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CORE is not zeroing out, but a “chronic death”: the hard fork is just life support, the 69 million sell pressure is the unsolvable deadlock
⚠️This article only reviews the fundamentals of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice
Many people discussing CORE fall into a binary trap: either a hundredfold takeoff or direct zeroing out.
But the reality is most likely a third outcome: it won’t quickly zero out, but rather undergo a prolonged “chronic death.” The hard fork is only a temporary life-saving surgery and does not resolve the core deadlock of the 69 million ghost tokens. Coupled with perpetual inflation, the token’s valuation will be continuously eroded over the long term.
1. Hard fork: saved the network, only life support, not a cure
The 8.31 vulnerability hard fork merely blocked the channel for subsequent excessive issuance, allowing the public chain network to continue running.
It’s like emergency surgery for a critically ill patient, preserving vital signs, but two major internal issues remain completely:
1. The 69 million ghost tokens have already flowed out of the contract. Tokens were transferred early to external addresses, and the hard fork cannot forcibly reclaim them. The project team can only negotiate; there is no authority to forcibly recover, nor a definite on-chain locking or burning plan. These tokens can be liquidated anytime during market rallies, acting as a ticking time bomb over the coin price.
2. The underlying inflation mechanism remains intact. Validator nodes and ecosystem incentives continue to issue CORE. The more active the ecosystem, the more CORE rewards are distributed, continuously adding new supply to the market.
The ecosystem’s transaction fee scale is very small, and protocol buybacks are far from sufficient to offset inflation dilution. The more prosperous the ecosystem, the greater the selling pressure.
2. Why is it chronic death, not an immediate zeroing out?
- It won’t quickly zero out: BTC’s native yield-bearing sector has real demand, the project has built infrastructure, connected with BitGo and Copper institutional custody services, and the ecosystem can keep operating. It won’t immediately rug pull or collapse from hacking; the network won’t halt in the short term.
- Chronic consumption logic:
① Stock: 69 million ghost tokens may be sold off in batches during rallies, suppressing each upward wave, with rebounds repeatedly smashed;
② Increment: ongoing inflation continuously dilutes holders’ equity, token supply keeps increasing;
③ Value misalignment: staking BTC yields go to BTC holders; CORE is only a supporting certificate to enhance staking yield. BTC staking TVL growth does not automatically generate rigid buying demand for CORE.
In the long run, insufficient buying demand and continuous supply increase will cause the price to gradually shift downward after repeated rebound resistances, with valuation continuously eroded—this is the so-called chronic death.
3. Institutions only research without entering, seeing through this fundamental deadlock
Institutions keep researching CORE, focusing on BTC non-custodial staking infrastructure opportunities, not bullish on the CORE token.
Institutional risk control clearly sees two irreversible risks:
1. The 8.31 protocol reward mechanism major vulnerability, emergency hard fork rescue, is a permanent security stigma;
2. The whereabouts of 69 million ghost tokens are unknown, and the sell pressure is unquantifiable.
Therefore, institutions only do sector groundwork and competitor benchmarking, with very low willingness to allocate in the secondary market. This is also the core reason why during the BTCFi boom, CORE’s performance is long-term weaker than STX, MERL, and Babylon.
Many KOLs selectively highlight “institutional research” to hype, deliberately avoiding the long-term consumption issues of ghost tokens and inflation.
4. Zhang Sufen’s contrarian perspective on CORE
Zhang Sufen’s model core: prioritize fundamentally clean projects without irreversible major historical risks, waiting for valuation repair.
CORE is in the BTCFi mainline sector, has experienced deep decline, and has narrative flexibility;
but the protocol vulnerability history, 69 million ghost tokens looming, and perpetual inflation—three major hard defects combined—make the fundamentals not clean.
✅ Positioning: a narrative option, a very small position speculative target, strictly no heavy bottom or long-term holding.
Only suitable for speculating on short-term pulse rallies brought by lstBTC launch; once large ghost token transfers or lstBTC institutional funds fall short of expectations are detected, must decisively exit, no long-term holding through losses.
5. Three key observation indicators to judge if chronic consumption will accelerate
1. Ghost token wallet dynamics: whether large transfers to exchanges occur, and whether there are on-chain locking/burning governance proposals;
2. lstBTC landing quality: distinguish real BTC staking scale under institutional custody, excluding inflated TVL from retail stacking;
3. Ecosystem self-sustainability: whether fees + buybacks can gradually hedge basic inflation.
Summary
The hard fork only gave CORE a breath of life but did not resolve the deadlock of 69 million ghost tokens.
The project chain can continue running, and the sector demand is real, but the token faces dual consumption from stock sell pressure plus incremental inflation.
It may not instantly zero out, but until the token risk is resolved, every rebound is easily broken by sell pressure, falling into repeated bottoming and slow valuation decline—a chronic consumption.
Sector opportunity ≠ token profit; don’t mistake infrastructure stories as reasons for long-term token holding.
💬 Interactive question: Do you think the large-scale launch of lstBTC can break this “chronic death” valuation dilemma? Welcome to leave comments and discuss.📌 Doomsday Hedge Deep Protection Practical Manual
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🎯 Three-piece combination:
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② Cross-period calendar spread to share time cost (sell near-term same direction + buy far-term same direction)
③ Deep out-of-the-money far-month cross-strike as the second layer of shield
⏰ Doomsday time decay three-stage rhythm:
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🚦 Position and three red lines:
• Hedge combination single combo ≤ 2% (premium occupies account)
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Core: Doomsday strikes are not directional bets, but a cheap life insurance for positions, winning in cost control and event window rebalancing 📅 Options Calendar Spread Practical Guide (The Rent Business of Earning Time Decay)
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② Core Principle: The near-month contract has a shorter expiration date, with a time decay curve that is faster at the front and slower at the back; the far-month curve is slower at the front and faster at the back. In the first 30 days, the near-month time value loss rate is usually 1.5–2 times that of the far month, which is the "time rent" earned by the calendar spread.
③ Four Key Timing Factors:
· Implied volatility percentile best in the neutral zone of 40–60 (neither too expensive nor too cheap);
· 25–35 days to near-month expiration is most cost-effective (near-month accelerated decay period);
· Avoid earnings reports, non-farm payrolls, central bank meetings, and other event windows (events disrupt the curve structure);
· The underlying is most stable in a range-bound structure; a one-sided trending market risks breaking the short leg direction.
④ Position and Rhythm: Single spread premium net outlay ≤ 2% of total capital; proactively close positions 7 days before event windows to avoid surprises; if unrealized profit before near-month expiration is less than 50%, reduce position by half 3 days before expiration, do not hold on stubbornly.
⑤ Three Iron Rules:
· Do not bet on direction, only bet on the structural fact that "near month decays faster than far month";
· The far-month long leg must not be naked sold for protection (to prevent gap risk);
· Weekly attribution accounting: break down to see if earnings come from time decay or directional volatility.THE NEXT BIG SIGNAL MAY NOT COME FROM BTC.
It could come from market breadth.
If BTC holds while ETH, SOL and other major assets continue gaining:
That tells us liquidity may be spreading.
If BTC rises alone:
Different story.
Watch participation.
That’s where the signal lives.$HYPE recently, what’s really worth watching is not the price.
It’s that Hyperliquid is trying to enter the US market.
Payward has announced plans to offer on-chain perpetual contracts based on Hyperliquid to US customers through a regulated framework. (Payward)
If this ultimately comes to fruition, the three numbers I care about most are:
New US users
New trading volume
New protocol revenue
Because what truly changes valuation is never just a piece of news.
It’s:
New market → New users → New revenue → HYPE value capture
This is the flywheel I most want to see to continue holding HYPE.The CLARITY Act is stuck, but the SEC has taken action on its own.
Paul Atkins is officially advancing the Innovation Exemption, granting a 5-year temporary pathway for some U.S. stocks to be traded on-chain. Trading venues and certain liquidity providers receive conditional exemptions. This innovation exemption allows qualified TSV tokenized securities trading venues to temporarily avoid being classified as traditional securities exchanges, and some liquidity providers can obtain Dealer exemptions. However, entry still requires approval, and only real stock equity tokens with retained dividend and voting rights can be traded; synthetic stock tokens that merely track stock prices are excluded. Companies have the right to oppose third parties listing their stocks on these platforms, and anti-fraud and anti-manipulation rules remain in effect.
