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The data hasn't been released yet, but the money has already entered the market. Most likely, it's another case of buying the expectation and selling the reality.
At 8:30 PM tonight, the US September non-farm payrolls will be announced. The expectation is an increase of 84,000, with the previous value at 162,000. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%.
But BTC surged to 86,000 before the data came out, up 2.59% in 24 hours. ETH rose 2.43%, SOL rose 3.71%, and even ZEC followed the rally. The entire market had a rebound before the data release.
Why? Because the market is betting—the bet is that the non-farm payrolls will fall short of expectations. The 162,000 in August was too strong, which firmly set the rate hike expectations. This time, the expectation is 84,000, almost halved; the funds are betting on a data decline and easing rate hikes.
Before the data is released, the direction has already been set. If it is below 84,000, rate hike expectations will continue to ease, and risk assets will keep rebounding. If it is higher than expected, or close to the previous value, this early rally will be reversed.
There is another variable more important than the data itself—whether the August previous value will be revised down. If the revision is large, even if September is slightly higher than expected, the overall employment trend will still be weak.
My judgment: don't heavily bet on one side before the data is released. Wait for the actual results before making moves.
What do you think—will tonight's data be lower or higher? Let's discuss in the comments.
The above is a summary of on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH "Citibank Raises Price Targets, Crypto Market Recovers but Not in Unison"
Citibank raised the 12-month price targets for BTC and ETH to 113,000 and 3,028 USD respectively, acting as a catalyst for the overnight rebound. BTC climbed back above 86,000, trading around 86,401 USD, up 2.26% in 24 hours; ETH consolidated near 2,700, up 1.78%. Spot ETF inflows and institutional allocation demand remain the backbone of the bullish narrative.
However, the recovery is not broad-based. ZEC is trading around 1,333 USD, down 7.3% intraday, retreating about 21% from the late-September high of 1,698 USD. This looks more like profit-taking after a 253% surge from 480 USD rather than a trend reversal. SOL rose above 120 USD, up 1.48%, with about 7.7 million USD worth of shorts liquidated within an hour, showing clear signs of a leverage short squeeze.
On the macro front, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials have provided a breathing space for risk assets. But ahead of key data releases, capital is hesitant to fully commit. The current rally carries the warmth of institutional expectations as well as the restlessness of leveraged speculation. Citibank's price targets are a distant beacon, while short-term undercurrents remain beneath our feet.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $CT can't keep rising! It really can't rise anymore!!
Get ready for a big correction soon!!
All those coins before were pumped like there was no tomorrow
Now finally things are starting to feel off!!
Let's look at $CT first
The 24-hour high already hit 0.6365
Now it's only around 0.5929
Although today it still holds +23.40%
But brothers
The key is not how much it rose today
But how much it has already pumped before!!
From around 0.3402 it climbed all the way up
0.40, 0.48, 0.55 broke through consecutively
The highest directly touched 0.6365
Nearly doubled in a short time
This kind of trend looked really strong at first
But the further it goes
The more I dare not chase!!
Especially after hitting 0.6365
It didn't continue to push up in one go
Instead, it started shrinking below 0.60
That's interesting
Before it was like it was afraid you'd get on board
Now it's giving you time to think whether to get on board or not
That makes me more cautious!!
Now look at $AAVE
Same vibe
From around 85 it pumped all the way to 187.74
Today again +8.41%
7 days already +20.97%
30 days +46.12%
Daily chart keeps pushing up
MA5, MA10, MA20 all pointing up
Looks ridiculously strong
But the problem is exactly here
It has already risen so much!!
If you rush in now
Are you eating the last leg
Or just taking the bag from those before?
Who knows!!
$ZEC is even more obvious
Previously pumped violently from around 466
Highest hit 1695.5
At that time it was one candle after another
Felt like it would never drop
But what happened?
Now only around 1389
7 days already -10.63%
And price has fallen below MA5, MA10, MA20
This is what worries me most now
Many coins at their craziest moments
Always look like
"It can still rise!"
"It can still pump!"
"Correction is the time to get on!"
But when the real drop starts
It won't notify you in advance at all!!
Look at my $BTC short position
Opened around 74958
50x full position short
Now mark price is already 86333
Unrealized loss directly at
-76206U!!
-758.69%!!
Holding through this is really crazy
But precisely because the market pumped so hard before
I'm now more focused
On when these high-level coins start to loosen up
Of course
Loss is loss
You can't just think "it's pumped too much"
So it must drop immediately
Especially in this market
You think it's high enough
The pumpers might still give you one more push!!
So now my focus is simple
Can $CT break through 0.6365 again?
If it breaks through and holds
Then the strong trend isn't over yet
But if 0.6365 is the stage high
And it can't even hold above 0.60 afterwards
Then I want to see
If the brothers who chased high before start to panic!!
Can't rise anymore!
Really feels like it can't rise anymore!!
Before, pumped like there was no money
$CT, $AAVE, $ZEC taking turns to perform
Now what should rise has risen
What should go crazy has gone crazy
Next we see
Is this wave just high-level rotation continuing to push
Or is it ready to bury all those who chased in before
At the top!!
Will a big correction come or not
I don't know
But at this position
I can't close my eyes and chase long anymore!!
#BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously flowing out, capital heat cooling down
#September nonfarm payrolls announced tonight, rate hike expectations become the focus CT has risen eightfold in two days since listing, from 0.075 to 0.63. On the morning of 9/30 at 9 AM, it opened with a deep dip at 0.075 on the first day of listing; then it surged straight up to 0.63868 over the next two days. The current price is 0.60289, up 74.65% in 24 hours, just 5.6% below the high. At this level, two signals need to be distinguished. One is positive: on October 1, spot net outflow was about 85 million, yet the price rose steadily from 0.40 to 0.60 that day. The fact that it can still rise while withdrawing indicates light selling pressure and that the chips are held by a few. One is negative: the 1-hour KDJ J value is 89.26, already in the overbought zone; the price is above the Bollinger upper band at 0.59885; 24-hour volatility is 77.6%. Short-term momentum is nearly exhausted. Another point to clarify: market cap and circulating supply are both -- in the panel, and the issue price is undisclosed. Total supply is 1 billion tokens, FDV is already 600 million USD, but the actual circulating amount is unknown. The smaller the circulating supply, the greater the price movement leveraged by the same amount of money, and the larger the pullback as well. My judgment: do not chase at this level. If you want to play, wait for a pullback to 0.507 (1-hour middle band) before reconsidering; if it breaks below 0.416 (lower band), treat this wave as an emotional impulse. Only if it stabilizes above 0.605 is there talk of a new high, but the risk-reward ratio is no longer favorable. It ranks 4th in popularity, with many watching. Are you the one who caught this eightfold surge, or just entering at 0.60 ETH hit a high of 2778 today, currently priced at 2748. I'm watching OKX, feeling a bit relieved.
