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New job creation has clearly slowed down, the unemployment rate is rising, and wage growth is also decelerating. For the market, this not only reduces the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates in October, but more importantly, it further compresses the necessity and room for tightening monetary policy in December and even into 2026. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The market's previous biggest concern of “high interest rates lasting longer” can now breathe a sigh of relief. Weakening employment indicates demand is cooling, and slower wage growth reduces the risk of a wage-inflation spiral. The Federal Reserve fully has the capital to remain patient and does not need to rush into further rate hikes. Overall, this is bearish for the dollar on the asset side, while benefiting U.S. Treasuries, gold, and risk assets. Treasury yields, especially short-term, are expected to decline; gold benefits from expectations of falling real rates and a weaker dollar; U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and high-valuation growth assets may see a recovery in risk appetite. However, it is important to note that if subsequent employment data deteriorates too quickly, market logic could shift from “soft landing easing” to “recession concerns,” so inflation, consumption, and corporate earnings must still be closely monitored. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised July nonfarm payrolls down from +21,000 to -10,000, and August from 162,000 to 133,000, a combined reduction of 60,000 compared to the original figures. Recently, there have indeed been many positive signals, including the SEC Chair’s proposal to promote stock market blockchain adoption, which is a positive sign for Bitcoin. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收Actually, some have opened short positions near 87000 on Bitcoin. You can set a break-even stop profit, meaning either this position exits without loss, or you bet on a double top, with a later pullback to around 74000-70000.Green毛 that night, one big trade covered two small ones completely.
First, look at the doubled $BTC long position: entered at 84,679.5, exited at 86,349.8, gaining nearly 1,670 points along the way. With 100x leverage, 3.89 BTC pocketed 6,287.13 USDT, a return of +190.83%.
$ETH long average price was 2,702.85, closed at 2,687.77, completely opposite direction. 80 ETH, also 100x leverage, lost 1,327.69 USDT, a return of -61.40%. Position opened at 01:37 AM, held until 05:43 AM before giving up and cutting losses.
BTC short was even shorter-lived: opened short at 84,491.7, but price went up, exited at 84,666.1. From 05:53 to 06:02, less than 10 minutes, 5 BTC lost 1,085.29 USDT, -25.69%.
In total, the profitable trade made 6,287 USDT, while the two losing trades totaled about 2,412 USDT loss. The result is indeed big wins and small losses, but the cost was holding 100x leverage all along. Aggressive style, huge exposure, just watch the show, don’t copy it.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly cooled rate hike expectations, but I'm still holding short positions
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000, expected 90,000, a direct surprise. Rate hike expectations dropped sharply, the market got excited, BTC surged to 87,000, ETH also pulled up. But I'm still holding short positions, why? Because the current risks are not in rate hikes, but elsewhere.
$BTC
BTC surged to 87,000, up over 3%, looks strong. But the range from 87,000 to 90,000 is all previous trapped positions, it's not easy to break through at once. The nonfarm surprise is indeed positive, but when the good news is fully priced in, it turns negative. Also, oil prices remain high, the situation in Iran is tense, the Strait of Hormuz can be closed at any time, if oil prices spike, inflation returns, and rate hike expectations rise again. Trump's midterm elections are approaching, policies can change suddenly, uncertainty is high.
$ETH
I'm still holding my short at 2671 on ETH, now around 2750, a small loss. But I'm not worried, ETH is weaker than BTC, strong resistance at 2800 above, it can't break through. ETF funds have been flowing out, the ecosystem has no new stories, price rises just follow the market. The nonfarm positive news has been digested, it should fall.
$ZEC
The privacy coin logic still holds, but this coin is very volatile, nonfarm data has limited impact, mainly speculation by capital. Play with small positions only.
Summary: The nonfarm surprise is positive, but only short-term. The real risks lie in oil prices, Iran situation, and Trump's midterm elections. Without resolving these uncertainties, the market won't trend unilaterally. Holding short positions, wait until the positive news is fully digested before reassessing #ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700 $ZEC $ZEC $ZEC This surge has indeed been fierce, but at this point, it's no longer suitable to blindly chase longs.
After consecutive rallies earlier, short-term profit-taking is very heavy. The current market looks more like a high-level battle between bulls and bears. The key focus next is around 1300; as long as this level holds, the overall bullish structure remains. Only after firmly reclaiming 1400–1410 can there be expectations to challenge previous highs again.
Conversely, if 1300 is broken down with volume, be cautious that this rally may enter a deeper level of correction.
My thinking is simple: the trend hasn't completely broken down yet, but high-level volatility has clearly increased. Now, rather than guessing the top, it's more important to watch key supports and breakout confirmations.
Especially be careful with position sizing in contracts; with ZEC's volatility, a single spike could wipe out high leverage.
This is just my personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. After the non-farm payroll data was released, the initial heat has passed, and the market is starting to return to calm. The short position on BTC futures is likely to recover.
