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since 2013 $BTC has closed october green 10 out of 13 times
77% of the time
who's ready for uptober?
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #AnthropicSpaceX$84.5B Almost there, the most frustrating thing 😡
$ETH is once again testing patience. The price is around 2690u, very close to the 2700 whole number mark, but being ten dollars short and firmly standing above are two different things. I will treat 2700 as an observation line: if the 4-hour close stays above it and the pullback finds support, then it’s worth raising expectations for a rebound. We can’t just consider the whole number as strong resistance here. The price has risen nearly 10% in the past month but has barely changed in the past week, so short-term momentum is still hesitant. Let the price develop continuity first.
$WLD World announced on September 17 that WorldMoney is launching in over 150 countries, integrating stablecoins and payment functions, with specific features varying by region. This change is worth tracking: users have more reasons to engage with the project, which could later extend from identity verification to everyday financial use. However, the number of countries covered is just the entry point; actual usage frequency and retention are more important. It has already risen more than 20% in the past week, so market expectations are not low; subsequent data must keep up.
$OKB’s pace isn’t that urgent, rising about 1% in a week. I will watch whether it expands trading volume in sync when the market heats up, rather than hastily labeling the sideways movement as strong. Stable prices could mean low selling pressure or simply insufficient trading willingness; we need to distinguish based on later performance. If volume gradually increases during rises and selling pressure contracts during pullbacks, that’s more indicative of sustained demand. Holding OKB does not equal holding exchange equity; platform business development and token returns cannot be directly equated.The bears have finally awaited the dawn
The days of sideways trading are the most exhausting. The price moves like a dead fish, flipping back and forth within a narrow range, giving neither satisfaction nor hope. This morning's Ethereum was just like that—tasteless to consume, yet too precious to abandon. Staring at the chart, fingers hovering above the keyboard, unwilling to close positions, afraid to add more—truly a tug-of-war of patience and willpower.
Fortunately, it finally moved in the afternoon.
2670, a number watched for too long. When the price truly and clearly broke below it, there was a feeling of "Heaven rewards the diligent." The candlesticks probed downward one by one, like stones testing the abyss—slowly, but with a certain decisiveness. The floating profit of the short positions gradually increased, bringing a sense of calm.
Now just waiting for 2650. If it dips a bit further, even just a light touch, I will close my position and leave. No greed, no attachment; this wave of volatility has drained too much energy. Being able to take a bite is already a blessing from the market.
Markets are always born in despair, rise in hesitation, and end in celebration. And volatility is the breeding ground for most people's losses. Now that the bears have finally seen a glimmer of light, they seek not huge profits, but to secure their gains.
May this time, 2650 arrive as promised.
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 🔥 BTC delivers the best quarter since 2024 but starts stuck below 84,000
September wasn't crushed, October's first day is a tug-of-war between rate hike expectations and U.S. Treasury bonds
Before Friday's non-farm payrolls, will BTC go up or down?
📍 Latest on the three coins:
BTC around 83,600 | Yesterday's range 82,919 to 85,639
ETH around 2,680 | Weak, gains lagging behind BTC
SOL around 119 | Spot ETF has had net inflows for 11 consecutive weeks
📊 Highlights from last night:
· PCE cooling, ADP stronger, mixed signals, long bond yields remain high, limited rebound
· BTC still about one-third below last October's high
🎯 Key levels today:
BTC: 84,000 is resistance above, 82,919 is yesterday's low; if broken, watch below 83,000
ETH: 2,700 is the strength threshold (my reference level)
SOL: Must hold above 120 to target 125
📅 Friday's non-farm payrolls expected to add about 84,000 to 90,000; stronger data heats up rate hike expectations, weaker data gives BTC breathing room.
⚠️ Avoid heavy positions before non-farm payrolls, wait for 15-minute close to act.
Do you think BTC will close above or below 84,000 today? Vote in the comments 👇
$BTC $ETH $SOL #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 $BTC opened a short at 83400, recording the trading idea this time is not because I saw a bearish candle and chased it, but because the market has felt quite conflicted these days:
Around 84500 above, there is repeated resistance; after a rally, there was no sustained volume breakout, instead multiple rapid pullbacks occurred.
This wave today is the same, the price touched near 84500 and then started to fall back, now returning to the 83400 area.
What I pay more attention to is a detail:
During the rise, the trading volume did not show obvious sustained expansion, but during the pullback phase, capital reacted faster.
This indicates that short-term bulls and bears are still divided.
My trading logic is very simple:
First, around 84500 is a short-term resistance area; before a valid hold above it, I will not blindly chase longs.
Second, the price rebounded from around 82500, already recovering part of the decline, so there is a short-term profit-taking demand.
Third, the current market sentiment has not completely weakened, so this short position is more of a range pullback rather than betting on a big drop.
Of course, the biggest problem with short positions is they are easily stopped out by spikes.
If BTC breaks above 84500 again with volume, I will reassess and not stubbornly hold on.
The biggest feeling after trading for so long:
Many times it’s not that the direction was wrong, but the position size and timing were off.
The market offers opportunities every day, but not every fluctuation is worth participating in.
Recording my real operation, and also seeing if this judgment will be proven wrong by the market in the end. $BTC US August inflation data is out, with overall PCE year-over-year at 3.4%, much better than the 3.7% that everyone was worried about. Core PCE year-over-year is 3.0%, and month-over-month only rose 0.2%, showing a clear cooling of inflation.
Logically, this is definitely positive news, which should ease concerns about further tightening policies, and risk assets should naturally strengthen accordingly. But interestingly, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have not been able to sustain an upward trend.
After the announcement, BTC briefly surged, touching above 85600, but soon fell back and is now around 83800. ETH peaked at 2738, similarly surged then retreated, dropping to around 2670.
This is a typical case of positive news landing and short-term funds taking profits. This single data point alone is not enough to drive the market to break through directly. This also indicates that the current market lacks strong bullish confidence, with heavy selling pressure above. To start a new round of rally, more incremental funds need to enter the market. $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Don't just focus on the K-line! Tonight's $BTC long and short positions, one data point is enough.
In the past 7 days, BTC open interest contracts decreased by 49,000, marking the largest weekly drop since October 2025. But strangely, there was no large-scale forced liquidation this time. In other words, leveraged funds are actively exiting, not being wiped out by price. Low volatility and declining funding rates suggest leveraged longs are taking profits rather than panicking and fleeing.
