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#美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力
The boss has something to say
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson recently stated that AI infrastructure construction is driving up the costs of some goods and services, impacting core commodity prices. Since the September rate meeting, interest rates across various maturities have further increased. The Fed needs more time and data to decide whether to adjust rates again.
This statement conveys three points. First, AI construction is indeed pushing inflation, and this is not a short-term phenomenon. Second, market interest rates are tightening spontaneously, so the Fed can wait. Third, bets on a rate hike in October have further decreased.
The market reaction is somewhat warm. Rate hike expectations have cooled, the dollar weakened, and risk assets can catch a short-term breather. But don’t rush to be bullish. Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are the key. ADP employment at 90,000 exceeded expectations; if nonfarm is also strong, rate hike expectations will heat up again, making a sustained rebound in Bitcoin difficult. If it weakens, the probability of no action in October is higher.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 5.6%, with fiscal deficits and bond supply pressure keeping this ceiling intact.
I took long Bitcoin positions at 82,800 twice and 83,000 once, all of which I closed yesterday, now holding no position. I won’t bet on direction before the nonfarm data; I’ll wait for the data to settle before finding an entry. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
No chasing highs or selling lows, waiting for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Potential Impact of Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls on BTC
📈 Bullish Logic (Short-Term Dominant)
· Cooling rate hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields fall → Opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets decreases
· Weakening dollar → Dollar-denominated assets gain exchange rate support
· Shorts previously betting on "strong nonfarm → rate hike" may be forced to cover, creating a short squeeze
⚠️ Reverse Logic to Watch Out For
If the market interprets the 29,000 increase as a recession signal rather than simply "easing rate hike pressure," risk assets may instead come under pressure. QCP Capital has previously stated that this round of BTC rise is driven more by capital flows and positioning than by fundamental improvements. Weak employment data could trigger recession fears, causing funds to flow into the dollar and U.S. Treasuries rather than Bitcoin. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH $ZEC SKY rose about 15% in one day to around 0.093, and S&P just gave a stable outlook, so I'm not chasing for now.
Observed: OKX daily K opened around 0.081, high 0.095, low about 0.080, currently about 0.093, up roughly 15% from yesterday's close of about 0.081, with a noticeable increase in trading volume.
Same day catalyst: S&P Global released Sky's annual review on 10/2, highlighting strengthened treasury management, increased capital, and a stable outlook; recently Galaxy disclosed about $100 million sUSDS recorded as institutional collateral.
Simply put: This is a bullish sentiment candle driven by rating endorsement combined with large capital inventory narrative, not because the protocol suddenly earned a big chunk of fees today, nor should it be seen as deflation realized overnight.
I think short-term chasing this candle is unwise—the high of 0.095 is almost at the current price, so optimistic expectations are already priced in.
My approach: just observe without chasing the high, wait for a pullback or see if new funds follow at the Singapore summit on 10/6 before deciding.
If invalidated, watch for a break below today's low of about 0.080 to continue down, or if it can firmly hold above about 0.095 before considering joining.
Are you waiting for a pullback and capital follow-up before acting, or do you think the S&P stable outlook is strong enough to get in directly?
$SKY $ETH $BTC
#US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously saw outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm$ATOM Tokenomics Reform: Shifting from "Inflation-Driven" to "Buyback + Burn"
This is the core variable determining ATOM's long-term price ceiling.
Implemented reforms: The maximum inflation parameter has been reduced from 20% to 10%, and the staking annual interest rate has dropped from 19% to 13.4%.
Key mechanisms underway:
· Osmosis Buyback Proposal: Cancel new ATOM minting and instead use DEX protocol revenue to buy back ATOM on the open market, with a total scale limit within 2.5% of the total supply. This proposal has entered the Cosmos Hub governance discussion phase.
· Proposal 868 (Minimum Inflation Reduced to 0%): The goal is to reduce the minimum inflation parameter from 7% to 0%. If passed, once the staking ratio reaches 67%, the inflation rate will approach 0% at a pace of 1% per year.
· Gauntlet Tokenomics Redesign: Phase one research found that ATOM's core issue is not inflation itself but the distribution and usage of new tokens. Phase two will focus on dynamic inflation, reducing liquidity rewards, and expanding staking utility.
Core logic of the reform: Shift ATOM from "paying validators through issuance" to "buying back and burning with protocol revenue." If the Osmosis buyback and zero inflation proposals are implemented, ATOM's supply side will undergo fundamental changes.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓
#OKX全球资产便利店 $TRX has a real presence in stablecoin transfers, which is much more concrete than vague narratives. However, strong network usage does not guarantee that the token price will always strengthen in sync. If transaction fees, active addresses, and capital inflows continue, I am willing to follow the trend; if the chain activity is high but the price weakens, I will first respect the market situation. $BTC
$ETH
Non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30, and market volatility is expected to increase, so prepare risk control measures in advance.
BTC is currently still in an upward converging triangle pattern, with support and resistance conversion completed around 8.52. If it breaks and holds above 8.52 with volume, the rebound may continue; if it is blocked again, it may return to range-bound oscillation.
On the 1-hour chart, doji and hammer candlesticks have appeared consecutively, followed by a bullish candle. If it continues to hold above 8.52, the rebound structure will become clearer.
However, the current price rise is accompanied by decreasing volume, showing some divergence between volume and price, so beware of false breakouts and bull traps.
Currently, focus on the 8.52–8.31 range: look for long opportunities near the lower boundary and watch for pullback risks near the upper boundary; only consider following the trend after a true volume breakout and hold. If the breakout fails and price falls back into the range, be cautious of further declines. Africa's first bank has started custody services for crypto, with South Africa's Absa obtaining the license.
Simply put, previously institutions wanting to handle $BTC had to find their own custodians; now banks are taking over this role.
They support a wide range: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, and USDC are all included.
But I just want to ask: is this giving money to the crypto world, or is it coming to steal their jobs?
Once banks enter, custody fees will definitely be cheaper than native institutions, and compliance stories will be easier to tell.
