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The reversal happened the day after the nine consecutive breaks: 10/1 was not a consecutive draw but +103 million — yet the coin surged to 86–87
The previous version on 10/1 missed IBIT, looks like it’s coming out again. Farside completed it: 9/30 −148.7 million break, 10/1 total +102.7 million, IBIT alone +195.6 million overshadowing most returns. OKXBTC around 86100–86200, 24h high about 86915, low about 83169, strong short squeeze flavor — capital flow turned positive, but price led ahead.
Non-call hanging (not a shout): ① Take “near 87” as trend confirmation, first see if daily line can hold 86; ② Position reduced to needed at 20:30 today; ③ Trouble ≠ continue watering tomorrow — watch the edges first, avoid high orders
Sources: Farside, OKX spot, liquidation combined secondary reports.
Vote A: flow case more real, stepping in / B: squeeze first, reduce leverage first / C: not lying flat?The truly interesting thing about BTC today is that the market is about to face a "data acceptance".
In the past few days, BTC has already bounced back from around $83,000 to above $86,000, and the US spot BTC ETF in September recorded a net inflow of about $2.65 billion, the second highest monthly inflow since October 2025.
But now the market is entering another phase.
The money has come in, and the price has returned.
Next, it depends on whether these funds can continue to translate into sustained price performance.
More importantly, the US non-farm payroll data is about to be released tonight. The market currently expects about 90,000 new jobs in September, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. If the data significantly deviates from expectations, interest rate expectations and US Treasury yields may fluctuate again, and BTC will face new macro pricing.
So don’t rush to draw conclusions about BTC today.
Key resistance is around $87,000, and support is first seen near $84,500.
What’s really worth watching is: after ETF funds pushed BTC to this level, can the non-farm data give the market a new directional clue.
Tonight, it may not be about who is shouting bullish or bearish, but about how the funds choose after the data comes out.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC $BTC is currently overall bullish, but the short-term is a bit high. The 4h RSI is 69.2, which is high, and the 1h RSI is 68.1, also high, with MACD trending down.
If looking for an opportunity, it is not recommended to chase now; wait for a pullback around 84787–85032 before considering.
Timing: The zone is relatively high, wait for the pullback to be in place before comparing.
Window: About 4 to 12 hours (1 to 3 bars of 4h); ends once the target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
The upper target is 86877; breaking below 83602 indicates this wave's logic has failed.
After failure, do not force trades; wait to retake EMA55 before reconsidering.
Summary: The direction is bullish, but only wait for the pullback; chasing is not recommended.
For analysis only, not advice or an order instruction.ETH: Fundamentals are in the sky, price is underground, is this reasonable?
Let's start with the conclusion: ETH is currently the most mispriced major coin, bar none. The on-chain strength is absurdly strong, yet the price lies on the floor—this divergence is exactly what traders should be watching.
When you open ETH's candlestick chart, you probably have the same question: $2,730, still 45% below last year's high, yet the money on-chain keeps piling up. DeFi locked $53.6 billion, stablecoins $146 billion, both more than 8 times that of Solana. Money votes with its feet to live on Ethereum, but the price hasn't moved. This isn't illogical; it's an unfulfilled expectation gap.
Let's clarify the macro layer first. With the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.3%, borrowing costs are ridiculously high, and non-yielding assets are all being pressed down. But ETH holds a card that BTC and gold don't: 3–5% staking yields, with over a third of the entire ETH supply locked to earn interest. Simply put, holding ETH pays a "salary," while holding BTC relies purely on appreciation. In a rate-hiking cycle, this is its confidence to resist declines. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls will decide whether to raise rates in October; this is the only short-term variable. It's better to wait for the data before making a move.
On-chain, there's a painful truth. L2 daily transaction volume has already surpassed the mainnet, with Base alone accounting for nearly half of the locked value—sounds great, right? But Base's sequencer earned over $60 million in the first half of the year, and Arbitrum made $35 million—all pocketed by Coinbase and Offchain Labs, with zero distributed to ETH holders. L2s are working for Ethereum, but the wages aren't paid to ETH holders. This is the biggest long-term valuation hurdle for ETH; bulls shouldn't pretend not to see it.
Regarding the public chain competition, don't be intimidated by Solana's transaction volume. In the past 30 days, its DEX handled $81 billion, twice that of Ethereum mainnet. But think about it: a Solana transaction costs $0.00025, Ethereum mainnet $0.1–0.3. The same amount of money can be churned hundreds or thousands of times on Solana; it's no surprise the volume is large. But what about real value locked? TVL, stablecoins, RWA—Ethereum is 8–10 times larger. One bets on "how fast money moves," the other bets on "where money stays"—in a bear market, the money that stays is the real money.
So the conclusion is simple: ETH is currently priced by sentiment, not fundamentals. The trigger is on the table: if tonight's nonfarm payrolls cool down the expectation for a rate hike in October, combined with ETF inflows resuming (Citibank just raised its target price to 3,028), the catch-up rally will naturally follow. Watch only two levels: 2,600—if lost, don't talk about a reversal; 2,805—only after passing this is the first door truly opened.ETH has actually long been unable to hold this position.
Now it looks more like it's repeatedly dragging out time and sweeping liquidity at a high level, rather than showing true strength. Most likely, there will be another relatively sharp drop later. The real question is not whether it will fall, but—
whether the bears can endure until that big crash.
Many times, even if the direction is right, the loss comes down to timing.
