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Pre-Nonfarm Deleveraging: BTC Slightly Stronger, ZEC New Positions Still Holding the Drop
Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate will be announced tonight at 20:30. Deleverage before the data.
BTC is at 84,802, up 1.58%, perpetual positions increased by 4.3%, price and positions rising in sync, short-term bulls still dominant. ZEC is at 1,341, down 5.94%, positions increased by 5.1%, new positions have not stopped selling pressure; 24-hour ZEC long liquidations about $17.25 million, clear risk of high-level pullback. HYPE is at 87.85, down 2.83%, positions decreased by 4.8%, funds are retreating.
OKX smart money sample is small, only for sentiment reference: BTC shorts account for 84.5%, but sample dropped to 14 people, positions reduced by about $1.01 million; ZEC longs and shorts each 4 people, positions reduced by about $780,000; HYPE only 3 people, longs account for 92.8%, weak signal.
Main opportunities still focus on BTC:
- 1-hour close above 85,250 and pullback not breaking, light long trial, stop loss 84,600, target 86,550.
- If close breaks below 84,400, rebound to try short, stop loss 85,050, target 83,100.
- Observe HYPE at 86.40, ZEC at 1,330, consider short if break below and fail to recover.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $ETH is slightly bullish in the short term. It rose 1.76% in 24h, mainly driven by short sellers being forced to cover: short liquidations totaled $17.86 million, three times that of longs. In other words, this rally is not due to new leverage entering, but because bearish positions were squeezed out, easing the resistance above. The options side is also bullish: the put/call volume ratio is only 0.40, clearly favoring calls; DVOL at 49.8 is not high, indicating the market is not pricing in a sharp drop. The fee rate has been slightly positive, which can only be considered background and not a reason. The descending trendline on the chart still presses from above, but it is drawn from previous highs, reflecting the structure before the shorts were cleared. The shorts that were squeezed out this time were exactly those, so the pressure from this line has diminished. Moving averages are in a bullish alignment, supporting the price to push higher; only by holding above the previous high can the space be considered open. Bearish reversal condition: a drop below 2,671.1 would indicate the short squeeze was a one-time fuel with no follow-through, invalidating the bullish view. $CT 15min divergence, should be able to short after confirmation, huge new high, divergence, not sure about the final direction, shorted at 0.61 and exited at 0.59, recovered the liquidation from this morning, this $CT is crazy🔥 I’ve been holding this short from $845 for weeks, and after the latest pullback, the position is finally getting closer to break-even. The $760–$780 zone is the next area I’m watching. If sellers keep control, a deeper move toward $720 could come next. If ZEC reclaims $800+, the short thesis starts looking weaker. One lesson from this trade: patience matters, but risk management matters more. Short squad, stay disciplined. $ZEC $BTC $ETH #ZEC #Crypto #DailyOrbitSlowMist reported that the Safe module used in Aave v3's "loop strategy" was attacked:
The attacker exploited an open()/close() access control vulnerability in the third-party adapter FlashLoopAdapter, forged Safe authentication, and arbitrarily executed modules, stealing about 114.09 ETH (approximately $310,000) from two multisig addresses, and repaid about 1300 WETH debt to unlock collateral.
Aave founder Kulechov responded that the involved module is a third-party external adapter built on top of v3, and the Aave v3 contracts themselves were not affected.
This serves as a reminder that the attack-defense boundary in DeFi is shifting from the core protocol to layers of stacked third-party components.#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat Market turns warmer. BTC strengthened with increased volume during the day, current price 85,960, 24h +2.2%, intraday high touched 86,794, stepping firmly on the 85,000 ceiling that had been pressing for a week; ETH follows with slower gains, currently at 2,728 (+0.3%).
The driver is macro easing: WTI crude oil fell 2% to 90.95, geopolitical premium receded, shorts were rapidly forced to cover and buy, a stark contrast to last week's panic market.
Key levels
- BTC: resistance at 86,800, 87,000, 87,400 (September high concentration zone); support at 85,000 (break and retest level), 84,000.
- ETH: resistance at 2,739, 2,786, 2,800; support at 2,700, 2,670. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $AAVE
The leading lending platform surged 11% today, with a trading volume of 335 million, showing real momentum.
Contract open interest simultaneously increased by 23.6%, and funds are still flowing in as the price rises, igniting short-term sentiment.
Everyone, don't rush to chase this move; wait for a pullback that doesn't break the previous high before considering entry.
$AAVE Lloyds Bank and Visa completed a 7-day live pilot, settling $750,000 in payment obligations using stablecoins:
USDC was purchased through the UK licensed exchange Archax, recorded and transferred by Lloyds Jersey's corporate markets division to Visa in the US, with funds arriving in under an hour, including on weekends.
This is the first stablecoin settlement trial between Visa and a major UK banking group.
Note that the settlement was for debts between financial institutions, not customer payments—stablecoins are running for the first time as an "interbank settlement rail." Market attention is focused on the heavy US non-farm payroll data tonight. The September unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by only 90,000, far below the previous 162,000. The data expectations are weak, providing support expectations for gold prices.
