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Those who previously shouted to wait for $PONS to drop to 0.5 to buy the dip, when it actually reached that level, many became hesitant to buy. This is actually very normal; it's human nature.
Often, what people want is not just a cheap price, but the certainty that "it won't fall further after the drop."
PONS has actually passed the worst phase now, with performance basically stable, and protocol revenue having retraced more than 90% from its peak.
Interestingly, based on the current price, the dynamic PE is only about 4–5 times.
The market is often cheapest in valuation when it is at its most pessimistic.
Currently, the 0.5 level is most likely not the final bottom; it will probably fall further later. However, I will buy a portion of my initial position at this level because I believe I cannot catch the absolute bottom, only a relatively bottom range. Big shots have monitored that the $AAVE team has been dumping for the past week
A total of 50,000 were sold, bringing out 8 million USD
There are still 30,000 coins on the books waiting to be dumped Citi just raised its Bitcoin price target to $113,000. 🎯
$BTC is testing $85,000, built on renewed ETF demand, even after ETFs just broke their inflow streak with $148.7M in outflows.
The SEC also proposed new crypto custody rules, one of Hester Peirce's final moves before she exits this week.
Not everything is clean, crypto lost $1.26B to hacks this quarter. But the institutional case keeps getting louder.
What's your $BTC target? 👇
#BTCETHETFOutflows Sometimes it's really frustrating, BTC current price 86397.5, resistance 86888.0, support 86000, should I go long or short? Lost 200,000U to realize: don't hesitate, follow the plan, open position with 5000U, stop loss at 85900, target 87000, never hold without stop loss. Trading is about execution, not prediction. $BTC #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 SAND current price is 0.06623, the 4-hour MA bullish alignment remains intact, MACD is still diverging upwards, but RSI has already hit the 75 overbought zone. CoinGlass data is more direct, with a large amount of long liquidation piled up below 0.0608, and upward space is being suppressed. The cost-effectiveness of chasing longs at this position is very low, the risk-reward ratio is not favorable.
Just placed my thermos on the windowsill, a car downstairs has been lingering at the gate for a long time without entering.
The SEC chair is calling for stocks to be on-chain, XRP's AI payments have exceeded ten million transactions, BTC is holding near 83000 against US Treasury yields. The overall environment leans toward greed, but the greedier it gets, the more you have to guard against sudden drops. SAND’s overbought structure has a higher probability of short-term pullback than continuing to surge.
In terms of operation, do not chase longs. Wait for a pullback to the 0.0625 to 0.0635 range to lightly enter longs, set stop loss at 0.0605; if it breaks below the dense liquidation zone, exit immediately. Take profit targets are first at 0.0685, second at 0.0710. If the price first surges above 0.069 but volume does not keep up, reverse to short with stop loss at 0.0705 and target a pullback to 0.064. The core advice is: do not chase overbought, wait for pullback confirmation before acting.
Shift change now, going to take a short nap.
$SNDK
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
@OKX星球 BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously bleed out, short-term heat cools down
US crypto ETF capital shows signs of cooling. On September 30, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $148.7 million, breaking the previous nine consecutive days and a cumulative inflow of about $3.1 billion; Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $59.6 million on the same day, also ending continuous inflows.
However, this seems more like a brief pause after strong prior inflows. In September, Bitcoin spot ETFs still recorded a net inflow of $2.65 billion, and Ethereum spot ETFs had an inflow of $832 million, both at relatively high levels since October 2025. On October 1, Bitcoin ETFs resumed net inflows of $102.7 million, while Ethereum ETFs continued net outflows of $55.4 million, showing a divergence with BTC relatively stable and ETH weaker.
Price support remains, with BTC around $86,600, ETH about $2,735, and the Fear and Greed Index at 69, indicating a warm but not overheated sentiment. Going forward, attention will focus on whether ETFs can return to continuous net inflows and the impact of the October 8 US initial jobless claims data on interest rate expectations.
A single day of outflow does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal, but the cost-effectiveness of chasing highs is indeed declining. If both continue to have synchronized net outflows, volatility risk increases; if BTC recovers inflows first, ETH is expected to follow with a rebound.
The above is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC's current strength makes people miss out, but is the real killer move still ahead?
Why say that? From the low 60,000s bottom, it directly squeezed up to the high 80,000s, with all the chasing funds fully consumed. Now the 80,000 level is holding firm, indicating support far beyond expectations. On the macro side, Goldman Sachs pushed the rate hike concerns from October to December, effectively adding two months of liquidity buffer. If during this period BTC continues to consolidate or even breaks previous highs, the altcoin season might be completely ignited.
But don't just watch the excitement; ETF funds show subtle differentiation. BTC spot sees continuous inflows, while ETH is experiencing outflows, clearly indicating funds clustering around the main theme. Like my 3x short perpetual on SOL entered at 107.78, now marked at 119.31, with a floating drawdown of 32%. It's definitely stubborn, but it also shows extreme volatility and fragmentation in altcoins.
As long as the main theme holds, don't easily go against the trend to catch falling knives. If the macro buffer period materializes, BTC stabilizes and altcoins go wild, but coin selection must consider ETF expectations and ecosystem fundamentals. Retail investors, don't imitate my leveraged positions; control leverage and keep enough ammunition for certainty.
BTC spot ETF continuous inflows, ETH outflows, macro rate hike delay is key
BTC ETH # LIT has experienced a noticeable pullback in the past few days, causing many to worry that there might be issues with the project.