Patience is harder than judgment. $ETH #ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700, and the privacy sector's capital inflow often drives mainstream DEX leaders like UNI to catch up. I judge UNI to still be bullish in the short term, but discipline comes first. Price is 9.112, up 3.7% in 24h, high at 9.304, low at 8.719, with a turnover of 18.11 million; funding rate -0.0002% indicates bulls are not crowded, open interest 5.728 million, top 10 bid-ask ratio 1.21, buyers dominate. 1-hour rise is only -1.81% from the high, 4-hour distance from low is 47.18%, trend is clear but chasing highs is risky. Strategy: place long orders on pullback to 8.865, stop loss at 8.573, target 9.407; if volume breaks 9.352, lightly add positions, stop loss 9.108, target 9.608. Position size no more than 20%, reduce by half at target, decisively exit if stop loss is hit.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$UNI#ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700
#ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700 $UNI Hello brothers and sisters, I am Dr. Bi. Wow, BTC directly surged to 86000 today, up more than 2% in 24 hours, and all the shorts across the network got liquidated so badly their moms wouldn't recognize them. Just yesterday it was stuck at 84800, and today it exploded with a big bullish candle, replaying the script of a double squeeze on both longs and shorts.
Brothers, this rebound is backed by the US Treasury yield falling from the high of 5.34% down to 5.21%, finally releasing the hand that was holding BTC back from rising. Plus, BTC ETF has seen net inflows again, and institutions are starting to bottom-fish.
I think tonight's non-farm payrolls are key.
The expectation is an increase of 84,000 jobs, down from the previous 162,000. If the data is really this weak, rate cut expectations will heat up, and BTC will directly charge to the previous high of 87300.
But if the data beats expectations, 86000 will be a false breakout, and it will have to drop back to 84000. Don't chase longs or shorts before the data comes out; wait for it to land and then follow.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Hard mode is the mode of losing money.
Lost money again today.
Those who know me well know that I've been bearish recently.
Today, a big bullish candle caused me to suffer a relatively large pullback.
Still, my position was a bit too heavy.
In a volatile range, you shouldn't take such heavy positions.
I bought too many targets.
I should have focused on arbitrage in the volatile range with BTC and ETH.
Sometimes, I even turned short-term trades into long-term ones.
Originally, I had some decent profits,
but I chose to let it ride and keep holding.
Holding on like that caused me to stop loss and go back.
Summary:
1. Since it's a disorderly oscillation mode, you should take profits when it reaches a certain point. Since it's an oscillation mode, you should trade according to oscillation methods, not try to compound profits when you already have gains.
2. I still lack enough experience with the current market, and not firmly taking profits shows a lack of confidence in my experience.
3. I analyzed ETF fund flows yesterday; currently, there is no significant outflow. Without major news, if the fund side remains stable (ETF funds have not significantly outflowed), one should decisively stand with the fund side. Funds are the fundamental logic for judging market development, not technicals or news.
4. The large-scale trend is still bullish, but I've been bearish recently. With the uptrend line repeatedly tested, I should decisively go long and try, rather than stubbornly staying bearish.
5. The longer you probe within a small oscillation range, the more terrifying the breakout will be when the market breaks out to either side."Big Brother Maji 161 Million: Betting on the Main Line, Not Playing with Margins"
Big Brother Maji's position update: $161 million, with the core fully invested in BTC and ETH. Small coins are just embellishments; the winning hand is still in the two major mainstreams.
BTC: 40X full position long, 546 coins, entry at 84548.90, liquidation set down to 75542. Leverage is high, but the buffer is deep enough, specifically used to withstand sharp spikes around the non-farm payroll release.
ETH: 25X full position long, 34,000 coins, largest volume, contributing the main unrealized profit, strong liquidation line pressed to 2550, allowing ample time for volatility digestion, serving as the ballast of the entire portfolio.
HYPE accounts for only a small part, more like a sentiment position, not affecting the overall situation.
The strategy is very clear: heavy positions anchored on the main line, gradient leverage to play macro, small positions to test sentiment coins. In big market windows, main force chips are never placed on marginal targets. BTC for elasticity, ETH as the bottom support, small positions to catch heat.
But be clear: 40X and 25X full positions are still extremely high risk. The liquidation price looks far, but under extreme liquidity during non-farm payroll, anything can happen. He has backup positions to add, you don't, so don't blindly follow.
$BTC $ETH #NonFarm #PositionManagementAfter a surge, NEAR quickly pulled back, dropping to around $4.70, a retracement of over 14% from the intraday high, with short-term sentiment clearly cooling down.
This looks more like profit-taking after a rise rather than a deterioration in fundamentals: AI narratives, ecosystem progress, and spot ETF expectations had already attracted funds in advance, and the positive factors have been fully priced in, so short-term traders naturally pull back.
Looking downwards, $4.70 is the first key level to watch; if it doesn't hold, then watch $4.50 or even $4.20; looking upwards, the $5 round number is the key resistance—only if it reclaims that can we talk about $5.30–$5.50.