From the market perspective, gold prices have recently fluctuated and strengthened, with the market preemptively betting on the possibility of weak employment data. If the non-farm payroll increase falls short of expectations and the unemployment rate remains high, it will strengthen market speculation that the Federal Reserve will slow its policy, which is bullish for gold. Technically, prices are steadily rising supported by moving averages, with bullish momentum gradually accumulating, and there is short-term room for further gains.
However, the risk of unexpectedly strong data should still be watched. If employment data significantly exceeds expectations, it will suppress the gold price rebound. In terms of operations, it is advisable to wait for the data release, position based on key support levels, and prioritize a bullish approach. Control position sizes, pay attention to sharp market fluctuations at the moment of data release, and manage risk well. $XAU Core logic of cryptocurrency market trends during the National Day holiday:
1. Domestic traders are on holiday, market liquidity decreases, and even small funds can cause significant price fluctuations, making liquidation scenarios more likely; therefore, high leverage positions should be reduced.
2. The market is mainly influenced by U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasury bonds, and ETF capital flows, so overseas macroeconomic data should be closely monitored.
3. BTC is currently in a high-level oscillation range, with heavy resistance above and key support below temporarily stable; the overall trend has not changed significantly yet. If the key support is broken, a deeper correction may occur.
4. The altcoin sector shows clear differentiation, with new coins and airdrop coins experiencing large market volatility. Trading should focus on mature trading patterns and avoid blindly chasing high-risk, low-quality coins.
During holiday trading, it is better to miss opportunities than to make mistakes.
Let go of the obsession with 100x or 1000x returns; the true trading skill lies in managing risk and securing returns steadily over the long term.
$BTC $ETH $CT
⚠️ The above content does not constitute investment advice; trading carries risks that must be borne by yourself.
#InterestRateHikeExpectationsDelayed #SeptemberNonFarmPayrollsNextKey
#BitcoinETFInflow9DaysInARow #ETHTurnsOutflow
#USTreasuryYieldsHitNewHighs #LongTermRatePressureUnrelieved$XRP's gains lead mainstream coins—is it new demand or short-term rotation?
OKX market data shows $XRP's gains in the past 24 hours outpace BTC and ETH. Relative strength tends to attract follow-up capital, but leading price does not mean payment usage or ecosystem demand have grown in sync.
I will watch if the strength holds after trading cools down; if gains are quickly given back, short-term rotation explains this rise better than fundamental changes.The CFTC is pushing to explicitly include "event contracts" within the definition of "swaps," and has already submitted two related rules to the White House for review.
The intention is straightforward: as long as event contracts are legally considered swaps, the CFTC can assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over regulated prediction markets, blocking states' "gambling" accusations.
Thus, the dispute over prediction markets escalates from "legal or illegal" to "whether you count as a swap"—in this battle, the power to define is itself the power to govern.🔥 NFP × CRYPTO — THE LIQUIDITY TEST
September NFP:+90K expected
August:+162K
That’s a44.4% slowdown.
₿ BTC ETF flows just snapped a9-day, $3.1B inflow streak.
Hot jobs → yields ↑ → BTC pressure
Weak jobs → rate-hike bets ↓ → liquidity hopes ↑
BTC is sitting at the macro crossroads.
👀NFP decides the first big move.Brent moving back above $100 is less a verdict on lost supply than a repricing of fragility. With no breakthrough on ceasefire, sanctions, or Hormuz, tight fuel markets leave little room for a prolonged disruption.
The added Patriot deployments may contain risk at the margin, but oil will likely stay sensitive to diplomatic signals until the corridor question is clearer.
#USIranOilTensions Market tug-of-war between bulls and bears: institutions are adding positions while large holders are cashing out
BTC liquidations reached $136 million in the past 24 hours
A total of 7,685 accounts were liquidated
This shows significant volatility in the short-term contract market
Many leveraged positions were wiped out by market moves
Capital flows show clear divergence
On October 1, spot ETFs for $BTC and $XRP saw net inflows
BTC net inflow was $102.67 million, XRP inflow was $4.07 million
But spot ETFs for $ETH and $SOL experienced outflows
ETH net outflow was $55.37 million, SOL net outflow was $5.91 million
Institutional funds are starting to selectively position
No longer entering the market blindly across the board
Another noteworthy data point
BTC realized profits of 25,700 coins in a single day earlier
Setting a new high for daily profit-taking this year
Short-term unrealized profit rate rose to 33%
Spot demand has clearly contracted over the past month
Futures speculative volume has also dropped significantly
Indicating many large holders are gradually taking profits
The market now is a typical divergence scenario
Long-term institutions continue accumulating BTC chips
But earlier profit-takers are choosing to exit
Combined with ongoing contract liquidations digesting leverage
Bulls and bears are battling back and forth
Market volatility will persist for some time
Capital has begun rotating across sectors
Mainstream coins will gradually diverge in performance
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ZEC privacy coin has gone absolutely wild today. It climbed from the June low of 452 all the way up to near the historical high above 3000, then gave back some gains. Its counterpart XMR has risen 17.8% in seven days; the privacy duo is exploding together, definitely not just retail investors itching to trade.
