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🌐 Solana banking/stablecoins — Fiserv launched Roughrider Coin on Solana, giving more than 90 North Dakota banks and credit unions a dollar-settlement route. $ETH quickly fell back from the high near 2777.7, with a decline of -1.51%. This indicates very strong short selling pressure in the 2770-2800 range, a typical "rally and fall" pattern. First support: 2647 Strong support: 2626 First resistance: 2700 Strong resistance: 2777-2806. The short-term trend is weak, with rebounds being resisted and falling back, and bearish momentum is releasing. You can wait for the price to slightly rebound near 2700 to confirm resistance before entering a short position. Set stop loss above 2735. The first target is 2647; if broken, look toward around 2626. $BTC price also experienced a sharp pullback after testing the high of 87239, currently fluctuating near 84611. It is worth noting that although the price has slightly declined, net inflow is positive, indicating that funds are still absorbing at the bottom during the decline, providing some buying support below. First support: 83841 Strong support: around 83000 First resistance: 85000 Strong resistance: 87239 - 87385. Currently in a correction and recovery phase after a big rise, with funds flowing in, blind shorting is not advisable. Wait for the price to stabilize in the 83800 - 84000 range before attempting light long positions, with stop loss at 83500 and target at 86000. For reference only #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 10.3 Bitcoin Silk Road ETH initially surged to 2778 but faced heavy resistance and sharply dropped, hitting a low of 2649.27 where it touched the lower Bollinger Band and then stabilized to rebound. The current price is 2681.47, recovering from the low and standing just below the middle Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Bands are contracting after expansion, indicating a corrective rebound after a major drop. Resistance above is at 2716 and previous high at 2778; key support below is at 2649. $ETH #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Entry range: 2670–2678, enter again after a pullback stabilizes and the candlestick shows a stop in the decline signal Stop loss: below 2645, breaking this round's low point, breaking the rebound structure, exit Take profit: First target: 2716, reduce half the position to lock in some profit Second target: 2750, play the remaining position against the upper resistance$XAU Gold has been quite the "drama queen" this week. On the night of October 2nd's non-farm payroll release, after the data shocked the market, gold prices instantly surged to $4226, then quickly plunged over $100 to $4124, with bulls and bears both wishing each other "take care." Poor folks like you and me, we didn’t sell at the highs, and we keep losing money while having to pay funding fees nonstop. Sigh, the funding fees alone could pay for a hotpot meal. Currently, gold is catching its breath around $4150-$4170. The $4135-$4146 range below acts as a short-term "safety cushion," and $4000 is a strong bottom; above, $4200-$4230 is the main short-term resistance zone. In the medium to long term, central banks’ enthusiasm for buying gold remains strong. Goldman Sachs maintains a $5400 target by the end of 2027; however, HSBC has lowered its expectations, believing that rate hikes and high oil prices will continue to exert short-term pressure. In the short term, watch the aftereffects of the non-farm data; in the mid-term, wait for the wind. The long-term outlook is still bullish, but these funding fees really hurt. $BTC $ETH Bitcoin and Ethereum remain bullish in the long run, though short-term corrections are needed. The strategy is still to buy the dip, not chase highs, and to avoid shorting even if bearish. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 This short position on ZEC is finally closed completely 😮‍💨 Opened short at 1468.66, fully closed at 1379.6, held for almost 11 days, single contract realized a return of +306.69%. From start to finish, I wasn’t betting that “privacy coins have no future.” On the contrary, it’s precisely because ZEC’s story has been so smooth lately: ETF, privacy narrative, protocol upgrades, institutional funds—almost all the positive factors came together. By mid-September, ZEC had already risen 168% in a month, and ZCSH’s cumulative inflow exceeded $233 million in less than a month since listing. There’s no doubt there were many good news, but when the price rises faster than the good news can be digested, I prefer to guard against some expected pullback. The subsequent trend is also quite interesting. ZEC once surged to around $1698, but by October 1, it had retraced about 21% from the high. Meanwhile, ZCSH saw a net outflow of about $30.25 million on September 30. At least this shows that the funds chasing in earlier are not always one-way in. My own understanding is: the hotter a sector is, the real danger is often not that the story suddenly turns bad, but that everyone starts realizing the good story has already been fully priced in. Zcash doesn’t need to have any major issues; as long as the later buying is not as aggressive as before, the price can ease on its own. Of course, since I ended up profiting this time, I can’t pretend the period when it rose above 1580 didn’t happen. The unrealized loss was ugly then, and I also doubted whether the short was opened too early.$ETH, what are you doing—trying to squeeze every short? 😅 NFP dropped, but ETH is still hovering around 2,750 instead of giving bears the pullback they wanted. Shorting near 2,700 already looked risky after that afternoon pump. I’m staying patient and watching the next move. #交易之声 #USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #USTreasuryYieldsSurge The leader has something to say The SEC issued a new custody regulation, but many people are only focused on the non-farm payrolls and have overlooked this. I believe this has more long-term significance than the non-farm data. The basis is that the new regulation proposes to allow registered investment advisors to self-custody clients' crypto assets under conditions of security measures, insurance, and independent audits. At the same time, qualified state-chartered trust companies can also act as custodians. Previously, institutions wanting to compliantly custody BTC faced very complicated procedures. Now the threshold is lowered, and the custody path is being streamlined. Custody is the last barrier for institutions to enter the market; once this step is cleared, the operational risk of institutions allocating crypto assets will decrease. This is a medium-term positive, not a short-term catalyst. But don't expect it to pump the market. The rule is still in the proposal stage, and after publication in the Federal Register, there will be a 60-day comment period, so it's still early to be implemented. Long-term US Treasury yields are above 5.6%, and macro pressures remain. