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Non-farm payrolls positive but the market weakens in the opposite direction! BTC and ETH remain stuck in the large 82000-87000 range ⚖️$BTC
Friday's non-farm data was clearly a strong positive, but the market did not rally to break previous highs as expected; market sentiment was not ignited at all, instead showing a profit-taking pullback after the good news.
Core logic: The market had already priced in and exhausted the non-farm positive during the day, completing the expected move! Coupled with the upcoming midterm elections, policies still likely include rate hikes, so the market will probably oscillate downward tonight.
Focus on $ETH capital flow, which is very informative 💡
Ethereum holdings surged by 200 million! Capital started positioning early at 8 AM, with high volume continuing at noon and 4 PM.
Even with pullbacks, the main players did not reduce positions. From candlesticks and capital distribution, a large amount of capital is concentrated opening positions at high levels to speculate.
Current price is 2748, at a relatively high level, with few sell orders above.
This is interesting: capital appears bullish at high levels, with many long positions clustered around 2670, and main cost range concentrated around 2750.
But capital does not expect a one-sided surge and has reserved room for error, essentially hiding a bearish expectation.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 🚨 THE COST OF WAITING FOR CHEAPER BITCOIN
Most people think waiting to buy $BTC costs nothing.
It doesn’t.
⏳ Waiting has an opportunity cost.
If Bitcoin’s long-term power-law trend continues, the longer you wait, the higher the trend price can move while you sit on the sidelines.
📈 The key idea:
You’re not only choosing an entry price.
You’re choosing where to enter on Bitcoin’s adoption curve.
Bitcoin can absolutely pull back.
#DailyOrbit $ETH at 2777.7: Between Chasing and Not Chasing
A sharp pull-up sent ETH to 2777.7, just 22.3 dollars shy of 2800. This level is awkward: below are recently discarded chips, above is a previous resistance zone, and short-term indicators also signal overheating. Early long positions have profit cushions, but latecomers chasing longs face the risk of "buying at the top."
If it were me, I wouldn’t chase at market price directly at 2777.7. There are three reasons: first, sharp rallies often have a pullback for confirmation, especially near round number levels; second, 2777.7 itself is a resistance area—if volume doesn’t support breaking through, it’s likely a false breakout; third, stop-loss placement is difficult—setting it at 2700 is too far, while 2750 is easily triggered.
More prudent approaches are twofold:
1. Wait for a pullback near 2700–2720, observe support and volume, and consider entry after stabilization;
2. Wait for a genuine breakout above 2800 and a pullback that holds, then follow the trend instead of gambling on the breakout.
Forecast: The probability of a short-term pullback to 2700 is slightly higher than a direct break above 2800. But if ETH gains volume to hold above 2780 and quickly breaks 2800, short covering could accelerate the move—don’t short against the trend then. The key is whether 2777.7 can turn from resistance into support.
Not chasing doesn’t mean bearish, just waiting for better odds. For discussion only, not investment advice.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Tell the dog trader, I'm not acting on impulse!
After a few days of its pullback, I knew there would be a rebound soon, so when $USELESS dropped to 0.249, I couldn't resist buying more. But it kept falling, and I couldn't hold on, so I ran.
After all, it can keep falling and has a lot of room to drop. If it were $BEAT or $ARB, it would be much better. Beat really struggles to fall below around 0.09 now, and arb is almost impossible to pull back below 0.15. That way, you can hold on and not have as much downside risk as with useless.$CORE official node exit = project team abandonment? Has true decentralization been achieved?
This seems more like a carefully planned "responsibility shift" rather than genuine decentralization.
According to the official statement on October 1, 2026, Core DAO is "gradually handing over the remaining block production roles to independent validators." The official describes this as "another step towards decentralization."
However, the actual effect of this "decentralization" process is:
$CORE Brothers, I really can't hold on anymore, I can't even gather the margin to open a position, can only watch helplessly as the market makers perform. BTC first: grinding between 83K-84K, heavy resistance at 85,600 above, last bottom line at 82,500 below. Funding slightly positive, long-short 51:49, typical range market. US Treasury yields still suppressing, ETFs being stingy. The longer sideways lasts, the more violent breakout will be, most likely first spike up to trigger shorts, then retrace tEthereum EIP-8363 Pulled From Hegota Upgrade
Ethereum developers have withdrawn EIP-8363, a proposal to burn a growing share of validator rewards as more ETH is staked, from consideration for the upcoming Hegota upgrade
Co-author Jérôme de Tychey said industry and core developer feedback showed that a fork-scoping process was not the right venue for an issuance policy change
The authors now plan a separate process with forums and workshops through EthCC in April, with Lido offering
#DailyOrbit Ordinary traders might try to short around BTC 87,000, betting on a daily double top pattern. If it breaks through, stop loss and exit; if not, continue to observe whether the top is confirmed.
But the market never only falls without rising. As reminded last night, the original downtrend might turn into a rebound. Coupled with non-farm payroll data below expectations, market expectations for the Fed's subsequent policies are also changing, making short-term volatility inevitable.
