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Gold Trading Record on September 16
A total of 8 trades were completed that day, 6 profitable and 2 losing, with a total gain of 105 points, 19861 oil. In a volatile market, do not expect every trade to be profitable; learn to adapt to market fluctuations and maintain your own rhythm.
Trade 1: Entered at 4282, exited at 4295, gained 2340 oil
Trade 2: Entered at 4324, exited at 4355, gained 2144 oil
Trade 3: Entered at 4333, exited at 4342, lost 1481 oil
Trade 4: Entered at 4353, exited at 4361, lost 1672 oil
Trade 5: Entered at 4314, exited at 44280, gained 6220 oil
Trade 6: Entered at 4273, exited at 4295, gained 3810 oil
Trade 7: Entered at 4274, exited at 4255, gained 3806 oil
Trade 8: Entered at 4271, exited at 4265, gained 4694 oil
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 Volatility has compressed to 2.24%. Is this the calm before the storm or the breeding ground for a trend?
The answer depends on whether your position can withstand a false breakout. $BTC current price is 76384, MA5=76196.6 has crossed above MA20=75961.1, MACD histogram +101.9 maintains a bullish stance, RSI at 55.8 is in a neutral to slightly strong zone, and the Bollinger upper band at 76461.7 is right overhead — this is a classic consolidation with a bullish bias. But note: the amplitude of the last 30 candles is only 2.24%, and the Bollinger band width has narrowed to an extreme, indicating that a directional choice is imminent. The fear and greed index is exactly at 50, neutral, with no emotional premium on either bulls or bears. The funding rate of +0.0075% suggests slight crowding on the long side; if there is a false breakout above the upper band followed by a quick pullback, those chasing highs will be instantly flushed out.
My directional view: cautiously bullish, but only enter on pullback confirmation, do not chase breakouts. Entry reference range is 75950–76200, which is the support zone between MA20 and MA5; if the pullback holds, consider light position entry. Take profit 1 is at 76460 (Bollinger upper band, likely resistance on first touch), take profit 2 is at 76900 (measured target extension after breaking the upper band). Stop loss is set at 75400, because below the Bollinger lower band at 75460.4, a break means MA20 is lost and the band width opens downward, invalidating the bullish thesis.15 million USD a year, just to have James post.
I calculated, he earned only 8 million playing for the 76ers over two years. That means Polymarket is offering more than double what he makes playing basketball.
But what's even stranger is the promotional focus—American football.
A basketball player is invited by a stablecoin prediction platform to talk about football. I could almost hear the calculations behind this from my screen.
Polymarket is never after basketball fans; it's targeting those who sit on their sofas every Sunday, phone in hand, betting on the NFL. That’s where the real money in prediction markets lies.
As someone who’s been a seasoned retail investor for years, seeing this kind of news actually makes me calm. Everyone remembers who ended up paying for that wave of celebrity endorsements back in 2021.
Spending money on endorsements shows that what they lack most right now is traffic, not product.
When they start spending money on compliance and liquidity, then I’ll get excited.
Who do you think will end up footing this 15 million bill?
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $ZEC Two major negative factors combined, market sentiment is clearly under pressure.
The stablecoin regulatory proposal only received 48 votes in favor and 51 against in the Senate procedural vote, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, temporarily halting progress. The disagreement mainly centers on issuer qualifications and entry standards, with regulatory authority tugged between state and federal levels, cooling short-term policy optimism.
Tomorrow night’s FOMC meeting is the next focus. The market’s pricing for a rate cut is down to about 10%, with Morgan Stanley and Citi also shifting to a "hold steady" expectation. Even Trump’s calls are unlikely to change the feeling of tight liquidity suppression.
On the market, panic is rapidly releasing: BTC dipped to 78230, close to the previous low of 77150, RSI6 around 29.14; ETH fell below 2450, RSI6 about 22.87, showing severe short-term overselling. SOL is relatively resistant, staying near 168 without a deep drop.
My judgment: oversold only means a rapid drop, not that the bottom is confirmed. Under dual pressure from policy and liquidity, bottom-fishing on the left side is risky; but chasing shorts now is also unwise, as shorts could be covered and pulled up at any time.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Over the latest liquidation cycle, bears have taken the heavier hit, with roughly $7M+ in ZEC short positions wiped out versus under $1M in longs in the latest tracked session. ZEC ripped from around $1,110 to above $1,350, with the latest data showing price holding near $1,350–$1,370 after yesterday’s explosive move. The interesting part is that the Fed’s 25-bps hike failed to trigger the expected breakdown. Instead, ZEC absorbed the volatility and continued pushing higher. Now the key zone is A client "security update" managed to trick mining pools.
ETC had an incident these past two days.
Someone released Core-Geth v1.13.0 under the banner of a security update, without review from the current maintainers.
A few mining pools actually believed it and switched their nodes to run it for a while.
Later they realized something was wrong and switched back to the long-maintained v1.12.23.
Where was the problem?
That version changed chain selection and node discovery.
In plain terms: changing these two things could cause everyone to go off track, risking network splits.
Fortunately, no blocks were lost, no reorgs happened, and no money was lost.
But this situation makes me uneasy.
It's not about the size of the loss; it's that someone dared to impersonate the client.
Today they trick mining pools, who will they trick tomorrow?
Just because nothing happened now doesn't mean this tactic won't escalate later.
Let's keep an eye on how the official side patches this loophole.
On the mining pool side, it's best to double-check the source of the versions again.
#标普领投Kaiko，布局链上数据标准 $ETC Bitfinex's prediction is even more aggressive: by 2026, the RWA market size will reach at least $100 billion, doubling again from 2025. The driving factor is only one — traditional financial institutions are shifting from the experimental phase of "tokenizing for the sake of tokenizing" to the practical phase of solving specific liquidity pain points.
This is no longer a "track." This is a financial expressway being paved.
And the heaviest vehicle on this road is BlackRock.
The BUIDL fund currently has a market value of about $2.8 billion, occupying 18.5% of the $15.1 billion tokenized government bond market, firmly holding the top spot. Since its launch in 2024, BlackRock has not retreated but continues to increase its stake — in May 2026, it submitted a new tokenized fund application to the SEC, and in August, it launched two tokenized money market funds at once.
