Orbit Post Sitemap
$BTC Daytime Sandisk and SOL Strategy Sharing:
$SOL: Today SOL followed BTC in a downward trend, currently priced at 97.1. All moving averages are above the price, creating a clear suppressive effect, and the bulls' counterattack strength is weak.
The key level is today's low at 95.7, which is also a short-term support; if broken, look for 93-92. On the upside, 101.5 is today's high, and only a volume-backed hold above this level offers a chance to target 105.
Currently stuck in the middle, neither up nor down, combined with Thursday early morning's interest rate decision, we won't speculate and will wait for it to move on its own.
$SNDK: Our short position opened at 1735 on Friday was fully closed with profit at 1560. From the recent price action, after bottoming and rebounding at 1507, followed by repeated consolidation, this round of decline is basically over.
Going forward, we will mainly focus on low-level long positions. Light long entries can be tried on pullbacks to 1515-1530. Those already holding long positions should hold their base positions and continue to look higher.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 昨天我写了一篇观察，说黄金 CPI 后从 4398 回落到 4273，但 OI 五日冲了 +27%、创近期新高——杠杆资金回来了，可资金流没跟上，我空仓等信号。 今天更新盘面，有个新变化挺值得聊。 价格：从 4273 反弹到 4334，但没过 EMA50 今天（9-16）13:30 快照：XAUUSDT 现价 4334，比昨天 4273 反弹约 1.4%。 反弹是好事，但看位置：EMA50 在 4365，现价还差 0.7% 没过。EMA20 在 4380、EMA200 在 4406，三条均线依然全在头顶压着。上市以来区间 3948 到 5625，现处低位约 23%。 也就是说，昨天的超跌反弹今天延续了，但连第一条关键均线都没摸到。短线偏空结构没变。 ## 新变化：OI 暴冲先降温 昨天最大的悬念是 OI：五日 +27%、最后一天单日就 +17%，看起来像有人在重仓对垒。 今天再看，这个数字回落到 +12%。 意思是：昨天那波杠杆资金的"暴冲"今天没继续，部分仓位在撤退或者被平掉。价格反弹、杠杆却在降温，通常有两种解读： - 对垒的一方认输了，仓位在出清； - 或者拉盘的资金本身也没底气$GRVT Don't blindly bottom-fish GRVT; the data shows that whales have no intention to pump the price
Whale positions inverted: retail long-short ratio is 1.11 (Binance) and 1.26 (OKX), retail investors are still biased long.
But the whale long-short ratio is only 0.7366, well below 1. This indicates whale funds are firmly shorting or hedging, while retail investors are blindly taking the risk.
Fundamental background: GRVT is a project that only had its TGE at the end of July (backed by on-chain Goldman Sachs and ZKsync), with a circulating supply of only 11.4%, and it has dropped nearly 40% in 30 days. The selling pressure from upcoming airdrop unlocks looms overhead.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC $ETH Crypto collapsing, bill didn't pass... Beijing time early hours today, much-anticipated CLARITY bill stuck at Senate door. Result: 49 for, 50 against, needs 60 — short by 11 votes. Not final veto, bill not legally dead, but little time left in Congress this year, pushing in 2026 very difficult. No wonder funds fled first. BTC daily low $75,039, now $75,990; ETH back to $2,407; SOL dropped to $97.4. 24h total liquidation ~$770M, longs hardest hit. Hardest hit is still altcoins. BTC has spot ETF +Is the crypto market about to collapse?
CLARITY didn't pass, and $BTC even briefly dropped below $75,000.
But what I think is most worth watching is not this voting failure itself, but a timing point:
Before the official results came out, BTC had already started to fall.
So the question is—did the market already price in the "voting obstruction"?
I don't think it means someone knew the news in advance. BTC was already weak, and the market might have just been trading on the expectation of failure ahead of time. The final failure of CLARITY seems more like a reason for the bears to keep pushing the price down.
In the short term, this will definitely hurt regulatory expectations for Crypto, but I don't think a single procedural voting failure can change the overall development direction of the crypto industry.
Don't forget that BTC spot ETFs weren't a smooth ride either; they also went through rejections, lawsuits, and repeated battles before finally landing.
So I still lean toward the view that the Crypto regulatory framework will continue to move forward, but when and in what form CLARITY will be reintroduced still needs to be observed.
As for the market, my judgment that we are still in the early stages of a bull market hasn't changed.
So my approach is simple: patiently hold spot assets, and for coins with real long-term value, continue to buy in batches on dips.
The more panic in the market, the more willing I am to slowly accumulate at low prices.
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
$ETH $OKB 1/ The Saudi East-West pipeline was bombed. This pipeline transports 7 million barrels of oil per day and is Saudi Arabia's only lifeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The Yanbu port inventory can only last 8 days.
Brent futures are at $107, and the European physical benchmark Dated Brent has surged to $122. Last week, the US Central Command commander convened a closed-door meeting in Germany with Israeli and Arab military officials to discuss war with Iran and the security of Hormuz shipping — even the military is preparing for war.
Oil prices haven't just "risen." They've "been cut off."
2/ Oil prices → inflation → interest rate hikes, this chain is locked in.
August core CPI was 0.3%, exceeding expectations, and PPI year-on-year was 5.4%. CME data shows a 92.4% probability of a Fed rate hike in September and a 44% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point hike in October.
BTC dropped from 82K to 75K, falling over 4% in 24 hours, with 120,000 liquidations. This isn't a problem with crypto itself. It's being crushed by macroeconomic forces.
3/ Don't just look at BTC. The real culprit is the US Treasury market.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.35%, a 19-year high. The 10-year yield is approaching 5%.
Global risk-free rates are soaring, rewriting valuation models for all risk assets. When you can get over 5% risk-free yield from US Treasuries, why put money into BTC with 60% volatility?
BTC isn't being hit by the Middle East; it's being pressured by US Treasury yields.
4/ The CLARITY Act, 49:50, failed.
It didn't reach the 60-vote procedural threshold. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong tweeted: "We can't wait for Congress anymore."
What does this mean? BlackRock and others can only go overseas, slowing their entry speed by at least half a year. This isn't just a "bill failing to pass," it's the entire industry's compliance clock being slowed.
Ironically — BlackRock's IBIT has increased its Bitcoin holdings by $1.08 billion in the past 20 days, raising its position to about 785,000 BTC. Retail investors are liquidating, institutions are bottom-fishing. Two destinies on the same candlestick.
5/ Short-term conclusion: 76K is the last defense line for bulls.
Around 76,000, there are whales actively buying at 77,600. But oil prices above 108 mean September CPI will likely continue to explode, and the probability of multiple rate hikes is rising.