A few days ago, it was stuck around 2650, but today it finally broke above 2700 and even surged to 2778. This altcoin is showing more strength than Bitcoin this round.
I glanced at the order book; the surge to 2778 didn't hold, falling back to around 2748, indicating profit-taking near the 2800 round number resistance. The 2740-2750 range shows balanced buying and selling; if it dips, there are buyers stepping in. Volume is slightly higher than a few days ago but not explosive—more like catching up with the broader market rather than an independent rally.
Key levels for $ETH that I marked:
Support: 2720-2740, as long as it doesn't break on a pullback, it's still strong; if it breaks, watch 2680-2700.
Resistance: 2780-2800, only a volume-backed break above here can target 2850-2900.
My strategy: If it pulls back near 2720 with shrinking volume and stabilizes, I'll lightly buy in with a stop loss below 2680; if it surges to 2800 without volume, I'll reduce some short-term positions to take profits. ETH is moving with the broader market—if the market weakens, it will falter, so don't be too greedy.$SOON held on from a maximum loss of over 1500 to a loss of 500 now
It's easier to defeat an enemy in the mountains than the enemy in your heart.
I said I wouldn't hold positions, but with just a small loss, I couldn't bear to give up to the market makers and kept hoping for a turnaround, holding on longer and longer, becoming more reluctant to cut losses. The 100u position I opened casually ended up with a maximum loss of nearly 200u after adding to it.
The stop-loss price kept being pushed further away, and in the end, I just gave up and dragged it down close to the forced liquidation price.
Although it has dropped these past two days, besides a slight luck of barely escaping death, I mostly hate myself for not being able to firmly follow the trading discipline I set for myself.$ETH Here are some red-flag keywords for everyone. After observing for a while, when you see people like this, just do the opposite of what they do. Most likely, they won't survive more than three months and will repeatedly get liquidated. 1: Genius girl xxx / Genius boy xxx 2: Genius trader xxx / anyone who considers themselves a trader. 3: xxx war god / 10u 100u challenge xxx 4: Always spouting terms like dog dealer, waterfall, zeroing out, speaking like someone with at most a high school education. Summary: These people are highly emotional, obsessed with high leverage and holding positions, always thinking about quickly doubling small funds, treating the crypto space like gambling and dreaming of getting rich overnight, liking to open trades frequently but with win rates and returns that don't match at all. They might win many times in a row but only make a little profit each time, which they call "taking meat," then lose it all in one go. The last and most critical point: these people love to short and even treat short positions as a "belief," meaning they trade against the trend. That's about it. When you see people like this, just avoid them.Still optimistic about this round of the altcoin season in the bull market
In the past cycle, while BTC rose, Others/BTC continued to weaken, so altcoins struggled to truly take off.
Now the structure is starting to change, Others/BTC has broken through long-term resistance and formed a rare higher high on the weekly chart since 2022. If this trend continues, altcoins' performance relative to BTC may significantly improve.
The focus of funds in this bull market is also very clear: DeFi infrastructure.
If more USD liquidity, assets, and financial services gradually move on-chain in the future, infrastructure projects like $UNI, $AAVE, and $LINK will directly benefit from this trend.
Of course, this does not mean abandoning BTC and ETH. They remain my core holdings.
It's just that if Others/BTC truly completes a trend reversal, altcoins may usher in their own trend rally next.Volatility filters out participants, structure is set
The most costly aspect of a bull market is not the gains, but the choices made during pullbacks. A few sharp spikes up and down are enough to force those chasing highs out and allow the calm to complete turnover. The direction is hard to predict, but position sizing and discipline are always in your own hands.
BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, AVAX are the five cards I am willing to track long-term. Behind them are ecosystems and consensus, not just sentiment keeping them alive. The more intense the volatility, the better it tests the quality of the chips.
My approach:
Lock in the base position, don’t easily give up the core;
Use tactical positions to roll, take profits on rebounds, recover on sharp drops;
Switch structure, don’t panic sell if fundamentals remain intact, trim the weak in batches and keep the strong, refuse to go all in.
Swing trading is a side dish, the base position is the staple. Don’t panic on drops, don’t be greedy on rises. Macro still has disturbances: non-farm payrolls, interest rate expectations, ETF funds pulling against each other, ETH ecosystem is also gathering strength. Short-term watch sentiment, long-term watch discipline. First endure the volatility, then wait for the trend to materialize. $BTC $ETH
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 The $CORE project team has been continuously selling, which has directly led to strong doubts within the community.
On-chain community observations found that, as the "Core staking mining reserve address," the project team was able to sell 80 million CORE tokens in one go. Prior to this, this address only output about 570,000 tokens weekly for staking rewards. This abnormal large transfer has triggered strong community doubts about whether the project team can freely sell tokens from this address.
Although the project team proposed a "Revenue Era" plan in the 2026 roadmap, claiming to use ecosystem income to buy back CORE, their flagship product SatPay has announced a delay with no confirmed launch date. This means that the plan for large-scale buybacks through business revenue currently appears to be just an empty promise.