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 Yesterday, I took long positions on Bitcoin at 86000 and opened a short at 86500. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. The new custody regulation does not change my short-term rhythm; non-farm payrolls and interest rate expectations are the short-term directions. The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop loss. Good luck.$ETH went from +90U unrealized profit to -40U. 😵 I was waiting for 2,780, but it topped at 2,777 and reversed hard. The macro data looked supportive, yet crypto chose deleveraging over logic. One trade, one lesson: the market doesn’t owe us the breakout. #USNFPDataCools #G7OilReserveRelease #USTreasuryYieldsSurge Let's take a look at the Ethereum section. After the rise, there was a drop, which highlights the importance of taking profits. The view on Ethereum remains unchanged, and the price levels are the same. Ethereum price levels: ▸ Around 2,780: open short positions; no separate stop loss is given for shorts, please manage your own risk. ▸ Around 2,650: light buying. ▸ 2,600: add to long positions. ▸ Break below 2,400: stop loss for long positions. First, let's look at the day's path (Taiwan time, OKX perpetual): Yesterday afternoon it once surged to 2,777.7, just about two points shy of 2,780; after 10 PM it fell back along with Bitcoin, hitting a low of 2,646.9 during the 2 AM hour, touching the 2,650 area we mentioned but not reaching 2,600. Afterwards, it gradually rose between 2,656 and 2,680, around 2,679 at the time of the screenshot. So within one day, Ethereum approached 2,780 on the upside and also touched 2,650 on the downside, effectively testing both price levels. The price levels remain unchanged: upper boundary 2,780 for shorting, lower boundary 2,650 for light buying, 2,600 for adding longs, and exit longs if it breaks below 2,400. Technically, looking at the 1-hour chart: the upper red zone is roughly between 2,745 and 2,785, with a red mark at 2,769.00 and a Weak High label near the upper boundary. There is a line at 2,691.47 in the middle, and the current price is just below it. Below is blueBig Brother Maji's trading these past few days has been absolutely masterful! He always seems to perfectly take profit at the top and has the guts to buy back at the bottom. His total position size keeps swinging between $141 million and $165 million, and this rhythm of adding and reducing is really worth studying. Let's review his moves. *$BTC — The Perfect High and Low Game* He started with 536 coins holding a small loss. Then he decisively cut down to 369 coins and successfully exited at the 🎮 Saturday noon, three "off-track" coins are quietly rising $DOGE 0.09717, up 3.02%, just 3% away from 0.1. Meme is an emotion amplifier; after the non-farm payroll surprise, retail investors went wild. Liquidity is thin around 0.097 on weekends, if Bitcoin doesn't drop, hitting 0.1 on Monday is quite possible. But don't be greedy if it breaks 0.1, meme coins rise fast and fall fast too. $TRUMP 2.191, up 7.19%, the wildest policy coin tonight. It hovered around 2.1 for a week without breaking through, but after the non-farm surprise, it shot up directly to 2.19. But don't chase a coin that jumps 7%—historically, when it rises 7%, it usually gives back half the next day, and a small sell order over the weekend can drop it 3%. Just watch. $BOME 0.0010406, up 7.54%, the lunatic among small coins. Its market cap is just tens of millions; when the market surges, a few people can pump it 7%. But this kind of rise has no fundamentals, purely emotional trading. Chasing this coin on Saturday noon might mean waking up buried on Sunday. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Three "off-track" coins: DOGE close to 0.1, don't chase TRUMP, just watch BOME. Meme is the most hyped but also the most dangerous on weekends.NEAR Protocol $NEAR: Current price is about $4.7. The ETF has just been listed for three days, with Bitwise NRR cumulative net inflow of about $52.8 million. However, on October 1, NEAR Intents suffered a $3.8 million hacker attack, causing the price to drop from 5.34 to 4.74. The good news is that the vulnerability has been fixed and full compensation promised. The $4.74 low held, and institutions only entered with 0.8%. There is still significant room ahead, but short-term confidence needs time to recover. Dogecoin $DOGE: Stuck at the $0.10 resistance level, with the 7-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages all squeezed between 0.09 and 0.10. The market feels like a compressed spring. Retail and institutional bulls account for 72% and 78% respectively, with very crowded positions. The $0.10 mark is a critical line: a breakout could target 0.12, failure to break may cause a crash to 0.085-0.09. Filecoin $FIL: Current price is about $1.05. October 15 will be the most important day for FIL this year — the six-year lock-up period for Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation ends, and the annual new supply will drop sharply from about 88.4 million to about 22 million, a 75% decrease. This means the biggest source of selling pressure each year will disappear, significantly tightening supply. However, note: this does not mean the price will rise on that day; the effect will gradually show over the following months. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 The non-farm payrolls are clearly positive, yet the market is moving downward; this contrast is really worth keeping an eye on. Do you also feel that awkwardness of "the data is fine, but the price doesn't agree"? Friday's data appeared optimistic on the surface, but BTC and ETH just couldn't get going. The previous highs weren't broken, and they continue to oscillate between 82,000 and 87,000. The daytime already priced in expectations, so the evening will most likely be sideways to weak. With the midterm elections approaching and policy tone still tight, risk appetite hasn't truly opened up. But the really interesting part is ETH. Today, open interest surged by 200 million, with funds starting to position from 8 AM, and large transactions appearing at high levels at noon and 4 PM. Even with some pullbacks, the main players haven't withdrawn. Looking at the candlestick positions, the chips are basically stacked at high levels; buy orders around 2,670 are firmly held, current price is 2,748, and there aren't many sell orders above. What does this indicate? The funds actually acknowledge some downward space but have left themselves a margin of error. The main cost zone is around 2,750, but they don't expect a deep drop, so a lot of support is buried around 2,670. If there is a real rally tonight, this heavy position batch might be judged wrong. Conversely, if the large buy orders below withdraw and no one takes over, the price will still slide down. Regarding sector strength, neither BTC nor ETH shows leadership in gains, and altcoins are even less so; capital preference isn't spreading but rather