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$SOON As expected, the market is counterintuitive. I still couldn't resist shorting in. After the surge, profit-taking has started. Retail short sellers have already begun. Let's see how it goes today. I'll hold for now without moving.
The $0.45-$0.48 range above has become a strong short-term resistance.
Long-short ratio: Retail shorts
OKX retail long-short ratio is still only 0.68 (extremely bearish or sidelined), Binance retail ratio is 1.13 (balanced).
For whales: whale count long-short ratio is 1.05, whale position long-short ratio is 1.05.
$ETH $BTC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 BTC has finally started to gain momentum, rising nearly 3% in one day
Looking at charts across several timeframes, the 1-hour and 4-hour MACD both show golden crosses, with the red bars still expanding, clearly indicating a short-term upward trend. On the daily chart, the fast and slow lines are almost converging, the green bars have shrunk to nearly invisible, and it feels like a golden cross could happen at any moment. If the daily chart confirms a golden cross, this rally might be more than just a rebound; it could signal a reversal.
The current price is 86565, very close to the previous high of 87374. Above that, 86888 is today's highest point, and beyond that is the resistance at 87374. On the downside, support levels to watch are 86000 first, then 85000, and further down around 84000.
I haven't looked closely at the contract data, but with this rally, shorts have probably been liquidated heavily. Chasing highs now carries significant risk since it's just a step away from the previous high. If it fails to break through, the pullback could be swift.
I won't chase now. Either wait for a volume breakout above 87374 and a stable hold before considering entry; or wait for a pullback near 86000 or 85000 to see if there's buying support.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC
This is my personal view and does not constitute investment adviceTransaction malleability was one of the earliest and ugliest technical debts in cryptocurrency. The speed at which DOGE repaid this debt shows it does not procrastinate on technical liabilities.
In February 2014, when Mt.Gox shut down, the hole was attributed to transaction malleability: attackers rewrote signature encodings and replaced transaction IDs, causing the exchange's ledger to think payments failed and thus resend payments repeatedly. This vulnerability hung over all chains sharing the same source code, including DOGE.
Its response chain was very short. In April 2014, version 1.7 replaced the base with Bitcoin 0.9, and the malleability fix was integrated into the client. In November 2015, version 1.10 introduced v3 blocks, pushing BIP66 strict DER signatures to the consensus layer, closing the encoding loophole. Bitcoin completed the same step in July 2015; DOGE was a few months later, but the teams differed by orders of magnitude, so for a volunteer project, this was not a delay.
Fixing malleability has no narrative value and does not attract new users. To judge engineering quality, the speed of addressing old issues is more reliable than the volume of stories told. $DOGE’s report card: it recognizes debt quickly and repays it without delay. Happy National Day! Reviewing mid-term and short-term trading ideas. BTC current price is 86500, ETH 2733. To start with the conclusion, this month is biased towards bullish. Both BTC and ETH should reach new highs. Personally, I lean towards BTC pushing near 100,000 and ETH around 3000. Returning to the short term, after more than a week of consolidation, BTC's short-term support is at 822, corresponding to ETH above 2560. These two levels are good points in the previous consolidation zone. Currently, they have not been broken. So if it pulls back near 83, you can go long with a target near 90,000. For ETH, above 2600. But at present, I think more consolidation is needed; the structure is incomplete. Just now, I lightly shorted ETH at 2740, with a target of 100 dollars. OverVitalik's privacy roadmap centers on "using cryptographic tools to protect user data."
SAFE Network 4.0's auditable privacy mechanism—transactions are encrypted by default to protect user privacy and can only be decrypted after approval by two-thirds of 49 supernodes—provides a practical solution balancing privacy and compliance.
Vitalik says "privacy needs protection," SAFE Network says "privacy needs protection, but malicious transfers must be traceable." Both share the same philosophy but emphasize different implementation paths.
Ethereum took 15 years to evolve from a "ledger" to a "cryptographic world computer." SAFE Network took 12 years to evolve from "private payments" to "auditable privacy."
Different directions, but both address the same question: On-chain, do you have the right to decide who can see your data?
#安网公链SAFE4BTC is back in motion.
Price: $86,513
24h: +2.72%
The key level right now is $87,232.
BTC is testing this daily resistance, and a clean breakout could open the path toward:
$88,960
$92,418
Short-term support is sitting around $85,024, while losing that level could bring the $83K area back into focus.
Another thing worth watching: $121M in short liquidations hit in the last hour, showing how aggressive the move has been.
Market sentiment is at 72, meaning greed is already present. $BTC
New monthly candle started and we are pumping at the start of the month,
Possible we hunt out early shorts till the current highs (87.4k),
Then dump down to flush the over leveraged longs before starting the next leg up,
We also created mFVG below, which is one of the main confluence that I am taking for the dump.
Overall, I am still biased towards the shorts until price tests 75k one last time,
Whi longs for the next leg up to 95-100k.
#USJobsDataToday $BTC just surged to a high of 86914, now slightly pulling back, hovering around 86500.
Looking at the technicals, the 1-hour moving averages are currently beautifully diverging upwards.
However, note one detail: the current price has already pulled away quite a bit from the MA30 (around 84411). The short-term feels a bit like "running too fast," just like a person running, when you sprint too hard you need to catch your breath.
The most encouraging news is from Glassnode, which said the sell wall at 85,000 has been completely absorbed by buy orders, indicating the resistance above has been forcefully eaten away.
Look at the latest candlestick, it left a fairly long upper shadow, indicating that when it surged above 86900, some started to take profits, creating selling pressure.
Take another look at the volume at the bottom; the breakout indeed came with increased volume. If the volume can't keep up next, there's a high chance it will consolidate sideways at a high level or slightly pull back, waiting for the short-term moving averages below (like the MA10 around 85235) to catch up.
The current market situation is: bulls are very strong, but the short-term is a bit overheated. Keep a close eye on the strength of the pullback and volume changes, don't get carried away chasing highs, and view this sharp rise rationally.Market Express｜Direct breakout upward, the market completely breaks through the upper resistance $BTC
Current price 86439, a big bullish candle on the 4-hour chart exploded directly, breaking through the heavy resistance at 85200 from before, reaching a high of 86888.
After repeatedly emphasizing the key support at 82500 held, the bullish logic is fully realized. External negative factors like US Treasury yields and crude oil disturbances have completely failed, with supporting funds exerting strength, directly breaking the consolidation box upward.