In the same period, BlackRock withdrew 1,150 BTC from Coinbase Prime, while Strategy bought 1,666 BTC at an average price of $85,700. Leverage is retreating, spot institutions are entering. This data supports "chip rotation" rather than a simple shift to short.
Price-wise: $82,500 is short-term support; breaking below may test the $80,000 psychological level; $85,000 is recent resistance. Next, watch if open interest can stop falling and stabilize above $82,500. If contract reduction slows and price holds support, rotation is nearing its end; if contracts continue shrinking and price breaks support, the narrative of leveraged exit needs to be reconsidered.
The real direction may not lie in price, but in who remains in the market.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $BTC "Short at 83400 is just a planned trade"
$BTC pulled from 82501 up to 84544, then clearly hit resistance around 84500, followed by a sharp drop back to 83000. Now the price has bounced back to 83400, but the volume isn't as fierce as that previous sell-off. So I tried shorting near 83400—not because I believe it will crash immediately, but because this level makes me reluctant to chase longs.
My bet is: after the rebound, there will be another pullback. If it breaks below 83000, I'll keep an eye on 82500; if volume picks up and it holds above 84000, I'll admit this short was wrong and won't fight the market.
I missed the long at 81800 yesterday, and today I’m not chasing just because I missed it. I'm increasingly convinced that trading isn't about guessing the big direction every day, but waiting for the right odds to act. Cut losses when wrong, hold when right, that's all.
This short is just a trade plan, not a trend call. The key levels for BTC right now are simply 82500 and 84500: whichever breaks first, the market will give the answer. What I need to do is just manage this trade well, not greedily chase the whole move.
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 10.1 Crypto Morning Report｜📝
$BTC is currently around 83700. Last night, after the PCE data release, it spiked directly to 85650, but unfortunately it was only a 4-hour move before fully retracing. The Asian session fluctuated between 83500–84500, ETH at 2680.
The bullish move was just a wick, don’t mistake it for a valid breakout.
News: Williams stated there might be one more rate hike this year, but no rush; the US is preparing to release 40 million barrels from the SPR to control oil prices. US-Iran negotiations remain stuck, Iran is waiting for the US response on the Hormuz proposal. Domestic mortgage interest subsidies start from October 1, PSL cut by 25bp.
August PCE was below expectations, overall 3.4% (expected 3.7%), core 3.0% (expected 3.3%). The probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 70% to 35%, Goldman Sachs pushed the rate hike expectation to December. Short-term yields fell, but long-term bonds remain resilient, oil prices did not drop significantly. The Strait agreement is still not finalized.
Market: Shorts were squeezed, but bulls couldn’t hold profits. 85600 is the strong resistance for this move. Support is at 83000; if broken, look down to 81000. Liquidity is weak during the National Day holiday, so don’t blindly chase these wick moves.
⚠️ This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. $CORE At 6:41 this morning, Core DAO released the latest announcement, another carefully packaged narrative: claiming the project is moving towards a new stage of decentralization, planning to gradually hand over the remaining block production to independent validators over the coming months.
Let's take a closer look at the underlying tactics of this rhetoric:
Continuous and stable block production by nodes is a fundamental duty that must be fulfilled after a public chain goes live, yet now it is forcibly packaged as a major milestone. The announcement vaguely states "in the coming months," without a confirmed launch date or verifiable quantitative standards, which is a typical long-term soft commitment.
Merely transferring part of the block production role is exaggerated and portrayed as a new chapter for the network. Given the long-term lack of practical applications, such announcements essentially serve to maintain community enthusiasm and create expectation stories for holders.
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and market trends cannot be precisely predicted; all analyses are merely market opinions and carry very high risk.Oil rises 2.25%, 30-year US Treasury yield may hit 6%, how fake is this rebound?
All three major US stock indexes are up, the fear index dropped to 15.63, but the crypto market only managed an awkward $BTC +0.37% gain. The long-term US Treasury yield is being called to possibly reach 6%, a thorn at the bottom of all rebounds. Crude oil surged 2.25% in a single day, like pouring another bucket of fuel on the fire of inflation expectations, pushing up transportation and chemical costs, disrupting the pace of inflation decline. Short-term yields are easing while long-term yields are tightening; this mixed signal suppresses more than it boosts high-duration assets like crypto. $BTC at 84,514 is just one step away from 85,000, but if volume doesn't keep up, it's likely another false breakout. Keep an eye on long-term bond yields and oil prices; don't be fooled by the appearance of low volatility. $BTC $ETHPositive news ineffective? Volume shrinks into a deadlock! How much longer will the "Eagle Endurance" of BTC and ETH last?
Brothers, the market looks like a sealed pot: positive news thrown in, not even a sound. It's not that there's no reaction, the market is numb.
PCE surprised on the downside, BTC and ETH only gave a perfunctory rebound; 4-hour trendline is a strong resistance, KDJ is dulled at low levels, trading volume shrinks, a stagnant pool. Leverage has been cleared, funding rates hover near zero, but the long-short ratio remains high, retail investors stubbornly hold on and buy against the trend. The main force won't carry such a heavy burden to push the market up, "cleaning out floating chips" is likely not over.
Order book depth is thin, small amounts of capital can cause sharp spikes up and down, long and short blowouts can trigger anytime. BTC ecosystem is under pressure, ETH positive news still needs time, the market is like a spring that has lost its elasticity—the quieter it is, the more dangerous.
Retail investors don't retreat, main forces don't pull up. This is an extreme "Eagle Endurance" war of attrition. Don't fantasize about one-sided windfalls, control your positions, don't chase, don't catch falling knives. Only when panic selling surges will the deadlock break.
$BTC $ETH SOL has a real ecosystem: Allfunds' trillion-dollar asset management channel, 4 billion RWA, SEC's compliance window, and 12 consecutive weeks of ETF net inflows. These are all real.
But SOL also has real issues: the oracle migration for the 29.1 billion DeFi positions remains unresolved, crowded longs above $125, capital siphoning as Bitcoin market dominance approaches 60%, and macro pressure from the 5.27% US Treasury yield.
An asset with an ecosystem, an ETF, and problems will see its price repeatedly tug-of-war around 118 until the uncertainty of infrastructure migration is resolved.
115-118 is the lifeline. Holding it allows room for volatile recovery. Breaking below it, 100-105 becomes the graveyard for the next batch of longs.
