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$QQQ Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the downside, yet the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high.
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with expectations at 90,000, and July and August were revised down by 60,000.
This data might have been bearish before, but the market's first reaction now is: does this mean rate hikes are not as urgent?
After the data release, the expectation for a rate hike in October dropped sharply, US Treasury yields fell accordingly, and tech stocks rallied first.
So today's new high is actually quite interesting.
It's not that the better the economy, the higher the Nasdaq goes, but rather the worse the economy, the more the market feels the Fed has less pressure to hike rates aggressively.
But I don't think this should be simply understood as employment collapsing. Single-month data naturally fluctuates, and this time there are also seasonal adjustment issues.
The market has already given some breathing room, but going forward, inflation still needs to be watched.
If employment continues to cool and inflation follows down, then interest rates will indeed be comfortable.
But if oil prices rise again and push inflation back up, today's logic won't hold as well.
So tonight's Nasdaq all-time high is not because nonfarm payrolls are good, but because the market has traded "bad nonfarm" as "lower rate hikes."Out of bullets, running deliveries, keep working $ETH Last week, $NEAR Intents detected over $50M in funds related to the Bitget hacker attempting to transfer through its cross-chain service. Its SHIELD risk control system intercepted most of the suspicious transactions and froze about $503K during the execution process; approximately $166K ultimately passed through the system. The Bitget CEO subsequently publicly thanked NEAR Intents for their assistance. Just a few days later—💥 NEAR Intents itself was attacked, with about $3.8M stolen. More notably, on-chain investigations showed that the attacker made multiple withdrawals through the BNB Chain treasury related to NEAR Intents itself, with about $3.87M eventually leaving the treasury. The investigation also found that approximately $822K of the stolen funds were later exchanged through NEAR Intents' own services. So the question arises: Did the hacker really "hold a grudge"? 👀 There is currently no evidence to support this conclusion. NEAR Intents stated that this incident originated from a vulnerability between the Omni deposit/withdrawal infrastructure and smart contracts, and said the vulnerability has been fixed and user funds will be fully compensated. But looking at the timeline, it is indeed quite a coincidence: Bitget hacked → NEAR intercepts suspicious funds → publicly thanked → NEAR itself attacked a few days later $SPCX surges?!
Tonight's nonfarm payroll data significantly missed expectations, acting as a direct catalyst
Nonfarm employment came in cold, the market is betting on a Fed rate cut, and US Treasury yields are dropping
SPCX is a high-valuation growth stock, particularly sensitive to interest rates; with rate expectations lowered, investors are willing to assign it a higher valuation.
Additionally, it carries several core positives:
1. Scarce shares, very few circulating stocks, so a small amount of buying can quickly push the stock price up, making volatility naturally high
2. Already included in the Nasdaq 100, index funds are passively buying continuously, providing long-term capital support
3. The market is re-pricing its value, no longer simply treating it as a rocket company, but as a Starlink + space AI computing power play with huge potential; institutions are optimistic about the full-year 100 billion ARR target
4. The Starlink business itself is a stable cash cow with strong revenue growth; institutions are optimistic about long-term performance
⚠️ Key risks
Its valuation is already very high and heavily dependent on market sentiment.
If inflation data rebounds later and rate cut expectations cool off, the stock price could see a sharp pullback.
Moreover, a large amount of shares will be unlocked later, bringing potential selling pressure.
October 9
328 million shares unlocked for employees and early investors
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Currently, our average price for Bitcoin is between 86500-86880, and Ethereum is around 2650.
The record is complete, let's get straight to the results. Bitcoin has had eight consecutive bullish 4-hour candles, Ethereum six consecutive bullish candles; the former is testing the highest spike level from late September once, the latter has not yet and should not stop here. After the daily chart completes, this 4-hour consolidation shows bulls strengthening, and the market outlook continues to favor pushing high to squeeze shorts.
First, list important Bitcoin levels:
Support: 86500, 85300, 84800, 83500
Resistance: 87500, 88700, 90000, 92100
Ethereum support: 2720, 2680, 2620
Resistance: 2782, 2814, 2868, 2912
Small timeframes including key cycle levels are all included.
For aggressive positions: long at 86500, add at 85300, stop loss at 84600
Conservative: long at 85800, add at 84800, stop loss at 84000
Ethereum: long at 2738-2750, add at 2718, stop loss at 2700
Conservative: long at 2700, add or stop loss at 2672, stop loss mandatory at 2650
For shorts, consider the round number 88000 and the 88888 'leopard' pattern, both with light stop loss; Ethereum can be shorted at 2800 with light stop loss as well.
In my view, there is one more push higher needed; the strength of this push depends on momentum between 87800-88888. The above is a bullish mainline strategy, which also reflects my bias. If shorting, just reverse the key levels for the opposing strategy. If adding positions, exiting or reducing exposure is the first priority; after risk is lowered, continue to trade based on key levels. $BTC $LINK — Chainlink
Chainlink plays an important role in connecting blockchain networks with external data. I’m watching integrations and actual usage because infrastructure adoption can matter more than market narratives.$SUI — Sui
SUI has attracted significant attention, but attention alone isn’t enough. I’m watching transaction activity, liquidity, applications, and user growth to see whether the ecosystem is expanding organically.ETH short positions on Bitfinex have almost been completely liquidated, with over 99% of short positions closed. Meanwhile, $ETH has reclaimed the $2,700 level, and the market logic that previously bet on a decline is gradually loosening. 📊 When a large number of shorts exit while the price remains above a key level, the short-term market structure may undergo new changes: • Concentrated short covering → reduced selling pressure below • ETH holds $2.7K → long-short dynamics rebalance • If $2.75K–$2.80K is further broken → market attention may heat up again • If it falls back below $2.65K → caution for pullback risk remains The crypto market sometimes works like this: when most are waiting for a drop, the most crowded trades may actually reverse first. So now, more important than "predicting direction" is to observe whether price + OI + Funding + liquidation data confirm each other simultaneously. #ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSDT #Crypto #CryptoMarket #Altcoins #OKXTraderVoices$CAP As I said yesterday, I don't think the whales are preparing for the next rally. A continuous decline does not match the characteristics of strong control. There will definitely be multiple bull traps to deceive more fuel into the market. I still have a strong bearish outlook #AnthropicEyesNovIPO Anthropic's IPO story isn't just about a possible $2T valuation. It's about what it costs to get there 👀
A November debut could arrive as compute commitments potentially climb into the tens of billions.