At this point, reducing leverage is more important than bottom-fishing. Preserving your base position is more important than adding to it.
Wait for the panic liquidation after rate hikes — that will be the real opportunity.
$BTC $BZ $CL #中东能源风险推高油价 September 15, Washington. The Senate held a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.
The result was 49 in favor, 50 against. Ten votes short of the 60-vote threshold. The bill failed to enter formal consideration.
On the same day, news came from the direction of Tehran: the east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was attacked and shut down, and a ship in the Strait of Hormuz was hit and caught fire. Brent crude stood at $108.
Washington closed one door, while Tehran and Riyadh welded shut the windows.
First blow: regulation.
The CLARITY Act had been tossed around for months, with bipartisan negotiations and multiple revisions. What blocked it was not the technical details of crypto regulation, but the conflict of interest involving the Trump family's crypto business. Democrats wanted to add ethical clauses, Republicans said to push forward first and discuss later. It deadlocked.
Then came this vote. 49:50, it didn’t pass.
Coinbase CEO Armstrong tweeted heavily: "Congress can’t wait any longer." He said the SEC and CFTC have tools to set rules under existing authority and are expected to take serious action.
Ripple CEO Garlinghouse also spoke out, saying politely: "Even if the bill fails, crypto will not disappear."
But politeness aside, Congress is about to recess for the November midterm elections, leaving very limited room for the bill to be pushed again in the short term. On Polymarket, the probability of CLARITY becoming law has dropped to 5%.
Looking back five months later, what you thought was "regulatory uncertainty" today is actually the most certain thing for the next few years.
Second blow: macro.
The east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was shut down after an Iraqi drone attack. This pipeline transports 7 million barrels per day, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, and is the most important buffer when Gulf shipping lanes are under pressure. Now it’s stopped. Riyadh has not given a restart timetable.
Brent crude jumped to $108. Bernstein analysts are already shouting: oil prices could surge to $120 to $150.
Then what?
US August CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, core CPI month-over-month 0.3%, higher than expected, marking the largest monthly increase since April. The energy index rose 2.1% month-over-month, with gasoline contributing more than one-third of the monthly CPI increase.
CME FedWatch: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is approaching 90%.
Goldman Sachs changed its forecast from "no change" to "rate hike in September." JPMorgan changed to one hike in September and one in December. HSBC also revised its forecast.
The market-priced federal funds rate will rise to 3.75%-4.00%. This is the first rate hike in this cycle.
Oil prices rose, inflation returned, the Fed is going to raise rates. Crypto liquidity will be drained one more layer.
After the CLARITY vote result was announced, BTC dropped from around 79,000 to below 75,500, with a 24-hour maximum drop of about $5,000. Over $300 million in long positions were liquidated. Coinbase shares fell over 9%, Circle over 12%.
The stock side fell two to three times more than the crypto side. Why? Because Coinbase and Circle’s valuations included a whole "regulatory dividend" expectation. CLARITY died, and that premium went straight to zero.
BTC doesn’t have that premium, so it fell the least.
But that doesn’t mean it’s fine. The real impact is yet to come—the rate hikes will land, risk assets will collectively come under pressure, and crypto will be no exception.
A deeper issue: institutions are waiting, but can’t wait any longer.
DTCC, together with BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and over 50 other institutions, is already conducting live trading of tokenized securities. Nasdaq has received SEC approval to pilot tokenized stock trading. Ripple Prime has also joined DTCC’s tokenization working group.
These institutions don’t need CLARITY to get on-chain. But they need CLARITY to launch products compliantly and at scale in the US.
What does the shelving of CLARITY mean? They can only detour overseas or wait for SEC case-by-case approvals. Entry speed will be at least six months to a year slower.
Meanwhile, Washington’s political energy will be completely absorbed by inflation and oil prices. As the Fed is forced to raise rates to combat energy inflation, crypto legislation’s priority will continue to fall.
The crypto industry is being abandoned simultaneously by Washington and Wall Street.
CLARITY is dead. Oil prices are up. The Fed is going to raise rates.
But precisely at such moments—
The real builders will stay.
Those who rushed in just because of regulatory expectations never belonged here.
$BTC $BZ $CL #中东能源风险推高油价 📉$$ETH Latest Trend: Bill Setback Triggers Decline
Key Events
In the early hours of September 16, the U.S. Senate procedural vote on the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" failed to reach the 60-vote threshold with 50 in favor and 49 against, marking a major setback for regulatory framework development. ETH briefly fell below $2400.
Market Data
Currently, ETH is priced around $2404, down 0.80% in 24 hours, fluctuating between $2380 and $2520. The long-short structure is torn: the large holders' long-short ratio is as high as 2.26 and rising, indicating crowded longs; retail investors' long-short ratio is only 0.4754, quickly exiting positions. Institutional longs have lost counterparties, making downside risk prone to a cascade.
Key Levels
Resistance above at $2550 (50-week moving average, suppressing rebounds three times since August); first support below at $2380, with over $1.21 billion in long positions below $2405 awaiting liquidation.
Conclusion
The bill's failure is now a fact, and the market is digesting the negative news. It is not advisable to bottom-fish in the short term; focus on whether ETH can stabilize near $2380.
$BTC
$SOL
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC holding up better than ETH and SOL is relative resilience, not a strong market. All three are down, with the larger losses outside BTC pointing to weaker appetite for risk. With the FOMC call and oil risk in focus, I read this as a defensive market rather than a convincing case for a rebound.
Just my read, not advice.Before the rate decision hits, I’d rather lock in some profit than watch green PnL turn into another unrealized number. Paper gains don’t pay. Realized gains do. $ETH Capital is still flowing quietly, and if rates stay unchanged, risk assets could get another catalyst. But I’m not chasing the first candle—let the market confirm the move. My approach: reduce unnecessary risk, keep liquidity ready, and let volatility create the next opportunity. Patience isn’t doing nothing. It’s waiting for the rYesterday morning I woke up and checked $CP, $TRUMP and $DOGE. They had bounced close to my entry, but I was still slightly underwater. I told myself: "I'll check again later. Maybe the next move gets me back to breakeven." Then I fell asleep. 🙃 When I came back, the market had moved against the longs again. Instead of cutting the positions according to my original plan, I kept waiting for one more rebound. That small decision turned a manageable loss into a much larger one. What I originally wBrothers, $ETH has crashed to this terrible state, and you can't blame anyone else; it's a double whammy of capital and policy.
First, let's look at the latest news. In the early hours of September 16, the US Senate held a procedural vote on the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," resulting in 50 votes in favor and 49 against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, so the bill was dead on arrival. This means the crypto industry’s long-awaited clear regulatory framework has once again been played by those Washington politicians. As soon as the news broke, the market plunged: BTC spiked down to $74,900, ETH fell below 2400, and SOL, XRP, ZEC all dropped over 5%.