Why the surge? Geopolitical black swans are the best catalysts. The US and Iran are clashing in the Strait of Hormuz, with the US naval blockade reducing Iran's September crude oil shipments to zero. As sanctions escalate, everyone is eyeing privacy assets. Zcash holders just approved $8.39 million in retroactive funding, and the community remains intact. It’s climbing from the foothills, with institutions treating it as a sanctions hedge.
But don’t get too optimistic. ZEC dropped 8% in one day; after doubling in ninety days, the correction has only just begun, with the ATH 3191 looming overhead. Privacy coins carry policy risk like a sword hanging by a thread—if a major power truly bans them, liquidity evaporates overnight. Also, this rally is clearly event-driven; once the event cools off, it’s free fall.
Keep an eye on the Strait of Hormuz situation and Iran sanctions progress—these are ZEC’s lifeline.
ZEC is hard currency in chaotic times, but when the chaos ends, it will be the first to be dumped. Trade the swings, don’t treat it as faith. ⚡ BTC × ETH ETF FLOW — CAPITAL COOLING?
BTC’s 9-day, ~$3.1B inflow streak just broke.
Latest session:
₿ BTC ETF: +$102.7M
Ξ ETH ETF: -$55.4M
The heat is cooling, but the leader has something to say.
BTC is still attracting fresh capital while ETH sees withdrawals.
If BTC keeps absorbing money, can the market rotate back into alts? 👀Bitcoin is quite strong today, almost touching $87,000,
But beyond the surface-level candlestick frenzy, the essence of this rally is actually the resonance of three core logics:
1. Macro recovery: U.S. Treasury yields have significantly declined, greatly easing external liquidity pressure;
2. Short squeeze effect: Shorts in the 84k-85k range faced intense liquidation, with over $120 million in short liquidations in 24 hours, which is 10 times the size of long liquidations. Bulls are leveragi 😈 After the recent pump, profit-taking is starting to appear, and retail traders are leaning toward the short side. I’m holding for now and watching the reaction. 📊 Key levels: The $0.52–$0.55 zone is now acting as short-term resistance. A rejection there could bring another pullback, while a clean breakout could invalidate the short setup. 🐋 Positioning update: Retail traders remain cautious and slightly short-biased. Whale positioning is much more balanced, suggesting no clear directional The market is all shouting long, and when the sentiment is high, there are always some rushing to short! Now it's good, within a few hours, $90 million worth of shorts in Bitcoin contracts have been liquidated. Were you among them?
This morning, I also saw a large number of shorts pending liquidation between 85,600 and 86,500 on the liquidation map. (Figure 1)
As a result, the price quickly rose just now, wiping out more than half of the short positions, but right after the liquidation, a large number of shorts quickly filled the gap again. (Figure 2)
Actually, I’m quite nervous for the shorts because the price pullback is very likely a cover for high-leverage shorts. If you enter at this time, you might very well become the fuel for the main force to break through 87,000!
Moreover, judging by the fast pace of covering now, the main force is very likely to launch another upward attack, liquidate shorts, and then pull back again.
I combined multiple indicators and also verified this point.
Currently, the price has fallen from 86,888 to around 86,000, with buying power appearing to push the price to this level of fluctuation. I calculated that if you open a short position here with too high leverage, the liquidation price would be just around 86,888, which was the level that just failed to break through.
So, if the price consolidates here without further decline! Brothers, don’t say I didn’t warn you! If you short now, there’s a very high probability you’ll become the stepping stone for breaking through 87,000.
Also, the Open Interest (OI) hasn’t dropped significantly.
Here’s the logic: price rises, a large number of shorts get liquidated, but OI doesn’t drop much, and it doesn’t drop much on the pullback either.
This indicates that shorts have not yet exited after entering, and some have even covered.
The RSI has also recovered to a neutral state, reducing the pressure from overbought conditions.
And importantly, various moving averages are still in bullish alignment; the structure is intact.
For now, I’m still on the bullish side.
Another rise, 87,000 is the real test; if it breaks through, the upper space opens up.
If it can’t break through, be careful of a quick pullback, with a downside target of 84,500.
The key now is! Can 86,000 become a new support level?
As long as a new bottom forms here, breaking through 90,000 is also possible.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!"All three coins are pushing upwards together, but the short-term is already overheated, so you need to take some profits first.
$BTC broke through 86,000, just a step away from the previous high of 86,888. The moving averages are in a bullish alignment, MACD momentum is very strong, but the 1-hour RSI is approaching the overbought zone of 66-68, so a wick could appear at any time. Keep holding long positions, reduce a bit on rallies, don’t chase. Resistance is at 87,000, support is around 84,000-85,000.