If the market makers rely solely on declines to harvest profits every day, how can the market continuously attract liquidity?
Trading is not about being right or wrong; controlling risk, seizing opportunities, and making profits are what matter. 😄
The above is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. #USNFPDataCools The jobs report didn't just miss. The revisions made it worse 👀
September added only 29K jobs vs ~85K expected, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. August and July were also revised down by a combined 60K.
What caught my attention is wages: just +0.1% MoM and +3.0% YoY.
That's cooling in both hiring and pay pressure. If inflation follows, the Fed's case for staying restrictive gets harder to defend. For BTC and gold, that puts liquidity back in focus.
#DailyOrbit 🚨 THE COST OF WAITING FOR CHEAPER BITCOIN
Most people think waiting to buy $BTC costs nothing.
It doesn’t.
⏳ Waiting has an opportunity cost.
If Bitcoin’s long-term power-law trend continues, the longer you wait, the higher the trend price can move while you sit on the sidelines.
📈 The key idea:
You’re not only choosing an entry price.
You’re choosing where to enter on Bitcoin’s adoption curve.
Bitcoin can absolutely pull back.
#DailyOrbit 🔥 After the non-farm surprise in the night session: BTC at 87000, HYPE breaks 90, but ENA is falling
#US September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
$BTC 86868, immediately pushed to the doorstep of 87000 after the non-farm data release. The 29,000 new jobs were far below expectations, reversing rate hike expectations overnight. BTC rose from 84000 to 87000 this week. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so 87000 will be decided on Monday; a pullback to 85500 is a buying opportunity.
$HYPE 90.848, up 3.92%, finally back above 90. It hovered around 87 for a week before the non-farm data, then surged directly after the release. With 97% of protocol revenue used for buybacks, holding above 90 targets 95. Don't sell or chase at this level; wait until after the weekend to see the direction.
$ASTER 0.7488, up 1.44%, relatively modest gain. A decentralized perpetual contract DEX; previously rose 8% and advised not to chase. Now pulling back near 0.75. As long as 0.72 holds, it's strong; holding above 0.8 targets 0.9.
$ENA 0.24654, down 1.19%, falling against the market which rose 3%. The 7% gains from a few days ago have been fully given back. The yield logic remains unchanged but funds are moving from altcoins to mainstream. If 0.25 breaks, look down to 0.23. Don't rush to bottom-fish over the weekend.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Night session highlights: BTC surges to 87000, HYPE holds above 90, ASTER pulls back, ENA falls against the trend—don't bottom-fish.Why did the price drop again after the data came out? Is it okay to buy the dip now? I think ETH is very cost-effective at this position. Is there hope? I really can't understand the market.
Previously, BTC dropped from 120,000 to 80,000, and those who bought the dip eight times in between ended up with an average cost higher than the bag holders. ETH and SOL are even more extreme; every rebound has people confirming the bottom.
Should buying the dip be done in batches, or all at once? Is it possible to buy the dip now? #USNFPDataCools The jobs report didn't just miss. The revisions made it worse 👀
September added only 29K jobs vs ~85K expected, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. August and July were also revised down by a combined 60K.
What caught my attention is wages: just +0.1% MoM and +3.0% YoY.
That's cooling in both hiring and pay pressure. If inflation follows, the Fed's case for staying restrictive gets harder to defend. For BTC and gold, that puts liquidity back in focus.🔥BTC dropped from 87239 straight down to 85336, this is not an ordinary small pullback; short-term sentiment has clearly changed!
📉 Although it has now rebounded to around 85511, the strength is not strong, and it has yet to hold above 86000, indicating that selling pressure above still exists.
👀 Next, I am only watching two levels: 86024 above and 85336 below.
⚠️ If 86024 cannot be reclaimed, bears still have room to operate; conversely, if 85336 is broken with a real body, this pullback is likely to continue expanding.
💰 Currently, my short position cost is 85554, with some floating profit, so I’m not in a hurry to act. The worst thing here is to panic close on a small rebound, and even worse to rush in to chase shorts when the price falls.
Do you think 85336 can become the real bottom tonight? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 I came across a real trading challenge post where someone turned 150u principal into 4000u, holding a short position on $RESOLV with an unrealized profit of 268%, also profiting from SAND and CT along the way. The phrase "The bears never surrender" shouted below made the whole post resonate.
I even checked the market price, currently at 0.02033, up 1.2% today, 6.3% in 7 days, and importantly, with increased volume—trading volume is 4.4 times the usual. This means their short position is making money despite the volume surge, and the position is still in the green—either the direction is held firmly, or the low leverage withstands the volatility.
But I don’t envy this kind of trade. If they shake their position by 1%, I might lose a month's salary. For these people, 268% unrealized profit and going to zero are just two ways of writing the same number.