BTC surged to around 87500 this morning but has now retreated to 85400. ETH has been mostly flat, hovering around 2700. SOL is relatively stronger, up just over 2%, but there’s no sign of significant volume.
However, I always feel that this kind of rally driven by macro data bargains usually doesn’t last long. It’s not like an endogenous buying push, but more like a combination of short covering and emotional release.
There’s no FOMC or major data this week; it’s just a digestion week.
What really needs attention is whether BTC can hold above 85K through the weekend. Last week, the selling pressure around 85K was just cleared. If it can’t hold here, the significance of the previous breakout needs to be reassessed.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so don’t chase highs; wait for a better position. I started to suspect that the buyer of 3.75 million HYPE off-platform from Labs might actually be Hyperliquid Strategies
The last cash balance they reported was "only" $294M, but that was a week late, so they very likely now have enough cash (~$330M market cap at announcement, minus any discount they get)
And this explains why they allow their cash balance to increase while continuing to take advantage of the stock issuance program at the prevailing market price (usually preferring to buy HYPE immediately when new shares are issued)$HYPE #AnthropicEyesNovIPO Delisted globally, yet listed on the NYSE. A coin delisted by multiple major exchanges was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August. Grayscale's ZCSH, the world's first privacy coin spot ETF. Banned in over a dozen countries, the EU's MiCA will completely ban it next year, but the US has granted it a license. Only four words to choose privacy. Monero enforces anonymity, $ZEC is visible if you check it. It found a loophole and slipped through. There's no doubt it's the leader in this field $ZEC Following up on my previous article, I bought BTC and ETH during the pullback, and CT bought on the dip. Currently, my account balance is 650U. I'm considering whether to close my position. Can any experts give me some advice? I'm a bit at a loss—when losing, I hold on stubbornly; when winning, I find it hard to hold.During this latest rebound, $BTC pushed above $87,000 while $ETH reclaimed the $2,800 area, with both assets moving closer to their previous highs. $ZEC, however, is still struggling to reclaim $1,350. Compared with the broader market, its relative strength remains noticeably weaker. When an asset leads the market early but starts losing momentum while the broader market continues recovering, that can be an important sign that its trend structure is changing. For now, I’m not looking to close thThe only applicable scenario for reversing positions: when the market suddenly plunges straight down, accompanied by a divergence signal, and the bears rapidly and completely unload. Only when the rebound in such a market is sufficiently certain is it worth reversing positions.
For other declines within a range-bound market, without divergence and not a one-time sharp plunge, do not reverse positions. Range-bound tug-of-war easily leads to mistimed entries and increasingly heavy positions.
Updated trading rules:
✅ Reversing positions is only for scenarios of a straight sharp plunge plus divergence; both conditions must be met to consider acting, if either is missing, abandon reversing.
✅ Defend only at the coldest bottom points; do not reverse in range-bound markets.
✅ If opportunity certainty is low, stay out and observe; avoid repeatedly adding positions or switching long/short during the session.
✅ Standard cold bottom single position limit is 30%, never over-leverage.
✅ Only buy at cold bottom points from straight sharp drops; avoid entering during range-bound or gradual declines.
✅ On the first rebound wave, prioritize halving added positions to lock in profits.
✅ Do not repeatedly buy at the same low point or open both long and short positions simultaneously to prevent position stacking.
✅ For the second and subsequent low points, only observe, avoid heavy positions.
✅ Only one reverse close is allowed per market wave; no further additions after reversing.
✅ Reversing must wait for confirmation of market level and K-line points; if points are not properly hit, do not reverse.
✅ If after entry the market does not rebound and continues to fall, exit immediately; do not hold losing positions.
✅ In high-level range-bound areas, new simultaneous long and short positions are prohibited.
Core: Divergence plus straight sharp plunge, both conditions together form the exclusive entry window for reversing positions. Missing one means no reversal.$ETH daily chart overall maintains an upward channel, with the price consolidating near the high around 2700. After previously surging to 2806, the bullish momentum slowed down, no longer rising rapidly, entering a range-bound tug-of-war phase.
Holding short positions with an average entry price of 2643, the market rebound has caused unrealized losses. The upper Bollinger Band at 2830 acts as strong resistance above, while the middle band at 2621 serves as key support. In the short term, the market is trapped oscillating within this range.
