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$BNB — Still holding up better than most. Support: 700 / 685 Resistance: 730 / 760 Above 700, the structure remains range-bound. Lose 700, and the correction could accelerate. I’d rather hold the core than chase a breakout. $OKB — Still trapped between 108.5–116. Support: 108.5 / 105 Resistance: 116 / 120 The long-term X Layer narrative remains, but short-term price action is still tied to overall risk appetite. Before FOMC, patience > leverage. $HYPE — Highest beta, highest leverage sensitivityBTC and ETH Are Telling Different Parts of the Story
$BTC is still the market’s main liquidity signal. $ETH, meanwhile, shows whether that liquidity is spreading into the broader ecosystem.
When BTC holds its structure while ETH starts gaining strength with improving volume, market breadth is getting healthier. If ETH keeps lagging despite BTC strength, that tells a different story.
The next thing I’d track is ETH relative strength against BTC.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 LSK volatility 46.2%, dumped yesterday and pulled back today
$LSK is now 0.33 USDT, 24h +21.7%. The coin that took a hit yesterday is back to the top of the gainers list today.
24h low 0.2421, high 0.3674, volatility 46.2%, nearly half the range up and down in one day; trading volume 4.15 million USDT, ranked 35th in the USDT market, volume still not large. 7-day change +199.5%.
In the same period, $SOL 97.27 USDT, 24h -3.8%, $ZEC 1,157.23 USDT, 24h +1.2%, total market cap down 5% in 24h, LSK is moving completely on its own trend.
US prosecutors today charged a former Robinhood engineer for trading tokens before their official listing. The market is digesting this regulatory news, while LSK is purely a capital game.
Yesterday, the analyst just wrote about its dump, and today it pulled back. The K-line shows two big wicks up and down, but volume only ranks 35th. This kind of pullback is generally not chased by the analyst.
Don’t be fooled by the +21.7% gain, for a coin with 46.2% volatility, position sizing should be based on the worst wick. BTC and OKB Are Testing Different Layers of Demand
$BTC gives the broader market its liquidity direction, while $OKB reflects demand within the OKX ecosystem.
If BTC remains stable and OKB starts attracting stronger volume, that could show capital is moving beyond the market benchmark. But if OKB rallies without participation, the move deserves more caution.
The signal I’d track next: BTC stability + OKB volume confirmation.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 Crazy, crazy, everyone else is falling, but $ZEC still wants to rise. Are you tougher than others' bones??
BTC is down, ETH is down, the whole market is as green as a vegetable patch, yet ZEC, this monster coin, stubbornly pushes up against the trend, completely ignoring the flood outside. Looking at its bullish candle, I’m both angry and amused. Everyone else is diving, and you’re the only one pole vaulting?
Look at the long-short ratio: shorts account for as much as 73%, longs only 27%, retail shorts are extremely crowded. It’s precisely at times like this that you need to be careful—if the market falls but it doesn’t, either there’s a real whale supporting the price to accumulate, or it’s the last bull trap before a dump. If it can hold above the previous high, then it’s really tough; if it can’t break through, the correction will be faster than anyone else.
My FIL short position is making me drool, opened at 1.0125, current price 0.8079, +60% profit firmly in hand. I’ve suffered losses stubbornly holding ZEC before, almost liquidated from sleepless nights, now I’ve learned—don’t go against the market, and don’t get emotionally attached to monster coins.
Ladies, remember this: the harder it rises, the stronger it’s not necessarily; it might just be holding on. Don’t rush in to catch the red candle, set your stop loss well, surviving longer means more profit. Do you think ZEC is really strong or just a bull trap? Let’s chat in the comments!🧋💀
$BTC
$ETH
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Even after the spot market is on Niulai, some big players still spend about a million USD to buy—what does this reflect? Let's take a look at the data! September 16, 2026 #牛来 Data changes for top 40 holding addresses: Binance: 37 million inflows; gate1: outflows of 1.1 million tokens; gate5: outflows of 3 million tokens; mexc: outflows of 1.6 million tokens. Top 40 new entrants: 6 people in total, 4 transferring in, 1 increasing position, 1 person rising normally Top 40 people exiting: 6 in total, 4 transferring out of exchanges, 1 transferring accounts, 1 slightly reducing position; Top 40 increases: 2 people, 2 transfers in; Top 40 reduce positions: 4 in total, 3 reduce positions, One person transferred out, $Niulai Daily Highlights: Six new users joined the top 40 addresses, and four of them came from Binance. But the one who added positions on-chain was very strong, adding $850,000. When it dropped out of the top 40 addresses, only one person slightly reduced their position on-chain, while the rest moved to Binance. Only two people added positions in the top 40, and both transferred from Binance. No increase was seen on-chain. The four people who reduced positions in the top 40 sold a rough sum of about $600,000 in single kills. Also, for some reason, Binance's inflows are still so large. It's been some time since spot trading took some time. Some big players have spent nearly $1 million on-chain to buy in spot trading, proving that the chain volatility is still quite high. Overall, the market remains intact and appears relatively healthy. However, the data shows a strong cautious aspect, both insiders and outsiders are presentLast night, BTC crashed from 79,500 down to 74,900.
It pierced 75,000, spiked down, then recovered. Now struggling around 75,400.
Liquidations totaled $665 million.
This is not a correction. This is a triple kill.
First, face reality, don’t dream.
Kill one: Oil prices are crazy. Brent crude surpassed $106, once nearing $109.8 intraday. Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was bombed, cutting off a lifeline transporting 7 million barrels per day; Yanbu port inventories only last 5 to 7 days. At Hormuz, last weekend daily vessel traffic dropped to single digits. Bernstein warns oil prices could surge to $120-$150.
Kill two: The Fed is hiking rates. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, core CPI 0.3%, exceeding expectations. Market pricing for a 25 basis point hike in September jumped from 70% to nearly 90%. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.012% intraday, the highest since October 2023. JPMorgan even raised its 2026 rate hike forecast to two hikes.
Kill three: The CLARITY Act is dead. Senate procedural vote 49-50, not even close to the 60-vote threshold. Coinbase CEO Armstrong stated "we can’t wait for Congress anymore," shifting efforts to SEC/CFTC level.
Under these three kills, those fantasizing about a V-shaped reversal, wake up.
Key price levels, remember these numbers.