My view is simple: how much it falls in a day is not important; the key is whether the $4.70 level can hold the buying pressure. A volume-backed break below means earlier entrants are exiting; if it holds, it could be an opportunity for mid-term capital. $NEARIf the new US Senate crypto tax bill ADAPT is implemented, it will tighten the tax pathways for institutions participating in the crypto market. In the short term, the sentiment for mid-to-small cap coins like BSB is bearish, and I judge the rebound strength to be limited. Current price is 0.10068, down 1.3%, with a trading volume of 658,000, and a funding rate of 0.0050% which is still positive. Open interest is 11.645 million coins, longs are crowded but the top ten buy orders are 2,382 versus 1,155 sell orders, a ratio of 2.06, indicating a clear short-term bottom support. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but the price has fallen 11.65% from the 4-hour high. Resistance is at 0.10385 above, and key support is at 0.09875 below. It is recommended to lightly short near 0.10295 with a stop loss at 0.10425 and a target of 0.09895; if it pulls back to 0.09885 and stabilizes, a short-term long position can be taken with a stop loss at 0.09765 and a target of 0.10195. Position size should not exceed 20%. The bill news can easily cause spikes, so set stop losses strictly.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BSB#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $BSB October 2 $SOL: surged to 123 then got pushed back, tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls will decide
OKEx currently reports $119–120, 24h +1.5%, intraday 116.3–123.8. Yesterday it once surged to 123.76 but was pushed back below 120 — $119.90 is the previous breakout confirmation level; if it can't hold above, bulls are just fooling themselves
Spot ETF net inflow in September was $271 million, the strongest in 10 months; September 26 single-day record of $86.6 million
September application revenue $180 million, a nine-month high, accounting for 32% of total chain revenue
Alpenglow has been successfully run on devnet, finality reduced from 12 seconds to under 100 milliseconds
60-day cumulative increase +70%, steadily above the 20-day EMA (112.5)
But three thorns remain
① RSI has reached 72, technically overbought, needs a pullback to catch breath
② BTC dominance rose to 58.6%, altcoins are being siphoned off
③ Whales are unlocking staked tokens and transferring to exchanges, selling pressure is on the way; long-short ratio 1.73 leans bullish, dense liquidation zones at 116–117
Key levels
Support: 116.3 → 115.5 → if broken, look at 112.5
Resistance: 120 → 123.8 / 124.9
In short: Analysts generally expect it to first retrace to 110–112 for a washout before surging to 150; tonight at 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls is the starting gun #Risk of US-Iran escalation rises again, Brent crude returns to $100 Bro, Brent crude has broken $100 again.
Trump said the Iranian nuclear threat disappeared overnight, then turned around and said the peace plan is insufficient and did not rule out resuming military action. The US is negotiating while simultaneously deploying Patriot air defense systems to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Iran is also not backing down, saying they are willing to talk but you are still attacking us during negotiations.
No one trusts anyone in this situation. The December Brent contract has directly climbed back above $100.
Oil prices breaking $100 is not good for us. Inflation expectations rise again, the Fed dares not ease, and rate hike pressure continues. US Treasury yields have reached 5.27%, funds are being drawn away by risk-free returns, and Bitcoin is being suppressed around 83,000.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls report is also coming out, with double variables overlapping, market volatility will not be small. Don't bet on direction, control your position size well. Hold your low-position chips firmly, and if you are empty-handed, wait for the data to land. Save your bullets, don't get swept out. Stay steady. $CL $BTC $ZEC The US Senate has introduced the new crypto tax bill ADAPT, which may suppress market risk appetite in the short term. CL, as a highly volatile asset, is the first to be affected. I judge that the correction is not over. The price fell from the 24h high of 93.66 to 89.98, down 2.6%, with a turnover of 17.038 million. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both downward, having retraced 10.36% from the 4h high. The order book's top 10 bid-ask strength ratio is 0.99, with selling pressure slightly dominant; the funding rate is zero, with 400,000 positions open. Bulls have not panicked but have limited support. Strategically, lightly short near 91.35 with a stop loss at 93.12 and a target of 87.65; if it stabilizes near 87.42, consider a short-term long with a stop loss at 86.28 and a target of 89.15. Single position size should not exceed 5%, exit immediately if stop loss is hit, do not hold losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$CL#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $CL SEC Chairman Atkins is promoting clearer rules for on-chain fundraising, which constitutes a medium-term positive for compliance narrative targets like MMT, but I judge that the short-term market will still focus on technical correction, and the news has not yet translated into incremental buying.
A slight drop of 1.1% in 24 hours to 0.1858, with a high of 0.1921 and a low of 0.1825, and a turnover of 713,000 showing light activity. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, having risen 49.36% from the 4-hour low, but approaching previous high resistance. The order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.11, with buyers slightly dominant; the funding rate of 0.0050% is neutral, with an open interest of 8.767 million coin-margined contracts, and sentiment is cautiously bullish.
In terms of operation, lightly buy on a pullback to 0.1827, with a stop loss at 0.1793 and a target of 0.1923; if there is a volume breakout above 0.1921, increase the position and move the stop loss up to 0.1877. Keep the position size within 20%, and decisively exit if the stop loss is breached.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. —
$MMT#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $MMT #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化，监管松绑预期升温，SNDK作为链上资产直接受益，我倾向短线偏多但需防回踩。价格现报1792.1，日内微涨1.1%，正逼近1801.9高点，4小时距高仅5.52%显示上行结构未破；但前10档买卖比0.43、卖单250压过买单108，且资金费率0.0000%、持仓4.4万，情绪偏谨慎。策略：回踩1748.5挂多，止损1702.3，目标1806.7；若放量破1801.9可追多至1835.4，仓位不超两成。
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。——
$SNDK#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $SNDK #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
The US September non-farm payrolls will be released tonight at 20:30, with an expected increase of 84,000 to 85,000, significantly slowing compared to August's 162,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Initial jobless claims are 197,000, below expectations, indicating the job market has not collapsed. But Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson just commented that recent market interest rate rises may require more time and data to determine whether to adjust rates. Once this statement came out, market bets on a rate hike in October dropped again.
