独立趋势的强势品种，很可能迎来第二波更猛的拉升，因为它们证明了不靠大盘也能走。风险则在于：一旦BTC出⚠️ Market Briefing for September 16: BTC bearish signals have clearly intensified, but avoid shorting before tonight's Fed announcement. BTC briefly dropped to around 75.9K, breaking the key 76K support. More importantly, institutional funds suddenly turned bearish: on September 15, US BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $450 million, including BlackRock IBIT -$162 million and Fidelity -$215 million; ETH ETFs also had a net outflow of about $142 million, temporarily invalidating the previously strong ETH fund logic. The macro environment is also bearish: the US 10-year Treasury yield is around 5%, Brent crude is about $108, and the probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike tonight exceeds 90%. The US Senate's failure to advance crypto regulatory legislation further dampens market sentiment. Current strategy: prioritize a wait-and-see approach. With the Fed leaning hawkish + 10Y yield holding above 5% + BTC breaking below 75.5K and failing to rebound to 76K, it is reasonable to target 74K/72K; if Fed bearish news materializes, 10Y yield falls back below 4.8%, and BTC recovers to 77K–78K, then consider reversing to go long. $SKHYNIX Hynix's plan to build a factory in the US is a positive development—does it mark the start of a new rally, or is it a peak signal of buying on expectations and selling on facts? Hynix's price action confirms the logic of buying on expectations and selling on facts. Before noon, funds speculated early on the positive news of the US factory plan, driving prices up; after the news was confirmed, sentiment was exhausted, lacking new catalysts, and bullish momentum faded. Looking at the market, there was a rise followed by a fall, currently consolidating around 1282, with Bollinger Bands narrowing and volume shrinking. Resistance is clearly seen at 1292-1300. Short-term outlook is bearish; if volume increases and the 1272 support breaks, the probability of a breakdown in the range rises significantly. It is recommended to try short positions on rallies, with support to watch at 1265-1258, and to wait for a clear direction before adjusting strategy. #日韩芯片股走强，AI存储周期能否延续？ DefiLlama targets the most easily overlooked pitfall in contract trading: the liquidity you see might not be accessible at all DefiLlama founder 0xngmi recently launched a very interesting new metric — Realized Perp Slippage. This metric addresses a very practical problem: previously, the most direct way to judge whether a trading platform had good liquidity was to look at the order book. The thicker the orders and the deeper the bid and ask, the better the liquidity seemed. But the problem is: the orders you see don’t necessarily equal the orders you can actually fill. DefiLlama’s current algorithm takes a “snapshot” of the order book just before a market order executes, calculates the theoretical slippage based on the depth at that moment, and then compares it to the final actual execution result. If theoretically there should only be a little slippage but the actual execution slips much more, it means that part of the so-called “liquidity” in the order book may have disappeared by the time the trade actually executes. 0xngmi also explained why they started focusing on this data: the team initially studied order book liquidity but later found that due to speed preference and other mechanisms, some market makers might withdraw their orders before the order is truly executed. The result is — the screen shows deep liquidity, but when your large order really hits, it turns out not to be the case at all. I think this metric is especially valuable for contract traders. $WIF No vision, can't hold on, the profit this round is as thin as paper, but I love it to death.😆 When the screen was full of green, WIF bounced back twice and then lost momentum, the support for WIF was clearly insufficient, and the volume shrank pitifully. I judged this rebound to be weak, and before the market fully started, I said: short it. It was worth the wait. From 0.1930 down to 0.1773, +409.32% in hand, not greedy, but definitely satisfying. First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% with the stop loss at cost price; if it goes down, let it keep working for me, if it bounces back, I won’t feel bad either. Don’t lose patience in the consolidation and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move. Chasing shorts now is easy to get shaken out by a rebound, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, there will be more opportunities later. $ADA $ZEC $ZEC 1174.5, 24-hour volatility 3.87%. The current price is above the dense trading zone, indicating a strong area. What should be most watched now is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (there have already been 4 related news items in the past two days, and the market is closely watching it)—a real rate hike puts pressure on risk assets, but the market often prices it in advance, commonly seeing a "rebound upon landing"; holding steady or a dovish stance is more likely to ignite the market. My bias is bullish—the bullish alignment and momentum have not faded, this combination usually still has strength. I give this judgment a 60% confidence, leaving room for unexpected news—the volatility is large, so the judgment must allow for flexibility. To be honest, I myself hold a short position on ZEC, with a cost of 1175.0, currently floating profit 0.0%, the trend is strengthening, reduce at 1104.7, exit at 1224.5, no additional positions; now is not the time to enter, wait for it to fall below 1104.7 before reconsidering.#稳定币基础设施再升级 Circle's Arc mainnet launched today, using USDC as gas, with BlackRock, Visa, and DTCC as validators. But last quarter, 95.2% of Circle's revenue came from reserve interest, with 32 trillion in settlements generating only 5.3 million in fees. The problem lies here: validator seats are issued by Circle, and gas is Circle's liability. This is not an L1, but a consortium chain—if 4 out of 12 validators collude, the network stops. The disagreement is not technical; it's whether Circle makes money by growing USDC or by keeping USDC on its own chain. The former wins with public chains, the latter competes with Ethereum for traffic. USDC stands at 74.1 billion, down 700 million net over 90 days; CRCL fell 11.4% yesterday. Expansion hits a stagnant supply—who will pay the price? DCENT App Wallet Abnormal Transfer: Don't Let Your Guard Down on Hardware Either IoTrust (DCENT) announced today on their official X: An abnormal asset transfer was detected on the App wallet side and is under urgent investigation. The preliminary statement is that only the App wallet is affected; the hardware device itself is reportedly not compromised. However, if you use the same mnemonic phrase to access both, you should quickly move your coins to secure hardware or other trusted addresses. You cannot claim exemption by saying "I mainly use hardware, so I'm safe"—sharing the mnemonic phrase means the door is still open. The scope and cause are not yet finalized, and fake customer service private messages are expected to intensify. Move your assets first; don't wait for the investigation to conclude. BR current price 0.2075, order book is thin, bid-ask spread widening, this is a typical vacuum zone controlled by the main force. There is a continuous three-level sell pressure stacked near 0.215 above, and dense buy orders supporting the bottom between 0.198 and 0.20 below. Funding rate is slightly negative, contract open interest has not expanded, indicating both bulls and bears are watching, whoever makes the first move will suffer losses. Just opened my thermos and took a sip of cooled tea, continuing to watch the market. On the four-hour chart, MACD fast and slow lines are converging and flattening, volume has shrunk to 30% of the day before yesterday, the turning window is within the next six to eight hours. No direction is determined yet, do not bet on one side. In terms of operation, aggressive traders can lightly try long positions between 0.203 and 0.205, stop loss at 0.197, target first at 0.213, if broken, reduce half the position and then look at 0.22. Conservative traders wait for a volume breakout above 0.216 before chasing longs, add positions if the pullback does not break 0.21. If it first breaks below 0.198 and does not recover within one hour, directly reverse to short, target 0.188, defense at 0.203. Remember, for such low liquidity stocks, position size should not exceed 5% of total funds, spikes can be deadly. I will continue to guard the gate, will comment if there is any market movement. $BZ #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 @OKX星球 $SOL Honestly, I myself think it's quite risky that this trade has lasted until now; luck has played a big part. Yesterday afternoon before the market started, every time SOL tried to surge, it fell short, and volume didn't keep up, so I signaled a short near 101.78, the structure was sufficient. Just checked the market, 96.73, +497.15%, the earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is really sweet. The market is something you wait for, profits are something you hold for. Being out of position isn't a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake. First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection, if it continues to drop, let the profits run. For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me, now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will signal immediately. $ZEC $ADA $HYPE is