However, from the current perspective, it looks more like a round of capital and expectation readjustment.
There are several main reasons for this decline:
First, the previous gains were too rapid, leading to concentrated profit-taking.
LIT was previously driven by expectations such as perpetual DEX, on-chain trading growth, and buyback and burn mechanisms. Short-term funds poured in massively, and after the price rose, it naturally faced pressure to realize profits.
Second, the market is reassessing future growth expectations.
Previously, funds gave LIT a high valuation because the market was optimistic about the development of the on-chain derivatives sector. But when expectations can no longer be raised, high-valuation assets often face adjustments first.
Third, the entire altcoin market has seen increased volatility recently.
During BTC's upward phase, funds tend to flow first to assets with higher certainty; when the market starts to fluctuate, high-beta altcoins often become the first choice for funds to adjust positions.
The core logic of LIT has not actually changed.
On-chain perpetual trading remains an important sector in the crypto market; trading volume, user growth, and revenue capability are the ultimate value supports.
Next, focus on three signals:
① Whether Lighter's trading volume continues to grow
② Whether platform revenue continues to increase
③ Whether the buyback and burn mechanism continues to be fulfilled
My view:
This pullback seems more like a shift from "speculating on expectations" back to "focusing on fundamentals."
In the short term, we need to wait for capital to reconfirm; in the medium to long term, it still depends on whether the perpetual DEX sector can continue to expand.
The market will never reward stories alone; it will ultimately return to real data.
$LIT Perpetual Futures Regulation Shift: $HYPE Only Rises 1.01% in One Hour
With major regulatory moves hitting, $HYPE climbed from 90.38 to 91.29 in one hour, up just 1.01%—Hyperliquid calls on the EU to classify perpetual futures under MiFID II instead of MiCA, saying it doesn't match the level; I'm bullish, no detours.
The real main event is the capital side. The Assistance Fund has hoarded 47.63 million HYPE, with another $14.5 million buyback arriving tomorrow; the liquidation map is also reliable, showing $120 million to $125 million short liquidations above the current price—pushing up means a short squeeze.
The market itself is cooperating. 24h volume to 30-day average ratio is 1.568, showing increased volume; RSI at 51.4 is neutral; long-to-short account ratio is 1.6434, leaning bullish; BTC stands above 86500, up 3.12% in 24h, with a solid base following the rise.
Resistance above: 91.38 (24h high), break through to watch 91.97
Support below: 86.72 (daily MA30)
Current price 91.29, enter long directly, stop loss if it breaks below 86.72, if it holds above 91.38 target 91.97.
Like and follow, key levels will be called out immediately.
$HYPE $BTCToday someone in the group asked Ajian how to judge if the AI market has peaked. Besides the $NVDA that everyone watches, I mainly look at three things: HBM orders, data center capital expenditures, and AI revenue from cloud providers. If all three are growing, it proves that AI capital spending is still ongoing. If orders rise but revenue falls, then caution is needed. And if capital expenditures start to be cut, that could be a real signal of a cycle turning point $AVAX has the opportunity to benefit from incremental growth in on-chain applications and institutional experiments, but deploying projects does not equal sustained trading. The market now rewards growth that can be realized; idle narratives struggle to support valuations. What I am watching is the follow-through after volume expansion: hold the breakout level to continue looking higher, and if it falls back, lower the expectations.You hit the most critical point, this is the biggest trap tonight.
*Weak NFP ≠ Blindly bullish*, there are two types of weakness:
*1. Just right weakness 50-70K unemployment rate 4.2% = $BTC truly rising*
This is Goldilocks, the most comfortable.
Fed pressure decreases + economy not yet in recession, rate cut trades are purely positive.
$BTC should *show volume + hold steady at $85,200-$85,640*, this is what you called 💪 truly strong, directly aiming for $86K → $87,232, this is when I will chase.
*2. Too weak weakness <30K / unemployment rate 4.4%+ = $BTC fake rise but real fall*
Market narrative will instantly switch from "rate cut positive" to "recession panic."
Refer to August 2 NFP surprise 114K, $BTC then surged to $64K but dropped back to $60K the same day.
US stocks fell, oil price $100, US Treasury yields actually fell due to risk aversion, but all risk assets were sold off.
This is what you called ⚠️ *Weak NFP + $BTC not following the rise = warning signal*, even if it rises for 30 minutes then falls back, it's more dangerous.
*So how do I see $BTC reacting tonight:*
- *Weak NFP + $BTC volume breakout above $85,640 + ETF inflow >150 million + $ETH/$SOL rising along* = truly strong, buy after 15-minute close confirmation. First simultaneous double outflow after continuous inflows❗BTC and ETH ETFs both turned to outflows, causing a sharp drop in capital heat
On September 30, U.S. spot crypto ETFs saw synchronized cooling in capital flows: Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $148.7 million, ending a previous streak of 9 consecutive trading days with a cumulative net inflow of about $3.1 billion; Ethereum spot ETFs also had a net outflow of $59.6 million on the same day, ending their continuous inflows.
However, this appears more like a short-term pause after continuous inflows rather than a complete retreat of institutional demand. In September, Bitcoin spot ETFs still recorded a net inflow of $2.65 billion, and Ethereum spot ETFs had an inflow of $832 million, both at relatively high levels since October 2025. As of October 1, Bitcoin ETFs still had a single-day net inflow of $102.7 million, while Ethereum ETFs continued net outflows of $55.4 million, structurally showing "BTC relatively stable, ETH weaker."