But who are the competitors? Those crypto companies that rely on custody for their livelihood.
My guess is, short-term positive sentiment, but long-term squeeze.
What retail investors should really watch is not this news, but whether real institutional money follows.
If not, it’s just a licensing announcement.
What do you think? Is bank custody here to help or to take a slice of the pie?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $BTC $ETH Hello brothers and sisters, Coin Brother here. 👋 Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released. The market is expecting around 84K new jobs, compared with the previous reading of 162K. If the actual number comes in around 84K or lower, it could signal further cooling in the U.S. labor market and strengthen expectations for Fed rate cuts — potentially giving BTC a boost. 📈 But the bigger risk is a stronger-than-expected number, especially above 150K. That could shift rate e$ATOM ATOM technical value: The "external extension" of IBC v2 is the core highlight
Cosmos's technical foundation is shifting from "in-ecosystem interoperability" to "cross-ecosystem connectivity":
The IBC v2 light client is about to be production-ready, supporting Solana and all EVM/L2 chains. Ethereum is planned to be connected to the IBC network by 2025, with dozens of networks expected to be added by 2026. This means ATOM has the opportunity to upgrade from being "the security token of the Cosmos ecosystem" to a cross-chain hub connecting the entire blockchain industry.
Cosmos SDK v0.53 has been released, and the upgrade can be completed with just 2 lines of code, greatly lowering the maintenance threshold for existing chains. In terms of performance, the internal network TPS has doubled, latency has improved, and for the first time it did not crash under extreme p2p load. The SDK target of 5,000 TPS is underway.
Proof-of-Authority (PoA) proof of concept has been completed, providing permissioned chain capabilities for enterprises without needing to fork the SDK or issue staking tokens, which is a key feature to attract traditional financial institutions.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC after an afternoon of sideways consolidation, just made another upward surge, reaching a high of 87238!
Currently, the price is around 86696, with a 24-hour increase expanding to 3%, overall still maintaining a very strong stance.
The most encouraging news is that Absa has become the first bank on the African continent to offer digital asset custody services.
This entry of a traditional financial institution is a solid positive boost for market sentiment.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, this rhythm is very textbook. The "waiting for the moving averages to catch up" we talked about this afternoon has now fully materialized.
The short-term moving averages (MA5 to MA30) have formed a very full bullish alignment, with the price steadily pushing up, stepping on MA5 (86402) and MA10 (86227).
However, note the recent candlestick that surged high, leaving a clear upper shadow; after touching 87238, it was quickly pushed down.
Combined with the huge volume red bar at the bottom (bullish volume), this indicates that above 87000, some funds are taking profits, and selling pressure is beginning to appear.
The current situation is clear: solid moving average support below, resistance at the 87000 round number above.
In the short term, it is highly likely to oscillate repeatedly within this range, digesting the profit-taking from this sharp rise.
As option expiration approaches, volatility will definitely increase. Everyone must not chase the price when it surges; focus on the support strength of MA10 (86227) on pullbacks. Holding it means still strong; breaking it means caution for a short-term correction down to MA30 (84971).
Stay rational, watch the volume-price coordination carefully before making moves!Everyone was waiting for a big Nonfarm Payrolls number.
When the data came out: 29,000, expected 90,000. Previous value 162,000, unemployment rate 4.2%.
No big number came, but a big mess did.
The market reaction was even more extreme, it only jumped about ten points
That's it.
No reaction because this number was already priced in. Yesterday, PCE was soft, Williams dove-bombed, and the probability of a rate hike in October had already dropped from 70% to 25%. When 29,000 came out, the market had no new cards to play.
And this is two-sided. The zeroing of rate hike expectations is good for risk assets, but employment only increasing by 29,000 is itself a sign of economic weakness. One positive and one negative cancel each other out, so prices just stayed flat.
Another thing worth noting: the 162,000 in August, when recalculated using last year's seasonal factors, should have been -74,000, meaning it was overstated by 240,000. Such a big difference over two months looks less like employment moving and more like the statistical model shifting.
Also, even more tense than this side is the US Treasury market. Before the data, Goldman Sachs estimated that trend funds held $390 billion in bond short positions, with 10-year short positions at 99% of their historical maximum. If a short squeeze is triggered, yields will plunge, and that side will be the first to explode.
The data exploded, but the market didn't. This hammer blow will have to wait for the US stock market to fall.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
Market opens at 21:30, let's see what they choose. $ETH Bitcoin has finally pushed through $85K after spending several days stuck below the level. With nine straight days of ETF inflows and softer PCE data easing rate-hike expectations, the breakout has opened up more room for the market to move. If BTC holds above $85K, $88K becomes the next level to watch. A drop back below $84.5K would weaken the breakout, so the retest matters more than chasing the move. $OKB — $121.29 OKB is up 1.07%, supported by rising locked value and ongoing buybacks. If BTCDOGE turned mining into a game. When it launched in December 2013, its block reward was not a fixed number but a random amount between 0 and 1,000,000 coins: miners packaging a block might come away empty-handed or might win a million coins at once. This mechanism was inherited from its code predecessor Luckycoin, combining Litecoin's foundation with a loot-box style reward, adding the thrill of gambling to bookkeeping.
The random reward rewrote the miners' profit logic. With fixed rewards, computing power determines output, and mining is like routine industrial production, where small miners can only pick up leftovers from large mining pools; with DOGE, each block is a lottery draw, and even a single graphics card has a chance to hit the jackpot. The mix of threshold feeling and uncertainty pulled a large number of retail miners into the pool. Within two months, early tokens were scattered across thousands of wallet addresses, laying the foundation for the later community culture.
This design also represents DOGE's "joke gene" realized at the technical level: while others use code to pursue rigor, it uses code to create joy. In February 2014, when the block height reached 100,000, the reward switched to a fixed mode with periodic halving, ending the lottery era. But those two months of random experimentation had already completed the cold start—$DOGE proved one thing: cryptocurrency doesn't have to be so serious; joy itself can unite a community.TODAY'S JOB DATA KILLED THE LAST RATE HIKE HOPES.