Currently, there is no rush to take action; continue holding positions and wait. Focus on observing the previous high at 2806—if multiple attempts to break through fail and a stagnation candlestick pattern appears, a correction opportunity will arise. $ETH Traders who were waiting for a deeper correction before entering have had a tough time. Each dip has been met with renewed buying, and instead of a sharp retracement, BTC has continued to grind higher. Meanwhile, those waiting for a better entry are still sitting on the sidelines. ETH tells a slightly different story. Compared with BTC, its momentum looks noticeably weaker. In previous rallies, ETH could move with much greater elasticity once momentum arrived. This time, BTC is leading the move,I ended up adding another 7,500 yuan to the account and jumped back into the market. And guess what? I managed to mess up almost immediately. I wanted to open a full-position trade, but I clicked the wrong margin mode and accidentally entered with isolated margin. Within just a few minutes, the position was liquidated. 💀 Honestly, that one was completely on me. The market didn’t even need to beat me — my own rushed operation did the job. I was too eager, didn’t double-check the settings, and paI’m not changing my longer-term view just because of a few failed breakouts. If buying momentum returns and UNI can reclaim $9.30 with convincing volume, the market could start looking very different. For tonight’s U.S. jobs data, I’m watching the reaction rather than assuming a particular outcome. A stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected payroll number could both trigger significant volatility as traders reassess the path of interest rates. For now, patience is the game. $9.30 remains tTonight's non-farm payrolls: the real danger isn't the numbers themselves, but the first candlestick misleading everyone to the same side. Market consensus is roughly an increase of 90,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, but don't just look at the headline.
If employment is weak, and both unemployment rate and wages cool down, US Treasury yields will fall, creating conditions for BTC to continue; if employment is strong or wages heat up again, yields will surge, and a breakout near previous highs is likely to be taken profit from first. The hardest scenario is data divergence, where the first wave is most prone to reversal.
Approach: don't add positions before the release, don't chase in the first 5 to 15 minutes, wait until BTC and US Treasury yields align in direction before managing existing positions. Will you grab the first wave, or wait for the second confirmation? $BTCCan the user advantages of $JUP aggregated trading be transformed into token advantages?
The trading aggregation sector where JUP operates benefits from the active Solana ecosystem. User product usage and token holding are two different needs; it depends on how revenue, governance, and incentives are connected.
If user growth relies on subsidies, and trading and retention decline after subsidies end, the quality of growth needs to be reassessed.Bitcoin’s ETF inflow streak was interrupted on September 30 after nine consecutive days of net inflows. The important point is that this looks more like a cooling of demand than a broad institutional exit. The cumulative inflow reached roughly $3.08B, with the strongest single-day inflow occurring around September 21 at close to $1B. More recently, daily inflows have fallen to only tens of millions, showing that the pace of fresh buying has slowed considerably. Ethereum is showing a slightly difA while ago, I was scrolling through my phone late at night and saw someone showing off their profits, saying $BTC is easy to buy a little and that's enough. I didn't think much at the time, downloaded an app, and jumped in. After buying, I felt uneasy and stared at the screen all night. The next day it went up a little, so I quickly sold. After selling, it kept rising, which made me scratch my head in frustration. Later, a colleague talked about $ETH, saying it's good for long-term holding. I followed the trend and bought some, but it stayed flat for half a month. Every day I opened the app, it was the same. I really couldn't take it and cut my losses. A few days after selling, it moved, and I slapped my thigh. Then I randomly looked into $SOL, bought it, and got stuck. It was stuck for almost two months, with my account showing red every day. The day I broke even, I immediately sold. After selling, it surged again, and I stared at the screen laughing for a long time. Now I don't mess around anymore. I only play with spare money, don't touch contracts, don't borrow money, and don't listen to trading tips. If I make money, I treat myself well; if I lose, I consider it tuition. I check at most twice a day. Being able to sleep well at night is better than anything. This isn't a path for ordinary people to get rich quickly. Just treat it as a high-risk hobby. Don't put your life on the line. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 But a strong daily percentage does not automatically mean a trend is established.
The screenshot shows several ETFs with sizeable gains, particularly xKORU, xINTW and $xMVLL .
The next challenge for buyers is confirmation: holding higher levels, maintaining participation and avoiding a quick reversal.
Momentum gets attention. Confirmation builds the bigger picture.In the past 5 days, Brother Maji has won 10 consecutive trades on PUMP, earning $1.34 million.
A "liquidation king" playing Meme coins, winning 10 rounds in a row, sounds impressive.
But looking at the positions: he holds 33,950 ETH long (92.56 million), 409 BTC long (35.22 million), and 180,000 HYPE long (16.16 million). The three combined total 144 million.
Last week, unrealized profits shrank from 5.8 million to 73,000; this week he recovered 1.34 million through PUMP, then didn’t exit and continued to add to his positions.
He’s not gambling on PUMP, but using small position profits to support large positions. Retail investors take profits and run, or cut losses; he does the opposite—adds on losses and compounds on gains.
The problem isn’t the direction, but the position size being too large. 25x ETH, 40x BTC leverage, any pullback could bring him to the liquidation edge. If ETH drops 5%, that 1.34 million instantly goes to zero or even negative.
He won 10 rounds, but that doesn’t mean he won the market.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$ETH $BTC $HYPE #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 Foresight News quotes community information: The independent product homepage of Sui ecosystem's "superfluid AMM" STEAMM will be deactivated on October 5, 2026, but existing positions can still be accessed through Suilend. Users can withdraw, repay, and exit pools at any time; this is neither an exit scam nor a freeze.