This kind of scenario is good to just observe, don’t put yourself in it. If you do, it’s gambling, not trading. $CT The seemingly lively ETF data actually hides another story. Nine consecutive inflows have been cut off—have you noticed this detail? The start of October was far from smooth. BTC was tugging back and forth around 84K, and many people were excited watching the news of "2.4B weekly inflows," but they skipped the latest trading day's net outflow of about 148.7M—nine days of continuous net subscriptions ended on that day. What I care about more is not the number itself, but the timing of its appearance. One moment it's still making record moves, then it turns around, which shows that short-term capital isn't that patient. The ETF pipeline has recently been used as a thermometer for emotions; once inflows turn negative, the layer of "passive buying" below the price that supports the bottom is loosened a bit. The key level is clear: 84K is support, 85K to 86K is resistance above. A narrow range means direction selection may come quickly. The market is currently digesting several factors simultaneously: ETF subscription and redemption rhythm, US employment data, and Treasury yields. These three are like three ropes—whoever moves first will tilt risk appetite. Citi raised its 12-month target to 113K, citing on-chain activity, macro environment, and ETF channel—this is a bullish narrative anchor, but the target price is a slow variable. Short-term traders are really pricing in whether the next data will prove them wrong. Bullish path: If employment data is mild and yields fall, combined with ETFs turning positive, holding 84K gives a chance to test above 86K. Sentiment recovery will first benefit BTC and ETH, then gradually spill over to high BE🔥BTC surged to 87239 then suddenly plunged, with 85336 directly becoming the "lifeline" of this wave of the market!
📉 On the 1-minute chart, it dropped straight down from the high, hitting a low of 85336, then showed a slight rebound, now around 85511. Although my short position cost is 85554 and currently has a small floating profit, I really can't panic and run just because of a few rebounds.
⚠️ First watch 86024 above! As long as the price rebounds but fails to stay above 86000, the short-term bearish structure hasn't truly reversed.
🎯 Focus below on 85336; if this level holds, there's a chance for continued consolidation and recovery; once it breaks down effectively, the next round of decline may start immediately.
Brothers, do you think 85336 can hold? Or will it continue to crash down tonight? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Nonfarm payrolls surprise on the downside, why is the crypto market "calm" in response?
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, all data falling short of expectations. Normally, weak data should strengthen rate cut expectations, and risk assets should "rally." But the crypto market only showed a slight uptick: $BTC touched 87,000, $ETH climbed to 2,750, $SOL surged to 122 USD, with moderate gains far from a frenzy.
The reason is that poor data ≠ policy shift. US Treasury yields remain high, and the dollar has not weakened significantly, indicating the market is not betting on an immediate Fed pivot. Inflation stickiness and the Fed's cautious stance are obstacles before any "rate cut and easing." More importantly, capital enthusiasm is cooling—BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, with incremental funds absent, making the rebound naturally weak.
Nonfarm payrolls are just the prelude. For the crypto market to truly "rally," a clear easing signal from the Fed is needed, not just a single weak employment report. For now, holding steady is already good; a bull market return? It's still early.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 There are always some things that require courage. Seven
【Nine Yin Manual】
The Nine Yin Manual says: "The way of Heaven diminishes the excess and replenishes the deficiency." The way of contracts follows the same principle. Yin and Yang generate each other; rise and fall are interdependent. When Yang reaches its extreme, Yin arises; when Yin reaches its extreme, Yang begins. When everyone chases Yang, Yin is already lurking; when everyone fears Yin, Yang is already sprouting.
The true manual values the interplay of emptiness and substance, the strange and the correct. Emptiness is met with substance, substance with emptiness. The noisy places are often false moves; true meaning is hidden in silence. Do not cling to rise or fall, do not be stuck on Yin or Yang, flow like water following the trend, like a breeze passing over a hill.
It also says that firmness and softness complement each other. Softness is not weakness, but compliance; firmness is not strength, but decisiveness. Before the momentum arrives, be still like a virgin, storing the energy of the Nine Yin; when the momentum comes, move like a startled rabbit, unleashing a thunderous strike. But do not go to extremes; extremes will backfire.
Those who resonate breathe in sync with Heaven and Earth. With a heart free of greed and fear, one can hear the soundless; with an unburdened mind, one can sense the unmoved changes. The Nine Yin is not ultimate Yin, but the unity of Yin and Yang. Contracts are not about winning, but about harmonizing with the Way. By preserving softness, knowing when to stop, and adapting to change, one achieves longevity.💰 Deposit to see returns, withdraw to see the real skill meow~
This time, I'm more focused on redemption for $RE meow. The affiliated reUSDe has opened the application window for October, but it's not that clicking once will get all the funds immediately. The quota for this round is 1.5 million USD; if oversubscribed, it will be handled proportionally. Distribution starts from October 15, and the assets received will be sUSDe. The reinsurance funds have their own turnover rhythm and cannot be understood as demand deposits. For governance tokens, I will compare actual payouts alongside deposit growth. Attracting funds is one thing, but completing exits according to the rules is what helps build long-term trust.
The new news about $SOL is closer to everyday business meow. On September 30, the Open USD stablecoin was launched, allowing enterprises to mint and redeem one-to-one with USD, with no fees for this step. The easier the payment and settlement, the more reason enterprises have to move their processes over. But an increase in stablecoin scale does not mean the same amount of money will buy native tokens. I care more about whether transfers continue to happen rather than how big the issuance number is on day one.
