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On October 1, the attacker exploited an interaction flaw between Omni's deposit and withdrawal infrastructure and the NEAR Intents contract, withdrawing approximately $3.8 million from the HOT Bridge treasury on BSC. The abnormal transfers began on the night of September 30 and were completed in five transactions over about six hours, with the largest single transaction around $1.5 million. After the security layer SHIELD detected the anomalous behavior, services were suspended, and the contract was patched within about an hour, restoring core exchanges; deposits and withdrawals on 11 chains including BSC, Polygon, TON, Optimism, Avalanche, etc., remained suspended for about 12 hours. The vulnerability was in the deposit and withdrawal permission verification, not in the NEAR consensus layer! The destination of the stolen funds has been identified, leaving a very narrow window for recovery. On-chain data shows the funds were first converted to BNB and dispersed; ZachXBT tracked the flow into KuCoin, then bridged to Bitcoin; Bitquery's analysis shows about 76% has been converted into Bitcoin across 4 wallets, about 21% reached KuCoin, and some were exchanged using NEAR Intents itself. On October 2, Intents General Manager Alex Shevchenko stated the perpetrator has been identified and provided three refund addresses for BTC, EVM, and Solana, with a deadline of October 4. At the time of the statement, these three addresses were empty. The only funds that can be frozen are those still held at K Nonfarm Night: The Real Starting Gun at 20:30
PCE and the small nonfarm are just warm-ups; tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the September nonfarm payrolls are the referee the market is waiting for. If the data beats expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may surge, putting pressure on risk assets, with BTC taking the lead; if weaker than expected, rate hike bets cool down, the dollar retreats, and crypto may first see a rebound.
The market has already entered a "quiet period" in advance. $BTC is oscillating between 82,000 and 85,000, with resistance between 85,000 and 87,000 being significant, and support between 81,000 and 83,000 holding. $ETH lacks independent logic, following BTC around 2650–2750. SOL is relatively active, trading between 118 and 123, testing resistance at 123–126, with 116–120 as short-term defense.
Funds are all waiting for the nonfarm data; volume is shrinking, volatility is contracting, and it is unlikely to see a major trend before the data release. The real direction will be clear only after the numbers are announced. Don't go heavy before the gunshot; when volatility expands, staying alive is more important than guessing right.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Tonight's non-farm payrolls, what I care most about are BTC and tech stocks.
Non-farm payrolls are the real highlight of this week, everyone is very concerned. The market currently expects about 90,000 new jobs added in the US for September, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, while August added 162,000.
The announcement will be made at 20:30 Beijing time.
If non-farm payrolls are significantly below 90,000:
Employment cools down, if US Treasury yields and the dollar fall accordingly, risk assets like BTC and the Nasdaq will actually feel better.
$BTC has already touched around 86,000 again, in this case, let's see if it can continue to push towards 87,000 to 88,000.
If non-farm payrolls explode again:
The market will have to reprice the possibility that the Fed could be even more hawkish, US Treasury yields may continue to rise. Tech stocks, especially high-valuation AI stocks, will face more pressure, and BTC is also likely to take a hit first. Currently, the 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5%, which is already enough to pressure risk assets.
The data is just the first shot; what ultimately decides the direction of BTC and US stocks is where US Treasury yields move after the data is released.#SEC Chairman Atkins says will advance clarification of on-chain fundraising rules
The boss has something to say
SEC Chairman Atkins has spoken out again. With Congress legislation stalled, the SEC is using its existing authority to advance rule clarification.
Besides the previously mentioned Regulation Crypto Assets, there is a new move. On October 1, the SEC released a new custody framework allowing investment advisors and funds to self-custody crypto assets under certain conditions, including state-chartered trust companies as a compliance option.
I believe this marks a shift in regulation from blocking to facilitating. Since Congress can't push legislation forward, the SEC is filling the gap with administrative rules, streamlining the paths for fundraising, trading, and custody one by one. Bitwise CIO is right; legislative obstacles might actually accelerate some regulatory reforms.
This is a medium-term positive for the market but does not constitute buying pressure in the short term. Increased regulatory certainty will encourage institutions to enter, which is a slow-moving factor.
I took profits on my long BTC positions at 82,800 twice and 83,000 once, now fully out of the market. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are key. ADP employment came in at 90,000, higher than expected; if nonfarm is also strong, rate hike expectations will rise, putting pressure on BTC. If it weakens, the probability of no rate change in October is higher.
Long-term US Treasury yields remain above 5.6%, so macro pressure persists. I won't bet on direction before the nonfarm data; will wait for the data to settle before positioning.
No chasing highs or selling lows, waiting for signals. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Recently, the market has begun to closely follow Anthropic's IPO plans. According to the latest reports, Anthropic plans to launch its IPO roadshow around mid-November and aims to complete the listing before Thanksgiving. Market discussions suggest a potential valuation even exceeding $2 trillion, with the highest fundraising potential reaching $100 billion. (Barron's) But what's even more noteworthy is its financial data: 📊 2025 revenue: about $4.6 billion 📉; 2025 net loss: about $42 billion 💻; computing and infrastructure expenses: about $7.33 billion 🏗️; future cloud computing and infrastructure-related commitments: about $518 billion (Reuters). Of course, the $42 billion net loss does not fully represent actual cash burns; about $34 billion is related to fair value adjustments of financing instruments, so it cannot be simply interpreted as "the company burns through $42 billion in cash annually." (Quartz) So here's the question: 🔥 If a potential $2 trillion AI IPO enters the market, will it attract a large amount of capital to reallocate in the short term? For BTC, the focus may not be just on the IPO itself, but on whether it will further strengthen the market's focus on AI, computing power, infrastructure, and technology assets. If AI capital spending continues to expand in the future, the importance of computing infrastructure will also keep rising; And how BTC will ultimately be affected will still depend on overall liquidity, interest rates, risk appetite, and capital allocationAs long as the US dollar does not peak, risk assets will find it difficult to truly relax.
Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, believes that before the US dollar peaks and US Treasury yields retreat from their highs, investors may continue to deleverage and avoid high-risk trades.