Data drives BTC movement
If non-farm payrolls are below 70,000, signaling clear employment weakness, an October rate hike is basically ruled out, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to fall, giving BTC a chance to continue rebounding and test 86,000 to 87,000. If data is between 80,000 and 100,000, meeting expectations, market reaction will be mild, and BTC will likely fluctuate between 84,000 and 86,000. If data is strong above 130,000, rate hike expectations will heat up again, putting pressure on BTC to retest 82,000 or even 81,000.
The same logic applies to gold
Weak non-farm payrolls will cause gold to rebound and test above 4,200. Strong non-farm payrolls will push gold down to below 4,130 or even 4,100.
Don't bet on the data in trading
BTC has risen 2.43% now, and market sentiment is optimistic, but non-farm payrolls are a random variable; guessing right is luck, guessing wrong is tuition.
$BTC $ETH $XAUT In the early morning, $BTC surged close to 86000, only to be knocked back to the original position by a bearish candle.
Where did this money come from:
$102 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours.
Long positions buried $43.03 million, short positions buried $59.59 million.
How is this number calculated:
Both sides were swept, indicating the price first went up then down.
Those chasing the breakout were sold right after entering, and the shorts were pulled back just as they were confident.
Some call this a long-short double kill.
Simply put, the candlestick didn’t move, but the positions changed hands.
$ETH saw $64.84 million liquidated, also taking hits on both sides.
The upward structure remains intact, that’s true.
But structure is structure, positions are positions—two different things.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC $ETH Earnings report observer focuses on Micron raising guidance and strengthening storage demand; this kind of macro tailwind often drives risk appetite in the crypto market. KAITO has slightly strengthened today. I judge the short-term bias to be bullish but chasing the high carries considerable risk.
Current price 0.3528, 24h up 2.3%, high 0.3599, low 0.3338, trading volume 18.831 million. Both 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but still 4.26% below the 4-hour high. Order book buy/sell ratio is 0.77, with slightly heavier selling pressure. Funding rate is 0.0050%, relatively neutral. Open interest is 11.752 million, sentiment not overheated yet.
Strategy: lightly buy on pullback near 0.3472, stop loss at 0.3385, target 0.3621; if volume breaks through 0.3613, add position and move stop loss up to 0.3526. Keep position size within 20%, single loss not exceeding 1.5% of total capital.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$KAITO#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 $KAITO The Glamsterdam bug bounty has launched, indicating that specifications must also undergo adversarial testing.
The Ethereum bug bounty program has included the Glamsterdam specification and related EIPs within its scope. Client implementations will qualify after compatibility versions are confirmed. The purpose of the bounty is not just to pay those who find bugs, but to publicly invite external researchers to test upgrades from an attacker’s perspective: whether state pricing can be bypassed, if there are abnormal paths at the ePBS boundary, and whether different clients diverge under extreme inputs. Internal testing excels at verifying expected flows, while external adversarial testing is more likely to find combinations the team did not anticipate. Bounties do not prove code is bug-free, nor can they replace audits, fuzz testing, and multi-client rehearsals. For the long-term security of $ETH, what matters is that issues are reported and fixed before the mainnet carries real value. A mature protocol builds trust not by claiming perfection, but by continuously exposing assumptions, rewarding skepticism, and maintaining a traceable repair process.
Whether the bounty is effective depends on whether reports can be promptly classified, reproduced, and patched. The amount is just the entry point; processing capability determines whether vulnerabilities truly leave the system.
Security culture is not about post-incident reviews, but about providing clear channels and sufficient incentives for those who find problems before incidents occur. The $80.7 million ETH position held by the whale over the past four hours is no joke. Along with the cumulative $32.41 million position since September 2, with an average price of 2671.25, it has been fully leveraged into Aave as collateral. This operation involves both leverage and borrowing, indicating that large capital has a clear judgment on the current range. The price at 2739.64 is close to the liquidation peak of 2736.9, with dense liquidation accumulation near 2730 below, so both short-term bulls and bears need to be cautious.
RSI is already overbought, and the MACD golden cross continues upward. After the moving average breakthrough, the trend remains, but spot ETF data is very fragmented: Bitcoin has a net inflow of 103 million, while Ethereum has a net outflow of 55.37 million, indicating that institutional funds have not truly followed ETH in this wave; it is entirely the on-chain whales holding the flag.
The order reminder is blasting through the headphones; if this order isn't sent now, it will timeout.
Strategically, buying on the pullback to the upper edge of the liquidation accumulation between 2728 and 2732 is possible, with a stop loss at 2714 and a target of 2770; a breakout looks toward 2805. If volume breaks below 2725, liquidation will accelerate, and a short position targets 2708 to 2700.
$ETH
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
@OKX星球 The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman warns that AI construction is bringing new inflationary pressures, which may delay the pace of interest rate cuts and suppress risk appetite. SLX is under short-term pressure but remains in an upward structure on the four-hour level. I tend to believe there will still be a rally after a pullback.
The divergence lies precisely between cycles: a one-hour downtrend, falling 5.91% from the high, while the four-hour is rising 9.58% from the low. The price is stuck at 0.06357, with a 24h increase of only 1.8%, a high of 0.06439, a low of 0.06193, and a moderate volume of 2.604 million. The top 10 buy and sell orders are each 13,000, with a strength ratio of 1.00. The funding rate is 0.0050%, neutral to slightly bullish, and open interest at 28.381 million shows unresolved divergence.