Today, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, its highest level since June 2026.
At the same time, the US economy added just 29K jobs, while the expectation was for 90K.
Last month, the US economy added 162K jobs, which means the labor market is getting weak at a rapid pace.
This week's PCE data already came lower than expected, and now with the labor market getting squeezed, the Fed won't make a mistake of hiking rates.DOGE surviving its first decade was not due to tipping culture, but because of a name written into the code in March 2014: Kimoto Gravity Well.
At that time, DOGE produced a block every minute, and miners kept an eye on the profit charts, switching back and forth between DOGE and LTC mining pools. When hash power surged in, block production sped up, but difficulty adjusted on a 240-block cycle queue; when hash power withdrew, the chain idled, and the block rhythm was completely disrupted. Every time multipool swept the coins, the chain would stall.
KGW removed this window. For each block produced, it recalculated difficulty based on the actual time taken by the previous batch of blocks; when hash power increased, difficulty rose, and when hash power decreased, difficulty fell. Compared to BTC’s pace of adjusting every 2016 blocks, about two weeks, KGW’s response speed was two orders of magnitude faster. Even if miners jumped pools, the chain’s pulse remained steady.
The value of this design was later demonstrated by BTC itself as a negative example. During the period when mining machines migrated out of China, the entire network’s hash power was halved, block production dragged to over ten minutes, transactions queued up, and everyone had to wait for the next adjustment window. The same shock applied to DOGE in early 2014, without KGW, a single multipool withdrawal would have been enough to halt this young chain.
Later, during the era of merged mining with LTC, KGW passed the baton to DigiShield. But in the most fragile six months of $DOGE, it was this algorithm that held it up.People trapped in losses can't sleep well, and those who sold too early can't sleep even better.
Losing money is certain, but selling too early means missing out. The mind stubbornly counts what was missed as a loss, replaying that afternoon of selling over and over. Most people can't stand this replay, so they take one of two actions. One is to chase back, buying the same batch of chips at a higher price, reasoning that it can still rise. The other is to never dare to sell again, holding even if it rises, afraid of missing out again. The former gets more and more expensive, the latter turns floating profits into a roller coaster.
Both actions stem from the same root: judging the correctness of the sale by the later price. If the price goes up, you judge that you sold wrong, but this judgment is flawed. At the moment of selling, you only have the information at that time; information that appears later cannot serve as evidence.
I've sold too early several times. Looking back, only once was the sale truly necessary; the other times the reasons didn't change, I was simply shaken by a few bearish candles. So now, when judging whether a sale was right or wrong, I only rely on the reasons at the moment of the decision. Where the price goes afterward doesn't count as a mistake in that decision.
$SOL is the easiest to sell too early this way. The sideways trading unsettles people; seeing no movement makes them want to switch to something else. Price fluctuations themselves shouldn't trigger selling.
After selling, just remove this stock from your watchlist. Watching it only causes discomfort each time. No matter how much it rises, it has nothing to do with you anymore. $BTC US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
This nonfarm payrolls report was a major surprise to the downside, with only 29,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, combined with downward revisions to employment data from the previous two months, signaling a cooling in the US labor market all at once. Wage growth also weakened simultaneously, easing some of the inflationary pressure from rising salaries. The market immediately lowered the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates in October, causing the US dollar and long-term US Treasury yields to fall rapidly, giving risk assets a short-term boost. However, it is important to distinguish that weakening employment does not mean the inflation problem is resolved. The Fed is currently monitoring two fronts: weaker employment will limit further rate hike space, but as long as core inflation does not show a clear decline, policy is unlikely to quickly shift to easing. This data mainly delays the timing of rate hikes rather than opening the door to rate cuts directly. On the market front, macro-sensitive assets like gold and BTC have seen a short-term rally driven by this data, but it is a data-driven pulse rebound. Going forward, market attention will immediately shift to the PCE inflation indicator; if inflation remains stubborn, the sustainability of this asset rebound will be greatly diminished. Macro trading has entered a phase of alternating data battles; do not overbet on a trend reversal based on a single weak nonfarm payroll report. Focus on subsequent inflation readings and statements from Federal Reserve officials. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Nonfarm payrolls shockingly only 29,000! Closed positions early to avoid disaster, this time I really bet right 🤡
Good evening, brothers! The nonfarm results are out, and tonight's market is absolutely explosive. 🌙
Just saw the data: US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, expected was 90,000! The previous value was revised down to 133,000, a total downward revision of 60,000 over two months. Once the data came out, the probability of the Fed holding steady in October jumped from 25% to 85%! Dovish sentiment instantly maxed out.
——————
Thinking back to this afternoon's moves, it really gave me chills:
At 17:01, I manually stopped the short grid on $CL crude oil, pocketing +8.30% (earned 16.61U).
At 18:46, I also stopped the long grid on $SOON, cutting losses at -10.97% (lost 10.97U).
Still holding BTC and $ETH.
At the time, I was worried: what if the nonfarm data is good and crude oil surges? What if SOON rebounds?
Luckily, I fully closed positions and stayed flat overnight. Nonfarm data is a nuclear-level event that retail traders really can't afford to gamble on.
——————
💡 Nonfarm night insight:
The data shocked the market, instantly reversing market logic. Tonight, US stock futures surged short-term, and the crypto market is also stirring.
If I stubbornly held the grid overnight this afternoon, I would most likely be liquidated or on the way to liquidation now.
After trading for a long time, I understand: securing profits before major events is always the right move, no exceptions.
💬 Brothers, did you profit from tonight's nonfarm? Or were you stopped out by the spikes up and down?
I'm completely flat now and can sleep peacefully this weekend.