First, understand what STEAMM is: a super liquidity AMM incubated by Suilend that deposits "idle funds" in the pool back into the Suilend lending market to earn secondary yields. It supports three curve types: CPMM, vCPMM, and OMM, and is a key component in Sui DeFi for integrating "lending + swap." After Bluewater acquired Suilend, STEAMM, and SpringSui in June this year, the product line was set for reorganization—the independent steamm.fi style entry will be phased out, and its functions integrated into the Suilend all-in-one interface. This is a routine move following the acquisition, not a crash.$BTC is just like this. When it hit 71, someone told me the non-farm payrolls were good. So what if the non-farm payrolls are good? It's just a worthless piece of news. To be honest, how much can it affect my monthly K-line trend? 😂
This is the big trend, this is the real solid structure.
To put it nicely: how do you know the non-farm payroll news was deliberately released for whom to hear? 😂 $BTC Nonfarm payrolls 29,000 vs expected 90,000, unemployment rate 4.2%.
This data rubbed traders the wrong way twice:
Before the open, they were still betting "the data is too weak so no rate hike,"
but with data this weak, the rate hike narrative was completely squeezed out.
The 30-year US Treasury yield actually dropped by 2.8 basis points.
The interesting part is that the market is not recovering, it's front-running.
Liquidations of 122 million were all short positions dying upfront, while longs entered later.
I'm only doing one thing here:
Not guessing direction, waiting to see if volatility gives an opportunity.
At the 86,000 level, betting on direction is less reliable than betting on surviving longer. #U.S. Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved
U.S. Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved
On October 1, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield intraday reached 5.34%, the highest since 2002; the 30-year yield rose to 5.69%, also the highest in 24 years. Even though August's PCE was below expectations, buying momentum did not sustain, and yields rose again afterward—the focus of bond market trading is no longer about whether to raise interest rates.
Three structural forces are driving this. The Middle East conflict is pushing up energy inflation, U.S. public debt has surpassed 40 trillion, and AI infrastructure is generating massive private sector financing demand, leading the market to require higher term premiums. A Goldman Sachs trading desk head bluntly stated that long bonds "are still completely ignored." T. Rowe Price economists point out that these forces are structural and will not disappear quickly.
BTC is currently around 85,000-86,000, briefly touching 86,885 before the employment data release, but the 5.34% yield capped the gains. Resistance is at 87,000, support at 84,500. Some positions have stop-losses below 84,000; empty positions should wait for a pullback to stabilize at 85,000 before entering, avoid chasing highs.
Long-term rates have not peaked, risk appetite is hard to recover. What do you think? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $CL crude oil has been received, let's see if it can reach 93. The 88 level for crude oil is indeed strong support, tested multiple times without breaking. As long as there is no major news, it shouldn't fall below this level in the short term. You can trade T back and forth within the 88-93 range!!ZRO suddenly surged over 13% today, with the price reaching around $1.9 at one point.
This time, it’s not just a simple pump. The LayerZero CEO recently revealed that the protocol now processes about $10 billion to $15 billion in cross-chain transaction volume every month. Meanwhile, the open interest (OI) of ZRO perpetual contracts has also risen to approximately $268 million.
Altcoin Buzz
① Why did it rise this wave? I think the core reason is that “protocol data can finally connect with the coin price.”
LayerZero’s biggest problem before was that the project was huge with many partnerships, but the market always asked: With so much cross-chain traffic, what does it have to do with ZRO?
Now, the monthly $10 billion to $15 billion cross-chain volume at least proves the protocol itself is still being actively used, not just supported by a round of airdrop hype.
② But there is also a risk now
$ZRO surged quickly today, and contract OI rose along with it.
This structure indicates that chasing long positions has clearly entered the market.
If the price continues to rise but OI grows faster than spot trading volume, I will start to be cautious because the market can easily shift from spot-driven to leverage-driven, and a crash could trigger a cascade of long liquidations.
③ I won’t chase directly now
It has already surged over 13% today, and chasing longs at this level has mediocre cost-effectiveness. Personal judgment: The US leadership currently does not want interest rate hike expectations to severely impact the stock market and the financing environment for tech companies, nor do they want rapid return of rate cut expectations to cause economic overheating (except Trump likes it).
Therefore, for now, it is necessary to remain cautiously optimistic. There are still many shadows hanging over risk markets, the two most direct and fatal being energy prices and US Treasury bonds.
Crude oil prices depend on the Middle East situation, US Treasuries depend on multiple factors such as energy, inflation, government supply, and Treasury regulation. Without clearing these two shadows, cautious optimism must be maintained.
Just 2 hours after tonight's dovish nonfarm payroll data, long-term bond yields rose again. Facing this environment, risk assets are optimistic under pressure, clearly suppressed, so we still need to wait.
On October 1, the Treasury's repurchase quota for 10-20 year long bonds reached 6 billion, but problems immediately followed. Although the repurchase quota increased, it also triggered more long bond sell orders. Obviously, the Treasury's repurchase is a long-term treatment plan for the long bond market rather than a short-term effective method, so the risk market still needs to endure a period of high interest rate environment! #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Setting aside BCH for now, just the ETH and SOL positions alone could face major adjustments at any time, and you might get liquidated before any "major adjustment" even happens.