There are already some signals in the market:
The US dollar index has risen 3% from its September low;
Investors are increasing cash holdings;
Small-cap stocks and bank stocks are starting to come under pressure;
US Treasury yields remain high.
The transmission logic is clear:
Dollar strength → liquidity tightening → rising US Treasury yields → increased funding costs → declining risk appetite → pressure on BTC and high Beta assets.
Hartnett suggests starting to increase bond holdings, while warning that if small-cap and bank stocks continue to fall, it indicates that the market's optimistic expectations for economic growth may be weakening, which will eventually transmit to tech stocks.
For BTC, ETF inflows are certainly important, but if the dollar continues to strengthen and US Treasury yields do not fall, risk appetite will still struggle to sustain recovery.
The focus going forward is on three variables:
Whether the US dollar index can peak;
Whether the 10-year US Treasury yield can retreat from its highs;
Whether BTC's rise can be accompanied by sustained ETF inflows.
Only when the dollar and yields fall simultaneously will BTC find it easier to sustain a lasting rally.
If only BTC rises but the dollar and US Treasury yields continue to strengthen, beware of a sharp pullback after the rally.
The real turning point now may not be in BTC itself, but in the dollar and US Treasuries.#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Macroeconomic headwinds persist, crypto world stands on its own
The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.6%, the first time since 2002. Across the ocean, Micron's earnings report is about to be unveiled; whether the AI storage narrative can sustain itself hinges on this. The US and Iran are at the negotiation table, but the gap in their cards is huge, making a deal unlikely.
BTC: 85,000 is a line that must be defended. Current price 83,074. After touching 86,000 yesterday, it didn't continue to surge but chose to hold ground at a high level; the 80,000 mark has shifted from resistance to foundation. The logic is clear now—85,000 is the defense line, 87,000 is the threshold. If it breaks above 87,000, 88,000 to 90,000 can be expected; if it can't hold 85,000, don't rush to buy, 83,000 is the next buying zone. Interest rate cut expectations change daily, ETF funds flow in and out.
ETH: Reluctance to sell is a double-edged sword
2,660, much firmer than before. 2,700 is a short-term level to watch closely. A 35% staking lock-up rate does provide support; holders are reluctant to sell, so prices are naturally pushed up. But the problem lies here—without continuous ETF buying, the gains supported solely by locked-up tokens lack solid foundation.
A few honest words
Three coins, three temperaments: BTC seeks stability, ETH relies on reluctant selling to hold up, ZEC is in a short squeeze. But the overall network leverage is high, with little room for error, and liquidity is thin over the weekend. Operationally, focus on light spot positions; don't even think about 50x leverage contracts. Use stop-losses when needed; holding losing positions has no way out. Conclusion first: Today the metaverse sector collectively woke up — $SAND surged 43% in 24h, $MANA followed with a 15% rise, and it wasn't a slow rebound but a volume breakout.
Looking at the data: SAND hovered around 0.043 from 09-29 to the morning of 10-02 for three days. At noon on 10-02, the 4H candle jumped directly from 0.044 to 0.059, with trading volume soaring from 1 million to 55.5 million — a 55-fold increase. The next 4H candle continued to rise to 0.062, with a 24h high reaching 0.0637.
The key is the funding rate is only -0.01%, meaning shorts are paying, indicating spot buying pressure is pushing the price, not a fake rally driven by long leverage. Plus, MANA rose 15% the same day (volume 7 million), with both metaverse flagships increasing volume in the same direction — this shows capital rotation within the sector.
My judgment: After three days of sideways movement, a sudden 55-fold volume surge likely indicates an event-driven catalyst (project news or high-level sector capital rotation), but the catalyst needs volume and price confirmation over the next two to three days. For those previously out or lightly positioned in metaverse, this volume-price ratio is worth reevaluating your sector allocation.
This is not investment advice. Have you been watching the metaverse sector recently? $SAND $MANACelestia TIA rose about 7.4% in one day to around 0.46, the official just showed Fibre running at 3.07 Tb/s, I won’t chase for now.
Noticed: OKX daily K-line opened around 0.429, high about 0.473, low about 0.421, currently about 0.461, up about 7.4% relative to yesterday’s close at about 0.429, touched the high point intraday.
Official blog on 10/1 wrote: Fibre across 120 validators achieved an end-to-end average throughput of 3.07 Tb/s, best reached 4.27 Tb/s in 30 seconds, compared to Visa’s annual transaction volume being processed in just over two minutes.
But the test used super large blobs, 1-second block times and other experimental parameters; the mainnet will scale capacity according to early demand, it’s not that 3 Tb/s is already running money now.
Simply put: this is a "lab throughput milestone" driving the emotional spike, not revenue or real mainnet throughput doubling overnight.
I think short-term one shouldn’t treat benchmark tests as cashing in; the high of about 0.473 has fallen back to about 0.46, the narrative is strong but the price has already reflected part of it.
My approach: just observe, don’t chase, don’t buy at the emotional peak.
If invalidated, watch for a break below today’s low of about 0.421 to continue down, or wait to firmly hold above about 0.473 before considering chasing.
Are you waiting for mainnet capacity to land before acting, or do you think the 3 Tb/s narrative is strong enough to get on board directly?
$TIA $BTC $ETH
#September non-farm payrolls announced tonight, rate hike expectations become the focus #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, capital heat cools down Tonight's non-farm pivot market is taking off across the board. Don't rush to enter and chase longs; be careful of a waterfall drop and getting stopped out at the peak.
$BTC has been consolidating and recovering for a long time, and after holding the support level, it has started to continue rising again. This morning it surged straight from the 84,000 level to a high of 86,800. Currently, after hitting resistance and pulling back, it is oscillating around 86,000 for consolidation. If it holds the support later, there should be another round of gains.
$ETH is a bit weaker compared to $BTC. After returning to the 2,700 level this morning, it only rose to around 2,730. In the afternoon, it had a catch-up rally reaching a high of 2,777, but after hitting resistance, it started to decline again.
