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📂 20U Real Account Record 098
💰 Principal: 20U
📈 Profit on this order: Floating profit
✅ Cumulative earnings: About +54U
📌 Current position: $UNITREE
Here are some real-time data points from September 23.
1. Glassnode's "Altcoin Cycle" indicator has officially entered the "Altcoin Season." The 7-day moving average of this indicator rose to 81.25, positioned high within the normalized range of 0 to 100. The total market cap of altcoins has risen to 1.19 trillion USD, reaching a new high since the end of January, with a cumulative increase of 33% since August 19. Meanwhile, BTC's market cap dominance only slightly increased from 59.2% to 59.7%, indicating that funds are spreading into a broader market rather than staying solely in BTC.
2. Vitalik gave a speech at Shanghai Blockchain Week, providing a specific timeline for Ethereum. He stated that Ethereum will fully adopt STARK within two years, reducing block time from the current 12 seconds to 4 to 8 seconds, and final confirmation time from about 16 minutes down to 8 to 32 seconds. Meanwhile, the FOCIL proposal plans for 16 validators to jointly provide the transaction inclusion list, reducing the ability of a single block builder to censor or delay transactions.
3. The $BTC Fear and Greed Index dropped to 70, shifting from "Extreme Greed" to "Greed." It fell 9 points from yesterday, with a 7-day average of 67. The sentiment remains warm but has cooled compared to the most euphoric days earlier.🔥"$BTC as the Director, $ETH as the Hard Worker, $DOGE as the Office Favorite: The Three Brothers of Crypto Workplace Drama"
Recently, the crypto world feels like the year-end KPI rush: $BTC plays the director role, hovering around $86,000 on September 23, once touching $87,000, rising about 14% weekly, all thanks to nearly $2 billion inflow from the US spot ETF in a few days and short-sellers covering to help lift the price. Translated into workplace terms — the boss doesn’t shout or yell, but every meeting the price moves up a notch; 136,000 short colleagues were called out, with $750 million liquidated, including $650 million in shorts, basically "buy or get fired."
$ETH is the classic overtime worker: after holding above 2700, it ranges between 2740–2760; ETF inflows sometimes near $1 billion a day, sometimes net outflows close to $80 million, making its capital flow more complicated than Bitcoin. It’s constantly upgrading, staking, tokenizing stocks, and reporting on Layer2, gaining more tiredly than anyone else, and more sensitive to pullbacks, like a mid-level manager who "writes three pages of weekly reports and relies on applications for raises."
$DOGE is the best at acting cute: it basically has no cash flow, all depends on whether Elon Musk posts Shiba Inu pictures and if the market mood is good. On September 21, during the altcoin rally, DOGE rose over 6% alongside SOL and XRP, like "the director smiles, and the office favorite takes off." But if you treat it as fundamental, it’s like relying on the boss’s mood for your year-end bonus — exciting but unreliable.
Overall, this round is not a crazy bull comeback but a "three-piece set of ETF handoff + short covering + regulatory innovation exemptions." Ordinary viewers shouldn’t stubbornly fight shorts or blindly rush like DOGE.Help! BTC really nailed the image of the "stubborn king" of the crypto world who just hit a new high of 87399 and then hovered at 86390, dropping only 0.03%, so tightly that not even a crowbar can pry it open 🤣
Just a moment ago it was partying at the peak of 87399, then suddenly it got firmly nailed at 86390. Today it only dropped 0.03%, with a 24-hour low of just 85160, not even letting the round number barrier of 85000 crack open a bit. The three moving averages were just shaken and then bounced right back up — basically, while all other coins either surged wildly or plunged, BTC stayed steady as the "most stubborn top player". From 62521 at the beginning of August, it steadily climbed, sideways for half a month in between, then surged with big bullish candles, and after dips, it rooted itself firmly at key levels. The main message is: no matter how retail investors shout for it to fall or rise, BTC just stays between 85000-87000, not letting the slightest fraction of the round number barrier break 🤣Trump made 1,156 trades in July
In the documents disclosed in July, the account under Trump's name executed 1,156 trades in one month.
How this number is calculated:
The documents only provide ranges, not exact numbers.
From 79 million to 270 million, a span of more than three times.
What he actually did:
On July 20, he sold Microsoft and Amazon, each between 5 million and 25 million.
On the same day, he bought Nvidia, between 500,000 and 1 million.
Three days later, he bought back some Microsoft and Amazon.
The single trade range is as wide as five times, indicating that the report only shows brackets, not transaction prices.
The brackets are for compliance review, not for copying trades.
Following this number to copy the direction means copying the upper limit of the range.
#特朗普提议AI更名“超级智能” $NVDA ZEC surged to 1650, but I choose not to chase
$ZEC jumped from 1500 with a big bullish candle to 1650, now steady around 1620, up over 10% in 24h. 21shares launched a physical Zcash ETP in Europe, listed in Paris and Amsterdam, with institutional real money entering, no wonder it surged sharply.
But I’m not chasing. $13.4 million liquidated in 4 hours, shorts account for $12.9 million, a typical short squeeze. ZEC has risen over 2500% in a year, market cap in the top ten. Missing out is better than buying at $16 or $500 and holding, now at 1600 it’s just catching the bag.
Missed it or not, better than making a wrong move.
$BTC $ZEC $ETH
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Recently, these altcoins have actually been performing very poorly.
When buying, I clearly looked at the daily chart and thought there would be a lot of room to grow.
Thinking this is a bull market, as long as I hold, I can outperform many others.
I even thought about doubling or tripling my position and rolling it over.
But the actual operation is very poor.
When losing, I want to cut losses; when winning, I want to take profits...
It's very conflicting. On one hand, my US stock account fluctuates by tens of thousands of USD daily with CRCL,
I hold on.
On the other hand, I can't hold on when altcoins gain or lose just a thousand or two USD.
OP, SUI, PEPE are all losing.$BTC Nearly $1 billion poured into Bitcoin ETFs in one day
This number is explosive even on a normal day, but it coincides with a rate hike, making the contrast itself an emotional factor. The three giants took the majority share; it’s not retail investors chasing the rally. The fuel for this surge is on Wall Street, not in the crypto community.
According to Farside data, on September 21, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $998.95 million in a single day, a scale not seen in nearly 12 months. BlackRock IBIT led with $381.4 million, ARKB $289.1 million, and Fidelity FBTC $238.8 million, with these three accounting for the vast majority.
On that day, BTC rose from 81,146 to 86,600, a single move that woke people up. Ethereum ETFs also saw an inflow of $269.98 million on the same day, also a near one-year high.
