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Also with US Treasury yields breaking 5%, in 2023 BTC directly rose from 25,000 to 35,000.
80% of a bull market is painful, and here it is—when the 10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%, bearish bloggers all pop up 🐦 But I have always said: the same bad news can have opposite results depending on the cycle stage.
Looking back at October 2023: BTC was stuck between 25,000-30,000, with inverted yield curves everywhere, macro crises, and liquidity tightening. The 10-year US Treasury yield pierced 5% twice—on the 19th, it touched the 5% mark for the first time since 2007, and on the 23rd it broke again, causing global media frenzy.
According to textbook logic, money should have exited crypto to buy bonds. Instead, BTC boldly surged to 35,000 🚀 leaving many people on the sidelines.
Why? My water division theory: water level = total water level × allocation share, where share = chip structure × narrative fuel × competitor score.
Applied to October 2023: a 25,000 bottom, clean chips, and full ETF narrative tension—there was still 2x room to rise back to the previous high of 69,000. With such odds, a 5% risk-free yield simply can't lure people away.
So don’t get weak-kneed just because of 5%; position matters more than the news.
Is this 5% break a wolf cry or a golden pit? Take your side in the comments 👇
#BTC #USTreasury #MarketAnalysis
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Everyone expected a crash… but BTC did something different. 👀
BTC briefly touched $75,055 before snapping back toward $75.8K.
That move feels less like a straight breakdown and more like a liquidity shakeout.
$ETH is stuck around $2.4K.
$DOGE is fighting hard around $0.08.
For me, the plan is simple:
No revenge trades.
No oversized positions.
No emotional bottom fishing.
Let BTC prove whether $75K is support or just temporary protection.
What did you do during the shakeout—hold, sell, or buy?At first, it was my roommate in the shared apartment who stayed up late mumbling $BTC.
I thought he was losing it and advised him to get some rest early.
Later, I secretly downloaded some software myself, but after a few days, I still didn’t understand it.
I got itchy hands and bought a little, then just hoped for it to rise.
During the day at work, I sneaked peeks; at night lying in bed, I sneaked peeks too.
Once, I was checking the market while squatting in the bathroom, and only came out when my legs went numb.
When it went up, I felt like I knew something; when it dropped, I told myself it was just saving money.
Actually, I was very insecure inside, just didn’t want to admit it.
Later, I tried $ETH, and the transfer fees stunned me for a while.
It’s not losing on the ups and downs, but every transaction cuts a piece off.
Then I heard $SOL was fast, so I put in a small amount too.
It’s really fast, and my heartbeat was really fast too.
If I didn’t check for a few minutes, the numbers would look completely different.
During that time, when friends called me to eat, I said I was busy.
When family asked what I was busy with, I said it was work stuff.
Someone shouted trading signals in the group, and at first, I got excited and followed.
Later I realized the louder the shout, the easier it was to trap people.
Just glance at those showing off profits; who knows how much they lost behind the scenes.
Now I only play with spare money; losing it won’t affect my life.
No borrowing money, no heavy positions, no staying up late watching the market.
Take profits when you have them; don’t always think about hitting the top.
Don’t rush to recover losses; the more anxious, the messier it gets.
There’s a market every day, but if the principal is gone, there’s really nothing left to play.
Being able to sleep soundly is better than any get-rich-quick story.
After all this, my biggest takeaway is not to get carried away. #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 $CORE large-scale release has not triggered panic selling for a long time—is it market support or another scheme?
Many KOLs on foreign platforms have been closely watching CORE's large unlocks. Logically, with such a huge release volume, the price should have smashed through all psychological levels by now, but the market keeps grinding at the bottom without any destructive selling pressure.
Optimistic view: The tokens are not in the hands of retail investors. Large holders understand the project's long-term narrative and are unwilling to sell at low prices. They prefer to endure unrealized losses and wait for value reassessment after ecosystem development, banking cooperation, and overseas business implementation.
Cautious view: Not crashing doesn't mean they don't want to crash; they just can't do it all at once. Selling in batches, gradual declines, and oscillations are more covert than a sudden crash. The absence of panic selling doesn't mean the tokens are firmly held; sometimes it's just the rhythm of unloading. Many coins slowly exhaust everyone's patience during a prolonged bottoming phase where "everyone thinks someone is supporting the market."The Senate just killed CLARITY, but the House is quite active—the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act Committee passed it 28 to 21. Federally seized BTC must be locked for at least 20 years, with quarterly audits. Who wrote this play where interest rate hikes crash the market while the state hoards coins?Is $CORE Satoshi Plus truly an innovation, or is it just carrying the burden of the old PoW?
Many BTC miner communities have been deeply discussing CORE's unique dual consensus recently.
Supporters believe: PoW provides Bitcoin-level security, DPoS solves speed issues, balancing decentralization and performance, making it a unique technical path. 100MB blocks, low fees, and the future ability to handle massive BTCFi transactions—this is a design that Ethereum and other BTC sidechains cannot achieve.
Skeptics point out: Large blocks have long been highly controversial. Bigger blocks mean higher full node thresholds, gradually turning operation into something only a few large holders and service providers can manage. The so-called "decentralization" might slowly end up being controlled only by miners. Others raise the concern that much of the current hash power is reward-driven; once mining subsidies decline, whether the real hash power can be maintained is the biggest hidden risk.The intention to execute this track has finally led someone to be willing to pay for infrastructure. IRF acquired Nomina, but the real target is SolverNet.
Its mechanism is not complicated: agents only declare the desired outcome, and solvers compete at the bottom layer to complete routing, cross-chain, and Gas. What users see is the intention, with friction pushed inside the protocol. 7.5 million transactions indicate that this process runs smoothly, covering the Ethereum mainnet and several mainstream L2s, and also connecting protocols like Symbiotic and Gearbox.
Following this chain downward, the beneficiaries are the solvers—whoever grabs the order gets the profit. Passive users might be those accustomed to manual cross-chain operations, as complexity is being absorbed by the product. The next steps IRF plans to push are yield deployment and rebalancing, essentially packaging strategies into a single intention.