$AAVE has risen so much already; please don't keep going up. Can it pull back a bit? Holding a short position is a bit nerve-wracking. Today, it rose 9 points continuously from the 168 support level, reaching a high of 187 USD. If it keeps rising like this, the 200 level will be reached soon.
My position plan: I am still holding my short position on AAVE, currently down about 5 points with a floating loss of 1.3 USD. I plan to observe further and consider adjusting my position after tonight's non-farm data.
The above is just my personal market insight and does not constitute any trading advice.Lance | October 2nd BTC Market Analysis $ETH
【Today's Silk Road】
Entry: Pullback to 2735–2740, stabilize for long
Stop Loss: Below 2720
Take Profit: First target 2760–2765, second target 2770–2780
【Core Conclusion】
BTC strengthened in sync today, reaching a high of 2777 before retreating to around 2748. On the macro level, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back from the 2024 high of 5.342%. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson hinted that policy adjustments will require more time, and market expectations for an October rate hike have dropped to 28.2%, easing liquidity pressure marginally. However, the US dollar index remains above 102, while the euro and pound weakened, indicating that the capital inflow trend to the dollar has not reversed yet, which will somewhat restrain BTC's upward momentum.
【Game Details】
The current pullback is a normal profit-taking move. The 2735–2740 pullback zone is a short-term dense chip area; stabilize and lightly go long, targeting the resistance above. If volume breaks below 2720, abandon long positions on the Silk Road immediately. #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Binance is transforming into a multi-asset financial super app
After approaching 300 million users, the narrative has clearly shifted.
Management has entered an expansion and productization phase; the platform no longer focuses solely on Crypto, with 7,000+ US stocks and ETFs, tokenized stocks, and RWAs gradually integrated into the same account; the account system even separates out a dedicated stock account—this is not just a rebranding, but making room for traditional asset business.
On the public chain side, TPS continues to improve, while betting on AI Agent, payments, RWAs, and institutional privacy; the founder’s focus shifts to investment and ecosystem, handing over daily operations.
In short: the exchange’s ceiling may no longer be within the exchange itself.
$BNBWall Street funds can finally access BTC more conveniently. Guys, on October 1st, the SEC dropped another bombshell. It proposed new rules to create a crypto custody framework for registered investment advisors and regulated funds. The core rule is simple: under certain conditions, investment advisors can hold clients' crypto assets themselves. Damn, this clears a big barrier for institutions to enter. The old rule required advisory clients' crypto assets to be handed over to compliant third-party custodians. This proposal lifts restrictions, allowing registered advisors who meet strict security conditions to hold clients' crypto assets on their own, without forcing them to find qualified third-party custodians. Previously, many institutions wanted to buy BTC or ETH, not because they didn't want to, but because after buying, where would the coins be stored? Who would manage them? How to ensure compliance? Regulatory rules have always been vague, so many institutions are still hesitant to enter the market. Now, the SEC's proposal allows investment advisors and funds to adopt new crypto asset custody methods if conditions are met, using eligible state trust companies for custody. In some cases, institutions are also allowed to conduct self-custody of crypto assets. This is an important step for institutions to enter the market, lowering the threshold for traditional institutions to enter crypto. Previously, many traditional asset managers were stuck in custody, but after the new regulations are implemented, more RIA investment advisors will be able to allocate crypto assets to high-net-worth clients. This is a good thing. The direction is now set: crypto assets are moving from alternative investments into the traditional financial system with $BTC 7u challenge to 100 million!
Day 42
Principal 7u, target 100 million
Currently: 3900u
Survival cost: 2600u
Available funds: 1300u+
During the National Day holiday, various market makers, funds, and whales are all on break. This might be our strength during the long holiday; the market basically hasn't changed much, and all news and sentiment will only be released after the holiday.
1. It's surprising that Bitcoin $BTC could break through the triangle today; just hold the long positions, no need to look at anything else.
2. The more I watch $PUMP, the more I like it; daily income and buybacks are too strong.
3. $ENA has been interesting lately; besides the four major updates announced at the beginning of last month, there have been continuous moves this month, showing the project team is active.
The meme I was ambushing hit the ambush, heavy loss, mistakenly invested over ten thousand USD. The core issue is that I've been too lazy recently and haven't scanned the chain, which is not good.The stopped myocardium doesn't cry out in pain; it silently suffers from ischemia—this is the current ECG of $MORPHO.
A 4.54% drop in 24 hours—I disagree with labeling this as a myocardial infarction. A true infarction involves plaque rupture and permanent blood flow interruption; this time, the monitor shows reversible, transient hypoperfusion: the short-term RSI is stuck at 34.9, still on the borderline of functional ischemia without further decline, the long-term RSI is 48.9, and the sinus rhythm remains regular—the conduction system is intact, only the blood pressure has dropped.
But I want to focus on the two "myocardial walls" of the Bollinger Bands. The short-term price is at 12%, with only a 0.9% buffer from the lower band; the mid-term is even more dangerous, at 4%, just 0.3% from the lower band. This is not a healthy diastolic pullback; the ventricular wall is so thin it’s down to the last layer of muscle fibers, and any emotional sell-off could cause a perforation. The so-called drop is just a symptom; the real lesion is insufficient perfusion pressure, and the market is over-treating an ischemic area that could have been conservatively repaired.
The surgical principle is never complicated: do not open the chest before the blood pressure hits its lowest point. I will wait for bedside ultrasound to confirm the blood flow bottoming out before performing a bypass.
📈 Long:
Entry: $1.86 (current price -2.3%)
Take Profit 1: $2.06 (+8.0%)
Take Profit 2: $2.03 (+6.2%)
Stop Loss: $1.69 (-11.6%)
The entry is set 2.3% below the current price, which is the exact point where I expect perfusion pressure to be at its lowest and the vessels ready to clamp; the first target at $2.06 means an 8.0% reperfusion recovery, the most reasonable recovery curve after blood flow is restored; the second target at $2.03 leaves a 6.2% margin because early post-op always has a reflex bradycardia. And $1.69, -11.6%, is my irreversible intraoperative bottom line—once perforation occurs, the condition changes from ischemia to perforation, the suturing window closes, and the chest must be closed immediately without any gamble-like compression.