perp-DEX beta. OI, volume, and fee/buyback design keep it relevant; dry derivatives kill the premium. $ARB is L2 equity on ETH activity. Unlocks and sequencer economics matter more than one green candle. Watch it vs other L2s. $BNB is CEX + chain flow. Rarely leads manias or crashes. Use it as a “is retail still here?” check.Live update: $SUI short position floating profit 254.82%! Shorted at 0.7201 with 50x leverage, current mark price 0.6834. This operation is based on the obvious selling pressure at the 0.72 integer level, combined with capital outflow signals to open a short position accordingly. Short-term support is seen at 0.68; if broken, you can continue holding. It is recommended to take profits in batches to secure gains. $SOL $ZEC Oracle fell 3.07% to 140, the layoff email remained unchanged after 167 days, don’t be cheap meat before the FOMC. Just saw: The layoff emails on March 31 and September 14 have exactly the same wording. A net reduction of about 21,000 people (about 13%) in one year, with restructuring costs adding about $700 million. Q1 capital expenditure is about $28.5 billion, compared to about $8.5 billion in the same period last year, free cash flow is still negative. I think this is replacing people with computing power, not purely negative, but it’s not the time to go all in now. Before tonight’s dot plot release, treating Oracle as an AI discount stock is prone to a second hit. What to do: First watch the dot plot and statement, don’t chase the tech rebound. Invalidation condition: ORCL stabilizes again and QQQ reverses, then consider adding positions. Are you waiting for the dot plot to act, or treating Oracle as an AI bottom-fishing stock now? $ORCL $QQQ $SPY #ThisWeekFOMCReveal, will the rate hike land? #AI development anxiety heats up, regulatory discussions escalateThe market is bleeding heavily, BTC has been steadily falling and broke through 76,000, hitting a low of 74,955, but ZEC seems unfazed, still pushing upwards against the trend. $BTC current price is 75,593, down 1.19%, 24-hour high 77,348, low 74,955. The 1-hour chart shows a steady decline, VWAP pressing at 75,824, the rebound can't even reach the moving averages. The CLARITY Act failed and combined with FOMC risk aversion, bulls have no resistance. The short-term support is at 74,955; if broken, look for 74,000. I haven't changed my position, stop loss is set, waiting for the FOMC outcome. $ETH is around 2,400, sinking along with BTC. No independent narrative, the 2,400 level is repeatedly tested, with resistance from 2,450 to 2,480 above. ETF funds are still flowing in, but the market is very weak. I have no position, waiting for BTC to stabilize first. $ZEC is about 1,160, rising against the trend. While the market is falling like this, it stubbornly holds above 1,100, relying on three things: Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) has surpassed $500 million AUM two weeks after launch, holding over 550,000 coins; a whale moved 12,800 coins from Binance, OKX, and Kraken to a new wallet in one week; shorts have been continuously squeezed and liquidated. But F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun poured cold water, saying this is a "narrative short squeeze," not a fundamental improvement. I’m not touching it, but admit it’s tough. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The signals from the funding side are more intriguing than the news itself: the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 90%, yet $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC have not declined accordingly; instead, they have slightly increased. The key is not in the macro environment but in options positions—when bearish expectations are highly aligned, short positions become crowded in advance, allowing large funds to push prices, triggering stop-losses and liquidations, and short covering then becomes fuel for the rally. This "bad news doesn't fall" pattern is often seen before decision announcements to lure buyers: first wait for buying to enter and shorts to be cleared, then reverse to sell. If this logic holds, short-term volatility will be amplified, and after two-way stop-loss sweeps, the direction will become clearer. On technical levels, $BTC resistance is between 81,000 and 82,152, support at 75,000, with a break below targeting 73,900; $ETH resistance is 2,600 to 2,660, support at 2,502, with a break targeting 2,480; $ZEC resistance is 1,092 to 1,198, extreme at 1,320, support between 1,089 and 1,102. The observation condition is whether the price can hold above resistance after the decision with volume confirmation. Before the decision, two-way stop-loss sweeps are highly likely; a spike may not be a true breakout, so avoid blindly chasing longs and wait for confirmation signals before acting. Risk warning: macro and liquidity changes may increase volatility, please control your positions. The Clarity Act won’t pass, so $BTC is going to dump further.” “A rate hike is expected tomorrow with FOMC, so BTC is going to dump even more.” Little do they know, the market has already priced in those expectations. That’s why it’s dumping BEFORE the news is released. By the time the news gives the crowd a reason to sell, they are already selling into the very bids that mark the bottom.