First support: $76,000. The low on September 10 touched 76,676 and held temporarily; yesterday’s spike to 74,900 was recovered. This is the current critical bull-bear dividing line.
Second support: $73,000-$74,000. The daily candle Fibonacci 78.6% level is at 72,620, the next real defense zone. If panic intensifies after CPI, this will be tested.
First resistance: $76,000-$76,300. A dense short-term sell zone, the first hurdle on a rebound.
Second resistance: $77,600. Only breaking this can we breathe easier.
Trend confirmation: $82,000. Only a daily close above 82,000 accompanied by positive ETF inflows signals a trend reversal. Yesterday ETFs saw a net outflow of $450 million, with Fidelity alone pulling $215 million. Don’t rush to call a bull market.
Position management, here’s the play.
Spot: Keep your base holdings, don’t add leverage at this level. If 76,000 is repeatedly tested but not broken, small additions are possible. But remember—the Fear & Greed Index just dropped from 69 to 51, shifting from "greed" to "neutral," panic selling is not fully released yet.
Futures:
→ Light long positions near 76,000 with stop loss below 74,500. The spike and recovery indicate funds are supporting below.
→ If it rebounds to 80,000-82,000, prioritize reducing positions rather than adding. That’s a resistance zone, not a breakout zone.
Altcoins: In an environment of high oil prices and stablecoin contraction, altcoin liquidity will be siphoned by BTC. BTC dominance is 58.54%, funds are not flowing into altcoins. Avoid heavy positions in low-liquidity altcoins at this stage.
The biggest risk you might have missed.
The failure of the CLARITY Act is no small matter. It means regulatory uncertainty will suppress institutional entry pace for a longer time. This marks a watershed from "enforcement-driven" to "rule-driven," but the tug-of-war over detailed revisions will last a long time.
In other words: no policy catalysts in the short term.
What to watch next? The Fed’s statement this week. With 87% of rate hike pricing locked in, the real focus is whether the statement frames this move as a "one-off hedge" or the "start of a new tightening cycle."
If the latter, 73,000 may not be the bottom.
$BTC $BZ $CL #中东能源风险推高油价 BNB Is Being Tested Beyond the Chart
$BNB has a deeper signal than price momentum: whether activity across its ecosystem can keep generating real demand.
When volume, liquidity and network usage expand together, price strength has more substance behind it. If price moves while participation dries up, the momentum becomes easier to lose.
The next thing I’d watch is BNB volume versus network activity.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates "Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue 44 Review of Issue 43: The short position on BTC at 79200-79800 ultimately reached the third target near 75000, and the short on ETH at 2565-2600 also touched the 2357 level last night. This round of short positions again largely met expectations. Next, I will share my views on Issue 44. Yesterday, the US Senate failed to advance the "CLARITY Act," causing Bitcoin to drop to around 74900 and Ethereum to nearly 2357 at its lowest, clearly impacting market risk appetite. Today's biggest risk is not in the market itself but the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tonight and the subsequent monetary policy press conference. Market pricing clearly leans toward a rate hike at this meeting. Therefore, today's trading must pay attention to this: The real market focus may not be "whether to hike rates," but "what the Fed says after the hike." If the statement and press conference signal a tightening bias, indicating possible continued rate hikes, while US Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen, then BTC and ETH may face significant resistance on any rebound. Conversely, if the market has fully priced in rate changes and the Fed's subsequent stance is less hawkish than expected, or even shows improved liquidity expectations, then BTC and ETH, which have already fallen, could see a rapid rebound. This is why today is not suitable for going all-in on any direction at the current position. Jiang Feng personally prefers to focus on shorting at rebound highs! For specific strategies, refer to the resistance levels above. Yesterday, we reviewed the upward trend: when prices are rising, long positions follow the price, and short positions bear pressure. Today, let's flip the picture—when prices start to fall, which side is the trend leader?
To give you a conclusion: when the price falls, a short position follows the price and is called a trend; a long position is the side bearing pressure, called a contrarian trend. The position structure hasn't changed; what changes is the price direction—when the direction changes, both the favorable and counter-trend positions will swap.
This article discusses methods for judging trend-following and counter-trend trends in both long and short directions, and does not suggest that ordinary users set or modify platform parameters themselves. The strategy structure and parameters are part of the platform's preset rules. Ordinary users can operate according to default parameters, usually only needing to adjust their first order and leverage according to their own account conditions. 1. Position relationships in downward markets
When the price moves downward, the short position direction matches the price movement, and the floating profit and loss change in a favorable direction, following the price path; The long position direction is opposite to the price movement; each time the price goes down, the floating loss on this path increases by a bit, and the conditions for adding positions may be triggered sequentially, with the path developing to deeper levels.
Comparing with yesterday's rally, it's clearer: for the same account with both long and short openings, when the price rises, the pressure is on short positions; when the price falls, the pressure is on long positions. The two paths are always the same two paths; what changes is their relative relationship with the price direction.
2. How the exchange occurs
Here, it's important to grasp a key point: following or going against the trend is not a fixed label for a single side's position, but rather the path and price📂 20U Live Trading Record 066
💰 Principal: 20U
📉 Profit on this trade: Currently no position
✅ Total profit: +38U
📌 Current position: No position
Continuing to observe the capital flow on three chains
1. A certain whale withdrew 50,000 $ETH from Binance and immediately staked them
According to The Data Nerd monitoring, a whale address held 40,000 ETH a week ago, and 2 hours ago withdrew 50,000 ETH from Binance, worth about $93.6 million, and immediately staked after withdrawal. The total holding increased to 90,000 ETH
Withdrawing from the exchange and staking immediately without holding them in hand. This action itself shows the attitude
2. $BTC ETF had a net outflow of $450 million yesterday
SoSoValue data shows that Fidelity's FBTC had a single-day net outflow of $215 million, ranking first, and BlackRock's IBIT had a net outflow of $162 million. But looking at the longer term, IBIT has accumulated an increase of $1.08 billion worth of BTC in the past 20 days, while GBTC sold off $254.7 million in the same period. Overall there is an outflow, but funds are migrating internally from old trusts to new ETFs
3. $SOL fell below 100, whales are selling.