What’s worse is the capital flow. Just the day before the crash, the US Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $142 million in a single day, the highest in nearly 8 months. BlackRock’s ETHA alone withdrew $98 million, with Bitwise, Grayscale, and Fidelity all pulling out. Institutions precisely exited before the crash, while retail investors were still foolishly buying the dip.
Looking at the technicals, ETH surged from a high of 2487 but then fell back, hitting a low of 2357, currently around 2405, with a 24-hour drop expanding to 4.6%. The 24-hour trading volume was $19.3 billion, showing a volume-driven decline. The capital outflow is clearly stronger than BTC, with the ETH/BTC ratio falling as funds flow back from Ethereum to Bitcoin. The resistance zone above is 2425-2440, a short-term strong pressure area, and 2390 is a key support level. If it breaks below, it will test the previous low at 2357.
The bloodiest data is the liquidation figures. Nearly 120,000 positions were liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, totaling $670 million, with long positions accounting for $570 million. ETH is the most liquidated asset, with $301 million liquidated in 24 hours, including $203 million in long positions. At the moment ETH dropped from 2430 to 2390 in the early morning, $18.27 million in long positions were wiped out in one wave.
The current situation is: bill failure, ETF capital flight, technical breakdown, and longs getting slaughtered. I’m still holding my short, opened at an average price of 2472.21, mark price 2405.27, with a floating profit of 8.12%. Looking down first at 2390; if it breaks, then 2357, and further down near 2300 is the concentrated liquidation zone of $552 million in long positions.
Either it wipes them out in one wave, or it bottoms out and admits defeat. Waiting for good news, brothers!! 🚀
$BTC
$ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC Is Testing Who Still Wants to Buy
$BTC doesn’t need another sharp breakout to prove strength. The better test is what happens when sellers try to push price lower.
If dips are absorbed quickly and volume returns with the rebound, buyers are still defending the market. But if support breaks with expanding sell volume, that changes the structure.
For now, reaction to weakness matters more than chasing strength.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates $BNB — Still holding up better than most. Support: 700 / 685 Resistance: 730 / 760 Above 700, the structure remains range-bound. Lose 700, and the correction could accelerate. I’d rather hold the core than chase a breakout. $OKB — Still trapped between 108.5–116. Support: 108.5 / 105 Resistance: 116 / 120 The long-term X Layer narrative remains, but short-term price action is still tied to overall risk appetite. Before FOMC, patience > leverage. $HYPE — Highest beta, highest leverage sensitivityBTC and ETH Are Telling Different Parts of the Story
$BTC is still the market’s main liquidity signal. $ETH, meanwhile, shows whether that liquidity is spreading into the broader ecosystem.
When BTC holds its structure while ETH starts gaining strength with improving volume, market breadth is getting healthier. If ETH keeps lagging despite BTC strength, that tells a different story.
The next thing I’d track is ETH relative strength against BTC.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 LSK volatility 46.2%, dumped yesterday and pulled back today
$LSK is now 0.33 USDT, 24h +21.7%. The coin that took a hit yesterday is back to the top of the gainers list today.
24h low 0.2421, high 0.3674, volatility 46.2%, nearly half the range up and down in one day; trading volume 4.15 million USDT, ranked 35th in the USDT market, volume still not large. 7-day change +199.5%.
In the same period, $SOL 97.27 USDT, 24h -3.8%, $ZEC 1,157.23 USDT, 24h +1.2%, total market cap down 5% in 24h, LSK is moving completely on its own trend.
US prosecutors today charged a former Robinhood engineer for trading tokens before their official listing. The market is digesting this regulatory news, while LSK is purely a capital game.
Yesterday, the analyst just wrote about its dump, and today it pulled back. The K-line shows two big wicks up and down, but volume only ranks 35th. This kind of pullback is generally not chased by the analyst.
Don’t be fooled by the +21.7% gain, for a coin with 46.2% volatility, position sizing should be based on the worst wick. BTC and OKB Are Testing Different Layers of Demand
$BTC gives the broader market its liquidity direction, while $OKB reflects demand within the OKX ecosystem.
If BTC remains stable and OKB starts attracting stronger volume, that could show capital is moving beyond the market benchmark. But if OKB rallies without participation, the move deserves more caution.
The signal I’d track next: BTC stability + OKB volume confirmation.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 Crazy, crazy, everyone else is falling, but $ZEC still wants to rise. Are you tougher than others' bones??
BTC is down, ETH is down, the whole market is as green as a vegetable patch, yet ZEC, this monster coin, stubbornly pushes up against the trend, completely ignoring the flood outside. Looking at its bullish candle, I’m both angry and amused. Everyone else is diving, and you’re the only one pole vaulting?
Look at the long-short ratio: shorts account for as much as 73%, longs only 27%, retail shorts are extremely crowded. It’s precisely at times like this that you need to be careful—if the market falls but it doesn’t, either there’s a real whale supporting the price to accumulate, or it’s the last bull trap before a dump. If it can hold above the previous high, then it’s really tough; if it can’t break through, the correction will be faster than anyone else.
My FIL short position is making me drool, opened at 1.0125, current price 0.8079, +60% profit firmly in hand. I’ve suffered losses stubbornly holding ZEC before, almost liquidated from sleepless nights, now I’ve learned—don’t go against the market, and don’t get emotionally attached to monster coins.
Ladies, remember this: the harder it rises, the stronger it’s not necessarily; it might just be holding on. Don’t rush in to catch the red candle, set your stop loss well, surviving longer means more profit. Do you think ZEC is really strong or just a bull trap? Let’s chat in the comments!🧋💀
$BTC
$ETH
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Even after the spot market is on Niulai, some big players still spend about a million USD to buy—what does this reflect? Let's take a look at the data! September 16, 2026 #牛来 Data changes for top 40 holding addresses: Binance: 37 million inflows; gate1: outflows of 1.1 million tokens; gate5: outflows of 3 million tokens; mexc: outflows of 1.6 million tokens. Top 40 new entrants: 6 people in total, 4 transferring in, 1 increasing position, 1 person rising normally Top 40 people exiting: 6 in total, 4 transferring out of exchanges, 1 transferring accounts, 1 slightly reducing position; Top 40 increases: 2 people, 2 transfers in; Top 40 reduce positions: 4 in total, 3 reduce positions, One person transferred out, $Niulai Daily Highlights: Six new users joined the top 40 addresses, and four of them came from Binance. But the one who added positions on-chain was very strong, adding $850,000. When it dropped out of the top 40 addresses, only one person slightly reduced their position on-chain, while the rest moved to Binance. Only two people added positions in the top 40, and both transferred from Binance. No increase was seen on-chain. The four people who reduced positions in the top 40 sold a rough sum of about $600,000 in single kills. Also, for some reason, Binance's inflows are still so large. It's been some time since spot trading took some time. Some big players have spent nearly $1 million on-chain to buy in spot trading, proving that the chain volatility is still quite high. Overall, the market remains intact and appears relatively healthy. However, the data shows a strong cautious aspect, both insiders and outsiders are presentLast night, BTC crashed from 79,500 down to 74,900.