The world's largest asset management company is not just testing the waters with RWA. It is all in. $ETH $ZEC $RWA#The Fed raises rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 $SOL: Long Position
Trading Strategy:
1. Entry Idea: The current price at 99.61 is approaching the 24-hour high and the 100 psychological level. Aggressive traders can wait for a volume breakout above 99.65 to follow the trend with a light long position; conservative traders should wait for a pullback to stabilize between MA5 (98.70) and MA10 (98.33) before entering long.
2. Defense and Targets: Set stop loss below MA20 (97.77). The first target is the 100.00-102.00 range; a valid breakout could reach the previous high of 104.78.
Core Basis:
1. Technicals are bullish: On the 1-hour chart, moving averages (MA5/10/20) are aligned bullishly and diverging upwards. After a strong V-shaped reversal from the low of 95.66, the price has stabilized above the moving average system, confirming a short-term bullish pattern.
2. Healthy volume-price structure: When the price dropped to 95.66, there was volume expansion at the bottom indicating panic selling was cleared and funds were absorbed; recent rebound volume is moderate, showing light selling pressure, typical of an upward consolidation.
3. Key levels: Resistance lies at 99.65 (24-hour high) and 100.00 (psychological level), requiring volume support for a breakout; support is at 97.77 (MA20), a critical defense line—if not broken, the rebound trend remains intact.
4. Market correlation: Considering today’s short-term rebound in BTC, ETH, and OKB, overall market sentiment is warming up, increasing the probability of SOL strengthening as a mainstream Layer1.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 9.17 BTC near 2450, Qingcang Kong, target 2400/2350
Those wanting to go long can go long near 2370 Qingcang, stop loss at 2330, target 2450/2500.
BTC 1H has fallen steadily from 2666, bottomed at 2357 before starting to recover, currently rebounding near 2430
But resistance remains at 2450-2480, multiple moving averages entangled, not fully bullish yet.
Last night the Fed raised rates by 25bp and signaled continued tightening, combined with CLARITY setbacks,
Middle East tensions and high oil prices, risk sentiment is still fluctuating. Today is the BOE, tomorrow the BOJ, BTC is prone to sharp rises and falls.
9 years of trading experience, the more chaotic the situation, the more it tests mindset and skills.
Light positions, wait for direction before going all in. $ETH #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 $ZEC $SOL #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 ZEC｜0917 Today's Strategy
Direction: Buy on pullback
Entry: Around 1320–1340
Stop Loss: Below 1290
Target: 1380–1400, if breaking 1400 then look at 1450
ZEC had a pretty good run yesterday.
Previously, we were waiting for a low position, starting around 1040 → supported near 1120 → then rallied all the way to around 1400, now the price has returned above 1360.
So today I won’t chase buying above 1370.
What’s more important now is to see if the 1320–1340 area can hold the pullback.
If the pullback holds here steadily, I’m still bullish, first targeting 1380–1400.
If 1400 is effectively broken, then continue to look near 1450.
Conversely, if 1290 can’t hold, then today’s low-position buy logic fails.
My strategy today is simple:
ZEC’s trend is still intact, but the current position is not suitable for chasing.
Wait to buy again on pullback at 1320–1340; if price doesn’t give that position, then wait.
This time I prefer to buy on pullback rather than chase the rally.
Yesterday’s market confirmed the previous judgment, today I’m setting the position in advance.
Strategy disclosed early, let the market verify how the trend unfolds later. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 9.17 Thursday BTC and ETH Analysis
Yesterday's market maintained low-level repeated oscillations during the day. After the sharp drop caused by the setback in the bill vote the previous day, BTC continued to tug back and forth in the 75000-76000 range. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision was announced, initially causing a quick spike to create disturbance, then a sharp decline breaking below the important 75000 support level. Later at night, it staged a bottom-finding rebound, with the price stabilizing above 76000 again, a typical emotional release reaction after news is released.
On the news front, the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike had long been priced in by the market. The real pressure on risk assets is not the rate hike itself, but the post-meeting statement which did not signal any rate cuts. The dot plot shows a potential for further hikes this year, with inflation control remaining the core task, and short-term easing expectations dashed. The strengthening dollar combined with rising US Treasury yields means the medium-term environment remains under pressure for risk assets like crypto.
The negative impact from the blocked crypto bill still lingers, with no positive regulatory news to support the market. Institutional capital inflow willingness is weak, so the market will likely mainly digest bearish sentiment through oscillation.
Trading suggestions:
Short BTC near 76900-77500, target 76100, if broken look to 75000
Short ETH near 2420-2440, target 2370, if broken look to 2350
$BTC $ETH When I was learning to drive
Coach Lao Zhou was in his fifties
Had a bad temper but wasn't a bad person
There was a phone holder on the car
Waiting for students to practice reversing into a parking spot
He would just swipe twice
Once I asked him what he was looking at
He said the numbers
Red and green
I asked if he was into crypto too
He said just messing around
There was a programmer among the students
He chatted with him the whole way
He remembered three names
$TON He said it sounds like a ton
Has weight
$SUI He said it sounds like water
Good liquidity
Actually, he didn't really understand either
$ARB He said it sounds like Arabic
Sounds wealthy
Each bought a few hundred
After buying, he kept pressing the clutch
Cursing
Turning the wheel
Watching the price points
After two months
I got my license
Asked him if he made money
He said he didn't know
Didn't check
Went home and asked his son to check
His son said one went up, one went down, one stayed flat
Lao Zhou said that's okay
Not all up or down
He said this thing is like learning to drive
Rushing is useless
Slamming the gas can cause crashes
Brake when you should brake
Wait when you should wait
Go when you should go
I asked if he would buy more in the future
He said it depends
Throw in some spare money
Don't touch it if it's a lot
Wife manages the money
He only has a few hundred in his pocket
Losses are like smoking
Gains are for buying drinks for students
He said don't always think about hitting it big in one go
Some people do
But not many
Most have to retake the test
Retaking isn't shameful
Shameful is borrowing money to pay for the retake
After listening, I thought it made sense
Later passing by the driving school
Saw him still sitting in the passenger seat
Phone screen lit up
Expression unchanged
Red and green don't matter to him
He only watches if students cross the line
If they cross, they get scolded
Life is the same
If the line is crossed crookedly, it can be fixed
If the money is lost, it's hard to fix 7.5万这次没破，已经算是给多头留面子了。
刚才加息结果公布的那几分钟，$BTC 确实往上抽了一下。
但问题是——抽上去之后，很快又缩了回来。
这说明什么？
至少现在这个位置，接力资金并没有想象中那么强。
再看黄金，也是先冲一波，随后直接砸下来，风险资产内部明显还在重新排序。
$ETH 就更明显了，基本还是跟着大饼走，但反弹力度明显弱了一档。
这种盘面其实最危险。
利空落地了，价格也没继续杀，但反弹又没有持续性。
最容易出现的情况就是： 刚看到反弹，以为底部确认了，杠杆一上，结果下一根直接再扫一遍。
所以我现在的思路很简单：
现货仓位可以留着，先把这个坎过了。 但短线杠杆仓，能轻一点就轻一点，没必要在这种位置硬赌。
接下来一两天重点盯两个位置：
$BTC 7.5万 $ETH 2400
如果7.5万反复被砸，最终还是守不住，ETH连2400也失守，那下面的空间可能还会再打开一截。
现在最重要的不是猜最低点，也不是急着证明自己看对了。
先活着，再谈方向。 市场永远有机会，但爆仓的人没有下一局。
#DOn September 14, a core-geth v1.13.0 that had not passed maintainer review was packaged as a security update and released.