A very specific observation point: after the first batch of strategies go live, watch the actual transaction volume and failure rate of the solvers. If there are only intention declarations without stable fulfillment, this chain still lacks a crucial link.
#Arc主网上线首日数据出炉
#标普领投Kaiko，布局链上数据标准 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 $ETH Are $CORE institutions really waiting for the CORE banking narrative, or are they waiting for retail investors to buy into the grand story?
Recently, the overseas community has been in an uproar: many influencers are connecting Tokyo business, the Antarctic expedition, and the Satoshi Plus ecosystem map, imagining a complete storyline—an underlying public chain foundation, comprehensive implementation of payments, banking, copyrights, and stablecoins, fully capitalizing on BTCFi dividends.
The bullish side:
It’s not an ordinary MEME; it’s an underlying chain with BTC lineage. Many institutional players don’t care about short-term fluctuations of 0.01 or 0.008; they are betting on the first public chain that truly integrates BTC hashrate with the EVM ecosystem. The reluctance to dump is to preserve long-term institutional expectations.
The bearish side:
Banking, copyrights, and global payments are all long-term stories. Current on-chain real transaction volume, developer count, and stablecoin scale do not support such a high valuation. The so-called "institutional accumulation" is mostly community speculation without public address evidence. The project team’s lack of dumping might simply be due to no suitable selling window, not because they are preparing for a multiple-fold rally.Last night, it was predicted that the rate hike decision would rally and then pull back. Many friends are now wondering: why is it still rising? The core message: Negative news landing does not mean an immediate plunge; the current situation is a typical bullish rebound rally. ✅ Reason for the rise: The rate hike boot has landed, short-term capital betting has exhausted all negative factors and entered to buy the dip. However, the dot plot hawkish signal has not disappeared, and there is still a possibility of one rate hike within the year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high, and the underlying logic of high yields suppressing long-term stock valuations remains unchanged. This rebound is mostly a game of shrinking volume and existing stocks, with no new growth line funds entering the market, resulting in weak momentum. 📈 Rebound room forecast: This is a weak rebound, with core resistance near the previous high. It is highly likely to be touched and then pulled back—this is the key range for short positions to watch. ⚠️ If the volume surges strongly and breaks through previous highs, it means the previous judgment is invalid. You must strictly follow stop-loss measures and avoid holding 💡 on. For those holding short positions: Don't let intraday bullish trends disrupt your rhythm. Rarely do the market plunge instantly; often, a rally to lure bulls first, attracting chasing funds before starting a pullback. This rebound is essentially providing a window for bulls to reduce positions and exit. As long as the core logic is not broken, you can patiently hold your position; Never lose the risk control bottom line; set stop-losses in advance and control positions. Sector focus: Storage ($SNDK, $SKHYNIX, $MU) The storage sector is most sensitive to US Treasury yields; this round is just sentiment recovery, not a fundamental reversal. After the rebound hits resistance, the pressure to pullback remains significant.7.5 million transactions—this is the amount Nomina's SolverNet has already produced, not the plan in the white paper.
IRF took it all, packaging technology, brand, and infrastructure.
What I admire is this choice. They've been talking about executing this track for a long time, but very few have actually run in production and connected to Ethereum mainnet and several mainstream L2s.
From the holder's perspective, the value of this is not in the acquisition itself, but in that SolverNet has shifted from "running" to "someone using it as a product." The IRF said it will promote on-chain yield deployment and cross-chain fund transfers, with each strategy having a different intention.
Plans are plans, but the real results will only be revealed in a few months.
To be honest, it's not unusual for the agreement to be acquired; what's interesting is that buyers have real transaction volume and are willing to continue building. What I'm watching is whether any new products will actually launch soon.
#Arc主网上线首日数据出炉
#标普领投Kaiko. Laying out on-chain data standards #BTC财库优先股融资升温 $ETH People have been asking: Does the bull market rotation (altseason) really still exist, or has it completely ended?
Recently, we've seen some things start to emerge—$HYPE, $ZEC, $LIT, $VVV, and now $NEAR is also awakening. But it's not a full-scale rollout; it's selective.
Why? Liquidity. There isn't enough truly liquid capital in the market right now. When liquidity is tight, usually only a few assets will start moving simultaneously. The rest just stay put.
If you want to see a broader rally, $BTC needs to push higher first. This is usually the pattern—Bitcoin leads, liquidity follows, then altcoins get their turn. But before this happens, expect rotation rather than an explosion.Who would have thought that the most outrageous thing today wasn't a rate hike, but that after the hike, the market didn't collapse!
Honestly, today's market performance exceeded expectations.
Logically, with rate hikes implemented and clear bills not passed, market sentiment should have been clearly under pressure. So what was the result?
$BTC and $ETH are ridiculously tough, unable to break down, and instead, there have been constant buying opportunities.
This shows that, at least from a short-term perspective, the market's resilience to these negative factors is stronger than many people imagine.
If the clear bill doesn't pass, it's negative; If interest rate hikes are implemented, it's negative; Almost all the news that should have arrived has arrived.
But the price simply didn't see the big drop everyone expected.
At this point, what really matters to watch is not whether it will fall further, but how much selling pressure will remain after all the negative news has materialized.
If the market continues to digest the news, and BTC and ETH can hold steady or even strengthen again, the market could become increasingly interesting.
Don't rush to shout the bull market is over, and don't rush to go all-in.
Let's first look at how the market moves; prices are always more honest than sentiment.
#DailyOrbit Washington is assembling crypto policy piece by piece. On Sept 16, H.R.10357 cleared Ways and Means 38-5, while H.R.8957 advanced from Financial Services 28-21.
The notable signal is breadth: tax treatment is moving alongside a proposed federal Bitcoin reserve with a minimum 20-year holding rule. That is not yet a framework; both bills need further Congressional action, and CLARITY remains stalled.
#CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve $SOXLB current price 107.37, 24h +2.70%, trading volume 5.4M USDT, MA5=106.912 has crossed above MA20=106.694, MACD histogram turned positive +0.003973, RSI 56.9, Bollinger Bands [103.857, 109.53], Fear and Greed Index 50 neutral. The moving averages are in a bullish alignment and the price is holding above both moving averages, which is the first layer of confirmation for a healthy trend; however, RSI has not exceeded 60 and the MACD histogram is very thin, indicating momentum is just starting and not in an acceleration phase.
Here is a reusable method for market analysis: use moving averages to determine direction, RSI to assess position, and MACD histogram to gauge strength; only when all three resonate is the trend considered healthy. Currently, SOXLB is "direction correct, position neutral, strength weak," which is a pullback confirmation structure rather than a breakout chasing structure. The price is close to the upper Bollinger Band at 109.53, so chasing longs directly has low cost-effectiveness; waiting for a pullback near MA5 around 106.9–107.0 to enter long is more reasonable. This level also coincides with MA20 support, providing double moving average support; stop loss should be placed below the lower Bollinger Band at 103.857, as a break below would mean the short-term trend structure is broken; take profit 1 is at the upper Bollinger Band 109.53, which is the current range top; take profit 2 is at the previous high extended to 111.5, corresponding to about a 7.5% amplitude upward breakout measurement."Bottom-fishing in a bear market" is the biggest reason retail investors lose money.
Everyone tells you: "In a bear market, you have to bottom-fish, buy more as prices fall, and average down your cost."
You listen, BTC drops to 60,000, you buy. It drops to 50,000, you buy again. It drops to 40,000, you pour all your savings in.
What happens? BTC continues to fall to 30,000, you're stuck tight, out of ammo, and can only watch it drop, finally cutting losses at the lowest point.
Today, I’m telling you a counterintuitive truth: the phrase "bottom-fishing in a bear market" is the biggest reason retail investors lose money.
Why?
Because most people don’t really know what the "bottom" is.
You think 60,000 is the bottom, but it falls to 50,000. You think 50,000 is the bottom, but it falls to 40,000. You think 40,000 is the bottom, but it falls to 30,000.
In a bear market, the "bottom" is never a price point; it’s a process. A long, grinding, despair-inducing process.
You think you’re bottom-fishing, but you’re actually buying halfway up the mountain.
By the time you truly reach the bottom, you’ve long run out of ammo, lost all confidence, and already cut your losses and fled.
Why is "buying more as prices fall" wrong?
Because the premise of "buying more as prices fall" is that the asset will eventually rebound.
But the problem is, in crypto, 99% of assets never recover once they fall. $BTC $ETH $ZEC — two U.S. crypto bills are moving forward, and the long-term impact could matter more than today’s candle. ₿ BTC Reserve Bill Confiscated Bitcoin would be treated as a strategic reserve and held for at least 20 years, rather than being casually sold. Importantly, this proposal doesn’t rely on the government buying BTC from the market. 📈 My read: potentially bullish for BTC over the long run, but any initial 2–4% reaction could easily fade once the headline gets priced in. 💰 CryWho pushed the sharp drop this round?
It's not a single thunderclap, but several pressures tightening simultaneously💥
① Regulatory catalyst delayed
The CLARITY Act is stalled in the Senate, cooling compliance expectations, and short-term policy benefits are absent.
② Interest rate narrative reversal
As the rate decision window approaches, “higher rates for longer” becomes the main theme again, suppressing risk appetite.
③ US Treasury siphoning funds
The 10-year yield briefly broke 5%, making risk-free returns more attractive, draining liquidity from the crypto space.
④ ETF buying weakens
BTC and ETH ETF inflows slow down, institutional marginal support declines, and the price floor thins.
⑤ Leverage negative feedback
After breaking key levels, long stop-losses and forced liquidations trigger in a chain, amplifying selling pressure programmatically.
Now, don’t just focus on the drop percentage; the key is to judge:
Is this a deep shakeout or a weakening trend?
Focus on:
BTC support near $75,000 + Federal Reserve rate decision wording + ETF fund flows $BTC The first time I heard about $BTC was on a night I was working late overtime.
A colleague was eating instant noodles while saying this thing could skyrocket.
I just smiled at the time but kept it in mind.
On the way home, I started searching and got more and more confused.
Eventually, I couldn’t resist and bought a little bit.
That night after buying, I woke up three times, each time reaching for my phone.
A little rise made me happy, a little drop made me curse my own recklessness.
A few days later, I saw someone talking about $ETH, saying it could do many things.
I bought a bit too, but the fees alone made me wince.
It wasn’t a loss on price, but the hassle felt like skinning myself.
Later, someone in the group shouted about $SOL, saying it’s very fast.
I followed with a small amount, and indeed it was fast, my heart raced too.
If I didn’t check for a few minutes, the numbers would change their expression.
At that time, I even forgot to pick up my delivery and declined friends’ basketball invites.
My family asked why I always looked tired, I just said I’ve been busy lately.
But what was I busy with? Just staring at some lines and overthinking.
I got jealous seeing others show off their profits in the group.
But if I really rushed in, I was usually catching the last wave.
The people shouting trades wouldn’t bear my losses.
Slowly I learned to be wise, only playing with spare money.
No borrowing, no heavy positions, no staying up late watching the market.
Take some profit when you have it, don’t always try to catch the peak.
Don’t rush to recover losses; the more anxious you are, the easier you lose control.
There’s a market every day, but if the principal is gone, there’s really nothing left to play.
Being able to sleep soundly is more real than any get-rich-quick story.
After all this, my biggest takeaway is not to get carried away.
Live your life as you should; crypto is just a small part of it. #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 The fuller this $CORE ecosystem map is drawn, the more you need to take a closer look
Many people glance over this map at a glance: Core Network, Satoshi Plus, a globe in the center, surrounded by a ring of hexagons—DeFi, DEX, NFT, DAO, Stablecoin, Pay, Bank, Fund, Metaverse, Oracle, Swap, Copyright, EVM compatibility, PoW+DPoS, high TPS, low fees, 100MB large blocks.