$ETH has stabilized above 2,700, surpassed the old high at 2,747, showing a healthy pattern. A pullback near 2,700 is an opportunity for light entry, with 2,800 as the next resistance.
$ZEC pulled back from 1,385 to 1,305, but the SAR is still above the price, and MACD hasn’t turned positive, indicating a weak rebound. Avoid heavy positions, support is at 1,300, resistance between 1,400-1,440, focus on selling high and buying low.
The hourly RSI for all three is at a high level; be sure to use stop-loss and take-profit orders on contracts. Adding positions at highs is the easiest way to get cut, so pocket your profits first.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $SOL hasn't moved much recently, but more people in the community are talking about it, all saying things like "Hold the top three in the big cycle."
I just want to laugh. Those who really hold it were there at 2, were there at 200, and are still there at 120 now—they don't post at all.
At 3 PM, I saw a giant whale's ETH order, 25x full position, over 30,000 coins, with the liquidation price right at 2550. I stared at those numbers for a long time—this isn't called a position, it's like handing over your lifeline. If their account shakes, I lose a year's salary.
Coins like SOL are just good as a reference point; don't watch them obsessively every day. If you really want to learn something, learn from those who quietly hold without saying a word, not from those who show off their daily returns. I'll say it here, and someone in the comments will jump out again shouting that SOL is going to break 300. $SOL Prices surged rapidly during the midday session, once breaking through the 2720 level and reaching around 2747, entering the previously repeatedly tested high-level resistance cluster (roughly between 2716 and 2756).
Tonight, the US non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and the market is in a highly sensitive state before that. The data results will directly dictate the next phase of the trend.
Two operational paths to consider:
Path one: Lightly attempt short positions at high levels, with a stop loss set at 2756. The current high remains probing within the resistance zone, with no signs of a solid close above it yet, so the probability of a pullback is relatively higher. If the price continues to rise and triggers the stop loss, it means the resistance has been truly broken, and the original short logic immediately fails, allowing a shift to trend-following long positions. If it encounters resistance and falls back, focus on the re-pricing near the lower boundary of the consolidation range.
Path two: Completely abandon pre-data speculation, wait for the non-farm payroll release and a clear market direction before taking action, to avoid stop-loss risks caused by sudden sharp fluctuations.
Structural reference points: The short-term consolidation box lower boundary is roughly between 2580–2600, with a more critical wave watershed near 2536 corresponding to Gann 2×1. If the non-farm data triggers a quick dip followed by a swift stabilization, low-level buying can be considered; if 2580 is effectively broken, then the bottom-fishing idea should be completely abandoned.#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
$BTC $ETH $ZEC A brief chat about $PUMP and $LIT
I've called out both of these coins in the community. The earliest call for PUMP was on July 12, at a price of about 0.0014, and it has since gained over 3x; LIT was first called at around 2.5, and it has basically doubled now. If you trust me, you can search for PUMP or LIT using the magnifying glass at the top right of the plaza to check historical posts.
PUMP: Its resilience is indeed strong. Despite competition from the Robinhood ecosystem and Stonk diversion, it has maintained its leading position and keeps hitting new highs. The Meme sector won't disappear; it's just highly cyclical. After each wave of hype fades, Pump remains a stable "traffic business" on-chain, so it still serves as a mid-to-long-term holding.
LIT: RH users use their own Perp, which does affect short-term sentiment, but the market might be overreacting. LIT has real operational data and does not rely entirely on RH US users. Perp Dex regulation is also not fully clear yet, so it's not surprising that RH hasn't integrated Lighter.
In the short term, LIT is somewhat oversold and may see a rebound. Long term, it depends on how much real trading volume remains after subsidy reductions. Comparing operational data directly with HYPE now might overestimate user stickiness.
PUMP is simpler: Meme is cycling again, and the business of issuing tokens and collecting fees is still going on 🤦A certain whale/institution liquidated their long-term DeFi token investments, accumulating a loss of $9.61 million: 10 days ago, they sold 37.26 million CRV held for 3 years, realizing a loss of $5.97 million; 3 hours ago, they transferred 4.01 million PENDLE held for 1 year to OKX, with an unrealized loss of $3.64 million, the two transactions adding up exactly to $9.61 million.
3-year long-term, 1-year long-term, all exited at "cut-loss prices." Is this a loss of faith or forced selling? The patient capital of DeFi blue chips has withdrawn first; who do you think is still willing to take these chips?
$BTC $ETH $CRVThe Strait remains tense, crude oil bulls seize the opportunity to counterattack
On October 1, Brent crude closed at $102.31, up 4.37% for the day; WTI closed at $92.87, up 2.71%. There are three triggers: the Hormuz oil tanker was set on fire by an unidentified flying object, bringing the number of attacked oil tankers this week to three; the US military has deployed a third aircraft carrier strike group and nearly 10,000 troops to the Middle East; Trump hinted that actions against Iran might escalate after the midterm elections.