Don't talk about bottom fishing on a night when 29.1 billion DeFi is "naked running." First, see if Switchboard's migration is complete.
(The above content does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks; only those who survive have the right to talk about the future.) $BTC $ETH $ZEC #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 SOL is now around 118. That voice in your head is back: "Is it time to buy the dip?"
First, answer these three questions:
1. Has the $29.1 billion DeFi oracle migration been resolved? Switchboard's deadline was September 25. Now it's September 30. Five days have passed—have Kamino, Jito, and Drift completed the migration? There's no answer in the search materials. No answer means the biggest risk.
2. The US Treasury yield is 5.27%. When will it drop? As long as oil prices stay above $100, inflationary pressure remains. As long as inflation pressure exists, Treasury yields won't come down. SOL's "high Beta premium" can't outperform the 5.27% Treasury interest.
3. Where is your stop loss? Analysts' key judgment is: 115-118 is immediate support, 100-105 is the next defense line. From 118 to 105 is an 11% drop. And SOL's intraday volatility tells you it can cover your entire stop loss range within a single day.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Kashkari says there will be rate hikes, but they will happen in the years after next
Kashkari says there will be one hike this year and another in 2027.
Inflation is currently around 3%, which he says is still too high.
The key point is this: he is not talking about now
It's one hike this year, and one in 2027.
There is more than a year gap between the two.
How is this number calculated: 3% is still some distance from the target
So he refuses to back down.
Short-term traders are focused on the next meeting.
He is giving a cross-year account.
With rate hike expectations extended, the short-term rhythm no longer applies.
What really matters is not whether to hike, but how long between hikes.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 $HYPE 【$BNB Viewpoint】Bullish bias (short-term within 24 hours) 【Basis】① 2-hour MA20 (762.89) is supporting from below, mid-term structure intact; ② In the last 6 candles on the 15-minute chart, 5 are bullish, indicating strong short-term momentum; ③ Price is at 60.5% of the 24-hour range, centered, direction undecided 【Trigger】Break above 770.60 and hold above two 15-minute candles → view turns bullish; break below 765.20 → view turns bearish or invalidated 【Invalidation】If a high-volume long bearish candle on the 15-minute chart retracts the key level, it indicates a wick shakeout, and this viewpoint is invalidated. $BNB is currently 0.92% above the 2-hour moving average (762.89), with short-term cost zone nearby. On the 15-minute chart, 5 of the last 6 candles are bullish—buying pressure continues. Let's first discuss the short-term structure. On the 15-minute timeframe, $BNB is above MA20 (767.38) and MA50 (768.81), with the two moving averages converging, indicating sideways consolidation awaiting breakout. The 2-hour range is 749.90 ~ 785.70, current price at 55.9% of this range; 2-hour MA20 is 762.89, price is 0.92% above it (2-hour timeframe). The daily chart shows a complete bullish structure: $BNB's MA20 is at 755.98, price is 1.84% above; daily range is 555.20 ~ 807.4 【$SOL Viewpoint】Volatility (Short-term 12-24 hours) 【Basis】① 2-hour MA20 (119.03) is pressing from above, indicating a weakening mid-term structure; ② In the last 6 candles on the 15-minute chart, 4 are bullish, showing relatively strong short-term momentum; ③ Price is at 22.1% of the 24-hour range, close to the lower boundary, with limited downside space 【Trigger】Break above 118.48 and hold for two 15-minute candles → bullish view; break below 117.54 → bearish view or invalidation 【Invalidation】If a high-volume long bearish candle appears on the 15-minute chart reclaiming the key level, it indicates a wick shakeout, and this viewpoint is invalid. $SOL is currently 0.68% below the 2-hour moving average (119.03), with the short-term cost zone nearby. On the 15-minute chart, 4 of the last 6 candles are bullish—buying pressure is still present. Let's first discuss the short-term structure. On the 15-minute timeframe, $SOL is above MA20 (118.02) and MA50 (119.10), with the two moving averages separated, indicating a clear short-term direction. The 2-hour range is 112.40 ~ 124.95, with the current price at 46.4% of this range; the 2-hour MA20 is 119.03, and the price is 0.68% below it (2-hour perspective). The daily chart shows a complete bullish structure: $SOL's MA20 is at 111.81, with the price 5.73% above; the daily range is 70.51 ~ 1 If Friday's non-farm payroll data becomes the biggest sentiment switch of the week, then what you really need to watch is not the number itself, but the sequence of sector strength shifts before and after the data release. Are you ready to be wiped out by a spike, or are you prepared to wait for the market to show its stance first? Over the past two days, I've scanned the market and my biggest impression is: everyone says they don't bet on the data, but their actions are very honest. Non-farm payrolls are a major macro event, and the volatility at the moment of release is extremely intense, but no one can accurately predict the number in advance. Whether it is above expectations, below expectations, or exactly as expected, each of the three outcomes corresponds to a completely different market movement. Many people get the direction right but get stopped out by the long wick at the open, wasting their effort. My own habit is simple: I only hold light positions or stay out before the data, wait for the market to react first, see which sector the money is really flowing into, and then decide whether to follow. The biggest taboo in trading is to take sides prematurely and be led by the nose by a piece of news. Opportunities come every day, but once your capital is gone, it's really gone. Risk control always comes first. This time, I want to focus on sector strength because after the data lands, funds will not be distributed evenly but will pick directions. If the data is warm and rate cut expectations rise, risk appetite will lift first. BTC is often the first to react; its role now is more like a thermometer of overall market sentiment. ETH usually lags by half a beat, but once it catches up, the altcoin sentiment will be ignited. Conversely, if the data is cold and yields remain high, for example, the 30-year US Treasury yield breaking above 5.6%, funds will first retreat to places with higher certainty, altcoinsIn DOGE's on-chain data, the daily growth rate of new addresses is turning upward, a signal more worth watching than the price itself. New addresses are a leading indicator of incremental funds: when someone registers a wallet, buys, or transfers, a new address appears on-chain. The curve rising indicates that outsiders are entering the market, shifting from a stock game among old players to incremental expansion.
In a stock game market, chips just circulate among familiar hands—you sell, I buy; the price neither rises nor falls significantly, and the market tends to stagnate in a sideways pattern. Continuous increase in new addresses is a different matter; each batch of new buyers brings fresh funds, absorbing the selling pressure from profit-taking and raising the cost base. Looking back at previous DOGE trend cycles, on-chain new addresses often start before the price does; the address curve bottoms out first, then the price follows.