$WLD's performance tonight is more active than in the evening meow. Near 11 PM, it was reported at 0.567, up about 14.3% in 24 hours, and about 4.8% in the past week. However, a stronger price still doesn't explain where the new demand comes from. I distinguish between short-term hype brought by news and actual usage growth. If no corresponding new progress is found for now, I just admit the price is strengthening and won't force a positive story on it meow.$PONS ✨️ 📝Personal live trading record Total assets yesterday: 23520 Withdrawal transfer out: 2500, remaining principal 21020 Today's close: 23198 Account net value slightly rebounded, intraday market fluctuated repeatedly, after a dip most of the gains were recovered.【10U Challenge 1BTC】Day 3 | Non-farm liquidation night, back to square one in a day, net value returns to the starting point!
【Challenge Board】
🏁 Starting Capital: 10.00 U
🎯 Challenge Goal: 1 BTC (currently about 84,000U)
💰 Current Net Value: 10.08 U (Today's P&L: -3.36U / -17.29%)
🧊 Available Funds: 10.08 U
🛡️ Survival Cost: 0.50 U
【Today's Operations】
Non-farm data released, market fluctuated violently, suffered two big losses today:
Short BTC: Non-farm news suddenly turned bullish, BTC surged violently, short positions were directly liquidated, heavy losses.
Short SNDK: Operational mistake, SNDK rose instead of falling, short position stopped out.
Yesterday's 19U profit was completely given back today, net value dropped from 19U to 10.08U, almost back to square one.
【Current Positions】
No positions (all closed)
【Review and Thoughts】
The biggest lesson today: don't gamble on news-driven markets. When heavy data like non-farm is released, market direction is highly random; shorting against the trend is suicide. Coupled with the mistake on SNDK, it shows emotional management issues, too eager to short.
Market closed Saturday and Sunday, will stay calm and not trade.
Plan to reset the pace next week, start again with 10U, no rush, no impatience. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
$BTC $SNDK $ETH Nonfarm payrolls released, September added only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Employment is indeed cooling down, but does this mean the Fed will immediately open the rate cut channel? 🤔
Not necessarily. Rate cut trades still depend on inflation stickiness, financial conditions, and policy wording. Currently, US Treasury yields remain high, the dollar hasn't weakened significantly, and the market hasn't fully bet on "weak jobs = immediate easing."
Crypto first gave a sentiment rebound. $BTC returned above $86,000, briefly approaching $87,000 after the data; $ETH rose from 2600 to around 2750, just breaking through the late September consolidation; $SOL bounced to around 122, up 3%–4% in 24 hours, still the most resilient. 😄
But the market heat can't be called boiling: spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, incremental funds haven't returned. Interest rates and the dollar still weigh on valuations. This wave looks more like a repair after bad news landing, not a bull market confirmation. Don't decide everything by one nonfarm payroll candle.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Regarding $SNDKB, I’d rather first ask a somewhat uncomfortable question: Are we currently seeing a trend, or a trend that has already been priced in prematurely?
The current 1-hour volume is only 0.27 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars; both the 1-hour and 4-hour volumes are weak. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support usually requires confirmation from the next candlestick.
The current price is 1,725, about 0.57% away from the 1-hour support at 1,715.2, and about 4.73% away from resistance at 1,806.55. Looking at both distances together gives a more realistic risk perspective than focusing on just one rising or falling candlestick.
$SNDKB price is moving, but volume hasn’t confirmed it, which is more noteworthy than the 24-hour -2.84% change.
My conclusion is temporarily expressed only as conditional statements. My observation line is clear: only by reclaiming and holding above 1,806.55 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 1,715.2, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 1,686.54. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 1,806.55 is just a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
Do you trust the current direction more, or do you think the low volume will cause this move to be quickly reversed?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.I’m watching $BTC on the 1D chart around $84.8K. Price is holding above the MA5 and MA10, while the MA20 sits near $82.1K, keeping the broader structure constructive. I’d like to see a clean reclaim of $86K, with $87.4K as the key resistance. If support around $84K fails, I’d watch $82K next. For now, I’m waiting for confirmation before taking a position and avoiding chasing. Currently, $BTC still acts more like the market's "liquidity barometer." Whether funds continue to flow back into BTC will directly affect the risk appetite of the entire crypto market. $ETH needs to further prove whether it can continuously attract new funds, especially around the $2.7K level, where price performance and capital flow remain worth watching. $SOL is more sensitive to market Risk-on sentiment; once funds start to spread from BTC to high-volatility assets, SOL may more easily experience amplified moves, but pullbacks could also happen faster. As for $XRP, its trend is influenced not only by the overall market but also more easily affected by ETF fund flows, market supply, and changes in capital structure. Therefore, BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP do not follow the same trading logic, and other altcoins cannot be treated uniformly. 🎯 What’s more important now is not blindly chasing gains but preparing a trading plan in advance: • Clearly define Entry before entering • Set Stop Loss in advance • Control position size per trade and overall Allocation • Protect profits in batches after reaching targets • Prioritize risk management when the market weakens, rather than fantasizing about unlimited upside The real market opportunities often come from capital rotation and structural confirmation, not FOMO. Confirmation > Prediction Risk control > Greed Protecting profits > Chasing the last leg of the rally #BTC #ETH #SOL #XRP #CrCan't keep rising! Really can't keep rising!!