Therefore, in the absence of realized ecosystem income, the project team still controls the massive reserve address and has both the ability and motivation to continue selling tokens. #9月非农今晚公布, rate hike expectations become the focus. If the 84,000 new additions fall through, where will BTC explode tonight? At 20:30 Beijing time on October 2, the US announced September nonfarm payrolls, expecting an increase of 84,000 to 85,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, August PCE year-on-year 3.4%, core 3.0%, initial hiring at 197,000. Jefferson said he'll wait a bit, and the market is cutting down bets on a rate hike in October. [Veteran's Ramblings] Nonfarm payrolls don't just look at the headline 'new additions.' True experts break it down into four parts: new arrivals, unemployment rate, average hourly wage, and downward revisions from the previous two months. This expectation is 84,000, a cliff-shrunk drop from August's 162,000, appearing like jobs have cooled. But initial hiring is 197,000, and the four-week average is 200,000—ridiculously low, indicating companies are not laying off employees. Low hiring and low layoffs are the real odd signs of America's workforce today. Fewer new hires don't mean recession; it might just mean the boss isn't hiring. The interest rate chain must be this stringy. PCE overall is 3.4%, core 3.0%, still far from the 2% target, but weaker than the market fears. Jefferson and Williams have both said there's no rush, with the probability of a rate hike in October dropping from about 70% to below 30%, and Goldman Sachs pushed the second rate hike to December. Don't celebrate too soon—federal funds are now at 3.75% to 4.00%, 10-year Treasuries are still hovering around 5.2%, and the long end hasn't relaxed. In the crypto pool, the biggest fear is real interest rates on the long side. If short-term expectations drop a bit, they can't hold up and keep extracting liquidity from the long end. How BTC reacts is historically straightforward. Statistics from January 2025 to September 2026, non-farm payroll data releasesCoverage: Gold, crude oil, AI storage chips, AI industry, crypto market (BTC/ETH), plus US Treasury yields, US dollar index, and Federal Reserve rate hike probabilities. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 1. Core viewpoints 1. The 10-year US Treasury yield intraday surged twice to 5.34% (highest since April 2002) but was pushed back, closing at 5.24%, down 6 basis points — this round of short squeeze in US Treasury selling failed on the first high attempt. Meaning: Sellers are still present, but buyers are starting to step in. 2. US stocks withstood the yield shock and closed higher; the S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7666.45, ending a three-day losing streak; storage and AI orders were the only two engines in the market, with Micron up 3.03% and Accenture surging about 16% due to AI orders. Simply put: money is flowing only into the "out-of-stock" and "AI" pockets. 3. Brent crude oil surged 4.4% in a single day to close at $102.31, reclaiming above 102; China's refineries suspending October refined product exports combined with war premiums from tanker attacks are the main drivers. Meaning: The harder oil prices stay, the stronger inflation expectations remain, and interest rates cannot come down. 4. Global bond markets collectively demanding repayment: UK 30-year government bond yield broke 6% intraday (first time since 1998), Japan 10-year yield reached 3.126% (highest since mid-1990s), Germany 10-year broke 3.6% (highest since 2008)#9月非农今晚公布, rate hike expectations become the focus—84,000 new additions actually make BTC shake three times first? October 2, 20:30 Nonfarm payroll suspense fully resolved October 2 20:30 The US released September nonfarm payrolls, with the market expecting an increase of 84,000 to 85,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Referring to August's PCE year-on-year growth of 3.4% and core demand of 3.0%, the initial demand for September 26 was 197,000. Jefferson indicated no urgent increase, pushing bets on October rate hikes downward. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't just look at the headline numbers for this macro project. The expectation for new additions dropped from 162,000 in August to just over 80,000. On the surface, employment cooled, but the unemployment rate was still stuck at 4.1%, and initial claims from 197,000 were below 200,000, indicating it wasn't a crash, just slow. The inflation side is even more complicated: August PCE year-on-year was 3.4%, core 3.0%, lower than earlier expectations but still far from the Fed's 2% target. Jefferson said more time to read data—this is a classic case of "hawk-beaked doves." For crypto, the logic is threefold: First, if the nonfarm payroll is above $85,000 or even close to $90,000, the market will re-speculate on a rate hike in October, with US Treasury yields and the dollar starting to pressure BTC and ETH in the short term; Historically, BTC can double in the 30 minutes after the nonfarm payroll period during normal hours. The strong nonfarm payroll in September dropped 2.32% in half an hour, with long positions liquidated $119 million—leveraged positions fear this the most. Second, if nonfarm payrolls fall below 80,000 and both hourly wages and unemployment rates weaken, the probability of a rate hike in October drops further, allowing risk assets to breathe a sigh of relief and BTC to rebound firstThe important signal is not the intraday peak alone, but how long long-term funding costs remain elevated after yields ease. A 10-year near 5.2% still keeps mortgages and balance-sheet decisions under pressure.
The buyback and stronger dealer capacity may help market plumbing, yet they do not erase the macro hurdle: duration now demands sustained confidence from borrowers and investors.
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge Here are some keywords to avoid. After observing for a while, when you see people like this, just do the opposite of what they do. Most likely, they won't survive more than three months and will repeatedly get liquidated. 1: Genius girl xxx / Genius boy xxx 2: Genius trader xxx / anyone who considers themselves a trader. 3: xxx war god / 10u 100u challenge xxx 4: Always spouting terms like dog dealer, waterfall, zeroing out, speaking like someone with at most a high school education. Summary: These people are highly emotional, obsessed with high leverage and holding positions, always thinking about quickly doubling small funds, treating the crypto space like gambling and dreaming of getting rich overnight. They like to open trades frequently but their win rate and profitability do not match. They might win many times in a row but only make a little profit each time, which they call "taking meat," then lose it all in one go. The last and most critical point: these people love to short and even treat short positions as a "belief," meaning they trade against the trend. That's about it. When you see people like this, just avoid them.Everyone criticized me for going against the trend, but today everyone has gone quiet.
I shorted $UNI at 9.285, now it's 9.05, floating profit over 7%.
See, did I enter at the wrong position?
The market doesn't lie. It has been hammered down from 10.95, every rebound is tightly suppressed by the moving averages, each high is lower than the last, and volume keeps shrinking.
This is not a shakeout, this is a clear downtrend.
The real signal is that UNI on-chain in exchanges has piled up to a historic high of 113.9 million tokens, with Binance alone holding 73 million.
Smart money is moving into exchanges, are you still waiting for it to return to $10?
The macro picture is even clearer.
The October rate hike meeting is just ahead, and the probability of another hike this year is very high.
Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of 140 million in a single week, institutional funds are accelerating their exit.
With high interest rates weighing down, DeFi tokens are the first to get hit.
My short position is not in a hurry to close. Until the trend reverses, any rebound is an opportunity to add to the position.
At this position, do you dare to short with me?
$BTC $ETH
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 After BTC stabilizes above 85,000, don't chase the highs; focus on these four “back-row picks”
If $BTC retakes 85,000, I won’t chase it at the peak. The reason is simple: the range from 83,000 to 85,000 has already been digested, and I already hold long BTC positions. Now it’s more important to judge whether capital will spread outward.
