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$SNDK $SKHYNIX Hynix starts to consolidate while SanDisk plunges sharply!!! Institutions begin to support Hynix, so Chai didn't dare to short it, but this time Chai plans to short SanDisk hard. Recently, Chinese manufacturers have substantially overtaken; Yangtze Memory has completed overtaking in the NAND market, and Changxin Memory's breakthrough in the DRAM field has caused panic across the entire sector, coupled with many institutions lowering target prices, leading to a brief loss of market confidence in SanDisk. Additionally, continuous insider selling at SanDisk, along with CPI data exceeding market expectations, dollar appreciation, and tech stocks collectively under pressure. In the short term, Hynix has triggered a protective cushion mechanism; institutions start to support the stock, and retail investors and whales begin to look forward to extra shareholder returns after the Q3 earnings release. SNDK current price is suitable for entering short positions: 1348, first target 1322, stop loss 1400. The above is personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. #SanDiskMSCIRebalancingEffective, NANDValuationInFocus #USCPIExceedsExpectationsRisesTo3.7%, TonightPPIFacesTestAgain #HynixRespondsToUSExpansionRumors Core DAO 在伦敦证券交易所（LSE）业务真相 $CORE代币本身并没有在伦敦交易所上市。上市的是第三方发行商 Valour（DeFi Technologies旗下）的BTC质押ETP产品（1VBS），底层质押技术由Core提供支持。很多社区宣传会简化说成“Core登陆伦交所”，这是宣传口径，并不是CORE币挂牌交易。 产品：1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking（1VBS） 1. 是什么：ETP（交易所交易产品，类似ETF），在伦敦证券交易所公开交易，受英国FCA监管，实物比特币做底层资产，比特币进入Core网络做非托管质押产生收益 。 2. 业务逻辑 - Valour公司持有真实BTC，机构冷存储保管； - 将BTC委托到Core网络验证者进行质押，产生质押奖励（标称年化约1.4%）； - 质押收益归入产品净值，投资者买这个伦交所证券，间接拿到“BTC价格涨幅+质押收益”； - 2025‑09专业投资者开放；2026‑01拿到FCA许可，对英国普通散户开放交易 。 3. Core在这里扮演角色：底层技术服务商 - 提供Satoshi‑PIf the dips before the CPI were all about onboarding the same group of people, then this time BTC returning to the support level is not a coincidence but a prearranged script. Have you noticed that in the last four CPI releases, the price has chosen to continue upward? Watching the rhythm around these data points, it feels like the market is actually trading on a "bad news fully priced in" inertia. Each time before the data, it sweeps a round of lows to wash out the unsteady positions, then after the release, it moves forward lightly. This time BTC once again stands firm near support; emotionally, everyone is still shouting 75k, but the more unified the shout, the more I feel the price might not obediently go there to pick people up. The bullish logic is clear: if the historical rhythm repeats, CPI is a ready catalyst, and if support holds, the target can look toward previous highs or even new highs. ETH and SOL will also warm up with risk appetite, especially SOL, a high-beta asset that often runs faster once BTC confirms direction. But the risks must be clarified: if support is clearly broken, this judgment is invalid. Also, the market may have already priced in the "post-CPI rise" expectation in advance; if the data just meets expectations, it can easily turn into a case of good news fully priced in. Another easily overlooked point is that capital preference now leans more toward BTC dominance; altcoins need volume to follow the rally, otherwise it's just a false fire. My own rhythm is to first see if support can hold, then watch how the first 4-hour candle after the data release closes. If it closes up on volume, it means the buying is real; if it spikes then falls back on low volume, then be cautious of another fakeout Is $SOXL at a low point now? The price looks very low, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the bottom. To judge whether it's the bottom, you can't just look at how much the price has dropped; you need to look at two core signals: ✅ U.S. Treasury yields stop rising and start to fall ✅ Heavy holdings like storage and Nvidia stabilize, with earnings reports and guidance not continuing to disappoint As long as U.S. Treasury yields remain high, even if this is a temporary low point, it's likely just a consolidation phase, making it difficult to start a big rally directly. Even if there is a rebound, treat it primarily as a corrective bounce, not as the start of a new bull market. This crash is due to macro interest rates killing valuations + negative news in the storage sector, compounded by 3x leverage amplifying losses. The price looks cheap, but bottom-fishing leveraged ETFs carries huge risks. The bottom is formed by a process, not just by falling prices. #USCPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test $ZEC I don't dare to buy in; 1120 was directly smashed through, with a low down to 1070 Brothers, I've been watching ZEC's trend for a while, and my advice is simple: don't reach out. It held at 1120 for a long time, and many thought it was the bottom, but this wave smashed right through it, hitting a low of 1070. Look at those big bearish candles with huge volume—it shows it's not a slow decline but bulls giving up one after another, forced liquidations triggering a chain reaction. Whoever is slow to exit gets buried. This kind of stampede-style drop means the bottom isn't something you can just guess. I checked around, and $BTC and $ETH are also dropping simultaneously, indicating it's not just ZEC's problem but the whole market releasing risk. At times like this, trying to bottom-fish a single coin is going against the market. Technically, without going into jargon, 1120 was a psychological bottom before. Now that it's broken, it becomes resistance above. If it rebounds back near 1120, there's a high chance people will sell because too many are trapped there. My thinking is simple: I absolutely won't bottom-fish near 1112 now. I'll wait for a rebound near 1120; if it can't break through and starts turning down, that's where I'll short. Below, I'll first watch 1060, and if that breaks, then the 1000 round number. #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test