🚨 Goldman Sachs remains bullish on gold: $4000 could be a key support! Goldman Sachs' latest view is that the current pullback in gold looks more like an "extended consolidation" within an uptrend rather than the end of a bull market. What’s more noteworthy: Goldman Sachs sees $4000/oz as an important long-term support zone and believes that if gold prices fall back to this level, it could be a good opportunity to build long positions gradually. The core logic behind this is simple: 🏦 Central banks worldwide continue to increase gold holdings 📈 Gold is becoming an important tool for global reserve asset diversification 🌍 Geopolitical and fiscal risks are boosting gold’s safe-haven demand 💰 Ongoing official sector buying provides structural support for gold prices Goldman Sachs research expects central banks to purchase about 50 tons of gold per month on average in 2026, significantly higher than the roughly 17 tons/month before 2022. My view: The biggest variables for gold right now remain the Federal Reserve policy + U.S. Treasury yields + the U.S. dollar. A short-term continued pullback does not necessarily mean a trend reversal. Instead, focus should be on: $4300 → $4200 → $4000 The strength of support in these zones. If there is clear buying near $4000 and U.S. Treasury yields start to decline, gold could reopen its upside potential. ⚠️ But $4000 is an "important support," not an absolute floor price. #黄金 #Gold #美联储 #黄金价格 #投资 There is no clear direction at the global macro level, but the US dollar index has rebounded from a low, and expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back, resulting in a lack of incremental buying in risk assets. On the ETH order book, there is dense selling pressure around 2400 to 2430, with three consecutive failed attempts to break through, leaving long upper shadows on the naked candlesticks, indicating that bullish momentum has been exhausted. The short-term neckline is at 2380; once volume-driven breakdown occurs, it will trigger stop-loss orders on high-position longs, accelerating the decline. Just after closing a position, I was squatting by the roadside smoking, glanced at the transaction details, and noticed that active sell orders are clearly thicker than buy orders. The strategy is mainly to short on rebounds. Enter the market in batches between 2395 and 2420, with stop-loss above 2450, first take profit at 2325, second take profit at 2250. If it directly breaks below 2380 and does not recover within fifteen minutes, you can lightly chase shorts with a stop-loss at 2405 and take profit below 2300. Do not hold losing positions; keep leverage under five times, and exit if wrong. $ETH #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 @OKX星球 A green candle is information. A volume spike is information. A token unlock is information. A sudden increase in open interest is information. Exchange inflows are information. Stablecoin liquidity is information. Narrative rotation is information. But none of these signals should be used alone. The real edge comes from connecting them. Price + Volume + Liquidity + Tokenomics + Positioning + Catalyst That's where the picture becomes clearer. For example: If price breaks resistance but volume is$ARB Standard Chartered Bank gave a buy rating on its first coverage, quite a grand story, right? Now look at this 4-hour chart, from 0.083 all the way up to 0.1548, almost doubled, and Standard Chartered's research report is just belatedly arriving. Is this guiding you? This is clearly a retreat signal for the big holders who built positions at 0.08 earlier. Keep an eye on the sub-chart, the J value has hit 97, RSI6 soared to 81.99. Extremely overbought. For a V-shaped reversal of this level to reach this point, the integer resistance at 0.16 above is the strongest resistance. Chasing longs now is no different than blindly catching flying knives. There's an old saying in the stock market: "Good news is already priced in." Institutions enter and release research reports, retail investors rush in, and the result is often buying at a temporary peak. Didn't the drop from 0.20625 teach us a lesson? This time, riding the good news to surge, are you ready to bet it can break through 0.16, or are you planning to quickly exit while liquidity is good? Comment