Many think that with CLARITY stuck, U.S. crypto legislation is at a standstill. But the real issue is that the SEC did not wait for Congress and pushed forward using its own authority. This is not loosening regulations but establishing a controlled experimental channel. Long-term rule issues still need discussion, but RWA implementation has already taken a step forward. This indicates a shift in U.S. regulatory thinking: where legislation is stalled, administrative means are used to test first.
CLARITY is stuck, but the U.S. on-chain capital market has not stopped. Stock tokenization has moved from discussion to regulatory experimentation, which is the real signal to watch.
In 2020, the SEC opened a door for certain innovative products through similar "temporary exemptions," which later became formal rules. Administrative trials often precede legislation.
A legislative deadlock does not mean regulatory paralysis. The SEC bypassed Congress with the Innovation Exemption and started the experiment. RWA implementation has taken a step forward.
Focus on two things: who can obtain TSV qualification and which U.S. stocks will be first tokenized on-chain. These two will determine the direction of the next narrative. Don’t chase sentiment; follow the structure.
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 $BTC $ETH Last night I was still cursing CNPY, calling it a manipulative whale charging me funding fees every day. But when I woke up, I realized the clown was myself. They weren’t harvesting; they were shaking out weak hands to prepare for a pump! BTC and ETH stabilized the market, the altcoins were busy creating legends, and I was just a spectator.
$AEON
Current price 0.05462, up 8.76%. The new coin’s trend looks pretty healthy, but for someone like me who’s been cut by new coins too many times, the words “new coin” trigger a reflex to clutch my wallet tightly, afraid of getting stuck holding the bag.
$CNPY
Current price 0.5823, surged 51.07%! Peaked at 0.6950! It took off vertically from 0.37, rising 143% in 7 days! Turns out the crazy funding fees charged the past couple of days were just a shakeout to dump weak holders, while the old whale pumped alone to feast. If you didn’t get on board earlier, entering now is just throwing money away, watching others feast.
$ONE
Today’s real “mad bull.” Current price 0.0019882, surged 57.76%, rising from 0.0007 to 0.0021 in 24 hours, nearly tripling! Up 217% in 7 days! This Layer 1 old coin suddenly revived, completely triggering short squeezes and a cascade of liquidations. This kind of pump doesn’t give you a chance to get on board; if you chase it, it dumps; if you don’t, it keeps pumping, driving people crazy.
Today’s market: the brave survive, the timid starve. These coins are all at high levels, funding rates are skyrocketing, chasing longs is like touching a live wire, shorting is suicidal. I’ll just watch quietly and not be a sacrifice for the whales. 5. The macro liquidity is deeper than you think
Don't forget the big picture. The Federal Reserve has just implemented a 25 basis point rate hike, and the dot plot shows 16 officials expect further hikes within the year, with the year-end median rate pointing directly at 4.10%. Global liquidity is drying up.
In this environment, the altcoin season index is only 37, far below the critical value of 75. Funds are not absent but are clustering in top ETFs; Ethereum, XRP, and Solana ETFs are attracting capital, while Bitcoin products are bleeding out.
This means the current altcoin rally is essentially a tentative rotation of existing funds, not a systemic inflow of new capital.
So why is a small-cap old coin like ONE being chosen? Its circulating market cap is extremely low, making it cheap to pump, retail attention is easily attracted, and short positions are heavily stacked — for market makers, this is a textbook hunting ground. $ONE $ETH $BTC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ Where did the 69 million ghost tokens go? Every CORE rebound is a cash machine for the “unknown whales”
⚠️This article only reviews the fundamentals of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice.
The entire network is discussing CORE’s BTC native yield narrative and institutional research benefits, but few face the most painful question directly: the 69 million ghost tokens leaked from the 8.31 vulnerability have not yet been fully tracked.
The greatest damage from these tokens is not the current dumping, but lying in wait in the shadows, ready to turn every rally into their own cash-out window.
1. Where are the 69 million ghost tokens now?
The 8.31 vulnerability originated from a validator reward calculation flaw, causing some validators to over-claim CORE. Before the hard fork was executed, 69 million tokens had already been transferred out of the official controllable contract address.
The hard fork can only prevent future over-minting; it cannot forcibly reclaim tokens already transferred out.
Current status of the tokens:
1. Some tokens are quietly stored in independent wallets of a few validators/related whales, remaining inactive for a long time with no large on-chain transfers;
2. A small portion may have been transferred in batches to exchanges and quietly sold during market downturns;
3. Another portion might have been transferred off-chain, possibly handed over to third parties, making it impossible for the project team to track the final holders.
The project team has been tracking on-chain and negotiating recovery but has not released any on-chain verifiable lock-up or burn plans, nor a clear completion timeline.
The core issue: the project cannot unilaterally reclaim the tokens; everything depends on negotiation. The selling rights of these tokens are fully controlled by unknown whales. We don’t know when, how much, or at what price they will sell.
2. Why say: every rebound is a cash machine for unknown whales?
This logic is very harsh:
At the bear market bottom, prices are low, whales have no intention to sell, and selling yields very low returns, so tokens lie quietly.
Once the BTCFi narrative heats up, KOLs call to buy, and prices rise, whales’ low-cost tokens gain huge profit potential.
During the rally, a classic scenario unfolds:
Retail investors are attracted by FOMO to buy the dip, pushing prices up;
Whales take advantage of the hype to transfer ghost tokens to exchanges in batches and dump;
Buyers are exhausted, prices quickly fall, and retail investors who bought the dip get trapped.
Dumping is not guaranteed, but the risk is permanently open. As long as these tokens are not completely burned or locked on-chain, every rally carries this hidden selling pressure ceiling. This is also why CORE’s rebound strength is always weaker than STX, MERL, and other similar projects.
Adding native base inflation: the hard fork did not change the base reward mechanism; validator nodes and ecosystem incentives continue to mint CORE. The more active the ecosystem, the more new tokens are supplied. The combination of the ghost token bomb and ongoing inflation doubly suppresses valuation.
The fundamental misalignment in tokenomics remains: staking BTC yields BTC; CORE is only a supporting certificate to increase staking APY. An increase in BTC staking TVL does not automatically create rigid buying demand for CORE. Ecosystem dividends go to BTC holders; CORE holders bear the dual risks of inflation and ghost tokens.
3. Institutions only research but do not allocate; ghost tokens are the core bottleneck
Institutional researchers study the BTC non-custodial native staking infrastructure, not the secondary market CORE token.
Institutional risk control has strict thresholds:
1. The 8.31 event proved a major design flaw in the underlying reward mechanism, a permanent security stigma;
2. The ownership and disposal plan of the 69 million ghost tokens are unclear, making potential selling pressure unquantifiable.
Institutions can research the sector, evaluate technical solutions, and benchmark competitors, but will not heavily buy CORE tokens. Many KOLs deliberately confuse concepts, using institutional research to create FOMO while deliberately avoiding this looming token overhang.
4. Zhang Sufen’s contrarian evaluation of CORE
Zhang Sufen’s stock selection core: prioritize fundamentally clean projects without irreversible major historical risks, waiting for valuation repair.
CORE is in the BTCFi mainline sector, deeply down, with flexible narratives;
But protocol vulnerability history, the 69 million ghost token overhang, and perpetual inflation are three major hard flaws combined, making fundamentals not clean.
✅ Positioning: a narrative option, a very small position speculative target, strictly no heavy long-term holding at the bottom.
Only speculate on the pulse rally brought by lstBTC landing; once large ghost token transfers to exchanges are detected or lstBTC landing underperforms expectations, exit decisively and refuse to hold long-term.
5. Four on-chain indicators to continuously monitor
1. Ghost token wallet movements: any large transfers into exchange addresses; whether on-chain burn/lock governance proposals are issued;
2. Quality of lstBTC landing: distinguish institutional custody real BTC staking volume, exclude fake TVL inflated by retail funds;
3. Ecosystem fees and protocol buyback scale: judge if they can hedge long-term token inflation;
4. Latest third-party security audit reports: verify consensus and reward mechanisms have no similar vulnerabilities.
Summary
The terror of ghost tokens lies in the unknown. You never know in which rally whales will act.