It pierced 75,000, spiked down, then recovered. Now struggling around 75,400.
Liquidations totaled $665 million.
This is not a correction. This is a triple kill.
First, face reality, don’t dream.
Kill one: Oil prices are crazy. Brent crude surpassed $106, once nearing $109.8 intraday. Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was bombed, cutting off a lifeline transporting 7 million barrels per day; Yanbu port inventories only last 5 to 7 days. At Hormuz, last weekend daily vessel traffic dropped to single digits. Bernstein warns oil prices could surge to $120-$150.
Kill two: The Fed is hiking rates. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, core CPI 0.3%, exceeding expectations. Market pricing for a 25 basis point hike in September jumped from 70% to nearly 90%. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.012% intraday, the highest since October 2023. JPMorgan even raised its 2026 rate hike forecast to two hikes.
Kill three: The CLARITY Act is dead. Senate procedural vote 49-50, not even close to the 60-vote threshold. Coinbase CEO Armstrong stated "we can’t wait for Congress anymore," shifting efforts to SEC/CFTC level.
Under these three kills, those fantasizing about a V-shaped reversal, wake up.
Key price levels, remember these numbers.
First support: $76,000. The low on September 10 touched 76,676 and held temporarily; yesterday’s spike to 74,900 was recovered. This is the current critical bull-bear dividing line.
Second support: $73,000-$74,000. The daily candle Fibonacci 78.6% level is at 72,620, the next real defense zone. If panic intensifies after CPI, this will be tested.
First resistance: $76,000-$76,300. A dense short-term sell zone, the first hurdle on a rebound.
Second resistance: $77,600. Only breaking this can we breathe easier.
Trend confirmation: $82,000. Only a daily close above 82,000 accompanied by positive ETF inflows signals a trend reversal. Yesterday ETFs saw a net outflow of $450 million, with Fidelity alone pulling $215 million. Don’t rush to call a bull market.
Position management, here’s the play.
Spot: Keep your base holdings, don’t add leverage at this level. If 76,000 is repeatedly tested but not broken, small additions are possible. But remember—the Fear & Greed Index just dropped from 69 to 51, shifting from "greed" to "neutral," panic selling is not fully released yet.
Futures:
→ Light long positions near 76,000 with stop loss below 74,500. The spike and recovery indicate funds are supporting below.
→ If it rebounds to 80,000-82,000, prioritize reducing positions rather than adding. That’s a resistance zone, not a breakout zone.
Altcoins: In an environment of high oil prices and stablecoin contraction, altcoin liquidity will be siphoned by BTC. BTC dominance is 58.54%, funds are not flowing into altcoins. Avoid heavy positions in low-liquidity altcoins at this stage.
The biggest risk you might have missed.
The failure of the CLARITY Act is no small matter. It means regulatory uncertainty will suppress institutional entry pace for a longer time. This marks a watershed from "enforcement-driven" to "rule-driven," but the tug-of-war over detailed revisions will last a long time.
In other words: no policy catalysts in the short term.
What to watch next? The Fed’s statement this week. With 87% of rate hike pricing locked in, the real focus is whether the statement frames this move as a "one-off hedge" or the "start of a new tightening cycle."
If the latter, 73,000 may not be the bottom.
$BTC $BZ $CL #中东能源风险推高油价 BNB Is Being Tested Beyond the Chart
$BNB has a deeper signal than price momentum: whether activity across its ecosystem can keep generating real demand.
When volume, liquidity and network usage expand together, price strength has more substance behind it. If price moves while participation dries up, the momentum becomes easier to lose.
The next thing I’d watch is BNB volume versus network activity.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates "Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue 44 Review of Issue 43: The short position on BTC at 79200-79800 ultimately reached the third target near 75000, and the short on ETH at 2565-2600 also touched the 2357 level last night. This round of short positions again largely met expectations. Next, I will share my views on Issue 44. Yesterday, the US Senate failed to advance the "CLARITY Act," causing Bitcoin to drop to around 74900 and Ethereum to nearly 2357 at its lowest, clearly impacting market risk appetite. Today's biggest risk is not in the market itself but the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tonight and the subsequent monetary policy press conference. Market pricing clearly leans toward a rate hike at this meeting. Therefore, today's trading must pay attention to this: The real market focus may not be "whether to hike rates," but "what the Fed says after the hike." If the statement and press conference signal a tightening bias, indicating possible continued rate hikes, while US Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen, then BTC and ETH may face significant resistance on any rebound. Conversely, if the market has fully priced in rate changes and the Fed's subsequent stance is less hawkish than expected, or even shows improved liquidity expectations, then BTC and ETH, which have already fallen, could see a rapid rebound. This is why today is not suitable for going all-in on any direction at the current position. Jiang Feng personally prefers to focus on shorting at rebound highs! For specific strategies, refer to the resistance levels above. 昨天我们把上涨行情看了一遍：价格向上运行时，多单跟随价格，空单承受压力。今天把画面翻过来——价格开始下跌时，哪边是顺势单？
先给结论：价格下跌时，空单是跟随价格的一边，称为顺势；多单是承受压力的一边，称为逆势。持仓结构没有变，变的是价格方向——方向变化时，顺势和逆势也会交换。
本文讨论的是多空双向运行中顺势与逆势的判断方法，不代表建议普通用户自行设置或修改平台参数。策略结构与参数属于平台预设规则的一部分，普通用户按默认参数运行即可，通常只需根据自身账户条件调整首单和杠杆。 一、下跌行情中的位置关系
价格向下运行时，空单方向与价格运行方向一致，浮动盈亏朝有利方向变化，这条路径顺着价格走；多单方向与价格运行方向相反，价格每往下一段，这条路径的浮亏就多一分，补仓条件可能被依次触发，路径向更深层级展开。
和昨天的上涨行情对照着看更清楚：同一个多空双开的账户，价格上涨时承压的是空单，价格下跌时承压的是多单。两条路径始终是那两条路径，变的是它们和价格方向之间的相对关系。
二、交换是怎么发生的
这里要抓住一个关键：顺势和逆势不是某一侧持仓的固定标签，而是路径与价格📂 20U Live Trading Record 066
💰 Principal: 20U
📉 Profit on this trade: Currently no position
✅ Total profit: +38U
📌 Current position: No position
Continuing to observe the capital flow on three chains
1. A certain whale withdrew 50,000 $ETH from Binance and immediately staked them
According to The Data Nerd monitoring, a whale address held 40,000 ETH a week ago, and 2 hours ago withdrew 50,000 ETH from Binance, worth about $93.6 million, and immediately staked after withdrawal. The total holding increased to 90,000 ETH
Withdrawing from the exchange and staking immediately without holding them in hand. This action itself shows the attitude
2. $BTC ETF had a net outflow of $450 million yesterday
SoSoValue data shows that Fidelity's FBTC had a single-day net outflow of $215 million, ranking first, and BlackRock's IBIT had a net outflow of $162 million. But looking at the longer term, IBIT has accumulated an increase of $1.08 billion worth of BTC in the past 20 days, while GBTC sold off $254.7 million in the same period. Overall there is an outflow, but funds are migrating internally from old trusts to new ETFs
3. $SOL fell below 100, whales are selling.