The core issue is the 0.29% margin rate.
If ETH and SOL drop just 0.3%, the account goes to zero immediately. ETH's current ATR is about $83, and SOL's intraday volatility often exceeds $2-3; a 0.3% fluctuation happens almost daily, so no "major adjustment" is needed. $ETH $SOL $BCH
ETH: Stuck at resistance, facing a shakeout risk
ETH is currently around $2753, approaching the key Fibonacci 0.382 resistance at $2784. But the MACD histogram is completely zeroed out, bullish momentum driving the rebound is exhausted, volume is very low, and selling pressure clearly dominates.
More importantly, the global retail long-to-short ratio is as high as 2.28, with about 69.5% of retail traders long — historically one of the clearest contrarian signals, as the market tends to liquidate overcrowded longs first. With an ATR of $83, a single-day swing can push ETH down to the strong support at $2640; retail longs will be squeezed and liquidated before the main trend resumes.
SOL: Dense resistance, technical warnings of a pullback
SOL is currently around $120, with resistance between $122.65 and $124.95; a breakout requires volume confirmation. Although ETF inflows are strong, the MACD is at zero and momentum is fading.
SOL long positions are also crowded; Binance top traders hold 64% net longs, retail longs are at 62%, and the liquidation price is near $113 — meaning a roughly 6% pullback would trigger cascading liquidations of full accounts.
Macro perspective
The probability of a Fed rate hike in October has dropped to about 25%, which is a short-term positive. However, the upcoming US employment report could reignite rate hike expectations if the data beats forecasts. The crypto market, as a high-beta asset, is highly sensitive.
The greed index remains high at 71, indicating a greedy market sentiment, but futures open interest has declined during the sideways phase, signaling quiet deleveraging, often a precursor to a big move.
These two positions face an imminent short-term shakeout; the 0.29% margin rate means any small spike can wipe everything out. Current technicals show momentum exhaustion, retail overcrowding, and pending macro data, so the probability of an upward breakout is not favorable.
Feeling far away and unreachable
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Without a single operator, Ethereum is one of the hardest assets to price.
When governments and institutions choose digital infrastructure, they often worry about service providers shutting down, regional outages, unilateral rule changes, or account revocations. Ethereum has no operating company that can shut down the entire network; protocol changes require coordination among multiple client teams, validators, and community participants. This makes upgrade speed and responsibility boundaries more complex than traditional cloud services but reduces the risk of putting all continuity in a single company. Neutrality does not mean no governance, nor does it mean no one is subject to legal and front-end restrictions; it means the underlying rules and state cannot be arbitrarily rewritten by a single commercial entity. For the long-term logic of $ETH, this public coordination capability is harder to replicate than a single quarter's trading volume. Only when institutions truly put settlement, identity, or registration processes on-chain and retain verifiable exit paths will neutrality translate into utility rather than remain just marketing material.
This structure also requires users to bear more self-verification responsibility. There is no customer service line to modify the underlying history; this is both the source of neutrality and the cost that mistakes cannot be easily undone. Value and responsibility are two sides of the same coin.
The cost of neutrality is slower coordination, but this cost also buys the right of choice. 📊 Nonfarm payrolls are just surface data; the real focus should be on the bond market.
If the latest employment data is weaker than expected, it may temporarily ease market concerns about interest rates and provide some support for BTC.
However, if U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, liquidity and risk assets may still face pressure.
So, rather than just watching the nonfarm numbers, it's better to first observe the direction of yields, then judge the next moves for BTC and ETH.
🔎 First look at U.S. Treasury yields → then BTC → finally ETH
The market doesn't react to just one data point; what really matters are changes in funding costs and liquidity.
$BTC $ETH
#NFP #Bitcoin #Ethereum
#USTreasuryYields #CryptoMarket
#BitcoinMarket #Ethereum🔥 Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 (expected about 90,000), $BTC immediately surged about 3.4%, approaching 87,000
⚡ Short positions liquidated about $270 million, longs lost only about $90 million, $ETH surged near 2,750
⏰ But 87,000 to 87,500 has been the ceiling for the past two weeks; can it break through in one go this time?
📍 Data review
· Unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, August payrolls revised down to 133,000, July revised to negative 10,000
· 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to about 5.18%, October rate hike probability fell to about 12% to 16%
· Gold rose about 1% to near 4,219, US stocks opened lower then rose, Nasdaq led gains
📊 Morning scenario confirmed: data below expectations → rate hike expectations cooled → BTC rebounded, shorts squeezed out
🎯 Key levels
BTC upper side 87,000 to 87,500, lower side 82,000; ETH upper side 2,740 to 2,800, lower side 2,635 to 2,660
Note: Short-term includes short covering, which does not equal spot buying support; need to watch if ETF funds and volume sustain.
Will BTC break above 87,500 in one go this time, or be pushed back again
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% 🔥 Great news from the non-farm payrolls, but this time I'm actually more cautious!