However, the real concern in the market is the bottleneck on the refining side. JPMorgan pointed out that Middle East crude oil exports have returned to 98% of pre-war levels, but refined products are only at 58%, with short-term shortages in diesel and jet fuel hard to fill. The US diesel price remains high at $6.40 per gallon.
BTC is at 83,821, facing resistance at 85,500 and support at 83,000. Position holders can set stop-loss below 82,500; those without positions should wait for stabilization between 83,000-83,500. With geopolitical and inflationary pressures combined, chasing the rally has an average success rate.
Are you bullish or bearish on this oil price wave? See you in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC Everyone is waiting for a breakout, but I went short on BTC: Come on, market, teach me a lesson
Honestly, I'm scared too.
The trend is so strong, everyone is shouting about breaking 90,000, but I shorted at 86,000.
It's not stubbornness, it's just that this level makes me uncomfortable:
• 86,000 is a round number, emotions are most likely to get carried away;
• Funding rates are hot, longs are too crowded;
• The rally is too smooth, like looking for the last buyer;
• I'm not guessing the top, I'm just testing the short side.
Stop loss is very clear: 87,777, if it breaks, I admit I'm wrong.
Position is light, target first looks at 82,000, if it breaks down, then 78,000.
If wrong, cut losses, no holding on, no stubbornness.
You can call me counter-trend, but trading is not about following the crowd.
When the bulls are partying wildly, someone has to stay calm.
What I short is greed, not BTC.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 It's really a pity not to use leverage after clearly seeing the market trend. Both axti and btc used small leverage and small positions. Neither caught the big gains. As I always say, fast profits come with fast losses. Altcoins and US stocks have at most 8x leverage; other multiples, I think, are just gambling.
Today was pretty good #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#axtiDo you really think $BTC can only go up from here? 🤔
I’m holding a short, even though some people are mocking the position.
I already closed half at 82,800, locking in around 1,500 points, and I’m keeping the rest open.
I still expect a pullback, especially with tonight’s NFP data coming.
I’m simply trading the direction I believe in—let the market decide. 📉#AnthropicEyesNovIPO #USJobsDataToday #BTCETHETFOutflows Brothers, Heaven rewards the diligent. I finally caught a wave.
Even ants are meat, no matter how small. Recently, I've been trapped like a Russian nesting doll, numb from it. Although overall it's still a small loss, it's much better than losing all the time!
Today's strategy:
$BTC The big coin surged directly to 86800 this morning, just a few hundred points shy of breaking the previous high. Those who shorted must be stuck and numb. I think today will still be a volatile market, with a high probability of a spike down to 84500 or around 83300 tonight. So for those wanting to go long, 84500 and 83300 are entry points, stop loss at 82488, take profit near the previous high at 87300.
$ETH As for the second coin, more spot buying has been done relative to funds, but the leader is still the big coin which has been strong these days. The second coin is a few points away from yesterday's target of 2750. If it pulls back tonight, go long at 2670 or 2650, stop loss remains at 2620, take profit at 2780 or 2800.
⚠️ The above is for reference only, investment carries risks.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Exit and merge speeds improve, staking liquidity will be better but still not instant
Glamsterdam plans to increase the churn of validator exits and merges, meaning the scale allowed to be processed per epoch. As the total staked amount grows, the old parameters may cause exits or merging multiple validators into larger balances to take too long; moderately increasing throughput can reduce queuing friction and work with Pectra's upcoming compounding validator balance of up to 2048 ETH. This will not turn staking into an instantly accessible demand deposit; exits are still subject to network queues, finalization, and service provider processes. Users of liquid staking products also face secondary market price, contract, and operator risks. For $ETH, a smoother exit mechanism can reduce participants' concerns about being locked up long-term and improve validator structural adjustments, but raising parameters too quickly could also cause large amounts of funds to exit concentratedly during stress periods. Good liquidity does not mean removing security constraints but reducing unnecessary waiting within the network's tolerable range.
The clearer the exit capability, the more staking products should disclose the real arrival path: whether exits are protocol-driven, covered by pool liquidity, or rely on secondary market takers. The risks of these three methods are not the same. was stuck in traffic and crowded tourist spots, I was busy getting absolutely destroyed by the ZEC candlestick chart and its brutal volatility. While others spent their holiday buying happiness, I spent mine opening 30x leverage positions and questioning every life decision I’ve ever made. Looking back at that chaotic night, ZEC felt less like a chart and more like a roller coaster designed specifically to liquidate my patience. 🕙 22:05 – 22:48: The first trap — bulls get crushed I watched ZE#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Bitcoin has reached 85,000. Can it hold this time?
To be honest, this level is quite interesting.
On-chain data is conflicting. On one side, the short-term holders' cost line has been pushed up to $73,700, and the market price premium has narrowed to about 14%, meaning those who chased the highs before are gradually losing profits. On the other side, whales have accumulated over 40,000 BTC in the past ten days, holding nearly 68% of the total supply. Retail investors are watching, while big players are buying; this structure isn't bad.