$ETH: Consolidating around 2,700. After BTC stabilizes, ETH only has a chance to open the 2,800–2,900 range if it breaks 2,750; if BTC strengthens but ETH can’t surpass 2,750, it’s better to wait.
SOL: Around 118–119. Breaking 120, the next target is 125–130. During real rotation, SOL usually won’t just fluctuate by 1%.
HYPE: Recently strong, approaching 89. If BTC breaks through simultaneously and HYPE stands above 90, it may continue an independent rally.
ZEC: Currently weaker than BTC and ETH. After BTC stabilizes above 85,000, don’t rush to bottom-fish; first see if it can turn from weak to strong, or even lead the rally. If capital starts to spread, high-volatility coins will benefit first.
BTC is responsible for confirming direction; I’m responsible for finding the back-row picks that haven’t started yet. ETH, SOL, HYPE, ZEC are the next watchlist. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC. ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling capital enthusiasm. If nonfarm payrolls exceed 90,000 tonight, why might BTC get slapped first? October 2, 2026, 20:30 Beijing time: US September nonfarm payrolls added 84,000 to 85,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, August PCE year-on-year 3.4%, core 3.0%. For the week ending September 26, initial hiring was 197,000 and below 200,000. Jefferson said more data is needed, so the market is cutting down bets on a rate hike in October. [Veteran's Rambling] Don't focus solely on new jobs. Initial hiring of 197,000 indicates companies are not willing to lay off people yet; low hiring and low layoffs are the current reality. PCE overall is 3.4%, core 3.0%, far from the 2% target. The Fed isn't unhawkish, but fears further rate hikes will push long-term yields out of control. If nonfarm payrolls add more than 90,000, hourly wages exceed 3.2% year-on-year, and unemployment remains at 4.1%, the dollar and Treasury yields will surge. BTC, based on historical nonfarm payrolls, fluctuates about 2.0 times in the last 30 minutes of normal trading, making it easy to be hit by leveraged long positions by 1% to 2.5%. Conversely, if new payrolls fall below 60,000 and unemployment exceeds 4.2%, the market may not get excited immediately because it fears recession; At that time, BTC often falls first and then withdraws, while ETH and altcoins decide whether to follow based on net stablecoin inflows. For real trading, before 20:30, reduce perpetual contract leverage to below 3x, keep stablecoins at least 30% of total position, and wait for data to check DXY, 10-year US Treasury yields, and CME rate hike probabilitiesAfter switching to PoS, Ethereum no longer burns electricity fees, but it has added continuous selling pressure caused by staking unlocks.
$ETH $ETH is struggling to break the $2,750 resistance, with tonight’s NFP data likely to trigger major volatility. ⚡️
Forecasts center around +91K, but estimates range widely from 35K–180K.
➤ Above 120K: downside pressure may increase
➤ Below 60K: $ETH could challenge resistance again
Expect sharp moves around the release. Stay patient and avoid impulsive entries. 📊
$BTC
$ETH
#USJobsDataToday
#BTCETHETFOutflows U.S. Senator Daines has introduced the ADAPT crypto tax bill, aiming to simplify the tax treatment of qualifying USD stablecoin spending and provide corresponding relief for network fees not exceeding $10. This is still a proposal and cannot be used to change the current reporting methods.
But I really like the problem it tries to solve. Payment products can make operations very smooth, yet users may face a pile of transaction records at the end of the year. Buying a product and paying a network fee each require determining whether a gain or loss occurred; the amounts are small, but the accounting work does not decrease accordingly. The time saved by technology is then spent on tax record-keeping.
If the relevant provisions are ultimately implemented, the stablecoin payment experience will be more complete. Ordinary users usually will not learn a complex set of asset disposal rules just to use a payment method. Making these daily operations easy to comply with, I think, is more useful than repeatedly promoting the vision.
The bill is not just about reducing burdens for the industry. Daines' explanation also proposes extending existing tax rules like wash sales to digital assets. In other words, the payment side is preparing to reduce friction, while the trading side is preparing to close some regulatory gaps.
I am willing to accept this approach to discussion: change what truly adds unnecessary burdens; reconsider arrangements that merely exploit tax system differences. Now we need to see how the text is amended and whether it can pass; we should not prematurely celebrate "introducing a bill" as full tax exemption.
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT Options settlement data for October 2 shows 30,500 BTC options expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.07, a max pain point at $82,000, and a notional value of $2.63 billion. For ETH, 116,000 options expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.17, a max pain point at $2,660, and a notional value of $320 million. Analysis indicates a clear rebound in BTC price on the settlement day, with strong bullish options block trades, marking it as a relatively active weekly settlement day. The price has oscillated around $85,000 for over a week, market confidence remains very positive, and community discussions mainly focus on expectations of major coin price increases. From the main options data, this week's primary term IV has decreased compared to last week's IV, only relatively rising from two weeks ago, currently at a low point since this bull market began. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Yesterday's plan:
✅ Buy the dip at 5% drop
✅ Add position at 10% drop
✅ Go all in at 20% drop
Today's reality:
📉 5% drop: Let's wait and see 📉
10% drop: Feeling a bit panicked 📉
20% drop: Is there something wrong with this project?
📉 30% drop: I'm a value investor
The biggest lie in crypto isn't "the pump is coming soon," but "I strictly follow my trading plan."$CORE If the official team completely abandons it and other nodes join with free pricing, is that good or bad?
For CORE holders, this is more likely a disaster rather than a blessing.
The end of a "leaderless public chain" is zero value: a "leaderless" public chain without a core team maintaining it, without financial support, and without developers building it will ultimately become a "digital ruin." Its token price will only decline steadily until no one cares.
Liquidity trap: Currently, CORE has fallen into a typical liquidity trap. Although there are many holders, external incremental funds are unwilling to enter. Once the official team completely lets go, market confidence will collapse entirely, and even the smallest sell orders could trigger a price crash.
Exchanges' "foot voting": Mainstream exchanges will quickly delist such unaccountable assets for risk control reasons. At that time, holders will face the desperate situation of "nowhere to sell."
The conclusion is: For holders already deeply involved, although the project team "bleeds" them, their existence at least maintains the network's superficial operation and the token's listing on exchanges. Once the project team completely abandons it, what remains for everyone will only be a "mess" accelerating toward zero value.