contracting. The bullish logic is: high-level chips aren't dispersed, indicating some are unwilling to give up future space. The bearish risk is: expectations are too full, and once support withdraws, the correction will be swift. Next, I will focus on$BTC has a very intuitive proof that the low-priced chips and pricing power of BTC are rapidly flowing out of the crypto circle to ETFs and institutions: The chart below shows the cumulative net inflow/outflow data of BTC ETFs starting from January 11, 2024: Currently, the historical cumulative net inflow is +$57.7 billion, and the price is 84,500 The last time the cumulative net inflow reached +$57.7 billion was on September 30, 2025, when BTC's price was 115,000 The cumulative net inflow of ETFs is the same, but the price is 27% lower, indicating that many spot chips in the crypto circle have been bought by ETFs. The cumulative net inflow of ETFs has also started a new round of growth since the MSTR coin selling incident, and it is less than 10% away from the cumulative fund amount's new high, Another interesting event is that the highest point of BTC ETF cumulative net inflow was on October 10, 2025, with a price of 122,500 and a cumulative net inflow of +$62.7 billion. After the 1011 incident, funds began to flee ETFs, turning inflows directly into outflows. It inevitably makes one wonder, if the 1011 black swan had not appeared in a parallel universe, would the last BTC cycle have reached 150,000? 180,000? 200,000? But we just don't know.2660 broke, don't follow the old habit this time The 2660 line, the price has been sticking to it for more than a week. It has been tested countless times, broken a few times in between, but each time it was recovered. People got used to buying on the dip. Don't follow the old habit this time. The previous breaks were caused by low volume grinding, and after grinding, it went back by itself. This time it was smashed down: nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the US stock market opened directly on the recession side. Chips are also changing hands, 135 million positions were cleared, big players closed their short positions, and retail investors took over. Don't apply the old habit of "it always recovers after breaking" to this time. Last night it was smashed from 2768 down to 2647, just hitting the 4H lower band, dropping 4.4%. Now it's bouncing on the line. To be clear, it’s still the same as before, breaking and then recovering. But recovering doesn’t mean it’s stable; we’ll watch this all day today. The short term is oversold, so a bounce is normal. But a bounce doesn’t mean recovery. If it can’t recover, this line will turn from the floor underfoot into the ceiling above. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 NFP triggered panic, but I’m still taking the long side. $BTC around 84.6K, $ETH near 2.67K. Everyone is shouting “recession,” while I’m watching for a possible shakeout. Plan: scale into longs around 84K BTC / 2.65K ETH. Defense: 82.5K / 2.6K. If support holds, I’m looking for 88K BTC and 3K ETH. High risk, small margin for error. NFA. #USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #AnthropicEyesNovIPO #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 非农落地了，聊一下我关注的几个交易方向。 先回顾数据：9月非农仅增2.9万，预期8.4万；失业率4.2%，预期4.1%；前值还下修了6万。这组数据对市场的影响是“双向”的——短期利好风险资产，但中期暴露了经济走弱的隐忧。 方向一：比特币。 数据后BTC一度冲到87000美元，日内涨幅超3%。之前一周BTC在82500-85700区间横盘，现在突破了区间上沿。个人觉得如果能回踩85000附近企稳，是个值得关注的入场参考。上方关注90000整数关口。 方向二：黄金。 非农后黄金也涨了，纽约黄金合约涨约1%至每盎司4250美元。但黄金面临一个矛盾：加息预期降温利好黄金，可美债收益率仍然处于5%以上的高位，对无收益资产构成压力。有分析师提到，如果美债收益率高位回落叠加非农不及预期，黄金可能出现脉冲式反弹。短线关注4200-4250区间的攻防。 方向三：美股。 三大股指周五集体走高，道指涨0.63%，标普涨0.87%，纳指涨1.21%。英伟达涨2.Last night's market action probably caught some people off guard again. US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings dropped to 3%. The employment data for the previous two months was also revised down by a total of 60,000. The signs of cooling in the job market are indeed quite clear. Logically, a cooling job market would lead the market to reprice expectations for the Fed to slow tightening, and $BTC did indeed surge to around 87,300 at one point. But the subsequent pullback was also quite severe, with the highest in the screenshot at 87,239, the lowest hitting 83,123, and now a rebound to around 84,500. This is what I find worth pondering: a positive macro outlook does not mean the price will only go up without falling. Earlier, I opened a short at 83,400, thinking there was resistance above, but BTC directly rallied upward, and my trading logic was slapped in the face for a while. Looking back now, macro data can only provide directional clues; what really determines whether this trade can be made depends on how the price moves. Currently, I am focusing on two levels: whether it can hold above around 85,500 on the upside, and whether the 83,100 level on the downside will be tested again. If the rebound cannot hold back above, it indicates selling pressure may not be over; if it holds and continues with volume, we cannot just assume it will keep falling because it dropped sharply before. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH $LIT surged into CoinGecko's hot search, only up 5.241%: I'm bullish $LIT surged into CoinGecko's hot search, current price 0.743, 24h up 5.241%, I'm directly bullish. 30-day range position 0.218, 7d -12.07%, the first dip bottom wave is not a peak chase. Long-short account ratio 0.8038, more shorts, short squeeze fuel ready. BTC 84663.21, 30-day range position 0.78, funds in the offensive phase are looking for low-level catch-up targets. To be fair, 24h volume 799655 USDT, volume ratio only 0.049, low volume rise without backup; funding rate 5e-05 neutral, OI 17,015,286.50 down -0.94% from record, leverage not on the table. Resistance above: 0.752/0.755/0.758 Support below: 0.74/0.724 Watershed: 0.755, above it look to 0.758, fall back means false breakout Conclusion: Low-level hot search + offensive phase, I take the lead to be bullish. Enter directly at 0.743, stop loss if below 0.724, hold above 0.755 to reach 0.758. Watching the market, follow me, signals coming soon. $LIT $BTCAround 84K is deciding whether $BTC is consolidating within a range or facing a failed breakout. Kraken's public market data shows $BTC around 84.63K, with a 24-hour range of approximately 83.86K–87.23K; the price is close to the upper boundary of the range but has not yet completed a valid breakout. What really matters is not a momentary spike but whether it can close firmly above and hold on a pullback. Bitcoin expert Feng's public view still leans toward "bullish mid-term as long as support holds," but I don't take the target price as a reason to enter. My judgment criteria are simple: only a volume-backed close above 87.23K counts as a confirmed breakout; if it spikes up but then falls back below 84K, especially losing 83.86K, I will treat this breakout attempt as false. Chasing orders in the middle of the range is not cost-effective. I will wait for a close confirmation or a pullback with support before deciding whether to follow, controlling position size after the invalidation level is clear. Are you more focused on the close breakout above 87.23K or the pullback support near 84K? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.The bulls say: The support level at 84000 has held, the trend is bullish, so we should go long. The bears say: The resistance at 85000 is right ahead; if it can't break through, it will fall, so we should go short. BTC current price is 84623.0, exactly in the middle. Losing 200,000 U trying to recover, when both bulls and bears have valid points, I choose not to take sides and wait for the price to show direction before following. If it breaks through 85000 and the pullback doesn't break it, go long; if it falls below 84000 and the rebound fails, go short. Open a position with 5000 U, stop loss at 83900, never hold a position without a stop loss. Trading is not a debate; you don't need to have an opinion every time. If unsure, just wait. $BTC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 BTC and ETH spot ETFs are experiencing simultaneous net outflows, cooling down capital enthusiasm. This does not mean the market will immediately reverse, but it indicates that institutional incremental funds are less active than before. ETFs used to be an important source of funds; now with simultaneous outflows, short-term risk appetite is under pressure. The key is not the single-day outflow, but whether it can continue and how prices react. If it is just a short-term outflow, BTC can still oscillate at high levels, indicating spot support, and some funds may just be reallocating. Be cautious of continuous ETF net outflows, BTC breaking key support, ETH consistently underperforming BTC, and contract leverage not significantly decreasing. If these occur simultaneously, fund withdrawal and leverage clearing may resonate, amplifying volatility. The observation sequence can be viewed as follows: ETF flows → US Treasury yields and the dollar → BTC spot support → ETH/BTC strength → altcoin risk appetite. If ETFs resume net inflows, BTC stops falling and breaks out with volume, institutional funds may return. If outflows continue, BTC rebounds without volume, and ETH continues to underperform, reduce chasing positions. My judgment is that it is not yet time to determine a trend reversal based solely on ETF outflows, but short-term signals are clear, and incremental funds are cooling. Before funds return, rebounds can be watched, but chasing gains should be cautious. The real long signal is the resonance of funds, price, and macro factors. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Lick a little every day, small position, take profits when you see good gains. Never go big, because going big might lead to zero. Now every time I open a short position at a high point, I worry about liquidation. It's really about altcoins because after being doubled by altcoins twice, then pulled 5 times higher on the short side, I've been crushed twice. So now whenever I short altcoins, I shrink the interface a bit to check the historical highest point. If the forced liquidation price is within half of the historical high, I get very anxious inside, afraid it will hit me suddenly. Small positions, go hard! $NIGHT Here is your post rewritten in more detailed, clear wording: *Looking at my account today, I have very mixed emotions. BTC and SOL are trying hard to make back my losses, but ZEC — this bottomless pit — has taught me a super expensive lesson in risk management.* *$BTC - The Stabilizer* - Entry Avg: 84044 / Current Price: 84510 - Floating Profit: *276.58U, ROI 11.03%* BTC is still the anchor of my account, climbing slowly but steadily. My defense line / support is still around 79000. As long as t$CT is trading at $0.5558 (+10.51%), holding near its 24h high between $0.4807 and $0.6365. Price is surging above MA5 ($0.5491), MA10 ($0.5400), and MA20 ($0.5275) on 15m chart, bouncing sharply from $0.4848 to $0.5638 after Concrete on-chain financial OS announcement. Driven by $289.55M USDT in daily turnover and 520.95M CT in 24h volume, showing +10.51% today as No.5 trending New listing. Holding above $0.5491 could pave the way for retest of $0.5638. @OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit Shorted at $6.5, held for two months, cut losses at $8.5. $10.98 million just gone like that. Of that, $5.18 million was funding fees, $5.8 million was price loss. To put it bluntly, this person bet that $CXMT would drop after listing, but the price stayed as solid as a rock, and he had to keep paying daily to maintain this short position. I hold the spot, and seeing this situation is actually a bit complicated. On one hand, I think he deserved it—rushing to short before the listing isn’t judgment, it’s gambling. On the other hand, I feel a bit moved—he held on for two months before admitting defeat, that must have been a lot of unwillingness. But the market doesn’t care whether you’re willing or not. The price went from 6.5 to 8.5, never giving shorts any respect in between. To be fair, this $10.98 million loss is not undeserved at all. The real question is, why do some people always think new listings should drop? If you hold the asset, how would you view someone shorting before the listing? #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $CXMT 【10.3 Morning BTC Market Express】 Today's morning BTC market showed a "roller coaster": it surged to $87,219 in the early hours, then quickly dropped, hitting a low of $83,858, currently around $84,600, down about 0.35% in 24h. Surge logic: US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 (expected 90,000), sharply lowering rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields and the dollar weakened, short sellers were liquidated for $142 million, driving a rapid price rally. Crash trigger: Iran attacked a tanker again in the Strait of Hormuz (the sixth incident this week), geopolitical risks instantly outweighed macro positives, bulls collapsed at the 87k resistance level, spot selling pressure dominated the pullback, with long positions liquidated over $36 million (Binance/Bybit/OKX). Key levels: support below at $83,800, resistance above at $87,000, maintain a range-bound view until a clear breakout occurs. This round of the market has produced a group of people who have never lost money. They enter just as the price surges, buy anything and make money easily, growing bolder with each purchase. Their accounts have been green for so long that they call it insight. Coin selection, timing, stop-loss—none of these have been tested in a downturn; they rely entirely on the market support. The longer the support lasts, the more they believe in their own skill. The loudest voices in the group are from this batch, showing off profits, recommending coins, all with impressive records. Those who have lost money speak less; no one wants to be the killjoy. When I first entered the circle, I was just like this—buying