It’s really lively. But ecosystem maps are the easiest thing to turn "planned" into "already realized."
Already in action:
- EVM compatibility—this one is real, and it’s the foundation that allows it to leverage BTCFi and bring over Ethereum ecosystem tools.
- PoW+DPoS dual consensus—the core of Satoshi Plus, the root of its narrative.
- DEX / Swap—there are indeed projects running in the early ecosystem, but the depth and real trading volume lag far behind top DeFi projects.
- Oracle, Stablecoin—there are attempts, but native BTC oracles and stablecoins are industry-wide challenges themselves.
Still at the vision stage:
- DAO, Fund, Bank, Pay, Copyright, Metaverse—this whole circle is mostly "can be built" at present,The $ZEC chart and my account balance are telling two very different stories. Since this morning, my hand has been hovering over the stop-loss button, but I still haven't pulled the trigger. The position is facing strong resistance, and I don't expect a clean move toward $1,400–$1,500 without some kind of correction or sideways consolidation first. For me, the key is simple: Consolidation → strength → breakout → new highs. Trying to force the move before that happens is where the risk increases.🚨 $SNDK: 2X LONG JUST DROPPED — BUT PRICE STILL LOOKS HEAVY. SNDK fell from 1806 → 1507 and is now stuck around 1536, with the moving averages tangled and SAR still above at 1568. RSI 39–44. J ≈46. No real reversal signal yet — just slow bleeding. The interesting part? A 2X leveraged long product launches while the chart is still in a downtrend. That’s not a signal to chase the dip. Leverage cuts both ways. 👀 1507 is the key level I’m watching. If 1507 breaks, would you catch the knife or waitThe day after the Clear Act failed, the SEC and CFTC announced they would use existing powers to start writing rules.
The CFTC said it’s ready to set sail, and the SEC said it will take action regardless of new legislation.
The Senate procedural vote failed 49 to 50, and just one day later, CFTC Chair Selig posted that the commission "has locked in and is ready to set sail" on rules. SEC Chair Atkins followed up saying, "Whether or not there is new legislation, we will decisively act within our existing authority." According to Decrypt’s report, Selig had employees working on exchange and leverage trading rules as early as August, while the SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets proposal is still open for comments until October 20.
A reminder: Selig himself said in August that he prefers Congress to legislate because administrative rules can be undone by the next chair. People are now definitely more focused on how the two agencies will divide jurisdiction; whether this year’s re-election is important or not has become less urgent.$BTC CLARITY Act negotiations collapse, Bitcoin directly crashes below 76K!
The Republicans just rejected the Democrats' latest counterproposal.
Policy expectations instantly start to cool down!
The last few key votes have become harder to secure.
The market has already reacted with price!
After the Republicans rejected the Democrats' latest CLARITY Act counterproposal, BTC quickly fell below $76,000, indicating that funds are rapidly withdrawing part of the "smooth progress of the bill" policy premium. The critical procedural vote is approaching, but both sides still haven't reached a compromise on the core terms, making the 60-vote threshold more uncertain again.
The short-term focus should be on whether the 76K level can be quickly reclaimed and whether a new version compromise might suddenly appear in the last few hours. If negotiations continue to stall, policy expectations may continue to suppress Crypto; but if there is a sudden turnaround at the last moment, the shorts previously pushed out could quickly cover and fuel a rebound.
The moment the news broke, it dropped below 76K, showing that this policy line can now directly impact the market.
Next, watch the last few hours closely; both a breakdown or a turnaround could further amplify volatility!The deepest insight today: rhythm is more important than direction.
When prices rise, everyone is an analyst; when they fall, everyone becomes a prophet. But the market never listens to whoever shouts the loudest. Most of the time, it just pulls back and forth, asking the undecided to get off, then moves forward lightly.
Right now, I'm focusing on four things: whether $BTC can hold the central pivot without breaking, whether $ETH's trading volume continues to keep up, whether there is a clear capital shift between $SOL and $SUI, and whether altcoins as a whole are rising with the market or already falling behind. When the mainstream is strong, altcoins have the confidence to spread; when the mainstream shrinks in volume, chasing highs is just digging a hole for yourself.
In the end, trading is not about who caught the most hundredfold coins, but who is still in the game after several big swings. Missing out on a rally won't matter much, but getting carried away once can wipe out months of accumulation.
The noisier the market, the more you need to listen to your own rules, not the market's noise.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 9.17 BTC and ETH strategy reference: No dovish signals means hawkish, continue shorting on the rebound!
In the early morning, the Fed announcement landed: a rate hike of 25 basis points. The market was as dead as still water, and many people started self-brainwashing again: "No drop means strength" and "Is there going to be good news?"
If you really listen to Powell's speech, you'll know — this guy was dodging the whole time, saying "data dependent" here and "still some way to go" there. It sounds like he said nothing, but if you look for any phrase like "imminent easing or preparing to cut," there isn't a single one. No dovish signals means hawkish; what the market fears most is not the rate hike itself, but "don't expect me to save you."
Why no big plunge? Because the punishment from the rate hikes has already been mostly absorbed in the past few days. Those who should run have run, those who should lie low have done so. Now the bad news is held back without being released, which doesn't mean the market is turning bullish. Moving sideways doesn't mean the bottom is in; often it just means the bulls are out of ammo and the bears are waiting for the right entry.
So I still say: don't be fooled by the false calm into catching a flying knife. The rebound is not an opportunity; it's a ticket for the bears.
Short BTC around 76800-77300, target first at 74900, if broken then look at 73800.
Short ETH around 2450-2470, target first at 2350, if broken then look at 2300. $BTC $ETH 🔥 $XRP vs $SOL vs $ADA — SAME MARKET, DIFFERENT FUEL.
$XRP → Built around institutional connectivity
$SOL → Driven by on-chain activity + liquidity
$ADA → Focused on decentralization + long-term infrastructure
My view: these aren’t three versions of the same thesis.