It moves on underlying logic like chain selection and node discovery; a few mining pool nodes were actually past, but later reverted to v1.12.23.
No loss of blocks, no restructuring, no loss of funds—that's right. But the risk isn't in the outcome; it's in the path: the mining pool is confirmed according to the habit of "upgrade whenever there's an update."
I'm used to this habit. Announcement, version number, and security—when you have them, they're like a pass—no one will bother checking who signed it.
If the official repository's name is just one prefix, the price is a consensus fork across the entire chain. In the future, things like this will only get cheaper and more likely.
Next time you see an "emergency security update," first check the publisher, then the version number.
#标普领投Kaiko. Lay out on-chain data standards $ETH 这波从75000反弹到76700，剧本叫“利空落地后的应激反弹”，不是反转。 为什么反弹？三件事同时发生。 第一，加息25个基点早被市场吃透了，概率一度高达92%到94%。决议落地那一刻，利空直接出尽，空头回补加上短线多头抄底，价格自然弹起来。 第二，75000到74800这个区域是近期反复测试的多空分水岭，也是大量多单止损和抄底资金集中的位置。价格打到75000附近，没继续放量下杀，反而迅速收回，说明下方承接不弱。 第三，真正的增量利空是点阵图——2026年还要再加一次，到4.25%，2027年不降息，维持4.25%。但市场消化这个需要时间，第一反应是“加息落地了，先弹一波再说”。 那76700这个反弹能走多远？ 上方压力很明确。 第一压力在76000到76300，第二压力在76500到76700。如果反弹到这里放量突破不了，就是空头中继，不是反转。真正的强压力在78000到79000，那是CLARITY法案失败前的成交密集区。 下方支撑同样清晰。 75000到74800是生命线，破了看74000，再破看73000。如果1小时实体收在74000下方，那就不是黄金坑，是地下室。 法老给Honestly, today's market has me questioning common sense a bit.
The CLARITY program vote failed by 49 to 50, yet the Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points. With both regulation and interest rates pressing down, the normal script would be another round of sell-off, right? But $BTC bottomed at 75,055 and has now pulled back to 76,155; $ETH bounced from 2,368 back up to 2,419, hardly giving the bears any comfort for long.
What does this indicate? At least it shows that those who needed to sell have already sold quite a bit earlier. Despite the negative news, prices managed to recover, meaning the market is stronger than the news.
But I’m not calling for a bull market restart just yet. BTC needs to break above 76,775 and ETH hold above 2,445; only if both break through together does it show buyers are not just defending but genuinely pushing upward. If they can’t, it’s still range-bound.
The most frustrating market for bears isn’t a sudden surge, but a series of bad news with prices refusing to fall. This market today already has that flavor.
$BTC $ETH #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 🚨 US Treasury yields surge｜Risk asset pressure resurfaces
Core logic:
□□ 2-year US Treasury yield nears 4.73%, reflecting the market's repricing of the future interest rate path.
📈 Short-term yields rise → USD gains support, with the dollar index currently around 100.33.
📉 High interest rates + strong USD → valuations of US growth and tech stocks under pressure.
For BTC, tightening USD liquidity means short-term may still see spikes followed by pullbacks, quick wicks, and high volatility. But if the market later finds that "rate hike expectations are fully priced in," it could lead to a drop in US Treasury yields → USD decline → BTC and Nasdaq rebound trading logic.
$BTC practical observation
Bullish conditions:
BTC reclaims 77,500, and 2Y Treasury yield starts to fall → watch for a rebound.
Bearish conditions:
BTC breaks below 76,500, while 2Y yield continues to break above 4.73% → beware of further downside.
What to really watch now is not just the Fed, but the "2-year Treasury yield + USD index + BTC" interaction.
If yields continue to surge, risk asset pressure increases; if yields spike then fall back, BTC may actually see a rebound window. How long can the 1k CNY challenge contract purgatory survive? Day 23
Deposit: 148.58u
Current account balance: 46u!
My humble opinion: The Federal Reserve announced the first 25 basis points rate hike in three years at midnight, but $BTC and $ETH didn’t react much. After some small spikes up and down, they started oscillating near the bottom of the range again! However, most altcoins are a bit restless, some even hitting new highs! This indicates that the market has already priced in this rate hike. From the chart perspective, the recent high-level oscillation is also the digestion of this hike; 25bp was expected, so now that the boot has dropped, the next phase is a breakout from the range and a rally!!
I think $ETH should at least reach 3000; it’s much stronger than $BTC, and the capital inflow intention is clearly stronger! For longs, consider $ETH and its altcoins!!
Operation: Last night before sleeping, I chased a long on $ZEC, and I took profit upon waking, adding some to the account balance, otherwise, there would be nothing to play with!!😣 The main theme going forward should be longs; consider $ETH and some active altcoins at low levels for longs!!$ZEC is the real culprit. I originally thought 1300 was already a very difficult high to break, but last night, due to a short squeeze, it directly hit a new high:
1. Short squeeze confirmed: Last night, over $45 million in shorts were forcibly liquidated in a single day. This kind of upward movement is driven by "forced buying."
Moreover, the current long-short ratio is still 1:2.2, so it’s expected to fluctuate upward for a while and won’t drop quickly to comfort the shorts.
2. The real catalyst is on the governance side: The NU7 upgrade vote passed, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds; 98.9% chose to keep the Bitcoin-style halving mechanism.