SOL current price is $96.76, down 3.68% in 4 hours. Whale AiMFH9 unstaked 53,194 SOL and sold all at $233 each, profiting about $3.2 million
At the same time, ETH whales are withdrawing and staking, and BTC ETF funds are migrating internally Overnight, the head of Anthropic publicly wrote that the expansion speed of AI has exceeded safe limits, and Elon Musk immediately agreed, with funds first withdrawing from the storage sector. On Monday, $SNDK fell nearly 5 points in a single day, hitting as low as around 8 points intraday. This seems more like a repositioning of holdings regarding whether the "computing power narrative" will continue, rather than a sudden change in the company's fundamentals. SanDisk just spun off from Western Digital in February this year, mainly operating NAND flash and solid-state drives. Last fiscal year, revenue exceeded $20 billion, doubling growth, with data centers contributing nearly $3 billion in a single quarter, about one-third of the company, driven by AI training and inference demand. Thus, the market began to ask: if new models are more memory-efficient, will storage demand be compressed; if safety concerns cause big companies to slow down data center construction, will order momentum loosen accordingly? These questions currently have no answers, and the boundary between a shakeout and bubble bursting is hard to distinguish. For the crypto market, sentiment around AI, DePIN, and computing power tokens often follows the US tech stock chain. If the latter continues to weaken, $FET, $RNDR, $TAO, and others may also come under pressure simultaneously. Attention should be paid to linkage rather than isolated judgment. Risk warning: The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your positions independently. Sudden adjustment in the crypto circle🔥
BTC dropped to 75,000-76,000, ETH fell below 2400, nearly 120,000 people liquidated, and $670 million in funds were cleared.
Trigger: The US CLARITY crypto bill procedural vote failed to reach 60 votes, regulatory benefits fell through. Coupled with the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 5%, high oil prices, and the approaching Federal Reserve meeting, the market shifted from easing expectations to high-rate risk aversion.
Logic: The crypto circle is a high beta risk asset, short-term driven by macro and US regulatory news.
Key levels: BTC must hold 75,000, ETH must hold 2380 to have a chance of rebound.
If Powell leans hawkish, altcoins will continue deleveraging; if dovish, oversold recovery will come.
Short-term avoid catching a falling knife, wait for the rate decision, deleveraging, then watch the trends of major coins and ETF funds.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#中东能源风险推高油价
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #中东能源风险推高油价
The energy risk in the Middle East continues to escalate, pushing oil prices to new highs again.
The market is no longer worried about a single oil field or a single shipping route, but about the entire Middle East energy supply chain facing multiple shocks.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains very sluggish; the latest data shows that only 4 vessels passed on Tuesday, far below the average of the past 10 days. Meanwhile, the east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia is damaged, affecting loading at Yanbu port. 
This means that the Saudi backup export route, which could bypass Hormuz, is now also restricted.
The result is:
Hormuz blocked
→ Saudi oil pipeline shutdown
→ Increased shipping risk in the Red Sea
→ Reduced global crude oil supply flexibility
→ Continued expansion of oil price risk premium.
Currently, Brent crude remains near $107, and WTI stays above $100. 
What’s more troubling is that the market is now starting to worry that supply disruptions could last for weeks.
If the Saudi pipeline cannot be restored in the short term and navigation through Hormuz cannot fully normalize, the crude oil market will face not a one-time emotional shock but a sustained supply gap.
This is especially sensitive for U.S. inflation.
Crude oil ↑
→ Gasoline, diesel ↑
→ Transportation costs ↑
→ Business costs ↑
→ Commodity prices ↑
→ CPI pressure ↑
→ Fed’s policy space constrained.
This is the most concerning aspect of the current oil price rise.
Because the market has just experienced stronger-than-expected PPI and CPI and the Fed’s renewed hawkish shift, if energy prices remain high, inflation could again become a key variable suppressing risk assets.
For BTC, the logic is also clear:
Sustained oil price rise → Inflation expectations heat up → U.S. Treasury yields remain high → Dollar strengthens → BTC liquidity under pressure.
Of course, the recent unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories has provided some buffer for oil prices, indicating that the supply shock has not fully translated into a spot market meltdown. 
So what really deserves attention next is not how much oil prices rise in a day, but:
① Whether Hormuz can resume normal navigation;
② When the Saudi east-west pipeline will be restored;
③ Whether Red Sea shipping risks will continue to expand;
④ Whether Brent can hold above $110 long-term;
⑤ Whether high oil prices will again push up U.S. core inflation.
In short: Middle East energy risk is shifting from an "oil price market" to an "inflation market." If supply disruptions persist, the next to be pressured may not only be crude oil but also global interest rates and risk assets. $BTC $ARB is slightly bullish in the short term, but don't chase it yet. The hardest part of ARB's rise is resisting the urge to prove yourself halfway up the mountain. Let's talk again after a stable pullback. Trading plan: Slightly bullish short term, but only trade on pullback confirmation or breakout confirmation. Trading advice: Consider buying after a pullback stabilizes between 0.1482–0.152; if it strengthens directly, follow after it breaks above 0.1596. Set stop loss at 0.146, take profit first at 0.1721, then at 0.1832. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC Recap. The known lower boundary of the consolidation zone is 7.6. Yesterday, after the first dip to grab liquidity, it quickly rebounded to 7.74. After the early morning bill vote, it fell below 7.6 again. Back to the chart. Currently, the 4-hour level is still relatively weak. The 7.6 liquidity grab point has become resistance at the 4-hour level. Then 7.73-7.81-7.96. After the first break below 7.6 yesterday, I entered the market as planned. The logic is to play the 7.6-8.25 consolidation zone~ Stop loss is around 7.4. In chart 2, 7.4 was previously a daily-level support/resistance flip zone. If it breaks below here, any long position must stop loss because the area below is quite empty. Subsequent support is 7.25-7. To summarize, my personal view as in the past week is that this is a high risk-reward position worth playing the long side. I am subjectively bullish and already in the position~ There is also a rate decision meeting early morning. If worried about large volatility or extreme moves, you can reduce position size or wait until tomorrow or next week after the market digests the rate hike—either stabilizing above 7.6 consolidation zone or breaking below 7.4—then make the next play. Trading advice: For intraday or smaller timeframes, with stop loss at last night’s spike tip, watch if 7.6 can be reclaimed and held. The target above is near 7.73 at the 4-hour level. Trading the consolidation zone, set stop loss properly. Reclaiming above 7.73 can push to breakeven. Above 7.8 can start taking profits in batches. Don’t mix different timeframes and perspectives~ Position size according to stop loss. Trade in a way that doesn’t affect your well-being.Brothers, get up. I took a quick look at the market. To be honest, I don't really think we'll see a straight one-sided trend today. Most likely, it will be a weak oscillation, repeatedly shaking people out before the news comes out.