What caught my attention: AI's biggest companies aren't just racing for users anymore. They're racing to secure enough infrastructure to keep growing.
The IPO may test whether investors value explosive AI growth more than the enormous capital needed to sustain it.Why hasn't $DOT's cross-chain capability automatically translated into user growth?
DOT remains one of the market's primary infrastructure assets. The technical architecture provides scalability, but whether developers, applications, and users are willing to stay long-term determines network demand.
If upgrades continue to be released but active usage and fees do not improve, I would separate the technological progress from the token investment logic.Evernorth plans to list on Nasdaq on October 8, pushing the tokenization model of U.S. stock market treasuries to $XRP. From the initial Bitcoin treasury precedent, followed by Ethereum, to the rapid replication of mainstream tokens today, the channel between traditional U.S. capital and on-chain native assets is being rapidly expanded.
This structure packages token exposure into U.S. publicly listed companies, providing a direct holding channel for traditional compliant funds, while also deeply binding liquidity between the two markets. When risk appetite shifts in the U.S. stock market, the premium or discount on the stock side is often quickly amplified, attracting cross-border hedge funds and market makers to arbitrage between the two markets.
Listing is only the first step in establishing a compliant channel; the subsequent asset management and issuance rhythm are the real tests of market resilience. If the stock remains at a premium for a long time, the company's fundraising through issuance can bring continuous buying pressure to the underlying token; once a deep discount appears, the reverse selling pressure from arbitrageurs will flow back to the spot market through the channel.
The key window ahead lies in the actual liquidity absorption capacity after the October 8 listing, as well as the genuine pricing willingness of U.S. stock market funds for this asset exposure $XRP #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BLUR BLUR's market situation is quite interesting; it's quiet outside, but the order book is like dogs biting each other. At the 0.022 level, funds are aggressively pushing and dumping, with trading volume fluctuating wildly—a typical scene of competing manipulators cutting each other. No one is talking about it, no one is hyping it, which actually indicates the shakeout is almost over. Although the NFT sector is cold, extreme cold often precedes a rebound. What's worth watching is this pure capital struggle; no news, just the order book speaking. This kind of time is actually clean. The risk is clear too: the manipulators' scythe can fall anytime, so don't get carried away chasing highs. What do you think—is this a shakeout or a real rally at this level? 👇👇👇$BTC rose from 86266 to 87239 in 3 minutes, then quickly pulled back after the surge, currently priced at 86699.9. After a short-term sprint, it met resistance and retraced; the current position cost is 86799.5, with a slight unrealized loss.
Now watching if the price can hold after the 87239 high. The price is still above 86400, so this rally structure is not completely broken yet, but the 87239 high point couldn't hold, showing obvious selling pressure above.
The levels are clear. The 87239 above is the short-term high of this wave; only by reclaiming it will the upward attack continue. The first support is between 86400 and 86069; breaking this stop-loss level would weaken this short-term rally.
Won't chase longs right after a new high, nor flip to short just because of this pullback. Holding long positions and continuing to observe if this rebound can extend, watching if the price can retest 87239 again. #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 SNDK, let's compare this needle with the current high and low closes. SNDK 1806, is this needle inserted deep enough?
Yesterday's low was 1710, the high touched 1798 but didn't break through, closing at 1738. Today opened at 1738, the high was 1806, the low 1735, current price around 1794. Volume has shrunk.
Above 1806 is still resistance, further up is 1814–1906. Below 1735, if broken, it's easy to see 1710 first, then if broken again, look at 1661.
In the short term, first see if 1738 can hold. If it can't hold, treat it as a rebound digestion, don't chase at this price now. For those already holding, watch if 1735 can support; if it can't, reduce some positions. $SNDK The established payment narrative of $LTC is resilient, but it's hard to get a premium based solely on "seniority." If both trading volume and on-chain usage improve together, the catch-up rally can be very strong; if only the price spikes without capital following, the rebound often fades quickly. I prefer to wait for a breakout confirmation and exit if it fails.ZEC, let's check this needle against the current high, low, and close. Is the ZEC 1305 needle deep enough?
Yesterday's low was 1361, the high touched 1482 but didn't break through, closing at 1378. Today it opened at 1379, the high was 1406, the low 1305, and the current price is about 1390. Volume is roughly the same.
Resistance remains between 1406–1482, and further up at 1494–1547. If 1305 breaks below, it’s likely to see 1356 first.
In the short term, watch if 1378 can hold. If it doesn't hold, treat it as a rebound digestion and don't chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 1305 can support; if it can't, consider reducing your position. $ZEC Open a short position and wait to collect profits tonight!!
The pump by the whale today is really fierce!!
$CT is clearly starting to lose momentum!!
I'm going all in on shorts!!
From around 0.34 straight up to 0.6194
It rose 25 points today
It lingered around 0.48 for a long time
Then suddenly two big bullish candles shot it up
This kind of pump is indeed ruthless
But now that it’s pumped this far
I'm actually starting to want to short!!