There's a signal from smart money: the scale of whales transferring stablecoins to exchanges has increased from 21.7 billion to 30.5 billion in one month, a 40% rise. Money is waiting at the door but hasn't fully entered yet.
Alternative data shows the Fear & Greed Index at 72, in the greed zone but not extreme. The funding rate is about 0.007%, and leverage isn't crazy.
Technically, BTC's current price is around 86,100, up nearly 3% in 24 hours. The psychological resistance is at 90,000 above, and the short-term holders' cost at 73,700 below is a strong support.
My view: Holding above 85,000 is a strong signal, with a chance to push to 90,000, but the premise is that ETF funds don't dry up.XAUT Has Real Gold. Now Price Needs More Proof Now
XAUT represents one fine troy ounce of physical gold.
The backing is real. Supply has grown, reserves are attested, and tokenized-gold demand is expanding.
But price remains below its 2026 ATH near $5,505.
$4,115–$4,140 is the level that matters. Below it, the setup weakens.
First resistance: $4,300–$4,325.
The catalyst is measurable demand: more supply, liquidity and usage.
Watch, not a long. Price needs proof.
$XAUT
#OKXTraderVoices $ETH is rising today, having already broken through the 2700 level.
However, on October 1st, ETH spot ETF net outflows ranged from 14 million to 49 million dollars (depending on the metric), marking two consecutive days of net outflows. The 110 million dollars net inflow accumulated over the past seven days has also been partially eaten away. More disheartening is the technical level: ETH repeatedly tried to break 2800 last week but couldn't hold it. Citi raised its 12-month target price from 2240 to 3028, but the price can't even surpass the 2800 mark, so a higher target is just wishful thinking.
ETH's volume remains weak, and two consecutive days of ETF outflows indicate institutions are cautious rather than bottom-fishing. Coupled with US Treasury yields breaking 5%, and the dollar index hitting 102, all dollar-denominated risk assets are under pressure, with high-beta assets like ETH taking the hardest hit.
After the CPI, whether interest rate expectations will ease and whether ETH can gain volume to hold above 2800 remain to be seen. If it can't break through, don't expect 3000.
It's not that ETH can't rise; it's just not its time to perform yet. Hold on without rushing, but also avoid leverage. Shorted $AAVE, took profit at 145
Their V3 pool crashed. Many veterans used to have sentiment for AAVE, but now AAVE is just a high-quality badass shell, with continuous inflows of 100 million USDC, which is merely equity swapping. The recent pump was just to raise the valuation; the boss has now achieved his goal and sold himself a good price.Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls (September, announced at 20:30 Beijing time)
Market consensus expectations
• New nonfarm jobs: 84,000
• Unemployment rate: 4.1%
• Reference ADP small nonfarm: 90,000, slightly above expectations, indicating relatively strong employment resilience
Three scenario forecasts + impact on $BTC /$ETH
1. Data > 100,000 (employment exceeds expectations, hawkish)
Employment is hot, rate hike expectations rise, USD strengthens.
👉BTC and ETH face downward pressure, likely to quickly retest support levels.
2. Data 70,000~90,000 (meets expectations)
Market has priced in in advance, likely to experience slight fluctuations first, continuing the existing trend with relatively limited volatility.
3. Data < 60,000 (below expectations, dovish)
Employment weakens, rate hike expectations cool down, favorable for risk assets.
👉BTC and ETH likely to surge, testing upper resistance levels. Ethereum quietly surged 70.8% this quarter, the strongest quarter since 2016, with smart money already making moves.
On-chain data is clear: in the past week, BTC whales reduced nearly 30,000 coins, while ETH whales actually added 60,000 coins. One address started accumulating 12,000 ETH at an average price of $2,671 since early September, throwing over $30 million directly into Aave to earn interest—this is not retail behavior.
The US stock crypto sector collectively strengthened last night, with institutions raising BTC price targets. Currently, BTC is above 84,800, ETH around 2,710, and the fear and greed index is 71—greedy but not extreme.
The biggest fear in a slow bull market isn’t a pullback, it’s getting off too early.
$ETH $BTCOrder Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated based on order book, excluding fees
$OMI bidirectional large order cost cannot be fully estimated: 1万USDT equivalent buy/sell slippage is 1.14%/4.22%. The last order book for the 100,000 scale is insufficient on at least one side, and the bidirectional large order cost within the window lacks complete calculation.
$CARDS large buy premium has significantly expanded: 1万 and 100,000 USDT equivalent buy slippage are 1.82% and 27.96%. The last observed depth on the sell side is insufficient, and the entire window cannot fully estimate the large order sell cost.
$SAND large order slippage has significantly increased: 1万 and 100,000 USDT equivalent buy slippage are 0.10% and 0.47%. The cost difference mainly comes from order size, with no obvious asymmetry between buy and sell sides.Bro, today there's a number even more crucial than the K-line: BTC market dominance has dropped below 60%.
