Orbit Post Sitemap
Santiment released data during the day showing 30,000 Bitcoin wallets exiting. I usually glance over such obscure indicators, but this time I paused for two extra seconds.
Because on the same side, there's another data point: two whales dormant for three years deposited 2,571 BTC into Coinbase Prime, worth just over 200 million at current prices. Retail wallets are emptying out, while old money is moving to exchanges.
On-chain analysts say wallet exits are a bottom signal, while the dump camp says whales moving to exchanges means they're cashing out. Both sides sound reasonable, but I don't fully trust either.
I only focus on one spot. BTC is now at 79,900, with a 24-hour low near 79,450, grinding just below 80,000. Some have even pointed to the 85,000 high as a warning of a death loop.
I treat on-chain signals at this level as noise. Whether the 80,000 line can be reclaimed is the key. If it can, those 2,000-plus whale coins are just a drop in the bucket; if not, it doesn't matter how many bags you hold.
At this level, I neither add shorts nor rush to buy; let both sides battle it out first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 After the market closed on October 29, Amazon released its Q3 earnings report. I am optimistic about the operating data in this report, and the logic is: AWS continues to accelerate. The market now needs to judge how quickly the money Amazon spends can be converted into revenue, and beyond the leading large model companies, how many customers are continuously expanding their consumption. My baseline judgment is that Q3 revenue is about $203.5 billion, operating profit about $27 billion, and AWS growth rate around 40%. Such results are quite good from an operational perspective, but given current expectations, we still need to look at the Q4 guidance and next year's investment plans. Let's talk specifics: 1. First, calibrate expectations; there is an easily overlooked reason for the slowdown in revenue growth. Currently, the public market expects Amazon's Q3 revenue to be about $202.2 billion, with EPS around $1.96. The company previously gave a revenue guidance of $197 billion to $202 billion, and the market is already waiting for it to reach or slightly exceed the upper limit of the guidance. There is a calendar factor here: this year's main market Prime Day was moved up to Q2, while last year it was in Q3. The company clearly stated that excluding the impact of Prime Day over the two years, this quarter's revenue year-over-year growth would be nearly 4 percentage points higher, with exchange rates dragging about 0.8 percentage points. So, seeing the group's revenue growth drop from 20% in Q2 to about 12% expected in Q3, don't rush to conclude that U.S. consumption is weak. Some sales and advertising budgets have already been spent in June. For a company of Amazon's scale, revenue exceeding expectations by a few billion dollars is not unusual.Legislative stagnation, administrative frenzy! U.S. regulators strike on three fronts, has Washington finally bowed to crypto? Brothers, don’t just focus on the CLARITY Act stuck in the Senate; the real explosive news is at the administrative level! Just this Monday, U.S. regulators, without any congressional legislative guidance, simultaneously launched efforts from three directions to frantically build crypto infrastructure. This is definitely a historic turning point for the industry. Experts break down how fierce these "three-pronged attacks" really are: First front: OCC encourages community banks to issue stablecoins. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency directly called on small banks to study issuing their own "digital dollars," setting a new regulation implementation deadline of January 18, 2027. This shows the government has fully recognized reality, no longer rejecting stablecoins but aiming to bring issuance rights back under the regulated traditional banking system. Second front: Crypto giants obtain federal trust charters. Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity, and Paxos secured conditional approvals by the end of last year, officially becoming national trust banks. Although they cannot take deposits and make loans like regular banks, this means they can legally and compliantly custody client assets. Crypto giants have officially put on suits and entered traditional finance. Third front: CFTC builds a registration channel for crypto exchanges. CFTC Chair Selig clearly stated that since Congress is not acting, they will create an "optional" federal registration channel themselves. Even more explosive, Kraken’s parent company Payward plans to become the first entity to be CFTThe co-CEO of Coinbase's institutional business boldly stated that the second wave of institutional funds is entering Bitcoin. My first reaction was here we go again. This has been said from last year to this year, and every time it's said, the price dips first.
Currently BTC is at 80289, with a 24-hour low of 79377, truly breaking below 80,000. On OKX, BTC perpetual positions still hold $2.56 billion, volume hasn't decreased. The money is in the market, but the price can't be pushed up; I generally interpret this combination as someone quietly selling above 80,000.
Moody's also listed a crypto market crash as one of the most likely economic shocks in the next 18 months, with the bullish and bearish news coming less than two hours apart. When the news conflicts, I trust neither and only look at positions and price.
At this point, I neither add longs nor open shorts; I'll wait until 83,000 holds for a week before deciding.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 ETH/SOL/ZEC: Three Pricing Types
$ETH 2318, down less than 1%, leading with $41.86 million liquidations; exchange net outflow of 169,000 coins, hitting a nearly four-month peak, ETH ETF net withdrawals exceeded $1.2 billion in October and for four consecutive weeks. Support above 2330 is weak, the launch of Hoodi testnet does not equate to incremental capital returning, consensus on weakness is unanimous, rebound may still rank last.
$SOL 100.97, down 0.34%, lowest liquidation at $4.98 million; spot net inflow of $5.84 million, with Firedancer and Alpenglow providing themes, but ETF net outflow for three weeks and over $72 million in recent months. 100.50–100.80 is the short-term defense line, trend is relatively stable but slow, marginal buying is insufficient.
$ZEC 1209.76, up 1.6%, the only green chart; liquidations at $5.07 million, market cap only about one-third of SOL, highest leverage crowding; positive fee rate means longs pay to hold positions. NU7, halving, and privacy narratives overlap, strongest resilience but also most fragile in drawdowns.
Ranking: Strength ZEC > SOL > ETH; Support SOL > ZEC > ETH; Leverage fragility ZEC > ETH > SOL.