Non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, rate cut expectations are heating up, and the big brother once surged near 87300.
But what’s really worth watching is whether the rally can continue after the good news.
🟠 BTC: 87300 remains a previous high resistance; if it can't break through, watch for a pullback after the spike.
🔵 ETH: currently around 2718, rising along, but ETFs actually saw an outflow of about 55.37 million yesterday, with clear resistance near 2750.
🟢 SOL: currently about 121.35, also rising, but ETFs outflowed about 5.91 million, funds have not fully returned yet.
So now is not the time to simply call a bull market.
BTC eyes 87300, ETH eyes 2750, SOL eyes 125.
Good news lights the fire, funds keep it alive.
Don’t let FOMO trade for you; follow the breakout, wait if it can’t break through.
The above is just my personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Mr. Xinjiang Sugar-Free's 8th Basket (Today's 2nd Basket)
4213 Kong, 4190 exit, drop band 23 Dian 2375 oil
Keep a calm heart, take the ups and downs of the world lightly. Walk the path of kindness with your feet on the ground, accept gains and losses as fate, and peace is the best homecoming
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Just saw some on-chain data, quite interesting. A big player, on September 4th, withdrew over 140,000 $HYPE at a price of 86.15, worth 12.3 million dollars. Today, suddenly recharged 71,000 of them into the exchange at a price of 91.26, worth 6.48 million dollars.
If he dumps all of this wave, he is expected to make 362,000 dollars in profit.
Honestly, brothers, I did the math on this deal and found it a bit interesting. Buying at 86 and selling at 91, the increase is less than 6%. After almost a month of fussing, for a whale with tens of millions in capital, this rate of return is kind of a small gain, right?
The key point is that on-chain data shows he also opened a position of 6.99 million dollars in ETHFI on September 29th, which makes people speculate: is he taking profits on HYPE to move funds into ETHFI for a push? Or does he simply think HYPE has peaked in the short term and wants to lock in profits first? Also, he withdrew 140,000 tokens before but only recharged half back now, obviously testing in batches.
To be honest, recharging 6.48 million dollars worth of assets directly into the exchange is quite a selling pressure. Although a profit of over 360,000 dollars is not a huge gain compared to a principal of over 10 million, this move will definitely affect market sentiment.Earnings are written on the page, but whose pocket does the money actually go into, meow 🐱?
For $SLX, I first look at staking rewards and coin price separately.
The official website's first round of staking states a 20% target annualized return—note, it's a target, not a guaranteed minimum.
Even if you receive rewards, a drop in coin price could wipe out the gains.
So I'm more concerned about where the rewards come from and whether anyone will stay after it ends; you can't just look at the annualized figure and think it's cheap.
Only products that can retain funds are worth continued tracking.
For $RE, there is solid business progress.
On September 29, it was disclosed that the combined scale of two deposit tokens exceeded $300 million, with an increase of $116 million over 45 days starting August 9.
With more funds, insurance partners have greater capacity to undertake reinsurance business, but claims performance must also be considered.
It's important to distinguish that RE is a governance token and does not directly enjoy premium, income, or dividend rights.
Business expansion is worth noting, but you can't treat deposit product yields as money you get just by buying RE.
What $BICO does can be understood as helping on-chain operations save steps.
Its smart batch processing tool can pass the actual amount obtained in the previous step to the next step without hardcoding each number in advance.
For example, after swapping coins and then depositing into an app, even if the amount changes, it can continue executing according to rules.
This solves usage hassle, not creating yield out of thin air.
I will watch how many applications continue to adopt it and how many paid calls it brings, then judge whether this business is scaling.A while ago, I checked the market again
Took a quick look and then closed it
$BTC is still the same
Goes up for two days, down for three days
It was $BTC that first got me into this
Back then, I knew nothing
Heard people say just hold on
But when I held, it dropped
When I sold, it slowly went up again
Later, I also bought $ETH
After buying, it just sideways traded
So sideways it made me yawn
Made a little from a takeout meal and ran
After I left, it moved a bit again
Saying I don’t regret it would be a lie
Then I got into $SOL
That was the longest trap
Every day I opened my account it was red
So red I started doubting myself
The day I broke even, I sold immediately
After selling, it surged a bit
I smiled a little
Closed the app
Now I only play with spare money
No contracts
No borrowing
No following tips
If I earn, I treat myself well
If I lose, I take it as tuition
I check at most twice a day
Sleeping well at night is better than anything
This isn’t a path for ordinary people to get rich quick
Just treat it as a high-risk hobby
Don’t put your life on the line#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Tonight, for the first time since the beginning of August, ZEC has entered a sustained downtrend on the 12- and 18-hour timeframes. This looks quite unusual against the backdrop of a strong market. BUT it's actually not unusual at all considering our analysis of the asset's picture on higher timeframes, which we did on September 19. First, a brief reminder, and at the end - a new analysis. Spoiler - we expect a noticeable rebound and then further decline. Back then, we wrote that from late September to early October, we expect the start of a long-term correction. Literally, the post from September 19, mainAMOD surged about 206% in one day to around 3.58, with Bitcoin PIPE dumping pressure; I’m not chasing it for now.