$CT is currently around 0.6034
Previous high near 0.633
After that surge just now
It clearly didn’t continue accelerating upwards
Now it’s hanging around 0.60
This area is the most interesting
If it continues up
0.6194 must be retaken
If it can’t be taken back, then the funds that chased earlier will start watching each other
So I’m not waiting
Going straight short!!
Of course, for a coin that just exploded up
Shorting is really thrilling
If it pumps again
Bears will still get crushed
So tonight we’ll see if the whale has a second windTrump wants to find a new steward for AI, and the candidate is Clayton.
At first glance, this seems unrelated to the crypto world, but market makers don't focus on the news itself—they watch where the money flows behind the news.
Previously, AI and crypto were two separate tracks, each doing their own thing. Now that the White House has appointed a dedicated AI lead, it shows this sector is about to start benefiting from policy incentives.
Money is the most sensitive thing. Wherever policy leans, liquidity follows. When the AI narrative heats up, risk appetite rises accordingly, and high-beta assets like $BTC and $ETH are usually the first to be swept up.
But I have to pour cold water on this. The appointment hasn't been officially announced yet; it might only happen on Friday. At this expectation stage, what market makers love to do is first stir up sentiment, then decide whether to push further or offload once the news actually drops.
So don't get ahead of yourself now.
What you really need to watch is after the appointment paper comes out on Friday—whether the market sees increased volume buying or decreased volume selling. That will reveal the true attitude of the money.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力 $BTC $ETH Two years ago, I didn’t understand virtual currencies at all.
I just saw others saying $BTC could make money.
I got impulsive and jumped in.
My hands were shaking all day after buying.
I wanted to sell every time it went up a bit,
and regretted it every time it dropped a bit.
Later, I heard friends talk about $ETH,
saying it was more stable.
I followed and bought in.
It stayed flat for half a month.
I couldn’t help but cut my losses.
After I sold, it slowly climbed up.
I was so angry I couldn’t even enjoy my meals.
Then I started researching on my own,
and got some $SOL.
Right after buying, I got stuck.
Stuck for almost two months.
Every day I opened my account and saw red.
When it finally broke even, I quickly ran.
After I left, it surged again.
I stared at the screen and laughed out loud.
Now I don’t mess around anymore.
I only play with spare money.
No contracts.
No borrowing.
No following tips.
If I make money, I treat myself well.
If I lose, I consider it tuition.
I check at most twice a day.
Sleeping well at night is worth more than anything.
This isn’t a path for ordinary people to get rich quick.
Just treat it as a high-risk hobby.
Don’t put your life on the line.
Otherwise, you’ll be the one suffering.#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, while the market expected 85,000, nearly three times the difference. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, higher than expected. Even worse, August's data was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and July's was even more extreme, revised from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000. The two months combined saw 60,000 fewer jobs added. Hourly wages rose only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, all below expectations.
The labor market is genuinely cooling down this time.
What impact does this have? Let me tell you two points.
First, in the short term, this is definitely a shot in the arm. Employment data is broadly disappointing, so expectations for rate hikes will immediately drop. Previously, the probability of a rate hike in October was around 50%, but now it’s likely to fall below 30%. The dollar weakens, U.S. Treasury yields fall, funding costs ease, and risk assets can catch a breather.
Second, don’t celebrate too early. The market is currently trading on the chain "weak employment → no rate hike → positive for risk assets," but inflation hasn’t truly been suppressed. Oil prices are still hovering around 100, and core PCE remains above 3%. If CPI rebounds later, the Fed could turn around at any time. So this is not a trend reversal, just a short-term easing of pressure.
With data like this, there will definitely be short-term rallies, but don’t get carried away. Weak employment is a fact, but the threshold for Fed rate cuts is still very high. The market is currently caught between "betting on no rate hike" and "fearing inflation rebound."
Be patient and observe.$SNDK experiences another sharp drop
The non-farm payroll data tonight has a significant impact
Causing quite a bit of volatility tonight
All candlesticks are wicks up and down, and a large bearish candlestick appeared on the 15-minute chart after the open
I took advantage of this large bearish candlestick to close my position with the trend
The volatility before the open is usually quickly corrected, so I closed my position during this gap
The uncertainty within the first 30 minutes after the open is very high, waiting for a confirmation which will likely last until 4 PM
My bearish view remains unchanged; once the market direction is confirmed, it will most likely be short and continue until 4 PM$BTC positive news but no selling, am I not benefiting from the good news?OKX is supporting the meme ecosystem and community on XLayer through its own methods
Memes and communities that meet the criteria can apply for exclusive tags to receive long-term ecological and liquidity incentives
The application thresholds include:
1️⃣ Active for at least 5 days, community size (X fans >1000 or group >200)
2️⃣ Main pool liquidity > 30000U, token holders > 500, market cap > $600,000
3️⃣ Top ten addresses hold no more than 20%, contracts are risk-free, no farming manipulation
Using milestones and small goals to help the community and projects grow together, enabling project teams and token holders to focus their efforts in the short term Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$SOXL top accounts are bearish, with a larger long position scale: account long-short ratio is 0.83, position ratio is 1.1; the difference in proportion between the two types of long positions has expanded by 1.48 percentage points. More bearish accounts exist, but the position scale is still dominated by longs, and the two indicators have not yet aligned.Today's trend: A bullish day. BTC started at 84,600 in the early morning, surged past 86,000 with volume in the afternoon; in the evening, after the non-farm payroll data release and easing rate hike expectations, it shot straight up to 87,000, now pulling back to 86,700–86,884, up about 2.7% on the day. The Nasdaq opened 1.2% higher, Nvidia +2.3%, risk assets all rising. Today's headline Bloomberg Línea ✅ Script review Afternoon quick comment: resistance given at 86,800/87,000, leaning bullish — the evening non-farm directly touched 87,000, direction fulfilled; just no chance to dip back and enter, more urgent than I expected. 📊 Data summary Tonight is a short squeeze: BTC shorts liquidated over 120 million in 24h, total market liquidations about 326 million. Two catalysts — non-farm data cooled rate hike expectations, 10-year US Treasury yield retreated from a 24-year high; SEC chair mentioned Bitcoin when announcing self-custody rules. Funds flowing into risk assets. Note the divergence: Seagate down over 15%, Western Digital down over 9%, storage/HDD stocks and crypto are completely different stories. 🌙 Night session and next week's levels BTC: resistance at 87,400 (September high), 88,000, 90,000; support at 86,000, 85,000, 84,000. ETH: resistance at 2,739, 2,786, 2,807; support at 2,700, 2The key indicator this week is the 10-year US Treasury yield falling back to around 5.2%. September nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, far below the expected 90,000 and also below last month's 133,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, wage growth slowed, and employment clearly cooled, which has a cooling effect on rate hike expectations.