whatever went up, pulling the curve beautifully in two weeks, truly thinking I had found the way. When the market turned, I gave it all back in a month and even lost some extra. Looking back, most of the profits I made earlier were thanks to the market; my own effort was negligible. Later, I set a rule for myself: split every unrealized profit into two parts—one part from the market, one part from my own judgment. I only add to my position based on the part I earned myself. The part given by the market, if it falls back, I don’t mind; it was never truly mine, so don’t use it to boost your position. $SOL In this round so far, the newly added positions have never experienced a single loss. When a real correction comes, the first to sell will be them; after running, they’ll congratulate each other for being quick. Don’t be misled by the noise then; the ones getting washed out are those who have never been hit before. Manage your position according to your own account. Go through your holdings and clearly mark each one as either market-given or self-earned. If you can’t mark it, treat it as luck and reduce that position by one level first. The non-farm payroll night saw all the good news played out, and the market reversed to harvest. New job additions were far below expectations; the data was actually positive, but the market first pulled up to lure buyers and then quickly smashed down. The Nasdaq surged and then fell back, with the 740 level as the dividing line between strength and weakness. $BTC jumped from 86000 to 87200 to lure buyers before diving; short-term moving averages are turning down, with support seen at 84200. $ETH surged to 2777, then a large bearish candle gave back all gains, falling back near 2700; bearish pressure is increasing, and if 2700 breaks, it will test 2640. $ZEC dropped directly to around 1280 early this morning. The bears must be very happy.DOGE long position wildly earned 583U, TRUMP and ETH also in the green, BICO dragging behind, net profit of four positions 503U Just opened the account and took a look, DOGE, TRUMP, and ETH positions are all profitable, was quite happy at first, but then the BICO short position reversed and pulled up, overall net profit of four positions is 503U. Position update: $DOGE: opened at 0.0823, current price 0.0921, full 20X long position, floating profit 583U, ROI 212%. #USLongTermYieldsRise $DOGE 10.3 Sola $SOL Short position: When the rebound reaches the 120.0-120.5 range, directly short Among these three coins, this wave has dropped the most sharply, falling directly from 123.35 to 117.08. The high point dropped nearly 6 points, making the short position momentum the strongest. The current rebound looks promising, but it is actually a technical correction after overselling and cannot rise too high. The 120.0-120.5 range above is a previous dense trading area with concentrated selling pressure. Rebounding to this point is an excellent position to short. Place the stop loss above 121.5 for defense, and watch 118.0-117.5; if it breaks down, test the previous low near 117. Long position: Buy lightly on the pullback to 117.5-117.0 For those wanting to go long, wait for the pullback near the previous low, and lightly try in the 117.5-117.0 range once the decline stabilizes. Sola is highly volatile, so the position size must be lighter than the previous two coins. Place the stop loss below 116.5, and decisively cut losses if it effectively breaks the previous low. The upward target is first 119.0-119.5; take profits at this level and don’t be greedy. In a rebound market, take profits when the rally looks good. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Recently, the big players have been quietly increasing their positions, and address data shows that whale addresses have had net inflows for three consecutive days. BTC current price is 84623.0, resistance at 85000, support at 84000. I lost 200,000 U and am recovering. I've followed big players and also got cut, but later realized that big players increasing positions doesn't mean an immediate rise; they may build positions in batches over several months. My approach is to watch big players' moves but not blindly follow; wait for the price to pull back to the support level before entering, open a position with 5000 U, stop loss at 83900, target 85000, never hold a position without a stop loss. The direction of big players can be referenced, but entry points must be calculated by yourself. $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% The amount of Bitcoin available to sell on exchanges is decreasing. Many coins have already been withdrawn by users and stored in their own cold wallets, or moved into ETF custody accounts, no longer on exchanges. Across the market, the total Bitcoin held on all exchanges is approximately 2.7 million coins. This is a decrease from about 3.15 million coins in 2024. Theoretically, this reduces the "spot selling pressure"—those wanting to dump coins immediately have fewer coins on hand, tightening supply. But this does not necessarily mean the price will rise. Previously, when Bitcoin’s price fell from a high of $126,000 to $60,000, the Bitcoin reserves on exchanges were also continuously dropping. Scarcity did not prevent that major drop; reserves were falling and prices were falling as well. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $83,000 to $86,000. Therefore, we can focus on two things: First: Will the 2.7 million Bitcoin reserves continue to decline, causing supply to tighten further? Second: Is there any Bitcoin flowing back into exchanges, increasing exchange reserves? And if so, is this inflow preparing for potential selling or is buying pressure increasing? It’s true that exchange inventories are very low and supply is indeed tighter, but this only means "there’s less readily sellable inventory," not that a sharp price surge will happen immediately. Ultimately, it depends on whether there is enough buying demand to absorb it. The bottom price is there, but someone still has to be willing to buy.The "500-day rule" has a fairly high hit rate historically. In the last cycle, buying 500 days before the halving and selling 500 days after the halving corresponds to the period from November 2022 to September 2025. #BTC rose from around 16,000 to 126,000 during that time. From 2016 to 2017 and 2019 to 2021, following the same rhythm also captured the main upward trends.87000 is not a "breakthrough." 