Short-term RSI at 34.9 is not a buy signal; the mid-term Bollinger Band at 4% is the real lesion coordinate. Low position does not equal safety; being 0.3% near the lower band only indicates the tissue has begun necrotic marginalization. Intervention must be with extremely light exploratory doses, controlling position size like extracorporeal circulation flow, not as a cardiac stimulant.
Don’t emotionally massage an ischemic heart. $1.86 is my incision line; if perfusion pressure doesn’t reach this, I won’t open the chest. #USJobsDataToday Today’s jobs report feels less like an employment story and more like a test of how much patience the Fed actually has 👀
Consensus expects just 84K new jobs in September, nearly half August’s 162K, while unemployment is seen holding at 4.1%.
What caught my attention is the tension underneath the data. Inflation is still uncomfortable, with August PCE at 3.4% and core at 3.0%, yet hiring appears to be slowing. At the same time, jobless claims fell to 197K, so the labor market isn’t exactly collapsing.
Jefferson added another wrinkle: higher market rates may already be doing some of the Fed’s tightening, giving policymakers more time before adjusting rates again.
That makes today’s payroll number more than a beat-or-miss event.
A weak print could strengthen the case for patience. A strong one could revive hike expectations.
For BTC, gold and risk assets, the real question is whether the economy is cooling enough to tame inflation without forcing the Fed back into action.Why has this wave of $LITE optical modules surged to over 1000?
1. Fundamental Confirmation
The "White-Haired Stock God" demand exceeds supply logic. Bernstein (target 1220) and Rothschild (1294.85) are intensively bullish, with the core being Nvidia's CPO volume expansion. Grand narratives like high-altitude wind energy/space nuclear energy push the wind bias higher, leading to a valuation re-rating for optical modules.
2. Technical Warning
Chart 2 shows LITE surging from $882 to $1076. The 4H line shows a bullish arrangement, but RSI (73/70/65) is severely overbought and approaching the upper Bollinger Band (1075), indicating short-term profit-taking pressure (support seen at 990-1000).
3. Personal View and Strategy
The "SanDisk-style" surge in optical modules relies on exponential expansion of computing power; Lumentum's CPO logic is stronger and faster to realize than energy narratives. Long-term outlook is optimistic, but avoid chasing highs in the short term. It is recommended to wait for overbought indicators to digest and to enter after a pullback to the Bollinger middle band (around 995) or stabilization above MA10.$AAVE continues to rally strongly. I took some profit at $160 when I felt like it was starting to turn around. However, after dropping to $158, it bounced back up again.
Greed kicked in, and with the indicators and overall information still favoring further upside, I decided to enter another position. I usually try to avoid chasing trades like this, so I’m keeping the position size very small.ETF Brief｜US East 10-01 (Previous Trading Day)
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice
BTC Spot ETF
• Single day: +$102.7 million net inflow, ending the large outflow from the previous day, quickly recovering after 9 consecutive inflow interruptions
• Top split: BlackRock IBIT alone +$195.6 million; Fidelity FBTC -$60.7 million, Grayscale GBTC -$31.4 million, multiple small and medium products redeemed simultaneously, funds highly concentrated in IBIT
• 7-day cumulative: +$259 million, weekly fund tone still bullish
ETH Spot ETF
• Single day: -$48.5 million net outflow, continuous outflow trading days, no top products absorbing selling pressure
• 7-day cumulative: +$110 million, weekly still positive, but daily redemptions continue to consume weekly increments
Market Interpretation
1. BTC: BlackRock's large buy order hedges other institutions' redemptions, representing internal institutional rotation rather than a broad market surge of new OTC funds. Price is strong, funds are recovering, but many old products are reducing positions.
2. ETH: Continues to underperform BTC, funds keep withdrawing, institutional allocation focus clearly leans toward BTC.
3. Risk points: Single-day data fluctuates greatly, requires 2-3 consecutive days of confirmation in the same direction; single-day data should not be used for trend judgment. US Treasury yields and Middle East geopolitical issues may disrupt subscription and redemption behavior at any time.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 So when it comes to doing this thing, technology is really secondary; your mindset is what determines whether you can make money. My friend who shorted Ethereum at 2768 came to ask me again but didn't dare to hold. A drop to 2753 and a rebound to 2763 scared him to death. I already told him to watch 2750 first, and if 2750 breaks, then watch 2740, haha 😄A 2.21% settlement in 24 hours — this is not a pullback, it’s a crack torn open in the foundational slab during stress testing.
The current price of $LRC looks like a steel column about to hit bottom, just 0.3% above the lower Bollinger Band — this is like standing on the second basement floor of a building looking down, with the support beams already pressed to their limit scale. The short-term RSI reads 33.4, and the structural stress indicator is approaching the load-bearing wall edge of the oversold zone. Meanwhile, the mid-term RSI at 46.7 indicates the overall framework hasn’t collapsed, only local floor slabs are showing deflection deformation.
From the Bollinger Bands perspective: the short-term price percentile is at 18%, and the mid-term is only 11%. What does this mean? It means the building you designed currently has a market price anchored less than 10% above the historical foundation depth. There’s only a 0.9% buffer layer from the mid-term lower band — in my blueprint, this is called "zero redundancy reinforcement." Any further panic selling could cause the entire raft foundation to break through. But note, the 1H RSI has already given a buy signal, indicating the concrete curing period has arrived and initial set strength is forming.
Now looking at target levels. The mid-term upper Bollinger Band is at +6.6%, which I often call the "preset reversal point" — beam-column joints naturally tend toward this damping limit when the load rebounds. The first take-profit at +6.0% is set at 98% stress release, and the second take-profit at +6.6% is right at the farthest cantilever edge of the structure. As for entry, the real pour position is 4.7% below the current price — not buying at the current price, but waiting for the mixer truck to arrive at the foundation pit before placing the order.