Tripling the speed while maintaining supply discipline is a rare substantial upgrade in the privacy coin sector in recent years.
3. Institutional entry is also fast: Grayscale’s spot ETF has been listed for 3 weeks, with assets under management reaching $460 million.
Everyone needs to stay calm. Last night’s high almost touched 1400, RSI is severely overbought, and the price is already 15% away from the MA7.
Historically, the correction of such a divergence rate has only two ways: sideways consolidation or a sharp drop.
Don’t add positions at the peak of emotions. Those who want to catch the last wave of gains often end up stuck at the mountain top.The toughest surprisingly is the crypto circle: when the interest rate hike hit, Bitcoin didn't fall but rose back to 76,000, wiping out the shorts all at once
Originally thought crypto would be the worst hit on the rate hike night
But it taught everyone a lesson called "bad news fully priced in"
After the decision was announced, Bitcoin $BTC first dipped slightly, then quickly rebounded in a V-shape
It retook $76,000, up about 1.5%
Ethereum $ETH climbed back above $2,400, up 1.8%, XRP rebounded 2%, SOL and BNB followed the rise
Why so resilient?
First, 94% of the rate hike expectation had already been priced in, so the actual event was a relief
Second, the previous short positions were too heavy, so once the news came out, they were forced to cover collectively, causing a stampede-like rebound
The panic from the CLARITY Act a few days ago has basically been fully released
But don't get carried away, this looks more like an oversold rebound, not a trend reversal
The dot plot clearly states "possibly one more hike within the year"
The high interest rate environment remains a straitjacket for crypto
The range between 74,000 and 76,000 will see repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears, don't mistake one bullish candle for a reversal $BTC is dead in place, while a bunch of old coins no one pays attention to are secretly throwing a party.
ZEC surged against the trend yesterday, even the airdrop DGAI from the neighboring exchange went up!
Now that all the negative news has been priced in, $BTC's price hasn't dropped, and I've even prepared bullets ready to enter the market~
After the decision, it dipped to 75,055, then was bought back above 76,200 in the early morning. The 75,000 line has been reclaimed for the third time this week; the rate hike itself didn't push it to a new low, indicating those who wanted to sell have already sold, and short-term chips are changing hands.
There's an even more critical level on-chain: Glassnode says the price has fallen below the lower edge of the range since the end of August and also below the real market average (around 76,700), which is the average cost line of active chips. Below that is 71,300, the cost for short-term holders over the past 5 months, the bulls' last face; if broken, the nature changes.
CZ came out saying "every dip is an opportunity," Deutsche Bank plans to include BTC custody in its European institutional business, infrastructure is being strengthened, and short-term funds are retreating. This kind of divergence usually appears during bottoming phases.$XRP in 24 hours +0.48% versus BTC +0.45% — difference +0.03 p.p.
With a position of 77% within the daily range, the question is simple: is this real relative strength or is the movement already fading? #闪迪纳入标普100，下周迎首次定价 SanDisk enters the S&P 100, first pricing next week SanDisk breaks into the S&P 100, the storage sector is going crazy again 🔥
Just saw this news, my first reaction was:
The storage sector really hasn't calmed down recently.
SanDisk $SNDK is confirmed to be included in the S&P 100 before the market opens on September 21, replacing Colgate, along with Dell in the same batch.
What does this mean?
It's simple:
Passive funds will start to lift the stock.
Index funds and ETFs will adjust their portfolios and buy as needed, and the amount of capital involved won't be small.
Even more outrageous, before the news came out, SanDisk had already run ahead, closing with a rebound of 11.9%.
This feeling is very familiar:
Before the news is fully finalized, capital rushes in aggressively.
Next, we will see on the 21st when the official adjustment happens whether the lift continues or the early runners start to cash out.
There are fundamentals supporting this too.
SanDisk and Kioxia continue to collaborate, and Japan is also investing heavily, planning to invest about $31 billion in NAND expansion by 2032.
TrendForce's forecast is also strong:
NAND contract prices in Q3 could still rise 10% to 15% quarter-on-quarter.
However, the pace of price increases has started to slow down.
So this current market is quite exciting:
Index funds are pushing, NAND price increases are supporting, and capacity expansion is chasing from behind.
Bulls and bears are all at the same table.
What I want to focus on now is one thing:
If external tech and storage continue to get excited, will the risk appetite transmit to the crypto market?
$BTC
$ETH
At this position, it's already sensitive enough.
So my thinking today remains the same:
If you have ammo, don't shoot recklessly.
The hotter the market, the more itchy your hands get.
Seeing a rise and chasing, seeing a drop and catching, you might end up getting hit from both sides.
I'd rather miss a move than force trades at such a node.
I'll enter when the right price comes.
If not, I'll wait.
Continuing to watch the market tonight. 👀🔥This morning's Ethereum strategy
Operation:
Short near 2430-2450
First target: 2410-2390
Second target: 2360-2320
Set stop loss properly
After Ethereum surged, it left a long upper shadow, short-term moving averages turned downward, volume shrank, and after a short squeeze, the bullish momentum clearly weakened. My view is: Ethereum has high volatility, tends to follow declines rather than rises, and the end of a short squeeze is often accompanied by a faster pullback. In terms of operation, it is not advisable to chase the drop directly; wait for a rebound to confirm resistance and signs of stagnation before lightly shorting. Set defense above the previous high, exit decisively if broken, and do not hold against the trend. $ETH #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 Is there anyone like me who, when seeing $BTC rise, slaps their thigh and says, "Ah, I missed out again!" and when seeing it fall, feels relieved, "Good thing I didn't buy!" But when actually buying in, they get stuck, and when they really sell, it rebounds.
Current price 76201, resistance 77000, support 75000. I previously lost 200,000 U, just going back and forth like this. Later I realized that instead of chasing highs and selling lows, it's better to place a good order near the support level of 75200 for 5000 U, with a stop loss at 74700; if it reaches, it executes, if not, just wait. Never hold a position without a stop loss; recovering from a 200,000 U loss.
The biggest enemy of retail investors is not the market, but their own hands. Control your hands, and the money will naturally come. #ThisWeekFOMCRevealed, will the rate hike land? $BTC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
CLARITY failed in the Senate, and the House didn't wait. On the same night, the tax bill and the Bitcoin reserve bill advanced on two fronts. The legislative approach shifted from a "big omnibus" to "small cuts," not betting on a single bill passing, but piecing together a regulatory framework through multiple smaller bills.