Get ready for a big correction soon!!
It has already risen so much, it probably won't go up anymore
Earlier, each pump was like money was no object
$SAND surged straight up from around 0.032
Today it even touched a high of 0.0712!!
This wave more than doubled!!
Now the price is around 0.0646
At the high level, it's already clearly fluctuating back and forth
The previous rhythm of blindly charging upwards
Is finally starting to change!!
Looking at $WLD
Today it’s +12.51% again!!
Price directly hit 0.5689
Highest at 0.5889!!
7-day +14.85%
30-day even +55.30%!!
The daily chart is steadily pushing up along the moving averages
The bulls have really gone crazy recently!!
But the more it’s like this
The more cautious I feel!!
It can’t be big green candles every day
And not every coin can keep pumping like this!!
$ZEC is even more obvious!!
It surged from around 451 to 1695.5 earlier
Now it’s back down near 1354!!
7-day down -12.89%
And the price is now below
MA5, MA10, and MA20!!
How crazy the rise was before
The correction at the high is just as fierce!!
The most ridiculous is my BTC short position!!
Entry average price 74958
Now the mark price is around 84980
50x full position!!
Floating loss directly hits
-67144U!!
Return rate -668.47%!!
This is no small pullback
This is a manipulator riding on my face outputting!!
But after looking at this whole market
My feeling is still the same——
The earlier pump was really too strong!!
$SAND and $WLD are starting to accelerate
$ZEC has already led the way down from the high
At this point, if I chase the rise again
I really can’t bring myself to do it!!
Now it depends on the high-level funds
Whether they can still force the price up!!
Once the collective rally fails next
The high-level profit-taking will start to run out
The correction speed might be even faster than the rise!!
Especially $SAND’s 0.0712
$WLD’s 0.5889
I’m watching these two highs closely!!
If they break through and hold steady
It means the bulls aren’t done yet!!
If they can’t break through and fall back down
Then be really careful
This big correction might suddenly crash down!!
Earlier, each pump was like money was no object!!
Now it’s time to see
Who is really standing on the mountain top in the end!!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Bitcoin mining difficulty fell just 6.7% this year while BTC price dropped 30.2%, leaving a 23.5-point gap that shows miners held firm as price collapsed.Market Analysis: The bullish tone remains, but don't underestimate the unexpected impact of the non-farm payrolls
BTC and ETH are gradually rising with healthy patterns, so the bias is towards a bullish approach. All short positions on BTC have been closed, leaving only one short position on ETH to observe. This cautious approach is very steady.
The real constraint in the market is not the ETF fund inflows and outflows, but the core pressure from high interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, continuously suppressing risk asset valuations. This macroeconomic logic won't disappear due to a short-term rebound. Tonight's non-farm payrolls are a short-term watershed: if the data weakens, the market will likely pause rate hikes, which is positive for crypto prices; if the data significantly exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations for the year will heat up again, and the market may quickly drop.
Although PCE inflation cooling might lead to expectations of positive non-farm data, the data often diverges from leading indicators. The biggest risk now is prematurely betting on positive outcomes. It's best not to open new positions before the news is released, control your trades, wait for confirmation signals from the market, and avoid heavy speculative bets in advance.
However, note this: even if the data meets positive expectations, there could be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" spike and drop; even if the data is negative, there might be an initial dip to shake out weak hands before a rebound. In a volatile market, the first wave of reaction to data is often a trap, so don't chase the market immediately after the data release.
$BTC $ETH The latest US nonfarm payroll data for September was significantly below expectations, with the labor market cooling faster than the market had previously anticipated. This has also clearly cooled market expectations for further rate hikes in October. After US Treasury yields fell, risk assets received some support, and ETH has also reached a key technical area. 📊 US Employment Data 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls Added: +29,000 📉 Market Expectation: +90,000 📊 Unemployment Rate: 4.2% 🔄 August Revised: +133,000 📉 Combined July and August employment data revised down by about 60,000 Wage growth has also slowed, further reinforcing the market interpretation that the "job market is cooling." 🔥 ETH Key Price Areas 🔴 Resistance: $2,800–$2,850 If ETH can break through this area with volume and hold above it, the market may further focus on the upside potential. 🟢 Support: $2,650–$2,600 As long as this area holds, the short-term recovery structure may still be maintained. ⚠️ Critical Defense: $2,520 If there is a clear break below this, short-term selling pressure may expand again. 📈 Three possible trends to watch next 🟢 Bullish Scenario Weak employment data → cooling rate hike expectations → yield decline → risk assets supported. If ETH also breaks through resistance near $2,800, it may attract more capital attention. 🔴 Bearish Scenario If inflation becomes the market focus again, or US Treasury yields rise again, then the weak employment data leads$ZRO closed below the reference low point, first looking for continuation
ZRO has closed below the previous low point, so the short-term cycle is initially expected to continue downward. The recent high and low points in the past few hours were 2.0037 / 1.927 USDT, and the just-closed 5-minute candlestick was at 1.9165 USDT.