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.01 (current price -4.7%)
Take Profit 1: 0.01 (+6.0%)
Take Profit 2: 0.01 (+6.6%)
Stop Loss: 0.01 (-16.0%)
A 16% stop loss is equivalent to equipping this building with seismic isolation bearings — if it can’t withstand this displacement, it means the Rollup foundation in its whitepaper is fake. I’ve reviewed too many real Layer 2 blueprints; those that survive don’t rely on marketing facades but on the zero-knowledge proof main load-bearing beam.
This $LRC building is currently in the final settlement observation period before structural topping out. The short-term readings tell me the foundation is still there, but the construction team is panicking. When to enter? Wait for it to return to the pour position, wait for that prefabricated column to settle at the design elevation zero.
If the main beam isn’t in place, I won’t sign off.$PONS dropped 11% to 16% in seven days, but it’s still up 31% over thirty days. This trend is more thrilling than a roller coaster. OKX just listed PONS/USDT spot on September 15, while a neighboring exchange added it at the beginning of the month, right at the peak. Many who chased in know the risk in their hearts.
Its story is linked with ARB’s crew. PONS is the token launchpad on Robinhood Chain. CoinDesk reported that users burned nearly $6 million in fees daily just from token issuance and trading, surpassing Pump and Hyperliquid, even exceeding Robinhood Chain itself. Market maker Wintermute quietly hoarded over $3 million worth of PONS; big players are positioning.
But it’s highly tied to Robinhood Chain’s meme hype, and once the hype fades, it’s free fall. Development activity score is 0; no matter how good the tokenomics look, it’s a castle in the air. Top ten exchanges have thin liquidity, and large orders can cause terrifying slippage. It rose more than fortyfold from the bottom at 0.021 to 0.97, now giving back gains—only steady hands should catch the falling knife.
Watch Robinhood Chain’s real daily active users and fee revenue, and whether Wintermute is quietly selling.
PONS is a supporting character in ARB’s story; the main character gets the meat, it only gets the broth. When the main character cools off, it dies first. Play with small positions and don’t get carried away. Short at previous high resistance, generally only on the first surge and pullback.
The current bullish trend mainly focuses on buying on dips $BTC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Big Brother Maji added to his position again!
1.61 hundred million position, the real core is fully concentrated on BTC and ETH
Many people are watching small coins for fun, but he hasn't deviated
Heavy positions anchored on the main line, gradient leverage to play macro, small positions to test emotional coins.
$BTC 40X full position long, 546 coins, opened at 84548.90, liquidation lowered to 75542
Leverage is high, but the buffer is deep enough, specifically used to withstand sharp spikes around non-farm payrolls
$ETH 25X full position long, 34,000 coins, the largest volume in the entire portfolio
Main contributor to floating profit as ballast position, strong liquidation line pressed to 2550, allowing enough time for volatility digestion.
$HYPE only accounts for a small part, more like an extra emotional position
Does not affect the big picture where BTC-ETH decides the account's fate
Those familiar with him know: in big market windows, the main force chips are never placed on marginal targets
This layout hands the winning move to the two major mainstreams—BTC for elasticity, ETH to support the base, small positions to ride sector heat
But be clear: 40X, 25X full positions are still extremely high risk
Liquidation prices look far, but under extreme liquidity during non-farm payrolls anything can happen
He has backup positions to add, you don't, don't blindly rush to match #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 Opportunities always exist, but the great opportunities of any era belong to "those who have cognition beyond their contemporaries"—this is what fairness truly means, not that you now enjoy the educational boost, information boost, and cognitive boost brought by the internet and want to easily defeat those who knew little before the internet appeared, like why your parents didn’t buy Nvidia 🤷.
So what should you do? Your work must surpass all your colleagues and peers;
your cognition must exceed the vast majority of people speaking online,
this is a horizontal comparison, not a vertical one—you stand out among your contemporaries,
and opportunities will naturally arise,
otherwise, no matter which era you are in, opportunities are not yours.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 The rotation is getting interesting.
$BTC → leading
$ETH → catching up
$SOL → higher beta
$XRP → participating
When BTC stabilizes, capital often starts searching for stronger relative performers.
Watch the flow.$ROBO
Breaks $86,000 with ETF flows turning positive and short positions declining. But the real test is what happens next.
Wait for the breakout → liquidity may shift to strong altcoins, RWA, and AI.
Lose it → the decision may be primarily driven by leverage.
Meanwhile, $PI needs real use, while AI $ROBO/physical needs builders, users, and revenue.
Will it follow BTC liquidity or the physical AI narrative?
Not financial advice.
#AICapExPushContinues At 5:30, let's first check the US stock tokens — $xMSTR (MicroStrategy) spot is around 165, up about six points from the 24-hour open at 154.4, with a daily high of 167 and a low of 153, trading volume close to 7 million USD.
BTC is hovering around 86,200, and $ETH is about 2752. Correspondingly, MSTR perpetual contract nominal positions are roughly 27 million USD, with fees almost zero. In the short term, watch if it can hold around 162; don't impulsively chase the highs.
$BTC $ETH $xMSTR #XMSTR #MSTR #MicroStrategy #USStocks #TokenizedUSStocks #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market carries risks, please trade cautiously. The hardest part of quantum migration is not the new signature, but what to do with old accounts
Designing a quantum-resistant signature algorithm is only the first step. There are a large number of long-dormant regular accounts, contract control rights, validator withdrawal credentials, and lost key assets on Ethereum that cannot all be actively migrated on the same day. If the new rules only protect new accounts, old assets remain exposed; if the protocol forces changes to old accounts, it will touch on ownership and compatibility issues. The Frame transactions, code account restrictions, and old validation exit paths discussed in Hegotá essentially serve as a bridge for gradual migration: first enabling accounts to have programmable verification, then allowing new signature systems to enter, and finally gradually reducing the status of old keys as the highest authority. For the value of $ETH, the challenge is not just shouting "quantum-resistant," but ensuring that during migration normal users are not frozen, no centralized custody points are created, and no permanent backdoors are left. Whoever can securely bring the old world into the new rules will truly complete the upgrade.