Observed: US stock daily K opened around 3.47, high about 4.77, low about 3.40, currently about 3.58, up about 206% relative to yesterday’s close of 1.17, with a volume of about 154 million shares, extremely volatile.
Same day catalyst: Alpha Modus completed a Bitcoin-denominated PIPE, receiving about 3,170 BTC (valued at over $250 million at approximately $83,600 per BTC), claiming shareholder equity has returned above $200 million and Nasdaq compliance restored.
Simply put: This is an extreme bullish candle driven by “crypto-denominated capital injection + compliance narrative,” not because the company suddenly earned a lot more today, nor should it be treated as a normal small-cap stock behavior.
I think short-term chasing this spike is unwise—the intraday spike to about 4.77 then fell back, a huge price gap; optimistic expectations are already priced in, and Nasdaq’s subsequent monitoring must be watched.
My approach: just observe without chasing highs, wait for volatility to converge or a pullback before reconsidering.
If invalidated, watch for a break below today’s low of about 3.40 to continue down, or stabilize above about 4.77 before discussing whether to follow.
Are you waiting for a pullback and compliance monitoring to settle before acting, or do you think the $250 million BTC capital injection is solid enough to jump in directly?
$AMOD $BTC $MSTR
#US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously saw outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm$XRP is around $1.527, up 2.19%, with $70.36M displayed volume. I’m watching $1.51–1.52 for a pullback and potential support flip. If buyers defend that area and reclaim $1.54 with stronger volume, I’d consider continuation. Entry: $1.515–1.54. SL: $1.49. TP1: $1.56, TP2: $1.59, TP3: $1.63, TP4: $1.68. R:R can reach roughly 1:5+. If $1.49 breaks and price accepts below it, I’m out. The momentum is good, but I still want the retest to confirm that buyers are defending the move.With the market struggling, I started thinking about another way to earn through creator rewards and use that income to keep myself going after taking some serious trading losses. During this period, I kept trying to short $ZEC: $400 → $800 $800 → $1,200 $1,200 → $1,600 Every time I thought I had finally found the top, the market proved me wrong. 😅 At $800, I thought, “This has to be the top.” Then I shorted again around $1,200… And somehow, ZEC pushed all the way toward $1,600. Now it has pullGRASS surged too aggressively earlier, so the early miners basically have almost no cost on their chips, making a big profit and just waiting for the market hype to peak before selling out.
Now the hype around AI is almost over, and there isn't much new money coming in from outside to support the current price level. A bunch of profit-taking chips are waiting to escape, which creates downward pressure on the price.Brothers, did this sharp drop today scare a bunch of people again? I, Ergou, combined the news and market situation to give everyone an analysis:
1. Macro gives the bottom card: good news was "wrongly sold off"
Chart 3 shows the nonfarm payroll data bombed explosively (only increased by 29,000, unemployment rate soared to 4.2%). What does bad data mean? Economic pressure, Fed rate cut expectations hit the max! This is definitely a long-term liquidity positive. But short-term funds use macro recession expectations to smash the market and wash out positions, which is a classic tactic of the main force.
2. The truth about funds: just "taking a smoke break"
Chart 2 news shouts ETF outflows and cooling funds, causing panic. Look at what Pharaoh said — "Funds just took a smoke break at the door." After so many days of gains, profit-taking and withdrawal is normal; this is not a mass exodus, but a phase of consolidation.
3. Technical ironclad evidence: extremely oversold, rebound imminent
Look at Chart 1 and Chart 4, $BTC (85513) and ETH (2703) 15-minute lines both sharply dropped. Notice the RSI indicator: BTC's RSI6 dropped to 19.2, $ETH dropped to 17.79! Both entered the extremely oversold zone (<20). Severely deviated from moving averages in the short term, technical rebound demand is extremely strong.
Ergou's summary:
Macro is positive, funds are faking a fall, technicals are oversold — the three resonate. This drop is definitely not to make you panic sell, but to pick up those who are empty-handed! Do not chase shorts in the short term, patiently wait for a 15-minute level rebound repair, hold your spot positions firmly, and buy in batches on dips. $BTC is currently still fluctuating around $84K, and the real volatility window may only open after tonight's US employment data release.
This time, don't just focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Wage growth, unemployment rate, and revisions to previous data are also worth watching, as they could all influence the market's judgment on the Fed's future interest rate path. The more the data deviates from expectations, the more pronounced BTC's short-term volatility might be.
$LINK: Ecological cooperation and institutional layout are worth attention, but the market will ultimately return to fundamentals—whether these partnerships can bring actual revenue, network usage, and sustained LINK demand.
$BICO: The current trend remains weak. Rather than chasing the first wave of rebound, I am more focused on whether trading volume expands again and if the price can complete a second breakout and hold above key resistance levels. Once confirmation signals appear, the market structure will be more worth observing.