On the night of the rate hike, institutions poured in another $1 billion in one day, indicating this wave is driven by allocation rather than emotion. Hold your spot positions firmly; don’t get shaken out by the fear of "rate hikes causing a drop."$BTC ripped through $87,000 in a single session, and the tape tells you why: $840 million of short liquidations out of $1.03 billion wiped across the network in 24 hours, with 130,000 traders forcibly closed out. This was not a broad-based accumulation rally. It was a mechanical hunt, and the fuel was other people's stop-losses. The mechanism is self-reinforcing by design. Each incremental tick higher trips a cluster of short stops, those stops become market buys, and the resulting candle pulls $OFC USDT perpetual 20x short, entry at 0.010235, mark at 0.00853, floating profit +333.17%. The underlying dropped from 0.010235 to 0.00853, about -16.7%, 20x mapped to this number on the chart.
The left side of the line is horizontal, then a vertical pull in the middle, followed by a stepwise decline, now grinding at a low level. For such low-precision tokens, the spike on the chart usually corresponds to a momentary order consumption or order withdrawal in a thin order book; on-chain, it’s a low liquidity pool being swept, with CEX marking along with it. After returning, no volume replenishment indicates that sell orders/selling pressure remain above, or the buyers were just briefly triggered by the spike.
Around 0.0085 is the current grinding position, 0.010235 is the short position entry anchor. The floating profit is unrealized; in perpetuals, funding rates, order book gaps, and sudden transfers into the pool can all change the next candle. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 The circulation of ZEC from 17 to 1600 is its true fundamental.
ZEC's issuance model is designed like Bitcoin's: a cap of 21 million coins, a block every 75 seconds, and rewards halving approximately every four years.
The supply schedule was fixed from the start, predictable and unchangeable. This is its baseline and its honesty.
But the interesting part lies in circulation.
Launched in 2016, by the second halving in November 2024, the speed of new coins entering circulation has been significantly reduced. Halving is not just a price event; it directly changes miners' income structure and how many new ZEC can be dumped into the market daily. The contraction on the supply side is deterministic, while the demand side has always been uncertain.
The privacy sector has been suppressed for so many years, and much of the circulating ZEC was mined at low prices. Whether these holdings can be retained during price increases determines the price's potential more than the issuance curve. Issuance sets the cap; circulation reflects sentiment.
How high the price can surge ultimately depends not on how much remains unmined, but on whether those already mined are willing to stay in others' accounts.
$ZEC #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 $BTC is currently at 86296. Honestly, I'm a bit conflicted. It dropped 1000 points from 87245, looking like it might continue to fall, but the 86000 support is very strong. I remember when I lost 200,000 U, it was because I was messing around at this kind of indecisive point, going long and short alternately, and ended up getting slapped on both sides. Now I've learned my lesson; when I'm conflicted, I don't trade and wait for a clear signal. $BTC current price 86296, resistance at 87000, support at 86000. My plan: if it pulls back to 86000 and stabilizes, open a long position with 5000 U, stop loss at 85700, target 87000; if it rebounds and hits resistance at 87000, open a short position with 5000 U, stop loss at 87300, target 86000. I firmly avoid the middle ground, no holding positions without stop loss. Recovering from a 200,000 U loss, my biggest improvement now is: I can control my hands. $ #Brothers, I've already entered PEPE.
The most interesting thing now isn't how much it has risen, but that after surging up, it didn't crash immediately; instead, it oscillated repeatedly at a high level. Many people's first reaction to this kind of movement is fear: Has the rise stalled? Is a correction about to start?
But I actually think this is the time that truly tests patience.
Why do I keep watching PEPE? It's simple. When the Meme market really goes crazy, capital never seeks "stability" but elasticity. Looking back at past bull runs, whenever the market enters a phase of clearly increased risk appetite, top Meme coins like PEPE often attract far more attention and capital flow than ordinary altcoins.
This is also why I dare to enter now.
Of course, high-level oscillation doesn't necessarily mean an immediate breakout, nor does buying in guarantee profits. The market has no such certainty. What I care more about is: when capital starts chasing the Meme narrative again, could PEPE once again become the name most easily recalled by the market?
So I'm not in a hurry now.
Oscillate if it wants; real big moves never happen in a single day. If PEPE chooses to break upward next, I want to see how far it can push market sentiment this time.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 It's really funny, $ZEC is clearly going to keep rising, but no one dares to chase the longs. Why? People always think, it's already risen so much, can it still go higher? This thought has been circling in my mind since it was over 800, and now it's already over 1600. Every consolidation is just building strength for the next surge.
Let's look at this move first. ZEC went from 868 to 1623, more than doubling, with almost no decent pullbacks in between. On September 22, it dropped from 1295 to 1055, a 13%+ drop in 24 hours, with two huge whale long positions forcibly liquidated for $4.33 million. Everyone thought a downtrend had formed, but just one day later, it bounced back above 1600. This is the nature of a "monster coin" — first it dumps to blow out longs, then rallies to blow out shorts, taking both sides, leaving no one unscathed.
Why does it keep rising after every consolidation?
First, shorts are still being forcibly liquidated. The funding rate is deeply negative, shorts are still paying to hold positions, and the fuel for a short squeeze is far from exhausted. On September 21, that "BTC OG whale" closed 38,000 ZEC short positions within 1.5 hours, pushing the price from 1490 to 1530. As long as shorts don't die, the rally won't stop.
Second, institutions are still entering, and ETFs are locking up coins. The Grayscale ZCSH spot ETF assets have nearly reached $900 million, holding 596,269 ZEC, which is 3.52% of circulating supply. These coins are locked in ETFs, shrinking the circulating supply.
Third, the NU7 upgrade hasn't been implemented yet. The mainnet activation is targeted for November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, so the bullish catalyst is still ahead.
My judgment: every consolidation is building strength for the next surge. Shorts can only hold on hard; as long as they don't get liquidated, just hold. But brothers, don't follow me—don't short a monster coin like ZEC. Going long with the trend is the way to get a bowl of soup.
Brothers, do you think ZEC can reach 1800? Let's chat in the comments!