Dormant accounts are especially tricky: holders may have long lost contact but still own valid assets. The protocol cannot sign migrations on their behalf, nor can it assume silence equals abandonment, making the transition design even more difficult than the algorithm choice.
Migration solutions must be not only secure but also enable ordinary wallets to complete the process.$BTC Tonight at 20:30, the US September non-farm payroll data will be released, with the market expecting an increase of 84,000 to 85,000 jobs. BTC has already started an upward trend in advance; the sell wall near 85,000 has been absorbed by buy orders, current price is 86,128.
However, a pre-data rally is not necessarily a good sign; be highly alert to "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
Even if the non-farm data is positive, it is easy to see a short-term spike testing the 88,000 resistance level, followed by a rapid pullback. The 87,400–88,000 range is the most critical core resistance in this round, with heavy selling pressure accumulated here.
The 4-hour chart has already broken above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a short-term need for a correction. The previous resistance at 85,500 has now turned into the first support; the key defense remains at 82,500. As long as this level is not effectively broken, the large-scale bullish structure remains intact.
Two scenarios:
✅ Non-farm data significantly weaker than expected: a short-term surge to 88,000; focus on whether volume can support a stable hold above this level. Only if it holds can there be a chance to attack above 90,000; if the surge lacks strength, a direct pullback will follow.
❌ Non-farm data stronger than expected: rate hike expectations rise again, directly pressuring the market, causing a quick retracement to the 84,000–85,500 range.
Volatility will increase tonight; do not chase highs. Long positions already have floating profits; it is recommended to take profits in batches to protect gains and avoid giving back all profits. DYOR, strictly control position size.
⚠️ Market analysis only, not investment advice #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $DOGE is most prone to sudden surges when sentiment heats up, and just as likely to retrace back once the hype fades. Its strength lies in its spread and liquidity, not in stable cash flow. For this phase, I only watch if it can hold after a volume breakout; if volume shrinks while price surges, don't mistake a single pump call for a trend.$SAND SAND has surged significantly this time, and many people are already thinking about shorting, but my approach is different.
To start shorting, I would at least wait until the big short holders are beaten down badly before considering entering the market. Shorting at this position is too early.
Looking at the position data, long traders have a profit ratio as high as 85.14%, while shorts are largely losing, with many shorts trapped and still holding their positions. In this situation, short stop-loss orders will likely continue to push prices higher, which is a typical short squeeze scenario.
Shorting against the trend now is like deliberately running into a short squeeze.
Don't fight a strong trend head-on; wait until shorts are fully liquidated, long sentiment peaks, and clear signs of weakening appear before trying to play the pullback.
Patience is always paramount when shorting against the trend.Many people immediately go all-in on high-risk stocks, fantasizing about getting rich in the short term. The mature strategy is actually "core + satellite": ✅ Core positions (80%-90%): broad-based indices, like the Nasdaq and S&P, relying on long-term compound interest as a base to achieve your basic wealth goals. Volatility is controllable; if you hold on, you can benefit from the growth of the times. ⚠️ Satellite positions (≤10%): use a small portion of idle money to gamble on highly elastic assets. Iron rule: losing all this money does not affect your life's savings plan at all. Most people fail by making satellites their main force. They increase their principal once they earn a little; once it pulls back, it directly breaks through all plans. The hardest part of investing is not finding huge profit opportunities but controlling the proportion of funds allocated. Long-term earners know how to distinguish: what money is used for slow accumulation and what is for trial and error $BTC Structural Tug-of-War Between Macro Pressure and Structural Support
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.33%, the US dollar index strengthened to 101.67, and global risk assets generally came under pressure, with Bitcoin briefly retreating to $83,600. In a high interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets rises sharply, causing systemic suppression of crypto valuations.
On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that although Bitcoin has entered an initial upward phase, net inflows into spot ETFs have significantly declined from the late September peak, with daily trading volume only about $6.4 billion, near the lowest since the ETF launch, and the rally has yet to gain broad capital confirmation. There is strong selling pressure in the $85,000 to $85,500 range, with $77,200 as key support.
At the institutional level, mid-term optimistic signals are emerging. Citi raised Bitcoin's 12-month target price to $113,000 and Ethereum's to $3,028, citing renewed concerns over currency depreciation, expected resumption of ETF inflows, and improving macro conditions. On October 1, total net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $103 million, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at $196 million, indicating signs of capital warming.
The current core contradiction lies in the upward shift of the interest rate anchor suppressing valuations, while institutional allocation demand provides structural support.
If trading volume continues to expand and breaks through the $85,500 resistance, the rebound is likely to continue; otherwise, rising rate hike expectations may trigger a new round of pullbacks.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Reviewed last month's trades, and indeed they were a complete mess, not following the pattern. Started with a rebound on very low volume, doing range arbitrage, and although the three trades based on news didn't lose money and even made some profit, it was clear that I didn't control the little voice in my heart, lacking patience.
Used naked K-lines of different timeframes all at once. Frequently switched targets, trying to apply four different timeframes to different targets, which definitely didn't work.
Got greedy, causing issues with the entry points of each trade. Not patient enough to execute. Attention was not focused enough.
Next, after adjusting my state, I will separate by entry points and return to trading based on the trend of the timeframe. What to do and what not to do at the end of a rebound cycle. Will strictly adhere to this.
After all, missed trades cost nothing, but reckless trades can lose everything.
If I can't adjust this month, then it's time for more self-discipline. Stay out of the market and understand myself before coming back.
If I want to make another 100x in 3 years, some ups and downs are actually good. The early stage was too smooth, which felt a bit unusual.
Wishing everyone a new month with your accounts soaring all the way.
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 The issue with ZEC is also insufficient adjustment, and it suddenly fell below the platform, causing the overall upward momentum now to be weaker than UNI.
As shown by the white line example in the picture. On the left, the white line for ZEC is still oscillating upward during the ETH market adjustment.
But on the right, the white line directly shows oscillating downward movement, breaking below the lowest point on the left. Weakness is fully evident.