Price support remains: BTC is around $86,600, ETH about $2,735, and the Fear and Greed Index stands at 69 in the greed zone, indicating a warm sentiment but not extreme. Going forward, two key points to watch: first, whether ETF capital flows can return to continuous net inflows; second, the impact of the October 8 U.S. initial jobless claims data and subsequent inflation and Federal Reserve statements on interest rate expectations.
In the short term, it is not advisable to interpret single-day outflows directly as a trend reversal, but the decline in capital heat means the cost-effectiveness of chasing highs has decreased. If BTC and ETH both again show synchronized net outflows, increased volatility should be watched for; if BTC leads in resuming inflows, ETH may still follow with recovery.Today is not just one piece of good news, but four accounts turning positive simultaneously.
Bitcoin touched around $86,900 intraday, up about 3% in 24 hours, the highest since September 23; Ethereum reached around 2750, SOL and XRP followed with about 3% gains, and the total market cap returned to approximately $2.9 trillion.
#Bitcoin #ETF #FederalReserve #Uptober #NonFarm
① ETF funds are back On October 1, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $103 million. BlackRock IBIT added about $196 million in one day, while Fidelity was exiting. The previous day had an outflow of $149 million, breaking a nine-day inflow streak; this inflow reversed the direction. In August and September, ETFs saw inflows of about $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion respectively, so the foundation remains solid.
② Investment banks raised target prices Citi raised the 12-month Bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000, and Ethereum from 2240 to 3030. The market likes to hear these numbers, but it doesn't mean prices will reach them.
③ Rate hike expectations eased The probability of a 25 basis point hike in October dropped from nearly 65% a week ago to around 26% now. Federal Reserve officials stated they are not in a hurry to raise rates again, so risk assets have already priced in a "pause."
④ Shorts were partially squeezed About $90 million to $120 million in short positions were liquidated within an hour, with about $320 million liquidated across the market in 24 hours. Once the price passed $86,000, stop-loss orders helped push it further.
Adding a seasonal narrative: In the past 13 Octobers, Bitcoin rose in 10 of them, with an average gain close to 19%. Bitcoin rose about 40% in Q3, the strongest quarter since the end of 2024. Some call this Uptober.
There is only one pitfall: this round is not a safe haven. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains between 5.25%–5.34%, the 30-year touched 5.62%, and the US dollar index hit an 18-month high. Gold fell 8.5% in September, while Bitcoin rose about 12% in the same period. QCP’s judgment is straightforward: this is a flow-driven trade, not an inflation hedge. The $82,500 level was tested three times this week but not broken; $87,400 is the threshold to $90,000. Tonight’s US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to add about 90,000 jobs with a 4.1% unemployment rate. If the data is strong, the pause in rate hikes story could be revised.
What you are buying today is ETF inflows, rate hike pause, and short squeezes—not the starting gun of a new bull market.
Which one are you watching more closely: the ETF or tonight’s Nonfarm?
$BTC $ETH $OKB 💧 LIQUIDITY QUALITY TEST
$WLD: spread 0.019% | top-5 bid depth $42.1K
$OKB: spread 0.008% | top-5 bid depth $9.8K
$GRVT: spread 0.055% | top-5 bid depth $186
$WLD has the deepest visible bid support in this snapshot. Which coin would you trust in fast volatility?
$OKB $GRVT $WLD
#TraderDesk #Crypto
⚠️ NFA — manage risk and DYOR.A 0.30% margin rate, I really can't gamble anymore this time, I have to reduce my position!
Brothers, looking at the red-hot profits in my account, my back feels a chill. Just a few days ago, I said I could sleep after reducing my position, but when the market pulled up, my gambler's mindset kicked in again, and I didn't dare cut more of my position. Today, I see the margin ratio has dropped to a terrifying 0.30%!
Position update:
BCH: Full position 10X, entry at 261.02, mark at 316.94. Position size has dropped to 1,975.87U, margin 197.58U, unrealized profit +348.66U, ROI as high as +176.47%. From being deeply stuck to now doubling, this "living on the edge" really paid off! SOL: Full position 20X, entry at 115.63, mark at 122.21. Position size 6,470.40U, unrealized profit +355.88U, ROI +110.13%, also steadily earning me more than double.
$ETH: Finally showing some promise! Full position 5X, entry at 2718.24, mark at 2747.74, unrealized profit +23.97U (+5.37%), the mud is barely propped up. $ETH $BCH $SOL
To speak from the heart: the total unrealized profit from these three positions exceeds 728U, which looks very satisfying on paper. But I can't smile at all now. What does 0.30% mean? It's like putting a noose around your neck; if the market sneezes even a little, or a pin pricks, this 700+ U profit along with the principal will instantly be wiped out!
From the initial 0.39% to the later 0.58%, every time I was dancing on the edge of the abyss. I'm already very content with this profit; one shouldn't be too greedy. Not being greedy for the last bite and putting real money safely in your pocket is what really counts. Tonight, I must, immediately, reduce my position! Raise this deadly margin rate, protect this 700+ U victory fruit, and have a good, peaceful sleep.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Crypto Review: Pump and Dump, Position "Blood Transfusion" First
Interest rate hike expectations postponed, September non-farm payrolls pushed into the spotlight; capital flow shows divergence—Bitcoin ETF has attracted funds for 9 consecutive days, while ETH has turned to outflows.