There were several sharp drops earlier, and you can indeed see on the K-line that someone is buying, but the rebounds are weak and soft. It's obvious the bulls are just defending the market, not truly reversing the trend yet. Today, I'm watching only one position for $BTC — 75,000, and for $ETH, the range is 2350 to 2400.
The biggest uncertainty today is the FOMC tonight. The market has basically priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, with the probability almost reaching 90%. Plus, with US Treasury yields breaking 5%, oil prices staying high, and the US stock market under pressure, pre-market funds definitely won't move recklessly.
My own judgment is: the morning session will most likely be weak and oscillating, with possibly a small rebound, but any upward surge will likely be hammered back down. Unless BTC retakes 77,000 and ETH holds above 2400 steadily, I don't think the buying power has truly returned. Conversely, if volume increases and new lows are hit, don't just see it as a normal shakeout; it means the market is still pre-trading hawkish expectations.
To put it simply, don't guess the direction today. Just watch if the K-line can stop falling. The real big move will most likely wait until the news is released tonight.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 Crypto was supposed to be an alternative to the traditional financial system where the 'little guy' stands a chance, but in practice, it has turned into a mirror image of that very system—only with much less legal regulation and an even more brutal dominance of big capital. $TRUMP I didn’t make any judgment, just held on a bit longer, didn’t expect it to really show respect.
During the repeated fluctuations in the session, TRUMP’s every rally fell just short, the selling pressure on TRUMP was strong, and the trading volume was low. I didn’t chase the long, just warned that if it can’t rise, go short, don’t catch a falling knife.
From 1.963 down to 1.875, the short position yield was +224.14%, the timing was spot on.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection, let the profit run with further drops, and don’t panic on rebounds.
For stocks you’re not confident in, a glance keeps you sober, buying a lot is foolish. Have a strategy before the market, discipline during, and reflection after. If you haven’t gotten in yet, listen to me, now is not the time to rush, there will be more opportunities later.
$LAB $SOL Hidden Risks in Accumulation｜$HYPE Pullback and Consolidation, Beware of $1.2 Billion Unlock at Month-End💣
$HYPE
Since reaching a high of 89.60 on September 6, $HYPE has been adjusting for 10 consecutive days📉, currently priced at 77.2; down 3.9% in 24 hours, with a 7-day retracement exceeding 6%. After intraday high of 80.41, upward momentum weakened, bulls entering consolidation.
✅ Fundamental Support Remains
$75-80 is the core defense range for bulls.
Previous large unlocks accounted for only 4.4% token claims, with no team sell-off; the project team continues to support the price, burning $2.08 million tokens in 24h, with a total buyback of $379 million this year; Hyperliquid Strategies increased holdings by $29.65 million in a single day, institutions continue to accumulate.
💣 Core Risk Warning
On September 29, approximately $1.2 billion will be unlocked, 47% held internally, posing the biggest potential selling pressure risk at this stage.
📊 Technical Pattern
4-hour MACD oscillates near zero line with consolidation, bulls and bears balanced, the market is only in a pullback accumulation phase, no clear direction chosen yet.
🔮 Market Outlook
With market sentiment recovery and FOMC conclusion, a rebound to 82-85 is expected due to high elasticity;
If the $75 support is effectively broken, the retracement level will expand, targeting the $70 range.
💡 Trading Strategy
Short-term range between $75.5-80, stop loss set at $75.
Light positions can be taken to speculate on rebounds before unlock; gradually reduce positions approaching 9/29 to avoid impact from unlock selling pressure. A quick recap of yesterday
Long positions
1. No bullish engulfing signal at 2460, so abandoned the trade
2. At 2410, a pin bar appeared on the chart signaling a short-term long; reduced position after, kept the base position at break-even stop loss
Short positions
1. Set one condition: if it breaks below 2460 and fails to rebound above 2460, decisively short 🈳; reduce position at 2410, keep flexible base position
Set the plan, follow the conditions set in the plan;
When conditions are met, manually execute your plan;
To take profits, you have to be bold; to take losses, stand firm
Only trade real 🫵Two former engineers at Robinhood have been charged by U.S. federal prosecutors with commodity fraud and wire fraud. Prosecutors allege that before Robinhood Crypto announced the launch of new tokens, they used non-public information to trade related assets on Hyperliquid perpetual contracts; each profited over $50,000.
Perpetual contracts do not require actual token ownership; the information first affects the prices and positions in the leveraged market. Robinhood stated it has investigated and reported to law enforcement and regulatory agencies, maintaining a zero-tolerance policy for insider trading. For ordinary users, the key issue is not just "who knew first," but whether listing information can enter tradable markets before public announcement. The case is currently at the indictment stage, and final responsibility will be determined through judicial procedures.
#RobinhoodSeptember Summary: 15 days, 12 days with profits taken, 3 days with losses cut. Overall, the pace this month was fairly steady, but today's market really caught many off guard.
Market Situation: Regulatory cold shower, sentiment immediately collapsed
The procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold, ending in a 50:50 tie, so it cannot enter formal review in the short term. Once the news broke, the crypto market promptly dropped. Coinbase closed down 10.13%, Circle even worse, down 11.41%. BTC dropped to 75805, down 2.69% in 24 hours, ETH fell deeper to 2401, down 4.48%. In short, regulatory progress was blocked, and short-term sentiment fled first.
News: Whales are buying, ETFs are selling, two camps opposing each other
Here's the interesting part. Last week, Strive bought 469 BTC at an average price of $77,954, pushing their total holdings over 25,000 BTC. Bitmine was even more aggressive, increasing their ETH holdings by 27,180 in a single week, now holding about 4.9% of the global circulating supply. ETFs are flowing out, treasury companies are entering, two camps opposing each other. Who is right or wrong, time will tell.