BTC native yield sector is a real rigid demand, but sector dividends do not equal token dividends.
Until the 69 million ghost tokens are properly handled on-chain, every rebound must be approached with caution: a rising market can at any time become a cash-out window for whales in the shadows. Verbal promises are not good news; only on-chain verifiable data is the sole judgment standard.
💬 Interactive question: Do you think ghost token holders will wait until after lstBTC goes live to sell in concentration? Feel free to leave comments and discuss.The most unusual detail in today's market is not the gainers list itself, but that DASH achieved a +11.63% increase with a trading volume of 31.8M USDT, clearly outperforming sector peers APT and WLD. $DASH is currently priced at 61.31, with a 24h volatility of about 15.77%, showing a volume breakout structure rather than a volume contraction impulse, which is worth close attention.
From a relative strength perspective, $DASH's MA5=61.268 has crossed above MA20=59.3485, with moving averages in a bullish alignment; RSI=63.5 is in a strong zone but has not reached the 70 overbought line. Compared to APT's RSI=75.5, which is clearly overheated, DASH's upside space is healthier and less likely to trigger concentrated profit-taking sell-offs. The MACD histogram +0.04868 maintains a bullish stance, Bollinger upper band at 62.7401 acts as short-term resistance, and the lower band at 55.9569 provides solid support. The funding rate of +0.0100% indicates a mild positive premium, suggesting bulls are willing to add positions but are not yet crowded. The fear and greed index at 50 reflects a neutral environment, which actually favors trend continuation.
Directionally, I am bullish. Entry reference is 60.5–61.5, close to MA5 and the current price; a pullback that does not break this range confirms effective support. Take profit 1 is at 62.7, corresponding to the Bollinger upper band resistance; take profit 2 is at 64.8, the measured extension target after breaking the upper band.$ZEC I really don't dare to chase this position any further.
Total contract holdings are nearly 500 million U, with the bulls pushing down 432 million U in one direction. The entire market is basically betting on it to keep flying. The bulls now have 131 million U in profit on paper, with 88% of their positions making money.
This structure is already extremely crowded. One-sided bullish positions and unanimous profits mean that every step upward is just giving money to these over 400 million long positions. Will the market makers really be this kind forever? I don't believe it. The real issue isn't whether it can still rise, but that this unanimous expectation itself is the most dangerous signal.
A highly consistent bullish trend is often the prelude to a reversal. At this time, chasing long stocks means you gain the last copper coin and take the risk of catching the last baton.
Storytelling: During the 2021 Animal Coin rally, long positions were overwhelmingly one-sided, with a lot of floating and profitable positions, and everyone thought they could still fly. But then a single needle struck, a chain of forced liquidations, bullish crowds stamped, and the price dropped more than half in two days. In crowded places, there is never a shortage of stampedes.
Holding positions too full, profits too thick, and directions too consistent—this is not healthy, but fragile.
Just go short. Even if I can go a bit longer, I'll go all the way in. Set your stop-loss above the previous high, and keep your position well controlled. At this level, you're betting on emotional backlash, not the price top.
Personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH #ZEC刷新历史新高, the anticipated upgrade of the NU7 is drawing attention 4. How much trust can we place in this "new story" of AI video?
The team's plan sounds great: to build a content closed loop of "raw material → secondary creation → AI expansion → distribution and monetization," set a $10 monthly subscription fee, offer promoters up to 30% ongoing commission initially, subsidize GPU hardware in the first year, and help operators generate up to $1 million in total revenue.
But think calmly: how can a team that can't even secure its own public chain hope to break out in the fiercely competitive AI video track?
By 2026, players like Sora, Runway, and Pika in the AI video field will have already fought fiercely, backed by resources at the level of Microsoft and Google. Harmony's $1 million creator incentives don't even qualify as an entry ticket in this level of competition.
The more fundamental question is: what value does the ONE token actually capture in this AI video ecosystem? The proposal says "newly issued tokens for new business," but for a video subscription platform, what is the core utility of the token? Governance? Payment? Or purely an incentive tool? None of these have clear answers.
From Layer 1 to an AI video subscription platform, this leap is not a "transformation," it's switching tracks and starting over. $ONE $BTC $ETH #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ $ETH 100U Quantitative Trading Day 29 (07:00)｜This top is too hard to break
The whole night oscillated between 2440 and 2480, with four attempts to break 2480 all rejected, confirming the top; 2440 is also precarious.
Short-term cycles are all weak, the fastest one has dropped to oversold, volume has shrunk from over a hundred thousand to just above ten thousand. Retail investors are withdrawing, while big players are adding long positions, with support around 2400.
Key levels
· Support: around 2440 (long-short boundary), near 2423 (mid-term watershed), 2400
· Resistance: near 2456 (upper channel pressure zone), around 2480 (top tested four times without breaking)
Trading advice
Volume has dried up, don’t expect a one-sided move; today is a range-bound mindset. Oscillate above and below 2440, don’t rush to act, wait for it to choose a side.
1. Short on rebound
· Entry: near 2456 when momentum stalls
· Stop loss: 2470
· Target: near 2430 → 2400
2. Short on breakdown
· Trigger: effective break below 2423
· Entry: near 2423
· Stop loss: 2440
· Target: 2400
3. Short-term long (for aggressive traders)
· Entry: near 2400 when the decline halts
· Stop loss: 2385
· Target: near 2440 → 2450
The bot basically worked near the top last night: around 2480 it repeatedly opened long positions and reversed to short, the most beautiful order was placed at 2482, which was last night’s highest point.
Manage position size, take profits and stop losses timely, don’t hold losing trades. Data is time-sensitive and for reference only. ♟️ When an amateur chess player panics and closes their position as soon as $ACH's short-term RSI hits 65.1, what I see is a game just entering the middle game, with a sacrificed piece tactic yet to be realized.
The 24-hour volatility is only 2.12%, which on the chessboard is called a “silent move” — seemingly nothing is happening, but both sides are repeatedly probing the central area. The price is currently stuck at 114% of the Bollinger Band's short cycle, meaning it is only -0.3% away from the upper band and has a +2.7% buffer from the lower band. This structure is very much like an endgame where the king is pressed against the edge: only half a step of escape above, but a whole retreat path below.
The mid-cycle Bollinger Band position is at 72%, with +1.3% distance from the upper band and +3.5% from the lower band — this is my “pawn structure judgment.” The short cycle is overbought, while the long cycle RSI at only 41.7 is neutral to slightly cold; these two timeframes are playing a mismatched battle. A true chess player won’t surrender just because of pressure on one square; they calculate whether the opponent really has follow-up pieces.
So I choose a counter-layout: placing ambushes where the opponent’s sentiment is hottest.
📉 Short:
Entry: Place order at current price +1.8% (waiting for the opponent’s last pawn push)
Take Profit 1: -4.7% (first pawn chain breaks)
Take Profit 2: -3.4% (exchange pieces to gain initiative)
Stop Loss: +11.2% (bottom line, concede when the king is under siege)
Note this structure: take profit ranges are smaller than stop loss. This is not conservative but a grandmaster’s calculation — I use a -4.7% space to bet that the +11.2% defense line won’t be breached, indicating my judgment that the upward attack is a false breakout, a bull trap, not a genuine rally. The 2.12% 24-hour amplitude precisely proves the bulls lack the power to checkmate in one move.
Every entry is a move, every stop loss is a sacrificed piece, every take profit is cleaning up the endgame. The real winner doesn’t just think one step ahead but has already calculated the king’s castle twenty moves in advance before placing a piece.
In this game, I wait for the opponent to walk into a dead end themselves. #strategyplaybookJust scanned the facade of $AAVE once with a laser rangefinder, it rose 4.68% in 24 hours — this is not structural topping out, it's the decorative cornice shaking in strong wind. The real load-bearing system hasn't changed at all.