Next key focus: macro data → interest rate expectations → US dollar trend → BTC volatility → altcoin capital rotation.
#BTC #LINK #BICO #NFP #Crypto #Bitcoin #AnthropicEyesNovIPOThe pullback is finally unfolding, with price now moving back toward key trend areas. As expected, long positions are getting flushed out, and the leverage cleanup is becoming increasingly visible. The warning signs were there before the move—momentum was stretched, positioning was crowded, and a cooling-off phase was becoming more likely. Now the important question is whether this correction remains controlled or develops into a deeper retracement. For me, the key is simple: watch the reaction MAGIC rose about 15%, while contract open interest increased by nearly 60%.
As of 22:08 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $0.06001, with a 24-hour high of $0.06333 and a low of $0.052, amplitude about 21.8%; the current price is about 5.2% below the high, with a trading volume of about $1.49 million.
OKEx daily chart shows the median trading volume over the past 7 full trading days is about $413,000, which has expanded about 3.6 times in this round. Hourly statistics at the latest available point (17:00) show that the nominal value of open interest rose from about $441,000 24 hours ago to about $703,000, an increase of about 59.3%; the current funding rate is about 0.005%, and the perpetual contract discount is about 0.20%.
My judgment is that leveraged funds have indeed followed the rise, but the funding rate has not warmed up correspondingly, so it cannot yet be said that the bulls are already overcrowded on one side. The easiest misjudgment is to equate increased open interest directly with new longs; it may also include contrarian shorts or hedging positions.
Next, pay attention to $0.06333 and $0.05216. If the previous high is broken and open interest continues to grow, and the funding rate rises rapidly, chasing the rally will become significantly more crowded; if it falls back below $0.05216 while open interest remains high, the risk will shift to concentrated liquidation.
$MAGIC ⚠️ $BTC's sideways movement never means calm — sometimes, the narrower the range, the more it accumulates explosive power.
Currently, BTC is compressed within the $85.5K–$86.8K range, while open interest (OI) remains at recent highs, with leverage in the market continuously building up.
What to watch for next might be two liquidity sweeps:
1️⃣ First, kill the longs — break below $85.2K to clear chasing and high-leverage long positions.
2️⃣ Then, sweep the shorts — break above $87K to trigger short stop losses and liquidations.
3️⃣ The real directional choice — after liquidity on both sides is cleared, the trend signal may become clearer.
📌 Core idea: Don’t rush to bet within the range to avoid becoming "fuel" for liquidity. Instead of guessing the first move, wait for the market to complete two-way liquidation and then observe the structure.
Do you think the next move will be a long liquidation below $85.2K or a short squeeze above $87K? 👇It was sitting around $0.40 earlier, then suddenly exploded toward $0.55. Today’s high reached about $0.5588, with roughly 14% gains over 24 hours. So I decided not to chase the breakout. Instead, around $0.5443, I opened a short and started watching the $0.55–$0.56 zone closely. The 30-minute chart looks strong. After spending a long time around $0.40, CT pushed toward $0.48, consolidated, and then launched another aggressive bullish candle. And this is exactly where market psychology gets inteThe most common mistake with $SAND right now:
After it rises for a while, people think it's time to short.
But my market feeling today is exactly the opposite.
At this current position, I haven't seen any particularly comfortable short signals yet.
Rather than guessing the top prematurely, I prefer to wait for a pullback.
If after the pullback the 15-minute chart quickly recovers, and the candlestick doesn't suddenly show an exaggerated long upper shadow, then a short-term small swing trade following the momentum can be considered.
But one thing is very important:
Don't blindly buy just because you see a pullback.
If the 15-minute chart suddenly shows a particularly long candlestick with a clearly extended upper shadow, then it's a completely different story.
At times like this, the biggest fear is:
Just thinking "buy on the dip,"
and the next second it turns into a failed rally.
Today I made 5 long trades in total, accumulating over 300 in profit.
But now I won't increase my position to bet on direction just because I made money today.
The most important thing in short-term trading is not to catch every big move.
It's:
Trade less when you don't understand,
and act only when signals appear.
So for $SAND, I’m mainly watching two things next:
Whether the pullback is supported
Whether the 15-minute candlestick shows a clear rally and then a fall
If neither of these signals appear, I’m still not in a hurry to short.
What do you think $SAND will do next?
Will it first pull back then rally, or directly surge to a new high?
#SAND #Crypto #TradingDiary #Add $SOL is around $121.47, up 2.58%, with $140.02M displayed volume. I’m watching $120–121 as the retest zone after the current push. If buyers defend it and reclaim $122.50 with stronger volume, I’d consider a continuation long. Entry: $120.50–122.50. SL: $118.20. TP1: $124, TP2: $127, TP3: $130, TP4: $135. R:R can reach roughly 1:5+. If $118.20 breaks, I’m out. Momentum is useful, but I don’t want to chase a 2.5% move. The pullback needs to show buyers are actually defending the breakout area.