below, do you dare to get on board at this position? Circle's Arc public mainnet officially launched today: Chain ID 5042, Gas fees paid directly with USDC, natively supporting USDC/EURC cross-chain transfers. The list of founding validator nodes is quite long—institutions like BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, Standard Chartered, and others are included. Yesterday it was just a preview, today it went live. On the same trading day, Circle's stock price was hit due to the CLARITY procedural vote failing, yet Arc launched as planned, meaning while regulatory narratives suffered a setback, the product line is still moving forward. Don't rush to jump on the chain with random tokens. First, observe whether clearing and cross-chain functions work smoothly and whether institutional validator nodes are truly running before discussing the narrative. BTC is currently hovering around 76,000, and tonight there is the FOMC meeting in the US Eastern time zone, with over 90% expectation of a rate hike, but don't treat it as finalized yet. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 $BTC $ETH have landed.$ETH With the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate and the macro market holding a wait-and-see sentiment, Ethereum's short-term support around $2,500 was also lost, falling back to a defensive battle around $2,400. Judging from this market trend, Ethereum's response has several particularly noteworthy points: 1. Policy Negative Impacts First Born, Regulatory Clarity Delayed Again As the underlying ecosystem of smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi), the market had been eagerly hoping the Clarity Act would clarify the regulatory positioning of digital assets and give institutional funds the green light for large-scale deployment in the Ethereum ecosystem. Now that the bill has not passed the vote, it means the regulatory ambiguity period will continue, which is a short-term boost for Ethereum, which heavily depends on protocol innovation and institutional adoption. 2. Key $2,400 Defense Tug-of-War From a technical chart perspective, Ethereum previously accumulated considerable upward pressure in the $2,500 to $2,525 range. After market sentiment turned pessimistic and long contracts were liquidated, the price directly fell below the $2,500 mark. Currently, it is tightly holding near the support zone between $2,400 and $2,425, attempting to build a bottom. If this defense line fails, further liquidity backtesting may follow. 3. Tug of Ecosystem Value and Short-Term Sentiment Honestly, I am optimistic about Ethereum's long-term fundamentals (such as staking yields and Layer).$DOGE 0.07937. The 0.08 integer threshold has been completely crossed today. The news headline is quite hype: "Whale buys 240 million Dogecoins frantically, is a rebound coming?" Paired with the downward candlesticks smashing the screen one after another, the contrast is full. Is the whale bottom-fishing or just painting a rosy picture to cover their own sell-off? The answer is all written in the K-line. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the five moving averages are neatly aligned from top to bottom, like an impenetrable wall pressing down on the head, with the SAR coldly watching at 0.08351. The J value has dropped to 12, RSI6 is only 11.45, basically no different from an ICU ECG. This kind of extreme oversold data makes newbies shout "golden pit," but experienced traders know that oversold in a one-way downtrend is just a trap to fool those trying to bottom-fish. The previous low at 0.07835 is right underfoot. Those brothers who rushed in to bottom-fish after seeing the news are probably doubting their life choices now. At the 0.078 level, are you betting the whale can really hold, or do you think there’s an abyss below? If you hold coins, are you preparing to cut losses or hold on to the death? See you in the comments for the real answers.#Red Sea risk expands, $100 oil price reappears This time, oil prices breaking $100 is not just a Hormuz story On September 10, Red Sea shipping risks escalated again Houthi continues to attack vessels along the Red Sea and Saudi energy facilities Supply concerns extend from Hormuz to the Red Sea route Brent around 108, WTI once broke 104 US diesel average price reported $5.98/gallon on September 10, approaching $6 Trump said oil prices may not significantly fall until after the midterm elections in November Ceasefire and production increase arrangements have yet to materialize End-user fuel prices have hit the face Energy inflation stickiness will raise rate pricing, indirectly pressuring risk assets So my judgment is: stabilizing $100 oil is more critical than daily fluctuations Before geopolitical tensions subside, don’t mistake a pullback for