Watch: Whether ETH ETF withdrawals converge, whether ZEC positive fee rate reverses. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 The Federal Reserve's meeting results will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.
Most likely no change. The current federal funds rate is between 3.75% and 4.00%, and on September 16, it was unanimously raised by 25 basis points. The market pricing for another hike in October was 65% in late September but dropped to below 15% after the speech on October 16.
So the focus this time is on the wording and voting dissent.
There are three key points to watch. Whether the statement will use tougher language to describe inflation; whether any members vote against, as three votes clearly supported a rate hike in the July meeting; and whether the press conference will leave the door open for December.
The meeting on December 8-9 will include the dot plot, and the direction will be seen then.
There is also a timing factor. When the decision is announced, there will be only 6 days left until the November 3 midterm elections. The Fed usually prefers not to make moves at such times. $BTC #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Demand narrative is shifting from "training" to "inference," with the short-term fundamentals being nearly flawless; however, the market is already pricing in two things in advance — the possibility of NAND supply and demand turning loose by 2027, and the sustainability of current profit levels in a cyclical sense. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Leverage positions remain, but liquidations are light: Is this the "calm before the storm" for the DOGE market?
The derivatives market for Dogecoin is unusually quiet at the moment. Open interest holds steady around $215 million, and leverage positions remain substantial; however, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidations on both long and short sides have amounted to less than $50,000. Despite the clear presence of leverage, large-scale liquidations have not occurred.
This stark contrast reveals two key facts. First, the overall leverage ratio of DOGE positions is currently not high. Liquidations typically concentrate on high-leverage positions, and a mere $50,000 in liquidations indicates that the vast majority of holders have relatively sufficient margin and strong risk resistance. Second, the narrow price fluctuations have not created conditions for forced liquidations. Liquidations require prices to quickly hit liquidation thresholds, but the current daily volatility of only 2.4% is insufficient to trigger most positions.
This calm is a double-edged sword for the market. The benefit is that without cascading liquidations causing liquidity shortages, prices can find support within a relatively rational range, avoiding irrational panic selling. However, the risk is also present: the large open interest acts like the sword of Damocles hanging overhead. Once the market experiences a breakthrough in a one-sided move, these poised leveraged funds can easily trigger intense chain reactions.
DOGE is currently in a delicate balance, with both bulls and bears waiting for a clear signal. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC so many big wallets waking up is not a good thing, think about why 58,000 didn't wake up until now.$IRYS IRYS这盘口真给我看乐了。
一天倒手7600万美金，底下的资金池居然只有150万。
换手看着热闹得不行，实际上薄得像张纸，全是做市商在自娱自乐。
就这深度，稍微来点抛压就能直接砸穿底牌。
关键下个月还有更大规模的团队跟机构解锁落地。
你以为自己在抄底，其实人家急着把手里的货往你嘴里塞。
少看热闹，这盘面谁接谁上当。
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇90% of people bet correctly on no rate hike, so what?
The Federal Reserve will announce the result at 2 a.m. Thursday. Interest rate futures pricing shows the probability of no change is already over 90%, compared to only 50% two weeks ago. In other words, the market has long finished trading the phrase "no rate hike."
When a positive outcome is known to everyone, even retail investors have already fully bet on it in advance, how much buying power will be left on the actual day?
Moreover, tonight's data leaves no room for the dovish camp. Durable goods orders rose 1.8%, the strongest in five months; consumer confidence is 91.7, while expectations were only 81; the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.997. With the economy so resilient, there is no reason for Powell to back down on Thursday. If he even mentions a rate hike in December, the current pricing will have to be reshuffled.
$BTC is hovering above 80,000, having touched 79,300 during the day; the 80,500 to 81,000 range was broken early. Every time it pulls back to 80,000 these days, it is unlocking trapped positions above, making you feel it can't fall further. If the 78,500 to 79,000 support fails, the next level is above 76,000.
$ETH is weaker, moving sideways between 2,310 and 2,335, with over 10 million short positions pressing down at 2,346. The real test is the support line at 2,246 and 2,235; if it breaks 2,240, it will head to 2,200.
High interest rates still hang between 3.75 and 4.0, money is not cheap. If it bounces higher from here, first think about reducing positions, not chasing.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Late night market watch: This 15-minute level rebound of XAUT really has some substance.📈
The core logic remains the triple resonance of "oil drop + bottom fishing + Fed game." The oil price pullback eased inflation worries, the 4000 level attracted a batch of dip buyers, and with short covering before the Fed meeting, bulls launched a direct counterattack.
However, looking at the resistance zone of 4050-4100 above, how long this big bullish candle can hold still needs to be observed. After all, the real test will be Wednesday's decision and PCE data.
#TradingDiary #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $XAU Among the seventh batch of key enterprises introduced by the Hong Kong Key Enterprises Office, there is a Nasdaq-listed company called Solana Company, which operates the SOL treasury and validator nodes, holding about 2.2 million SOL on its books. It is the only blockchain infrastructure company invited in this year, and they also said the Asia-Pacific headquarters is set in Hong Kong.
The cards are good. But SOL is currently fluctuating around 100.9, with a 24-hour low touching 99.83, still not standing up. Everyone saw the drop below 100 a couple of days ago, and I was puzzled—after so many positive factors, why is the price still lying flat?
Looking at the perpetual contracts, it's even clearer: open interest is $3.2 billion, the fee rate is 0.01%, lukewarm at best. Real money buying hasn't kept up.
What SOL lacks this round isn't a story, but someone willing to commit three months' worth of funds in one go. Stories can be hyped up easily, but the money isn't there.
Of course, it's quite funny for me, an empty holder, to be worrying about this here.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Kraken's parent company is moving the US perpetual contracts onto the Hyperliquid chain. Would you call this a positive development, or a hole poked in decentralization?