However, the recent 15-minute volume has not significantly increased, indicating that the current breakdown lacks active support, so the strength is questionable.
If it continues to decline with rising volume later, this judgment will be more confident; if the close returns above the reference low point, the idea of downward continuation should be put on hold for now. Nonfarm Night BTC Strategy: Wait First, Then Act
Before 20:30, BTC is oscillating between 84,300 and 85,200, so it's best to wait and see. The 1-hour chart still shows narrow consolidation; the sell wall at 85,000–85,500 has doubled since September 24, forming strong resistance; 84,000 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears.
After the data release:
· Break through 85,200 with volume and hold above it, lightly go long; stop loss below 84,000, target 85,800–86,000, then look at 86,500.
· Break below 84,000 and rebound is weak, lightly go short; stop loss above 85,500, target 83,500, then look at 82,500.
Tonight's nonfarm expectation is an increase of 84,000–90,000, previous value 162,000, with a wide range and very high uncertainty. The data will directly affect the Fed's October rate hike expectations (probability about 25%). On the funding side, BTC ETF inflows have continued for 9 consecutive days, while ETH has turned to outflows. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Official node exit ≠ project abandonment. But is Core DAO truly decentralized?
Core DAO says it is shifting block production to independent validators as a step toward decentralization.
But key questions remain:
🔹 Operational responsibility is moving to independent validators.
🔹 Network security depends on sufficient validator participation.
🔹 Governance and decision-making may remain concentrated.
#DailyOrbit Challenge: 15K U | Day 32
Principal: 40U → Current: 142U 🚀
🔥 CT: New launch saw heavy volatility; $0.40 is key support.
💎 BNB: Strong trend above major MAs, but crowded longs increase downside risk. Watch $765–754.
🚀 AAVE: +13% today, driven by V4 growth, buybacks and strong on-chain activity.
Crypto is moving fast—manage risk, don’t chase.
#DailyOrbit $BTC — 87,000 after the jobs report showed only 29,000 jobs added vs. 89,000 expected. This sent Fed hold odds for October surging to 71.8%. The $85K sell wall was fully absorbed.
· 2,750: Firmer on the day but still trailing BTC. Spot ETH ETFs saw $110M in outflows from Tuesday to Thursday.
· 122: Rose alongside majors but didn't keep pace with BTC.
· 1.48: Also up but lagging the leaders.
#DailyOrbit 🔥BTC and ETH are making a strong rebound, but I'm starting to focus on a warning sign: overbought!
📈 The nonfarm payrolls surprised on the downside, the market is betting again on rate cuts, and risk assets are receiving strong stimulus. BTC and ETH quickly broke through the consolidation zone, with open interest significantly expanding, and shorts being continuously squeezed.
The biggest feature of this kind of market is — the faster the rise, the more uncomfortable the shorts; the more shorts stop out, the more excited the longs get.
⚠️ But problems are also emerging.
KDJ has rapidly entered the high zone, and short-term momentum is clearly overextended. At this point, chasing with full positions on another big bullish candle can easily turn into taking over profits from earlier holders.
📌 One nonfarm report can change short-term sentiment, but it cannot instantly change the entire high interest rate environment.
So I prefer to wait.
Wait for the short squeeze sentiment to release, wait for the price to pull back, wait for support to be reconfirmed, then decide the next step.
🔥 The real big opportunity doesn’t necessarily happen in the most frenzied minute.
Are you ready to keep chasing this wave, or wait for a pullback? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Opened a short position and ready to sleep!!
The whales really pushed hard today!!
$SAND is clearly starting to lose momentum!!
I went all in on shorts!!
Now $SAND has dropped from the high of 0.0712
back to around 0.064
Several consecutive 1-hour candles surged then fell back
The previous crazy upward push
is obviously weakening!!
So I took action!!
The full position short on $SAND is already opened!!
15x leverage
Opening average price 0.0641
Current mark price around 0.0642
Holding 1.16 million SAND
Margin 4970U
Current floating profit about 580U
+11.70%!!
The most critical part is
the estimated liquidation price is around 0.0654
very close to the current price
This trade basically has very little room for error!!
Whales, better not suddenly freak out in the middle of the night
or I might wake up
and find my position gone!!
Looking at $CT
Yesterday it also surged crazily from around 0.34
peaked at 0.6365
and now?
Directly dropped back to 0.5248!!
After a heavy sell-off at the high
the rebound hasn't even reclaimed MA10 or MA20
Those who chased the rally
are probably starting to question their decisions!!
$ZEC is the same
Peaked at 1695.5
now around 1363
Down -12.33% in 7 days
Daily price is below MA5, MA10, and MA20
When it was rising
everyone thought it could keep flying
But once the correction started
they realized holding at the top is really painful!!
So looking at $SAND now
I have one thought
You did push hard earlier
but since 0.0712 wasn't broken through directly
and now it's grinding around 0.064 again
let's see if you still have the strength for another round!!