Don't worry if you don't get it, let me translate — money is starting to spill out from the big coin. Spill where? To high-elasticity altcoins. Historically, every altcoin season begins with this threshold loosening, no exceptions.
I saw this at noon while holding my instant noodles, almost spilled the soup. The pool of funds is limited, when the gate cracks open, who gets the water first? The one with the biggest name and strongest consensus. Among altcoins, who has a bigger grassroots base than DOGE?
After waiting almost a year, the hinge of altcoin season is already creaking. Others are still doubting if it's an illusion, but I only believe one thing: once the door opens, the dog always charges ahead.
Hold tight, this wind seems to be blowing our way. $DOGE Yesterday, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond once reached 5.34%, the highest level since 2002, while the 30-year Treasury yield even reached about 5.68% at one point. Although both quickly fell back, Ajian believes that if market expectations are further raised as a result, the valuation logic of many assets may need to be readjusted, since US Treasuries are increasingly looking like a fiscal issue rather than a monetary policy issue.
Fortunately, the US stock market remains relatively resilient, which Ajian also analyzed yesterday. This is thanks to Micron's strong earnings report revealing that AI capital expenditure is still providing real profits to tech stocks, supporting the current strange high-interest-rate economic environment in the US, making it one of the few things that can directly counter high interest rates.
This is also why the logic of the AI sector is not exactly the same as ordinary growth stocks, and the same applies to AI-related cryptocurrencies like $NEAR #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Conclusion first: The DeFi sector as a whole didn't move today; the only mover was $AAVE.
Data shows: AAVE is up 11.6% in 24 hours, with its price rising from around 166 to 187.7, now pulling back to about 184. Meanwhile, other major DeFi tokens are mostly flat—UNI only up 2.5%, LINK and CRV are still in the red (down). This is not a sector-wide rally, but a single stock anomaly.
The key signal lies in the funding rate: currently 0.01%, with the premium still negative. To translate: longs haven't paid much, leverage hasn't built up; this is driven by spot buying, not a short squeeze. On the 4H chart, since starting at 166 last night, it has steadily climbed with stable volume, not a spike-and-retract pattern.
Why it moved today, I won't conclude yet. Two possible directions: one, ETH strengthening leads to a catch-up rotation in DeFi blue chips; two, funds moving to lower-risk assets ahead of the weekend. No new news from the Aave protocol side for now; 180 is a key support level—if it breaks, this structure is invalidated.
My personal view: a single coin outperforming the sector + spot-driven + stable volume is currently the healthiest combination. But no one has confirmed resistance above 187 yet. How much pullback space do you think is normal for this trade? $AAVE $ZEC is not just following the rise this time; it’s pushing up on its own. A year ago, it was still at 50, ranked outside the top 80. Now it’s around 1350, with a market cap of 23 billion, having once entered the top ten. It rose 70% in a month, touched 1697 on September 27, a near ten-year high, then pulled back about 20% in the past few days.
Grayscale’s spot ETF only launched at the end of August, and net inflows by September were just 300 million. Compared to the 20 billion increase, that money is not nearly enough; the rest comes from locked tokens in the shield pool plus short covering. Block upgrade NU7 is scheduled, testnet on October 6, mainnet finalization on October 20. The co-founder is still shouting 5000 by year-end, which is more than double from this price—just take it as a slogan.
Holding 1300 means catching a breath at a high level. If it breaks, look at 1100. Don’t chase before 1697 breaks through with volume. The story is still ongoing, but the price has run ahead. Did you catch this wave?Big Brother Maji’s latest positions 👀
Total exposure is around $154M.
$BTC: ~525 BTC at $84,548.6, with ~$338K unrealized profit.
$ETH: ~33K ETH at $2,678.32, with ~$1.48M profit, while funding fees reached ~$1.17M.
$HYPE remains mostly unchanged.
With NFP ahead, Maji is still heavily long. High leverage means volatility could be intense. 📊
Will this long position finally pay off?#USJobsDataToday #BTCETHETFOutflows #NVIDIA150BBuyback Synaptics dropped about 15% after hours to around 122, ON Semiconductor changed the acquisition to $123 cash per share, I won’t chase for now.
Here’s what I saw: yesterday’s close was about 106.15, opened around 101.1, high about 106.6, low about 100.4, up about 4.7% relative to the previous close of about 101.4.
After hours around 122, close to the offer price; ON Semiconductor changed the original roughly $7 billion stock swap to about $5.7 billion all cash, responding to a third-party bid.
The acquirer ON also rose about 7% after hours to around 85.8; the deal is expected to close mid-2027, US FTC approval is done, other jurisdictions are still reviewing.
Simply put: this is an arbitrage trade "switching from equity to cash, total price lowered but certainty increased," not a chip fundamental doubling overnight.
I think short-term don’t chase this after-hours jump close to 123, arbitrage space is already very thin, the bidder hasn’t shown cards, and closing still requires shareholder meeting and other regulatory approvals.