From the "grand narrative" step by step to the final stage of "responsibility transfer."On October 2, the Hang Seng Index closed down 2.6% at 23,972.29 points, after rising 0.4% the previous day. However, financial stocks dragged it down sharply, with HSBC falling 5.4% and AIA dropping 6.0%, marking their largest single-day declines since March 23. 【Veteran's ramblings】 Don't just focus on the pain in the Hong Kong stock market; the pain is in global money prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2002, and the 30-year yield once touched 5.65%. Hong Kong's linked exchange rate means HIBOR follows the US dollar. Bank stocks should benefit from net interest margins, so why are they leading the decline? The logic is reversed: long-term interest rates are too high, the market fears banks holding bonds will face unrealized losses, fears UK bank taxes, and worries about economic downturn bad debts. Multinational banks like HSBC are hit first. AIA's 6.0% drop is even more severe; insurance assets are all tied to long-duration fixed income, so when discount rates rise, the embedded value model is directly recalculated. Southbound trading was closed from October 1 to 7 and only resumed on October 8. Without northbound funds supporting, foreign capital dominates pricing, amplifying selling pressure to 640 points. One strange thing, let's clarify first. How does this map to crypto? BTC is not a follower of the Hang Seng Index. Historical samples show BTC had a negative 0.60 correlation with the Hang Seng, meaning Hong Kong stocks crashing doesn't necessarily mean BTC crashes, provided risk appetite isn't completely shocked. If the long end of US Treasuries, the US dollar, and VIX all rise together, BTC and ETH become high-beta risk assets and fall alongside the Nasdaq. Today's combination, with HSBC and AIA both plunging, tells the market liquidity is tightening, not expanding. When liquidity tightens, don't believe the "digital gold" narrative; first look at on-chain data. Exchange net flows are the most honest. BWith the silent US-Iran situation, where will the situation go? Early in the morning, Bloomberg reported that Iran intended to exchange nuclear inspections for easing sanctions. Although Iran later denied it, this contradiction between diplomatic and public information is actually a common occurrence. And now, the day after accepting US terms, Iran has yet to respond, which already says something! Looking at Trump's current large-scale military strikes + allied energy release + seemingly a fight to the death, I believe Iran is indeed feeling pressure. Judging by Iran's diplomatic pressure, Trump's reaction can be considered a success. #美伊升级风险再升, Brent oil returns to $100. But I really don't like Trump's "champagne half-court opening" stance. Trump has always wanted Iran to yield under the "gun's barrel," but are such extreme international rhetoric sure won't force Iran to take a tough stance? Of course, unless Trump is not applying diplomatic or military pressure but genuinely wants to fight, then at this point the question arises: without deploying large numbers of ground troops, how can Iran truly be subdued? Or by using large-scale military escorts + economic sanctions and blockades to ease energy shortages and trap Iran? But if Trump loses the midterm elections, how much influence will he have among U.S.-aligned allies? Will allied politicians still trust Trump? Currently, the drop in energy prices depends on Europe preparing to release diesel reserves, but it's clear Brent's decline is too slow, as several media outlets reported earlier this week about the resumption of pre-war Strait of HormuzBTC firmly held at 86000, ETH also defended 2700, so there’s actually some short-term room left. Honestly, the strength of this rebound exceeded my expectations a bit, making me wonder if I got off too early? Haha.
Better to pocket the profits first, that’s definitely not wrong, just don’t get carried away.
Let’s talk about some key levels. $BTC at 86000 isn’t just a random line—it’s right around the ETF’s comprehensive breakeven point, where long-term holders’ costs and concentrated liquidation levels all converge. Since the cycle low of 58000 in June, it’s already risen 45%, and the 50-week moving average has been reclaimed for the first time. So nailing the 86000 level carries more weight than it looks.
On the $ETH side, I agree with analyst Ali’s view: as long as 2640 holds, the pattern remains bullish. If it closes above 2700 on the hourly chart, the 3000 target opens up. Plus, this is the first time ETH has reclaimed 2700 since January, firmly standing above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, so the technicals are solid.
But don’t just look at the technicals. Tonight’s September nonfarm payrolls are expected to show an increase of 84,000 jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Fed officials have repeatedly said the labor market has stabilized and they’re in no rush to raise rates; the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped from 50% to about 24%. This data likely won’t change the direction, but if it significantly beats expectations, short-term sentiment will definitely shake. Conversely, the ETF inflows that had accumulated 3.1 billion over 9 consecutive days ended yesterday with a net outflow of 149 million—funds are cooling off, and this signal can’t be ignored. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still hovering near a high of 5.23%, and the 30-year yield recently touched a 24-year high; pressure on long-term rates hasn’t truly eased.
As for $ZEC, its price action is really twisted, often moving opposite to expectations. It crashed from a historic high of 1693 at the end of September, with whales leading the sell-off, dropping over 12% intraday. But if you look at the fundamentals, the privacy sector’s logic isn’t dead—Grayscale’s ZEC spot ETF has launched, and the privacy coin sector’s market cap has grown from 7.1 billion to 33.6 billion in a year, with $ZEC’s market share still rising. The problem lies within the project itself: the Orchard vulnerability incident from June hasn’t been disproven, and after the core dev team disbanded, governance has been unstable, so trust repair will take time.
So my view is straightforward: if it drops further, I’ll actually start looking seriously bullish. Not blindly buying, but waiting for it to wash out more profit-taking, to form an emotional bottom before moving on.
Don’t expect a new high all at once this round; take it slow, there will be plenty of opportunities. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温 Sisters, have you noticed? ZEC is really not doing well.
Today Bitcoin even broke a new high, but $ZEC only rebounded to 1380, not even holding above 1400.
So when Bitcoin starts to crash, ZEC will definitely plummet hard.
Look at the trend: ZEC dropped from 1493 straight down to 1305, now rebounding to 1386, still can't hold above MA20, MACD barely formed a golden cross below the zero line, and the red bars are pitifully short.
This kind of rebound just gives shorts a chance to add positions.
When Bitcoin rises, it doesn't follow; when Bitcoin falls, it definitely follows—and falls even harder. This is the characteristic of a weak coin.
Coins that rely on emotional hype, once funds withdraw, will keep dropping continuously, not stopping after just one decline.
They push up hard on emotion when rising, and accelerate the fall with panic selling when dropping, with hardly any decent rebound in between.
I opened a short at 1656.46, and my return has already hit 816%, but I'm in no rush to exit.
My targets below are 1300 and 1200.
This time, I plan to hold until it truly bottoms out.