It is no longer my optimal choice now. Before Nonfarm Night: Bullish, but Not Rushing to Bet
At the moment, I lean more towards the bulls. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both gradually rising—not a sharp surge, but a stepwise upward movement, which is actually healthier. I've exited all my short positions on Bitcoin, leaving only one short on Ethereum as a hedge and an observation window.
What truly weighs on the market isn't the ETF, but the high interest rates. The higher the yield, the easier it is to suppress the valuation of risk assets. So tonight's Nonfarm is crucial: if the data is weak, the market will continue to bet on a pause in rate hikes, which is bullish; if the data is strong, expectations for another hike this year will return, which is bearish.
Personally, I tend to think the data tonight will be somewhat favorable, especially since the PCE has already given some clues. But subjective judgment cannot replace the market's actual movement. Before the news is confirmed, I won't open new positions. There are too many uncertainties now, so caution is more important than boldness. Being bullish is fine, but let's wait for Nonfarm to provide direction first.
— For personal review only, not investment advice.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 In October, Ajian will suggest that everyone add two new observation targets besides traditional macro factors such as oil, the US dollar, and US Treasury bonds: AI capital expenditure and the real use of stablecoins. Why? Those who pay attention may have already noticed that the market is showing two completely different capital flows:
One is traditional capital: US dollar → US Treasury bonds → stocks → corporate financing;
The other is new capital: US dollar stablecoins → RWA → on-chain finance → AI Agent
Although these two lines have not fully converged yet, they are getting closer and closer, and the real big opportunity may appear after traditional financial capital and on-chain financial efficiency begin to share the same infrastructure.
This is also why Ajian has been subtly instilling a concept in my content for everyone over the past few months: do not view Crypto as a separate industry; it should be seen as a new layer of interface growing on top of the traditional financial system I've added more margin, pushing my liquidation price above $90K. 😎 $BTC keeps climbing, but I'm still not convinced this rally will last. Could this be the final push before a major correction? Tonight's non-farm payroll data could bring serious volatility. Even strong momentum needs a healthy pullback, and weak data could change the market direction. I'm holding my short positions and watching closely. Will this trade finally go my way? What do you think, brothers? 🚀📉 $BTC $ETH $ZEC I think breaking even should no longer be a problem
This round of $BTC and $ETH rebound
One broke through 86000, the other broke through 2700
Almost both nearly broke their previous highs
In contrast, ZEC can't even break through 1400
It's clear that ZEC's trend is weaker than the overall market
If a coin was strong early on but suddenly weakens later
Most likely the trend has already reversed
In this situation, the worst thing is to try to catch a rebound and go long
Holding a short position is actually a better choice
I am not considering closing to stop loss now
But continuing to hold the short position
If ZEC still has a chance to break the previous high
This time I plan to add to the short position
If it falls below 1300
It will further confirm the continuation of the downtrend
In short, breaking even is a high probability event now
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 🌊 Waves are back to talk about gold again!
Tonight the non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and gold is currently stuck around 4100. The market has entered a critical observation window, and once the data is out, volatility may significantly increase.
If the non-farm payrolls are significantly below expectations, for example below 60,000, the market might reprice rate cut expectations, giving gold a chance to rebound to the 4185–4200 range.
Conversely, if employment data is exceptionally strong, exceeding 100,000, gold may come under pressure and break below 4100, with the 4000 area becoming a key focus for the market.
However, don’t just focus on gold’s candlestick chart. What’s more worth watching now are U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. If Treasury yields remain high and the dollar index continues to strengthen, the short-term pressure on the non-yielding asset gold will persist.
Of course, the long-term logic cannot be ignored: global central banks continue to increase gold reserves, and the de-dollarization trend is still developing. These factors remain important variables for gold’s long-term demand.
📌 In summary: control your pace before the non-farm data release, and watch the direction after the data comes out. Don’t chase gains or cut losses prematurely.
$XAU $ETH $SOL
#gold #nonfarm #USTreasuryYields #ratehikeexpectations #Crypto #dailyorbitUS nonfarm payroll data will be a short-term market focus, with an emphasis on the combination of new jobs + unemployment rate. 📊 Three possible scenarios: 🟢 Nonfarm <70K + rising unemployment rate * BTC: likely bullish reaction * ETH: bullish * DOGE: likely stronger performance * PEPE: likely stronger performance ⚪ Nonfarm 70K–110K * BTC: increased probability of volatility * ETH: oscillating * DOGE: oscillating * PEPE: oscillating 🔴 nonfarm >110K + declining unemployment rate * BTC: possibly facing downward pressure * ETH: possibly under pressure * DOGE: increased downside risk * PEPE: increased 📌 downside risk However, the market's final reaction depends not only on the nonfarm payroll figures but also on unemployment rate, wage growth, US Treasury yields, and Fed rate expectations. What is truly worth watching tonight is how the market repricing the October interest rate path after the data release. 👀 #BTC #ETH #DOGE #PEPE #NFP #Crypto #DailyOrbitToday's Market Snapshot: BTC and ETH both rise nearly 3%
🧡 BTC
Currently at $86,145, 24-hour increase +2.84%, breaking above the $86,000 mark during the day. The rise is mainly driven by two forces: first, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day inflow of about $196 million, with institutional funds continuously entering through compliant channels; second, escalating US-Iran tensions and ongoing navigation disputes in the Strait of Hormuz have led to marginal safe-haven inflows into BTC.
Key levels: Resistance above at $86,900, support below in the $85,000–$85,200 range.
💙 ETH
Currently at $2,753.97, 24-hour increase +2.82%, breaking through $2,750. The catalysts come from two aspects: the Glamsterdam upgrade is confirmed to launch on the Sepolia testnet on October 6, with the roadmap progress providing sentiment support; BitMine chairman Tom Lee publicly stated at Korea Blockchain Week that ETH could be "well above $10,000" in the next 12 months, sparking mid-to-long-term expectation discussions.
Key levels: Resistance above at $2,800, a breakout with volume could open up space; support below at $2,680–$2,657. Institutions are willing to engage with DOGE not because of community hype, but due to market structure: this chain provides a quiet entry channel for large funds.