What I’ll do: just watch, don’t chase.
If it breaks below today’s low of about 100.4, expect further decline, or wait for regular trading to firmly hold above about 123 before considering chasing.
Are you waiting for the closing window to narrow to do arbitrage, or do you think the bidder will raise the cash price further?
$SYNA $ON $NVDA
#SeptemberNonFarmPayrolls announced tonight, rate hike expectations are the focus #US-Iran escalation risk rises again, Brent crude returns to $100BTC stopped me dead, but my altcoins are about to double...
There are 5 hours left until tonight's Non-Farm Payroll.
I took a look at my positions, feeling extremely complicated.
My carefully planned short grid for $BTC /$ETH /SOL was completely wiped out today. The BTC grid lost a total of -16.65%, and the funniest part is the price broke through 85,000, and the system popped up "Price out of range, strategy has paused trading."
Oh BTC, you didn't even give me a chance to keep profiting from the grid spreads, you just threw me off the bus directly 😭.
The ETH and SOL grids also suffered unpaired losses that kept expanding.
But!
That short position I casually opened on $RESOLV, with only 1.24U margin, has now earned 1.3U, a return of +94.50%!
It really proves the old saying in the circle: mainstream coins are timid when shorting, altcoins hit hard when shorting.
Altcoins are super tasty, BTC teaches you a lesson.
Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll, if BTC dares to pump it up, my mainstream coin grids won't hold on.
Brothers, which altcoin are you buying? Share some strategies with me!!Facing Iran, Trump may have been using a delaying strategy all along
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
The US-Iran deadlock may affect Iran's crude oil export revenues and even normal domestic production and life.
But for the US, the only negative impact might be inflation.
┈➤ Delaying for more than a year, inflation annual rate may stabilize
Every time oil prices rise, Trump softens his tone and attitude, causing oil prices to fall back. When oil prices fall to a certain threshold, Trump hardens his stance again.
In this way, oil prices will stabilize within a range. After oil prices remain stable within a range for a period, prices of goods will also stabilize within a range.
Continuing until next year, compared to the same period last year, once the division is done, the CPI annual rate and PCE annual rate most likely will no longer rise.
┈➤ Venezuela is expected to increase production
OPEC data shows that Iran's blockade of the strait, like other Chinese countries, has also impacted crude oil production. After Maduro was removed, Venezuela is on a production increase trend.
Before Chavez came to power, Venezuela reached a peak crude oil production of 5 million barrels per day twice, around 1970 and 1997.
Now that the US and Venezuela are cooperating again, after some time of reconstruction, it is highly likely that Venezuela's crude oil production will increase, and with technological progress, even higher production levels may be achieved.
Therefore, looking at a timeline beyond two years, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices, although unlikely to return to pre-war levels, should fall compared to current prices. Ondo Intelligent Portfolios lets investors hold one token representing a portfolio using BlackRock strategies, with auto-rebalancing. ONDO rose over 20%, but I’ll watch AUM & inflows before calling adoption.
Please do your own research carefully before making any transactions (DYOR). $ONDO
#USJobsDataToday
#AnthropicEyesNovIPO U Sister 10.2 Friday $ETH Strategy
ETH is oscillating upward on the hourly chart with solid bottom support,
wait for a pullback to 2710-2718 to stabilize before going long,
stop loss at 2695. First target is the previous high at 2747,
if it breaks through, look to 2765; if support breaks, abandon long positions immediately, avoid chasing at highs.The market is mildly rebounding, but the driving forces behind the three assets are completely different, with capital seeking certainty in specific areas.
$BTC: The upward logic comes from sovereign-level competition. The IMF approved a $139 million allocation to El Salvador, despite the country previously violating the agreement limiting Bitcoin accumulation. This signal is very critical—international financial institutions are compromising and adapting to the reality of sovereign nations holding BTC. Macro pressures remain, but the legitimacy of the underlying asset is being gradually reinforced.
$ETH: Slight increase but overall weak. A small-scale security incident occurred within the ecosystem; a vulnerability in an Aave V3 module caused a loss of about 114 ETH. The amount is not large, but it again exposes the risks of DeFi composability. During the window where upgrade expectations have not yet been realized, such security flaws suppress short-term buying, and the trend can only passively follow the broader market, lacking fuel for an independent upward breakout.
$ZEC: Leading the rise against the trend. The core driver is a public statement by a Variant Fund investment partner that the crypto market bottom may have appeared in July. Institutional-level "bottom confirmation" remarks have given capital the confidence to go long on the privacy sector. As a leader, ZEC has absorbed safe-haven funds in a volatile market thanks to its independent narrative.
BTC is supported by sovereign nation compliance, ETH is suppressed by ecosystem security frictions, and ZEC attracts capital through institutional expectations and privacy narratives. The market lacks systemic momentum, so capital can only engage in guerrilla tactics within structural opportunities. Positions should not be too heavy; wait for a macro breakthrough.