Short position is already opened!!
Time to sleep!!
Either wake up tomorrow to feast
or get carried away by the whales in the middle of the night!!
In this kind of high volatility market
the worst is not being wrong
but thinking you're definitely right with high leverage!!
Tonight, just watch one level——
The previous high at 0.0712!!
As long as it breaks above that strongly again
then the "can't push higher" logic needs to be reconsidered
But if it stays below that previous high
and breaks below around 0.060
then I want to see
who among those who chased in today
will run first!!
$SAND
Stop grinding!!
If you're going to drop, drop decisively!!
Short position is already opened
I'll check the results tomorrow morning!!
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% 34 promised $CORE nodes, now reportedly only 20 remain.
With $CORE down sharply and confidence among users and node operators weakening, the team’s “decentralization” plan is facing serious questions.
If nodes keep leaving while new ones don’t join, is this really decentralization—or simply a shift of responsibility?
The community deserves clear answers.
#DailyOrbit 🔥The most intense short squeeze rallies are often the easiest to get carried away with.
📉Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and employment data clearly cooled down. The market immediately re-priced rate cut expectations, with BTC and ETH launching a direct counterattack.
🚀Price breaking out of the consolidation zone is just the first layer; what's more exciting is the position structure: shorts are forced to stop loss and close positions, creating continuous buying pressure that further amplifies this rally.
But now I want to remind you:
🧨**Short squeeze ≠ unlimited upside.**
After a sharp rise, the KDJ indicator has entered a high overbought zone, and short-term pullback pressure is increasing. The macro environment hasn't completely turned around just because of one nonfarm report; the suppression from high interest rates still needs to be monitored.
💰So my strategy won't be to chase after a big bullish candle, but to wait for the market to fully release its emotions.
A pullback that doesn't break support is worth watching; if support fails, it's time to reassess.
The market's biggest taboo isn't missing a candle, but losing your position and discipline chasing one.
Do you think this pullback will come, or will it continue to surge directly? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC - Will M top form? Predicted M top on 25th last month. Until break below 82.8K, M top thesis valid. Probability increasing. Daily reversed bullish, so drop = pullback. Daily volume low, 4H volume weak. But MACD daily golden cross. Next 3 days: BTC will push up. New high (blue line) or lower high (red line) - unpredictable. If top day = volume surge + fast drop + daily bearish engulfing, then SHORT.#USNFPDataCools #USTreasuryYieldsSurge #BTCETHETFOutflows $BTC Money doesn't flood in all four at once; it comes in order.
$BTC stabilizes first, then the market has a base; $ETH dares to follow; $SOL is volatile and surges fiercely; $XRP just runs alongside. The order isn't a guess: money first seeks the least volatile, waits for it to stop falling, then moves to the more elastic.
A common mistake: fast rise ≠ more money inflow. The same amount of money pushes smaller caps higher. SOL's sharp rise doesn't mean the most inflow, just that its market cap is light.
Market makers watch where money flows out and in; retail investors only see all four rising. Do you focus on price gains or on capital flow?
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling capital heat
#Strategy repurchases BTC, multiple financial institutions increase holdings simultaneously
#October rate hike expectations fall back, tonight's PCE is key
$BTC $ETH🔥A dismal non-farm payroll report, so why did it instead fuel a BTC surge?
📊 The answer is simple: the market is trading not on "worsening employment," but on "renewed expectations of rate cuts."
Non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, clearly weak data. After pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields, risk assets quickly caught a breather.
⚡ Then BTC and ETH surged with volume, and shorts began to collectively retreat. Stop-loss and liquidation orders continuously converted into buy orders, pushing prices higher and accelerating the short squeeze.
But 🚨 the sharper the rally, the more you need to guard against emotional exhaustion.
KDJ has already entered the high overbought zone, increasing the risk of chasing gains in the short term.
🎯 So now it’s not about who dares to chase, but who can wait.
Wait for pullbacks, watch for support, wait for confirmation. Truly strong rallies usually don’t end because of a single correction.
Are you more worried about missing out or chasing at the top? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 🚨 MACRO DATA JUST LIT UP THE CRYPTO MARKET! 🔥
BTC surged to $86,764 while ETH rushed to $2,753 as the latest economic data triggered a sharp market reaction.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls: 29K vs 90K expected
📉 Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
💵 Average Hourly Earnings: 3.0%
The weaker-than-expected jobs data has intensified rate-cut expectations, sending fresh capital into BTC and ETH.
The “data landing = offensive” scenario is playing out.
But here’s the key:
#DailyOrbit 🔥The worse the non-farm payrolls, the crazier Bitcoin gets? This market move has completely played out the "bad news = good news" scenario!
📉September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below market expectations, with the previous two months' data revised downward and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. After the cooling of employment, the market has resumed trading on rate cut expectations.
🚀BTC and ETH then suddenly accelerated, breaking through the previous consolidation zone directly. Positions changed rapidly, with short stops and liquidations happening one after another, which in turn became new buying pressure. This typical short squeeze rally is accelerating more and more.