But caution is needed. If new address growth is just a short-term pulse, such as a registration surge triggered by a hot event, the curve will fall back once the hype fades. A meaningful signal is a sustained growth slope over several weeks, combined with simultaneous increases in active addresses and transaction counts, confirming that the incoming funds are not just one-day visitors.
Next, three indicators can be monitored: the sustainability of new address growth, whether net inflows to exchanges are slowing, and whether large coin holders are selling off. If the first two are positive and the third is quiet, this batch of $DOGE fresh blood can be considered truly rooted. Conversely, if new addresses rise while old whales reduce holdings, the newcomers entering may just be the next chapter of the bag-holding story.Micron's earnings report is so impressive, yet the stock price once again shows no respect
MU's earnings numbers are really solid:
Q4 revenue $54.23 billion, EPS $33.42; next quarter $61.5 billion, $38.15 EPS, continuing to beat expectations. (This should push the price up anywhere, but unfortunately it's MU
However, after MU surged past 1080, it didn't continue to climb.
So I chose to short MU around 1081, not because the earnings are bad, but because such strong results didn't get an equally strong price reaction. (It's a traditional pattern; recently, after US earnings reports, stocks tend to dip a bit, seems like a high-probability event
MU has already risen quite a bit, with many expectations priced in early. If MU still can't push higher tomorrow, short-term risk of profit-taking is likely.
So compared to MU, I am more optimistic about SanDisk SNDK.
MU's expectations are already very high, but if SanDisk SNDK starts attracting funds, its upside potential might actually be more comfortable.
Tomorrow I will focus on SNDK.
$MU $SNDK #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $ONE This contract is a typical scam. When spot and contract trading were going normally, suddenly there was an announcement about delisting. The shorts got excited and heavily shorted, then suddenly another announcement came saying the delisting was postponed, leaving both bulls and bears confused. Then the smart ones slowly realized: this thing can only be watched, not participated in. Postponing does not mean the risk is lifted; it just means some related parties haven't gotten out yet!The latest inflation data has been released, showing that the overall price level remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Inflation stickiness has not completely disappeared, but the decline has exceeded previous market expectations.
Market interpretation: The marginal slowdown in inflation will weaken the Federal Reserve's motivation to continue raising interest rates. Expectations for rate cuts are beginning to be repriced, U.S. Treasury yields have potential to fall, which is favorable for risk assets like BTC.
Personal view:
This is a marginal positive, but not a signal of a full turnaround. The absolute value of inflation is still relatively high, and the Federal Reserve will not ease immediately. The high interest rate environment is unlikely to end completely in the short term.
Do not heavily chase long positions just because inflation is falling. Macro data tends to fluctuate repeatedly, and if oil prices rebound, inflation could rebound at any time. In the short term, prioritize watching changes in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and make sure to set stop losses on leveraged positions.
Cooling inflation is a plus, but confirmation of a bull market requires verification from multiple consecutive data sets. The fourth truth: Above $125 is a grave dug by the bulls themselves
Look at the position structure.
From September 18 to 19, SOL rose from 101 to 112, shorts liquidated 36.72 million, bulls only lost 1.48 million. The short squeeze pushed the price up.
Then?
Spot trading volume was only 1.49 billion, futures trading volume was 12.1 billion — futures are more than 8 times the spot. Think about it: in a market where futures volume is 8 times spot, what drives the price? It's leverage, not spot buying.
$125 is the highest point in 7 months. Shorts have been fully cleared, the fuel for the short squeeze is burned out. To rise to 130, 140 next, real cash spot buying is needed. But where is the spot buying?
Hesitating around $125.
$SOL $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Two giant whales. One slept for 9 years, then woke up and sold $30 million worth of assets. The other quietly bought nearly $30 million during the pullback.
Let's first look at the one that slept for 9 years.
An early Ethereum address that had been dormant for nearly 9 years was activated. In 2017, it bought 3,000 ETH at an average price of $18.8. In recent days, it started taking profits in batches, having sold 2,000 ETH at an average price of $3,096, cashing out $6.19 million, netting a profit of $6.15 million, a 156x return.
Bought at $18.8, sold at $3,000. 9 years, 156x.
This profit-taking point coincides exactly with Ethereum's most glorious moment. In Q3 2026, Ethereum recorded a quarterly return of 72.7%, a historic high. Ethereum spot ETFs have had net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with the latest weekly inflow exceeding $689.8 million, and BlackRock's ETHA saw a single-day inflow of $127 million.
The 9-year-old whale is selling, BlackRock is buying.
But while ETH whales are exiting, what are ZEC whales doing?
According to Lookonchain monitoring, two addresses possibly belonging to the same whale have withdrawn a total of 24,706 ZEC from exchanges and Gate.io over the past month, worth about $28.17 million, at an average price of $1,140. ZEC is currently trading at $1,428, about 25% higher than this whale's withdrawal average price.
In one month, $28.17 million worth of ZEC was moved off exchanges.
This is completely contrary to the market narrative that "ZEC whales are selling." While public opinion discusses early players cashing out, someone is using real money, withdrawing ZEC coin by coin from exchanges. True accumulation never shows up on the candlestick chart.
Strategy directly given:
ETH, 3,096 is the profit-taking average price for this old whale in this round and also a short-term resistance reference. With ETFs having net inflows for 7 consecutive days and institutions buying, 2,650 is short-term support; holding this level means the accumulation logic remains intact; breaking below 2,550 means the old whale's selling pressure hasn't been fully absorbed, so reduce positions and observe.
ZEC, around 1,428. This whale withdrew $28.17 million at an average price of 1,140 in one month, indicating 1,140 to 1,200 is its core cost zone. Holding near 1,200 on a pullback means the accumulation logic is still valid; breaking below 1,100 means even the whale is trapped, so don't catch a falling knife.
Old whales are exiting, new whales are entering. At the same time, two different destinies. Don't just look at the candlestick chart; watch whose hands the chips flow from and to.
$ETH $ZEC The recent large transfers on the DOGE chain are notable not for the number of transactions, but for their direction.