Strategically, lightly buy on a pullback near 0.06185, with a stop loss at 0.06065 and a target of 0.06475; if volume breaks above 0.06455, then chase the long position, with a stop loss at 0.06315 and a target of 0.06685. Position size should not exceed 20%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SLX #SEC Chairman Atkins says will promote clearer on-chain fundraising rules
#美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力 $SLX Big BTC has started to rise again, after falling for a long time it just can't go down further!
Brothers, is the forced liquidation above 90,000 really safe?
If it's not safe, I'll add some more margin.
I still firmly believe it won't take off directly,
there's no reason for that.
Could it be that this time I'm really going to fall?
The macro conditions are so bad now,
could it be that because the rate hike expectations for October have dropped,
it's about to take off?
But what about rate hikes in November and December?
This time I've decided to hold on,
I won't close my short positions.
Can it still break below 80,000, brothers?
Are there any brothers still shorting?
Let's discuss, check my pinned post.
$ETH #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Maji big boss's latest position: total exposure 147 million, no reversal or liquidation, instead took a strong rebound. "Mainstream ballast + thematic game" strategy again withstood the shakeout.
Breaking down the three positions: BTC 450 coins, 40x leverage, base position firmly held, opened at 84548.60, floating profit +923,500, liquidation line set at 68320.98, safety margin thick—40x leverage willing to burn funding fees to bet on a major upward move; ETH 32,000 coins, 25x leverage, the true pillar of the account, floating profit +1,949,400, cost 2679.48, defense 2484.12, steadily repairing and expanding fault tolerance, also holding firm
HYPE's confidence; HYPE 209,000 coins, 10x leverage, floating loss cut from over 600,000 to -163,800, nice recovery, no panic selling, using restrained leverage to wait for the turning point.
In short, profits made from BTC and ETH are slowly nurturing this still-unawakened beast HYPE. $BTC #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力，这或延缓降息节奏，对以太坊等风险资产构成中期压制，但短线仍由资金面主导，我倾向区间偏多。
Ethereum is currently at 2737.16, up 2.3% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 24.777 million, showing moderate momentum. The 4-hour distance from the low is 14.42%, indicating a bullish structure, and the 1-hour distance from the high is -0.18%, approaching resistance at 2747.59; the funding rate of 0.0076% is slightly high but not extreme, with an open interest of 621,000 showing cautious bullish sentiment, and the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.36, favoring buyers.
A breakout above 2748.55 allows for light long positions, targeting 2786.3 with a stop loss at 2721.4; if it falls back to 2688.7, consider going long, targeting 2733.5 with a stop loss at 2664.2. Single trade risk should be controlled within 2% of total capital.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$ETH #SEC Chair Atkins says will promote clearer on-chain fundraising rules
#美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力 $ETH The ONDO partnership is signed, the next step is the key
For this $ONDO collaboration in South Korea, I will continue to follow up
The memorandum with Kakaopay Securities discusses overseas distribution and tokenization of Korean stocks
There is potential in this direction, but the timeline for product commercialization is not yet decided
Don’t rush to factor future income in yet
The afternoon price is around 0.5058, down 7.42% over the past seven days; news and market trends haven’t aligned yet
What I want to see next is how custody, issuance, and redemption will be implemented
Only when the cooperation intention turns into an actual product can this logic be considered a step forward
$SOL is showing some energy today
At midday it reported 123.19, up 2.36% in 24 hours, but only up 1.09% in the past seven days
For now, I’m watching 125 as a key observation point
If it can close above that for several consecutive hours and then retest without falling below, the continuation chance is more promising
Conversely, if it falls back near 120, a reassessment is needed
Currently, I lean toward expecting a continued rebound but won’t set targets too far ahead yet
$DOGE is still lacking some momentum
In the afternoon it’s around 0.0964, down 2.28% over the past seven days
0.10 looks close but actually needs about a 3.7% rise
I will watch this round number level but won’t prematurely treat it as a breakout just because it’s near
What I really want to see is whether there are buyers continuing to step in after it goes up
For now, watch more and act less; don’t mistake temporary excitement for sustained buying pressure Even if you can see market sentiment, you can't always make the right choice. For example, in the early morning, we entered a short position at the old divergence point, and after being stopped out, the market continued to follow the sentiment for a long stretch. The stop loss was barely useful, preventing further losses.
The market changes rapidly and is uncontrollable; you can only try to control the parts that can be controlled and adjust as much as possible. The positions you can use to adjust are the expectations of the dominant sides on both sides of different divergence points. You may choose not to use them, but you must understand them. Being able to see and making the right decision are two different things, and the degree to which you can see is also the dividing line between different traders' skill levels.The nonfarm payroll numbers haven’t even arrived yet, but crypto already feels like it has entered waiting mode. Capital is sitting on the sidelines, volatility is compressed, and both bulls and bears appear to be waiting for tonight’s macro catalyst to decide the next direction. $BTC — 83,962 | -0.20% BTC’s decline looks insignificant on the surface, but the pressure underneath is worth watching. U.S. Treasury yields have climbed toward 5.3%, putting pressure on the risk-on momentum that follow📜 The SEC just proposed rules letting investment advisers and regulated funds custody crypto
That's not a headline most people expected this cycle
If it goes through, the door opens for a wave of institutional money that's been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a clear custody path $BTC
Advisers can't touch what they can't legally hold — this is that wall coming down, at least in proposal form
Nothing's final yet, and the comment period could change the shape of it
$ETH #BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
This data is quite interesting; prices are rising, but money is flowing out—a typical volume-price divergence.