The 4-hour Bollinger Bands have fully opened upward, all moving averages are in bullish alignment, volume is simultaneously expanding, and the liquidity above is being continuously cleared.
Short-term nearby resistance is in the 86800-87400 previous high range, where there will be a wave of selling pressure, making a spike high and pullback very likely.
The previous resistance at 85200 has now turned into the first level of support; strong support remains at 82500. As long as it does not fall back below this level, the major bullish trend will not change.
⚠️ Note, after a sharp rally, do not blindly chase the high. There may be a short-term pullback and shakeout; do not let the surge in sentiment cloud your judgment.
Long positions have already captured significant profits and can be partially taken off the table in batches, retaining a base position to play the previous high; continue holding spot positions and wait for the market to unfold.
DYOR, manage your position risk. $BTC $ETH
⚠️ Market review, not investment advice #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Judging whether a public blockchain has vitality, the number of full nodes is more convincing than the price. DOGE's full node scale is far smaller than BTC's, but it ranks first among similar coins like SHIB, PEPE, and WIF, and is increasing month by month — this detail deserves a closer look.
Full nodes mean someone is willing to dedicate a machine to store the complete ledger and continuously verify every transaction. This is not like buying coins, which can be done with a tap on the screen; running a node consumes bandwidth, hard drive space, and electricity, with no direct profit. Choosing to run a node is like voting with real money, acknowledging that the chain is worth maintaining. DOGE was born as a joke, its code hasn't changed much for years, and logically it should have been forgotten long ago. But the node data tells another story: a group of people continuously invest resources to keep this network running normally.
The situation is different for similar coins. Most of them are issued on other people's chains and do not have their own node networks. When hype comes, transaction volume spikes; when hype fades, only contract addresses remain on the chain. $DOGE has its own chain, its own miners, and its own nodes — this is the structural difference between it and later entrants.
The monthly growth of nodes is a slow variable. Slow variables don't create headlines but determine how long a chain can survive. Price is left to the market, the ledger is left to the nodes — and since the latter is still growing, it means this story is not over.#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls impact on gold mainly lies in the employment data determining rate hike expectations, which in turn influence the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, ultimately affecting Bitcoin.
Strong nonfarm data indicates resilience in the U.S. economy, reinforcing market expectations for continued Fed rate hikes, strengthening the dollar and pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher. As a result, gold, being a non-yielding asset, faces higher opportunity costs and price pressure.
Conversely, weak nonfarm data cools rate hike expectations, leading to a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, giving gold upward momentum.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $LTC's strong momentum continues, but crowding risk is also rising
$LTC 24h +3.40%, current price 69.85. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 80 and 69 respectively. The strength is real, and so is the crowding. The question is not whether it can continue, but who is willing to catch it on the first pullback.
Volume does not support the price movement: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.45 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
Putting emotions aside, the structure provides very specific information. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 68.3995, currently strong; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 68.1896, also currently strong. The short-term cycle reveals changes, the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of crowding; when they conflict, beware of oscillations. You cannot just pick the side that suits you.
What is most scarce now is not directional slogans, but the willingness to wait for validation. The closer to the key level, the more the price should be allowed to do its work before deciding if the original judgment holds. Let the key level give the result first, then discussing direction will be more honest. Do you think this is normal overheating in a strong trend, or has the risk already run ahead of the space? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.$ZEC is showing some signs of a waterfall drop!!! It broke 1300!!! The rebound has again climbed back above 1400
24-hour decline of -6.55%, after a rapid sell-off downward, it consolidated sideways all morning, then quickly surged, steadily aiming to explode high leverage for trend-following short sellers.
- RSI6=13.38, already deep in the oversold zone, short-term technical rebound repair is needed
- MACD: DIF continues running below DEA, green bars continue to expand, bearish momentum is still releasing
- KDJ all dropped to low levels, there is an oversold rebound, but the major downtrend has not yet reversed
Key levels
Resistance: 1460; the first rebound target is 1400, only if it climbs back above 1400 will the short-term downtrend ease
Support: 1300, if 1300 is effectively broken, the next phase of decline will begin
BTC and ETH are still oscillating at high levels, Bitcoin is grinding back and forth between 82000-85000, today it broke through 86000, Ethereum is tugging between 2600-2800. No sign of a breakout yet, let's wait for tomorrow's nonfarm payroll data.
The above represents personal opinions only and does not constitute investment advice #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $ETH $ZEC $ETH current price is 2732.58, I am the boss.
At the 15-minute level, it surged to 2747.59 then quickly pulled back, forming a long upper shadow. The selling pressure above has truly emerged, with long and short positions at 56 to 44, and the divergence is clearly increasing.
Short-term resistance is around 2747-2750, which is the recent high. To continue breaking upward, volume must increase and hold above this range. The first key support below is 2713, which is the supertrend line position.
Holding 2713 means the market can maintain strong consolidation and continue to test previous highs; if volume breaks down below, a short-term pullback will start to test the 2687 platform buy zone.
This rise is completely driven by BTC, with independent buying strength not very strong. With macro data approaching, the market may experience rapid back-and-forth sweeps anytime, so high leverage must be handled with extra caution. After the long upper shadow appears, do not blindly chase the rally; better to wait for a pullback to confirm support than to catch the selling pressure at high levels. The market rhythm is switching very fast now, with surges and drops happening within minutes.
#ETH surge and pullback showing selling pressure
#Market linkage warns of rapid shakeouts
$BTC $ETH
Market observation only, not investment adviceOrder Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book, excluding fees
$SCR bidirectional large order cost cannot be fully estimated: slippage for buy and sell orders equivalent to 10,000 USDT is 0.79%/0.78%. For the last order book at the 100,000 scale, at least one side is underfilled, and the bidirectional large order cost within the window lacks a complete calculation.
$MEGA large order slippage has significantly increased: slippage for buy orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT is 0.11% and 0.70%. The cost difference mainly comes from order size, with no obvious asymmetry between buy and sell sides.
$CT large order slippage has significantly increased: slippage for buy orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT is 0.09% and 0.40%. The cost difference mainly comes from order size, with no obvious asymmetry between buy and sell sides. 🚨 A breakout isn’t confirmed just because price touches the line. The real test comes after the breakout.
$BTC is currently moving around $82K–$85K. Reaching $85K is only the first step — what matters is whether the 4H candle can close and hold above it, followed by a pullback that stays above the previous range. Ideally, we also want to see volume picking up during the breakout.
