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Help!!! Where's the promised profit? Why am I red on both sides again???
I thought today would be my turnaround, but those two short positions of mine are perfectly red, as if mocking me!
$SNDK I opened a short at 1779, and now it's stuck at 1779, not earning a cent, and I'm even paying fees!
I heard the company's boss secretly sold tens of millions of dollars worth of stock and ran away, so I thought this was a sure thing and quickly opened a short. But then?
The company turned around and said it would spend over ten billion dollars buying back its own stock, stubbornly propping up the price!
The boss runs away, the company defends the price, it's a battle of gods, and I'm just a retail investor caught in the crossfire!
I shorted ZEC at 1400, but it soared all the way to 1437, making me lose so much it hurts!
A few days ago, I heard a big player smashed the market, made tens of millions, and ran, so I hurriedly followed the short.
But today I heard that a big player quietly bought tens of thousands of ZEC with millions of dollars in cash over a month!
The big player is smashing and buying at the same time, and I'm like a fool getting slapped from both sides!
Sigh, my title as the "Leek War God" is well deserved. Buying at the peak, shorting at the bottom, whenever I make a move, the dog whales laugh.
$BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $WLD was at 0.538u at noon, with a 24-hour increase close to 10%. This excitement is indeed worth watching. But when the price rises quickly, I prefer to calculate the supply side: according to the official schedule, the daily unlocking speed has decreased by 43% since July, yet about 2.9 million tokens are still unlocked daily. Unlocking does not mean immediate selling, but it cannot be ignored either. My judgment is that the rebound is worth attention, but its sustainability depends on new demand catching up. If the trading heat can be maintained afterward, it will be more convincing than a single sharp surge. Don't use the price increase as a reason to suddenly create a long-term logic for yourself.
For $HYPE, let's first look at the integer resistance at 90u. At noon, it was about 88.94u, about 9% away from the high of 98.04u on September 23. The 90 level is just my observation line; if it crosses it but quickly falls back, it cannot be considered stable; only if it can sustain trading above it is it worth further discussion about the previous high. It's not far from the high, but the remaining distance won't be automatically covered just because it rose before. Waiting for confirmation here is more reliable than prematurely writing the breakthrough into the script.
$BICO is a bit easy to misread: it rose about 3.4% in 24 hours but still fell about 3.5% over the past week. Focusing only on the green number of the day can easily mislead one to think the weakness is over. I temporarily put it on the recovery list, with the evaluation standard being whether it can reduce the pullback in the next few days, not how high it can surge today. A low unit price itself does not mean cheap, and a single rebound does not prove demand improvement. Watch more, act less, save patience for continuous performance, and don't let one day's excitement make decisions for you.$DOGE trading is active but the price remains within the range; what is the market waiting for?
OKX spot 24-hour range is approximately 0.09289—0.09816, with a trading volume of about 51.32 million USDT, and the current price is still within the range. The short-term elasticity of meme coins comes from attention and liquidity; if trading volume expands without price following, it may just be a turnover between bulls and bears and cannot be directly considered a trend start.
If the 1-hour chart shows volume rising above 0.09816 and holds after a pullback, I will increase my confidence in a breakout; if it falls below 0.09289 with expanding volume, it indicates that chasing funds are exiting the market. After the mainstream coins rose, they entered a high-level consolidation with bulls and bears competing. The news is mixed, and no clear one-sided trend has emerged yet, so avoid chasing highs.
BTC｜Holding above the short-term moving average, the bullish structure remains, but short-term upward momentum is weakening. The MSCI index adjustment news poses potential capital disturbance, limiting rapid surges.
ETH｜Moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, the market follows BTC with stronger elasticity. Market expectations see a slight decline in ETH staking, slightly suppressing upward space, with no major negative factors.
SOL｜Moving averages provide support, the trend remains good. Completed $15 million ecological financing, fundamental benefits support the price.
DOGE｜Oscillating upward with greater volatility.
DogeOS testnet launched, large holders continue accumulating, MEME sentiment supports but sustainability is weak.
The major trend remains bullish, short-term fluctuations may repeatedly trigger stop losses. Prioritize waiting for a pullback to support before considering opportunities, reduce leverage, strictly stop losses, as news can cause sudden volatility anytime. Heavy positions for speculation are not recommended. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC $ETH $SOL ETH's on-chain signals in this wave are not weak. 130,000 ETH were transferred out from the 2015 ICO whale address at a cost of 0.3 each. Whether it's for repositioning or preparing to stake, at least it wasn't directly dumped onto exchanges. Top 50 addresses increased holdings by $4.5 million within 14 minutes, indicating funds are absorbing high-level turnover. OKX received 502 BTC, Binance hot wallet withdrew 8,200 BTC, showing short-term liquidity on exchanges is tight, which is not bad for bulls.
Just parked the car by the roadside, the order reminder call made my pocket vibrate numb, eyes still on the hourly chart. The candlestick is still above the moving average, but MACD momentum has weakened. The liquidation chart shows short stop losses accumulated between 2740 and 2770, and dense long liquidity between 2680 and 2650. This structure tends to first spike down to clear longs, then reverse to squeeze shorts.
Operationally, do not chase at the current price of 2713. Enter longs on a pullback to 2685-2700, defend at 2670, take profit at 2745, and watch 2765 after a breakout. If it directly breaks and holds above 2740 with volume, lightly chase longs with a stop loss below 2720.
$ETH
#特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI
@OKX星球 Single Coin Contract Fluctuation｜Last 15 Minutes
$MON showed a buying bias in the first two segments, with buying and selling nearly balanced in the last segment: overall active buying was 61.2%, dropping to 59.8% in the last segment, with a 3.04% price increase over fifteen minutes. The buyer's advantage did not continue until the end of the window, and the most recent segment showed no clear one-sided transaction dominance.PCE was lower than expected, but BTC surged and then pulled back; the real answer might lie in U.S. Treasury yields.