Tonight is the real showdown
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and dot plot, followed by a press conference by Powell at 2:30 AM. The market is pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Deutsche Bank said something very key: if the Fed ultimately does not raise rates, it will be the "biggest dovish surprise" at a routine policy meeting since 1994. To translate: the hike itself is not the main point, the hawkishness of the dot plot is. No hike could trigger a rebound; a hike with a mild dot plot could give risk assets some breathing room; the worst case is a hike combined with a significant upward revision in the dot plot—that's the real knife.
Operational advice in one sentence: before the decision, don't heavily bet on direction. Both bulls and bears are waiting for that number, volatility could spike anytime. The direction is given by the Fed, not chosen by the market itself.
What do you think—will there be a rate hike tonight, or an unexpected pause? Discuss in the comments. $BTC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #OKX百万规划师 What do you think about when you are losing continuously?
"The next trade will definitely make a profit" "One more trade and I'll break even" — I've had these thoughts, and then lost 200,000U. The most dangerous thing during continuous losses is not the money, but the mindset: you start revenge trading, opening bigger positions and setting wider stop losses.
My solution: after 2 consecutive losses, force yourself to stop. Close the software, go downstairs for a walk, and come back when you are calm. If you still feel itchy the next day, stop for another day.
Currently BTC75622, bearish bias. My rule: if I hit stop loss twice today, I won't trade anymore today and will wait until tomorrow. Operation: light short positions above 77000, try long positions if 74896 stabilizes, 5000U per trade, always with stop loss, no holding losing positions.
Remember: when losing continuously, stopping is winning. $BTC #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 The $ZEC NU7 voting has ended for some time, with the ETF and privacy narratives still ongoing, and high-level chips starting to change hands repeatedly. Overall, it is in a state of governance + ETF + high leverage triple narrative overlay, which makes the price very elastic, while any weakening of these three lines may cause rapid price fluctuations. Ajian's observation:
Holding $1,100 indicates that the pullback is still controllable
Breaking through $1,158 is the only chance to retest $1,200
Falling below $1,100, first watch if funds are withdrawing from the privacy sector Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE top accounts are more long, position distribution is more short: top accounts long-short ratio 1.849, top positions long-short ratio 0.758; whole market accounts long-short ratio 4.539; price up 0.07%, position amount change -0.033%.
$SUI top accounts and top positions are both more short: top accounts long-short ratio 0.863, top positions long-short ratio 0.748; whole market accounts long-short ratio 3.481; price up 0.04%, position amount change +0.04%. The account number structure and position distribution of the top group are aligned.
$SNDK top accounts are more long, position distribution is more short: top accounts long-short ratio 1.355, top positions long-short ratio 0.746; whole market accounts long-short ratio 2.962; price up 0.09%, position amount change -0.0003%.
DOGE, SNDK: The side with account number dominance is opposite to the side with position dominance, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
DOGE, SUI, SNDK: The whole market account structure is more long, which also differs from the top position bias.Late at night, looking at the BTC75622 chart, I asked myself: Are you really ready to break even?
Being ready means accepting losses, accepting waiting, accepting imperfection. I used to think breaking even was about going all in at once, but now I know breaking even comes from small wins one by one, controlling risk, and time.
My small goal for myself: not losing money every day is a victory. Each trade 5000U, always with a stop loss, no holding losing positions, no action if the position isn't right.
Tomorrow's plan: try short above 77000, try long if 74896 holds steady.
Good night, market. See you tomorrow. $BTC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ In October 1987, Greenspan had been Federal Reserve Chairman for only three months. To establish anti-inflation credibility, he pushed for interest rate hikes, with the market expecting further tightening. Combined with rising long-term interest rates, this ultimately triggered the Black Monday stock market crash. On that day, the Dow plunged 22%, causing a global market chain collapse. The core mechanism was clear: a new chairman setting a tough tone, rapidly rising interest rates, and fragile high stock market valuations—these three factors resonated to create a systemic shock. Today's situation is highly similar. Since Chairman Powell took office, he has clearly emphasized price stability as a priority, and the market has heavily priced in a rate hike this week. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has risen to around 5%, a new high since 2023; Brent crude oil is approaching $108, and WTI has stabilized above $103. Yet the stock market still relies on valuations related to artificial intelligence for support. The lesson from 1987 is evident here: when the central bank prioritizes rebuilding credibility while the market remains immersed in a growth narrative, adjustments often erupt in a nonlinear fashion. The current simultaneous rise in interest rates and oil prices is a modern version of this historical script.The regulatory bill did not pass the procedural vote; the market's real concern is "when the rules will be implemented" rather than the vote itself. Currently, $BTC is around 75,833 and $ETH around 2,403, still near the daily lows, indicating that capital is first pricing in policy uncertainty. If the FOMC wording is dovish and Congress restarts negotiations, a rebound from the lows will depend on spot volume; if the dollar and yields continue to rise, the rebound may just be short covering. Watch whether BTC at 75,000, ETH/BTC, and liquidation volumes improve simultaneously.Japan's 10-year government bond yield has hit 3% for the first time in thirty years, a figure more worth watching than the US breaking 5%.
Global long-term interest rates are rising in sync; the US is not an exception. Malek's explanation is that the market is repricing "lending money for ten years," rather than indicating a problem with the US economy. If this judgment holds, it means the pressure comes from the supply side of funds, not the growth side.
Following the chain, rising long-term rates first suppress the most expensive assets' valuations, then transmit to highly leveraged positions. Who is passive is still unclear because one piece of evidence is missing: whether Japanese funds are truly flowing back home.
The observation point is whether the Japanese bond yield can hold above 3%. If it falls back, this global synchronized narrative will be discounted.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#10年期美债收益率突破5% #贝森特听证释放多重信号 $ETH 🧭 LIQUIDITY LEADS. PRICE FOLLOWS.
If CLARITY gets moving, I’ll be watching for five signs that the market is actually backing the breakout:
→ Spot inflows picking up
→ Trading volume expanding
→ Open interest rising without excessive leverage
→ Relative strength improving
→ Price holding the breakout instead of immediately fading
₿ $BTC → primary liquidity magnet
◆ $ETH → needs clearer capital rotation
⚡ $LIT → higher-beta opportunity only if liquidity expands
#BTC #ETH #LIT #DailyOrbitThe bill was just a few steps away from passing, and $BTC dropped directly to around 75,000 yuan, with another batch of long positions cleared.