#DailyOrbit • Natural mismatch between financial services and county-level needs: Traditional financial institutions' risk control and product systems are designed for standardized entities in large cities. When facing dispersed small and micro business entities and farmers in counties, there is generally information asymmetry, high single transaction costs, and difficulty in risk management, which easily leads to the awkward situation of "having money but unable to lend it out."
• Easy to fall into "detaching from the real economy and turning virtual": Without support from local real industries, relying solely on financial policy easing, funds are likely to flow into real estate, private lending, and other fields, which instead drives up local operating costs and further squeezes the survival space of the real economy.
A more suitable breakthrough path for counties
It is entirely possible to break away from the mindset of "rigidly adopting international logic and simply piling up financial resources" and follow an endogenous development path of "rooted in local culture, supported by characteristic industries, and precise financial irrigation":
2. Transform historical culture into core IP assets: Instead of large-scale demolition and standardized reconstruction, deeply explore unique local historical and cultural resources, such as the red culture of Li Dazhao in Laoting and the folk culture of eastern Hebei, turning these irreplaceable cultural resources into distinctive cultural tourism IPs, creating differentiated local cultural experience scenarios rather than copying international community commercial templates.
3. Rely on local advantageous industries to solidify the financial foundation: For counties rich in energy resources, fully follow the transformation paths of Shenmu in Shaanxi and Xiaoyi in Shanxi, extending from existing mining and industrial bases to fine chemicals and downstream new energy industry chains, forming stable cash flow and industrial clusters. This is the most solid underlying support for financial revitalization. 🚨 Nonfarm Payrolls Tonight! What exactly is everyone panicking about? The logic has completely changed
Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the September Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released, and many people are already holding their breath.
On the surface, it’s just a jobs report, but the current market logic is completely different from before.
The market currently expects an increase of 85,000 to 90,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding around 4.1%.
But the real pitfalls go far beyond the headline number.
💣 First big pitfall: The overlooked revision of previous data
Don’t just focus on whether the newly released number looks good or not.
The Fed has been caught off guard several times recently: initial data looks decent, but when updated next month, historical data is sharply revised downward.
Even if this month’s new jobs fall within expectations, if last month’s employment data is heavily revised down, the market will still interpret it as weakening employment, causing violent market swings. Revisions are an invisible landmine many overlook.
💣 Second big pitfall: The era of “bad news = good news” is temporarily over
The old script was simple: weak jobs → expectations of rate cuts → risk assets rally.
Now that script may no longer work.
If new jobs fall below 50,000 or even turn negative, capital may not cheer for rate cuts.
The market will directly trade on a recession narrative, and panic selling will come first, with risk assets like $BTC and US stocks facing severe shakeouts.
💣 Third big pitfall: Wage growth is more deadly than job additions
Even if new job numbers are mediocre, if hourly wages and hours worked grow faster than expected, the shadow of inflation won’t dissipate.
This will reinforce the Fed’s judgment to keep rates high for longer, causing US Treasury yields to rise again and continuing to suppress risk asset valuations.
✅ So what does the market really want?
A moderate increase of 80,000 to 120,000 jobs.
Employment cools slowly but doesn’t collapse, wages weaken simultaneously, and the soft landing story continues to hold. In this scenario, BTC and US stocks are more likely to see favorable conditions.
Both extremes—either very strong or very weak employment—will cause severe short-term volatility.
👉 A practical tip for ordinary traders:
In the few minutes after the data release, spikes, wicks, and false breakouts are normal.
Don’t rush to open positions immediately; prioritize watching the market, wait for the first round of emotional volatility to settle, and see the true pricing direction before making your next move.
Tonight, patience is more important than courage.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Damn… $ETH is climbing again. 😭 Shorted at 2,714.89 with 3 $ETH at 100x leverage. Now trading around 2,739, with the position showing roughly -90% / -73U. Only about 40 bucks away from liquidation. 💀 I literally said yesterday that survival comes first, yet today I couldn’t resist trying to catch the top again. Watching $ETH grind higher little by little is seriously stressful. My heart is racing, but I’m still hesitating to close the position, thinking it might start moving sideways afterwLooking at these two lush green position charts, and then thinking about how the A-shares market is on holiday while the overseas markets are partying every day, I’m so angry I want to smash the exchange through the internet cable!
This ZEC trade, 50x full position long, opened at 1394, now dropped to 1376, floating loss of 16.62U, negative 65.49%. Liquidation price 1252, maintenance margin ratio 642%. I buy long and it falls, as if the market maker is right behind my screen, just waiting for me to get on board and then smash the price!
The ZHIPU trade is even worse, 10x full position long, opened at 92.42, now down to 78.29, floating loss of 64.85U, negative 152.88%. Liquidation price 53.53, maintenance margin ratio also 642%. This junk has been steadily falling all along, I don’t even know what was wrong with me to come back and catch the falling knife, purely remembering the wins and forgetting the losses!
What’s the most infuriating? The A-shares holiday! Market closed from October 1st, while overseas good news keeps popping out one after another—Micron’s explosive earnings, cooling PCE data, Bitcoin surging to 85,000, ZEC being pumped by institutional money to squeeze shorts. And what about me? My A-shares account is locked tight, not a penny can move; my crypto account is open, but every trade I open loses, and when it loses I just stubbornly hold on. Overseas markets are booming, and I’m clearly losing here.
The market on holiday is A-shares, the one getting hit is me. All the good news ferments during the holiday, and when the market reopens after the holiday, they’ve already risen, leaving me with a big bearish candle that opens high and closes low. Meanwhile, I’m stubbornly holding two long positions, my margin is getting lower day by day, the liquidation price is just below, waiting for the exchange to press the liquidation button for me.
I really give up, the market on holiday is A-shares, the one going bankrupt is me. Others rest during the holiday, I’m lying in the ICU waiting for the liquidation message. Fine, destroy it, give me back my money, I want to go back to the countryside! #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 $BTC $ETH $ZEC In 2020, when I first reached a million, I went to buy an expensive house. Buying a house is not wrong. After all, when you reach middle age, you still need a fixed place to live, but you shouldn't buy an expensive house. How can a house be treated as an investment? It simply can't outperform the US stock market index and Bitcoin. Because I bought an expensive house, I lost more than 2.4 million, and I am still paying for this wrong decision, taking responsibility.