XRP need capital to flow in.
SOL need users to keep executing.
ADA need development and adoption to compound.
If liquidity starts coming back into crypto, which engine converts it into the strongest lasting demand?
#SOL #Crypto9.17 Yesterday's Summary
Market Review: The recovery rebound after the rate hike landing is not yet the time for a reversal.
Yesterday's market matched expectations: rate hike landing + major drop recovery, no unexpected reversal, only expected fluctuations.
The Federal Reserve's September rate hike of 25bp was delivered as expected, but the dot plot, which truly determines the medium-term direction, released a more hawkish signal than expected, raising expectations for further hikes within the year and extending the duration of high interest rates.
This means the rate hike landing is not the end of negative news; it just replaced the September rate hike uncertainty with a new suspense about a rate hike at the end of October.
BTC stabilized and rebounded after dipping near 760, fluctuating overall between 762-767, with relatively stronger recovery strength.
ETH's rebound strength is noticeably weaker than BTC's, hovering between 2420-2470, showing less elasticity under hawkish expectations. Essentially, both are emotional recoveries after overselling, with no new funds entering, still a game among existing market funds.
In a fluctuating market, not chasing highs or selling lows, operating between support and resistance is the most comfortable rhythm.
$BTC $ETH #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 No new direction from global macro, no new wording from the Federal Reserve, and no marginal changes in dollar liquidity. The perpetual funding rate of the crypto market has returned to a neutral bias, and overall risk appetite continues to contract. Small-cap tokens like SYN can only be analyzed based on their own order book.
Current price is 0.19278. The 4-hour naked candlestick fluctuates repeatedly between 0.1880 and 0.1960, with dense lower shadows but insufficient rebound momentum. There is obvious resistance from major sell orders above, and the buy side below has not withdrawn, indicating short-term is a zero-sum game without a clear one-sided trend.
Just sent this order to the sixth floor of the old neighborhood, out of breath, and the phone keeps vibrating with debt reminders. The order book has pulled back to around 0.1900; at this position, confirmation is needed before acting, no direct chasing.
Entry range is 0.1890 to 0.1910, with a stop loss set below 0.1850, for example at 0.1845. The first take profit target is 0.1980, and if broken through, look to 0.2030.
If the 4-hour candle closes below 0.1850, it means the support below is a false signal; do not reverse to buy, wait to see around 0.1780.
Position size should be controlled within 20%. This kind of token is easily stopped out by liquidity spikes, so recovering losses depends on execution, not luck.
$SNX
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
@OKX星球 Good morning brothers, last night the FOMC rate hike was finalized. Before the hike, 80% of the market had already anticipated it, and most of the negative factors had actually been priced in early on the charts.
After the decision, the market experienced sharp back-and-forth fluctuations but did not crash immediately. However, the post-meeting remarks were hawkish, clearly stating that high interest rates will be maintained for a long time, and there is still a possibility of further tightening by the end of the year, which is not good news for the crypto space.
To put it plainly, the rate hike is now a done deal, and short-term panic has been released, but the overall environment has not improved. US Treasury yields remain high, and funds are still reluctant to flow into the high-risk crypto market. ETFs continue to see outflows, and big money’s risk-averse stance remains unchanged.
Therefore, it’s very difficult for BTC and ETH to stage a decent rebound, with heavy resistance above. Smaller coins are even worse off; volatile ones like ZEC will be dragged by the overall market. Once macro sentiment weakens, the drop will be even more severe. Still too cautious 😭, I sold ZEC before the meeting.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 The interest rate hike has landed.
A pretty classic expectation landing, but it didn't crash further.
Everyone was waiting for the interest rate hike to land to push $SNDK down again, breaking through 1500, but it only dipped to 1507 before stabilizing, and today it remains steady above 1550.
The negative news that the whole market is shouting about often isn't truly negative.
The interest rate hike expectation was speculated on for almost a month; SNDK fell from 1805 to 1500, a drop of over 16%. The leverage that should have exploded and the panic selling that should have happened were actually digested along the way. When the boot finally dropped, there was surprisingly little selling pressure.
It's not just SNDK; BTC and ETH also didn't experience the big crash that the bears hoped for, and none of the key supports were broken. Those who previously shouted that prices would fall to 1400 or 1300 are now starting to wait and see again.
I opened a 20x long position at 1440 and have held it until now. The floating profit has been a roller coaster, but I haven't moved it. It's not stubborn holding; I believe the fundamentals of AI storage haven't deteriorated. This drop is more about valuation cuts driven by overall market sentiment, not a change in company logic.
What’s worth watching next is not the interest rate hike itself, but how the market trades this outcome. The negative news landing is just the first act; wearing down the bears' patience is where the real market begins.
I'll keep holding and watching; if it really breaks below 1480, I'll exit.
The above is just a personal position record and does not constitute any investment advice! On Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee passed the "2026 U.S. Reserve Modernization Act" (H.R.8957) by a vote of 28 to 21. This codifies the "strategic Bitcoin reserve" from the Trump executive order into law: the Treasury Department will establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve plus a separate digital asset inventory, with seized BTC and other digital assets entering the inventory; BTC in the reserve must be locked for at least 20 years; federal agencies must comprehensively inventory holdings and provide quarterly reserve certifications and third-party audits. The bill also requires studying budget-neutral paths for increasing holdings and allows states to deposit Bitcoin into the Federal Reserve system. Cointelegraph cited Arkham's estimate that the U.S. government holds about 324,500 BTC (approximately $24.7 billion). Committee approval does not equal law; it still must pass the full House and Senate. After the CLARITY bill stalled, this "seized BTC hoarding" line has instead moved forward in the House. #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 $BTC $ETH #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
Bitcoin and Ethereum "roller coaster" record: Who is holding the flag under the double policy blow.