87000 is the "peak of the short corpses." The 120 million short liquidations from 85000 to 87200 are a one-time fuel. Once burned out, it's gone. To rise next to 88442, 90000, real cash spot buying is needed. But whales are selling, ETFs are slowing down, and long-term holders are offloading. Don't talk about a "breakthrough" at the peak of the short corpses. First, see if 85000 can hold. If it holds, 88442 is the next gate. If it doesn't hold, 80616 will be the next graveyard for bulls. (The above content does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks; only those alive have the right to talk about the future.) $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $ZEC Multi-Timeframe Analysis 15-Minute Chart - The low at 1271.40 rebounded, MACD shows red bars, RSI has surged to 78.46, indicating short-term overbought conditions. - Supertrend is at 1297.13, and the current price is holding above this indicator, suggesting a short-term rebound recovery; however, RSI is high, so a 15-minute level pullback for digestion could occur at any time. - Short-term support: around 1297; resistance: 1340-1360. 1-Hour Chart - The 1-hour MACD has formed a golden cross at the bottom, RSI is 56.48, indicating a rebound recovery after a decline. - SAR is at 1339.43, just above the price; 1339 is the first hurdle on the hourly chart. Holding above this level will open up rebound space; failure to break through may lead to another decline. - The larger structure remains a downtrend with lower highs; the current move is a rebound within the downtrend, not a reversal. 4-Hour Chart - The 4-hour MACD is still below zero, DIF remains below DEA, indicating a weak pattern. - RSI is 42.49, not in a strong zone; Supertrend at 1452.53 is far from the current price, indicating significant medium-term resistance. No bullish reversal on the 4-hour chart; this is just a technical rebound after a decline. Daily Chart - Daily MACD shows a death cross, red bars turning green, RSI at 30.62, in a weak zone. - Daily SAR is at 1662.47, price is well below SAR, the daily major trend remains bearish; currently, this is just an oversold recovery rebound, not a new major uptrend. Summary of Market Outlook ✅ Short-term (15 min / 1 hour): Oversold rebound with potential to push higher, but 1339 on the 1-hour chart is the first key level, and 15-minute RSI is overbought, making chasing highs a poor risk-reward. ❌ Medium to long-term (4h / daily): Main trend is bearish; this rebound looks like a downtrend continuation. After the rebound completes, there is risk of further downside. Key Levels to Watch 1. Upper resistance: 1339 (hourly SAR) → 1367 (hourly Supertrend) - Holding above 1339 supports continuation of rebound, target near 1360; - Failure to break 1339 likely leads to short-term pullback to 1297 support. 2. Lower defense: 1271.40, the starting point of this rebound; a break below this level signals the end of the rebound and continuation of the downtrend.After the non-farm payrolls were released last night, U.S. Treasury yields first fell, then rose again. Reuters reported that the 10-year yield returned to about 5.26% during the session. This concerns me more than simply seeing yields hit new highs: the market has already received a weaker employment report, yet bonds have not maintained their rise. This indicates that one less rate hike is not enough to reassure investors to hold long-term bonds for now. Concerns about inflation and financing conditions in the coming years will not be easily dispelled by a single month’s employment data. This also explains why stocks can rise due to lower rate hike expectations, while the pressure on borrowers does not ease simultaneously. Stocks adjust expectations first, but companies preparing to finance must face actual quotes from banks and bond markets, and these two can be out of sync. I feel somewhat uneasy about this market. The risk appetite on screen has returned, which easily leads people to think financial conditions have loosened; but if financing costs remain high, expansion plans still need to be recalculated. Especially for companies relying on continuous borrowing to maintain investment, they cannot declare pressure relieved just because stock prices rise. What I want to see next is whether yields can continue to move down after subsequent data releases, rather than falling intraday only to be pushed back up. Policy expectations have improved, but evidence is still needed for financing conditions to improve. Mixing these two things together can lead to overestimating how easily this rebound can proceed. #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The ENJ daily chart confirms explosive buy volume pushing price action into the macro resistance band near $0.040, where initial upper-wick supply is being absorbed. While surpassing the dynamic MA100 validates an emerging uptrend, entering directly into structural resistance carries elevated volatility risk. The preferred strategy is to wait for a retracement Long entry near $0.0305–$0.0315 with a stop-loss parameter below $0.02629, targeting the $0.09944 $ENJ #USNFPDataCools Looking at ETF capital flows, the date must always be considered together with the amount. On September 30, BTC and ETH spot ETFs did indeed experience simultaneous outflows, but Farside's complete records show that on October 1, BTC had already recovered with a net inflow of about $103 million, while ETH continued to see outflows. The table for October 2 still has products not updated, so partial totals cannot yet be taken as the final result. What makes me cautious this time is how easily we turn a single capital snapshot into a story of ongoing events. Today we say institutions are retreating, tomorrow we say they are returning, but the actual capital may just be fluctuating back and forth, while the explanations remain very certain every day. I prefer to treat ETF data as a record with a time range. It can answer how much net subscription occurred on a certain day; it cannot answer how long this money is intended to be held or whether it is the same group of people buying and selling. No matter how beautiful the chart, it cannot testify for missing information. BTC's recovery of inflows and ETH's continued outflows also indicate that the two cannot be summarized by a single "institutional attitude." Fund clients buy different assets and may not be making the same kind of allocation. It's fine to talk about capital cooling off now, but the duration must be clearly stated. Especially when data is not yet fully reported, prematurely announcing a direction often only leads to having to make supplementary explanations later. Rather than focusing on trending topics to label the market, I would rather wait for a more complete daily report. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. This report certainly puts a damper on further rate hikes, but to directly declare that the U.S. economy has collapsed seems too hasty. There is a detail in the BLS report that is easy to overlook: the unemployment rate has been fluctuating within a relatively narrow range since March, and the labor force participation rate has not changed significantly. Weak job growth is still quite distant from a sudden surge in unemployment. It now seems more like companies lack the motivation to expand hiring, and the economy is not yet bad enough to force them into widespread layoffs. This situation is actually quite awkward for the market. Everyone hopes for weaker data to reduce Fed rate hikes; but if the data is too weak, corporate income and consumption will suffer. The outcome we want—cooling employment without really hurting the economy—is not an easy balance to achieve. My assessment of this data is that more solid reasons are needed to continue raising rates, but it’s too early to celebrate rate cuts. If inflation refuses to fall and employment remains weak, policy will become much more difficult than it is now. Crypto prices can first trade on the expectation of fewer rate hikes, but don’t treat all bad economic news as good news for yourself. Behind the employment report are income and consumption, which will sooner or later affect risk assets. Skipping one rate hike for now is a relief; entering a loosening cycle immediately is not something we can say yet. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Short sellers ran first, the market followed later The nonfarm payroll data hasn't appeared yet, but the shorts have already withdrawn. They fled faster than the data release, more decisively than stop-loss orders. Market sentiment is shifting gears: previously, trading was dominated by rate hikes and high interest rates, leaving everyone disillusioned; now, with risk appetite warming up, short positions are as fragile as paper—either forcibly liquidated or scared into closing themselves. When BTC lifts its head, ETH follows suit. High Beta altcoins like ZEC are even more extreme, outperforming the broader market during the short squeeze phase. BTC rises 5%, altcoins surge to a degree that makes you question reality. ETH’s elasticity is naturally greater than BTC’s; when BTC breaks key resistance, ETH is like a compressed spring, and ZEC is a spring fitted with a rocket. The key now is not guessing how high ZEC can fly, but watching the transmission chain: BTC breaks out → ETH follows → sentiment warms → shorts stop out → leverage chases the rally. Once linked, it’s not just a rebound; it’s a short squeeze. Shorts? No, it’s fuel. What shorts fear most isn’t the rise itself, but that the rise forces them to buy back their own short positions. Buy, and you add fuel to the market; don’t buy, and you keep getting lifted. The market never follows the script. When a trend truly starts, the first thing to disappear isn’t opportunity, but the margin for error on contrarian positions. Just venting, don’t get carried away. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 📉 Current Market Situation: $USELESS's recent pullback is indeed fierce, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 10%, and the price falling from 0.259 down to around 0.222. Looking at the 5-minute candlestick chart, it is currently in a phase of sideways consolidation after a sharp decline. Although the moving average system is still in a bearish alignment, the short-term downward momentum seems to be weakening, forming a small platform. 📊 Hidden Risks Behind the Data: But I glanced at the depth data (Figure 2) and found an interesting phenomenon: in the contract long-short position ratio, the short accounts proportion is as high as 64.95%, while the long accounts only make up 35.05%. What does this mean? It means that retail sentiment in the market is extremely pessimistic now, with almost everyone bearish and shorting. In the contract market, when everyone is on one side of the boat, it is often the most dangerous time. The main force is very likely to use this "consensus expectation" to launch a short-term violent pump (short squeeze), wiping out these crowded short stop-loss orders before the real decline begins. 🧠 My Strategy: Stay Calm and Wait for the "Bull Trap" Based on this judgment, I absolutely will not chase shorts now. Opening shorts directly at this level (0.222) is not cost-effective in terms of risk-reward and is more likely to become fuel for the main force's pump. My plan is very clear: Patiently wait for a rebound: I will watch the market closely and wait for a rebound. Ideally, this rebound can slightly break through the short-term resistance zone (for example, the 0.230-0.235 range), creating a false impression of "stopping the fall and recovering" #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% Employment data was weaker than expected, and the market's first reaction was not to worry about the economy, but to breathe a sigh of relief. Poor data means less pressure for continued monetary tightening, and money is more willing to flow into risk assets. Tech stocks led the charge, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high intraday, and the S&P and Dow rising for two consecutive days. But on the other hand, it was not calm: US Treasuries were sold off again, yields formed a V-shape intraday, crude oil plunged due to the G7's planned reserve release, and gold and silver declined throughout the week. The significance of this combination for $BTC is that its current rhythm is tightly linked to macro liquidity— as long as the market believes interest rates have peaked, funds are willing to allocate more to high-volatility assets. Whether this asset can hold onto this wave of sentiment depends not on daily price changes, but on two things: whether US Treasury yields will push back up, and whether upcoming employment and inflation data will overturn the logic that "weak data is good news." If yields continue to rise and funds flow back into bonds, risk asset sentiment will cool down first. So right now, it feels more like expectations are driving the market rather than fundamentals actually improving. 947,000% This number is reasonable, based on the IPO price of $12 in January 1999. After multiple stock splits, the adjusted price is about $0.04, rising to the current $233.95, the increase is indeed on this scale. But the statement "Investing 10,000 in 2008 turned into 16 million" depends on the exact purchase date. In June 2008, the adjusted price was about $0.47, turning 10,000 into 4.98 million. In December 2008, it dropped to around $0.20, turning 10,000 into 11.7 million.10.3 BTC layout idea $ETH Entry range: around 2670–2690, buy in batches Stop loss: 2640 Take profit: First target: 2710; Second target: 2750 BTC current price: 2679.92 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% BTC dipped to a low of 2650.88, with clear capital support below, price oscillated upward, MACD golden cross signal appeared, short-term bullish momentum is recovering, rebound momentum is better than ETH. This is a recovery phase after overselling, short-term moving averages are turning upward, we focus on observing the strength of support levels.I revised the original text to better reflect the style of professional crypto market news and changed the unconfirmed "data manipulation is a strategy" to a more cautious market interpretation. The September nonfarm payrolls indeed showed an increase of only 29,000 jobs, with a combined downward revision of 60,000 jobs for July and August; July was revised from +21,000 to -10,000. Bureau of Labor Statistics Writing $BTC nonfarm payrolls landed, first breaking the range, then