Let's look at last night's data: after Bitcoin spot ETFs crazily attracted $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive days, they started to turn on September 30, with net outflows totaling $173 million over two days. Ethereum was even earlier to retreat, with net outflows for three consecutive days, including $55.4 million on October 1 alone. Coinbase's report also states that Bitcoin's recent profit-taking scale has hit a yearly high.
So what impact does this have on our crypto circle? I'll break it down into two layers.
First layer: short-term sentiment should be questioned. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rose by two to three percent today, but ETF funds are withdrawing. This indicates that this rally is most likely driven by on-exchange funds pushing prices up, taking advantage of sentiment recovery to sell off, rather than fresh external capital rushing in. Institutions aren't foolish; before the non-farm payroll data is released, they prefer to secure profits.
Second layer: if the capital side can't hold, the market will likely be volatile. ETFs are one of the core drivers of this rally, but now this driver is not only weakening but also leaking money. Bitcoin has been oscillating mainly because there isn't enough external liquidity.
Here's my view.
Wait for tonight's non-farm payroll data release to see if ETF funds can turn positive again—that will be the real direction. What do you think?
$BTC $ETH The NEAR ecosystem protocol attack dragged down altcoin sentiment, but $WLD bucked the trend with an independent rally, as funds are migrating from damaged assets to high-liquidity varieties. I judge this rebound to be led by bulls, but caution is needed when chasing highs.
Current price is 0.5343, up 2.8% in 24 hours, with a turnover of 323 million. The funding rate of 0.01% indicates mild payment by bulls. Both 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but still 7.61% below the 4-hour high, indicating that the overhead resistance has not been fully absorbed. The order book buy/sell ratio is 1.02, with buy orders at 198,000 slightly outweighing sell orders at 194,000. Open interest is 68.04 million coin-based contracts, showing a tense battle between bulls and bears.
Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback to 0.5178 with a stop loss at 0.4986 and a target of 0.5623; if volume breaks above 0.5434, chase longs with a stop loss at 0.5289 and a target of 0.5785. Keep position size under 20%, and avoid heavy positions before the funding rate turns negative.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$WLD#NEAR生态协议遭攻击致币价下跌近10%
#NEAR生态协议遭攻击致币价下跌近10% $WLD Isn't it the non-farm payrolls? Why is it still pulling up? Damn#BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
$BTC and $ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously experiencing outflows. Don’t pretend you don’t see this signal — it’s not an issue with a single coin, but a joint withdrawal of “compliant capital inflows,” indicating institutions are retreating while fighting, and marginal buying is drying up.
But a reminder: ETF outflows ≠ end of the bull market. It’s more like an "overheat correction": earlier rate cut expectations, quarter-end portfolio adjustments, and pre-nonfarm risk aversion all combined, causing short-term funds to take profits first.
What really matters is continuous multi-day net outflows + price breakdown + stablecoins not expanding their supply; only then is mid-term cooling confirmed.
Currently:
Single-day or two-to-three-day outflows: deleveraging, don’t panic sell;
BTC holds weekly support, ETH doesn’t break key support: buy the dip on sharp drops, don’t chase shorts;
If US stock risk appetite drops again and the dollar strengthens: ETF selling pressure will increase, don’t rush to "catch a falling knife."
The mid-term scenario hasn’t changed: the big cycle remains, but the "blindly rising" phase is over; what follows is a high-volatility slow bull or range-bound oscillation.
In short: surviving is more important than rushing ahead.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 OpenAI is reportedly seeking at least $30 billion in funding, targeting a pre-money valuation of about $1.4 trillion, with discussions still in the early stages. Reading this, the first thing I think of is dilution ratio: assuming all ordinary shares are issued at the same price without special terms, $30 billion would account for about 2.1% of the post-financing valuation.
This is just a simplified calculation and should not be taken as the actual equity structure. But it explains why the company wants to maintain a high valuation: raising the same $30 billion, the higher the valuation, the smaller the proportion original shareholders need to give up. Behind that dazzling number in the financing news, there are very concrete interests arranged.
I acknowledge OpenAI's ability to turn its product into a large-scale business and understand that continued expansion requires capital. However, the financing price mainly reflects the terms both buyers and sellers are willing to accept in this round, and it does not prove that all shares can be liquidated at this price at any time.
For investors continuing to bet, they also need to assess how much business growth the new funds can bring and under what environment the next round of financing will occur. The willingness to pay today and the ability to exit smoothly years later are two different judgments.
AI valuations are getting bigger, which is indeed exciting but also a bit unsettling. When we discuss companies, we gradually spend more time guessing the next round's price and less time asking about the returns on new investments. How much sustainable revenue $30 billion can actually buy, I think, is more worth pursuing than the ranking on the valuation list.
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 🔷 Tokenized assets: $34.5B
• Tokenized markets show different patterns than traditional ones
• As of August 31: $34.5B tokenized RWA (140% YoY growth)
• Tokenized stocks: 81% individual stocks, 19% ETFs
• $4.43B (+390%), but only 0.0029% of the global stock market ($151.9T)
• Forecast: ~$349B by 2030
• SEC allowed limited trading (September 17)
• NYSE and Blockchain.com plan a platform
$AAPL $NVDA $TSLA First time leading trades, ended up with a loss!!! Previously made a profit of 8000, but after starting to lead trades, lost 4000 dollars. I want to apologize to all the brothers and sisters who followed my trades before. I've summarized a few issues: first, I was too focused on the win rate; second, I took more aggressive positions after losing money; third, my mindset hasn't adjusted yet. I'll make some adjustments before leading everyone to recover~ For now, please don't follow me~ $SOL $ETH $BTC #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 $XRP — Third straight monthly gain
July +2%, August +30%, September +7.95%. Total Q3 return: +43%.