SOL current price is $96.76, down 3.68% in 4 hours. Whale AiMFH9 unstaked 53,194 SOL and sold all at $233 each, profiting about $3.2 million
At the same time, ETH whales are withdrawing and staking, and BTC ETF funds are migrating internally Overnight, the head of Anthropic publicly wrote that the expansion speed of AI has exceeded safe limits, and Elon Musk immediately agreed, with funds first withdrawing from the storage sector. On Monday, $SNDK fell nearly 5 points in a single day, hitting as low as around 8 points intraday. This seems more like a repositioning of holdings regarding whether the "computing power narrative" will continue, rather than a sudden change in the company's fundamentals. SanDisk just spun off from Western Digital in February this year, mainly operating NAND flash and solid-state drives. Last fiscal year, revenue exceeded $20 billion, doubling growth, with data centers contributing nearly $3 billion in a single quarter, about one-third of the company, driven by AI training and inference demand. Thus, the market began to ask: if new models are more memory-efficient, will storage demand be compressed; if safety concerns cause big companies to slow down data center construction, will order momentum loosen accordingly? These questions currently have no answers, and the boundary between a shakeout and bubble bursting is hard to distinguish. For the crypto market, sentiment around AI, DePIN, and computing power tokens often follows the US tech stock chain. If the latter continues to weaken, $FET, $RNDR, $TAO, and others may also come under pressure simultaneously. Attention should be paid to linkage rather than isolated judgment. Risk warning: The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your positions independently. Sudden adjustment in the crypto circle🔥
BTC dropped to 75,000-76,000, ETH fell below 2400, nearly 120,000 people liquidated, and $670 million in funds were cleared.
Trigger: The US CLARITY crypto bill procedural vote failed to reach 60 votes, regulatory benefits fell through. Coupled with the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 5%, high oil prices, and the approaching Federal Reserve meeting, the market shifted from easing expectations to high-rate risk aversion.
Logic: The crypto circle is a high beta risk asset, short-term driven by macro and US regulatory news.
Key levels: BTC must hold 75,000, ETH must hold 2380 to have a chance of rebound.
If Powell leans hawkish, altcoins will continue deleveraging; if dovish, oversold recovery will come.
Short-term avoid catching a falling knife, wait for the rate decision, deleveraging, then watch the trends of major coins and ETF funds.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#中东能源风险推高油价
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #中东能源风险推高油价
The energy risk in the Middle East continues to escalate, pushing oil prices to new highs again.
The market is no longer worried about a single oil field or a single shipping route, but about the entire Middle East energy supply chain facing multiple shocks.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains very sluggish; the latest data shows that only 4 vessels passed on Tuesday, far below the average of the past 10 days. Meanwhile, the east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia is damaged, affecting loading at Yanbu port. 
This means that the Saudi backup export route, which could bypass Hormuz, is now also restricted.
The result is:
Hormuz blocked
→ Saudi oil pipeline shutdown
→ Increased shipping risk in the Red Sea
→ Reduced global crude oil supply flexibility
→ Continued expansion of oil price risk premium.
Currently, Brent crude remains near $107, and WTI stays above $100. 
What’s more troubling is that the market is now starting to worry that supply disruptions could last for weeks.
If the Saudi pipeline cannot be restored in the short term and navigation through Hormuz cannot fully normalize, the crude oil market will face not a one-time emotional shock but a sustained supply gap.
This is especially sensitive for U.S. inflation.
Crude oil ↑
→ Gasoline, diesel ↑
→ Transportation costs ↑
→ Business costs ↑
→ Commodity prices ↑
→ CPI pressure ↑
→ Fed’s policy space constrained.
This is the most concerning aspect of the current oil price rise.
Because the market has just experienced stronger-than-expected PPI and CPI and the Fed’s renewed hawkish shift, if energy prices remain high, inflation could again become a key variable suppressing risk assets.
For BTC, the logic is also clear:
Sustained oil price rise → Inflation expectations heat up → U.S. Treasury yields remain high → Dollar strengthens → BTC liquidity under pressure.
Of course, the recent unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories has provided some buffer for oil prices, indicating that the supply shock has not fully translated into a spot market meltdown. 
So what really deserves attention next is not how much oil prices rise in a day, but:
① Whether Hormuz can resume normal navigation;
② When the Saudi east-west pipeline will be restored;
③ Whether Red Sea shipping risks will continue to expand;
④ Whether Brent can hold above $110 long-term;
⑤ Whether high oil prices will again push up U.S. core inflation.