I've thought about this, and it's not that simple. Hyperliquid itself announced on October 26: Bitnomial (a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse under Payward) will be the first regulated HIP-3 deployer, with NinjaTrader Clearing managing client accounts, pending regulatory approval.
Matching happens on-chain, compliance at the door. To get through this door, you first have to be on the whitelist. This is completely different from their usual permissionless approach.
HYPE is currently at 78.6, up 2.7% in 24 hours; the market is rallying first. My view is that this is about grabbing TradFi's landing channel, neutral to slightly positive, but don't expect US retail investors to suddenly flood in without barriers.
The real value is that the on-chain order book has been approved by regulators. I support this direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 HOOD Robinhood｜Prediction: Choose Yes
Robinhood's performance is highly tied to the liquidity of the crypto market. The current market consensus continues to be revised upward, with Bernstein setting a target price of 0.60, indicating good upside potential.
Risks are also evident: crypto market volatility is high, and if coin prices weaken, it will drag down the platform's trading revenue. At the same time, attention should be paid to whether NIR (Net Interest Revenue) turns negative.
This forecast approach: follow the trend to bet on the upward direction of the seller consensus, waiting for the earnings report to verify.A $22.46 million position, 25x leverage short, floating loss of $48,000. I saw this order in the news flash today and watched it closely for a while.
The price actually hasn't moved much. ETH is now at 2332, with a 24-hour low of 2297, just a swing of about thirty-something dollars back and forth, the shorts are already sweating first. Around 2300 I also wanted to short, but was too slow to enter; now it looks like I dodged a bullet.
On the same day, there was an old-timer holding for four years who transferred 3084 ETH into Binance, and the media calculated his profit at $920,000. The one holding for four years chose to exit, the one using 25x leverage chose to stay; these two contrasting choices make it interesting.
The fees are cheap for both longs and shorts, 0.0096%, with $15.3 billion in open positions sideways without movement, indicating no one is betting on a big directional move.
At this level, I’m not chasing shorts. There are old chips above wanting to exit, and 2300 below can’t be broken through; both sides are wearing each other down. I’ll follow whoever gives up first.
#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ Conclusion first: $BREV rose 16.6% in the past 24 hours (0.0800→0.0933), but the buying pressure is neither on-chain nor on OKX; it's on the Korean won market in South Korea.
On South Korea's Upbit, the KRW-BREV 24-hour trading volume was 48.26 million tokens (about 4.5 million USD), with 37.36 million tokens traded in the three hours after 20:00, accounting for 77% of the daily volume. The price moved 110→122→118→122 KRW, now at 125, with a 24-hour high of 128 (+16.8%).
On-chain activity is almost empty: only $1,795 traded on Uniswap in 24 hours.
On OKX, perpetual contracts traded $6.97 million, while spot only $348,000—perpetual is 20 times the spot volume. What’s really worth noting is the funding rate: out of the last 8 periods, 7 settled negative; at 20:00 today it was -0.0155%, and the current period is -0.1125%. Shorts are continuously paying longs, yet the price keeps rising.
My judgment: the rise is driven by Korean spot market, while positions are built up in perpetuals. Market cap is only $23.27 million, FDV 93.09 million, 4x dilution. Whether the buying pressure from Korea is still there is the real question for those chasing longs; for shorts, with funding rates this negative, the odds are not in your favor. For this $BREV move, do you think it’s short-term capital or the first phase of a new narrative?This week, three major risks hang over the US stock market: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Powell's press conference, and GDP and core PCE data. The market is most eager for a signal of rate cuts.
At 2:00 AM the decision will be announced, followed by the 2:30 AM press conference: the interest rate is very likely to remain unchanged this time, with the focus on Powell's wording. If he acknowledges inflation easing and leaves room for rate cuts, growth stocks like the Nasdaq and storage sectors will likely see a rush of capital; if he remains hawkish, emphasizing inflation volatility and delaying rate cuts, high-valuation stocks like $SOXL and $SDK are likely to take a hit first.
At 8:30 PM, GDP and core PCE data will be released: if GDP is too strong, it will be interpreted as the economy holding up well, reducing the urgency for rate cuts; core PCE is the Fed's key concern—if it rises, expectations for rate cuts will cool, and the tech sector may plunge; if it falls below the previous 0.2%, rate cut expectations will heat up, giving growth stocks momentum to rebound.
SK Hynix's earnings report has just been released, and the storage sector was already in a battle for reversal, but whether it can launch a major rally depends on the Fed's macro gate. Earnings reflect the sector's fundamentals, but interest rates and inflation are the overall market's master switch. Even if earnings are good, if Powell remains hawkish, any rebound may be interrupted; conversely, if inflation weakens and the Fed turns dovish, risk assets like US stocks, semiconductors, and BTC are expected to rise in tandem.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Brothers, I'm numb, really numb!
This time I really have to thank this "toy company" that makes robots, it gave me a solid feast!
Why call it a toy company?
Go and savor the "mismatch between capital frenzy and deployment economics."
That sounds too literary, so in plain A-share language: the story is too rich, but the actual performance is disappointingly weak!
Concepts are hyped to the sky, valuations soar to unimaginable heights, but in the end, real profits have to pay the bill. What if they can't?
They can only crash down!
Look at the $UNITREE candlestick chart, it previously skyrocketed to 104.79. How many people got jealous and rushed in impulsively?
And the result? Now the truth is out, it’s crashed straight down to 93.50.
All the moving averages above have turned downward, forming a crushing pressure like Mount Tai.
The crazier it rose before, the more miserable it falls now. This is pure bubble burst, value returning!
My short position at the high of 102, holding until now, comfortably took an 83% profit.