What do you think about next week's opening? Let's chat in the comments, take advice! 👇
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #原油CL #SOON #欧易 #合约网格 #交易心得 #散户日记
(Disclaimer: The above is only a personal trading review and does not constitute any investment advice. Contract trading carries very high risk, please be sure to manage risk.) #US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs: Nonfarm payrolls cool down, but long-term rate pressure has not been lifted
The US bond market is undergoing a very intense repricing. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.34% on Monday this week, a 24-year high, with a cumulative increase of over 80 basis points in the third quarter; previously, the 30-year yield also broke through 5.6%.
The upward pressure on long-term rates is no longer just about "whether the Fed will raise rates further." High energy prices, sticky inflation, economic resilience, and the huge financing demand brought by AI infrastructure construction are all increasing capital competition and the cost of long-term funds.
Today, September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, further cooling short-term rate hike expectations; but this does not mean that long-term yields will quickly fall in sync.
This is the current market's most noteworthy divergence: the Fed's short-term rate hike pressure is easing, but the cost of long-term capital remains very high.
For BTC and tech stocks, if the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5%, even if there is no rate hike in October, the valuation and liquidity pressure caused by the high risk-free rate will still exist.Whether the non-farm payrolls are good or not is not the main point
Non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30.
The expectation is an increase of 90,000, while the previous value was 162,000.
How the numbers are calculated:
90,000 is significantly less than 162,000.
Employment cooling down is the only way US Treasury yields can go down.
If this line goes down, $BTC will have the momentum to surge upward.
Common misinterpretation:
The 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5%.
If this line doesn’t turn down, even good non-farm data won’t help.
AI stocks are first cutting valuations, and $BTC is getting pressured along with them.
Non-farm payrolls are just the gunshot.
The bond market sets the direction.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, and capital enthusiasm is starting to cool down
Friends, the signal from this chart doesn't look right; ETF capital is retreating.
After the US Bitcoin spot ETF aggressively attracted $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive days, it started net outflows for 2 consecutive days from September 30, totaling about $173 million outflow. ETH ran earlier, with net outflows for 3 consecutive days already. Previously, BTC and ETH ETFs diverged, but now both are flowing out together, indicating capital is indeed cooling off. The Coinbase report also mentioned that recent profit-taking on BTC has reached a yearly high, and spot demand is slowing down.
Why is this happening? In short, everyone is avoiding tonight's non-farm payrolls. BTC is oscillating around 86,000, with many profit-taking positions stacked above. No one wants to hold heavy positions overnight amid unclear rate hike expectations. Institutions are withdrawing first as a standard risk-hedging move, which does not mean they are completely bearish.
So tonight's data is the key. If non-farm payrolls come in below expectations, easing rate hike pressure, the current outflows could actually make room for a rebound. If it exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will rise again, ETFs may continue to flow out, and BTC will need to test lower support levels. $BTC $ETH $ZECThe US September ISM Manufacturing PMI has been released
54.5, expected 55, previous 54.6
Still above the 50 expansion-contraction line, but the expansion pace is a bit slower than expected
For BTC, this data itself is not a particularly big negative, the more critical factors are the upcoming employment, inflation, and the Fed's stance
What the market fears most now is not a strong economy, but a strong economy with inflation that won't come down
So just keep watching the data going forward, don't rush to chase gains or sell off just because of one PMI 👀#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows: prices rise, but capital starts to cool
The capital flow rhythm of US spot crypto ETFs has shown a clear change. After BTC spot ETFs attracted about $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive trading days, on September 30 they turned to a net outflow of $148.7 million, and on October 1 another net outflow of about $92.9 million, turning negative for two consecutive days.
ETH showed a similar change. After a cumulative inflow of about $850 million over 7 consecutive days, on September 30 there was a net outflow of $59.6 million, and on October 1 another outflow of about $55.4 million, with capital withdrawing for two consecutive days.
Interestingly, while ETF capital cools down, BTC has broken through $87,000 again, and ETH once approached $2,780.
This forms a short-term divergence worth observing: prices continue to strengthen, but ETF channels have not temporarily increased positions in sync.
Two days of outflows alone are not enough to confirm a trend reversal. What is more critical next is, if prices continue to hit new highs while ETFs keep flowing out, it is necessary to be cautious that the rise relies more on derivatives and short-term funds; if ETFs flow back in, it means spot capital resonates with prices again.The key is not how many doors are opened, but who comes in 🐱
$NEAR deserves a new perspective.
On September 22, stock tokens were integrated into near.com and NEAR Intents, with 20 assets available initially.
In simple terms, it allows eligible users to avoid the hassle of cross-chain transactions and complete trades through a single entry point.
Convenience is what keeps people around.
But just having users at the entry point isn’t enough; it depends on how much transaction fees and token demand it generates — you can’t equate them directly.
Also, the coin price has risen about 146% in the past month, so the market already has expectations; going forward, usage data must meet those expectations.
$PENDLE recently launched a token data page that shows income, buybacks, issuance, and staking all together.
I think this is more practical than hyping new concepts.
People get excited just seeing buybacks, but now you can also see how many new tokens were issued and whether income has grown.
More buybacks don’t necessarily mean reduced circulation; whether the business can sustain earnings determines how long this mechanism can last.
For $ARB, we need to separate technology adoption from coin price benefits.
Robinhood Chain adopted Arbitrum technology, and this was implemented back in July.
Having customers means the technology has a market, but it doesn’t directly mean everyone must buy the coin.
I want to see the subsequent revenue generated by the business and how token holders benefit.
If this step isn’t clear, no matter how long the partnership list is, it only raises awareness for now.Trading Iron Rules
1. Only copy the straight-line plunge to the freezing point bottom.
It must be a sudden straight-line crash, a position where the bears have fully vented, to be an effective entry point.
Oscillating declines and gradual step-downs do not conform to defensive theory and are generally not copied.
2. Standard freezing point bottom, single position limit is 30%.
With a 30% position, you can withstand a 35-point loss during fluctuations and remain stable.
Exceeding 30%, even by just 20%, changes the mindset, causes fear, and makes it impossible to hold.
3. Non-standard positions (oscillating kills, non-straight freezing points), position capped at 30%, no increase to 50% allowed.