Hayes was still calling for a market rescue in the morning, but in the afternoon he went OTC to sweep through some altcoins. Talking macro with his mouth, but buying old DeFi faces like AERO and PENDLE with his hands. I can only take celebrity buys as a reference; his cost and position size are in a different league from retail investors. He can afford to wait three months, but many people can't wait even three days. $PENDLE #South Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure $SAMSUNG Circuit breakers have already triggered 10 times this year. ▪️ On 10/15 at 11:24 AM, KOSPI dropped over 8%, triggering a circuit breaker and pausing trading for 20 minutes, marking the 10th time this year ▪️ Intraday reported at 5,529.61 points, down 7.97%; KOSDAQ 150 down 8.83% ▪️ Samsung Electronics −10%, SK Hynix −11%, Hanmi Semiconductor −10% ▪️ Nikkei 225 down 5%; Kioxia −12%, Advantest −14% ▪️ The trigger was attributed to the US CPI overnight exceeding expectations, with the probability of a rate hike in October rising to 43.7% The disagreement is not about how much it fell this time, but that a tool meant to prevent panic has become routine. Circuit breakers limit speed, not the magnitude of the drop — the same drop completed in one day does not trigger it, but if it happens within half an hour, it does. The 10th time this year indicates an increase in volatility frequency. The decline is not limited to Korean stocks: semiconductors in Japan and the US also fell simultaneously during the same period. The direction is to wait and see — stability is only confirmed when the interval between circuit breakers lengthens and foreign net selling turns positive; if the frequency continues to increase, the volatility center will still be rising.#TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High The AI industry chain's performance is still growing, but the market is starting to pay more attention: How long can this round of AI investment really last? On October 15, TSMC announced its Q3 2026 results, with net profit reaching NT$763.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 69%, exceeding the market expectation of NT$746.3 billion, setting a new quarterly profit record. This is also TSMC's sixth consecutive quarter of record-breaking profits. Q3 revenue was about NT$1.494 trillion, up approximately 51% year-on-year. This financial report sends three important signals. First, AI computing power demand remains strong. Major customers like Nvidia and Apple continue to require advanced process chips; AI servers and data center construction remain key drivers of TSMC's performance growth. TSMC's results indicate that AI demand has not visibly cooled on the performance side. Second, advanced process technology remains the core competitive advantage. TSMC benefits not only from chip demand growth but also from the technical barriers of advanced processes and advanced packaging. However, as the 2nm process gradually scales up, gross margins may be affected by initial costs, and it will be necessary to observe whether the new process can successfully translate into profits. Third, good performance does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise. The current market concerns are not only about whether AI demand exists but also whether companies can continue to bear high capital expenditures and whether future revenues can cover the increasing investments. TSMC remains cautious about the outlook for 2027, while the US AI stock sector is also affected by rising interest rates and financing pressures. There’s another big move at 8:30 tonight, PPI After last night’s CPI surprise at 3.7%, the market hasn’t caught a breath today. Bitcoin at 80168, just one step away from 80,000. Ethereum at 2315, down nearly 10% in three days. ZEC is even worse, at 1080, dropping from 1695 to 1080 within a week, nearly a 40% decline. No need to even look at liquidations; this week’s 1.19 billion list just got digested, and waves keep coming these past two days. Bulls just got buried, and those trying to catch the bottom are getting buried again. This market now specifically targets the fast movers. Why is tonight’s PPI so critical? CPI and PPI are conjoined twins, one upstream and one downstream. CPI exceeding expectations means costs have already passed from factories to shelves. If PPI also exceeds expectations, it means the next round of CPI will still rise, confirming the 50 basis point rate hike priced in for December. My view remains the same: the first dip in a downtrend isn’t the bottom, and the second dip might not be either. Today’s 80168 dip is the second probe of 80,000, a bit more solid than the first, but as long as PPI hasn’t landed, any dip is temporary. Once the data lands, watch if Bitcoin holds 80,000. If it holds, this week’s dip is over. If not, 78,000 is next. $ZEC What do you think, will tonight’s PPI cause another shock, or give the market a breather? #USCPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, tonight’s PPI faces another test $BTC $ETH From the risk premium perspective, distinguish between low-risk mainstream markets and high Beta sector markets. When market risk appetite is high, capital is willing to speculate on high-volatility sectors; when risk appetite contracts, capital flows back to core assets like BTC and ETH for hedging. BTC reflects capital's hedging willingness, ETH measures market risk premium. Layered screening: when risk premium rises, high Beta assets experience much larger drawdowns than mainstream ones. Tracked assets list: 🟠BTC｜Benchmark for hedging assets 🔵ETH｜Gauge for risk premium 🟣SOL｜High Beta public chain 🟢AVAX｜Ecosystem public chain 🔷INJ｜On-chain finance Key focus on the relative strength of BTC and ETH: When risk appetite rises, ETH/BTC rises, and high Beta assets like $SOL and AVAX show greater elasticity; when risk appetite falls, capital flows back to BTC, and high Beta sectors experience significant drawdowns. Bitcoin needs to return to 86000; what's missing is not time, but a catalyst. The current price is about $80,985. 