$BTC
$ETH
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Buying more as the price falls is wrong! $BTC dropped from 87245 to 86296, and many retail investors started bottom-fishing, only to get trapped again when it fell to 86000. I once lost 200,000U because I kept buying as it dropped: bought at 87000, added at 86500, added again at 86000, and then it fell to 85000 and I was liquidated. True experts wait for this signal: support stabilizes + volume rebounds. Currently, $BTC price is 86296, resistance at 87000, support at 86000. My contrarian strategy: do not buy at the middle position 86296, wait for a pullback to 86000 to stabilize before going long, open a position with 5000U, stop loss at 85700, target 87000. If it breaks below 86000, absolutely no bottom-fishing, wait for 85500 to consider. Never hold a position without a stop loss, recovering from a 200,000U loss. Remember, bottom-fishing halfway up the slope is even more dangerous than chasing highs. $BTC #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Below is a rewrite in a style more like crypto news flash + data breakdown + value increment in Chinese, retaining the original numbers, while making the logic more impactful:
Writing
🔥 $ZEC surged to 1615. What truly deserves attention may not be how much it has risen, but that the liquidation structure is being triggered continuously.
📊 According to previously marked key liquidation zones in the market:
• Around 1604: approximately $7 million in short positions face forced liquidation
• Around 1651: potential short liquidation scale further expands to about $53 million
This means that as long as the price continues to approach these key zones, short stop-losses and forced liquidations may trigger a chain reaction, amplifying short-term volatility.
Even more noteworthy, the current $ZEC futures open interest is about $2.3 billion, while ETF net inflows are around $233 million.
The volume gap between the two is significant.
In other words, the price elasticity in this round of the market largely still comes from leveraged funds and liquidation mechanisms, while ETF funds mainly provide narrative and liquidity support on the spot side.
⚠️ The real watershed is near 1651:
If there is a volume breakout and the price holds above, concentrated short liquidations could further accelerate the price;
But if the price spikes without volume support, and new long leverage accumulates excessively, a long squeeze could occur, causing rapid retracement of gains.
So now, the focus is not on "how much more can ZEC rise," but rather:
Whether price + volume + open interest + liquidation data confirm each other synchronously. The Fear and Greed Index has surged to 71 in the greed zone, yet $TAO has only dropped 1.41%. This divergence is the most unusual detail in today's market. The overall market sentiment is hot, with funds clearly rotating into high-volatility small-cap targets, while mainstream AI narrative coins like $TAO are being drained, indicating a lack of short-term interest in it. Technically, MA5=313.76 has just crossed above MA20=313.635, with moving averages converging and flattening, showing no clear direction; RSI=53.8 is in the neutral zone, with no overbought or oversold protection; MACD histogram=-0.7689 still indicates bearish momentum, Bollinger Bands [306.734, 320.536] are narrowing, and the amplitude of the last 30 candlesticks is only 6.34%, a typical low-volatility consolidation pattern. The funding rate of +0.0050% is slightly bullish but not extreme, indicating that long leverage is not excessively stacked. If BTC weakens, $TAO is likely to be dragged down for a catch-down drop. Overall, with greed sentiment peaking and sector rotation withdrawing funds, $TAO is short-term bearish. Entry reference is 313.9–316.0 (around current price and above the Bollinger middle band), take profit 1 at 306.8 (Bollinger lower band support), take profit 2 at 302.0 (extended target after breaking the lower band), stop loss set at 320.6 (above the Bollinger upper band; a breakout would invalidate the bearish logic). WeChat's account ban list includes blockchain again
Outsiders now hear the word blockchain and their first reaction is 'scam.'
What was said: WeChat specifically named "blockchain virtual currency, stablecoin" as a pretext for recruiting people. Fake links, counterfeit apps, account theft for a second round of exploitation.
Why it matters: Legitimate projects are blacklisted together. Outsiders don't distinguish true from false, they only remember these four words as scams.
But this blame shouldn't fall on the technology. A Ponzi scheme is a Ponzi scheme, no matter what disguise it wears.
I want to ask insiders, when we get mistakenly hit, who has ever explained it for us?
Those who can bear the orders can still bear it, but the reputation cannot be sustained.
#Apple、Google招聘稳定币相关人才，或进军加密支付？
#SoFi与万事达卡启动稳定币结算 $HYPE Brothers, September 21st was the biggest setback since I started shorting.
I especially like shorting; the higher it goes, the more decisively I short, but this time I really hit a wall.
$BTC broke through 86000 and surged to 86637, causing 1 billion shorts to explode across the network; SOL pulled up to 119, hitting an eight-month high, rising more than 20 points in a week.
The worst was $ETH, which surged directly to 2806 while I was still opening shorts below.
There was clearly a 65.8% sell wall around 2780, and I thought it was stable then.
Looking back now: stable my ass.
What’s even more painful is that last night around 2732, that position had even earned 171%.
Just made a little profit, then got cocky, thinking I could short another wave.
But before the profit warmed up, new losses came first. So brothers, are you still shorting now?
I still think shorting isn’t wrong; the mistake was too much leverage, adding positions too fast, and not cutting losses when I should have.
After this, I set a rule for myself: when shorting ETH, leverage must not exceed 5x.
Adding positions can’t be based on feeling; it must follow a pre-written strategy, no crazy short additions just because it rises a bit.
Cut losses when needed.
Better to take a small loss and exit than let a mistake turn into liquidation.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 The new address proposed 1 million UNI on Coinbase, with a cost of about $10.07, which highly overlaps with the current long liquidation stacking zone from 10.1 to 10.3. This position is not simply support but closer to a low-cost defense line of a whale.
The market fell from 11.0 to 10.414, with hourly bullish momentum clearly weakening, active sell volume increasing, and the short liquidity near 11.0 above not cleared. This pullback looks more like a bull profit-taking induced fakeout rather than a trend reversal.
Just finished climbing to the sixth floor and left my meal at the door, came back to check the liquidation chart, and the stacking from 10.1 to 10.3 has not dissipated. If the price breaks below 10.0, bull stop losses will trigger in a chain reaction, pushing down through 9.8. Conversely, holding 10.0 is a replenishment point.
Entry range is given as 10.15 to 10.35, stop loss at 9.96, no entry if it breaks below 10.0. Take profit first looks at 10.85, then after a breakout, watch for short liquidity clearance at 11.0; if it stands above 11.0 and pulls back without breaking 10.7, you can add positions, with a second take profit at 11.4.
$UNI
#特朗普将会晤海湾六国，伊朗局势迎关键节点
@OKX星球 #BTC surges to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
FLOCK, MINA, and CASHCAT X-Perp open trading in batches today.
At 16:00, 16:15, and 16:30, FLOCKUSD, MINAUSD, and CASHCATUSD will open for trading sequentially. With all three contracts launching within half an hour, the key focus isn’t how much the first candlestick rises, but whose order book stabilizes first.