If you want to short now, you can try a light position around 1380, set stop loss above 1420, and first target 1300; if it breaks that, then head for 1200.
No need to go heavy, set stop loss properly, the risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
$BTC
$ETH
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Currently, the account has an unrealized profit of about ￥9950
$BOME has already successfully recovered; if the data tonight is good and BTC holds steady, I still look at 0.11 or a nearby position for dynamic adjustment. This time, I won't be greedy.
$LINK has been oscillating repeatedly in a grid pattern, should be good for some gains. You can set up some positions at 14.36 or below; no movement these past two days.
$XRP might be a bit late, but if the price is right, you can still buy some; it hasn't risen much.
ENA went down again after the afternoon pullback; on the 5th, there will be a large unlock. The target price to try entering is 0.225.
UNI hasn't risen either; if it goes to 8.7-8.8, you can buy some. I sold my position at 8.78.
AAVE previously mentioned at 160 that it would push to 190, I forgot where. SoL, starting from the same point, is still within its previous high; I hope it can break out.
If BTC holds steady at 83000, you can take some positions.
(All are established coins, just my personal opinion) #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 🚀 $BTC breaks through selling pressure to hit a new high for October, with short positions liquidated over $120 million. RSI is already at 70.6, so I'll be extra cautious in the overbought zone. The 86,949–87,282 range is a key stop-loss zone for the bears; if it's swept, it could easily turn into a false breakout to lure buyers for selling. Falling below 82,565 invalidates this, so how far do you think the bulls can push it?$BTC's short-term target is $87,000 after breaking through and stabilizing.
Technical structure: Analysts point out that BTC's correction starting from $87,395 has lasted 6 days with a maximum decline of about 5.53%. If it breaks through and stabilizes above $86,380, the correction will be confirmed as over, and a new high above $87,395 will be created.
Capital flow and institutional dynamics
ETF continuous net inflows: This week, Bitcoin ETFs have seen consecutive days of net inflows, with a single-day high of $347 million and a total inflow of $2.65 billion over 5 days; even when the price fell below $84,000, large funds were still buying.
Institutional accumulation: Strategy (MicroStrategy) resumed buying after a three-week break, increasing holdings to about 846,000 BTC, exceeding 4% of the total network supply; Strive also increased holdings by 6,106 BTC between August and September, valued at about $491 million.
Perpetual contract leverage: The market's open interest has risen to about $160 billion, reaching a new high since last October. Although the price hasn't risen, leverage is leading, so beware of flash crash risks.
Institutional target prices
Citibank: On October 1, raised Bitcoin's 12-month target price to $113,000.
Market divergence: Some traders believe the current rebound might be the "last deceptive rally," with $92,000 possibly the final barrier; others think this correction is a mid-bull market shakeout, and the upward trend starting from $57,800 remains intact.
$ETH
$ZEC The Hang Seng Index dropped 640 points in one day; why did HSBC and AIA scare crypto veterans into a cold sweat? On October 2, 2026, the Hang Seng Index closed at 23,972.29 points, down 2.60% for the day. Financial stocks led the decline, with HSBC down 5.4% and AIA down 6.0%, marking their largest drop since March 23 when they fell 3.5%. 【Veteran's ramble】This time, the Hong Kong stock market's drop isn't just about "bad sentiment." The root cause lies in U.S. Treasuries: the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65%, and the 10-year yield ranged between 5.25% and 5.34% at high levels. Under the Hong Kong linked exchange rate system, local interest rates follow U.S. market pricing, so banks and insurers took the first hit. Northbound capital flow has also stopped; the Stock Connect from October 1 to 7 is closed, and southbound is not taking shares, making the liquidity pool so shallow that a sell-off easily breaks support levels. Translated into crypto terms: high U.S. Treasury yields mean holding BTC, a non-interest-bearing asset, has a high cost; if stablecoin yields rise along the short end, funds prefer to hold USDC to earn interest rather than rush into altcoins. HSBC's 5.4% drop and AIA's 6.0% drop are not just about two stocks; they signal a global risk premium repricing. The absurd thing is many people only look at candlesticks and ignore government bonds. Is the funding rate zero? How much net outflow is there from exchanges? Are long-term addresses accumulating or dumping? These factors determine whether you add to your position. If U.S. Treasuries continue to hit new highs, first reduce leverage; don't be like me in 2018, holding positions until doubting life. Looking on-chain is even clearer. If BTC spot ETFs see continuous net outflows—for example, on September 30, 12 products combined had a net outflow of $148.7 million, with Fidelity's FBTC accounting for the majority—it indicates institutions are retreating, not bottom-fishing. PerpetualOKXOrbitTopics#OpenAI$1.4TFunding
This wave of hot topics is pushing $BTC to surge sharply upward, with a scene as intense as several heavy-duty concrete mixers roaring simultaneously on a construction site, forcefully pouring commercial concrete into molds.
I see many short-term traders thinking they've caught a big break, rushing up hastily with their vibrators, completely ignoring whether the supporting formwork underneath is properly secured.
Anyone who's worked in civil engineering knows that if concrete is poured too aggressively, and the scaffolding and braces underneath are cut corners, it's not building a load-bearing wall but a shoddy project that could collapse at any moment.
Currently, the $BTC price on the market has reached around 86408.6, and the one-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has soared to 70.6, clearly indicating the mortar is overfilled, with excessive moisture causing the surface to start whitening and efflorescing.
The upper band of the one-hour Bollinger Bands is pressing around 86722, and the clearance height under this prefabricated slab is locked tight.
The current price is almost forcibly pressing against the upper band, while the middle band at 85171 and the lower band at 83619 are still far behind; the underlying load-bearing beam hasn't caught up at all.
The faster the concrete is poured, the fiercer the hydration heat during the initial setting period. Without sufficient watering curing and stress settlement, forcing bricks upward only creates high-altitude cantilever cracks with no structural strength.
Having worked on construction sites for many years, I personally dread rushing the schedule and forcing progress.
While everyone cheers at the towering scaffolding, I only hear the sound of formwork being deformed by high-pressure concrete, the imminent cracking of wood about to burst the mold.