On September 30, U.S. August PCE was weaker than expected, and BTC once quickly climbed to $85,500, but then mostly gave back the gains, returning to around $83,700 in the Asian morning session. The market was originally trading on the premise of "cooling inflation → lower rate hike expectations → risk assets rising," but the problem is that U.S. Treasury yields did not actually come down.
Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.2%, and the 30-year yield is running near a high level of 5.6%, with long-term yields staying at multi-year highs.
This creates a very clear market signal: PCE gave BTC a positive boost, but the bond market did not confirm it.
My understanding is that the biggest short-term resistance for BTC is no longer just rate hike expectations, but the opportunity cost of capital caused by high yields.
As long as the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields continue to trade sideways at high levels, even if BTC surges due to positive data, it is prone to pull back after the rally.
Conversely, if employment data weakens later, the market further lowers rate hike expectations, and Treasury yields begin a trend of decline, then that is the combination truly worth watching.
The transmission path is also very clear:
Cooling inflation → lower rate hike expectations → declining Treasury yields → dollar under pressure → improved liquidity → BTC benefits first → then ETH, SOL, and high Beta assets rotate.
So now I am more focused on "whether yields are trending down" rather than simply whether a single economic data point is good or not.
In short-term trading $UNI
This ID's viewpoint
UNI on the 30-minute chart started its recovery path from the low of 8.444, establishing a consolidation zone. Currently, it is moving back and forth within the box, engaging in a "tug-of-war and idle fishing" pattern, which is a repair phase after a major drop. The bulls have just caught their breath and have not yet gathered enough strength to launch a major counterattack.
Entry: Wait for a secondary-level pullback to form a bullish divergence + bottom fractal, then buy low near the consolidation zone's ZD; enter a trade on a volume breakout above ZG, and if the price retests but does not break below ZG, consider a third buy.
Stop loss: Place defense below the consolidation zone's ZD; if ZD is broken, this round of consolidation repair structure fails.
Chan Theory Structure
The purple box represents the consolidation zone at this level, with ZG ≈ 9.10 and ZD ≈ 8.70. The price fell sharply from 9.806 down to 8.444 before braking. After rebounding, it entered the consolidation zone and oscillated back and forth. As long as the 8.444 low holds, there is still a chance to turn around; only by stabilizing above ZG can it challenge the previous high of 9.806. If 8.444 is lost, the downtrend drama will continue.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
During the previous decline, large-volume bearish candles appeared consecutively, with bears fully exerting pressure. At the 8.444 low, capital stepped in to absorb the sell-off. The rebound saw a brief volume surge at the high, but unfortunately, subsequent capital did not follow through, and volume quickly died down after the peak, causing price to fall back. Inside the consolidation zone, the price oscillates repeatedly with overall shrinking volume, as bulls and bears exchange chips here without a one-sided accumulation or distribution.
Key Observation Points
UNI is trapped grinding repeatedly inside the 30-minute box, with 9.806 as the immediate major resistance. Not another small wallet reshuffling — Multicoin just pushed about $8.34 million worth of HYPE into Coinbase Prime.
According to ChainCatcher (Onchain Lens) at 10/1 04:53: A wallet related to Multicoin Capital deposited approximately 92,400 HYPE tokens into Coinbase Prime, valued at about $8.34 million, suspected to be for sale based on monitoring criteria. This is a new deposit by a different entity compared to yesterday's Arrington→FalconX and other recent HYPE deposits.
Transfer to Prime ≠ all sold at market price; monitoring association ≠ confirmed entity; suspected sale ≠ confirmed transaction. At the time of writing, OKX HYPE is about 88.90. Not investment advice.Woke up from a nap and checked my account equity still at 859.32U, feeling relieved. I was afraid that when I opened my eyes, it would be like before liberation, but luckily the few positions I hold haven't caused major trouble.
The $CT long position in hand is really a headache, bought at 0.451 cost and now at 0.3937, a floating loss of 12.61U, the margin is almost gone. Held it for 18 hours, from 7 PM last night until now, it’s been going down nonstop, feeling like I can’t hold on much longer.
Then the $BTC long position, opened at 84300, now at 84198, bottom fishing but only halfway down the mountain.
Speaking of $ETH, this one is the hero of today. Cost at 2685, now 2711.3, floating profit of 49.02U, nearly doubled. Held for 15 hours, finally the late night wasn’t wasted.
Among the positions closed yesterday, the $ETH trade made 41.48U, the $BTC trade made 88.68U, quite a bit combined. Also those $ZEC trades, the one from the afternoon before yesterday made 152.8U in 3 hours, the most satisfying. Of course, there were also some cut losses, the $UNI trade lost 57.64U, that hurt a lot.
Currently watching a few coins: $ORDI at 4.700, up nearly 2 points today; $DASH at 60.660, basically flat; $STRK at 0.04374, also up over 2 points. Let’s see which one gives a chance to get in this afternoon.
Total account still at 859U, started with 500U principal over 2 days, all thanks to guts and quick moves. Will check the market again this afternoon. Good afternoon, family.#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 84,000, with bullish moving averages but shrinking volatility. With non-farm payrolls approaching, the market is cautious. ETH has 1.06 billion short positions liquidated at 2830 above, and 1.01 billion long positions liquidated at 2561 below, posing extremely high risk of both long and short liquidations. Avoid reversing to long positions out of anxiety; it is recommended to reduce leverage and control positions, wait for the non-farm payroll release and volume-confirmed candlestick to confirm direction, then trade with the trend on the right side. $BTC $ETH $ZEC On September 30, MetaMask announced it is handling an infrastructure security incident and simultaneously began withdrawing all its Ethereum validator nodes from the Lido protocol. The exit is expected to be completed by October 7, but full withdrawal will take about 45 days due to the current long queue for Ethereum validators.