In terms of sectors, semiconductors are relatively strong, and crypto is also strong; storage is mixed, with WDC plunging due to reports that Toshiba plans to expand hard drive supply, SNDK is weak, and MU is basically flat; optical communications and software are stable, with defensive sectors XLP and XLV being dull. Funds are returning to more elastic sectors like semiconductors and crypto, with an overall slight bullish bias September nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, significantly below the expected 84,000, with the unemployment rate rising.
Employment data clearly weakened, the market bet on the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes, the US dollar plunged, and BTC quickly surged in the short term.
Here, two things need to be distinguished:
1. Data = short-term sentiment catalyst: the instant surge is a message for capital games, pulse moves often spike and then take profits;
2. The big trend depends on candlestick patterns, volume, and intraday support; a single nonfarm payroll figure is unlikely to directly reverse the medium- to long-term trend.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 BTC is once again testing the previous high around 87000, and whether the main upward wave can break through has become the current focus.
From a personal feeling, naturally, I expect an effective breakthrough, but rationally speaking, double tops and false breakouts are not uncommon in past market trends, so we shouldn't be overly optimistic.
However, even if this time it cannot break through in one go, the large-cycle bull market structure is still worth continuous observation. The rhythm of a bull market is inherently rising, consolidating, then choosing a direction. The consolidation period could be two weeks or two months, requiring patience to wait for the market's choice.
If it successfully breaks through, the market will open up new space; if it rises and then falls back, we continue to wait for the next opportunity.
Just recording my past personal operations: previously, I made spot and contract layouts around 83000, which are personal trading records and do not constitute any trading advice.
I personally transferred spot to a leveraged account and added positions at 83000. If a suitable pullback occurs later, I will evaluate whether to continue small position layouts; if no suitable opportunity arises, I will maintain the current holdings. $BTC The trigger was pulled, the triangle opened upwards.
Non-farm payrolls landed with an increase of 29,000, while the expectation was 90,000. This isn’t a surprise; it’s a freeze.
The unemployment rate also climbed to 4.2%. Once the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped directly from 29% to 17%, and the two-year US Treasury yield plunged by 10 basis points.
What have I been saying these past two days? Employment is cracking, the shorting of US Treasuries is overcrowded, PCE softened completely, and non-farm payrolls will only get softer. Tonight, it all came true.
The market is more honest than anyone. Bitcoin dropped in a straight line from 84,000 to 87,239; the resistance at 85,200 that held for three days became the floor overnight. Ethereum is at 2,749, SOL rose nearly 5%. After three days of consolidation, the breakout is big—this is exactly what I said the day before yesterday, not a word changed.
But here’s a cold splash of water. Some economists say the 29,000 figure is a seasonal adjustment distortion, not a real employment collapse. I noted that; if it gets revised back next month, those who chased longs tonight will get hit again.
The chance of a rate hike in October is basically dead, and December is doubtful too. Once rates loosen, valuations suppressed for a month can lift, and the Q4 liquidity story can be told. Next week there’s CPI—that’s the final exam. Don’t call a bull market just yet; one big bullish candle changes sentiment, three big bullish candles change the trend.
What do you all think? Is this a real breakout or just a data-night flash in the pan?
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH $SNDK $CT has already reached an extremely high level after rising nearly 7× in just three days, with the spot listing jumping around 500% in only 15 minutes. It looks highly prone to a sharp pullback, so don’t chase the top—especially over the weekend.#USIranOilTensions #USCryptoTaxADAPTAct #ZECNears1700NewHigh BTC has surged back above $87,000, and Ethereum has also returned above $2,700. Previously, there were concerns about whether the market would continue to pull back, but now the bulls are starting to gain momentum again.
There are two signals behind this rise worth noting.
One is the US September non-farm payroll data just released, showing only 29,000 new jobs added, far below the market expectation of 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Cooling employment eases market worries about further Fed rate hikes, putting pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields, which in turn supports risk assets.
The other is institutional funds. In September, US spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $2.65 billion. Although this is less than August, it is still the second-highest monthly net inflow since last October. What does this indicate? At least from the capital data perspective, institutional demand for Bitcoin allocation has not disappeared.
My own understanding is: this rally is not just short covering; the macro environment and institutional funds are also providing support. But don’t get too excited just because of a big bullish candle. Although weaker non-farm data eases rate hike pressure, it also reflects a cooling US labor market. We still need to watch inflation and the Fed’s stance. The market won’t skyrocket just because of one data report.