According to Whale Alert records, the frequency of transfers exceeding $1 million is rising, with most following the path "exchange → unknown wallet." The meaning of this direction is straightforward: whales are withdrawing coins from exchanges to addresses they control, entering a self-custody state. Coins held on exchanges can be quickly listed for sale with one click; coins transferred to cold wallets won't appear on the order book in the short term. This withdrawal action effectively removes chips from the circulating supply, thereby reducing selling pressure. If whales intend to sell, the path should be reversed—coins flowing back from cold wallets to exchanges, which would be a dangerous signal. Therefore, on-chain movements toward self-custody are usually interpreted by the market as accumulation, or at least as locking up tokens.
Of course, a single indicator cannot support a conclusion. "Unknown wallets" are not all cold wallets; they may include OTC settlement addresses or even internal fund consolidation within exchanges. To determine if accumulation is occurring, several data points must be cross-verified: whether the exchange's $DOGE balance is continuously decreasing, whether the proportion of long-term holders is rising, and whether these addresses go silent after the withdrawal wave. The logic of chip locking only holds if withdrawals and balance declines happen simultaneously.
One more thing to be clear about: moving coins itself does not generate buying pressure; it changes the location of the chips. After the circulating supply thins, the same capital inflow can drive greater price elasticity, which is the structure bulls need. Conversely, once these addresses start transferring coins back to exchanges, the entire accumulation narrative falls apart.OpenAI went to help design chips.
Two years ago, who would have believed this.
Previously, chip design required a room full of engineers to draw diagrams, run simulations, and adjust parameters, taking several months per cycle.
Now AI agents directly tune Synopsys' EDA tools, running power, performance, and area analyses themselves, iterating on their own.
In short, the most tedious part of chip design is outsourced to the model.
But don’t rush to shout that AI is disrupting semiconductors.
This is currently only being tested with a few top clients, under a revenue-sharing model, with no disclosure on how the money is split.
It’s still early for true large-scale deployment.
For the crypto world, this news itself has no direct relation.
What’s really worth pondering is another layer: AI is starting to penetrate the deepest parts of hard tech.
Previously, when people talked about AI + crypto, it was all narrative.
Now they are working on AI + chip design.
That’s the difference.
Others are making the shovels, while we’re still betting on whether the shovels will rise in value.
This time I’m not chasing any concepts, just watching who can really put this to use.
#Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 #AMD拟斥资82亿美元收购AI公司 $ETH ETH doubled topped near 2738 last night, then retreated below 2700. This wave of gains didn't hold.
US August PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month, below the expected 0.4%, with core up 0.2% month-over-month. Inflation isn't as hot as expected, which is slightly bullish for ETH in the short term. However, it still can't break through the 2695–2700 range. Today, consider a pullback to support before rebounding.
Direction: Pullback to confirm long
Support: 2660–2670
Resistance: 2695–2700, 2735–2750
Entry: After pulling back to 2660–2670, if the 15-minute candle closes above 2670, consider longs only between 2670–2674; after confirmation, if it breaks out of this range, wait for another pullback.
Stop loss: 2648
Take profit: First 2700, then 2730; take partial profits once the first target is reached.
Invalidation: Cancel the plan if 2648 or 2730 is hit before entry; cancel any unfilled orders at 20:00 on October 1st; if already entered, close the short-term position then.
Whether it can hold near 2660 is key for this trade. If it breaks below, admit the mistake and don't stubbornly hold on just because of PCE bullishness. $BTC at this position, it's easiest for people to lose patience.
Currently, the price is around $83,700, with a 24-hour high touching about $85,700. After the surge, it started to pull back, and the market clearly entered a tug-of-war.
In the short term, I’m more focused on two levels: $85,700 is the resistance above; only if it can firmly hold above this level is there a chance to continue expanding upward space. On the downside, watch $83,000 first; if this level doesn’t hold, the retracement could widen further.
The most frustrating thing in this kind of market is not the drop, but the repeated oscillations.
So don’t rush to chase now; keep an eye on the key levels and wait for the direction.
When $BTC truly chooses a direction, it’s often when everyone is the least patient.【PCE has cooled down, but will the Fed continue to raise rates?】
This time the PCE really gave the market a breather. Core PCE in August was 3.0% year-over-year, below the expected 3.3%, with a monthly increase of 0.2%; the market immediately pushed the probability of a rate hike in October down to 52.9%, leaning towards a "pause."
$BTC also followed suit, touching $85,600, but quickly returned to around $84,000. Here's where it gets interesting: inflation data is supporting risk assets, yet oil prices remain near $97, and the energy sector could easily push inflation back up at any time.
ETF inflows haven't stopped either, with nine consecutive trading days of net inflows from September 17 to 29, totaling about $3.08 billion, though single-day inflows have shrunk from nearly $1 billion on September 21 to $66 million.
So what BTC really lacks now isn't an "expectation of rate cuts," but sustained marginal buying. If PCE continues to cool, oil prices drop, and ETFs pick up volume again, this move has room to grow; but if oil prices rise again, that 52.9% figure could quickly flip back.1. BTC $4.35 billion leverage risk: If the price fails to break through and hold above 85,000 in the short term, long leverage positions may be actively reduced due to rising time costs, triggering a price drop below 82,000.
2. ETH institutional fund diversion risk: While BTC ETFs continue to attract funds, ETH ETFs have seen net outflows. If this trend continues, ETH may underperform BTC and even break below the key support at 2,600.
3. Macroeconomic policy uncertainty: The implementation details of the Federal Reserve's stablecoin regulatory framework and progress on the Congressional digital asset bill may cause short-term market volatility. The suppressive effect of high long-term US Treasury yields on risk assets remains a concern.
4. Potential reversal risk from imbalance in whale long-short ratio: When the proportion of long whales is too high and the profitability ratio is insufficient, a rapid price drop could trigger a "stampede" liquidation among longs, amplifying the decline. Currently, BTC long profitability is only 53.76%, so close attention is needed on the long defense line near 81,500. Seeing the US-Iran negotiations restart, many people in the group are asking how much this will impact the crypto space.
Honestly, having been in this market for so many years, every time there's a stir in the Middle East, the market first reacts emotionally, but in the end, the real lasting impact isn't that big; it's mostly short-term pulse movements.
For these kinds of geopolitical issues, I usually don't do short-term trades because you simply can't predict whether the negotiations will succeed or fail. If talks suddenly break down, the market might instantly spike up, or if they succeed, it might immediately crash—you won't have time to react.