The early morning market felt like a shuttle run. BTC suddenly surged late at night, with 86000 within reach, but before bulls could celebrate, a large bearish candle smashed it back to the starting point. ETH surged and then fell in sync, prices circling, but positions have already changed hands.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $102 million: longs $43.03 million, shorts $59.59 million, largest single liquidation $6.91 million, 6,538 people exited, BTC volatility exceeded 3.34%. ETH liquidations totaled $64.84 million, longs $38.4 million, shorts $26.44 million, largest single liquidation $4.1 million, 4,050 forced exits, volatility over 3.04%. Those chasing the rally got trapped, and those trying to top out were also liquidated—a typical long-short double kill.
However, the upward structure of BTC and ETH remains intact. Sharp drops and slow rises are part of the bull trend's shakeout rhythm. High liquidation volume indicates sentiment is still fervent; this kind of cleansing may not be bad and could actually help the subsequent movement be more stable.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Purely derivative-driven rallies (short squeezes, long leverage increases) are often short-lived and prone to rapid pullbacks.
Spot capital-driven moves mean there is real money backing them, making the market more solid and sustainable. Short squeezes can ignite the market, but whether the momentum continues depends crucially on whether ETF and spot buying persist.
Key points to watch going forward usually are:
Whether ETF funds continue to see net inflows.
Whether leverage heats up quickly.
How option hedging flows change when the price approaches or breaks 90k.The founder of Aave directly criticized the EU.
He said that the proposed DeFi rules under MiCA might create a "walled garden."
To translate: in the future, if you want to use decentralized lending, you might have to go through certification and suitability tests first.
In plain terms, it means—checking your identity at the door.
The interesting part is that the EU is not trying to ban DeFi, but wants to regulate it like a bank.
But the most valuable thing about DeFi is that it requires no permission and no approval.
If you impose a certification system on it, it's like turning a convenience store into a club that requires a membership card.
I think in the short term, this won't have a direct impact on coin prices, so don't overinterpret it.
What we really need to watch is: if the EU really implements this, will other regions follow?
On this issue, I side with Aave. Regulation is fine, but don't regulate it to death.
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC Regarding the ETH upgrade narrative, I am more concerned about whether the next step can be fulfilled.
The Ethereum Foundation announced on September 28 that the Glamsterdam plan is scheduled to activate on the Sepolia testnet at 21:53:36 Beijing time on October 6; as of this check, the activation time for Hoodi and the mainnet is still undetermined.
This means that an observable technical milestone is already on the agenda, but there is still a verification process before the mainnet launch. Calling the testnet plan a "mainnet benefit already realized" skips the most critical part.
Key points in the announcement include incorporating the separation of block proposers and builders into the protocol, as well as block-level access lists, aiming to provide a foundation for higher execution throughput. At the same time, the Gas billing rules have been adjusted, and applications need to verify compatibility; this does not mean that all users' fees will immediately decrease.
My order of focus is: whether the testnet activation proceeds as planned, whether clients and applications adapt smoothly, and then whether a clear mainnet schedule emerges. These developments help judge whether the narrative is moving forward more than just saying "the upgrade will cause a price increase."
For $ETH, technical progress and market pricing are two lines that need to be observed simultaneously. Smooth testing can increase confidence in implementation but cannot directly prove that the price will rise; if key arrangements change, the timing expectations should be reassessed.
I favor testing the upgrade narrative with real progress rather than prematurely counting all expectations as already realized benefits.
#ETH #Ethereum There is a kind of trade even more frustrating than being wrong about the direction: being right but not making money.
As soon as you make a little profit, you want to run: "Take the profit first, play it safe."
When losing, you hold on: "Wait a bit longer, it should come back."
Then you take small profits and leave, but suffer big losses and stay, while the market keeps moving in the original predicted direction. Does this sound like something that has happened in your account?
When doing trend strategies, I care more about this question: Why are you willing to be so patient with losses, but when it comes to profits, you can't wait even a minute?
Of course, this is not encouraging stubborn holding. Exit when the exit conditions are met, and don't change your plan just because you're afraid of giving back profits.
Do you have a trade where the price movement after closing still sticks in your memory? Let's talk about it; it's more interesting than just shouting long or short.
#TradingInsights #TrendTrading #AlgorithmicTrading
Past performance does not guarantee future results.Attention! BTC current price 86397.5, resistance 86888.0, support 86000, obvious resistance above, do not chase highs. I opened a position with 5000U, stop loss at 85900, target 87000, always use stop loss to avoid holding losing positions. Losing 200,000U trying to recover, reminding everyone: control your position size well, do not go all in. $BTC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Tech stocks' positive news can't drive the US stock market? The index rises again, but tech stocks are diverging? This might be the main rhythm of the US stock Q3 earnings season and also lays the groundwork for a market breakout in Q4!
This week, two key narratives for tech stocks: Nvidia significantly increased its buyback quota + Micron's excellent earnings report, giving tech stocks more market confidence. However, it's clear that while some individual stocks performed well, they did not lead to a broad rally; often the index is down, and many individual stocks are weak.
The core issue remains the heavy macro pressure. Although the October rate hike expectations have been weakened, the December rate hike expectations have not been avoided. So macro-wise, "money" is too expensive now, and the market is more selective about paying for current corporate valuations—buyers choose the stronger and more stable ones.