When a new contract just goes live, order depth, bid-ask spreads, and reference prices may still be adjusting rapidly. Sudden price spikes can sometimes be caused by thin order books pushed up by small trades; quick pullbacks don’t necessarily indicate fundamental changes.
If you want to observe, I’d wait for trading volume and depth to form after the open, then compare contract prices with the spot market to see if there’s a clear disconnect. A sustained narrowing of spreads and continued volume are more reliable signals; price jumps driven by a few aggressive orders usually retract faster.
New contracts offer opportunities but it’s not worth going all-in to test market liquidity. Starting with a small first trade is more important than guessing the opening direction. $FLOCK $MINA $CASHCAT First, the numbers: The US stock spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of about $162 million yesterday, marking the third consecutive day of inflows. BlackRock's ETHA took the lion's share, with roughly $88 million.
Back to the market — On OKX, $ETH spot is currently around 2750, with a 24-hour high touching about 2788 and a low hovering near 2716. The big coin $BTC is moving alongside at around 86,500.
The data is positive, but the price hasn't surged immediately. I'm watching 2750 closely — if it holds, consider it a pullback digesting funds; if it falls and volume dissipates, don't chase aggressively.
$ETH $BTC #ETH #Ethereum #BTC #DataAnalysis #ETF #CapitalInflow #2750Level #WednesdayAfternoon #RiskWarning
The above is personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; please make decisions cautiously. Take what KOLs say with a grain of salt; don't treat it as a trading system.
Every KOL has cognitive limits. Using cycles, mysticism, and the I Ching daily to predict ups and downs is, at the end of the day, often just subjective judgment.
What truly matters is the flow of funds and market structure.
After BTC and ETH ETFs were approved, market participants have changed, and the traditional "four-year cycle" logic can no longer be simply applied. Wall Street funds have costs and rhythms; more attention should be paid to ETF net inflows, institutional holdings, and volume changes.
Don't be bullish with one KOL today and bearish with another tomorrow.
Instead of guessing the direction, focus on the money.
Wait for opportunities at low levels, understand when to cash out at highs, and patiently seize your own big swings.🫤📊
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #ETF #InstitutionalFundsRecently, the platform launched four tokenized US stock perpetual contracts: MSTU, KSTR, CYPH, and GTLB. Many traders tend to treat them as ordinary cryptocurrencies, but in essence, they are tokenized perpetual contracts mapped from US listed companies/ETFs. The underlying assets are anchored in overseas public securities markets, with market movements driven by stock market fundamentals, macro policies, and industry narratives. In the crypto trading environment, perpetual leverage is added, and the risk attributes differ fundamentally from native crypto assets like BTC and ETH. This article thoroughly breaks down the underlying logic of the four targets, combined with BTC, ETH, ZEC, and AI industry narratives, providing comprehensive science education and risk warnings. 1. $MSTU: 2x Long MSTR Daily Target ETF, BTC's indirect leverage tool $MSTU T-Rex's 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF, underlying linked to MicroStrategy (MSTR). MSTR is a well-known Bitcoin stockpiling company in the capital market, allocating large amounts of funds to BTC. It is the largest Bitcoin holding listed company in the US stock market, with its stock price closely tied to Bitcoin's price, regarded by the market as the "US version of BTC leveraged asset." This asset raised $45 million in early financing and was extremely popular before launch, jokingly called it a "instant hot" in the industry. Many traders pinned their hopes on the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle. In a liquidity environment with loose liquidity, Bitcoin would see a rally, with MSTR rising along with BTC.#SoFi与万事达卡启动稳定币结算
SoFi has moved its $25 billion credit card business entirely onto blockchain settlement. This is not a payment experiment; it marks the beginning of bank-grade stablecoins competing for "settlement rights." SoFiUSD is issued by a nationally chartered bank, regulated by the OCC, with reserves held in a Federal Reserve account—an identity that neither USDT nor USDC can claim.
On September 22, all debit and credit card transactions of SoFi Bank were settled through the Mastercard network using SoFiUSD, with an annualized processing volume exceeding $25 billion, making it the first U.S. bank to run stablecoin settlement on the Mastercard network.
But the real focus isn’t SoFi’s own cards; it’s Galileo. SoFi’s technology platform will open SoFiUSD settlement capabilities to other issuing banks and fintech companies. SoFi’s strategy is to first run the system with its own $25 billion card volume, then sell the "settlement pipeline" to the entire industry. Truist analysts put it bluntly—this is a settlement layer plumber, not a business making money from exchange fees.
Mastercard is also betting on this. In March, it acquired stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK for $1.8 billion, and in June announced support for six stablecoins including USDC, PYUSD, RLUSD across eight blockchains. Credit card networks do not see stablecoins as replacements but as accelerators for backend settlement. $ETH I expect this round to reach $11,000–$13,000.
What is the basis?
Assuming BTC reaches 200,000, the ETH/BTC ratio rebounds to the 0.055–0.065 range, which is a reasonable midpoint of the previous bull market peak. Meanwhile, spot ETH ETFs continue to see inflows, RWA and stablecoin asset tokenization continue to expand on Ethereum, staking income forms a sustained fundamental support, combined with the overall altcoin rotation market, driving ETH to strengthen relative to BTC again.
According to the DCF cash flow model, treating ETH as an interest-bearing settlement asset that continuously generates staking income. This round of RWA government bond tokenization and institutional stablecoins continue to settle at the Ethereum base layer, L2 batch blob transactions continuously bring basic gas consumption to the base layer, and the EIP-1559 burn mechanism will periodically push the network into deflation during high activity cycles. Spot ETH ETFs continuously bring long-term allocation funds such as pensions and family offices, gradually absorbing the circulating supply. The staking lock-up ratio remains above 30%, supply contraction combined with the valuation uplift of institutional interest-bearing assets, within the bull market P/E range of technology growth assets, this valuation can also independently support it.First, the numbers: The US stock spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of about $162 million yesterday, marking the third consecutive day of inflows. BlackRock's ETHA took the lion's share, with roughly $88 million.
Back to the market — On OKX, $ETH spot is currently around 2750, with a 24-hour high touching about 2788 and a low hovering near 2716. The big coin $BTC is moving alongside at around 86,500.
The data is positive, but the price hasn't surged immediately. I'm watching 2750 closely — if it holds, consider it a pullback digesting funds; if it falls and volume dissipates, don't chase aggressively.
$ETH $BTC #ETH #Ethereum #BTC #DataAnalysis #ETF #CapitalInflow #2750Level #WednesdayAfternoon #RiskWarning
The above is personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; please make decisions cautiously. $BTC today $86,209 -0.48%, consolidating sideways at a high level all day.