My own habit is to let such news sit and observe, wait for the emotions to settle, see which direction the market ultimately takes, and then follow the trend. I never rush in as soon as the news breaks.
Fellow traders who've been around for a while should understand: the bigger the headline everyone is watching, the easier it is to get trapped in emotional swings. Instead, it's those small unnoticed changes that often lead to the real big moves.
When you encounter such major geopolitical news, do you trade short-term or observe first like me? Let's chat in the comments.
$BTC
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 Small Company, Big Licenses, Slow Cycle: Can Mobilum Support SatPay's Global Ambitions?
Many investors equate Mobilum's European licenses with a guarantee for SatPay's global rollout. However, Mobilum is just a small fintech listed on the Canadian CSE, and its existing licenses only support pilot operations within Europe. Achieving global ambitions presents significant challenges.
Mobilum holds a Polish payment license, EU VASP certification, and Canadian MSB qualification, enabling it to provide KYC, fiat settlement, and Mastercard card issuance services within the European Economic Area, supporting the launch of SatPay's European version. But these licenses have regional restrictions; EU qualifications do not directly apply in the US or Southeast Asia.
Applying for multinational financial licenses, maintaining banking channels, and conducting anti-money laundering audits require continuous substantial investment in funds and manpower. Mobilum's cash flow reserves are limited, and the cost and lengthy process of applying for MTL licenses in each US state are high. Additionally, Mobilum serves as an outsourced payment provider for multiple Web3 projects, meaning compliance and banking resources must be shared across parties, posing risks of resource dispersion.
SatPay's European launch is an achievable goal, but global expansion exceeds Mobilum's current capacity. If multi-country compliance approvals continue to be delayed, SatPay will be confined to European internal testing, making it difficult to fulfill CORE's "new Bitcoin bank" global narrative. A small company holding regional licenses struggles to withstand the prolonged global compliance cycle. $LINK The real signal of the altcoin season: institutions are starting to "bridge" assets
The biggest fear in traditional finance going on-chain is not that the chain is too slow, but that once assets cross over, compliance, risk control, and final settlement all go out of control. Chainlink's CCIP 2.0 aims to solve exactly this pain point: cross-chain transaction confirmation rules can be adjusted according to business needs, compliance checks can be directly embedded in the flow, and the verification layer is no longer weak. In plain terms, institutions can move assets between public chains, private chains, and permissioned chains while trying not to lose regulatory requirements along the way.
This progress may not sound exciting, but it could be more valuable than hot narratives. Because institutional funds won't pay for slogans; they want standards, channels, security boundaries, and a commercially viable closed loop. Whoever builds this hard, foundational infrastructure has the chance to gain longer-term pricing power.
So, stop looking at this cycle with the old script of "all altcoins will fly." The one that might truly be revalued is not the loudest, but the one that can capture traditional funds, real business, and fee capture. LINK may not top the charts every day, but the position it holds is exactly the gateway that traditional finance cannot bypass when going on-chain. The next wave of opportunity may lie with those building the roads.
This does not constitute investment advice. #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking above 5.6% has the most direct impact on the crypto market by sharply raising the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets due to the surge in the risk-free rate. Capital is flowing from volatile assets like Bitcoin to the U.S. Treasury market, which offers a certain return exceeding 5%. This pressure does not stem from the yield level itself; what truly triggers intense volatility in the crypto market is the spike in bond market volatility—when the MOVE index jumped 21% in a single day, Bitcoin plunged from $87,200 to $83,500 within hours, causing large-scale liquidations of highly leveraged long positions and creating a vicious feedback loop of "drop—liquidation—further drop." It is worth noting that the long-term correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury yields is actually close to zero (the 90-day rolling correlation coefficient is about -0.17), but there is a stable negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index. Therefore, when rising yields imply expectations of tightening dollar liquidity, the pressure on the crypto market is far greater than what the interest rate level change alone would suggest. Currently, with hedge funds holding about $2 trillion in cash U.S. Treasuries and some involved in high-leverage basis trades, if bond market volatility further expands, deleveraging could amplify Treasury market volatility and further impact overall financial market liquidity. As one of the asset classes most sensitive to liquidity, the crypto market faces significant short-term pressure that should not be underestimated. $SOL BTC — scenario I am monitoring
I am watching two areas for a possible buying reaction.
The first is around 81k, with liquidity at the lows + OB for possible absorption.
If it doesn't hold, I look at 78k–79k, with Fibonacci + breaker.
I don't want to anticipate: I expect liquidity capture + absorption + flow change.
With confirmation, I still see room to target 89k. Geopolitical sell-off, institutions scooping up! Crypto rotation indicators have "rang the bell"
Trump rejects Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge suppressing risk assets, BTC falls from 87,000 to below 83,000. But on-chain data reveals another side: BlackRock withdrew 1,150 BTC and 11,800 ETH from Coinbase Prime within 40 minutes, worth about $127 million. ETF net inflows for the week are about $2.4 billion, the largest record since last October
Altcoin season index climbs to 62%, a significant jump from 50% a week ago. BTC market cap dominance drops to 57.1%, with 72.5% of altcoin trackers outperforming Bitcoin, while altcoin perpetual contract open interest barely increased, indicating rotation is driven by spot trading, structurally healthier than the overheated period in 2021
RSI heatmap is a key tool to locate the next stop: RSI > 70 indicates overbought and caution, < 30 indicates oversold and potential catch-up. Sector rotation index standardizes dominance rate into an oscillator; rising altcoin oscillator means expanding risk appetite. Current altcoin spot trading volume is nearly four times that of BTC
Strategically, keep an eye on withdrawal trends from institutional addresses like BlackRock, RSI heatmap sector divergence, and rotation index resonance. Geopolitical events create entry windows, block trades point to direction, indicators confirm timing. This is not investment advice ʕ •ᴥ•ʔ
#美国启动4000万桶战略油储交换 #美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 @OKX成长学院 @星球社区助手 BTC just closed Q3 with a major recovery, while softer U.S. inflation data helped reduce pressure from the October rate-hike narrative. But here's the important part: A better macro headline doesn't automatically mean continuation. I want to see: → BTC hold above $83K → $85.5K reclaimed → ETH hold $2.66K → SOL reclaim $120 → volume confirm the move Confirmation > prediction. The next major move will tell us who was positioned correctly. Are you bullish or defensive for October?The third truth: Switchboard shuts down oracle, $29.1 billion DeFi "exposed"
This is the most underestimated and also the most fatal piece of news in this wave of SOL's plunge.