MetaMask did not clarify what exactly happened.
The official statement only said "an infrastructure breach is under investigation" and "no immediate threat to MetaMask wallets has been identified"—a typical early-stage security incident statement: confirming an issue but withholding details.
There are several chain reactions worth noting:
This incident also affected Aave—because stETH is used as collateral on Aave, MetaMask’s exit from Lido validator nodes will impact related positions on Aave.
Lido has a temporary reserve of 6,750 stETH specifically to handle such node exits, which will not directly affect ordinary stETH holders. stETH holders do not need to take any action.
MetaMask is not the first to do this—in September 2025, node operator Kiln also performed a similar precautionary exit after its infrastructure was breached. This is the standard emergency procedure for the Lido protocol.
But one question remains unanswered: how exactly was MetaMask’s infrastructure breached, and whether private keys are at risk. Until this answer is revealed
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Most current quotes are in the range of $2,680–2,700, showing slight fluctuations compared to yesterday's close (about +0.1% to +0.7%, depending on the exchange). Yesterday, prices surged to around $2,740–2,750 before retreating, failing to effectively hold above $2,700. Today's Asian session volatility has further narrowed. Today's market structure Yesterday (September 30): opened around $2,674–2,693, peaked at about $2,739–2,749, bottomed near $2,652–2,658, and closed around $2,682–2,686. Similarly, it surged then pulled back. So far today: the range is roughly $2,668–2,699, with prices hovering sideways around $2,680–2,690. Both volume and volatility are weaker than during yesterday's peak period. Broader context: Since rebounding from mid-year lows, the price has mainly oscillated within the $2,650–2,800 box over the past two weeks. It is currently about 45% below the 2025 high (around $4,850–4,950) but still approximately 9% higher than one month ago. ETH and BTC are moving in similar rhythms: BTC is holding support at 83,000 and facing resistance at 85,000; ETH is holding support at $2,650–2,660 and facing resistance at $2,700–2,750. Key levels Immediate support: $2,660–2,680 is today's most important defense line Secondary support: $2,620 / $2,500 lower boundary of the box; if $2,620 breaks, more downside space opens Immediate resistanceThe stablecoin sector has become lively again over the past week.
Let's first look at a set of key data:
USDC's market cap increased by $1.1 billion in one week, while USDT's increase during the same period was $446.3 million — the former is 2.5 times the latter. From the issuer's perspective, Circle grew by $1 billion in one week, clearly surpassing Tether's $445.2 million.
$CRCL became the strongest performing issuer in the past week, outperforming Tether.
What is even more noteworthy is that traditional banks have started to appear on the leaderboard. Crédit Agricole (French Agricultural Credit Bank) entered the top ten issuers with EURXT, increasing by $39 million in one week, making it the only euro stablecoin among the fastest-growing assets in the top ten.
However, the overall pattern remains unchanged: USD stablecoins still account for about 98% of all growth, increasing by $2 billion in one week; euro stablecoins only increased by $30.9 million.
Ethena's USDe market cap grew by over $100 million but only added 800 new holders. The growth mainly comes from a few large holders rather than widespread retail adoption.
But it seems this is not yet the fastest bull phase for stablecoin growth; hopefully, this market will see more players.The inflows and outflows of BTC ETFs are quite meaningful as a reference; the surge in September came fast and left quickly.
On September 21, there was nearly $1 billion in inflows in a single day, the largest single-day inflow in almost a year.
After that, inflows decreased every trading day, and by the 30th, it was already in a net outflow state, while the $BTC price remained sideways.
In other words, this rally was pushed up by institutions/US investors, and now that the big players have finished buying, they have paused. Who will take over next? 🫣tao has reached the current target level above 300, you can start swing trading now. To make money, you either rely on discipline (only trade one, lose money in the early stage, but can recover later) or rely on gradually averaging down by only buying and not selling. The losses now can all be recovered in the future.
1. When choosing coins, always pick those with high volatility that won't go to zero, otherwise you're just throwing your money away.
2. Never touch leverage; if you can't hold without leverage, don't even think about using it.
3. Never go all-in; always keep some reserve. If you're afraid of missing out, use the spot Martingale strategy in your plan to gradually lower your cost basis. When you feel you've lost a lot and the coin shows signs of a rebound, go all in (keep enough for living expenses), ensuring you have a month's buffer to wait for the rebound (guaranteeing no loss).
4. Everyone says you must protect your principal to survive (Buffett started with small capital and high-risk investments, but his era was different. The crypto space itself is already extremely high risk compared to his time, so don't use leverage or dream of getting rich overnight. If you survive 4 years in crypto, you're just getting started).
5. Don't look at all those messy indicators; just watch which price level the hourly chart stays at longer. When it shows signs of holding and not falling further, that's when to enter. Always use Martingale then, leave room for error. Even making one dollar is better than losing 100 (98% of people in crypto die this way).
6. When selling, if you feel the price is rising very fast, keep watching for any sudden sharp drop to take profit immediately. Don't chase the tail; it takes a week to rise but only 0.001 seconds to fall.
7. Crypto is only part of life; don't forget your family. Even gamblers need to be rational.
For buying, refer to points 1, 2, 3, 4.
For taking profit, refer to point 5.
Wishing everyone survival.Bitcoin just showed why one green move isn't enough.
BTC pushed above $85K after softer inflation data, but the move didn't hold.
That's the part I'm watching.
A breakout matters more when buyers can defend it after the initial reaction.
For now, I'm watching price not headlines.Market and Strategy on the Eve of Nonfarm Payrolls
Currently, BTC is oscillating near the high of 84,000, with daily moving averages in a bullish alignment that remains unbroken, but the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating extremely compressed volatility. ETH is quoted at 2,707, SOL at 119, and the overall structure remains relatively strong.