Next, I’m focusing on two key levels: whether BTC can effectively hold above $87,000, and if it does, then watch $90,000; on the downside, first watch support near $85,000, then further down around $82,000. For Ethereum, the key is whether it can hold near $2,700 and whether it can continue pushing toward $2,800.According to HTX market data, on October 2, the altcoin sector collectively surged: SAND skyrocketed 62.52% in 24 hours, ENJ rose 27.88%, and MANA, SKY, GALA, MAGIC, and others all followed with gains starting at 15%. While the main market is still hesitating at the door, the small coins already set off fireworks 🎇
If you ask me, when the whole sector jumps together like this, chasing in is likely to make you the fireworks themselves 🤣
$BTC $ETH $SAND$BTC has been holding up for so long! Could it be just waiting for some good news to conveniently sell off?
Tonight the non-farm payroll data will be released, and logically, this should be positive news for the crypto community.
But the price just won't go up.
Every time it tries to rise, there are many large sell orders dumping the price! This really looks suspicious, not like preparation for a rally.
It seems more like selling on good news.
Looking back at what has happened in the past few months, it's actually not impossible.
In the past two months, the market basically had no positive news, and even if the price was pushed up, liquidity was still very poor. If selling off, it might not go smoothly and could even create a big gap.
Now finally there is some good news! Selling off is indeed a good opportunity.
Otherwise, if bad news comes out again and the assets aren't sold, funds will have to be used to support the market again.
Analyzing from this logic, it is very likely that the news will be sold tonight.
This is my personal opinion, do not take it as advice! NIGHT rose about 15%, while contract open interest shrank by about 18%.
As of 21:06 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $0.04966, with a 24-hour high of $0.049999 and a low of $0.0374, amplitude about 33.7%; the current price is less than 1% below the high, with a trading volume of about $14.89 million.
OKEx daily chart shows the median trading volume over the past 7 full trading days is about $2.65 million, which has expanded about 5.6 times in this round. The most recent hourly data point (17:00) shows the nominal value of open interest dropped from about $4.85 million 24 hours ago to about $3.96 million, a decrease of about 18.4%; the current funding rate is about -0.0213%, and the perpetual contract discount is about 0.19%.
My judgment is that this rise looks more like deleveraging accompanied by price strength, rather than new longs continuously accumulating. The easiest misjudgment is to interpret the decline in open interest as risk having been fully released; negative funding rates and discounts only indicate weakness on the contract side and do not prove that spot support will persist.
Next, watch $0.049999 and $0.04313. If volume expands and price breaks above the previous high without a rapid rebound in open interest, the deleveraging-driven upward structure remains; if it falls below $0.04313 and open interest continues to decline, it indicates that position reductions have not been met with new support.
$NIGHT A while ago, I was scrolling through my phone and saw someone talking about crypto
They said just hold $BTC
After hearing that, I felt an itch in my heart
That night, I downloaded an exchange app
Spent a long time verifying
After buying, my hands were shaking
Then I started watching the market
When it went up a bit, I wanted to sell
When it dropped a bit, I wanted to buy more
Tossing and turning back and forth
Lost quite a bit on fees
Later, a friend said $ETH is stable
So I bought that too
After buying, it just sideways traded
After a few days of sideways, I couldn’t take it
I sold
After selling, it slowly went up
I just looked at the screen and wanted to laugh
Later, I blindly tried
Touched some $SOL
After buying, I got stuck
Stuck for almost two months
Every day opening the account showed red
Once I broke even, I ran immediately
After I ran, it surged again
I was so mad I slapped my thigh
Now I’ve figured it out
Only play with spare money
Don’t touch contracts
Don’t borrow money
Don’t listen to tips
If you make money, treat yourself to a nice meal
If you lose, just consider it tuition
Look at it at most twice a day
Being able to sleep soundly at night is better than anything
This isn’t a path for ordinary people to get rich quick
Just treat it as a high-risk hobby
Don’t put your life on the line#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Yesterday I took quite a hit, but today my account went from 858.22 back up to 1,021.13, an increase of 162.91. But honestly, what made me change my mind wasn’t the money I made today.
It was those numbers: $LINK grid had an unrealized loss of up to 55.88%, $ONDO closed with a loss of 53.08%, $QUANT lost 91.96%. And there was a short Martingale that was showing an unrealized gain of 59.59% the day before, but in one day turned into a loss of 44.11%. All of these happened on single trades, not the whole account.
So today I did something pretty boring: I split my positions.
Now I have seven grids, the largest single trade is 150 U, previously the largest was 400 U. I haven’t opened any Martingale trades. Also, I realized I have a habit when building grids: the upper boundary of each grid is 1.5 times the lower boundary, which means leaving a 22.5% error margin for price. I never left this margin before.
The six grids I built around 7 AM caught this wave perfectly (nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, BTC touched 87,239), and now all seven grids are showing unrealized gains totaling 105.54.
*I don’t think I’ve become more accurate, I just made myself smaller.*$DASH DASH has really been acting a bit strange lately.
The scariest thing about these old coins isn’t that they rise fast,
but that everyone thinks they should have died long ago, yet they just don’t.
Every time it dips, there are shorts; every time it pumps, people shout "dead cat bounce." The more shorts pile up, the more fuel it seems to have.
I was shorting DASH all along and got wrecked a few times, but now I get it:
Old coins might lack faith, but you can’t disrespect the trend.
Smoke rising from the grave might be a fake revival, but if the coffin lid really can’t hold it down, don’t you dare sit on it. 😂On-chain whale holdings can only be used as a reference; quick in and out does not equal long-term positioning 🐳
Many people use the fund movements of on-chain whale addresses as a bottom-fishing signal. But it is important to distinguish between short-term speculative flipping and genuine long-term coin accumulation.
ORDI, Bitcoin $BTC inscriptions, some whales quickly in and out, which is just short-term speculation, not long-term positioning; STETH, a staking derivative, whales' continuous net buying is what holds reference value; $AKT, distributed cloud computing power, large one-time transfers do not indicate institutional long-term optimism.
A single large purchase does not establish a trend; the key is to observe whether holdings continue to accumulate.
On-chain data is an auxiliary tool and cannot be used alone to make trading decisions without considering the market.
Do not enter the market heavily based solely on whale address movements; it requires combined volume and price comprehensive judgment.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $CAP Damn it! The CAP candlestick looks like it was gnawed by a dog, it just surged up and was slapped down by the main force immediately, clearly a shakeout!
I shorted directly at 0.0722, purely based on the chart—resistance above keeps getting poked but not broken, and the volume is shrinking pitifully, the signs of a manipulative whale dumping money are too obvious.
Stop loss is set at 0.0755; if it breaks, admit defeat and exit, if not, wait for it to drop further.
I'm not urging to rush in on this trade, those who understand can check if the card below aligns. 👇👇👇
(Personal review, not investment advice, control your position size and always use stop loss)AAVE at $180, do you dare to chase?
AAVE surged from 145 to 180, a 45% increase in 30 days, V4 deposits broke $1 billion, DAO is buying back with real money weekly—but the burn proposal is still nowhere to be seen, and the price has already priced it in early. Chasing at 180, are you riding the main uptrend or catching the last wave?
Let's look at the surface first: a breakout with volume, momentum is strong.
In the past 24 hours, it rose 11%-13%, 7 days up 24%-26%, 30 days up 45%. Market cap is $2.8 billion, circulating supply 15.4 million, hard cap 16 million—almost fully circulating, no large unlocks dumping the market. Daily chart turned strong again, 4-hour chart is bullish, volume expanded. All indicators shout one thing: V4 narrative + buybacks, AAVE is set to return to its peak.
But don't forget—ATH was 662, now 180, still 70% away. This is not a low-level start, but a mid-mountain climb from 145.
First: V4 deposits broke $1 billion, RWA is truly landing.
Around October 1, Aave Labs confirmed: V4 deposits surpassed $1 billion, active loans between $310 million and $400 million. It has expanded to Arc and Base.
The key is the Equities Hub on Base—non-US users can use Coinbase tokenized stocks (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) as collateral to borrow USDC, priced by Chainlink.
Don't get it? Let me translate:
You hold Apple stock, no need to sell it, you can borrow USDC. This is the real landing of RWA collateral, not a roadmap, not a PPT.
Aave is transforming from a "crypto lending protocol" into "on-chain Wall Street." This is on the same level as Compound igniting DeFi summer in 2020.
Second: Buybacks are happening, but burns are not yet implemented.
DAO's annual budget is about $50 million for buybacks, buying $250k to $1.75 million AAVE weekly, going into ecosystem reserves—not directly burned. Stani has said they are evaluating permanent burns but no formal proposal or timeline yet.
The market is pricing in "buybacks turning into burns" early. What you buy is not the current AAVE, but the expectation that "Stani might burn tokens."
If the burn proposal passes officially, 180 could jump straight to 220. If rejected, 180 is a short-term top.
What does buying the expectation and selling the fact mean? This is it.
Third: Short squeeze + technicals, is 180 a breakout retest or a trap chasing highs?
Futures volume about $1.09 billion, open interest about $535 million. On the 2nd, three one-hour short liquidations totaled about $350k, mostly short liquidations all day. The 180 to 187 range is leveraged-driven.
The path is clear: mid-September lifted from 113-120 to 145, on September 29 surged to 176 then fell back to 145-160, October 1 stood above 170, October 2 pulled to 187 then retreated to 180.
180 is the retest zone after breakout. Holding 170 keeps the rebound structure; daily close below 164 is a false breakout short-term.
Resistance above: 185-188 is today's high, 190-200 is round number and short-term target, 220-230 is pre-September supply. Without volume to hold above 190, don't talk above 200.
Bull vs bear, you decide:
Bulls:
- V4 deposits broke $1 billion, RWA collateral truly landed
- DAO buys back with real money weekly, $50 million annual budget
- Circulating supply nearly maxed, low dilution pressure
- GHO becomes second income stream, $12 million income past 12 months
- Short liquidations driving volume and price up
Bears:
- Burn is only discussed, buying is on expectation
- Protocol income relative to $2.8 billion market cap, valuation not cheap
- BTC dump hits high-beta AAVE first
- One year ago 284, now 180 still a correction from highs
- 180 to 187 has short squeeze elements, chasing highs risks pullback
- Critical level 180, only $10 above death line 170
Resistance: 185-188 → 190-200 → 220-230
Support: 170-172 (today's open/breakout zone) → 164-165 (Oct 2 low) → 158-160 → 145
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
Light long near 180, stop loss 168. First target 187, second 195. Reduce half at 187. No heavy positions, no leverage add at 187.
Conservative:
Wait for 170-172 to consider long, stop loss 163. Better entry 158-162. If not reached, hold small position, don't rush.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if volume supports holding above 190 and retest doesn't break 185, targets 200, 210. Abandon false breakout.
Short:
Light short on 187-190 failure, stop loss 196, target 172. Avoid shorting near 164.
Position size:
Single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital, leverage recommended 3-5x. Intraday 10% volatility already occurred today.
Risk management priorities (must memorize):
Break below 164 with volume, next supports 158, 145, reduce positions first.
BTC breaks 83k and accelerates, reduce AAVE positions accordingly.