When trading, never be brainwashed by so-called "grand narratives." No matter how big the bubble, it will always be popped by a needle someday.
I’ve already planned the next script: if it dares to struggle desperately and rebounds to the dense trapped zone between 96 and 98, I will be ruthless and decisively add to my short position!
$BTC
$ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 110亿美元的BTC期权周五到期，这个数字比很多人这周盯的FOMC还值得多看一眼。 你猜做市商现在最怕价格往哪边走？ 先看日历：10月29日FOMC，利率大概率按兵不动，真正的变量是十二月的前瞻措辞，鹰一点风险偏好就缩；同一天还有PCE和三季度GDP，通胀降温对ZEC这类叙事币是顺风，价格黏住则反弹空间被压。但这两件事是预期层面的拉扯，真正落在账面上的，是10月30日那笔110亿美元BTC期权结算。 为什么期权结算比新闻更值得盯？因为做市商的对冲是机械的。83K到85K这个区间堆着大量头寸，价格贴近这里时，gamma对冲会逼着他们追涨杀跌，波动被放大；一旦偏离，对冲压力反而衰减，行情容易突然变安静。也就是说，这周BTC的节奏大概率不是单边叙事，而是先被衍生品结构拽着走。 传导路径我这样看：若FOMC措辞偏鹰、PCE又黏，风险偏好先收缩，高beta山寨承压，ETH跟着BTC的波动率一起被抬；若通胀数据降温，ZEC这类小叙事先暖场，但资金敢不敢扩散到山寨，还得看BTC结算后波动率是否回落。偏多的一面是结算落地、对冲压力释放，价格站回区间上沿后情绪容易修复；风险在于83K到85K若失守，机械
UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) (October 19-26, 2026)
This indicator tracks the price distribution of Bitcoin (BTC) at the last on-chain movement (transaction) of currently circulating coins.
Each orange bar represents the amount of BTC last transacted within a specific price range (here spaced at $1000 intervals, i.e., ATH segments).
Chip Concentration Areas: The taller the bar, the more "chips" (trading volume) accumulated in that price range. These areas are technically considered important support zones (dense areas below, where many holding costs lie, potentially attracting buy orders during declines) or resistance zones (dense areas above, where price rallies may encounter selling pressure to break even).
URPD DIFF (Chip Changes) (October 19-26, 2026)
Based on URPD, this marks the increase or decrease of chips by comparing the selected time period:
Red solid bars (DIFF positive): indicate chip increases in the price range, showing recent large BTC transactions at this price level (accumulation or turnover).
Green dashed lines (DIFF negative): indicate chip decreases in the price range, showing chips originally at this price level have shifted (upward shifts often mean profit-taking sales, downward shifts may mean stop-loss selling or redistribution).
Current Chart and Market Analysis
Combining the data in the chart (current price around $80,500) and the present market structure:
Core Chip Concentration Area (Strong Support)
Chart$BTW is such a new coin, rising more than 200 times in just a few months. The key point is that at its peak, the fully unlocked market cap was nearly 30 billion. It's really funny that a coin with such a lackluster market cap could make it into the top ten.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
"Robinhood Explosive Volume: Where Does the Increment Come From?"
Robinhood's crypto trading fees surged quarter-over-quarter in Q3, with retail and high-frequency trading enthusiasm in the US stock market fully ignited.
Comparing with spot trading data across the web, BTC's daily trading volume gradually declined from $553 million on October 22 to $225 million on the 27th, with the price oscillating repeatedly around the $80,000 mark.
The platform earns fees through lending coins with leverage and high-frequency turnover, but whether the subsequent trading growth momentum can be sustained depends crucially on the Q3 audited financial report to be released on October 30. $BTC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SK Hynix's Q3 2026 financial report will be released on October 28. In Q3, HBM4 is mostly in the stacking and early volume ramp-up stages. The strong performance and profits for the quarter are still mainly supported by the high-priced long-term contracted HBM3E and DRAM price increases. Whether HBM4 can substantially boost profitability depends on mass production yield, unit manufacturing cost, and order visibility for Q4.$PYPL Today's key focus is whether payment transaction volume can drive a rebound in profit margins. Active accounts and total payment volume on payment platforms only matter if they convert into high-quality transaction revenue; competition and promotions will erode profits. The interest rate environment also affects consumption and financing costs. If transaction volume growth, profit margins, and cash flow all improve simultaneously, a recovery is credible; if revenue is driven by low-margin business and user growth is weak, I will remain cautious. $XAU Gold has finally broken through the short-term resistance near 4040 after several days of grinding
The area around 4100 is also a dense pressure zone; currently, focus on whether this resistance level can continue to be broken
The current gold news is in a transitional phase of "weakening headwinds but suppression not eliminated," with bullish and bearish forces more balanced than before
The factors supporting the rebound mainly come from two lines: first, the decline in oil prices has eased inflation and the transmission pressure of rate hikes. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan visited Iran for talks, showing marginal progress in Middle East diplomatic mediation. Brent crude fell back to around $110, and WTI briefly dropped below $100 intraday. The cooling of oil prices has temporarily removed the main driving force of the suppression chain "high inflation → Fed forced to tighten further," giving gold some breathing room. Second, there is structural buying support below 4000.
However, this is currently an oversold rebound; gold needs to hold above 4230 to be considered a strong rebound. The directional choice will most likely be broken by this week's Fed decision and subsequent PCE data
The above is a personal opinion for reference only Why is the crypto market still rising tonight when US data is so strong?
Let's look at the data first. At 8:30, durable goods orders rose 1.8% month-over-month, the biggest increase in five months; at 10:00, the consumer confidence index was 91.7, while the market had expected 81. Both are numbers that say "the economy is very strong," and the 10-year US Treasury yield shot up to 5%, peaking at 4.997.