On the macro level, ADP exceeded expectations but ISM data was weak; Federal Reserve official Kashkari maintains a hawkish stance, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high, continuously suppressing risk appetite. Before the nonfarm payroll release, bulls and bears are extremely cautious in their battle.
On the funding side, the Fear & Greed Index has cooled down to 68. Coinglass data reveals a highly symmetrical liquidity pool with 1.06 billion short liquidations clustered around ETH at 2,830 above, and 1.01 billion long liquidations clustered around 2,561 below. Spot ETF inflows continue to provide support, while the futures market experiences a two-way squeeze, making it very likely to trigger two-way spikes when the data is released.
Regarding the current situation of holding high-leverage short positions, reversing to long is an emotional operation driven by loss anxiety. Frequently switching directions in the middle of the range will face the risk of both long and short liquidations. Professional response strategy: reduce leverage and control position size before the data release; after the nonfarm payrolls are announced, observe the first high-volume candlestick to confirm direction, then trade with the trend on the right side. Preserve capital and avoid subjective assumptions. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $2Z remains weak on the last day before unlocking on October 2, representing nearly half of the circulating new chips, making it the only main theme in the market this week. Almost all of the positions liquidated in the past 24 hours were long positions, with short positions barely affected, indicating that the decline is driven by active selling pressure rather than a short squeeze rebound. Both volume and open interest are thin, lacking sufficient buying power to absorb this expected supply. The chart's "higher highs" pattern is a completed structure and a lagging signal. The supply event outweighs technicals, and the RSI at 34 reflects the current real weakness. Backtesting large unlocks shows an average underperformance of about 6% against the market in the first 7 days; $2Z is currently at the tail end of this window. Conclusion: Maintain a weaker stance than the market before the unlock. If it retakes the intraday high of 0.0649 before unlocking, it indicates that selling pressure has been digested early, shifting to a neutral to slightly bullish outlook. After unlocking, this supply will no longer determine direction, and focus returns to volume and price themselves.The first truth: 4 billion tokens were minted out of thin air, trust dropped to zero
On August 12, 2026, an attacker exploited a vacant block vulnerability in the Harmony protocol and unauthorizedly minted about 4 billion ONE tokens, accounting for 26% of the total supply at that time. Approximately 2.8 billion of these were quickly transferred to exchanges to dump.
This is not the first time Harmony has been hacked. In June 2022, the Horizon cross-chain bridge was breached by North Korea's Lazarus group, resulting in a loss of about $100 million. The same project suffered two major security incidents within four years, both involving illegal manipulation of token supply.
How can you trust a public chain that can't even "prevent tokens from being minted out of thin air" to safeguard your assets?
Even more outrageous, to fix the vulnerability, Harmony rolled back the blockchain and removed over 109,000 legitimate transaction records. What does this mean? It means that on this chain, the blockchain's core promise of "transactions are immutable" has been broken by the project team itself. $ONE $BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Last night's $HYPE was insanely strong, especially between 23:00-24:00, with two big bullish candlesticks breaking through $90 directly, it was crazy🙈
As the child of the version, my approach with HYPE has always been to buy the dip, which is much simpler than shorting; the market doesn't reward you for more difficult operations, it only rewards the correct choices.
During studying, solving difficult problems gets you rewards; trading is not like that. When facing tough market conditions, you should rest more and avoid them, not confront them head-on.
Only do simple trades🫡
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
@OKX星球 OKB is moving sideways along the upper edge of the box, direction not yet chosen
OKB is currently at 120.85, stuck near the upper middle range of the 60-period band between 116 and 126
4-hour close at 121, high 121 low 120, volume 9388
Daily close at 121, high 122 low 119, volume 49002
The key is the volume
Yesterday volume surged to 122, today 4-hour volume dropped to 9388
Price hasn't fallen but volume shrinks first, selling pressure is light, and buying momentum is not active
Funding rate +0.0050%, longs are paying very lightly
In terms of position, 119 to 120 is support, 121 to 122 is resistance
Once PCE data is released, it will likely pick a side directly
So my judgment is
Don't chase before the data, only a break above 122 with 4-hour volume rising above 12,000 again counts as a valid breakout
If it falls below 119, it will return to the middle of the box, 116 is the real level to watch
$OKB $BTC #OKB #VolumePrice$BTC just surged hard, why is it that one position is split into several positions in the historical positions? Clearly it was a partial close, leaving margin funds in isolated margin with an estimated liquidation around 85900, but I see it split into several, and the first few show fully closed?Circle issued 1.1 billion more in a week, leaving Tether behind
Here is the latest data on stablecoin issuers:
In the past 7 days, USDC's market cap increased by 1.1 billion USD, 2.5 times that of Tether's USDT (446.3 million USD). From the issuer's perspective, Circle grew by 1 billion USD, more than double Tether's 445.2 million USD.
$CRCL outperformed Tether, being the strongest issuer in the past week.
Traditional banks are starting to appear:
Crédit Agricole entered the top ten issuers, increasing by 39 million USD through EURXT, the only euro stablecoin among the top ten fastest-growing assets.
Overall, USD stablecoins still account for about 98% of total growth, increasing by 2 billion USD. Euro stablecoins only increased by 30.9 million USD.
Regarding new stablecoin holders:
$BNB chain added 985,000 new holders, more than half of the top ten combined, nearly five times the second place.
By assets:
USDT added 845,900 holders, accounting for 62% of the top ten holder growth. USDC ranked second with 390,800.
A noteworthy detail:
Ethena's $ENA USDe market cap grew by over 100 million USD but only added 800 holders.
Growth mainly came from a few large holders, not widespread retail adoption.Happy National Day! 🇨🇳 Wishing everyone profits and a good night’s sleep. 😴💰
$SOON played out nicely—long from 0.0437 and closed around 0.0537 while I was asleep. 😂
$CAP? I’m staying away from shorts. Slow climbs can turn into sudden pumps.