In short: Middle East energy risk is shifting from an "oil price market" to an "inflation market." If supply disruptions persist, the next to be pressured may not only be crude oil but also global interest rates and risk assets. $BTC $ARB is slightly bullish in the short term, but don't chase it yet. The hardest part of ARB's rise is resisting the urge to prove yourself halfway up the mountain. Let's talk again after a stable pullback. Trading plan: Slightly bullish short term, but only trade on pullback confirmation or breakout confirmation. Trading advice: Consider buying after a pullback stabilizes between 0.1482–0.152; if it strengthens directly, follow after it breaks above 0.1596. Set stop loss at 0.146, take profit first at 0.1721, then at 0.1832. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC Recap. The known lower boundary of the consolidation zone is 7.6. Yesterday, after the first dip to grab liquidity, it quickly rebounded to 7.74. After the early morning bill vote, it fell below 7.6 again. Back to the chart. Currently, the 4-hour level is still relatively weak. The 7.6 liquidity grab point has become resistance at the 4-hour level. Then 7.73-7.81-7.96. After the first break below 7.6 yesterday, I entered the market as planned. The logic is to play the 7.6-8.25 consolidation zone~ Stop loss is around 7.4. In chart 2, 7.4 was previously a daily-level support/resistance flip zone. If it breaks below here, any long position must stop loss because the area below is quite empty. Subsequent support is 7.25-7. To summarize, my personal view as in the past week is that this is a high risk-reward position worth playing the long side. I am subjectively bullish and already in the position~ There is also a rate decision meeting early morning. If worried about large volatility or extreme moves, you can reduce position size or wait until tomorrow or next week after the market digests the rate hike—either stabilizing above 7.6 consolidation zone or breaking below 7.4—then make the next play. Trading advice: For intraday or smaller timeframes, with stop loss at last night’s spike tip, watch if 7.6 can be reclaimed and held. The target above is near 7.73 at the 4-hour level. Trading the consolidation zone, set stop loss properly. Reclaiming above 7.73 can push to breakeven. Above 7.8 can start taking profits in batches. Don’t mix different timeframes and perspectives~ Position size according to stop loss. Trade in a way that doesn’t affect your well-being.Brothers, get up. I took a quick look at the market. To be honest, I don't really think we'll see a straight one-sided trend today. Most likely, it will be a weak oscillation, repeatedly shaking people out before the news comes out.
There were several sharp drops earlier, and you can indeed see on the K-line that someone is buying, but the rebounds are weak and soft. It's obvious the bulls are just defending the market, not truly reversing the trend yet. Today, I'm watching only one position for $BTC — 75,000, and for $ETH, the range is 2350 to 2400.
The biggest uncertainty today is the FOMC tonight. The market has basically priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, with the probability almost reaching 90%. Plus, with US Treasury yields breaking 5%, oil prices staying high, and the US stock market under pressure, pre-market funds definitely won't move recklessly.
My own judgment is: the morning session will most likely be weak and oscillating, with possibly a small rebound, but any upward surge will likely be hammered back down. Unless BTC retakes 77,000 and ETH holds above 2400 steadily, I don't think the buying power has truly returned. Conversely, if volume increases and new lows are hit, don't just see it as a normal shakeout; it means the market is still pre-trading hawkish expectations.
To put it simply, don't guess the direction today. Just watch if the K-line can stop falling. The real big move will most likely wait until the news is released tonight.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 Crypto was supposed to be an alternative to the traditional financial system where the 'little guy' stands a chance, but in practice, it has turned into a mirror image of that very system—only with much less legal regulation and an even more brutal dominance of big capital. $TRUMP I didn’t make any judgment, just held on a bit longer, didn’t expect it to really show respect.
During the repeated fluctuations in the session, TRUMP’s every rally fell just short, the selling pressure on TRUMP was strong, and the trading volume was low. I didn’t chase the long, just warned that if it can’t rise, go short, don’t catch a falling knife.
From 1.963 down to 1.875, the short position yield was +224.14%, the timing was spot on.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection, let the profit run with further drops, and don’t panic on rebounds.
For stocks you’re not confident in, a glance keeps you sober, buying a lot is foolish. Have a strategy before the market, discipline during, and reflection after. If you haven’t gotten in yet, listen to me, now is not the time to rush, there will be more opportunities later.
$LAB $SOL Hidden Risks in Accumulation｜$HYPE Pullback and Consolidation, Beware of $1.2 Billion Unlock at Month-End💣
$HYPE
Since reaching a high of 89.60 on September 6, $HYPE has been adjusting for 10 consecutive days📉, currently priced at 77.2; down 3.9% in 24 hours, with a 7-day retracement exceeding 6%. After intraday high of 80.41, upward momentum weakened, bulls entering consolidation.
✅ Fundamental Support Remains
$75-80 is the core defense range for bulls.
Previous large unlocks accounted for only 4.4% token claims, with no team sell-off; the project team continues to support the price, burning $2.08 million tokens in 24h, with a total buyback of $379 million this year; Hyperliquid Strategies increased holdings by $29.65 million in a single day, institutions continue to accumulate.
💣 Core Risk Warning
On September 29, approximately $1.2 billion will be unlocked, 47% held internally, posing the biggest potential selling pressure risk at this stage.
📊 Technical Pattern
4-hour MACD oscillates near zero line with consolidation, bulls and bears balanced, the market is only in a pullback accumulation phase, no clear direction chosen yet.
🔮 Market Outlook
With market sentiment recovery and FOMC conclusion, a rebound to 82-85 is expected due to high elasticity;
If the $75 support is effectively broken, the retracement level will expand, targeting the $70 range.
💡 Trading Strategy
Short-term range between $75.5-80, stop loss set at $75.
Light positions can be taken to speculate on rebounds before unlock; gradually reduce positions approaching 9/29 to avoid impact from unlock selling pressure. A quick recap of yesterday
Long positions
1. No bullish engulfing signal at 2460, so abandoned the trade
2. At 2410, a pin bar appeared on the chart signaling a short-term long; reduced position after, kept the base position at break-even stop loss
Short positions
1. Set one condition: if it breaks below 2460 and fails to rebound above 2460, decisively short 🈳; reduce position at 2410, keep flexible base position
Set the plan, follow the conditions set in the plan;
When conditions are met, manually execute your plan;
To take profits, you have to be bold; to take losses, stand firm
Only trade real 🫵Two former engineers at Robinhood have been charged by U.S. federal prosecutors with commodity fraud and wire fraud. Prosecutors allege that before Robinhood Crypto announced the launch of new tokens, they used non-public information to trade related assets on Hyperliquid perpetual contracts; each profited over $50,000.
Perpetual contracts do not require actual token ownership; the information first affects the prices and positions in the leveraged market. Robinhood stated it has investigated and reported to law enforcement and regulatory agencies, maintaining a zero-tolerance policy for insider trading. For ordinary users, the key issue is not just "who knew first," but whether listing information can enter tradable markets before public announcement. The case is currently at the indictment stage, and final responsibility will be determined through judicial procedures.
#RobinhoodSeptember Summary: 15 days, 12 days with profits taken, 3 days with losses cut. Overall, the pace this month was fairly steady, but today's market really caught many off guard.
Market Situation: Regulatory cold shower, sentiment immediately collapsed
The procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold, ending in a 50:50 tie, so it cannot enter formal review in the short term. Once the news broke, the crypto market promptly dropped. Coinbase closed down 10.13%, Circle even worse, down 11.41%. BTC dropped to 75805, down 2.69% in 24 hours, ETH fell deeper to 2401, down 4.48%. In short, regulatory progress was blocked, and short-term sentiment fled first.