Therefore, under unfavorable macro conditions, the tech sector will show relative divergence, with funds buying the strong players and waiting on the sidelines for others. If by late October the macro environment hasn't improved, the earnings expectations for tech stocks will become even stricter.
Of course, if the US stock market undergoes valuation adjustments due to macro pressure and earnings from October to November, many companies' stock prices might face another round of valuation cuts. Subsequently, as long as the rate hike environment improves, the Middle East situation eases, and energy prices fall, Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 are actually quite promising.
Especially combined with the midterm elections, November is the decisive moment. Historically, after November, the US stock market is very likely to experience a rally. So looking back at the current stage, it's not pessimism but opportunity! #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Less than a day left, about $14.5 million is set to enter the Hyperliquid Assistance Fund to buy back HYPE.
HL HUB Community (Odaily/ChainCatcher report on 10/2) states: Hyperliquid expects to receive the first AQAv2 reserve revenue distribution tomorrow (10/3). Approximately $14.5 million in USDC reserve passive income will flow into the Assistance Fund to buy back HYPE. Mechanically, stablecoin deployers allocate 90% of reserve income to the protocol, and 100% of this income is used to buy back and burn HYPE; settlements occur on a 30-day cycle, with automatic transfer to the Assistance Fund on the 8th day after the cycle ends. The official accrual started on 8/26, with the first payment scheduled for 10/3. At the time of writing, OKX HYPE is about 91.26. Receipt does not mean all buybacks are complete; figures adjust with announcements/community monitoring and do not determine price direction. This is not investment advice.The key is the September non-farm payrolls at 20:30 Beijing time tonight! The earlier PCE and ADP reports were just warm-ups! Is the big one coming?! 🤔 Up or down? If the data is clearly stronger than expected, the dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to surge, and BTC will probably crash. If weaker than expected, rate hike expectations will fall back, the dollar will retreat, and crypto will definitely rally first. $BTC has been consolidating recently around 82,000–85,000, with resistance Does the price always immediately rebound right after you stop loss? Then you start doubting yourself, deciding not to stop loss next time, only to hold the position until liquidation? BTC current price 86397.5, resistance 86888.0, support 86000, I open a position with 5000U, stop loss at 85900, target 87000, never hold a position without stop loss. Only after losing 200,000U did I realize: stop loss is not admitting defeat, it's protecting your principal. $BTC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $AVAX Position logic of this ID: Established position yesterday afternoon, maximum loss of 3 points, did not break below the pivot zone, continue holding until now, waiting for the explosive non-farm payroll data tonight.
Viewpoint of this ID
AVAX 30-minute level started from the low of 10.329, forming an upward continuation pivot zone, currently slowly grinding near the upper edge of the pivot zone, waiting for a volume breakout. Entry: wait for a minor pullback without breaking the pivot zone ZG, and enter again when a bottom fractal signal appears; Stop loss: placed below the pivot zone ZD.
Chan Theory Structure
This round's 30-minute low is 10.329, previous high 12.007. The pivot zone ZG is about 11.25, ZD about 10.80. After the market bottomed, it completed a wave of rally, then entered a pivot zone oscillation with repeated grinding. The current price is running close to the upper edge of the pivot zone; if volume breaks above ZG and holds, forming a third buy structure, there is a chance to challenge the previous high of 12.007; if it pulls back into the pivot zone, the market will continue to consolidate; breaking below the 10.329 low will invalidate this upward structure.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
The rally from 10.329 showed obvious volume increase, with capital entering to support the bottom. After entering the pivot zone, overall volume has significantly narrowed, and selling pressure gradually reduced. At this stage, the volume near the upper edge of the pivot zone is moderate, without strong bullish attack volume; this slow upward attack is easily met with resistance and pullback. To break through effectively, a volume-increasing bullish candle confirming demand is needed.
Core Observation
Focus on the effectiveness of the breakout above the 11.25 pivot zone upper edge. BTC kicked me off the bus, but my altcoin is about to 2x... 😭➡️🚀
5 hours to Non-Farm Payroll and my portfolio is a mess.
My perfect Short Grid for BTC / ETH / SOL got REKT today.
BTC grid: -16.65% LOSS
Why? BTC pumped to $85k and OKX showed: "Price out of range, strategy has paused."
Bro, you didn't even let me earn grid fees, you just kicked me out.
ETH and SOL grids also in unpaired loss, bleeding...
$BTC #SOL #RESOLV #NonFarmPayroll #ShortGrid #Altcoins #TradingStrategy #OKXBuilder#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Sellers are stepping aside, and Bitcoin price ($BTC) continues to rise.
The $85,000 sell orders were partially filled, with the remaining sell orders withdrawn, leaving little resistance above.
The price has now reached the next cluster of sell orders near $87,000, about half the size of the previous sell wall.
Bitcoin's relative strength is returning.
In June this year, Bitcoin ($BTC)
outperformed the S&P 500 on only one-fifth of trading days, marking its worst performance in six years.
Now, with the stock market flat, Bitcoin's win rate has returned to above 50%. This indicates an unusually strong demand for Bitcoin itself. There are rumors that Trump is considering removing three officials from the Federal Reserve, but it would be quite difficult to execute. This clearly seems to be paving the way for a possible future shift in monetary policy.