Most importantly, watch $BTC before taking any altcoin trade. When BTC’s broader trend is strong, shorting alts can be a dangerous game.
Trade with the trend, not against it. 📊
#USTreasuryYieldsClimb
#IranUSDealStandoff
#AMDWorldLabsAcquisition Brothers, I'm back again. Last night I was still pacing the edge of the rooftop, and today I'm continuing to review this damn market for everyone. First, let's look at a data point that made my blood pressure spike: Coinglass shows that if ETH breaks through $2830, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.062 billion. Conversely, if it falls below $2561, the long liquidation intensity will also be $1.01 billion. In plain language: both bulls and bears have planted $1 billion worth of explosives, and whoever can't hold on first will blow up first. And I am the fool in the short camp holding the torch. --- Now look at my current miserable state. SOL short position is down 15.86%, ETH short position down 124.27%, BTC short position down 83.03%. 100x leverage, full position mode. ETH entry average price is 2675, the mark price has already moved to 2707. My estimated forced liquidation price is 2833—coincidentally, right above that $1 billion short liquidation zone. In other words, if the non-farm payrolls push ETH up, not only will I be liquidated, but I'll also take that $1 billion with me into oblivion. This scene is as tragic as a low-budget disaster movie. --- But the market is still "healthy" for now, and that's the most tormenting part. On the daily chart, BTC is firmly above 84,000, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 all in bullish alignment, and the Bollinger Bands middle band at 81,627 providing strong support. ETH has risen from 1,852 to 2,806, more than 50%, now hovering near the high at 2,707 In the past two days, the bottom of Bitcoin will speak
September 30th at 8:30 PM, Core PCE. October 2nd at 8:30 PM, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate.
Both data points will be released within 48 hours.
My judgment is straightforward: Bitcoin's phase bottom will emerge within these two days.
Let's start with the PCE side. August's Core PCE annual rate held steady at 2.9%, overall PCE annual rate at 2.7%, both meeting expectations. This data brought no surprises, but precisely the "no surprise" itself is good news—it confirms that the Fed's path of cutting rates by 25 basis points last week remains unbroken, and the consensus of two more cuts before year-end remains rock solid. The market needs this kind of certainty.
Now looking at the Nonfarm Payrolls. What is the current state of the US job market? To sum it up in one word: slow, painful cuts. Employment growth remains weak; July and August nonfarm job additions were significantly below expectations, and May and June data were sharply revised down. The labor market is not collapsing, but it is steadily leaking.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? The two indicators the Fed cares most about—inflation and employment—now have one stabilized and the other declining. Powell himself said, "Short-term inflation risks are tilted to the upside, employment risks are tilted to the downside." In plain language: the direction of rate cuts won't change, only the pace will.
So how will the market react when the data is released?
I don't rule out an initial drop. If the Nonfarm Payrolls data is worse than expected, short-term risk aversion will push Bitcoin down a bit first—this is the so-called "last dip before all the bad news is out." But you need to see clearly that the pit created by this drop is precisely the bottom. Because the worse the employment, the stronger the rate cut expectations, the looser the liquidity expectations—which is fundamentally bullish for Bitcoin.
The technicals are also cooperating. The $112,000 level has been repeatedly tested; @CryptoMichNL clearly said this is a month-end shakeout, a retest is underway, and he is optimistic about an upward move in the coming days. Earlier, Bitfinex Alpha's report also pointed out that the market is in the late stage of correction, and the $93,000 to $95,000 range is expected to become a cyclical bottom. The current price is already some distance from that area, indicating buyers are entering early.
The logic of the bottom is not "stop falling at a certain price," but "all the bad news is out, and no one wants to sell anymore."
Then comes October 2nd to 8th—the seven days of the National Day holiday.
Last year during National Day, Bitcoin rose cumulatively by 3.99%, ranking third among major global assets. This year, I am more optimistic than last year. The reason is simple: the US government shutdown risk looms overhead, funds are seeking safe havens, and the "devaluation trade" logic for Bitcoin and gold is being seriously considered by institutions. Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered Bank directly said this shutdown is important, and Bitcoin will continue to rise.
I reserve judgment on the "seven days of joy" saying. But the strength of this rally depends on how aggressively the market prices in the rate cut path after the data release. If Nonfarm Payrolls push the probability of a November rate cut above 90%, then the seven days won’t just be "a little fun," it will be a full-on breakout.
But one thing I must make clear.
After this rally, the bull market through the end of October will basically be over.
From June to October, a full three-month, one-hundred-day bull cycle will basically conclude by then. Why? Because the market has already priced in rate cuts to the fullest. When everyone knows rate cuts are coming, the cuts themselves are no longer bullish. At that point, a new narrative is needed, not a repetition of old logic.
So my stance is very clear:
In these two days, watch the market closely. When the bottom appears, act accordingly. Hold through the seven days of National Day. But by the end of October, take profits and don’t get attached.
The market never waits for you to be ready before it starts. It only waits until you realize it, by which time it’s already halfway gone.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 📊 THREE CHARTS. ONE CHAIN REACTION.
$BTC = Market direction
$ETH = Market health
$SOL = Speculative risk
If $BTC chops sideways:
• ETH/BTC strength = Altseason prep
• SOL/ETH strength = Aggressive risk-on
Don't trade the asset—trade the rotation.
💬 Which pair are you watching closest right now: BTC/USD, ETH/BTC, or SOL/ETH?
#BTC #ETH #SOL #TechnicalAnalysis #Altcoins$ETH, you really want to test my patience? 😂
180U margin, 100x leverage, short from 2681.97.
Liquidation sits around 2729.82.