If burn proposal rejected or buyback budget cut, short-term expectation will be crushed.
AAVE has justified "V4 over $1 billion deposits + DAO still buying," price has priced in burn expectations early.
What 180 can do is breakout retest, not all-in 200.
You are not buying AAVE, you are betting whether Stani will turn buybacks into burns.
Before burns land, all gains are pre-spent.
Better to wait alive for 170 break or 190 confirmation than add leverage at intraday highs.
$BTC $ETH $AAVE BTC retook:
$86,000 today.
Two things happened simultaneously behind this rise.
First:
The latest statement from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson raised market expectations again for:
a pause in rate hikes.
Second:
After BTC broke through, it triggered a batch of:
Short Liquidations.
This led to the most classic crypto cycle:
Traders bearish
↓
Open Shorts
↓
BTC suddenly rises
↓
Shorts get Liquidated
↓
System forced to buy BTC to close positions
↓
BTC rises a bit more 🏛️ Institutional compliance channels open, reshaping valuation logic
This is the most fundamental structural change in the current market cycle. The launch of the first US privacy coin spot ETF (ZCSH) and the first European Zcash ETP provides traditional financial capital with a compliant channel to allocate ZEC. The head of research at Grayscale clearly pointed out that ZEC's rise reflects a low starting point and a huge accessible market, rather than a valuation bubble. If ZEC captures 2%-5% of BTC's market cap, its target price could reach $1,622 to $4,054.
🔒 Privacy narrative upgrade, from a "bonus" to a potential necessity
Against the backdrop of evolving financial monitoring capabilities in the AI era, the traceability of on-chain transactions is becoming a systemic risk, and privacy demand has shifted from "icing on the cake" to "indispensable." Zcash's optional privacy mode (zk-SNARKs zero-knowledge proofs) is more compliance-friendly than Monero's mandatory privacy scheme, with about 90% of ZEC transactions already using anonymity protection. The Orchard shielded pool has grown from 1.92 million to 4.55 million ZEC over the past year.
⚙️ Technical upgrades and the "Schelling point" narrative
Technical aspect: Zcash developers are integrating the Tachyon scaling code (Udon component) into the network, with a long-term goal of achieving over 50,000 private payments per second, comparable to Visa and Mastercard's processing capacity.
Narrative aspect: Bankless co-founder David Hoffman likened ZEC to "ETH in 2021," believing ZEC has built a strong enough "Schelling point" to attract Bitcoin buying power—compared to BTC's $1.7 trillion market cap, ZEC's $26 billion market cap only needs to convince a tiny fraction of Bitcoin believers to allocate funds to sustain price growth.
📈 Technical and derivatives structure support
· Mid-to-long-term structure: ZEC price stands firmly above EMA50 and EMA200, maintaining a bullish mid-term structure.
· Supply contraction: ZEC halved in November 2025, with block rewards dropping from 3.125 to 1.5625 coins, continuously tightening supply.
· Strong bullish demand: The average 8-hour funding rate is 0.0106%, indicating traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain long positions. The 0.0100% positive rate in your screenshot also confirms this.
⚠️ Risks to consider when going long
· Technical trust not fully restored: In June, the Orchard shielded pool was disclosed to have an "infinite minting" vulnerability. Although urgently patched, the existence of potential forged ZEC cannot be falsified to date.
· Development activity and governance turmoil: The core development team, Electric Coin Company, disbanded in January, with development activity dropping to its lowest level since 2021.
· Profit-taking and whale selling pressure: ZEC has surged 2496% year-to-date, and whales have strong incentives to realize profits above the $1,400 level.
· Derivatives crowding risk: Open interest has rapidly expanded, and if prices fall, highly leveraged longs may face cascading liquidations.
💡 Comprehensive assessment
ZEC's long logic is built on fourfold resonance: institutional compliance channel opening, privacy narrative upgrade, supply contraction, and technical upgrades, with fundamental support for the mid-to-long-term trend. However, in the short term, the price faces dual tests of whale selling pressure and technical trust restoration around the $1,400 level, making chasing highs risky. 美国9月非农就业仅增加 2.9万人，失业率升至 4.2%。就业市场明显降温，市场接下来真正关注的是：这到底意味着利率压力缓解，还是经济衰退风险升温？ 📈 偏多逻辑｜短线市场可能更关注这一条 ➤ 就业降温 → 加息预期减弱 ➤ 利率预期下降 → 美债收益率承压 ➤ 美元走弱 → 美元计价的风险资产获得一定支撑 ➤ 此前押注“强非农→更高利率”的空头，如果行情继续上行，可能出现回补，从而放大 BTC 的短线涨幅 🔥 如果市场把这份数据理解为“通胀与就业压力正在缓解”，BTC、ETH 等风险资产可能继续获得资金关注。 ⚠️ 但还有另一种完全不同的解读 如果市场认为 “非农仅增2.9万”不是降息利好，而是经济明显降温的信号，那么风险资产反而可能承压。 此前 QCP Capital 也曾指出，本轮 BTC 上涨更多受到资金流和仓位变化推动，而不完全来自基本面改善。 一旦衰退担忧升温，资金可能重新流向美元和美国国债等传统避险资产，而不是继续追逐 BTC。 👀 所以今晚真正值得看的，不只是数据本身，而是市场如何解读数据。 降息预期 → BTC走强 vs. 衰退担忧 → 风险资产承压 数据已经落The hundredfold altcoins we missed back then (Part 1)
$BEAT In February this year, this token, whose main business is AI-driven music, started a major rally without any warning after dropping from 4.5 to 0.13. During this period, large token unlocks kept happening but couldn't crush the price. It only fell from a peak of 0.8 to 0.27 after the trading competition ended. Just when most people thought the market was over, the 🐶 whale suddenly made a surprise comeback, pulling the price from 0.27 to a high of 11.67! Looking back at the whale's tactics with this coin, it rose from 0.13 to 11.67, nearly a hundredfold increase. During this time, two extreme shakeouts were used to trick retail investors into selling their chips, while the whale held 90% of the spot tokens, achieving high-level market control. At that time, very few people actually made money on this coin because the short position ratio was always above 70%, and just the funding fees exhausted most people. Meanwhile, those going long couldn't hold onto their chips! I perfectly missed this coin; I never dared to buy because I couldn't understand its fundamentals or predict when the whale would pump or dump. Fortunately, I didn't participate. But looking back now, this coin was relatively easier to trade among the so-called "monster coins," with only two or three spike manipulations!The opening market is slightly bullish on the internal market. Yesterday, SPY precisely rebounded at the 759.57 line, and today both indices opened higher. QQQ gapped up above the previous high of 748.65 on June 3rd and is still attempting an effective breakout. First, watch if it can close above 748.65 today and not fall back on Monday; SPY has regained above 766.86 and the 8-day moving average, currently consolidating just past our 770.43 line, as long as it doesn't fall back below 766.86.Complete CORE roadmap leaked, main focus locked on BTCFi
Recently, the external network has reorganized the foundation's implementation logic, no longer scattered single-point benefits, but a clear phased roadmap based on Bitcoin liquidity.