a reversal $BTC $CL #crudeoil #RedSeaA 92% rate hike expectation has already been priced in. Can BTC stabilize and stop falling? My judgment is clear: short-term oscillations will repeat, with intensified battles between bulls and bears. The real driver of the market is not the rate hike itself, but the signals conveyed in the post-meeting statements. $BTC $ETH BTC has been pressured down from the high of 77343, dipping as low as 74967, and is currently rebounding to around 76000. The 76000 level is being repeatedly tested; after breaking below it, the price quickly recovered, showing intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears here. The market expects a 25 basis point rate hike in September with a high probability of 92%, and this negative factor has already been priced in. The daily chart shows a downward shift in the center of gravity. If the 76000 support cannot hold, further retests of the 74500-73500 range and even a dip to 73000 are possible. However, if the rate hike occurs and the statements do not continue to release hawkish rhetoric, it will mark the end of the negative impact. Once the price stabilizes above 76000, the rebound potential will further open up. Therefore, the key focus tonight is not the 25 basis point rate hike result itself, but the tone of the post-meeting remarks. Volatility in the night session will significantly increase. The market approach remains unchanged, continuously tracking market changes. Looking forward to watching the market together and observing the evolving situation quietly. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 Dropped back to 0.08 but big whales are gobbling up chips: Daily RSI slammed to 9, what big move is DOGE brewing? The entire meme sector has been cooling off recently, and DOGE has also retraced about 9%, lingering around $0.08. Although the market is cold, on-chain whales haven't been idle; instead, they are taking advantage of the low price to accumulate heavily. Data shows that large addresses have scooped up over 240 million DOGE in the past week, spending nearly $20 million. Currently, these funds hold nearly 19 billion DOGE, controlling 12% of the total circulating supply. As analyst Martinez said, big money daring to keep buying during a downtrend often signals that a bottom is forming. Besides whale activity, technical indicators have hit extreme values. DOGE's daily RSI has dropped to a rare 9, indicating deep oversold conditions. Usually, below 30 is a left-side watch zone, and an extreme value of 9 means short-selling momentum is nearly exhausted. Coupled with several weeks of net outflows from exchanges and chips accelerating to cold wallets, short-term selling pressure is being largely absorbed. On the chart, the price has completed a second retest at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, tentatively forming a potential cup-and-handle pattern. In the short term, watch the $0.093 resistance level; once a volume-backed breakout of the handle occurs, there's a high probability of a move toward the psychological $0.10 mark. The main force dares to buy heavily because of strong capital and a long-term cycle. But for ordinary retail investors, oversold indicators don't mean an immediate sharp rally; the choppy consolidation tests patience. Avoid blindly leveraging to gamble on a quick move; position control is key. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Floor price—do you dare to bottom-fish? When the CP price drops to 0.012, many people call it the "floor price." What does 0.012 mean? It fell from 0.074, down 84%. Judging by the price, it is indeed cheap. But cheap doesn't mean you should buy—there's often a basement beneath the floor. Let's look at the data first. The daily J value is 4.18, almost grounding. The 15-minute J value is 5.71, also extremely oversold. But note, the 1-hour J value is 47.48, the 4-hour J is 40.29—short-term attempts to recover, while the long-term cycle is still at freezing point. This cycle misalignment indicates that bearish strength is exhausting, but the bulls have not yet formed a converging force. Now let's look at the market market. 0.01209 placed a buy order at 184K, and 0.01212 pushed down on a sell order at 228K. Buying is supporting, selling pressure is holding. The bulls and bears have already locked up at this level. 