Logically, this should give the Federal Reserve more confidence to stay tough, and risk assets should be avoided.
So what happened? $BTC was still below 80,000 during the day but rallied back to 80,300 at night; $ETH bounced from 2299 to 2334; $SOL also climbed back above 100. Some people started saying "all bad news is priced in."
Honestly, I don't understand this kind of rally.
It seems everyone only remembers one thing: a rate hike is very unlikely early Thursday morning. So no matter how strong the data is, it can be interpreted as "no rate hike anyway, so it's good news." But the fact that the Treasury yield surged to 5% is being ignored by the market—when the risk-free rate is nearly 5%, money can earn interest just by sitting idle, so who would still speculate in crypto?
My view is simple: tonight's rally is mostly a rebound from the daytime drop and short covering, plus a bunch of people betting on no rate hike. The real bombshell will be on Thursday, when Powell talks about December.
Then we'll know if tonight's bullish candle is a rebound or a trap to lure you in.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
A comprehensive early interpretation of the rate decision
Maintaining the rate unchanged in October is a foregone conclusion, but the real killer move is hidden in the press conference wording and the December rate hike expectations.
First, the conclusion prediction.
First, October will definitely hold steady, this is an undisputed clear card.
The CME data in the chart has already revealed the bottom line, with a 90.6% probability of maintaining the rate unchanged. The Federal Reserve cannot create surprises at this critical moment and go against the entire market.
Second, the biggest variable is that this meeting does not have a dot plot.
This time, no new economic forecast will be released. This means the market has lost one of the most important coordinates. Without the guidance of the dot plot, every word and phrase from the Fed Chair at the press conference will be scrutinized by investors with a magnifying glass, becoming the sole anchor for market pricing.
Third, the guillotine of a December rate hike still hangs overhead.
The probability of a 25 basis point hike in December has soared to between 67.5% and 73.9%. This indicates that even if October pauses, the Fed is still hawkish at its core.
Specific predictions for BTC:
If the press conference is hawkish: As long as the statement or speech continues to emphasize stubborn inflation or that restrictive policies still need to be maintained, the expectation of a December rate hike will be reinforced again.
If the press conference is dovish: Unless the Fed explicitly signals that the rate hike cycle has ended, the market is unlikely to reverse directly. BTC may stabilize with reduced volume around the 80,000 level, leading to a short-term oversold rebound. $BTC 🚨$HYPE Don't just focus on price fluctuations! What bulls should really pay attention to is that it is turning trading volume into token demand!
Many people trade crypto only by looking at red and green candlesticks, but they overlook a core issue: can the money a project earns actually support the token?
HYPE's bullish logic lies exactly here!
📌 First, buyback and burn is not just empty talk!
Hyperliquid uses eligible protocol fees to buy back HYPE, then burns the tokens through the aid fund mechanism. Public reports show that as of mid-October, the cumulative buyback scale has reached tens of millions of HYPE. The more active the trading, the more opportunity for protocol revenue to increase, giving the token more direct demand support. Note that the income and buyback ratio also vary; rising trading volume does not necessarily push the token price up.
📌 Second, the ecosystem no longer only focuses on cryptocurrencies
HIP-3 is expanding perpetual contract markets for more assets, giving Hyperliquid the chance to capture trading demand for assets like gold and silver. The larger the market, the more users and revenue sources the platform can reach in the future.
📌 Third, what do bulls really need to wait for?
Not to blindly buy the dip when seeing a drop, but to observe whether key supports hold, whether rebounds have volume support, and whether funding rates and open interest are overheated. A volume breakout above resistance makes the bullish structure more convincing; if support fails, be cautious of further pullbacks.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $MEME Amazon's earnings report is coming soon. Besides AWS growth, I also want to hear about Trainium.
Amazon disclosed in Q2 that the annualized revenue scale of its AI business and chip business each exceeds $25 billion. It is important to note that the annualized scale is calculated based on the current business pace and should not be considered as completed full-year revenue, nor should the two be simply added together as independent new revenue.
What interests me is whether self-developed chips can help AWS retain customers.
If customers migrate workloads over and achieve suitable performance and cost, AWS has the opportunity to secure longer-term usage through the combination of chips, software, and cloud services. Such customer relationships are more worth observing than a one-time equipment sale.
However, from announcement to large-scale use, adaptation is needed. Whether developers can migrate easily and whether operations are stable will affect how many tasks customers ultimately put on it. Signing a partnership is far from completing all the work.
I hope the earnings report can provide more progress on actual usage and less hype supported only by promised amounts. After all, customers' willingness to pay continuously indicates the product has entered daily operations.
AWS is already very large, and the market's willingness to expect higher growth naturally demands more concrete evidence. If self-developed chips can continuously bring customers and profits, I think this achievement is more exciting than simply buying another batch of GPUs.
#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ $XRP
While many are focused on stablecoins regarding Ripple's partnership with Robinhood, I'm watching another development: BNY Mellon announced custody of XRP and RLUSD, and plans to collaborate with Ripple on tokenizing trade finance.
The term "custody," coming from a 200-year-old established bank, carries a different weight. Previously, exchanges held your coins; now traditional banks say, "We'll do it." I acknowledge this system—licenses are not obtained for nothing.
XRP is currently priced at 1.317, fluctuating between 1.284 and 1.321 in the past 24 hours, up just over 1%, with a fee rate of 0.01%, and no rush of funds.
People often ask me where XRP can go; I don't give a price. Traditional finance is starting to guard the crypto space, and that is worth more than today's 1% gain—when someone truly puts client assets in, I'll make a separate note.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH
A $22.46 million position, 25x leverage short, floating loss of $48,000. I saw this order flash in the news today and watched it closely for a while.