Yesterday's surge to $86,968 was a phase high, today volume shrank and it is moving sideways in a narrow box between $85,114-$86,718, a $1600 range. Daily turnover $17.9B down 30%.
Tonight is the US September Flash PMI, watching the dollar's strength.
ETF net inflow on September 21 was $999M, the highest single-day this year, with IBIT taking $381M alone. Bitmine and Strive have been adding positions these days. This is not a retail market, institutions are rotating on the floor.
RSI 72.3 entering overbought territory, price hugging the upper Bollinger band. $87,396 = 30-day high; $85,150 = Bollinger upper band, $79,375 = 20-day moving average.
Don't chase, wait for a pullback. Add again after breaking $87,400, reduce positions if $85,150 breaks, $79,000 is the lifeline.Bitcoin stands above 87000, the hardest feeling is not losing money, but earning it uneasily😬
BTC pushed up again to 86683, with a monthly increase of over 10%. It looks festive, but the atmosphere in the futures market feels like a hot, stormy afternoon before the storm.
Long position holders are nervous.
It's not that they haven't made money, but the gains feel unstable. ONE has risen fivefold in a month, USELESS more than threefold, and ARB is close to doubling. The higher it goes, the more it feels like a knife hanging overhead. Take profits and fear missing out on bigger gains later; hold on and fear a big bearish candle wiping out all floating profits. The muscle memory of veteran traders is hard to change.
Short position holders feel even worse.
Technical indicators have long been overbought, funding rates are rising, and according to textbooks, a correction should happen. But the market just won't correct. Every time you think "it should drop now," it consolidates and continues to hold up. Shorts get repeatedly squeezed, liquidations happen faster than opening positions. What's more painful is that the more people are bearish, the more it fuels the rally.
Both sides are afraid, indicating consensus has fractured.
Bulls don't believe they can keep winning, bears don't believe they will keep losing. On-chain data is conflicting: long-term holders are slowly distributing, short-term traders are taking over, ETF inflows are slowing, but leverage is accelerating. A typical emotional market, it will either stampede or short squeeze.
The 86000 level makes everyone uncomfortable.
My view is simple: position size is more important than direction. Those fully invested have no right to talk about faith, those fully out have no right to talk about fear. What really matters is not "will it correct," but whether you still have bullets when it does.
Leaving some room is more effective than betting on the right direction. $BTC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 🚨 $BTC — Quarterly options test arrives this Friday
About $15B–$16B worth of BTC options will expire on September 25. Current data shows call options still significantly outnumber put options. Deribit data indicates the open interest nominal value of BTC options for this expiry is about $15.9B.
Typically, a reverse volatility move may occur before quarterly settlement, followed by capital repricing and choosing a new direction after expiry.
But this time it's a bit different 👀
🟢 Put options have not formed a particularly obvious dense support zone below
🟢 Call open interest still holds a large proportion
🟢 BTC has recently risen above around $86K, with market structure clearly different from before
🟢 Options expiry does not necessarily mean the price will fall; it depends more on hedging and position adjustments
So this time I’m more focused on:
Will BTC continue to slowly rise along the current trend, grinding directly to the quarter’s end?
📌 $87K → Key short-term breakout area
📌 $90K → Next round of market attention level
⚠️ $84K–$85K → If broken, short-term structure may oscillate again
Don’t assume a big pullback just because of the words “quarterly settlement.”
First watch the price structure, then watch the capital flow after options expiry.
#BTC #Bitcoin #BTC87K #CryptoMarket #BitcoinOptions #Crypto Today $NEAR officially announced the launch of Hyperliquid spot trading! 📈Good news📈
👉🏻Short-term impact:
★
At the moment of launch, insiders and market makers will rush in first, liquidity will noticeably increase, and price volatility will likely amplify.
★
Because the Strict List hasn't caught up yet, ordinary users might not see it immediately on the front end; early opportunities actually favor those who keep a close watch.
★
In the short term, trading volume might spike, but whether the price can sustain an increase depends on the actual depth of buy and sell orders.
👉🏻Long-term logic:
★
Hyperliquid has already cooperated with NEAR on perpetual contracts, and now with spot trading added, the linkage between the two is more complete.
★
For NEAR, this means an additional efficient on-chain trading entry;
For Hyperliquid, the spot asset offerings are richer.
★
In the long run, this model of directly integrating public chain assets into mature order books facilitates smoother capital flow and helps the entire ecosystem utilize cross-chain assets more actively.
👉🏻Tips for beginners:
★
When a new trading pair just launches, information asymmetry and liquidity issues are often most obvious. Don’t rush in just based on news; first confirm the official entry point, then check the order book depth.
★
Combine the project's fundamentals with a calm assessment of the overall market environment; this is more reliable than chasing hot trends.
Pay close attention to cases where "established projects connect to new trading platforms"—over time, you’ll get a feel for the ecosystem expansion patterns.
$NEAR 🔥 GOLD – OIL – BITCOIN IS EMITTING THREE DIFFERENT SIGNALS: IS THE MARKET PRICING IN INFLATION, WAR OR RECESSION? There are times when the crypto market looks very simple on the chart, but the real story lies in the money flow behind it. The three markets of gold, oil, and Bitcoin are telling three different stories. Oil reflects supply and inflation risks; Gold reflects defensive demand, geopolitical risks, and fiat purchasing power concerns; Bitcoin stands at the intersection of risk assets and scarce assetsGrayscale has changed its Bitcoin mining enterprise ETF to an AI computing power ETF—this signal is more important than code changes! Grayscale has officially transformed its original Bitcoin mining enterprise ETF (MNRS) into an AI Compute ETF, changing its code to GCPU, and its underlying index has also shifted from the Bitcoin mining enterprise index to the high-performance computing index.
Even more interestingly, the fund has not completely abandoned mining companies; IREN, Hut 8, and Applied Digital remain the main holdings, and it has also included AI computing power companies like Nvidia.
In my judgment, this is actually a clear shift in capital narrative: mining companies are gradually being repriced by the market from "BTC mining companies" to "companies owning electricity, land, data centers, and computing infrastructure."
Why?
Because one of the biggest bottlenecks in AI data centers is power and computing capacity, and some Bitcoin miners already have large amounts of electricity, land, and grid access. They only need to shift some infrastructure to high-performance computing to potentially unlock new revenue streams.
So I will focus on three types of opportunities:
First, mining companies are shifting to AI computing power: IREN, HUT, APLD.