This thin stress-bearing surface simply can't withstand such brute force; even a slight vibration at the top will cause the supports below to collapse on the spot, burying all the greedy, reckless masons in a ruin of rebar and concrete debris.Does the price always rebound immediately after you just stop loss? Then you start doubting yourself, deciding not to stop loss next time, and end up holding the position until liquidation? I used to be like that too, losing 200,000 U before I understood: stop loss is not admitting defeat, it's protecting your principal, giving you a chance to keep trading. BTC current price 86401.1, resistance 86888.0, support 86000, I open a position with 5000 U, stop loss at 85900, target 87000, never hold a position without stop loss. Remember: stop loss is not admitting defeat, it's to survive longer. $BTC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $ZEC I went all in: Bulls are celebrating, I'm placing short orders at the peak
Family of the planet, I'm shorting ZEC at 1387. This is not a signal call, it's my trading plan.
Short logic:
1. Overheated sentiment: Privacy narrative is maxed out, contract fees turned positive, crowded longs, chasing high entries flooding in—looks like distribution, not a launch.
2. Structural weakening: After a sharp rally, volume-price divergence, dense resistance at 1380-1420, false breakouts prone to spikes and pullbacks.
3. Suitable risk-reward: Short at 1387, stop loss at 1445, targets at 1288/1188. Risking 58 to gain 100-200, R:R about 1.7-3.4.
Strategy: Light position, strict stop loss. If daily closes steadily above 1450, I admit I'm wrong and exit; otherwise, let profits run. ZEC is highly volatile; the stronger the rise, the harsher the pullback. I don't guess tops, I trade probabilities and odds.
Bulls see 1500? I'm watching liquidity harvesting.
Which side are you on: Is 1387 a top or a consolidation? Leave your target in the comments.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Seeing A7A5 directly named by the U.S. Treasury as a transnational criminal organization, my first reaction was: this thing has finally been exposed.
Backed by the ruble, used to circumvent sanctions, and even linked to Iranian exchanges and North Korean hackers. To put it bluntly, this is not a legitimate project, just a money laundering channel.
I fell into a similar trap years ago, tempted by the large on-chain volume, but it’s easy to get in and hard to get out. The lesson is simple: no matter how big the volume, money from illegitimate sources always ends in disaster.
Impact on the market? Basically none. This thing is isolated from the mainstream market; emotionally, it might heat up regulatory topics for a couple more days, but don’t force it into being a bearish factor for $BTC.
My current stance is very clear: I won’t touch it, nor do I recommend anyone around me to gamble in such gray areas.
Just keep an eye on one thing going forward: whether the U.S. Treasury will follow this line and name a batch of exchanges. That’s where the real pain will be.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $BTC The real macro focus this week is the US nonfarm payroll data. Currently, the market expects about 90,000 new nonfarm jobs in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%, compared to 162,000 new jobs added in August. ⏰ Released at 20:30 Beijing time: If nonfarm payrolls are significantly below 90,000 tonight: 📉 Job market cooling 📉, US Treasury yields falling 📉, dollar weakening 📈, market expectations for easing may rise. In this environment, risk assets like BTC and Nasdaq may find some support. $BTC has returned to around $86,000. If the data is weak, continue to watch for a breakout in the $87,000–$88,000 range. 👀 But if nonfarms again significantly beat expectations: 🔥 employment remains strong 📈, Fed policy expectations may shift back to hawkish 📈, US Treasury yields may continue to rise 📉, high-valuation tech stocks and AI sectors may come under pressure 📉, and BTC may also be affected by declining risk appetite. Notably, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury remains above 5%, putting valuation pressure on risk assets that cannot be ignored. So what is truly worth watching tonight is not just the nonfarm payroll data itself. 📌 The data is just the first shot. 📌 The direction after the US Treasury yield release may determine how BTC and US stocks move next. #BTC #Bitcoin #NFP #非农 #Nasdaq #美股 #Crypto #DailyOCrypto gave us another reminder yesterday:
A softer inflation number can push Bitcoin higher...
but if bond yields remain elevated, the rally can struggle to hold.
That's why I keep saying the crypto chart isn't the entire story.
Sometimes the biggest Bitcoin catalyst is sitting in the bond market.SOL's institutional treasury is accelerating its expansion again.
Forward Industries recently disclosed that in the last fiscal quarter, it added 948,601 SOL and SOL equivalents, increasing its holdings to 8,501,298 SOL, about 1.4% of SOL's circulating supply, with the newly added portion averaging a cost of approximately $83.
The significance of this for SOL is not just an additional buy order.
Corporate treasuries continuously absorbing SOL → the proportion of circulating supply locked/staked increases → market tradable chips decrease → the logic of institutional holding of SOL is further strengthened.
More importantly, Forward's SOL holdings grew by 13% this quarter, while the fully diluted SOL per share ratio rose from 0.0730 to 0.0806, a single-quarter increase of 10.4%.
But we also need to see the other side:
Some of the purchase funds come from the issuance of FWDI stock, and the company's institutional debt has risen to $167.5 million, with cash around $7.29 million.
So this is not simply a case of "the company crazily buying coins," but a model of capital market financing combined with SOL treasury expansion.
For SOL in the short term, I am more focused on two signals:
First, whether other SOL treasury companies will continue to follow suit;
Second, whether treasury accumulation can continue during SOL's price rise.
If SOL's price strengthens, and corporate treasuries continue to accumulate, combined with on-chain funds and ETF capital inflows, SOL's supply-demand structure will further improve.
Conversely, if SOL's rise mainly relies on sentiment but treasury accumulation slows down,UNI is paving the way, DOGE is waiting for the wind, OKB is watching the accounts
$UNI
Integrating Circle's Arc essentially extends the stablecoin exchange gateway to more scenarios. The $43 billion in Q2 indicates there is traffic, but to convert traffic into token value, it must pass through the fee capture stage. Current price 9.085U, 24h +2.24%. Rather than chasing the rally, more attention should be paid to DEX market share, LP retention, and the progress of fee toggle governance.
$DOGE
"It's about time" is emotional language, not financial language. Current price 0.09389U, 7d -3.62%, the trend has yet to strengthen. Meme coins can ignite with attention, but after the fire dies down, it depends on whether spot net inflows and contract positions take over. Without sustained buying, the hype is just noise.
$OKB
Current price around 121.5U, 24h +1.06%. As an X Layer fee asset, low Gas can attract interactions, but that doesn't mean the token is being continuously burned. The focus is on active addresses, contract deployments, and real on-chain consumption, not just daily positive candles. Applications remain, demand remains. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $NIGHT current price is 0.04439, up 12.12% in a single day, with nearly 140% increase in the past 30 days.