In 2021, I showed off in front of friends, and as a result, I lent money that has not been repaid yet. When you have money, you should be low-key, never flaunt wealth, and of course, never lend money. I thought I was helping him, but he treated me like a sucker. Those 40,000 yuan showed me his character and selfish genes.
Also, when you have some money, you can't lose control and invest recklessly. You really shouldn't invest in things you don't understand. I blindly invested in things I didn't understand and ended up losing 100,000 yuan. Later, I was scammed out of 150,000 yuan by two obvious high-return scams, and another 50,000 yuan by a private equity project recommended by a big influencer. These are bloody lessons; it's not easy for ordinary people to save money, and it's too easy to be exploited.
From now on, I will no longer buy houses, won't buy cars for the time being, and even if I do, I won't buy expensive cars. If I need a car, I'll just take a taxi. Whether rich or poor, don't flaunt wealth, and don't lend money to anyone. If the relationship is very good, just give a little without expecting it back. Also, don't get involved in others' karma; respect others' destinies.It's not retail investors chasing the rally—someone bought about 654,000 UNI through Flowdesk over a month.
According to ChainCatcher/BlockBeats/Lookonchain on 10/2: a whale starting with 0xf7AD bought approximately 654,288 UNI at an average price of about $7.17 via Flowdesk in the past month, worth about $4.69 million; unrealized gains monitored are about $1.15 million. Compared to the institutional ETH-to-UNI swap of about 3.125 million UNI on 10/1, this is a different entity's monthly continuous purchase via Flowdesk. Unrealized gains ≠ realized profits, monitored addresses ≠ confirmed entities. At the time of writing, OKX UNI is about $9.23. Not investment advice.Watching three different setups 👀
$AAVE is showing momentum, but I’d rather wait for a pullback or clean breakout-retest than chase strength.
$DOGE remains weak. The key is rebound quality—not simply how many green candles appear.
$PENDLE is still under pressure. I want to see selling slow down and price reclaim key resistance before calling a reversal.
Momentum matters, but entry discipline matters more.
$AAVE $DOGE $PENDLE
#USIranOilTensions
#StrategyBuys1665BTC
#OKXNOW：SeeWhat'sNext Creating state becomes more expensive, but this is not the protocol intentionally punishing developers.
The Glamsterdam plan aims to increase and separately measure the cost of creating state because adding new accounts or storage slots on-chain not only consumes computation at the moment the transaction occurs but also causes nodes to store, read, and synchronize more data over the long term. If the old Gas price only reflects immediate execution, the fees paid by users may be lower than the long-term resource costs borne by the network, with the difference ultimately absorbed by all nodes collectively. The goal of repricing is to make fees more aligned with the actual burden, rather than simply raising prices for all operations indiscriminately. Some ordinary transfers and computations may become cheaper, while state-intensive applications will need to reassess their designs. For $ETH, reasonable pricing can protect node operability and also force applications to reduce ineffective storage. The cost is that some contract business models will change, even exposing businesses that previously relied on underestimated resource costs. A healthy upgrade should not promise that everything becomes cheaper for everyone but should make it clearer who uses what resources and why they pay.
Repricing will also change the relative costs between applications: designs that write less state and reuse existing data will have an advantage, while models that accumulate invalid state over the long term will bear more realistic costs.$CORE CORE True Trading Blood and Tears Record｜Favoring CORE, 30-Day Maximum Drawdown 86.83%
Secretly betting the entire family savings on CORE, determined to hold on and wait for a rebound, fantasizing that surviving through it would recover the losses. Reality dealt a harsh blow, the principal quickly shrank, the account plunged from profit directly into huge losses, dragging savings, mentality, and family pressure into the mire.
Account Performance Overview
Trading Tag: Favoring CORE
Win Rate in Last 30 Days: 57.27%
30-Day Maximum Drawdown: 86.83%
Current Asset Amount: $717.10
Total Profit/Loss: -$18,977.93
Although the win rate is close to 60%, and it seems there are quite a few profitable trades, a single deep drawdown wiped out all profits and severely damaged the principal.
Many CORE holders are trapped in the same predicament:
Firmly believe in the BTC-Fi narrative, optimistic about the Satoshi Plus consensus, and expect the KBW hype to drive a market rebound. Always think it’s just a short-term correction, hold on to wait for breakeven, reluctant to stop loss, getting stuck deeper and deeper.CORE panic selling escape, waiting quietly for sentiment recovery under hedging strategy
Currently, I mainly hold spot positions and have opened some short positions for risk hedging to control overall drawdown.
From the market perspective, as BTC strongly surged past 86,000, the market cleared a wave of high-leverage chips. CORE is following the overall market sentiment to return, panic selling has weakened, and bullish confidence is gradually recovering.
Personal inference: When the panic selling is completely released, CORE is expected to retest the resistance zone around 0.025 above. If it can break through effectively, the mid-term target can further look toward around 0.03.
Strategy sharing: For such highly volatile assets, using spot as a base and short positions for hedging is a way to control risk. Do not blindly chase highs, do not heavily bet on one side, wait for the non-farm payroll data to be released, and wait for sentiment to stabilize completely. $BTC $CORE #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 During the eight days of the National Day holiday, $ETH is very likely to "consolidate and oscillate under the $2,800 ceiling," with the real turning point occurring in the middle of the holiday on October 6.
First, let's look at the current position: the price is steady above $2,700, up 11% in 30 days, and the structure has not deteriorated. However, it faces a hurdle it hasn't truly overcome in three years—the large range between $2,650 and $2,900, with $2,800 as the strong resistance in the middle. This level has repeatedly acted as both a top and bottom over the past few years, accumulating a large amount of trapped positions, and it won't be easily broken by a single bullish candle. The short-term support below is $2,650; if it truly breaks down, $2,592 (Fibonacci 0.786) is the lifeline for the bulls.
The clearest catalyst during the holiday is the Glamsterdam upgrade launching on the Sepolia testnet on October 6. This is the biggest upgrade since the Merge, incorporating PBS (Proposer/Builder Separation) into the consensus layer and raising the single-block gas limit from the current 60 million directly to 200 million, effectively tripling block capacity. This is a solid long-term positive for ETH's value, but note—this is only on the testnet; the mainnet upgrade is expected in Q4, so in the short term, it will be more sentiment-driven rather than a realization.