86000 is not a price issue, it's a confidence issue. Why is 86000 so strong? This is the average cost zone for investors who entered in the past two years. The cost for holders of 6-12 months is about 88000, and for holders of 1-2 years, it's close to 100000. Every rebound near 86000 triggers selling to break even. Glassnode clearly lists 88000 and 100000 as major resistance levels above. What conditions could push it back? It's not a technical pattern, but a macro shift. Currently, CPI is exceeding expectations, and market concerns about a Fed rate hike in October have dropped from 50% to about 20% probability. Hawkish expectations are suppressing all risk assets. KCM Trade analysts point out that weaker-than-expected inflation data is needed to reduce the likelihood of further tightening; this is the real short-term catalyst for an upward move. On-chain data offers hope. Whale holdings have risen to 3.03 million BTC, with a 30-day growth rate the fastest since February this year. ETFs are selling, but large holders are buying. This signals a shift of chips from weak hands to strong hands, but until this turnover is complete, the price will struggle to effectively break through 86000. The next observation point is very specific: this week's CPI and PPI data, as well as the FOMC meeting minutes. If inflation data unexpectedly weakens, a test of 86000 could come soon; if it remains strong, the 400-day moving average support at 80000 will face a real stress test. $BTC 今早这一记向下的插针，狠狠带走了一大批高杠杆多头。 这一次震动之中，最出圈的就是大家熟知的麻吉大哥 除了他之外，链上还监测到一位巨鲸，手握价值3.52亿的ETH多单。当下浮亏已经接近1900万，距离清算线仅仅只差60美元，价格再往下轻轻踩一脚，就会迎来爆破时刻。 一幕幕惊心动魄的清算，时时刻刻都在提醒所有人：杠杆可以制造奇迹，也可以一瞬间抹平一切。但是抛开情绪，我们理性看待这一根长下影。 虽然这一针杀伤力十足，却未必是纯粹的坏事。 从盘面来看，这已经是BTC第三次回踩81000附近的支撑区间。一个值得留意的信号：每一次下跌，引发的恐慌性砸盘规模正在逐步递减。 这说明无脑恐慌出逃的筹码变少了，此刻离场的，大多是心里摇摆、扛不住震荡的浮动筹码。市场正在用剧烈的震荡，完成一轮痛苦的洗筹过程。 再看宏观层面：美国通胀数据超预期，依然持续压制着全球风险资产的估值，大环境的压力还没有完全解除。 不过，加密市场反复去触碰底部支撑、反复去测试底线的行为，从技术逻辑来讲，就是低位磨底的典型特征。Don't just remember that Big Brother Maji is a whale; in these ten days, he has collapsed to nothing but a sigh. The ledger reveals three facts: 1. Heavy losses — a total loss of $36,572,500, with an additional $4,435,600 lost in the past 7 days, leaving total account assets at only $279,800. 2. Heavy positions — 2100 ETH fully leveraged long positions, valued at $5,074,400, 25x full leverage (account shows 36.17x), opening average price 2515.81, current unrealized loss $208,900, cumulative funding fees burned $1,362,700. 3. No way out — liquidation price 2397.51, available margin 0. What does stacking these three facts mean? Less than $280,000 left in the pocket, holding $5,074,400 in positions, margin wiped out, only a needle's distance from the liquidation price, no bullets left to top up. In ten days, the whale has turned into a small fish. Leverage is like this: as great as it feels when it feeds you, it is just as ruthless when it collects. So don't focus on chasing the whale to bottom fish; those who survive long in contracts are always the ones who control their positions.The storage trio also fell sharply: Micron dropped 7.4%, SanDisk fell 7.8%, and SK Hynix directly crashed 12.8%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has also declined for six consecutive days. But the price drop isn't the scariest part; the long-short ratios are absurd: $MU at 4.88, $SNDK at 5.01, $SKHYNIX at 5.91—each more extreme than the last. And the positions are still increasing: Micron surged from 33 million to 38 million, SanDisk from 70 million to 110 million, SK Hynix doubled from 40 million to 84 million. What does this mean? The bulls are buying more as prices fall, stubbornly holding on without selling. The fundamentals haven't actually collapsed; HBM orders are still there, and long-term contracts remain intact. But the current problem isn't fundamentals—it's that the chip structure is too tight. After such a big drop today, the bulls still haven't given up, which itself is a risk. Let the dust settle for a while; once liquidation data stops spiking and market volatility narrows, then consider testing with a small position. Key support levels below: Micron at 850, if broken then 800; SanDisk at 1300, if broken then 1250; SK Hynix at 900, if broken then 850. Do you think this storage wave is a correction or a bearish reversal? #KoreanStocksMiddayDropNearly8%,GlobalTechStocksUnderPressure #MicronPlunge:BottomOrMidSlope? #CanHBM4MassProductionDriveSKHynixProfitsToNewHighs? AI computing power demand has shifted from being "expected" to a quantifiable, structural source of revenue, and the rapid commercialization of 2nm technology has further widened the technological gap with competitors. The real test is not on the demand side—where there is virtually no ceiling—but whether TSMC can maintain its profit margin floor while simultaneously advancing 2nm capacity expansion, overseas factory construction, and next-generation process development. The current gross margin level of 66.4% remains absolutely leading in the global semiconductor manufacturing sector, but the trend of sequential narrowing is worth continuous monitoring. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record high 📊 Storage Giants Plunge | SanDisk, SK Hynix: Is It a Valuation or Fundamentals Crash? Brothers, the storage sector was bloodied overnight. In one sentence: South Korea triggered a circuit breaker, SanDisk broke key support, but fundamentals and stock prices are at odds. Let's look at the data first—— Ticker Latest Price 24H Drop Key Level SanDisk SNDK $1,403.34 -5.33% Continued to fall to $1,339 in after-hours SK Hynix (Korean stock) ₩1,277,000 -10.01% Intraday drop exceeded 12% KOSPI Index 5,554.22 -7.57% Triggered the 10th circuit breaker of the year SanDisk slid from $1,787 at the beginning of October to $1,403, a decline of over 20% in two weeks. SK Hynix fared worse, with intraday losses expanding to 12%, hitting the lowest price since April 27, forcing the Korea Exchange to halt trading for 20 minutes. Why did this happen? The trigger was the US CPI exceeding expectations overnight, with high interest rate expectations suppressing all high-valuation assets. But the storage sector fell harder than other tech stocks due to an additional reason: prior leveraged positions being liquidated. Hedge funds' leveraged positions on Korean memory chips were forced into cascading liquidations, and retail investors' double-leveraged single-stock ETFs were simultaneously liquidated, mechanically amplifying the selling pressure. But here a key divergence appears. On October 14, Samsung Securities just released a report with a core view in one sentence: "The stock price decline excessively reflects profit concerns." They maintain a buy rating on Samsung and SK Hynix, reasoning that HBM production occupies existing capacity, new production lines require time, and the current profit cycle in the memory industry will last longer than before. "Peak margin does not equal peak profit," so the stock price drop is a valuation cut, not a fundamentals cut. Data from the NAND side also supports this logic. Although the 512Gb NAND trade price fell to $0.30/Gb, this is due to a severe inversion between trade prices and official factory prices. Consumer-grade NAND contract prices are actually rising—about $0.33 per Gb, up 30% to 40% quarter-over-quarter. Manufacturers prioritize advanced capacity for HBM and server DRAM, systematically squeezing supply of consumer-grade NAND. So the current situation is: stock prices are trading on "the AI bubble is bursting," but industry data says "capacity is insufficient and structural." 🎯 Trading strategy, key points: SanDisk: $1,400 is the current dividing line between bulls and bears. After-hours already touched $1,339; if this level does not hold on the daily close, the next support is $1,250-$1,280. But note—this round of SanDisk's decline follows the sector's valuation cut, not its own performance issues. If the storage sector sentiment stabilizes later, SanDisk's rebound elasticity will be greater than the broader market. Do not short below $1,400. SK Hynix: Korean stock sentiment is extreme; the first trading day after a circuit breaker often has aftershocks. But Samsung Securities' "buy" rating is not given lightly; institutions are starting to turn bullish at this level. Don't cut losses in panic after the circuit breaker, nor rush to bottom fish; wait until Korean stock trading volume normalizes. Overall judgment: The storage sector is currently "macroeconomic sentiment suppressing fundamentals." CPI and interest rate expectations are short-term dominant variables; the long-term demand logic for HBM and AI data centers remains intact. Keep positions below half and hold bullets for sentiment clearance. 📌 The above does not constitute investment advice. Leverage carries risks; don't bet on direction during circuit breakers. TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about? TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue. closed at $485.80 on 10/6, with this year's high at $487.47; the latest available close is $472.20 on 10/8. #DailyOrbit Bitcoin briefly dropped below $81,000 early this morning, with $935 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, bulls accounting for $860 million. What happened? Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million in a single day, with Fidelity's FBTC outflowing $153 million and BlackRock's IBIT outflowing $111 million. However, on-chain whales acted contrarily: large holders excluding exchanges and mining pools have increased their holdings to 3.03 million BTC, with a 30-day growth rate being the fastest since February this year, shifting from distribution to accumulation. Why is this noteworthy? Retail investors are withdrawing from ETFs, while large on-chain funds are accumulating. Analyst Murphy pointed out that Bitcoin has tested the $81,000 level three times, with on-chain realized losses decreasing sequentially, indicating a clearing of swing chips rather than widespread panic. Which observation does this support? It supports the "chip turnover" logic, not a trend reversal. Leveraged long positions are being liquidated, but large on-chain holders are absorbing. Next, watch for one signal: when ETF outflows slow down, whether whale accumulation accelerates simultaneously. The day these two directions converge will be the true turning point. $BTC Bitcoin fell below $81,000, but the most important thing to watch is not the price. What has changed? ETFs are selling, whales are buying. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million in one day, with Fidelity's FBTC alone outflowing $153 million. But on-chain data shows the opposite: large holders' total positions have increased to about 3.03 million BTC, and CryptoQuant confirms this is the fastest monthly accumulation rate since February. Why is this worth attention? This is not an emotional sell-off; it’s a shift in holding structure. Retail investors and ETF funds are withdrawing, while large on-chain holders are accumulating. Which market observation does this support? It supports "chip turnover" rather than "trend reversal." This round of decline was driven by CPI exceeding expectations and leverage liquidations, with nearly $1 billion liquidated across the market in 24 hours, $860 million of which were longs. Next, watch for one signal: when ETF outflows slow down, does whale accumulation accelerate simultaneously? If both move in the same direction, that is the real turning point. $BTC $ETH #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, earnings hit a record high. Three signals to watch As the proportion of 2nm continues to rise, whether the gross margin can hold above 65% is the most direct verification point. The cash flow and financing situation of cloud providers—no matter how full upstream orders are, if downstream payments are delayed, it will backfire. In