quickly retreating, with short-term bulls and bears once again engaging in a "two-way harvest." Last night, the US September nonfarm payroll data was released, showing an increase of only 29,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of about 84,000 to 90,000. More notably, July's data was revised from +21,000 to -10,000, and August's from 162,000 down to 133,000, a total downward revision of 60,000 jobs for the first two months. The cooling signal in the labor market is more evident than just looking at September's new job numbers alone. After the announcement, $BTC once surged strongly past the consolidation range but then quickly pulled back, with the 24-hour total network liquidation volume exceeding $570 million at one point. The market first rallied and then reversed, making it easy for both long and short positions to be swept away by rapid fluctuations. On the macro level, the weak employment data has renewed market discussions about a potential shift in future monetary policy. Employment growth is slowing, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, while wage growth remains moderate. This means the market is now focusing not only on whether interest rates will be cut but also on how the Federal Reserve will rebalance between employment and inflation going forward. Capital flows have also shown clear divergence: 🔹 BTC $BTC $ETH The day before yesterday I said, build your position slowly, don’t rush in. Last night BTC tried to break through 87k but then fell back into the range. From the candlestick chart, even if BTC drops to 80k and then rebounds, the structure still shows an upward trend. My previous view hasn’t changed: every pullback is a buying opportunity. Continue building positions in quality projects, but don’t trade excessively and lose money. In the past few weeks, many people have lost half of the one million dollars they earned. I’m basically safe because I bottomed out early at 60k. When the price reached 80k, I didn’t add more risk, just took some profits and then continued holding the positions built at 60k $TRUMP Dinner Market Review: Event-Driven Pulse, Don't Mistake Good News for a Reversal Last night on OKX, $TRUMP experienced a typical "news-driven pump, fundamentals contradict" market move. After the dinner announcement, the price surged from around 2.05 to 2.25, up about 10%, but failed to hold and quickly fell back below 2.10. It is currently struggling in the 2.12–2.25 resistance zone. Pump Logic: Trump will hold the third holder dinner on November 22 at the Washington National Golf Club. The top 185 holders are invited, with the top 29 receiving VIP treatment. The news is topical, and short-term funds are leveraging this for an emotional pulse. Why can't it sustain the rise? Three major drawbacks: 1) Dinner eligibility is locked as of November 12, so the real holding incentive window is only one month, with no new narrative afterward; 2) About 900,000 tokens unlock daily, creating structural selling pressure that a single dinner event cannot offset; 3) Technically, the MACD is bearish, and the 2.12–2.25 range has been repeatedly confirmed as strong resistance. Trading Strategy: The 2.12–2.25 zone above is a clear supply area, making chasing the rally low in cost-effectiveness. If the surge volume shrinks, consider light short positions with a stop loss above 2.25; the 2.00 level below is short-term psychological support, with a break targeting 1.92–1.82. If volume increases and it stabilizes above 2.25, then consider following the trend with short-term longs. Core principle: Good news-driven pumps are exit windows, not entry windows. Manage position size and set stop losses properly. $TRUMP #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Here's the conclusion first: this market hasn't finished falling yet, don't rush to bottom-fish. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, July data revised down to negative growth, unemployment rate hit 4.2%. This is not just a simple cooling down; the job market is sounding an alarm. Many think bad data is good news, betting the Fed will ease, but today $BTC, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL$SOL are all green, only gold slightly rose. The logic has changed: before, bad data meant bets on rate cuts; now with the employment cliff, the market's first reaction is a hard landing, recession fears outweigh rate cut expectations. Gold's slight rise shows funds are seeking safety. Looking at ETFs, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have had net outflows for several days, Coinbase data also shows Bitcoin profit-taking hitting a yearly high, both institutions and retail are exiting. Bitcoin broke below 85,000, next support to watch is 83,000; if that doesn't hold, then 80,000. $ETH Ethereum is weaker, no decent rebound after breaking below 2,700. When to act? Wait for two signals. First, ETF funds show continuous net inflows again, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment. Second, the market shows volume-driven stabilization, not a low-volume gradual decline. Don't rush to bottom-fish before these two appear. My strategy is simple: hold a deadweight spot position, unload all short-term leverage. Today, no guessing the bottom, no chasing shorts, wait for recession expectations to be fully priced in. Preserve capital and act only when signals are clear.The most expensive user education in cryptocurrency history is often not bought with money but given away for free. In 2014, a batch of DOGE faucet websites distributed 10 Dogecoins for free to every registered newcomer. This seemingly inconspicuous move became the largest user enlightenment campaign in crypto history. In fact, the faucet model was not pioneered by DOGE. As early as 2010, Bitcoin core developer Gavin Andresen created the Bitcoin Faucet, where each visitor could claim 5 BTC. But BTC's high unit price and the community's high entry barrier caused the faucet to quickly dry up due to cost issues. DOGE perfectly filled this gap: a low unit price meant the psychological burden of one coin was almost zero, so giving away tens of millions of coins was not painful; the Shiba Inu meme community atmosphere made receiving coins an entertaining activity rather than a serious financial act. Combined, DOGE faucets distributed billions of coins, covering newcomers worldwide. The business logic behind this is worth a close look. The customer acquisition cost of traditional internet products rises year by year, while DOGE faucets compressed acquisition costs to nearly zero—the gifted coins were almost worthless, but the experience of "owning cryptocurrency for the first time" was priceless. After receiving coins, users naturally learned how to use wallets, how to send transfers, and what addresses are. A whole set of crypto knowledge was internalized through play. Many veteran players recall their entry into the field starting from a certain $DOGE faucet page.
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