This is the most direct beneficiary and the core asset of GCPU's transformation.
Second, AI computing infrastructure: GPU cloud, data centers, power, liquid cooling.
AI capital expenditure continues to grow, and these "shovel-selling" segments remain worth attention.
Third, changes in the valuation logic of BTC mining companies.
In the future, the market may no longer be limited to just employing itThe three brothers have all shifted from "gradual decline recovery" to "short squeeze + ETF inflow." The biggest risk now is not an immediate major pullback, but that everyone treats the short squeeze as a new trend and adds positions at levels like 86,000, 2,760, and 119.
Today's focus is on the US PMI data and the upcoming meeting window between Trump and Xi Jinping.
$BTC has climbed back above the long-term moving average, marking the strongest structural recovery in nearly 300 days.
Support: 85,200, 84,000, 83,000
Resistance: 86,800, 87,400, 88,000–90,000
Viewpoint: The 83,000–86,000 range was originally a dense short zone but has turned into short-term support. The mid-term structure is bullish, but the current position is better suited for waiting for a pullback rather than chasing highs.
$ETH On-chain and institutional funds are continuously accumulating.
Support: 2,700, 2,640–2,560
Resistance: 2,800, 2,890, 3,000
Viewpoint: 2,700 is the current key dividing line. Holding above 2,700 means there is still a chance to test the 2,800–3,000 range; if it breaks below, look for support near 2,640.
$SOL ETF inflows are present, and contract positions are relatively high.
Support: 114, 110–107
Resistance: 120, 123–125
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ ZEC Volume and Price: Around 1200 with shrinking volume, both bulls and bears are waiting to see who breaks first
Sisters, ZEC is a bit twisted today
Current price about 1204, 24h high touched 1257, low around 1125 with back and forth swings
Daily chart still red, about +3%, but 4H has already shrunk down from the high
4H view
Support first at 1172 to 1175
Resistance stuck at 1212 to 1213
Above that are daily walls at 1225 and 1257
Funding rate turned negative, shorts are paying, indicating bulls haven't maxed out leverage
Most striking on volume and price is the pullback from the high
After pushing near 1250, volume didn't continue to expand
More like profit-taking and chasing players fighting each other
Open Interest narrative still hot, but price is stuck in a narrow range
So my judgment is
1200 is the emotional watershed, hold above it before talking about a second push to 1250
Break 1170, short-term admit defeat first
Don't add leverage chasing halfway up the mountain
$ZEC #VolumePriceAnalysis #PrivacyCoinOKX has opened USDC trading pairs for three small coins: CETUS, LAT, and LIT.
My first reaction isn’t bullish, but from a market maker’s perspective — the order limit is $10,000 per order for the first 5 minutes.
Translation: they’re afraid you’ll rush in too hard.
What was the style when new pairs launched before? Instant spikes at open, full slippage, retail investors taking the bags.
#BTC87KCryptoCap3T #USIranTalksProgress #CostcoQ4EarningsWatch $BONK Today's most unusual detail: a 24h increase of 15.62%, current price 4.07e-06 has already surged above the Bollinger upper band at 3.98001e-06, RSI reached 82.1, and the Fear & Greed Index is at 71 in the greed zone. Price is outside the band, indicators at extreme values, sentiment in greed—this is a typical end-of-sentiment structure, not a healthy trend continuation.
On volatility, the amplitude of 30 K-lines is 19.41%, about eight times that of $BNB's 2.39% and $TRX's 2.62%, meaning the probability of stop-loss being triggered with the same position size is magnified several times. The real risk-reward ratio for chasing longs now is poor: upside depends on sentiment, downside depends on mean reversion. Moving averages are still bullish (MA5 3.898e-06 > MA20 3.6695e-06), MACD histogram +3.95e-08 has not turned negative, so I do not short, but only accept buying on pullbacks, not chasing at current price.
The direction is bullish, but wait for a pullback. Entry reference is 3.90e-06 to 3.95e-06, between MA5 and the Bollinger upper band, because a pullback that does not break MA5 indicates short-term buying remains, and RSI can fall from 82 to digest overbought conditions.RISK / REWARD — THE HIGHER THE RALLY,THE WIDER THE RISK
$BTC $86.47K, $ETH $2.75K — both are near recent highs. But $UNI has moved much further: $10.41, +55.12%/7D.
This is where Risk/Reward changes.
The upside may still be expanding, but the distance from current price to support is also getting wider. A strong rally creates upside — but it also creates more room for a pullback.
So the question is no longer:How much higher can it go?
It is:If I’m wrong, how much am I paying for the opportunity?The most expensive lesson in a bull market: knowing how to buy is just the entry ticket, knowing how to sell is the diploma.
In this current market cycle, BTC has already risen above 2,800, SOL has returned above 1, and OKB once broke through $122 intraday. The total market capitalization of the crypto market briefly returned to $3 trillion, and the BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow approaching $1 billion. Market sentiment has shifted from fear to greed, and many accounts have already doubled, but the problem lies exactly here—after doubling, people start fantasizing about tenfold gains, only to lose all profits in a correction.
The most typical way to lose money in a bull market is not buying the wrong asset, but selling too late.
I have set three strict profit-taking rules for myself in trading:
First, when unrealized gains reach 50%, withdraw all the principal. Regardless of how the remaining position moves, my mindset will not collapse. Protecting the principal is the bottom line of discipline.
Second, if it rises another 50%, reduce the position by 20%. This step is not to earn more, but to force myself to "realize profits while the price rises," avoiding putting all chips on an imagined peak.
Third, leave the remaining position to the trend, without a fixed target but with a trailing stop loss. Hold as long as the trend continues; exit once the trend breaks, without fighting to the end.
True large capital never clears out all at the highest point in one go but takes profits in batches and rhythmically during the uptrend.
$BTC $SOL $OKB
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Everyone is arguing about whether the bull market has arrived or not, and I’m too lazy to get involved, but I did take note that Boss Shi closed all his short positions on BTC, SOL, and XRP.
It’s not that I’m going long just because he closed shorts. The value of a big player’s position changes lies not in "copying homework" but in "reading expectations."
I also checked the two signals he gave: the weekly chart has retaken the 50-week moving average, and the price has stabilized in the 78,000 to 82,000 range, which is the long-term large holder cost zone.
I marked the levels according to his notes:
$BTC support at 85,000, 82,000 to 82,500; resistance at 86,000 to 86,600, 88,000
$ETH support at 2,700, 2,630 to 2,660; resistance at 2,750 to 2,800, 3,000
$SOL support at 115 to 116, 110 to 113; resistance at 120, 123 to 126
My own approach is to buy only near support levels and not chase before resistance. The current position is right in the middle, a "watching the excitement but not ready to act" zone.