The entire roadmap breaks down the future focus into three major battlefields:
▪️ Technology iteration | Strengthening the decentralized foundation
Continuously optimize Satoshi Plus consensus performance to accelerate final transaction confirmation; validator nodes expanded from 31 to 41 seats, official foundation nodes gradually relinquishing block production weight; simultaneously improve BTC dual staking base layer and LST liquid staking infrastructure, gradually returning network control to global nodes and staking users.
▪️ BTCFi commercialization | From narrative to cash flow
Focus on tackling the liquid staking market, AMP asset module, and the highly watched SatPay payment system; connect Bitcoin ecosystem fees, enterprise services, and financial scenario revenue loops, enabling real business income to flow back to CORE, breaking away from the old model relying solely on inflation rewards.
▪️ On-chain governance | Treasury and power gradually handed over to the community
Promote the implementation of treasury multi-signature co-management, with ecosystem budgets, inflation parameters, and staking rules jointly voted on through CIP on-chain proposals; expand to new scenarios such as RWA and AI computing power integration, attracting more external developers and institutions. $CORE $BTC has reached a critical position, so don't blink next.
Currently, the price is approaching $87,000 again, and the short-term structure is clearly stronger than before.
But what really deserves attention in trading are two levels:
On the upside, watch if $87,000 can be broken through and hold;
On the downside, watch the support after a pullback around $85,000.
If after the breakout there is a low-volume pullback followed by another high-volume push up, the structure will be healthier.
Conversely, if it quickly falls back below $85,000 after a spike, it indicates insufficient breakout strength.
Now is not the time to guess the rise or fall, but to wait for the market to show its direction.Last fall, I was bored and came across a video about virtual currency. The person said holding $BTC without moving it could turn things around. After listening, I got excited and downloaded an exchange app that same night. It took me a while to get verified. My hands were shaking when I bought. After buying, I started watching the market closely. When it went up a bit, I wanted to sell; when it dropped a bit, I wanted to buy more. After a week of messing around, I lost quite a bit in fees. Later, a friend told me to look at $ETH, saying it was a bit more stable. I bought in, but it just stayed flat. After a few days of sideways movement, I couldn’t take it and sold. After I sold, it slowly climbed. Watching the screen, I just wanted to laugh. Then I started dabbling on my own and touched $SOL. After buying, I got stuck. I was stuck for almost two months, opening my account every day to see red. When it finally broke even, I ran immediately. After I left, it surged again. I was so mad I slapped my thigh. Now I’ve figured it out: only play with spare money, don’t touch contracts, don’t borrow money, don’t listen to trading tips. If you make money, treat yourself to a nice meal. If you lose, just consider it tuition. Check the market at most twice a day. Being able to sleep well at night is better than anything. This isn’t a path for ordinary people to get rich quickly. Just treat it as a high-risk hobby. Don’t put your life on the line. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 This is the last major employment data before the Federal Reserve's October 28 interest rate meeting, and it is the main switch for global markets this week. How soft the data is, how the market prices it, and where it will go next are all explained in this article. 1. Data release: Three numbers, all wrong in the same direction New nonfarm payrolls: 29,000 (market expectation 90,000, previous value 162,000). This means: only one-third of the expectation was met, equivalent to the job market stepping on the brakes itself. Unemployment rate: 4.2% (expected 4.1%, previous 4.1%). In plain terms, the threshold that held at 4.1% for seven whole months has been broken. Average hourly earnings: month-on-month increase of only 0.1% (expected 0.2%–0.3%), year-on-year 3.0% (expected 3.2%), the lowest annual wage growth rate since May 2021. This means: even the last trigger of inflation, wages, is cooling down. Labor force participation rate is 61.8%, employment-population ratio 59.2%, long-term unemployed 1.9 million, accounting for 27.1% of all unemployed. Industry structure: healthcare +17,000, construction +11,000, manufacturing continues to increase; lagging sectors are government, information, professional and business services, financial activities. In short, only healthcare and construction are holding up the scene. A key detail: layoffs remain at a low level. This means companies are not hiring on a large scale, but are afraid to recruit — this kind of "hiring freeze" is harder to fix than mass layoffs because it neither solves nor exposes the problem. 2. Revisions are more striking than new additions: a deduction of 60,000 in the past two months