What really angered people wasn't this vote; it happened to coincide with the Federal Reserve's meeting. Regulation and interest rates were squeezed together in the same week, leaving positions without even a chance to catch their breath.
$ETH Target 2400, $SOL Target 100—these positions should be watched tonight.
But I'm not in a hurry to follow in and be bearish. After all the negative news is laid out, whether the price can still crash is more useful than the news itself. If 75,000 can't hold and volume increases, then keep looking down; If it holds and slowly pulls back, it means the panic buying may have mostly been released.
So now, with both bull and bear hype in the industry, who is really watching the handicap?
#本周FOMC揭晓, can rate hikes be implemented?
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 #BTC财库优先股融资升温 $BTC $ETH Brothers, don't rush to bottom buy!!!
I know the drop is severe, and it's normal to be itchy-handed. But whether this is the bottom is really uncertain. Want to pull it up? Not that fast.
Don't chase shorts, and don't rush to bottom buy either. Shorting at low levels is riskier than chasing highs; better not to trade than to gamble on that razor-edge money.
Wait for the daily chart to fluctuate again, when it can't fall further, then consider entering. Opportunities are reserved for those with patience; everyone understands the principle, but few actually do it.
Let's talk about interest rate hikes tonight. The market is crazily betting that the Fed will raise rates, with the probability over 90%. But I still say: Trump's midterm elections are just around the corner, wouldn't raising rates now be rubbing salt in voters' wounds? Walsh was pushed up by him personally; would he really dare to go against him now? I don't quite believe it.
Inflation hasn't improved, rate cuts are out of the question, so the smartest move is to hold steady and let the market speculate on rate hike expectations. No need to actually act to suppress inflation, and the election situation is also preserved. If they really raise rates, it will have to wait until after the election.
So my judgment: don't be led by panic. If they really don't raise rates tonight, gold will likely give you a chance for a retaliatory pullback. Those who can endure will reap the rewards.
Control your hands, don't open positions lightly. #黄金 #BTC #美联储 #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Can I survive tonight?
Honestly 🥹
I'm not thinking about making money anymore.
I just want to live until tomorrow.
Last night I got up at midnight to top up on C2C.
I'm really exhausted.
$ETH trapped me from 2480 all the way down to 2400.
Now watching it sideways here,
I start to fantasize again.
Maybe it finally can't fall any further.
Can a big bullish candle tonight pull me back?
I even want to open another long position.
But I quietly pulled my hand back.
The real explosion point tonight is at 2 AM.
The market pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike is already over 90%.
All this data is pushing the Fed to be hawkish.
I still think a rate hike is not certain.
But the current data definitely isn't on my side.
If unexpectedly no hike happens,
shorts might collectively cover.
If there is a hike but the speech isn't that hawkish,
there might be a spike down first then a rebound.
The worst is if after the hike they continue hawkish,
then risk assets will have to take another hit.
—
$ETH selling pressure has temporarily eased,
but sideways movement doesn't mean a reversal.
What I fear most tonight is getting stopped out first by a sweep,
then $SNDK pulling up sharply from the same spot.
Also, last night's drop wasn't just a dump by dog whales.
The US crypto regulatory bill failed to pass.
Over $570 million long positions were liquidated across the market.
ETH fell so sharply
mainly due to news combined with high leverage liquidations.
Surviving tonight
is more important than anything.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 Japan's 10-year government bond yield has exceeded 3% for the first time in 30 years, while the US 10-year yield has surpassed 5%.
Putting these two events together, market makers probably just want to sigh.
First question: Is this a problem unique to the US? No. Global interest rates are rising together; no one can pretend to be innocent.
Second question: So why is money still flowing into US Treasuries? Because other places are even more risky.
Third question: What about crypto? With interest rates at 5%, risk-free returns are more attractive than many crypto stories, so market makers' willingness to provide liquidity will only tighten.
So don't rush to interpret this as a major signal.
The real signal to wait for is—when global long-term yields stop rising in sync, that will be the time risk assets can catch a breath.
Now? Market makers are too lazy to move.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#10年期美债收益率突破5% #贝森特听证释放多重信号 $HYPE assuming we activate alpenglow after 200ms, solana will have an instant +6-7% or so in its block limits from not having votes take up blockspace
votes are actually a fairly large amount of the data in turbine as well so that will go away as well.
in other words, IBRL
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 The name in the crypto circle is getting more and more ridiculous. $USELESS is rising more joyfully than anyone else, truly proving the saying: the weirder the name, the faster it rises.
First, let's talk about $USELESS. The price surged to $0.22771, with a daily increase of 11.51%. The most shocking part is the net inflow data—an astonishing $52,837,000! You should know its total daily trading volume is only $68,608,000. What does this mean? It means off-exchange funds are pouring in blindly, and the tokens are tightly locked by institutions or whales. This kind of trend is a classic case of shorts not dying and the price continuing to rise. Those who hesitated to buy at $0.1966 last night are probably regretting it now.
Next, look at $CNPY. This thing is basically a no-go zone for people with heart conditions. A 40.09% amplitude, bouncing from $0.2943 to $0.4154, now falling back to $0.3664. Although it also has a net inflow of $29,246,200, its trading volume is $153 million, with an astonishingly high turnover rate, clearly showing speculative traders are harvesting each other inside. Right now, this position is a crossroads: if the relay is good, it doubles; if not, it’s standing at the peak.
What worries me most is $HYPE (Hyperliquid). The name suggests super liquidity, but the price at $77.345 is almost stagnant, with a slight increase of 0.12%. The strangest thing is that despite a trading volume of $241 million, there’s a net outflow of $19,590,200. This high-level stagnation combined with capital withdrawal is a definite distribution signal. While everyone is shouting about HYPE, smart money is quietly cashing out.
The current market phase is a typical chaos of speculative coins dancing wildly, while mainstream coins are stagnant. At times like this, the worst thing is to go all-in stubbornly; you have to follow the money but be ready to jump out anytime.
My plan:
Direction: Go long on $USELESS (follow the trend)
Entry point: Wait for a pullback near $0.21500 to confirm support.
Stop loss: $0.19500 (hard stop loss at 9.3%, to guard against a deep shakeout)
Target: First target at $0.26000, reduce position and take profits once reached.
Direction: Short $HYPE (betting on distribution and pullback)
Entry point: Enter near $78.500 on a rebound.