My judgment: during the National Day holiday, ETH will most likely oscillate between $2,650 and $2,800. Macroeconomic factors like upward revisions to PCE and fluctuating rate cut expectations will occasionally cause disturbances. Whether it can break above $2,800 with volume after the holiday will determine if it targets $3,000 or continues to stagnate Signal fulfilled! Bitcoin ate through the 85,000 sell wall, directly surging violently 📈🚀
The 85,000 USD sell wall that suppressed the market for a week was absorbed by buy orders, and many sell orders above were simultaneously withdrawn, greatly reducing upward selling pressure.
Today the market responded directly, with BTC surging from 84,400 all the way up, reaching a high of 86,888, firmly standing above 86,500.
After the resistance was broken, bulls opened up upward space, but the short-term gains are already large, with new resistance levels at 86,700‑87,000.
Don’t get overheated and rush in just because of the surge; after a rapid rise, it’s easy to see a wick and pullback, with 85,900‑86,000 becoming key support.
Data is for reference only; the market can reverse at any time. Don’t chase highs, set stop losses properly, and don’t get swept up by market sentiment.
$BTC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Tonight's non-farm payrolls are expected to add 90,000 jobs, but Bank of America is more pessimistic, only guessing 60,000, and also warns that the August seasonal adjustment might be reversed. The probability of a rate hike in October has already dropped to 25%. If this data softens further, the Federal Reserve might just lie low for the rest of the year. Friends, the bulls and bears are going to clash again— which side are you betting on? Why does being bearish get so much hate? 😅
I’m short $BTC, already closed half at 82,800 for a 1,500-point gain, and I’m holding the rest for a possible pullback.
I’m not trading every move—I simply have a bearish view and I’m sticking to it. The real test comes with tonight’s NFP data.
Let’s see what the market does. 👀
$ETH #加息预期推迟 #9月非农成下一关键
#AnthropicEyesNovIPO
#OKXNOW：SeeWhat'sNext
#TokenizedStocksOnAave With the current trend of BTC and ETH, I'm actually a bit cautious.
Looking at the one-hour chart, both are pushing upwards, but the volume has shrunk significantly. More importantly, the ETH/BTC daily chart has already weakened first; this signal is more worth watching than just looking at ETH's price changes.
My judgment is starting to change: the Q3 rebound might have already ended, and in Q4, BTC is likely to be strong while ETH remains weak.
Why? It's simple. If real capital were fully shifting to ETH, we should first see ETH/BTC continuously strengthening, then the funds would spread to altcoins. This sequence hasn't appeared at all; instead, BTC can still rebound while ETH is already falling behind.
So for now, I don't define this as any "new bull market start."
If ETH/BTC remains below the yearly moving average later, it means the funds haven't truly shifted over.
Short-term gains are possible, but don't mistake a rebound for a reversal.
I'm now more willing to watch BTC's strength or weakness, rather than seeing ETH pump and immediately fantasizing about an altcoin season. $BTC $ETH purchase was funded using approximately $142.7 million in net proceeds from MSTR stock sales.
Strategy is effectively continuing to use the public capital markets to expand its Bitcoin treasury.
Its model now connects:
• Equity markets
• Preferred securities
• Corporate financing
• Bitcoin accumulation
Whatever happens to BTC price in the short term, the scale is becoming difficult to ignore.
One public company now controls more than 847,000 BTC.
@BitcoinNewsStablecoin regulation has moved forward again
The U.S. Treasury Department has introduced a new arrangement: states can submit stablecoin certifications in advance, and issuers with a circulation scale below $10 billion can apply to proceed first.
Two signals are quite clear. First, a phased approach: smaller issuers get to the table first, without having to bear the heaviest compliance burden right away; second, division of labor: states intervene early, and how the federal and state levels coordinate will directly determine the actual speed of licensing and regulation later.
For ETH, the focus is not on price but on demand. Stablecoins are the most rigid use case on-chain, with the vast majority of issuance and transfers running on this chain. Once the compliance path is clear, the legal uncertainty over issuers decreases, boosting motivation for new issuance, additional issuance, and moving business on-chain, which in turn drives on-chain transfer and settlement demand.
But don’t rush to see this as an immediate positive. The specific certification standards and whether state and federal criteria will conflict are still undecided. Next, watch three things: the actual progress of applications and certifications, changes in total stablecoin issuance, and whether on-chain stablecoin transfer volume truly picks up.
$ETHReuters expects 90,000, Dow Jones expects 84,000, and ADP also reported 90,000 this week. Compared to last month's 162,000, employment is indeed cooling down, but it hasn't reached a rapid decline yet. $BTC $ETH $ZEC However, a pullback does not equal good news. The market was already expecting a pullback, and part of the expectation has been priced in. What can really fuel a rebound for BTC and ETH is the hourly wage data. If the hourly wage month-over-month can drop to 0.2% and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%, I would be more bullish on this combination. So as long as the employment numbers meet expectations, tonight's surprise will most likely come from wages. Before the data is released, reduce positions and wait to act until hourly wages and unemployment rates are confirmed together. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Nonfarm payroll expectations cooling + Fed "not rushing to raise rates" → Bitcoin mildly bullish.
If weaker than expected, it will rally; if stronger than expected, short-term bearish. Overall, oscillating with a bullish bias, do not chase highs, key focus on US Treasury yields and the dollar. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Tomorrow, I will only focus on three things.
First, 85,500.
If it holds steady and confirms a breakout, I will tend to follow the trend and be bullish, watching the upper range of 88,000 to 90,000 USD.
Second, 83,000.
If it breaks below and confirms, I will defend first; the short-term structure may weaken again.
Third, macro.
Currently, the Federal Reserve, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields have not given any particularly clear signals of easing.
So I will not directly conclude that the bull market has restarted just because of a rebound.
My approach is simple:
Follow the breakout, defend on the break, wait during consolidation.
After many years of trading, I understand more and more:
Opportunities are never lacking; what truly lacks is patience and risk control.
Tomorrow, I won’t guess the market.
Let the market tell me the direction. ETH Midday Analysis
ETH surged past 2720 at midday, reaching a high of 2747, close to the previous core resistance zone of 2716–2756.
Before tonight's non-farm payroll data release, market uncertainty is relatively high, and the data will directly determine the subsequent direction.
Trading Strategy
You can try a small short position with a stop loss set at 2756.