The price actually hasn't moved much. ETH is now at 2332, with a 24-hour low of 2297, just a swing of about thirty-some dollars, and the shorts are already sweating. I also wanted to short around 2300 but was too slow to enter; looking back, I dodged a bullet.
On the same day, there was an old-timer holding for four years who transferred 3084 ETH into Binance, and the media calculated his profit at $920,000. Choosing to exit after four years versus choosing to stay with 25x leverage—these two decisions happening simultaneously is quite interesting.
The fee rates are cheap for both longs and shorts, 0.0096%, with $15.3 billion in open interest sideways and unmoved, indicating no one is betting on a big directional move.
At this level, I’m not chasing shorts. There are old coins above wanting to exit, and 2300 below is a support that can’t be broken; both sides are wearing each other down. I’ll follow whoever gives up first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Can $KO's earnings report today indicate that consumer demand remains resilient? For beverage companies, pricing, sales mix, and exchange rate impacts are more important than just looking at revenue; if price increases exceed consumer tolerance, revenue growth may be accompanied by a decline in sales volume. Today's results will provide real clues. If organic sales remain stable and profit margins hold, I will maintain a defensive stance; if sales weaken and growth is only supported by price hikes, the defensive premium needs to be revised downward. $ETH #Spot ETF capital inflow, can BTC and ETH take over?
#October FOMC rate decision to be announced this week
#ETF inflow divergence: funds only cling to BTC, full-scale counterattack is still early
Spot ETFs seem to be warming up, but funds are extremely "biased": BTC attracted $110 million in a single day, IBIT ended outflows and supported the 80,000 level; ETH, however, saw a net outflow of nearly $90 million, with large outflows from BlackRock dragging the overall market; SOL simultaneously outflowed $8.23 million, with high-beta assets bearing the brunt first. This is by no means a full market reversal, just a "selective risk aversion" by funds ahead of the FOMC.
The market fully confirms the divergence: BTC repeatedly battles around the 80,000 mark, facing selling pressure upon touching it. The cumulative outflow pressure exceeding $770 million over the past two days remains unresolved, and single-day inflows are far from enough to reverse the trend. ETH is stuck in a second consolidation range between 2313-2530, running close to the lower boundary. Although downward momentum has eased, incremental buying is lacking, with clear resistance at 2400 and weak breakout strength.
On-chain fund data also shows divergence, with flows contradicting depending on the metrics, essentially reflecting the current fragmented consensus between bulls and bears, with funds acting independently. Before the decision, the market will most likely continue narrow oscillations. In a structural market, avoid blindly bottom-fishing altcoins. Watch closely for two confirmation signals going forward: BTC effectively holding above 80,000 and ETF funds turning to sustained net inflows. Only when both are met simultaneously can the trend be considered stable. The "Fee Drain Fault" in the LSD Track: World's Largest Staking Scale, But Why Doesn't the Token Price Rise?
LSD (Liquid Staking Derivatives) and Restaking tracks are often seen as stable cash cows generating steady yields. However, a large scale does not necessarily mean strong token empowerment. If profits do not flow to token holders, a hundred-billion TVL is just self-indulgence by the project team.
Comparing these three projects:
$LDO: The absolute leader in liquid staking with extremely high TVL. But looking through the token mechanism, the protocol's staking fee revenue is not directly distributed to token holders, and the governance token still lacks hard cash flow capture. When you buy it, you are buying an expectation of ecosystem share, not real dividends.
$ETHFI: The business is indeed expanding, with crypto card payments contributing decent income. But its pain point lies in extremely random buyback execution: it was significantly reduced mid-term, and although it has resumed, it is far below expectations. Also, the team’s tokens are still continuously unlocking, severely diluting the positive cash flow due to selling pressure.
$PENDLE: No gimmicks, directly uses up to 80% of protocol revenue to buy back and distribute to stakers. It does not rely on treasury favors but returns real cash flow to token holders with an extremely rigid mechanism.
Conclusion:
TVL is not a moat; the profit transmission path is. When evaluating LSD/Restaking projects, don’t be fooled by scale. First check: does its net profit directly convert into token buy pressure or dividends through hard-coded mechanisms? Cash flow without mechanism constraints is irrelevant to you. Core Risk Warning
1. Once the "iron bottom" at 79,600 is decisively broken with volume, over 150 million long positions will be directly liquidated: 79,200 is the recent dense liquidation zone for longs, closely aligned with the October 24 waterfall low. If this defense line is breached by selling pressure after the FOMC, the next target will directly point to 78,000.
2. The 68% probability of a rate hike in December is the real "dark horse" of the FOMC: The October pause has been fully priced in, so if Powell clearly paves the way for December, the market will need to reprice the "second half" of the rate path. This is the biggest asymmetric risk after the decision.
3. The ETF structure with "IBIT solely supporting" is extremely fragile: The precedent of 773.5 million is not far away.
4. Open interest remains high, providing ample "fuel" for leveraged liquidations: BTC contract open interest has risen to about 669,253 BTC amid price declines, with traders holding large derivative positions even as spot weakens. Once direction is clear, volatility could be amplified.
5. AI IPO siphoning + tech earnings both bias negative: While the Anthropic IPO boosts AI sentiment, it also diverts risk capital; regardless of tech earnings results, the transmission path to BTC is unfavorable. BTC lacks a beneficial path in this combination.
6. Weekly Stochastic RSI has formed a bearish crossover: This is a mid-term level signal indicating momentum is weakening on the weekly scale, so short-term rebound characterization requires more caution.
$BTC $ETH $DOOD #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Bitcoin is stuck near $80,200, and Ethereum is consolidating around $2,326. The current market trend can be summed up in four words: extremely low volume.