First time XRP has closed all three months of a quarter in the green.
Exchange supply dropped from 12.9B to 11B XRP since April.
$XRP
#USJobsDataToday
#BTCETHETFOutflows 🔥 "Crypto Trio Today's Business Status Report"
Let's start with the leader. $BTC is currently holding steady at $86,555, up 3.4% in 24 hours. Institutional funds are slowly flowing in through the ETF channel, and Citibank's research report has raised the 12-month target to $113,000. But don't get full on the "target price pie"—before that day comes, it will first wander back and forth between $85,000 and $87,000, like a man who doesn't want to go home after work but is just pacing downstairs.
Second brother $ETH is at $2,734, up 1.7%, quietly steady. The technicals are intact, moving averages are stable, the only issue is a lack of catalyst. The SEC just proposed a new custody regulation, leaving a door open for self-custody and clarifying institutional participation paths, but it still needs a 60-day comment period to take effect. So ETH isn't struggling now; it's just waiting for "that call"—the day it breaks above $2,800 with volume, then the "ETH catching up" talk in the group will shift from mysticism to consensus.
Third brother $SOL is at $123.3, up 3.8%, +22.8% in 30 days, the most active in the market. Its strength and weakness are the same: high volatility. In a bull market, it treats you to milk tea; in a pullback, it crushes your milk tea cup. Don't chase it too hard at this level, set your take-profit orders well, and wait for it to pull back before rekindling the relationship.
A quick macro note: The 10-year US Treasury yield just dropped from 5.34% back to around 5.25%. Fed's Bowman said there's no rush to change rates this year, which eased the market somewhat. But if tonight's nonfarm payrolls don't come out, the relief is only half-hearted—the other half is reserved for fear of a data shock. It's over, it's over, got liquidated again! I'm on the path of daily liquidations, I'm such an idiot!
Another big bullish candle for $CT, mainly because the hype is picking up now. New coins usually have high hype, and now that the price has surged so much, the hype is even higher, which will only attract more short sellers. Plus, the market cap is small, so it's normal for the price to multiply several times easily!
The short positions at $CT 0.4-0.5 are probably going to be squeezed out. Once the liquidity from these traders bursts, the price could reach as high as 0.68!This pottery figurine buried just a few inches below the surface is by no means a significant archaeological find, but merely a funerary tile about to shatter.
Clearing away the surface dust on the $SUI candlestick chart, the upper Bollinger Band at 1.2080 looks like a heavily weathered burial mound—seemingly towering, but inside it has long been hollowed out by greedy tomb raiders. The so-called recovery before us has been recorded countless times in historical records, merely an illusory last glow before the dynasty's collapse.
There is nothing new under the sun; every surge at the end of a strong bow ultimately cannot escape the fate of being buried by yellow sand. The RSI lingers in the moderate quagmire at 52.5, lacking the grandeur of a true empire rising, clearly a final desperate struggle by the buyers. Rather than believing those fabricated positive bamboo slips, it is better to trust the layers of bones and debris in the stratigraphy.
As someone who has pored over millennia-old fragments, I only trust the measure of discipline. According to plan, I set a probe here, awaiting the inevitable collapse of the strata.
- Target: $SUI 🔴
- Entry: 1.1820 - 1.1950
- TP1: 1.1415
- TP2: 1.1100
- SL: 1.2150
History never forgives those who stubbornly cling to the past; time will harvest all arrogance.🏛️
#CryptoEarningsPressureShort Market Update
$BTC — $83,448. Holding 85K range while stocks sell off on surging yields.
Stocks: S&P 500 down 0.21%. 10-year yield at 5.34%, highest since 2002.
The read: Bitcoin isn't following equities down. Liquidity rotation is happening.
#BTCETHETFOutflows
#StrategyBuys1665BTC It's me who has a narrow mindset and low awareness; I've taken profits several times, yet it keeps rising. When the price drops and I face losses, I hold on firmly, but when the price rises and I make profits, I can't hold on.$BTC Approaching Previous High, Battle at the Gate
Current price 85914, bulldozing up from the bottom at 57800, the highest has already touched 86914, just one step away from the previous high of 87399!
Support at 78625. Up 36% in 90 days, the big trend is solidly bullish. As long as it doesn't break below 78000, hold steady and play dead. If you want to get in, don't chase at 86000, wait for a pullback near 83000 to buy.
$PUMP Explosive Surge, Beware of Risks
Current price 0.006016, surged 9.04% today! Up 2.8 times in 90 days, this thing is basically a money printer.
Current price is way, way above the support line! Profit-taking is extremely abundant, so absolutely do not chase the high and catch a falling knife now. If you hold spot, take profits in batches on rallies to lock in gains!
$LTC Veteran Mainstream Relay, Strong Rebound
Current price 70.07, up 4.56% today. Previously pulled back from 75, now has stubbornly climbed back above 70.
Old Litecoin’s catch-up rally is fierce. If it holds above 70, it will likely test the previous high of 75. A pullback to 66-68 is a buying opportunity; cut losses if it breaks below 60.
The market is oscillating at a high level with rapid capital rotation. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $UNI This ID perspective:
UNI on the 30-minute level started from the low point of 8.444, forming an upward continuation trend, just completing a central pivot breakout, belonging to the extension phase after the third buy. Entry: wait for a secondary level pullback that does not break below the central pivot ZG, then enter again when a bottom fractal signal appears; Stop loss: placed below the central pivot ZD.