I'll first look at the foundation. The long-term RSI is only 55.9, a neutral range, indicating the core tube of this project is still in place, and the design diagram in the whitepaper hasn't cracked. But the short-term RSI has already surged to 70.4, the overbought zone. Anyone who has done seismic reinforcement knows: a sudden change in vertical stiffness is a precursor to shear failure.
Next, look at the Bollinger Bands stress data. The short-term price position is 132%, already piercing the upper band by 1.1% — the cantilevered part has no redundant support at all, and the rebar is still exposed. The mid-term only reaches 66%, with 2.8% margin left to the upper band. The two sets of charts don't match, indicating this is a local slab pushing upward, not the entire structure climbing. This shape has a special name in my drawings: an illegally added temporary truss.
So my judgment is straightforward: this is a sell point, not a buy point.
I don't chase the already suspended part. I place an order at $97.99 — that's 2.9% above the current price, waiting for the last shoddily constructed cantilever beam to fail on its own. This is the most standard timing for formwork removal.
📉 Short:
Entry: 97.99 (current price +2.9%)
Take Profit 1: 90.03 (-5.5%)
Take Profit 2: 87.10 (-8.5%)
Stop Loss: 109.29 (+14.8%)
The two take profit targets are at $90.03 and $87.10, corresponding to a drop about 5.8% below the mid-band, which means completely removing this unauthorized added slab and letting the load return to the original load-bearing wall. The stop loss is set at $109.29, 14.8% above the current price — this is not arbitrarily drawn, it represents the extreme deflection limit where structural instability might still cause an inertial spike. Beyond this displacement, my calculations are invalid, and I exit the site.
Capacity must be clarified. The structural fault tolerance for this bet is very low: entry is 2.9% above the current price, stop loss 14.8% above, the odds rely on the certainty of the downward phase, not the space. On site, there is never a beam that requires both span and steel saving.
The underlying architecture of $AAVE is a rare qualified construction in this cycle. But even a qualified building can have the wrong curtain wall installed at the wrong time. Now I am removing the curtain wall, not demolishing the building.598.5 bitcoins are still held by the hacker.
The Liquid Network issue has dragged on for 11 days, and the channel to exchange L-BTC back to bitcoin still hasn't opened.
Let's look at the losses first. 85% of the transferred coins have been returned, leaving 598.5 coins, worth over 45 million USD. Blockstream has clearly stated they will not pay ransom.
Now look at another number. There are 4,234 L-BTC in circulation, but only 3,632 bitcoins in reserve. The gap of about 600 coins exactly matches the portion held by the hacker.
In short, currently each L-BTC is not backed 1:1 by bitcoin. Adam Back said it will be covered 1:1 and urged everyone not to sell at a discount. I believe this half; the attitude is good, but until the money is in place, a promise is just a promise.
The project team is actually in a tough spot. They refuse to pay ransom and take a hard stance, but they have to figure out how to fill the hole themselves. The channel has been stopped for 11 days, and holders can't even run.
I just want to ask, if it were you holding L-BTC now, would you wait or try to get out first?
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 $BTC Looking at $DOGE's candlestick chart early this morning, I suddenly felt like laughing. In 2015, it hit the floor, and those calling it trash lined up down the street. In 2019, it hit the floor again, and once more in 2022. Now, for the third time, the monthly chart shows these three floors looking almost identical. After the first two times, the floor was followed by a parabolic rise. Will this time be any different? I don't know, but my position tells me: I just have to hold on once more. The data this week is quite interesting. The bill was rejected, and the positive news on 9/14 was overshadowed by Bitcoin's crash, so no real benefit came through. Dogecoin was supposed to go to the moon, but it got dragged down. Looking at the chain, from September 9 to 14, whale addresses increased holdings by 240 million coins, indicating big players are still optimistic. However, Dogecoin's price dropped from 0.095 to 0.078. Whales buy more as it falls. Bears say that if the 50-day moving average breaks and a few more bearish days follow, it will head to 0.069, which makes sense. But below 0.0813, there's a turnover cost of 35 billion Doge coins, a solid floor built with real money. Three floors in ten years—I bet the third time will follow the old script, with a parabolic rally to come.Let's talk more about $UNI here
In terms of short-term explosive power, it is indeed not as strong as $PONS. Previously, PONS multiplied dozens of times, and I never really paid much attention to UNI. But today, the fundamentals have changed significantly, so it needs to be re-evaluated.
What does the SEC's new regulation mean? It means that the concept of stocks being on-chain has shifted from "no one dares to touch it" to "everyone wants to grab it." In the past, without regulatory backing, everyone was just experimenting cautiously. Now that the rules are clear, it's like the starting gun has fired. According to the regulations, such transactions can only run on public blockchains, using existing infrastructure. In the infrastructure sector, AAVE has already been hyped by the market once, but UNI has remained at the bottom without much movement.
UNI has two advantages: first, the buyback mechanism is already standardized; second, no matter which chain ultimately succeeds, it can get a share.
It is not as wildly profitable as HYPE, nor as spiraling as PONS, but it wins in stability and certainty. In this bull market, I believe it will break its previous high without question.
There are indeed many opportunities in the crypto world. $BTC 2. Who is really driving this surge
Many people see the 103% increase and immediately think "good news." But a quick look at the data shows something's off: ONE rose 125.63% in a single day, yet the trading volume was only 21.3 million USDT.
In comparison, contract trading was about 340 million USD. The contract-to-spot ratio is close to 5 times.
What does this mean? This rally is not driven by spot buying but by contract leverage cycling itself.
The more likely scenario is: over the past two weeks, retail investors and quant funds across the network saw the "shut down" news and openly went short on ONE—makes perfect sense, the project is dying, who else would short it? As a result, strong holders and market makers injected liquidity counter-trend using the transformation announcement, triggering a chain reaction of short leverage liquidations. Much of the surge you see on the charts is short sellers forced to buy back spot at high prices to cover their positions themselves. $ONE $ETH $BTC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ September 18 Review: Negative News Hits, Shorts Squeezed, but Concerns Remain
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the first time in over three years. At the moment the news dropped, Bitcoin plunged from above 76,000 to 75,064, and Ethereum was hammered down to around 2,370—then, a dramatic scene unfolded.
First, longs were liquidated, then shorts were squeezed. According to Coinglass data, $183 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network within 24 hours, including $107 million in short liquidations and $75.93 million in long liquidations. Bitcoin short liquidations amounted to $55.16 million, more than seven times Ethereum’s $7.59 million in short liquidations. In an earlier liquidation window, 150,510 accounts were wiped out, with $1.83 billion vanishing into thin air. Shorts bet on a breakdown below 76,000, but the price didn’t continue to crash; instead, it bounced back, squeezing shorts the hardest.
Ethereum’s liquidation volume was $53.09 million, ranking first among all coins, with shorts accounting for 76%. The short positions on BTC and ETH were largely cleared within 24 hours, indicating that many in the market were confident the rate hike would break support—but what came was a reverse short squeeze.
But don’t celebrate too soon
Bitcoin’s $76,574 level is just below the “real market average” of $76,700. The on-chain average price line is right overhead, and once trapped holders are freed, selling pressure will follow. Ethereum faces similar pressure near 2,450, with the upper Bollinger Band close to 2,500.
Short squeezes are short-term events; weakening demand is the mid-term signal. Just because it didn’t fall today doesn’t mean it won’t tomorrow. The most telling detail in this week's tape isn't a price target or a rate projection. It's a trader admitting he got trapped short above 150 on $SPCX and concluding that "the big guns" simply won't allow selling pressure to work. That confession is a positioning clue, not a sob story. When a market refuses to correct on schedule, the question shifts from direction to who is absorbing supply. The mechanism is straightforward. A 25 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve, its first in three yeaThe Bank of England didn't change interest rates, which has little to do with the crypto world
The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 3.75%.
This is the sixth consecutive time without a change.
The key point is this: cancellation of long-term government bond sales
The bonds that were originally going to be sold are no longer being sold.
There is one less outlet for money to leave the market.
The next step is: CATL invests 1.4 billion
To build 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate capacity in Ya'an.
Money is still flowing into the mining end.