Logic: 2747 is an internal test within the resistance band, not yet firmly established above 2756, so there is a high probability of pressure and a pullback;
• If the price continues to rise, hitting the stop loss at 2756, it is considered a valid breakout, and the short strategy is void; you can reverse to go long;
• If pressure causes a pullback, continue to watch the lower side of the consolidation range;
• If you don't want to gamble on a preemptive test order, you can choose to wait and watch, entering the market after the non-farm data release and a clear market structure emerges, to avoid the risk of sudden stop-loss triggers due to data spikes.
Reviewing the original structure:
The short-term range lower boundary is 2580–2600, with the key swing watershed at Gann 2×1 position 2536.
Only consider going long if the non-farm data causes a quick spike down and stabilizes; if it breaks below 2580 effectively, stop bottom-fishing strategies.$BTC has pulled back up to 86600 again, and the short position at 83400 fortunately stopped out.
A couple of days ago, I opened a BTC short at 83400, expecting a pullback after a rally, thinking there was significant resistance around 84500 and hoping for a retracement.
But the market didn’t follow my script at all. Now BTC has risen above 86600, with a daily gain close to 3%, reaching a high of 87374. I can only say the bears got hit again this time.
What I want to understand is: is this rally just an emotional rebound, or has real capital actually returned?
On the news front, the latest US PCE inflation data came in below expectations, pushing BTC briefly up to $85500; however, US Treasury yields remain high, and the gains were subsequently pulled back. On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF ended a streak of 9 consecutive trading days of net inflows on September 30, with about $149 million net outflow. One side shows easing inflation pressure, the other shows fluctuating capital flows, so the market isn’t as unified as it seems.
Back to the chart, the previous high of 87374 is within sight, and we need to see if it can be effectively broken above; on the downside, watch if the 85000 area can turn into support. Today’s US employment data is also worth monitoring, as it may continue to influence interest rate expectations.
What I should do now is not rush to prove I was right initially, but to reassess the risk of this short position. If the reason for opening the position is invalid, I have to admit it; I can’t stubbornly hold a short-term trade as a belief just because I’m unwilling to accept being wrong.
The most costly part of trading is sometimes not the stop loss, but refusing to admit when you’re clearly wrong Brothers, this wave of Ethereum is really strong.
It rose 70.9% in Q3, significantly outperforming the market. Back in July, many people were still saying Ethereum might be done, but with a little push, it directly became the star asset of the quarter.
There are three core reasons. Market risk appetite has rebounded, and funds have started to refocus on the second largest crypto asset. Spot ETF inflows have increased, institutions are buying. DeFi on-chain activity has warmed up, the ecosystem heat is back, and the market narrative around Ethereum is being re-priced.
So if you look at its current trend, it rises a bit more than Bitcoin when going up, and falls a bit less than Bitcoin when going down—it's really solid.
Right now, Ethereum is oscillating between 2660 and 2743. From the three-stage upward structure, segments a, b, and c have shown divergence; on the 4-hour level, it’s a bit hard to keep rising. Next, it will either form a larger-level consolidation zone or directly pull back. Personally, I lean towards a larger consolidation zone, trading time for space.
But above the daily level, the bullish outlook remains unchanged; the uptrend is intact, just with a need to retest the trendline. When there’s no market movement, you can only scrape the scalp and do some range trading. $ETH $BTC $ZEC Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls showdown: BTC breaks 86,000, results revealed at 20:30 tonight
Check the market at 1 PM
BTC surged directly above 86,000, up nearly 3% in 24 hours
Tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time), the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released
The short-term trend depends entirely on this battle
Briefly on the connection between BTC and Nonfarm Payrolls
If Nonfarm is strong tonight, rate hike expectations heat up, funds withdraw, BTC comes under pressure
If Nonfarm is weak, rate hike expectations cool down, funds return, BTC continues to surge
Last night, the Fed Vice Chair and Williams both signaled no rush to raise rates
The probability of a rate hike in October has dropped from 70% to about 25%
So if tonight's data is weak, it's good news for BTC
Looking at the market
BTC pushed from 57,000 to 87,000, but this rebound lacked volume support
There is a large sell order cluster between 85,000 and 85,500 above, a tough resistance
Support below is first at 80,000, then 75,000
My judgment
I hold a small BTC long position with a cost near 86,000
Before the data at 20:30 tonight, I will not add to my position
My personal discipline is
If data is hawkish and BTC falls below 80,000, I will stop loss and exit
If data is dovish and BTC holds above 87,000, I will keep holding
I don't bet on data, I accept breakouts
At 20:30 tonight, which side are you betting on for Nonfarm?
Raise your hand if you hold BTC longs, report your count in the comments👇
$BTC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Midday Report: $BTC BTC surges past 86,500, SOL rockets 5% leading the charge! Just entered a long position on OKB, how to hold onto this rebound profit?
📝 Main Text
Good afternoon, brothers, this morning's market finally gave us a reason to cheer!
After several days of steady decline and consolidation, the market saw a strong rally this morning. BTC broke through multiple levels, reaching a high of 86,888, currently around 86,500, up 2.81% in 24 hours. SOL performed explosively, jumping straight from 116.62 to 123.76, a 5.06% surge. OKB followed passively, now around 122.23, up 0.65%.
📊 Market Snapshot: Bulls Launch Full Counterattack
BTC: The 85,000 sell wall has been absorbed, bulls break through strongly
On the 15-minute chart, MA5 (86,357) > MA10 (85,827) > MA20 (85,300), a classic bullish alignment, with SUPERTREND support moving up to 85,725. Glassnode data shows the 85,000 sell wall for Bitcoin has been fully absorbed by buyers. As long as the evening pullback does not break below 85,700, this rebound structure is very solid, with an upside target of 87,500-88,000.
SOL: Ecological benefits keep coming, funds flood in
SOL is the strongest performer today, mainly driven by ecological boosts such as Fiserv launching the Solana digital asset platform. The 15-minute moving averages show a bullish alignment, with SUPERTREND at 121.35. From 116.62 to 123.76, a gain of over 6% in just a few hours, indicating frantic capital accumulation. Resistance above is seen at 124-125.
OKB: Passive follow-up, weak momentum
OKB is currently priced around 122.23, up slightly 0.65% in 24 hours. Although the 15-minute moving averages also show a bullish alignment (MA5: 121.99), with SUPERTREND at 121.32, its gains lag clearly behind SOL and BTC. This indicates that the market's hot money is mainly in BTC and SOL, with OKB acting as a "follower."