$BTC is back near 83.5K and $SOL looks weak, yet ETH refuses to drop.
Now I’m watching one thing:
2600 = payday 🎯
2729 = game over 💀
No middle ground—let’s see what ETH decides.
$ETH $BTC $SOL
#OKXNOW：SeeWhat'sNext
#TetherFreezes550MUSDT
#OKXNOW：SeeWhat'sNext Bottom line: BTC is sitting in an interesting $80K–$86K battle zone: ETF/institutional flows are supportive, while high yields and profit-taking remain headwinds. This is market information, not a prediction or trading recommendation.😂 Short version posted on Orbit
BTC this morning: $83.7K – politics back on the table 😂
US–Iran tension → oil rises → inflation worries → Fed hard to ease → BTC under pressure.
But US PCE softer than expected → chance of Fed rate hike in October decreases → BTC supported.
One side oil pulls down, the other side Fed pulls up.
BTC in the middle: “Have you two decided yet so I can choose a direction!” 🤣
$83K–$85K worth watching.
Today, don’t just watch crypto charts, also watch oil + US–Iran + Fed. $BTC SOL Has the Fundamentals. Price Still Wants Proof!
SOL’s regulatory stack strengthened materially in 2026, with U.S. regulators classifying SOL as a digital commodity and clarifying staking treatment. Solana also reported $3.7B+ in non-stablecoin RWAs.
Yet price tells a different story. SOL is around $118, nearly 60% below its 2025 ATH of $293.31.
This is a watch, not a long. $100 is the level that matters. $125–130 is the first sign sentiment’s turning.
#USTreasuryYieldsClimb
$SOL $TIA
Whether TIA can continue to rise in the short term mainly depends on the market's ability to absorb the upcoming massive token unlock, while the technical aspect is also at a critical decision point.
📈 Biggest short-term pressure: Huge unlock on October 30
This is currently the clearest bearish factor hanging over TIA:
· Massive unlock scale: On October 30, 175 million TIA will be unlocked, accounting for 17.68% of the current circulating supply, valued at over $1.08 billion at the valuation at that time.
· Potential selling pressure: These tokens are allocated to early investors and core contributors. Given the current price is far below the historical high, whether there will be selling after the unlock is a huge uncertainty.
📊 Current market status: Rebound but fragile
Recently, TIA has indeed rebounded from the low point, but the foundation is not solid:
· Rebound strength: The price has risen significantly from the September low (around 0.53**).
· Fragile funding source: This rebound is mainly driven by retail investors (account long-short ratio surged from 0.91 to 2.16), while contract holdings representing whales/institutions have not increased significantly, indicating the rise lacks sustained support from "big money".
· Technical warning: Although the short-term resistance at $0.51 was broken, the RSI indicator was once at 84 (severely overbought), indicating a need for a pullback; and the long-term moving averages still show a bearish alignment.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Cross-chain for DOGE is not migration, but expansion.
It has not left its native PoW chain, nor has it touched the wrapped market on Ethereum. Instead, it enters Solana in its native form through Wormhole's NTT framework—same supply, with an additional trading venue.
Sunrise assigns a unified minting address for each connected asset to avoid liquidity fragmentation caused by multiple bridges coexisting. Once DOGE lands, it connects to protocols like Jupiter, Raydium, Kamino, etc. Within three hours of launch, trading volume exceeded ten million dollars, and seven-day trading volume surpassed 46 million dollars, with over fifteen thousand on-chain holders.
The significance of the DOGE/USDC pool on Jupiter lies in independence. Its market-making funds come from liquidity providers in the Solana ecosystem, matching local order flow, independent from the payment scenarios on the original chain and the DeFi market on Ethereum. If any chain experiences congestion, downtime, or cooling sentiment, DOGE can still be traded normally elsewhere. One more deep pool means one less systemic risk from a single chain.
Risks also exist. A unified gateway means centralized cross-chain entry; Sunrise itself becomes a new single point of failure. If there is a protocol-level issue, $DOGE liquidity on Solana will be simultaneously pressured. Whether the pool depth can be sustained depends on daily trading after the initial hype, not just the first-day numbers.
For established Meme coins, the end goal of cross-chain is not relocation but having their own position in more markets.I divide existing altcoins into four categories:
1. Yesterday's news
Appeared earlier, topics are outdated, and expansion potential is limited, mostly mining coins. Expected not to surpass the 2021 peak by 2028. This category includes: ATOM, FIL, BSV, ICP, DOT, etc.
2. Steady and reliable
Appeared before 2021, with a certain market share, projects are still actively operating and developing. Prices of these coins are expected to move in sync with the overall market, with total market cap increasing 1-2 times. This category includes: LINK, CRV, DOGE, XRP, XLM, HBAR, etc.
3. Advanced productivity
Appeared in 2021 and later, representing (widely recognized) advanced productivity and future development directions. These coins have a higher ceiling than steady and reliable coins and are very likely to grow stronger in a bull market. This category includes: SOL, SEI, SUI, LIT, PUMP, ONDO, PENDLE, ENA, HYPE, NEAR, UNI, AAVE, etc.
4. Dark horse princes
Appeared between 2024-2026, not part of mainstream narratives but gradually entering mainstream view, with significant potential for future development, though there is also a chance of failure depending on whether they become mainstream narratives and continue to be hotspots.
This category includes: PONS, AERO, VVV, TAO, ZAMA, ETHFI, Niulai, RE, BIO, etc.
As a prudent leveraged long, my main positions are in categories 2 and 3, while trying to also cover category 4 RWA growth outpaces AI, a statement that's often misunderstood
Tomasz Tunguz says the fastest growing market globally is not AI.
It's real-world assets on-chain.
The exact rule is:
Stocks, oil, copper can all be moved onto the blockchain for trading.
The moment this triggers:
Exchanges close, but price discovery continues on-chain.