The interest rate is holding not the price, but the time.
The speed at which money becomes cheaper has slowed, so leverage can last a bit longer.
This 1.4 billion for lithium carbonate indicates one thing.
Upstream capacity expansion hasn't stopped; the supply side story is not over yet.
Two markets made opposite choices in the same week.
One is pulling back, the other is doubling down.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ #贝森特听证释放多重信号 $BTC Last night's bull rally didn't last through the night; in the latter half of the night, it turned into a "scam scene," and by the time I woke up, all the profits were gone.
$BTC
BTC peaked at 77,167 last night. I thought it was going to hold and push to 85,000, but it steadily declined overnight, hitting a low of 75,640. The current price is 76,337, down 0.57% in 24 hours. A typical rise and fall—short liquidations above weren't fully cleared, and the bulls softened first. The 75,000 defense held, but the 77,000 assault failed again. The bulls got their hopes up for nothing.
$ETH
ETH reached a high of 2,483 last night, now at 2,442, down 1.10%. It was stronger than BTC on the way up but just as weak on the way down. After a couple of days of sideways trading, it finally showed some strength last night, but like BTC, it rose and then fell back. The 2,500 level remains a heavy resistance; the bulls need to gather more strength.
$DOGE
DOGE peaked at 0.08277 last night, currently at 0.08136, down 0.78%. The same old problem: slow to rise, first to fall. That surge last night looked strong but softened quickly. The 24-hour volume was average. Without Elon Musk hyping it, DOGE is still DOGE—rising is just an opportunity to sell, not to chase.
Last night's market was a typical pattern: pumping at night and dumping during the day. The night owls watching the market probably regret it again. I'm used to taking hits; when I see a spike, I know something's off, and sure enough, the truth came out overnight.🔥 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL｜Three Different Problems
Many people treat BTC, ETH, and SOL as three different investment targets, but from the underlying logic, they actually solve three different problems.
➤ $BTC → Solves "How to preserve value" BTC emphasizes scarcity, decentralization, and direct personal control over assets, essentially closer to value storage in the digital age.
➤ $ETH → Solves "How assets are used" Ethereum expands blockchain from a simple asset ledger to a programmable platform, with smart contracts allowing assets to enter DeFi, trading, and various application logics.
➤ $SOL → Solves "How applications run faster" Solana emphasizes high performance and low cost, supporting transactions, DeFi, and more high-frequency on-chain applications through a high-throughput network architecture.
So it can be simply understood as:
BTC focuses on consensus and value storage, ETH on ecosystem and programmability, SOL on efficiency and application expansion.
What truly matters is not who will definitely rise more, but where future capital and user demand will continue to grow at each layer.
First, see if BTC is stable, then whether ETH’s capital is spreading, and finally whether SOL’s risk appetite continues to strengthen.
#OKX百万规划师 #ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $ZEC (Zcash) has caught the market’s attention again over the past few hours, with the coin pushing higher and trading above the $1,400 area. But what makes this move interesting is that there is more than one story developing around Zcash at the same time. One of the biggest recent developments is connected to the upcoming NU7 upgrade. The Zcash community voted overwhelmingly in favor of reducing the target block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while also supporting the continuation of the "Today's Important Financial Events | September 18" ---- The Bank of Japan's rate hike is highly likely; what impact will it have on US stocks and BTC?
(1) Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
The market expects a 25 basis point rate hike, the most aggressive pace since 1990. Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference afterward. Yen carry trade unwinding may add extra selling pressure on global risk assets.
(2) US August Industrial Production MoM + Conference Board Leading Indicators
To be released tonight; focus on whether economic data continues to show resilience.
(3) US Stocks Rebounded Yesterday
S&P 500 rose 1.1%, Nasdaq up 1.7%, chip stocks surged 3.1%. Oil prices fell for the second consecutive day, Brent settled below $105, easing bond yield pressures.
(4) Crypto Market
US Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 4,300 BTC yesterday, totaling 12,061 BTC outflows over 7 days. UNI rose over 15% against the trend.
Xiaolong's Perspective:
Today marks the finale of this week's super central bank week. If the Bank of Japan confirms a rate hike, expectations for global liquidity tightening will further strengthen, and yen carry trade unwinding may transmit to risk assets.
However, BTC's current core contradiction is not in Japan but in its own volume and capital flow: the perpetual market is bottom-fishing, but spot buying has not kept pace. Even if the Bank of Japan hikes rates, the impact on Bitcoin's price is relatively small, while the impact on US stocks may be greater!
BTC's 76K remains a short-term watershed; a subsequent likely decline and correction is a healthy pullback in the bull market's early phase!"$VVV LONG SETUP | 1H
A controlled pullback is forming to provide a potential long entry.
Entry zone: 24.932–25.044
Stop loss: 24.773
Targets: TP1 25.264 (1.28R) / TP2 25.539 (2.56R) / TP3 25.589 (2.8R)
Scaling out: 20% / 30% / 50%
Note: This direction conflicts with the BTC 4H filter signal; expected EV is -0.03R, below the current threshold.
Status: Watchlist only — wait for confirmation before considering this setup. Don't see pullbacks as the end of a trend; what really tortures people is not unrealized losses, but frequently trading when the direction is unclear.
The phase that drains capital the most in the market is usually not a one-sided drop, but the fear of missing out on a small rebound and panic selling on a slight pullback, ending with the account fully controlled by emotions.
BTC anchors consensus at the bottom line, ETH carries application accumulation, and public chains like SOL and SUI compete for the next round of entry. What truly has value is not how much it rises one day, but who continues to deliver years later.
The market weeds out the impatient every day; opportunities won't arrive early just because you watch closely. 2026 is just a prelude; the 2028 halving cycle is when most people readjust their positions.
What you should focus on now is not predicting the peak, but asking yourself: when the next cycle truly starts, will I still have enough chips in hand? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 Midnight Horror: The Fed Fires a Shot, Crypto Market Crashes Then Recovers
At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve pulled the trigger—raising interest rates by 25 basis points, the first time in over three years.
Bitcoin instantly plunged from above 76,000, dropping sharply to $75,064. Ethereum fared worse, crashing from around 2,430 down to 2,372, just shy of the 2,400 mark. The entire market felt like the floor was pulled out from under it.
But the real killer was the liquidation data. Coinglass showed that within 24 hours, 150,510 accounts were liquidated, wiping out $1.83 billion, most of which were leveraged long positions, dying in the 75,000 to 76,000 range.
Strangely, after the bloodbath, prices didn’t continue to collapse; instead, they started climbing back up.
Bitcoin reclaimed 76,500, Ethereum bounced back to 2,450, and the 24-hour period surprisingly turned positive. The nearly 3% rise in ETH isn’t complicated—the rate hike had been priced in by the market a month in advance. CME FedWatch showed a 92% probability of a rate hike before the decision. The actual implementation marked the end of "selling the news," with short positions closing and bargain hunters rushing in, forcibly pushing prices back up.
In simple terms, the midnight horror script was: first scare you out, then throw you off the bus.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remark that "it’s hard to describe the financial environment as restrictive" was the hidden blade—hinting that the tightening cycle might be longer than the market expects. In the dot plot, 16 out of 18 officials expect another rate hike within the year. $BTC #What determines the price of Bitcoin# Don't be fooled by those claims of “Bitcoin anchored by hash power.” Last year, hash power increased by 30%, yet the price still crashed from over $60,000 to $15,000; hash power simply can't hold the floor.
In short, its price is entirely supported by the consensus of off-exchange hot money. In 2021, institutions entered the market to buy up coins, with Grayscale swallowing nearly 20,000 bitcoins in a single month, directly pushing the price to the all-time high of $69,000. Later, the Fed raised interest rates and shrank its balance sheet, liquidity was drained, retail investors and small institutions fled first, and the price was cut in half.
What's even more interesting now is that the daily net inflow and outflow of ETF funds have become the short-term price indicator. When the single-day net inflow breaks 1 billion, the price rises for three consecutive days breaking $70,000; with three consecutive days of net outflow, it drops 10%. There's no intrinsic value—it's all a consensus game built by capital.🔥Funds do not transfer all at once; what really happens is rotation.