Two bills, two signals.
The Tax Certainty Act passed the fundraising committee 38 to 5, with overwhelming bipartisan support. The small transaction tax exemption threshold was set at $10, the timing for confirming miners' and stakers' rewards was clarified, and broker reporting standards were unified. These are prerequisites for retail and institutional participation, not trivial details.
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act passed the Financial Services Committee 28 to 21, with clear partisan divisions. The core provision is that the government’s approximately 324,000 BTC holdings are locked for at least 20 years, prohibiting sale, exchange, or pledge. There is no purchase authorization; it is purely a "lock-up" bill. Accompanying measures introduce quarterly reserve attestations and third-party audits.
The tax bill secured bipartisan majority support, while the reserve bill passed with Republican votes. The former clears tax frictions for institutional entry, and the latter turns the government’s BTC holdings from "potential sellers" into "locked non-circulating supply." Both bills still need to pass the full House and Senate. Polymarket gives only a 6% chance of the reserve bill becoming law before 2027. But direction matters more than probability—the House is using a "multi-point breakthrough" strategy to bypass Senate deadlock, and the rules are moving forward. $CORE previously climbed from around $0.02 toward the $0.20 area. A planned rebuy near $0.19 was missed because the limit order was never placed. Last night, price slipped to roughly $0.176 before bouncing. Instead of chasing the rebound, the trader is now watching the $0.168–$0.170 zone. The idea is simple: if the first support gives way, another liquidity sweep could follow before buyers step back in. Whether this works depends heavily on volume and whether bids actually rebuild around that arThe early morning rate hike decision can be described as a "sit-up, expectations landing, followed by a hawkish bias".
Reviewing last night's rate decision based on the intraday chart and corresponding time points:
- 2:00 AM announced a 25bp rate hike
- 2:30-3:00 AM Powell's speech began a back-and-forth tug-of-war:
1. The dot plot hinted at only one more rate hike this year
2. Powell clearly stated inflation is "too high and has lasted too long," with summer data showing no improvement in inflation
3. However, Powell then refused to provide forward guidance on the rate hike outlook
4. Immediately after, off-the-record news: White House spokesperson called the Fed's rate hike "quite regrettable"
5. Finally, Powell reiterated that the rate hike demonstrates determination to control inflation
- After hours, Trump made comments saying US rates should be lowered to 1% or below
Thus, it is clear to see from the Nasdaq intraday chart at 2:30 a.m. a rise followed by a steady decline, then a rise again in the late session and after hours. US tech and popular stocks rebounded to varying degrees after hours.
At the same time, polymarket also showed changes in the rate decision probabilities for the end of October, with the probability of a 25bp hike approaching the probability of no hike.
Overall, although the process was bumpy, the end of the rate hike meeting symbolizes the short-term rate hike expectation bearishness landing. Some tech and AI stocks also released positive news after hours, such as $NBIS announcing a significant price increase for Nvidia GPU rentals starting October 1, with the stock rising nearly 7% after hours.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 The worst-case scenario has already played out: the Clarity Act got stuck at 49:50 and failed to advance, and the Fed raised rates by another 25 basis points. According to the script, this should have been a deep squat, but instead of a squat, the market took off directly.
$ZEC set an example—after the negative news landed, it continued to hit ATH; this bull market belongs to ZEC.
On-chain is warming up again: PONS rebounded, STONK rebounded, the crypto-stock Meme line has come back to life; Solana's ZCAT, Robinhood Chain's AI, and BSC's MarsCoin have all started to stop falling and rebound.
The negative news has been fully priced in; the only variables left going forward are positive. I keep repeating one judgment: the SEC and CFTC will compete to introduce policies to fill the gap left by the Clarity Act's failure.
So what we need to do now is very simple: hold onto your chips and watch the chain more. Innovation will only happen on-chain—whether it's crypto-stock Meme or the upcoming various Agent narratives, the chain is the only big opportunity.$BTC is leading. But that alone is not confirmation for the broader market.
$BTC still controls liquidity, while $ETH is the test of whether capital is actually broadening or simply staying concentrated in Bitcoin.
◆ BTC holds + ETH catches up → ↗ Broader participation
◆ BTC holds + ETH lags → → Rotation remains narrow
Don’t confuse a BTC rally with a broad market rally.
The key isn’t who leads — it’s who starts confirming. Opened the BNB Dual Vault on @TermMaxFi tonight and definitely felt that little squeeze. $TMX already took its ugly move today, while Season 1 continues to reward genuine activity.
On most platforms, lending means earning from utilization. Here, the yield comes from call and put buyers paying the premium upfront.
You deposit into the vault, let the strategy run, and know the expected yield before the window ends.
That structure works because Alpha settles more like a note.
#DailyOrbit The market got the 25 bps increase it had been preparing for, yet the reaction was far less dramatic than many expected. $BTC is holding around $75K–$76K. $ETH is hovering near $2.4K. $ZEC remains remarkably strong and continues to command attention. The important part isn't that the Fed delivered a hawkish move — it's that the market absorbed it without an immediate capitulation. When everyone knows the bad news is coming, traders often position for it long before the actual event. Once the heaWAY Risk Control｜Don't short ZEC! Don't short ZEC! At least don't rush to short it now.
ZEC is currently the most dangerous, not just because it’s rising fast, but because more and more people want to short at the top.
The current price is about $1,365, with a 24-hour high close to $1,399; meanwhile, open interest (OI) has increased by about 35%, and the funding rate has dropped to around −0.0419%. This indicates the market is accumulating short positions, and shorts are still paying funding fees.
A negative funding rate doesn’t necessarily mean ZEC will keep rising, but when the price isn’t pushed down and OI keeps increasing, these contrarian shorts could become fuel for the next upward move. Once it breaks above $1,400, short stop losses and forced liquidations will create forced buying, potentially accelerating the rally further.
So my warning is simple:
⚠️ Don’t short just because it has "risen a lot"
⚠️ Don’t heavily short at the top when the negative funding rate is widening
⚠️ Don’t use high leverage waiting for the market to prove you right
A more reasonable approach is to wait for the price to break below $1,300 while OI still increases, then confirm whether shorts truly take control; otherwise, the current pullback might just be a consolidation before another short squeeze.
I’d rather miss the short than stand in front of a short squeeze rally.