News: Whales are buying, ETFs are selling, two camps opposing each other
Here's the interesting part. Last week, Strive bought 469 BTC at an average price of $77,954, pushing their total holdings over 25,000 BTC. Bitmine was even more aggressive, increasing their ETH holdings by 27,180 in a single week, now holding about 4.9% of the global circulating supply. ETFs are flowing out, treasury companies are entering, two camps opposing each other. Who is right or wrong, time will tell.
Tonight is the real showdown
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and dot plot, followed by a press conference by Powell at 2:30 AM. The market is pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Deutsche Bank said something very key: if the Fed ultimately does not raise rates, it will be the "biggest dovish surprise" at a routine policy meeting since 1994. To translate: the hike itself is not the main point, the hawkishness of the dot plot is. No hike could trigger a rebound; a hike with a mild dot plot could give risk assets some breathing room; the worst case is a hike combined with a significant upward revision in the dot plot—that's the real knife.
Operational advice in one sentence: before the decision, don't heavily bet on direction. Both bulls and bears are waiting for that number, volatility could spike anytime. The direction is given by the Fed, not chosen by the market itself.
What do you think—will there be a rate hike tonight, or an unexpected pause? Discuss in the comments. $BTC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #OKX百万规划师 What do you think about when you are losing continuously?
"The next trade will definitely make a profit" "One more trade and I'll break even" — I've had these thoughts, and then lost 200,000U. The most dangerous thing during continuous losses is not the money, but the mindset: you start revenge trading, opening bigger positions and setting wider stop losses.
My solution: after 2 consecutive losses, force yourself to stop. Close the software, go downstairs for a walk, and come back when you are calm. If you still feel itchy the next day, stop for another day.
Currently BTC75622, bearish bias. My rule: if I hit stop loss twice today, I won't trade anymore today and will wait until tomorrow. Operation: light short positions above 77000, try long positions if 74896 stabilizes, 5000U per trade, always with stop loss, no holding losing positions.
Remember: when losing continuously, stopping is winning. $BTC #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 The $ZEC NU7 voting has ended for some time, with the ETF and privacy narratives still ongoing, and high-level chips starting to change hands repeatedly. Overall, it is in a state of governance + ETF + high leverage triple narrative overlay, which makes the price very elastic, while any weakening of these three lines may cause rapid price fluctuations. Ajian's observation:
Holding $1,100 indicates that the pullback is still controllable
Breaking through $1,158 is the only chance to retest $1,200
Falling below $1,100, first watch if funds are withdrawing from the privacy sector Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE top accounts are more long, position distribution is more short: top accounts long-short ratio 1.849, top positions long-short ratio 0.758; whole market accounts long-short ratio 4.539; price up 0.07%, position amount change -0.033%.
$SUI top accounts and top positions are both more short: top accounts long-short ratio 0.863, top positions long-short ratio 0.748; whole market accounts long-short ratio 3.481; price up 0.04%, position amount change +0.04%. The account number structure and position distribution of the top group are aligned.
$SNDK top accounts are more long, position distribution is more short: top accounts long-short ratio 1.355, top positions long-short ratio 0.746; whole market accounts long-short ratio 2.962; price up 0.09%, position amount change -0.0003%.
DOGE, SNDK: The side with account number dominance is opposite to the side with position dominance, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
DOGE, SUI, SNDK: The whole market account structure is more long, which also differs from the top position bias.Late at night, looking at the BTC75622 chart, I asked myself: Are you really ready to break even?
Being ready means accepting losses, accepting waiting, accepting imperfection. I used to think breaking even was about going all in at once, but now I know breaking even comes from small wins one by one, controlling risk, and time.
My small goal for myself: not losing money every day is a victory. Each trade 5000U, always with a stop loss, no holding losing positions, no action if the position isn't right.
Tomorrow's plan: try short above 77000, try long if 74896 holds steady.
Good night, market. See you tomorrow. $BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ In October 1987, Greenspan had been Federal Reserve Chairman for only three months. To establish anti-inflation credibility, he pushed for interest rate hikes, with the market expecting further tightening. Combined with rising long-term interest rates, this ultimately triggered the Black Monday stock market crash. On that day, the Dow plunged 22%, causing a global market chain collapse. The core mechanism was clear: a new chairman setting a tough tone, rapidly rising interest rates, and fragile high stock market valuations—these three factors resonated to create a systemic shock. Today's situation is highly similar. Since Chairman Powell took office, he has clearly emphasized price stability as a priority, and the market has heavily priced in a rate hike this week. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has risen to around 5%, a new high since 2023; Brent crude oil is approaching $108, and WTI has stabilized above $103. Yet the stock market still relies on valuations related to artificial intelligence for support. The lesson from 1987 is evident here: when the central bank prioritizes rebuilding credibility while the market remains immersed in a growth narrative, adjustments often erupt in a nonlinear fashion. The current simultaneous rise in interest rates and oil prices is a modern version of this historical script.The regulatory bill did not pass the procedural vote; the market's real concern is "when the rules will be implemented" rather than the vote itself. Currently, $BTC is around 75,833 and $ETH around 2,403, still near the daily lows, indicating that capital is first pricing in policy uncertainty. If the FOMC wording is dovish and Congress restarts negotiations, a rebound from the lows will depend on spot volume; if the dollar and yields continue to rise, the rebound may just be short covering. Watch whether BTC at 75,000, ETH/BTC, and liquidation volumes improve simultaneously.Japan's 10-year government bond yield has hit 3% for the first time in thirty years, a figure more worth watching than the US breaking 5%.
Global long-term interest rates are rising in sync; the US is not an exception. Malek's explanation is that the market is repricing "lending money for ten years," rather than indicating a problem with the US economy. If this judgment holds, it means the pressure comes from the supply side of funds, not the growth side.
Following the chain, rising long-term rates first suppress the most expensive assets' valuations, then transmit to highly leveraged positions. Who is passive is still unclear because one piece of evidence is missing: whether Japanese funds are truly flowing back home.
The observation point is whether the Japanese bond yield can hold above 3%. If it falls back, this global synchronized narrative will be discounted.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#10年期美债收益率突破5% #贝森特听证释放多重信号 $ETH 🧭 LIQUIDITY LEADS. PRICE FOLLOWS.
If CLARITY gets moving, I’ll be watching for five signs that the market is actually backing the breakout:
→ Spot inflows picking up
→ Trading volume expanding
→ Open interest rising without excessive leverage
→ Relative strength improving
→ Price holding the breakout instead of immediately fading
₿ $BTC → primary liquidity magnet
◆ $ETH → needs clearer capital rotation
⚡ $LIT → higher-beta opportunity only if liquidity expands
#BTC #ETH #LIT #DailyOrbitThe bill was just a few steps away from passing, and $BTC dropped directly to around 75,000 yuan, with another batch of long positions cleared.