In the current market, you can't just focus on whether a single coin is rising or not. Funds often gradually seek opportunities from low risk to high Beta. What really matters is whether there is linkage between different assets.
➤ $BTC → Watch market confidence
Whether BTC can hold steady is the foundation of the entire market's risk appetite. If BTC is unstable, altcoins will struggle to sustain a rally.
➤ $ETH → Watch liquidity
If ETH starts to strengthen and trading volume expands simultaneously, it means funds are not just staying in BTC; market liquidity is beginning to spread to mainstream assets.
➤ $SOL → Watch risk appetite
SOL is a higher Beta asset. If BTC is stable, ETH is strengthening, and SOL continues to increase volume, it indicates that funds are willing to take on higher volatility to seek returns.
So what’s really interesting is not which of BTC, ETH, or SOL rises alone, but when all three start to strengthen simultaneously.
BTC holds → ETH recovers → SOL volume expands.
When this chain truly forms, the market narrative may change.
Of course, price increases still require volume confirmation. Without volume-backed breakthroughs, beware of sharp pullbacks after rallies.
First watch BTC’s direction, then ETH’s funds, and finally SOL’s risk appetite.
#OKX百万规划师 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 $MARSCOIN is slightly bullish in the short term but has entered a high-risk zone for chasing prices, with pullback entries preferred over chasing at the current price.
In a horizontal comparison within the same sector, the 24h gain leaderboard shows clear divergence among three candidates: $MARSCOIN current price 0.1202, 24h +35.21%, trading volume 33.8M USDT; $PEPE +7.44%, trading volume 24.0M; $LSK -15.35%, trading volume 30.7M. MARSCOIN leads with the largest gain and highest trading volume, and MA5=0.11756 crossing above MA20=0.11263 maintains a bullish alignment. RSI at 66.4 has not yet reached the 70 overbought line, MACD histogram +0.000117 remains positive, with volume, price, and indicators synchronized, making it the strongest relative performer in this group. The risk lies in the price 0.1202 approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 0.121883, with a 30-candle amplitude of 31.42%. The funding rate of +0.0050% indicates slight crowding among bulls, and the fear and greed index at 50 is neutral. Sentiment is not overheated, but upward space requires a volume breakout to open up.After the Fed raised rates, the long-term US Treasury bonds didn't give any respect at all.
The 10-year yield first dropped to 4.95%, then quickly bounced back near 5%. The 30-year yield was even tougher, staying stubbornly above 5%. The 2-year yield also rose to 4.73%. The market is telling you one thing: this rate hike might not be the end.
Wash came out to explain, saying the high long-term rates are due to a strong economy, AI grabbing money, and geopolitical issues. Sounds reasonable, but he missed the most critical part: the fiscal deficit and debt sustainability. The US government owes $40 trillion, and the interest keeps compounding—that's the root cause why long-term rates can't come down. He doesn't mention it, but the market certainly isn't pretending not to see it.
Next, watch a key signal. If the 2-year yield peaks and starts to fall with rate hike expectations, but the 10- and 30-year yields remain stubbornly above 5%, it means long-term pricing is no longer just about rate expectations, but a combination of term premium, inflation risk, and capital demand. In such times, the valuation threshold for high-beta assets will be passively pushed up.
For BTC, the short-term situation is actually quite tricky. After the rate hike landed, it didn't fall; instead, it rose 1.53%, looking quite resilient. But as long as long-term US Treasuries hold at 5%, the valuation ceiling for risk assets is suppressed, limiting rebound potential. Short-term depends on sentiment, mid-term on liquidity. Until the interest rate tension eases, don't expect too much from a one-sided market. What do you think, will a 5% US Treasury yield become the new normal? #WillLongTermUSTreasury5PercentBecomeNewNormal $BTC $ETH Paradigm also bought $ZEC; more and more funds are starting to treat it as the “privacy version of BTC”
Yesterday, the most important news about ZEC was not that its price hit a new high again.
Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang publicly confirmed that Paradigm has invested in ZEC and called Zcash a privacy complement to Bitcoin.
After the news came out, ZEC surged as much as 23% in a single day, while $BTC rose less than 1% during the same period.
Coincidentally, Zcash just completed the NU7-related vote, with about 2.4 million ZEC participating. The vast majority supported shortening the block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds while retaining a halving mechanism similar to BTC.
Previously, ZCSH brought institutional funds in, and now even Paradigm openly holds it.
So I have always said that this round of ZEC cannot be valued simply by the term “privacy coin.”
It is increasingly being discussed alongside BTC within the same scarcity + privacy framework by more and more funds. $UNI surged 20% in one day
The altcoin season is starting to show some signs
UNI directly pulled up to around $7.7 today, with a 24-hour increase of over 20%.
This increase is clearly no longer following BTC.
BTC is still consolidating around 76000, while altcoins like UNI, NEAR, and ZEC have started to move up on their own.
There is also a very important change for UNI this time: the market has resumed trading based on Uniswap's fee and UNI value return logic.
The recently launched StablePair dynamic fees, combined with the already running protocol fees and UNI burn mechanism, allow the token itself to finally capture some value as Uniswap's trading volume rises.
I just set UNI's October target at $11.
The market started moving even faster than I expected.🟠$BTC + 🟢$SOL｜15-Minute Structure
At the 15-minute level, BTC is still leading the direction, but what’s really worth watching is whether SOL can keep up.
If BTC remains strong and SOL strengthens simultaneously with increasing volume, it indicates that risk appetite is spreading from BTC to higher Beta assets. This kind of structure is usually more noteworthy than BTC rising alone.
Conversely, if BTC stays steady but SOL clearly weakens, it suggests that funds may still be concentrated in large-cap assets, and the follow-up rally logic for small coins has not truly formed.
Volume and Open Interest (OI) are two important confirmation indicators: price rising + volume increasing means buying participation is rising; if OI also increases, it means leveraged funds are entering, but it also implies that subsequent volatility may increase.
So at the 15-minute level, there’s no need to rush guessing tops or bottoms; just focus on this relationship:
🟠 BTC stays strong + 🟢 SOL confirms → momentum may continue to spread 🚀
🟠 BTC strong + 🟢 SOL weak → funds still concentrated ⚠️
BTC is responsible for sending signals, SOL is responsible for verifying market confidence.
Wait for confirmation first, then decide whether to follow.
#OKX百万规划师 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 300 Yuan Challenge to 30 Million | Day 94
Initial Capital: 300 Yuan
Current Total Assets: 2951.35 Yuan
Win Rate in Last 30 Days: 96.72%
Cumulative Withdrawals: 620.14 USDT
Earnings Details
Planet Posting Reward: 9 USDT
Creator Salary: 776.77 USDT
World Cup Event Reward: 43.33 USDT
Cumulative Copy Trading Income: 375.9 USDT
$ZEC 300 Yuan Challenge to 30 Million, now on Day 94.
$ETH Yesterday's market saw a structurally strong rebound, overall market sentiment warmed up, BTC and ETH both strengthened, and the entire market experienced a broad rally. Especially the privacy sector leader ZEC showed an extremely strong trend, continuously surging to break historical highs, leading the entire market in gains and directly driving the overall crypto market upward.
$UNI In this round of strong bullish market, my position structure shows obvious inverse pressure.
Most of my current positions are short, diverging from the short-term strong market, causing multiple Martingale positions to be deeply underwater, and the account net value has experienced a phased decline.
ZEC, relying on sector hotspots and concentrated capital, has reached an independent new high. Short-term bullish momentum is severely overextended, and the market inevitably needs a pullback and technical correction.
Although the Martingale positions are currently deeply in floating loss, I am no longer anxious, will not blindly cut losses, nor will I add positions against the trend or operate recklessly.
Relying on the mature Martingale system's fault tolerance and automatic take-profit logic, I patiently hold positions waiting for price to revert and recover. I caught the flying knife at 76,000, and now the shorts are starting to panic
On the day the FOMC rate hike was implemented, BTC dipped to 74,960, and the group chat was full of "It's over, it's going to break 70,000."