the mature process price war, if mainland wafer fabs continue to expand capacity, TSMC can only maintain high gross margins by relying on more advanced nodes.Nearly $1B in crypto liquidations in 24 hours. $ETH took the worst hit — $286M wiped, down 6% to $2,350, worse than $BTC $197M. Leveraged longs got destroyed after hot CPI. The twist: Santiment shows ETH sentiment 2.05 bullish while BTC sits at 0.82 bearish. My levels: Level 1 → PPI cool at 5:30 PM = short squeeze, ETH reclaims $2,500 Level 2 → PPI hot = $2,200 comes fast Level 3 → BTC dominance hits 60% = alts bleed more Everyone's bullish ETH while it dumps hardest? #DailyOrbit The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to the 2nm ramp diluting about 3 to 4 percentage points. Market consensus is around 66.5%, so holding near the upper end of the range would be good news. #DailyOrbit 2026 is not a harvest year for the Democrats: Looking back at the 2020 election map, the Democrats have far more Senate seats to defend than the Republicans. Many swing states voted blue in the presidential election but often experience a backlash effect in the midterms. Weight of rural votes: The design of the U.S. Senate gives red states with sparse populations disproportionate weight. Even if the Democrats lead in the nationwide popular vote, losing a few key agricultural states means they cannot secure a Senate majority. 2. The double-edged sword effect of inflation and recession Although high oil prices and inflation anger voters, this fire may burn everyone, not just the ruling party's allies. Economic panic leads to risk aversion: If the economy truly enters a deep recession due to a collapse in oil prices, voters tend to favor divided government for stability rather than handing full power to one party to cause turmoil. Republicans’ fiscal conservative image: Under severe inflation, some independent voters may believe the Republicans are better at controlling government spending and curbing inflation, thus flipping key districts to the GOP and preventing a Democratic sweep. 3. Historical pattern: the midterm curse for the president’s party Data does not support a sweep: In U.S. political history, the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm elections. Although many think Trump is too weak this time and that could backfire, the opposition wave is usually limited. Base consolidation: The Republican strongholds are extremely solid. Even if Trump’s approval rating is low, these voters will still turn out to block the Democrats. As long as the Republicans hold onto a few key red state seats, the Democrats’ dream of a sweep will be shattered #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus $TSLA Delivered 486,500 vehicles, 22,000 more than it produced itself. ▪️ Q3 deliveries 486,532 units, down 2.1% year-on-year, up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, about 25,000 units above expectations ▪️ Production during the same period 464,391 units, deliveries exceeded production by about 22,000 units ▪️ Model 3/Y deliveries 478,200 units, down 0.6% year-on-year ▪️ Cumulative deliveries for the first three quarters about 1.32 million units, Q4 needs about 311,000 units to avoid full-year negative growth ▪️ Stock price rose more than 5% on the day the delivery report was released, then gave back gains The disagreement is not about whether expectations were exceeded, but where the "excess" came from. The excess is over analyst expectations, not last year’s same period — year-on-year is still negative. Deliveries exceeding production by 22,000 units comes from inventory, not new orders; it needs to be replenished next quarter. What really determines profit recovery is the gross profit per vehicle. The direction is to wait and see — Q4 deliveries exceeding 311,000 units and a quarter-on-quarter rebound in gross margin will count as recovery; relying on inventory reduction is just moving stock around. Once CPI heats up, the whole market gets hammered. ZEC, SOL, and BTC are all falling, but the reasons behind their drops differ. $ZEC is falling the hardest. 24h -12%, current price 1096, position volume down 13.6%, 19 million liquidations are all longs. Leverage is maxed out: funding rate annualized near 10%, a sudden reversal triggers a stampede. 1,000 is the critical support. $SOL is dragged down by funding but the fundamentals are solid. Current price 102.3, 24h -5%, ETF has been selling for 7 consecutive days. Q3 application revenue 365 million (+42.6%), on October 21 Alpenglow mainnet launch, confirmation time cut from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. Breaking 100, watch for 90. $BTC is the most resilient. Current price 80,927, down 10 points less than ZEC, whale holdings at 3.03 million coins hit a near one-year high. But USD spot is withdrawing, ETF ran 680 million last week. Breaking 80,000, watch for 78,000. Among these three, ZEC is leveraging to pay debts, SOL is money waiting, BTC is money not fully withdrawn yet. There's another event tonight; will the decline continue? Stay tuned. #BTC spot ETF net outflow again, can institutional buying warm up? $AKE #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 This wave of AKE is not simply a “14% increase.” 