On September 19, Switchboard Technology Labs announced: all oracles will be completely discontinued effective immediately, with all support ending on September 25. The Solana DeFi ecosystem has only six days left to migrate.
Protocols like Kamino, Jito, MarginFi, and Drift are on the integration list. As of September 21, these four protocols collectively hold $29.1 billion in deposits. Kamino Lend holds $13.9 billion, Jito Liquid Staking holds $11.6 billion, Drift holds $315 million, and MarginFi holds $47 million.
$29.1 billion, six days, migrate oracles.
Do you understand the nature of this risk? This is not a "directional risk," this is a systemic risk. If the price feed freezes at the last value, the lending market will either pause or calculate based on outdated figures. Positions that were fully collateralized may be liquidated, and positions that should have been closed may continue to be held, creating bad debt for every depositor in the liquidity pool. $SOL $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年$PUMP
PUMP On-Chain Data Tracking: Leading Meme Token Issuer, Revenue Returning to High Levels
Data Source: DefiLlama (Pump consolidated scope, including Pump.fun token issuance curve + PumpSwap + end products). Data only, no operational advice. Interested parties may follow.
1. Project Fundamentals (On-Chain Scope)
Pump.fun is a meme token issuance platform originating on Solana. Users issue tokens and trade on the linked curve, with the platform charging a 1% fee plus graduation and execution fees; PUMP is its platform token with a total supply of 1 trillion tokens. The core tokenomics mechanism: about 50% of protocol net revenue is programmatically used by the contract to repurchase and burn PUMP (100% was executed before April 2026). DefiLlama's "Holders Revenue" item is the on-chain verifiable repurchase and burn amount.
2. Core Data (As of end of September)
Total fees in the last 30 days: $165 million; cumulative fees: $2.207 billion
Protocol revenue in the last 30 days: $52.89 million; cumulative protocol revenue: $1.33 billion
Repurchase and burn in the last 30 days: $23.64 million; cumulative repurchase and burn: $379 million
Based on repurchase data, about 17% of total supply (about 169 billion tokens) has been permanently burned
Horizontal comparison: Protocol revenue in the last 7 days is $16.07 million, ranking third in the entire market's protocol revenue list, only behind Tether and Circle, and just surpassing Hyperliquid.
3. Cycle Position
2024: Starting from zero, monthly volume growth;
January 2025: Historical peak, daily fees $15–17 million, directly reflecting the meme craze peak;
Mid-2025: Trough period, daily average falls to $2–3 million, about 1/6 of the peak;
Second half of 2025 to present: Multi-chain expansion (contributions from chains like Base start appearing in charts), revenue gradually recovering monthly, recent 7-day average daily fees about $6.9 million, 2–3 times the trough, trend still upward.
4. Noteworthy Ratios
Fee → Protocol revenue retention rate about 32% (last 30 days: 52.89M / 165M)
Protocol revenue → Repurchase and burn ratio about 45% (last 30 days: 23.64M / 52.89M), basically consistent with the official "50% of net revenue used for repurchase" rule
Cumulative dimension: $2.2 billion fees → $1.33 billion protocol revenue → $379 million repurchase and burn, every link in the value chain is verifiable on-chain#30-Year US Treasury Yield Breaks 5.6%, Hits Highest Since 2002
【30-year US Treasury yield is already at 5.6%, can $BTC still hold up?】
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.63%, the highest since 2002, rising for seven consecutive trading days. Even more absurdly, the core PCE in August was only 3%, below expectations, yet bond yields continue to rise.
This is a bit awkward. The market is now trading on more than just "whether the Fed will raise rates"; inflation, fiscal deficits, massive bond issuance, and long-term term premiums are all pushing up financing costs. The 10-year Treasury yield has also climbed to around 5.30%, clearly pushing down the valuation ceiling for risk assets.
BTC is currently hovering around 83,000, with spot ETF net inflows of about $66.19 million on September 29, but the capital momentum is far less intense than in previous days.
The focus now is whether the 30-year Treasury yield can fall back below 5.5%. If it can't be pushed down here, even with ETF support, BTC will find it hard to comfortably surge upward. Conversely, if long-term bond yields start to decline and ETF inflows pick up again, then the pressure on the bond market can truly ease.🔥 US Treasury yields surge past 5%, mainstream coins collectively under pressure!
🟠 $BTC: Currently fluctuating around 83500, short-term weakness after breaking below 84020 on the 4-hour chart. Key support at 82563; if broken, watch 80126; on the upside, reclaiming 84020 is crucial, then observe resistance at 84999. The important thing now is whether the key levels can be recovered.
🔵 $ETH: Consolidating around 2690, with 2636—2721 still the core range. Without a clear breakout, the consolidation may continue; wait for a true breakout of the range to confirm direction.
🟣 $SOL: Currently around 119, with 117.26 as short-term defense; resistance exists between 121—122.93. SOL is more elastic, with faster fluctuations near key levels.
🟢 $UNI: Relatively weak in the short term, 8.58 is important support; resistance between 9.03—9.48 during the rebound. Whether the decline can be stopped depends on volume and absorption.
🟡 On the macro side, rising US Treasury yields continue to suppress risk appetite, and gold is also retreating. The overall daily structure is not yet completely broken, but the 4-hour chart has clearly weakened. Wait for confirmation at key levels; do not chase highs or sell lows.
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC, $ETH, and $TRX can represent three different perspectives: BTC reflects the overall market support strength, ETH reflects the DeFi capital market, and TRX reflects the flow of stablecoins and payment-related capital movements. Observing these three coins together provides a better understanding of how stablecoin capital flow drives the market, compared to simply watching the price fluctuations of a single coin.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $ZEC shows short-term strength, watch for a pullback
The close has surpassed the previous high, so the short-term trend can be tentatively considered upward. The recent high and low points in the past few hours are 1,437.48 / 1,398.21 USDT, and the just-closed 5-minute candle is at 1,441.01 USDT. However, the volume in the last 15 minutes has not significantly increased, indicating that the breakout currently lacks volume support. We need to see increased activity going forward to be more confident.