I placed a limit order at 76,100 and caught it. There are just three reasons:
1️⃣ 76,000 is the confluence support of the daily Bollinger middle band + EMA50_1H, this is a structural level, not just a psychological barrier
2️⃣ The rate hike has been 100% priced in; the bad news being realized is actually the biggest good news
3️⃣ CoinGlass liquidation map shows that from 76,000 to 83,575, short liquidation pressure is $4.79 billion, which is 2.5 times the long exposure below
Now BTC is back to 76,500, with unrealized profit less than 1%, but what I want to say is not how much this trade made.
What I want to say is: when everyone is waiting for a "second bottom test," the market often won't give you a comfortable entry point.
Today ZEC surged 23% to a new high, the PayFi sector rose 5%, and altcoins have already started rotating. BTC is still grinding at 76,000, but funds are already looking for an exit.
How far do you think this short squeeze can go? 79,800 or straight to 82,000? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 In the past couple of days, when I checked the OKX gainers' list, UNI was visible on both the contract and spot sides. The contract side rose about 7% in 24 hours, with spot trading about the same order of magnitude and ranking near the top in trading volume; The Bitcoin market is still grinding around 76,000, is it the big players pulling it up again? Or is there really something going on in the fundamentals? I called for AI analysis to 😂 break down the layers 1. Market Situation: Not Driven by Single Announcements Over the past day, UNI peaked from around 6.2 to around 7.6, with gains once approaching just over 20%. On the derivatives side, some saw shorts swept by about $800,000, while bulls barely saw it, and funding rates even turned positive. This pattern is so large that bears are forced to add positions and overlap with momentum to chase in; it's not decided by a single late-night announcement. 2. Why it's hot: Three narratives stacked together—Fee burn tells a story. After UNIfication, some market protocol fees are used to burn UNI. In September, about 184,000 UNI tokens were burned, roughly $1.15 million. People can finally match 'Uniswap busy' with 'UNI being burned,' and the narrative gets tougher; And traffic is coming in on new chains like Robinhood Chain and Circle's Arc, where Uniswap is quickly getting traffic. Data shows that Uniswap's trading volume surged on Arc's first day of launch; Robinhood Chain has also contributed the bulk of protocol revenue recently. With more chains and stronger transactions, people are willing to reprice leading DEXsONE current price is 0.00209900, the naked K-line has consecutively closed with long lower shadows around 0.002050, indicating that selling pressure has clearly weakened and the lower buying support is quite solid. The order book shows continuous small buy orders around 0.002100, but the sell orders at 0.002150 have not been consumed yet, indicating that bulls are waiting for a volume breakout confirmation.
Just parked the car in the shade and took a couple of bites of bread, the phone's order reminder rang again, no time to look closely.
At this position, you can't chase the price higher, you can only wait for a pullback. In terms of operation, enter long directly if the pullback stays within the 0.002070 to 0.002095 range without breaking down, with a stop loss at 0.001970; breaking below means the support has failed. Take profit is first targeted at 0.002240, and if broken, then look at 0.002380. If it directly breaks above 0.002150 with volume, you can also follow with a light position, with the stop loss also set at 0.001970.
The risk-reward ratio is close to three times, worth betting once with high leverage, but the position size should not exceed 20%.
$ONE
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
@OKX星球 $FIL US SEC issues innovative exemption, approving limited tokenized stock trading! Will there be FIL next time, such as UNI??? After all, these are domestic projects with increasingly strong fundamentals.
If ZEC and UNI prove Grayscale's eye for coin selection, could FIL be the next card?
That's why I've recently refocused on FIL.
Grayscale isn't just paying attention to FIL today. It has already established a dedicated investment product for FIL, the Grayscale Filecoin Trust (FILG), meaning FIL has long been part of an asset system that institutional investors can allocate to.
More importantly, Grayscale's logic is not simply chasing hot topics, but continuously seeking crypto assets with long-term narrative and infrastructure attributes.
ZEC has privacy, UNI has DeFi, and FIL corresponds to an increasingly important direction:
Data storage and decentralized infrastructure in the AI era.
So what I truly hope for isn't 'If Grayscale buys FIL, FIL will definitely rise,' but rather that someday in the future:
Grayscale product capital growth → increased institutional attention → AI+ storage narrative reheated→ FIL fundamentals saw market repricing.
If this chain really takes shape, FIL's current valuation may only be the starting point.
So don't just focus on how much FIL is worth today.
What really deserves attention is why Grayscale has always left FIL an institutional entry point.⚡ THE MARKET DOESN’T NEED EVERYTHING TO PUMP.
The sequence matters:
$BTC finds stability.
↓
$ETH and $SOL attract volume.
↓
Risk appetite expands.
↓
Liquidity starts reaching smaller assets.
That’s the signal I’m watching.
Not green candles.
Liquidity. Volume. Follow-through.
The rotation tells the story. 📊$ZEC The direction of the main force's operation in this round is clear at a glance, with the core being a strong short squeeze rally.
From the liquidation data on the market, the largest single short liquidation reached the 7 million U level, and the total short liquidation scale in the past 24 hours exceeded 51 million U. Simply put, as long as a large number of shorts are still stubbornly holding positions, the market will continue to rise, constantly breaking stop-loss levels, driven by the momentum of short liquidations pushing the price higher.
However, this kind of rise driven by harvesting shorts has poor sustainability. At this stage, the vast majority of short positions have basically been exhausted, and the upward driving force is insufficient. At this point, I will no longer chase longs; instead, I plan to set up short positions, betting that after the main force completes the short squeeze, the market will experience a cliff-like correction.
#ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注 Received 123 regulatory questionnaires, Hedera proactively submitted a plan, but $HBAR did not appreciate it
Ridiculous, over two hours ago the UK regulator sent a questionnaire, $HBAR responded with a bearish candlestick. I'm leaning bearish here—reducing positions in the 0.0758–0.0766 rebound zone.
FCA and the Bank of England solicited opinions on wholesale market tokenization, receiving 123 feedback responses. Hedera advocates for a public permissioned network to handle securities.
If truly adopted, enterprise-level chains like Hedera would essentially get a compliance entry ticket. But it's still in the consultation phase, regulators haven't taken sides, and no funds have come in—the price moved from 0.07549 to 0.07409 after the event.
Technically bearish as well, daily MACD shows a death cross for 7 days with expanding red bars, MA7 is below MA30, multi-timeframe analysis is bearish. The BTC market cap is slightly up at 76276, so it's not the market's fault.
Resistance above: 0.0758 (15m SAR flips up) → 0.0766 (1h SAR, only bullish if reclaimed)
Support below: 0.0721 (4h SAR) → 0.0712 (Bollinger lower band, don't catch a falling knife if broken)
Strategy—reduce half of the position at 0.0758 rebound, liquidate immediately if it breaks 0.0721, switch to bullish if it recovers 0.0766.
Focus is my monitoring energy.
$HBAR $BTCBrothers, I took some time today to glance over the market and chat about ONE and NEAR. Just my personal ramblings, don't take it as trading advice.
NEAR: Relatively resistant to decline today, its trend is a bit steadier than the overall market.
Market highlights: On the short-term cycle, it’s slowly rising along the moving average, volume hasn’t exploded but there’s support holding it up; the narrow range box from the past couple of days was broken upwards, so the structure is still intact for now.
My personal feeling: The fundamentals are solid, and it can still ride the AI narrative. But there’s a heavy trapped position above, chasing at the current price risks a pullback. Better to wait for a pullback to key support and confirm it holds before considering light position trial-and-error, which feels safer.
ONE: This one is a bit tricky, watch out for spike risks.
Market highlights: Volatility has clearly increased, occasional large orders probing the market, as if some funds are testing; turnover hasn’t picked up accordingly, stuck in a hesitation phase between wanting to push up and fearing sell-offs.
My personal feeling: Its historical reputation and safety are weaker than NEAR, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable, and if the overall market weakens, it’s easy to be dragged down. Avoid leverage, treat small spot positions with stop-loss as lottery tickets, heavy positions risk getting spiked through. $SNDK No one really thinks that a rate hike will mean all the negative news has been exhausted, right?