Use position sizing to regulate your trades to avoid major issues.
4. New buying rule: after entry, if the market drops and breaks the 21 level, immediately clear half the position.
First protect half the profit and reduce holding pressure.
5. On the first rebound wave, prioritize halving the last added position; if the market adjusts and falls back, selectively buy back this half position.
6. At the same low point, do not repeatedly buy or open both long and short positions to prevent position stacking.
7. For the second and subsequent low points, only observe, no heavy positions.
8. In the same market wave, only one reverse close is allowed; after reversing, do not continue adding orders.
9. Reversing must wait for market level and K-line point confirmation before acting; if the point is not properly hit, do not reverse.
10. If after entry the market does not rebound and continues to probe lower, exit immediately, do not hold the position.
Nonfarm payrolls shock triggers a short squeeze! Bitcoin and Ethereum make a desperate counterattack, but the overbought alarm has already sounded?
1. Thunderstruck: Nonfarm payrolls slashed, rate cut expectations reignited
① September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations; the previous two months were revised down by a total of 60,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The employment winter has arrived.
② Weak data instantly ignited rate cut expectations, putting pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields, creating a perfect window for a violent rebound in risk assets.
2. Market surge: Shorts suffer heavy losses, volume and price rise together
① Bitcoin and Ethereum surged in response, breaking through previous consolidation zones with increased volume, showing unstoppable momentum.
② Open interest soared sharply, and the long-short ratio plummeted. Shorts were forced to cover and exit, forming a classic short squeeze that fueled this strong rally.
3. Fatal warning: High overbought levels, beware of emotional exhaustion
① After the sharp rise, the KDJ indicator quickly soared into the high overbought zone, with short-term momentum severely exhausted and technical correction pressure sharply increasing.
② The macroeconomic fog remains; a single data point cannot reverse the long-term suppression of a high interest rate environment. Bulls should keep a clear head amid the frenzy.
Core summary:
The "bad news" from nonfarm payrolls turned into "good news," triggering a retaliatory short squeeze. But after a sharp rise, a pullback is inevitable. Avoid blindly chasing longs at overbought highs. Control your position size, wait for the pullback to stabilize, then strike hard again!
$BTC $ETH Recently looking at $MON,
there is a key date to remember in advance:
November 24th, large-scale unlocking.
Currently, MON's circulating supply is only about 11.8 billion tokens,
team, investors, and others' stakes will start entering the unlocking phase.
So when looking at MON now,
don't just focus on the circulating market cap of around $400 million,
but also pay attention to FDV + Unlock.
For low-circulation coins, unlocking is always an unavoidable hurdle.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% US Nonfarm Payrolls Increased by Only 29,000 in September, Unemployment Rate Rose to 4.2% US Nonfarm Payrolls Increased by Only 29,000 in September: Employment Suddenly Cools, Rate Hike Logic Further Weakened
US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, significantly below the market expectation of about 90,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in August to 4.2%. Compared to the 162,000 added in August, the pace of employment expansion has clearly slowed.
However, this data requires a deeper look. Reuters pointed out that the unusually weak employment in September may be affected by calendar factors, so the single-month increase of 29,000 is not enough to confirm that the labor market has entered a sustained deterioration.
The market's first reaction was straightforward: US stock futures rose, and investors lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates in the short term.
For BTC, this data alleviates pressure on the interest rate front, but the logic is becoming more complex: moderate cooling in employment helps reduce rate hike expectations; if deterioration continues, the trading logic may shift from "rate benefits" to "economic growth concerns."
Therefore, what matters more than the 29,000 figure is the September CPI released on October 14—employment has cooled, and whether inflation cools simultaneously will determine the next phase of rate pricing. Tonight's nonfarm payroll data is 29,000, expected 90,000, a huge positive surprise, but SOL only rose by 0.5U, now consolidating at 122. BTC and ETH are both playing dead; those chasing longs are trapped, those chasing shorts are hit, a double kill for bulls and bears.
Don't blame the market, blame the crafty whales. They secretly pushed the price up before the data release, then when retail investors rushed in after seeing the news, they dumped their holdings. The positive news turned into a tool for selling, and with the market now worried about a recession, buyers simply dare not move.
The first phase is to take profits and go flat. I'm not diving into this murky water tonight. We'll wait for it to drop into a golden pit, then come back to pick up the bloodied chips.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK The market is readjusting its expectations for the Federal Reserve's October policy. On October 2, traders began reducing bets on the Fed continuing to raise rates in October, driven by the latest economic data signaling easing inflation pressures and economic cooling. Changes in interest rate expectations have a very direct impact on the market: lower rate hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields decline → dollar pressure eases → liquidity expectations improve → risk assets benefit. One of the biggest pressures on BTC and the entire crypto market was the market's concern that the Fed would maintain high rates or even continue tightening. If rate hike expectations cool further, risk appetite for capital may gradually recover. For the crypto space, focus on three transmission points: first, whether U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline; second, whether the dollar index weakens; third, whether BTC ETF funds resume sustained inflows. If all three signals improve simultaneously, BTC has the chance to continue being the first choice for capital inflows, with funds potentially spreading to high Beta assets like ETH and SOL afterward. However, it is important to note that the market trades on expectations, not outcomes. Subsequent inflation and employment data will still influence the Fed's path. Short-term sentiment is improving, but true trend confirmation requires seeing a sustained shift in the liquidity environment. Damn, the nonfarm payrolls tonight just exploded!
September added only 29,000 jobs, market expected 90,000, more than three times the difference.
The previous value was also revised down from 162,000.
Unemployment rate rose to 4.2%,
higher than expected, and wage growth also dropped to 3%.
All four data points missed expectations, the damn job market is really cooling off.
Job openings in August also decreased,
demand side continues to contract.