24-hour low at 0.02413, high at 0.02954, close to a one-sided rebound. In 1 hour, active buy volume was 32.979 million tokens, active sell volume was 23.4506 million tokens, with active buy volume about 1.41 times the active sell volume. Open interest simultaneously rose to 122 million tokens, but the funding rate was only 0.005%, indicating bulls dominate without obvious crowding. What does this indicate? The market has indeed strengthened, but has not lost rationality yet. Looking at two other details: Long accounts account for 62.88%, with a long-short account ratio of 1.69. This data only shows a higher number of accounts, not the strength of the capital. A small holder with 100 USDT and a large holder with 1 million USDT have completely different weights in the account ratio. At 16:00, the basis was about -0.00001 USDT, with a price spread rate of -0.034%, basically close to neutral. There is no runaway price spread between futures and spot, nor obvious independent overheating in futures. Therefore, the most accurate current assessment is: The bullish rebound has been established, but the trend reversal is still awaiting confirmation. $BTC $ETH I looked into it, and the root cause of this decline is still the US inflation data exceeding expectations. The market is starting to think that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, and even doesn't rule out further rate hikes. As US Treasury yields keep rising, all high-risk assets are under pressure, with US tech stocks, storage, and cryptocurrencies all dropping together. First, let's talk about US stocks, especially the storage sector we've been watching. It had risen too much before, and the stock prices had already priced in the AI benefits in advance. Now, investors have become very picky; if earnings reports are slightly below expectations, the stock gets sold off immediately. Take SanDisk, for example, stuck at the 1500 resistance level for a long time, with many profit-taking positions waiting to be closed. Plus, Musk's tweet supporting Micron made the market worry that SanDisk's price hikes might be too aggressive and lose customers, so bulls dare not push the price up forcefully. In the short term, storage stocks are unlikely to rally straight back to new highs; they will probably oscillate repeatedly, bouncing on good news but getting pushed down again when macroeconomic negatives appear. Now, about the crypto space, like ETH and BTC. They are most sensitive to interest rates; as long as the market expects rates to stay high, funds are unwilling to stay in crypto. Once the market goes down, leveraged positions explode in a chain reaction, causing the drop to be much sharper than stocks. Even if there is a rebound in between, it looks more like a correction, making it hard to start a new big bull market immediately. Next, let's look at two things: US Treasury yields and statements from US officials. As long as Treasury yields keep rising, it's hard for risk assets to have a big rally. Only when inflation falls and the market bets again on rate cuts will funds return on a large scale. In summary: We are currently in a weak sentiment consolidation phase, so don't rush to bottom-fish Yesterday the market signaled: inflation is more stubborn than expected, and capital is beginning to recalculate the valuation of risk assets. The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also above expectations. The Nasdaq fell 1.88%, and BTC briefly dropped below $81,000. 👇 Next, I will focus on 1️⃣ Interest rate expectations, the key to this round of decline Inflation exceeding expectations means the Federal Reserve may need to maintain high interest rates for a longer period, and a rate hike again cannot be ruled out. High interest rates will suppress tech stock valuations and reduce the willingness of capital to hold high-risk assets. However, today US Treasury yields have fallen back from their highs, indicating the market is not simply trading along the logic of "high inflation = continuous rate hikes." We still need to watch PPI and statements from Federal Reserve officials. 2️⃣ Issues in the AI sector are shifting from growth to returns This time, the impact is not only on chip stocks; some AI infrastructure companies have fallen even more. The market worries: if financing costs continue to rise, can the huge AI investments really deliver the expected returns? TSMC's performance and AI demand still provide fundamental support, but good performance does not mean the stock price will immediately rebound. The key is whether future guidance can continue to exceed market expectations. 3️⃣ BTC needs to be wary of leverage liquidations and also observe whether capital is flowing back After BTC fell below $81,000, market sentiment clearly weakened. In the latest market, BTC is still under pressure around $80,000, ETF #TSMCQ3RecordProfit https://okx.ac/ul/8Ma1r6Q TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about? TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue. upward, but the current ceiling. Management previously said capital expenditure would be "significantly higher" over #TSMCOn October 13, Anthropic disclosed in an official engineering article that their internal daily code merges increased from about 2,500 times in May to over 30,000 times in September. Seven engineers spent five months developing the version control system Scion, the code review tool Antique, and several related systems, completing the migration of the main repository. Against the backdrop of accelerated AI coding, this company chose to rebuild the infrastructure that supports code. The question worth asking is: what constraints did the original system face, and why was it worth the cost to migrate the entire development process? Merging 30,000 times daily is accompanied by 25 million checkouts behind the scenes. Version control is responsible for recording code changes, supporting multi-person collaboration, and integrating individual modifications into a shared version. The faster code is generated, the more work may be needed afterward to move, check, and integrate it. Anthropic revealed that their main branch history is about 100GB, and the compressed working copy still exceeds 25GB. Meanwhile, the continuous integration system, i.e., the CI that automatically builds and tests code, performs about 25 million code checkouts daily. These two counts should not be confused. Merging incorporates changes into the shared version; checkout prepares the corresponding version of the code for a specific task. The same code may be checked out repeatedly by different tests and jobs, so the checkout volume can be much higher than the merge volume. This explains why infrastructure has become a focus: even saving a little resource each time code is prepared, multiplied by tens of millions of operations daily, can create a considerable difference. Shortening the time needed to write a piece of code does not necessarily mean the entireAt 8:30 tonight, everyone's eyes will be fixed on the same number. But before that number lands, the funding rates have already "spoken" in advance. 