I currently hold two short positions: $ZEC with an unrealized loss of 2U, and $ZRO with an unrealized loss of 0.89U, both still held. News of high-level personnel changes is the easiest to spark market fantasies about easing. If everyone starts thinking that future rate hikes are off the table, risk appetite will rise, altcoins will fly wildly, and my two shorts—especially the 50x $ZEC one—probably won’t hold up for long. It has already dropped more than 4% since yesterday, but the current price of 1379.5 is just a bit above my cost of 1378, so it rebounds very quickly.
My response is simple: watch the price. If this news gains traction and pushes $ZEC from 1379.5 up sharply to around 1400, I will immediately close the $ZEC short to save myself. The 3x $ZRO position can be watched a bit longer.
Of course, this news might just be a leak to test market reaction. If $ZEC can’t even hold above 1380, it means no one really cares about this news, so my positions aren’t really threatened.
We’ll see how it goes. Good afternoon, everyone.What does BTC look like now?
It's like a game that has already started, but the referee hasn't blown the crucial whistle yet.
Today BTC returned to around $86,000, with the market clearly more active than in the past few days. Meanwhile, the cumulative net inflow of the US spot BTC ETF in September was about $2.65 billion, the second highest monthly inflow since October 2025. On October 1, the ETF also recorded a net inflow of about $103 million. (The Block)
The funds haven't completely left.
But the issue now is that the market is about to face the US September non-farm payrolls.
Currently, the market expects about 90,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. This data could directly affect the market's judgment on the Fed's interest rate path in October. (Reuters)
So what really matters for BTC tonight is not just the price movement.
On the upside, watch around $87,000.
On the downside, focus on the $85,000 area.
If BTC stays suppressed near $87,000 before the non-farm data, it means funds are still waiting for confirmation; if there is a sudden volume surge at this key level, the market rhythm could change rapidly.
The biggest contradiction now is:
ETF funds have returned, BTC has stood back above $86,000, but the macro data that can truly change market expectations hasn't landed yet.
Don't rush to guess the answer tonight.
Because the moment the market really chooses a direction may be right after the data is released.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
$BTC BTC kicked me off the bus, but my altcoin is about to 2x... 😭➡️🚀 5 hours to Non-Farm Payroll and my portfolio is a mess. My perfect Short Grid for BTC / ETH / SOL got REKT today. BTC grid: -16.65% LOSS Why? BTC pumped to $85k and OKX showed: "Price out of range, strategy has paused." Bro, you didn't even let me earn grid fees, you just kicked me out. ETH and SOL grids also in unpaired loss, bleeding... BUT WAIT. That random RESOLV short I opened with only $1.24 margin? Now +1.3U profit = +94.#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
The September non-farm payrolls will be announced tonight, with interest rate hike expectations becoming the focus.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital enthusiasm.
The September non-farm payrolls will be released at 8:30 PM tonight. Reuters surveys expect an increase of 90,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. These are just expectations. If employment and wages both come in strong, concerns about rate hikes may heat up again. We can't just focus on new job additions.
Let's update the ETF data for $BTC first. On September 30, the US saw a net outflow of about $148.7 million, but on October 1, it turned into a net inflow of $102.7 million. This inflow hasn't yet made up for the previous day's outflow, but at least buying interest has reappeared. I'm more concerned whether this demand can continue after the non-farm payrolls. If rate hike expectations ease and inflows continue, the rebound will have a stronger foundation; only if sentiment heats up, the momentum may still be insufficient.
For $ETH, the capital performance is weaker. On September 30, there was a net outflow of about $59.6 million, and on October 1, outflows continued with about $55.4 million, marking three consecutive trading days of net outflows. I won't yet equate macroeconomic warming directly with a catch-up rally for it. First, let's see if redemptions converge, then look for new buying interest. The same non-farm payroll data affects different assets differently, and this must be judged in combination with their own capital situations.
In the latest trading day, BTC and ETH diverged again. Tonight, we need to look at interest rate expectations and actual capital flows together.#BTCETHETFOutflows The interesting part isn't that ETF flows turned negative. It's that BTC and ETH are now seeing outflows together 👀
BTC funds lost ~$173M after a nine-session $3.1B inflow streak, while ETH logged a third straight day of outflows.
With BTC profit-taking hitting a YTD high and spot demand cooling, this looks like a real test of who buys next.
A pause after strong inflows is normal. Persistent outflows would tell a very different story.$GALA
The blockchain gaming sector is warming up together today, and it's leading the way upward.
GALA rose 11.16 points intraday, priced at 0.0025, with trading volume reaching 30 million USD.
This kind of small-cap old coin rises fast and falls fast too; we won't chase the highs, and will let go if it falls below 0.0024.
$GALA
$GALA It is expected to fluctuate for a while until the 120 moving average comes down before it can continue to break down. Let's see if the MACD will form a death cross downward; if upward, there is a small resistance at 0.236, if downward, there is a resistance at 181.92. There has been a bottom touch now, waiting online for two large bearish candles to break 181.92. If it can't break, a second bottom touch with insufficient rebound strength is also possible. The two bearish divergences indeed indicate a downward trend.
This trade was impulsive; I didn't choose a good risk-reward point. Opened at 183, the risk-reward ratio is exactly 1:3, too foolish, too foolish, too foolish.
It's not that the short position is problematic, but the entry point is. I hope everything goes as I said, leaving it to time. If this trade is wrong, I still need time to reflect.$ZRO The most concerning issue is not the price fluctuation itself, but that after the price moves a certain distance, participation does not keep up.