Rate cuts are now certain, hold onto BTC tonight and don’t let go.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC $ETH $ZEC After the rise and increased positions over the past two days, the long position's return finally turned positive! Just now, HSBC downgraded its 2027 gold price forecast from $4925 to $4825, citing that high-yield bonds and interest rate hike expectations have affected gold's appeal. However, I still firmly believe that next year's average gold price will not fall below $5000! Gold has been hard currency throughout history and was once the world's largest market cap. Policies like rate hikes only affect gold's appeal in the short term. As long as there is instability in the world, gold will always be the top safe haven choice. During economic recessions, people hoard gold; during economic recoveries, people also hoard gold. Central banks around the world are constantly accumulating gold. I have no reason to be bearish on gold just because of rate hikes and high yields on U.S. debt!$AAVE's most dangerous misconception right now is equating "strong trend" directly with "safe to keep chasing."
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are showing strength, with RSI values at 65 and 83 respectively. The strength hasn't disappeared, but the sentiment is already crowded; at this point, what's truly important is not guessing the peak, but seeing if the high-level support can quickly recover any pullback.
Current price is 182.69, about 11.11% above the 1-hour support at 162.39, and about 2.63% below the resistance at 187.5. Looking at both distances together gives a more realistic risk picture than just focusing on a single rising or falling candlestick.
My observation line is clear: only by reclaiming and holding above 187.5 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 162.39, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 145.24. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 187.5 is only a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
Do you think this is a normal overheating within a strong trend, or has the risk already outweighed the remaining upside?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.In the competition among public chains, what does AVAX need to prove?
AVAX remains among the major public chain assets. New applications and network expansion can bring usage, but long-term pricing requires support from stable users, fees, and development activity.
If new activity mainly relies on incentives, and users leave quickly once incentives weaken, the quality of growth will be compromised.September non-farm payrolls were another shocking reversal
The previous data can be revised however they want
Luckily I didn't open a position, and I will decisively avoid it in the future
Since the launch of TeLaoKao, it has become meaningless
Gold and Bitcoin just had a quick spike up, then rapidly pulled back # Nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, July was directly revised to negative, but BTC only rose 0.2%
Good evening, family.
The data is ridiculously bad: nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 90,000, but actually only increased by 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Even worse are the revisions: July was changed from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000, and August was cut from 162,000 to 133,000, cutting 60,000 jobs in two months.
An interest rate hike in October is basically off the table, Nasdaq futures jumped 0.95% directly.
Then opening the crypto market. $BTC surged to 87,236, then dropped back in two minutes, net up 0.26%, only a quarter of Nasdaq's gain.
The order book is more straightforward: the 20-level sell orders are 2.4 times the buy orders, the thickest sell order is 28,000, while buy orders are only 6,500—someone is buying up, but can't break through that wall.
Don't chase longs or shorts. The macro is bullish, but the structure is unconfirmed. The answer will be at 21:30 when the US stock market opens: if it holds 90,000, there's hope; if it doesn't hold 87,236, tonight is the top.
$ETH spiked to 2,766 then fell back to 2,754.
For those staying up tonight, see you at the open.$XAUT 24h +0.7%, the bullish direction is set: focus tightly on 4220 and 4203
Iran responds with a more deadly warning, $XAUT votes with money: currently at 4212.6, 24h +0.7%, I am directly bullish.
At 12:11 today, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared: responses to any threats or attacks will be deadlier than before. The Middle East powder keg reignites, the market moves from 4178.73 to 4215.41, +0.88%.
The +0.88% after the event is built up by the market;
Across the market, 72 up vs 17 down, median change 2.331%, fear-greed index 72, 30-day volume ratio 1.378 with volume increase;
Funding rate 0, OI vs archive -0.7%, long-short account ratio 0.8142, longs are not crowded.
Resistance above: 4220 (24h high)
Support below: 4203 (4h SAR)
Breaking above 4220, the event-driven rally enters the second phase; pulling back below 4203 invalidates the risk-off logic, longs should not cling to positions.
Enter at current price 4212.6, cut losses and exit if it breaks below 4203, hold if it does not break 4220.
Like and follow, I will alert you as soon as the market moves.
$XAUT $BTCIn-depth analysis of non-farm payrolls: Employment weakens significantly, but this does not mean the Federal Reserve will directly pivot $BTC $ETH $ZEC
September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Previous employment data were revised downward simultaneously, indicating a clear cooling in overall employment.
However, a key point is that the unemployment rate remains at a historically low level, and the scale of layoffs is not high. Companies are stopping hiring due to cost considerations rather than large-scale unemployment. This means the Federal Reserve will not abandon rate hikes based on a single employment report; future moves will still depend on inflation indicators.
Reflecting on the BTC market, this is a typical case of buying on expectations and selling on facts. The data caused an immediate spike followed by a rapid pullback. The positive momentum was already priced in before the non-farm payrolls release.
The main market conflict now is no longer this non-farm data but the core resistance zone between 87,400 and 88,000.
- If volume breaks through 88,000 and holds above 85,500 on a pullback, bulls can open upward space to challenge 90,000;
- If multiple attempts to test 88,000 fail and profit-taking occurs, a pullback to the 82,000–84,000 range for consolidation and rotation will happen.
The overall bullish trend structure remains intact, but short-term chasing of highs is not advised. Existing long positions should protect profits and closely watch the 85,500 support level. Weakening employment is a positive factor, but a true breakout requires confirmation from incremental capital.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% 10.2
Great news! Great news!
Non-farm payrolls below expectations, rate hike expectations weaken, probability of rate cuts increases!
Although it's good news, I want to short!
BTC has been rising since the morning session, ETF net inflows reached over a billion, but after the data came out, it didn't break the previous high, only pierced the daily chart previous high near 87300, indicating this resistance is still very strong. I'm willing to take a short position, at worst stop loss if the previous high breaks.
Short short short! Live in the palace!
Gold finally broke through 4200, I told friends to hold their xau long positions when it was at 4140.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Nonfarm payroll data released tonight!!! 💪💪💪
Nonfarm payrolls below expectations, unemployment rate rising, wage growth slowing, July and August data revised downward!