For now, focus on whether the price can hold this level. If the close falls back below the previous high, this upward assumption must be withdrawn. $NMR is a hopeless mess. As a retail investor, I accidentally saw that its circulating supply is only a bit over 7 million coins and thought I had found a treasure. I got excited and started going long at 14.5, fearing missing out on a sudden surge, so I opened a 10x leverage. Then the nightmare began: it kept dropping, I kept adding positions, shouldering a long position heavier than Mount Tai, but expectations couldn't beat the ruthless tactics of the market makers. Yesterday afternoon at 11.25, I was finally squeezed dry and force-liquidated by the evil Huang Shiren. The crypto world is full of tricks; we retail investors can only be cut!ETH Direction Price Logic
Strong Resistance 2,750-2,850 Bearish liquidation dense area + previous high
Weak Resistance 2,730-2,740 1-hour BOLL upper band
Current 2,690 Between whale long and short opening prices
Weak Support 2,635-2,650 Short-term support
Strong Support 2,583-2,600 Whale long average opening price The second truth: The 5.27% U.S. Treasury yield is truly a knife held to the neck
On September 28, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury briefly surged to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year yield rose to 5.57%, the highest since 2002.
What does 5.27% mean?
You buy U.S. Treasuries lying down and earn a risk-free interest of 5.27% annually. And what about SOL? It generates no cash flow, pays no dividends, and no interest. When a zero-coupon asset faces the highest risk-free rate in 17 years, institutional capital’s choice is obvious.
To make matters worse: Bitcoin’s market dominance is approaching 60%. On September 2, BTC dominance reached 59.57%, while the altcoin season index was only 29, far below the threshold of 75. Capital is concentrating on BTC, while altcoins continue to bleed.
Think about it: when risk aversion rises, money flows out of altcoins and into the most liquid BTC. SOL is not crushed by its own story; it is crushed by the 5.27% U.S. Treasury yield and Bitcoin’s “siphon effect.” $SOL $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $XCH enables end users to easily allocate their unused storage on the Chia Network blockchain through partnerships with storage and device manufacturers, earning rewards directly or from pools.
Currently, the market for second-hand storage is somewhat limited. Enterprises tend to retire data center storage after three years. These drives often have significant remaining useful life, but it is not feasible to rely on them for critical data storage when they reach their mean time to failure. These data center discards are ideal for farming, and we believe we have created a market for them that keeps them out of landfills, significantly extending and making their life more environmentally friendly. The Circular Drive initiative aims to formalize this market and subsequently support the final recycling of drives, adding valuable life.
Two trends in NAND/SSD storage are also very promising for Chia farming. By 2031, and likely much sooner, consumer solid-state drives will be cheaper than hard drives of the same size. This will significantly reduce the energy required to farm Chia plots.
Additionally, there is a category of NAND storage that is generally considered waste today but can easily be converted into commercially viable farming space.
Finally, if it turns out we have underestimated the availability of surplus storage, the adoption of Chia will begin to put pressure on the global storage business, driving down the cost per TB and storage energy consumption for everyone. We believe this is a social good Europe has licenses ≠ Able to operate in the US: The biggest illusion of SatPay globalization
⚠️ Investment research ideas only, not investment advice
Many investors mistakenly believe that because Mobilum holds the EU MiCA VASP and Polish payment licenses, SatPay can launch globally, including in the US market. This is a major misconception.
The passport effect of the EU MiCA license is limited to the European Economic Area; the license does not automatically apply in the US. The US enforces federal plus 50 state separate regulations. To offer crypto asset + debit card + lending services in the US, one must apply for MTL money transmission licenses state by state, while also complying with multiple regulators such as the SEC and FinCEN. There is no single license covering the entire US.
SatPay is a composite financial service involving BTC staking loans, stablecoin exchange, and physical card consumption. The regulatory review standards in the US are much higher than in Europe. Although Mobilum has established a US subsidiary, it has not yet obtained the full set of compliance qualifications for US retail users.
Mobilum is a small fintech; the cost and time to apply for licenses in all US states are high and lengthy. The current licenses only support pilot operations in the European region.
Launching SatPay in Europe is one thing; entering the US market and achieving a global narrative is a completely different matter. Equating the European pilot with global launch is the biggest expectation illusion in the BTCFi narrative.PONS On-Chain Data Tracking: After the Surge, Returning to Normal
Sharing a project I've been closely watching recently — Pons (token PONS), a token issuance platform on Robinhood Chain (similar to the Pump.fun model). Data source: DefiLlama.
1. What it does
Users can issue tokens on Pons at a very low cost (about 0.0005 ETH) with one click; each token has a fixed total supply of 1 billion. The platform charges a 1% transaction fee. Note that this is a third-party project by Pons Labs, not an official Robinhood product.
The key lies in the revenue-sharing model:
70% of the transaction fee goes to the token issuer, 30% goes to the protocol;
About 80% of the protocol's income is used to buy back and burn PONS on the market, and the remaining 20% supports the team.
This creates a flywheel effect: the more tokens issued → the more transactions → the more fees → the more buybacks and burns → increased deflation → attracting more people to issue tokens. According to the official disclosure at the end of August, about 29% of the total PONS supply has been burned.
2. Recent on-chain data (as of the end of September)
Total fees in the last 30 days: $140 million, cumulative fees $184 million
Protocol income in the last 30 days: $24.08 million, cumulative $33.69 million
Income for token holders (buybacks and burns) in the last 30 days: $16.52 million, cumulative $20.06 million
At the peak in early September, daily fees surged to about $11 million, ranking just behind Tether, Uniswap, and Circle in the entire market's protocol fee leaderboard. On September 2, it was even included by Binance Alpha.
3. But note: the heat is fading
The daily bar chart makes it clear: from July to mid-August, daily fees were under $1 million; it started to pick up at the end of August, peaked around September 5 (about $11 million daily), then steadily declined. By late September, it stabilized at $1.5–2.5 million daily, only about one-fifth of the peak. Protocol income similarly dropped from daily millions to $200,000–$300,000.
In other words, "70% of the monthly fees were contributed by one week" — this explosive pattern has passed, and now it has entered a normal operating phase. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Yesterday afternoon, the Solv project team responded with a bunch of grandiose empty talk, basically just not wanting to return the coins
The intuition is very clear now, since those 50 BTC have already gone into Solv's pocket, the coins probably can't be recovered
All I can say is, the person involved on 𝕏 still has to pay the price for their own understanding