Stop loss: $80.500 (hard stop loss at 2.5%, exit if it breaks previous high)
Target: First target at $72.000.
When to exit? As soon as the net inflow of $USELESS turns negative, I’ll exit immediately. Coins propped up by sentiment will crash once funds withdraw. Brothers, making money now depends on guts and speed—never fall in love with a coin!Foreign capital buying U.S. stocks has already surpassed buying U.S. bonds; this is only the third time this century.
That Barchart graph is quite striking: on a rolling annual average capital flow basis, the proportion of U.S. stocks relative to GDP has already overtaken U.S. bonds.
According to Deutsche Bank's data, as of June this year, foreign capital buying U.S. stocks is about 2.8% of GDP, while U.S. bonds are around 2.0%.
The previous two times were during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 period, neither of which were "good times."
I think this doesn't mean blindly bullish on U.S. stocks; it’s more like foreign capital is avoiding the fiscal and interest rate risks of U.S. bonds, forcing money to flow into equities.
Before the FOMC dot plot is released, don’t take "foreign capital buying U.S. stocks" as a green light to increase positions; if the dot plot turns more hawkish, this inflow narrative will also fail.
Are you more worried about U.S. bonds continuing to fall out of favor, or U.S. stock valuations being pushed even higher by this wave of funds?
$SPY $QQQ $TLT
#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, will the rate hike land?
#AI development anxiety intensifies, regulatory discussions escalateFunds continue to seek relay; who among BTC, ZEC, and SUI can confirm a breakthrough first?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
BTC remains the main reference for overall risk appetite, with short-term focus on whether the consolidation support is stable. If BTC retraces with continued volume contraction and the lows keep rising, it indicates limited active selling pressure; later, if $BTC breaks through recent resistance with increased volume and the retracement holds above the upper boundary, market risk appetite is likely to continue rising. Conversely, a rise followed by a fall warns of prolonged volatility.
ZEC requires more observation of the stability of high-level chips. After significant fluctuations, volume contraction consolidation is more favorable for structural continuation than continuous sharp rallies. If $ZEC’s pullback becomes shallower and active buying strengthens again, it indicates decreasing realization pressure; later, a volume breakout maintaining high turnover can open a second phase, while a volume-driven decline warns of chip loosening.
SUI’s current advantage remains elasticity. During consolidation, the price continuously approaches the resistance zone, indicating no obvious fund withdrawal. If SUI’s lows keep rising with moderate volume increase, the selling pressure above will be gradually absorbed; later, if $SUI holds above resistance with active volume, it is likely to attract continued fund relay. A quick drop back into the range warns of a false breakout.
Looking ahead, the three signals to watch upward are BTC stabilization, ZEC breakout, and SUI volume increase; downward signals include whether BTC’s structure loosens first and which of ZEC or SUI falls back into the consolidation zone first. The truly worth tracking direction is where volume continues after the breakout and lows keep rising.ZEC today had a spike at 1159, then pulled back; no one dared to follow the wave at 1225.
Yesterday's low was 1097, the high reached 1225, and it closed at 1124. Today it opened near 1124, peaked at 1159 but didn't break through, with a low of 1086, and the current price is about 1138. The volume ratio is halved compared to yesterday, and no one is pushing the price up on the rally.
There is still resistance between 1159 and 1225, and above that is 1293 to 1298. If the 1086 support breaks, it’s likely to first see 1036; if that level also fails to hold, the short term will look for lower space.
In the short term, watch if the current price can hold at 1138. If it can’t hold, consider it as still digesting the drop from 1298, and don’t chase the current price. For those already holding, watch if the low at 1086 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and reconsider if it can’t break through 1159; don’t catch a falling knife in mid-air. $ZEC After the public chain hotspot coin SOL rises, the selling pressure above is concentratedly released, and the bullish momentum quickly weakens, causing the market to enter a correction phase. The SOLUSDT perpetual contract with 100x leverage has an unrealized profit of 432.72% on the short position, with an opening average price of 101.45 and a mark price of 97.06. The high-level short position layout accurately captured this round of price pullback.
This analysis uses the CCI trend-following indicator and the VPT volume-price trend indicator. The CCI quickly turns down from the overbought zone, ending the strong bullish pattern; the VPT volume-price trend indicator continues to decline, with volume weakening in sync with price, indicating insufficient short-term buying support.
100x leverage carries extremely high risk, and a short-term rapid rebound will significantly erode unrealized profits. 95.8 is a key short-term support; holding it will lead to a technical recovery rebound; if it breaks down effectively, the downside space will continue to open. Is this pullback a normal shakeout or a trend reversal? Contract trading must strictly control position size, and stop-loss must be set in advance $SOL 在美国东部时间今天下午，美国参议院就《数字资产市场清晰法案》(CLARITY Act)的程序性动议投票。结果是49票赞成、50票反对,没能凑够跨过辩论门槛所需的60票。 经此一役，清晰法案算是彻底黄了（加密行业今年最重要的一天，可能就是明天！）。因为接下来是中期选举，参议院有87%的大概率要输给民主党，就连众议院都可能有59%的几率要易主。 在本次清晰法案投票中，民主党展示了惊人的团结，全体民主党参议员全部投了反对票，包括之前和行业谈了大半年、被认为是"友军"的几位（吉利布兰德、沃纳、布克、沃诺克、加莱戈、阿尔索布鲁克斯、科尔特斯·马斯托），这次集体倒戈。共和党那边也不是铁板一块,柯林斯、霍利、莫兰三人跑票,提利斯则以程序动议的方式投了反对。之所以反对意见这么集中，就是认为法案里的道德条款管不住"特朗普的加密生意"，并表示这个法案的主要目的，就是让史上最腐败的总统川普变得更富有。 例如代表民主党发言的这位伊丽莎白老太，她说川普25年靠加密赚了14亿美金（从收入看，当川普总统是副业，搞加密才是主业...），比任何一家加密上市公司都赚得多！人家说的确实也都是事实，这一下把加密行业都干沉默了$BTC 【The tide has turned】Southeast Asian scams are now starting to use AI
In the past, scams involved a whole complex, with hundreds of people inside, each with a phone, looking for victims every day.
Now these people think having too many people is a problem.
The FATF chair recently directly warned that Southeast Asian scam groups are slowly changing their methods, no longer relying on large complexes with hundreds or thousands of people, but starting to use "small teams + AI."