After last month's rate hike, this month's nonfarm data shows employment growth can still keep up with labor supply. With this data release, it's highly likely there will be no rate hike again in October!
The market forecast for no change in October has already risen to 85%!
I think this is a short-term positive for the crypto space. I continue to hold my $BTC $HYPE $UNI 💪!29,000! The Real Signal Behind the Nonfarm "Shock": Dollar Retreat, Bitcoin Celebration? When the US September nonfarm payroll data settled at 29,000, Wall Street's previous median expectation of 90,000 stood out sharply. This figure was not only far below expectations but, notably, appeared against the backdrop of a significant downward revision of the previous value and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate. For investors, this is not simply "bad news" but a re-pricing of the macro narrative logic. "Cracks" in the Data Beneath the surface, the internal structure of this employment report reveals the true temperature of the labor market. July's new jobs were revised down to -10,000, meaning the US economy had already experienced a month of negative job growth two months ago. Meanwhile, the year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings slowed to 3%, below the expected 3.2%. The cooling of wage growth may be a more important signal for the Federal Reserve, which struggles with sticky inflation, than the number of jobs. The market's reaction was swift and direct: after the data release, US stock futures surged briefly, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising over 1% at one point. This seemingly contradictory trend—weak economic data but rising risk assets—reflects the market's renewed bet on the Federal Reserve's policy path. When clear cracks appear in the job market, the urgency to raise interest rates naturally diminishes. The "Seesaw" Between the Dollar and Bitcoin This data directly pressured the US dollar index. Before the data release, the dollar index had just crossed the 102 mark, hitting an 18-month high. However, the weak employment data weakened the$NIGHT 29,000: Dual narrative
One layer: Extremely poor employment, interest rate hikes almost canceled, positive;
Another layer: Rapid employment collapse, rising recession risk, negative for risk assets.
So, positive news materialized, but negative news appeared.$DOGE brothers, today when I opened my account, my mood was really mixed with laughter and tears. BTC and ETH, these two hidden dragons and crouching tigers, one is stagnant and the other slightly losing, completely unreliable. It's all up to Doge alone carrying the whole family forward. Overall floating profit is over 600U, which is the only comfort today.
Position update:
$DOGE: The real backbone, the eternal god! Full position 20X, entry price 0.09984, mark price 0.094485, floating profit +697U, ROI +113%. This trade has been steady all the way, from entry until now I haven't had to worry at all. Even with market fluctuations, it keeps grinding down. Target first looks at 0.09; when it reaches, I'll take half profit and let the rest run. This wave definitely deserves credit.
$BTC: Pure wooden figure. Full position 20X, entry price 84,407.31, mark price 84,434.40, floating profit +4.51U, ROI +0.64%. Opened a long for a while, just hovering around the cost line, neither rising nor falling, watching it is boring. Too lazy to manage, just leave it as the base position for now. If it breaks stop loss, I'll leave; if not, I'll keep playing dead.
$ETH: Annoying little demon. Full position 20X, entry price 2,689.38, mark price 2,689.00, floating loss -2.84U, ROI -0.28%.
#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm becomes next key
#Bitcoin ETF inflows for 9 consecutive days, ETH outflows
#US Treasury yields hit new highs frequently, long-term rate pressure not eased 🚨 As soon as the non-farm payrolls were released, BTC and ETH, which were just pretending to be inactive, suddenly woke up together!
Before the data was announced, the market was still trading in a narrow range, and funds clearly dared not bet first.
After the non-farm data dropped, the market began to reprice rate cut expectations, risk appetite instantly heated up, and highly elastic crypto assets were the first to receive funds.
🟠 $BTC, the big brother, led the rally, retesting key resistance levels upward;
🔵 $ETH followed closely, breaking the dull trading around 2700.
But one detail cannot be ignored:
Prices are rising, yet ETF funds have been flowing out previously.
So is this rise a trend restart or just an emotional pulse after the data release?
The answer depends on two things next:
👉 Whether BTC can hold above the breakout level
👉 Whether ETF funds can flow back in
Data can ignite the market, but only sustained capital relay can turn a pulse into a trend.
The non-farm data gave the market a breath of fresh air; now it depends on whether the bulls can keep that breath going.
The above is just my personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Tonight's nonfarm payrolls exploded.
The market expected 90,000, but the actual number was only 29,000. The previous value was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and July was directly revised from +21,000 to -10,000. A net downward revision of 60,000 over two months, with employment growth almost zero. The unemployment rate at 4.2% was also higher than the expected 4.1%.
This is not a slowdown; it is the prelude to a hard landing.
Before the data was released, the market had already cut the probability of an October rate hike from 70% a week ago to about 25%. After the data came out, Kalshi's market pricing forecast showed the probability of the Fed holding steady in October soaring directly to 85%.
The Fed's blade has temporarily been sheathed.
The crypto market reacted very quickly. After the nonfarm payrolls were announced, BTC briefly broke through $87,000, and ETH stood above $2,750. Within 24 hours, ETH rose 2.82%, and BTC rose over 2%.
But the real signal is not in tonight's candlesticks.
Looking back at yesterday, interesting things had already happened. The Bitcoin ETF ended a streak of nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, with a total of $3.1 billion in funds choosing to take profits before the nonfarm report. Institutions were reducing positions to cash out, while short-term speculative funds were stepping in to buy. ETF outflows, yet the coin price rose.
Who is buying? Funds betting on the nonfarm payrolls missing expectations and the Fed being forced to ease.
On-chain, the ETH staking queue is still expanding. 1.68 million ETH are queued waiting to be locked, while only 154,000 are in the exit queue. For every 11 ETH preparing to enter staking contracts, only 1 is preparing to exit. BitMine's holdings have surpassed 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the total network supply, of which 5.06 million ETH are already staked, generating an annualized yield of $358 million.
Weak data, rate hike pause, staking lock-up, institutional accumulation. Four factors resonated on the same night.