📋 Position Diagnosis (Key Point)
Based on the position screenshot you sent, you currently opened a long OKB position at 122.27 (isolated 20x leverage):
· Entry price: 122.27
· Current mark price: 122.23
· Floating profit/loss: -0.14U (-0.37%)
· Margin: 38.02U
· Liquidation price: 118.59
This position is currently right around the cost line. Given the broad market rally this morning, your long direction is correct. But there are two risks to watch out for:
1. OKB’s weak momentum: The market surged, BTC broke previous highs, SOL jumped 5%, but OKB only rose 0.65%. If the market pulls back later, OKB will likely fall with the market rather than rise, possibly falling faster.
2. Approaching resistance: OKB’s 24-hour high is 122.36, and the current price is right at this resistance. Only a volume breakout above 122.5 can open the way to 125; if it fails, a pullback to 121.3 (SUPERTREND) is likely to find support.
3. High leverage: Although isolated 20x is safer than your previous 30x cross margin, the 38U margin takes up a large portion of your total assets (around 32U, previously 32.62U in the screenshot, may have changed), so the margin for error is still low.
💡 Midday Trading Suggestions
1. Set a breakeven stop loss: Immediately set stop loss at 121.5 (or near entry price 122.27). This position must not lose more money! If it unfortunately breaks below 121.3, it means today’s market rally was just a "one-day wonder," and OKB’s follow-up logic fails, so exit decisively.
2. Watch the market’s mood: OKB’s fate depends on BTC and SOL. If BTC’s afternoon pullback holds above 85,700 and SOL stays above 121, OKB may catch up with a supplementary rise. If BTC rallies then falls, don’t hesitate to close the OKB long.
3. Have reasonable profit expectations: Don’t expect OKB to have a big bullish candle like SOL. If OKB hits resistance around 123-124 in the afternoon, it’s recommended to take profits. Even a few U gained is good.
4. Avoid adding positions: Don’t add above 122, as the dense chip area may form a double top.
📌 Summary
The market exploded strongly this morning, BTC absorbed selling pressure and stood above 86,500, with SOL leading the gains. Your OKB long is currently at breakeven. The core task this afternoon is "protect breakeven stop loss and follow the market’s lead." If the market is strong, OKB follows and profits; if the market pulls back, cut losses decisively to stay safe.
Brothers, did you catch this rally? Do you think OKB can break 123 this afternoon? Let’s discuss in the comments👇#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Reasons for the rebound
September ended in green. $BTC approximately +7%, the best September in recent years. The real movement is in Q3. BTC +40%+, $ETH +70%.
ETF continuous inflows stopped at the end of the month. 9/30: BTC −$149 million, ETH −$60 million, $SOL −$11 million. Monday slowed down by about 80%, but some inflows still remain.
Fear and Greed 72. Market cap about $2.9–3.0T.
$SOL: Open USD operation, $1 billion liquidity commitment.
$ETH: Staking exit due to MetaMask incident. No loss of funds.
Macro: Friday's employment report. Interest rates still heavy.
The catalyst is the employment report. Closing price, not the opening price. #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
Brent crude oil returning to $100 is essentially a heavy macro blow to the crypto space.
When oil prices surge, inflation expectations become uncontrollable, and the hope for a Federal Reserve rate cut is very likely to be postponed. As global capital tightens, high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies, which rely on liquidity, will inevitably be the first to suffer, with overall valuations suppressed.
Secondly, there is the flow of funds. With escalating geopolitical risks, large capital instinctively clings to the safety of the US dollar and gold. In the short term, there will be a noticeable increase in funds withdrawing from the crypto market. Although Bitcoin is often called "digital gold," in the initial phase of real panic, it usually gets indiscriminately sold off along with US stocks to obtain liquidity.
Overall, the escalation of US-Iran tensions will amplify volatility in the crypto market and suppress its upside potential. When the macro environment is uncertain, the crypto space can hardly remain unaffected. We can watch the show, but let's not get carried away. $FIL
The positive aspect is long-term incremental growth, suitable for AI Agent memory and RWA document archiving.
But the boundaries must also be clear: it mainly focuses on cold archive storage, with orders releasing slowly, not a short-term explosive market.What exactly is everyone panicking about regarding the September nonfarm payrolls to be released tonight?
The market expects new jobs to be between 85,000 and 90,000, a significant slowdown compared to last month, with the unemployment rate steady around 4.1%.
The real trap is the revision of previous data.
The surface numbers look good but are useless; recently, the Fed has often been misled—data initially looks good but is sharply revised downward the following month. If this new job number meets expectations but last month's high data is significantly revised down, the market will still trade as if employment is deteriorating.
Bad news is no longer good news.
Previously, poor employment meant people expected rate cuts and happily pushed prices up. But if this time new jobs fall below 50,000 or even turn negative, capital won’t celebrate rate cuts but will panic sell, directly trading a recession.
Wage growth is even more critical than new job numbers.
If new jobs are average but hours worked and hourly wage growth exceed expectations, inflation concerns won’t dissipate, giving the Fed more reason to maintain high interest rates.
If new jobs remain steady in the moderate range of 80,000 to 120,000, the market will continue to follow the rate cut soft-landing logic, which is positive for BTC and US stocks. Once data swings to extremes—either a sharp rise or fall—it will trigger intense short-term shakeouts.
At 8:30 tonight, it’s recommended to watch the show first and wait for the initial wave of volatility to settle before making moves.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
$BTC 10.2 zec Public Silk Road
$ZEC Long position operation
Entry range: Buy on dip near 1330 low
Stop loss defense: 1300
Position scaling
First scale: Around 1380 (current position, near moving average)
Second scale: Around 1400
Third scale: Pressure zone above 1420-1440
Reference factors: Price is close to the upper Bollinger Band, where obvious resistance is expected; the golden cross below the zero axis is considered a rebound, not a strong bullish reversal, suitable for waiting on the right side for dip confirmation, not for chasing longs at high levels. But if following last night’s Silk Road long entry, you can wait for 1420.
Plan B
After breaking below 1300, operate short positions, just short at high levels, manage detailed points yourself. Yesterday set a stop at 1320 which was triggered, but bought near 1310, now with 80 points profit, don’t hold shorts too long.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Veteran crypto trader deleverages late at night, waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls! All BTC short positions are closed, leaving only ETH fishing solo, taking an extremely sober defensive stance before the storm.