Many are discussing whether the speculative rally of ZEC has come to an end and funds have started rotating into this coin.
From the trend, it fell sharply from the previous high of 0.1197, consolidated at a long-term bottom, and recently funds have entered, driving a sustained rebound, representing a rotation after overselling.
Technically, it has short-term broken above all moving averages, indicators are at high levels, indicating a narrative driven by capital flow rather than a fundamental change.
The crypto market has limited funds; once a hotspot is played out, funds will rotate to low-level targets in the same sector. But it is important to distinguish that this is rotation speculation, not a value reversal.
Chasing highs carries great risk; rotation rallies come fast and the subsequent pullbacks are equally rapid. The big coin has completely confused me……
There are 3 hours left until tonight's Nonfarm Payroll.
I glanced at my positions, feeling both pricked like by needles and like I won the lottery.
I painstakingly set up short grids for $BTC /$ETH /$SOL, but today they all failed across the board. The ETH grid is down -13.8% overall, the price directly smashed through 3180, and the system popped up "Price out of range, strategy has paused trading." Big coin, oh big coin, you didn't even give me a chance to keep adding chips to the grid, you just threw me off the bus 😭.
The BTC and SOL grids are also unmatched losses, expanding all the way.
This really proves the old saying in the circle: mainstream coins are timid going long, altcoins strike with heavy punches.
Altcoins are really tasty, big coin teaches a lesson.
Tonight's Nonfarm, if ETH plunges further, my few mainstream grids really won't hold up.
Brothers, which altcoin are you ambushing? Share some strategies with me!
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $LINK is one of the few infrastructure assets that can connect narrative with real usage. If cross-chain messaging and oracle demand continue to grow, the valuation is supported; however, token buying pressure may not necessarily align with the business. I am more optimistic about a structural breakout, provided the pullback does not break support. If it falls back into the range, then stop telling stories. Recently, the Meme sector has shown clear market divergence. Some new coins quickly ignite traffic upon launch, while the old Memes remain sluggish, with funds constantly switching back and forth between new projects.
Many people wonder what changes have occurred in Meme gameplay compared to two years ago. In the past, Memes relied more on community-driven spread and gradually built popularity through meme culture. Now, many projects depend on launch platforms for one-click token issuance, marketing immediately upon launch, resulting in rapid traffic but poor sustainability.
Many projects lack long-term operational plans and only pursue short-term price pumps, with no maintenance once the hype fades. The Meme ecosystems across different blockchains also vary greatly: Solana's ecosystem has the most concentrated traffic but intense competition; BSC chain has low gas fees but slower capital rotation, making it difficult to sustain a continuous market.
Many traders are torn between continuing to hold established Memes with mature communities or lightly speculating on newly launched projects with explosive traffic. Meme speculation carries extremely high risk, with the vast majority of projects eventually experiencing significant declines.
What do you think will happen next in the Meme sector? Will the established IPs reclaim the market, or will the newly launched short-term hits continue to dominate the market?
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $BTC BTC Market Overview｜Current price 86405, 24H +3.12%
BTC volume breakout drives market sentiment recovery.
Logic: ETF funds flowing back provide support, US Treasury bonds and rate cut expectations are key variables, long-term chips are locked, but overhead trapped positions still exert pressure.
Price levels: Support at 85200, strong defense at 83300; resistance at 87500, breakout target 89200.
Short-term bulls dominate, contract competition intensifies, spikes and shakeouts likely on rallies. BTC stabilizes, altcoins will have rotation opportunities. ⚠️ Do not chase rapid gains, reduce leverage, and always use stop-loss.$NIGHT I'm 🌿, why do I only have these kinds of scam coins in my hands? Am I a reverse indicator or what?
Shorting, you just keep pumping, held for 5 days, still no drop, if it pumps more, it's going to explode!
10x short liquidation price 0.23! Market maker, have mercy, stop pumping, it's time for a correction, I surrender and take a loss!
If it drops 13%, I'll close all positions, orders placed!!!🔥 $SAND is up 43% and shorts are getting squeezed
Shorts still hold $3.73M vs $2.85M in longs, but they’re sitting on -$446K, while longs are up +$433K.
📈 62.7% of longs are profitable, compared with only 35.2% of shorts.
⚔️ Fresh flow is more cautious: $613K selling vs $408K buying in the last 30 minutes.
The squeeze has been brutal, but after a 43% pump and fresh selling picking up, profit-taking risk is getting much higher.The best approach when you don't understand the market is to stay out of positions. If you constantly feel the urge to trade every day, it means you have a strong gambling tendency inside. The best strategy is to wait for certainty to appear in your trading system. Following your trading system may not always make you money, but it will definitely minimize your risk.Today, the $BTC bullish candle is due to easing rate hike expectations combined with a short squeeze, not because the trend has been confirmed. BTC has reclaimed $86,000, currently around $86,100–$86,400, up about 2%–4% intraday.
Williams said rate hikes can wait until December, Jefferson also said it depends on the data, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped from 5.34% to around 5.22%.
Citi raised its 12-month target from $82,000 to $113,000. On October 1, spot ETF net inflows were $102.7 million, reversing the previous day's outflows. When breaking through $86,000, about $100 million in shorts were liquidated.
$85,000 was today's just-passed resistance; if it can't hold, it will turn back into resistance. $82,000 is the breakout platform from the end of September; if the daily close breaks below here, the correction is over. Above, first watch $86,900, then $87,400; only after surpassing $87,500 can $90,000 be clearly targeted.
Stay above $85,000 with a target of $87,400. Don't chase if it can't break $86,900. If it closes below $85,000, avoid going long.
If tonight's employment data is strong, this bullish candle won't hold!
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Traveling to Japan, USDT can now be spent by scanning a QR code
The payment network has connected with local Japanese payees: just scan the PayPay QR code with a crypto wallet, enter the amount, and the payment is completed in about a dozen seconds.
The key is that you don’t need to exchange for yen first, nor open a Japanese bank account. The payment is directly deducted from the crypto balance in your account, with the system handling the exchange settlement in the middle. Merchants receive yen, and the official statement says no gas fees are charged.
Coverage is quite extensive, with millions of acceptance points at convenience stores, restaurants, supermarkets, and shopping malls. Currently, there is also a limited-time 10% instant discount.
The offline use case for stablecoins has taken another step forward.
$USDT