0.01126 is the lowest point of this round and serves as a psychological defense line for many. Why don't you dare to buy? Because in the past two weeks, every bottom-fishing attempt has been buried. Those who bought at 0.03 are now losing 60%; Those who bought at 0.02 are now down 40%. Bottom-fishing has become a kind of punishment, so everyone has learned to wait. Waiting for a "certain" signal. But the real bottom never appears in certainty. It's not a big bullish candlestick to chase you, but rather slowly shifting chips from panic holders to patient ones in a sideways movement that no one cared about. The current CP is trading sideways at 0.012, with shrinking volume, and the J value is close to the ground—just like this stage. My judgment: hold 0.01126, that's it#贝森特听证释放多重信号 After watching the Bassett hearing, my first impression: the talk has three layers, with two layers of hidden blades. On the surface, it discusses IMF and World Bank reforms, but in reality—there’s anxiety over long-term US debt and mounting deficits. He first says "repo success," then downplays the $5,000 money issuance cost, which is about stabilizing capital and US debt demand. Regarding Iran, the shift from "control" to "ending the threat" is a prelude to financial warfare: cutting off funding chains, raising geopolitical premiums, and conveniently pushing oil prices and safe-haven flows toward dollar assets. The statement that a stronger yen "aligns with US interests" is the most toxic—it protects Japan from selling US debt, indirectly supporting long-term yields. No explicit call-out on China, but the fiscal side is responsible for stabilizing expectations, and the trade side for choking supply—clear division of labor: negotiating while pressuring, stabilizing while forcing. I believe Bassett is not dovish but a "transactional Treasury Secretary": he uses words to suppress yields instead of spending money, and leverages geopolitical shifts to deflect inflation contradictions instead of admitting tariff mistakes. Conclusion: don’t trust the bottom in US debt, don’t trust unilateral moves in RMB, don’t trust cooling in the Middle East—the signals he’s sending are all about positioning, not goodwill. $BTC $ETH DOGE volume still hasn't picked up; after touching 0.0825, no one stepped in, and it slid back to 0.080. Yesterday opened at 0.0841, highest 0.0861, lowest 0.0805, closed at 0.0817, volume 32.41 million. Today opened at 0.0817, highest 0.0825, lowest 0.0785, current price about 0.0801. Volume 28.26 million, Asian session is still early. Resistance above is between 0.0817–0.0825, with heavier resistance at 0.0861. Support below to watch is 0.0785; if it breaks, it’s likely to go lower. Don’t chase 0.0825 in the short term. For those already holding, watch if 0.0785 support holds; if not, reduce some positions. If volume shrinks, consider it as continuing to digest around 0.088, and wait for the European and American sessions to see if it can reclaim 0.0817 again. $DOGE $BTC 75800, are you ready to go long or short? At this position, I actually find it quite interesting. Because the negative news these past two days has come one after another. The CLARITY Act didn’t pass, BTC once dropped below 75,000; tonight it’s the Fed’s turn. But the question is: With so many negative factors, has BTC really collapsed? Not at the moment. It has already retraced a large portion from the high, and now it’s moving sideways in the narrow range of 75400–76100. So tonight’s FOMC meeting will very likely decide the next direction. First, let’s talk about regulation. The Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act was 49-50, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, which is clearly a regulatory negative. After the vote, BTC once dropped to around $75,000, and crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Circle also came under obvious pressure. But this is a negative that has already materialized. What the market is really waiting for now is: The Federal Reserve. The market has already highly priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, with the target range possibly raised to 3.75%–4.00%, and this would be the first rate hike since 2023. So what’s really worth watching tonight is not just: Whether they hike or not. But: What Powell says after the hike. If: Hike + dovish bias Then the negative has landed, and the market might first run a repair rally. If: Hike + more hawkish + long-term yields continue to surge Then we need to be cautious of BTC testing lower support again. Technically, I’m only watching a few levels: Upside: 76500–77100 78000 79500 Downside: 75400–75000 73200–74000 Especially 75000. This level has been tested repeatedly. So tonight, I actually don’t want to prematurely shout: "BTC is going up." Or: "BTC is going to crash." I want to watch one thing more: If the Fed really gives a hawkish signal, after BTC drops near 75000, can the bears continue to push it down? If yes, it means there’s still room below. If it can’t be pushed down, and even quickly rebounds... That would be interesting. Because it means: So many negatives can’t break through the key support, the market may have already priced in some expectations in advance. So my trading