wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Someone privately asked: You’re holding over ten thousand dollars worth of $BTC leveraged long positions, can you sleep at night?
The only reason I can sleep is that I admit my mistake early and set the stop loss in the system, not in my mind. It’s the same at the poker table—the real cause of bankruptcy is never the losing hand, but the stubborn "I just don’t believe it" hold.
Many people get the direction right both long and short, but still lose in the end. The problem lies in the lack of mechanical stop loss: when the price pulls back, they manually move the stop loss line, comforting themselves with "one more chance." The bulls’ current opponent isn’t the bears, but a strong dollar and a flood of hawkish statements. Protecting your principal is the only way to qualify for the next wave. Is your stop loss set in the system, or just in your heart?
Putin made a statement today: if Kaliningrad or mainland Russia is attacked, he is considering using the entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons. This is a standard geopolitical escalation news, and immediately in the comments, some people shouted, "War is coming, quickly buy coins to hedge risk."
Stop right there. I've seen too many people treat geopolitical conflicts as bullish for $BTC, only to be proven wrong time and again. The real transmission chain is often the opposite: conflict → oil prices rise → inflation sticks → interest rates become harder to cut → risk assets all get hit together. Look, oil prices are pushing up again tonight.
Gold is the traditional safe haven; Bitcoin is still a high beta risk asset from a macro perspective. Don't take gunfire as a buying reason. What do you think about the relationship between geopolitics and coin prices?
Don't just focus on US risk assets. Here's a number easily overlooked this morning: Japan's Tokyo core CPI for September is 2.7% year-on-year, while the expectation was only 2.3%, and the previous value was 1.8%—a sharp jump.
Tokyo CPI is a leading indicator for the whole country. With it heating up like this, it's like handing a knife to the Bank of Japan, giving more reason to raise interest rates. The yen is also one of the stronger G10 currencies this morning.
What does this have to do with $BTC? The world's largest cheap funding pool is the yen carry trade. Once the yen strengthens and interest rates rise, carry trades unwind, and the first to get drained are the high-risk, highly leveraged positions. Crypto isn't at the center of the storm, but it's never in the safe harbor either. Do you think the yen could become a new variable in this round?
Dallas Fed's Logan made it clear today: policy has been off track, at least another 50 basis points hike is needed, and not just once — the goal is to offset last autumn's rate cuts. This is one of the most hawkish voices among this year's voting members.
I still hold long positions in $BTC, but hearing this doesn't get me overly excited. Holding longs doesn't mean I'm bullish on the macro outlook; I'm betting that the short-term sell-off has been priced in fairly well, not that the Fed will ease.
What's the difference? Those holding longs need to have a clear cutoff for being wrong. If Logan's tone becomes consensus, rates will peak higher, and leveraged longs will have to pay the piper sooner or later. Are you betting on a rebound, or on easing? Think carefully before holding.
Don't just focus on the crypto circle when watching it. Here's a piece of news worth noting: Anthropic has scheduled an investor day before its IPO on October 14 — this AI company is one step closer to going public.
Where the money flows in the primary market is a thermometer of risk appetite. AI companies are lining up for IPOs with valuations getting more and more exaggerated, indicating that institutional money still dares to pour into the most attractive narratives. This serves as a reference for crypto: both are "high beta risk assets," and when AI draws the attention and chips of risk capital, the incremental funds for the crypto circle will be diverted.
The excitement belongs to AI; how much crypto can get depends on whose narrative is still unfinished.
Going long these past two days won me a position, and in the comments section, people started shouting "Short God smells good." The more this happens, the more I remind myself of one thing: after winning money, it's easiest to make mistakes.
There's a classic trap at the poker table—after winning a big hand and feeling confident, you try to play a bad hand next, raising more aggressively than usual, only to lose all your profits by the end of the night. Trading is exactly the same: unrealized profits make people overestimate themselves, start loosening stop losses, and casually add to positions.
I still place the stop loss for my long position where it should be. Winning doesn't mean I see things more accurately; it just means the cards happened to be in my favor this round. Feeling lucky is never a substitute for position management.
Several Federal Reserve officials' remarks tonight are a must-read for those using leverage: Cook said the inflationary pressure brought by AI development "may not ease quickly," specifically expressing concern about supply bottlenecks; Williams said AI is affecting supply in ways we don't fully understand yet.
To translate: Previously, everyone hoped AI would improve efficiency, reduce inflation, and create room for rate cuts. Now the Fed has changed its tune — this wave of crazy AI capex is pushing inflation up in the short term, not down.
This is a chronic negative for crypto: inflation won't retreat → rates won't drop → liquidity tightens. Don't expect the Fed to quickly ease and rescue the market; this tension will persist for a while. $ETH
Holding long positions, the thing I've been watching most closely these past two days isn't the coin price, but oil. Last night WTI rose another 2.7%, Brent broke through 102, Trump says oil prices will fall, but the market votes with its feet.
The logic chain is straightforward: expensive oil → sticky inflation → Fed can't ease → interest rates stay tight → those leveraged long on risk assets always have a thorn in their side. I'm currently net long, but I clearly know this hand isn't a guaranteed win—when the wind is favorable, you have to watch closely if the direction might change.
$BTC holding above 84,000 is a good thing, but I won't add positions just because of some floating profit. Players who get cocky and raise the stakes after one win at the table will sooner or later lose their chips back.
Don't just focus on the crypto circle when watching it. Tonight, a piece of news is worth the attention of traders: the California Attorney General has directly issued a subpoena to OpenAI over a cybersecurity incident and is continuing to investigate. Previously, the FTC launched a comprehensive investigation, and now the state level is also stepping in.
This AI valuation wave is supporting the confidence of the entire US tech stock market, but regulatory pressure is coming down one after another. $BTC and Nasdaq have long been tightly linked; once tech sentiment is stirred by regulation, don't expect crypto to remain unaffected.
Do you see this as negative news or just noise to be ignored?
After switching to a long position, the hardest thing to endure isn't the market, but your own mind.
Just after admitting a mistake and closing a short position to go long, if the price dips again, your mind starts to doubt: Did I misread it again? Should I switch back? This is called tilt at the table—the emotions from the last hand pollute the decisions of the next.
My method is simple but effective: once a decision is made, just watch if its invalidation condition is triggered. If not, keep quiet and hold on; don't repeatedly question yourself over minute-by-minute fluctuations. People who keep jumping back and forth can still turn profits into losses even if they pick the right direction. Do you often torture yourself like this too?"