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.05 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour trends appearing strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candlestick to confirm.
The current price is 1.846, about 11.16% above the 1-hour support at 1.64, and about 5.20% below the resistance at 1.942. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 1.942 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it falls below 1.64, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 1.481. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 1.942 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
Is this volume contraction movement a sign of stable chips, or is the market lacking relay momentum?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.📈 Current SOL Market Status
• Technical Perspective: SOL is currently consolidating in the $120-124 range. The MACD indicator is nearly flat, indicating a brief balance between bulls and bears. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting the market is awaiting guidance on the direction of a major move.
• Capital Perspective: The previous rally was high quality, with SOL application revenue hitting a 9-month high in September ($180 million), and a weekly net inflow of $188 million into Solana spot ETFs. However, recent signs of capital outflow (ETF net outflows for two consecutive days) reflect profit-taking pressure at elevated levels.
🕒 Key Monitoring Tips for Tonight
• First 10 minutes: Focus on the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the 10-year US Treasury yield. Rising rate hike expectations will suppress SOL. When the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5.3%, risk assets (including SOL) may come under pressure.
• Post-data Watershed: Bulls need to effectively break and hold above $124.95 (recent resistance) to open up upside potential; bears, if they drive the price to break below the $116 support level, may weaken the short-term trend. Many people think trading is about predicting, but actually trading is about responding. BTC current price 86397.5, resistance 86888.0, support 86000, I open a position with 5000U, stop loss at 85900, target 87000, never hold a position without a stop loss. Only after losing 200,000U do you realize: first think about how much you can afford to lose, then think about how much to gain. $BTC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC The big non-farm payrolls storm is brewing — tonight, I'm on the bulls' side. 🔥🔥
Let's get to the conclusion first, so no one has to guess: personally, I'm firmly bullish.
It's not about sentiment, it's about logic. The market situation is clear — $BTC $ETH net capital inflow has turned from positive to negative, the heat is cooling down, many are panicking, thinking a crash is coming. But if you zoom out a bit: BTC and ETH haven't really moved away, they're still accumulating. In the afternoon, BTC pulled up to 86900 and hit resistance, ETH topped at 2777 and faced resistance; this is not distribution, it's high-level digestion and consolidation. The pullback doesn't break key levels, the support below is solid, this is the foundation for the bulls.
Macro pressure is indeed significant, but the main players are smarter than anyone. Before the data drops, they don't bother choosing a direction — so all the breakouts and drops these past two days are fake moves, all traps. Who gets scared off? The itchy-handed short-term traders and reckless buyers chasing highs.
- Buy on BTC pullback not breaking 85000, ETH not breaking 2680
A word of caution upfront: when the non-farm payrolls are released, there can easily be spikes at night, and high leverage has very low tolerance for errors. Whoever doesn't use stop-loss is basically giving money to the market. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 LINK shows a divergence between short-term market action and news. The CCIP 2.0 upgrade and short covering pushed the price above 14.50, but the hourly chart is still pressured by the moving average system, MACD is in a bearish formation, and the proportion of active selling is relatively high, indicating insufficient buying momentum currently.
In terms of liquidation distribution, there is a high density of short liquidations stacked between 14.50 and 14.80, forming an upward bull trap target; below around 14.00 there is large-scale long stop-loss liquidity. The current pattern looks more like an initial upward spike to clear shorts, then a pressured pullback to sweep out the longs below.
I just delivered a meal to the office building entrance, and during the system's order dispatch interval, I glanced at the trade distribution; active sell orders indeed have not decreased.
The strategy is mainly to short on rebounds. Entry range is set between 14.55 and 14.75, waiting for the price to enter this zone to short in batches. Take profit is near 14.05, with stop loss defended above 15.05. If volume increases and price stabilizes above 15.10, the short thesis is invalidated, and exit immediately without holding.
$LINK
#Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议
@OKX星球 🌍Planet Evening News
Fiserv's digital asset platform has officially launched, with the USD-backed stablecoin issued by a North Dakota bank becoming its first use case.
This stablecoin operates on the Solana platform and aims to support interbank transactions among more than 90 participating banks and credit unions in the state.
$SOL What is $SAND? I just didn't check the market for a few hours, and it's so extremely overbought without a pullback of a few points? I'll just take profit at three or four points. The fee has even jumped to an hour. Although I haven't lost much, I'll add a position and see. The 50x leverage was reduced to 40x leverage, and the position was directly doubled. The average price is 0.06092. I'll wait until around 8 o'clock; if it doesn't work out, I'll just dump it. Anyway, for me, it's like I haven't lost anything. $ETH I said it yesterday!
If you think it can't fall any further, then you've already fallen into the dog trader's trap.
Don't compare $ZEC with Bitcoin or Ethereum; it isn't qualified to be called a mainstream coin yet. At the end of the day, it's still an altcoin.
Bitcoin and Ethereum can hold steady or even go up, but ZEC keeps falling round after round. Why?
Because the bubble is too big, and the bottom hasn't been solidly established.
It dropped all the way from 1697 to 1305, with each rebound weaker than the last, volume shrinking smaller and smaller, and all moving averages pressing down on it.
Don't be fooled. This isn't a shakeout; this is a trend.
Don't listen to the dog traders shouting about good news; this is a downtrend, with whales cashing out at the top.