One more thing to cool down the mood: saying "the bear market is really over" is too definitive.
The bear market doesn’t end with a single liquidation; it’s confirmed through repeated retests.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $BTC has pushed to $87K, while the total crypto market cap has climbed back toward $3T. The sky is already bright this morning. ☀️ After BTC’s strong move, I went back through four small-cap coins to see which ones are actually showing strength — and which ones are simply watching the market move. 🟢 $HYPE — Around $95.42 | +2.48% Hyperliquid’s native token, with protocol revenue used for buybacks. When BTC pushed toward $87K, HYPE moved with it. Among these four, it’s showing the clearest relat1. The moment I entered the market, I underestimated it The first time I opened the contract interface, the numbers flashing on the screen, the leverage slider, the liquidation price calculator—all seemed so "friendly." Learning to open a position in three minutes, placing an order in ten minutes, this zero-threshold made me mistakenly think that low threshold equals low risk. It was only after being truly educated by the market that I realized: the easier it is to enter a trade, the harder it is to exit.
2. Leverage amplifies not only profits but also human weaknesses 5x, 10x, even 100x leverage—the most direct impact is not on profit or loss, but on mindset. When the market moves slightly, your account fluctuates by more than ten times the usual. You will find yourself:
- Hesitating and missing your originally planned stop-loss point;
- Panicking and cutting losses during a normal pullback out of fear of liquidation;
- Unable to hold onto profits, stubbornly holding onto losses—leverage magnifies both extremes of human nature.
Leverage is a mirror that never reflects the market, but always your own discipline and emotions.
3. The most expensive tuition I paid: liquidation Liquidation taught me not when to buy or sell at a certain point, but an iron rule: protect your principal first, then talk about profits. Risk control is not something to do after making profits; it must be done before every order.
4. Several realizations I only truly achieved later 1. Position size is life. Single losses must be controlled within a bearable range; never go full position or all-in. 2. Stop-loss must be set in advance and strictly executed. Stop-loss is not a prediction, it’s insurance; a position without a stop-loss is essentially running naked.₿ BTC: About $86.5K After previously surging to around $87.3K, BTC remains stable near $86K. On September 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow close to $1B, marking one of the strongest single-day inflows since 2026. ♦️ ETH: About $2.76K ETH continued to hover above $2.7K, having previously broken through a key technical level near $2,661. On September 21, spot ETH ETFs attracted about $270M in inflows, marking one of the largest single-day inflows in nearly a year. 🟣 SOL: Around $118 SOL continued to rebound in line with broader market risk appetite. On September 21, Solana-related spot products recorded a net inflow of about $26M, indicating capital is beginning to spread to mainstream assets beyond BTC and ETH. 🔥 The core logic of this rally: BTC = core liquidity ETH = structural breakout SOL = high beta capital dispersion It is worth noting that the recent rally has not been entirely driven by ETFs. While ETF funds are flowing back, the market has also seen significant short covering and renewed leverage positions. In the past 24 hours, the crypto market liquidation volume was about $1.06B, with short liquidations totaling about $844M, which amplifies the pace of BTC's rise after the breakout. Meanwhile, improved macro risk appetite, falling oil prices, and institutional capital reallocation have also become important factors in the recent market. 👀 Upcoming key observations:The three brothers have all shifted from "gradual decline recovery" to "short squeeze + ETF inflow." The biggest risk now is not an immediate major correction, but that everyone treats the short squeeze as a new trend and adds positions at levels like 86,000, 2,760, and 119.
Today's focus is on the US PMI data and the upcoming meeting window between Trump and Xi Jinping.
$BTC has climbed back above the long-term moving average, marking the strongest structural recovery in nearly 300 days.
Support: 85,200, 84,000, 83,000
Resistance: 86,800, 87,400, 88,000–90,000
Viewpoint: The 83,000–86,000 range was originally a dense short zone but has turned into short-term support. The mid-term structure is bullish, but the current position is better suited for waiting for a pullback rather than chasing highs.
$ETH on-chain and institutional funds continue to accumulate.
Support: 2,700, 2,640–2,560
Resistance: 2,800, 2,890, 3,000
Viewpoint: 2,700 is the current key dividing line. Holding above 2,700 keeps the 2,800–3,000 range open for further testing; losing it points to support near 2,640.
$SOL ETF inflows are present, with contract positions relatively high.
Support: 114, 110–107
Resistance: 120, 123–125
Viewpoint: Maintaining a strong structure above 114; breaking below 114 requires caution for further pullbacks. The issue with SOL is that leverage is heating up faster than spot demand.#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨
AMD breaks the $1 trillion mark｜Market Brief
Event: On September 21 Eastern Time, AMD closed up 9.95% at $615.52, with its market value surpassing $1 trillion for the first time, becoming the fourth U.S. chip company to reach a trillion-dollar valuation after Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron.
• Year-to-date increase: +180%+, cumulative rise of 24% over the past 5 trading days, nearly 30% increase in September alone, setting a new historical high.
• Q2 fundamentals: Total revenue of $11.54 billion (up 50% year-over-year); data center business $6.7 billion, up 107% year-over-year, accounting for 58% of total revenue, becoming the core growth engine.
I. Core catalysts for this round of gains
1. AI agents bring CPU value reassessment
Meta's new AI agent Muse topped the U.S. app store charts. AI agents require CPUs to handle task scheduling, tool invocation, and preprocessing, no longer relying solely on GPUs. The "CPU coordination + GPU computation" heterogeneous architecture has become the standard for AI clusters, leading the market to reprice the incremental space for server CPUs. Meta is AMD's second-largest customer; both parties have signed multi-year large orders. Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic are making large-scale purchases of AMD MI450 GPUs and EPYC server CPUs. Trump will meet with the six Gulf countries, ostensibly to discuss Iran, but under the table, the real talk is about who will foot the bill for the next round of regional order.
What the Gulf countries truly worry about is not just the rise and fall of oil prices. Questions like who will provide missile defense, who will protect energy facilities, what risks U.S. military bases will bear, and who will absorb insurance and transportation costs if shipping lanes are disrupted—all these issues will be converted into military purchases, investments, and diplomatic bargaining chips. The U.S. wants its allies to bear more security costs, while the Gulf countries will seize the opportunity to demand clearer protection commitments and greater strategic autonomy.