⚠️But don’t just look at the gains here.
KDJ has already surged to a high level, and short-term sentiment is clearly overheated. Macro positives can ignite the market, but that doesn’t mean prices will keep rising in a straight line.
🧠My thinking: don’t chase the top; wait for the first round of sentiment release and see if the pullback finds support.
Do you think this is an acceleration before the main rise, or the first round of cooling after the short squeeze ends? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 US jobs miss across the board:
• NFP: 29K vs 90K expected
• Unemployment: 4.2% vs 4.1%
• Wages: 3.0% vs 3.2%
Fed hike odds for October dropped to 17%. $BTC spiked to $87K.
Weak data = bullish for risk assets.
$BTC Nonfarm payrolls disappoint, so why isn't the crypto market celebrating?
September employment increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with unemployment rising to 4.2%. Normally, weak data would ignite rate cut speculation, but the market didn't rush to pop the champagne. The reason is simple: U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the dollar hasn't retreated, and the shadow of inflation combined with the Fed's cautious stance has dampened "liquidity easing" expectations.
Crypto prices reacted more like probing moves. BTC started above $86,000, touched $87,000 after the data, up two to three percent intraday; ETH rose from 2600 to 2750, breaking out of the late September consolidation zone but with limited momentum; SOL bounced to around 122, gaining 3%–4% in 24 hours, becoming a short-term highlight. Prices rose, but volume and coordinated strength were lacking. The ETF side is even clearer: BTC and ETH spot products saw simultaneous net outflows, indicating incremental funds are still cautious. To confirm a trend reversal, one nonfarm report isn't enough; we need to see if the Fed truly turns dovish.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Key levels for $ETH: 2695 and ISM 56
The 50-month moving average for ETH currently sits around 2695, with the price exactly hugging this long-term support. For bulls, this is a crucial defensive line: as long as the monthly line does not break down effectively, the overall structure remains intact, and the long-term trend is not broken.
From a macro perspective, look at the ISM. The latest reading is 54.5, slightly lower than the previous value but still in the expansion zone, indicating that manufacturing is still growing, though momentum has slowed. To break above 56 from 54.5, the economic activity needs to accelerate again, which may take several months rather than happening in the short term.
Historically, ISM has broken above 56 twice, after which ETH experienced explosive rallies. This provides a macro and crypto linkage sample worth watching. But history does not simply repeat itself. Breaking 56 on the ISM is only one condition; liquidity, risk appetite, and on-chain demand must also align. The timing alone does not guarantee the market will automatically start.
Therefore, currently focus on two points: first, whether ETH can hold the 50-month moving average near 2695; second, whether the ISM can move from expansion to stronger expansion and break above 56. The former determines if the structure remains intact, while the latter could bring greater upward momentum. The resonance of both is a more reliable signal; otherwise, support and historical patterns are only references, not guarantees. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 "Nonfarm Night: Headcount Cooling, Wages Set to Surprise"
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are expected to add 90,000 jobs. Reuters forecasts 90,000, Dow Jones 84,000, and ADP also 90,000. Last month was 162,000. I lean toward a cooling in employment this time, but not a sharp slowdown yet. The key is that the decline itself is not necessarily positive because the market has already been anticipating a slowdown.
To fuel a rebound in BTC and ETH, just meeting the headcount expectations is not enough. We need to look at wages: if hourly wages month-over-month drop to 0.2% and the unemployment rate holds steady at 4.1%, I would be more bullish. When employment meets expectations, wages are the source of surprise tonight.
If nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, especially with accelerating wages, the expectation for rate hikes will return, making it harder for BTC and ETH to rebound. If the data is weaker and wages moderate, the probability of no rate hike in October rises, giving risk assets room to recover.
Don't jump the gun before nonfarm; wait for the triple confirmation: headcount, unemployment rate, and hourly wages. Keep some flexibility in your positions; don't mistake a spike for a trend.
#SeptemberNonfarmReleasedTonight, rate hike expectations are the focus $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Bitcoin's rally is flow-driven, not leverage-driven — funding rates sit at just 5.4% annualized, suggesting spot buying rather than speculative froth. The divergence from gold (which fell 8.5% in September while BTC rallied 12%) suggests this isn't a simple "debasement trade."
The immediate catalyst was the soft jobs data, but the structural driver is the SEC's innovation exemption issued Sept 17 the first genuine regulatory catalyst since the CLARITY Act failed.
#DailyOrbit #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The nonfarm payroll data is hard to summarize in a few words. On the surface, it looks positive, but the result was a heavy blow to $BTC, directly causing a sharp drop.
Looking at the data, all four indicators are disappointing; the labor market is truly cooling down. For BTC, this set of data is a solid positive, as it will further reduce expectations for interest rate hikes.
However, the poor employment data may also trigger recession fears. If the US stock market plunges, BTC will be dragged down in the short term, and there is an even more direct reason.
The market had already anticipated this positive news in advance, so it had already surged upward before. This drop mainly happened because the data wasn't as good as expected, causing the market to interpret the positive news as negative.
$ETH $ZEC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解