BTC and ETH steadily rise with a healthy trend, but tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls are the real test. The biggest constraint in the current market is not ETFs, but the high interest rate environment—elevated yields keep risk asset valuations under pressure. I've fully closed my BTC shorts, leaving only one ETH position hanging. The logic is straightforward: if Nonfarm is weak, the pause on rate hikes bets heat up (bullish); if strong, the shadow of more hikes this year looms (bearish). Fortunately, the PCE leading data supports a slightly bullish bias tonight, but I won't act blindly before the news is confirmed.
The closer to the big event, the more cautious I get—betting on certainty, not direction. Large positions are not reckless gambles but strategic retreats before the news drops.Since 2013, Bitcoin's October performance has risen 10 times out of 13. The average return is 18.52%, with a median of 12.73%. In October 2021, it rose 42.92%. In October 2013, it doubled directly by 60%.
In the crypto community, this has a special name: Uptober.
Every year around this time, the whole network starts hyping it. KOLs begin shouting "October must rise," the community starts painting big pictures, and you start wondering "maybe I should go all in."
But today I want to talk about: why Uptober will fail in 2025, and what exactly is being bet on this October.
🧊 First, let's pour some cold water: October 2025.
A textbook Uptober start. Bitcoin surged to a historic high of $126,080 at the beginning of October, and the record of 7 consecutive years of October gains seemed rock solid.
Then Trump threw out a 100% tariff threat on China.
On October 10, over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in one day. The largest liquidation day in crypto history.
By the end of the month, Bitcoin closed down about 4%. Uptober turned into Rektober.
Seven years of consecutive gains ended overnight.
Patterns are always meant to be broken.
💊 September this year was indeed impressive.
Bitcoin closed September up 6.33%-7.33%, marking the best September performance since 2013. Ethereum rose 8.77% in September, also the second-best September on record.
Historically, September is Bitcoin's worst month—with an average return of -2.34%. Four consecutive Septembers of gains is the longest streak in existing data.
Bitcoin's cumulative Q3 gains approached 40%, poised to be the strongest Q3 since 2017.
Strong September, even stronger October? Historical patterns say: yes.
But the market never runs solely on historical patterns.
🎯 This October, there are three cards on the table.
Bullish cards:
September +6.33%, the second-best September historically, laying momentum for October
Citibank raised Bitcoin's 12-month target price from $82,000 to $113,000, citing increased ETF inflows and improved macro environment
30-year US Treasury yield fell back from a 5.6% peak, improving short-term risk appetite
Multiple Fed officials hinted no rate hike in October; the probability of an October hike dropped from 70% to about 25%
Bearish cards:
Fed raised rates by 25bps to 3.75%-4% on September 16, the first hike in 2023, passed unanimously
Although October hike probability cooled, another hike this year is still possible
ETF funds turned to a net outflow of $148.7 million on September 30, breaking a 9-day net inflow streak
10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.289% at the end of September, 30-year at 5.632%, both hitting 52-week highs
Wildcard card:
A liquidation map shows Bitcoin's 30-day leveraged long exposure at $4.35 billion, concentrated around $74,170
If price breaks key support, these positions could trigger a chain liquidation, causing a cascade
The lesson from October 10 last year’s $19 billion liquidation is still fresh
🤔 So the core question isn't "will it rise or not."
The core question is: between seasonal momentum and macro pressure, which is stronger this year?
Bullish logic: September delivered historic-level performance, ETF Q3 net inflows about $6.34 billion, Citibank raised target price, October hike probability cooled to 25%.
Bearish logic: Fed has already started hiking, unanimously approved. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.2%, no-yield assets naturally suffer. ETF fund flows turned negative at month-end. $4.35 billion leveraged longs hanging overhead.
Both sides have true arguments. This is what makes the market so torturous.
💡 My own judgment in one sentence:
Seasonality can support the trend but cannot offset macro shocks.
September's gains were due to "bad news priced in" after Fed hikes plus concentrated ETF inflows. But in October, this logic faces two hurdles:
First hurdle: October 2 Nonfarm Payroll data. Too strong → rate hike expectations return → Bitcoin under pressure. Too weak → recession fears → risk assets still pressured.
Second hurdle: October 14 CPI data. This is the last key inflation data before the Fed's late-October meeting. If inflation doesn't come down, rate hike expectations will be repriced.
Passing both hurdles means the late-October meeting might give the market a breather.
Failing means forget Uptober, Rektober awaits you.
/ To be honest.
Uptober is a statistical fact, not a destiny guarantee.
10 rises out of 13 times, a 77% probability. Sounds high. But in a casino game with a 77% win rate, you still have a 23% chance to lose.
And the 2025 lesson is clear—when macro storms hit, seasonality is just a paper tiger.
$19 billion liquidations won't not happen just because "October historically averages an 18% rise."
The market won't go easy on you just because you believe in patterns.
/ Final sentence
This October, it's not about "will it rise or not."
It's about "can it withstand rate hike pressure."
Seasonality gives you probability. Macro gives you reality.
Don't mistake probability for a promise.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Previously, $ETH broke through the 2700 mark from 2530, forcing shorts to stop loss and liquidate, buying to close shorts and further pushing the price up to 2806.88, then falling back to 2634.35 and starting to oscillate. After 9 days of thick consolidation, with the non-farm payroll data today, it has currently stabilized above 2700 within 6 hours. Can the bears win tonight?
I also added a small position, averaging up from 2672.34 to 2685.11, and reduced leverage from 10x to 8x. $BTC is still a bit away from risk control; even if I'm wrong and it stabilizes at 2850, it won't hurt me much. Currently, $ZEC has an unrealized profit and loss of 200,000 USD, continuing to hold and waiting for the non-farm payroll data at 20:30 today.Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$MEGA Top accounts are more bullish, position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio 1.67, position ratio 0.87; the difference in the proportion of the two types of bulls expanded by 1.36 percentage points. More bullish accounts, no dominant long position size advantage yet.
$PEPE Top accounts are more bullish, position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio 1.08, position ratio 0.8; the difference in the proportion of the two types of bulls narrowed by 1.22 percentage points. Divergence is easing, position size still bearish; this convergence has not yet aligned the two indicators.
$SOL Top accounts are more bullish, position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio 1.07, position ratio 0.96; the difference in the proportion of the two types of bulls narrowed by 1.49 percentage points. Divergence is easing, position size still bearish; this convergence has not yet aligned the two indicators.