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This week, I’m keeping the macro picture pretty simple:
Inflation vs Jobs.
PCE → Are price pressures actually cooling?
Payrolls → Is the labor market starting to crack?
Personally, I think the interesting part comes when we put both numbers together.
If inflation stays sticky while hiring remains strong, the Fed has very little reason to become more relaxed about policy. But if PCE cools and the jobs market starts losing momentum at the same time, the rate conversation could change very quickly.
A mixed result would probably make things even messier and honestly, that wouldn’t surprise me either.
For BTC, I’m not planning to chase the first reaction to either report. I’ll be watching Treasury yields, the dollar and whether BTC can hold its key levels once the initial volatility settles.
My view going into the week:
One number can move the market.
Two numbers can change the narrative.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek $BTC
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