In the short term, there will be a small rebound, making people think all the negative news is good news, then enter the market to buy the dip. But the rebound gives bears the chance to position. Look at SanDisk's capital flow: every time a few hundred million USD flows out, buying 60 million can rally 6 points, and this is still luring bulls. Japan is also planning to raise interest rates at noon today, with influence no less than the US.
Many people treat rate hikes as one-time events, and once they add them, that's it. But the real problem is—rate hikes are cyclical adjustments, not just one increase. The impact of Japan's rate hikes doesn't come from the domestic market, but from the role of the yen as the world's largest financing currency. Investors use low-interest yen to allocate US Treasuries and US stocks; Japan's rate hikes push up financing costs, triggering carry trades to close positions, and selling overseas assets to buy yen to repay debts. Asset declines trigger margin increases, forcing further sell-offs and amplifying cross-market volatility. This is the most direct way to extract liquidity.
Rate hikes do not mean all negative factors have been exhausted; they mark the beginning of a cycle correction. Taking a yen carry and closing positions is the real path for liquidity extraction.
During Japan's rate hike in August 2024, the Nikkei plunged 12% in a single day, shaking global risk assets, with the trigger being yen carry calls and unwinding. At the time, many thought it was just Japan's issue, but neither US stocks nor crypto escaped it.
Rate hikes are a cycle, not an event. SanDisk's rebound is more like a bullish entrance.
Don't mistake the rebound for a reversal, and don't take over at Yuduoli.
Personal views and do not constitute investment advice $BTC $ETH $ETH Ethereum strategy is below, you can refer to the lines to set points
Current market status
ETH current price is about 2445. It is currently in a 4-hour consolidation repair with a 1-hour pullback, and the 15-minute short-term continues to weaken.
After rebounding from around 2356 on the 4-hour chart, ETH returned to near 2440 but has not formed a clear trend yet, overall still fluctuating between about 2400—2550. The 1-hour rebound slowed significantly near 2470, price fell back below EMA5 and EMA10 and tested EMA20, MACD weakened, RSI6 dropped to around 37, indicating short-term repair momentum is fading. On the 15-minute chart, after falling back from 2483.8, highs are gradually lowering, EMA system turned to resistance, MACD remains weak.
Therefore, the current relationship is:
4-hour chart has not clearly turned bearish, but 1-hour and 15-minute charts are temporarily dominated by bears.
Main trading stance
Short, but do not chase shorts near 2445.
Currently better to wait for a failed rebound before shorting, rather than chasing the drop directly.
Regarding funds, on September 17th there was still a net inflow of about 11,400 ETH for the whole day, indicating no sustained withdrawal on a larger time scale; but recently funds have started to weaken:
* 00:00—04:00 net outflow about 800 ETH
* 05:00—06:00 slight net inflow about 85 ETH
* 06:15—06:30 net outflow again about 415 ETH
Recent 15-minute outflows significantly exceed inflows, mainly from large orders, consistent with current price weakness, can be seen as increased short-term selling pressure but insufficient to confirm so-called "main force unloading."
Key levels
2440—2428: First support zone
15-minute Bollinger lower band is about 2440, with large buy orders near 2441. There is real support here, but orders may be withdrawn, so it cannot be considered strong support alone.
If 2428 is quickly reclaimed, the pullback may still be normal repair; if it breaks 2428 and fails to reclaim for a long time, 1-hour retracement may continue to expand.
2450—2465: Main resistance zone
This area concentrates:
* 15-minute EMA20 about 2451
* 1-hour resistance about 2459
* 15-minute resistance about 2466
* 1-hour Bollinger middle band about 2450
* Obvious sell orders near 2449 and 2455
Therefore, this is currently the best area to observe shorting opportunities.
2472—2484: Bear invalidation zone
If it breaks above 2465 again and holds above 2472, the bearish logic starts to weaken; if it holds above 2484, the current judgment of "rebound ending then pushing down again" basically fails.
2400—2405: Main downside target
4-hour and 1-hour supports concentrate near 2400. If 2428 is lost, 2400 is the most realistic downside target currently.
Only if 2400 is clearly broken and rebound fails, consider the further space of 2380—2360.
Main strategy
Direction: Short
Strategy nature: Short to medium-short term, pullback trade within consolidation structure.
Preferred entry zone: 2453—2463
Wait for a failed rebound with the following signals before considering short:
* Unable to hold 2459—2465
* Spike up then fall back
* Buying pressure fails to continue pushing price
* Falls back below 2450 again
If price drops directly without rebound, do not chase shorts near 2440.
Another trigger method:
After effective break below 2428, rebound to 2428—2440 fails to reclaim.
Stop loss / invalidation
Regular structure stop loss can refer to above 2475—2485.
True invalidation condition:
Reclaim and hold above 2484.
Take profit
First target: near 2428
Second target: 2400—2405
Only after 2400 is clearly lost, look at 2380—2360.
Risk-reward
Chasing shorts directly at 2445: not worth it.
Current position is close to 2440—2428 support zone, short cycles have obvious pullback, likely to rebound first then fall.
Shorting after rebound is blocked at 2455—2465: more reasonable.
Direction, position, invalidation level, and realistic targets are clearer, risk-reward is obviously better than chasing shorts directly at current position.
Conclusion
Current market: 4-hour consolidation repair, 1-hour rebound weakening, 15-minute short-term bearish bias.
Main direction: Short.
Current position: Do not chase shorts.
Prefer to wait for failed rebound at 2453—2465 before shorting, or wait for break below 2428 and failed rebound to follow.
Reclaim and hold above 2484, bearish logic invalid.
Downside first look at 2428 → 2400. $ZEC $BTC $BTC #What is the impact of the Fed's rate hike on cryptocurrencies# Previously, people always said that whenever the Fed raises rates, cryptocurrencies would collectively plunge. This time, the market completely shattered the old beliefs of veteran investors.
This time, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, pushing the rate range to 3.75%-4%. Everyone was holding their breath, but Bitcoin instead touched $76,621, up 0.88% in 24 hours; Ethereum rose 1.1% to $2,444; even Zcash, which was previously lukewarm, surged 23% in 24 hours to $1,369.
The core reason is not the rate hike itself, but the signal revealed by the dot plot: the median policy rate for the end of 2026 and 2027 is stuck at 4.1%, which clearly tells the market that after this hike, the Fed will not aggressively tighten further. The "long-term high interest rate" cloud hanging over all risk assets has directly dissipated. Not only did crypto rise, but Nasdaq futures, gold, and silver also rose in sync.
The most interesting this time is the abnormal movement of Zcash. Paradigm's founder just endorsed it as a privacy complement to Bitcoin, combined with the community recently passing a speed-up proposal, which directly boosted the privacy sector, making this a fully unexpected rally.Brothers, today's post-market move really exceeded expectations. After the 25bp rate hike was implemented, the market didn't drop much; instead, $BTC and $ETH both recovered and even surged upward. The core reason is that the market had already priced in the rate hike expectation in advance, so when it actually happened, it became a "bad news already priced in" scenario, which prevented selling pressure from expanding further.
Additionally, risk sentiment in the US stock market improved today, combined with easing pressure from oil prices and long-term US Treasury yields, which also provided some support for BTC and ETH.
Therefore, this rally is not because the rate hike turned into good news, but rather driven by the fulfillment of expectations, panic release, and risk sentiment recovery together. BTC has returned to around 76,000, and ETH has recovered to around 2,450, indicating decent support on the downside.
Summary: The short-term market is clearly stronger than before the rate hike, but it still looks more like a recovery rally rather than a direct trend reversal. Going forward, the key levels to watch are BTC at 75,000 and ETH at 2,400. If these hold, there is room for further recovery; if the rally lacks support after the surge, a pullback should still be guarded against.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ SanDisk has dropped from 1806 → 1507 and is now stuck around 1536. The setup is interesting because almost everything is compressed: 5 moving averages → tangled around 1536 SAR → above price near 1568 RSI → 39–44 J → ~46 That tells me one thing: The market is waiting for expansion. Above 1568 → potential momentum shift. Below 1507 → bearish structure remains intact. And with a new 2x Long ETF available, traders need to remember: A leveraged product gives you more exposure. It does NOT give you c