📊 Comparison of funding rate data from two major platforms Platform A (cumulative funding rates): ▪ $BTC: 0.0039% ▪ $ETH: 0.0082% ▪ $SOL: 0.0163% Platform B (current funding rates): ▪ $BTC: 0.0035% (slightly positive) ▪ $ETH: -0.0043% (rate turned negative) ▪ $SOL: 0.0033% (slightly positive) 供给准备好了，客户在哪里？ $TAO 我更想追问，参与者是在争取网络奖励，还是已经找到愿意付费的客户？ Bittensor会通过发行TAO和子网代币，激励挖矿、验证等参与行为。 奖励能吸引人提供服务，但服务有没有人需要，还得另外验证。 假如一个子网奖励不错，外部客户却很少，那更像是在建设供给。要提高长期预期，我需要看到服务质量、重复使用和付费需求逐步跟上，不能把参与热情直接算成营业收入。 $FIL 也不能只数硬盘。 存储容量意味着能够接多少业务，实际存了多少、客户愿意付多少钱，回答的又是另外两个问题。 我会尤其留意续约：第一次使用可能是尝试，愿意继续付费保存数据，才更能说明服务有价值。 容量扩张可以提前布局，但如果长期等不到订单，设备和维护成本仍然要承担。 $ARB 则要问，应用增长怎样影响代币需求。 Arbitrum One使用ETH支付手续费，ARB承担治理作用，交易增加并不要求用户按比例购买ARB。 所以看到生态热闹，我会继续往下查：增长产生了什么收入，治理又怎样安排这些资源。网络发展值得认可，持币理由还需要具体机制支撑。TSMC's Q3 record profit is notable not just for the 68.7% year-on-year increase, but for the mix behind it: advanced nodes supplied 79% of wafer revenue while 2nm was still only 8%. That suggests AI demand is already monetising at scale, although the durability of that demand remains the open question. #TSMCQ3RecordProfit During the market pullback, PYTH rose against the trend by 5.74% to touch $0.08772, entering OKX's altcoin movement list. The market dropped 4.85% in a single day, but PYTH on OKX rose 5.74% against the trend, reaching $0.08772. If you hold spot, there's no need to rush into contracts. I checked overseas news and reports this afternoon; Bloomberg revealed that mainstream derivatives positions shrank by $14 billion, but RWA perpetual positions linked to stocks and gold rose to $9 billion. Pyth accounts for 94.1% of this type of data pricing. Plus, the community previously decided to use all external income to buy back tokens, so short-term buying surged today on this news. Switching to the OKX market page to check the market. BTC dropped 3.35% to $81,271.3, ETH fell 6.21% to $2,369.11. OKX perpetual total positions stand at $7.673 billion, with BTC holding $3.096 billion, altcoin contracts at $2.878 billion, and the altcoin-to-BTC position ratio at 0.929. The fear and greed index is neutral at 53. The total network market cap fell 4.85% to $2.73 trillion, with BTC market dominance rising to 59.52%. PYTH recorded a trading volume of 14.1 million USDT, making it one of the few altcoins moving green against the trend today. 台積電今天公布第三季財報並舉行法說會 但營收的部分， 市場其實早就知道答案。 九月營收 5,118.6 億元， 較去年同期成長 54.6%； 第三季營收合計約 1.49 兆元， 創下歷史新高， 而且超過公司自己在七月給的財測上緣。 前三季累計營收成長逾四成。 所以今天真正的看點不是已公布的數字， 而是三件還沒公布的事： 第四季的財測 AI 需求的動能能不能延續到年底。 毛利率指引 先進製程初期的成本稀釋 是否如預期收斂。 明年的資本支出規劃 這一項最重要。 資本支出是對未來兩三年需求的下注。 它代表的不是台積電自己的看法， 而是它從客戶訂單裡看到的東西。 財報講的是上一季， 資本支出講的是下一輪。#PalantirQ3Valuation TSMC's third-quarter sales exceeded the original guidance, and growth is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. I am more inclined to believe that US stock TSM can rebound in the coming week. The revenue scale is already so large and still growing, which makes me happy. The third-quarter revenue announced today is $46.72 billion, exceeding the company's original guidance upper limit of $45.8 billion. The fourth quarter is expected to be between $52.3 billion and $54.3 billion, with a midpoint of $53.3 billion, about 14% more than the third quarter. This is still the company's estimate; actual revenue depends on subsequent deliveries. Before the earnings report, US stock TSM had already retreated to around $430. Today's earnings report has not yet been tested in the regular US trading session. At 8:30 tonight, the US September PPI will be released. If the data makes the market more worried that interest rates won't come down, it could also weigh on tech stocks. If the stock continues to fall after the earnings report, I will have to reconsider my judgment about a rebound this week. The company said that strong demand for advanced processes will continue to support the fourth quarter, and 2nm will continue to ramp up. In the third quarter, 2nm already accounted for 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% last quarter, with new processes starting to ship more. However, the gross margin actually fell from 67.7% last quarter to 66.4% in the third quarter. The company explained that this was mainly due to the initial ramp-up of 2nm, and a decline in gross margin alone should not be taken as a sign of weakening demand. The fourth-quarter gross margin guidance is 65% to 67%, still below last quarter's 67.7%. Revenue is going up, but gross margin has not kept pace, which is indeed a bit unfortunate. #TSMC #USStocks #EarningsReport台积电发布Q3财报，营收同比大涨50.9%来到1.49万亿新台币，净利润同比增长68.7%达7631亿新台币，季度盈利刷新历史新高，大幅超出市场预期。 不过有意思的是，业绩大超预期，股价反而下跌。Q3毛利率指引65%-67%，对比Q2的67.7%有所回落。 一边是AI芯片需求爆发拉动先进制程订单，另一边毛利率承压。接下来资本开支会不会继续上调，直接反映AI产能扩张的节奏，后续电话会的指引值得重点跟踪。 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to the 2nm ramp diluting about 3 to 4 percentage points. Market consensus is around 66.5%, so holding near the upper end of the range would be good news. BTC 交易员又加了约8.12 万美元的多仓（名义金额）。 本次成交均价 81,261 美元。 变化后仓位名义价值约 65.00 万美元。 账户杠杆4倍。 这笔记录的重点是继续加仓。后面可以跟踪：价格走得不顺时，他会继续加，还是把仓位减回来？ $BTC 📊 OKX Market Express | 10.15 CPI Crash, What’s Next for BTC and ETH? Brothers, did you check today’s market? In one sentence: CPI blew past expectations, bulls got schooled. But don’t panic yet, let’s first clarify the data and logic. --- 🔴 Current Market: Down, but not a crash First, the hard data. As of October 15 Asian session: Asset Quote 24H Drop 24H Low BTC ~$81,070 -3.18% $80,651 ETH ~$2,380 -3.5% $2,350 Key levels: · BTC: The $80,000 round number is the critical defense line now; the intraday low already touched $80,651, just a step away from $80,000. Resistance short-term is at $84,000-$84,500. · ETH: Broke $2,400, testing $2,350. ETH is clearly weaker than BTC this round, with nearly double the drop. Total 24-hour liquidations across the network reached $935 million, with longs liquidated at $860 million; ETH contract liquidations about $286 million, BTC about $197 million. ETH longs took a heavier hit this time because ETH open interest is only about 60% of BTC’s, yet liquidation proportion is higher. --- 🧨 Why the drop? CPI is the trigger US September CPI YoY at 3.7%, higher than previous 3.4% and expectations; core CPI 2.6%, also above forecast. Once data released, CME FedWatch’s October rate hike probability jumped from 22% to 47%. Rising rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields rise → risk assets all fall sharply, BTC, Nasdaq futures, Korean stocks (8% plunge triggered circuit breaker) all hit hard. NY Fed President Williams tried to ease concerns saying “no need for rate hikes beyond 2027,” but market isn’t buying it yet. Next key variable: October FOMC. Probability of holding rates steady still above 70%, but expectations are swinging wildly. During this window, BTC will likely oscillate between $80,000 and $84,000 to digest. --- 📈 Contradictory signals: ETFs outflowing, whales accumulating This is the most notable divergence: ETF side: Bitcoin spot ETFs recently saw net outflows of $744.3 million; on October 14 alone, $150.5 million outflow. Ethereum ETFs worse, with 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows until October 13 when it turned to a net inflow of $24.84 million. On-chain side: CryptoQuant data shows whales’ total holdings rose to 3.03 million BTC, monthly growth fastest since February this year. BTC net outflow from exchanges recently hit a 7-month high, with 24,073 BTC withdrawn in a single day. ETH has a special signal: on-chain monitoring detected a giant whale/institution continuously "selling BTC to buy ETH," accumulating about 39,800 ETH since October 11, worth over $100 million, average buy price around $2,534. This whale’s persistent ETH accumulation near $2,534 indicates capital is reallocating weight between BTC and ETH. Simply put: ETF funds are withdrawing, but on-chain whales are buying. Short-term sentiment is bearish, but the chip structure hasn’t collapsed. --- 🏦 Institutional views? Big divergence Institution BTC Target ETH Target Core View Citi (Oct) $113,000 $3,028 Upgraded, optimistic on ETF fund inflows Standard Chartered $100,000 $4,000 Maintained, but warned rebound only after drop to $50K Tom Lee $150K-$250K $9K-$12K Optimistic year-end scenario CryptoQuant — — 30-day consensus index jumped from -18.3 to 49.2 Citi just raised targets in early October citing “increased crypto market activity, supportive macro environment, and ETF fund inflows resuming.” CryptoQuant analyst consensus index soared from -18.3 in July to 49.2, showing significantly improved bullish sentiment. But Standard Chartered previously warned if macro deteriorates further, BTC might need to drop near $50K before reorganizing upward. This is the core market divergence now: short-term bearish, mid-term bullish. --- 🎯 OKX Perspective: My trading approach BTC strategy: · $80,000 is key support. If daily close holds above $81,000, can lightly go long with stop loss below $80,500, target $83,500-$84,000 first. · If $80,000 breaks, next support zone is $78,000-$79,000. Don’t rush to bottom-fish; wait for FOMC outcome. · Whales continue adding at 3.03 million BTC holding level; mid-term no need to be too pessimistic, but short-term volatility will be high. ETH strategy: · ETH is weaker than BTC this round; don’t blindly bottom-fish short-term. If $2,350 fails, next support is $2,280-$2,300. · But note — a whale is persistently reallocating ETH near $2,534, indicating institutional buying support at this price band. If ETH can reclaim above $2,450, consider scaling in gradually. · ETH/BTC ratio is currently low; if market stabilizes later, ETH’s upside elasticity will be greater than BTC’s. Citi’s 12-month ETH target is $3,028, implying larger gains than BTC. Overall position advice: Now is not the time to be fully invested. Post-CPI market needs time to digest; recommend maintaining 50%-60% position, keeping dry powder for lows around FOMC. Remember, whales are buying on-chain while ETFs are selling; this divergence will eventually resolve — most likely with ETF funds returning. --- 📌 OKX Community Reminder: The above is personal analysis only, not investment advice. Leverage carries risks, contracts require caution. Market moves fast, remember to set stop losses. Do you think BTC can hold $80,000? Share your thoughts in the comments👇$ETH $BTC #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight $NFLX After doubling advertising revenue, it still only accounts for about 6% of total revenue. ▪️ Announced layoffs of about 6%, approximately 1,000 people, on 10/14, the largest scale since 2022 ▪️ Covers product, technology, legal, and human resources, with the creative studio included in the list ▪️ Advertising revenue target of $3 billion by 2026, doubling year-on-year ▪️ Over 4,000 advertising clients, up 70% year-on-year ▪️ In markets where advertising slots have been opened, over 60% of new registrants choose the low-price advertising slot ▪️ Employee size increased from about 8,600 in 2019 to about 16,000 in 2025 The disagreement is not whether advertising can become a new highlight, but how much it accounts for after "doubling." $3 billion is 6% for a company with about $50 billion in annual revenue, and the layoffs this time are also 6%. Sixty percent of new users choose the low-price slot, indicating that advertising is compensating for the price given up by subscriptions—what it can make up for is growth, what it cannot is profit. The direction is to wait and see — advertising share needs to rise to double digits to be considered a new engine; staying at 6% is still just filling a gap.