Therefore, I would not bet on the situation cooling down based on just one meeting. Diplomatic statements can be mild, but air defense deployments and funding arrangements are very candid. If new security guarantees, base adjustments, or energy cooperation emerge after the meeting, it would indicate that all parties are truly preparing for a new order; if there are only nice group photos, the market will likely continue to pay a premium for uncertainty. Oil prices are just the outcome; the security bill is the core.
#特朗普将会晤海湾六国，伊朗局势迎关键节点 After nearly 3 hours of talks, is there anything that can really be achieved regarding Hormuz?
On September 22, the US-Iran teams talked for nearly 3 hours.
There are many different voices online.
Some feel the negotiations have reconnected.
Others think Iran's conditions are too heavy,
and that it is still far from a deal.
But I actually think the market is not fundamentally trading on a "ceasefire" right now.
1. First, look at CL and BZ; oil prices have already fallen for a while, and USO has also clearly weakened.
2. As long as Hormuz reopens, the supply variable will move downward.
3. The conditions Iran is now proposing—lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, etc.—just happen to be stuck at this point, so the real value of these 3 hours is that both sides have started discussing specific conditions again.
4. BTC hovering around 86,000 was not obviously hammered by this news, which also shows that funds have not yet treated it as a new risk shock.
So my own judgment is a bit more aggressive:
The market may first trade on "whether Hormuz can reopen," then trade on "whether a ceasefire can actually happen" (this is the core point I want to make).
Subsequent news releases are just continuing; the recent drop in CL, BZ, and USO has already priced in some expectations in advance; but if substantive actions like lifting the blockade and restoring passage really occur, oil prices still have room to move.
Conversely, if negotiations get stuck, the earlier expectations will have to be given back.
So for these 3 hours, I think what’s really worth watching is not "how well the talks went," but whether anything can actually be achieved regarding Hormuz.On September 21, US spot crypto ETFs saw strong capital inflows: 🟠 BTC spot ETF: +$998.95M, cumulative net inflow about $56B+🔵, ETH spot ETF: +$269.98M, cumulative net inflow about $13B+, among them, BTC ETF recorded the largest single-day inflow since October 2025, while ETH ETF recorded its largest single-day net inflow since 2026. Meanwhile, BTC briefly broke above $87,000, then fell back to around $85,000–$86,000; ETH briefly touched above $2,800 and is still trading near key resistance zones. What's even more noteworthy is that this rally may not be driven solely by ETF funds. Besides spot ETF demand, the market has also seen factors such as short covering, increased futures positions, institutional allocation, and a rebound in overall risk appetite. In the past 24 hours, crypto market liquidation amounts once exceeded $1B, with a large portion coming from short positions. Additionally, Strategy continued to increase holdings by about 950 BTC last week, valued at around $76M, with corporate capital demand providing additional buying interest. So the real question to focus on now is no longer "Are ETFs still being bought?" Instead: "If ETF funds fluctuate, which funds are still supporting BTC and ETH to maintain high levels?" In the coming trading days, can net ETF inflows continue and BTC can hold steady?NEAR launches Hyperliquid spot trading, and the impact should actually be viewed across three time dimensions! NEAR has been deployed to the Hyperliquid spot market, allowing direct trading of NEAR/USDC. I don't see this news merely as a "listing benefit," but rather whether it can generate sustained capital and trading volume growth afterward.
Short term: Watch NEAR's price and trading volume.
The launch itself tends to bring a wave of sentiment and capital attention, most directly reflected in an increase in NEAR spot trading volume. If there is a volume surge with price increase, it can be understood as the market trading this catalyst; but if the volume quickly shrinks after a price spike, beware of the benefit being fully priced in.
Medium term: See if spot + perpetual can form a trading closed loop.
NEAR already had Hyperliquid perpetuals, and now spot is also connected. What’s truly worth watching is whether spot trading volume, perpetual trading volume, and open interest (OI) can grow synchronously. If spot volume continues to expand while perpetual activity rises, it indicates that capital is genuinely entering.
Long term: See if Hyperliquid and the NEAR ecosystem can mutually channel traffic.
If in the future more NEAR users, capital, and applications generate trading demand through Hyperliquid, it could further boost NEAR ecosystem activity and indirectly bring ecological value to HYPE.
So my time dimension perspective is clear:
Short term looks at price and volume; medium term looks at spot + perpetual; long term looks at ecosystem and user growth.
My personal judgment is that the most worth watching this time is not NEA Institutions are going crazy! The more BTC and ETH rise, the more they buy, is the market about to be emptied?
Institutions are at it again!
This time Strategy didn't issue more, they directly paid cash to buy 950 BTC at an average price of about $79,700, bringing their holdings to 846,000 BTC in one go. The phrase from Seller over the weekend "A little more orange" basically means a clear signal: keep swapping.
Don't think he's the only one scooping up. Strive added 1,355 BTC around $79,500, totaling 26,355 BTC; BitMine bought over 27,000 ETH in a week, with total holdings approaching 5.98 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of Ethereum's supply; Boya Interactive also replenished 152 BTC at $75,900, bringing holdings to 4,468 BTC. Everyone seems to have an unspoken agreement: the higher the price, the more they buy.
The logic is simple: fiat can be printed, BTC is capped at 21 million. After halving, about 450 BTC are newly produced daily, and the US spot ETF can absorb over $400 million in a single day, often more than the daily mined amount. Strategy's average holding price is about $75,400, and now with the coin price steady above $86,000, the book is back in the green. Old holders are in no rush to sell, and circulating supply in the market is getting scarcer.
What's more intense is that these companies buy even more aggressively when prices rise. With buying pressure piling up like this, the supply-demand balance will only tilt further. Buy, buy, buy, it's not just talk. $BTC #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 Damn, the total contract open interest for $BTC across the entire network has reached $61.258 billion!
Logically, with so much capital in the market, it should be a bloody battle, but if we look closely at the data, the bulls seem a bit weak.
The 24-hour long-short ratio across the network is 0.972, with the bears slightly in the lead. Especially on Binance, where the open interest is over $9.2 billion, the long-short ratio is only 0.9099! What does this mean? Big players are aggressively shorting on Binance! Although other platforms aren't as extreme, the overall data also leans bearish.
The current situation is quite interesting: with over $60 billion in open interest, both bulls and bears are wildly leveraging up, neither willing to back down. The bears look quite arrogant now, seeming ready to crash the market at any moment; but on the flip side, if the whales suddenly push the price up sharply, all these $60+ billion shorts would get liquidated, triggering a massive short squeeze!