I opened a short at 1405 yesterday, now floating with a 52% profit. I called it yesterday, and today it directly broke below 1300.
Today, 1300 is the challenge line.
If 1300 doesn't hold today, then tomorrow it will head to 1200.
Once this weakening trend forms, it won't end easily.
As long as it dares to rise, that's our opportunity to short.
Those who follow the trend prosper; those who go against it perish. Don't try to catch the bottom, don't hold the position. At this time, shorting is the way to go.
$BTC $ETH#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $BTC Nonfarm payrolls at 20:30 tonight, I choose to hold no position and won't fight battles without confidence
Check the market at 7 PM
BTC is around 86,000, less than an hour and a half before the nonfarm data
Tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time) the nonfarm data will be released
I cleared my positions, holding no position waiting for the data
Briefly about the connection between nonfarm and BTC
The market expects September nonfarm to add 100,000 jobs, previous was 160,000
Unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%
If data is weak, rate hike expectations cool down, funds flow back, BTC continues to surge
If data is strong, rate hike expectations heat up, funds withdraw, BTC under pressure
Tonight's direction depends entirely on this one number
My judgment
Positions cleared, holding no position waiting for data
No directional bets, no gambling on data
Enter again once the data clarifies direction, no rush for this one hour
Resistance above at 87,000, support below at 80,000
Break whichever side, follow that side, no early positioning
Are you holding no position or holding positions tonight?
Which side are you betting on for nonfarm? Chat in the comments👇
$BTC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $PUMP is still within the range, no rush to take sides yet
The current price is still between the previous high and low points, with no new direction established. I prefer to wait for the closing position before making a decision. The high and low points from the past few hours are 0.006121 / 0.005719 USDT, and the just closed 5-minute candle is at 0.00592 USDT.
There has been no significant increase in volume in the last 15 minutes. This indicates no obvious volume support during this period, with the price moving back and forth in the middle of the range, and it’s unclear which side is more active for now.📰 【Aave Founder Stani Criticizes European Regulators for Restricting DeFi Access: Could Harm Open Financial Networks】
BlockBeats reports that on October 2, Aave founder Stani Kulechov expressed disappointment with the European Central Bank (ECB) and European Banking Authority (EBA) responses to the MiCA consultation. He pointed out that these institutions not only advocate banning stablecoin yield payments but also suggest restricting crypto asset service providers (CASPs) from offering users access to DeFi channels, including yield protocols involving stablecoins not authorized under MiCA, without clarifying the actual enforcement framework. Stani also mentioned that the proposals suggest limiting the user base eligible to access DeFi through so-called "appropriateness tests" and are considering restrictions on DeFi lending protocols...
In essence, Europe's move is trying to force DeFi into the banking framework: first cutting stablecoin yields, then blocking access channels, and finally even controlling who qualifies to use it. The most valuable aspect of open finance is precisely its low barriers; if this is truly implemented, innovation will likely just move elsewhere. Do you think this proposal can ultimately be pushed through? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Can $NEAR AI narratives bring sustained on-chain demand?
NEAR is among the public chain assets with high market attention. AI-related products can bring new user entry points, but the token value still depends on whether these users generate sustainable on-chain activity.
If product hype rises but network fees and active users do not improve, valuation expansion needs to be reconsidered.Most cryptocurrencies tell their story around "scarcity," while Dogecoin tells its story around "spending."
It has no maximum supply. The chain produces one block per minute, with a fixed reward of 10,000 coins per block, adding about 5.3 billion new coins annually. Spread across a supply in the hundreds of billions, the dilution rate decreases year by year but never reaches zero.
Critics focus on the phrase "infinite issuance," assuming it will dilute value. The community sees another logic: without scarcity, people are willing to spend. In a continuously issuing system, the obsession with hoarding cannot be sustained; coins must flow—tipping, paying small fees, buying game tickets, donating for wells. As a result, its on-chain daily activity looks different from others: small amounts, high frequency, with transaction fees measured in cents.
Scarcity teaches people to collect; circulation teaches people to use. Twelve years later, $DOGE answers the same question with every few-cent transaction: the primary purpose of money is not to be hoarded but to be spent. MANA rose about 17.9%, with open interest nearly doubling in 24 hours, while the funding rate dropped to about -0.486%.
As of 19:06 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is around $0.1043, with a 24-hour high of $0.10639 and a low of $0.08737, a volatility of about 21.8%, and a trading volume of approximately $1.98 million. The current price is less than 2% below the high, with the main gains still intact.
OKEx hourly statistics show open contracts rising from about 608,500 24 hours ago to about 1,170,400, an increase of about 92.4%, with a current notional value of approximately $1.21 million. The perpetual price is about $0.10344, roughly 0.83% below spot; the most recent settlement funding rate is about -0.0421%, and the current cycle has expanded to about -0.4856%.
My judgment is that the price is close to the high, positions are rapidly expanding, but contracts are clearly at a discount and shorts continue to pay fees, indicating increasing position conflicts. The easiest misjudgment is to take a negative funding rate directly as a guarantee of continued rise; the rate may also come from hedging or liquidity mismatches, and new positions alone cannot prove direction.
Next, watch $0.10639 and $0.10. If the previous high is broken while positions remain high and the discount starts to narrow, squeeze risk will continue to accumulate; if it falls below $0.10 and positions do not decrease, high leverage may turn into concentrated liquidation pressure.
$MANA