Chan Theory Structure
The purple box is the 30-minute core central pivot, with ZG around 9.00 and ZD around 8.70. After the low of 8.444 bottomed, the market oscillated repeatedly within the purple central pivot range, extending sideways. This round of upward rally broke away from the central pivot, surging to 9.307. As long as the pullback does not fall back into the central pivot, the upward structure can continue; if the price falls back into the central pivot range, the trend returns to consolidation; once it breaks below the starting low of 8.444, this upward structure is destroyed.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
There was volume expansion during the breakout of the central pivot, with sufficient buying demand pushing the price quickly up to 9.307. During the subsequent pullback phase, volume noticeably contracted, and no large-scale selling pressure distribution appeared. If there is another upward attack later, volume expansion is needed to confirm demand; a volume-contracted rally is prone to stagnation and pullback.
Core Observation
Focus on the support strength at the upper edge of the 9.00 central pivot. If the pullback holds above ZG, the bulls continue upward; if it falls directly into the central pivot range, the validity of this breakout is questionable. The resistance above is the previous high at 9.307; only a volume breakout can open new upward space. The strength of $HYPE fundamentally depends on whether trading activity and platform revenue can continuously translate into token value. The market loves to reward high growth with a premium but is also quick to turn negative when growth slows. I tend to follow the trend and be bullish, but I don't chase uncontrolled rallies; only sustained volume and a stable pullback justify adding positions, while a volume-driven break below the previous high means it's time to stop.$BTC current price is 85886.4, I am your master.
The daily chart is still in a strong zone, but after the rally, it failed to hold the new high and started to consolidate with high-level churning. This wave has been pulling up all the way, and many who got off halfway have completely lost their mindset, watching the market surge but afraid to chase and also afraid of missing out, causing internal conflict.
The market looks strong, but the risks are also obvious. The daily RSI is already at a high level, and pushing higher requires more capital to take over. If the follow-up incremental funds can't keep up, a deep pullback and shakeout is likely.
Currently, the market's long and short positions are roughly balanced, unlike a few days ago when it was one-sided, indicating that the divergence has fully emerged. Bulls are holding chips hoping for another push above 87000, while bears are waiting for a round of pullback to crash the market.
Don't be trapped by the market's strength; missing out is not losing money, recklessly chasing is what really sends real money out. At this position, chasing highs has very low cost-effectiveness. It's better to wait for a pullback to confirm support before acting, rather than buying at the peak.
If the bullish force is not exhausted, it will naturally create new highs after the pullback; if it can't withstand the selling pressure, the first wave of decline will be severe. In high-level battles, preserving capital always comes first. Don't bet your entire fortune on the market continuing to surge.
$BTC
#BTC daily chart high-level divergence consolidation
Market observation only, not investment advicePre-Nonfarm Deleveraging: BTC Slightly Stronger, ZEC New Positions Still Holding the Drop
Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate will be announced tonight at 20:30. Deleverage before the data.
BTC is at 84,802, up 1.58%, perpetual positions increased by 4.3%, price and positions rising in sync, short-term bulls still dominant. ZEC is at 1,341, down 5.94%, positions increased by 5.1%, new positions have not stopped selling pressure; 24-hour ZEC long liquidations about $17.25 million, clear risk of high-level pullback. HYPE is at 87.85, down 2.83%, positions decreased by 4.8%, funds are retreating.
OKX smart money sample is small, only for sentiment reference: BTC shorts account for 84.5%, but sample dropped to 14 people, positions reduced by about $1.01 million; ZEC longs and shorts each 4 people, positions reduced by about $780,000; HYPE only 3 people, longs account for 92.8%, weak signal.
Main opportunities still focus on BTC:
- 1-hour close above 85,250 and pullback not breaking, light long trial, stop loss 84,600, target 86,550.
- If close breaks below 84,400, rebound to try short, stop loss 85,050, target 83,100.
- Observe HYPE at 86.40, ZEC at 1,330, consider short if break below and fail to recover.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $ETH is slightly bullish in the short term. It rose 1.76% in 24h, mainly driven by short sellers being forced to cover: short liquidations totaled $17.86 million, three times that of longs. In other words, this rally is not due to new leverage entering, but because bearish positions were squeezed out, easing the resistance above. The options side is also bullish: the put/call volume ratio is only 0.40, clearly favoring calls; DVOL at 49.8 is not high, indicating the market is not pricing in a sharp drop. The fee rate has been slightly positive, which can only be considered background and not a reason. The descending trendline on the chart still presses from above, but it is drawn from previous highs, reflecting the structure before the shorts were cleared. The shorts that were squeezed out this time were exactly those, so the pressure from this line has diminished. Moving averages are in a bullish alignment, supporting the price to push higher; only by holding above the previous high can the space be considered open. Bearish reversal condition: a drop below 2,671.1 would indicate the short squeeze was a one-time fuel with no follow-through, invalidating the bullish view. $CT 15min divergence, should be able to short after confirmation, huge new high, divergence, not sure about the final direction, shorted at 0.61 and exited at 0.59, recovered the liquidation from this morning, this $CT is crazy🔥 I’ve been holding this short from $845 for weeks, and after the latest pullback, the position is finally getting closer to break-even. The $760–$780 zone is the next area I’m watching. If sellers keep control, a deeper move toward $720 could come next. If ZEC reclaims $800+, the short thesis starts looking weaker. One lesson from this trade: patience matters, but risk management matters more. Short squad, stay disciplined. $ZEC $BTC $ETH #ZEC #Crypto #DailyOrbit