ETH has shown subtle relative strength in this storm. Since rebounding from the early September low of $2,061, ETH has risen about 18% cumulatively, with a nearly 58% increase in Q3, potentially ending the previous three consecutive quarters of decline. Fundstrat's Tom Lee previously predicted ETH would break the continuous decline pattern, basing his logic on institutional allocation demand and the potential passage of the CLARITY Act — which is currently the biggest uncertainty.
Divergence is the keyword of this market. BTC market dominance remains above 58%, with funds highly concentrated in top assets, while the altcoin season index is only about 36. Although the fear and greed index jumped from 57 to 69, the perpetual contract funding rate is only +0.0036%, in a relatively low range — sentiment is greedy, but leverage is cooling; this divergence is more intriguing than the index itself.
When macro headwinds and policy deadlock press simultaneously, Bitcoin proves its depth by defending the $75,000 level, while Ethereum tells a different story with a quarterly-level rebound. However, the next direction of the CLARITY Act is the core variable determining whether this market move is a "fake fall" or a "real turn."Back then, I was still using an old phone with a cracked screen.
I came across people talking about $BTC, but I couldn’t understand it after looking for a while.
I just thought the numbers going up and down were quite intriguing.
Later, I got an itch to buy a little, and after buying, I kept staring at it.
On the subway to work, the signal was spotty, but I still insisted on refreshing.
When it went up, I felt pretty good about myself; when it dropped, I told myself to just hold on.
Actually, I was very anxious inside, but I kept a tough front.
One time, I woke up in the middle of the night, checked the market on my phone, and it was past 3 a.m.
The next day at a meeting, I almost fell asleep and got a glare from my boss.
Later, I tried $ETH, and the fees stuck in my mind for a long time.
It wasn’t that I lost money on the price, but after a few transactions, I felt it wasn’t worth it.
Then I heard $SOL was fast, so I put in a small amount too.
It really is fast, and my heart raced too.
If I didn’t check for a few minutes, the numbers would change completely.
During that time, I was too lazy to even pick up my food delivery.
When friends invited me to play basketball, I said maybe next time.
My family asked why I seemed so tired lately, and I could only smile.
Someone in the group chat shouted trading tips, and at first, I actually believed them.
Later, I realized the louder they shouted, the more likely they were leading people astray.
I just glance at those showing off profits; who knows what’s really going on behind the scenes.
Now I only play with spare money, nothing that affects my meals or sleep.
No borrowing, no heavy positions, no following the crowd.
If there’s profit, I take a bit and don’t always think about getting rich overnight.
If I lose, I don’t rush to break even; the more anxious, the messier it gets.
There’s a market every day, but if the principal is gone, there’s really nothing left to play with.
After all this, my biggest takeaway is not to get carried away.
Being able to sleep soundly is better than any get-rich-quick story. #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 BTC did something very extreme today, dropping to 75055 and then pulling back to 76600.
Yesterday it opened at 76506, reached a high of 77349, a low of 74956, closed at 75789, with a volume of 528 million. Today it opened at 75791, reached a high of 76775, a low of 75055, current price around 76603. Volume is 276 million, Asian session is still early.
The resistance above is between 76603–76775, further up 77349 and 79600 are even stronger. On the downside, first watch 75055, if broken easily look at 74956.
In the short term, first see if 76600 can hold. Don’t chase if it can’t hold at 76775. For those already holding, watch if 75055 can support; if not, reduce some positions and wait for volume to return in the European and American sessions before seeing if it can challenge 77349 again. $BTC Just a few days ago, people were asking if the Fed would raise rates, and early this morning, the answer was out. In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4%, with a vote of 12 to 0. Is this increase the end of it? Are US stocks still going to buy? The crypto world has already fallen before—can we catch our breath now? Let's talk about Yun's view on this matter. Yun believes that this time the question needs to be recalculated is how long high interest rates will last. If the original buy judgment included rate cuts next year and lower financing costs, then this part of the expectation needs to be adjusted. Let's discuss this in detail below. 1. Why is there another rate hike? The Fed's statement this time is very direct: inflation remains elevated, economic activity continues to grow steadily, and consumption and capital investment still support. Based on its assessment of the economy, there is still room to continue controlling inflation. Yun believes this is also what has made the market uncomfortable this time. Since the economy is not clearly broken, the Fed is not in such a hurry to lower rates. The economy is resilient and helps corporate sales. But inflation remains slow, and companies and residents still have to bear the cost of borrowing. For those holding stocks, both sides must be calculated together. How much corporate revenue can grow, whether profits can cover financing and operating costs, ultimately affects the valuation they are willing to offer. 2. Might there be more increases this year, but not as quickly as next year? In this economic forecast, officials forecast the median federal funds rate for the end of this year at 4.1%, correctMatt Huang from Paradigm came out to talk about $ZEC.
To be honest, at first glance I thought it was just another project team endorsement.
After reading it, I found that what he said was actually quite a helpless matter.
Every chain has to maintain a developer fund.
Where does the money come from? Taking a bit from inflation is considered the least disruptive way.
But the key is in the latter part.
He said relying solely on coin holdings for voting will, in the long run, damage $ZEC's trust as a currency.
I agree with that.
Think about it, whoever holds more coins has the final say, so in the end, is this chain for big coin holders or for people who use it as money?
Privacy coins fundamentally rely on trust.
If governance goes wrong, the whole story falls apart.
So this news doesn't have much direct impact on the price.
It's more like adding a brick to $ZEC's long-term narrative.
In the short term, the grind will continue as usual.
I do want to ask people in the community, have you really ever spent $ZEC as money?
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 $ZEC I’m betting the Fed won’t raise rates tonight, but I expect hikes to come in the following months.
My view is that the market could rally first, then reverse sharply — especially because current expectations may already be much higher than reality.
For $ETH, my invalidation is clear:
If the rebound breaks above 2466, I’ll admit defeat and cut the position.
If it stays below 2466, I’m planning to hold and watch for a move below 2240.
Let’s see how the market plays it out. 📉
#DailyOrbit 【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜ETH September 17】
Don't chase ETH at noon; the key is whether 2450 can hold steady.