This kind of market with less than 1% volatility is indeed dull to watch. The $80,000 level has become a tug-of-war battleground between bulls and bears. There's a lack of funds to push it higher, and on the downside, there are buyers supporting the price, so the market can only stalemate. Ethereum's trend is weaker, merely hovering above $2,300 following Bitcoin.
Why is big money holding back? The core reason lies in macro-level uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting is imminent, coupled with several tech giants about to release earnings reports, making the macro environment like a "blind box." Risk aversion is strong, liquidity is scarce, so Bitcoin and Ethereum can only grind within this range, waiting for new directional guidance. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SK Hynix (000660.KS) is currently trading at about 1.277 million KRW, having retraced nearly 60% from its peak, but brokerage target prices generally remain above 3 million KRW, showing significant divergence. Technically, it is in an "oversold but not reversed" state. The stock price plunged 24.3% in one week from 1.681 million KRW, marking the largest weekly drop since 2008. Foreign investors net sold 5.36 trillion KRW in one week, reducing their holding ratio to a four-year low of 48.85%. #AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI Google's current GAAP EPS is 2.97 and the expected level for this quarter is 3.03, so to surpass it, it needs 4% more, and I bet that on the last day Google won't be able to reach that income level$QQQ earnings and interest rates coincide this week; will the concentration of the Nasdaq 100 amplify volatility? Major tech stocks are densely reporting earnings, with AI capital expenditure, cloud growth, and ad monetization collectively impacting index heavyweight stocks. The FOMC decision on the same day may drive discount rate volatility. If earnings are strong and the breadth of gains expands, the trend is healthier; if leading companies' earnings diverge and yields rise, the index is likely to be dragged down by a few heavyweights.随着Anthropic正式递交IPO招股书，上半年营收同比暴涨超13倍至162.9亿美元，市场对AI交易的信心被瞬间点燃。美股三大指数集体收涨，费城半导体指数大涨2.82%，创9月21日以来最大单日涨幅，成分股全线飘红。从欧易自选列表的盘面来看，风险资产呈现出极度撕裂却又各自精彩的图景。 美股杠杆与半导体：情绪修复与“越跌越买” 美股杠杆与芯片标的今晚领跑。SOXL报96.33（+5.83%），暴力领涨。资金面上，过去两周SOXL吸金超90亿美元，创该产品历史最大双周流入纪录；TQQQ报69.86（+1.63%），两周流入超13亿美元，为2026年第二大双周流入。十大美股杠杆ETF近一月净流入超120亿美元，散户在AI回调中持续逆势加仓，但同期合计市值缩水约200亿美元，“越跌越买”的杠杆损耗风险并未消失。 个股方面，$SNDK 报1,294.6（+2.50%），存储板块集体走强。马斯克公开表态机器人所需内存将超过任何其他领域，为存储需求叙事再添一把火，西部数据、希捷均大幅跟涨。AXTI报56.12（+0.34%），磷化铟衬底直接受益于AI数据中心光通信需求，Q2营收创纪录，Q3财报将BlackRock's sell-off funds are fleeing wildly! Is the $BTC main force going to "bloodbath" the bulls?
Trend is king, capital is emperor! Brothers, look at the 1-hour chart with a continuous decline, MACD dead cross downward. The capital situation is extremely poor, with nearly 2.9 billion fleeing in 7 days, score -94, and BlackRock selling 136 million adds insult to injury. Although whales withdrew 900 million, the current market is very weak.
Personal view: The main force is "dulling the knife to cut the meat" to force the bulls to liquidate, most likely to probe down to 79,200 to trigger long liquidations, rather than reversing to trigger shorts! Polymarket's predicted probability of decline also confirms the pessimistic sentiment. Operation suggestion: mainly short with the trend! If it stabilizes near 79,200, you can lightly bet on a rebound; if it breaks down, follow the trend to short. $ETH $DOOD ⚠️ $BTW 4H: High FDV + massive unlocking looming, be cautious when catching falling knives!
1️⃣ Valuation divergence: Market cap is 2.2 billion, but on-chain TVL is only 39 million, circulation rate just 15%, FDV as high as 14.6 billion, price seriously detached from fundamentals.
2️⃣ Unlock countdown: About $170 million tokens unlocking on November 2, equivalent to 26-34 times the daily trading volume, heavy selling pressure.
3️⃣ Market weakness: Retraced 46% from the 2.77 high, clear distribution at the top, negative funding rate, fragile leverage structure.
Summary: A typical low-circulation pump and dump phase, extremely high short-term risk, longs must set stop losses properly, do not blindly catch the bottom. A new market trend is brewing after the market correction. How to seize the entry timing? Use the 【Moving Average Strategy】 to capture it! First: Wait for the daily chart signal to turn bullish before entering. Exit if the line breaks, as with ZEC, VVV, etc. Second: Buy on dips at key support levels on the daily, weekly, or monthly charts, and exit if the line breaks. Examples include BTC, ETH, HYPE, UNI, BNB, etc. $BTC $ETH $ZEC ETH seems to be holding up? Don't rush, maybe whales and ETFs are working together to unload!!
I said yesterday that Ethereum's rebound is weak, and the bearish direction looks more and more favorable. Today, funds still didn't give the bulls any face, ETFs continue to flow out, and early whales are transferring coins to exchanges. Once these low-cost chips are dumped, the pressure will be significant.
After dropping below 2281, Ethereum has been unable to break through the 2360 resistance #Hynix Cloud +AI HBM4 Cloud = Memory bottleneck now, not GPU
HBM market $38B→$58B +52% 26E, $85B 27E. SK = 62% HBM share, *∼70% of NVDA Vera Rubin HBM4* (TrendForce) vs 50% est. 16 stacks = 576GB/stack vs HBM3E 8Gb → 2x BW.