idea tonight is very simple: Above 75000, don’t rush to short. If it breaks below 75000 with volume, then look at 73200–74000. If it climbs back above 76500–77100, first watch for sentiment repair. As for whether it can hold above 78000 again, that’s a bigger question. No guessing tonight. Let the Fed speak, let the price make the choice. After all, the worst thing in trading is not being wrong. It’s when the market hasn’t chosen a direction yet, but you’ve already made the decision for it.The SOL market is extremely polarized, with no buyers above 100.7 and support at 95.8 below. Yesterday it opened at 102.0, peaked at 104.8, dropped to a low of 98.0, and closed at 99.4 with a volume of 86.27 million. Today it opened at 99.4, reached a high of 100.7, a low of 95.8, and the current price is about 97.3. Volume is 66.99 million, still not catching up to yesterday's 86.27 million. Resistance remains between 99.4 and 100.7, with heavier pressure at 104.8 above. Support is first at 95.8, and if broken, it’s likely to go lower. In the short term, avoid chasing both sides. If it can’t hold above 100.7, reduce positions; if it holds at 95.8, then consider further moves. Those already holding should watch 95.8 closely—if it doesn’t hold, reduce a bit and wait for volume to return in the European and American sessions before deciding direction. $SOL Although $AEON carries the popular narrative of AI agent payment settlement and has the financing backing of YZi Labs, its token distribution structure is frankly shocking. With a total supply of 1 billion tokens, only 188 million are currently circulating (circulation rate 18.8%), meaning the FDV/MC ratio exceeds 5 times, and over 80% of tokens are waiting to be unlocked and enter the market in the future. More critically, the team, foundation, and ecosystem fund control over 70%, and the top 5 addresses monopolize over 90% of the tokens, a typical single-player coin controlled by whales. At the end of August, it just experienced the aftereffects of a large 26% circulation unlock and sell pressure, compounded by macro risk-off sentiment in September. I decisively shorted 20x at 0.05841 (rebounded to the moving average resistance level); the current price is 0.05014, with a floating profit of +283.17%. From a technical perspective, AEON violently dropped from the 0.21 high after listing, recently oscillated with a bull trap between 0.09-0.11 before breaking downwards. The MACD formed a death cross, and the MA5 moving average is a strong resistance. The trading discipline is extremely strict: 0.055-0.058 is a strong resistance zone; if the rebound is blocked, continue shorting; the support below is at 0.045. For 20x leveraged positions, stop loss must be pinned at the 0.05841 cost line to lock in the no-loss baseline. Around 0.05, reduce one-third of the position in batches to take profits, and move stop profits on the remaining position to follow. The micro-exchange coin whales may pump and spike at any time; paper profits are not counted unless realized. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ A bit panicked. The US spot BTC ETF withdrew about $450 million yesterday, the largest single-day outflow since June. Fidelity's FBTC about $215 million, BlackRock's IBIT about $162 million, all net red. CLARITY ran out of money right after listing, institutions are not pretending this time.43-year-old Zhang Yiming has become Asia's richest person today. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, he topped the list for the first time with a net worth exceeding $105 billion, surpassing Indian billionaire Adani. When Bloomberg first tracked him in 2019, this figure was only $13 billion—an approximately sevenfold increase over seven years. Supporting this wealth are two curves: Going global: ByteDance's revenue in the first half of the year was about $120 billion, with overseas income accounting for over 30% for the first time (25% in 2024). TikTok Shop's GMV in the first half was about $50.3 billion, up 92% year-on-year. Time spent: ByteDance apps account for 40.9% of the top 50 app usage time among Chinese internet users, while Tencent's apps account for 29.1%—a year ago, the two were roughly equal. In July, the average monthly time per user on Douyin surpassed WeChat for the first time. Hongguo short dramas are the strongest: 168 million daily active users, with an average of 125 minutes per person per day. Two points to note: This is Bloomberg's book valuation based on private equity estimates; ByteDance is not publicly listed; WeChat remains the top single app with 19.3%, Douyin is second with 19.0%—ByteDance wins with its ecosystem, not a single product. (According to Bloomberg, The Information, Nomura/QuestMobile)
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