Do you think ZEC will break above $1,400 first, or return to $1,300 to consolidate?
The above is my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#ZEC #fundingrate #shortsqueeze #WAYRiskControl #OKX$ONE long-term bottom near 0.000586, with a short-term violent surge, 24h increase +53%, typical sudden pump of an altcoin. Highest point 0.0010140, current price around 0.000968, after the spike entering high-level consolidation.
4 hours: MACD just turned upward, moving averages bullish, strong in the larger timeframe, but this is a one-time sharp rally without sufficient pullback.
30 minutes: spike followed by a drop, MACD red bars shrinking, short-term bullish momentum weakening.
5 minutes: bearish divergence appeared, MACD downward, price still sideways at a high level, a dangerous signal, a quick pullback can happen anytime.
1 minute: narrow oscillation, bulls and bears battling at high levels, market volatility will be very intense, high probability of spikes.
Strong resistance above: 0.001014 (this high point), failure to break means a short-term double top.
First support: 0.000920, breaking below this level means short-term bulls exit, quickly retesting around 0.00084.
Strong support: 0.00076.
Direction judgment
Long: chasing highs, very low cost-performance.
Short: betting on spike and drop, but extremely risky. Such strong pumped altcoins can suddenly pump again to wipe out all short stop losses above. Only suitable for small position shorting, absolutely no heavy positions.
Short entry range: 0.000990~0.001010 (near previous high) Stop loss: 0.001030 (exit immediately if new high breaks to avoid liquidation from a second pump) BTC is stuck at 76,000 and hesitant to move, while ETH got "slapped" at 2,500 — what is today's market waiting for?
BTC is at 76,014, down 0.11% in 24 hours. ETH is at 2,420, just climbed back from 2,368. It looks calm on the surface, but there are strong undercurrents.
First, BTC. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, and the bill got stuck in the Senate, delivering a "double hit" from macro and regulatory fronts. Interestingly, futures traders are adding to long positions on dips, and perpetual contract funding rates remain positive. On one side, spot buyers hesitate, with Coinbase discounts widening to the deepest in half a month; on the other, leveraged funds are betting on a rebound. 75,706 is the Bollinger Band middle line, the key battleground today. Holding above it means potential for upward oscillation; breaking below points to 73,500 as the next target.
Now, ETH. The 2,500-dollar wall has been hit more than once. Every time it tries to break through, it gets slapped back to 2,400. But on-chain data is interesting — an address withdrew 4,827 ETH from Coinbase, and BitMine's ETH treasury holdings have reached 5.96 million ETH. Whales are quietly accumulating, while retail investors chase highs and get trapped.
BTC is watching if 75,706 can hold; ETH is watching if 2,360 can support.
$BTC
$ETH
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 Bounced 1000 dollars and already calling it the bottom? I'm still short 😏
This morning BTC dropped to a low of 74,800, sliding down from 80,000 with a steady decline, finally seeing a decent rebound, now back to 75,800. But a word of caution: a rebound is a rebound, a reversal is a reversal—two different things.
I'm still bearish, for two reasons:
First, it tried several times to break above 80,000 but got pushed back each time; to really hold above, it needs some solid positive news to feed it;
Second, the macro environment hasn't eased at all—oil prices are still above 100 fueling inflation 🛢️, the 10-year US Treasury yield is near 5%, the dollar is as strong as a brick, and the 25 basis points rate hike expectation is already priced in at 90%. On top of that, the CLARITY Act is stuck, and crypto is burdened with an extra layer of regulatory risk.
So my view remains unchanged: short-term rebounds are fine, but until the macro situation eases and 80,000 is firmly reclaimed, I treat this as a pause on the way down, with more downside to find support later.
Bottom hunters and shorts, which side are you on? Show your cards in the comments 👇
#BTC #FederalReserve #MarketAnalysisThe most dangerous situation on the chessboard is not the opponent's check, but when everyone thinks you are about to sacrifice a piece and concede, while you have already calculated the counterattack on the seventeenth move. $JITOSOL is exactly such a trap now.
It has only risen 1.97% in 24 hours, seemingly calm on the surface, like a closed Sicilian Defense opening where both sides are accumulating pieces. But the short-term RSI has already reached 66.4, while the long-term RSI is only at 50.4—two timeframes' chess clocks are out of sync, a typical midgame disconnection. The price is currently at 87% of the Bollinger Bands' short-term range, just 0.2% from the upper band and 1.4% buffer from the lower band. In other words, the white rook has pressed near the black baseline, while black's kingside has not yet completed castling.
The signal is to sell. I agree, but not out of panic—because of the structure.
A true master does not close positions amid the fiercest fire but makes the move when the opponent's attack shows a flaw. The key resistance at $98.38 is the current price plus 1.4%, the last attempt for bulls to break through. If the price cannot hold there, the midgame initiative will completely switch hands, leading to liquidation, clearing, and entering the endgame.
My plan is as follows:
📉 Short:
Entry: 98.38 (current price +1.4%)
Take Profit 1: 94.55 (-2.5%)
Take Profit 2: 94.03 (-3.1%)
Stop Loss: 108.25 (+11.6%)
This position's risk-reward ratio is textbook level. The stop loss is set beyond +11.6%, giving the black king enough room to escape; the two take profit targets lock in -2.5% and -3.1% gains respectively. Yes, you read that right—the stop loss distance is nearly four times the take profit. This is not aggressive; this is strategy. A true grandmaster never chases flashy single moves but aims to trap the opponent in an inescapable endgame by the seventieth move.
The Bollinger Bands' mid-term position is at 51%, with the price 3.2% above the lower band and 2.9% below the upper band. Near the middle band is the fiercest battleground where bulls and bears exchange pieces. But the short-term 87% position exposes the bulls' weakness—they have pushed their strongest pieces forward without follow-up support. This is the prelude to a sacrifice tactic.
Fear and greed indices only tell you the crowd's sentiment, and sentiment is never the deciding factor in the game. You think you are watching the market, but actually, the market is watching you. #strategyplaybook#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
Two bombs have already exploded, but the direction of the blast is somewhat different from expectations.
BTC had already fallen in anticipation before the vote, once dipping below $75,000 intraday, with a daily drop exceeding 4%. After the news landed, it stabilized and rebounded to around $76,000, with a weekly cumulative decline still close to 4%. ETH hit a low of $2,358 before rebounding above water; an address withdrew 4,827 ETH from Coinbase near $2,400.