BigCheds (@BigCheds) original view: ETH's 3-day line may form a bearish checkmate. Editor's analysis: 2369—2450 remains the confirmation zone.
Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) original view: BTC is near the August low and the 4H 200MA/EMA; FOMC disturbances have cleared. Editor's analysis: ETH needs to recover; BTC must not drag down risk appetite further.
Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) original view: Rate hikes under high debt may also stimulate financial assets. Editor's analysis: This is a medium-term bullish bias, but it doesn't mean 2433 can be chased unconditionally.
The Flow Horse (@TheFlowHorse) reminds not to rely solely on funding rates to judge direction; Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) emphasizes to first assume the next move will be wrong.
Plan: Hold 2369; ETH is expected to oscillate between 2369—2450 with a bias toward recovery; only if volume breaks above 2450 and holds above 2430 on a pullback, then look for 2488—2520. Falling below 2369 invalidates the setup. Leverage traders should beware of repeated stop hunts after FOMC.
#BTC #ETH #OKB $SOL Bearish bias: rebound blocked at 98.7-99.7 or break below 95.66 Trading plan｜Short-term direction: bearish Entry zone: 98.7833–99.725; trigger: 95.66; invalidation: 101.1376; take profit: 96.4291, 94.5457. Mid-term observation: trend is weak, price is pressured by EMA20 (99.25) and EMA60 (100.64), structure has not turned strong. MACD death cross with expanding negative momentum bars, RSI 42.38 in weak zone; volume increased 2.09 times accompanying the decline. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 This clearly contradicts the simple narrative of "rate hike = immediate bearish impact."
The reason is that this rate hike had already been priced in by the market with over 90% probability; the event itself is basically priced in; what really remains is the long-term interest rate — the 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 5.02% after the decision.
At the same time, two Fed governors opposed the rate hike, indicating that there is not complete consensus internally on continuing tightening.
Therefore, the most important research variable now has shifted: it is not that the Fed raised rates by 25bp this time, but how long the long-term funding cost around 5% can be maintained.
If the 10Y yield continues to stay above 5% while BTC still holds recent lows, it indicates that the crypto market's marginal sensitivity to interest rate shocks is decreasing; if yields continue to rise accompanied by BTC breaking down, high funding costs still hold pricing power最近这几天币圈特别有意思，行情一涨，评论区全是“10万美金只是开始”“ETH一万刀见”“SUI还能翻三倍”；行情一跌，又变成“牛市结束了”“赶紧跑”。很多人每天都在两个极端情绪之间来回切换。 我越来越觉得，真正赚钱的人，不是预测最准的人，而是纪律最强的人。 这一轮行情，我看到太多人犯同一个错误：盈利的时候舍不得卖，亏损的时候舍不得割。账户从几万赚到几十万，又从几十万跌回原点，最后一句话总结：“早知道当时卖一点就好了。” 可市场从来不会给“早知道”。 我今年给自己定了一条纪律，不猜顶部，只执行计划。 BTC涨一段，我卖一点；ETH涨一段，我卖一点；SUI、SOL也是一样。不是因为我不看好，而是因为利润只有落袋一部分，后面才能拿得住。 很多人总觉得卖了以后继续涨怎么办？ 答案其实很简单：卖飞永远比坐电梯舒服。 卖飞说明你赚钱了；坐电梯说明利润没了，心态也没了。 还有一个特别危险的习惯，就是不断加仓热门币。今天涨了追，明天跌了补，后天再跌继续补，最后仓位越来越重，一次回调就把整个账户拖下去。 牛市不是比谁仓位重，而是比谁能活到最后。 最近我观察几个币，发现一个规律。 BTC依旧是整个市场的方Paradigm's boss is worried about $ZEC, but I'm only looking at the short term
Matt Huang said the developer fund cannot be cut.
A VC guy is concerned about the governance of privacy coins.
What he said: Voting purely based on coin holdings will weaken $ZEC's monetary trust.
Why it matters: This statement admits that $ZEC's pricing power is not in the hands of retail investors.
The counterintuitive part: Those who shout for decentralization are actually most afraid of pure voting.
Because whales can change the rules with one vote, while retail investors can only follow.
In the short term, this governance discussion does not bring buying pressure.
It brings division, and division means volatility.
I bet this hype won't last more than three days, $ZEC will go back where it should.
The positions of the five-guarantee households are still holding, no comment on direction.
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 $ZEC #OKX百万规划师
1 million USDT allocation: 50% crypto core holdings, 35% tokenized stocks, 15% cash defense.
Crypto core holdings (500,000): ETH 300,000 + BTC 200,000
ETH allocation is higher than BTC, based on clear capital rotation signals. Since September, Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows of $324 million, surpassing Bitcoin's $307 million; last week ETH ETFs had net inflows of $197 million, while BTC ETFs had net outflows of $463 million. BlackRock's ETH A-shares attracted $149 million in a single day, ranking first. The ETH/BTC ratio formed a golden cross since June, outperforming BTC by about 20% in Q3.
Tokenized stocks (350,000): XNVDA 200,000 + XSPY 150,000
OKX supports 100 tokenized US stocks and ETFs with 24/7 trading, purchasable directly with USDT without opening a separate brokerage account. AI computing power is the biggest current narrative, with Nvidia as the core target; XSPY provides large-cap exposure to balance the high volatility of crypto assets. Tokenized stocks represent price exposure without actual shareholder rights.
Cash (150,000): bullets waiting to be fired
The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points, with the dot plot indicating possibly one more hike this year. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5%. Regulatory uncertainty has increased after the CLARITY Act was rejected. Cash is not lying flat; it is buying the "right to wait."
Core principle: don't guess the bottom, wait for trend confirmation. Large funds calculate drawdowns first, then returns.
@OKX中文 The $75000 level wasn't lost this time, so it held up decently. In the few minutes after the rate decision, Bitcoin surged then pulled back, but volume didn't follow through, indicating that buyers weren't fully committed. Gold prices probed higher then retreated, as safe-haven and risk positions are being reshuffled. Ethereum is still struggling to keep up, with weaker rebound strength. This kind of "news fully priced in, weak recovery" market is the easiest to lure leveraged traders in before reversing against them. Spot base positions can continue to hold, but short-term positions are best to exit first. In the next day or two, if key levels are repeatedly broken and Ethereum falls below 2300, there will be more downside space. Protect your principal first, then wait for direction. $BTC $ETH #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 At 2:07 AM, someone opened a $ZEC short position
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike at midnight, bringing the rate to 3.75%.
The tone was hawkish, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets came under pressure.
How this trade came about:
Order placed at 2:07 AM, price 1300, direction short.
At the moment the rate hike was implemented, all assets were hit in a round.
Who took the other side:
Market makers don’t need to guess the direction, they just watch which side’s positions are squeezed.
Short positions clustered in one place, pushing the price up one notch can clear a batch.
$ZEC short position floating loss 59%, $LIT deeply trapped 98%.
These numbers are not caused by market drops, but amplified by leverage.
The person placing the order at midnight thought they were betting on the news, but the timing of the news was already on the schedule.
The order book knew before you did.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $ZEC $LIT Last night FOMC: Raised rates, and there may be more in the future
• 16 out of 18 members believe there will be at least one more hike this year
• Year-end rate forecast raised from 3.8% to 4.1%
• Inflation forecast revised upward, 2% target continues to be pushed back
• Walsh's stance is clear: inflation is the priority, market reprices the possibility of further hikes
Logically, this combination should trigger a significant drop, but it did not last night
BTC only dipped to around 75K before quickly recovering, ETH and SOL also did not show trend-level breakdowns. Reason: the market is actually trading not on last night's 25bp hike, but on the continuously heating rate hike expectations over the past two weeks. After CPI and PPI releases, the September hike has already been priced in by most funds; the large-scale liquidation on the day the infrastructure bill vote failed also released some leverage risk in advance
Now it is the pricing digestion after the decision, whether a new trend starts still needs observation
$BTC
Support: 75K, 74K, 72K long liquidation zones
Resistance: 77.4–77.8 (main short liquidation zone)
$ETH Watch the 2500 level
Support: 2370, 2280–2300
Resistance: 2480–2500, 2580–2610
$SOL 95 was not broken by FOMC, still maintaining repair structure.
Support: 94.5–95, 90–92
Resistance: 100–101.5, 105–106
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 The actual protocol revenue is only a few thousand dollars a day, yet it dares to claim a market cap of 30 billion?Sisters, this is so strange.
This market is really strange.
Now it suddenly feels peaceful, like the bull market has just arrived all of a sudden!
Right now, the whole internet is saying that the interest rate hike is as expected, and it’s a positive.
So the entire crypto circle is rising.
Mainstream coins are up, altcoins are also up.
Especially $ZEC, leading the way, carrying the banner alone, bringing the crypto circle up together.
This whole cheerful market feels so strange to me.
ZEC today surged wildly from 1127, reaching a high of 1398.99.
SAR at 1359 is still being trampled underfoot, MACD has a golden cross above the zero line, looking like it’s about to shoot to the sky.
The entire market is celebrating wildly, as if the interest rate hike really turned into a huge positive.
Short-term sentiment definitely needs to be vented, I can understand that.
But precisely because the whole market is showing such positive signs, I feel that’s the biggest problem.
Everyone seems to have suddenly forgotten about the next interest rate hike, and is all crazily speculating on this one negative turning into an expected positive.
The next interest rate hike is at the end of October, only 30 days away from now.
30 days, not too long, not too short.
But I always feel this rally might not be as solid as it looks on the surface, the chance of it being a bluff is quite high.
The manipulators are now using the "as expected" excuse to hype sentiment to the highest point; once they’ve sold off enough, who will care about when the next rate hike is?
When October approaches and the rate hike expectations come back to the forefront, the market might show a different face again.
That’s why I feel very conflicted looking at this market now.
Holding short positions, watching it surge upwards, the unrealized losses really sting, and my palms have never stopped sweating.
But precisely because I’m holding shorts, I pay extra attention to that sword hanging over our heads in October.
The Fed’s next rate hike expectation hasn’t disappeared, it’s just been covered by short-term sentiment.
Once this wave of sentiment recedes, those coins pulled up by sentiment might fall faster than anyone else.
$BTC
$ETH
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 🔥 $BTC / $ONDO / $TAO | THREE DIFFERENT FUTURES
$BTC → optimizing scarcity and trust without intermediaries.
$ONDO → bringing traditional financial assets onto the blockchain.
$TAO → building a market where AI capabilities can be valued and coordinated on-chain.
The commonality is not in the technology, but in what each network aims to become.
$BTC aims for money and reserve assets. $ONDO aims for financial assets. $TAO aims for a market for machine intelligence.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 Saylor's STRC hasn't returned to the $100 peg for 120 days. For over four months, it hasn't even touched parity for a single second.
Why can't it pull back? Mainly because the selling pressure is too strong. Once the confidence gap starts, it's very hard for the company to manage. So recently, instead of buying BTC, they have been spending money to buy back STRC, which is a helpless move.
Because STRC still has nearly a 12% high dividend, this is a cash cost that Strategy must continuously bear to maintain this financing machine. It's like a leaking roof facing heavy rain; the bill didn't pass, and as a result, Strategy dropped 7% that day—really fatal.
The market is starting to refuse to give him money at the price Saylor wants.
This means that it will be even harder for him to finance at a low cost going forward, and the financing model that supports one of BTC's important buy-side players is out of the game.
In plain terms, new buyers, especially large capital buyers, are starting to decrease. This is exactly what those on Wall Street watching him hope for because they can better control the market and find opportunities to pick up subsequent chips. Whether they want to take meat from his bowl depends on whether he survives or not.
Of course, institutions don't want him to fail, especially those who invested, but they definitely don't want to be the ones ultimately backing Saylor's machine.
To put it bluntly, at this stage, institutions want returns; later on, they might want BTC or his life.