How this number is calculated:
SpaceX perpetual open interest is $215 million.
Pre-IPO cumulative trading volume is about $2.2 billion.
Stock perpetuals traded $67.8 billion in June, 16 times the spot volume.
Market makers focus not on price moves but on who is quoting during exchange off-hours.
During that time, without counterparties, the spread is determined by themselves.
Once institutions fill this space, even that small spread will disappear.
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $HYPE Someone just threw a line in the group chat: Is there still hope for Sushi at its current price?
I stared at this sentence for three seconds because the person saying this was already saying something similar a year ago.
$SUSHI is now around 0.27. Some people have an average cost of over 0.50, and when it dropped the deepest, they lost 90%. They kept averaging down by repeatedly adding positions and trading, but even today, each position is still underwater.
What's wrong with this? The problem is that every operation you make is to "break even," not to "make a profit." You have already been held hostage by your cost basis.
Who can you blame? During the last DeFi narrative downturn, who wasn’t trapped by Sushi?
I'm not advising to cut losses or hold. I just want to say: this 7-day rebound is on increased volume, but not being able to break even doesn’t mean you’re wrong; it means your position management is wrong. $SUSHI PCE unexpectedly lower than expected, BTC surged to 85,000 then got pushed back, where is the problem?
August core PCE year-on-year at 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%, hitting a six-month low, rate hike probability dropped from 70% to 35%, BTC responded by surging to 85,000. However, within less than two hours, it gave all back, closing near 84,000, leaving a long upper shadow. This cooldown is not entirely due to economic cooling: the statistical method changed portfolio management fees to be measured by hourly income, causing the reading to be systematically about 0.2 percentage points lower. More worrisome is that inflation has not decreased but has plateaued at 3.0% for two months; excluding housing and energy, the super core services month-on-month actually accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%. The real pricing is in the bond market, with the 10-year US Treasury yield once reaching 5.304%, the highest since 2002, making the opportunity cost of risk-free assets too high. Don't take "lower than expected" as a signal to charge; that upper shadow is the market's answer. $BTCBTC surged to 85630 yesterday on news stimulus but faced resistance and fell back to 83325, with upper pressure at 84500;
ETH surged to 2738, tested support twice at 2666 and rebounded, showing good resilience.
Technically, BTC has entered a stagnation decline range, with core support at 82500.
During the day, look for a rebound; in the evening, focus on US stocks + Waller's speech, waiting for direction choice.
📌Reference opportunities
BTC: try long at 84000, add at 82800
ETH: try long at 2650, add at 2600 $BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The big brother really lives up to his name. 👊🏻🔥
This wasn’t about taking every trade. It was about knowing when to strike, when to take the money, and when to admit you’re wrong.
$BTC — the big one.
30x leverage, 100 BTC position.
Entry: 86,576.7 → Exit: 84,558
Almost 2,000 points captured in less than 21 hours.
💰 Profit: +199,739.96 U
📈 Return: +69.21%
#DailyOrbit The "holding pattern" before the big Nonfarm Payrolls: Crypto market sideways and volatile, what are the veteran traders waiting for?
Brothers, the market these days can be summed up in one word in plain language: grinding.
BTC is around 84,000, ETH at 2,700, SOL near 119, neither going up nor down, daily moving averages almost converging, volatility dropped to freezing point. This movement is like a bulldozer picking up coins, seemingly with opportunities but actually sweeping both up and down. Technically, resistance is solid at BTC 85,000 and ETH 2,750 on the upside, while key support is at BTC 82,000 and ETH 2,680 on the downside. Stuck in the middle, it’s a pure "meat grinder."
Looking at the news, recent macro data is basically "schizophrenic." The small Nonfarm Payrolls (ADP) disappointed, the market was about to hype a rate cut, but then Fed's Kashkari immediately turned hawkish: "Inflation is still too high, there may be one more rate hike this year!" The US 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5%, big money is seeking safety, who dares to blindly rush in at this critical moment?
Market sentiment is more realistic. The Fear & Greed Index cooled from 78 to 68, billions liquidated on both longs and shorts across the network, funding rates approaching zero. What does this mean? It means both bulls and bears are worn out by this repeated volatility, no one dares to hold heavy positions over the weekend. But notably, options open interest has surged, big money is quietly buying "lottery tickets," betting on big swings after the big Nonfarm Payrolls.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 BTC and ETH are both stuck in place, and this scene is even more boring than a big drop. Does sideways movement really mean nothing is happening? Staring at these two giants for a long time gives the illusion that the entire market has hit the pause button. But after scanning the strength and weakness across sectors, I found that’s not the case at all. The mainstream is stagnant, but underneath, seats are quietly being swapped. First, the facts. Recently, BTC and ETH neither crashed down nor surged up; their volatility has been compressed and flattened. The original author felt tired, said they wanted to sleep, find a part-time job, and even thought that watching the market long-term was not very meaningful. I completely understand this fatigue because most of the time the market moves sideways, with only a few phases showing a decent direction. But sideways doesn’t mean funds have disappeared; it just means they’ve changed their temperament. The current state is more like risk appetite hasn’t expanded but is instead contracting locally. Money is unwilling to spread widely and is only picking and choosing in a few sectors; the strong continue to be held together, while the weak slowly lose attention. This is the hardest time for altcoins because without incremental funds taking over, no matter how good the narrative, they easily become a one-day wonder. The bullish logic is not absent either. After a long sideways period, once BTC or ETH chooses a direction, the accumulated volatility will be released all at once, sector strength will instantly diverge, and those who have already positioned in strong sectors will benefit from that move. The bearish risk is also clear: if the mainstream remains inactive for too long, funds will grow impatient, the profit effect in altcoins will continue to fade, and sentiment will slide from boredom to indifference. At that time, the catch-up drop often comes faster than expected. My own feeling is that now it’s not about who watches the longest, but who watches the most accurately. Shift your focus from everyI still hold the same view: I am not optimistic about the $ONE token.