With two variables landing simultaneously, the market was not ignited in one go; instead, it showed a "bearish exhaustion" dullness. But there was structural movement: ZEC hit a high of $1,388 at dawn, with a 24-hour increase of 21%. A large whale entity started shorting ZEC from $400, increasing the position to $1,252, holding 37,000 coins, with an unrealized loss of $25.85 million.
On the rate hike front, Waller’s wording left no room. The dot plot shows most members expect one more hike this year, and the expectation of inflation returning to 2% has been pushed back to 2029. CITIC Securities’ judgment is another 25bp hike this year, possibly no change next year, and it advises to "seek assets supported by fundamentals rather than just benefiting from liquidity."
The bill no longer provides an anchor, the rate hike brought volatility but the direction is downward. For the rest of this week, the focus is not on macro but on the willingness of funds to attack local targets. If ZEC’s pattern spreads to a second or third altcoin, that would be a real signal $BTC $ETH $ZEC #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 The Fed finally moved again, raising rates by 25bps to 3.75%–4.00% after five straight holds 🏛️
What caught my attention wasn’t the hike itself, but the dot plot: 16 of 18 officials now expect at least one more increase before the end of 2026. That makes this feel less like a one-off adjustment and more like the possible start of another tightening phase.
The market reaction was telling. The Dow dropped over 600 points, while the Nasdaq stayed nearly flat. With the 10-year yield above 5%, expensive assets still have a difficult backdrop 📉
There’s also a clear gap between the Fed and the White House, which continues to push for lower rates. To me, the next inflation reports matter more than the political noise. Will they reinforce the Fed’s stance—or make this hike look overly cautious?$CASHCAT trading volume has increased somewhat but has not yet returned to the volume level seen at the start of the decline, indicating that bottom-fishing funds are entering tentatively and a consensus has not yet formed;
• The MACD green bars continue to narrow, DIFF shows signs of turning, signaling short-term stabilization, but DIFF and DEA are still below the zero line, so the medium-term trend has not reversed;
• The price has just risen above EMA10 (0.1804), but EMA20 above has not yet formed; 0.1935 is today's high and also a short-term resistance level.
Additionally, there is a noteworthy point in the news: well-known trader Loracle recently reduced his 3x leveraged CASHCAT short position — an active retreat by shorts is often one of the catalysts for a short-term rebound.
However, be clear: the downtrend from 0.317 to 0.142 cannot be reversed by a single bullish candle. This move looks more like a corrective rebound after overselling, with many trapped positions in the 0.19-0.20 range above, so chasing highs remains very risky. Short-term trading can aim for a rebound, but medium-term observation is needed to see if it can hold above 0.19 and continue to increase volume. The structural verification hasn't been completed, so no one dares to sign off. $INJ The current blueprint shows the load-bearing system undergoing a heavy stress test.
A 5.93% drop in 24 hours, current price $4.92 — this is not an ordinary pullback; it's the main beam shaking. But what really made me stop writing isn't the drop, it's the Bollinger Bands reading — the short-term price has already reached the 13% position, with only 0.8% margin left to the lower band; the mid-term is even more extreme, with the price at the 2% percentile, just 0.2% away from the lower band. What does this mean? It means the structural component has been compressed to its elastic limit; going further down would reach the contact surface between the foundation and bedrock, which usually doesn't break through directly but rebounds first.
Looking at the RSI: short-term is 32.2, not yet at my defined extreme oversold red line, but already in the critical zone where the load-bearing wall is under shear stress; long-term is 49.7, neutral to weak, indicating the main framework hasn't collapsed, only local slabs are bending. This combination, in projects I've reviewed, is a typical "repairable node" — not a rupture, but requiring temporary support and re-verification.
So my operational plan is clear:
📈 Long:
Entry: 4.76 (3.3% below current price)
Take Profit 1: 5.31 (+8.0%)
Take Profit 2: 5.42 (+10.2%)
Stop Loss: 4.19 (-14.8%)
Why place entry 3.3% below the current price? Because I want to wait for the final settlement to complete. The 0.2% Bollinger lower band margin is not a signal to chase but to place a limit order. Once this position hits the short-term RSI 1H < 38 signal zone, it's the moment the pile foundation hammer drops.
Take Profit 1 is set at +8.0%, corresponding to the resistance of the first horizontal shear wall; Take Profit 2 at +10.2%, the completion surface of the upper frame node. Stop Loss at 4.19, -14.8%, is the absolute bottom line of the foundation bearing layer — if this level is decisively broken, it means I overestimated the load capacity of this site and must withdraw entirely, leaving no formwork behind.
The risk-reward ratio is close to 1:0.54 to 1:0.69, which doesn't look impressive, but grabbing a rebound in a structural downtrend and achieving this ratio is the result of precise calculation. The only reason I dare to draw this line is that the long-term RSI hasn't fallen far below the 50 midline, indicating no signs of main structure instability; this is just a local stress.
I've seen countless project blueprints; what really determines whether a building can stand is never how flashy the facade is, but the foundation depth and reinforcement ratio. $INJ is now like a column compressed to its limit, testing its ductility, not its strength.
I won't sign off before the settlement is complete. #coinmovealert$SOL these two days should be seen as "post-rate decision digestion," with the price hovering around ninety-eight to ninety-nine. Before the rate decision, it dropped from one hundred two to ninety-five, ninety-six, then slightly bounced back after the rate hike was confirmed. The psychological line at one hundred is temporarily lost; the market is still adapting to the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years, and the dot plot suggests there might be another hike.
In the next two days (Thursday to Friday), it will most likely follow Bitcoin. The rate hike itself has long been priced in; what really pressures altcoins is the expectation of "further tightening" ahead. It's normal to see fluctuations between ninety-six and one hundred one. Holding ninety-six could allow a rebound to one hundred before the weekend to test sentiment; if the market softens again, ninety-four and ninety-three will be tested. If trading volume doesn't increase, the rebound is mostly short covering, not a new trend.