What really angered people wasn't this vote; it happened to coincide with the Federal Reserve's meeting. Regulation and interest rates were squeezed together in the same week, leaving positions without even a chance to catch their breath.
$ETH Target 2400, $SOL Target 100—these positions should be watched tonight.
But I'm not in a hurry to follow in and be bearish. After all the negative news is laid out, whether the price can still crash is more useful than the news itself. If 75,000 can't hold and volume increases, then keep looking down; If it holds and slowly pulls back, it means the panic buying may have mostly been released.
So now, with both bull and bear hype in the industry, who is really watching the handicap?
#本周FOMC揭晓, can rate hikes be implemented?
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 #BTC财库优先股融资升温 $BTC $ETH Brothers, don't rush to bottom buy!!!
I know the drop is severe, and it's normal to be itchy-handed. But whether this is the bottom is really uncertain. Want to pull it up? Not that fast.
Don't chase shorts, and don't rush to bottom buy either. Shorting at low levels is riskier than chasing highs; better not to trade than to gamble on that razor-edge money.
Wait for the daily chart to fluctuate again, when it can't fall further, then consider entering. Opportunities are reserved for those with patience; everyone understands the principle, but few actually do it.
Let's talk about interest rate hikes tonight. The market is crazily betting that the Fed will raise rates, with the probability over 90%. But I still say: Trump's midterm elections are just around the corner, wouldn't raising rates now be rubbing salt in voters' wounds? Walsh was pushed up by him personally; would he really dare to go against him now? I don't quite believe it.
Inflation hasn't improved, rate cuts are out of the question, so the smartest move is to hold steady and let the market speculate on rate hike expectations. No need to actually act to suppress inflation, and the election situation is also preserved. If they really raise rates, it will have to wait until after the election.
So my judgment: don't be led by panic. If they really don't raise rates tonight, gold will likely give you a chance for a retaliatory pullback. Those who can endure will reap the rewards.
Control your hands, don't open positions lightly. #黄金 #BTC #美联储 #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Can I survive tonight?
Honestly 🥹
I'm not thinking about making money anymore.
I just want to live until tomorrow.
Last night I got up at midnight to top up on C2C.
I'm really exhausted.
$ETH trapped me from 2480 all the way down to 2400.
Now watching it sideways here,
I start to fantasize again.
Maybe it finally can't fall any further.
Can a big bullish candle tonight pull me back?
I even want to open another long position.
But I quietly pulled my hand back.
The real explosion point tonight is at 2 AM.
The market pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike is already over 90%.
All this data is pushing the Fed to be hawkish.
I still think a rate hike is not certain.
But the current data definitely isn't on my side.
If unexpectedly no hike happens,
shorts might collectively cover.
If there is a hike but the speech isn't that hawkish,
there might be a spike down first then a rebound.
The worst is if after the hike they continue hawkish,
then risk assets will have to take another hit.
—
$ETH selling pressure has temporarily eased,
but sideways movement doesn't mean a reversal.
What I fear most tonight is getting stopped out first by a sweep,
then $SNDK pulling up sharply from the same spot.
Also, last night's drop wasn't just a dump by dog whales.
The US crypto regulatory bill failed to pass.
Over $570 million long positions were liquidated across the market.
ETH fell so sharply
mainly due to news combined with high leverage liquidations.
Surviving tonight
is more important than anything.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 Japan's 10-year government bond yield has exceeded 3% for the first time in 30 years, while the US 10-year yield has surpassed 5%.
Putting these two events together, market makers probably just want to sigh.
First question: Is this a problem unique to the US? No. Global interest rates are rising together; no one can pretend to be innocent.
Second question: So why is money still flowing into US Treasuries? Because other places are even more risky.
Third question: What about crypto? With interest rates at 5%, risk-free returns are more attractive than many crypto stories, so market makers' willingness to provide liquidity will only tighten.
So don't rush to interpret this as a major signal.
The real signal to wait for is—when global long-term yields stop rising in sync, that will be the time risk assets can catch a breath.
Now? Market makers are too lazy to move.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#10年期美债收益率突破5% #贝森特听证释放多重信号 $HYPE assuming we activate alpenglow after 200ms, solana will have an instant +6-7% or so in its block limits from not having votes take up blockspace
votes are actually a fairly large amount of the data in turbine as well so that will go away as well.
in other words, IBRL
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 The name in the crypto circle is getting more and more ridiculous. $USELESS is rising more joyfully than anyone else, truly proving the saying: the weirder the name, the faster it rises.
First, let's talk about $USELESS. The price surged to $0.22771, with a daily increase of 11.51%. The most shocking part is the net inflow data—an astonishing $52,837,000! You should know its total daily trading volume is only $68,608,000. What does this mean? It means off-exchange funds are pouring in blindly, and the tokens are tightly locked by institutions or whales. This kind of trend is a classic case of shorts not dying and the price continuing to rise. Those who hesitated to buy at $0.1966 last night are probably regretting it now.
Next, look at $CNPY. This thing is basically a no-go zone for people with heart conditions. A 40.09% amplitude, bouncing from $0.2943 to $0.4154, now falling back to $0.3664. Although it also has a net inflow of $29,246,200, its trading volume is $153 million, with an astonishingly high turnover rate, clearly showing speculative traders are harvesting each other inside. Right now, this position is a crossroads: if the relay is good, it doubles; if not, it’s standing at the peak.
What worries me most is $HYPE (Hyperliquid). The name suggests super liquidity, but the price at $77.345 is almost stagnant, with a slight increase of 0.12%. The strangest thing is that despite a trading volume of $241 million, there’s a net outflow of $19,590,200. This high-level stagnation combined with capital withdrawal is a definite distribution signal. While everyone is shouting about HYPE, smart money is quietly cashing out.
The current market phase is a typical chaos of speculative coins dancing wildly, while mainstream coins are stagnant. At times like this, the worst thing is to go all-in stubbornly; you have to follow the money but be ready to jump out anytime.
My plan:
Direction: Go long on $USELESS (follow the trend)
Entry point: Wait for a pullback near $0.21500 to confirm support.
Stop loss: $0.19500 (hard stop loss at 9.3%, to guard against a deep shakeout)
Target: First target at $0.26000, reduce position and take profits once reached.
Direction: Short $HYPE (betting on distribution and pullback)
Entry point: Enter near $78.500 on a rebound.
Stop loss: $80.500 (hard stop loss at 2.5%, exit if it breaks previous high)
Target: First target at $72.000.
When to exit? As soon as the net inflow of $USELESS turns negative, I’ll exit immediately. Coins propped up by sentiment will crash once funds withdraw. Brothers, making money now depends on guts and speed—never fall in love with a coin!