The strategy is straightforward:
BTC: 87,000 is tonight's high and also short-term resistance. The nonfarm payrolls falling far short of expectations and the sharp drop in rate hike probability are solid positives for non-yielding assets. But don't chase longs above 87,000; wait for a pullback to 84,500 to confirm support. If BTC can hold above 85,000, the next target is in the 89,000 to 90,000 range.
ETH: 2,750 is short-term resistance, 2,700 is key support. The staking queue is 11 times the exit queue, institutions are locking up, and 2,600 to 2,650 is the cost zone for whales. If it pulls back to 2,700 without breaking, longs can be held; if it breaks below 2,600, it means this nonfarm-driven rebound is just short-term sentiment, so reduce positions and wait.
Nonfarm payrolls at 29,000 is not the start of a recession but a signal that the Fed is forced to stop. When employment data is so bad that rate hike expectations collapse, the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets decreases. Don't chase highs in the data euphoria, and don't be absent at the turning point of the rate hike pause. September nonfarm payrolls fell far short of expectations, and the market's pricing for the Fed's next move may need to change
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, well below the market expectation of 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, up from the previous 4.1%. Average hourly earnings grew 3.1% year-over-year, with no obvious acceleration in wage pressure.
The most important signal from this data is that the US labor market is cooling down, and faster than the market had previously anticipated.
Previously, the market was worried about the Fed continuing to raise rates, but before the nonfarm data release, the probability of a rate hike in October had already dropped from about 69% a week ago to about 23%–28%.
So for BTC, this data is slightly positive in the short term: weaker employment reduces the reasons for further tightening, and if the dollar and US Treasury yields fall together, risk assets may get some relief.
But don't rush to declare the bull market is back. Inflation is still above the 2% target, and a real policy shift depends on subsequent inflation, employment revisions, and Fed statements.
What this nonfarm data truly changes is not BTC's technical pattern, but the market's imagination about "how long high interest rates can last." $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC ● On October 2nd, Bitcoin fluctuated repeatedly around the $84,000–$86,000 range, once touching near $86,000 before pulling back.
● The 24-hour increase was about 1.6%–2%. Short-term buying is still present, but follow-through after the rally is insufficient, and profit-taking pressure is beginning to show.
● There was a significant sell wall near $85,000 previously; on-chain data shows that sell orders at this level have been partially absorbed, but the price needs to hold above this level to confirm a breakout.
Key short-term levels
Resistance $85,000–$86,000
A recently repeatedly tested zone; only a breakout and hold above this level favors bulls
Strong resistance $87,300–$87,700
A higher resistance band and an important previous key level
Support $83,000–$84,000
Near the short-term bull-bear dividing line
Risk support $81,300–$81,500
If broken, short-term weakness pressure increases
It is not advisable to chase highs in the $85,000–$86,000 resistance zone in the short term. A more prudent approach is:
● Upward: If volume increases and price holds above $86,000, look toward the $87,000–$88,000 range;
● Downward: If it breaks below $83,000 and ETFs continue to flow out, a short-term retest near $81,500 is possible.
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, especially around macro data releases like non-farm payrolls, which can cause spikes and rapid liquidations. Position sizing and stop-losses should take priority over directional judgment.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 ⚽️ $OFC — WHAT EXACTLY IS FANPASS? FanPass, developed by OneFootball Club, is an on-chain fan identity system — not a standalone token or simply a membership card. Think of it as your “fan passport” inside the OneFootball ecosystem. 👇 🔹 Identity: Users connect through an existing OneFootball account — Google, Apple, Facebook, or email — along with a ".football" ID. The project reported around 202K FanPass accounts by the end of September. 🔹 Reputation: FanPass connects to FanScore. Activities#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
"Brother Ci interprets the non-farm payroll data"
The non-farm payroll data is out: September added 84,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 90,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%, average hourly earnings up 3.2%. On the surface, it looks weak, but this week's leading indicators are not bad: ADP at 90,000 exceeded expectations, ISM manufacturing employment at 52.7, initial jobless claims dropped to 196,000. The data conflicts with each other, and the market can't find a consensus direction.
For BTC, this set of data did not further heat up nor significantly cool down rate hike expectations. The pricing for an October rate hike had already dropped to around 27%, and this non-farm data did not change that pattern.
The market reaction was very direct. BTC once surged to 86,913 during the day, hitting a new high since September 23, then oscillated between 85,900 and 86,400. The key signal is that this rally was driven by spot funds; the perpetual contract funding rate annualized is only 5.4%, indicating low leverage, meaning the rise was not built on high leverage.
On the other hand, ETF funds are withdrawing. After nine consecutive days of net inflows totaling about $3.1 billion, starting September 30, there were two consecutive days of net outflows totaling 173 million. Profit-taking has clearly increased, and institutions are cashing out.
Therefore, my judgment on the short-term impact on BTC is consolidation, not a one-sided move. The strong resistance is at 87,000 above, short-term support at 85,000 below, and a break below would look toward 84,000. The non-farm data determines the rhythm, not the direction. Positions are not heavy; wait until the data is fully digested before taking action. $BTC $XAUT October market is gearing up, altcoin heat quietly rising
Looking back at the whole September, many small-cap coins showed impressive performance, with returns far surpassing Bitcoin, and the market's profit-making effect is gradually returning. The community is buzzing about the Uptober rally; if liquidity continues to spread outward, October may usher in a livelier round of opportunities.
Funds are gradually flowing out of Bitcoin and moving toward more elastic altcoin assets, with altcoin season-related indexes steadily rising. Objectively speaking, we are still some distance from a full altcoin boom; it only shows that traders' risk appetite is warming up.
This round of gains is not limited to a few individual coins; more and more targets are strengthening in rotation, with rotation characteristics very obvious.
Whether this momentum can continue depends on three core conditions: Bitcoin holding its price level, BTC market dominance steadily declining, and Ethereum absorbing the flowing funds. When these three conditions resonate, October is expected to see a broad altcoin rally.
September was just the fuse being lit; the real show awaits the liquidity fermentation in the October market
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH $ZEC