On-chain upgrades and mid-term stories like October's Alpenglow are still there, but these days they can't overshadow macro factors. Don't chase high positions; the trapped positions above one hundred are still present 一、道氏理论（Dow Theory） 下降趋势中的强次级反弹： 道氏中期结构（LH：82,272→80,538→79,568；LL：74,931）仍属下降趋势，但9月16日以来的次级反弹表现出罕见的韧性：低点 75,006（高于74,931）→ 高点 76,463 → 回撤低点75,579（更高低点）→ 当前再创反弹新高 76,586。"低点持续抬高"的反弹结构正在形成，且反弹幅度已收复最后一轮下跌（77,270→74,931，-2,339）的 70.7%——按道氏标准，次级反弹收复前一段跌幅的2/3以上，即对下降趋势的持续性提出严重质疑。 结构解读： 价格已重返道氏上升趋势线（8-14低点连线延伸位约76,800附近正在测试）与VA下沿76,350重合的决战带76,350-76,800。道氏理论的观察点：若反弹站上77,270（9-15反弹高点），则本次"下降趋势"将被降级为一次深回调；若76,350再度失守，则确认下降趋势延续。 道氏结论： 下降趋势尚未被破坏，但已松动。76,350-76,600为多空胜负手：站稳则进入"反弹挑战前高"模式（目标77,300+），失守则回归空头主导[Morning Watch] ARMA/SBR Committee advances 28–21, dual-track regulation
Fact: House Financial Services Committee advances H.R.8957 (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) 28–21; CLARITY still stuck on a narrow vote, Poly Yes≈6.8%. Macro just raised interest rates; BTC around 76,700.
Judgment: Committee approval ≠ becoming law. Don't conflate the reserve narrative and CLARITY's failure as the same negative factor, nor cash out prematurely.
Vote: Propose valuation floor / Only counts if becomes law / Regulation secondary to rate hikesThe Fed delivered the expected 25bp hike, but the real headline was the dot plot.
12 of 18 Fed officials now see at least one more hike this year, while 4 are projecting two additional hikes.
For the last couple of years, the debate was mostly about when cuts would begin—not whether rates were ultimately heading lower.
Now the conversation has changed. Another hike is back on the table, with rates potentially staying above 4% for longer.
That’s a meaningful shift.
#DailyOrbit #贝森特听证释放多重信号
The Basset hearing sends signals of a "strong growth narrative, but debt stabilization measures still need numbers." On September 15, he told the House of Representatives that the G20 had reached a consensus covering economies accounting for more than two-thirds of global GDP on improving sovereign debt frameworks and regulatory modernization, citing the Atlanta Fed's estimate that third-quarter growth could exceed 4%; however, the public written testimony did not propose new scales for U.S. debt issuance or buybacks. On the same day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield was 5.00%, higher than 4.97% on September 14. This indicates that policy statements have not yet lowered long-term funding costs, and growth stock valuations may still be under pressure. Subsequent observations will focus on quarterly refinancing explanations, auction demand, and whether the 10-year yield can fall back.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.Today's market, to say it's ugly would be an exaggeration, but there hasn't been a runaway crash; to say it's strong, Bitcoin is tugging back and forth around $76,000, and Ethereum still can't firmly hold $2,500. The truest state of the market is not panic, but "everyone is waiting."
Bitcoin has fallen from around $78,300 to $76,100 in the past 7 days, a drop of about 2.83%; Ethereum fell about 2.29% in the same period, with its price back near $2,418. The magnitude doesn't look big, but the trading experience isn't good: rallies don't continue, pullbacks aren't thorough enough, chasing the rise risks getting trapped, and shorting can be hit by sudden rebounds at any time.
The key behind this is still macro expectations. Inflation, interest rates, and dollar liquidity have once again become market focal points. As long as funds cannot confirm that the monetary environment will turn accommodative, Bitcoin will find it hard to break out of its trend; Ethereum is more elastic and more sensitive to liquidity, so once the market starts to seek safety, ETH usually experiences more violent fluctuations than BTC.
However, one thing worth noting: this is not a comfortable position for a one-sided bearish view. BTC's low in the past 7 days was around $75,400 and is still above that low; although ETH once surged to around $2,627, it has temporarily held around $2,388 after pulling back. In other words, neither bulls nor bears have completely won.
The real big opportunities often don't appear when everyone is excited, but when everyone has been worn down by volatility and lost patience. Next, don't just focus on a single bullish candle—whether $BTC can reclaim $78,000 and whether $ETH can stand back above $2,500.Stablecoins used to compete on one metric:
Who can build the biggest supply?
That game is evolving.
Because a dollar sitting unused is just dormant liquidity.
The bigger advantage is becoming:
> Which chains support you
> Which apps integrate you
> Where users can borrow against you
> Where you can be spent
> Who controls the distribution
USDT + USDC still lead in overall supply.
But newer challengers are fighting on different fronts:
> Yield
> DeFi collateral.
#DailyOrbit Interest rates have risen, but the coins haven't dropped.
BTC 76,127, 24h +0.62%; ETH 2,414, +0.50%. This is not a case of bad news being fully priced in; the market is temporarily indifferent to the interest rate issue.
The real information lies in the gap: In the Fed's dot plot, 16 officials expect at least one more rate hike by 2026, with the median stopping at 4.1%; traders are betting on three more hikes next year. The Fed says "about one more," the market says "you have to hike three times." A two-hike expectation gap is not a minor disagreement.
Waller made it clear: the economy is strong, employment is resilient, inflation is high and persistent, and 2% is not yet assured. So there are two possible outcomes: either the market is right, and the current ease in risk assets is wrong; or the market is overestimating, and interest rate expectations will undergo a reversal. Crypto is currently holding steady at 76,000, just waiting to see which side will concede first. 7u Challenge to 100 million!
Day 27
Principal 7u, target 100 million
Currently: 3550u
Survival cost: 1550u
Available funds: 2000u+
I didn't expect it to have already been 27 days of challenge. I have a strong feeling that in the next two days, my total available funds will break through ten thousand US dollars.
Currently, my overall strategy for earning principal remains unchanged: create content, trade contracts, and push memes.
Strategically, I use a barbell strategy. On one side are mainstream top assets, on the other side pure memes.
In contracts, I hold long positions in Bitcoin $BTC and $PONS, and spot holdings in $BNB.
Why do I hold Bitcoin? Because it is the banner and benchmark of the entire market. Only by watching it can you grasp the overall market rhythm.
Then there's PONS, which I believe is the biggest dark horse in this bull market. Currently, the buyback and burn ratio has exceeded 31%, and protocol fees have been in the top three for several consecutive days. The biggest highlight now is whether it will launch its own swap.
Finally, I haven't pushed memes much in the past week. After intense chain sweeping earlier, my eyes were uncomfortable for a week. Now it's almost better.