A single million-dollar order directly hitting the order book would have its impact cost eat into profits first. The TWAP solution is to split the large order into dozens or hundreds of smaller orders, releasing them evenly over time, each order kept within the order book depth, so that as soon as it lands, it is absorbed without pushing the price up. DOGE’s depth on top exchanges can sustain this rhythm, which is the premise for controllable slippage.
The value of 1-minute block times lies elsewhere. On-chain transfers, deposit confirmations, and cross-exchange allocations have a waiting window an order of magnitude shorter than BTC’s 10 minutes. When institutions run TWAP, margin replenishment, hedge adjustments, and OTC settlements are all stuck waiting for on-chain confirmations; if the ammunition arrives 10 minutes late, the entire execution plan must be rearranged. DOGE compresses this friction to the minute level.
Depth determines impact cost, block speed determines capital turnover; combined, $DOGE’s large order execution efficiency holds up among mainstream assets. For institutions, only assets that can build positions without disturbing the market make it onto the long-term list.$MEGA short-term reversal, why hasn't the 4-hour given up yet?
$MEGA +5.08% in 24 hours, current price 0.04838. On the surface, it's just a fluctuation, but the real conflict lies in the timeframes: 1-hour is bearish, 4-hour is bullish. When two charts give opposite answers, the least useful approach is to pick the one you like and believe it completely.
Volume does not support the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.04 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw a conclusion.
Set emotions aside first; the structure provides very specific information. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 0.05025621, currently bearish; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 0.04638075, currently bullish. Short timeframes reveal changes, long timeframes limit imagination. When both agree, watch out for overcrowding; when they conflict, watch out for reversals. You can't just pick the side that benefits you.$160, 50,000 $AAVE, 8 million USDC.
An address suspected to be from the Aave team has been slowly selling off like this over the past week.
What I admire is not how much they sold, but the way they sold it.
The coins obtained from vesting between 2020 and 2021 basically had negligible cost.
At this point, selling 50,000 per week at an average price of $160, without crashing the market, without hyping, quietly converting to cash.
The contrast is clear: previously they held coins as the team, now they are selling as ordinary counterparties.
There are still 30,000 left, worth $5.5 million, probably not in a hurry.
What really needs attention is not whether this batch is sold out, but whether the remaining 30,000 will also be slowly sold off like this.
Honestly, I’d rather encounter such counterparties less often.
They hold vested coins, while I hold real money; this game was never quite fair from the start.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $AAVE Just looking at the numbers is already exciting😂 🟠$BTC • Position: about 538 BTC • Position value: about $46.2 million • Leverage: 40x • Opening price: $84,620 • Current unrealized gain: about $92,000 (+7.95%) • Estimated forced trade-off: about $74,700 • Funding paid: about $18,500 With 40x leverage, even a few percentage points of price movement can significantly amplify the impact on your position. Next, it depends on whether BTC can hold the key price area and whether high-leverage positions will see new adjustments 👀📊 #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #DailyOrbitMy friend really cracked me up. He went short at 2768, then it dropped to 2753, bounced back to 2763 and he ran, always wanting to short but then getting scared. Now he says he'll short at 2828 and hold all the way down to 2200. He says he just needs one chance and is determined to catch this pullback. It’s hilarious. I directly asked him if he’s trading short-term or long-term. I want to see if he’ll actually run if it really pulls back to 2500.Hello, buddies, I am Chao Ge 🤝
Q: 🚀 Just now, a buddy messaged me privately: Why is it that even when the direction is right, I am losing money while the market makers are making money?
➡️ Friends, it's very common to be right about the direction but still lose money.
You predict that Bitcoin will rise, open a 5x long position, and set your liquidation price at 82000. Then the market maker first pushes the price down to 81500 to trigger your liquidation, and after you are forced out, the price turns around and rallies to 86000. Your direction was right, right? But your chips are gone, and you can only watch helplessly.
👉 This is exactly how the market makers make money. They don't focus on the direction, but on liquidity. They clearly see where you set your stop loss and liquidation price. They first aggressively push the price in the opposite direction to wipe out all high-leverage and close-stop-loss positions, eating up the bloodied chips, then follow the main trend to pull the price back up.
👉 From a technical perspective, you can understand this by looking at open interest and liquidation heatmaps. Before every major market move, there is often a reverse spike to shake out retail traders. Also, consider funding rates: if you hold positions overnight, longs have to pay interest, and over time, the cost alone can wear you down.
🎈 So remember, being right about the direction is only the first step.
Controlling leverage, setting proper stop losses, and building positions in batches are ten thousand times more important than just guessing the right direction.
🎈 Right direction but wrong position sizing, and you can still die a painful death. Don't let the market makers use your liquidation orders as fuel.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
$BTC
$ETH $ONE Short-term Three Scenarios
1. Holding above 0.00211
Most likely to oscillate between 0.0021–0.00256, suitable for watching order books and event news, not suitable for heavy positions chasing.
2. Volume breakout above 0.00256
Short-term may test 0.00268 → 0.00289. But ONE's market cap is only about $30 million, with trading volume around $11–15 million, so small funds can cause large fluctuations; the breakout may not be reliable.
3. Breaking below 0.00211
Short-term tends to continue probing 0.0018–0.00182. If this area also fails, it may retest the historical low region near 0.000536.
Three triggers affecting short-term price movements
● ERC-20 migration progress: Once contract address, snapshot time, and exchange switch announcements are clear, it can easily trigger a pulse-like surge.
● Exchange deposit and withdrawal status: If a major exchange suspends deposits/withdrawals or delists the trading pair, short-term weakness will occur quickly.
● BTC/ETH trends: ONE's correlation with BTC is about 0.83; if BTC or ETH pull back, ONE usually falls more.
Operation reminder
ONE is not a typical trend coin in the short term but an event-driven + low liquidity game. Price quotes vary greatly across exchanges, order book depth is thin, prone to slippage and false breakouts. If participating short-term, smaller positions and right-side confirmation before action are more suitable; breaking below $0.0018 should be regarded as a risk signal.