Why bullish: Inventory <10 days (first ever). Wafers 150-200k/mo 3-4x Micron, 50% → HBM4 = DDR5 squeezed → Q4 DRAM +10-15% NAND +15-20%. JPM sees 20%
*Risks:* Samsung $8.7B HBM Q3 > SK $7.6B first time*
*OKX play: Long HBM leverage, short PC DDR.*Hook
ETF funds are flowing back, but extremely "biased"—BTC attracted over $100 million in a single day, while ETH saw a net outflow of nearly $90 million. This is not a full-scale counterattack, but rather a "selective admission" of funds before the macro decision.
$BTC is quoted at $80,335.6. IBIT alone ended outflows by attracting funds, showing a clear bottoming intention around 80k. However, other issuers' flows dropped to zero, resembling a "single-point defense" rather than a "full-scale attack."
$ETH is quoted at $2,332.92 (+0.24%). Large outflows from BlackRock's ETHA dragged the overall market down, with funds concentrating from altcoins to BTC. The resistance at 2,400 is obvious, lacking incremental buying, making the relay difficult.
$SOL is quoted at $100.63 (-1.22%). ETFs saw an outflow of 8.23 million on the same day, taking the brunt as funds concentrate on BTC. The psychological $100 level is under pressure, and its high beta characteristic faces a test on the eve of the decision.
Summary
ETF inflows are real, but they are "BTC flows," not "flows for the entire market." Structural inflows do not equal a trend reversal; waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision is more prudent than guessing the "relay" now.
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ Extremely absurd! Three major positive news events landed but no price increase across the board, with strange hidden selling pressure in the crypto space 🤔🤔🤔
Reviewing the market early morning feels increasingly strange! XRP, ZEC, and BCH all released heavy positive news on the same day, yet collectively they surged weakly and moved against the trend, with the real direction of funds on the market completely diverging from the news. 😲😲😲
$XRP received major institutional support: Aviva placed a $66 million large order, and a 22 billion fund entered the ecosystem. But the market completely ignored this, with whale addresses decreasing, exchange inventories increasing by 47 million tokens, ETF funds continuously shrinking from 1.8 billion to 1.48 billion. Once the 1.26 level breaks, it will head straight to the 1.11 low.
$ZEC's trend is even more fragmented. Against the backdrop of BTC dropping 2% this week, ZEC rose 7.5% against the trend and gained a net ETF inflow of 20.52 million. However, top traders have 80% of their positions short within 24 hours, combined with the mainnet launch on November 5, a typical buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact pattern.
$BCH market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with 60% of users holding long positions, yet it has fallen 8% over seven days, TVL is sluggish, and the active buy/sell ratio is only 0.83, clearly a case of many talking but few acting, secretly offloading.
The three major legacy coins' positive news has dulled, and funds are fleeing, with the core cause pointing directly to macro pressure. The market has now priced in a 77% chance of a rate hike in December, with the FOMC decision coming Wednesday, bearish expectations priced in advance, making it difficult to reverse the weak market trend!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Brothers, the darkest black humor moment in the crypto circle has arrived!
Retail investors are still bottom-fishing around 2300, but Arthur Hayes has already fled. 6400 ETH, worth 15.2 million USD, he left only one sentence: the market must fall first before it can rise again.
What’s even more heartbreaking is that on October 26, an Ethereum Foundation-related wallet sold another 2785 ETH, cashing out about 6.42 million USD. But note, the foundation’s sale could also be a normal operational fund arrangement, so it can’t be directly interpreted as bearish.
What’s truly worth watching out for is the capital flow!
On October 26, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of 88.58 million USD, with BlackRock’s ETHA single-day outflow of 104.71 million USD offsetting some inflows from other funds. Since October, the continuous capital withdrawal is adding pressure to ETH’s rebound.
My ETH short position average price is 2583, current price 2307, floating profit 1069%. But floating profit does not equal realized profit; a market reversal can still wipe out gains.
Next, focus on three key levels: ⚠️2300: short-term psychological barrier ⚠️2281: previous low support ⚠️2209: watch for potential liquidation risk
I don’t guess the bottom, I only watch how capital and price move.
If 2300 breaks, panic may further escalate; if volume recovers key resistance, bears should also beware of a counterattack.
Brothers, do you think ETH will break below 2281 next, or will there be a strong rebound first?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 It's the 4th time 😂 $BTC has fallen below 80,000 and then risen back up. Saying it's strong, it still can't hold above 82,000; saying it's not strong, it hasn't even broken below 79,000.
But Wintermute's view is very similar to mine: 82,000 is a reversal level that must be reclaimed; if it can't be reclaimed, it's just a rebound.
Currently, BTC has fallen below all short-term moving averages (20/50-day SMA are both below 82,000), RSI is weak around 40 and pressed near the lower Bollinger Band, volume is only 68% of the 30-day average volume, so it's not just a rebound that can change the pattern.
$ETH is similar. Now, Ethereum is stubbornly holding above the critical 2300 level, RSI is about 32 approaching oversold, but all four key moving averages (20/50/100/200-day EMA) are clustered overhead between 2,360–2,453. Coupled with continuous net outflows from spot ETFs, the technicals are dominated by bears, clearly weaker. Only a volume-backed move back above 2360 would indicate a trend improvement.
$ZEC, however, is much better, showing a MACD golden cross. It is now consolidating around 1216, RSI neutral at 48–50, MACD just showing a golden cross. Overall, it is stuck in the 1100–1350 range. The NU7 upgrade narrative on 11/5 supports the bottom, but the 50-day moving average at 1303 is still overhead, so the consolidation pattern remains.