What does that mean?
Tasks that used to require dozens of people can now be done by a few people with a computer, combined with AI, producing deepfakes, fake websites, fake identities, and scripted chat conversations.
What's more troublesome is that with fewer people, they don't need large spaces; they can be here today and move somewhere else tomorrow, making investigations even harder.
So next time you meet a "beautiful woman," "boss," or "teacher" who chats with you every day on Telegram, dating apps, or investment groups, don't be so quick to trust them.
Before, the fear was scam complexes.
Now it's even more troublesome—you have to first wonder whether the person chatting with you is even real.DOGE short positions continue to win, 0.086 surged with no buyers, today it dropped again to 0.0785.
Yesterday opened at 0.0841, highest 0.0861, lowest 0.0805, closed at 0.0817, volume 32.41 million. Today opened at 0.0817, highest 0.0825, lowest 0.0785, current price about 0.0801. Volume 28.26 million, Asian session is still early.
Resistance above is still at 0.0817–0.0825, and even heavier at 0.0861. Support below first looks at 0.0785, if broken, it’s easy to see lower levels.
Don’t chase 0.0825 in the short term. For those already holding, watch if 0.0785 support holds; if not, reduce some positions. If volume shrinks, consider it as continuing to digest around 0.088, wait for the European and American sessions to see if it can retake 0.0817. $DOGE After the surge, a large amount of high-position chips loosened, and the incremental off-market buy orders were exhausted. FIL completely detached from the strong zone and continued to decline. The FILUSDT perpetual contract 50x short order has a floating profit of 883.20%, opened at 0.9992, current price 0.8227. The high-position short order captured the large downward window in this round.
On the 4-hour level, P‑DEV price deviation and CYC‑OSC cycle oscillation indicators are used to observe the market. P‑DEV shows the price significantly deviated above the upward track and quickly returned downward; CYC‑OSC cycle oscillation fully entered the bearish zone, showing a typical bearish market structure with volume increasing on the decline and volume shrinking on the rebound.
Leverage trading has pros and cons; a single reverse rally can wipe out most floating profits. The 0.780‑0.805 range is a strong support zone and the core battleground between bulls and bears. If support holds, there is a chance for a rebound recovery; if support breaks, the correction will continue. FIL is affected by multiple disturbances such as sector heat and project news, making the market highly variable. Do you choose to trade with the trend or wait for a reversal opportunity? Do not blindly trust high floating profits; strict stop-loss and reasonable position control are the keys to long-term trading success. $FIL Made 12 million in 10 days to turn things around, lost 10 million in 1 day, wow, Maji's leveraged life is even more thrilling than a roller coaster.
After the CLARITY bill vote failed, the market continued to decline, and the bull leader Maji's account suffered a huge drawdown. Over the past week, his $BTC and $HYPE long positions have been cut one after another, with a substantial loss close to 4 million USD.
However, he still holds a 25x long position of 12,500 $ETH, valued at 29.97 million USD, opened at $2,468.23; only 104.4 USD away from liquidation, currently with an unrealized loss of 891,000 USD.
Leverage can make you turn things around in 10 days, but it can also make you fall off a cliff in 1 day. Now, Maji's 25x ETH long position is on the edge of liquidation. Whether it will rebound desperately or end in liquidation depends on tonight's candlestick movement.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #贝森特听证释放多重信号 #Strategy repurchased approximately $139 million STRC
Strategy spent $139 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares, with its Bitcoin holdings remaining unchanged. This is not a tactical pause but a strategic shift from "hoarding coins" to "repairing the balance sheet."
Details: During the week of September 8 to 13, Strategy repurchased 1.4205 million STRC preferred shares for $139.3 million, funded from USD Cash reserves. Bitcoin holdings remained at 845,050 coins, with an average price of $75,412, marking the second consecutive week without any BTC transactions. The preferred stock repurchase plan has about $1.05 billion remaining, and the USD Reserve balance dropped to $5.1 billion.
In contrast, the signal is clearer: during the same period, Strive financed with SATA preferred shares and bought 469 BTC at an average price of $77,954, pushing its holdings beyond 25,000 coins. One company is repurchasing its own preferred shares, while the other is buying coins. Strategy's choice indicates it believes the certain returns from discounted STRC repurchases outweigh the risk-return of buying Bitcoin at $77,000.$EDGE Watching the market obsessively was annoying, but turning it off actually made things clearer, and my mind stopped panicking without staring at the screen.
Right after lunch, while watching the market, EDGE kept grinding above EDGE, the rebound was weak, and volume didn’t keep up. Seeing the obvious resistance above, I signaled a short position idea: if it can’t break through, wait for the pullback.
From 0.6584 down to 0.5913, the short position yield was +203.82%, really satisfying.
Closed 80% of the position first, keeping 20% at cost price for protection, letting profits run if it continues to drop.
The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they’re the smartest. Don’t get greedy with profits, don’t despair with drawdowns. Now is not the time to rush; I’ll signal the next comfortable entry point as soon as it comes.
$SNDK $ADA [Afternoon Watch] After CLARITY Break: Tonight's FOMC + 10 AM ET ARMA/SBR markup
Fact: The House Financial Services Committee will markup H.R.8957 (related to Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) today at 10:00 AM ET. The FOMC decision is expected around 2:00 PM ET. BTC ≈ 75,600, ETH ≈ 2394.
Judgment: Markup ≠ becoming law; don't treat the schedule as a positive catalyst. Regulatory disappointment combined with a hawkish FOMC would hurt risk appetite more than a single event.
Vote: Avoid FOMC first / SBR can hedge / Only trade volatility The CLARITY Act didn't pass, and instead, I continue to bet on BTC dropping! 📉
The Senate rejected the advancement last night 49:50, and $BTC once fell below 75,000, with the entire market experiencing over $770 million in liquidations.
But there's a detail: BTC futures OI has dropped about 4.9% in the past week, indicating the first round of leverage clearing has already happened.
So my aggressive scenario is:
If the rebound doesn't surpass 77,000 → another drop → 73,000 or even 70,000.
But if it climbs back above 78,000, I'll admit I'm wrong immediately; the bears might get squeezed.
Which side are you betting on?
A 📉 70,000
B 🚀 80,000
C 🩸 Drop first then surge
I choose A.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #CLARITYAct