Some say they are very optimistic about it in the long term, but personally, I don't think it has a long term.
Don't be fooled by the fact that the price hasn't directly crashed now; in reality, it's just the last gasp.
The current price is 0.002017, and today's display still shows a decline.
A while ago, this token was said to be delisted, then it surged 70%.
This increase lasted for several days, then after a delay was announced,
it directly plummeted. Now, although it hasn't hit the lowest point,
it is just testing whether there are still buyers in the market. As long as there are still speculators,
it wouldn't have crashed directly. If you don't gamble on a rebound, better to take profits and secure your gains.
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Thinking back to when I first entered the industry, I had no idea when BTC reached key levels; I just chased highs and cut losses on dips. Once, I chased a high at 84000, but it immediately dropped back. I held on for three days but couldn't take it and cut losses, losing quite a bit on that trade. Later, after losing 200,000 U gradually, I finally understood the importance of key levels. Now BTC is at 83847.6 again, with resistance at 84000 and support at 83000. I immediately know what to do: try shorting near 84000, try going long near 83000. Open a position with 5000 U, never hold a losing position without a stop loss. Losses suffered shouldn't be in vain; learning from them is how you make money. $BTC #Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议 Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$CT short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.4132%, price -0.55%, open interest -1.6%. Decline accompanied by position reduction, new positions have not yet matched; holding short through settlement at the current rate, funding fees will lower the breakeven price.
$NIGHT short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0286%, price +1.05%, open interest -2%. Price increase accompanied by overall position contraction, holding short through settlement faces both adverse price movement and funding fee expenditure.
$MON short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0253%, price -1.3%, open interest -0.54%. Decline accompanied by position reduction, new positions have not yet matched; holding short through settlement at the current rate, funding fees will lower the breakeven price. Iran has already received the official response from the United States to the latest proposal, and contact has not been interrupted. This at least indicates that both sides are still willing to let the mediators continue conveying messages, and the situation is not completely closed.
However, in reports about the negotiations, there is a detail more worth noting than the "resumption of talks": the disagreement involves the order of actions. The U.S. hopes to see Iran take concrete measures first, and Iran is also unwilling to give up its own leverage first. Both sides worry that if they act first, the other side will not fulfill their commitments.
From an outsider's perspective, it might seem easy to just have each side make a concession first. But lifting the blockade, opening the waterways, and nuclear arrangements all involve real interests. Who acts first, how much they act, and how verification is conducted will directly affect whether the agreement can hold.
For oil prices, this means the market needs more than just positive statements. A set of phased implementation arrangements that allow both sides to confirm the other's actions is far more useful than a statement like "the talks were fruitful." Otherwise, the risk premium reduced today could be added back by the next tough statement.
I still hope this contact can move forward. The cost of continuing the stalemate after the war has dragged on this long is already very high. But when judging progress, I will pay more attention to concrete implementation steps. Even a small step beginning to be fulfilled is more reassuring than another polished post-meeting statement.
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Let me analyze the current market and news of $ETH for everyone.
ETH fundamentals are quite strong: institutions want safety, trust, and liquidity, all of which Ethereum excels in.
DATs already hold 7% of the supply, possibly reaching 15% this cycle, BitMine has accumulated over 6 million coins in fifteen months.
Digital asset products attracted 3.55 billion this week, with ETH-related inflows of 702 million; Hayes predicts $10,000 by year-end, Q3 rose over 70%, ETH/BTC finally broke years of downtrend.
But watch out for risks, on September 29, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of 2.81 million, ending continuous inflows, which had once reached 850.8 million;
Grayscale Mini lost 25.5 million in a single day. Governance rifts, Paradigm causing Tempo fork disrupting the roadmap, plus post-quantum/ZK adding uncertainties.
Technically, 2800 is resistance, some suggest canceling staking, if support fails, it may test 2500.
Mid-term, I am optimistic about ETH, short-term control your position and don't hold on stubbornly.
$BTC
$SOL
#US 30-year Treasury yield breaks 5.6%, hitting a new high since 2002 $ETH has been consolidating sideways for a week, with various indicators returning to neutral levels, the direction is uncertain, and trading difficulty has increased.
My personal judgment is that there will be another main upward wave, but this wave will be weaker than the previous two, and it will not continue to consolidate at a high level like the previous two times.
After all, there is little positive news support, relying only on capital support, which will eventually exhaust, especially since there are too many profit-taking positions now.
The upcoming rise will make the bulls' situation more complicated.
They will face multiple pressures such as short sellers' suppression, bulls taking profits and fleeing, and bulls turning bearish.
My judgment is clear: as long as it does not experience a deep pullback to wash out profit-taking positions, any rally is an opportunity to sell!
I will not short! But I also will not enter at this time; around 2300 is the price I am willing to sell at.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!"$FIL Supply reduction sounds bullish, but the market isn’t buying it yet.
Less supply doesn’t guarantee more demand. While other alts are moving, FIL remains stuck near the lows.
When good news fails to lift price, it may be time to rethink the position and watch for stronger opportunities.#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #FirstNEARSpotETFInUS #TokenizedStocksOnAave So frustrating! BTC is now at 83847.6, neither going up nor down, which is really annoying. If I want to go long, 84000 is holding it down; if I want to go short, the trend is still bullish. This is exactly when I used to get emotional and place random orders, ending up losing 200,000 U. Now I tell myself: hold on! Don’t place orders unless it’s a key level. Resistance at 84000, support at 83000, wait for the levels before making a move. Small position of 5000 U, set stop loss properly, don’t hold losing positions. Trading is against human nature; the more you want to trade, the more you have to hold back. Opportunities come from waiting, not chasing! $BTC #特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI